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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Tuesday, March 17, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 55

                           Headlines



A Z E R B A I J A N

SOUTHERN GAS: Fitch Affirms BB+ Rating on Sr. Unsec. Eurobonds


G E R M A N Y

[*] GERMANY: Bankruptcies Set to Rise for First Time This Year


I R E L A N D

TAURUS 2020-1: Fitch Assigns Final BB-sf Rating on Class E Notes
[*] IRELAND: To Face Wave of Examinerships Due to Covid-19 Crisis


I T A L Y

[*] ITALY: Month-Long Lockdown Designed to Save Economy


L U X E M B O U R G

AURIS LUXEMBOURG II: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B' on Delayed Deleveraging


N E T H E R L A N D S

DOMI BV 2020-1: S&P Assigns CCC (sf) Rating on Class X1-Dfrd Notes
IGNITION TOPCO: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR; Alters Outlook to Negative


N O R W A Y

NORWEGIAN AIR: Fall in Demand Due to Coronavirus to Hit Airline


P O L A N D

P4 SP: Fitch Withdraws BB LT IDR for Commercial Reasons


U K R A I N E

UKRAINE: S&P Affirms B/B Sovereign Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

CANADA SQUARE 2020-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating on Cl. E Notes
FINABLR: Shares Suspended from Trading, Likely to Go Bust
LAURA ASHLEY: Needs to Secure GBP15 Mil. of Emergency Cash
SURF INTERMEDIATE: S&P Assigns 'B-' ICR on Buyout By Thoma Bravo

                           - - - - -


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A Z E R B A I J A N
===================

SOUTHERN GAS: Fitch Affirms BB+ Rating on Sr. Unsec. Eurobonds
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Southern Gas Corridor CJSC's senior
unsecured Eurobonds' long-term foreign-currency rating at 'BB+'.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's unchanged view on SGC's USD2
billion Eurobonds maturing in 2026 fully guaranteed by the Republic
of Azerbaijan (BB+/Stable).

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating reflects the unconditional, unsubordinated and
irrevocable guarantee of full and timely repayment provided to
SGC's noteholders by the state. As a result, Fitch views the notes'
rating as equalised with Azerbaijan's Foreign-Currency IDR.

SGC is a special purpose company, established by presidential
decree in 2014 for consolidating, managing and financing the
state's interests in the development of Shah Deniz gas-condensate
field, the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline, implementation
of Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and Trans Adriatic
Pipeline projects.

SGC's notes are explicitly guaranteed by Azerbaijan, while the
noteholders can enforce their claims directly against the state
without being required to institute legal actions or proceedings
against SGC first. The guarantee is governed by English law and
would rank pari passu with all other unsecured external sovereign
debt. Historically, the reserves for the guarantee coverage were
appropriated in the annual state budgets for 2016-2019, and Fitch
expects continuity of this practice in 2020 onwards.

As most of the projects are already commissioned, SGC's total needs
for cash in 2020 (comprising debt service costs of USD225.7 million
and the reminder of the project costs of USD176.5 million) will be
fully covered by expected proceeds from the operations of Shah
Deniz, South Caucasus Pipeline and TANAP projects, along with
accumulated cash, according to management's forecast.

SGC's funding stems from a combination of USD6.5 billion debt and
USD2.4 billion equity injections from the state. SGC did not borrow
any new debt in 2019, while 38.5% of its debt stock as of end-2019
comprised bonds issued in favour of the State Oil Fund of the
Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), followed by IFI/IFI-backed loans
(30.9%) and Eurobonds (30.6%).

SGC acts as a financial vehicle and asset holding agent in the gas
export sector of Azerbaijan, hence it is tightly controlled by the
state. Azerbaijan ultimately owns 100% of the entity via a 51%
stake held by the Ministry of Economy and a 49% stake held by the
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR, BB+/Stable).

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The senior unsecured notes' rating is equalised with that of the
Republic of Azerbaijan. Accordingly, any changes in the sovereign
rating will be reflected in the notes' rating.

Furthermore, any sign of the Republic of Azerbaijan's intention to
non-honour or revoke the guarantee would be rating negative.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

The rating of SGC's notes is directly linked to the credit quality
of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the guarantee provider. A change in
Fitch's assessment of the credit quality of Azerbaijan would
automatically result in a change in the rating on the SGC's notes.
Any change in Fitch's view on the contract of guarantee, or
deterioration on the credit quality of the counterparties may
result in a downgrade of the notes.



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G E R M A N Y
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[*] GERMANY: Bankruptcies Set to Rise for First Time This Year
--------------------------------------------------------------
Rene Wagner at Reuters reports that the number of bankruptcies in
Germany is set to rise this year for the first time since the
financial crisis in 2009, the head of Germany's insolvency
administrators' association said, warning that government aid could
not protect all companies.

According to Reuters, Europe's largest economy is braced for a
difficult period as the pandemic spreads around the world, severing
supply chains and leading to collapsing demand for the exporting
powerhouse's goods.

"There will be a rise in insolvencies for the first time since
2009, and it will be a clear increase," Christoph Niering told
Reuters.  "I'm expecting a percentage rise in the double digits."

Insolvencies fell 2.9% to 18,749 in 2019, their lowest level since
1999, Reuters discloses.

Mr. Niering, as cited by Reuters, said that the impact would be
felt far beyond directly affected industries like tourism, and
would hit primarily companies that were already struggling.




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I R E L A N D
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TAURUS 2020-1: Fitch Assigns Final BB-sf Rating on Class E Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Taurus 2020-1 NL DAC's notes final
ratings.

RATING ACTIONS

Taurus 2020-1 NL DAC

Class A XS2128007163; LT AAAsf New Rating; previously AAA(EXP)sf

Class B XS2128007593; LT AA-sf New Rating; previously AA-(EXP)sf

Class C XS2128007759; LT A-sf New Rating;  previously A-(EXP)sf

Class D XS2128007916; LT BBBsf New Rating; previously BBB(EXP)sf

Class E XS2128008211; LT BB-sf New Rating; previously BB-(EXP)sf

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Taurus 2020-1 NL DAC finances 100% of a EUR653.3 million commercial
mortgage term loan advanced by Bank of America Merrill Lynch
International DAC (the originator) to entities related to
Blackstone Real Estate Partners.

Together with a senior capex loan and a mezzanine loan, the senior
term loan is secured on a EUR990.7 million portfolio of office and
industrial properties in the Netherlands. The originator is
retaining 5% of the issuer's liabilities in the form of an issuer
loan pari passu with the notes.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Improving Office Occupational Market: The properties are located
across the Netherlands, with a large proportion of Amsterdam
offices. Once hampered by chronic high structural vacancy (SV), the
office market in Amsterdam (and to a lesser extent across the
country) has seen a resurgence in recent years as the overhang of
office supply dating back decades - partly due to competition
between municipalities - has gradually diminished, thanks to
conversion and demolition. Fitch's base SV assumptions have lowered
in parallel.

Mixed Quality, Some Vacancy: The portfolio comprises 76 offices and
29 industrial properties. The portfolio has vacancy of about 16%,
concentrated in certain lower quality assets, which Fitch reflects
with weaker property scores and/or reduced estimated rental value.
Portfolio quality is fair to good, with some of the larger assets
(mainly Amsterdam offices) among the best, and many recently
refurbished. The valuer's reversionary yields are high - partly due
to under-occupancy - and in some cases Fitch has applied cap rates
higher than the guidance ranges.

