/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR

/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/141014.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R E U R O P E Tuesday, October 14, 2014, Vol. 15, No. 203 Headlines A L B A N I A ALBANIA REPUBLIC: S&P Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms B Rating A U S T R I A RAIFFEISEN BANK: Moody's Affirms D+ Financial Strength Rating B E L A R U S BELARUS REPUBLIC: S&P Affirms 'B-' Sovereign Credit Ratings F R A N C E CONSTELLIUM NV: S&P Puts 'BB-' CCR on CreditWatch Negative PEUGEOT SA: Fitch Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B+' IDR G E R M A N Y PROVENTUS EUROPEAN: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Ratings on 2 Note Classes G R E E C E GLITNIR BANK: Iceland Nears Bank Creditor Deal, Gudmundsson Says GREECE: Needs Precautionary Credit Line, IMF Head Says I R E L A N D ANDERSON VALLEY II: S&P Cuts Ratings on 3 Note Classes to 'D' L A T V I A TRASTA KOMERCBANKA: Moody's Withdraws 'E+' Fin'l Strength Rating L U X E M B O U R G ALTICE SA: S&P Assigns 'B+' Corp. Credit Rating; Outlook Stable N E T H E R L A N D S DECO 14 - PAN EUROPE: S&P Affirms 'D' Ratings on 4 Note Classes E-MAC PROGRAM 2007-I: S&P Lowers Rating on Class D Notes to 'B' P O R T U G A L BANCO ESPIRITO: Novo Banco May Struggle to Attract EUR4.9BB Bid PORTUGAL: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Issuer Default Rating; Outlook Pos. R U S S I A DZERZHINSK CITY: S&P Raises ICR to 'BB-' on Prudent Debt Policies KALUGA REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating LIPETSK REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating ORENBURG REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR; Outlook Stable OTP BANK: Moody's Lowers Long-Term Deposit Ratings to 'Ba3' TULA REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating VORONEZH REGION: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT Issuer Default Rating S E R B I A SERBIA REPUBLIC: S&P Puts 'BB-' Rating on CreditWatch Negative S P A I N AYT GENOVA VIII: Moody's Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'B2' AYT GENOVA X: Fitch Affirms 'Bsf' Rating on Class D Notes BANCO GRUPO: Fitch Affirms & Withdraws 'BB+' Long-Term IDR CAJA INGENIEROS 2: Moody's Hikes Rating on EUR67.5MM Notes to Ba1 TRANSHOTEL: Enters Three-Month Voluntary Administration Period U K R A I N E CREATIVE GROUP: Fitch Lowers Issuer Default Rating to 'CC' KYIV CITY: Moody's Affirms 'Caa3' Issuer & Sr. Unsecured Ratings KYIV CITY: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Issuer Default Rating; Outlook Neg. UKRAINE: S&P Raises National Scale Ratings From 'uaBB+' VAB BANK: Moody's Puts 'Caa3' Rating on Review for Downgrade U N I T E D K I N G D O M DTZ UK GUARANTOR: Moody's Assigns 'B2' Corporate Family Rating HONOURS PLC: Fitch Affirms 'BBsf' Rating on Class D Notes PUNCH TAVERN A: Fitch Withdraws 'D' Ratings on 7 Note Classes PUNCH TAVERN B: Fitch Withdraws 'D' Ratings on 3 Note Classes RANGERS FOOTBALL: Mike Ashley Calls for Removal of Two Bosses X X X X X X X X * Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets ********* ============= A L B A N I A ============= ALBANIA REPUBLIC: S&P Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms B Rating ---------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on the Republic of Albania to positive from stable. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B/B' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Albania. RATIONALE The outlook revision reflects S&P's projection that Albania's general government deficit is set to shrink to 2% of GDP by 2017. S&P has also slightly adjusted its growth forecast upward for 2015 and 2016. S&P could revise up its assessment of the government's fiscal performance if Albania meets S&P's deficit estimates. At the same time, the new government in office since fall 2013 is moving forward on its ambitious reform agenda, aiming to strengthen fiscal institutions and public sector financial management, and mitigate fiscal risks. After recently passing a pension reform, the government now faces the key task of shaping a comprehensive energy sector reform over the coming months. The agreed arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early 2014 provides the government with a policy anchor for needed reforms, while supporting its financing needs. Still, S&P has maintained its assumption that net general government debt will start to decline relative to GDP, decreasing to 61% by 2017 from 66% in 2015. S&P continues to consider Albania's current net debt at 66% of GDP as high, but near-term refinancing pressures have abated somewhat, in S&P's view. Further efforts and a sustained track record of tackling structural reforms, particularly in strengthening of property rights and rule of law, could over time prompt S&P to improve its assessment of weaknesses in institutional and governance effectiveness. Weak rule of law and widespread corruption continue to weigh on the business climate, and unresolved real estate property rights can be a deterrent for foreign investors. S&P thinks Albania is increasingly committed to structural reforms, especially in its legal system, after the EU decided in June 2014 to grant EU candidate status to Albania. Moreover, making inroads on reforms should help to unlock Albania's growth potential. S&P expects real GDP growth to pick up to 2% in 2014 -- after a sharp dip to just 0.4% in 2013 -- on the back of sound export performance and supported by the government's clearance of arrears. With domestic demand slowly recovering, S&P expects growth to accelerate to an average of 3.9% in 2015-2017. The primary growth engine will likely be exports -- mainly textiles, along with minerals and fuels -- over the next several years. In addition, S&P expects investment, fuelled by high foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 2015-2017, to further strengthen Albania's export potential. S&P projects significant net FDI inflows, especially into extractive industries (for example, minerals and oil) and related to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project. FDI inflows will likely fund most of Albania's large current account deficit, which S&P projects will widen until 2016 and then improve slightly thereafter. Remittances, on the other hand, have declined significantly in recent years due to Albania's close economic links with Greece and Italy, where substantial Albanian populations reside. S&P projects remittances to remain sizable but subdued in the area of 7% of GDP in the next few years. While gross external financing needs are significant, Albania's external indebtedness is relatively low. S&P foresees narrow net external debt improving markedly to well below 10% of current account receipts over S&P's 2014-2017 forecast horizon. General government debt has increased noticeably, with the recognition of arrears of 5.3% of GDP in 2013. The government is progressing decisively with regard to the arrears clearance process, in S&P's opinion, and could accelerate the process once agreed oversight and auditing mechanisms are in place. S&P projects that the general government deficit will decrease to below 5% of GDP in 2015, including clearance of arrears worth slightly below 2% of GDP, and then drop to 2% of GDP in 2017, at which point all arrears will have been cleared. S&P anticipates that several measures to increase tax revenues will support the 2015 budget, as was the case in 2014, including the recently passed value-added tax (VAT) law effective from January 2015. S&P nevertheless continues to assess the government's revenue raising ability as constrained by tax collection weaknesses and the large informal sector in Albania. That said, S&P thinks budget consolidation is on track in the first eight months of 2014. The cash deficit is significantly better than targeted, underpinned by above-budget revenues (for instance, on VAT), and owing to lower-than-planned capital expenditures. S&P anticipates, however, some pick-up in capital spending between now and year-end 2014. On the back of narrowing deficits -- and resumed economic Growth -- S&P forecasts that net general government debt will decrease to 61% of GDP by 2017 from the current 66%. General government interest payments will likely average approximately 13% of revenues in 2014-2017. The government has extended its average debt maturity, but it remains short -- at about 580 days currently -- for the domestic portion of debt, which accounts for about 60% of total debt. S&P continues to consider links between the sovereign, banks, and investment funds as potentially risk-bearing for the government's refinancing ability because the Albanian banking system holds the largest share of domestic debt and over one-third of total banking system assets are government securities. The high level of nonperforming loans in the financial sector -- at 24% of total loans in first-quarter 2014 (based on IMF data)-- also hampers lending and slows economic recovery. Measures aiming to reduce non-performing loans, in conjunction with renewed demand for loans as uncertainties diminish, could help turn around the negative trend in credit growth. S&P projects that the financial sector will remain in a small net external creditor position over the next few years. The estimated loan-to-deposit ratio is about 55%, and capital buffers in the banking system are well above minimum capital requirements. While the sector's net external creditor position and low loan-to-deposit ratio point to sizable liquidity in the system, the continuous net export of deposits out of Albania since 2008, rather than being employed domestically, also represents a drag on Albania's economy. Monetary flexibility benefits from the adjustment buffer provided by Albania's floating exchange rate. However, the high share of foreign currency loans and deposits, like for most of Albania's Balkan peers, is hindering the effectiveness of the Bank of Albania's monetary policy. Still, S&P anticipates that current personnel replacement processes at the central bank, notably the removal of long-standing governor Ardian Fullani on charges of negligence, will not undermine the bank's independence and effectiveness. OUTLOOK The positive outlook reflects the possibility that S&P could raise the ratings on Albania over the next 12 months if steady fiscal consolidation reduces general government deficits further during the period. A resumption in real GDP growth, supported by the government's ongoing structural reform efforts, particularly in the areas of energy, the judiciary, property rights, and rule of law, could also support an upgrade. S&P could revise the outlook to stable if: -- Albania's refinancing risks re-emerged or its commitment to and compliance with the IMF program were called into question; or -- Growth indicators weakened or debt relative to GDP continued to rise markedly over the next 12 months. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee agreed that all key rating factors were unchanged. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. RATINGS LIST Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action To From Albania (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating B/Positive/B B/Stable/B Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB- Senior Unsecured B ============= A U S T R I A ============= RAIFFEISEN BANK: Moody's Affirms D+ Financial Strength Rating ------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Raiffeisen Bank International AG's (RBI) A3 long-term debt and deposit ratings with negative outlook. At the same time, it affirmed RBI's standalone D+ bank financial strength rating (BFSR), corresponding to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba1 and changed the outlook to negative from stable. Moody's also affirmed RBI's subordinated debt ratings at Baa3 with negative outlook, as well as the bank's short-term Prime-2 debt and deposit ratings. These rating actions were triggered by RBI's profit warning on September 22, 2014. RBI's announcement highlights the potential for lower earnings and capital generation over the medium term from key markets in Eastern Europe. Such declines will hurt the group's ability to withstand further volatility in these markets and diminish its resilience against related tail risk. Moody's also affirmed the Baa1 long-term deposit ratings and issuer rating on Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG (RZB), RBI's parent company, as well as certain backed ratings that benefit from an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee from RBI, such that RBI's ratings pass through to the eligible securities. The outlook for these ratings remains negative. The rating agency also affirmed RZB's short-term Prime-2 deposit ratings. Ratings Rationale --- AFFIRMATION OF RBI'S BFSR WITH NEGATIVE OUTLOOK The affirmation of RBI's D+ standalone BFSR reflects (1) the moderate asset quality of the bank's exposures in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and (2) its still satisfactory capitalization relative to the increased risks from the bank's Russian and Ukrainian activities. The outlook change to negative from stable reflects the increase in RBI's tail risks, given the bank's significant exposure to the more volatile operating environments in CEE and the CIS, as well as the possibility of lower earnings and capital generation over the medium term. RBI's recently revised earnings outlook highlights the economic challenges the bank is facing in some of these countries, as a result of which RBI expects, for the first time, a net loss for fiscal year 2014. Overall, Moody's expects RBI's earnings strength to weaken over the medium term. Given the economic difficulties in its key markets, a decline in earnings could diminish RBI's capacity to withstand a prolonged period of economic weakness or to preserve or build up sufficient financial buffers against unforeseen shocks and tail events in those markets. As a result of its expected net loss in 2014, RBI's fully loaded Basel III common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which it had reported at 10.4% at end-June 2014, is likely to decline between 5 and 20 basis points, which is, however, still in line with the ratios of its similarly rated peers. The recent repayment of the private investor tranche of outstanding participation capital diminishes RBI's overall loss absorption capacity but does not affect the regulatory fully loaded CET1 capital ratio. --- AFFIRMATION OF RBI'S AND RZB'S LONG-TERM RATINGS The affirmation of RBI's A3 long-term ratings with negative outlook follows the affirmation of its D+ BFSR. Based on Moody's unchanged support assumptions, RBI's long-term ratings still benefit from two notches of sector support uplift from Raiffeisen Bankengruppe Austria (RBG; unrated) and two notches of systemic support uplift from the bank's ba1 standalone BCA, based on the rating agency's current assumptions of a high likelihood of Austrian government support. The negative outlook for RBI's long-term debt and deposit ratings reflects (1) the negative outlook for RBI's standalone credit assessment, as well as (2) the possibility that adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) regulation in the EU will have negative consequences for Austrian banks' creditors. The negative outlook for RBI's subordinated debt ratings also reflects Moody's view about RBG's constrained capacity to extend capital support to all of its group members in the event of stress. The affirmation of RZB's long-term ratings with negative outlook follows the affirmation of RBI's long-term ratings. RZB's long- term senior ratings are notched off RBI's and incorporate the structural subordination of the senior obligations of the holding company, RZB, to those of its major operating entity, RBI. What Could Change The Rating -- UP/DOWN An upgrade to either RBI's or RZB's ratings is unlikely, as the negative outlooks indicate. A downgrade to RBI's standalone D+ BSFR is possible if further deterioration in its Russian and Ukrainian activities lead to (1) substantial additional credit charges beyond those Moody's currently expects; (2) an extended period of further declining earnings and internal capital generation; or (3) a decline in capitalization and regulatory capital. A downgrade to RBI's long-term ratings could result from (1) a weakening of RBI's intrinsic financial strength; (2) the lack of a credible credit strengthening plan for the 'Raiffeisen' sector in Austria and the potential impact on RBI; and (3) a decline in the prospects for systemic support in Austria and in the EU, in light of developments associated with resolution mechanisms and burden-sharing for European banks. A downgrade to RZB's long-term ratings could result from a downgrade to RBI's long-term debt and deposit ratings. In addition, wider notching between RZB's rating and RBI's rating could result from (1) any incidence of double leverage at the holding company or (2) a multi-notch downgrade or series of downgrades to RBI's ratings to the lower investment-grade range. List of Affected Ratings The following ratings of RBI were affirmed: -- Standalone BFSR at D+, equivalent to a BCA of ba1, with negative outlook (formerly stable) -- Long-term debt and deposits ratings at A3 with negative outlook -- Subordinate debt ratings at Baa3 with negative outlook -- Short-term debt and deposit ratings at Prime-2 The following ratings of RZB were affirmed: -- Long-term deposits ratings and issuer rating at Baa1 with negative outlook -- Backed senior unsecured debt ratings at A3 with negative outlook -- Backed subordinated debt ratings at Baa3 with negative outlook -- Backed preferred security notes at Ba2(hyb) issued by two funding trusts, RZB Finance (Jersey) III Limited and RZB Finance (Jersey) IV Limited with negative outlook -- Short-term deposit ratings at Prime-2 Principal Methodology The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in July 2014. ============= B E L A R U S ============= BELARUS REPUBLIC: S&P Affirms 'B-' Sovereign Credit Ratings ----------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Belarus. The outlook is stable. Rationale S&P's ratings on Belarus are constrained by its view of low institutional predictability and effectiveness, high government financing needs, and very high reliance on external funding. S&P's view of the government's high foreign currency refinancing needs by year-end 2014 as well as in 2015, alongside the possibility of expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policies in the run-up to the presidential elections in 2015, also detracts from Belarus' creditworthiness. However, the country's relatively high GDP per capita and a highly educated workforce support the ratings. Belarus also benefits from the government's demonstrated commitment to post balanced budgets and its relatively low debt. In S&P's view, policy predictability is weak in Belarus. Final decision-making is in the hands of the president, who controls all branches of power. The president's administration controls all strategic decisions and sets the policy agenda, whereas the government is a technocratic body that implements his decisions. S&P considers accountability, checks, and balances to be weak. Heavy dependence on Russia for financial, economic, and political support also poses risks for Belarus, in S&P's opinion. Some policy effectiveness exists, however, as shown by a relatively high ranking on the U.N.'s human development index. Belarus' GDP per capita, estimated at $7,591 for 2013, is high compared with that of peers. This is partly thanks to relatively high human capital reflected in high human development indicators and past rapid growth of the Belarusian industrial sector, namely machinery, which relies heavily on the external demand from fellow members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. However, despite the government's efforts to boost consumption and investment, Belarus' economic performance has been weak since 2012, especially compared with the period of rapid economic growth in the 2000s. S&P believes that the weak external environment (particularly in Russia and Ukraine), weak price competitiveness, and the lack of progress in reforms will continue to structurally suppress economic growth in the next three to four years. Despite a moderate acceleration of growth in the first eight months of 2014 to 1.5% (against 0.9% in 2013), S&P do not expect GDP growth rates to exceed 2% on average between 2015 and 2017. Belarus has consistently been in a large net external liability position. By S&P's estimates, it will likely stay above 100% of current account receipts (CARs) over the next three to four years. At the same time, net external debt will likely exceed 70% by 2017, from 53% in 2013. External financing pressure remains a key credit constraint for Belarus. S&P expects the current account deficit to average about 6% of GDP in 2014-2017. This is notwithstanding the ongoing depreciation of the Belarusian ruble, which in S&P's view, will not be sufficient to substantially improve the competiveness of Belarusian goods among its key trading partners. S&P also expects a slightly lower current transfer deficit, following the May 2014 agreement between Russia and Belarus on the lower size of oil-refinery-export duties Belarus pays to the Russian budget from 2015. Belarus is a member of the Eurasian customs union along with Kazakhstan, with the plan to gradually phase out export duties between member states. In addition to the current account deficit, the country is going through a peak in its external government debt service. Belarus' obligations total about 4.5% of GDP in 2014 (with 3.4% already repaid in Jan.