/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/141202.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, December 2, 2014, Vol. 15, No. 238
Headlines
B E L G I U M
NYRSTAR N.V.: S&P Assigns B- Corp. Credit Rating; Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
FCC MINOTAURE 2004-1: Fitch Affirms BB Rating on Class C Notes
HERACLES: Tribunal Accepts Business Plan; Exits Administration
SNCM: Marseilles Court Places Firm Into Administration
H U N G A R Y
HUNGARY: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Issuer Default Rating
I R E L A N D
CASTLE PARK: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'B-(EXP)sf'
HARVEST CLO I: Moody's Affirms 'Caa1' Rating on Class E Notes
SMURFIT KAPPA: Moody's Hikes Corporate Family Rating to 'Ba1'
SMURFIT KAPPA: Fitch Raises Issuer Default Rating to 'BB+'
I T A L Y
MANUTENCOOP FACILITY: Moody's Affirms B2 Corporate Family Rating
MILANI & FRAGOR: Court Sets Jan. 16 Hearing Set for Liquidator
TELECOM ITALIA: S&P Revises Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB+' CCR
K A Z A K H S T A N
EKIBASTUZ GRES-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' IDR; Outlook Stable
KAZANORGSINTEZ: Fitch Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B-' IDR
ZAMAN-BANK: S&P Affirms & Withdraws 'CCC+/C' Counterparty Ratings
L U X E M B O U R G
TAKKO FASHION: Moody's Lowers Corporate Family Rating to 'Caa1'
M A C E D O N I A
SKOPJE MUNICIPALITY: S&P Affirms 'BB-' ICR; Outlook Stable
N E T H E R L A N D S
CAIRN CLO IV: Moody's Assigns '(P)B2' Rating to Class F Notes
CAIRN CLO IV: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating to Class F Notes
DE SIONSBERG: Faces Closure; Owes EUR40 Million
HARBOURMASTER PRO-RATA 2: Fitch Affirms B Rating on Cl. B2 Notes
SILVER BIRCH I: Moody's Raises Rating on Class E Notes to 'Ba2'
TELEFONICA EUROPE: Moody's Rates EUR850MM Hybrid Securities 'Ba1'
UCL RAIL: Moody's Withdraws 'Ba2' Corporate Family Rating
P O L A N D
CIECH SA: Moody's Raises Corporate Family Rating to 'B1'
R U S S I A
BPS-SBERBANK: Fitch Affirms 'B-' IDR; Outlook Stable
MECHEL OAO: MDM Can Still Participate in Debt Management
S P A I N
AYT CAJA MURCIA I: S&P Lowers Rating on Class C Notes to 'B-'
CASER SA: Moody's Affirms 'B' IFSR & Changes Outlook to Positive
NH HOTELES: Fitch Affirms 'B-' Long-Term IDR; Outlook Stable
PYMES SANTANDER 10: Moody's Rates EUR760MM Serie C Notes 'Ca'
SANTANDER CONSUMER 2014-1: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'CCsf'
UCI 10: S&P Lowers Rating on Class B Notes to 'B-'
S W E D E N
SAAB AUTOMOBILE: NEVS Wants Bankruptcy Protection Extended
VOLVO TREASURY: Moody's Rates Sub. Hybrid Securities '(P)Ba1'
U K R A I N E
VAB BANK: Moody's Cuts Local Currency Deposit Rating to 'Ca'
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
BAKKAVOR: S&P Revises Outlook to Positive & Affirms 'B-' CCR
BATHROOMS365: In Liquidation on "Changing Market Conditions"
CO-OPERATIVE BANK: Set to Fail Bank of England's Stress Test
GEMINI ECLIPSE 2006-3: Fitch Cuts Rating on Class A Notes to 'D'
GREAT HALL NO. 1: S&P Raises Rating on Class Ea Notes to 'B+'
LONDON & REGIONAL: Moody's Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'B1'
TAGGART GROUP: Owners Begin Legal Battle With Ulster Bank
X X X X X X X X
* S&P Takes Various Rating Actions on European Synthetic Tranches
* Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets
*********
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B E L G I U M
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NYRSTAR N.V.: S&P Assigns B- Corp. Credit Rating; Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its 'B-' long-term
corporate credit rating to Belgium-based integrated zinc producer
Nyrstar N.V. The outlook is stable.
At the same time, S&P assigned its 'B-' issue rating to the
company's EUR350 million senior unsecured notes, issued by
Nyrstar Netherlands (Holdings) B.V., with a recovery rating of
'4', indicating S&P's expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery
in the event of a payment default.
These ratings are in line with the preliminary ratings S&P
assigned on Sept. 1, 2014.
S&P's assessment of Nyrstar's business risk profile reflects its
position in a fragmented and volatile zinc-refining industry that
suffers from overcapacity. In addition, the company has a
limited ability to differentiate itself from peers, given the
commodity nature of the product. S&P's assessment is constrained
by the company's relatively small scale in the context of the
global metals and mining industry, as well as by very low and
volatile profitability. The latter is due to exposure to
volatile zinc prices and treatment charges, as well as foreign
exchange risk, because its revenues are largely in U.S. dollars,
while costs are predominantly in euros and Australian dollars.
S&P nevertheless notes positively the company's position as one
of the largest zinc producers globally, its high operating
diversity, and its integration into zinc mining, although its
mining cash costs are high. The business risk profile is also
supported by the company's cost optimization program, which was
one of the factors behind an improved performance in first-half
2014, when adjusted EBITDA reached EUR111 million, compared with
EUR127 million for full-year 2013.
S&P's assessment of Nyrstar's financial risk profile reflects its
expectation that the company's adjusted gross debt-to-EBITDA
ratio will be above 5x in 2014 and 2015, and that free operating
cash flow (FOCF) will remain significantly negative as the
company implements its strategic capital expenditure program over
the next two years. At the same time, the positive impact on
EBITDA from these investments will not appear before the second
half of 2016. S&P has only partly factored in such medium-term
upside, as it takes into account the volatility of the company's
metrics and the risk of delays and cost overruns inherent to
investment projects such as redevelopment of the Port Pirie
facility and upgrading the zinc smelter network. S&P also notes
foreign exchange risk, as most of the company's debt is
denominated in euros while revenues are predominantly in U.S.
dollars.
S&P's adjusted debt figure includes EUR360 million of various
debt-like obligations, notably a precious metal streaming
agreement, short-term silver prepayment transactions of EUR150
million, and asset-retirement obligations of EUR129 million.
However, S&P's assessment of the financial risk profile takes
into consideration the lower refinancing risk of these debt-like
obligations compared with financial debt. Finally, as per S&P's
methodology for companies with a "weak" business risk profile, it
has not netted the cash on balance sheet from its adjusted debt,
apart from approximately EUR70 million earmarked to repay the
remainder of the 2015 bond. S&P nevertheless factors in the
cushion provided by a substantial cash balance of EUR550 million
post refinancing, as this will be needed to cover projected
negative FOCF in the coming years under S&P's base case.
"We have revised up our financial forecast slightly, factoring in
expected solid performance in the second half of 2014, based on
stronger zinc prices and a weaker euro and Australian dollar, in
which the company's costs are denominated. However, we believe
that the company's EBITDA will remain volatile, due to high
sensitivity to the zinc price (a $100/metric ton change in zinc
price leads to a change in EBITDA of about EUR29 million), the
zinc treatment charge (a $25/metric ton change leads to a change
in EBITDA of about EUR29 million), and the dollar-to-euro
exchange rate (a EUR0.01 change leads to a EUR18 million change
in EBITDA)," S&P said.
The stable outlook reflects Nyrstar's improved operating
performance, together with S&P's assessment of the company's
"adequate" liquidity, following the completed transactions. S&P
expects the increased cash balances and the SCTFF to cover
substantial negative FOCF in the coming years resulting from the
strategic capital expenditure plan. The outlook also factors in
S&P's base-case expectation that zinc prices won't weaken in the
next couple of years.
S&P may lower the rating if the company's liquidity materially
weakens. This could stem from its inability to strengthen
liquidity (including extending BBF maturities) well ahead of the
large May 2016 EUR0.4 billon bond maturity. S&P believes this
refinancing risk would be exacerbated if accompanied by an
unexpected downturn in the industry and therefore lower EBITDA
and more negative FOCF than S&P currently assumes.
An upgrade is unlikely in the near term. EBITDA upside remains
uncertain, but could ultimately be driven by the finalization of
the capital expenditure program and improvement of FOCF in 2016.
At a higher rating level, S&P would most likely also expect
adjusted debt to EBITDA to have sustainably fallen, to below 5x.
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F R A N C E
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FCC MINOTAURE 2004-1: Fitch Affirms BB Rating on Class C Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed four Electricite de France (EDF;
A+/Negative/F1) and Gaz de France (GDF) originated RMBS
transactions, as:
Electra 1
Class A4 (FR0000504227): affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (FR0000504235): affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
Loggias 2001-1
Class A (FR0000488462): affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (FR0000488470): affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
Loggias 2003-1
Class A (FR0010029231): affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (FR0010029256): affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
FCC Minotaure Compartment 2004-1
Class A (FR0010302687): affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (FR0010302794): affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class C (FR0010302802): affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Sound Asset Performance
Across the four transactions, Electra 1, the most seasoned deal,
has the highest cumulative defaults rate at 1.45% of the initial
pool balance. Loggias 2001 reported cumulative defaults of 1.37%
compared with 1.33% last year. Cumulative defaults follow a
similar evolution for Loggias 2003 and FCC Minotaure at 0.98% and
0.73%, respectively (vs. 0.94% and 0.71% as of Oct. 2013).
For all transactions, the issuers purchased the underlying pools
at discount, providing overcollateralization (OC), with a view to
divert excess principal to interest payments during the
transaction's life. This was to ensure that the yield on the
loans is sufficient to cover the interest due on the notes. By
reducing the remaining collateral balance of the portfolio faster
than scheduled, prepayments reduce the impact of the structural
negative excess spread carried by the transactions. They have
remained stable around 4% (+/-2%) in all transactions.
Real Estate Risk-Remote Structures
These transactions are backed by loans granted by EDF and GDF to
their employees to purchase real estate properties. The monthly
installments are directly deducted from employees' salaries or
pensions (when they retire, employees receive their pensions from
the company). Defaults are only recorded in the case of death,
temporary or permanent disability of a borrower, and when over-
indebtedness, bereavement and/or change in family status lead to
an early termination. Moreover, most of the loans do not benefit
from security (such as mortgages or guarantees) or from insurance
against death or disability. As a consequence, a default is
likely to lead to a loss of the outstanding loan balance at the
time of default.
Amortization Accelerating Note Redemption
Under normal amortization (pro-rata amortization of the rated
notes), a fixed portion of principal receipts (resulting from the
purchase discount) were diverted as excess spread into the
interest account. All transactions have now moved to accelerated
amortization, under which principal receipts can only be diverted
to cover shortfalls in senior fees and interest payment to the
note-holders. As a result, notes amortize faster and OC is less
eroded by principal diversion.
Sufficient OC
There has been a focus on tail risk for these deals. Fitch
deemed the current level of OC in each transaction sufficient to
cover the corresponding tail risk.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The transaction might not be sensitive to real-estate and macro-
economic changes but the default, and consequently, the losses,
are directly dependent on death, disability, over-indebtedness
and change in family status within the portfolio. An increase in
any of these factors could result in faster OC erosion and
negative rating action.
Conversely, higher prepayments could be a driver of positive
rating action for all transactions.
HERACLES: Tribunal Accepts Business Plan; Exits Administration
--------------------------------------------------------------
Decanter reports that Heracles, the troubled online wine merchant
formerly known as 1855.com, has been released from administration
by the Tribunal de Commerce in Paris.
The Tribunal accepted the company's business plan, which included
offering replacement bottles of Bordeaux Superieux to clients who
were still owed Bordeaux en primeur wines, Decanter relates.
Facing more than 350 legal complaints, largely over its failure
to deliver Bordeaux en primeur wines dating back to 2005,
Heracles went into administration in October 22, 2013, Decanter
recounts.
Heracles claimed that the group's level of debt was EUR8 million,
Decanter relays. However, it was reported that claims from
creditors totaled EUR42 million, equating to EUR25 million for
Heracles (1855.com) and EUR11 million for Chateauonline, Decanter
notes.
Under the business plan, larger creditors will be repaid in full
over eight years, Decanter says. Creditors owed between EUR300
and EUR5,000 were offered 2012 Bordeaux Superieux Cheteau Eyraux,
Decanter states.
Heracles, as cited by Decanter, said that more than 500 clients
had accepted its recovery plan.
SNCM: Marseilles Court Places Firm Into Administration
------------------------------------------------------
IHS Maritime 360 reports that French Mediterranean ferry operator
SNCM was put officially into administration by the Marseilles
court of commerce.
The court has put the company into "observation" for six months,
during which potential buyers can examine its accounts before
bidding for part or all of its business, according to IHS
Maritime 360.
IHS Maritime 360 notes that French press reports relate that two
potential bidders had made themselves known to the court.
Daniel Berrebi, head of Mexico-based Baja Ferries, told the Le
Marin Web site he had written to the court with a firm offer for
the company, the report relates.
The report discloses that Marseilles businessman Christian Garin,
a former shipowner and chairman of the Marseilles port authority,
who is acting with a group of unidentified investors, said he was
seeking access to the company's financial data with a view to
preparing a firm offer.
Mr. Berrebi told Le Marin he was prepared to offer permanent
contracts to 800 of the company's 1,800 full-time employees and,
if the business performed well, could take on more staff next
year, the report notes.
The court decision had been expected after the Veolia group, the
firm's principal shareholder, said administration was the only
way forward for the company, which must repay public aid totaling
EUR440 million ($550 million) ruled illegal by the European
Commission, the report notes.
In a statement obtained by IHS Maritime, SNCM said the court's
decision would let it avoid immediate liquidation and help it
find a buyer, the report discloses.
SNCM said it expects bidders to appreciate a business plan it has
prepared showing how the firm can stay out of the red, the report
adds.
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H U N G A R Y
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HUNGARY: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Issuer Default Rating
-----------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Hungary's Long-term foreign and local
currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BB+' and 'BBB-',
respectively. The Outlooks are Stable. The issue ratings on
Hungary's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have
also been affirmed at 'BB+' and 'BBB-', respectively. The
Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'BBB' and the Short-term
foreign currency IDR at 'B'.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Hungary's 'BB+' rating balances high level of development
relative to peers against high public and external debt. Current
account surpluses since 2010 are supporting a marked improvement
in external metrics. Budget deficits below 3% of GDP over the
medium term will help achieve some gradual decline in public
debt. GDP growth has rebounded in 2014 but the unpredictable
business environment may affect investment in future. Membership
of the European Union (EU) provides financial support and
supports political stability.
Hungary's 'BB+' IDRs also reflect the following key rating
drivers:
Fitch expects GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2014 (after 1.5% in 2013),
markedly higher than other EU countries although lower than the
BB peers' median (3.7%). High investment (+16% in 1H14) is
supported by exceptional EU fund disbursements and accommodative
monetary policy. A marked fall in unemployment, to 7.1% in the
three months to Oct. 2014 from 9.8% a year ago, has supported
consumption. Fitch expects GDP growth will slow to 2.3% in 2015
as the previous EU fund cycle comes to an end. Gradual
improvement in the global environment will support growth of 2.5%
in the medium term.
Fitch forecasts the general government deficit will remain below
3% of GDP by 2016, reflecting the authorities' commitment to
comply with the EU 3% deficit rule. The agency expects the
deficit will increase to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 after 2.4% in 2013
due to higher investment and targeted measures in the electoral
year context. In 2015 and 2016, the deficit will be broadly
stable, at 2.8% and 2.7% of GDP respectively, with no significant
tightening measures expected.
Consistent with the deficit path, general government debt will
follow a slowly declining path at 76.4% of GDP by 2016 from 77.3%
in 2013. Assuming moderate deficits (primary balance at 1% of
GDP on average) and GDP growth (2.5%), Fitch expects debt will
decline but remain high, at 71% of GDP by 2022. The authorities
intend to refinance part of the maturing FX debt with Hungarian
forint debt to reduce the share of FX debt in the medium term
(from 40% of the total at end-2013) and external refinancing
needs.
The combination of the strong current account surplus and
external debt deleveraging will continue to support a marked
decline in net external debt, expected to be 40.5% of GDP by end-
2016 from 64.7% in 2013 (using Fitch's methodology, which differs
from national methodology). Fitch expects the current account
surplus will be 4.2% of GDP in 2014 (after 4.2% in 2013) driven
by the trade surplus and EU transfers. Fitch expects the surplus
to moderate but remain strong in the medium term, at 3.1% of GDP
by 2016. Exposure to Russia (3.1% of exports) is limited.
A series of new laws will lead to a conversion of FX loans to
households into forint loans and a marked reduction in interest
rates paid to banks. The move will strengthen households'
balance sheet but further weaken the already fragile banking
sector. The total net cost for banks is HUF600bn (1.9% of GDP)
in the form of lower debt installments paid by households. Some
banks have raised extra capital. Fitch expects lending to the
private sector will continue to contract, by 1.7% in real terms
in 2014 and 0.3% in 2015.
The result of the April general election and October local
elections confirmed the political appeal of Fidesz and its KDNP
partner. The electoral success can be attributed to weak
opposition, a strong party discipline and the charisma of Prime
Minister Viktor Orban. Fitch expects the government will
continue its unconventional economic policy stance, notably by
favoring the interest of the party's popular political base to
the detriment of foreign businesses. Policy action will be
constrained by the lack of budgetary room for maneuver.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that upside and
downside risks to the rating are currently balanced. The main
risk factors that, individually or collectively, could trigger
positive rating action are:
-- A sustained reduction in the public debt ratio and further
lowering of the foreign currency share.
-- Continued, sustained reduction in external indebtedness.
-- Consistent stronger GDP growth supported by greater policy
stability and a gradually improved external environment
The main risk factors that, individually or collectively, could
trigger negative rating action are:
-- Sustained fiscal slippage that endangers debt
sustainability.
-- Policy missteps that pose risks to the inflation and
currency outlook, which could in turn exacerbate macro-
financial risks.
-- A global macro-financial or geopolitical shock, leading to
a severe recession or loss of financial market access.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
-- Fitch assumes the Hungarian authorities will maintain
fiscal discipline, broadly in line with the targets
included in the Convergence Programme submitted to the EU
in April 2014.
-- Fitch assumes that under severe financial stress, support
for Hungarian subsidiary banks would come first and
foremost from their foreign parent banks.
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I R E L A N D
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CASTLE PARK: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'B-(EXP)sf'
--------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Castle Park CLO Limited notes expected
ratings, as:
Class A-1: 'AAA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class A-2A: 'AA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class A-2B: 'AA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B: 'A(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class C: 'BBB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class D: 'BB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class E: 'B-(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Subordinated notes: not rated
The assignment of the final ratings is contingent on the receipt
of final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Castle Park CLO Limited is an arbitrage cash flow collateralized
loan obligation (CLO).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
'B'/'B-' Portfolio Credit Quality
Fitch places the average credit quality of obligors in the 'B'/
'B-' range. The agency has public ratings or credit opinions on
all 59 obligors in the identified portfolio. The covenanted
maximum Fitch weighted average rating factor (WARF) for assigning
expected ratings is 34. The WARF of the identified portfolio is
32.0.
High Recovery Expectations
The portfolio will comprise a minimum 90% senior secured
obligations. Recovery prospects for these assets are typically
more favorable than for second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine
assets. Fitch has assigned Recovery Ratings to the entire
identified portfolio. The covenanted minimum weighted average
recovery rate (WARR) for assigning expected ratings is 65.5%.
The WARR of the identified portfolio is 69.9%.
Limited Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is naturally hedged for most of the portfolio,
as fixed-rate liabilities and assets represent 3.75% and between
0% and 10% of the target par amount, respectively.
Participation Agreement
At closing, the issuer will enter into a participation agreement
with Blackstone/GSO Corporate Funding Limited (the seller)
regarding the initial portfolio assets. The seller has granted
the issuer a fixed charge over the initial portfolio assets while
the title is being transferred to the issuer. A fixed charge
over such financial assets is difficult to establish, given the
lack of control. However, Fitch received a legal opinion that
the fixed charge in this case is likely to be upheld, given the
control over the accounts of the seller.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
Net proceeds from the notes issue will be used to purchase a
EUR400m portfolio of mostly European leveraged loans and bonds.
The portfolio is managed by Blackstone/GSO Debt Funds Management
Europe Limited. The reinvestment period is scheduled to end in
2019.
The transaction documents may be amended subject to rating agency
confirmation or noteholder approval. Where rating agency
confirmation relates to risk factors, Fitch will analyze the
proposed change and may provide a rating action commentary if the
change has a negative impact on the ratings. Such amendments may
delay the repayment of the notes as long as Fitch's analysis
confirms the expected repayment of principal at the legal final
maturity.
If in the agency's opinion the amendment is risk-neutral from a
rating perspective Fitch may decline to comment. Noteholders
should be aware that confirmation is considered to be given if
Fitch declines to comment.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
A 25% increase in the obligor default probability would lead to a
downgrade of up to two notches for the rated notes. A 25%
reduction in expected recovery rates would lead to a downgrade of
up to three notches for the rated notes.
HARVEST CLO I: Moody's Affirms 'Caa1' Rating on Class E Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service announced that it has taken rating
actions on the following classes of notes issued by Harvest CLO I
S.A.:
EUR32.5 million (current balance EUR 2.0M) Class C Senior
Subordinated Deferrable Floating Rate Notes due 2017, Upgraded
to Aaa (sf); previously on March 21, 2014 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)
EUR22.5 million Class D Senior Subordinated Deferrable Floating
Rate Notes due 2017, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on March
21, 2014 Affirmed Ba2 (sf)
EUR6.0 million (current balance EUR 3.9M) Class Q Combination
Notes due 2017, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on March 21,
2014 Affirmed Ba2 (sf)
EUR11.5 million Class E Senior Subordinated Deferrable Floating
Rate Notes due 2017, Affirmed Caa1 (sf); previously on March 21,
2014 Affirmed Caa1 (sf)
Harvest CLO I S.A., issued in April 2004, is a single currency
Collateralised Loan Obligation ("CLO") backed by a portfolio of
mostly high yield European and US loans managed by 3i Debt
Management Investments Limited. This transaction's reinvestment
period ended in March 2009.