Limited Adverse Selection Scope: Much of the portfolio is fairly
homogeneous in quality, although there is a range of tenants (none
contributing over 5.6% of passing rent). Scope for adverse
selection is presented by the pro-rata principal allocation,
although the 10 largest properties by market value have a release
premium (RP) of 10%. For the rest of the portfolio (initially with
5% RP), should the aggregate allocated loan amount of disposed
properties (including the 10 largest) exceed 15% of the original
loan balance, the RP rises to 10%.

Mezzanine Purchase Option: The mezzanine lender has an option to
purchase the senior loan that can endure after enforcement, which
(if not exercised) could act as a negative market signal as to the
value of the portfolio when it converges with the senior loan
balance. The rating of the most junior class of notes (class E) is
reduced by one notch from its breakeven, where Fitch does not
expect non-exercise to be viewed as a negative signal.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

KEY PROPERTY ASSUMPTIONS (all by market value)

'BBsf' weighted average (WA) cap rate: 8.5%

'BBsf' WA structural vacancy: 21.1%

'BBsf' WA rental value decline: 6.4%

'BBBsf' WA cap rate: 9.0%

'BBBsf' WA structural vacancy: 23.5%

'BBBsf' WA rental value decline: 9.2%

'Asf' WA cap rate: 9.4%

'Asf' WA structural vacancy: 25.9%

'Asf' WA rental value decline: 12.6%

'AAsf' WA cap rate: 9.9%

'AAsf' WA structural vacancy: 28.6%

'AAsf' WA rental value decline: 16.7%

'AAAsf' WA cap rate: 10.3%

'AAAsf' WA structural vacancy: 33%

'AAAsf' WA rental value decline: 20.9%

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The change in model output that would apply if the capitalisation
rate assumption for each property is increased by a relative amount
is as follows:

Current ratings: class A/B/C/D/E: AAAsf/AA-sf/A-sf/BBBsf/BB-sf

Increase capitalisation rates by 10%: class A/B/C/D/E: AA+ sf /A sf
/BBB sf /BB sf /B- sf

Increase capitalisation rates by 20%: class A/B/C/D/E: AA sf /A- sf
/BBB- sf /BB- sf /CCC sf

The change in model output that would apply if the rental value
decline (RVD) and vacancy assumption for each property is increased
by a relative amount is as follows:

Increase RVD and vacancy by 10%: class A/B/C/D/E: AA+ sf /A+ sf
/BBB+ sf /BB+ sf /B- sf

Increase RVD and vacancy by 20%: class A/B/C/D/E: AA sf /A sf /BBB
sf /BB sf /B- sf

The change in model output that would apply if the capitalisation
rate, RVD and vacancy assumptions for each property is increased by
a relative amount is as follows:

Increase in all factors by 10%: class A/B/C/D/E: AA sf /A- sf /BBB-
sf /BB- sf /B- sf

Increase in all factors by 20%: class A/B/C/D/E: A+ sf /BBB- sf
/BB- sf /B sf /CCC sf

[*] IRELAND: To Face Wave of Examinerships Due to Covid-19 Crisis
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Shawn Pogatchnik at Irish Independent reports that Ireland faces a
potential wave of examinerships as hotels, restaurants and others
are driven to the financial cliff-edge by a Covid-19 crisis that
could stretch into the summer.

Draft advice from the law firm Mason Hayes & Curran (MHC) -- seen
by the Irish Independent ahead of its circulation this week to more
than 3,000 clients -- says firms suffering from slumping sales and
bookings must prepare for this business disruption to run for
several months.

Alongside that warning, a survey completed on March 11 has found
that more than half of Dublin businesses are already recording
losses from the Covid-19 scare, Irish Independent discloses.

According to Irish Independent, Dublin Chamber found that firms in
retail, wholesale, accommodation and food services are taking the
biggest hit to sales.  Two in five of those losing trade reported
double-digit slumps in revenue, Irish Independent notes.

The MHC report warns firms they must consider the possibility of an
autumn return of Covid-19 infections, Irish Independent relays.

According to Irish Independent, the document, written by dispute
resolution partner Frank Flanagan, says: "If the current and
ongoing situation has an immediate effect on the business and its
cash flow, then the immunity from creditor action that is offered
by examinership may be attractive."

Mr. Flanagan, as cited by Irish Independent, said the Government's
launch late on March 10 of emergency financial supports for firms
hit by Covid-19 cancellations and customer drop-offs offered one
route for many firms to avoid examinership or insolvency, either
through voluntary liquidation or receivership.  New aid avenues
include low-interest loans of up to EUR1.5 million each via the
Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland, and a EUR200 million fund
for rescues and restructuring, Irish Independent discloses.

While struggling businesses should make Government-backed finance a
top priority, Mr. Flanagan said, some of the firm's clients are
already seeking legal advice on potential examinership, Irish
Independent relays.  He said these included "significant clients"
in the hospitality and transportation sectors, Irish Independent
notes.

According to Irish Independent, when asked what scale of
virus-driven examinerships could be in the pipeline, he said:
"We're talking hundreds of businesses.  We're talking a lot of
hotels. People don't want to be in the company of other people at
the moment. Restaurants and hotels have some of the worst exposure.
Airlines are in a difficult place too."

Mr. Flanagan said firms considering examinership would be wise to
use this option initially as a "negotiating backstop" when dealing
with creditors seeking payment, Irish Independent relays.

Should those pre-legal negotiations fail, he said timing an
examinership application could be critical -- because Covid-19
could undercut business for several months, according to Irish
Independent.




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I T A L Y
=========

[*] ITALY: Month-Long Lockdown Designed to Save Economy
-------------------------------------------------------
AFP reports that Italy said March 9 its month-long lockdown of
northern regions responsible for 40% of overall production was
designed to save the rest of the economy from falling victim to the
new coronavirus.

Italian leaders had been watching in anguish as COVID-19 kept
killing dozens of people daily in areas around the tourist hotspot
Venice and the financial capital Milan, AFP relates.

The toll shot up by 97 on Monday, March 9, to 463 -- the most
outside China itself, AFP discloses.

According to AFP, the government had by then decided to ring-fence
more than 15 million people who live in the industrial heartland of
Lombardy and surrounding areas until April 3.

Italy's economy and finance ministry openly conceded March 9 that
an effective quarantine of the northern quarter of the population
would deliver a short-term shock, AFP notes.

But it also argued that this was the bitter pill Italy had to
swallow for its economy to survive, AFP states.

"A temporary downturn in some sectors or areas of the country is
preferable to a longer crisis that could spread to the whole
economy via demand and supply effects," AFP quotes the ministry as
saying in a statement.

Italy, AFP says, is preparing a EUR7.5-billion (US$8.6-billion)
package aimed at helping out the devastated tourism industry and
other sectors especially hard-hit by disruptions in global supply
chains.

"Support measures will be adequate to the difficult circumstances
and aimed at preventing lasting damage to the supply side of the
Italian economy and permanent employment losses," the economy and
finance ministry, as cited by AFP, said.

Yet some analysts doubt that cash injections can help an economy
suffering from the consequences of a global epidemic, AFP notes.

According to AFP, the economy and finance ministry admitted that
its measures will "particularly impact sectors tied to transport,
lodging, food and drink, entertainment and social life".

The government is shutting down bars and museums nationwide in an
effort to limit crowds, AFP discloses.

