/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/240729.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Monday, July 29, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 151
Headlines
F R A N C E
BANIJAY S.A.S.: S&P Affirms 'B+' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
OBOL FRANCE: Moody's Affirms B3 CFR, Rates New Secured Term Loan B3
G E R M A N Y
E-MAC DE 2006-I: Fitch Affirms 'CCsf' Rating on Two Tranches
MOSEL BIDCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR & Alters Outlook to Stable
PONY SA 2024-1: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to EUR5.3MM Cl. F Notes
RENK GROUP: S&P Upgrades ICR to 'BB-' on Higher Defense Exposure
I R E L A N D
AVOCA CLO XIV: S&P Raises Class E-R Notes Rating to 'BB+ (sf)'
JAMESTOWN RESIDENTIAL 2024-1: S&P Assigns B (sf) Rating to G Notes
PALMER SQUARE 2024-2: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating to Cl. F Notes
I T A L Y
BELVEDERE SPV: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR320MM Cl. A Notes to Caa2
DECO 2019-VIVALDI: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class D Notes to 'BB-sf'
L I T H U A N I A
MAXIMA GRUPE: S&P Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
N E T H E R L A N D S
AMMEGA GROUP: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B-' on Delayed Deleveraging
R U S S I A
UZBEKHYDROENERGO JSC: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LT IDR, Outlook Stable
S W E D E N
IGT HOLDING III: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3 & Alters Outlook to Stable
T U R K E Y
[*] Moody's Upgrades Ratings on 17 Turkish Banks
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ASIMI FUNDING 2024-1: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class X Notes
CONSORT HEALTHCARE: Moody's Cuts GBP93.3MM Sec. Bonds Rating to Ca
EUROSAIL 2006-2BL: Fitch Affirms 'CCCsf' Rating on Class F1c Notes
I-LOGIC TECHNOLOGIES: S&P Affirms 'B' ICR, Outlook Stable
LUDGATE FUNDING 2007 FF1: Fitch Affirms B-sf Rating on Cl. E Notes
OAT HILL NO.3: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class F Notes to 'B+sf'
X X X X X X X X
[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week July 22 to July 26, 2024
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F R A N C E
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BANIJAY S.A.S.: S&P Affirms 'B+' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
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S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' long-term issuer credit and
issue ratings on Banijay S.A.S. and its senior secured debt. S&P
also affirmed its 'B-' issue rating on the company's senior
subordinated notes.
The stable outlook on Banijay reflects S&P's anticipation that the
company's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA will stay
below 5.5x and its FOCF to debt will sustainably strengthen to more
than 5%.
S&P said, "The rating affirmation reflects our view that Banijay
will maintain stable organic revenue growth and profitability above
rated peers, supporting good FOCF generation and gradual
deleveraging. We think that Banijay is well positioned compared to
its rated peers as the global leading independent content producer
and expect it will deliver sound operating performance in the next
two-three years. We therefore revised our threshold for Banijay's
'B+' rating and expect it to sustain adjusted debt to EBITDA of
less than 5.5x and FOCF to debt of more than 5%.
"We forecast Banijay's adjusted debt to EBITDA will stay at about
5.25x in 2024 and reduce toward 5.0x in 2025. This is because we
expect demand for Banijay's well-known and long-lived shows, as
well as new scripted and unscripted content, will translate into
revenue growth of 3%-5% in 2024-2025. In 2023, some linear
broadcasters and streaming platforms have curbed their investment
in new content due to lower advertising revenue, an increased focus
on profits, and the Hollywood writers and actors strike that
delayed some decision-making processes. However, we think demand
for Banijay's shows, especially its nonscripted and local-language
content, will remain robust in 2024 and likely accelerate in 2025.