Ratings Rationale
According to Moody's, the upgrade of Class C and Class D notes is
primarily a result of the continued amortization of the portfolio
and subsequent increase in the collateralization ratios since the
last rating action in March 2014 based on January 2014 data.
Moody's notes that rated liabilities paid down by EUR 15.3
million and EUR41.1 million on the March 2014 and Sep 2014
payment dates, leading to a significant increase in the
overcollateralization ratios (or "OC ratios") of the senior
notes. As per the trustee report dated September 2014, the Class
C and D OC ratios are reported at 190.41% and 125.08%, compared
to January 2014 levels of 154.14% and 111.24% respectively. These
reported increases in OC ratios do not take into account the
aggregate EUR41.1 million pay-down of Class B-1, B-2 and Class C
notes on the September 2014 payment date.
Reported WARF has deteriorated from 3788 to 3871 between January
2014 and September 2014, exposure to Caa rated assets has reduced
from 44.6% of performing par to 35.3% while reported defaults
have increased from EUR1.1 million to EUR13.7 million during this
period. The diversity score has reduced sharply from 16 to 8 in
line with the substantial amortization of the collateral pool.
The rating of the Combination Notes addresses the repayment of
the Rated Balance on or before the legal final maturity. For
Class Q, the 'Rated Balance' is equal at any time to the
principal amount of the Combination Note on the Issue Date
increased by a Rated Coupon of 6m EURIBOR accrued on the Rated
Balance on the preceding payment date minus the aggregate of all
payments made from the Issue Date to such date, either through
interest or principal payments. The Rated Balance may not
necessarily correspond to the outstanding notional amount
reported by the trustee.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in its analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on its published methodology and
could differ from the trustee's reported numbers. In its base
case, Moody's analyzed the underlying collateral pool as having a
EUR pool with performing par balance of EUR40.97 million,
defaulted par of EUR14.42 million, a weighted average default
probability of 23.74% (consistent with a WARF of 4865 over a
weighted average life of 2.0 years), a weighted average recovery
rate upon default of 43.06% for a Aaa liability target rating, a
diversity score of 7 and a weighted average spread of 3.46%.
In its base case, Moody's addresses the exposure to obligors
domiciled in countries with local currency country risk bond
ceilings (LCCs) of A1 or lower. Given that the portfolio has
exposures to 11.9% of obligors in Spain, whose LCC is A1, Moody's
ran the model with different par amounts depending on the target
rating of each class of notes, in accordance with Section 4.2.11
and Appendix 14 of the methodology. The portfolio haircuts are a
function of the exposure to peripheral countries and the target
ratings of the rated notes, and amount to 0.76% and 0.19% for
Class C and Class D notes respectively.
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectation of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on
future defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets
in the collateral pool. For a Aaa liability target rating,
Moody's assumed that 80.2% of the portfolio exposed to senior
secured corporate assets would recover 50% upon default, while
the non first-lien loan corporate assets would recover 15%. In
each case, historical and market performance and a collateral
manager's latitude to trade collateral are also relevant factors.
Moody's incorporates these default and recovery characteristics
of the collateral pool into its cash flow model analysis,
subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target rating of
each CLO liability it is analyzing.
Moody's notes that the October 2014 trustee report has been
recently published; key portfolio metrics such as WARF,
proportion of Caa rated assets, diversity score and weighted
average spread are materially unchanged from September 2014 data.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
February 2014.
Factors that would Lead to an Upgrade or Downgrade of the Rating:
In addition to the base-case analysis, Moody's conducted
sensitivity analyses on the key parameters for the rated notes,
for which it assumed a lower weighted average spread in the
portfolio. Moody's ran a model in which it reduced the weighted
average spread by 50 bp; the model generated outputs that were
within one notch of the base-case results.
This transaction is subject to a high level of macroeconomic
uncertainty, which could negatively affect the ratings on the
notes, in light of uncertainty about credit conditions in the
general economy. CLO notes' performance may also be impacted
either positively or negatively by 1) the manager's investment
strategy and behavior and 2) divergence in the legal
interpretation of CDO documentation by different transactional
parties because of embedded ambiguities.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
1) Portfolio amortization: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortization of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortization could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend
restructurings. Fast amortization would usually benefit the
ratings of the notes beginning with the notes having the highest
prepayment priority.
2) Around 81.9% of the collateral pool consists of debt
obligations whose credit quality Moody's has assessed by using
credit estimates.
3) Recoveries on defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's over-
collateralization levels. Further, the timing of recoveries and
the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's
analyzed defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market
price or the recovery rate to account for potential volatility in
market prices. Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would
have a positive impact on the notes' ratings.
4) Long-dated assets: The presence of assets that mature beyond
the CLO's legal maturity date exposes the deal to liquidation
risk on those assets. Moody's assumes that, at transaction
maturity, the liquidation value of such an asset will depend on
the nature of the asset as well as the extent to which the
asset's maturity lags that of the liabilities. Liquidation values
higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive impact on
the notes' ratings.
5) Lack of portfolio granularity: The performance of the
portfolio depends on the credit conditions of a few large
obligors. Because of the deal's low diversity score and lack of
granularity, Moody's substituted its typical Binomial Expansion
Technique analysis by a simulated default distribution using
Moody's CDOROMTM software.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
other Moody's analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision
SMURFIT KAPPA: Moody's Hikes Corporate Family Rating to 'Ba1'
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service, has upgraded the Corporate Family
Rating ("CFR") of Smurfit Kappa Group plc ("SKG") to Ba1 from Ba2
and the Probability of Default Rating ("PDR") to Ba1-PD from Ba2-
PD. Concurrently, the instrument ratings of the senior notes
issued by its guaranteed subsidiaries were upgraded to Ba1
(LGD4,50). The outlook is stable.
"We have upgraded SKG's ratings because the company has been
building a track record of resilient credit metrics and stable
profitability levels through a combination of investments in
growth and cost rationalization initiatives," says Matthias
Volkmer, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Analyst and lead
analyst for SKG. "We expect the company to gradually further
improve credit metrics despite pursuing expansive growth
opportunities and increasing dividends over time."
Ratings Rationale
SKG's Ba1 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) takes into account the
group's (i) leading market positions for paper-based packaging in
Europe and Latin America, reflected in its size with revenues of
about EUR8.0 billion generated in the last twelve months ending
September 2014; (ii) its good geographic diversification with
operations in Western Europe, the United States and certain Latin
American countries; (iii) strong and relatively stable operating
margins through the cycle, supported by its integrated
containerboard and corrugated operations; (iv) track record of
solid free cash flow generation and the application of FCF to
debt reduction, as well as (v) solid financial flexibility
including a well spread maturity profile with no major near term
debt maturities.
At the same time, the rating is constrained by (i) the cyclical
and highly competitive nature of the industry, which leaves
little room for differentiation and the resulting commodity
character of large parts of SKG's product portfolio; (ii) the
group's low segmental diversification as a result of its focus on
kraftliner, testliner and corrugated packaging products; and
(iii) leverage in terms of debt/EBITDA on a Moody's adjusted
basis with 3.9x point in time as per September 2014. Expected
improvements in underlying operating profitability and free cash
flow generation combined with debt repayments should allow SKG to
broadly maintain its leverage sustainably below 4x.
The stable outlook reflects SKG's leading position as European
producer of containerboard and corrugated containers as well as
SKG's commitment to continue its track record of gradual profit
improvements supported by fairly balanced supply and demand
conditions in Europe. Moreover, Moody's expect SKG to maintain a
balanced financial policy considering shareholder distributions,
acquisitions and deleveraging of its debt profile.
Liquidity
Moody's regard SKG's liquidity profile as good with primary
funding sources being funds from operations of EUR800 million as
per LTM September 2014 and cash on b/s amounting to EUR555
million as of September 2014. In addition, SKG has access to a
EUR625 million syndicated revolving credit facility (drawn at
EUR120 million as of Sep-14), maturing in 2018. The facility
agreement contains conditionality language, including financial
covenants, under which SKG currently has solid headroom.
Internally generated cash flows combined with undrawn facilities
should provide SKG with sufficient flexibility for its
operational needs over the next 12 to 18 months, also when
considering potential acquisitions and its progressive
shareholder distribution.
What Could Change the Rating UP
Although unlikely at this point given management's declared
growth strategy, positive rating pressure could develop if market
conditions were to support improvements including the company's
commitment to leverage metrics (as adjusted by Moody's) of below
3x debt/EBITDA and RCF/debt improving above 20% on a sustained
basis.
What Could Change the Rating DOWN
Negative rating pressure could build if leverage (as adjusted by
Moody's) moves above 4x debt/EBITDA on a sustainable basis or
RCF/debt falls below 15%, or if SKG was unable to generate
positive free cash flows. Also, a large debt-financed acquisition
or material increases in shareholder distributions could
negatively impact the company's rating in conjunction with a
macroeconomic slowdown.
List of Affected Ratings:
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Group plc
Probability of Default Rating, Upgraded to Ba1-PD from Ba2-PD
Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Acquisitions
Senior Unsecured, Upgraded to Ba1, LGD4 -50% from Ba2, LGD4-50%
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Treasury Funding Limited
Senior Unsecured, Upgraded to Ba1, LGD4 -50% from Ba2, LGD4-50%
Outlook Actions:
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Group plc
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Positive
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Acquisitions
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Positive
Issuer: Smurfit Kappa Treasury Funding Limited
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Positive
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Paper
and Forest Products Industry published in October 2013. Other
methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-
Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA
published in June 2009.
Smurfit Kappa Group plc is Europe's leading manufacturer of
containerboard and corrugated containers as well as specialty
packaging, such as, bag-in-box packaging of liquids like water or
wine. The group also holds the leading position for its major
product lines in Latin America. SKG generated revenues of
EUR8.0 billion in the last twelve months ending September 2014.
SKG is listed on the London and Irish Stock Exchanges.
SMURFIT KAPPA: Fitch Raises Issuer Default Rating to 'BB+'
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ireland-based packaging company
Smurfit Kappa Group plc's (SKG) Long-term foreign currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BB'. The Outlook is Stable.
The agency has also upgraded the senior unsecured ratings of
Smurfit Kappa Acquisitions and Smurfit Kappa Treasury Funding to
'BB+' from 'BB'.
The upgrade reflects S&P's expectations that SKG's financial
profile will improve to a level that is commensurate with the
'BB+' rating, given solid operating performance and management's
commitment to a 'BB+' rating. Fitch forecasts funds from
operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage to decline towards 3.1x in
2014 and 3.0x in 2015, from 3.3x at end-2013, assuming moderate
acquisitions and shareholder returns.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Increasing Revenues and Margins
Operating performance has improved in 2014, as buoyant European
markets offset negative currency movements in the Americas,
primarily the Venezuelan Bolivar. Revenues in Europe increased
3% yoy and recurring EBITDA grew 15% in the year to date (YTD)
ended 3Q14, while the Americas suffered a 15% decrease in
recurring EBITDA in the YTD3Q14 compared with the same period in
2013. Overall, Fitch expects low single-digit growth in turnover
in 2014, with EBITDA benefiting from the group's cost-cutting
program.
Stable Cash Flow
The group's positive free cash flow (FCF) generation through the
cycle is credit-supportive. Fitch forecasts continued positive
FCF, supported by the group's healthy current trading, recently
announced price increases in containerboard and its cost-cutting
program. This is despite exceptional restructuring costs and a
sizeable dividend. Fitch assumes that the group will not make
large acquisitions.
'BB+' Financial Profile
Fitch expects the group's financial profile to be commensurate
with a 'BB+' rating, with FFO adjusted gross leverage improving
to below 3.5x in 2015. This is predicated on Fitch's assumption
that selected acquisitions can be financed through internally
generated FCF. It also assumes that management will continue to
focus on deleveraging, albeit at a slower pace. Since 2010, the
group successfully reduced FFO adjusted gross leverage from 5.3x
to 3.7x currently.
Leading Positions
SKG's ratings are supported by its leading market positions in
corrugated containers and exposure to fairly stable packaging
markets; around 60% of its revenues are generated in fast moving
consumer goods. Its vertical integration into containerboard
provides some margin protection against raw material cost
inflation.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Future developments that could lead to positive rating actions
include:
-- Increased geographic and product diversification
-- FFO adjusted net leverage below 2.0x
-- FCF margin above 2.5% (2013: 2.7%)
Future developments that could lead to negative rating action
include:
-- Evidence of aggressive acquisitions or shareholder returns
-- FFO adjusted net leverage above 3.0x on a sustained basis
-- FCF margin below 1%
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Capital Structure Optimization
SKG is actively optimizing its capital structure, diversifying
its sources of funding, reducing interest and extending its debt
maturity profile. Over EUR3bn of debt has been refinanced
proactively over the past two years, resulting in a significant
reduction in the group's interest costs. Notably, the group
refinanced its EUR500m 7.75% senior notes due 2019 with a seven-
year bond at a rate of 3.25% in May 2014. The group's average
cost of funding decreased to 3.7% at end-3Q14 from 6.9% in June
2012.
Healthy Liquidity
Liquidity amounted to EUR1 billion at end-3Q14, comprising EUR555
million in unrestricted cash and EUR481 million in undrawn credit
facilities. This provides ample headroom to cover around EUR100m
in working capital swings during the year and EUR48 million in
short-term debt maturing over the next 12 months. Following the
refinancing transactions over the past two years, 90% of group
debt now matures in 2018 at the earliest, resulting in an average
debt maturity of more than five years.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
MANUTENCOOP FACILITY: Moody's Affirms B2 Corporate Family Rating
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Manutencoop Facility
Management S.p.A's B2 corporate family rating (CFR) and
probability of default rating (PDR) of B2-PD and the B2
instrument rating to the EUR425 million senior secured notes
issued by Manutencoop Facility Management S.p.A. At the same time
the outlook on the ratings has been changed to negative from
stable.
Ratings Rationale
"The change in outlook from stable to negative has been triggered
by Manutencoop's weak current trading in the nine months to
September 2014 as a result of severe and accelerating price and
margin pressure from competition, the reduction in the size of
its order book as a result of the general economic environment in
Italy with fewer commercial opportunities, the increased
management distraction caused by two separate investigations and
the decline in share of private sector contracts as a percentage
of total revenue", says Pieter Rommens, Moody's lead analyst for
Manutencoop.
In addition, Manutencoop's B2 CFR reflects the company's (1) sole
exposure to the Italian economy; (2) strong reliance on the
Italian public sector and Italian public authorities' payment
discipline; (3) high Moody's-adjusted leverage at around 5.5x for
the 12 months to September 2014, with limited deleveraging
prospects in the near term and (4) potential credit negative
effects from the two separate investigations into the Milan Expo
2015 and the Consip Scuole contracts.
The affirmed B2 CFR rating reflects the company's (1) leading
position in the fragmented Italian facilities management sector;
(2) relative size compared to other local players, manifesting
itself in a dense regional network and the benefits of economies
of scale; (3) sizeable order book with approximately 70% of
expected FY2015 revenues already contracted and none of the top
10 contracts up for renewal before 2016; (4) improved net working
operational capital position as a result of the Italian
government paying overdue receivables of EUR140 million in 2013
and 2014; (5) significant debt reduction through EUR88 million
repayment of bilateral and local debt facilities and factoring
lines during the first nine months of 2014 and a debt buy-back of
EUR25 million principal amount of the company's own notes on the
open market in October 2014 and (6) the company's solid cash
position of EUR85 million as of September 2014.
YTD September 2014 revenue of EUR740 million represents a decline
of 6.4% compared to the same period last year. The decline is to
a large extent the result of considerable downsizing of
Manutencoop's largest private sector client (Telecom Italia
S.p.A.) as of end of 2013, but further depressed by the weak
Italian economic environment with fewer commercial opportunities
on the market. In the first nine months of 2014, the company has
signed EUR245 million worth of contracts (with an average length
of 2.4 years), split between EUR72 million contract renewals and
EUR173 million new contracts. However, this compares to EUR517
million contract value signed the same period last year,
resulting in the decline in value of Manutencoop's order book to
EUR2.8 billion from EUR3.2 billion at the end of 2013. The
downsizing of the Telecom Italia contract and the relatively low
share of new private sector contracts won up until September 2014
(18% of total) results in a further decline in the overall share
of total revenue generated from private versus public sector
contracts to 32% from 36% in FY2013.
YTD September adjusted EBITDA of EUR76 million is down from EUR97
million the same period in 2013, representing a decline of 21.4%
and resulting in reported EBITDA margin decline to 10.3% from
12.2% last year. The reduction in margin is driven by the ongoing
downward pressure on prices from increased competition bidding
for fewer commercial opportunities. In addition, the margin shows
the effect of the fixed cost adjustments implemented since the
downsizing of the Telecom Italia contract and the considerable
start-up cost associated with the EUR116 million Consip Scuole
contract in the first quarter of 2014.
Manutencoop revenue is almost entirely generated in Italy and is
strongly exposed to the Italian public sector (more than 70% of
revenue generated YTD September 2014). In the near term, Moody's
expect further increases in unemployment in weaker euro area
countries, such as Italy, which will dampen consumer spending and
prolong the very low growth environment to 2016. Confronted with
an accelerating price pressure and fewer commercial
opportunities, the company has announced a cost restructuring
program with the goal to lower its fixed cost base by up to 20%
by 2016.
Despite the voluntary cancelation of the company's EUR30 million
RCF in July 2014, Moody's considers Manutencoop's liquidity as
adequate. The company's liquidity position is supported by a cash
balance of EUR85 million at the of September 2014 and the
continuing improvements in working capital following the further
EUR40 million repayment of trade receivables by the Italian
public administration during 2014, improving DSO to 197 days at
the end of September 2014 from 228 days at the same period last
year. Moody's expect Manutencoop's internally generated cash flow
to cover the company's ongoing basic cash needs, noting the
significant seasonality of the company's cash flows, with working
capital requirements generally peaking in the first and third
quarters.
In spite of the current weak trading, Moody's expects
Manutencoop's adjusted total debt leverage to decrease to around
5.4x at the of 2014, from 5.7x at the end of 2013 thanks to
repayment of EUR88 million bilateral facilities and factoring
lines during the first nine months of 2014 and the opportunistic
purchase of EUR25 million principal amount of the company's own
8.5% Senior Secured Notes due 2020 on the open market in October
2014. However, in light of the intensifying price pressure and
softening of Facility Management market and the lack of growth
expectations for the Italian market in the short-term, Moody's
consider the leverage as still high with limited deleveraging
prospects, whereas debt repayments during 2015 would be lower
than last year.
Rating Outlook
The negative outlook on the B2 CFR ratings reflects Moody's view
that Manutencoop's operating performance will remain under
pressure in the short-term, while the current investigations by
the Italian Competition Authorities may negatively impact the
company's reputation and ability to win contracts. However, this
is mitigated by Moody's expectation that Manutencoop will counter
the accelerating pressure on revenue and margin decline by
rolling out a cost reduction program from 2015, while defending
its clear leading position in the Italian market and generate
modest (albeit still positive) free cash flow.
What Could Change the Rating -- UP
Positive pressure on the ratings could materialize if Manutencoop
(1) maintains its current operating performance in relation to
EBITDA margins; (2) generates sustained positive free cash flow;
and (3) improves its leverage profile such that its Moody's-
adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio moves towards 5.0x.
What Could Change the Rating -- DOWN
Conversely, negative pressure could be exerted on the ratings if
Manutencoop's liquidity profile and credit metrics deteriorate as
a result of (1) its operational performance weakening or loss of
material contracts; (2) acquisitions; or (3) an aggressive change
in its financial policy. Quantitatively, Moody's would also
consider downgrading Manutencoop's ratings if its adjusted debt /
EBITDA fails to stay sustainably below 6x; or if the company
reports negative free cash flow on a sustained basis.
Furthermore, any negative consequences resulting from both the
Consip Scuole and the expo 2015 investigations ranging from
management distraction to reputation risk or even financial
damage would create negative pressure on the company's rating
position.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Business
& Consumer Service Industry Rating Methodology published in
October 2010. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default
for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada
and EMEA published in June 2009.
MILANI & FRAGOR: Court Sets Jan. 16 Hearing Set for Liquidator
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fresh Plaza reports that the Court of Verona has set the hearing
for the legal representative of Milani & Fragor Group SpA, which
closed in 2012, Santi Luciano, the commissioner and the
liquidator, for January 16, 2015 at 11:30 a.m.
The creditors of the company can also participate, Fresh Plaza
discloses. Milani & Fragor dealt with around 1,000 suppliers
from Italy and Spain, Fresh Plaza notes.
According to Fresh Plaza, creditors have until January 13, 2015
to submit their statements.
Milani & Fragor Group SpA is a Verona-based fruit and vegetable
company.
TELECOM ITALIA: S&P Revises Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB+' CCR
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it had revised its
outlook on Italy's incumbent telecommunications operator Telecom
Italia SpA to stable from negative and affirmed its 'BB+' long-
term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings.
At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'BB+' and 'B+' issue ratings
on Telecom Italia's debt instruments. The '3' and '6' recovery
ratings on these instruments remain unchanged.
The outlook revision reflects S&P's view in our base case that
Telecom Italia will maintain healthy liquidity and keep its
leverage in check, thanks to the company's still-positive
generation of discretionary cash flows, although leverage will
slightly increase in 2015, due to heavy spending on spectrum in
Brazil. In S&P's view, the company's cost measures and
efficiency savings will help mitigate the impact of falling
revenues and heavy investments in 4G/LTE and fiber. Moreover,
its EUR1.3 billion mandatory convertible bonds, which will
convert into equity in Nov. 2016, will have a beneficial impact.
S&P now ascribes full equity content to the bulk of the notes
(EUR1.15 billion, excluding the current make-whole amount), given
the bond's remaining maturity of less than two years and since
the company has obtained the required shareholder approval.
The ratings reflect S&P's assessment of the company's business
risk profile as "satisfactory" and financial risk profile as
"significant." S&P's view of Telecom Italia's business risk
balances its solid fixed-line and mobile positions, high EBITDA
margins in Italy, and the benefits of geographic diversity in the
attractive Brazilian market, against fierce mobile competition
and underpenetration of fixed-line broadband in Italy, ongoing
cannibalization issues between and within the fixed-line and
mobile segments, the challenging economic and regulatory
environments in Italy, and S&P's "fair" assessment of Telecom
Italia's management and governance.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that the annual decline in
domestic mobile revenues will sustainably soften in full year
2015 and Telecom Italia will maintain its current domestic EBITDA
margin through sufficient cost cutting, and that Telecom Italia's
network upgrades will yield competitive advantages and provide
monetization opportunities in 4G/LTE and very-high-bit-rate
digital subscriber line services. It also reflects S&P's
expectation of continuous absolute debt reduction through
positive discretionary cash flows, fully adjusted ratios of debt
to EBITDA at around 3.5x, funds from operations (FFO) to debt at
about 20%, and unaltered "strong" liquidity.
