/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/240209.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Friday, February 9, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 30
Headlines
F I N L A N D
AMER SPORTS: Moody's Rates New $600MM Senior Secured Notes 'B1'
AMER SPORTS: S&P Rates New $600MM Senior Secured Notes 'BB'
F R A N C E
EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3, Outlook Negative
OPTIMUS BIDCO: Moody's Rates First Lien Loan Add-on 'B3'
OPTIMUS BIDCO: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
I R E L A N D
CVC CORDATUS: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating to EUR5.8MM Cl. F Notes
MADISON PARK X: Moody's Affirms B2 Rating on EUR12.15MM F Notes
I T A L Y
MILIONE SPA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba1' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
L U X E M B O U R G
MILLICOM INT'L: Moody's Lowers CFR to Ba2 & Unsecured Debt to Ba3
SUMMER BC BIDCO: Moody's Rates $650MM Senior Secured Term Loan 'B2'
S W E D E N
SBB: Creditor Commences Legal Proceedings for Debt Recovery
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
A1 COMMS: Goes Into Administration
AI SILK: Moody's Assigns 'B3' CFR, Outlook Stable
AI SILK: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable
ARDONAGH GROUP: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable
LERNEN BONDCO: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Additional Liquidity
OLLIE QUINN: Enters Administration, Owes More Than GBP4.8MM
SIGNET UK: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
TEAM REDLINE: Goes Into Administration
VENTILATION CENTRE: Falls Into Administration
WINCANTON DIGITAL: Enters Administration, Owes Around GBP120,000
X X X X X X X X
[*] BOOK REVIEW: TAKING CHARGE: Management Guide to Troubled
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F I N L A N D
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AMER SPORTS: Moody's Rates New $600MM Senior Secured Notes 'B1'
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Moody's Investors Service has assigned a B1 rating to Amer Sports
Company's proposed new $600 million backed senior secured notes due
2031. All other ratings of Amer Sports Holding 1 Oy (Amer Sports or
the company) are unaffected, including the B2 long term corporate
family rating, the B2-PD probability of default rating and the B2
backed senior secured ratings on Amer Sports Holding Oy's existing
EUR1,700 million backed senior secured term loan B (TLB) due March
2026 and on the existing EUR315 million backed senior secured
revolving credit facility (RCF) due September 2025, which remain on
review for upgrade. Moody's expects that it will withdraw the
ratings on the existing debt instruments once they are repaid.
Amer Sports plans to utilize Amer Sports Company's notes proceeds
to complete the repayment of Amer Sports Holding Oy's existing
EUR1,700 million TLB.
The B1 rating for the proposed new senior secured notes is based on
the expectation that Amer Sport's CFR will be upgraded to B1 once
the refinancing transactions are closed under the currently
expected terms. The rating agency assumes that Amer Sports will
successfully complete the refinancing at a manageable interest
cost, and in line with the proposed terms and conditions.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Based on the company's pro-forma capital structure under the
proposed terms and conditions, Moody's will likely upgrade Amer
Sports' CFR to B1 from B2 and its probability of default rating
(PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD, upon completion of the refinancing, in
line with the assigned instrument ratings.
Although the refinancing is leverage neutral, Moody's anticipates
further de-leveraging in the next 12-18 months as the company's
retail expansion strategy in China and the US, together with still
supportive consumer demand, will continue to drive earnings
growth.
The refinancing of the outstanding bank debt, if successfully
completed at a sustainable cost of debt, will be credit positive
because it will extend Amer Sports' debt maturity profile, with the
maturity wall pushed by five and seven years, from September 2025
and March 2026, respectively. Following the refinancing, Amer
Sports will also increase significantly the availability of its
committed external liquidity sources, which is positive.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
Before Amer Sport's and Amer Sports Holding Oy's ratings were
placed on review, Moody's stated that:
Positive pressure on the ratings could materialise over time if the
company executes successfully on its retail expansion plan, such
that (1) its Moody's adjusted gross debt to EBITDA ratio moves
towards 5.0x, (2) its free cash flow generation is consistently
positive, and (3) it maintains a solid liquidity profile.
Negative pressure on the ratings could materialize if the company's
operating performance weakens or it engages in large debt-financed
acquisitions that lead to an increase in Moody's-adjusted gross
debt to EBITDA above 6.5x, while its Moody's-adjusted EBIT to
interest ratio drops below 1.2x. Negative pressure would also build
up in case of a deterioration in the company's liquidity profile,
as a result of sustained negative free cash flow generation or
reduced capacity under its financial covenant.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Consumer Durables
published in September 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Amer Sports is a global sporting goods company, with sales in more
than 100 countries across EMEA, the Americas and APAC. Focused on
outdoor sports, its product offering includes apparel, footwear,
winter sports equipment and other sports accessories. Amer Sports
owns a portfolio of globally recognised brands such as Arc'teryx
Salomon, Wilson, Peak Performance and Atomic, encompassing a broad
range of sports, including alpine skiing, running, tennis,
baseball, American football, hiking and golf. In the last twelve
months ended September 2023, Amer Sports generated revenue of $4.3
billion (2022: $3.5 billion) and company-adjusted EBITDA, that is,
excluding non-recurring items and IFRS 16 impact, of $537 million
(2022: $380 million).
AMER SPORTS: S&P Rates New $600MM Senior Secured Notes 'BB'
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S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB' issue rating and '3' recovery
rating to the $600 million proposed senior secured notes, due 2031,
to be issued by Amer Sports Company--subsidiary of sportswear and
sports equipment company Amer Sports Inc. (BB/Stable/--). The '3'
recovery rating indicates its expectation of meaningful recovery
expectations in the event of default (50%-70%; rounded estimate:
60%).
The issue and recovery ratings on the proposed notes are based on
preliminary information and subject to their successful issuance
and S&P's satisfactory review of the final documentation.
S&P said, "Our 'BB' issuer credit rating and stable rating outlook
on Amer Sports Inc. (the listed company and ultimate parent of the
group) are unchanged. We expect Amer Sports will use the cash
proceeds from the proposed notes, along with the net cash proceeds
of the proposed term loan B (TLB) of about EUR1.2 billion
equivalent maturing 2031, to refinance its existing EUR1.7 billion
TLB, due 2026, and pay related transaction fees."
Issue Ratings--Recovery Analysis
Key analytical factors
-- The senior secured debt (the new TLB, including $600 million
and EUR600 million, and the proposed senior secured notes both due
2031) are rated 'BB' with a '3' recovery rating.
-- The '3' recovery rating indicates S&P's expectation of
meaningful recovery (50%-70%; rounded estimate: 60%) in the event
of default.
-- The capital structure also includes a new proposed $800 million
revolving credit facility (RCF; not rated), that matures in 2029.
-- All the senior secured debt instruments (including the RCF,
TLB, and senior secured notes) have equal and ratable security over
the collateral and rank pari passu in the event of enforcement.
-- Recovery prospects are supported by S&P's valuation of the
business as a going concern and material guarantor coverage tested
at 80% of consolidated EBITDA. S&P values the company as a going
concern given its diverse portfolio of well-known brands.
-- In S&P's hypothetical default scenario, default risk may arise
from intensified competition, reduced consumer spending, and
execution issues in the implementation of the group's strategy,
which would ultimately lead to margin and cash flow erosion.
Simulated default assumptions
-- Year of default: 2029
-- Jurisdiction: U.S.
-- Emergence EBITDA (after recovery adjustments): EUR270 million
-- Multiple: 6.5x
Simplified waterfall
-- Gross recovery value: EUR1,757 million
-- Net recovery value after administrative expenses (5%): EUR1,669
million
-- Value available to first-lien debt: EUR1,523 million*
-- Estimated first-lien debt claims: EUR2,432 million*
-- Recovery prospects: 50%-70% (rounded estimate: 60%)
-- Recovery rating: 3
*All debt amounts include six months of prepetition interest.
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F R A N C E
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EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3, Outlook Negative
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Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 the
long-term corporate family rating and to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD the
probability of default rating of Eutelsat Communications SA
("Eutelsat" or "the company"), a leading satellite operator.
Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 the ratings on
the senior unsecured debt instruments issued by its main operating
subsidiary Eutelsat SA, including the EUR800 million and EUR600
million notes maturing in October 2025 and July 2027, respectively.
The outlook for both entities remains negative.
The rating action follows Eutelsat's trading update published on
January 29, 2024 [1] in which the company lowered its 2024 adjusted
EBITDA guidance to EUR650 million - EUR680 million from EUR725
million - EUR825 million, and suspended its financial objectives
for 2025 until FY24 results, including an expected adjusted EBITDA
of EUR900 million - EUR1.1 billion. The downward revision in
forecasts is caused by the fact that the LEO activities of OneWeb
are running behind schedule relative to the original roadmap,
resulting from delays in some ground stations. The expected
recovery in consolidated EBITDA and credit metrics has been
postponed by roughly one year. This is partially offset by the
steady performance in Eutelsat's legacy business which the company
guided to return to positive revenue growth, mainly driven by the
entry into service of new satellites.
"The downgrade to Ba3 reflects the deterioration in the combined
group's credit metrics beyond Moody's previous expectations, in
light of the slower-than-expected contribution from OneWeb," says
Ernesto Bisagno, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
and lead analyst for Eutelsat.
"The negative outlook takes into account the ongoing execution risk
from the merger, the combined entity's sustained negative free cash
flow generation over 2024-27 as a result of OneWeb's planned Gen-2
capex, and its weakened liquidity profile, given significant
refinancing needs in 2025 at a time when interest rates are high,"
adds Mr Bisagno.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action reflects the deterioration in consolidated credit
metrics beyond previous expectations, owing to the downward
revision in EBITDA for 2024, with the group's Moody's adjusted debt
to EBITDA ratio likely to remain above 4.25x - the maximum leverage
threshold for the previous Ba2 rating category - for a longer than
expected period of time.
The group revised its 2024 EBITDA guidance because the OneWeb
operations are running behind expectations, mostly reflecting
delays in the availability of the ground network, as well as a
revenue mix more oriented towards the sale of user terminals, which
impacts margins. The revised guidance highlights the ongoing
execution risk associated with the merger, especially in relation
to Eutelsat's capacity to expand OneWeb's operations, a factor that
is key for reaching EBITDA breakeven at OneWeb and to support a
recovery in consolidated EBITDA.
While the company suspended the previously communicated financial
targets for 2025, it said it continues to anticipate an
acceleration in revenues and continue to target double-digit CAGR
in revenues and Adjusted EBITDA between 2024 and 2028.