We forecast absolute EBITDA growth over 2024-2025 and a largely
stable S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin of about
13.5%-14.0% over the same period. This reflects growing
contribution from distribution activities generating higher margin
than the production business. We anticipate a reduction in
acquisition-related costs as we understand the company will focus
on integrating recently acquired businesses and organic growth,
which will support adjusted EBITDA margins. We expect deliveries of
new shows and programs will accelerate in the second half of 2024
following a light first quarter. It is likely that Banijay will
generate sound S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF (including
exceptional items and financial interests) of about EUR145 million
in 2024, improving toward EUR175 million in 2025. This will be
supported by revenue growth and modest capital expenditure (capex)
of about 1%-2% of revenue, partly offset by working capital
outflows reflecting the continued ramp-up in production and higher
interest costs compared with 2023.
"Banijay is the largest independent audiovisual content producer
globally, supporting its rating. We think Banijay is well
positioned to achieve consistent organic growth. Banijay operates
in the competitive and fragmented audiovisual content production
and distribution business and holds a market-leading position
globally, being the largest independent producer in terms of
revenue and content library hours, ahead of Lions Gate
Entertainment Corp. (B/Stable/--), Mediawan Holding SAS
(B/Stable/--), and Gold Rush Bidco Ltd. (All3 Media; B/Stable/--).
Banijay's track record of producing long-lasting and replicable
content support its business growth. The company is focused on
producing unscripted content, which accounted for 75% of production
and distribution revenue in 2023 and is characterized by higher
margin and less capital-intensiveness than scripted content. This
supports Banijay's sound profitability and FOCF compared with some
peers that are more focused on scripted content. Banijay also
benefits from a well-diversified revenue portfolio with no customer
representing more than 8% and no single program accounting for more
than 2%. The company has a strong IP portfolio, providing
visibility and some recurring revenue and cash flows. About 44% of
revenue generated in 2023 was derived from shows airing for more
than five seasons and 70% from shows airing for more than one
season. The company also produces content that is successful in
multiple countries. In unscripted, Deal or no deal, Big Brother,
and Master Chef have been aired in more than 50 countries since
their launch. In scripted, Versailles and Peaky Blinders have been
made available to more than 200 territories through the BBC and
Netflix. Additionally, Banijay leverages on its IP portfolio to
generate significant revenue through license fees and the sale of
finished tapes to broadcasters and streamers (this activity
accounts for about 12% of 2023 revenue), which delivers higher
profitability compared with production activities because there are
limited costs associated with these activities. Finally, Banijay is
strengthening its capabilities in adjacent segments, such as
animation and live events (through its recent investment in Balich
Wonder Studio), which generate stronger profits and offer
additional monetization opportunities for the company's IP
portfolio through merchandising and licensing.
"We view the credit quality of parent LOV Group to be similar to
that of Banijay. The company is part of a wider group and 92% owned
by the Banijay Group (new name of FL Entertainment since May 2024),
which itself is owned by LOV Group that holds 47% economic and 73%
voting rights in Banijay Group. We view LOV Group as the ultimate
parent of the wider group because it has significant influence over
Banijay Group's and Banijay's strategy and financial policy, and
Banijay remains one of its main operating assets (alongside Banijay
Gaming). We view LOV Group's credit quality as similar to that of
Banijay--with a group credit profile assessment of 'b+'. We think
LOV Group's leverage will reduce in the next two to three years
following leverage reduction at Banijay and Banijay Group, which
have both set public financial policy targets. We forecast
Banijay--the main operating subsidiary of LOV Group, accounting for
about 72% of consolidated revenue--will reduce leverage toward its
net leverage target of less than 4.0x excluding earnout
liabilities, which translates into less than 4.75x on an adjusted
basis, in the mid-term. We also assume Banijay Group--which makes
almost 95% of LOV Group's consolidated revenue--will follow its
publicly communicated financial policy, which includes reducing its
net debt to EBITDA to less than 3.0x by end-2024, from 3.1x in
2023.
"The stable outlook reflects our view that Banijay's adjusted
leverage will stay below 5.5x and FOCF to debt will exceed 5%. This
will reflect organic revenue growth and positive FOCF on the back
of demand for Banijay's content and the company's ability to
deliver successful shows. The stable outlook factors in our
expectation that leverage will not increase at Banijay's parent,
LOV Group."