Renewed rating pressure could occur if the EBITDA drop fails to
soften and exceeds S&P's base-case forecast in 2015. This could
be triggered by any fresh mobile price war in Italy,
deteriorating trends in the fixed-line segment, or insufficient
cost cutting. In addition, rating pressure could stem from fully
adjusted ratios of debt to EBITDA approaching 3.7x and FFO to
debt dropping near 15%, or if positive discretionary cash flow
generation is jeopardized by overly aggressive investment and
dividend spend.
Rating upside seems remote at this stage, and could stem from
sustained stabilization of operating performance and debt
leverage dropping to below 3x.
===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================
EKIBASTUZ GRES-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' IDR; Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Kazakhstan-based electricity producer
Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP (Ekibastuz GRES-1) a Long-term foreign
currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BB+'. The Outlook is
Stable. Fitch has also assigned the proposed domestic senior
unsecured notes of up to KZT20bn a 'BB+(EXP)' expected rating.
The ratings reflect Ekibastuz GRES-1's strong financial profile
and market position, currently supportive regulatory regime and
access to cheap coal supplies. However, Ekibastuz GRES-1
requires significant capex and the planned investment program
will likely result in negative free cash flow (FCF) and funds
from operations (FFO) adjusted leverage levels increasing to
about 1.4x on average over 2014-2017 based on Fitch's
assumptions.
Ekibastuz GRES-1's ratings also benefit from a one-notch uplift
reflecting our assessment of its links with its 100%
shareholder - JSC Samruk-Energy (Samruk-Energy, BBB-/Stable),
which is in turn 100% state-owned via National Welfare Fund
Samruk-Kazyna JSC (Samruk-Kazyna, BBB+/Stable).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
One-Notch Uplift for Parental Support
Fitch considers the strategic, operational and to a lesser
extent, the legal ties between Ekibastuz GRES-1 and its
shareholder to be relatively strong and incorporates a one-notch
uplift for parental support into the company's 'BB+' rating.
While there are no guarantees between the company and its parent,
Fitch believes that the cross-default provisions in Samruk-
Energy's USD500 million Eurobonds could be triggered by a default
on Ekibastuz GRES-1's domestic bonds.
Strategic Importance
The strategic importance of Ekibastuz GRES-1 is underpinned by
its integral role in Samruk-Energy's target of becoming the
leading power generation company of Kazakhstan (BBB+/Stable).
Ekibastuz GRES-1 is also the most cash flow generative
(representing over 80% of 9M14 EBITDA) and the largest (about 60%
of electricity output) asset owned by Samruk-Energy, providing
the geographic exposure to northern Kazakhstan, near the border
with Russia (BBB/Negative), an important export market.
Favorable Tariffs At Present
Fitch notes that generation tariffs, which are set to cover fixed
and variable costs and cover majority of capex requirements, are
currently approved until end-2015. The post-2015 electricity
generation tariff regime is uncertain. Existing regulation
provides for implementation of a two-tier tariff regime from
2016, with the government setting cap tariffs for energy and
capacity component for a seven-year period with possible annual
revisions. Fuel and other cost inflation will continue to be
reflected in energy prices and the capacity component of the
tariff will provide for a return on investments. However, tariff
levels have not been set yet by the authorities. The electricity
capacity market should ensure economically sound returns on
investments and provide incentives for the construction of new
generation assets or expanding current capacity. The company
expects that the government will approve tariffs for 2016 and
beyond during 1H15.
Cheap Fuel Supports EBITDA
Kazakh coal prices are significantly below international market
rates, reflecting the low calorific content and high ash content
of coal used domestically as well as low transport costs. To
protect energy affordability, the coal price charged to utilities
is reflected in tariff caps for electricity. An unexpected and
significant increase in the price of coal above Fitch's current
inflationary estimates of 6%-8% annually would have a negative
impact on EBITDA if not reflected in electricity tariffs,
although we consider this unlikely.
Intensive Capex to Increase Leverage
Fitch expects Ekibastuz GRES-1 to continue generating healthy
cash flows from operations of around KZT43 billion on average
over 2014-2017. However, FCF is likely to remain negative at
around KZT27 billion on average during the same period due to
ambitious investment plans. The total capex plan amounts to
KZT248 billion over 2014-2017, and Fitch also assume dividend
payments of KZT8 billion annually. Fitch expects capex to be
partially debt funded, therefore we anticipate FFO gross adjusted
leverage to increase to about 1.4x on average over the same
period from 0.3x at end-2013. The company's investment program
is aimed at renewing and replacing its existing generation
assets. The company intends to increase its available capacity
by 1,000MW by 2017 to 4,000MW. It also expects to achieve an
increased load factor reliability and compliance with
environmental requirements.
Strong Financial Profile
Ekibastuz GRES-1's 'BB' standalone rating is underpinned by its
solid credit metrics. With an EBITDA margin of 65% on average
for 2010-2013, double digit coverage ratios and FFO gross
adjusted leverage below 1x in the same period. Despite some
deterioration of the company's financial profile over the next
three years due to the ambitious capex program, we expect it to
remain well positioned compared with its CIS and international
peers. Fitch acknowledges that Ekibastuz GRES-1's forecast
credit metrics are strong for its rating and we believe that it
offsets the risks inherent in the company's operating environment
and business profile, including tariff uncertainty after 2015.
The Largest Power Plant in Kazakhstan
Ekibastuz GRES-1 is one of the largest power plants in CIS and
the largest power plant in Kazakhstan, with 21% share of total
installed capacity and 15% in power supply in the country. The
coal-fired power plant with nominal installed capacity of 4,000MW
(8 units by 500MW each) is currently operating 3,000MW. However,
the company's single site operations are constraining its
business profile.
Imminent Refinancing Needs
Fitch views Ekibastuz GRES-1's liquidity as weak. All of the
company's debt at end-9M14 was short-term amounting to KZT23.4
billion against cash and cash equivalents of KZT6.8 billion as of
Nov. 27, 2014. A substantial part of outstanding debt is
represented by KZT10 billion 12% bonds maturing on Dec. 29, 2014,
with repayment according to the bond terms up to 30 days
thereafter.
Parent Support Expected
Ekibastuz GRES-1 anticipates refinancing the bond by a new bond
issue or a loan. Failing this, available liquidity may need to
be supplemented by unrestricted cash available at JSC Samruk-
Energy (KZT34.7 billion as of Nov. 27, 2014). The parent has
confirmed to Fitch its ability and willingness to provide its
liquidity to GRES-1 on a timely basis for the bond maturity. The
parent provided temporary working capital funding to the company
during 2014.
Ongoing Funding Needs
The expected negative FCF over 2014-2017 will represent a
continued external funding requirement. The company has unused
committed credit facilities of KZT2 billion from Sberbank
(BBB/Negative). Cash balances are mostly held in local currency
with domestic banks (91% as of 9M14) including Halyk Bank of
Kazakhstan (BB/Stable) and Kazkommertsbank (B/Stable).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating
action include:
-- Stronger legal links with the parent.
-- Long-term predictability of the regulatory framework and
stronger operating environment.
-- More diversified and efficient asset base.
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating
action include:
-- Weaker parent support, especially regarding short-term
liquidity provision and refinancing backstop.
-- A substantial increase in coal price without a full pass-
through to power price.
-- A weaker than expected financial performance and/or
financial guarantees for parent debt, leading to FFO gross
adjusted leverage persistently higher than 2x and FFO
interest coverage below 4x.
-- Committing to capex without sufficient available funding
and investment recovery certainty.
Full List of Rating Actions
Long-term foreign currency IDR assigned at 'BB+', Outlook Stable
Long-term local currency IDR assigned at 'BB+', Outlook Stable
National Long Term Rating assigned at 'AA-(kaz)', Outlook Stable
Expected local currency senior unsecured rating assigned to the
proposed KZT20bn notes at 'BB+(EXP)'
Expected National senior unsecured rating assigned to the
proposed KZT20bn notes at 'AA-(kaz)(EXP)'
KAZANORGSINTEZ: Fitch Revises Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B-' IDR
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised Tatarstan-based chemical producer OJSC
Kazanorgsintez's (KOS) Outlook to Positive from Stable and
affirmed its Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B-'.
The agency has simultaneously upgraded the senior unsecured
rating on the outstanding USD101 million loan participation notes
(eurobond) to 'CCC+'/'RR5' from 'CCC'/'RR6', and affirmed the
Short-term IDR at 'B'.
The Outlook revision reflects KOS's stabilized capital structure
and Fitch's expectations that KOS's liquidity profile will
improve over the next 12 to18 months. Fitch expects KOS to
continue generating strong positive free cash flow (FCF)
exceeding RUB4 billion in 2014 and RUB3 billion in 2015 on a
recovered polyethylene market, low capex and a 30% dividend pay-
out ratio. Coupled with a RUB1.1 billion cash buffer and RUB2.3
billion deposits accumulated at end-1H14, this would comfortably
cover RUB6 billion short-term debt falling due in 2H14 and 1H15,
including USD101 million eurobonds due in March 2015.
Fitch expects the company's funds from operations (FFO) adjusted
net leverage to reduce to 2.0x in 2014 and 2015, from 2.2x-2.4x
in 2012-2013, on absolute debt reduction and stronger FFO
generation.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Debt Repayment Hurdle in 1H15
As expected, debt reduction pace slowed in 1H14 as KOS
accumulated liquidity for debt maturity peak in 1H15, including
the USD101 million (RUB4 billion) eurobonds due in March 2015.
At end-1H14 KOS's one-year liquidity sources included a RUB3.4
billion liquidity buffer and over RUB4bn of positive FCF expected
by Fitch for 2H14-1H15. This implies an adequate liquidity
position to meet RUB6 billion short-term debt as of end-1H14. In
the absence of committed undrawn loans from banks, KOS may, in
case of need, have to refinance with Sberbank, KOS's largest
creditor, as it has successfully done in the past.
Rating Case Expectations
Fitch's rating case projects a peak of RUB50 billion revenue and
flattening RUB9 billion EBITDAR in 2014 on favorable polyethylene
pricing and record output volumes across the product portfolio.
Coupled with RUB1.2bn capex and a 30% dividend pay-out ratio,
this should result in positive FCF of over RUB4 billion.
Starting from 2015 Fitch expects polyethylene prices to moderate,
volumes to flatten and high single-digit input cost inflation to
result in moderate medium-term margin deterioration, albeit in
the upper teens. Strong FFO in 2014 and significant debt
repayment in 2015 are likely to result in FFO adjusted net
leverage around 2.0x in both 2014 and 2015.
Supply Contract Renewal in 2015
KOS's ethane supply contract with OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative)
expires in late 2015 and is subject to renewal. Should ethane
supply price deteriorate materially for KOS, this could
significantly erode the company's profitability and ability to
maintain operational cash flows at historical levels. Given the
lack of immediately available and sufficient ethane supply
alternatives, KOS may have to switch to ethylene sources, which
will nevertheless be detrimental to margins.
Capex Uncertainty after 2015
While KOS's investment strategy remains moderate and focused on
optimization initiatives, it may be revised by the start of the
next 2016-2020 investment phase period. While Fitch expects KOS
to retain moderate capex levels at below RUB1.5 billion until
2015, there is increased uncertainty over capex starting from
2016. However, this uncertainty does not create immediate rating
pressure as Fitch expects KOS's leverage and liquidity at end-
2015 to provide some headroom for additional capex.
Rating Constraints
The ratings are constrained by KOS's exposure to commodity
chemicals, its small size relative to the global diversified
chemical groups competing in its core polymer markets, single-
site operations and limited product and geographical
diversification. Finally, the ratings are discounted to reflect
higher-than-average legal, business and regulatory risks in
Russia (BBB/Negative/F3) and a lack of information on KOS's
ultimate beneficiaries.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating
actions include:
-- FFO adjusted net leverage sustained below 3.0x through the
cycle
-- FFO fixed charge coverage sustained above 5.0x (2013: 4.0x)
-- Further improvement of the liquidity profile resulting from
eurobonds repayment
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating
action include:
-- FFO adjusted net leverage sustained above 3.0x through the
cycle, which would lead to the Outlook being revised to
Stable
-- FFO fixed charge coverage below 5.0x, which would lead to
the Outlook being revised to Stable
-- Sharp and sustained liquidity shortfall resulting from a
deterioration in market conditions or from ethane supply
issues, which would lead to a downgrade
ZAMAN-BANK: S&P Affirms & Withdraws 'CCC+/C' Counterparty Ratings
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it had affirmed its
'CCC+/C' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings and
'kzB-' Kazakhstan national scale rating on Joint Stock Company
Zaman-Bank. S&P subsequently withdrew the ratings at the bank's
request.
At the time of the withdrawal, the outlook was stable.
The ratings on Zaman-Bank reflected the 'bb-' anchor that starts
S&P's rating analysis on financial institutions operating in
Kazakhstan. The ratings also reflected the bank's "weak"
business position, "very strong" capital and earnings, "weak"
risk position, "below average" funding, and "adequate" liquidity,
as S&P's criteria define these terms.
S&P's assessment of Zaman-Bank's business position as "weak"
reflected S&P's view of the bank's narrow regional franchise,
very small market share, limited customer base, and only basic
management and risk-control functions that would make it very
vulnerable in the event of business expansion. With total assets
of Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) 14.9 billion (about $82 million) as of
Sept. 1, 2014, Zaman-Bank ranks No. 36 among Kazakhstan's 38
banks, with a market share of 0.1% by assets.
The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector
(affiliated with The Islamic Development Bank Group) bought 5% of
Zaman-Bank in 2013, and plans to increase this stake to 35% after
the bank receives an Islamic Bank license. The bank is currently
awaiting approval of its application and intends to launch a new
Islamic banking strategy in 2015.
S&P's assessment of Zaman-Bank's capital and earnings as "very
strong" reflects the bank's low asset growth and conservative
capitalization policy compared with that of other small rated
Kazakh banks, and S&P's belief that the bank would maintain very
high capital ratios in the next two years. S&P forecasts that
its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio for Zaman-Bank would weaken
from 42% at year-end 2013, but stay above 30% in 2014-2015. The
bank's profitability is modest and volatile, in S&P's view. The
financial results for the first nine months of 2014 were boosted
by the reversal of provisions.
S&P's assessment of Zaman-Bank's risk position as "weak"
reflected very high individual, regional, and industry
concentration risk in the lending book. According to S&P's
estimates, the 20 largest loans accounted for about three-
quarters of the loan book as of Sept. 30, 2014. About two-thirds
of total loans were to small companies operating in the trade,
agriculture, and food industries in the Ekibastuz and Pavlodar
regions. Nonperforming loans (NPLs; more than 90 days overdue)
accounted for 4.5% of Zaman-Bank's total loans, as reported by
the regulator, as of Sept. 30, 2014, and are in line with those
of other small Kazakh banks. Loan loss reserves to customer
loans were adequate, in S&P's view, at 7% of total loans, and
fully covered NPLs as of Sept. 30, 2014.
S&P assessed Zaman-Bank's funding as "below average," reflecting
the very high reliance on shareholder deposits and equity as the
main funding sources. External deposit funding is low, given the
bank's limited franchise. In S&P's opinion, Zaman-Bank's
liquidity is "adequate," with liquid assets accounting for 23% of
total assets as of Sept. 30, 2014.
At the time of the withdrawal, the outlook was stable, reflecting
the balance between S&P's expectation that the bank will maintain
very strong capitalization and the bank's persistently vulnerable
risk profile, marginal competitive position, and concentrated
funding over the next 12 months.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
TAKKO FASHION: Moody's Lowers Corporate Family Rating to 'Caa1'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the Corporate Family
Rating (CFR) of Takko Fashion S.a.r.l., ("Takko" or "the
company") to Caa1 from B3 and its probability of default rating
(PDR) to B3-PD from B2-PD. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded
the rating of EUR525 million senior secured notes due 2019 issued
by Takko Luxembourg 2 S.C.A. to Caa1 from B3. The rating outlook
was revised to stable from negative.
Ratings Rationale
The downgrade of Takko's CFR to Caa1 reflects Moody's view that
the initiatives announced by the company in September 2014
following their strategic review carry execution risk, and will
take time to have a meaningful positive impact on financial
metrics. In the meantime, market conditions remain challenging
both in terms of consumer sentiment and economic conditions in
the German domestic market and in competitive dynamics across a
number of other countries in which they operate. As such, like-
for-like sales, margins and overall profitability remain under
pressure and accordingly, the company's free cash flow (FCF)
remains weak to negative. Leverage is currently significant at
over 8.0x on a Moody's adjusted basis and the rating agency sees
limited scope for deleveraging in the short to medium term.
Moody's will continue to carefully monitor Takko's liquidity
position, which although reduced as a result of the weak
operating underperformance, remains adequate as of the end of
July 2014, supported by EUR30 million cash and EUR62 million
availability under its revolving credit facility (RCF). Liquidity
could deteriorate in the event that management's strategic
initiatives are delayed or not as effective as anticipated. The
headroom under a single minimum EBITDA covenant in the RCF is
expected to be sufficient, in the absence of further marked
deterioration.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's view that LFL sales and
profit margins will remain under pressure, resulting in weak or
negative FCF and limited scope for deleveraging. However, it also
reflects Moody's view that there will not be significant
deterioration in underlying financial metrics in the short term
and that the initiatives being taken by management should begin
to have a positive impact in the medium term.
What Could Change the Rating Up/Down
Upward pressure on the rating is unlikely in the short term.
However, longer-term, upward pressure could be exerted on the
rating if Takko's credit metrics were to strengthen on a
sustainable basis, leading to adjusted Debt/EBITDA ratio below
7.0x , an EBITA/Interest ratio above 1.5x, and positive FCF.
The rating could come under negative pressure in the absence of
signs of operational improvement, such as gross margin recovery
and positive like-for-like sales growth. The rating may be
downgraded if FCF remains negative, or in the event of negative
pressure on liquidity or covenant headroom.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Retail
Industry published in June 2011. Other methodologies used include
Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies
in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009.
Founded in 1982, Takko is a German value fashion retailer
offering a range of apparel products and accessories for women,
men and children and primarily targeting young price-conscious
yet fashion-oriented families with over 1,900 stores across
Germany and other European countries. The company generated
approximately EUR1.1 billion in net revenue for twelve months
ended July 2014.
=================
M A C E D O N I A
=================
SKOPJE MUNICIPALITY: S&P Affirms 'BB-' ICR; Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BB-' issuer
credit rating on the Macedonian capital, the Municipality of
Skopje. The outlook is stable.
RATIONALE
The affirmation reflects S&P's view that Skopje's steady economic
development and tight control over operating spending will
support the city's budgetary performance. The ratings are
constrained, in S&P's view, by the volatile and unbalanced
institutional framework under which it operates, weak financial
management, a fragile economy, limited budgetary flexibility, and
high contingent liabilities.
S&P currently views the city's liquidity position as average.
The rating is supported by Skopje's average budgetary performance
with consistently sound operating balance. Its tax-supported
debt remains low, albeit gradually increasing.
S&P's assessment of the city's stand-alone credit profile is
'bb-', the same as the issuer credit rating.
S&P views Skopje's revenue and expenditure flexibility as
limited, due to the central government's control over
municipalities' finances within the context of the volatile and
unbalanced institutional framework under which Macedonian
municipalities operate. A high proportion of revenues still
depends on central government decisions, such as setting the base
or range for most local tax rates.
The volatility of the real estate market further constrains the
predictability of the municipality's budgetary performance.
About one-third of Skopje's revenues come both directly and
indirectly from real estate sales.
S&P views the city's financial management as weak. The
municipality lacks medium-term financial planning for the core
budget and its enterprises, while S&P regards its annual
budgeting as unrealistic. Nevertheless, the city government has
a tight grip on operating spending, and arranges funding from
multilateral financial institutions directly and via the state
treasury in advance.
Skopje's wealth levels are well below the international average.
S&P projects national GDP per capita to hover around a very low
$5,000 in 2013-2015. Nevertheless, S&P acknowledges the relative
strength of the city's economy, hosting large national and
international companies that have their headquarters in Skopje.
S&P also expects the local economy to gradually expand, achieving
annual GDP growth of about 3.4% over the next three years.
These steady economic developments will S&P thinks buoy the
city's budget performance. S&P projects the operating surplus to
stay around a high 19% of operating revenues in 2014-2016.
Nevertheless, the projected increase in maintenance costs will
likely lead to a modest reduction in the city's operating surplus
compared with 21.5% on average in 2011-2013.
S&P notes that Skopje has delayed the implementation of some
infrastructure projects. As a result, its debt has accumulated
more gradually than S&P previously expected. Nevertheless, in
S&P's base-case scenario it assumes that the city's investment in
transport infrastructure and real estate will cause its deficit
after capital accounts to plateau at about 4.0% of revenues in
2014-2016 compared with 6.9% in 2012-2013, leading to still-
steady debt growth.
The central government has only recently allowed Macedonian
municipalities to take on debt, and borrowing limits are
increasingly being relaxed. S&P forecasts that Skopje's tax-
supported debt will increase to a still-low 34% of consolidated
operating revenues by year-end 2016 in our base-case scenario.
This level of debt is additionally counterbalanced by the city's
high operating balance.
Skopje's municipal company sector constitutes a credit weakness,
in S&P's view. Several municipal companies have investment needs
and large payables, although these are set to decrease.
Additional contingent liabilities may come from the
municipality's plans to foster infrastructure development through
private-public partnerships.
Liquidity
S&P regards Skopje's liquidity as average. S&P bases its
assessment on the city's average coverage ratio, strong internal
cash-flow generating capability, and limited access to external
liquidity.
S&P expects the city's average cash holding, adjusted for the
deficit after capital accounts, to cover about 95% of debt
service falling due over the next 12 months. Skopje holds its
cash in an account at the state treasury.
Moreover, the city's internal cash flow generating capability
remains strong, with an operating balance that exceeds its annual
debt service by almost 5x.