-Sept.) and will likely remain high at 4% in 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2014 and in 2015, about 25% of debt service is accounted for by a Eurobond, and another 12% by the International Monetary Fund. Government debt in foreign currency makes up almost 90% of the total. S&P estimates Belarus' gross external financing needs at 145% of CARs plus usable reserves, on average, for 2014-2017. According to S&P's estimates, the country's international reserves will likely cover only about one month of current account payments on average through year-end 2017, compared with 1.5 months at year- end 2013. For this forecast, we exclude from reserves about $2 billion in foreign currency swaps that the National Bank of Belarus owes to commercial banks. Despite the arrival of the US$2 billion official long-term loan from Russia in the first nine months of 2014, Belarus still has to refinance or repay US$0.75 billion by the year's end, and US$3 billion in 2015 (excluding interest payments, for which the central government budgets). With very slow progress on the government's privatization program, foreign-currency-denominated debt repayment plans for the rest of 2014 rely on domestic bonds and the final tranche of a loan from the Anti-Crisis Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community. In 2015, we understand that the government intends to apply fiscal consolidation measures, which would save US$2 billion. However, in S&P's view, these plans might be constrained by election-spending pressures and weaker revenues due to lower export duties and weaker profits of the oil-refinery industry expected in 2015. In this context, the issuance of foreign currency debt in the domestic market (which Belarus started in 2013 and continued in 2014) and, more importantly, the timely arrival of adequate support from the Russian Federation, will likely represent a more realistic refinancing scenario. S&P highlights that, so far, the track-record of such support has been positive. The Belarusian government's stance on general government headline balance has been strong. General government accounts have posted moderate surpluses since 2011. Nevertheless, due to off-budget support for state-owned enterprises and state banks, general government debt increased by an average 4% of GDP annually, except in 2011, when the currency depreciated 178% against the dollar. As a result of further currency weakness and off-budget support, S&P expects the government's debt to increase by about four percentage points of GDP by 2017, but to remain below a relatively low 30% of GDP. According to S&P's criteria, it estimates contingent liabilities from the banking system, the state-owned enterprises that produce more than 50% of GDP and which the government is willing to support if necessary, and government-guaranteed debt as moderate. In S&P's view, the national bank has the complex challenge of encouraging both growth and price stability. In the first eight months of 2014, the monetary policy track record continued to be weak. The national bank lowered the policy rate and reserve requirements for banks. In the context of ongoing gradual devaluation, raising of excises, and administrative price liberalization, this has resulted in a consumer price index that already exceeded the official annual limit of 11% in July 2014. Assuming a continuation of this trend, S&P believes that the willingness of the government to stimulate economic growth and continue with directed lending will keep inflation in Belarus in the double digits through 2017. Despite the national bank's recent measures to contain foreign currency lending, weak transmission channels continue to translate into high dollarization of loans and deposits in the banking system. The share of both exceeded 55% of the total as of Sept. 1, 2014. Lending in foreign currency heightens the banking system's exposure to exchange rate risk and could increase the country's contingent liabilities, particularly if combined with deterioration of asset quality. OUTLOOK The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that despite weak external liquidity and an inflexible monetary policy, Belarus' government will likely secure refinancing by issuing debt on domestic markets and receiving timely financial support from the Russian Federation. S&P could take a negative rating action on Belarus if delays in support from the Russian Federation or capital market conditions impede the government's plans to refinance, especially in the absence of alternative debt-repayment scenarios. S&P could also lower the ratings if, in the run-up to the presidential elections in 2015, the government were to significantly relax its fiscal policy, including off-budget spending, leading to faster debt accumulation. S&P could consider raising the ratings if it observed an improvement in Belarus' external balances, as indicated by lower external financing needs, improved current account balances, and increased availability of foreign currency. In this regard, policies that resulted in improved economic competitiveness or benefits from the customs union with Russia could support higher ratings. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee agreed that all key rating factors were unchanged. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. RATINGS LIST Ratings Affirmed Belarus (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating B-/Stable/B Transfer & Convertibility Assessment B- Senior Unsecured B- =========== F R A N C E =========== CONSTELLIUM NV: S&P Puts 'BB-' CCR on CreditWatch Negative ---------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it had placed its 'BB-' long-term corporate credit rating on France-based aluminum producer Constellium N.V. on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, S&P placed its 'BB-' rating on the EUR300 million bond maturing 2021 and its 'BB-' rating the US$400 million bond maturing 2024 on CreditWatch with negative implications. The recovery rating on these bonds is '4'. The CreditWatch placement follows Constellium's announced plans to acquire U.S.-based aluminum can sheet producer Wise Metals for an enterprise value of US$1.4 billion (EUR1.1 billion). The CreditWatch reflects the possibility that S&P could lower Constellium's corporate credit rating to 'B+' from 'BB-' on the back of higher leverage after the transaction, depending on the financing structure. Pro forma the acquisition, Constellium's adjusted funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt ratio will likely decline below the level of 20% that S&P views as commensurate with the current 'BB- ' rating. S&P thinks the acquisition will moderately strengthen Constellium's "fair" business risk profile. Wise Metals is a producer of can sheet serving brewers, soft drink bottlers, and can manufacturers, with 450,000 metric tons of hot mill capacities. It is the third-largest player in the North American beverage can sheet market. The integration of Wise Metals will further improve Constellium's end-market and geographic diversity. Pro forma the acquisition, Constellium's presence in North America should double to 30%, while the incremental EBITDA in the first years will fully contribute to the group's packaging segment exposure, which S&P perceives as resilient, though competitive. S&P intends to resolve the CreditWatch once the transaction is closed and once the financing structure is finalized, which S&P expects within the next several months. If Constellium's adjusted FFO to debt declines materially below 20%, S&P would likely lower the rating by one notch to 'B+' following the transaction. S&P also expects liquidity to remain "adequate." Conversely, S&P may affirm the rating if the company funds the transaction in a way that limits the increase in leverage, including a more sizable capital increase, so that the ratio of FFO to debt remains at about 20%, or adjusted debt to EBITDA below 4.0x pro forma the acquisition. PEUGEOT SA: Fitch Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B+' IDR ------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Peugeot SA's (PSA) Long- term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at 'B+'. Fitch has also affirmed the senior unsecured rating at 'BB-' with a Recovery Rating (RR) of 'RR3'. The Outlook revision reflects Fitch's projections that PSA's core automotive operations' profitability will increase to around breakeven in 2014 and improve further to above 1% in 2015 and 2% in 2016, from a negative 2.9% in 2013 and a negative 3.9% in 2012. The Positive Outlook also reflects our expectations that industrial free cash flow (FCF) will become positive in 2014, following three years of substantial free cash absorption. However, Fitch believes that the improvement remains fragile and could be derailed if the operating environment deteriorates more than expected, notably outside of Europe where the group is trying to diversify further, and sales do not increase as Fitch assumes. The benefits of cost-cutting actions could also be absorbed by higher-than-planned investments or higher-than- expected working capital needs. Fitch currently projects group revenue to increase by 2.5% in 2015 and more than 5% in 2016, which should benefit operating leverage and, in turn, profitability. Nonetheless, the recovery in profitability and FCF in 1H14, notably at the group's automotive operations which returned to breakeven in the period, confirms that the group is on the right track with its restructuring and cost-saving measures. Fitch also believes that the current recovery of the European automotive market, to which PSA remains highly exposed, will mitigate the weakness in other markets and will support a gradual rebound of earnings and cash generation. KEY RATING DRIVERS Expected Sales Recovery Fitch expects revenue growth in 2014 to be supported by the combination of a strengthening product portfolio, due to the renewal of key models in 2013 and 2014, and the gradual recovery of the European market. Fitch's expectations for further growth in China, together with PSA's increasing market share in this market, should offset weakening market conditions in other markets including Latin America and Russia. Progress in Restructuring The group's measures to streamline its product portfolio and brand strategy, and profitably expand further its international operations make sense to Fitch but will take time and carry significant execution risk. In Europe, Fitch expects PSA's cash- preservation and cost-reduction measures, including plant closures, workforce reduction and renegotiated labour conditions, to improve the cost base and hence bolster profitability in 2014 and 2015, although it will likely remain low. Recovering but Weak Profitability, FCF The group's operating margin improved to 1.9% in 1H14 from a negative 0.3% in 2013, including the automotive division at breakeven. Fitch expects earnings to benefit from the improved cost structure and recovering sales in 2014, albeit burdened by further FX volatility and continuously challenging market conditions. Fitch projects PSA's automotive operating margin to improve to 0.2% in 2014 under current market assumptions and to increase to between 1% and 2% in 2015-2016. FCF was robust in 1H14, following EUR1.1bn cash absorption in 2013, but should partly reverse in 2H14 because of working capital outflows. Part of the cash inflow from the capital increase in May 2014 and stronger FFO will be absorbed by higher capex and hence will limit deleveraging by 2016. Capital Increase PSA increased its capital by EUR3bn in May 2014, including EUR800m each from the French State and Dongfeng Motor. As a result, they will become the majority shareholders, in line with the Peugeot family, each with a stake of 14.1%. The cash inflow has benefited the financial profile but the new shareholding structure may present some renewed challenges to coordinate the various shareholders' interests, which could be divergent. Weak Competitive Position Despite continuous recent improvement, PSA sales remain biased toward the European market and the mass-market small and medium car segments, where competition and price pressure are fiercest. Competition is also intensifying in foreign markets where PSA has diversified to, including Latin America, Russia and China. Sound Liquidity PSA's liquidity remains healthy, including EUR9.9bn of readily available cash for its industrial operations at end-June 2014, according to Fitch's adjustments for minimum operational cash of EUR1.3bn and non-readily available financial assets. In addition, committed credit lines of EUR3bn at PSA maturing in 2017 and 2019, EUR1.15bn at Faurecia and EUR5.7bn at Banque PSA Finance (BPF) were undrawn at end-June 2014. The group's revolving credit facility was renegotiated in April 2014 and includes a EUR2bn, five-year tranche and a EUR1bn, three-year tranche with two optional one-year extensions. The current French State guarantee for up to EUR7bn and the projected partnership with Santander Consumer Finance in Europe help secure the refinancing of Banque PSA Finance, which is critical to support the group's sales. RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include: -- Automotive operating margin improving above 1% on a sustained basis (2013: negative 2.9%, 2014E: 0.2%) -- FCF increasing towards 1% (2013: negative 2.5%, 2014E: 0.4%) -- Funds from operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage remaining below 2x (2013: 4.9x, 2014E: 1.7x) Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include: -- Further revenue decline and continuous negative operating margins, actual or expected, at the automotive division -- Further negative FCF (2013: negative EUR1.3bn, 2014E: EUR200m) -- Deteriorating liquidity ============= G E R M A N Y ============= PROVENTUS EUROPEAN: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Ratings on 2 Note Classes ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Proventus European ABS CDO's senior notes to Stable from Negative and affirmed all ratings: EUR12 million class A notes (XS0283671716): affirmed at 'BB-sf'; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative EUR28 million class B notes (XS0283673415): affirmed at 'B-sf', Outlook revised to Stable from Negative EUR20 million class C notes (XS0283674223): affirmed at 'CCCsf' EUR25 million class D notes (XS0283674819): affirmed at 'CCCsf' EUR20 million class E notes (XS0283675626): affirmed at 'CCsf' EUR10 million class F notes (XS0283676434): affirmed at 'CCsf' The transaction is a synthetic securitization of primarily mezzanine structured finance assets. KEY RATING DRIVERS The Outlook revision reflects the stabilizing credit quality of the underlying portfolio. Rating migration of the underlying assets over the past 12 months was balanced between upgrades and downgrades, compared with net negative rating migration the year before. Around one third of the portfolio experienced saw rating migration, of which 60% were upgraded. In addition, increased credit enhancement due to natural portfolio amortization has reduced the transaction's sensitivity to potential credit deterioration or further credit events. Over the last 12 months, one Spanish ABS asset has defaulted, with recoveries at over 85% of its principal. The affirmation reflects the stable performance of the underlying portfolio over the last 12 months. Since then, the 'CCC' and below bucket decreased to 5% from 9% and the performing portfolio balance was deleveraged by EUR240 million. Over 50% of the amortization came from CMBS assets. Forty per cent of repayment came from German assets and 23% from UK assets. European peripheral exposure decreased marginally over the past year to 17% from 19% and is represented by Spain, Italy and Portugal. Portuguese exposure is less than 1% of the overall portfolio balance. The largest country exposure is the UK with 44%, up from 38% a year ago, followed by Germany with 16%, down from 22%, and the Netherlands with 15%, up from 13%. The largest industry represented is RMBS with over 70%, followed by CMBS. CMBS assets exceeded the maximum concentration bucket of 20% a year ago, but have since dropped below the threshold amount. RATING SENSITIVITIES In its sensitivity analysis, Fitch found that the ratings are not affected by stressing the default probability and recovery assumptions each by 25%. =========== G R E E C E =========== GLITNIR BANK: Iceland Nears Bank Creditor Deal, Gudmundsson Says ---------------------------------------------------------------- Omar R. Valdimarsson at Bloomberg News reports that Iceland is getting closer to settling a bank creditor dispute that started in 2008 as the central bank signals an agreement may come in a matter of months. "Everything indicates that we're getting closer to the final stop," Bloomberg quotes central bank Governor Mar Gudmundsson as saying on Oct. 7 in an interview in Reykjavik. "We've had foreign specialists working for us so this could happen in the next months. But I'm not going to announce anything right now." The island has been working with external advisers to help find a model that allows creditors in the failed banks to be paid without undermining the exchange rate, Bloomberg relates. Failure to strike an agreement that protects Iceland's balance of payments would delay any removal of capital controls "for years," the central bank, as cited by Bloomberg, said. The central bank said that to avoid that outcome, creditors will need to accept debt writedowns, Bloomberg notes. Finance MinisterBjarni Benediktsson said last month that the government is stress testing how settling claims against Kaupthing Bank hf, Glitnir Bank hf, and Landsbanki Islands hf will affect the island's capital account, Bloomberg recounts. Mr. Gudmundsson said that Iceland may need to come up with individual models for each bank to expedite the process, Bloomberg notes. Iceland's krona controls, enforced at the end of 2008 to stop the economy hemorrhaging capital after its biggest banks defaulted on US$85 billion in debt, are blocking about US$6.6 billion in assets from being offloaded, or more than one-third of Iceland's gross domestic product, Bloomberg recounts. The administrators of Glitnir said last month that they presented a model to the central bank that enabled creditor repayment without affecting the exchange rate, Bloomberg relates. The proposal would allow the bank to tap $4.55 billion in foreign exchange held in offshore accounts, Bloomberg states. According to Bloomberg, Steinunn Gudbjartsdottir, the head of Glitnir's winding up committee, said that the plan was sent to the central bank in November. A similar proposal by Kaupthing Bank hf would bring the total amount that can be paid out to US$7.8 billion, Bloomberg notes. Creditors that have bought claims against Iceland's failed banks include hedge funds Davidson Kempner Capital Management LLC and Taconic Capital Advisors LP, Bloomberg discloses. Mr. Gudmundsson said that even if Iceland does strike a deal with creditors in the failed banks, the island is likely to continue enforcing some form of currency controls to prevent market distortion, Bloomberg relates. About Glitnir Banki Headquartered in Reykjavik, Iceland, Glitnir banki hf -- http://www.glitnir.is/-- offers an array of financial services to corporation, financial institutions, investors and individuals. Judge Stuart Bernstein of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District Court of New York granted Glitnir permission to enter into a proceeding under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code on January 6, 2008. GREECE: Needs Precautionary Credit Line, IMF Head Says ------------------------------------------------------ Ian Talley and Alkman Granitsas at The Wall Street Journal report that International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Greece should have a precautionary credit line to help it regain normal access to bond markets. The idea is to use the remaining US$16 billion in the current program as a backstop facility, the Journal says. If it didn't draw on the facility, the move would slim its debt load and repayment costs, the Journal notes. According to the Journal, it might also help Greece to potentially tap the European Central Bank's program to buy asset- backed securities of member countries as a way to ease financial conditions. ECB President Mario Draghi said that Greece needs to be in a monitored financing program to win access to the central bank's purchase operations, the Journal relates. Although the existing IMF program doesn't end for another 18 months, Greece's two party coalition government -- made up of the conservative New Democracy and socialist Pasok parties -- has said it hopes the country will soon be able to free itself from the onerous oversight of its troika of international creditors, who have pledged some EUR240 billion (US$304 billion) over the past five years to bail out the country, the Journal relays. According to the Journal, the IMF said Greece's funding needs for 2015 amount to EUR18.7 billion and to EUR8.6 billion the year after that, something Greece hopes to plug with existing bailout money, better budget performance and financing from the debt markets. ============= I R E L A N D ============= ANDERSON VALLEY II: S&P Cuts Ratings on 3 Note Classes to 'D' ------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'D (sf)' from 'CC (sf)' its credit ratings on Anderson Valley II CDO PLC's class B-1, C-1, and D-1 notes. The rating actions follow the notes' payment defaults after the transaction was terminated following the June 2014 payment date. In S&P's last review, the portfolio had experienced further credit events, which reduced the available collateral for repaying the notes. According to the June 20, 2014 payment date report, published before the structure was terminated, the class S-1 and A-1 notes fully repaid. However, the class B-1, C-1, and D-1 notes remained outstanding after the sale of all of the collateral held in the transaction. The class B-1 notes received partial principal payments, while the class C-1 and D-1 notes did not receive any. S&P has therefore lowered to 'D (sf)' from 'CC (sf)' its ratings on these classes of notes. Anderson Valley II CDO is a 2007-vintage cash flow synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) securitization containing both cash and synthetic assets (credit default swaps). RATINGS LIST Ratings Lowered Anderson Valley II CDO PLC EUR86.4 Million Floating-Rate Notes Class Rating To From B-1 D (sf) CC (sf) C-1 D (sf) CC (sf) D-1 D (sf) CC (sf) =========== L A T V I A =========== TRASTA KOMERCBANKA: Moody's Withdraws 'E+' Fin'l Strength Rating ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn Trasta Komercbanka's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of E+, equivalent to a b3 baseline credit assessment (BCA), and the long and short-term deposit ratings of B3/NP. Ratings Rationale Moody's has withdrawn the rating for its own business reasons. Based in Riga, Latvia, Trasta Komercbanka reported total assets of EUR480 million at end-June 2014. =================== L U X E M B O U R G =================== ALTICE SA: S&P Assigns 'B+' Corp. Credit Rating; Outlook Stable --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it assigned its 'B+' long-term corporate credit rating to Luxembourg-based cable and telecommunications holding company Altice S.A. The outlook is stable. At the same time, S&P assigned its 'B' issue rating to Altice's EUR4.15 billion equivalent senior secured notes. The rating on Altice reflects S&P's assessment of its financial risk profile as "highly leveraged" and S&P's view of its business risk profile as "satisfactory." Altice has successfully issued EUR4.15 billion equivalent of senior secured notes to fund its participation in a new rights issue at Numericable Group, as part of the expected merger between Numericable Group and Societe Fran‡aise du Radiotelephone (SFR), Vivendi's telecom business, a transaction that will be primarily debt-funded. S&P anticipates that this transaction will close over the short term, at which point Altice will be the majority shareholder of the merged Numericable-SFR entity, with a 60% stake, and Numericable-SFR will contribute about three-quarters of the group's revenues and about two-thirds of its EBITDA on a proportional consolidation basis. "Our view of Altice's business risk profile as "satisfactory" reflects our view of the company's scale and solid market positions across its main markets of operations -- primarily France, Israel, and the Dominican Republic -- as the No. 2 telecom operator in its markets. Altice has significant subscriber market shares and the capability to offer fixed and mobile integrated services, as well as access to content in its main assets. Altice's business risk profile also benefits from superior fiber networks across most of its markets and a significant degree of geographic diversification in its international operations. We also acknowledge the company's solid operating efficiency, as evidenced by its track record of greatly improving its subsidiaries' cost structures, as well as the meaningful synergies between Numericable and SFR, as further strengths to the business risk profile. We believe these synergies should support future growth in the company's EBITDA margins," S&P said. "The business risk profile is constrained by our view of the intense competition in France -- Altice's key operating market -- with substantial price pressures in the wireless market (where SFR is the No. 2 player) and a competitive pricing environment in its fixed-line business. We also think that the integration of Numericable and SFR will pose significant operational challenges given the size of the acquisition, including the integration of the companies' respective networks, as well as the need to rebrand. We view Altice's competition with larger and better- capitalized incumbent telecom operators across all of its key markets as a limiting factor in our evaluation of the company's business risk profile. It is further constrained by our assessment of increased operating risks in some of Altice's international assets, including increased competition in the Israeli fixed-line and pay-TV markets, an oversupplied Israeli wireless market, and operating exposure to weak currency in the Dominican Republic, since these factors may dampen the company's growth prospects," S&P added. "We assess Altice's financial risk profile as "highly leveraged" due to the group's high debt burden after the Numericable-SFR transaction, which will lead to adjusted leverage of more than 5x pro forma for 2014 and 2015. We adjust our forecast for Numericable's results and liabilities on a proportional basis to reflect Altice's partial ownership (which can lead to significant