The government expanded that list to include ski resorts in the
Italian Alps on March 9, AFP relays.




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L U X E M B O U R G
===================

AURIS LUXEMBOURG II: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B' on Delayed Deleveraging
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on
Auris Luxembourg II S.a.r.l. (WS Audiology) to 'B' from 'B+'.

WS Audiology's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage is unlikely to
decrease below 7x by 2021 because profitability will remain
negatively affected by ongoing restructuring costs and investments,
an unfavorable portfolio mix, and macroeconomic headwinds this
year.

Following the completion of the Sivantos and Widex merger in March
2019, WS Audiology's financial debt surpassed EUR3.7 billion. S&P
said, "We believe, in the context of projected lower EBITDA and
FOCF, this further prolongs deleveraging and weakens the debt cash
flow payback ratios compared with our previous base-case scenario.
Under our updated base case, we project that S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted leverage will remain at 9.0x-9.5x in 2020, and
only gradually reduce to 8.0x-8.5x in 2021, which is well-above our
previous estimate of below 7x by 2021. Furthermore, we continue to
believe execution risks are meaningful, given headwinds both
external (COVID-19 pandemic) and internal (loss of some accounts).
We note that the COVID-19 pandemic is not affecting the group's
supply chain, since it has no core production in China." However,
it may have a negative effect on demand, considering the retail
channel is facing a slowdown in Asia and Europe, and the same could
happen in the U.S.

S&P has determined several main reasons for the company's
slower-than-originally-anticipated deleveraging.

These include:

-- S&P said, "Pressure on the top line experienced in 2019, which
we think will persist during first-half 2020. This was due to the
lower wholesale run-rate from the loss of the Costco private label
contract in the U.S. and a lower run-rate in the U.S. retail
business, caused by internal information technology (IT) issues and
rechargeable technology product portfolio issues. We anticipate
revenue will pick up in second-half 2020 and increase further into
2021, supported by continued uptake of the recently launched Signia
Xperience platform, robust performance of TruHearing and Audibene,
and the launch of Widex's new hearing aid Moment."

-- S&P anticipates profitability pressure will only start easing
from 2021. The lower margins stem from increasing contributions
from managed-care-focused TruHearing, which has lower margins than
the rest of the group, a lower average sales prices mix because of
the loss of key U.S. accounts, as well as ongoing restructuring
costs to deliver long-term operating efficiencies improvements, and
investments to support new product launches and developments. From
2021, operating margins should start benefiting from efficiency
improvements and restructuring initiatives, and the revenue and
sales mix from new higher-price product launches.

-- FOCF will likely remain flat in 2020 before returning to
positive territory in 2021. In 2020 we assume FOCF will still be
affected by mergers costs of about EUR50 million and pressure on
working capital to support product lunches. These costs should
start reducing in 2021.

-- S&P continues to view positively that the company operates in
an industry with strong growth fundamentals and has a track record
of successfully launching and commercializing innovative products.

The market for hearing aids has a projected compound annual growth
rate of 4%-6% over the next two years, spurred by the expanding
addressable elderly population and rising penetration rates as
improving technical and appearance parameters improve acceptance
and user comfort. However, the increasing power of retailers, due
to rapid consolidation, is pressuring prices. The company is
investing heavily into innovation. In 2020 two new platforms will
be its main growth engines. Sivantos' Signia Xperience features own
voice processing technology, but with improved sound perception
quality through smart decisions relating to voice recognition and
motion sensors. The other big launch is Widex's first-ever
lithium-ion powered rechargeable hearing aid Movement, which is
building on the success of the smart hearing technology used in
Widex Evoke and new sound processing features. Despite recurring
and significant merger and restructuring costs, the company remains
focused on innovation and invests about 5% of revenue in research
and development (R&D).

The negative outlook reflects the increased risk that WS Audiology
would not be able to achieve S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to
EBITDA close to 8x by 2021. S&P said, "We estimate that
improvements in profitability will be conditional on fast and
successful uptake of newly launched products and delivery of
synergies from operating efficiencies and integration of the two
companies. In our base case, we forecast leverage of 9.0x-9.5x in
2020, since we assume organic revenue growth will be negatively
affected by the effects of the Malware attack experienced in
October 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic in the first part of the year."
The ratio is expected to improve to about 8.0x in 2021 thanks to
higher organic revenue growth and a gradual increase in operating
margin, supported by the more benign economic environment, uptake
of new products, and benefits from the restructuring plan. Under
this scenario, FOCF is expected to be lower than historically--flat
in 2020 but returning to positive territory in 2021.

S&P said, "We would consider lowering the ratings if
weaker-than-expected performance reduces WS Audiology's
deleveraging prospects and its ability to achieve adjusted debt to
EBITDA of about 8.0x and positive FOCF by year-end 2021, in line
with our base case. The most likely cause would be the inability to
gain market share with key accounts as newly launched products fail
to gain tractions with customers, or if envisaged operating
efficiencies do not fully materialize while the company continues
to incur costs.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if WS Audiology deleverages
faster than expected and debt to EBITDA declines sustainably below
8x. This could happen if the announced measures improve growth and
profitability and negative effects in first-half 2020 are offset by
good performances in the second half that is accelerated in 2021."




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N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

DOMI BV 2020-1: S&P Assigns CCC (sf) Rating on Class X1-Dfrd Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned credit ratings to Domi 2020-1 B.V.'s
mortgage-backed floating-rate class A, B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, and
E-Dfrd notes. S&P also assigned its credit rating to the class
X1-Dfrd notes, which are not collateralized. At closing, Domi
2020-1 also issued unrated class F-Dfrd, X2-Dfrd, and Z notes.

Domi 2020-1 is a static RMBS transaction that securitizes a
portfolio of EUR318.28 million buy-to-let mortgage loans secured on
properties in The Netherlands. The loans in the pool were
originated by Domivest B.V. between 2018 and 2020. While the
majority of properties in the pool are residential, 4.3% are
partially for commercial use as well as residential.

At closing, the issuer used the issuance proceeds to purchase the
full beneficial interest in the mortgage loans from the seller. The
issuer granted security over all of its assets in favor of the
security trustee.

S&P considers the collateral performance to be strong as evidenced
by the absence of loans in arrears in the securitized pool. That
said, the originator has a limited track record.

Credit enhancement for the rated notes consists of subordination
from the closing date, and excess spread. The transaction features
a general reserve fund to provide liquidity in the transaction.

There are no rating constraints in the transaction under our
counterparty, operational risk, or structured finance sovereign
risk criteria. S&P considers the issuer to be bankruptcy remote.

S&P said, "Our ratings address the timely payment of interest and
the ultimate payment of principal on the class A notes and the
ultimate payment of interest and principal on the other rated
notes.

"Our ratings on the class A to E-Dfrd notes reflect the passing
credit and cash flow stresses. Our rating on the class X1-Dfrd
notes reflects the application of our 'CCC' criteria. Considering
its junior position in the payment structure and no available
credit enhancement, this class is currently vulnerable to
nonpayment, and it is dependent upon favorable business, financial,
and economic conditions to repay the ultimate interest and
principal. This is commensurate with a 'CCC' rating category as per
our criteria. Given that the class fails a 'B' stress in a few but
not all scenarios, we have assigned a 'CCC (sf)' rating to the
class X1-Dfrd notes."