This profit warning in a relatively short period of time following
the completion of the merger shows not only the execution risks
associated to the combination, but also the reduced visibility in
terms of future operating performance and a weaker track record in
meeting forecasts. This is a governance consideration (Management
Credibility and Track Record) under Moody's General Principles for
Assessing Environmental, Social and Governance Risks Methodology
for assessing ESG risks, and as a result, Moody's has changed the
management credibility and track record score to 3 from 2, leaving
the overall Governance Issuer Profile Score (IPS) unchanged at
G-3.
Moody's expects the combined entity's Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA
ratio (calculated as gross debt) will remain high at around 5.2x in
2024, in line with 2023, and only decline towards 4.7x by 2026,
driven by higher EBITDA. The company remains committed to its 3x
net reported leverage target over the medium term. However, FCF
will remain negative over 2024-27 because of the significant
expected increase in capital spending related to OneWeb's planned
Gen-2 constellation.
LIQUIDITY
The profit warning has impacted Eutelsat's liquidity given the
reduction in covenant headroom. At June 2023, liquidity was
underpinned by cash and cash equivalents of around EUR482 million.
Eutelsat maintained access to committed bank facilities of EUR850
million (fully undrawn), of which EUR200 million will mature in
June 2027 and the rest in September 2025. The company also had
access to a EUR159 million structured debt facility (fully undrawn
as of June 2023). In addition, the company recently received around
$300 million related to the monetisation of the C-band assets.
Eutelsat needs to address the refinancing of the EUR800 million
bond due in October 2025. The existing liquidity sources offer some
cushion. However, Eutelsat's access to committed bank facilities is
restricted by a net leverage covenant set at net debt/EBITDA below
4.0x (for the facilities at the Eutelsat level, with the
calculation taking into account the expected proceeds after tax
from the C-band monetisation, for the calculation until June 2024);
while at the Eutelsat Communications level the net leverage
covenant has been relaxed to 4.75x until 2024, and 4.5x until 2025.
While Moody's expects sufficient headroom over the next 12 months,
the cushion has reduced after the profit warning because of the
increased leverage.
In addition, the company will need to raise additional funding to
cover the growth capex requirements, resulting in an expected
negative FCF of EUR400 million each year over 2024-27 (with a
funding peak in 2025) and any new debt raise will likely be
completed at higher interest rates than the debt that is being
retired because of the deterioration in credit quality and the
higher interest rate environment. However, Moody's understands that
the majority of the capex related to the Gen-2 constellation is
uncommitted and can be curtailed if needed.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Eutelsat's PDR of Ba3-PD reflects the use of a 50% family recovery
rate assumption, as is consistent with capital structures that
include both bank debt and bonds. The bonds are rated Ba3, in line
with the long term CFR, as the vast majority of the group's debt is
sitting at the Eutelsat SA level.
RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects Eutelsat's high leverage and the fact
that the combined entity will remain FCF negative over 2024-27,
which will require significant funding needs, at a time when the
company will also face material debt maturities starting in 2025.
The negative outlook also reflects the execution risk associated
with the merger with OneWeb as highlighted by the revised 2024
guidance, with potential additional downside risks to Moody's
expectations, in particular related to Eutelsat's ability to scale
up the OneWeb business and to restore earnings growth.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward rating pressure over the next 12-18 months is unlikely but
would require an improvement in Eutelsat's operating performance
owing to a combination of strong revenue and earnings growth, along
with improved free cash flow (FCF), and maintenance of strong
liquidity. Quantitatively, a rating upgrade would require its
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA ratio to decline below 4.25x,
and sustained positive FCF generation.
Further downward rating pressure would develop if Eutelsat fails to
address the refinancing of the 2025 debt maturities in the coming
months; Eutelsat's EBITDA does not recover in line with Moody's
current expectation and leverage does not reduce from the current
high levels, with its Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA ratio
exceeding 4.75x on a sustained basis.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Communications
Infrastructure published in February 2022.
COMPANY PROFILE
Eutelsat SA is the main operating subsidiary of Eutelsat
Communications SA, which was created in 1977 and is headquartered
in Paris (Eutelsat). Eutelsat is one of Europe's leading satellite
operators and one of the top-three global providers of FSS. The
company's fleet of 36 geostationary satellites reaches up to 150
countries in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas. Eutelsat
generates around 60% of its business from the video segment.
OPTIMUS BIDCO: Moody's Rates First Lien Loan Add-on 'B3'
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Moody's Investors Service affirmed the B3 long term corporate
family rating and the B3-PD probability of default rating of
Optimus BidCo SA ("Stow" or "the company"). Concurrently, Moody's
affirmed the B3 instrument ratings of the company's EUR99 million
senior secured first lien revolving credit facility (RCF) and its
EUR490 million senior secured first lien term loan B (1L TLB). The
EUR115 million fungible 1L TLB add-on is also rated B3. Moody's
expects to withdraw the Caa2 rating on the EUR85 million senior
secured second lien term loan (2L TLB) post its repayment from the
proceeds of the fungible 1L TLB add-on. The outlook remains
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating affirmation reflects Stow's proactive debt maturity
management. The announced transaction refinances the EUR85 million
2L TLB maturing in 2026 as well as EUR30 million outstanding
short-term debt like RCF drawings with a EUR115 million 1L TLB
add-on due in December 2028, which will also reduce interest costs.
The transaction follows the maturity extension of Stow's EUR490
million 1L TLB and upsized EUR99 million RCF from 2025 to 2028 that
the company executed in July 2023. Since the EUR85 million 2L TLB
did not provide sufficient loss-absorption cushion for a rating
uplift to the EUR490 million 1L TLB above the CFR before the
transaction, Moody's has affirmed the instrument rating to the 1L
TLB at B3, in line with the CFR in the expected all first lien
structure post the refinancing.
The long-dated maturity profile gives Stow the time to reduce
leverage and capitalize on the significant growth investments in
2022 and 2023 in the robotics division, Movu, in both production
facilities in Lokeren, Belgium, as well as product R&D. The
robotics division targets the high growth warehouse automation
market. Its order intake doubled in the 12 months ending September
2023 to EUR236 million with Q4 2023 expected to be the first
profitable quarter for the division. The B3 CFR assumes a gradual
profitability improvement with the ramping up of the investments in
the segment in 2024.
Stow's current credit metrics are weak for the B3 rating category
with Moody's-adjusted Debt / EBITDA at 9.0x for 12 months that
ended September 2023 (including increased capitalized R&D costs).
The high leverage resulted from the sizeable debt-funded growth
investments in 2022 and 2023 that have not generated meaningful
earnings yet, as well as from the cyclical softening in the
traditional racking business in H2 2023. Concurrently, Stow's free
cash flow (FCF) generation was negative in 2022 and 2023, also
burdened by higher interest payments. Moody's expects a gradual
improvement in the company's operating performance in 2024 towards
the agency's guidance for the B3 rating level with the robotics
division ramp-up counterbalancing cyclical softening.
Any further operating underperformance; lack of evidence of
profitability improvement in the robotics division; aggressive
debt-funded investment growth during cyclical downturn; or
liquidity deterioration will put additional pressure on the already
weakly positioned B3 CFR.
Stow's B3 CFR remains supported by its leadership position in the
European racking market; its integrated operating facilities
enabling economies of scale; its direct distribution model
supporting profitability; and its ability to largely pass through
inflation of key input costs, such as steel. Stow also benefits
from the long-term trends for logistics and e-commerce storage
space growth. Its CFR is additionally constrained by the
significant geographical and product concentration in industrial
storage solutions, which exposes Stow to the cyclical end markets
in the warehouse and logistics sectors.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Governance considerations have been a primary driver of this rating
action, reflecting Stow's debt liability management through
refinancing of its 2L TLB with a 1L TLB. The governance
considerations also reflect the aggressive debt-funded growth into
the robotics business currently leaving the company weakly
positioned in the B3 rating category.
OUTLOOK
Stow's credit metrics are currently weak for the B3 rating
category. Moody's stable outlook reflects the agency's expectation
that these metrics are at a trough as a result of an investment
cycle in the high growth warehouse automation segment and a general
end market softening. Moody's expect Stow to improve its earnings
generation in the next 12-18 months because of the ramping up of
the robotics division, also supported by the overall variable cost
structure of the business, translating to a Moody's-adjusted
debt/EBITDA between 7.0x and 7.5x. Moody's also expects Stow to
maintain adequate liquidity.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be upgraded if Stow (1) demonstrated a successful
ramp-up in the robotics division with a structurally improved
profitability; (2) reduced Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA below 6.0x
on a sustained basis; (3) improved Moody's-adjusted EBITA /
Interest Expense towards 2.0x sustainably; (4) generated meaningful
positive FCF on a sustained basis; and (5) maintained an adequate
liquidity profile with sufficient capacity under covenants at all
times.
The ratings could be downgraded if Stow's (1) Moody's-adjusted
debt/EBITDA remained above 8.0x on a sustained basis, (2)
Moody's-adjusted EBITA / Interest Expense did not improve
sustainably above 1.0x; (3) FCF remained negative for a prolonged
period; (4) liquidity weakened.
LIQUIDITY
Stow's liquidity is adequate. At the end of September 2023, Stow
had around EUR50 million cash on balance sheet and EUR79 million
available under its EUR99 million RCF. These liquidity sources,
together with funds from operations, which Moody's expect the
company to generate until the end of 2024, are sufficient to cover
the company's cash needs over the same period. The cash
requirements are mainly for working cash (for normal day-to-day
operating requirements); interest payments (around EUR55 million);
working capital swings to fund future growth; repayment of
short-term debt of around EUR40 million (EUR20 million of which
drawn RCF as per September 2023); and capital spending of around
EUR45 million (including lease principal payments).