These positive factors are mitigated by the city's access to
external liquidity, which S&P views as limited owing to the
relatively immature local banking system and capital markets for
municipal debt.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectations that the city will
retain control of operating expenditure and fund its investment
projects through borrowing. By doing so, it should preserve its
sound operating surplus and cash holding.
S&P could lower the rating on Skopje if its liquidity position
becomes structurally weaker within the next 12 months. As S&P's
downside scenario indicates, relaxed control of operating
spending and increased investments would weaken the city's
budgetary performance and cause the deficit after capital
accounts to exceed 10% of revenues.
If S&P was to raise the rating on the Republic of Macedonia, it
could raise the rating on Skopje if it met the assumptions
embedded in S&P's upside scenario within the next 12 months.
These include higher revenues from property taxes and fees for
construction land, paving the way for stronger budgetary
performance, deficits below 5% of revenues, and a build-up of
cash reserves that exceeded annual debt service.
In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the
methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair
confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee
by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner
and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed
decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Ratings Score Snapshot above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity
to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed
the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee
decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are
summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of
all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this
rating action.
RATINGS LIST
Ratings Affirmed
Skopje (Municipality of)
Issuer Credit Rating BB-/Stable/--
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
CAIRN CLO IV: Moody's Assigns '(P)B2' Rating to Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service announced that it has assigned the
following provisional ratings to notes to be issued by Cairn CLO
IV B.V. (the "Issuer" or "Cairn IV CLO"):
EUR175,000,000 Class A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2028, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
EUR5,000,000 Class A-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2028, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
EUR20,250,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2028, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
EUR15,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2028, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
EUR16,750,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2028, Assigned (P)A2 (sf)
EUR15,750,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2028, Assigned (P)Baa2 (sf)
EUR21,000,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2028, Assigned (P)Ba2 (sf)
EUR8,000,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2028, Assigned (P)B2 (sf)
Moody's issues provisional ratings in advance of the final sale
of financial instruments, but these ratings only represent
Moody's preliminary credit opinions. Upon a conclusive review of
a transaction and associated documentation, Moody's will endeavor
to assign definitive ratings. A definitive rating (if any) may
differ from a provisional rating.
Ratings Rationale
Moody's provisional rating of the rated notes addresses the
expected loss posed to noteholders by the legal final maturity of
the notes in 2028. The provisional ratings reflect the risks due
to defaults on the underlying portfolio of loans given the
characteristics and eligibility criteria of the constituent
assets, the relevant portfolio tests and covenants as well as the
transaction's capital and legal structure. Furthermore, Moody's
is of the opinion that the collateral manager, Cairn Loan
Investments LLP ("CLI"), has sufficient experience and
operational capacity and is capable of managing this CLO.
Cairn IV CLO is a managed cash flow CLO. At least 90% of the
portfolio must consist of senior secured loans and senior secured
bonds and up to 10% of the portfolio may consist of unsecured
senior loans, second-lien loans, mezzanine obligations and high
yield bonds. The portfolio is expected to be at least 60% ramped
up as of the closing date and to be comprised predominantly of
corporate loans to obligors domiciled in Western Europe.
CLI will manage the CLO. It will direct the selection,
acquisition and disposition of collateral on behalf of the Issuer
and may engage in trading activity, including discretionary
trading, during the transaction's four-year reinvestment period.
Thereafter, purchases are permitted using principal proceeds from
unscheduled principal payments and proceeds from sales of credit
risk and credit improved obligations, and are subject to certain
restrictions.
In addition to the eight classes of notes rated by Moody's, the
Issuer will issue EUR32.600 million of subordinated notes which
will not be rated.
The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests
which, if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to
pay down the notes in order of seniority.
Loss and Cash Flow Analysis:
Moody's modelled the transaction using CDOEdge, a cash flow model
based on the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in
Section 2.3 of the "Moody's Global Approach to Rating
Collateralized Loan Obligations" rating methodology published in
February 2014. The cash flow model evaluates all default
scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of
the binomial distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate.
In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class
of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the
assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and
noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche
is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each
default scenario and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow
model in each default scenario for each tranche. As such, Moody's
encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.
Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:
Par amount: EUR 300,000,000
Diversity Score: 36
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2800
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 4.00%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.50%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.50%
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 8 years.
As part of the base case, Moody's has addressed the potential
exposure to obligors domiciled in countries with foreign currency
government bond rating of A3 or below. Following the effective
date, and given the portfolio constraints and the current
sovereign ratings in Europe, such exposure may not exceed 10% of
the total portfolio, where exposures to countries rated below
Baa3 cannot exceed 5%. As a result and in conjunction with the
current foreign government bond ratings of the eligible
countries, as a worst case scenario, a maximum 5% of the pool
would be domiciled in countries with single A local currency
country ceiling and 5% in Baa2 local currency country ceiling.
The remainder of the pool will be domiciled in countries which
currently have a local currency country ceiling of Aaa. Given
this portfolio composition, the model was run with different
target par amounts depending on the target rating of each class
of notes as further described in the rating methodology. The
portfolio haircuts are a function of the exposure size to
peripheral countries and the target ratings of the rated notes
and amount to 0.75% for the class A notes, 0.50% for the Class B
notes, 0.375% for the Class C notes and 0% for Classes D, E and
F.
Stress Scenarios:
Together with the set of modelling assumptions above, Moody's
conducted additional sensitivity analysis, which was an important
component in determining the provisional rating assigned to the
rated notes. This sensitivity analysis includes increased default
probability relative to the base case. Below is a summary of the
impact of an increase in default probability (expressed in terms
of WARF level) on each of the rated notes (shown in terms of the
number of notch difference versus the current model output,
whereby a negative difference corresponds to higher expected
losses), holding all other factors equal:
Percentage Change in WARF: WARF + 15% (to 3220 from 2800)
Ratings Impact in Rating Notches:
Class A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes: 0
Class A-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes: 0
Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes: -1
Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes: -1
Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -2
Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -1
Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -1
Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: 0
Percentage Change in WARF: WARF +30% (to 3640 from 2800)
Class A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes: -1
Class A-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes: -1
Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes: -3
Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes: -3
Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -4
Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -2
Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -2
Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes: -2
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
February 2014.
Factors that Would Lead to an Upgrade or Downgrade of the Rating:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The
notes' performance is sensitive to the performance of the
underlying portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and
credit conditions that may change. CLI 's investment decisions
and management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
CAIRN CLO IV: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating to Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Cairn CLO IV B.V.'s notes expected
ratings as:
Class A-1: 'AAA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class A-2: 'AAA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B-1: 'AA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B-2: 'AA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class C: 'A(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class D: 'BBB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class E: 'BB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Class F: 'B-(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Subordinated notes: not rated
The assignment of the final ratings is contingent on the receipt
of final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Cairn CLO IV B.V. is an arbitrage cash flow collateralized loan
obligation (CLO).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Portfolio Credit Quality
Fitch expects the average credit quality of obligors to be in the
'B'/'B-' range. The agency has credit opinions on 100% of the
identified portfolio. The weighted average rating factor (WARF)
of the initial portfolio, which represents 83.9% of the target
par balance, is 33.1.
High Recovery Expectations
At least 90% of the portfolio will comprise senior secured
obligations. Fitch views the recovery prospects for these assets
as more favorable than for second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine
assets. Fitch has assigned Recovery Ratings (RR) to all assets
in the indicative portfolio. The weighted average recovery
rating (WARR) of the indicative portfolio is 71.1%.
Payment Frequency Switch
The notes pay quarterly, while the portfolio assets can reset to
semi-annual. The transaction has an interest-smoothing account,
but no liquidity facility. A liquidity stress for the non-
deferrable classes A and B, stemming from a large proportion of
assets resetting to semi-annual in any one quarter, is addressed
by switching the payment frequency on the notes to semi-annual,
subject to certain conditions.
Limited Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is naturally hedged for most of the portfolio,
as 93.5% of the notes are floating-rate and a maximum of 7.5% of
assets can be fixed-rate. Fitch modeled both 7.5% and 0% of
fixed-rate assets in its analysis, and found that the rated notes
can withstand the interest rate mismatch associated with both
scenarios.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
Net proceeds from the notes will be used to purchase a EUR300m
portfolio of mostly euro denominated leveraged loans and bonds.
The transaction features a four-year reinvestment period and the
portfolio of assets will be managed by Cairn Loan Investments
LLP.
The transaction documents may be amended subject to rating agency
confirmation or note-holder approval. Where rating agency
confirmation relates to risk factors, Fitch will analyze the
proposed change and may provide a rating action commentary if the
change has a negative impact on the then current ratings. Such
amendments may delay the repayment of the notes as long as
Fitch's analysis confirms the expected repayment of principal at
the legal final maturity.
If in the agency's opinion the amendment is risk-neutral from a
rating perspective, Fitch may decline to comment. Noteholders
should be aware that the structure considers the confirmation to
be given if Fitch declines to comment.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
A 25% increase in the expected obligor default probability would
lead to a downgrade of up to three notches for the rated notes.
A 25% reduction in expected recovery rates would lead to a
downgrade of up to four notches for the rated notes.
DE SIONSBERG: Faces Closure; Owes EUR40 Million
-----------------------------------------------
According to DutchNews.nl, local broadcaster Omrop Fryslan said
on Nov. 26 the De Sionsberg hospital in Dokkum, Friesland, was
expected to close down last week because its parent company has
gone bankrupt.
The broadcaster, as cited by DutchNews.nl, said patients are
being moved to other hospitals and 260 workers will lose their
jobs.
The hospital, run by the Zorggroep Pasana foundation, has been in
financial trouble for several years and has built up debts of
EUR40 million, DutchNews.nl discloses. The hospital says its
problems are due to a shortage of patients, DutchNews.nl relays.
Last year, one-third of the workforce lost their jobs,
DutchNews.nl recounts.
In the meantime, a third party has come forward to buy the
group's care of the elderly services, DutchNews.nl states. More
details of that potential deal have not been made public,
DutchNews.nl notes.
HARBOURMASTER PRO-RATA 2: Fitch Affirms B Rating on Cl. B2 Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Harbourmaster Pro-Rata 2 B.V.'s notes,
as:
Class A1VF: affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A1T (XS0262176364): affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2 (XS0262176794): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook revised to
Negative from Stable
Class A3 (XS0262176877): affirmed at 'A-sf'; Outlook Negative
Class A4E (XS0262177172): affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Negative
Class A4F (XS0262177255): affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Negative
Class B1E (XS0262177339): affirmed at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Negative
Class B1F (XS0262640575): affirmed at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Negative
Class B2 (XS0262177412): affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Negative
Class S1 (XS0262178907): affirmed at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Negative
Class S4 (XS0262179467): affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Negative
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation reflects the transaction's stable performance
over the past year. The Outlook on the Class A2 note has been
revised to Negative from Stable as a result of some negative
migration in credit quality. The weighted average rating
increased to 29.6 from 28.2.
The transaction's reinvestment period ended in October 2013 but
the collateral manager is able to reinvest unscheduled proceeds
until Oct. 2015. The deal has a cash balance of EUR75.6m which
it could potentially use to reinvest in additional assets. The
collateral manager can hold unscheduled principal proceeds for
three payments dates before paying down the notes.
The A1VF note has reduced its commitment amount to EUR120 million
from EUR146 million. EUR1.3 million remains undrawn. The A1T
note has paid down to 82.1% of its original outstanding balance.
This has marginally improved credit enhancement across all notes.
The class A1 notes' credit enhancement has increased to 45.8%
from 41% and the class C notes have increased to 4.7% from 4.4%.
Despite this improvement, the notes' credit enhancement remains
lower than similarly rated tranches in the Harbourmaster program.
The maturity profile of the transaction has altered compared with
last year. Assets maturing in 2021 have increased to 9.8% from
0.5% and the transaction also contains one long dated asset
accounting for 0.8% of the portfolio. The transaction is
scheduled to mature in Oct. 2022. The weighted average life of
the portfolio decreased marginally to 4.11 years from 4.38 years,
as a result of the maturity extensions for some of the loans.
Currently there are no revolving or delayed drawdown notes in the
portfolio. Of the portfolio, 15.9% is non-euro-denominated.
However, only 1.8% is hedged by the variable funding note and the
remainder is hedged by currency swaps which meet Fitch's
counterparty criteria. The transaction documents allowed for up
to EUR88 million of the portfolio notional to be invested in non-
euro-denominated revolving assets, or delayed drawdown notes.
Any investment or drawings would be matched by a corresponding
drawing on the multi-currency variable funding A1VF note.
The portfolio has one remaining defaulted asset down from three
at last review. This asset accounts of 0.8% of the portfolio
(2.3% at last review). Assets rated 'CCC' and below make up 3.7%
of the portfolio an increase from 2.35% at the last review.
All interest coverage and par coverage tests for the transaction
are currently passing. The class B2 OC test briefly failed in
January 2014 by 1bps. As a result EUR1,697.50 of principal was
paid to the class B2 notes.
All portfolio profile tests reported in the October investor
report are passing. The Fitch weighted average recovery rate is
71.8% above its trigger level of 67.5%. The weighted average
spread test is passing its trigger level of 2.94% comfortably
with a value of 3.85% (down from 4.1% last year).
Harbourmaster Pro-Rata CLO 2 B.V. is a securitization of mainly
European senior secured loans with the total EUR602 million note
issuance invested in a target portfolio of EUR587.5 million. The
portfolio is actively managed by Blackstone/GSO Debt Funds Europe
Limited.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
In its rating sensitivity analysis, Fitch found that a 25%
increase of the default probability would result in downgrade of
between one and three notches across all notes barring the class
A1 notes which would be unaffected.
A 25% reduction of the recovery rate would result in a downgrade
of between one and three notches across all notes barring the
class A1 notes which would be unaffected.
SILVER BIRCH I: Moody's Raises Rating on Class E Notes to 'Ba2'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has announced that it has taken the
following rating actions on the following classes of notes issued
by Silver Birch CLO I B.V.:
EUR21 million (current outstanding balance of EUR13.2M) Class C
Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes due 2020, Affirmed
Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 31, 2014 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
EUR18 million Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2020, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Mar 31, 2014
Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)
EUR7.5 million Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2020, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 31, 2014
Upgraded to B2 (sf)
Silver Birch CLO I B.V. issued in August 2005, is a
Collateralised Loan Obligation ("CLO") backed by a portfolio of
mostly high yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by Alcentra Limited. This transaction exited its
reinvestment period in August 2010.
Ratings Rationale
The actions on Classes D and E notes are primarily a result of
deleveraging of the senior notes and subsequent improvement of
over-collateralization ratios since the rating action in March
2014. Moody's notes that the outstanding of EUR9 million of the
Class B note have paid down completely and the Class C note have
paid down by EUR7.8 million (37%) at the last payment date in
July 2014.
As a result of the deleveraging, over-collateralization has
increased. As per the latest trustee report dated October 2014,
Class C overcollateralization ratio is reported at 306.11%,
compared to 145.30% in the January 2014 report that was used for
the March rating action.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in its analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on its published methodology and
could differ from the trustee's reported numbers. In its base
case, Moody's analyzed the underlying collateral pool as having a
performing par and principal proceeds balance of EUR54.6 million,
defaulted par of EUR8.6 million, a weighted average default
probability of 29.94% (consistent with a WARF of 4744), a
weighted average recovery rate upon default of 52.12% for a Aaa
liability target rating, a diversity score of 7 and a weighted
average spread of 3.19%.
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectation of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on
future defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets
in the collateral pool. For a Aaa liability target rating,
Moody's assumed a recovery of 50% of the 89.46% of the portfolio
exposed to first-lien senior secured corporate assets upon
default and of 15% of the remaining non-first-lien loan corporate
assets upon default. In each case, historical and market
performance and a collateral manager's latitude to trade
collateral are also relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these
default and recovery characteristics of the collateral pool into
its cash flow model analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a
function of the target rating of each CLO liability it is
analyzing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
February 2014.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
In addition to the base-case analysis, Moody's conducted
sensitivity analyses on the key parameters for the rated notes,
for which it assumed a lower weighted average spread in the
portfolio. Moody's ran a model in which it lowered the weighted
average spread by 30bp; the model generated outputs that were in
line with base-case results.
This transaction is subject to a high level of macroeconomic
uncertainty, which could negatively affect the ratings on the
note, in light of 1) uncertainty about credit conditions in the
general economy. CLO notes' performance may also be impacted
either positively or negatively by 1) the manager's investment
strategy and behavior and 2) divergence in the legal
interpretation of CDO documentation by different transactional
parties because of embedded ambiguities.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
* Portfolio amortization: The main source of uncertainty in
this transaction is the pace of amortization of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortization could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the liquidation
agent/the collateral manager or be delayed by an increase in loan
amend-and-extend restructurings. Fast amortization would usually
benefit the ratings of the notes beginning with the notes having
the highest prepayment priority.
* Around 66% of the collateral pool consists of debt
obligations whose credit quality Moody's has assessed by using
credit estimates.
* Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's over-
collateralization levels. Further, the timing of recoveries and
the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's
analyzed defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market
price or the recovery rate to account for potential volatility in
market prices. Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would
have a positive impact on the notes' ratings.
* Long-dated assets: The presence of assets that mature beyond
the CLO's legal maturity date exposes the deal to liquidation
risk on those assets. Moody's assumes that, at transaction
maturity, the liquidation value of such an asset will depend on
the nature of the asset as well as the extent to which the
asset's maturity lags that of the liabilities. Liquidation values
higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive impact on
the notes' ratings.
* Lack of portfolio granularity: The performance of the
portfolio depends to a large extent on the credit conditions of a
few large obligors with Caa1 or lower/non-investment-grade
ratings, especially when they default. Because of the deal's low
diversity score and lack of granularity, Moody's supplemented its
typical Binomial Expansion Technique analysis with a simulated
default distribution using Moody's CDOROMTM software and an
individual scenario analysis.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
other Moody's analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
TELEFONICA EUROPE: Moody's Rates EUR850MM Hybrid Securities 'Ba1'
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Ba1 long-term rating to
Telefonica Europe B.V.'s proposed issuance of "Undated 5 Year
Non-Call, Deeply Subordinated, Guaranteed Fixed Rate Reset
Securities " (the "hybrid debt"), which are fully and
unconditionally guaranteed by Telefonica S.A. (Telefonica) on a
subordinated basis. The outlook on the ratings is negative. The
size of the hybrid securities is EUR850 million. All other
ratings of Telefonica and its guaranteed subsidiaries, as well as
the negative outlook on those ratings, remain unchanged.
"The Ba1 rating Moody's have assigned to the hybrid debt is two
notches below Telefonica's senior unsecured rating of Baa2,
primarily because the instrument is deeply subordinated to other
debt in the company's capital structure," says Carlos Winzer, a
Moody's Senior Vice President and lead analyst for Telefonica.
Ratings Rationale
The Ba1 rating assigned to the hybrid debt is two notches below
the group's senior unsecured rating of Baa2. The two-notch rating
differential reflects the deeply subordinated nature of the
hybrid debt. The instrument (1) is a perpetual instrument; (2) is
senior only to common equity; (3) provides Telefonica with the
option to defer coupons on a cumulative basis; and (4) steps up
the coupon by 25bp in 2024 and additional 75bp in 2039. The
Issuer does not have any Preferred Shares outstanding that would
rank junior to the Hybrid debt, and the Issuer's Articles of
Association do not provide for the issuance of such shares by the
Issuer.
In Moody's view, the notes have equity-like features that allow
them to receive basket "C" treatment, i.e., 50% equity and 50%
debt for financial leverage purposes (please refer to Moody's
Rating Implementation Guidance "Revisions to Moody's Hybrid Tool
Kit" of July 2010).
Moody's notes that Telefonica plans to use the hybrid debt for
general corporate purposes, to support Telefonica's strategy, to
diversify and strengthen its capital structure and to substitute
senior unsecured debt with instruments that carry partly equity
characteristics.
Telefonica's Baa2 rating primarily reflects (1) the group's large
size and scale; (2) the diversification benefits associated with
its strong positions in many different markets; (3) the enhanced
technology, exclusive TV-content and bundled offers that improves
its market positioning; (4) management's track record and ability
in terms of executing a well-defined and concise business
strategy; and (5) its operating cash flow generation and
management's commitment to maintaining its reported net
debt/EBITDA ratio below 2.35x in the medium term.
Telefonica's Baa2 rating also continues to reflect the following
assumptions: (1) management's ability to continue to execute a
strategy that offsets Spain's challenging macroeconomic
environment and contraction in consumer spending, which will
continue to affect Telefonica's domestic revenues; (2) the group
will deliver the financial policy (including cash preservation
measures and a non-core assets disposal program) that management
has publicly committed to, which supports its deleveraging and
strategy to strengthen its finances; and (3) that Telefonica will
maintain its access to the debt capital markets and as such,
retain adequate liquidity, supported by recent bond issuances and
asset sales.
Rationale for Negative Outlook
The negative outlook on the ratings reflects Moody's expectation
that Telefonica will continue to operate in a challenging
domestic market (Spain). Despite the fact that Telefonica's
international diversification enhances its credit profile, the
group's exposure to the domestic market puts it at risk given
Spain's macroeconomic pressure, which is exacerbated by the
contraction in consumer spending resulting from austerity
measures.
What Could Change the Rating Up/Down
As the hybrid debt rating is positioned relative to another
rating of Telefonica, either (1) a change in Telefonica's senior
unsecured rating or (2) a re-evaluation of its relative notching
could affect the hybrid debt rating.
Although not currently expected in light of the negative outlook,
the weak macroeconomic conditions in Spain and the constraints
related to the sovereign rating, Moody's would consider an
upgrade of Telefonica's rating to Baa1 if the company's credit
metrics were to strengthen significantly as a result of
improvements in its operational cash flows and a further
reduction in debt. If sovereign-related concerns were to abate,
the rating could benefit from positive pressure if it became
clear that the group could achieve sustainable improvements in
its debt ratios, such as an adjusted RCF/net debt ratio above the
mid-twenties in percentage terms and an adjusted net debt/EBITDA
ratio comfortably below 2.5x.
Conversely, a rating downgrade could result if (1) Telefonica
deviates from its financial-strengthening plan, as a result of
weaker cash flow generation or the incurrence or assumption of
further substantial debt in conjunction with the pursuit of
acquisitions or more aggressive shareholder distribution
policies; and/or (2) the group's operating performance in Spain
and other key markets continues to deteriorate and there is no
likelihood of any short-term improvement in underlying trends.