  Ratings List

  Class     Rating*     Class amount (EUR mil.)
  A         AAA (sf)    281.68
  B-Dfrd    AA+ (sf)    15.91
  C-Dfrd    AA (sf)     7.96
  D-Dfrd    A+ (sf)     4.78
  E-Dfrd    BBB (sf)    4.77
  F-Dfrd    NR          3.18
  X1-Dfrd   CCC (sf)    14.32
  X2-Dfrd   NR          4.78
  Z         NR          N/A

*S&P's ratings address timely receipt of interest and ultimate
repayment of principal on the class A notes, and the ultimate
payment of interest and principal on the other rated notes.

NR--Not rated.


IGNITION TOPCO: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR; Alters Outlook to Negative
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service affirmed the B2 corporate family rating
of Ignition Topco BV and the B2-PD probability of default rating
(PDR). Moody's also affirmed the B2 rating for the EUR325 million
backed senior secured term loan B and the EUR50 million backed
senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF) borrowed by Ignition
Midco BV. The outlook on both entities was changed to negative from
stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's has changed the outlook to negative to reflect the
weakening operating performance that has resulted in
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of EUR56.3 million in 2019 and lead
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to increase to 6.0x. At the same
time Ignition has maintained EBITDA margins in excess of 20% and
generated free cash flow of EUR10.8 million (Moody's-adjusted)
which supports the affirmation of ratings at the B2 level.

The operating weakness in 2019 was a result of supply shortages in
the first half, destocking of customers in the second half, a price
normalization as well as lower demand such as in the US where sales
were 29% lower than in 2018. Ignition also claims that competitors
have been infringing patents it holds allowing to undercut prices
for higher-margin products. Consequently, total revenue was down by
3% and reached EUR260.2 million, while EBITDA reduced by 6% to
reach EUR58.0 million, in line with the June 2018 projection.
Although management expects to recuperate its volume losses over
the course of 2020, the impact on price will still represent a
significant headwind. Moody's is therefore expecting a further
decline of EBITDA to EUR55.2 million and FCF around the break-even
level, resulting in debt/EBITDA of 6.6x in 2020. In addition, the
current economic environment related to the coronavirus and the
fact that a significant portion of Ignition's production capacity
is based in Italy adds to uncertainty about the company's operating
performance in 2020.

Ignition's liquidity is solid. At the end of 2019 the company held
cash and equivalents of EUR43.4 million and generated a FCF of
EUR10.8 million. FCF generation in 2020 will be constrained by the
Anqing/China investment programme in addition to maintenance capex
of around EUR7.0 million, or 2.5% of 2020 sales. Management expects
Anqing-related capital spending of EUR27.5 million, but has noted
that the board is re-assessing the scope of the programme, which
could result in lower spending in Anqing. The company continues to
have access to a EUR50 million revolving credit facility that is
split equally between a working capital and a capex line.

The company is controlled by funds managed by Astorg, which, as is
often the case in private equity sponsored deals, have a higher
tolerance for leverage and governance is comparatively less
transparent.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP / DOWN

The ratings could be upgraded if (1) debt/EBITDA dropped to below
4.5x; and (2) absent any debt-funded, transforming acquisitions or
material shareholder remuneration.

Moody's could downgrade ratings if (1) debt/EBITDA were to be above
5.5x; (2) EBITDA margins dropped significantly from levels of 20%;
and (3) if FCF turned consistently negative.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Chemical
Industry published in March 2020.

COMPANY PROFILE

Ignition Topco BV is the parent company of operating companies that
trade under the name IGM Resins (IGM), with head offices in
Waalwijk/The Netherlands. Ignition is a leading supplier of UV
curing materials. These products are high-value add
photoinitiators, acrylates and are used for a variety of coating
applications for wood and paper, plastic, electronics, 3D printing
and optical products. Ignition also sells specialty intermediates.
The company in 2019 generated revenues of EUR260.2 million and had
a company-adjusted EBITDA of EUR58.0 million, or an EBITDA margin
of 22.3%.



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N O R W A Y
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NORWEGIAN AIR: Fall in Demand Due to Coronavirus to Hit Airline
---------------------------------------------------------------
Richard Milne at The Financial Times reports that Norwegian Air
Shuttle has stumbled from crisis to crisis in recent years.  But
the coronavirus-inspired fall in demand is the most serious test
yet for Europe's third-largest low-cost airline, the FT says.

According to the FT, Norwegian is especially exposed due to its
high debt burden incurred through a decade of breakneck expansion.


Analysts are increasingly worried that it could breach its bond
covenants or simply run out of cash, the FT discloses.

Norwegian's net debt has increased steadily from NOK22 billion
(US$2.3 billion) in 2017 to NOK58 billion at the end of last year
-- in large part due to accounting rule changes on leases -- just
as its equity market capitalization has plunged to NOK1.8 billion,
the FT states.

Norwegian, like almost all carriers, is taking drastic action, the
FT relays. On March 10, it announced 3,000 flight cancellations --
or about 15% of its capacity between mid-March and mid-June -- and
warned staff in an internal note "to be prepared for a scenario
where we reduce capacity by up to 50%", the FT recounts.

Analysts at ABG forecast that the airline's net cash of NOK3
billion -- compared with revenues of NOK43.5 billion last year --
could shrink to just NOK880 million by the end of June, the FT
relays.

Many speculate that Norwegian will need to tap shareholders for the
fourth time since March 2018, the FT states.  According to the FT,
ABG analysts estimated that Norwegian could have to raise up to
NOK3 billion, close to double its current market value, to avoid
facing the same worries next year.

But raising capital during such a crisis is far from
straightforward, the FT notes.  

"It's possible that launching a rights issue in the current
environment wouldn't work," the FT quote Andrew Lobbenberg at HSBC
as saying.




===========
P O L A N D
===========

P4 SP: Fitch Withdraws BB LT IDR for Commercial Reasons
-------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised P4 S.p. Z.o.o's Outlook to Positive from
Stable while affirming the Polish telecoms group's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating at 'BB'. Fitch has subsequently withdrawn the
ratings for commercial reasons.

The Positive Outlook reflects an improving leverage profile and
increasing network ownership. Some uncertainty is associated with
the outcome of the 5G spectrum auction expected in 2020, associated
5G-related capex, as well as evolving competitive intensity with an
increasing focus on fixed-mobile convergence.

P4 is a Polish mobile-only telecom operator. Its ratings take into
account its sound position in a competitive but largely rational
market and solid cash flow generation, as well as limited
geographical and product diversification.

The ratings were withdrawn for commercial reasons.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Robust Operating Cash Flow: P4's solid operating cash flow
generation is supported by a continued growth of services revenue
and improved profitability. Pre-IFRS16 EBITDA margin recovered to a
sound 31.5% in 2019, following a weakening to 28.7% in 2018 caused
by the EU Roam-Like-At-Home regulation. Increase in profitability
was driven mainly by a decline in national roaming expenses on
continued network roll-out and renegotiations of national roaming
contracts with other operators. Fitch envisages that EBITDA margin
will remain broadly at 2019 levels over the next three years.

Intensifying Competition: The Polish mobile market consists of four
major mobile network operators (MNOs) and dozens of mobile virtual
network operators (MVNOs). Although P4 was able to retain its
strong market position in 2019, it now shares its mobile market
leadership in subscribers with Orange. The competitive environment
in Poland has intensified over the last few years with higher
marketing activity from some MNOs, MVNOs increasing their market
share, and more recently an increasing focus on fixed-mobile
convergent services. At the same time, Fitch views market
competition as rational given the absence of heavy discounts
provided by operators.