After the expected repayment of the EUR85 million 2L TLB maturing
in 2026 as well as EUR30 million of short-term debt, there will be
no significant debt maturities until September 2028 when the RCF
falls due. Stow has to comply with one springing 1L TLB net
leverage covenant if the RCF is drawn by more than 40%. Moody's
expects the company to maintain a sufficient capacity under the
covenant over the next 12 to 18 months.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Optimus BidCo SA is the borrower of the EUR99 million senior
secured first-lien RCF (rated B3) and the EUR605 million senior
secured 1L TLB (B3) including the EUR115 million add-on. All
instruments mature in 2028. The RCF and the 1L TLB instruments rank
pari passu. The collateral package is limited to shares,
intercompany loans and bank accounts. Guarantors represent a
minimum of 80% of the group's EBITDA.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Manufacturing
published in September 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Optimus BidCo SA, located in Duisans, France, is the parent of
companies that trade under the name Stow. The company develops,
manufactures and installs heavy-duty racking, semi-automated and
automated racking, medium- to light-duty shelving systems and metal
furniture. According to management data, Stow is the largest
manufacturer of racking systems in Europe. It also entered the
automated warehouse solution market in 2021, currently under the
robotics segment (Movu). Stow is operationally headquartered in
Spiere-Helkijn, Belgium and has a production network of nine
industrial racking factories and two robotics facilities across
Europe. Funds of Blackstone acquired Stow from the private equity
company Equistone in September 2018. In the 12 months that ended
September 30, 2023, Stow generated around EUR992 million in revenue
and EUR88 million in company-adjusted EBITDA.
OPTIMUS BIDCO: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
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S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the rating on French
storage solutions provider Optimus Bidco SA (Optimus) to stable
from positive and affirmed its 'B-' long-term issuer credit rating.
S&P also affirmed its 'B-' issue rating on the company's first-lien
debt, with a '3' recovery rating, following the refinancing of the
second-lien debt.
At the same time, S&P withdrew its issue and recovery ratings on
the second-lien debt.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Optimus
will gradually improve its profitability, with adjusted EBITDA
margins stabilizing at about 8%-9% over the next 12 months. Free
operating cash flow (FOCF) generation should turn positive in 2024.
We expect that the company will generate funds from operations
(FFO) cash interest coverage of more than 1.5x and that it will
maintain leverage of about 7.0x-8.0x over the next 12 months.
"A decline in demand for Optimus' racking business and the ongoing
ramp-up of the Movu automation division constrained the company's
operating performance in 2023 and will delay deleveraging in the
first half of 2024. Our downward revision of the outlook to stable
from positive indicates our expectation that Optimus has not
achieved an adjusted debt to EBITDA of below 6.5x in 2023 and that
it will not achieve an adjusted debt to EBITDA of below 6.5x in
2024 either. We expect the company's revenue growth has been
notably softer at about 1%-3% in 2023, compared with our previous
expectation of about 15%. We also lowered our base-case
expectations for 2024 and assume a slower-than-expected expansion
of the racking business in the first half of the year. We now
forecast revenue growth of about 5%-7% in 2024, compared with our
previous expectation of about 15%. Lower volumes mainly affect
Optimus racking business, as evidenced by customers pausing their
capital expenditure (capex) decisions and delaying orders.
Conversely, Movu is expanding very fast due to the high demand for
automation. However, the division is still small and does not yet
fully compensate for the weaker performance of the racking
business. We therefore estimate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA
margins of about 8% in 2023 and 8.5%-9.0% in 2024. Our revised
expectations for adjusted margins in 2023 and 2024 fall short of
our previous expectations of S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA
margins improving toward 10% over 2023-2024. On a positive note, we
saw that price increases for Optimus' main materials, such as
steel, have decelerated recently. Moreover, Optimus buys steel in
advance, based on received racking orders. This should provide some
comfort for our profitability expectations. On the other hand,
inflation, and the expansion of Movu mean that labor costs
increased significantly in 2023 and will probably grow further in
2024 as the division expands. We also consider one-off charges of
EUR10 million in 2023 and about EUR8 million in 2024.
"Despite some pockets of weakness in the racking business, Movu
will continue to expand significantly on the back of dynamic
markets and a high demand for automation. The slowdown in the
racking business mainly results from the slowdown in European
markets, especially in Germany. We also believe that growth in this
segment is heavily driven by the new installations business, which
limits visibility, considering clients are reevaluating their capex
plans. We also see growth levels normalizing for the e-commerce
players. We now take a more cautious view on markets that
experienced a temporary post-pandemic boom and were largely driven
by pure play e-commerce participants because we expect the latter
will reduce their investments in new projects.
"We estimate that FOCF generation remained negative in 2023 and
that it will reverse slightly in 2024 on the back of operational
improvements and lower capex. Negative FOCF generation in 2023
mainly resulted from lower-than-expected volumes, slower
profitability appreciation, still elevated capex, and a materially
higher interest burden. Expansion investments in Europe led to
elevated capex of about EUR45 million. Hence, we estimate adjusted
FOCF was negative at about EUR21 million in 2023. In 2024, the
company will incur additional growth costs of about EUR15 million,
related to Movu Robotics. FOCF should turn slightly positive in
2024 on the back of increasing volumes and moderate margin
improvements, with capex reducing to about EUR35 million. We
anticipate that working capital requirements will be relatively
low. We estimate outflows of about EUR3 million-EUR5 million in
2023 on the back of the expansion of Movu and neutral outflows in
2024. We do not expect the company will pay any dividends to its
shareholders. We will review any larger mergers and acquisitions or
shareholder-friendly activities separately and in the context of
their effects on future leverage."
The recent refinancing of the second-lien debt is broadly leverage
neutral, extends the debt's maturity to 2028, and will slightly
reduce the interest burden. Optimus has refinanced its EUR85
million second-lien debt, which carries a very high interest
burden. Refinancing has taking place through an add-on of EUR115
million, issued through the company's first-lien debt. S&P said,
"We understand that the additional liquidity is used to pay down
its RCF drawing. We consider this transaction has no material
effect on Optimus' leverage. However, we expect interest expenses
will improve slightly. We anticipate that, pro forma the
transaction, Optimus will maintain FFO cash interest of above 1.5x
in 2024. We foresee comfortable liquidity headroom over the next 12
months and take into account about EUR50 million in cash balances
and EUR79 million available under the EUR99 million revolving
credit facility (as per end-September 2023). We view the recent
maturity extension of the term loan B to December 2028 as positive
for the company's liquidity."
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Optimus
will gradually improve its profitability, with adjusted EBITDA
margins stabilizing at about 8%-9% over the next 12 months. FOCF
generation should turn positive in 2024. We expect that the group
will generate FFO cash interest coverage of more than 1.5x and that
it will maintain leverage of about 7.0x-8.0x over the next 12
months."
S&P could lower the rating on Optimus if:
-- Optimus fails to generate at least neutral FOCF over the next
12 months;
-- FFO cash interest coverage falls substantially below 1.5x,
which could occur if S&P observes higher-than-expected
restructuring charges, including integration costs, or if
end-markets do not recover and operational performance does not
strengthen as anticipated, jeopardizing the sustainability of the
company's capital structure;
-- Profitability falls below 8% of adjusted EBITDA;
-- S&P observes a breach of covenants or higher-than-expected cash
outflows, for example because of additional restructuring measures;
or
-- Liquidity concerns increase because of a deteriorating
operating and financial performance.
S&P could raise the rating if Optimus':
-- Profitability and credit metrics materially strengthen such
that debt to EBITDA is sustainably below 6.5x, while the company
maintains positive FOCF and a FFO cash interest coverage of about
2.0x;
-- Adjusted EBITDA exceeds 10%; and
-- Financial policy becomes more conservative and supports a
sustainable improvement in the aforementioned metrics.
=============
I R E L A N D
=============
CVC CORDATUS: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating to EUR5.8MM Cl. F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service announced that it has assigned the
following provisional ratings to notes to be issued by CVC Cordatus
Opportunity Loan Fund-R Designated Activity Company (the
"Issuer"):
EUR 40,000,000 Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
EUR19,000,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
EUR18,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2033,
Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
EUR27,800,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned (P)A2 (sf)
EUR32,700,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)
EUR21,700,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned (P)Ba3 (sf)
EUR5,800,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes
due 2033, Assigned (P)B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rationale for the ratings is based on a consideration of the
risks associated with the CLO's portfolio and structure as
described in Moody's methodology.
The Issuer is a static CLO. The issued notes are collateralized
primarily by broadly syndicated senior secured corporate loans. The
portfolio is expected to be fully ramped up as of the closing
date.
CVC Credit Partners Investment Management Limited ("CVC") may sell
assets on behalf of the Issuer during the life of the transaction.
Reinvestment is not permitted and all sales and principal proceeds
received will be used to amortize the notes in sequential order.
In addition to the EUR465 million classes of notes rated by
Moody's, the Issuer will issue EUR37.5 million of Subordinated
Notes which are not rated.
The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests which,
if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to pay down
the notes in order of seniority.
Methodology underlying the rating action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
December 2021.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on
the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Section 2.3 of
the "Moody's Global Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan
Obligations" rating methodology published in December 2021.
Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:
Par Amount: EUR500,000,000
Diversity Score: 61
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2946
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 4.24% (actual spread vector of the
portfolio)
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.82% (actual spread vector of the
portfolio)
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.92%
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.3 years (actual amortization vector
of the portfolio)
Moody's base case assumptions are based on a provisional portfolio
(including unidentified assets) provided by the manager.
MADISON PARK X: Moody's Affirms B2 Rating on EUR12.15MM F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings on the following
notes issued by Madison Park Euro Funding X DAC:
EUR22,000,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2030, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022 Upgraded to
Aa1 (sf)
EUR32,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2030,
Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022 Upgraded to Aa1
(sf)
EUR17,820,000 Class C-1 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Upgraded to A1 (sf)
EUR10,530,000 Class C-2 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Upgraded to A1 (sf)
EUR16,030,000 Class D-1 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Affirmed Baa2 (sf)
EUR7,370,000 Class D-2 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Affirmed Baa2 (sf)
Moody's has also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR253,500,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR251,620,632) Class
A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2030, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Sep 22, 2022 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR21,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR20,844,313) Class A-2
Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2030, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Sep 22, 2022 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR24,750,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Affirmed Ba2 (sf)
EUR12,150,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2030, Affirmed B2 (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2022
Affirmed B2 (sf)
Madison Park Euro Funding X DAC, issued in January 2018, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by Credit Suisse Asset Management Limited. The
transaction's reinvestment period ended in July 2022.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1, B-2, C-1, C-2, D-1 and D-2
notes are primarily a result of the benefit of the shorter weighted
average life of the portfolio which reduces the time these rated
notes are exposed to the credit risk of the underlying portfolio.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-1, A-2, E and F
Notes are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements. In particular, Moody's assumed that
the deal will benefit from a shorter amortisation profile than it
had assumed at the last rating action in September 2022.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in its analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on its published methodology and
could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In its base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR440.13m
Defaulted Securities: EUR8.5m
Diversity Score: 58
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2811
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.45 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.95%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.40%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.62%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectation of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into its cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
December 2021.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Moody's Approach to Assessing Counterparty Risks in
Structured Finance methodology" published in October 2023. Moody's
concluded the ratings of the notes are not constrained by these
risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
other Moody's analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
MILIONE SPA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba1' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook of Milione S.p.A.
to positive from stable. Concurrently, the Ba1 corporate family
rating, the Ba1 senior secured rating on the EUR300 million bond,
and the Ba2-PD probability of default rating have been affirmed.