cash-flow leakage), as well as our view of the group's actual leverage if debt were pushed down to Numericable's level. Due to our anticipation of improved operating margins thanks to merger- related synergies, we believe the company has good deleveraging prospects in the first 18-24 months after the transaction closes, assuming wireless profits stabilize beyond 2014. But we expect continued top-line pressure in the French mobile unit, which could offset some of the benefits of cost-reduction arising from the merger," S&P noted. There are some uncertainties regarding the group's long-term financial policy, though, because S&P thinks its deleveraging may be skewed by further acquisition opportunities, including the potential for Altice to boost its stake in Numericable Group, and additional expansion of the group's international operations. S&P believes, however, that the group's debt-funded growth will be limited by its incurrence covenants. The highly leveraged financial risk profile also reflects the group's weak debt coverage ratios, notably free cash flow to debt, which S&P expects to be at less than 5% over the next 18-24 months. S&P bases its forecast on Altice's continued significant capital expenditure (capex) as it invests in fiber networks and the limited tax relief on the group's interest expenses stemming, to a large degree, from the debt raised at the holding companies' level. S&P's base-case operating scenario for Altice pro forma the consolidation of SFR assumes: -- Revenue declines of about 3% in 2014 and 1%-2% in 2015 resulting mainly from the continued impact of repricing in SFR's mobile division and, to a smaller extent, from top- line revenues from its Israeli asset, HOT, following increased competition in the fixed-line and pay-TV market; -- A stable group EBITDA margin of about 31% (unadjusted) in 2014 and 2015 ; and -- A capex-to-sales ratio of about 17%. Based on these assumptions, S&P arrives at these credit measures pro forma the consolidation of SFR: -- Funds from operations (FFO) to debt of 12% in 2014 and 2015; -- Debt to EBITDA of about 5x-2x pro forma for 2014, declining to about 5.1x in 2015; -- Adjusted interest coverage of about 3.0x; and -- Adjusted free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt of 3%-4%. The stable outlook reflects S&P's view of Altice's significant deleveraging potential from organic debt reduction and earnings growth over the next two to three years as merger synergies build up. This is largely offset by releveraging risks, because S&P anticipates that Altice will seek to boost its level of participation in Numericable (for example, by acquiring some or all of Vivendi's 20% stake). S&P also expects Numericable to pay Vivendi a EUR750 million earn-out over the medium term (when the company reaches EUR2.0 billion EBITDA minus capex). S&P do not expect Altice to deleverage below the adjusted 5x level in the next 18 months, and anticipate that its relatively weak free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt generation will be about 3%- 4%. S&P could raise the rating in the next two to three years if it sees Altice's adjusted leverage fall below 5x, with EBITDA interest coverage remaining at or above 3x, and adjusted FOCF to debt growing to 4%-5%. This would also require adjusted EBIDA margin growth closer to 35%. S&P could take a negative rating action if it sees the company's releveraging rising higher than its post-acquisition levels. S&P will closely monitor the group's cash-flow generation, particularly if its FOCF to debt erodes toward 2.5%. ===================== N E T H E R L A N D S ===================== DECO 14 - PAN EUROPE: S&P Affirms 'D' Ratings on 4 Note Classes --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its credit ratings on DECO 14 - Pan Europe 5 B.V.'s class A-2 and A-3 notes. At the same time, S&P has affirmed its ratings on the class B, C, D, E, F, and G notes. The rating actions follow S&P's review of the credit quality of the seven remaining loans under its European commercial mortgage- backed securities (CMBS) criteria. S&P's review follows note principal payments totaling EUR205.7 million since the Jan. 2014 interest payment date (IPD). This includes the full repayment of the Woodsford MF, Capital & Regional, and Puma MF loans. Of the seven remaining loans, four are in special servicing and one was in special servicing but has since been restructured. THE ARMILLA CLARICE 2 LOAN (27.1% OF THE POOL) The Armilla Clarice 2 loan is the largest loan in the transaction, and has a current securitized loan balance of EUR126.7 million. The loan matures in Oct. 2016. A portfolio of 14 office premises in Italy secures the loan. The portfolio is let in its entirety to Telecom Italia. The July 2014 servicer report states a remaining weighted-average unexpired lease term (WAULT) of 7.42 years. In the July 2014 investor report, the servicer reported a 2.76x loan interest coverage ratio (ICR) and a 52.3% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, based on a Sept. 2006 valuation of EUR242.5 million. S&P has not assumed losses on the loan in its expected-case scenario. ARCADIA LOAN (22.8% OF THE POOL) The Arcadia loan is nonperforming and transferred into special servicing in March 2010, due to an ICR covenant default. The loan failed to repay at maturity in Jan. 2014. However, there is a standstill agreement that expires in Dec. 2014. The loan has a current securitized loan balance of EUR106.2 million. The loan is secured by 24 retail warehouse properties (down from 28 at closing) located throughout Germany. The assets are located in small- and medium-size towns near Frankfurt, Hannover, Hamburg, and Dusseldorf. The current portfolio occupancy is 89.54%, with a WAULT of 4.97 years. In the July 2014 investor report, the servicer reported a 4.43x loan ICR and a securitized LTV ratio of 214.8%, based on a June 2013 valuation of EUR49.5 million. The special servicer is undertaking an asset-by-asset approach to the workout of the loan, which includes certain capital improvement works, together with individual property sales. The special servicer has advised that it anticipates to sell a further two assets by the end of 2014. S&P has assumed losses on the loan in its expected-case scenario. CGG - TAMBELLE REDO 3 LOAN (20.2% OF LOAN POOL) The CGG loan transferred into special servicing in July 2013 following an LTV ratio covenant breach. The loan matured in Jan. 2014 and has a current securitized balance of EUR94.6 million. The loan is secured by 14 properties comprising a mix of retail, office, and residential accommodation. In the July 2014 investor report, the servicer reported an ICR of 5.15x. Based on the April 2014 portfolio valuation of EUR77.4 million, the current LTV ratio for the securitized loan is 122.2%. The special servicer is continuing negotiations with the borrower regarding the workout of the loan. The current proposal reflects a discounted pay off for the portfolio or consensual sale. S&P has assumed losses on the loan in its expected-case scenario. OTHER LOANS (29.8% OF POOL) The remaining four loans are the Sofia Business Park loan, the Mansford Nord Bayern loan, the Cottbus Shopping Centre loan, and the DD Karstadt loan. The contribution to the transaction's overall securitized balance of these remaining loans varies between 10.8% (Sofia Business Park) and 1.1% (DD Karstadt). The Mansford Nord Bayern and the DD Karstadt loans are currently in default and are specially serviced. Both loans are secured by retail premises in regional German locations. S&P has assumed losses on these loans in its expected-case scenario. A modern office business park development outside Sofia, Bulgaria, comprising 11 properties, secures the Sofia Business Park loan. Following the special servicer's restructuring of the loan, it is currently performing. The servicer has extended the loan maturity date until Oct. 2015. S&P currently anticipates losses on this loan under its expected-case scenario. The Cottbus Shopping Centre loan is secured by a secondary retail shopping center asset in Cottbus, Germany. Kaufland discount hypermarkets anchor the center. The loan is currently performing. However, the underlying asset has not been revalued since 2006. S&P has assumed losses on the loan in its expected- case scenario. INTEREST SHORTFALLS The class D to G notes have experienced interest shortfalls in the past. S&P understands that the excess spread in this transaction, which is distributed to the unrated class X notes, is not available to mitigate interest shortfalls resulting from partial interest collections on the underlying pool of loans or from the payment of certain prior-ranking expenses. The issuer relies on the liquidity facility to address timely payment of interest on the notes. However, under the transaction documents, the liquidity facility provider is not allowed to make drawings to cover interest shortfalls under the notes if such shortfalls have resulted from special servicing fees, special servicing expenses, or the reduction of liquidity facility drawings following the determination of an appraisal-reduction amount. The appraisal- reduction mechanism was structured to prevent drawings on the portion of the securitized loans that represents more than 90% of the appraised value. Given the number of loans in special servicing and the potential for more to be transferred, S&P's analysis indicates that the class D to G notes remain vulnerable to interest shortfalls. RATING ACTIONS S&P's ratings in the transaction address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal no later than the Oct. 2020 legal final maturity date of the notes. S&P has assumed losses on six of the seven remaining loans in its expected-case scenario. Following note principal payments totaling EUR205.7 million since the Jan. 2014 IPD, the available credit enhancement for the class A2 and A3 notes has increased. While the class A-2 and A-3 notes could achieve a higher rating on a strict principal recovery basis, concerns regarding the number of loans in special servicing and our concern regarding future costs and further cash flow disruptions have led S&P to constrain the ratings on these classes of notes. S&P has therefore raised to 'A (sf)' from 'BBB+ (sf)' its rating on the class A-2 notes, and to 'BBB+ (sf)' from 'BBB- (sf)' our rating on the class A-3 notes. In S&P's view, the potential cash flow risks to the class B and C notes remain unchanged as a result of the interest shortfalls to the classes below. S&P has therefore affirmed its 'B (sf)' and 'CCC- (sf)' ratings on the class B and C notes, respectively. S&P has also affirmed its 'D (sf)' ratings on the class D, E, F, and G notes as they experienced interest shortfalls on prior interest payment dates and are highly vulnerable to principal losses. DECO 14 - Pan Europe 5 is a European CMBS transaction that closed in March 2007. It is currently secured on seven European commercial real estate loans. Four of the seven remaining loans are in special servicing. RATINGS LIST DECO 14 - Pan Europe 5 B.V. EUR1.491 bil commercial mortgage-backed floating-rate notes Rating Rating Class Identifier To From A-2 233181AJ5 A (sf) BBB+ (sf) A-3 233181AK2 BBB+ (sf) BBB- (sf) B 233181AC0 B (sf) B (sf) C 233181AD8 CCC- (sf) CCC- (sf) D 233181AE6 D (sf) D (sf) E 233181AF3 D (sf) D (sf) F 233181AG1 D (sf) D (sf) G 233181AH9 D (sf) D (sf) E-MAC PROGRAM 2007-I: S&P Lowers Rating on Class D Notes to 'B' --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its credit ratings on E-MAC Program B.V. Compartment NL 2007-I's class B, C, and D notes. At the same time, S&P has affirmed its ratings on the class A2 and E notes. The rating actions follow S&P's performance review, in which it conducted its credit and cash flow analysis using information from the servicer as of July 2014, and applied its criteria for Dutch residential mortgage-backed securities. The underlying collateral comprises Dutch residential mortgage loans that GMAC RFC Nederland originated. CMIS Nederland is the servicer. While severe arrears of more than 90 days remain higher than S&P's Dutch RMBS index and other E-MAC transactions, they have decreased over the past two interest payment dates (IPDs) to 1.95% in July 2014 from 2.27% in April 2014. Furthermore, Dutch macroeconomic indicators remain weak, despite an increase in GDP. After five years of decline, the Dutch housing has started to recover in recent months, reflecting an improving economic environment. House sale increased to 128,000 over the past year -- the highest volume since Sept. 2010. House prices have increased by 1.2% since Q2 2013, although average prices remain about 20% below their Aug. 2008 peak. The Dutch house price decline is a key factor in S&P's analysis. Although it has slowed down in recent months, house prices still fell by 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014. S&P's calculations show that the transaction's weighted-average indexed loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has increased since S&P's previous Feb. 12, 2013 review. This has increased S&P's weighted-average loss severity (WALS) estimates. On the July 2014 IPD, net losses spiked to EUR898,000 from EUR455,000 on the April 2014 IPD, reducing excess spread. The issuer subsequently drew on the reserve fund, which in turn reduced the class A2, B, C and D notes' available credit enhancement. The reserve fund is now at 97% of its documented required level. The drawing of the reserve fund, coupled with the pool's high percentage of interest-only mortgages, has curbed available credit enhancement overall. However, the class A2, B, C, and D notes' credit enhancement has nonetheless increased since our previous review, due to the transaction's sequential amortization. S&P's cash flow analysis shows that the available credit enhancement for the class A2 and E notes is commensurate with S&P's currently assigned ratings. S&P has therefore affirmed its ratings on these classes of notes. S&P has lowered its ratings on the class B, C, and D notes based on the results of its cash flow analysis. The downgrades also reflect the transaction's deteriorating performance and the effect of falling Dutch house prices. Rating WAFF (%) WALS (%) AAA 18.68 48.16 AA 14.55 44.76 A 10.37 39.76 BBB 6.36 36.51 BB 4.30 31.02 WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency. The Royal Bank of Scotland is the transaction's swap provider. Although the swap documentation is more in line with S&P's current counterparty criteria after having been amended, the notes' highest achievable rating is 'A+ (sf)' because the documentation only stipulates volatility buffers that, under S&P's criteria, support this rating level. RATINGS LIST Class Rating Rating To From E-MAC Program B.V. Compartment NL 2007-I EUR602.7 Million Residential Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate and Excess Spread-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Ratings Lowered B A- (sf) A (sf) C BB+ (sf) BBB (sf) D B (sf) BB- (sf) Ratings Affirmed A2 A (sf) E CCC (sf) =============== P O R T U G A L =============== BANCO ESPIRITO: Novo Banco May Struggle to Attract EUR4.9BB Bid --------------------------------------------------------------- Martin Arnold and Peter Wise at The Financial Times report that the new managers of Portugal's Novo Banco have been warned they will struggle to attract takeover bids worth more than half the EUR4.9 billion injected to rescue the lender from the wreckage of Banco Espirito Santo. Several rivals have indicated an interest in acquiring Novo Banco, the good bank separated from the toxic assets of the Espirito Santo family's failed banking empire in August, the FT discloses. Likely bidders include Portugal's Banco BPI and Spain's Santander, the FT notes. The bank has been put up for sale in an auction being arranged on behalf of Portugal's central bank by France's BNP Paribas, the FT relates. The Portuguese government is pushing for a deal to be agreed, if not completed, before next October's election, the FT states. However, one investment banker who recently met Novo Banco's new management team said they "would be lucky to get half the book value" of EUR4.9 billion because of the risks still hanging over the bank and Portugal's weak economic prospects, according to the FT. Another specialist in banking deals in southern Europe said the auction could even fall apart if the bank fails to attract high enough offers, the FT notes. The other Portuguese banks are on the hook for any losses if the bank is sold for less than EUR4.9 billion, the FT says. Bankers expect Novo Banco to recoup part of a EUR3.3 billion credit line to BES Angola, which was transferred to the "good bank" already full provisioned, the FT states. Any amount recovered would go straight to equity and could make a crucial difference to the value of the bank, the FT discloses. According to the FT, there may be "residual fears" about potential hidden liabilities, the banker said, but Novo Banco had been cleared of EUR7 billion in toxic assets shifted into its "bad bank" and it was difficult to imagine that "any big problems remained undiscovered". However, analysts fear there have been significant outflows of deposits from Novo Banco since it was split off from BES, particularly as purchases of state savings certificates have hit record highs over the past two months, the FT notes. Potential losses from exposure to parts of the collapsed Esp¡rito Santo business empire also add to the difficulty in assessing the bank's fair value, the FT states. About Banco Espirito Santo Banco Espirito Santo is a private Portuguese bank based in Lisbon, Portugal. It is 20% owned by Espirito Santo Financial Group. In August 2014, Banco Espirito Santo had been split into "good" and "bad" banks as part of a EUR4.9 billion rescue of the distressed Portuguese lender that protects taxpayers and senior creditors but leaves shareholders and junior bondholders holding only toxic assets. A total of EUR4.9 billion in fresh capital is being injected into this "good bank", which will subsequently be offered for sale. It has been renamed "Novo Banco", meaning new bank, and will include all BES's branches, workers, deposits and healthy credit portfolios. In August 2014, Espirito Santo Financial Portugal, a unit fully owned by Espirito Santo Financial Group, filed under Portuguese corporate insolvency and recovery code. Also in August 2014, Espirito Santo Financiere SA, another entity of troubled Portuguese conglomerate Espirito Santo International SA, filed for creditor protection in Luxembourg. In July 2014, Portuguese conglomerate Espirito Santo International SA filed for creditor protection in a Luxembourg court, saying it is unable to meet its debt obligations. * * * On Aug. 15, 2014, The Troubled Company Reporter reported that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed and then suspended its 'C' ratings on two short-term certificate of deposit programs and one commercial paper program originally issued by Portugal- based Banco Espirito Santo S.A. (BES). As S&P publically communicated on Aug. 8, 2014, most of BES' senior unsecured debt has been transferred to newly formed Novo Banco S.A. (not rated) as part of BES' resolution proceedings. S&P currently does not have satisfactory information to perform its ratings analysis on these debt instruments, and S&P is therefore suspending its ratings on them. The TCR, on Aug. 14, 2014, also reported that Moody's Investors Service has assigned debt, deposit ratings and a standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to the newly established Portuguese entity Novo Banco, S.A., in response to the transfer of the majority of assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items from Banco Espirito Santo, S.A. (BES), together with the banking activities of this bank. The following ratings have been assigned: (1) long- and short-term deposit ratings of B2/Not- Prime; (2) a standalone BFSR of E (equivalent to a ca baseline credit assessment [BCA]). PORTUGAL: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Issuer Default Rating; Outlook Pos. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Portugal's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Rating (IDRs) at 'BB+'. The Outlook is Positive. The issue ratings on Portugal's unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'BB+'. The agency has also affirmed Portugal's Short-term foreign-currency IDR at 'B' and the Country Ceiling at 'A+'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation and the Positive Outlook reflect the following key rating drivers: The rebalancing of the Portuguese economy remains on track, with the economy expected to return to positive GDP growth in 2014. The current account swung from a deficit of 12.2% of GDP in 2008 into a small surplus in 2013. On a flow basis, the economy was in a net lending position of 1.6% of GDP in 2Q14. Household debt has declined to 94.3% of GDP from over 100% in 2010 and the sector is in a net lending position. The general government deficit (GGD) declined to 4.9 % of GDP in 2013 from 11.2% in 2010. The labor market is markedly improving. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to 14% in August 2014 from a peak of 17.4% in early 2013, according to Eurostat data. Both employment growth and a fall in the labor supply, partly through emigration, have contributed to the decline in the unemployment rate, with employment growth being the main driver in 2014. Financing conditions further improved over the past six months. The yield curve has flattened significantly and the government plans to reduce its cash buffer to EUR9.4 billion (5.4% of GDP) by end-2014, reflecting its much improved access to market financing at affordable yields over the past several months. Portugal's reserve currency flexibility score has been increased to '1' from '0' in Fitch's Sovereign Rating Model in light of its track record of favorable market access since the end of the Troika program. Balancing these positive developments, since the previous rating review in April 2014, the following fiscal and economic risks have emerged: Budget execution has been challenging in 2014. The Constitutional Court rulings (in Dec. 2013 and May 2014) effectively prevented the implementation of a large part of the 2014 measures. However, the slippage on the expenditure side has been offset by revenue over-performance. The government has therefore confirmed the GGD target of 4% of GDP (excluding one- off factors) for 2014 without adopting additional consolidation measures. According to UTAO, the parliamentary technical unit for budget support, in order to meet the 2014 budget deficit target of 4%, the deficit in 2H14 would have to improve by 1.5% of GDP relative to the same period last year. This implies a stronger budget performance relative to 1H14 when the deficit declined by 0.8% of GDP. In Fitch's view, this is realistic but relies on stronger GDP growth performance in H214 and revenue growth. In this respect, the good tourist season and August retail sales figures (+2.3%mom) appear supportive. For 2015, the government targets a GGD of 2.5% of GDP. Part of the expenditure cuts underpinning the 2015 target (and envisaged in the Fiscal Strategy 2014-18) will be difficult to implement. Fitch expects some slippage in 2015 (GGD of 3% of GDP), based on GDP growth of 1.2%. However, Fitch has no information about the 2015 budget at present. Fitch's assessment could change after the budget is presented next week. In 1H14, the pace of economic activity eased. High-frequency indicators give mixed messages regarding the evolution of economic activity in 2H14. Confidence indicators have stabilized somewhat since June 2014. Conversely, retail sales were buoyant and industrial production grew by 3% mom in August 2014. Fitch has revised slightly downwards its projections for the Portuguese economy. The agency forecasts real GDP growth of 1% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015 (from 1.3% and 1.5% previously). Portugal has experienced negative rates of consumer price inflation since Feb. 2014. In July, HICP inflation reached negative 0.7% yoy from positive 0.8% a year earlier. Recent outturns have provided some upside with HICP inflation coming in at 0% in Sept. Excluding unprocessed food and energy, HICP inflation was positive in August 2014 (0.7%). An extended period of deflation, resulting in no growth in nominal GDP could hamper public and private debt dynamics, although this is not our base case expectation. Banco Espirito Santo (BES), the third-largest bank by assets, needed a bail-out and was split into a "good" and "bad" bank in August. Although the resolution of BES was handled in a smooth manner, it has raised doubts about the underlying strength of the banking sector and the effectiveness of monitoring by national authorities. Fitch's view is that this was idiosyncratic and spillover risks from BES (to the real economy and the rest of the banking sector) will be contained. The ECB's comprehensive assessment may help dissipate any concerns of wider risks in the banking sector. The establishment of the new bank "Novo Banco" has reduced the cash buffer set aside for Portuguese banks to EUR2.5bn, which may limit its effectiveness. There could consequently be a fiscal impact for the sovereign if other banks needed support after the completion of the ECB's comprehensive assessment - although this is not our base case assumption. The BES operation has also resulted in an increase in net general government debt of 2.3% of GDP. Fitch expects gross general government debt (under ESA2010) to peak this year at 128.6% of GDP and to gradually decline to 116% of GDP by 2020 based on the assumption of an average primary surplus of 2.8% of GDP between 2015 and 2020. Ensuring a declining debt path requires a substantial primary surplus, relative to historical out-turns, given the combination of high debt and the subdued expected nominal growth of the economy over the medium term. RATING SENSITIVITIES Future developments that could individually or collectively result in an upgrade to investment grade include: -- Deficit reduction remaining on track and consistent with the public debt ratio being placed on a firm downward path. -- Evidence that the banking sector is sufficiently capitalized in the aftermath of the BES resolution and able to support the economic recovery. In this respect, the outcome of the ECB comprehensive assessment is important. -- Continued economic recovery and evidence that private debt peaks and starts to gradually decline. -- Sustained current account surpluses consistent with a reduction in external debt ratios. The Outlook is Positive. Consequently, Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a negative rating change. Future development that could individually or collectively result in a stabilization of the Outlook includes: -- Material divergence from the fiscal consolidation path, resulting in a higher debt ratio. -- Significant recapitalization needs of the financial sector by the Portuguese sovereign, for example in the context of the ECB's comprehensive assessment exercise. -- Adverse shocks from domestic politics and/or market financing. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch assumes that fiscal consolidation efforts will continue in 2015 to ensure the exit from the EDP by 2015 in line with the government's recent stability program and the original IMF-EU program. Fitch assumes the eurozone will avoid long-lasting deflation, such as that experienced by Japan from the 1990s. Fitch also assumes the gradual progress in deepening fiscal and financial integration at the eurozone level will continue; key macroeconomic imbalances within the currency union will be slowly unwound; and eurozone governments will tighten fiscal policy over the medium term. It also assumes that the risk of fragmentation of the eurozone remains low. =========== R U S S I A =========== DZERZHINSK CITY: S&P Raises ICR to 'BB-' on Prudent Debt Policies ----------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its long-term issuer credit rating on the City of Dzerzhinsk to 'BB-' from 'B+'. The outlook is stable. At the same time, S&P raised the Russia national scale rating to 'ruAA-' from 'ruA'. RATIONALE The upgrade reflects the reduced volatility of Dzerzhinsk's liquidity, thanks to the city's success in attracting a sizable amount of longer-term committed bank lines. This has led S&P to revise up its view of the city's liquidity position to adequate from less than adequate. S&P has also revised its assessment of Dzerzhinsk's contingent liabilities to very low from low. The ratings are constrained by what S&P sees as Dzerzhinsk's concentrated and very weak economy and Russia's volatile and unbalanced institutional framework, which results in very weak budgetary flexibility for the city. These constraints are mitigated by city's adequate liquidity, very low debt, and very low contingent liabilities. In addition, we assess Dzerzhinsk's budgetary performance as average and city's management as weak in an international context. The issuer credit rating on Dzerzhinsk is equal to its stand- alone credit profile. Dzerzhinsk's economy is dominated by the chemical industry, which relies heavily on external markets. This industry provides about 40% of the city's output and 20% of employment. S&P expects economic growth in Dzerzhinsk to be very modest over the next three years, in line with the national economy, and to remain highly dependent on demand from international markets and Russian state enterprises. The city's budgetary flexibility is very weak, due to Russia's volatile and unbalanced public finance system. About 75% of the city's revenues come from shared taxes -- which the oblast unilaterally controls through annual changes to the city's share of personal income tax (PIT) and the size of transfers to the city. In 2014, federal legislation transferred certain spending responsibilities -- in particular for preschool education -- to the regional governments from the municipal governments, and redistributed some tax revenues in favor of the regions. For this reason, Dzerzhinsk is now responsible for less spending and will receive a lower share of PIT: 33.2% in 2015 compared with 56% in 2013. Based on recent financial results in 2014, however, these changes have left the city somewhat better off and have supported its efforts to consolidate operating fiscal performance, evident in 2012-2013 when it posted a surplus of 0.6% of operating revenues on average after a 5% deficit in 2009-2011. S&P forecasts that Dzerzhinsk will deliver a surplus of about 2.5% of operating revenues on average in 2014-2017. This scenario is based on cautious spending control and continuing support from Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, despite some weakening of the oblast's financial performance. S&P expects that, over the next three years, the balance after capital accounts will remain moderate thanks to cofinancing from the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. In 2012, Dzerzhinsk became a major target of the federal government's environmental remedial action program, under which it was allocated about Russian ruble (RUB) 4 billion (about $105 million). There is uncertainty about the disbursement of these funds, given delays in procurement procedures, which has led the federal government to shift funds to the oblast's budget. Therefore, S&P assumes in its base case a reduction of both capital transfers from the oblast and capital expenditures, leading to only moderate deficits after capital accounts at about 2% of total revenues on average in 2014-2017, almost the same as the average level in 2011-2013. Owing to modest deficits, the city's tax-supported debt will likely stay below 20% of operating revenues through 2016. This includes committed bank lines only, because the city doesn't provide guarantees and its municipal enterprises have zero debt. Dzerzhinsk's limited involvement in the local economy and its government-related entities' relatively stable financial positions have led S&P to assess the city's contingent liabilities as very low, based on S&P's updated criteria. S&P regards the city's financial management as weak, in an international context, as it do for most of its Russian peers. Clear improvements in debt and liquidity policies have so far not outweighed the only emerging level of long-term financial planning and weak revenue and spending management. Liquidity "We have changed our assessment of Dzerzhinsk's liquidity to adequate from less than adequate. We consider that the city's debt service coverage is strong, as free cash and bank lines exceed debt service over the next 12 months by more than 300%. At the same time, we view Dzerzhinsk's access to external liquidity as limited, given the weaknesses of the domestic capital market," S&P said. Dzerzhinsk's cash reserves have historically been low, comprising just 2% of operating spending in 2010-2013 and well below debt service needs. However Dzerzhinsk's management has consistently attracted committed bank lines, which have supported the city's debt service coverage ratio at more than 120%. Moreover, over the last three years, the city has managed to continuously extend the average debt maturity profile. By year-end 2014, the average maturity of the city's committed bank lines will amount to three years, compared with only one year in 2012. As of Sept. 1, 2014, availability under committed and undrawn bank lines exceeded the city's debt service for the next 12 months and the forecast deficit after capital accounts by more than 3x, compared with 1.5x on March 1, 2014. Moreover in 2013- 2014, the city was able to significantly reduce the debt service for 2014-2017 to an average of 6%, from 16% in 2012. OUTLOOK The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that, in 2014-2016, Dzerzhinsk will counterbalance sluggish revenue growth, given support from the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and maintain average budgetary performance with positive operating surpluses and moderate deficits after capital accounts of less than 5% total revenues. The outlook also assumes that the city will maintain adequate liquidity by organizing sufficient amounts in committed bank lines and relying on medium-term borrowing. S&P could take a positive rating action if, within the next 12 months, the city posted operating surpluses of over 5% or surpluses after capital accounts thanks to larger amounts of transfers from the oblast and a tight spending policy. This could allow us to revise our assessment of the city's budgetary performance upward. Conversely, S&P could take a negative rating action if, over the next 12 months, negative operating margins or reliance on short- term debt resulted in weaker liquidity. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected in the Ratings Score Snapshot above. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. RATINGS LIST Upgraded To From Dzerzhinsk (City of) Issuer Credit Rating BB-/Stable/-- B+/Stable/-- Russia National Scale ruAA- ruA KALUGA REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Russian Kaluga Region's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB', with Stable Outlooks, and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'. The agency has also affirmed the region's National Long-term rating at 'AA-(rus)' with Stable Outlook. Kaluga's outstanding senior unsecured domestic bonds (ISIN RU000A0JRHN7) have also been affirmed at 'BB' and 'AA-(rus)'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The ratings reflect the administration's efficient and proactive management, the region's rapid economic development and sound budgetary performance. The ratings also factor in increasing pressure on operating expenditure and a growing debt burden, including contingent risk stemming from the liabilities of public sector entities (PSEs), although the maturity profile of these liabilities is long-term. Fitch expects Kaluga to continue to demonstrate solid operating performance, supported by further expansion of its tax base. The agency expects full-year operating balance to be at 10%-12% of operating revenue in 2014-2016, in line with the 11% reported in 2013. This was down slightly from an average of 15.4% during 2010-2012, due to increasing operating expenditure pressure and decline in corporate income tax (CIT) proceeds in 2013. Operating spending will remain under pressure as a result of the national government's decision to increase public sector salaries and reduce transfers from the federal budget. However, the administration expects CIT to recover in 2014 on growing industrial output. Fitch expects Kaluga's direct risk, including the liabilities of the Development Corporation of Kaluga Region (DCKR), to increase 16% to RUB28 billion in 2014, fuelled by a forecast deficit before debt variation of RUB3.7 billion. Over the medium term the region intends to narrow the budget deficit and limit debt growth. Fitch therefore forecasts direct risk to stabilize in absolute terms during 2015-2016, while operating revenue growth should allow the overall debt burden to gradually decline to 60% by end-2016, from 70% in 2014. Fitch expects debt coverage (direct debt to current balance) to be five to six years in 2014-2016, which is higher than the region's average direct debt maturity profile of three years. This would be similar to the 5.5 years reported in 2013 but down from a strong two years in 2012. Kaluga is not exposed to high immediate refinancing risk as it has only RUB400 million (about 2% of direct risk) due by year- end. However, the region will need to repay about 70% of its direct risk (RUB19.3 billion) in 2015-2017, mostly bank loans. Fitch expects the region will substitute part of bank loans with the loans from the federation and roll over the remaining maturing liabilities with the same banks. The regional government is focused on local economic development and on expanding the tax base. Kaluga has been successful in attracting foreign investments, promoting industrial production and innovation. These policies have allowed the local economy to grow at a cumulative 25.9% in 2011-2013, well above the 9.3% average for the Russian Federation. The government forecasts economic growth of 7% p.a. in 2014-2015. Kaluga actively uses PSEs to finance local investment projects. It established DCKR, which at end-2013 borrowed RUB6.8bn to finance the development of regional industrial zones. Two other regional public companies incurred a combined RUB1bn debt at end- 2013 to finance various investment projects. The region provides subsidies to cover the principal and interest on the debt of these PSEs. Consequently, Fitch considers the liabilities of those PSEs as the region's direct risk. Positively, PSEs' liabilities have a long-term maturity profile till 2022. RATING SENSITIVITIES Maintenance of sound operating performance with operating margins of 12%-14%, and restoration of strong direct debt coverage in line with the region's average debt maturity, would lead to an upgrade. Continued deficit before debt variation leading to direct risk increasing above 75% of current revenue and deterioration in direct debt coverage beyond 10 years would lead to a downgrade. LIPETSK REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating ----------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Russian Lipetsk Region's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB', with Stable Outlooks, and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'. The agency has also affirmed the region's National Long- term rating at 'AA-(rus)' with a Stable Outlook. The region's outstanding senior unsecured domestic bonds' ratings (ISIN RU000A0JS8T1, RU000A0JUNK5 and RU000A0JTVZ8) have been affirmed at 'BB' and 'AA-(rus)'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation reflects Lipetsk's satisfactory operating performance, moderate, albeit increasing, direct risk and prudent financial management. The ratings also factor in the high concentration of the local economy and continuous pressure on operating expenditure. Fitch expects the region's operating performance to remain satisfactory with an operating balance sufficient to cover interest payments in 2014-2016. This will be supported by the region's strong tax base and the ability of the administration to control operating expenditure growth. Higher salaries for public employees in the education and healthcare sectors mandated by the federal government led to a weaker, but still satisfactory, operating balance at 5.9% of operating revenue in 2013 (2012: 8.5%). This, together with high capex, led to a widening of the region's deficit before debt variation to 13.5% of total revenue (2012: 7%). Fitch believes the deficit before debt variation will narrow to below 10% of total revenue in 2014, with no large-scale investment projects in the pipeline over the medium term following the completed construction of several sports venues in its municipalities in 2013. Fitch expects that the region's direct risk will continue to increase, but remain moderate in the medium term and will not exceed 60% of current revenue (2013: 41.4%). The region's maturity profile is stronger than for most of its national peers. The region's direct risk is dominated by medium-term bank loans and issued debt with amortizing repayments, providing a smooth maturity profile. Lipetsk was among a few Russian regions that were able to issue debt at acceptable interest rates before western sanctions were introduced. It issued a RUB5bn domestic bond in 2014 with a final maturity in 2019. The region has no repayments till year-end, following an early repayment of its RUB1.15bn of bank loans due in November-December 2014. The region's economy is developed but concentrated as it hosts of one of the largest Russian metallurgic plants, OJSK Novolipetsk Steel (BBB-/Negative/F3). Ferrous metallurgy contributed 56% of the region's industrial output in 2013, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in the domestic and international steel markets. In 2013 the regional economy grew 1.1% yoy following weak national growth of 1.3%. The administration's strategic objective is to diversify the local economy by developing a network of special economic zones (SEZs). Since mid-2000, Lipetsk has created ten regional SEZs, comprising four industrial, three agricultural, one technological and two tourist-recreational zones in the historical cities of Zadonsk and Elets. Hence investment into non-metallurgy activities increased to 86% of total investment in 2013 from 63% in 2004. RATING SENSITIVITIES Inability to narrow the deficit before debt variation, leading to an increase in direct risk to above 60% of current revenue will lead to a negative rating action. An operating balance improvement to above 10% of operating revenue and debt coverage (direct risk to current balance) below eight years (2013: 14.7 years) would lead to positive rating action. ORENBURG REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR; Outlook Stable ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Russian Orenburg Region's Long- term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB', with Stable Outlooks and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'. The agency has also affirmed the region's National Long-term rating at 'AA-(rus)' with Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the local currency long-term rating of Orenburg Region's senior unsecured domestic bonds and JSC Orenburg Housing Mortgage Corporation's (OHMC) senior unsecured bond, guaranteed by the region, at 'BB' and National Long-term rating at 'AA-(rus)'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation reflects Fitch's unchanged baseline scenario regarding the region's moderate debt with low refinancing risk, satisfactory cash position, and expected recovery in fiscal performance. The ratings also factor in the concentrated nature of the region's tax base to the prime sector of the local economy (oil and gas companies). Fitch expects Orenburg region to gradually restore its operating performance in 2014, with operating surplus close to 4% in 2014 and 5%-6% in 2015-2016. The region is likely to decrease its deficit before debt variation to 3%-5% of total revenue in the medium term (2013: 16.9%). This would be possible due to increased restated tax proceeds and containment of operating expenditure from 2014 onwards. In Fitch's view, Orenburg region's direct risk is likely to increase to up to 41% of current revenue in 2014 (2013: 36%) and to 45% in 2015-2016 to fund expected budget deficits. Direct risk comprised 41% domestic bonds, 41% federal government loans and 18% bank loans. The region's expected payback period - as measured by direct debt/current balance -- is likely to be six to seven years in the medium term in line with expectations. The region's interim cash position has improved, with cash held on accounts totaling RUB4.8bn by end-August 2014 (2013: RUB0.6bn), or 6x expected interest payments in 2014. The region also maintains untapped standby credit lines up to RUB6bn. The region's contingent risk is limited to three guarantees issued to local companies and self-serviced debt of its public entities. The region guaranteed OHMC's domestic bond issued in 2012. None of the guarantees have been called by the lenders and the region is likely to issue several new guarantees in 2014- 2016. The administration expects slow growth in the region's economy, with a likely increase in GRP of less than 1% yoy by end-2014 and about 2%-3% yoy in 2015-2016. The economy is dominated by oil and gas companies, which provide a sustainable tax base. However, the concentrated tax base exposes Orenburg region to potential changes in the fiscal regime, business cycles or price fluctuations in the sector. RATING SENSITIVITIES The ratings could be positively affected by a sustainable debt payback ratio of below four years of current balance and direct risk remaining below 40% of current revenue. The ratings could be negatively affected by consistently weaker budgetary performance leading to insufficient debt service coverage of the region. OTP BANK: Moody's Lowers Long-Term Deposit Ratings to 'Ba3' ----------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 the long-term foreign and local-currency deposit ratings of OTP Bank Russia. The rating action is driven by (1) its asset quality deterioration against the background of weak performance in Russia's (Baa1 negative) consumer lending market; and (2) loss- making performance in H1 2014 that mainly stemmed from growing credit costs. Concurrently, Moody's downgraded the bank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to E+ from D-, which now corresponds to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of b1. The bank's Not Prime short-term foreign and local-currency ratings were affirmed. The outlook on all the bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings is negative, reflecting anticipated pressure on the bank's asset quality, profitability and capital metrics over next 12-18 months. The BFSR carries a stable outlook. Moody's assessment of OTP Bank Russia's ratings is largely based on the issuer's audited financial statements for 2013 prepared under IFRS as well as information received from the bank. Ratings Rationale The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that (1) the bank's asset quality might deteriorate further over next 12-18 months, putting pressure on the bank's profitability; and (2) pressure on the bank's capitalization will develop because additional provisioning charges will persist. OTP Bank Russia's asset quality has been eroded against the background of general weakening in the quality of retail portfolios of Russian banks in H1 2014. This erosion is driven by (1) the rapid growth of household indebtedness in recent years; and (2) the country's currently weak macroeconomic outlook, which suppresses the population's net income and hence debt-servicing capacity. The bank's problem loans that are overdue by more than 90 days increased to 24% of its total loan portfolio in H1 from 19% reported at year-end 2013. As a result of the aforementioned pressure, OTP Bank Russia's cost of risk remained high at 14.8% in H1 2014 (year-end 2013: 15.3%). Given high cost of risk, the bank has become loss-making in 1H 2014 with return on average assets of -1.8% (year-end 2013: 0.6%). As the consumer market and household incomes