Network Roll-out Near Completion: P4 has made considerable progress
in its network roll-out, increasing the number of its own mobile
sites by 27% since 2017. At end-2019, its 4G network covered around
99% of Poland's population. This has allowed P4 to reduce its
reliance on other MNOs' networks and to significantly reduce
national roaming costs. In the next two years it plans to continue
expanding its network coverage, with the aim to have its own
independent network by end-2021.

Moderate Leverage: P4's funds from operations (FFO)-adjusted net
leverage (pre-IFRS 16) improved to 3.3x at end-2019 from 3.6x a
year earlier, underpinned by solid free cash flow (FCF) generation.
Fitch expects the planned 5G spectrum auction and continued network
investment to increase P4's leverage in 2020. It is likely that
FFO-adjusted net leverage in 2020-2022 would remain below its
positive rating sensitivity of 3.7x provided EBITDA is not
negatively impacted by competitive pressures and spectrum and 5G
investments do not erode FCF generation.

5G Spectrum Auction: Auctions for the sale of spectrum in the
valuable 3,480-3,800 MHz band should take place later this year.
Fitch does not expect the outcome to be as costly for operators as
in Germany or Italy. The Polish regulator recently announced that
four nationwide frequency licenses in the 3,600 MHz band up for
auction will be split into four equal blocks of 80 MHz each with
each participant being able to obtain one frequency license and a
starting price of PLN 450million for each of the four licenses.
However, some uncertainty remains over the final auction outcome
and 5G-related capex.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

P4 compares favourably with a peer group that includes smaller,
single-country telecom operators such as Telefonica Deutschland
Holding AG (BBB/Stable), Sunrise Communications Holdings S.A.
(BB+/Stable), eircom Holdings (Ireland) Limited (B+/Stable), as
well as the leveraged cable sector. Compared with its peer group,
P4 exhibits solid operating metrics and strong financials -
particularly in revenue growth and underlying cash flow strength.
Its business exhibits a deleveraging capacity that is not present
in many of its telecom peers and is more similar to its cable
sector peers in this regard.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Low-single-digit revenue growth in 2020-2022.

  - Fitch-defined EBITDA margin (pre-IFRS16) at around 31% in
2020-2022

  - Capex (excluding spectrum) at around 13%-14% of revenue per
year until 2022

  - Cash taxes averaging PLN230 million per year in 2020-2022

  - Annual dividend payments at around 2019 levels in 2020-2022

  - No significant M&A up to 2022

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Not applicable due to rating withdrawal.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Adequate Liquidity: P4 has a sufficient liquidity in the short-term
with cash and cash equivalents of PLN294 million at end-2019, an
undrawn revolving credit facility of PLN400 million that matures in
2023 and four overdraft credit facilities totaling PLN200 million
with various maturities during 2020. This should be enough to cover
PLN192 million of debt maturing in 2020 and PLN300 million maturing
in 2021, as well as Fitch-estimated negative pre-dividend FCF of
around PLN120 million in 2020.

A significant bullet payment of around PLN3.7 billion is expected
in 2022. Refinancing exposure is mitigated by moderate leverage at
end-2019 and some flexibility in dividend payments.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



=============
U K R A I N E
=============

UKRAINE: S&P Affirms B/B Sovereign Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
On March 13, 2020, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its global scale
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings on Ukraine
at 'B' and its Ukraine national scale ratings at 'uaA'. S&P also
affirmed the short-term ratings at 'B'. The outlook is stable.

Outlook

The stable outlook balances the risks to Ukraine's commodity-driven
economy from the deteriorating external environment and
uncertainties around potential policy shifts following the
appointment of a new cabinet, against the country's stronger
external buffers and improving government debt dynamics.

S&P could consider a positive rating action over the next year if
the government makes progress on its reform agenda while preserving
earlier achievements, including the independence of the National
Bank of Ukraine (NBU)--both the monetary authority and financial
system regulator. S&P considers this critical to the government
maintaining access to official and commercial financing at
reasonable rates. The rating could also benefit should Ukraine's
external liquidity outperform our projections.

On the other hand, S&P could lower the rating if disruptions to
funding from concessional programs or capital markets over the next
year call into question Ukraine's ability to meet large
FX-denominated repayments. Such disruptions could happen if the
government were to backtrack on key reforms.

Rationale

The ratings on Ukraine are constrained by its low per capita income
and challenging institutional and political environment.

Stronger macroeconomic management--evidenced by lower inflation and
public deficits, the improving profile of government debt, and
higher FX reserves--support our sovereign ratings on Ukraine. The
ratings are also supported by Ukraine's ongoing implementation of
reforms, which helps the government access commercial debt markets
and receive concessional funding from international financial
institutions (IFIs). In S&P's view, the quality and predictability
of monetary policy and financial sector supervision at the NBU,
even in the face of occasional political pressures, is a noteworthy
and highly positive development.

Institutional and Economic Profile: While government reforms over
the past half-decade have improved macroeconomic outcomes,
relations with concessional creditors remain critical amid external
uncertainties

-- The coronavirus outbreak represents an important downside
risk--both directly and via its effects on the demand for and
prices of Ukraine's key export commodities.

-- Nonresident inflows into the domestic bond market are sensitive
to shifts in external financing conditions and any potential
backtracking by authorities on matters such as the NBU's
independence.

-- The implications of a recent government reshuffle for Ukraine's
reform momentum and relationship with key creditors is uncertain.

Amid a slowdown in reform momentum, a fall in popularity, and
rising factionalism within his "Servant of the People"
parliamentary party, President Zelensky has reshuffled his cabinet.
The previous prime minister, finance minister, and the minister for
economy and agriculture have been dismissed. It is too early to
reach any conclusion as to what the reshuffle implies for economic
policy and Ukraine's relations with its creditors. The new prime
minister, Mr. Denys Shmygal, has called for a revision to the 2020
budget to increase social spending.

Meanwhile, IMF board approval for a new $5.5 billion three-year
program is unlikely until parliament passes legislation related to
land reform and--more importantly--to strengthen the bank
resolution framework. The implementation of the latter would make
it harder for PrivatBank--which was nationalized in 2016 at a cost
of 6% of GDP--to be returned to its previous owners in the event of
a court ruling to that effect.

Ukraine's parliament (the Rada) has introduced more than 4,000
amendments to the land reform bill. The proposed law has proven
controversial and may ultimately be passed in a diluted form. The
issue of foreign ownership of agricultural land is likely to be put
to a referendum in the future. Even then, the potential lifting of
the long-standing moratorium on the sale of agricultural land would
be a momentous step in raising the sector's productivity.

Market access on better terms has allowed the government to issue
longer-dated bonds at lower yields in both local and foreign
currencies. Even so, we believe that maintaining cordial relations
with official lenders such as the IMF remains valuable: it
underlines the authorities' reform intent and shapes investor
perception, ultimately influencing the government's ability to
issue commercially at a reasonable cost. This is particularly the
case amid volatile global markets and waning external demand.
Moreover, we believe that nonresident inflows into the domestic
bond market are sensitive to shifts in external financing
conditions and any potential backtracking by authorities on matters
such as the NBU's independence.