Milione is the holding company of SAVE S.p.A., the concessionaire
operating the Venice and Treviso airports in Italy.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The change in the outlook to positive recognizes Milione's
improving performance and the potential for the group's credit
metrics to strengthen to the levels commensurate with a Baa3
rating. Such an improvement in financial metrics may also create
further headroom against the financial covenants in Milione's debt
documentation, which would create greater financial stability and
which would be in line with what one would expect for an investment
grade credit rating.
RATIONALE FOR RATING AFFIRMATION
Traffic at Milione's airports reached 14.3 million passengers at
the end of December 2023, a 20% yearly increase in comparison with
2022 and only 3% below 2019 levels. More specifically, Milione's
traffic performance is sustained by strong pent up travel demand,
the attractiveness of Venice as one of the world's most popular
travel destinations, and the high share of domestic and short-haul
intra-EU traffic (around 82% of total traffic as of December 2019),
which has demonstrated faster recovery from the pandemic compared
to long-haul routes.
Although the macroeconomic environment is subdued and annual growth
will decline over the next two years, Moody's expects the positive
operational trend to continue, with Milione's traffic to slightly
exceed the pre-pandemic level for the full-year 2024. Among other
factors, the group's performance will be sustained by robust travel
demand, growing long-haul traffic (particularly North America), and
the introduction of new routes. In addition, Milione's commercial
activities will continue to support the group's earnings and
financial profile, while the impact of sustained inflation on costs
remains moderate, also thanks to the de-indexation of some of the
group's operating expenses.
In March 2023, the Italian Transport Authority approved a new
tariff framework for Italian airports, maintaining broad continuity
with the existing one. In the case of Venice airport, changes in
the tariff mechanisms will need to be agreed with Ente Nazionale
per l'Aviazione Civile through an amendment of the Contratto di
Programma framework. Moody's understands that the parties are
holding discussions to incorporate the new framework and agree on
the tariffs for the forthcoming regulatory period (2024-28). While
a level of uncertainty remains, under Moody´s base case Moody's
assume that tariffs for Venice airport will remain broadly
unchanged over the next regulatory period.
More generally, the Ba1 ratings of Milione reflect positively (1)
the strong fundamentals of its managed airports and the economic
strength of its service area; (2) the favourable competitive
position of Venice and Treviso airports, although with some
transmodal competition for domestic traffic; (3) the high
proportion of origin and destination passengers characterized by a
significant component of European travelers; and (4) a fairly
diversified carrier base with no meaningful exposure to weak
airlines.
On the other hand, Milione's ratings also reflect (1) a financial
profile that is one of the most leveraged amongst Moody's rated
European airports; (2) downside risks to traffic growth stemming
from a subdued macroeconomic environment; and (3) the concentration
of debt maturities over the 2027-28 period, which heightens
refinancing risks.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT COVENANTS
Moody's considers Milione's liquidity profile to be good, with an
estimated EUR115 million of cash and EUR125 million of undrawn
credit facilities as of end December 2023. Milione's major debt
maturities relate to the EUR540 million syndicated loan due in 2027
and the EUR300 Euro Private Placement bond due in 2028. Hence, the
company does not face any significant debt maturity until 2027, and
Moody's expects that its cash resources will be sufficient to cover
all cash requirements, including operating expenses and interest
payments, until at least June 2025. This assessment also relies on
the expectation that shareholders will maintain a prudent approach
to dividends.
Milione's debt documentation includes a set of financial covenants,
the most stringent of which is a minimum net debt/EBITDA ratio that
reduces progressively from 8.0x for 2023 to 7.0x for 2027, and a
minimum interest cover ratio that increases progressively from 2.5x
for 2023 to 4.0x for 2027, tested as of end-June and end-December
on a historical basis. Throughout the pandemic, the company
received approvals to waive its financial covenants, which negated
any covenant breaches. More recently, thanks to improved
operational and traffic performance, the risk of covenant breaches
has reduced. However, the company will need to build sufficient
headroom against its default financial covenants in order to
maintain a robust financial profile.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Milione's ratings could be upgraded if (1) the group's funds from
operations (FFO)/Debt ratio and Moody´s debt service coverage
ratio (DSCR) were to remain above 8% and 1.5x, respectively, on a
sustained basis, and (2) the group maintained solid liquidity. In
addition, Milione would be expected to retain sufficient headroom
against financial covenant default levels to sustain normal
cyclical business conditions.
Milione's ratings could be downgraded if (1) the company´s credit
metrics weaken, such that the FFO/Debt ratio was below 6% and
Moody's DSCR was below 1.4x on a sustained basis; (2) there was a
risk of covenant breaches without adequate mitigating measures in
place; or (3) the group's liquidity profile deteriorates.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Privately
Managed Airports and Related Issuers published in November 2023.
COMPANY PROFILE
Milione is the holding company for SAVE S.p.A., the operator of the
Venice and Treviso airports under long-term concessions expiring in
2043 and 2055, respectively. As of December 2023, SAVE reached a
total traffic of 14.3 million passengers, of which 11.3 million at
Venice and 3.0 million at Treviso.
Milione is ultimately controlled by Finanziaria Internazionale,
which holds investments in a number of financial and industrial
sectors in Italy (12% stake), and the infrastructure funds managed
by DWS (part of the Deutsche Bank Group) and InfraVia Capital
Partners, each with a 44% stake.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
MILLICOM INT'L: Moody's Lowers CFR to Ba2 & Unsecured Debt to Ba3
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Millicom International
Cellular S.A.'s ("Millicom") Corporate Family Rating to Ba2 from
Ba1 and its Senior Unsecured Long-Term Debt Rating to Ba3 from Ba2.
At the same time, Moody's downgrade the CFRs and Senior Unsecured
Long-Term Debt Ratings of Millicom's subsidiaries CT Trust ("Tigo
Guatemala"), Telecomunicaciones Digitales, S.A. ("Tigo Panama") and
Telefonica Celular del Paraguay S.A.E. ("Telecel" or "Tigo
Paraguay") to Ba2 from Ba1, with a stable outlook. Previously, the
ratings were on review for downgrade. This concludes the review
initiated on October 6, 2023.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that the group's credit
profile over the rating horizon, particularly regarding leverage,
cash flow generation and interest coverage, will better align with
metrics expected for the Ba2 rating level. The group's high capital
expenditure intensity and resulting pressure on free cash flow
(FCF) generation pose challenges to significant leverage reduction,
despite the group's revised 2024 investment plans.
Moody's recognizes Millicom's public commitment, led by its Board
of Directors and executive management, to focus on deleveraging
towards a 2.5x net leverage goal by 2025. However, the execution
risks persist due to the need to enhance performance and liquidity
in its Colombian subsidiary, UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones, S.A. (Tigo
UNE), and to meet the group's overall growth targets for other
subsidiaries. These subsidiaries are likely to face continuous
competitive and macroeconomic pressures in their main markets,
which could potentially hinder the improvement in credit metrics.
Moody's expects Millicom's consolidated net leverage to close 2023
at 3.1x and improve in 2024 to about 2.7x, while interest coverage,
measured as adjusted EBITDA minus capex over interest expense,
should close 2023 at around 1.5x and improve in 2024 to 2.1x.
Moody's projects adjusted gross leverage to close 2023 at 3.6x and
improve in 2024 to about 3.3x, while FCF should turn positive in
2024, profiting from the lower capex planned for the year and the
full benefit of important cost reduction measures taken over the
course of 2023.
The actions on Tigo Guatemala, Tigo Panama and Tigo Paraguay align
their ratings with Millicom's CFR. This reflects the strong ties
between the parent and subsidiaries, mainly when it comes to
strategic influence and consolidated financial management. This is
evidenced by the recently revised investment strategy for the group
as well as maintenance of a cash pool and the charging of
value-creating fees in addition to dividends. As a holding company,
Millicom is entirely reliant on the upstreaming of cash flows from
its subsidiaries, which could undermine the subsidiaries' ability
to generate free cash flow. In addition, the complexity of the
organizational structure introduced by shared ownership and joint
ventures brings governance risks. This structure could expose the
group to political interference and shareholder disputes,
potentially impacting its operations, liability, and liquidity
management, as recently witnessed in Colombia.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Millicom will
maintain adequate liquidity while remaining committed to its
medium-term 2.5x net leverage target. Moody's also expect the
company to continue its conservative approach of managing debt
maturities ahead of schedule to avoid near-term concentration of
payments.
As of September 2023, the group had approximately $800 million in
cash and a fully available committed revolving credit facility
totaling $600 million, due in October 2025. The current cash
position covers the group's short-term debt and maturities through
2025. However, from 2026 to 2032, the group will face substantial
maturities annually, requiring rigorous liability management
efforts. As of September 2023, Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA
was 3.5x, reflecting the group's total consolidated debt of $7.74
billion. Total gross debt excluding leases amounts to $6.17
billion, of which $2.76 billion matures between 2026 and 2028.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade the ratings if the group's leverage improves
to below 2.5x total adjusted debt/EBITDA, Moody's adjusted retained
cash flow to gross debt improves to above 30% on a sustained basis.
In addition, the group is expected to demonstrate strong liquidity
on a sustained basis as well as maintenance of its strong market
position, good geographic diversification of cash flows, continued
ability to repatriate dividends from its subsidiaries and
conservative financial policies.
The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA is
expected to remain above 3.5x over the rating horizon. Ratings
could also be downgraded if the group's liquidity position
deteriorates, or if the company fails to demonstrate ability to
secure financing to meet upcoming maturities. Additionally, an
increase in governance risk or persistently high execution risks in
Colombia could negatively impact the ratings.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Millicom International Cellular S.A.
Downgrades:
Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1
Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba3 from
Ba2
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Rating Under Review
Issuer: CT Trust
Downgrades:
Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1
Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba2
from Ba1
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Rating Under Review
Issuer: Telecomunicaciones Digitales, S.A.
Downgrades:
Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1
Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba2 from
Ba1
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Rating Under Review
Issuer: Telefonica Celular del Paraguay S.A.E.