remain subdued, Moody's expects a further pressure in full-year 2014 cost of risk and thus bottom-line profitability. Although the bank's capital levels are still adequate given its risk profile as a consumer lender (its regulatory capital adequacy ratio was 11.7% in H1 2014, which was in line with 2013 levels), Moody's expects the provisioning charges to pressurize the bank's capital over next 6-to-12 months. Moody's does not expect OTP Bank Russia's losses to be remediated in 2014, because any major reduction in credit costs is unlikely to materialize in the short-to-medium term, despite the bank's efforts to tighten its underwriting standards and cut costs. The rating agency notes that pressure will be exerted on the bank's revenue generation capacity as a result of the contraction of the loan portfolio together with the diminishing proportion of performing loans and increasing funding costs. What Could Move the Ratings Up/Down The downgrade of OTP Bank Russia's long-term ratings implies that upward rating pressure is limited. The outlook on the long-term ratings could be changed to stable if the bank improves its profitability and asset quality metrics, while maintaining adequate capital levels. Downward pressure could be exerted on OTP Bank Russia's ratings as a result of any of the following: (1) continued loss-making performance caused by further asset quality erosion; (2) a further deterioration in the bank's capitalization or (3) if the rating of the parent -- Hungary's OTP Bank NyRt -- was downgraded. Principal Methodology The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Banks published in July 2014. Headquartered in Moscow, Russia, OTP Bank Russia reported total assets of RUB128.6 billion (US$3.8 billion) and net loss of RUB1.2 billion (US$37 million), according to unaudited IFRS at end-H1 2014. TULA REGION: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Issuer Default Rating -------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Russian Tula Region's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB', with Stable Outlooks, and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'. The agency has also affirmed the region's National Long-term rating at 'AA-(rus)' with Stable Outlook. The region's outstanding senior unsecured domestic bonds' (ISIN RU000A0JT1G2 and RU000A0JUAC9) ratings have also been affirmed at 'BB' and 'AA-(rus)'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The ratings reflect Tula's satisfactory operating performance, moderate albeit increasing direct risk and a well-diversified economy. They also reflect weak debt coverage exceeding its debt maturity profile and the overall modest scale of its economy. Fitch expects Tula's operating balance will be supported by further expansion of the region's tax base and will remain sufficient to cover interest expenses in 2014-2016. In 2013, the operating balance improved to 5.4% of operating revenue from 3% in 2012, due to increases in taxes and current transfers from the federal budget. Fitch assumes the budget deficit before debt variation will gradually decline over the medium term to 5%-6% of total revenue in 2015-2016 after peaking at almost 11% of total revenue in 2013 driven by high capex. Fitch expects Tula's direct risk to remain moderate in 2014-2016 in the range of 35%-40% of current revenue (2013: 30%). The region's direct risk maturity profile, which stretches to 2017, was shorter than its debt payback ratio of 7.5 years in 2013. Fitch does not expect the debt payback to match the region's average maturity profile over the medium term, leaving it exposed to refinancing risk. However, the region is free of contingent liabilities, which is credit positive. Refinancing needs in 2014 are limited to the repayment of a RUB2 billion short-term budget loan, which could be covered by unutilized credit line the region has with a commercial bank. It is highly likely that the maturing budget loan will be refinanced, at least partially, by a new medium-term subsidized budget loan at 0.1% interest rate. If this is the case, the region will save on future interest payments. The administration has decided not to issue new domestic bonds in 2014 amid the unfavorable economic and geopolitical situation, and will rely on bank loans with two to three year maturities for budget-deficit financing. Fitch expects that the contraction of medium-term debt obligations will gradually even out the region's maturity profile. The region has a modest but growing economy. The regional economy is diversified and has a well-developed processing industry. Nevertheless, the region's economic profile is still modest, with GRP per capita at 82% of the national median. At the same time, Tula's economic growth of 5.1% outpaced national growth of 1.3% in 2013. The administration expects the regional economy will continue to outperform the national average in 2014. The ratings are weighed down by the evolving nature of the institutional framework for local and regional governments (LRGs) in Russia. It has a shorter track record of stable development than many of its international peers. The predictability of Russian LRGs' budgetary policy is constrained by the continuous reallocation of revenue and expenditure responsibilities within government tiers. RATING SENSITIVITIES An improvement in the operating balance close to 10% of operating revenue for two consecutive years accompanied by debt payback being in line with debt maturity would lead to positive rating action. Conversely, inability to maintain stable operating performance with an operating margin above 5% resulting in weak debt payback exceeding 10 years would lead to a downgrade. VORONEZH REGION: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT Issuer Default Rating ----------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Russian Voronezh Region's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BB+' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'. The National Long-term rating has been also affirmed at 'AA(rus)'. The Outlooks on the Long-term ratings are Stable. Voronezh Region's outstanding senior unsecured domestic bonds ratings (ISIN RU000A0JTG34 and RU000A0JU823) were also affirmed at 'BB+' and 'AA(rus)'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The rating affirmation reflects Fitch's expectations that Voronezh region's fiscal performance will stabilize with a forecast operating balance at 10% of operating revenue in 2014- 2016 that will fully cover interest expenses and principal repayment. The region's deficit before debt variation is likely to narrow to 6% of total revenue in 2014, after a sharp rise to 10.7% in 2013. Voronezh Region's operating balance deteriorated in 2013 to 8.8% of operating revenue, following a strong 13.8% in 2012. This was attributed to a 9.7% yoy increase in operating expenditure, driven mostly by staff cost, which offset a slower 3.8% growth in operating revenue as current transfers from the federal budget declined. Fitch believes that the federal government's pledge to raise public sector salaries will continue to fuel growth of operating expenditure in the medium term, making a repeat of the strong 2011-2012 performance unlikely. Fitch expects the region's direct risk to increase to 30% of current revenue in 2014 and to 33% by end-2016, from 28.3% in 2013, to fund its expected budget deficit in the medium term. The region's direct risk is forecast to increase to RUB22.6 billion by end-2014 from RUB11.4 billion as of Jan. 1, 2013, but remains moderate by international standards. Fitch expects debt coverage (direct risk/current balance) to remain under four years in 2014-2016, which is in line with the maturity of the region's debt portfolio. Debt coverage deteriorated in 2013 to 3.7 years from a strong coverage of below two years in 2011-2012. However, the region's debt maturity profile is smooth, and there are no refinancing peaks. The region's cash position remains sound with cash reserves totaling RUB8.8 billion as of Sept. 1, 2014, (2013: RUB4.7 billion). Fitch expects the region will use part of this liquidity to limit debt growth in 4Q14. However, the cash position should remain strong at RUB3 billion at end-2014. In addition to available cash, the region has untapped stand-by credit lines of RUB3.1 billion, available on a first-demand basis. Voronezh economy is robust and diversified, supporting a solid tax base. The region's administration expects GRP to grow 3%-4% in 2014-2016, which remains higher than the national average. The region's economy expanded 5.1% in 2013 (vs. national GDP growth of 1.3%), after the double-digit growth seen in 2011-2012. RATING SENSITIVITIES Sound budgetary performance on a sustained basis with an operating margin of 15% and direct risk below 45% of current revenue could lead to an upgrade. Deterioration of the operating margin to below 5% for two consecutive years, leading to a significantly weakened debt coverage ratio far above the average maturity of the region's debt portfolio could lead to a downgrade. =========== S E R B I A =========== SERBIA REPUBLIC: S&P Puts 'BB-' Rating on CreditWatch Negative -------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BB-' long-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Serbia on CreditWatch with negative implications. Rationale S&P's CreditWatch placement reflects Serbia's deteriorating general government debt metrics. Favorable market access is currently masking the potential for refinancing risks, which are exacerbated by the high share of foreign currency borrowing and a structural current account deficit that remains elevated, despite narrowing substantially in recent years. The ratings are constrained by Serbia's moderate GDP per capita and limited monetary policy flexibility, owing to the high euroization of the economy. Serbia's long-term economic growth potential remains supportive of the ratings. Serbia's political situation is more stable than in most post- Yugoslavia republics. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) not only has a comfortable majority of 63% in parliament, it also enjoys widespread popular support and has a coalition partner supporting a broader consensus. This has helped increase public acceptance of difficult and politically sensitive reforms and austerity measures, which had been on previous governments' agendas. Major policy initiatives have been delayed again so far this year, partly due to severe flooding in May and also the resignation of the finance minister and the government's hesitation over which austerity measures to implement. That said, S&P notes the recent passage of laws regarding pensions, the labor market, bankruptcy, privatization, and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The sell-off or dissolution of 502 non-strategic SOEs will free up assets for better economic use by private-sector actors, and reduce indirect burdens on the state. Together with expected public administration reforms, this could reduce the distorting use of resources across the economy and promote competitive businesses that could, in turn, generate sustainable employment. Serbia's challenges are comparable to other post-Communist Central and Eastern European states. The difference is that Serbia now faces a weaker global economy and has a dual legacy as a state and federal center. The government's main challenge is fiscal consolidation. S&P remains doubtful whether consolidation will occur unless there is an IMF agreement acting as a policy anchor. In its absence, the government has only announced partial steps toward reducing the budget deficit. Notably, these have included various cuts to pensions and public wages for those earning more than Serbian dinar 25,000. These cuts should generate the approximate savings needed for the total fiscal adjustment: a headline figure of EUR1.5 billion over three years has been mentioned in the context of an IMF agreement. The remaining measures are supposed to be drawn from a mix of subsidy cuts, public expenditure savings, and revenue enhancements. To date, S&P has no details about this portion of the consolidation plan. The credibility of these saving measures will be key to S&P's overall view of Serbia's medium-term fiscal framework. If the majority of the fiscal adjustment succeeded, S&P calculates it would reduce the general government deficit to 6.0% of GDP in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016, from an estimated 8.1% in 2014. Failed SOEs have forced the government to service large chunks of its guaranteed debt portfolio, which S&P now considers equal to general government debt. As a result, net general government debt (gross debt minus liquid assets) has soared to above 60% of GDP from just 25% in 2009. Consequently, general government interest payments as a share of general government revenues have jumped to nearly 9% in 2015 from less than 2% in 2009. S&P forecasts full fiscal consolidation to lead public debt to gradually stabilize at these high levels by 2016-2017. By then, some of the structural reforms should have helped revive growth even if there is a recession. S&P estimates Serbia's economy will contract by 0.7% in real terms this year, but grow again by 1.2% in 2015 before accelerating to an average of 2.7% annually thereafter. In per capita terms, this equates to an average of 2.0% growth over 2014-2017, though this figure is flattered by the population shrinking at an estimated 0.5% per year. Given the current strength of the U.S. dollar, this translates into GDP per capita of roughly US$6,000, lower than any EU neighbors and Montenegro. Serbia's economic potential could lie in the recent development of new export facilities. The growth in automotive production shows that foreign investment can be channeled into transforming industrial assets formerly belonging to the state and leveraging Serbia's lower cost structures to build competitive industries. As an EU accession country, Serbia's expected public- and private-investment inflows will be channeled into exports, in particular. Together with compressed import demand due to the weak economy, S&P believes the current account deficit will remain roughly flat, averaging 5.5% of GDP in 2014-2017. S&P's conservative assumption is that FDI inflows should finance at least half of Serbia's annual current account deficit. This should limit the need to raise large external debts. Given the already high gross external debt stock (90% of GDP in 2015), however, external financing remains a key vulnerability to Serbia's creditworthiness. Gross external financing needs should remain roughly equal to 100% of current account receipts (CARs) plus usable reserves. In dollar terms, S&P estimates Serbia's 2015 gross external financing need at $11.5 billion (44% of CARs). S&P projects that 85% (US$6.2 billion) of the current portion of external debt will be refinanced, all short-term external debt (US$2.0 billion) will be rolled over, and FDI will remain at 2013-2014 levels (US$1.5 billion). S&P forecasts that the public sector will raise the remaining requirement (US$1.8 billion), half through official borrowing and half via Eurobond issuance, portfolio flows to the domestic government bond market, and, if needed, a drawdown of external fiscal assets. Another external vulnerability is that 77% of the general government debt is denominated in foreign currency, and about 60% of commercial debt is held by nonresidents. This makes the fiscal debt-to-GDP ratio sensitive to exchange-rate fluctuations. Such fluctuations have prompted the National Bank of Serbia to pursue a more restrictive monetary policy than its inflation targeting would suggest. As a floating currency, the dinar provides a flexible adjustment mechanism. Recent inflation at the lower end of the central bank's target range (2.5%-5.5%) should not detract from Serbia's history of exceeding its inflation targets. Furthermore, political challenges to central bank independence limit the credibility of monetary policy, in our opinion. CREDITWATCH S&P will resolve the CreditWatch in early 2015 once it has assessed whether the budgetary laws passed by the end of 2014 offer a credible consolidation of public finances. In the absence of legislated fiscal plans leading to the stabilization of the government's debt burden, S&P would lower the ratings to 'B+/B'. S&P could also lower the ratings further if external financing becomes more costly, either because bank rollover rates fall below our expectations or because the public sector's access to markets weakens, or if the central bank adopts a significantly more interventionist foreign exchange policy. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee agreed that the debt burden had deteriorated. All other key rating factors were unchanged. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. RATINGS LIST Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action Rating Rating To From Serbia (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating BB-/Watch Neg/B BB-/Negative/B Senior Unsecured BB-/Watch Neg BB- Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB BB ========= S P A I N ========= AYT GENOVA VIII: Moody's Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'B2' --------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings of 9 notes, confirmed the rating of 1 note and affirmed the rating of 1 note in 4 Spanish residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions: AyT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO II, FTH; AyT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO III, FTH; AyT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO VII, FTH and AyT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO VIII, FTH. The rating action concludes the review of 10 notes placed on review on 17 March 2014, following the upgrade of the Spanish sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and the resulting increase of the local-currency country ceiling to A1 from A3. The sovereign rating upgrade reflected improvements in institutional strength and reduced susceptibility to event risk associated with lower government liquidity and banking sector risks. Ratings Rationale The rating action reflects (1) the increase in the Spanish local- currency country ceiling to A1 and (2) sufficiency of credit enhancement in the affected transactions. For AyT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO II, FTH, the rating action also reflects the correction of a model input error. In prior rating actions, the recovery rate input in the model was inconsistent with the MILAN input, therefore the tail of the asset loss distribution was generated incorrectly. The model has now been adjusted, and the rating action reflects this change. -- Reduced Sovereign Risk The Spanish sovereign rating was upgraded to Baa2 in February 2014, which resulted in an increase in the local-currency country ceiling to A1. The Spanish country ceiling, and therefore the maximum rating that Moody's will assign to a domestic Spanish issuer including structured finance transactions backed by Spanish receivables, is A1 (sf). -- Key collateral assumptions The key collateral assumptions have not been updated as part of this review. The performance of the underlying asset portfolios remain in line with Moody's assumptions. Moody's also has a stable outlook for Spanish ABS and RMBS transactions. -- Exposure to Counterparties The conclusion of Moody's rating review also takes into consideration the exposure to Barclays Bank, S.A. (not rated), which acts as Servicer and Issuer Account Bank in all GEnova transactions. The deals include Issuer Account Bank replacement triggers in case Barclays Bank PLC owns less than 51% of Barclays Bank, S.A. (not rated) or is downgraded below P-1, however there is not an explicit guarantee of the amounts deposited in these accounts. Moody's has assessed the probability and effect of a default of the issuer account bank on the ability of the issuer to meet its obligations under the transactions, and determined this risk has some impact on the ratings on the notes. Principal Methodology The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014. Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings: Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include (1) further reduction in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected, (3) deleveraging of the capital structure and (4) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties. Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and (4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties. List of Affected Ratings: Issuer: AYT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO II, FTH EUR776 million Class A Notes, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR24 million Class B Notes, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: AYT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO III, FTH EUR776 million Class A Notes, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR24 million Class B Notes, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: AYT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO VII, FTH EUR1048.45 million Class A2 Notes, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR22.4 million Class B Notes, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR21.15 million Class C Notes, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: AYT GENOVA HIPOTECARIO VIII FONDO DE TITULIZACION EUR1,575 million Class A2 Notes, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR21 million Class B Notes, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR21 million Class C Notes, Confirmed at B3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR21 million Class D Notes, Affirmed Caa1 (sf); previously on May 10, 2013 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf) AYT GENOVA X: Fitch Affirms 'Bsf' Rating on Class D Notes --------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has upgraded 11 and affirmed 11 tranches of nine AyT Genova Hipotecario transactions, a series of Spanish prime RMBS comprising loans originated by Barclays Bank S.A., a Spanish subsidiary of Barclays Bank Plc (A/Stable/F1). Fitch has also placed four tranches on Rating Watch Evolving (RWE), three on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) and revised the Outlooks on two tranches to Stable from Negative. KEY RATING DRIVERS Rating Cap Revision Fitch placed the class A notes of all nine transactions on Rating Watch Positive following the revision of Spain's Country Ceiling and structured finance rating cap to 'AA+' and 'AA+sf', respectively, six notches above its sovereign Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB+'. With the publication of its updated criteria assumptions for Spanish RMBS on June 5, 2014, Fitch set its assumptions for 'AA+sf' rating stresses used to analyse the ability of some senior tranches to withstand higher rating scenarios. The analysis showed that the credit enhancement (CE) available to senior notes of AyT Genova III, IV, VI, VII, VII and IX is sufficient to warrant a two-notch upgrade. RWE and RWN Driven by Barlcays Bank S.A. Sale Barclays Bank, S.A. performs the role of issuer account bank in all nine transactions. According to the documentation, Barclays Bank Plc share capital in Barclays Bank, S.A. must remain above 51% (90% in AyT Genova XI) so that the ratings of the parent company can be deemed applicable to those of the Spanish branch. On 1 September 2014, Barclays Bank Plc announced the sale of its Spanish subsidiary to CaixaBank, S.A. (BBB/Positive/F2). With the sale of Spanish branch of Barclays, CaixaBank will assume all the responsibilities under the transaction documentation for these transactions. Fitch understands that upon the completion of the sale (end of 2014), an appropriate entity (rated A/F1) will be appointed as the issuer account bank in the publicly placed transactions - AyT Genova III, IV, VI, VII, VIII and IX. However, there is some uncertainty as to whether the same will be applicable for the transactions (AyT Genova X, XI and XII) held by the Barclays Bank group. Under Fitch's criteria, the ratings of those three deals would be linked to the rating of CaixaBank (BBBsf). For this reason, we have placed the class A2 and B notes of AyT