Resulting metrics would include an RCF/net adjusted debt ratio of
less than 18% or a net adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio trending
towards 3.0x. In addition, a rating downgrade could result if
Moody's were to downgrade the sovereign rating.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in this rating was Global
Telecommunications Industry published in December 2010.
Telefonica S.A. is the leading integrated telecommunications
provider in Spain, delivering a full range of services and
products including telephony, data exchange, interactive content
and information and communications technology solutions.
Telefonica is also one of the world's leading telecommunications
carriers, with some 316 million customers worldwide. Total
reported group revenues and EBITDA amounted to EUR52.4 billion
and EUR17.3 billion respectively for the twelve-month period to
September 2014.
UCL RAIL: Moody's Withdraws 'Ba2' Corporate Family Rating
---------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn UCL Rail B.V.'s corporate
family rating (CFR) of Ba2 and probability of default rating
(PDR) of Ba2-PD. At the time of withdrawal, all the
aforementioned ratings carried a negative outlook.
Ratings Rationale
Moody's has withdrawn the ratings for its own business reasons.
===========
P O L A N D
===========
CIECH SA: Moody's Raises Corporate Family Rating to 'B1'
--------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service, has upgraded the corporate family
rating (CFR) of Ciech SA (Ciech, or the company) to B1 from B2,
the probability of default rating to B1-PD from B2-PD and the
instrument rating on the EUR245 million of senior secured notes
issued by Ciech Group Financing AB due in 2019 to B1 from B2. The
outlook remains stable.
Ratings Rationale
The upgrade follows the company's good performance in 2013 and so
far in 2014 -- with improvements in EBITDA margins and cash flow
generation. The favorable results were driven by the increased
volumes and price of soda ash and sales of plant protection
chemicals as well as the disposal of lower margin businesses.
Consequently, for FY2013, Moody's adjusted EBITDA margin improved
to 11.7% and for the last-twelve-months (LTM) ended September
2014 was 14.7%. Additionally, debt/EBITDA declined to 3.3x in
FY2013 and was 2.6x for the LTM ended September 2014 with free
cash flow/debt between 7-9% (ratios adjusted with Moody's
standard adjustments). These credit metrics met Moody's upgrade
triggers and now solidly position the company in the B1 rating
category.
The rating action also incorporates Moody's view that current
profitability levels will be at least maintained throughout 2015,
supported by trends in the soda ash market, including Ciech's own
capacity expansion and growth in its plant protection chemicals
business. However, the company has a large capital expenditure
program in 2015 and 2016 of approximately PLN900 million that
Moody's expects will result in negative free cash flow and
debt/EBITDA rising to approximately 3.5x.
The B1 CFR reflects (i) the company's significant exposure to
cyclical end markets such as construction and automotive
industries; (ii) volatility in energy prices and growing cost
emissions rights; (iii) expected high capex expenditures in 2015
and 2016 which could pressure liquidity; (iv) weak performance in
the non-core organic segment (particularly the epoxy resins); (v)
competition within the soda ash market, particularly for its
Romanian plant and (vi) exposure to FX fluctuation: depreciation
of EUR against PLN would hinder the group's exports.
The rating also factors in (i) Ciech's solid position as the
largest regional producer of soda ash in Central Europe with
production facilities in Poland, Germany and Romania; (ii)
Ciech's low-cost production capabilities, as well as the improved
energy efficiency at the company's Polish facilities. This is
particularly important given the coal-based production at the
company's largest site; (iii) Ciech's competitive position is
also supported by established supply relationships with leading
glass producers in the region and high transportation costs,
relative to the cost of production, which mitigate competitive
pressures from foreign suppliers and support solid operating
margins; (iv) Improving soda ash market and delays in Turkish
trona capacities launch until 2017/2018; and (v) a new
Supervisory Board that has agreed a five-year plan targeting a
reported leverage of below 1.0x by 2019, subject to the capital
expenditure plan assumed by the strategy.
The company has made further progress in the restructuring and
divestment of its non-core businesses throughout 2013 and 2014.
However, it still has a number of assets that could potentially
be divested.
Moody's views Ciech's liquidity as currently sufficient to cover
all needs over the next 12-18 months but the company will have to
effectively manage the funding of its large capital expenditure
and the refinancing of the secured notes due 2019 as planned
toward the end of 2015. As of 30 September, it had PLN63 million
cash on the balance sheet and full availability under a PLN100
million revolving credit facility that expires in September 2016
as well as PLN180 million availability under a PLN240 million
factoring facility. Moody's expects negative free cash flow in
2015 due to the large capital expenditure as well as the payment
of approximately PLN60 million in dividends. Covenant headroom is
expected to be adequate, although tightens during the course of
2015.
Rating Outlook
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Ciech's
operating performance will continue to improve driven by a
supportive soda ash market and growth in its plant protection
chemicals business. It also reflects the current degree of
financial flexibility to successfully execute its large capex
program while maintaining adequate liquidity.
What Could Change the Rating Up/Down
Positive rating pressure is unlikely whilst Ciech executes its
capex program but could develop if Ciech deleverages further, so
that adjusted Debt/EBITDA decreases below 2.5x and FCF/Debt
increases above 8%. Conversely, negative rating pressure could
develop if any deviations from Moody's outlined expectations
occur, with weaker operating performance leading to adjusted
Debt/EBITDA above 4.0x or the conditions for a stable outlook not
being met.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global
Chemical Industry Rating Methodology published in December 2013.
Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for
Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and
EMEA published in June 2009.
Ciech SA, headquartered in Poland, is Europe's second-largest
soda ash producer, with a focus on Poland, Germany and Central
Europe. It also operates a number of other businesses producing
plant protection chemicals, resins, polyurethane foams, silicates
and glass that represent 21% of group EBITDA for the nine months
to September 2014. For the LTM ended September 2014, the company
reported revenue and normalized EBITDA of PLN3.3 billion and
PLN489 million, respectively. Ciech has been listed on the Warsaw
Stock Exchange since 2005 and its largest shareholder is KI
Chemistry, which now owns a 51% stake after buying the Polish
State Treasury's 38% stake on June 9, 2014.
===========
R U S S I A
===========
BPS-SBERBANK: Fitch Affirms 'B-' IDR; Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-term Issuer Default Ratings
(IDRs) of BPS-Sberbank (BPS), Bank BelVEB and Belgazprombank
(BGPB) at 'B-' with Stable Outlooks.
KEY RATING DRIVERS - IDRS, SUPPORT RATINGS
The affirmation of Long-term IDRs of BPS, BelVEB, and BGPB with
Stable Outlooks reflect Fitch's expectation of the high
propensity of their Russian owners to provide support, in case of
need. BPS is 98.4%-owned by Sberbank of Russia (BBB/Negative),
BelVEB 97.5%-owned by Vnesheconombank, (VEB; BBB/Negative), and
BGPB is jointly owned by OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) and
Gazprombank; (BBB-/Negative).
Fitch's view is driven by the majority ownership, common branding
(implying high reputational risks), parent-subsidiary integration
links (including board representation and operational controls),
continued strong commitment of the Russian shareholders to the
Belarus market, low cost of any support required (each of these
subsidiaries accounts for less than 2% of their respective parent
banks' consolidated assets) and the track record of support to
date.
However, the ratings are constrained at 'B-' by the rather high
risk of transfer and convertibility restrictions being imposed in
case of sovereign stress, which could limit the banks' ability to
utilize support from their shareholders to service their
obligations. The Belarusian subsidiaries are not affected by the
Negative Outlooks on their parents, which mirror that on the
Russian sovereign - due to significant rating difference.
The operating environment in Belarus remains difficult and the
country's external position is a weakness in view of moderate FX
reserves (USD6 billion as of Nov. 1, 2014), a persistent current
account deficit (USD2.6 billion in 1H14) and material upcoming
debt repayments (around USD3 billion in 2015). The pressure on
the country's external finances has so far been alleviated by
continued access to foreign funding/preferential trade terms with
Russia and we expect this to remain available.
Support from the Russian parents has been forthcoming so far and
Fitch believes it will be made available in the future, in case
of need. However, new sizeable equity injections are not
expected, as growth targets for these subsidiaries have been
revised down to match, in general, the pace of inflation in 2015.
Funding support, mostly in foreign currencies, remains
considerable with parent loans being in the range of 22%-37% of
these subsidiaries' liabilities. This is likely to increase
further, because foreign funding (BPS: 10% of liabilities,
BelVEB: 16%, BGPB: 17%) may need to be repaid at maturity due to
sanctions (BPS, BelVEB are directly affected, while BGPB,
although not sanctioned, may be subject to negative investor
sentiment).
KEY RATING DRIVERS -- Viability Ratings (VRs)
These banks' VRs to a large extent remain closely correlated to
the sovereign credit profile given (i) the likelihood that any
further deterioration of the sovereign's financial position would
hurt the broader economy; (ii) the high degree of state ownership
across the country and the dependence of many borrowers on
government support; and (iii) the banks' high direct exposure to
the sovereign through government bonds and FX swaps with the
National Bank (BPS 159% of Fitch Core Capital (FCC); BelVEB: 60%;
BGPB: 82%).
Non-performing loans (overdue by more than 90 days) were at end-
1H14 a low 2.2% at BPS, 1.3% at BelVEB and 0.3% at BGPB. These
were adequately covered by loan impairment reserves (LIR). LIR
comprised 5%, 4.3%, 2.9% of gross loans, respectively for the
three banks.
However, downside risks for asset quality are high given
significant FX (mainly USD/EUR) lending of 70%-90% of loans for
the three banks while most borrowers are effectively unhedged.
In addition the banks have generally high borrower leverage,
large loan concentrations (top 25 credit exposures/FCC ratios
were in the range of 1.9x-3.0x for the three banks at end-1H14),
and face spillover effects from weaker economic growth and
potential external pressures.
In this context, loss absorption capacity is viewed as only
moderate at the three banks. Fitch estimates that at end-1H14,
loan impairment reserves/gross loans ratios could increase to 6%
(BPS) and to 11% (BelVEB and BGPB) without breaching the
regulatory capital adequacy (CAR) limit of 10%. As a moderate
mitigant, annualised pre-impairment profits (adjusted for
interest income accrued but not received in cash) were equal to
4.1% (BPS), 4.4% (BelVEB) and 7.3% (BGPB) of average gross loans
in 1H14.
Regulatory CARs remained moderate at end-3Q14 (BPS: 11.2%;
BelVEB: 13.2%; BGPB: 13.8%), with capital being pressured by
growth and asset inflation fuelled by a weaker rouble. These
pressures have been managed with parent support involving both
capital and subordinated debt injections (BPS, BelVEB) and risk
transfers (BPS). BGPB expects a USD150 million subordinated loan
from the parent in December 2014 to support growth targets and to
remain compliant with the CAR of 12%, covenanted in the bank's
funding agreements. Internal capital generation remains modest at
the three banks (1H14: net ROAE of 7.2% at BPS; 7.9% at BelVEB;
1.1% at BGPB).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Changes to the banks' IDRs are likely to be linked to changes in
the sovereign credit profile. A further weakening of the
sovereign could indicate a greater risk of transfer and
convertibility restrictions being introduced, which could result
in downward pressure on each of the banks' IDRs.
Banks' VRs could be downgraded if their financial profiles
deteriorate considerably as a result of marked asset quality
deterioration and capital erosion, without support being made
available.
The potential for positive rating actions on either the IDRs or
VRs is limited in the near term, given weaknesses in the economy
and external finances.
The rating actions are:
BPS-Sberbank
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'B-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'b-'
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'
BelVEB
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'B-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'b-'
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'
BGPB
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'B-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'b-'
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'
MECHEL OAO: MDM Can Still Participate in Debt Management
--------------------------------------------------------
Itar-Tass reports that MDM Bank CEO Timur Avdeyev on Nov. 26 said
the bank can still participate in the management of Mechel's
debt.
In October, MDM Bank sold Mechel's debt backed against a 15%
stake in the company to a large creditor, whose name was not
disclosed, Itar-Tass recounts.
Mechel, which was actively buying assets with loans amid the
2008-2009 global economic slump, cannot service its debt, which
has soared to over US$8 billion Itar-Tass notes. The company is
currently in talks with its major lenders to try to agree on
rescheduling its liabilities, Itar-Tass discloses.
Mechel's major creditors are Russia's largest lender Sberbank
(US$1.3 billion), Gazprombank (US$2.3 billion) and VTB Bank
(US$1.8 billion), Itar-Tass discloses.
Russian government officials earlier discussed various options of
restructuring Mechel's debts and stabilizing its financial
position, while also considering a possibility of the company's
bankruptcy, Itar-Tass recounts.
VTB and Sberbank filed lawsuits worth about RUR4.5 billion rubles
(US$96 million) against Mechel in autumn to recover overdue
debts, Itar-Tass relates.
Mechel's net debt amounts to US$8.1 billion, Itar-Tass states.
Mechel is a metals and mining group.
=========
S P A I N
=========
AYT CAJA MURCIA I: S&P Lowers Rating on Class C Notes to 'B-'
-------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services took various credit rating
actions in AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I, Fondo de Titulizacion
de Activos and AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II, Fondo de
Titulizacion de Activos.
Specifically, S&P has:
-- Lowered its ratings on AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I's
class A, B, and C notes;
-- Affirmed its ratings on AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II's
class A and B notes; and
-- Lowered its rating on AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II's
class C notes.
Upon publishing, S&P's updated criteria for Spanish residential
mortgage-backed securities (RMBS criteria) and its updated
criteria for rating single-jurisdiction securitizations above the
sovereign foreign currency rating (RAS criteria), S&P placed
those ratings that could potentially be affected "under criteria
observation".
Following S&P's review of these transactions, its ratings that
could potentially be affected by the criteria are no longer under
criteria observation.
The rating actions follow S&P's credit and cash flow analysis of
the most recent transaction information that S&P has received as
of July 2014 for AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I and Oct. 2014 for
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II. S&P's analysis reflects the
application of its RMBS criteria and its RAS criteria.
Under S&P's RAS criteria, it applied a hypothetical sovereign
default stress test to determine whether a tranche has sufficient
credit and structural support to withstand a sovereign default
and so repay timely interest and principal by legal final
maturity.
S&P's RAS criteria designate the country risk sensitivity for
RMBS as 'moderate'. Under S&P's RAS criteria, these
transactions' notes can therefore be rated four notches above the
sovereign rating, if they have sufficient credit enhancement to
pass a minimum of a "severe" stress. However, as not all of the
conditions in paragraph 48 of the RAS criteria are met, S&P
cannot assign any additional notches of uplift to the ratings in
these transactions.
As S&P's long-term rating on the Kingdom of Spain is 'BBB', its
RAS criteria cap at 'A+ (sf)' the maximum potential rating in
these transactions for all classes of notes.
The interest rate and basis swap for AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario
II does not satisfy S&P's current counterparty criteria, so it
gave no benefit to the swap in S&P's analysis at rating levels
above its long-term issuer credit rating on Cecabank S.A. as the
swap counterparty. S&P considered appropriate cash flow stresses
to address interest rate and basis risk in both transactions.
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I's class A notes' credit enhancement
has increased to 9.53% from 9.18% since S&P's previous review.
Over the same period, AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II's class A
notes' credit enhancement has also increased to 9.01% from 8.78%.
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I
Class Available Credit
Enhancement (%)
A 9.5
B 4.9
C 1.8
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II
Class Available Credit
Enhancement (%)
A 9.0
B 3.9
C 1.5
Both transactions feature amortizing reserve funds, which
currently represent 1.8% of AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I's
outstanding balance and 1.5% of AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II's
outstanding balance. The cash reserves are at their target
amounts for both transactions and started to amortize three years
after closing. In both transactions the reserve funds have
reached their respective floor levels and will not amortize
further.
Severe delinquencies of more than 90 days at 1.3% and 0.3% for
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I and AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II,
respectively, are on average lower than S&P's Spanish RMBS index.
Defaults are defined as mortgage loans in arrears for more than
540 days in both transactions. Cumulative defaults, at 0.1% for
both transactions, are also lower than in other Spanish RMBS
transactions that S&P rates. Prepayment levels for both
transactions remain low and the transactions are unlikely to pay
down significantly in the near term, in S&P's opinion.
After applying S&P's RMBS criteria to these transactions, its
credit analysis results show a decrease in the weighted-average
foreclosure frequency (WAFF) and an increase in the weighted-
average loss severity (WALS) for each rating level in both
transactions.
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) CC (%)
AAA 15.7 8.6 1.4
AA 12.2 6.6 0.8
A 10.2 4.1 0.4
BBB 7.6 3.0 0.2
BB 5.4 2.4 0.1
B 4.7 2.0 0.1
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) CC (%)
AAA 11.9 11.0 1.3
AA 9.1 8.3 0.8
A 7.5 5.2 0.4
BBB 5.5 4.1 0.2
BB 3.8 3.6 0.1
B 3.2 3.1 0.1
CC--Credit coverage.
The decreases in the WAFF are mainly due to the adjustments that
S&P applies to the original loan-to-value ratios, seasoned loans,
geographical province concentration, and adjustments that S&P
applies to jumbo loans under its updated RMBS criteria. The
increases in the WALS are mainly due to the application of S&P's
revised market value decline assumptions and the indexing of its
valuations under its RMBS criteria. The overall effect is an
increase in the required credit coverage for each rating level
for both transactions compared to our previous review.
Following the application of S&P's RAS criteria and its RMBS
criteria, S&P has determined that its assigned rating on each
class of notes in these transactions should be the lower of (i)
the rating as capped by S&P's RAS criteria and (ii) the rating
that the class of notes can attain under its RMBS criteria. In
both transactions, S&P's ratings on all classes of notes are not
constrained by the rating on the sovereign.
Following the application of S&P's RMBS criteria, and after it
applied its delayed recession timing and commingling loss, AyT
Caja Murcia Hipotecario I's class A notes' cash flow results
indicate that they can only withstand S&P's stresses at a 'A'
rating level. Consequently, S&P has lowered to 'A (sf)' from
'AA- (sf)' its rating on the class A notes.
In both transactions, the prorata conditions are currently met
and the notes are therefore repaying prorata. S&P has also
tested the cash flow outcomes under these conditions by applying
delayed recession timing and commingling loss. S&P's cash flow
analysis results indicate that these delayed assumptions are less
beneficial for all classes of notes. Additionally, under S&P's
RMBS criteria, it stressed a floating and fixed fee of 0.50% of
current outstanding balance and EUR50,000 per year, respectively.
The increased senior fees reduce available distribution amounts
for all classes of notes. S&P's cash flow analysis indicates
that the increased senior fees negatively affect the subordinated
classes of notes, as the fixed-fee component increases in
relative terms over time.
S&P's cash flow analysis also indicates that AyT Caja Murcia
Hipotecario I's class B and C notes can only withstand the
stresses that S&P applies at a 'BBB' and 'B-' rating level,
respectively. S&P has therefore lowered to 'BBB (sf)' from 'A
(sf)' its rating on the class B notes, and to 'B- (sf)' from 'BBB
(sf)' its rating on the class C notes.
The available credit enhancement for AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario
II's class A and B notes is commensurate with S&P's currently
assigned ratings. S&P has therefore affirmed its 'A (sf)' and
'BB+ (sf)' ratings on the class A and B notes, respectively.
At the same time, S&P's cash flow analysis indicates that AyT
Caja Murcia Hipotecario II's class C notes can only withstand the
stresses that S&P applies at a 'B-' rating level. S&P has
therefore lowered to 'B- (sf)' from 'BB+ (sf)' its rating on the
class C notes.
S&P also considers credit stability in its analysis. To reflect
moderate stress conditions, S&P adjusted its WAFF assumptions by
assuming additional arrears of 8% for one-year and three-year
horizons. This did not result in S&P's rating deteriorating
below the maximum projected deterioration that S&P would
associate with each relevant rating level, as outlined in its
credit stability criteria.
In S&P's opinion, the outlook for the Spanish residential
mortgage and real estate market is not benign and S&P has
therefore increased its expected 'B' foreclosure frequency
assumption to 3.33% from 2.00%, when it applies its RMBS
criteria, to reflect this view. S&P bases these assumptions on
its expectation of modest economic growth, continuing high
unemployment, and further falls in house prices for the remainder
of 2014, which will then level off in 2015.
On the back of improving but still depressed macroeconomic
conditions, S&P don't expect the performance of the transactions
in its Spanish RMBS index to improve in 2014.
S&P expects severe arrears in the portfolio to remain at their
current levels, as there are a number of downside risks. These
include modest economic growth, continuing high unemployment, and
further falls in house prices. On the positive side, S&P expects
interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future.
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I and AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II
are Spanish RMBS transactions, which closed in Dec. 2005 and Nov.
2006, respectively. The transactions securitize a pool of first-
ranking mortgage loans that Caja Murcia (now Banca Mare Nostrum)
originated. The mortgage loans are mainly located in the
province of Murcia and the transactions comprise loans granted to
prime borrowers.
RATINGS LIST
Class Rating Rating
To From
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario I, Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos
EUR350 Million Residential Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes
Ratings Lowered
A A (sf) AA- (sf)
B BBB (sf) A (sf)
C B- (sf) BBB (sf)
AyT Caja Murcia Hipotecario II, Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos
EUR315 Million Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes
Ratings Affirmed
A A (sf)
B BB+ (sf)
Rating Lowered
C B- (sf) BB+ (sf)
CASER SA: Moody's Affirms 'B' IFSR & Changes Outlook to Positive
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Caser S.A.'s B1 insurance
financial strength rating (IFSR). The outlook has been changed to
positive from negative.
Ratings Rationale
The change to a positive outlook follows Caser's improvement in
credit fundamentals driven by a significant de-risking exercise
with a more conservative investment approach and particularly a
material reduction in exposure to owner banks' investments. In
addition, Caser has incurred lower investment losses on bank
hybrids compared with Moody's prior expectations. Moody's
expectation of a continuation of these derisking trends, combined
with a continuation of Caser's good underlying profitability,
underlies Moody's positive outlook for the rating. Moody's
expects to resolve the positive outlook within the next six to
nine months.
Caser's investment quality has improved significantly through
2013. The group has reduced most of its exposure to Spanish bank
hybrids mainly through disposals, particularly for hybrids that
defaulted, and through amortization and reinvestment for other
higher-rated banks' hybrids. Caser sold a large proportion of the
shares received from hybrids, but it still retained some exposure
to the shares received from BMN (unrated), NCG Banco S.A. (Caa1
negative) and Liberbank (B1 negative) at year-end 2013.