Ukraine's relations with Russia are tenuous. Despite recent
prisoner swaps and the presidents of both countries engaging in
Normandy-format talks, each side's position on Donbass in Eastern
Ukraine makes a near-term resolution appear remote. While there
have been efforts to de-escalate tensions, ceasefire violations and
fatalities in the region continue. S&P notes that Ukraine's defense
outlay constitutes about one-fifth of the government's budget.

Real GDP expanded by an estimated 3.3% last year, spurred by
domestic demand. High real wages growth continued to stoke
consumption. Being still heavily reliant on commodities, Ukraine's
economy is vulnerable to a slowdown in global growth. Coronavirus
represents an important downside risk both directly and via its
effects on the demand for and prices of Ukraine's key export
commodities.

S&P said, "Over 2020-2023, we project real GDP growth of 3% on
average. In our view, Ukraine would have to attract more investment
flows from abroad for a more meaningful and sustained pick-up in
growth. In this context, the current government's legislative
efforts to effect land reform could lift growth over our current
projections as could improvements in the business environment. We
note investment is just 19% of GDP, down from the peak of 30% in
2007 prior to the global financial crisis. Another factor
inhibiting economic growth is weak banking sector lending,
particularly to the corporate sector." From 2014 to 2019, real
credit growth to the private sector contracted cumulatively by
80%.

Flexibility and Performance Profile: While Ukraine's FX reserves
are at a record high, the external financing environment has
deteriorated

-- Ukraine's current account receipts are highly susceptible to
fluctuations in commodity prices.

-- The larger presence of nonresidents invested in Ukrainian
hryvnia-denominated domestic bonds can, in an adverse scenario,
magnify pressures on the exchange rate.

-- The NBU has lifted numerous capital controls, improved
financial stability, and brought inflation much closer to its
target.

The Clearstream link to Ukraine's domestic bond market in 2019,
coupled with high real interest rates, caused a surge in foreign
participation in hryvnia-denominated government securities.
Government FX-denominated debt has reduced to about 60% from about
two-thirds previously. The government has also been able to issue
internationally in FX at lower rates and longer maturities. S&P
views positively the creation of a debt management office and
legislation enabling the government to pre-finance upcoming
redemptions.

2020 is another heavy year for government repayments with
FX-denominated debt service of $6.7 billion (nearly 4% of estimated
2020 GDP). S&P said, "Of this, we expect the $3 billion of domestic
bonds to be fully rolled over. We anticipate the government will
finance the rest via a mix of commercial and official borrowing,
including proceeds from the EUR1.25 billion Eurobond issued in
January."

Nonresidents now hold about one-quarter of domestically issued
hryvnia-denominated domestic bonds, excluding NBU holdings. An
exodus of these investors from their holdings could magnify
pressures on the exchange rate in an adverse scenario. Moreover,
Ukraine's current account receipts, while growing by double-digits
annually over the past three years, are highly susceptible to
fluctuations in commodity prices. In 2019, the current account
deficit benefited from favorable terms of trade, continued
remittance inflows, and a 1.8% of GDP settlement from Gazprom to
Naftogaz.

Strong domestic demand will push the current account deficit up
toward 4% of GDP through 2023, requiring substantial financing from
abroad. We expect the majority of these financing flows will be
debt-creating. The proportion of net direct investment in financing
Ukraine's recurrent external deficits has been declining since
2016. The NBU estimates that round-tripping (where capital leaves
the country and then is reinvested in the form of foreign direct
investment [FDI]) accounted for 20.6% of FDI inflows in 2018. An
important medium-term risk related to the transit of Russian gas
via Ukraine has abated with a deal reached in December. Volumes
transiting via Ukraine on to Europe will decline, however, from
about 2% of GDP in 2019 to 1% in 2020 and to below 1% in
2021-2024.

S&P views Ukraine's external buffers against balance of payments
risks as having strengthened. The NBU's FX reserves have been
increasing since 2015 via borrowings and outright FX purchases. In
2019, the NBU took advantage of the appreciating hryvnia and
purchased nearly $8 billion. FX reserves stood at nearly $27
billion at the end of February. Moreover, the proportion of NBU own
reserves has increased to nearly 65% of overall FX reserves from
about 45% in 2015. We project that the NBU's FX reserves (net of
required reserves commercial banks are required to maintain with
the NBU on their FX liabilities) will cover about three months of
current account payments on average through 2023. The NBU
intervenes to avoid excessive volatility and to augment reserves.

Since its independence, the NBU has successfully pursued its
inflation-targeting mandate and improved financial stability. Since
2016, it has gradually brought inflation under control. In 2019,
the hryvnia's appreciation and lower oil and food prices hastened
convergence to its 5% inflation target.

The NBU has also dismantled numerous capital controls in place
since 2016 and pushed through reforms to strengthen financial
stability in its role as a supervisor. The banking sector has
returned to profitability and nonperforming loans (NPLs) are
well-provisioned and declining. Credit growth in real terms,
however, is still rather weak. From July 2020, the NBU will also
have greater regulatory powers over the nonbank financial sector.

S&P said, "In line with our expectation of Ukraine's continued
engagement with IFIs, we project that the general government
deficit will stay within 2.3% of GDP through our forecast horizon."
The 2020 budget could be revised higher to increase spending
following the appointment of the new cabinet. Defense expenditure
makes up about one-fifth of the total budget and pensions 15%.
Dividends from state-owned enterprises, in particular Naftogaz, and
the NBU in recent years, have been important contributors to
budgetary revenue. A convergence of prices charged to end-consumers
with market prices has eliminated quasi-fiscal deficits at
Naftogaz, aiding fiscal consolidation since 2014 when the general
government deficit was 10.3%.

General government debt to GDP is on a solid downward path as a
result of Ukraine's lower fiscal deficits and strong nominal GDP
growth. The appreciation of the hryvnia in 2018 and 2019 further
helped government debt metrics. In line with S&P's macroeconomic
and fiscal projections, it forecasts that government debt will
decline through 2023. The forecast remains highly sensitive to
future exchange rate developments given the still-large proportion
of FX-denominated debt in the overall government debt stock.

GDP warrants issued by the government in 2015 represent a
contingent fiscal risk; that said, S&P projects potential payouts
through 2023 will be relatively contained. The warrants pay out two
years after a year in which real GDP growth exceeds 3%; the payout
increases if growth exceeds 4%.

There is a residual risk for Ukraine's government balance sheet
from the 2013 $3 billion Eurobond, which was not restructured and
is held by Russia. In the event of an adverse court ruling and
Ukraine's refusal to pay in full, legal or technical constraints on
Ukraine's commercial debt service to other creditors could
potentially apply.

The Ukrainian banking sector returned to profitability in 2018.
Although net consumer loans grew by 30% in 2019--albeit off a low
base--corporate loan portfolios continue to decline through write
offs of NPLs and limited new lending. At 48%, banks' NPLs are high
but falling and are almost fully provisioned. State-owned banks
comprise nearly half of the system's NPLs. In particular PrivatBank
has NPLs amounting to 78% of its loan portfolio because of legacy
related-party lending prior to being nationalized. The government's
strategy for these banks includes the appointment of independent
supervisory boards, and a gradual clean-up and eventual
part-privatization of at least two of the four, Oschadbank and
PrivatBank. With reforms at all four state-owned banks
progressing--albeit at a slower pace at Ukreximbank and
Oschadbank—S&P does not expect any additional recapitalization
needs from the central government over the next year.