Genova X, and class B notes of AyT Genova XII on RWN, and the class A2, B and C notes of AyT Genova XI and class A notes of AyT Genova XII on RWE. The RWN on the class A2 and B notes of AyT Genova X and class B notes of AyT Genova XII imply that failure to comply with the transaction documentation would result in a downgrade of the notes to the rating of the bank; otherwise the ratings would be affirmed. The RWE on the notes of AyT Genova XI and XII indicates that the tranches have sufficient credit enhancement to support higher ratings provided the bank mitigates the increased counterparty exposure risk. Fitch expects to resolve the Rating Watches in the next six months. Improved Arrears Performance The upgrades and affirmations in AyT Genova III, IV, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X and XI reflect the robust performance of the underlying assets. As of the latest reporting periods, three- month plus arrears (excluding defaults) ranged from 0.2% (AyT Genova III) to 0.9% (AyT Genova XII) of the current pool balances, well below Fitch's three-month plus arrears Spanish RMBS index of 1.9%. Meanwhile, cumulative gross defaults (defined as loans in arrears by more than 18 months) ranged between 0.1% (AyT Genova IV) and 1.3% (AyT Genova XI) of the initial portfolio balance. These levels are also well below the average (4.7%) for other Fitch-rated prime Spanish RMBS. Fitch expects this strong performance to persist due to the more stable macroeconomic environment. Low Excess Spread The structures of the Genova transactions generate limited gross excess spread, which is on average 13bp (per annum) of the outstanding portfolio balance. While the cash flows generated by the structures have thus far been sufficient to fully provision for defaulted loans and ensure reserve fund draws remain limited, if any, in the more seasoned deals (AyT Genova III, IV, VI, VII and VIII), this has not been the case in the more recent transactions. The reserve funds of AyT Genova IX, X, XI and XII are presently between 69% and 89% of their target amounts. Fitch has taken into account the gross excess spread available in each transaction when assessing the overall credit profile of the rated notes. The agency has maintained Negative Outlooks on the junior tranche of AyT Genova IX and the mezzanine and junior tranche of AyT Genova X reflecting its expectations of future reserve fund draws. Loan Modifications The Genova portfolios comprise loans that have been subject to modifications, ranging between 0.2% and 4% of the current portfolio. To account for the weaker credit profile of these borrowers, particularly those that have received maturity extensions in excess of two years (on average 87% of total modifications), Fitch has applied additional default probability stresses. The analysis showed that available credit enhancement is sufficient to withstand such stresses. The agency notes that AyT Genova X is exposed to the largest shares of modified loans (4%) and has therefore maintained a Negative Outlook on the class C and D notes. RATING SENSITIVITIES Deterioration in asset performance may result from economic factors. An increase in new defaults and associated pressure on excess spread levels and reserve funds beyond Fitch's expectations could result in negative rating actions. The rating actions are: AyT Genova Hipotecario III Class A (ES0370143002) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0370143010) affirmed at 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable AyT Genova Hipotecario IV Class A (ES0370150007) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0370150015) affirmed at 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable AyT Genova Hipotecario VI Class A2 (ES0312349014) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0312349022) upgraded to 'AAsf' from 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable Class C (ES0312349030) upgraded to 'A+sf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Stable Class D (ES0312349048) affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative AyT Genova Hipotecario VII Class A2 (ES0312343017) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0312343025) upgraded to 'AAsf' from 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable Class B (ES0312343033) affirmed at 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable AyT Genova Hipotecario VIII Class A2 (ES0312344015) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0312344023) upgraded to 'AAsf' from 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable Class C (ES0312344031) affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable Class D (ES0312344049) affirmed at 'BB+sf'; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative AyT Genova Hipotecario IX Class A2 (ES0312300017) upgraded to 'AA+sf' from 'AA-sf'; off RWP, Outlook Stable Class B (ES0312300025) affirmed at 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable Class C (ES0312300033) affirmed at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable Class D (ES0312300041) affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Negative AyT Genova Hipotecario X Class A2 (ES0312301015) 'AA-sf'; Rating Watch revised to Negative from Positive Class B (ES0312301023) 'A+sf'; placed on RWN Class C (ES0312301031) affirmed at 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Negative Class D (ES0312301049) affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Negative AyT Genova Hipotecario XI Class A2 (ES0312302013) 'AA-sf'; Rating Watch revised to Evolving from Positive Class B (ES0312302021) 'Asf'; placed on RWE Class C (ES0312302039) 'BBB+sf'; placed on RWE Class D (ES0312302047) upgraded to 'BBBsf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable AyT Genova Hipotecario XII Class A (ES0312285002) 'AA-sf'; Rating Watch revised to Evolving from Positive Class B (ES0312285010) 'Asf'; placed on RWN BANCO GRUPO: Fitch Affirms & Withdraws 'BB+' Long-Term IDR ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Spain-based Banco Grupo Cajatres, S.A.'s (BCaja3) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+', Short-term IDR at 'B' and Support Rating at '3'. Fitch has subsequently withdrawn all ratings. The withdrawal follows the announcement that BCaja3 was legally merged into its parent bank, Ibercaja Banco S.A. (BB+/Stable) on October 1, 2014. As a result, BCaja3 has ceased to exist as a separate legal entity. BCaja3's IDRs have been driven solely by parental support since its acquisition by Ibercaja Banco on July 23, 2013. CAJA INGENIEROS 2: Moody's Hikes Rating on EUR67.5MM Notes to Ba1 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings of seven notes, confirmed the ratings of one note and affirmed the ratings of three notes in four Spanish residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions: Caja Ingenieros AyT 2, FTA, Caja Ingenieros TDA 1, FTA, FTA Santander Hipotecario 1 and FTA Santander Hipotecario 8. The rating action concludes the review of eight notes placed on review on March 17, 2014, following the upgrade of the Spanish sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and the resulting increase of the local-currency country ceiling to A1 from A3. The sovereign rating upgrade reflected improvements in institutional strength and reduced susceptibility to event risk associated with lower government liquidity and banking sector risks. Ratings Rationale The rating actions reflect (1) the increase in the Spanish local- currency country ceiling to A1 and (2) sufficiency of credit enhancement in the affected transactions; for the revised rating levels. For FTA Santander Hipotecario 8, the rating action also reflects the correction of a model input error. In prior rating actions, the recovery rate input in the model was inconsistent with the MILAN input, therefore the tail of the asset loss distribution was generated incorrectly. The model has now been adjusted, and the rating action reflects this change. -- Reduced Sovereign Risk The Spanish sovereign rating was upgraded to Baa2 in February 2014, which resulted in an increase in the local-currency country ceiling to A1. The Spanish country ceiling, and therefore the maximum rating that Moody's assigns to a domestic Spanish issuer including structured finance transactions backed by Spanish receivables, is A1 (sf). -- Key collateral assumptions The key collateral assumptions for Caja Ingenieros AyT 2, FTA and Caja Ingenieros TDA 1, FTA have not been updated as part of this review. The performance of the underlying asset portfolios remain in line with Moody's assumptions. Moody's also has a stable outlook for Spanish ABS and RMBS transactions. For FTA Santander Hipotecario 1 and FTA Santander Hipotecario 8, Moody's has reassessed its lifetime loss expectation taking into account the collateral performance of the transactions to date. FTA Santander Hipotecario 1 has shown a deteriorating growth rate in defaults where the cumulative defaults as a percentage of the original pool balance reached 0.65% versus 0.43% in January 2013. As a result, Moody's increased its key expected loss (EL) assumption as a percentage of the original pool balance from 0.70% to 0.95%. For FTA Santander Hipotecario 8, the portfolio has shown improving growth rate in delinquencies. The 90 days delinquencies as a percentage of the current pool balance reached 1.28% versus 5.86% in February 2013. As a result, Moody's reduced its key expected loss (EL) assumption as a percentage of the original pool balance from 10.00% to 8.80%. -- Exposure to Counterparties Moody's rating analysis also took into consideration the exposure to key transaction counterparties. Including the roles of servicer, account bank, and swap provider. The rating action takes into account servicer commingling exposure to Caja de Ingenieros for Caja Ingenieros AyT 2, FTA and Caja Ingenieros TDA 1, to Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) for FTA Santander Hipotecario 1 and FTA Santander Hipotecario 8 and account bank exposure to Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) for FTA Santander Hipotecario 8. Moody's also assessed the exposure to Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) acting as swap counterparty in FTA Santander Hipotecario 1 and FTA Santander Hipotecario 8 when revising ratings. Principal Methodology The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014. Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating: Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include (1) further reduction in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected, (3) deleveraging of the capital structure and (4) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties. Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and (4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties. List of Affected Ratings Issuer: Caja Ingenieros AyT 2, FTA EUR382.5M A Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR67.5M B Notes, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: Caja Ingenieros TDA 1, FTA EUR257.2M A2 Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR5.4M B Notes, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR5.4M C Notes, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: FTA SANTANDER HIPOTECARIO 1 EUR1718.4M A Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf) EUR53.4M B Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf) EUR46.9M C Notes, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade EUR56.3M D Notes, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade Issuer: FTA SANTANDER HIPOTECARIO 8 EUR640M A Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf) EUR160M B Notes, Confirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade TRANSHOTEL: Enters Three-Month Voluntary Administration Period -------------------------------------------------------------- Juliet Dennis at travelweekly reports that Transhotel has entered a three-month voluntary administration period as it seeks a buyer to resolve cash-flow issues. According to travelweekly, the company continues to trade and will honor bookings. It is in the process of contacting all travel agents and supplier partners to reassure them bookings are safe and to avoid any "knee-jerk reaction" in the trade, travelweekly relates. Under Spanish law, a company can put itself into voluntary administration for three months to get its finances back in order or prior to closing down, travelweekly discloses. The company applied to the Spanish courts and was put into voluntary administration on Oct. 7, travelweekly relays. It is understood Transhotel, which works with agents including Advantage, Hays Travel and Worldchoice in the UK and has offices worldwide, has been looking for a buyer for some time, travelweekly notes. Transhotel is a trade-only bed bank based in Spain. The company employs 900 people and works with 60,000 hotels and 78,200 travel agencies in the 24 countries in which it operates. ============= U K R A I N E ============= CREATIVE GROUP: Fitch Lowers Issuer Default Rating to 'CC' ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded OJSC Creative Group Public Limited's (Creative) foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'CC' from 'CCC'. Fitch has also downgraded Creative's National Long-term rating to 'B-(ukr)' from 'A-(ukr)'. All the ratings have been placed on Rating Watch Evolving (RWE). The downgrade reflects Creative's high exposure to banking lines renewal. In particular, Fitch became aware of a non-payment event on its pre-export financing (PXF) line and of a negotiated standstill with its syndicate of banks. The company is currently in negotiations with these banks on the terms of renewing its PXF line for the new marketing season and expects to downsize the facility. While the non-payment event is commensurate with a 'C' IDR, Fitch believes there is a high likelihood that negotiations with banks will be successfully finalized in the coming weeks. This, along with Creative's export-oriented business, is reflected in the 'CC' IDR. Creative is currently facing near-term liquidity issues, largely prompted by the difficult operating environment in which it operates, as opposed to a solvency problem. As a result, Fitch consider that a 'CC' IDR reflects the balance of risks. The inability to procure a new PXF line, potentially translating into a wider liquidity problem, or cross-default with other bank lines could accelerate a default situation. However, if Creative successfully negotiates new terms for its PXF line Fitch expects to upgrade the IDR back to 'CCC'. KEY RATING DRIVERS High Dependence on Working Capital Funding As a sunflower seed processor, Creative strongly depends on the availability of working capital financing, which is usually extended for one year. This leads to a high proportion of short- term debt and high refinancing risks, which the company typically faces between August and October. The existing problems with the renewal of the PXF facility, which is required to cover the company's needs for the 2014-15 marketing season, highlight high refinancing and liquidity risks. In Fitch's view, the current standstill agreement with its PXF lenders and reported non- payment event for USD81m under this line is mitigated by the advanced negotiations with banks for new financing. Weak Operating Environment Creative's ratings reflect the ongoing heightened uncertainty regarding the political and economic situation in the Ukraine, which may ultimately threaten the ability of Ukrainian corporates to meet their debt obligations. Maintaining zero exposure to Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk regions, Creative stays outside the military conflict in the Eastern part of the country and Ukraine- Russia tensions. Weak Liquidity Creative's liquidity position for the next 12 months will be subject to its ability to successfully renegotiate its short-term bank lines and generate at least USD70 million-USD100 million in FCF in 2014-15, which could be supported by reduced and more effective working capital management and expected improvement in EBITDA margin in 2014-15. Fitch evaluates the current liquidity profile as weak, which is captured by the existing rating. Lower Capex Plans Fitch understands that Creative is currently focused on working capital financing and debt reduction in the medium term. Consequently, Fitch expects the company to grow organically and through higher utilization of recently added capacity (in soybean crushing and spreads segments) with capex at about 2%-3% of revenues, which we consider sustainable given the high capex in 2011/2012. Improving Cash Flow Generation Fitch expects revenues to decline by more than 20% in 2014 due to sharp decline in soft commodity prices. This will translate into a less severe reduction in EBITDA thanks to large supply of sunflower seeds in Ukraine this year and the dilution of hryvnia costs (when translated into US dollars). Fitch estimates that interest burden on mostly US dollar-denominated debt will remain significant for the company. Better profitability combined with reduced working capital requirements and lower capex should translate into positive FCF from 2014. However, profit margins may be volatile driven by future input/selling prices, local currency trends and capacity utilization rates based on the availability of sunflower seeds in the key procurement season. Sound Business Model Despite its near-term liquidity constraints, Creative remains the second-largest sunflower seed processor in Ukraine, after Kernel. Access to foreign currency driven by a primarily export-oriented revenue base from its sunflower crushing business (around 78% of group FY13 revenues and 68% of EBITDA) helps insulate it from further depreciation of the local currency. Ukraine is a strong net exporter of sunflower oil in bulk and Fitch expects this situation to continue if sunflower seed availability remains. Some degree of business diversification by product and export destinations, as well as Creative's vertically-integrated business model, which translate into healthy group operating margins, further support the sound business model. RATING SENSITIVITIES Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating action and resolution of RWE include: -- A liquidity shortage caused by inability to procure new PXF lines for new season prompting a permanent standstill situation, possibly exacerbated by uncured covenant breaches. -- Cross-default with other bank lines triggering wider restructuring talks with banks. Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating actions, including resolution of RWE and an upgrade of the local currency and foreign currency IDRs to 'CCC', include: -- Ability to procure new working capital lines (PXF) at reasonable terms supporting liquidity needs for at least the next six to nine months. -- Stabilization of free cash flow generation in 2014 turning strongly positive in 2015 (at least mid to high single digits of sales) shoring up liquidity beyond 12 months; Future positive rating actions will remain subject to a sustained improvement in the issuer's operating environment in Ukraine. KYIV CITY: Moody's Affirms 'Caa3' Issuer & Sr. Unsecured Ratings ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed its foreign and local currency issuer ratings and foreign-currency senior unsecured rating on the City of Kyiv at Caa3, following the city's repayment of its UAH1.125 billion (around US$85 million) senior unsecured bonds, which matured on October 6, 2014. The outlook for the ratings is negative. The city repaid the bonds within the established cure period using proceeds from a private placement of new senior unsecured bonds worth UAH2.625 billion (about $200 million) set to mature in October 2015. Moody's understands that the city intends to use the remaining funds from the placement, which is currently in process, to repay the series 2C, 2D and 2E bonds (totaling UAH1.5 billion, or around US$115 million), maturing in October and November 2014. Ratings Rationale The rating affirmation reflects Moody's view that the current Caa3 rating properly reflects the risks related to the city's ability to repay its obligations and of potential losses for investors. The proceeds from the new bonds will ease some of the immediate refinancing risk pressure; however, Kyiv's refinancing risk remains very high. In 2014-2015, the city has to repay US$250 million of Eurobonds and more than UAH5.4 billion of local currency bonds (about US$415 million), which amount to more than 50% of its annual operating revenues. The city's poor fiscal performance will constrain its ability to accumulate the cash it will need to repay the bonds. As a result, to make the payments, Kyiv will have to rely on refinancing the bonds, which could be difficult given its limited access to financial markets. Negative Outlook Moody's negative outlook reflects primarily the very high refinancing risk of outstanding debt that could materialize in the short to medium term. The outlook is aligned with Moody's negative outlook for Ukraine's government bond rating. What Could Move the Rating Down/Up A downgrade is possible in the event of any of the following: (1) a default or restructuring of the existing debt, which would lead to higher investor losses than Moody's current expectations; (2) another downgrade to the sovereign rating; (3) a material shortfall in the city's own-source revenue, resulting in a significant financing deficit; and (4) an increase in debt. Although unlikely, upward rating pressure could arise in the event of structural improvements in the city's debt and liquidity metrics and upward action to the sovereign rating. Specific economic indicators as required by EU regulation are not applicable for this entity. On October 9, 2014, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Kyiv, City of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks. The principal methodology used in this rating was Regional and Local Governments published in January 2013. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action, if applicable. KYIV CITY: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Issuer Default Rating; Outlook Neg. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the City of Kyiv's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'CC' and its National Long-term rating at 'BB(ukr)'. The agency has also affirmed the city's Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'C'. The Outlook on the National Long-term rating is Negative. KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation follows the timely remedy of the overdue bond repayment (UA4000142707) within its grace period. The repayment became possible following the issuance of a new domestic bond on October 8, 2014. Fitch treats the transaction as timely repayment of the debt obligation, having previously stated that this debt could be subject to distressed debt exchange (DDE) criteria. The ratings also factor in prevailing material refinancing risk, significant exposure to forex risk, weak macro-economic forecast, low propensity of the state support amidst weakened Ukraine's institutional framework and continued political uncertainty. Kyiv issued series H senior unsecured domestic bonds of UAH2.625 billion (UA4000186878) with 360 calendar days to maturity. Simultaneously the city repaid its UAH1.125 billion domestic bond, which matured on October 6, 2014. The city plans to repay domestic bonds (UA4000142715, UA4000142723 and UA4000142731) maturing in October-November 2014 with proceeds from the new bonds. In Fitch's view, the city's cash holdings of UAH570 million at end-August 2014 (2013: UAH333 million) should be sufficient to honor coupon payments on bonds maturing until end-2014. Nonetheless, Fitch considers Kyiv's exposure to refinancing risk as material. The domestic capital markets remain weak, while the peak of the city's repayments will be in 12-15 months. The city will be refinancing its outstanding USD250 million eurobonds and domestic bonds coming due in 2H15. Additionally, the city remains exposed to unhedged forex risk, exacerbated by the Ukranian hryvnia's depreciation by 39% against the dollar since end-2013. The macro-economic forecast is negatively affecting the city's ratings. Fitch expects Ukraine's real GDP to shrink by at least 6.5% in 2014, and assumes zero growth in 2015 and 2016 given political uncertainty. The negative recession impact will be partially mitigated by the well-diversified economy. Fitch expects volatility in Kyiv's budgetary performance due to the lower predictability of potential fiscal changes as national parliamentary elections are scheduled on Oct. 26, 2014. Fitch assesses Ukraine's ability to support Kyiv as having low propensity to materialize in 2014-2015, considering the national government's limited financial flexibility. Fitch previously viewed Kyiv's status as Ukraine's capital and the administration's integration with the central government as a supporting factor for the city's ratings. RATING SENSITIVITIES Any adverse change leading to partial or full containment of the city's ability and/or willingness to service its debt would lead to a downgrade. Sustainable restoration of the city's financial flexibility leading to withdrawal of material downside credit risks would lead to an upgrade. The rating actions are: -- Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs: affirmed at 'CC' -- National Long-term ratings: affirmed at 'BB(ukr)'/Negative -- Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at C -- UAH4.275bn senior unsecured domestic bonds: affirmed at 'CC'/'BB(ukr)' -- UAH2.625bn senior unsecured domestic bonds: rated at 'CC'/'BB(ukr)' -- Senior unsecured eurobonds: affirmed at 'CC' UKRAINE: S&P Raises National Scale Ratings From 'uaBB+' ------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its national scale ratings on Ukraine to 'uaBBB-' from 'uaBB+'. As a "sovereign rating" (as defined in EU CRA Regulation 1060/2009 [EU CRA Regulation]), the ratings on Ukraine are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in Art 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, including publication in accordance with a pre-established calendar. Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasons for the deviation. In this case, the reason for the deviation is the publication of new national scale rating criteria on Sept. 22, 2014. RATIONALE The raising of the national scale rating on Ukraine follows S&P's review of the rating under its new national scale rating criteria, which it published on Sept. 22, 2014. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee agreed that the key rating factors were unchanged. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. RATINGS LIST To From Ukraine Ukraine National Scale uaBBB-/--/-- uaBB+/--/-- VAB BANK: Moody's Puts 'Caa3' Rating on Review for Downgrade ------------------------------------------------------------ Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade VAB Bank's Caa3 local currency deposit rating and the bank's National Scale Rating (NSR) of Caa3.ua. Concurrently, the rating agency has affirmed the standalone E bank financial strength rating (BFSR), which is now equivalent to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ca (formerly caa3), the Not-Prime short-term local- and foreign-currency deposit ratings, and the Ca long-term foreign- currency deposit rating. Ratings Rationale The rating action was driven by a material deterioration of VAB Bank's standalone credit profile and the bank's recent failure to pay interest on its US$88 million Loan Participation Notes due 2019 (not rated by Moody's), prompting the rating agency to lower the bank's BCA to ca from caa3. Rationale for Review Moody's placed VAB Bank's Caa3 global local currency deposit rating and Caa3.ua National scale rating on review for downgrade because the rating agency believes that, without access to additional external liquidity and capital support, VAB Bank's unsecured depositors will incur heavier losses than implied by the current deposit rating of Caa3. The review will therefore focus on the bank's ability to obtain external support in the coming weeks, in accordance with its recently announced rehabilitation plan, under which VAB Bank expects to stabilize its weak liquidity profile with the help of foreign investors and the National Bank of Ukraine. Moody's says that the increasingly challenging economic conditions and volatile operating environment in Ukraine has been adversely affected by heightened geopolitical tensions that exerted significantly more pressure on overall economic activity, the local currency, and depositor confidence. VAB Bank's liquidity profile has been severely affected both by an increased level of problem loans and by a substantial deposit outflow during 2014. Moody's also notes that a large portion of VAB Bank's loan book (around 30% at year-end 2013) was denominated in foreign currency, and the material devaluation of the hryvna (around 37% since year-end 2013) reduced the debt-servicing capacity of those borrowers that are exposed to foreign-currency loans but have no (or limited) foreign-currency income, thus exerting significant pressure on VAB Bank's asset quality. What Could Move the Ratings Up/Down Considering the review for downgrade, there is limited upwards pressure on VAB Bank's ratings; however, the review could be concluded with a confirmation of the ratings if the bank stabilizes its weak liquidity profile. At the same time, VAB Bank's ratings could be downgraded if the bank fails to stabilize its liquidity profile, thus increasing the risk of heavier losses for its uninsured depositors than currently anticipated. The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Banks published in July 2014. Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in June 2014 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings". Headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine, VAB Bank reported total assets of UAH23.5 billion (US$2.0 billion) as of July 1, 2014 (in accordance with unaudited local GAAP financials). =========================== U N I T E D K I N G D O M =========================== DTZ UK GUARANTOR: Moody's Assigns 'B2' Corporate Family Rating -------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a B2 corporate family rating to DTZ and assigned ratings to its prospective secured credit facilities, which include two first lien term loans (each rated B1), a second lien term loan (rated B3), and a first lien revolver (rated B1). The B1 first lien debt ratings (one notch above the CFR) reflect the significant amount of second lien debt and unsecured obligations in the company's capital structure. The B3 second lien debt rating reflects the large proportion of first lien debt in the capital structure. The rating outlook is stable. DTZ is a global property services business that provides a full array of real estate solutions to occupiers, owners, investors, and developers worldwide. The company's primary services include facilities management, property management, leasing, capital markets, and other advisory and property services. The following ratings were assigned with a stable outlook: DTZ UK Guarantor Limited -- Corporate family rating at B2 DTZ U.S. Borrower, LLC co-issuing with DTZ Aus Holdco Pty Limited -- $470mm first lien term loan at B1, $280mm first lien delayed draw term loan at B1, $200mm first lien revolver at B1, $210mm second lien term loan at B3 Ratings Rationale DTZ is currently a division of ASX-listed UGL Limited, but will soon be acquired by a consortium comprised of TPG Capital, PAG Asia Capital, and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board for about $1 billion (expected closing in Nov 2014). In turn, a consortium- backed entity has also announced plans to acquire Cassidy Turley (CT), a US-based commercial real estate services provider (expected closing in Dec 2014). The proposed bank financing package will be used, in combination with equity, to help fund these two acquisitions. DTZ's B2 corporate family rating reflects its strong market position, as the combined company will be the third largest global property services provider and well-positioned to grow within its highly fragmented industry. The company is led by a strong and experienced management team that includes Brett White, former CEO and President of CBRE, with deep industry experience and vast customer relationships. Moody's notes as a key positive that DTZ derives a high proportion of earnings from contractual property management and facilities management businesses. Customer retention rates have traditionally been very high, providing DTZ with a strong base of recurring income, while modest capex requirements in turn help it to generate substantial free cash flow. We view the company's transaction based businesses, such as capital markets, as an important component of its integrated platform, although these revenues are more volatile (with the exception of leasing revenues which tend to be relatively stable) and expected to remain a modest and manageable component of its overall cash flows. DTZ's key credit challenge is a pro forma capital structure that is highly levered, as well as its private ownership structure that limits transparency and capital markets access. Moody's also expects DTZ will be managed with relatively aggressive financial policies as it seeks growth amidst a consolidating industry. We believe that DTZ's combination with CT offers the potential for substantial revenue synergies, as CT will help DTZ penetrate the important US commercial real estate market via cross-selling of its offerings. However, it will take time to execute on this strategy. Moreover, even though DTZ and CT have a strong track record of successfully integrating acquisitions, integration risks remain. The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that DTZ will successfully integrate the CT acquisition, with gradual improvement in market share and margins across its businesses. The outlook also anticipates that leverage will decline from peak levels over the course of 2015. DTZ's ratings could be upgraded if the company were to permanently reduce leverage as defined by Net Debt/Recurring EBITDA (including Moody's standard adjustments for pensions and operating leases), demonstrate growth in free cash flow and retained cash flow as % of debt, and grow operating margins. The ratings could be downgraded should leverage increase meaningfully from pro forma levels or if operating margins were to decline. Alternatively, a large levered acquisition or integration issues associated with CT would also result in a ratings downgrade. This is the first time Moody's has assigned ratings to DTZ. DTZ, currently a division of ASX-listed UGL Limited, is a global property services business that provides a full array of real estate solutions to occupiers, owners, investors, and developers worldwide. The company's primary services include facilities management, property management, leasing, capital markets, and other advisory and property services. DTZ UK Guarantor Limited's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors that Moody's considers relevant to the credit profile of the issuer, such as the company's (i) business risk and competitive position compared with others within the industry; (ii) capital structure and financial risk; (iii) projected performance over the near to intermediate term; and (iv) management's track record and tolerance for risk. Moody's compared these attributes against other issuers both within and outside DTZ UK Guarantor Limited's core industry and believes DTZ UK Guarantor Limited's ratings are comparable to those of other issuers with similar credit risk. HONOURS PLC: Fitch Affirms 'BBsf' Rating on Class D Notes --------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Honours Plc;s notes: Class A1 notes affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable Class A2 notes affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable Class B notes affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable Class C notes affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable Class D notes affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable The transaction is a securitization of UK not-for-profit student loans originated by the UK government. The loans were originated to individuals who commenced higher education courses prior to September 1998. KEY RATING DRIVERS Cumulative defaults to date have remained in line with Fitch's expectations, and all notes deficiencies have been cleared with excess spread. In Fitch's opinion, the ratings are consistent with the credit enhancement (CE) as of Sept. 2014, which was 34.5% for the class A1 and A2 notes, 18.5% for the class B notes, 9.9% for the class C notes and 4.1% for the class D notes. Pro-rata redemption, which started in August 2013 following the fulfillment of the relevant note amortization condition, does not affect the notes' ratings and will mean credit enhancement remains stable at current levels. A significant percentage of the pool remains in deferment status (85.6% of the non-defaulted loan portfolio) as they do not currently qualify for repayment. The UK sovereign is committed to indemnify the transaction for any such loans still outstanding 25 years after origination at the principal outstanding amount and any unpaid interest, provided that they are not in arrears. In effect, the transaction would be exposed to the credit of these borrowers only if these loans become due for repayment. The transaction also benefits from significant excess spread as the yield on the loans after the subsidy netting (a swap of the loans' RPI for the notes' Libor provided by the UK government) is 2.69% over Libor, either in the form of cash collections from repayment loans or capitalization of unpaid interest on deferred loans. In Fitch's opinion, the full repayment of the class D notes in particular is reliant on this large excess spread. Fitch considers the risk of portfolio collections falling short of the interest due under the notes is now remote, despite the small size (5.6%) of the non-defaulted portfolio in repayment status. This is because indemnities to be paid by the UK government in relation to cancelled loans, already largely complementing portfolio receipts, will become more substantial from 2017 onwards. At the same time, the reset of the RPI-index of the loans (which could increase the subsidy netting to be paid to the UK government if it rises) will not take place before September 2015. The GBP20 million liquidity reserve in an account with Deutsche Bank (A+/Stable/F1) provides further support for the timely payment of interest on the class A and B notes, if an unexpected significant hike in RPI was to take place by March 2015. RATING SENSITIVITIES Fitch estimates that over the past year, around 5% of loans in deferred status have become due for repayment, or 'reinstated'. Based on the assumption that deferred loans will be reinstated at a pace of 5% per year, Fitch calculated that the class D notes would sustain 20% defaults among these reinstated loans. The corresponding figures for the class C and B notes are 32% and 54%, respectively. This analysis is also made on the conservative assumption that, while historically slowing down as the portfolio ages, the pace of reinstatement deferred loans will remain stable. On the basis of this analysis, Fitch sees the current ratings as adequately reflecting the resilience of each class of notes. The notes 'ratings, particularly the class D notes, may be negatively impacted by an acceleration in the reinstatement of deferred loans, as this could mean more delinquencies, defaults as well as a shorter portfolio duration and less excess spread. PUNCH TAVERN A: Fitch Withdraws 'D' Ratings on 7 Note Classes ------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned ratings to Punch Tavern Finance plc's (Punch A) newly issued super senior hedge (SSHN), A1(V), A2(V), and M3 notes. It has also affirmed the A1(R) and A2(R) notes, which have been redesignated as A1(F) and A2(F) notes and downgraded and withdrawn the ratings of the existing junior notes: GBP123.4 million floating-rate SSHN due 2021: assigned 'BB+'; Outlook Stable GBP67.5 million Class A1(V) fixed-rate notes due 2026: assigned 'BB'; Outlook Stable GBP45.8 million Class A2(V) fixed-rate notes due 2025: assigned 'BB'; Outlook Stable GBP300 million Class M3 floating-rate notes due 2027: assigned 'B-'; Outlook Stable GBP202.5 million Class A1(F) fixed-rate notes due 2026: affirmed at 'BB'; Outlook Stable GBP137.4 million Class A2(F) fixed-rate notes due 2025: affirmed at 'BB'; Outlook Stable GBP96.7 million Class M1 fixed-rate notes due 2026: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from Rating Watch Negative (RWN) and withdrawn GBP398.7 million class M2(N) floating-rate notes due 2029: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn GBP79.5 million class B1 fixed-rate notes due 2026: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn GBP83.7 million class B2 fixed-rate notes due 2029: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn GBP134 million class B3 floating-rate notes due 2031: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn GBP85.1 million class C(R) fixed-rate notes due 2033: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn GBP67.8 million class D1 floating-rate notes 2032: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN, and withdrawn The rating actions reflect the restructuring of the Punch A transaction, which involves the amendment of the maturity dates for the remaining class A notes, and new amortization profiles and covenants, among others. The restructuring further involves a partial debt for equity swap and nominal debt haircuts for the existing class M1, M2(N), B1, B2, B3, C(R) and D1 notes. Such junior notes cease to exist and have been partly replaced by the newly issued class M3 and unrated class B4 notes. Consequently the class M1, M2(N), B1, B2, B3, C(R) and D1 notes were downgraded to 'D', removed from Rating Watch Negative and the ratings were subsequently withdrawn. As part of the restructuring, some interest rate swaps have been broken, resulting in the crystallization of material mark-to- market swap liabilities. To finance such payment obligations, the SSHN have been issued, ranking pari passu to the swap payments in the priority of payments. The ratings of the A(F) notes and the A(V) are aligned given that a failure to pay interest (or final principal) on the more junior ranking A(V) notes would result in an issuer event of default due to the A(V) notes' non-deferability. Typically UK whole business securitizations allow debt tranches ranking below the most senior notes to defer interest and scheduled principal payments if available cash is insufficient to cover debt service. The most senior ranking notes in Punch A -- the SSHN -- are rated one notch above the non-deferrable subordinate ranking class A(F) and A(V) notes due to their earlier maturity in 2021 and lower refinance risk compared with the class A notes. Because the SSHN mature in 2021 they are therefore not exposed to a potential inability of the subordinate ranking class A notes to refinance at their respective maturities in 2025 and 2026. However, a payment default under the class A notes prior to the SSHN's full repayment would still trigger an issuer event of default, affecting the then outstanding SSHN. Consequently, the rating uplift of the SSHN is limited to only one notch despite its favorable credit metrics. Fitch believes that in case of an issuer event of default, the note trustee at its sole discretion shall, and if so directed by the class A noteholders, give a notice to the security trustee stating that the notes are immediately due and payable. KEY RATING DRIVERS (KRDs) Industry Profile -- Midrange While the pub sector in the UK has a long history, trading performance for some assets has shown significant weakness in the past with the sector being considered in a structural decline for the last three decades due to demographic shifts, greater health awareness and the growing presence of competing offerings. Exposure to discretionary spending is high and revenues are therefore inherently linked to the broader economic cycle. Competition is viewed as high including off-trade alternatives and barriers to entry are low notwithstanding increasingly more demanding licensing laws and regulations applicable to the sector. Despite the on-going contraction, the eating- and drinking-out market is viewed as sustainable in the long-term supported by the strong pub culture in the UK. Sub-KRDs: Operating environment: Weaker; Barriers to entry: Midrange; Sustainability: Midrange Company Profile -- Midrange The Punch securitizations have underperformed comparable pub transactions during the last five years, partly due to poor operational performance of its pubs and its over-leveraged capital structure, requiring repeated financial support and covenant waivers to avoid a borrower event of default. EBITDA per pub has stabilized over the last two years mainly as a result of extensive disposals of poorly performing non-core pubs and increased investments in the core estate following years of capex underspend. The leased/tenanted business model makes it more challenging for the Punch group to adapt to the growing importance of the eating-out market in the UK. Furthermore, less visibility with respect to the tenants' profitability means that the sustainability of the cash flows generated by tenanted pubs is more difficult to estimate. However, the continued disposals of non-core pubs, combined with increased capex invested in the core estate, are expected to result in an improved overall quality of the estate in the foreseeable future. Sub-KRDs: Financial performance: Weaker; Company operations: Midrange; Transparency: Weaker; Dependence on operator: Midrange; Asset quality: Weaker Debt Structure - Midrange (SSHN, A1(F), A2(F), A1(V), A2(V)) and Weaker (M3) The Midrange assessment of the debt structure in respect to the senior debt is a reflection of the partial repayment from cash sweep (SSHN, A1(V), A2(V)) and scheduled amortization (A1(F) and A2(F)), which contributes to some de-leveraging. This therefore mitigates -- to some extent -- concerns about the ability to refinance debt (or the reliance on core pub disposal proceeds) at or prior to legal maturity. Untypically for UK whole business securitizations, only the most junior class M3 and B4 notes can defer interest payments. A failure to pay interest and scheduled amortization (or final principal) on the A(F) and A(V) notes would result in an issuer event of default due to the A notes' non-deferability. This aligns the probability of default of the SSHN and the class A(F) as well as class A(V) notes much closer together than in other tranched UK whole business securitizations. The risk of rising interest rates, owing to the unheged floating- rate SSHN instrument, has been taken into account in Fitch base case assumptions. The junior ranking class M3 notes are not expected to benefit from any amortization prior to maturity. The security package remains largely unchanged for the rated debt instruments. Operational and financial covenants are satisfactory, although Fitch notes the exclusion of the bullet repayments for the purpose of calculating the free cash flow debt service coverage ratio (FCF DSCR) as well as the possibility to prevent a covenant breach through the availability of disposal proceeds, which are part of the free cash flow definition. The inclusion of a leverage covenant is, however, seen as mitigating this relative weakness. The group's ability to upstream cash from the securitized group by way tax payments due on the accrual of interest on subordinated loans has been addressed given that the new subordinated loans will not bear interest. Hence, only a group service payment of up to 2% of EBITDA can be upstreamed (i.e. paid to outside the securitized group) if a) no borrower event of default has occurred and b) the net senior leverage is below the closing level. A reduced liquidity facility is structured to cover 18 months of peak debt service, however, this represents effectively only interest payments on the rated notes and scheduled amortization with regard to the class A1(F) and A2(F) notes (excluding final bullets). Sub-KRDs: Debt profile: Midrange (SSHN, classes A1(F), A2(F), A1(V), A2(V)) and Weaker (class M3); Security package: Stronger (SSHN) and