Nevertheless, this exposure is relatively moderate and is
accounted at prudent valuations in Moody's view. In addition,
Caser has reoriented its investment policy towards higher-rated
Spanish sovereign debt (Baa2 positive), which represented around
51% of the fixed income securities at year-end 2013.
Caser's B1 IFSR continues to reflect the company's meaningful
exposure to its banking owners and distribution partners,
notwithstanding the significant reductions in asset exposure and
particularly in exposure to bank's hybrids. Moody's believe the
investment concentration to banking distributor partners will
continue to constrain Caser's credit strengths, which include its
low-risk liability profile, good profitability fundamentals
through the cycle and conservative reserving policy. Caser
historically had significant exposure to banking distributors and
owners' hybrid debt, out of which a significant proportion was
with banks that were bailed out and therefore led to sizeable
losses at year-end 2012. Caser continued to report investment
losses in 2013 although profitability in aggregate rebounded in
2013 with a consolidated profit after tax of EUR52 million, up
from a sizeable loss of EUR283 million at year-end 2012.
Excluding investment losses and other one-offs, Caser reported an
estimated operational ROE of 8% at year-end 2013. Given Caser's
material restructuring exercise in recent years, Moody's expect
Caser to report operational ROE between 6%-8% over the medium
term.
The exit of bancassurance agreements crystallized gains arising
from the monetization of intangibles, which are a positive for
Caser's tangible equity. These gains strengthened Caser's cover
of provisions, the second pillar of insurance regulatory
supervision in Spain, to a surplus of EUR271 million at year-end
2013 from a deficit of EUR29million in the previous year.
Furthermore, Caser's solvency margins remains strong (YE 2013:
2x), although intangibles continue to remain elevated despite the
sizeable reductions over recent years.
Ratings Drivers
Upward pressure on the IFSR could occur as a result of:
-- Continued improvements in investment quality, particularly
further material reduction in concentration to banking
distributors' investments
-- A stabilization in the ratings of Caser's owner banks
Downward pressure is unlikely given the positive outlook.
However, the IFSR rating may stabilize if:
-- Concentration to investments in banking distributors and
owners remains large in relation to Caser's shareholders'
equity
-- A deterioration in the credit quality of Caser's banking
owners
List of Affected Ratings
The following insurance financial strength rating was affirmed
with a positive outlook:
Caser S.A. -- B1 IFSR
Principal Methodologies
The methodologies used in this rating were Global Life Insurers
published in August 2014, and Global Property and Casualty
Insurers published in August 2014.
NH HOTELES: Fitch Affirms 'B-' Long-Term IDR; Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed NH Hoteles S.A's. (NHH) Long-term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B-' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch
has also affirmed NHH's EUR250m 2019 senior secured notes at
'B+'/'RR2.'
NHH's ratings are supported by its improving operational profile,
with some geographical diversification outside its core Spanish
and European urban hotel market. The ratings are further
underpinned by the successful financial restructuring of the
capital structure in 4Q13 and scope for raising resources from
asset divestments. The ratings are constrained by the past
under-investment in the hotel portfolio, which now requires
substantial capex investment to upgrade the hotel stock to
current standards. This will mean further material cash outflows
in 2015 and 2016, which will constrain financial flexibility that
is already hampered by high leverage (FFO lease adjusted net
leverage of 9.0x at FY13).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Operational Performance Improving
NHH's nine months results for 2014 showed much faster revenue per
available room (RevPar) growth at 3.7%, underpinned by price
increases on the back of increasing hotel refurbishments.
Encouragingly, for the first time since 2008, average room rate
price increases were above those from increased occupancy. The
2014 full year EBITDA guidance has been maintained, which assumes
growth in RevPar of between 3% and 5% overall for the year.
Attractive Hotel Portfolio
The majority of NHH's properties are in or around major European
and Latin American cities. As a result, the portfolio's
valuation (EUR1.5bn at FY13) has proven resilient and become a
primary source of liquidity in recent years. The properties
further benefit the group by serving as collateral for the
group's secured debt.
Leverage Remains High
While the net debt remains high at EUR756 million (not including
the net cash from the Sotogrande disposal) at September 2014,
NHH's capital structure at end-2014 may be improved by asset
divestments and reduced lease charges. NHH has been
renegotiating lease agreements in some Spanish hotels and
terminating loss-making contracts where possible.
Reducing Leases
Since 2008 NHH has increased the properties under management to
24% from 13% of the total portfolio. During 2013, the group
terminated eight leases and renegotiated 48 lease contracts,
resulting in a rental expense reduction of around EUR17 million
per year. The on-going portfolio optimization is aimed at exiting
a further 25 leased non-core hotel assets by 2016 and will result
not only in annual savings, but should also improve the quality
of the remaining hotels.
Successful Asset Disposal
NHH sold the Sotogrande estate in 2H14 for EUR178 million, which
will improve financial flexibility, allowing for further debt
re-payment or capex spending, or a combination of the two.
Asset-light Slowly Increasing
The asset sales also demonstrate NHH's move to increase the
portion of the overall portfolio under a "managed" format rather
than the "owned" structure currently in place. Performance by
peers operating with this business model shows that it combines
the benefits of lower capex needs with a reduction in the
volatility of profits. NHH is continuing to increase the number
of hotels under the management format. Furthermore, the company
has reinforced its relationship with its new Chinese investor
HNA, which will give the group opportunities for more management
contracts in Asia.
Liquidity Position
Available cash will remain limited in 2015 and 2016 mainly due to
the heavy investment to both refurbish and upgrade the hotels,
and modernize the online and IT systems. This is to make up for
the underinvestment between 2010 and 2012. While asset sales
will reinforce the liquidity position, the capex investment and
the amortization plan for the current debt will continue to
impact cash positions and drawings under the RCF could be
possible by 2016.
Weak Credit Metrics
Leverage and FFO cover remain firmly in the lower 'B' category
with deleveraging likely to be modest over the medium term. With
Fitch-estimated FFO net leverage of around 8.2x at FYE14, NHH's
leverage compares weakly with other rated hotel and leisure peers
such as Accor and Whitbread. As Fitch does not expect
significant deleveraging over 2015 and 2016 due to cash being
allocated to capex, NHH's credit metrics will remain a
constraining factor on the ratings.
New Equity Investor
In Feb. 2013, NHH announced a EUR235m capital increase through a
new 20% equity stake by HNA, a privately-owned Chinese multi-
sector leisure group. This agreement not only brings in
additional funds to the group but opens up new opportunities in
Asia. In Sept. 2014, the company signed a joint venture
agreement with HNA Group to develop a portfolio of hotels in
China under management contracts with HNA and third parties.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating
actions include:
-- Lease adjusted net debt (including non-recourse
securitization)/ EBITDAR below 6.5x or FFO lease-adjusted
net leverage below 7.0x on a sustained basis.
-- EBITDAR/gross interest + rent above 1.5x.
-- Group EBITDA margin (excluding one-time gains) sustained at
or above 10%.
-- Demonstrate a path to sustained positive FCFs.
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating
action include:
-- Continued free cash outflows resulting in strained
liquidity.
-- Lease-adjusted net leverage above 9.0x.
-- Group EBITDA margin excluding capital gain below 6%.
-- EBITDAR/(rent + interest) below 1.1x.
PYMES SANTANDER 10: Moody's Rates EUR760MM Serie C Notes 'Ca'
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned the following definitive
ratings to the debts issued by Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos
PYMES SANTANDER 10 (the Fondo):
EUR2907M Serie A Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR893M Serie B Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR760M Serie C Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Ca (sf)
FTA PYMES SANTANDER 10 is a securitization of standard loans and
credit lines mainly granted by Banco Santander S.A. (Spain)
(Santander; Baa1/P-2; Stable Outlook) to small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) and self-employed individuals.
At closing, the Fondo -- a newly formed limited-liability entity
incorporated under the laws of Spain -- have issued three series
of rated notes. Santander will act as servicer of the loans and
credit lines for the Fondo, while Santander de Titulizacion
S.G.F.T., S.A. will be the management company (Gestora) of the
Fondo.
Ratings Rationale
As of October 2014, the audited provisional asset pool of
underlying assets was composed of a portfolio of 50,411 contracts
granted to SMEs and self-employed individuals located in Spain.
In terms of outstanding amounts, around 81.34% corresponds to
standard loans and 18.66% to credit lines. The assets were
originated mainly between 2013 and 2014 and have a weighted
average seasoning of 2.31 years and a weighted average remaining
term of 5.18 years. Around 22.13% of the portfolio is secured by
first-lien mortgage guarantees. Geographically, the pool is
concentrated mostly in Madrid (23.6%), Catalonia (15.45%) and
Andalusia (14.40%). At closing, any loans in arrears more than 15
days will be excluded from the final pool.
In Moody's view, the strong credit positive features of this deal
include, among others: (i) a relatively short weighted average
life of around 2.8 years; (ii) a granular pool (the effective
number of obligors over 1,300); and (iii) a geographically well-
diversified portfolio. However, the transaction has several
challenging features: (i) a strong linkage to Santander related
to its originator, servicer, accounts holder and liquidity line
provider roles; (ii) no interest rate hedge mechanism in place;
and (iii) a complex mechanism that allows the Fondo to compensate
(daily) the increase on the disposed amount of certain credit
lines with the decrease of the disposed amount from other lines,
and/or the amortization of the standard loans. These
characteristics were reflected in Moody's analysis and definitive
ratings, where several simulations tested the available credit
enhancement and 20% reserve fund to cover potential shortfalls in
interest or principal envisioned in the transaction structure.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, its diversity, the structural features of the
transaction and its legal integrity.
The ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the
legal final maturity of the notes. In Moody's opinion, the
structure allows for timely payment of interest and ultimate
payment of principal with respect to the Notes by the legal final
maturity. Moody's ratings address only the credit risk associated
with the transaction, Other non-credit risks have not been
addressed but may have a significant effect on yield to
investors.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Global
Approach to Rating SME Balance Sheet Securitizations published in
January 2014.
For rating this transaction, Moody's used the following models:
(i) ABSROM to model the cash flows and determine the loss for
each tranche and (ii) CDOROM to determine the coefficient of
variation of the default definition applicable to this
transaction.
Loss and Cash Flow Analysis:
Moody's ABSROM cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios
that are then weighted considering the probabilities of such
default scenarios as defined by the transaction-specific default
distribution. On the recovery side Moody's assumes a stochastic
(normal) recovery distribution which is correlated to the default
distribution. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss
for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash
flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties
and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss for each tranche is
the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each
default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow
model in each default scenario for each tranche. As such, Moody's
analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.
Moody's used CDOROM to determine the coefficient of variation of
the default distribution for this transaction. The Moody's
CDOROM(TM) model is a Monte Carlo simulation which takes borrower
specific Moody's default probabilities as input. Each borrower
reference entity is modelled individually with a standard multi-
factor model incorporating intra- and inter-industry correlation.
The correlation structure is based on a Gaussian copula. In each
Monte Carlo scenario, defaults are simulated.
In its quantitative assessment, Moody's assumed a mean default
rate of 16.94%, with a coefficient of variation of 35.75% and a
recovery rate of 40.0%.
Stress Scenarios:
Moody's also tested other set of assumptions under its Parameter
Sensitivities analysis. For instance, if the assumed default
probability of 16.94%% used in determining the initial rating was
changed to 19.5% and the recovery rate of 40% was changed to 35%,
the model-indicated rating for Serie A, Serie B and Serie C of
A2(sf), Baa3(sf) and Ca(sf) would be A3(sf), Ba2(sf) and Ca(sf)
respectively. For more details, please refer to the full
Parameter Sensitivity analysis included in the New Issue Report
of this transaction.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings affected by the action would be (1) worse-than-expected
performance of the underlying collateral; (2) an increase in
counterparty risk, such as a downgrade of the rating of
Santander.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings affected by the action would be the better-than-expected
performance of the underlying assets and a decline in a decline
in counterparty risk.
SANTANDER CONSUMER 2014-1: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'CCsf'
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned FTA Santander Consumer Spain Auto
2014-1's asset-backed fixed-rate notes, due on June 2032, final
ratings as:
EUR703 million class A notes: 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
EUR27.4 million class B notes: 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
EUR15.2 million class C notes: 'BB+ sf'; Outlook Stable
EUR14.4 million class D notes: 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
EUR38 million class E notes: 'CCsf'; Recovery Estimate 75%
This securitization of auto loans is the 11th transaction
originated in Spain by Santander Consumer EFC SA, a wholly-owned
and fully integrated subsidiary of Santander Consumer Finance
(A-/Stable/F2), whose ultimate parent is Banco Santander S.A.
(A-/Stable/F2).
The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and the
ultimate payment of principal on the class A notes and the
ultimate payment of interest and principal on the remaining
classes in accordance with the terms and conditions of the notes.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Revolving Transaction
Fitch views that the transaction's 48-month revolving period
allows for limited portfolio credit quality deterioration. The
transfer of new eligible assets is subject to early amortization
events, as well as limits on important portfolio characteristics.
Potential migration to a worst case (WC) portfolio composition
during the revolving period is reflected in the rating analysis.
The triggers are considered appropriate to stop revolving in a
scenario of asset performance deterioration.
Key Assumptions
Fitch has analyzed the portfolio's credit profile and formed
specific performance expectations for new and used car auto
loans. Fitch's base case default rates of 4.5% and 7.5% for new
and used car loans, respectively, combined with recovery
expectations of 35% and 30%, result in our expected base case
lifetime loss rates of 2.9% and 5.3%. The weighted average base
case loss rate is initially 3.4% and could increase to 3.6%, as
loans granted for the acquisition of new vehicles and used cars
represent 70% and 30%, respectively, of the WC portfolio.
The above base case expectation for portfolio losses is lower
than the 4.8% equivalent of last year's auto transaction (FTA
Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2013-1) from the same originator.
The lower base case loss rate is mainly due to the observed
improved performance of existing securitization transactions with
similar eligibility criteria and the stricter underwriting
business model of the originator as reflected in the evolution of
the performance of the total auto loan book of the bank in recent
years. To determine the default base case, Fitch has analyzed
historical data with a 180 days in arrears default definition.
Credit Enhancement (CE)
Excess spread provides the first layer of protection against
losses. Additional CE is available to class A to C notes from
asset overcollateralization (7.5%, 3.9% and 1.9% as of closing
for classes A, B and C, respectively) and the cash reserve, which
also provides CE to class D (5% as of closing). The transaction
features a mechanism that will trap excess spread to provision
for defaults (defined as loans in arrears for more than one
year).
Fitch does not expect full repayment of the class E notes as the
only source of CE is excess spread, which in our view is not
sufficient to cover late defaults and class E note interest.
No Interest Rate Risk
The transaction is not exposed to interest rate risk since the
notes and the collateral are both linked to fixed interest rates.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unexpected increases in the default rate and loss severity on
defaulted loans could produce loss levels greater than the base
case and could result in negative rating actions on the notes.
Rating Sensitivity to Increased Default Rate Assumptions
Classes A, B, C, and D notes
Current default rate (DR) base case: 'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Increase DR base case by 15%: 'A-sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'BB-sf'
Increase DR base case by 30%: 'BBB+sf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'/'B+sf'
Increase DR base case by 45%: 'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BB-sf'/'Bsf'
Rating Sensitivity to Reduced Recovery Rate Assumptions
Classes A, B, C, and D notes
Current recovery rate (RR) base case:
'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Reduce RR base case by 15%: 'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BB-sf'
Reduce RR base case by 30%: 'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'BB-sf'
Reduce RR base case by 45%: 'A-sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'B+sf'
Rating Sensitivity to Multiple Factors
Classes A, B, C, and D notes
Current base case assumptions: 'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Mild stress: Increase DR base case by 15%, reduce RR base case by
15%: : 'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'B+sf'
Moderate stress: Increase DR base case by 30%, reduce RR base
case by 30%: 'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BB-sf'/'Bsf'
Severe stress: Increase DR base case by 45%, reduce RR base case
by 45%: 'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'Bsf'/'CCCsf ' or below
UCI 10: S&P Lowers Rating on Class B Notes to 'B-'
--------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its credit ratings in
Fondo de Titulizacion Hipotecaria UCI 10, Fondo de Titulizacion
de Activos UCI 11, and Fondo de Titulizacion Hipotecaria UCI 12.
Specifically, S&P has:
-- Lowered its ratings on UCI 10's class A and B notes; and
-- Lowered its ratings on the class A, B, and C notes in UCI
11 and 12.
Upon publishing S&P's updated criteria for Spanish residential
mortgage-backed securities (RMBS criteria) and its updated
criteria for rating single-jurisdiction securitizations above the
sovereign foreign currency rating (RAS criteria), S&P placed
those ratings that could potentially be affected "under criteria
observation".
Following S&P's review of these transactions, its ratings that
could potentially be affected by the criteria are no longer under
criteria observation.
The rating actions follow S&P's credit and cash flow analysis of
the most recent transaction information that it has received as
of Sept. 2014. S&P's analysis reflects the application of its
RMBS criteria and its RAS criteria.
S&P's RAS criteria designate the country risk sensitivity for
RMBS as 'moderate'. Under S&P's RAS criteria, these
transactions' notes can therefore be rated four notches above the
sovereign rating, if they have sufficient credit enhancement to
pass a minimum of a "severe" stress.
As S&P's long-term rating on the Kingdom of Spain is 'BBB', its
RAS criteria cap at 'AA (sf)' the maximum potential rating in
these transactions for the class A notes. The maximum potential
rating for all other classes of notes is 'A+ (sf)'.
As all six of the conditions in paragraph 48 of the RAS criteria
are met in UCI 10, UCI 11, and UCI 12, S&P could assign ratings
in these three transactions up to a maximum of six notches (two
additional notches of uplift) above the sovereign rating, subject
to credit enhancement being sufficient to pass an "extreme"
stress.
Following the application of S&P's RAS criteria and its RMBS
criteria, S&P has determined that its assigned rating on each
class of notes in these transactions should be the lower of (i)
the rating as capped by S&P's RAS criteria and (ii) the rating
that the class of notes can attain under its RMBS criteria.
Credit enhancement levels have increased in these three
transactions due to the amortization of the class A notes. Their
reserve funds are unused. Only UCI 10's reserve fund has been
able to amortize.
Class Available Credit
Enhancement (%)
UCI 10
A 6.12
B 0.00
Credit enhancement for the class A notes has increased to 6.12%
from 3.00% at closing. In UCI 10, credit enhancement level
solely arises from note subordination, as the reserve fund ranks
prior to the notes' amortization in the priority of payments.
UCI 11
A 15.89
B 13.14
C 2.65
Since closing, the available credit enhancement has increased for
the class A notes (to 15.89% from 4.90%), B notes (to 13.14% from
4.19%), and C notes (to 2.65% from 1.50%), respectively. Current
credit enhancement levels do not reflect defaulted loans, or
loans in arrears for more than 90 days.
UCI 12
A 4.79
B 1.50
C 0.00
Since closing, the available credit enhancement has increased for
the class A notes (to 10.90% from 4.79%), B notes (to 7.90% from
3.79%), and C notes (to -0.04% from 1.15%), respectively.
Current credit enhancement levels do not reflect defaulted loans,
or loans in arrears for more than 90 days.
These transactions feature an amortizing reserve fund. In UCI
10, the reserve fund is subordinate to the notes' amortization in
the priority of payments. UCI 11 and 12's reserve funds are
senior to the notes' amortization and the interest deferral. The
reserve funds are at their target levels. Only UCI 10's has been
able to amortize in the past due to the transaction's stable
performance. Although UCI 11 and 12's performance has been
stable, 90+ days delinquencies have been above trigger levels for
their reserve funds to amortize. Of the outstanding balance of
the notes, the reserve funds represent 4.94% for UCI 10, 5.66%
for UCI 11, and 3.33% for UCI 12, respectively.
Severe delinquencies of more than 90 days are at 1.55% for UCI
10, 3.08% for UCI 11, and 3.72% for UCI 12, and are on average
lower for these transactions than S&P's Spanish RMBS index. The
performance of the transactions has been stable since Q1 2011.
However, arrears levels are too high for the subordinated notes
to amortize pro rata. Only UCI 10's class B notes have been able
to amortize pro rata.
After applying S&P's RMBS criteria to all three transactions, its
credit analysis results show low weighted-average foreclosure
frequency (WAFF) and weighted-average loss severity (WALS) for
each rating level due to the seasoning of the pools, stable
performance, and the evolution of Spanish house prices.
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%)
UCI 10
AA 24.62 3.97
BBB 19.03 2.00
UCI 11
AA 25.90 16.84
BBB 19.17 8.44
UCI 12
AA 22.55 16.31
BBB 14.97 6.82
Given that UCI 10 pool's attributes indicate better credit
quality than the archetype, S&P increased the projected loss that
it modeled to meet the minimum floor under its criteria in this
transaction.
Taking into account the results of S&P's updated credit and cash
flow analysis and the application of its RAS criteria, S&P
considers the available credit enhancement for all of the
tranches in UCI 10, 11, and UCI 12 to be commensurate with lower
rating levels.
Under S&P's RMBS criteria, UCI 10's class A notes' maximum
achievable rating is 'BBB- (sf)'. Consequently, S&P has lowered
to 'BBB- (sf)' from 'AA (sf)' its rating on UCI 10's class A
notes.
Under S&P's RAS criteria, UCI 11 and 12's class A notes' maximum
achievable ratings are 'A (sf)' and 'A+ (sf)', respectively.
Therefore, S&P has lowered its ratings on UCI 11 and UCI 12's
class A notes to these rating levels.
All three transactions have an interest deferral trigger for the
subordinated notes. In UCI 10, this trigger is based on the 90+
day delinquencies level over the assets' outstanding balance. In
UCI 11 and 12, this trigger is based on the available fund after
senior payments.
Given the collateral's stable performance in all three
transactions, S&P don't expect the interest deferral triggers to
be breached in the short to medium term, even if the class A
notes' rate of amortization is decreasing. Nevertheless, in a
stressful environment, under S&P's Spanish RMBS criteria, the
interest deferral triggers for the subordinated notes would be
reached sooner. Consequently, interest shortfalls would occur
until recoveries start accruing. S&P has therefore lowered its
ratings on UCI 10's class B notes, as well as its ratings on the
class B and C notes in UCI 11 and 12, respectively.