Downgrades:
Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1
Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba2 from
Ba1
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Changed To Stable From Rating Under Review
The principal methodology used in these ratings was
Telecommunications Service Providers published in November 2023.
Millicom International Cellular S.A. (Millicom) is a global
telecommunications investor focused on Latin America, with cellular
operations and licenses in nine countries in the region. The
company has around 45 million mobile customers and serves over 4.1
million cable and broadband households. The group's two largest
markets are Guatemala and Colombia, which together contributed to
about 49% of total revenue as of September 2023. Millicom's
reported consolidated revenue and EBITDA for the last twelve months
ended September 2023 reached $5.5 billion and $2.2 billion,
respectively. The company is incorporated in Luxembourg and
publicly listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market in New York and Nasdaq
Stockholm.
SUMMER BC BIDCO: Moody's Rates $650MM Senior Secured Term Loan 'B2'
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a B2 rating to the $650
million senior secured term loan B extension (extended US facility
B) announced by Kantar Global Holdings S.a r.l. (Kantar), to be
issued by its indirect subsidiary Summer (BC) Bidco B LLC and
co-borrowed by Summer (BC) Holdco B S.a r.l. The $650 million
senior secured term loan B is an extension of a part of the
existing $500 million senior secured term loan B2 and the $350
million senior secured term loans B, all under Summer (BC) Bidco B
LLC. The extended US facility B is due 60 months after the date on
which the extension of the EUR1.235 billion senior secured term
loan B3, announced on January 30, 2024, becomes effective.
All other ratings including Kantar Global Holdings S.a r.l.'s B2
long-term corporate family rating (CFR) are unaffected.
RATINGS RATIONALE
On February 5, Kantar Global Holdings S.a r.l. (Kantar or the
company, B2 stable) announced a $650 million senior secured term
loan B extension of the existing $500 million senior secured term
loan B2 and the $350 million senior secured term loans B all issued
under Summer (BC) Bidco B LLC, combined. The announcement is a
further step in addressing the upcoming debt maturities in 2026.
Kantar has guided revenue growth of 4% and EBITDA of around $719
million for 2023, slightly below Moody's previous expectations,
reflecting the challenging macroeconomic conditions across the
sector. Nevertheless, the company's earnings performance has
benefitted from the implementation of cost savings programmes
across the businesses which include technology, procurement, and
real estate savings.
The transaction is leverage-neutral. Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA
of 7.2x (excluding overdraft) for the last twelve months September
30, 2023 places Kantar weakly in the rating category with little
room for deviation from its deleveraging plan. The company has
indicated it remains committed to reducing leverage ahead of any
further acquisitions or increases in returns to shareholders. The
agency expects Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA of 6.4x
(excluding overdrafts) for 2024, in the company's base case, as the
company's cost initiatives deliver earnings improvement.
The agency expects Moody's adjusted free cash flow (FCF) for 2023
to be negative to the tune of around $280 million which weighs on
the company's rating. A material swing in working capital,
continued restructuring costs and high capital spending are factors
that contribute to Moody's projected negative FCF in 2023. Interest
costs are also high. Kantar has guided for $282 million in net
interest costs for 2023. Kantar's ability to generate positive FCF
in the next 12-18 months will depend on a significant improvement
in working capital, a reduction in restructuring costs, and
moderating capital spending. However, material execution risks
remain.
LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
The company's liquidity position remains adequate. The company
reported cash and cash equivalents of $158 million (net of
overdraft) as of September 2023. Summer (BC) Bidco B LLC has a
committed senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF) of $400
million, of which $121 million was drawn as of January 31, 2024 and
will be substantially repaid with proceeds from the transaction
announced on January 30, 2024. The RCF contains a springing net
leverage covenant of 7.2x when the RCF is drawn more than 40% net
of cash, which is unlikely considering the company's strong cash
position.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2 rating on Summer (BC) Bidco B LLC's senior secured bank
credit facility instruments which form the majority of the group's
debt is in line with Kantar's CFR. The backed senior unsecured
notes issued by Summer (BC) Holdco A S.a r.l. are rated Caa1.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the company
will continue to generate cost savings and achieve operating
performance such that the company's gross leverage (Moody's
adjusted) will trend to below 6.5x over the next 12-18 months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
A rating upgrade is unlikely given that is weakly positioned in the
rating category. However, the rating could be upgraded over time if
Kantar demonstrates steady revenue and EBITDA growth; its gross
debt/EBITDA (Moody's adjusted) decreases sustainably and remains
below 5.5x; and the company's Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt improves
towards 10%.
The rating would be downgraded if Kantar's revenue and EBITDA fail
to grow; its gross leverage (Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA)
remains above 6.5x on a sustained basis; or its FCF is materially
negative in 2024. There would also be downward rating pressure if
the company's liquidity were to significantly deteriorate.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Kantar is a global data, research, consulting, and analytics
business that assesses consumer behaviour, serving more than 20,000
clients in more than 100 countries. The company is 40% owned by WPP
Plc (Baa2 stable) and 60% owned by Bain Capital. In the last twelve
months September 30, 2023, Kantar generated net reported revenue of
$3.0 billion (gross revenue of $3.5 billion) and Moody's adjusted
EBITDA of $634 million.
===========
S W E D E N
===========
SBB: Creditor Commences Legal Proceedings for Debt Recovery
-----------------------------------------------------------
Utkarsh Shetti and Marie Mannes at Reuters report that SBB said on
Feb. 6 that one of its creditors had started legal proceedings
against the Swedish property group for debt recovery, citing a
breach of a bond clause.
According to Reuters, although the company did not disclose the
name of the bondholder, it said the combined debt owned by the
party represented EUR46 million (US$49.43 million).
Reuters reported in November that U.S. hedge fund Fir Tree Partners
was accelerating its notes and starting proceedings against SBB for
debt recovery, the first such official demand faced by the
landlord.
Britain's court website showed that Fir Tree filed a claim with HM
Courts & Tribunals on Feb. 5 against SBB, Reuters relates.
SBB said on Feb. 6 it firmly rejected the allegation that it was in
breach of a consolidated covenant ratio -- a measure of a company's
ability to service its debt -- set among the terms of that
borrowing programme, Reuters recounts.
The company also said it considers the acceleration notice received
from the bondholder ineffective, Reuters notes.
The group is at the epicentre of a property crash that threatens to
engulf the Swedish economy, having racked up vast debt by buying
public property, including social housing, government offices,
schools and hospitals, Reuters discloses.
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
A1 COMMS: Goes Into Administration
----------------------------------
Business Sale reports that A1 Comms Limited, a Derbyshire-based
retailer of mobile phones, fell into administration earlier this
month, with David Kemp and Richard Hunt of SFP Restructuring
appointed as joint administrators.
The company had filed a notice of intention (NOI) to appoint
administrators on Feb. 1, Business Sale relates.
In its accounts for the year to April 30 2022, its turnover stood
at just over GBP152 million, with post-tax profits of close to
GBP452,000, Business Sale discloses. At the time, its fixed assets
were valued at GBP2.3 million and current assets at GBP39.1
million, with total equity of GBP5.2 million, Business Sale
states.
AI SILK: Moody's Assigns 'B3' CFR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a B3 corporate family rating
and a B3-PD probability of default rating to AI Silk Midco Limited
(Planet), a Guernsey-based provider of software and integrated
payment services to the high-end retail and hospitality sectors.
Moody's has also assigned B3 ratings to the company's proposed
EUR143 million senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF) and
EUR910 million senior secured term loan B (TLB). The outlook is
stable.
Proceeds from the new facilities will be used to refinance most of
the existing debt of Planet's subsidiaries, including facilities
currently consolidated into Franklin UK Bidco Limited, fund cash to
balance sheet and cover transaction fees and expenses. Planet will
be the entity at the top of the restricted group upon completion.
Moody's has therefore withdrawn the B3 CFR and the B3-PD PDR of
Planet's subsidiary Franklin UK Midco Limited as well as the
outlook which was previously stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The B3 CFR reflects Planet's: (1) growth potential of the business,
supported by good customer traction of the company's software and
integrated payment service proposition; (2) diversified geographic
reach, albeit predominantly within the European region; (3) highly
diversified and stable customer base; (4) strengthening key credit
metrics in the next 12-24 months and adequate liquidity, albeit
from currently very weak levels.
Concurrently, the B3 CFR is constrained by Planet's: (1) small
scale and concentration on high-end retail and hospitality
verticals; (2) high dependence on discretionary consumer spending
and international travel patterns; (3) limited track record
observed to date of timely conversion of new service bookings into
profits; (4) high exceptional costs borne in 2022-23 in relation to
M&A integration and operating efficiency plans and on top of weak
performance, leading to elevated leverage and negative
Moody's-adjusted FCF generation expected in 2024.
Planet is well positioned to capitalize on demand for software and
integrated payment services in the underpenetrated European
high-end retail and hospitality verticals, owing to a diversified
and highly complementary product offering that streamlines the
operational complexity of customers dealing with multiple service
providers. Traction around Planet's products is good, as evidenced
by annual service bookings that increased to EUR96 million in 2023
from EUR41 million in 2021, most of which from new customer wins.
However, operational challenges delaying the customer onboarding
and ramping of related revenue streams, alongside costs associated
with operational turnarounds have significantly weighted on
Planet's profitability and cash generation in 2023.
Moody's expects Planet's key credit metrics to strengthen in
2024-25, supported by progressive ramp-up of past booking cohorts,
some improved execution and significantly lower exceptional costs.
Accordingly, net revenue shall gradually, albeit sustainably rise
towards EUR425- EUR450 million in 2024-25 from around EUR375
million in 2023. Underlying growth, coupled with the inherently
higher operating leverage of the business and lower exceptional
expenses should support Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of EUR150- EUR160
million compared to estimated depressed levels of EUR55 million in
2023.
Nevertheless, Planet's pro-forma Moody's-adjusted gross leverage
(including EUR121 million of shareholder loans treated as debt)
will concurrently remain elevated at 7.7x. Negative FCF generation
of around EUR30 million along with (EBITDA – capital expenditure)
/ interest expense of 0.8x at year-end 2024, also denote a weak
starting point for the assigned rating. While Moody's currently
expects more substantial progress on organically de-leveraging
towards 5.5x and positive FCF generation in 2025, it also cautions
that the pace of such improvement remains ultimately dependent on
Planet's successful operational execution and containment of
exceptional expenses over the next 12-24 months.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Planet's CIS-4 indicates that the assigned rating is lower than it
would have been if ESG risk exposure did not exist. The score
primarily reflects Planet's tolerance for high leverage along with
M&A appetite and execution risks given the company's private
ownership by Advent and Eurazeo. Environmental and social risks
have a more limited impact on the current credit profile, primarily
through Planet's dependence on international air travel, successful
retention of highly-skilled tech talent and handling sensitive
customer data.