Midrange (classes A1(F), A2(F), A1(V), A2(V), M3); Structural features: Midrange RATING SENSITIVITIES The ratings could change if the transaction performs materially above or below Fitch' base case, especially in respect of disposal proceeds from the non-core estate. Furthermore, the anticipation of a failure to refinance maturing debt tranches would lead to negative rating actions. SUMMARY OF CREDIT This transaction is a restructuring of the existing Punch A securitization. As of June 2014 the transaction consists of 2,210 pubs (1,751 pubs in the core estate and 459 in the non-core estate). After severe declines in EBITDA since 2008, over the last three years, EBITDA per pub has stabilized (CAGR of 1.5% since 2011), helped by continuously disposing of poorly performing non-core assets (23% by number of pubs since 2011). Fitch forecasts FCF DSCRs (the smaller of the average and the median) to be 5.5x (SSHN), 2.6x (class A1(F) and A2(F)), 1.6x (class A1(V) and A2(V)) and 0.8x (class M3) calculated over a hypothetical 25-year period. Fitch's base case incorporates average disposal proceeds of GBP230,000 per non-core pub, around 20% less than assumed by management. It should be noted that our FCF DSCR calculation is different to the calculation as per the bond documentation. As the rated notes are not expected to fully amortize from operating cash flow on a fixed schedule by their respective legal maturities, Fitch calculated a synthetic debt service based on a 25-year annuity- debt profile. At each interest payment date the annuity is updated to reflect the then current debt outstanding and the remaining years left (until year 25) to better compare FCF DSCRs with those of other (fully amortizing) pub securitizations. While the FCF DSCR of the SSHN and the class A(F) notes appear very high, the ratings are affected by Fitch's assessment of the industry and company profile containing weaker assessments for a number of sub-KRDs as well as the close alignment with the probability of default of the class A(V) notes. Fitch expects gross debt to EBITDA multiples (taking the swap mark-to-market into account) to decline to 1.3x (SSHN), 3x (A1(F) and A2(F)), 4x (A1(V) and A2(V)) and 6.7x (M3) by 2021 (the maturity of SSHN) from initially 2x (SSHN), 4.7x (A1(F) and A2(F)), 5.6x (A1(V) and A2(V)) and 8x (M3). Hence, Fitch assumes in its base case that even the senior ranking SSHN cannot be fully repaid out of excess cash flow, and partly rely on being refinanced (or on core pub disposal proceeds). Further refinancing needs arise when the class A notes reach maturity in 2025 and 2026. Restructuring As a result of the restructuring, existing junior notes (debt tranches ranking below class A notes) ceased to exist and have been replaced by newly issued M3 and B4 notes. The existing A1(R) and A2(R) notes (together the A(R) notes) were split into A(F) (75%) and A(V) (25%) notes whereas the A(R) notes have been redesignated as the new A1(F) and A2(F) notes. The A(V) notes rank below the A(F) notes in priority of payments. While the floating-rate class M3 notes are fully hedged to mitigate the risk of potentially rising interest rates, the SSHN does not benefit from any interest rate hedging. Fitch has assumed interest rate up-stresses in its base case to test the structure's resilience in this respect. New leverage covenants have been introduced which incentivize the borrower to deleverage the transaction, also using core pub disposals if necessary (up to a maximum of 20% of all core pubs are permitted to be disposed of). Fitch expects in its base case that the anticipated deleveraging profile (as per the decreasing net senior leverage covenant profile) cannot be met without further core pub disposals. The liquidity facility was reduced to GBP135.3m to cover 18 months of peak debt interest in respect of the SSHN, the class A notes and the class M3 notes as well as scheduled amortization on the class A(F) notes (excluding the final maturity bullet repayments). The sub-limit available for the class M3 notes is GBP38.5m. Furthermore, the AMBAC guarantee in respect of class A2(R), M2(N) and B3 notes has been released as a condition of the restructuring. The class B4 (most) junior notes have been issued in part in consideration of the extinguished class M1, M2(N), B1, B2, B3, C(R) and D1 notes. Such new B4 notes will not benefit from fixed and floating charges over the borrower's assets as typically seen in UK whole business securitizations but just feature security over the shares in the Punch A holding company. Furthermore, their coupon is only paid in cash to a small part (1.5% p.a.) and may be fully paid in kind upon a borrower event of default (and if so directed by the controlling class). PUNCH TAVERN B: Fitch Withdraws 'D' Ratings on 3 Note Classes ------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Punch Tavern Finance B Ltd's (Punch B) newly issued swap loan, affirmed its senior debt (A3, A6 and A7 notes) and downgraded and withdrawn the ratings of the existing junior debt (B1, B2 and C1 notes): GBP49 million floating-rate swap loan due 2019: assigned 'BB', Outlook Stable GBP146.9 million Class A3 fixed-rate notes due 2021: affirmed at 'B+'; Outlook Stable GBP220 million Class A6 fixed-rate notes due 2022: affirmed at 'B+'; Outlook Stable GBP149.1 million Class A7 fixed-rate notes due 2024: affirmed at 'B+'; Outlook Stable GBP61.5 million Class B1 fixed-rate notes due 2025: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from Rating Watch Negative (RWN); and withdrawn GBP99.4 million Class B2 fixed-rate notes due 2028: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN and withdrawn GBP125 million Class C1 floating-rate notes due 2035: downgraded to 'D' from 'C'; removed from RWN and withdrawn The rating actions reflect the restructuring of the Punch B securitization debt, which involves the amendment of the maturity date for the senior debt, new amortization profiles and covenants, among others. The restructuring further involves a partial debt-for-equity swap and nominal debt haircuts for the junior tranches. The existing junior tranches have ceased to exist and are replaced by newly issued unrated class B3 notes. Consequently the Class B1, B2 and C1 tranches were downgraded to 'D', removed from RWN and withdrawn. As part of the restructuring, some interest rate swaps pertaining to the floating rate A8 (redeemed in full on the closing date) and C1 (fully extinguished at the closing date) have been broken, resulting in the crystallization of material mark-to-market swap liabilities. To finance such payment obligations, a new super senior tranche (the swap loan) has been issued ranking senior in the waterfall to the class A notes. The most senior ranking note in Punch B - the swap loan - is rated two notches above the non-deferrable subordinate-ranking class A notes. This is a reflection of the rapid repayment of the swap loan with transaction cash flow within four years of the financial close. As the swap loan is due in 2019, it is not exposed to a potential inability of the subordinate-ranking class A notes to refinance at their respective maturities in 2021, 2022 and 2024. However, a payment default under the class A notes prior to the swap loan's full repayment would still trigger an issuer event of default, affecting the then outstanding swap loan. Consequently, the rating uplift of the swap loan is limited to two notches despite its favorable credit metrics. Fitch believes that in case of an issuer event of default, the note trustee at its sole discretion shall, and if so directed by the class A noteholders, give a notice to the security trustee stating that the notes are immediately due and payable. KEY RATING DRIVERS Industry Profile -- Midrange While the pub sector in the UK has a long history, trading performance for some assets has shown significant weakness in the past, with the sector being in a structural decline for the last three decades due to demographics shifts, greater health awareness and the presence of a larger variety of competing offerings. Exposure to discretionary spending is high and revenues are, therefore, inherently linked to the broader economic cycle. Competition is viewed as high, including off- trade alternatives, and barriers to entry are low, notwithstanding increasingly more demanding licensing laws and regulations applicable to the sector. Despite the on-going contraction, the eating- and drinking-out market is viewed as sustainable in the long-term, supported by the strong pub culture in the UK. Sub-KRDs: Operating environment: Weaker; Barriers to entry: Midrange; Sustainability: Midrange Company Profile -- Midrange The Punch securitizations have underperformed comparable pub transactions during the last few years, partly due to poor operational performance of its pubs and its over-leveraged capital structure, requiring repeated financial support and covenant waivers to avoid a borrower event of default. EBITDA per pub has stabilized over the last two years mainly as a result of extensive disposals of poorly performing non-core pubs and increased investments in the core estate following years of capex underspend. The leased / tenanted business model makes it more challenging for the Punch group to adapt the growing importance of the eating-out market in the UK. Furthermore, less visibility with respect to the tenants' profitability means that the sustainability of the cash flows generated by tenanted pubs is more difficult to estimate. The continued disposals of non-core pubs, combined with increased capex in the core estate, should result in an improved overall quality of the estate in the foreseeable future. Sub-KRDs: Financial performance: Weaker; Company operations: Midrange; Transparency: Weaker; Dependence on operator: Midrange; Asset quality: Weaker Debt Structure -- Midrange (swap loan)/Midrange (class A) The "Midrange" assessment of the debt structure in respect to the swap loan is a reflection of the favorable repayment profile due to the combination of front-loaded scheduled amortization and the cash sweep mechanism. Untypically for UK whole business securitizations, only the most junior class B3 notes can defer interest payments. Failure to pay interest and scheduled amortization (or final principal) on the A notes would result in an issuer event of default due to the A notes' non-deferability. This aligns the probability of default of the swap loan and the class A much closer together than in other tranched UK whole business securitizations. The interest rate exposure of the floating-rate swap loan is deemed immaterial given its small size and quick repayment. The "Weaker" debt profile assessment for the class A notes reflects the partially amortizing and the large bullet maturities in 2021, 2022 and 2024, which cannot be met out of excess cash flows in Fitch' base case, requiring either a debt refinancing or significant disposals of core pubs. The security package remains largely unchanged for the rated debt instruments. Operational and financial covenants are satisfactory, although Fitch notes the exclusion of the bullet repayments for the purpose of calculating the free cash flow debt service coverage ratio (FCF DSCR) as well as the possibility to prevent a covenant breach through the availability of disposal proceeds as part of the free cash flow definition. The inclusion of a leverage covenant is, however, seen as mitigating this relative weakness. A reduced liquidity facility is structured to cover 18 months of peak debt service; however, this is effectively only interest payments and scheduled principal (excluding final bullets). Sub-KRDs: Debt profile: Midrange (swap loan)/Weaker (class A); Security package: Stronger; Structural features: Midrange RATING SENSITIVITIES The ratings could change if the transaction performs materially above or below Fitch' base case, especially in respect of disposal proceeds from the non-core estate. Furthermore, a failure to refinance maturing debt tranches would lead to a negative rating action. SUMMARY OF CREDIT This transaction is a restructuring of the existing Punch B securitization. As of June 2014 the transaction consisted of 1,561 pubs (1,144 pubs in the core estate and 417 in the non-core estate). After severe declines in EBITDA since 2008, over the last three years, EBITDA per pub has stabilized (CAGR of 1.1% since 2011), helped by continuously disposing of poorly performing non-core assets (24% by number of pubs since 2011). The forecast FCF DSCR of the swap loan appears high with annual coverage in Fitch base case at above 7x in the four years to the swap loan's repayment. However, the more relevant metric to reflect the close alignment of the probability of default of the swap loan with that of the class A notes would be an average coverage of 1.3x during the first four years in relation to the combined debt service of the swap loan and class A notes. Fitch forecasts FCF DSCRs (the smaller of the average and the median) to be around 1.14x in relation to the class A notes calculated over a hypothetical 25-year period. Fitch's base case incorporates average disposal proceeds of GBP220 per non-core pub, around 20% less than that assumed by management. It should be noted that our FCF DSCR calculation is different to the calculation as per the bond documentation. As the class A notes are not expected to fully amortize out of operating cash flow by their respective legal maturities, Fitch calculated a synthetic debt service based on a 25-year annuity-debt profile. At each interest payment date the annuity is updated to reflect the then current debt outstanding and the remaining years left (until year 25) to better compare FCF DSCRs with that of typical fully amortizing pub securitizations. Fitch expects senior leverage to decline to 6.5x prior to the final maturity of class A3 in 2021 from 7.4x currently. Taking into account accrued cash within the securitization, senior leverage would be further reduced to 5.7x. Nevertheless, in the Fitch base case GBP14m of class A3 notional are expected to remain after the application of cash flow and excess spread, which necessitates a refinancing or repayment through proceeds from disposal of core pubs. Further refinancing needs will arise as the final maturities of class A6 and A7 are reached in 2022 and 2024 and the repayment amounts of GBP190m and GBP96m become due. Restructuring As a result of the restructuring the A8 notes have been fully redeemed at the closing date. The legal maturity of the remaining tranches have been brought forward to 2021 (A3), 2022 (A6) and 2024 (A7) and the amortization schedule has been re- profiled introducing (partial) bullet maturities. A senior ranking swap loan has been issued to finance the crystallization of swap breakage costs. The swap loan will be repaid via cash-sweep and scheduled amortization and is expected to be fully repaid by 2018 in Fitch' base case. Once the swap loan has been repaid, excess cash will be trapped. As the fixed amortization schedule of the class A notes entails sizeable bullets at maturity (58%, 86%, 63% for the A3, A6, A7 notes, respectively), the cash trap becomes an important feature to mitigate refinance risk. New leverage covenants have been introduced which incentivize the borrower to deleverage the transaction, also using core pub disposals if necessary (up to a maximum of 20% of all core pubs are permitted to be disposed of). The liquidity facility was reduced to GBP89.3 million to cover 18 months of peak interest and scheduled amortization (excluding the bullet repayments at final maturity) in respect of the swap loan and the class A notes. Furthermore, the MBIA guarantee in respect of class A7 and class A8 notes has been released as a condition of the restructuring. Coupons on the class A7 notes increased by the respective guarantee fee, which would otherwise have been payable to MBIA. As part of the restructuring, class B1 and B2 were exchanged for new class B3 notes and equity. The exchange took place below par, i.e. accounting for 95% of the class B1 and B2 outstanding notional. Similarly class C1 was swapped into equity at below par, albeit with a more severe haircut of 45%. Consequently, from a ratings standpoint the B1, B2 and C1 notes are deemed to have defaulted. The new B3 notes do not benefit from fixed and floating charges over the borrower's assets as typically seen in UK whole business securitizations, but just benefit from security over the Punch B holding company shares. In addition, the B3 coupon may fully pay in kind upon a borrower event of default and if so directed by the controlling class. RANGERS FOOTBALL: Mike Ashley Calls for Removal of Two Bosses ------------------------------------------------------------- Roddy Forsyth at The Telegraph reports that Mike Ashley has called for the removal of Rangers Football Club's two top bosses amid financial turmoil at the Scottish football club. According to The Telegraph, the retail tycoon, who recently doubled the size of his Rangers stake to 8.92%, has called for a shareholder vote on the removal of chief executive Graham Wallace and finance boss Philip Nash. It comes only six days after the Telegraph predicted that the Sports Direct owner would use his increased shareholding -- he became the second largest owner of club stock -- to make a move on the Ibrox club, The Telegraph notes. Rangers, as cited by The Telegraph, said it would try to get the motion thrown out, saying its board "is united in its support of the executive team". The club said it would resist his maneuver on the grounds that an annual general meeting is due to be held before Dec 31, suggesting Mr. Ashley's call for an extraordinary general meeting is wasteful and needless, The Telegraph relates. Should Mr. Ashley succeed in having an EGM called, it would have to be held within 28 days, The Telegraph states. Rangers managed to secure backers for a crucial GBP3.1 million share offer last month, which allowed it to pay its creditors, The Telegraph recounts. However the open offer was undersubscribed by around GBP800,000, meaning the club must launch yet another share issue by the end of the year to meet December's wage bill, The Telegraph relates. Mr. Ashley did not partake in the emergency open offer, but did splash out on buying more than four million existing shares from investment group Hargreave Hale six days ago, The Telegraph notes. The purchase nearly doubled his stake from 5% to 8.9%, according to The Telegraph. About Rangers Football Club Rangers Football Club PLC -- http://www.rangers.premiumtv.co.uk/ -- is a United Kingdom-based company engaged in the operation of a professional football club. The Company has launched its own Internet television station, RANGERSTV.tv. The station combines the use of Internet television programming alongside traditional Web-based services. Services offered include the streaming of home matches and on-demand streaming of domestic and European games, which include dedicated pre-match, half-time and post- match commentary. The Company will produce dedicated news magazine and feature programs, while the fans can also access a library of classic European, Old Firm and Scottish Premier League (SPL) action. Its own dedicated television studio at Ibrox provides onsite production, editing and encoding facilities to produce content for distribution on all media platforms. =============== X X X X X X X X =============== * Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets ----------------------------------------------- Total Shareholders Total Equity Assets Company Ticker (US$MM) (US$MM) ------- ------ ------ ------ AA LTD 2968492Z LN -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/GBX EO -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/ LN -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/GBX EU -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/ IX -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/ EB -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AAAAL S1 -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC 1023859D SW -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC 2XA GR -1456621510 4737064769 AA PLC AA/ TQ -1456621510 4737064769 AARDVARK TMC LTD 1768297Z LN -1779177.627 149732584.7 ABBOTT MEAD VICK 648824Q LN -1685905.65 168264096.2 ABF GRAIN PRODUC 1276922Z LN -48465868.55 670357516.4 ACCIONA INMOBILI 4029797Z SM -49405609 1695566442 ACEROS PARA LA 1656Z SM -263940.0005 119468482.1 ACIS GROUP LTD 4159557Z LN -21335866.02 133912152.4 ACS AIRCRAFT FIN 4491555Z ID -11819999.97 131524997.4 ACTUACIONES ACTI AGR SM -102379482.8 427577243.8 ADDASTA HOLDING 3814224Z NA -223750.1218 117273756.7 ADRIA AIRWAYS 54757Z SV -51862326.31 134757004 ADRIA CABLE BV 4044453Z NA -62348693.94 188829025.3 ADVANCE DISPLAY ADTP PZ -3015579018 2590008061 AEA TECHNOLO-FPR AATF LN -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLO-FPR AATF PZ -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLO-NPR AATN LN -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLO-NPR AATN PZ -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY AAT PO -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY AAT VX -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY EAETF US -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY AAT IX -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G AAT PZ -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G 1005182D GR -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G AEATF US -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G AATGBP EO -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G AAT LN -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G 0884037D EO -251538429 142000079.4 AEA TECHNOLOGY G 0884036D EU -251538429 142000079.4 AEGEK AEGEK EU -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK AEGEK EO -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK AEGEK GA -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK AGEKF US -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK AEGEK PZ -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK AGK GR -107572284.1 366319845.1 AEGEK S.A. 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ENA HOLDING ZVHR EO -304033160.5 774883403.9 ZWINGER OPCO 6 B 3821644Z NA -103722296.7 611138495.1 ********* Monday's edition of the TCR delivers a list of indicative prices for bond issues that reportedly trade well below par. Prices are obtained by TCR editors from a variety of outside sources during the prior week we think are reliable. Those sources may not, however, be complete or accurate. The Monday Bond Pricing table is compiled on the Friday prior to publication. Prices reported are not intended to reflect actual trades. Prices for actual trades are probably different. Our objective is to share information, not make markets in publicly traded securities. Nothing in the TCR constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security of any kind. It is likely that some entity affiliated with a TCR editor holds some position in the issuers' public debt and equity securities about which we report. Each Tuesday edition of the TCR contains a list of companies with insolvent balance sheets whose shares trade higher than US$3 per share in public markets. At first glance, this list may look like the definitive compilation of stocks that are ideal to sell short. Don't be fooled. Assets, for example, reported at historical cost net of depreciation may understate the true value of a firm's assets. A company may establish reserves on its balance sheet for liabilities that may never materialize. The prices at which equity securities trade in public market are determined by more than a balance sheet solvency test. Each Friday's edition of the TCR includes a review about a book of interest to troubled company professionals. All titles are available at your local bookstore or through Amazon.com. Go to http://www.bankrupt.com/booksto order any title today. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co- published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA. Valerie U. Pascual, Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Europe subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter Chapman at 215-945-7000 or Nina Novak at 202-241-8200. * * * End of Transmission * * *