S&P also considers credit stability in its analysis. To reflect
moderate stress conditions, S&P adjusted its WAFF assumptions by
assuming additional arrears of 8%, split equally between the one-
month and the three-month buckets for a one-year horizon, and 8%
arrears concentrated in the three-month bucket for the three-year
horizon. This did not result in S&P's rating deteriorating below
the maximum projected deterioration that it would associate with
each relevant rating level, as outlined in S&P's credit stability
criteria.
In S&P's opinion, the outlook for the Spanish residential
mortgage and real estate market is not benign and it has
therefore increased its expected 'B' foreclosure frequency
assumption to 3.33% from 2.00%, when it applies its RMBS
criteria, to reflect this view. S&P bases these assumptions on
its expectation of modest economic growth, continuing high
unemployment, and further falls in house prices for the remainder
of 2014, which will then level off in 2015.
On the back of improving but still depressed macroeconomic
conditions, S&P don't expect the performance of the transactions
in its Spanish RMBS index to improve in 2014.
S&P expects severe arrears in the portfolio to remain at their
current levels, as there are a number of downside risks. These
include modest economic growth, continuing high unemployment, and
further falls in house prices. On the positive side, S&P expects
interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future.
UCI 10, UCI 11, and UCI 12 are Spanish RMBS transactions, which
closed in May 2004, Nov. 2004, and June 2005, respectively. They
securitize portfolios of residential mortgage loans, which Union
de Creditos Inmobiliarios, Establecimiento Financiero de Credito
originated. The residential mortgage loans are distributed among
all Spanish regions.
RATINGS LIST
Ratings Lowered
Class Rating Rating
To From
Fondo de Titulizacion Hipotecaria UCI 10
EUR700 Million Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes
A BBB- (sf) AA (sf)
B B- (sf) BB (sf)
Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos UCI 11
EUR850 Million Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes
A A (sf) AA (sf)
B BB- (sf) BBB (sf)
C B- (sf) BB (sf)
Fondo de Titulizacion Hipotecaria UCI 12
EUR900 Million Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes
A A+ (sf) AA (sf)
B B+ (sf) BBB+ (sf)
C B- (sf) BB (sf)
===========
S W E D E N
===========
SAAB AUTOMOBILE: NEVS Wants Bankruptcy Protection Extended
----------------------------------------------------------
According to dpa, National Electric Vehicle Sweden, the owner of
struggling Swedish carmaker Saab, on Dec. 1 applied for a
three-month extension of bankruptcy protection that had expired
at the weekend, arguing that talks were progressing with a
potential new owner.
Chinese-backed consortium NEVS took over the ailing carmaker in
2012, dpa recounts.
NEVS said on inked a preliminary agreement with an unnamed Asian
carmaker that is interested in becoming new majority owner, dpa
notes, citing papers filed at Vanersborg District Court.
The papers said the so-called term sheet outlines terms and
financing of operations, dpa notes. The package also includes a
bridge loan of EUR5 million (US$6.2 million) until the deal is
completed, which is expected in February, dpa relays.
The board of the potential new owner has yet to give its
approval, dpa states.
In anticipation of that bridge loan, NEVS said it has secured a
separate EUR5 million loan from another unnamed entity to tide
the carmaker over until it seals the deal with the new owner, dpa
relates.
According to dpa, NEVS was also negotiating with another separate
Asian carmaker about cooperation on a project, which could also
generate funds.
The reorganization began at the end of August, dpa recounts. In
October, a creditors' committee was formed, dpa relates.
According to dpa, court-appointed administrator Lars Eric
Gustafsson said the committee has backed the extension request.
Production at the plant was halted in May, dpa notes.
About Saab Automobile
Saab Automobile AB is a Swedish car manufacturer owned by Dutch
automobile manufacturer Swedish Automobile NV, formerly Spyker
Cars NV. Saab halted production in March 2011 when it ran out of
cash to pay its component providers. On Dec. 19, 2011, Saab
Automobile AB, Saab Automobile Tools AB and Saab Powertain AB
filed for bankruptcy after running out of cash.
Some of Saab's assets were sold to National Electric Vehicle
Sweden AB, a Chinese-Japanese backed start-up that plans to make
an electric car using Saab Automobile's former factory, tools and
designs.
On Jan. 30, 2012, more than 40 U.S.-based Saab dealerships filed
an involuntary Chapter 11 petition for Saab Cars North America,
Inc. (Bankr. D. Del. Case No. 12-10344). The petitioners,
represented by Wilk Auslander LLP, assert claims totaling US$1.2
million on account of "unpaid warranty and incentive
reimbursement and related obligations" or "parts and warranty
reimbursement." Leonard A. Bellavia, Esq., at Bellavia Gentile &
Associates, in New York, signed the Chapter 11 petition on behalf
of the dealers.
The dealers want the vehicle inventory and the parts business to
be sold, free of liens from Ally Financial Inc. and Caterpillar
Inc., and "to have an appropriate forum to address the claims of
the dealers," Leonard A. Bellavia said in an e-mail to Bloomberg
News.
Saab Cars N.A. is the U.S. sales and distribution unit of Swedish
car maker Saab Automobile AB. Saab Cars N.A. named in December
an outside administrator, McTevia & Associates, to run the
company as part of a plan to avoid immediate liquidation
following its parent company's bankruptcy filing.
On Feb. 24, 2012, the Court granted Saab Cars NA relief under
Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code.
Donlin, Recano & Company, Inc., was retained as claims and
noticing agent to Saab Cars NA in the Chapter 11 case.
On March 9, 2012, the U.S. Trustee formed an official Committee
of Unsecured Creditors and appointed these members: Peter Mueller
Inc., IFS Vehicle Distributors, Countryside Volkwagen, Saab of
North Olmstead, Saab of Bedford, Whitcomb Motors Inc., and
Delaware Motor Sales, Inc. The Committee tapped Wilk Auslander
LLP as general bankruptcy counsel, and Polsinelli Shughart as its
Delaware counsel.
The Troubled Company Reporter, on July 18, 2013, reported that
the U.S. arm of Saab Automobile AB won approval of its Chapter 11
liquidation plan, marking the end of the road for Swedish auto
maker's bankruptcy proceedings.
VOLVO TREASURY: Moody's Rates Sub. Hybrid Securities '(P)Ba1'
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a provisional (P)Ba1 long-
term rating to the proposed new subordinated hybrid securities to
be issued by Volvo Treasury AB and guaranteed by AB Volvo (Volvo,
Baa2 negative). The size and completion of the transaction are
subject to market conditions. The outlook on the rating is
negative.
Moody's issues provisional ratings in advance of the final sale
of securities and these ratings reflect Moody's preliminary
credit opinion regarding the transaction only. Upon a conclusive
review of the final documentation, Moody's will endeavor to
assign a definitive rating to the hybrid, which may differ from a
provisional rating.
Ratings Rationale
The assignment of a (P)Ba1 long-term rating to the proposed new
subordinated fixed to reset rate capital securities to be issued
by Volvo Treasury and guaranteed by Volvo is two notches below
Volvo's Baa2 long-term issuer rating. The notching of the
proposed instruments reflects their characteristics as (1) very
long-dated, (2) subordinated and senior only to the company's
common shares, (3) allowing for the deferral of the coupons on a
cumulative basis and (4) without coupon step-ups before year 10
and limited to 100 basis points in total.
As such the proposed capital securities -- consisting of a
5.5-year non-callable tranche and a 8.25-year non-callable
tranche -- will be eligible to a Basket C or 50% equity credit
treatment for the purpose of Moody's calculations of Volvo's
credit ratios (please refer to Moody's Cross-Sector Rating
Methodology 'Revisions to Moody's Hybrid Tool Kit' published in
July 2010).
The Baa2 long-term issuer rating of Volvo is supported by (1) a
robust competitive position within the global trucks market with
a good brand recognition and solid market shares in several of
its key markets in the Americas, Europe and Asia; (2) a good
geographic diversification; (3) a young model range for both
Volvo and Renault trucks brands, which supported a positive price
realisation in the first nine months of 2014; (4) a positive
business momentum in North America and in certain areas in Asia,
which (i) supported volume growth in the first nine months of
2014 and (ii) will support future growth, albeit at a slower
pace, in the next 12 months; (5) generally prudent financial
policies; and (6) ongoing organization-wide initiatives expected
to enhance Volvo's operational leverage as a result of the cost-
cutting and re-organization measures.
In this respect, Moody's views positively Volvo's recent
announcement of new structural cost reductions amounting to
SEK3.5 billion consisting of cost reductions within the company's
construction equipment division, the reorganization of sales and
marketing in its trucks division and a review of its core and
non-core IT activities. These new initiatives would bring Volvo's
overall structural cost reductions to SEK10 billion by the end of
2015 with full effect in 2016. In Moody's opinion, the good
execution of this profit enhancement program will be instrumental
in improving the company's competitiveness within the highly
cyclical and competitive trucks industry. By reducing its
structural costs, Moody's believes that Volvo will gain greater
operational agility (especially at times of falling volumes) and
it will ultimately help narrow the margin gap with other global
rated truck manufacturers.
On the assumption that Volvo will use the proceeds from the
proposed issuance to repay external borrowings, Moody's believes
that the proposed capital securities will position Volvo's
financial ratios more comfortably within the Baa2 rating category
by 2015. The issuance of the proposed capital securities also
illustrates Volvo's intention to reinforce its capital structure
at a time when trading conditions within the global trucks and
construction equipment industries in Europe, Latin America and
China are difficult.
However, Volvo's ratings are constrained by (1) the high
cyclicality and capital intensity of the truck and construction
equipment markets; (2) the company's fluctuating operating and
financial performance over the past five years; (3) the low
profitability of Volvo compared to other global truck
manufacturers; and (4) the uncertainties weighing on the outlook
of certain of the company's trucks and construction equipment
markets.
These constraints have been recently illustrated by Volvo's
decision to book a provision for expected credit losses related
to Volvo Construction Equipment in China of SEK650 million in the
final quarter of 2014, albeit with limited cash effect then. The
division has been hurt in the recent past by (1) low demand,
especially within the mining sector; and (2) low capacity
utilization, which the company intends to remedy over time.
Moreover, whilst Moody's acknowledges that Volvo's ongoing
restructuring program has delivered positive results since the
start of 2014, the company has yet to deliver a large amount of
structural cost reductions in 2015 in order to achieve its
target.
Moody's considers that the added benefits from the proposed
issuance will be partly offset by the potential cash outflow, the
timing and size of which are uncertain at this point, related to
the ongoing European Union antitrust investigation. In this
respect, Volvo said that it will make a (non-cash) provision for
a substantial amount of EUR400 million (approximately SEK3.7
billion), which will weigh on its operating income in the final
quarter of 2014.
Rationale for Negative Outlook
The negative outlook reflects Moody's concerns that Volvo will
face challenges this year in terms of rebuilding its
profitability and credit metrics to levels that would position
its rating more solidly in the Baa2 category.
What Could Change the Rating Up/Down
A rating upgrade is unlikely over the short-to-medium term
considering the currently weak credit metrics. Moody's could
stabilize the outlook if Volvo delivers successfully on its
structural cost reduction program such that it improves its
competitiveness within the industry with a steady improvement in
its operating margins and leverage despite near-term volatility
in demand within certain of its core markets.
Over time, Moody's could consider upgrading the rating if (1)
Volvo has the ability to achieve and maintain a strong operating
performance through the cycle, as indicated by an adjusted EBIT-
margin above 8% on a sustainable basis; (2) the company displays
at least stable market share performance in the key regions of
its business segments; and (3) there is evidence that Volvo can
maintain reasonable financial metrics throughout the cycle, such
as (i) a Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio trending towards 2.5x
and falling below 2.0x in the peak of a cycle and (ii) a retained
cash flow/net debt ratio remaining above 30% through the cycle.
Moreover, Moody's expects that Volvo would be able maintain a
solid liquidity profile with cash needs being covered with cash
sources for more than the next 12 months under the rating
agency's scenario, whereby the company has no access to the debt
capital markets.
Volvo's Baa2 ratings could come under pressure absent a
continuous recovery in key financial metrics over the next few
quarters evidenced by an improvement in Volvo's EBIT margin
towards 5% in 2014, as well as debt/EBITDA reducing towards 3.0x.
In addition, failure to generate a positive free cash flow could
lead to a downgrade. Weakening asset performance at Volvo
Financial Services and increasing credit losses could also put
pressure on the rating.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in this rating was Global
Manufacturing Companies published in July 2014.
Headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden, AB Volvo is a global
manufacturer of trucks, buses and construction equipment, and
drive systems for marine and industrial applications. Moreover,
Volvo's financial services operation provides complete solutions
for financing and service. In 2013, Volvo generated revenues of
SEK273 billion and an operating income of SEK7 billion.
=============
U K R A I N E
=============
VAB BANK: Moody's Cuts Local Currency Deposit Rating to 'Ca'
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded VAB Bank's local
currency deposit rating to Ca from Caa3 and the bank's National
Scale Rating (NSR) to Ca.ua from Caa3.ua. Concurrently, Moody's
placed all long term deposit ratings on review with direction
uncertain. The rating agency has also affirmed the standalone E
bank financial strength rating (BFSR), which is now equivalent to
a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of c (formerly ca). The short-
term deposit ratings of Not Prime are unaffected by the rating
action.
The rating action follows an announcement by the National Bank of
Ukraine (NBU) -- on November 20, 2014 -- that declared VAB Bank
insolvent and placed it under temporary (three months)
administration of the Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF).
Ratings Rationale
The downgrade of VAB Bank's long-term deposit rating to Ca and
the lowering of the standalone BCA to c was driven by VAB Bank's
insolvency and placement under temporary administration of DGF.
The rating action reflects the heightened risk of material losses
for VAB Bank's unsecured creditors, given the absence of
additional external capital and liquidity support.
According to the NBU, the shareholders of VAB Bank have submitted
a financial rehabilitation plan but failed to provide the
required financial support to the bank, which led to further
deterioration in its financial standing and violation of
prudential standards. In addition, the bank was rendered unable
to meet its obligations to depositors and other creditors in a
timely manner.
Rationale for Review
The rating agency says that the review on VAB Bank's deposit
ratings reflects uncertainty regarding the ultimate resolution
plan, which -- in accordance with the applicable law -- should be
approved by the DFG 30 days from the date of appointment of the
provisional administrator. The review, therefore, will focus on
the ultimate resolution scenario and the magnitude of losses for
uninsured depositors.
What Could Move the Ratings Up/Down
Moody's could further downgrade VAB Bank's Ca deposit ratings if
the review concludes that uninsured depositors are likely to
suffer losses that exceed 65% -- which would not be commensurate
with the Ca current range. At the same time, upward rating
pressure, or confirmation of the bank's deposit ratings is
possible if the authorities implement a restructuring plan that
restrains the imposition of losses to uninsured deposits.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Banks
published in July 2014.
Domiciled in Ukraine, VAB Bank reported total assets of UAH24
billion (US$1.85 billion) as of October 1, 2014 (in accordance
with unaudited local GAAP financials).
Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as
relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and
issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better
differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global
scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable
with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with
NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same
country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier
signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa.
For further information on Moody's approach to national scale
credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology
published in June 2014 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale
Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
BAKKAVOR: S&P Revises Outlook to Positive & Affirms 'B-' CCR
------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on
Bakkavor Finance 2 Plc. to positive from stable.
At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B-' long-term corporate
credit rating on Bakkavor.
In addition, S&P affirmed the 'B-' issue rating on the existing
GBP332 million senior secured notes and GBP150 million senior
secured notes issued by Bakkavor. The recovery rating on these
notes is '4', indicating S&P's expectation of average (30%-50%)
recovery in the event of a payment default.
The outlook revision reflects S&P's assumption that Bakkavor will
manage to keep up its momentum of improving operating
performance -- despite S&P's expectation that the trading
environment in 2015 will be tough -- such that it is able to
maintain EBITDA margins of more than 7% and adjusted EBITDA of
about GBP130 million for 2015. Under S&P's base case, this would
enable the company to service its fixed-charge obligations
corresponding to FFO cash interest coverage of more than 2.0x.
This would also enable them to maintain adequate headroom in
their covenants, specifically the interest coverage covenant.
S&P derives the 'B-' rating on Bakkavor from its anchor of 'b-',
which it bases on S&P's assessment of the company's "weak"
business risk profile and "highly leveraged" financial risk
profile. No modifiers impact the rating outcome.
The group's "highly leveraged" financial risk profile reflects
its expected Standard & Poor's-adjusted ratio of debt to EBITDA
of about 5.0x at Dec. 31, 2014. Bakkavor also used on-balance-
sheet cash to pay GBP25 million of bank debt in Sept. 2014.
Further, S&P projects that Bakkavor's FFO cash interest coverage
will be above 2.0x at Dec. 31, 2014.
"In our base-case scenario, we forecast that Bakkavor will be
able to maintain its EBITDA margin at more than 7% in 2014. We
forecast stable EBITDA margins due to the group's cost-
improvement measures, which include exiting a number of non-core
markets, such as its French, Spanish, and Czech businesses, and
closing its loss-making Canadian facility. Further, Bakkavor
also restructured its U.K. operations and sold its South African
Spring Valley Foods business in 2014. We believe that these
initiatives, along with the innovation of new products, will
continue to have a positive effect on the group's profitability.
Any future improvement in leverage would likely result from
higher profitability rather than from debt reduction, reflecting
the group's long-dated debt-maturity profile," S&P said.
"We view Bakkavor's business risk profile as "weak." This
reflects our view that the group is exposed to volatile input
prices and that it has limited pricing flexibility in the mature
U.K. market, which contributes about 95% of the group's EBITDA.
We also incorporate group-specific considerations into our
assessment of Bakkavor's "weak" business profile, including a
high level of operational gearing, which makes the group highly
sensitive to small declines in volumes and increases in the cost
base," S&P added.
Bakkavor is headquartered in the U.K., where it also has the
majority of its operations. S&P consequently assess Bakkavor's
country risk as "very low."
S&P's base-case operating scenario for Bakkavor assumes:
-- Low single-digit top-line growth in 2014 and 2015,
reflecting heavy private-label competition from other food
manufacturing contractors to the retail industry, and a
tough trading environment in the next 12-18 months because
of weak consumer confidence and the falling consumption of
ready-made meals, that should be offset by new product
launches.
-- An improving cost structure that will benefit the group
from 2014 onward.
-- An improvement in EBITDA to about GBP123 million in 2014
and about GBP135 million in 2015, reflecting the
aforementioned cost-improvement measures.
-- Capital expenditure (capex) of GBP40-GBP45 million in 2014
and 2015.
Based on these assumptions, S&P arrives at these credit measures:
-- An EBITDA margin in the range of 7.0%-8.0% in 2014 and
beyond.
-- Debt to EBITDA of about 5.0x in 2014 and 4.5x in 2015.
-- FFO cash interest coverage in the range of 2.6x-2.9x for
2014 and 2015.
The positive outlook reflects S&P's view that Bakkavor will
continue to improve its operating performance, including benefits
from cost-optimization projects, and grow its EBITDA close to
GBP135 million over the next 12-18 months, in line with S&P's
base case. S&P thinks Bakkavor has now a stabilized business
model, thanks to its improved cash-generating capacity.
S&P could raise the rating if Bakkavor establishes a track record
of maintaining its positive operating performance momentum in the
next 12-18 months, even if faced with challenging operating
environment, such that S&P sees a consistent improvement in the
company's business performance via improved EBITDA margins,
improving market share, and free cash flow generation. This
specifically translates to FFO cash interest coverage maintained
at about 2x on average over the next three years, along with more
than 15% headroom under its covenants, which would correspond to
"adequate" liquidity.
Conversely, S&P sees the potential for downside if the company's
liquidity becomes weaker due to reduced profitability and/or
restructuring costs, and if FFO cash interest coverage falls to
less than 1.5x. Moreover, increases in raw material costs within
a short time that the company cannot recover from, and
deterioration in the performance of its business could lead to
negative rating action.
BATHROOMS365: In Liquidation on "Changing Market Conditions"
------------------------------------------------------------
Insider Media Limited reports that Bathrooms365, a Bristol
bathroom retailer, has entered liquidation following a period of
"changing market conditions".
Simon Haskew and Neil Vinnicombe of business recovery specialist
Begbies Traynor have been appointed joint liquidators of
Bathrooms365 in Thornbury, according to Insider Media Limited.
The report notes that the company, which supplied bathrooms from
both a retail unit and via its website, ceased trading on
November 7, 2014, with the loss of six jobs.
The report relates that directors of the business, which was set
up in 1997, said the growth of internet-driven home delivery
services in the sector meant offering retail space had become an
unbearable cost burden.
They also cited changes in search engine ranking methods, causing
the business' online arm to "suddenly disappear" from first page
search results, the report relays.
"The factors that have caused the failure of this previously very
healthy business are sadly very much of their time, with the
internet market space disrupting traditional retail practices,"
the report quoted Mr. Haskew as saying.
"Whil[e] we regret the loss of jobs, particularly at this time of
year, our role now is to work with directors to ensure the value
of all assets is realized on behalf of the company's creditors,"
Mr. Haskew added.
CO-OPERATIVE BANK: Set to Fail Bank of England's Stress Test
------------------------------------------------------------
Huw Jones at Reuters reports that The Times newspaper said on
Dec. 1 Britain's Co-operative Bank is set to fail the Bank of
England's stress test of eight leading lenders this month.
The eight banks are being tested on their ability to withstand a
theoretical 35% crash in house prices and surging unemployment
and interest rates, with the central bank's Prudential Regulation
Authority due to announce the results on Dec. 16, Reuters
discloses.
According to Reuters, the newspaper said the Co-op bank is
thought to have acknowledged that it has insufficient buffers to
withstand a very severe recession, in spite of building GBP1.9
billion (US$2.97 billion) in extra capital in the past 12 months.
The bank nearly collapsed last year and fell under the control of
bondholders when a GBP1.5 billion capital shortfall was
identified shortly after the collapse of its attempt to buy 631
branches from rival Lloyds, Reuters recounts.
The Co-operative Bank is a retail and commercial bank in the
United Kingdom, with its headquarters in Balloon Street,
Manchester.