LIQUIDITY
Planet's liquidity is adequate. Moody's assessment considers:
-- Expectation of around EUR30 million of cash burn in 2024,
weighted towards the first half of the year as outflows related to
operating efficiency plans are phased out. Subject to stronger
underlying operating performance, normalization of working capital
swings and sensible reduction in exceptional expenditure, Moody's
projects FCF generation to turn positive at around EUR30 million in
2025.
-- EUR50 million of incremental cash balance along with access to
a EUR143 million revolving credit facility (RCF), as a result of
the proposed transaction.
-- Good headroom under the RCF's springing net leverage covenant,
set at 8.3x and tested when the facility is drawn more than 40%.
-- Presence of modest sources of alternate liquidity, namely in
relation to the Networking business under strategic review.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Planet's capital structure comprises a EUR143 million RCF expiring
in 2030 and a EUR910 million senior secured term loan B maturing in
2031. Both instruments are rated in line with the B3 CFR,
reflecting their pari passu ranking and the absence of any
significant liabilities ranking ahead or behind them. The debt
instruments share the same security package.
COVENANTS
Moody's has reviewed the marketing draft terms for the new credit
facilities. Notable terms include the following:
Guarantor coverage will be at least 80% of the consolidated EBITDA
(determined in accordance with the agreement) generated by
companies incorporated in England and Wales, France, Guernsey,
Ireland, Switzerland and the USA, and will include all companies in
those jurisdictions representing 5% or more of total consolidated
EBITDA. Only companies incorporated in those jurisdictions are
required to provide guarantees and security. Security will be
granted over key shares and receivables, plus floating charges in
England, Wales and Ireland and all assets security in the USA.
Unlimited pari passu debt is permitted up to a senior secured net
leverage ratio (SSNLR) of 4.60x, and unlimited unsecured debt is
permitted subject to a 6.50x TNLR or a 2x fixed charge coverage
ratio. Any permitted debt can be made available as an accordion
facility within the permitted indebtedness baskets. Any restricted
payment is permitted if the total secured net leverage ratio
(TSNLR) is 3.85x or lower, and any restricted investment is
permitted if the TSNLR is 4.25x or lower. Asset sale proceeds are
only required to be applied in full (subject to exceptions) where
TSNLR is 4.35x or greater.
Adjustments to consolidated EBITDA include the full run rate of
cost savings and synergies, capped at 25% of consolidated EBITDA
(with the denominator calculated including such synergies on an
uncapped basis) and believed to be realisable within 24 months of
the relevant event.
The proposed terms, and the final terms may be materially
different.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations of a sequential
improvement in credit metrics over the next 12-18 months, on the
back of successful conversion of bookings into profits, significant
reduction in exceptional costs and absence of debt-funded
acquisitions that would otherwise delay the expected de-leveraging
trajectory.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
A rating upgrade to B2 requires Planet to:
-- Establish and maintain good track record of timely converting
bookings into revenue streams, so as to support strong growth in
both revenue and EBITDA
-- Reduce Moody's-adjusted leverage (gross debt/EBITDA)
sustainedly below 5.5x whilst maintain interest cover (EBITDA –
Capex)/Interest Expense well above 1.75x, and
-- Generate strong positive FCF, so that FCF / gross debt exceeds
5%
Conversely, the rating would downgraded if Planet's:
-- Underlying trading performance remains subdued
-- Moody's-adjusted leverage sustainedly exceeds 7.0x and interest
cover remains below 1.0x
-- FCF generation remains consistently negative, or
-- Liquidity position weakens
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Planet is an integrated payment and software provider serving
predominantly blue-chip merchants in the high-end retail and
hospitality industries in Europe. Historically a tax-free refund
processor, Planet has diversified into payment processing
activities and business management software through acquisitions.
In 2022, Planet reported net revenue of EUR310 million and EBITDA
of EUR50 million (calculated according to Moody's definition).
Founded in 1985, Planet is co-owned by private-equity firms Eurazeo
and Advent International.
AI SILK: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary 'B-' ratings to AI Silk
Midco Ltd. and to the proposed term loan B (TLB) and revolving
credit facility (RCF). The preliminary '3' recovery rating on the
facilities reflects our expectation of meaningful (50%) recovery.
S&P expects to withdraw its ratings on Franklin Ireland and its
debt once the proposed transaction completes.
The outlook is stable because S&P expects Planet will generate
12%-13% net revenue growth, materially reduce exceptional costs
from mid-2024, with adjusted debt peaking at about 12x in 2024 and
reducing toward 7x in 2025, and its FOCF turning positive in 2025,
all while Planet maintains adequate liquidity.
Planet, an integrated payments processor, plans to refinance the
debt outstanding at its operating subsidiaries and now operate as a
combined group. Over the past two years Planet has expanded its
operations in payments processing and software by acquiring
hospitality software companies (Protel, Datatrans, Hoist Group,
Avantio, and Rebag Data) and integrating into Planet the operations
across the two parts of the group. It now operates as an integrated
solutions provider of payment services, business management
software (BMS), and value-added services (VAS). It will refinance
the debt outstanding at its two main operating subsidiaries on a
consolidated basis: the parent of the combined group, AI Silk Midco
Ltd., will issue a EUR910 million senior secured TLB due in 2031
and a EUR143 million RCF due in 2030. It will use the proceeds to
redeem the outstanding EUR457 million TLB issued by Franklin Uk
Bidco and EUR254 million facility issued by the unrated software
group AI SILK UK Midco 1.
S&P said, "We estimate that, following the transaction, the
consolidated group's adjusted leverage will be very high, at about
12x (including debt facility issued by a holding company and vendor
loan note) in 2024, but we forecast it should reduce toward 7x the
following year thanks to a ramp-up in adjusted EBITDA."
The combined group is better diversified and could achieve higher
and more stable profits and cash flows than Franklin Ireland, the
parent of Planet's payments business. Following the integration of
recent acquisitions in the software space, Planet has become a
vertically integrated provider of integrated payments, BMS, and VAS
to high-end retailers and operators in the hospitality sector. It
provides global merchants and those operating in multiple countries
with a single point of contact and a sole technology in payments
and offers other business-to-business services including
value-added tax (VAT) refunding and constant currency conversion
across geographies. Planet also offers white-labelled products
(when one company brands another company's product as its own) in
the currency conversion space to third parties, mainly to financial
institutions and global payments companies. S&P said, "We view the
combined group's offering as more resilient to merchant churn and
providing additional cross-sell opportunities to existing
customers. The group's diversification into retail and hospitality
verticals reduced its dependency on international travel, as the
integrated payments software is exposed to domestic purchases. We
also note that about 24% of the combined group's revenue is
subscription based, 4% coming from the high-end retail vertical
sales of BMS, and the remainder from BMS contracts sold to the
hospitality vertical." This should support the stability and
predictability of the group's net revenue and profits over the
medium term. Also, Planet benefits from operating in two regulated
markets (VAT-refund and payments), providing barriers to entry for
new competition.
S&P said, "We anticipate Planet's profitability will improve over
the next 24 months. Over the past two years net revenue growth has
not picked up as projected due to a slower travel recovery and
softer ramp-up in revenue generation from contracted merchants.
This is due to some merchants' preference in going live with Planet
products gradually, in particular for those merchants operating
globally with multiple domestic retail stores and hotels. We
believe net revenue growth will accelerate in 2024, backed by
already booked contracts and increased cross-selling opportunities
thanks to product integration.
"In 2022-2023 Planet incurred very high exceptional costs, which in
2022 related mainly to integration of acquisitions. In 2023 the
group undertook an operational efficiency program that led to high
severance payments and consultancy costs, and we understand this
has been largely completed. We therefore expect the exceptional
costs that weigh on adjusted EBITDA to materially reduce in 2024
and further in 2025, supporting adjusted EBITDA to about EUR100
million in 2024 and above EUR150 million in 2025 from only EUR13
million in 2023. Planet's leaner and largely fixed cost base should
also support probability improvement as net revenue growth
continues. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to rise toward 25% in
2025 from about 16% in 2024.
"We expect Planet's FOCF will improve toward break-even during the
next 18 months. In 2024 we forecast the group's FOCF will be
negative, due to remaining exceptional costs that will be mainly
incurred in the first quarter of 2024 and due to an increase in
lease payments related to the data center migration. The reduction
in exceptional costs and only minimal working capital outflows of
about EUR10 million per year should help improve FOCF to EUR50
million-EUR60 million in 2025. We assume the group will continue
investing in its payments technology, with annual adjusted capital
expenditure (capex) of EUR30 million-EUR35 million but no material
one-off investments. We also assume Planet will not make any
material debt-funded acquisitions in the near term, as it focuses
on continued integration and efficient operation of its existing
portfolio.
"The final ratings will depend on satisfactory review of all final
documentation and final terms of the proposed debt. The preliminary
ratings should therefore not be construed as evidence of final
ratings. If we do not receive final documentation within a
reasonable time, or if the final documentation and final terms of
the proposed TLB and RCF depart from the materials and terms
reviewed, we reserve the right to withdraw or revise the ratings.
Potential changes include, but are not limited to, utilization of
the proceeds, maturity, size and conditions of the facilities,
financial and other covenants, security, and ranking.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectations that in 2024-2025
Planet will generate 10%-15% net revenue growth by pursuing
cross-selling opportunities across hospitality and high-end retail
verticals, while its exceptional costs will materially reduce from
mid-2024, leading adjusted EBITDA and FOCF generation to strongly
improve in 2025. As such, we expect adjusted debt to peak at about
12x in 2024 and reduce toward 7x in 2025, and its FOCF to turn
positive in 2025. We also factor into the outlook our assumption
that the group will maintain adequate liquidity.
"We could lower the rating if Planet's operating performance and
credit metrics do not improve as we expect, for example because of
a slower ramp-up from merchants and persistently high exceptional
costs. This could lead to FOCF remaining negative and very high
leverage beyond 2024, making its capital structure unsustainable.
We could also lower the rating if the group's liquidity weakens due
to materially weaker cash flows.