In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.

After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.

The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Ratings Score Snapshot above.

The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.

  Ratings List
  Ratings Affirmed

  Ukraine
   Sovereign Credit Rating                B/Stable/B
   Ukraine National Scale                 uaA/--/--
   Transfer & Convertibility Assessment   B
   Senior Unsecured                       B
   Senior Unsecured                       D




===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

CANADA SQUARE 2020-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating on Cl. E Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service assigned provisional credit ratings to
the following Notes to be issued by Canada Square Funding 2020-1
PLC:

GBP []M Class A Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)

GBP []M Class B Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)

GBP []M Class C Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)A3 (sf)

GBP []M Class D Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)

GBP []M Class E Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)B2 (sf)

GBP []M Class X Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due [Dec 2056],
Assigned (P)Caa3 (sf)

The GBP []M VRR Loan Note due Dec 2056, the Class S1 Certificate,
the Class S2 Certificate and the Class Y Certificate have not been
rated by Moody's.

The Notes are backed by a pool of UK buy-to-let mortgage loans
originated by Fleet Mortgages Limited (NR), Topaz Finance Limited
(NR) and Landbay Partners Limited (NR). The pool was acquired by
Citibank N.A., London Branch (Aa3/(P)P-1 & Aa3(cr)/P-1(cr)) from:
(1) Hart Funding Limited following its purchase from Fleet for
Fleet-originated loans, (2) Zephyr Funding Limited following its
purchase from Topaz for Topaz -originated loans and (3) Broadway
Funding Limited following its purchase from Landbay for
Landbay-originated loans. The securitised portfolio consists of
[1,089] mortgage loans with a current balance of GBP [261.2]
million as of February 1, 2020. The VRR Loan Note is a risk
retention Note which receives 5% of all available receipts, while
the remaining Notes and Certificates receive 95% of the available
receipts on a pari-passu basis.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings of the Notes are based on an analysis of the
characteristics and credit quality of the underlying buy-to-let
mortgage pool, sector wide and originator specific performance
data, protection provided by credit enhancement, the roles of
external counterparties and the structural features of the
transaction.

MILAN CE for this pool is [13.0]% and the expected loss is [2.0]%.

The portfolio's expected loss is [2.0]%, which is in line with
other UK BTL RMBS transactions owing to: (i) the performance of
comparable originators; (ii) the current macroeconomic environment
in the UK; (iii) some historical track record, evidencing good
performance for the Fleet portion of the pool; and (iv)
benchmarking with similar UK BTL transactions.

MILAN CE for this pool is [13.0]%, which is in line with other UK
BTL RMBS transactions, owing to: (i) the WA current LTV for the
pool of [71.28]%; (ii) top 20 borrowers constituting [10.1]% of the
pool; (iii) static nature of the pool; (iv) the fact that [97.4]%
of the pool are interest-only loans; (v) the share of self-employed
borrowers of [32.0]%, and legal entities of [43.9]%; (vi) the
presence of [19.6]% of HMO and MUB loans in the pool; and (vii)
benchmarking with similar UK BTL transactions.

At closing, the transaction benefits from a fully funded,
amortising liquidity reserve fund that equals [1.5]% of 100/95 of
the outstanding Class A Notes with a floor of [1.00]% of 100/95
prior to and no floor post the step-up date in [March 2025]
supporting the Class S1 Certificate, Class S2 Certificate and Class
A Notes. The release amounts from the liquidity reserve fund will
flow through the revenue waterfall prior to and through the
principal waterfall post the step-up date. There is no general
reserve fund.

Operational Risk Analysis: Fleet, Topaz and Landbay are the
servicers in the transaction whilst Citibank N.A., London Branch,
will be acting as the cash manager. In order to mitigate the
operational risk, CSC Capital Markets UK Limited (NR) will act as
back-up servicer facilitator. To ensure payment continuity over the
transaction's lifetime, the transaction documentation incorporates
estimation language whereby the cash manager can use the three most
recent servicer reports available to determine the cash allocation
in case no servicer report is available. The transaction also
benefits from approx. 2 quarters of liquidity for Class A based on
Moody's calculations. Finally, there is principal to pay interest
as an additional source of liquidity for the Classes A to E (if
relevant tranches PDL does not exceed 10%, unless it is the most
senior class of Notes outstanding).

Interest Rate Risk Analysis: [96.45]% of the loans in the pool are
fixed rate loans reverting to three months LIBOR with the remaining
portion linked to three months LIBOR. The Notes are floating rate
securities with reference to daily SONIA. To mitigate the
fixed-floating mismatch between fixed-rate assets and floating
liabilities, there will be a scheduled notional fixed-floating
interest rate swap provided by Citibank Europe plc
(Aa3(cr)/P-1(cr)).

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in
July 2019.

The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of
ratings for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less
relevant or typically remain unchanged during the surveillance
stage.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Significantly different actual losses compared with its
expectations at close due to either a change in economic conditions
from its central scenario forecast or idiosyncratic performance
factors would lead to rating actions. For instance, should economic
conditions be worse than forecast, the higher defaults and loss
severities resulting from a greater unemployment, worsening
household affordability and a weaker housing market could result in
a downgrade of the ratings. Deleveraging of the capital structure
or conversely a deterioration in the Notes available credit
enhancement could result in an upgrade or a downgrade of the
ratings, respectively.

FINABLR: Shares Suspended from Trading, Likely to Go Bust
---------------------------------------------------------
Michael O'Dwyer at The Telegraph reports that shares in currency
exchange firm Finablr were suspended from trading on March 16 after
the company revealed US$100 million (GBP81 million) of previously
undisclosed cheques and raised the possibility that the business
could go bust.

In an announcement rushed out after trading opened on March 16,
Finablr said its liquidity problems had worsened since last week
and that it could no longer provide some of its payment processing
services, The Telegraph relates.

According to The Telegraph, it also said its board had been
informed of cheques dating from before its flotation last year --
believed to total about US$100 million -- written by the company as
security for financing arrangements for the benefit of third
parties.

"The existence of these cheques has only recently been brought to
the attention of the board and urgent investigations are ongoing,"
The Telegraph quotes the company as saying.



LAURA ASHLEY: Needs to Secure GBP15 Mil. of Emergency Cash
----------------------------------------------------------
Simon Foy at The Telegraph reports that Laura Ashley could go bust
if it does not secure GBP15 million of emergency cash by the end of
the month, casting doubt over the future of 2,700 jobs.

According to The Telegraph, the retailer, known for its floral
curtains and wallpaper, said it was in advanced talks with a
third-party lender, but it warned it would have to "consider its
options" if it does not get the cash by the end of the month.

The shares fell 46pc to 0.7p, valuing the company at just GBP5.1
million, The Telegraph discloses.

The business also said two of its non-executive directors,
Professor Jane Rapley and Leon Yee, had quit, The Telegraph notes.
This leaves it with just one other non-executive on the board, The
Telegraph states.

Private equity firm Hilco, the previous owner of music chain HMV,
is understood to be the lender in discussions with Laura Ashley,
The Telegraph says.



SURF INTERMEDIATE: S&P Assigns 'B-' ICR on Buyout By Thoma Bravo
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigns its 'B-' long-termed issuer credit
rating on Surf Intermediate I Ltd. (Sophos), and assigned its 'B-'
rating on the proposed $125 million first-lien senior secured
revolving credit facility (RCF), and the $1,530 million first-lien
senior secured term loans.