* * *
As reported by the Troubled Company Reporter-Europe on April 25,
2014, Moody's Investors Service downgraded by one notch to Caa2
the Co-Operative Bank Plc's senior unsecured debt and deposit
ratings, and maintained the negative outlook on the ratings. The
bank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) was
affirmed at E, which is equivalent to a baseline credit
assessment (BCA) of ca. The BFSR has a stable outlook.
GEMINI ECLIPSE 2006-3: Fitch Cuts Rating on Class A Notes to 'D'
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Gemini (Eclipse 2006-3) plc's class
A notes and affirmed the remaining classes, due July 2019, as:
GBP569.2 million class A (XS0273575107): downgraded to 'Dsf'
from 'CCsf'; assigned 'Csf'; Recovery Estimate (RE) RE25%
GBP27.8 million class B (XS0273576289): affirmed at 'Csf'; RE0%
GBP101.8 million class C (XS0273576446): affirmed at 'Csf'';
RE0%
GBP81.4 million class D (XS0273576792) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE0%
GBP70.2 million class E (XS0273576958): affirmed at 'Csf'; RE0%
The notes are secured against a GBP850.4 million interest-only
senior loan originated in November 2006 by Barclays Bank PLC
(A/Stable/F1). Combined with a GBP105.8 million junior loan, the
securitized loan is secured against a portfolio of 26 generally
secondary quality UK properties. The loans breached their LTV
covenants in July 2008 as a result of a downward revaluation of
the properties, and were subsequently transferred into special
servicing, where they have remained since. The last revaluation
of the collateral in Sept. 2014 reported a value of GBP282
million, and a senior LTV of 301.5%.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The downgrade of the class A notes reflects that GBP47.5 million
of the notes will be subordinated to the other classes of notes
as part of a wider restructuring completed in Sept. 2014. One
outcome of this renegotiation of the transaction documents is
that the liquidity facility has been granted structural seniority
in return for agreeing not to petition to initiate insolvency
proceedings against the issuer. As this was carried out in part
to avoid an issuer event of default, and will lead to a material
weakening in the terms and conditions of the class A notes, Fitch
considers this a distressed debt exchange. Accordingly, the
class A notes were downgraded to 'Dsf'.
Fitch has subsequently re-rated this class at 'Csf' to take into
account the new terms and conditions, and affirmed the other
classes. This reflects Fitch's view that payment default is
inevitable on all classes of notes.
The transaction is otherwise stable, and vacancy has decreased to
16.5% from 18.7%, with rental income sufficient to cover debt
service for two of the last three interest payment dates (IPDs).
Despite a partial termination of the hedging, which was heavily
"in the money" for the counterparty, significant senior-ranking
payment obligations remain outstanding. This leaves no prospect
of recovery for all but the class A notes, which are expected to
recover 25%.
Over the past year, two assets securing the loan have been sold,
for a combined price of GBP28.8 million. An average 55% premium
was achieved over the March 2013 valuation. The balance after
expenses was paid to the swap counterparty (as per a
restructuring agreement reached between the special servicer and
the swap provider in 2012) as partial termination of the senior
and junior loan hedging, both ranking senior to note interest and
principal.
As a result, the swap obligations have been reduced, with the
senior swap notional amount falling to GBP353.1 million from
GBP477.7 million, and the junior swap notional to GBP39.2 million
from GBP53.8 million. This in turn has reduced the outstanding
swaps' mark-to-market, which at the October 2014 IPD was
estimated at a still significant GBP91.5 million and GBP2.7
million, respectively. The senior swap obligations expire in
2026, 10 years after loan maturity. Any interest rate increase
will reduce, but is unlikely to wholly eliminate, the substantial
senior-ranking swap obligations. Current total liquidity
drawdowns amount to GBP40.8 million.
On a like-for-like basis, the portfolio's value has hardly
changed over the past 12 months (the valuation as at the last
rating action was GBP277 million vs GBP278.8 million at March
2014). While Fitch believes this assessment is conservative, at
least for some of the largest assets, the significant senior-
ranking obligations will severely depress distributions to
noteholders.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch estimates 'Bsf' notes recoveries of approximately GBP150
million. Given the depressed collateral value and significant
senior-ranking obligations, the ratings are highly unlikely to
see any improvement without a steep imminent increase in interest
rates.
GREAT HALL NO. 1: S&P Raises Rating on Class Ea Notes to 'B+'
-------------------------------------------------------------
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services took various credit rating
actions in Great Hall Mortgages No. 1 PLC's series 2006-1, series
2007-1, and series 2007-2.
Specifically, S&P has:
-- raised and removed from CreditWatch positive its ratings on
series 2006-1's class Ca and Cb notes, series 2007-1's
class Ca and Cb notes, and series 2007-2's class Ba notes;
-- raised its ratings on series 2006-1's class Da, Db, and Ea
notes, series 2007-1's class Ea notes, and series 2007-2's
class Ca, Cb, Da, and Db notes; and
-- affirmed its ratings on series 2006-1's class A2a, A2b, Ba,
and Bb notes, series 2007-1's class A2a, A2b, Ba, Bb, Da,
and Db notes, and series 2007-2's class Aa, Ab, Ac, Ea, and
Eb notes.
Series 2006-1, series 2007-1, and series 2007-2 are U.K.
residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions that
securitize buy-to-let and nonconforming mortgages originated by
Platform Funding Ltd.
On April 29, 2014, S&P raised to 'A' from 'A-' its long-term
issuer credit rating (ICR) on Danske Bank A/S. Consequently, on
May 14, 2014, S&P placed on CreditWatch positive its ratings on
series 2006-1's class Ca and Cb notes, series 2007-1's class Ca
and Cb notes, and series 2007-2's class Ba notes, where further
credit and cash flow analysis was required to ascertain if any
upgrades were warranted.
The rating actions follow S&P's credit and cash flow analysis of
the most recent transaction information that it has received.
Collateral performance has continued to improve since total
delinquencies peaked in March 2009 for all three series. The
reserve fund in each series is fully funded and credit
enhancement is increasing as each series is paying principal
sequentially.
The maximum potential ratings in these transactions is 'A', S&P's
long-term ICR on Danske Bank A/S acting as the guaranteed
investment contract (GIC) provider, as S&P do not view the
replacement framework for this agreement to be in line with its
current counterparty criteria. S&P has affirmed at 'A (sf)' all
of our ratings in these three transactions that were previously
capped at its long-term ICR on Danske Bank (series 2006-1's class
A2a, A2b, Ba, and Bb notes, series 2007-1's class A2a, A2b, Ba,
and Bb notes, and series 2007-2's class Aa, Ab, and Ac notes).
SERIES 2006-1
According to the Sept. 2014 investor report, total delinquencies
of greater than one month were 6.34%, down from their March 2009
peak of 18.86%. Seasoning is currently at 105 months. Under
S&P's criteria for U.K. residential mortgage-backed securities
(RMBS), seasoned loans that are not in arrears are associated
with a lower likelihood of foreclosure. The seasoning credit S&P
applies increases up to 120 months, so as seasoning has increased
there has been a positive effect in S&P's analysis.
S&P's weighted-average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) and weighted-
average loss severity (WALS) assumptions, and expected credit
coverage (CC) levels are below:
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) CC (%)
AAA 37.8 38.2 14.4
AA 28.5 31.5 9.0
A 22.0 20.6 4.5
BBB 16.2 14.4 2.3
BB 10.9 10.3 1.1
B 8.7 7.1 0.6
Based on S&P's overall lower expected credit coverage, an
increase in available credit enhancement for all classes of
notes, and S&P's cash flow results, S&P has raised its ratings on
all classes of notes in this transaction that were not previously
capped at 'A (sf)'.
SERIES 2007-1
According to the Sept. 2014 investor report, total delinquencies
of greater than one month were 7.99%, down from their March 2009
peak of 17.79%. Seasoning is currently at 100 months, and so S&P
give seasoning credit to all of the loans that are not in arrears
in its analysis.
S&P's WAFF and WALS assumptions, and expected CC levels are:
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) CC (%)
AAA 41.3 44.8 18.5
AA 31.2 38.4 12.0
A 24.1 27.8 6.7
BBB 17.7 21.6 3.8
BB 11.7 17.2 2.0
B 9.3 13.3 1.2
S&P has raised its ratings on the class C and E notes based on
its overall lower expected credit coverage, increases in
available credit enhancement, and S&P's cash flow results. S&P
has affirmed its ratings on the class D notes as the available
credit enhancement has not increased significantly in the
previous two years, due to low prepayments in the transaction.
SERIES 2007-2
According to the Sept. 2014 investor report, total delinquencies
of greater than one month were 8.26%, down from their March 2009
peak of 18.78%. Seasoning is currently at 94 months, and so S&P
give seasoning credit to all of the loans that are not in arrears
in its analysis.
S&P's WAFF, WALS assumptions, and expected CC levels are:
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) CC (%)
AAA 41.7 46.3 19.3
AA 31.8 39.9 12.7
A 24.7 29.4 7.3
BBB 18.2 23.2 4.2
BB 12.1 18.7 2.3
B 9.5 14.8 1.4
S&P has raised its ratings on the class B, C, and D notes based
on its overall lower expected credit coverage, increases in
available credit enhancement, and S&P's cash flow results. S&P
has affirmed its ratings on the class E notes as the available
credit enhancement and our cash flow results are commensurate
with the currently assigned rating.
According to S&P's credit stability analysis, the maximum
projected deterioration S&P would expect at each rating level for
time horizons of one year and three years, under moderate stress
conditions, is in line with S&P's credit stability criteria.
RATINGS LIST
Class Rating Rating
To From
Great Hall Mortgages No. 1 PLC
EUR280 Million and GBP275.2 Million Mortgage-Backed
Floating-Rate Notes Series 2006-1
Ratings Raised and Removed From CreditWatch Positive
Ca A (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Pos
Cb A (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Pos
Ratings Raised
Da BBB (sf) BBB- (sf)
Db BBB (sf) BBB- (sf)
Ea B+ (sf) B- (sf)
Ratings Affirmed
A2a A (sf)
A2b A (sf)
Ba A (sf)
Bb A (sf)
Great Hall Mortgages No. 1 PLC
EUR646.9 Million and GBP413.6 Million Mortgage-Backed
Floating-Rate Notes Series 2007-1
Ratings Raised and Removed From CreditWatch Positive
Ca A (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Pos
Cb A (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Pos
Rating Raised
Ea B B- (sf)
Ratings Affirmed
A2a A (sf)
A2b A (sf)
Ba A (sf)
Bb A (sf)
Da BB+ (sf)
Db BB+ (sf)
Great Hall Mortgages No. 1 PLC
EUR110.1 Million, GBP372.5 Million, and US$600 Million
Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Series 2007-2
Ratings Raised and Removed From CreditWatch Positive
Ba A (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Pos
Ratings Raised
Ca BBB+ (sf) BBB (sf)
Cb BBB+ (sf) BBB (sf)
Da BB (sf) BB- (sf)
Db BB (sf) BB- (sf)
Ratings Affirmed
Aa A (sf)
Ab A (sf)
Ac A (sf)
Ea B- (sf)
Eb B- (sf)
LONDON & REGIONAL: Moody's Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'B1'
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has taken actions on the following
classes of notes issued by London & Regional Debt Securitisation
No.2 plc.
Moody's rating action is as follows:
GBP190 million A Notes, Affirmed Baa1 (sf); previously on
Jan 16, 2014 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
GBP16 million B Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on
Jan 16, 2014 Confirmed at Ba2 (sf)
GBP50 million C Notes, Upgraded to B1 (sf); previously on
Jan 16, 2014 Confirmed at B3 (sf)
Ratings Rationale
The upgrade action on the Class B and C Notes is driven by the
higher than expected deleveraging of the transaction and the
extension of the loan after the borrower met the amortization
target at the October 2014 interest payment date.
Moody's note-to-value (NTV) ratios for the Class A, B, and C
Notes have improved to 56%, 63% and 83% from 70%, 76% and 94%
respectively in October 2013.The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of the
senior securitized loan has decreased to 83% from 94% in October
2013.
While the securitized debt has been amortized by GBP48 million,
the adjusted property portfolio value based on the external
valuation as of August 2013 has only reduced by GBP26 million,
indicating higher than expected proceeds from disposals and
additional sources of income such as excess cash sweep and equity
injections from the sponsor.
The amortization target was met at the October 2014 interest
payment date with the senior securitized debt being amortized to
GBP190 million, in line with the target. As a result, the loan
has been extended by a further year until October 2015.
The rating on the Class A Notes is affirmed as the current rating
level reflects the removal of the liquidity facility as part of
the restructuring. The lack of a liquidity facility increases the
risk of payment disruptions on the Notes since there is no longer
protection against temporary cash flow shortfalls.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's
Approach to Rating EMEA CMBS Transactions published in December
2013.
Other factors used in this rating are described in European CMBS:
2014-16 Central Scenarios, published in March 2014.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
The main factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
are (i) a decline in the property values backing the underlying
loan that is worse than Moody's expectation, leading to lower
recoveries on the securitized loan and (ii) an increase in the
refinancing risk assessment. Significant refinancing risk remains
in the transaction at the extended loan maturity date due to
uncertainty around the execution of the challenging business
plan. The next amortization target of a securitized debt below
GBP 115 million in October 2015 is challenging and the current
Moody's LTV for the whole loan is still high at 129%.
The main factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings are
(i) an increase in the property values as a combination of
improved market conditions and successful execution of the capex
plan described in the business plan and (ii) a further
deleveraging of the transaction. However, the upgrade potential
on the Class A Notes would remain limited due to the lack of a
liquidity facility.
Moody's Portfolio Analysis
London & Regional Debt Securitisation No. 2 plc closed in July
2006 and represents the securitization of one commercial mortgage
loan advanced to a borrower, which is part of the London &
Regional Group. The securitized loan is the senior portion of a
senior/ junior loan structure, of which the outstanding junior
balance is approximately GBP104.4 million.
The loan is currently secured by a portfolio of 19 properties
located throughout the UK. Occupancy rates are high and above 90%
on average according to the latest investor reporting dated
October 2014. However, occupancy rates range from lows of 0% on
the Brighton Leisure asset and 41% on the Basildon office
building to 100% on the Central London hotels.
The portfolio exhibits average concentration in terms of property
type with 37% of the portfolio (by underwriter's market value)
secured by hotel properties, 24% by leisure (mainly nightclubs
and casino) properties, 20% by office and the remaining 19% by
retail/mixed-use properties.
Approximately, 88% of the portfolio is located in the Greater
London area. Five properties have been sold since October 2013
and were mainly smaller leisure or office assets outside the
Greater London area. This explains the increased concentration in
the Greater London area of 88% compared to 82% and the reduced
exposure to leisure assets of 24% compared to 34%. The bigger
core assets located in central London remain in the portfolio,
which is a positive for the transaction.
TAGGART GROUP: Owners Begin Legal Battle With Ulster Bank
---------------------------------------------------------
Seamus Hasson at Mortgage Solutions reports that former Irish
property tycoons John and Michael Taggart have begun a multi-
million pound legal battle with the Ulster Bank at the High Court
in Belfast.
Mortgage Solutions, citing a report on the BBC Website, relates
that the brothers from Co Derry are suing the bank for alleged
negligence and improper conduct that they claim contributed to
the downfall of their business. They are seeking tens of
millions of pounds in compensation from the bank, according to
Mortgage Solutions.
The report relates that the Taggart Group was once one of
Northern Ireland's biggest companies with interests in the
Republic of Ireland and England. The court was told that their
property portfolio once extended to a Luxembourg shopping center
and luxury apartments in Florida and on the borders of Monte
Carlo, the report relays.
Following the property crash in 2007 the company eventually went
into administration in 2008, costing creditors hundreds of
millions of pounds, the report notes.
The report discloses that the brothers claimed that the bank
failed to warn them about concerns over the financial status of
their business at the time. They said that if they had been made
aware of the situation they would have acted and moved to sell
off assets which could have been sold to off-set loans, the
report says.
In a counter claim, Ulster Bank (part of RBS) has lodged writs
for GBP5 million and EUR4.3 million it alleges the brothers owe
in personal guarantees over land purchases in Kinsealy, north Co
Dublin, and in Northern Ireland, the report notes. The brothers
deny both claims.
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
* S&P Takes Various Rating Actions on European Synthetic Tranches
-----------------------------------------------------------------
After running its month-end SROC (synthetic rated
overcollateralization) figures, Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services took various credit rating actions on 26 European
synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches.
Specifically, S&P has:
-- Raised its ratings on four tranches;
-- Raised and removed from CreditWatch positive its ratings on
five tranches;
-- Placed on CreditWatch positive its ratings on nine
tranches; and
-- Affirmed its ratings on eight tranches.
The rating actions are part of S&P's regular monthly review of
European synthetic CDOs. The actions incorporate, among other
things, the effect of recent rating migration within reference
portfolios and recent credit events on corporate entities.
WHERE S&P HAS PLACED ITS RATINGS ON CREDITWATCH NEGATIVE
The SROC has fallen below 100% during the Oct. 2014 month-end
run. This indicates to S&P that the current credit enhancement
may not be sufficient to maintain the current tranche rating.
WHERE S&P HAS REMOVED ITS RATINGS FROM CREDITWATCH NEGATIVE
The SROC has risen above 100% during the Oct. 2014 month-end run.
This indicates to S&P that the current credit enhancement is
sufficient to maintain the current tranche rating.
WHERE S&P HAS PLACED ITS RATINGS ON CREDITWATCH POSITIVE
The tranche's current SROC exceeds 100%, which indicates to S&P
that the tranche's credit enhancement is greater than that
required to maintain the current rating. Additionally, S&P's
analysis indicates that the current SROC would be greater than
100% at a higher rating level than currently assigned.
WHERE S&P HAS LOWERED ITS RATINGS
S&P has run SROC for the current portfolio and has projected SROC
90 days into the future, while assuming no asset rating
migration.
S&P has lowered its ratings to the level at which SROC is above
or equal to 100%. However, if the SROC is below 100% at a
certain rating level but greater than 100% in the projected 90-
day run, S&P may leave the rating on CreditWatch negative at the
revised rating level.
WHERE S&P HAS RAISED ITS RATINGS
S&P has raised its ratings to the level at which SROC exceeds
100% and meets its minimum cushion requirement.
WHERE S&P HAS AFFIRMED ITS RATINGS
S&P has affirmed its ratings on those tranches for which credit
enhancement is, in S&P's opinion, still at a level commensurate
with their current ratings.
WHERE S&P HAS LOWERED ITS RATINGS TO 'CC'
S&P has lowered its ratings to 'CC' where losses in a portfolio
have already exceeded the available credit enhancement or where,
in S&P's opinion, it is highly likely that this will occur once
S&P know final valuations. S&P has done so as it considers that
it is highly likely that the noteholders will not receive their
full principal.
WHERE S&P HAS LOWERED ITS RATINGS TO 'D'
S&P has lowered its ratings to 'D' where it has received
confirmation that losses from credit events in the underlying
portfolio have exceeded the available credit enhancement and
partially reduced the notes principal amount. This means the
noteholders did not receive interest based on the full notional
of the notes.
ANALYSIS
For all of S&P's European synthetic CDO transactions, it applies
its corporate CDO criteria. Therefore, S&P has run its analysis
on CDO Evaluator model 6.3, which includes the top obligor and
industry test SROCs.
In addition to the obligor and industry tests, and the Monte
Carlo default simulation results, S&P may consider certain
factors such as credit stability and rating sensitivity to
modeling parameters when assigning ratings to CDO tranches. S&P
assess these factors case-by-case and may adjust the ratings to a
rating level that is different to that indicated by the
quantitative results alone.
WHAT IS SROC?
One of the main steps in S&P's rating analysis is the review of
the credit quality of the portfolio referenced assets. SROC is
one of the tools S&P uses when surveilling its ratings on
synthetic CDO tranches with reference portfolios.
SROC is a measure of the degree by which the credit enhancement
(or attachment point) of a tranche exceeds the stressed loss rate
assumed for a given rating scenario. SROC helps capture what S&P
considers to be the major influences on portfolio performance:
Credit events, asset rating migration, asset amortization, and
time to maturity. It is a comparable measure across different
tranches of the same rating.
* Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets
-----------------------------------------------
Total
Shareholders Total
Equity Assets
Company Ticker (US$MM) (US$MM)
------- ------ ------ ------
AA LTD 2968492Z LN -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/GBX EO -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/ LN -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/GBX EU -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/ IX -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/ EB -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AAAAL S1 -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC 1023859D SW -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC 2XA GR -1456621510 4737064769
AA PLC AA/ TQ -1456621510 4737064769
AARDVARK TMC LTD 1768297Z LN -1779177.627 149732584.7
ABBOTT MEAD VICK 648824Q LN -1685905.65 168264096.2
ABF GRAIN PRODUC 1276922Z LN -48465868.55 670357516.4
ACCIONA INMOBILI 4029797Z SM -49405609 1695566442
ACEROS PARA LA 1656Z SM -263940.0005 119468482.1
ACIS GROUP LTD 4159557Z LN -21335866.02 133912152.4
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*********
Monday's edition of the TCR delivers a list of indicative prices
for bond issues that reportedly trade well below par. Prices are
obtained by TCR editors from a variety of outside sources during
the prior week we think are reliable. Those sources may not,
however, be complete or accurate. The Monday Bond Pricing table
is compiled on the Friday prior to publication. Prices reported
are not intended to reflect actual trades. Prices for actual
trades are probably different. Our objective is to share
information, not make markets in publicly traded securities.
Nothing in the TCR constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or
sell any security of any kind. It is likely that some entity
affiliated with a TCR editor holds some position in the issuers'
public debt and equity securities about which we report.
Each Tuesday edition of the TCR contains a list of companies with
insolvent balance sheets whose shares trade higher than US$3 per
share in public markets. At first glance, this list may look
like the definitive compilation of stocks that are ideal to sell
short. Don't be fooled. Assets, for example, reported at
historical cost net of depreciation may understate the true value
of a firm's assets. A company may establish reserves on its
balance sheet for liabilities that may never materialize. The
prices at which equity securities trade in public market are
determined by more than a balance sheet solvency test.
Each Friday's edition of the TCR includes a review about a book
of interest to troubled company professionals. All titles are
available at your local bookstore or through Amazon.com. Go to
http://www.bankrupt.com/booksto order any title today.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Valerie U. Pascual, Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez,
Joy A. Agravante, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
The TCR Europe subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for
members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription
or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter Chapman at 215-945-7000 or Nina Novak at
202-362-8552.
* * * End of Transmission * * *