"We see an upgrade as unlikely over the next 12 months. Beyond the
coming year, we could raise the rating if Planet continues to
operate successfully and adjusted EBITDA strongly improves on the
back of materially lower exceptional costs, with EBITDA margins
exceeding 30%. An upgrade would also require a reduction in
adjusted debt to EBITDA to below 7x and FOCF to debt to
consistently exceed 5%.
"Governance and social factors are a moderately negative
consideration in our credit analysis of Planet. Our assessment of
the company's financial risk profile as highly leveraged reflects
corporate decision-making that prioritizes the interests of the
controlling owners, which is the case for most rated entities owned
by private-equity sponsors. Our assessment also reflects their
generally finite holding periods and a focus on maximizing
shareholder returns. At the same time, we see social risks as an
inherent part of the travel industry, which is exposed to health
and safety concerns, terrorism, cyberattacks, and geopolitical
unrest."
ARDONAGH GROUP: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary 'B-' long-term issuer
credit rating to U.K.-based insurance broker, Ardonagh Group Ltd.
(AGHL) and its financing subsidiaries, including Ardonagh Finco
Ltd. and Ardonagh Group Finance Ltd. Additionally, S&P has assigned
preliminary 'B-' issue ratings and '3' recovery ratings to the
company's proposed $500 million senior secured notes and EUR500
million senior secured notes. S&P also assigned its 'CCC' issue
rating and '6' recovery rating to the proposed $1 billion senior
unsecured notes.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation of an improvement in
Ardonagh's adjusted credit metrics, including EBITDA margins and
FOCF, from 2025.
S&P said, "Pro forma for the transaction, we forecast that leverage
will remain elevated at about 9.6x in 2024, compared with 15x in
2023. We base our leverage calculation for 2024 on adjusted debt of
GBP4.6 billion, comprising: the proposed GBP2.8 billion equivalent
of senior secured debt and GBP0.8 billion equivalent of senior
unsecured debt; preference shares (including accrued interest) held
by a financial sponsor, which we view as debt-like; and about
GBP300 million of adjustments relating to other indebtedness,
noncancellable lease obligations, and deferred and contingent
consideration linked to acquisitions. In September 2023, Ardonagh
announced the merger of its retail segment with Markerstudy. We
expect the merger to complete in 2024 (subject to regulatory
approvals) and generate net sale proceeds of about GBP750 million.
We assume that the company will use about GBP400 million of
disposal proceeds for debt reduction in 2024 and remainder toward
cash on the balance sheet."
Adjusted EBITDA in 2023 was affected by significant business
transformation and acquisition costs but did not include full-year
contribution from the completed acquisitions. As a result, S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted leverage remained high in 2023 at 15.0x
(13.5x excluding preference shares). S&P said, "Also, while our
calculations exclude about GBP100 million of EBITDA from disposal
of the retail business, we do not assume debt repayment from
disposal proceeds in our adjusted debt for 2023. As a result, we
estimate FOCF remained significantly negative in 2023. While we
forecast deleveraging and material improvement in FOCF from 2024,
our ratings also reflect the company's limited track record of
generating positive FOCF and lowering exceptional costs, and as a
result deleveraging on an actual basis."
S&P said, "We forecast a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA
in 2024. Full-year consolidation of the 2023 acquisitions (notably
Envest and Assepro) and relatively lower transaction and
integration costs compared with 2023 will help EBITDA. We forecast
the adjusted EBITDA margin will improve toward 29% from 2024 (from
26% in 2023), since the EBITDA generated from organic growth and
the full-year consolidation of completed acquisitions in 2023 will
be offset by exceptional costs relating to the business
transformation and completion of the acquisitions and integration
of the acquired businesses. This results in adjusted debt to EBITDA
of about 8.8x (about 7.6x excluding preference shares) as of 2025.
"We expect FOCF to almost break-even in 2024, before turning
positive in 2025. Given the group's high interest burden, we expect
funds from operations (FFO) to cash interest coverage to remain
tight, in the range of 1.2-1.5x.
"We assess the business risk profile of Ardonagh as fair. This
assessment is underpinned by the group's full services insurance
intermediary offering, meaningful scale, and strong position in the
markets it serves, particularly among the U.K. commercial and small
and midsize enterprises and the London market."
Ardonagh is among the largest insurance intermediaries in the U.K.
It has a similar scale to Howden Group and global market leader
Aon's U.K. arm. Alongside Howden, it is one of the largest global
brokers headquartered outside the U.S.
The business benefits from good diversification of its gross
written premium (GWP) by business line. No single end market
accounts for more than 15% of total group GWP. Diversification by
carrier is also good. Furthermore, the group's geographical
diversification has improved markedly over the past five years,
with acquisitions and organic growth lowering the proportion of
revenue derived from the U.K. to about 33% in 2023 from about 84%
in the past.
Ardonagh is continuing to expand via acquisitions. Despite the
group's increased scale and diversification, it remains
significantly smaller than the leading global brokers, and of more
modest scope given its relative lack of presence in mass market
auto and life insurance brokerage. This is aligned with brokers of
similar scale, such as Howden and NFP, but one category weaker than
larger global players Brown & Brown Inc. and Arthur J Gallagher &
Co., and two categories weaker than global leaders Aon plc, Marsh &
McLennan Cos, and Willis Towers Watson PLC.
The insurance brokerage industry is highly competitive compared
with some subsegments of the professional services industry. This
constrains the group's business risk profile. Insurance brokerage
is a relationship-driven business, with houses frequently poaching
teams of brokers from one another. This can benefit brokerage
businesses in that they can purchase books of business without
necessarily acquiring competitors outright. However, it also makes
revenue streams more vulnerable to competitive actions by peers
relative to service providers with a contracted revenue base.
The final ratings will depend on our receipt and satisfactory
review of all final transaction documentation. Accordingly, the
preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final
ratings. If S&P Global Ratings does not receive final documentation
within a reasonable time frame, or if final documentation departs
from materials reviewed, S&P reserves the right to withdraw or
revise our ratings. Potential changes include, but are not limited
to, use of loan proceeds, maturity, size and conditions of the
loans, financial and other covenants, security, and ranking.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that the group will
deleverage and start generating positive FOCF from 2025, despite
its high interest burden and costs associated with integrating
recent acquisitions.
S&P could take a negative rating action if:
-- The company fails to close the proposed transaction in line
with S&P's expectations of interest rates and pricing;
-- Weaker trading performance or ongoing exceptional costs led S&P
to expect materially lower or negative FOCF on an ongoing basis;
-- The company takes on highly aggressive debt-funded acquisitions
or dividends that increase leverage and reduce cash flow; or
-- Weak cash generation and tightened liquidity led us to consider
the group's capital structure to be unsustainable.
S&P said, "Although we believe it to be unlikely in the near term,
we could take a positive rating action if the group outperformed
our forecasts, resulting in material deleveraging and improved cash
flow generation with FFO cash interest coverage of more than 2.0x.
"Governance factors are a moderately negative consideration in our
credit rating analysis of Ardonagh. Our assessment of the group's
financial risk profile as highly leveraged reflects corporate
decision-making that prioritizes the interests of the controlling
owners, in line with our view of the majority of rated entities
owned by private-equity sponsors. Our assessment also reflects
generally finite holding periods and a focus on maximizing
shareholder returns."
LERNEN BONDCO: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Additional Liquidity
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' ratings on Lernen Bondco PLC
(trading under the name Cognita) and Lernen Bidco Ltd., and on its
senior secured debt, including the recent add-on to the term loan.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that Cognita's
revenue and earnings will grow, and it will successfully integrate
recent acquisitions and maintain adequate liquidity for its
operating and financial requirements over the next 12 months.
However, after that period, we estimate that the company will
require alternative liquidity sources to maintain sufficient
liquidity.
"Cognita reported revenue growth ahead of our expectations for
2023, although it continues to report large negative free operating
cash flow (FOCF) after leases. The group finished fiscal 2023
(ended Aug. 31, 2023) with revenue at GBP858 million, supported by
the large acquisitions during the year, with margins around 23%, at
the lower end of our previous base case. We expect the group to
continue to report revenue growth in 2024 of around 20%, with
margins improving above 25%, thanks to the margin-accreditive
acquisitions mainly in the Middle East. However, Cognita continued
to report large negative FOCF after leases of GBP45 million in 2023
as a result of the high level of development capital spending
(capex) as it continues investing in its school portfolio. We
believe this trend will continue in 2024, hampering FOCF after
leases, which we expect to remain at around negative GBP30 million
and become marginally positive only in 2025 as the group slows its
capex investment.
"Large acquisition and capex could hamper liquidity over the next
12-24 months. However, our liquidity assessment remains adequate,
supported by the recent add-on to the existing term loan. During
2023, the group made three major acquisitions: York Preparatory
School in New York, Redcol in Colombia, and Repton in United Arab
Emirates. We anticipate the group to pay around GBP215 million in
deferred considerations over the next two years, from Nov.30, 2023.
These, together with capex of around GBP100 million annually, will
have a significant impact on the group's liquidity. As of Aug. 31,
2023, the group had GBP180 million of cash on the balance sheet
(GBP215 million as of Dec. 1, 2023) and around GBP130 million of
available RCF remaining out of GBP215 million.
"Without any further sources of liquidity, in addition to the
recent add-on, over the next 12 months, we expect the group to use
the liquidity available and report liquidity levels (including cash
and RCF available) below GBP100 million over the next 18-24 months.
In the absence of alternative liquidity sources and given the intra
year working capital swings, debt maturities of local debt and
continuous investments, we believe liquidity could swiftly become
insufficient to sustainably run the group. We note that the group's
approach to liquidity management can imply additional risk since it
is funding its long-term growth projects via short-term sources,
such as RCF facilities for mergers and acquisitions and capex
funding. We, however, understand that there is some flexibility
regarding investment and timing of certain projects.
"Cognita continues to be highly leveraged with debt to EBITDA at
10.0x in 2023 only falling toward 8.0x in 2024, in line with our
previous expectation. Following the recent transaction, the group
holds approximately GBP1.1 billion-euro equivalent term loans in
addition to the drawings under the RCF, around GBP650 million of
leases, and GBP215 million of deferred considerations. We expect
the group will benefit from increasing EBITDA and subsequently
leverage falling toward 8.0x in 2024. However, it continues to be
one of the most leveraged groups compared with its rated peers.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Cognita will
sustain strong revenue growth in 2024 and into 2025, supported by
increasing capacity and utilization rates, thanks to recent
acquisitions and investment in schools. As a result, we expect the
group to generate more than GBP1 billion of revenue and EBITDA
margins of 25%-26% in 2024. We expect the FOCF after leases to
remain negative in 2024 and become marginally positive in 2025 as
the group reduces development capex and profitability continues to
improve. We also expect Cognita to maintain adequate liquidity for
its operating and financial requirements over the next 12 months;
however, we note the additional requirement for alternative
liquidity sources beyond that period for Cognita to continue to
maintain sufficient liquidity for its operations."