On March 2, 2020, Thoma Bravo completed its acquisition of Sophos
in a cash transaction that values Sophos at approximately $3.9
billion. As part of the Thoma Bravo acquisition, Sophos issued:

-- A $1,530 million first-lien senior secured term loan (including
a EUR300 million tranche);

-- A $420 million second-lien senior secured term loan; and

-- About $2.3 billion of common equity.

The proceeds were used to fund the buyout and refinance all
outstanding debt issued by Sophos' current holding company, Sophos
Group PLC.

Sophos has a highly leveraged capital structure, above 10x S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted debt to cash-based EBITDA and breakeven
FOCF, pro forma full-year interest expense. The 'B-' rating on the
new holding company, Surf Intermediate I Ltd., reflects the highly
leveraged capital structure but favorable growth prospects in the
business-to-business (B2B) cyber security segment. S&P said,
"Following the closing of the transaction, we expect about 10x
adjusted debt to cash-based EBITDA in FY2020, falling to 8.5x-9.0x
in FY2021. We also expect limited FOCF generation of about 3%-4% of
adjusted debt in FY2020, reducing to about 2%-3% in FY2021. The
proposed capital structure will expose Sophos to U.S. dollar
interest-rate hikes that could significantly weigh on FOCF
generation. We estimate that a 1.5%-2.5% rise in U.S. dollar
interest rates could lead to breakeven FOCF in FY2021. We expect
adjusted cash-based EBITDA interest coverage of about 1.5x (pro
forma full-year interest expense) in FY2020, and 1.5x-2x in
FY2021."

Ownership by a financial sponsor with a track record of aggressive
financial policy limits the potential for leverage reduction over
the medium term. S&P said, "Our rating on Sophos is also
constrained because its ownership by financial sponsors with a
proven appetite for acquisitions as part of the ownership strategy
could make it less likely to reduce debt in the medium term. We see
an ongoing risk that Sophos could undertake debt-funded shareholder
remuneration or acquisitions."

S&P expects high cash conversion on the back of long-term contracts
paid upfront and low capital expenditure (capex). Sophos benefits
from long-term contracts with a weighted-average duration of about
28 months, predominantly paid up front. As a result, the company
has positive working capital cycle forecast at $45 million-$50
million in FY2020 and $60 million-$65 million in FY2021 on the back
of 6%-10% billing growth. Sophos also benefits from low cash taxes,
estimated at $20 million-$25 million, and low capex of 2.0%-2.5% of
annual billings.

Sophos' limited scale and market share compared with global
cybersecurity peers' is balanced by favorable mid-market growth
prospects and good geographic diversity. Sophos mainly competes in
the fragmented B2B mid-market segments with low switching costs,
which limits its pricing power. About 90% of Sophos' revenue comes
from companies with fewer than 5,000 workers. The company also
considerably lags in market share and scale compared with the
global leaders in the B2B segment, McAfee and Broadcom.
Nevertheless, these weaknesses are somewhat offset by good B2B
mid-market growth prospects relative to the consumer segment, which
is in secular decline due to lower PC sales, increasing consumption
of web and digital content on mobile devices, and the proliferation
of free or "freemium" consumer security software such as Avast. On
the other hand, more businesses of all sizes are becoming targets
of cyber attacks, encouraging spending on IT security. This market
segment is currently underserved by dominant global players, which
to some extant protects Sophos' competitive position. Furthermore,
the company's focus on the mid-market segment means its customer
base is very well diversified, with no customers accounting for a
meaningful portion of total revenue. S&P also believes that Sophos'
business is supported by good geographic diversity, with no single
country accounting for more than one- third of revenue. In FY2019,
the company generated 51% of total revenue in Europe, Middle East,
and Africa and 36% from the Americas (the majority of which was
from the U.S.), with the balance coming from the Asia-Pacific
region.

High research and development (R&D) spending and a reliance on
sales partner networks leads to below-average profitability
compared with peers, although we expect operating efficiency to
improve if the cost-cutting measures are taken by Thoma Bravo.
Sophos has historically spent about 20% of annual revenue on R&D
and about 35% on sales and marketing. As a result, the company's
adjusted cash-based EBITDA margins were historically at 20%-25%,
significantly lower than other software-as-a-service peers such as
Avast, IRIS, and Adavanced with adjusted margins above 35%. Sophos
relies on a global network of more than 53,000 channel partners as
part of its go-to-market strategy. S&P said, "Nevertheless, we
expect gradual improvement in operating efficiency under Thoma
Bravo ownership. We estimate that potential savings could
contribute to gradual adjusted cash-based EBITDA margin expansion
of 6%-8% over the next five years."

The company's wide cyber security product offering and R&D
capabilities enable high customer retention and an increasing share
of wallet. Sophos has a proven track record of successful new
product launches and high customer retention of about 106% in
FY2019 on a net value basis, reflecting upselling and cross-selling
that more than offset customer losses. This was clearly
demonstrated in 2018 when Sophos released new endpoint platform,
Intercept X, which greatly contributed to annual billing growth of
about 22%. The company's share of next-generation billing increased
to 53% in the 12 months to Sept. 30, 2019, from 2% in FY2015. S&P
believes that Sophos' wide array of next-generation products and
cloud-based management platform, Sophos Central, will enable it to
maintain high customer retention, increase wallet share, and win
new clients over the medium term. Currently, only about 12% of
existing customers use both endpoint and network solutions,
reflecting untapped cross-selling opportunities.

High recurring revenue and long-term contract duration lead to good
revenue viability, which supports the rating. Sophos also benefits
from high revenue visibility, 85% being subscription-based. We
believe that solid growth in cloud-based next generation products
will enable Sophos to further increase the share of subscription
revenue. Revenue visibility is also supported by long-term contract
duration, of about 28 months. However, the majority of these
contracts being paid upfront also leads to rises and falls in
annual billings. This was demonstrated in FY2019 when billing
declined by about 1%, mostly due to strong growth in the previous
year.

S&P said, "The stable outlook indicates that we expect Sophos'
billings to increase organically by 6%-10%, and its adjusted
cash-based EBITDA margins to increase to 26%-27% on potential cost
initiatives. This should enable it to reduce its adjusted debt to
cash-based EBITDA during FY2021 to 8.5x-9.0x, and generate reported
FOCF of $45 million-$55 million.

"We could lower the rating if Sophos were to experience high and
prolonged customer churn, leading to breakeven FOCF before
exceptional costs and adjusted cash-based EBITDA interest coverage
falling closer to 1x, which would make the proposed capital
structure unsustainable."

This could happen if competition intensified and there were severe
macroeconomic headwinds, or if Sophos does not increase adjusted
cash-based EBITDA margins above 24%.

S&P said, "We see an upgrade as unlikely over the next 12 months,
due to our expectation that the company's private-equity ownership
will limit any significant reduction in debt. We could raise the
rating over the longer term if Sophos reduces adjusted debt to
cash-based EBITDA to less than 7.5x, increases FOCF to debt above
5%, and increases adjusted cash-based EBITDA interest coverage
above 2x on a sustainable basis."

This could happen if Sophos successfully executes potential
cost-cutting initiatives, leading to adjusted cash-based EBITDA
exceeding 30%, supported by a clear financial policy of maintaining
adjusted cash-based leverage below 7.5x.



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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

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