S&P could take a negative rating action if the group were to
materially underperform our base-case scenario, resulting in:
-- Weakening liquidity, due to a lack of additional sources over
the next few months, that leaves the group unable to pre-fund
operations, capital investments, and acquisitions over 2024 and
2025;
-- FOCF after leases remaining negative for a prolonged time; or
-- Prolonged and significant weakness in operating earnings, such
that S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage remained materially above
8.0x in 2024 and in 2025, such that we viewed the capital structure
as becoming unsustainable.
S&P considers a positive rating action unlikely within the next 12
months, due to continued high leverage and large cash outflows
resulting over the period and its view that the group will need to
raise further liquidity to fund itself over the next 12-24 months.
However, S&P could take a positive rating action if Cognita's
performance materially exceeded its base case such as:
-- FOCF after leases turns materially positive sustainably; and
-- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA falls to below
7.0x.
An upgrade would require the group to maintain an adequate
liquidity profile at all times and a financial policy supporting
these ratios. It will also require a hedging policy commensurate
with neutral currency risk management assessment.
OLLIE QUINN: Enters Administration, Owes More Than GBP4.8MM
-----------------------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Ollie Quinn UK Limited, a
Middlesex-based opticians, fell into administration at the end of
January, with the Gazette confirming the appointment of Andrew Hook
and Julie Palmer of Begbies Traynor as joint administrators on
February 6.
According to Business Sale, in the company's accounts to the year
ending June 30 2023, its fixed assets were valued at GBP433,526 and
current assets at GBP1.6 million. At the time, however, its net
liabilities stood at more than GBP4.8 million, Business Sale
discloses.
SIGNET UK: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service changed Signet UK Finance plc's outlook
to positive from stable. At the same time, Moody's affirmed
Signet's corporate family rating at Ba3 and its probability of
default rating at Ba3-PD. Moody's also upgraded the company's
senior unsecured notes to B1 from B2 and its speculative grade
liquidity rating ("SGL") to SGL-1 from SGL-2.
The change in outlook to positive reflects Signet's continued
strong credit metrics given its low debt balances and its healthy
free cash flow generation. It also reflects governance
considerations particularly that Signet will maintain balanced
financial strategies that support resilient credit metrics despite
its current earnings decline as consumers pull back from pricy
non-discretionary merchandise to focus on essentials, such as food
and gas. For the LTM ended October 28, 2023, Signet's debt +
preferred stock/EBITDA was 1.7x and EBIT/interest was 6.6x.
The affirmation of the Ba3 CFR reflects Moody's expectation that
Signet will be able to maintain its current level of margins as it
will partially mitigates any reduction in demand through ongoing
cost reduction initiatives. It also reflects Signet's portfolio of
well-recognized brand names and its very good liquidity.
The upgrade to SGL-1 reflects Signet's very good liquidity which is
supported by roughly $644 million of unrestricted cash as of
October 28, 2023, $1.4 billion available under its $1.5 billion
asset based revolving credit facility ("ABL") expiring July 2026,
solid free cash flow of about $540 million for the LTM ended
October 28, 2023 and ample covenant cushion.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Signet's Ba3 CFR reflects its position as the world's largest
retailer of diamond jewelry with well-recognized brand names and a
solid market position in the US, Canada and the UK. Signet
continues to execute its "Inspiring Brilliance" growth strategy
initiated in mid-2021. This strategy will continue to include a
combination of organic growth and opportunistic acquisitions such
as Blue Nile, Inc., which was funded with cash on hand. Signet has
also executed a cost reduction program which has partially offset
the year over year low to mid-teens decline in same store sales.
The cost reductions combined with only $147 million of debt
outstanding have allowed Signet's credit protection measures to
remain strong. The Ba3 CFR also reflects Signet's conservative
financial policy including its less than 2.75x publicly stated
financial leverage target (included its preferred stock), currently
at 2.3x per Signet's calculations.
The rating is constrained by Signet's narrow focus on a
discretionary product with a demonstrated sensitivity to weak
economic conditions. The rating is also constrained by the effect
of future demographic shifts that may affect demand for the
company's jewelry.
The upgrade of the senior unsecured notes to B1 reflect the low
level of borrowings under Signet's $1.5 billion ABL, which is
senior to the unsecured notes in the capital structure.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Signet's ratings could be upgraded if the company demonstrates
consistent positive organic revenue growth with EBITDA margins of
at least 15.5%. A ratings upgrade would also require the company to
maintain very good liquidity, a conservative financial policy and a
consistent track record of success with maintaining its outsourced
customer credit arrangements. Quantitatively, ratings could be
upgraded if Adjusted debt to EBITDAR is sustained below the
company's stated leverage target (including preferred equity) of
2.75x and adjusted EBIT/Interest is sustained above 5.5x.
Signet's ratings could be downgraded if sales continue to decline,
EBITDA margins materially deteriorate, if there is a disruption to
its credit outsourcing arrangements or the company's liquidity
deteriorates. Quantitatively, ratings could be downgraded if debt
to EBITDA is sustained above 3.5x and adjusted EBIT/Interest is
sustained below 2.5x.
Signet UK Finance plc is an indirect subsidiary of Bermuda-based
Signet Jewelers Limited. Signet Jewelers Limited is the world's
largest retailer of diamond jewelry. Signet operates 2,747 stores
primarily under the name brands of Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared,
Banter by Piercing Pagoda, Diamonds Direct, Blue Nile,
JamesAllen.com, Rocksbox, Peoples Jewellers, H. Samuel, and Ernest
Jones. As of October 28, 2023, the North America segment operated
2,348 locations in the US and 92 locations in Canada, while the
international segment operated 307 stores in the United Kingdom,
Republic of Ireland, and Channel Islands. Revenue was about $7.3
billion for the LTM ended October 28, 2023.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail and
Apparel published in November 2023.
TEAM REDLINE: Goes Into Administration
--------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Team Redline Racing Limited, a
Stockton-on-Tees based provider of maintenance and repair services
for racing vehicles, fell into administration last week, with John
Hedger of Seneca IP appointed as the company's administrator.
According to Business Sale, in its accounts for the year to October
31, 2021, the company's fixed assets were valued at close to
GBP800,000, with current assets standing at GBP1.3 million and net
assets of just under GBP400,000.
VENTILATION CENTRE: Falls Into Administration
---------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Ventilation Centre Limited, a
Sheffield-based manufacturer and supplier of duct air systems, fell
into administration last week following more than 30 years of
trading, with Michael Chamberlain and Rehan Ahmed of Quantuma
Advisory appointed as joint administrators.
The company's balance sheet as of June 29, 2022, showed fixed
assets of just over GBP47,000 and current assets valued at slightly
over GBP1 million, while net assets amounted to GBP437,504.
WINCANTON DIGITAL: Enters Administration, Owes Around GBP120,000
----------------------------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Wincanton Digital Print Limited, a
Somerset-based specialist in digital, litho, large format and
prepress print, fell into administration with Andrew Hook and Julie
Palmer of Begbies Traynor appointed as joint administrators.
In the company's accounts to October 31, 2022, its fixed assets
were valued at GBP505,211 and current assets at GBP433,782, while
net liabilities amounted to just under GBP120,000.
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
[*] BOOK REVIEW: TAKING CHARGE: Management Guide to Troubled
------------------------------------------------------------
TAKING CHARGE: Management Guide to Troubled Companies and
Turnarounds
Author: John O. Whitney
Publisher: Beard Books
Softcover: 283 Pages
List Price: $34.95
Order a copy today at:
http://beardbooks.com/beardbooks/taking_charge.html
Review by Susan Pannell
Remember when Lee Iacocca was practically a national hero? He won
celebrity status by taking charge at a company so universally known
as troubled that humor columnists joked their kids grew up thinking
the corporate name was "Ayling Chrysler." Whatever else Iacocca may
have been, he was a leader, and leadership is crucial to a
successful turnaround, maintains the author.
Mediagenic names merit only passing references in Whitney's book,
however. The author's own considerable experience as a turnaround
pro has given him more than sufficient perspective and acumen to
guide managers through successful turnarounds without resorting to
name-dropping. While Whitney states that he "share[s] no personal
war stories" in this book, it was, nonetheless, written from inside
the "shoes, skin, and skull of a turnaround leader." That sense of
immediacy, of urgency and intensity, makes Taking Charge compelling
reading even for the executive who feels he or she has already
mastered the literature of turnarounds.
Whitney divides the work into two parts. Part I is succinctly
entitled "Survival," and sets out the rules for taking charge
within the crucial first 120 days. "The leader rarely succeeds who
is not clearly in charge by the end of his fourth month," Whitney
notes. Cash budgeting, the mainstay of a successful turnaround, is
given attention in almost every chapter. Woe to the inexperienced
manager who views accounts receivable management as "an arcane
activity 'handled over in accounting.'" Whitney sets out 50
questions concerning AR that the leader must deal with -- not
academic exercises, but requirements for survival.
Other internal sources for cash, including judiciously managed
accounts payable and inventory, asset restructuring, and expense
cuts, are discussed. External sources of cash, among them banks,
asset lenders, and venture capital funds; factoring receivables;
and the use of trust receipts and field warehousing, are handled in
detail. Although cash, cash, and more cash is the drumbeat of Part
I, Whitney does not slight other subjects requiring attention. Two
chapters, for example, help the turnaround manager assess how the
company got into the mess in the first place, and develop
strategies for getting out of it.
The critical subject of cash continues to resonate throughout Part
II, "Profit and Growth," although here the turnaround leader
consolidates his gains and looks ahead as the turnaround matures.
New financial, new organizational, and new marketing arrangements
are laid out in detail. Whitney also provides a checklist for the
leader to use in brainstorming strategic options for the future.
Whitney's underlying theme -- that a successful business requires
personal leadership as well as bricks and mortar, money and
machinery -- is summed up in a concluding chapter that analyzes the
qualities that make a leader. His advice is as relevant in this
1999 reprint edition as it was in 1987 when first published.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
The TCR Europe subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for
members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription
or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter Chapman at 215-945-7000.
* * * End of Transmission * * *