S&P could lower the rating if:
-- Banijay's operating performance weakens, for example if
broadcasters and streaming platforms cut their content budgets or
Banijay is unable to deliver successful shows or retain creative
talent such that it sustains adjusted debt to EBITDA at more than
5.5x and FOCF to debt below 5%.
-- LOV Group's credit quality weakened, for example if it followed
a more aggressive financial policy leading to higher leverage.
S&P said, "In our view, an upgrade is unlikely over the next 12
months. Over the longer term, we could raise the rating if Banijay
were to gain scale and diversity of its operations, improving our
view of its business. Upside would also hinge on the company and
its parent's financial policy that focuses on maintaining stronger
credit metrics, as well as on our view of the improving credit
quality of the parent."
OBOL FRANCE: Moody's Affirms B3 CFR, Rates New Secured Term Loan B3
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Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B3 long-term corporate family
rating of Obol France 2 SAS (a holding company owner of French
funeral operator OGF), and its B3-PD probability of default rating,
following the proposed amend and extend transaction of its credit
facilities. Concurrently, Moody's have assigned B3 ratings to the
proposed amended and extended EUR716 million senior secured term
loan B2 due December 2028 and EUR40 million senior secured
revolving credit facility (RCF) due September 2028, both borrowed
by Obol France 2 SAS. Upon close of the transaction, Moody's
expect to withdraw the ratings on the existing EUR816.4 million
senior secured Term Loan B2 and the EUR40 million senior secured
revolving credit facility due 2025, both borrowed by Obol France 3
SAS, a fully owned subsidiary of Obol France 2 SAS. The outlook
remains stable.
Governance considerations were a key driver of this rating action.
"The ratings affirmation reflects Moody's expectation that,
following the proposed amend and extend exercise, OGF will
significantly improve its liquidity position as debt maturity
extension reduces refinancing risk", says Giuliana Cirrincione,
Moody's lead analyst for OGF. "However, despite the shareholder's
support to prepay a portion of the outstanding term loan, OGF's
financial leverage remains high and will only modestly improve over
the next 12-18 months if mortality remains low", adds Mrs.
Cirrincione.
RATINGS RATIONALE
OGF is looking to amend its existing EUR816.4 million term loan and
EUR40 million RCF to extend their maturity by three years to
September and December 2028, respectively, and repay EUR100 million
of its TLB with the EUR150 million proceeds from the equity
injection, in the form of an intercompany loan, from its
shareholder Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP). The remaining
EUR50 million proceeds from OTPP will remain on OGF's balance sheet
and will be partly used to pay transaction fees.
The transaction will result in a reduction of approximately 0.6x in
the Moody's adjusted leverage for OGF, to 6.3x as of March 31, 2024
(based on preliminary data). The maturity of the EUR157 million PIK
notes (including accrued interests) sitting outside the restricted
group will be extended as well by 2.5 years, to 2029. While the PIK
debt is not included in the Moody's adjusted metrics, it represents
an overhang risk because its value increases over time due to
accruing interests and it may likely be refinanced within the
restricted group in due course.
The maturity extension of the facilities is positive from a
liquidity and refinancing risk perspective. However, despite the
partial repayment of the TLB, leverage remains high and Moody's
expect its reduction to be slow over the next 12-18 months, with
continued low mortality being a key downside risk.
In its strategic plan to 2030, the company remains focused on the
roll-out of new point of sales, including also the recently
launched Essentiel brand, and on the expansion of its crematoria
infrastructure as key initiatives to support volume growth. While
the payback period of new crematoria is long, lower inflation
together with continued cost savings and pricing will drive an
improvement in EBITDA in the financial year ending March 2025 to
around EUR160 million, from EUR152 million the year before (on a
Moody's adjusted basis), and in leverage as well, to 6.1x. However
Moody's note that, excluding the positive impact in financial 2024
and 2025 of the gains from hedging contracts on the debt – which
are included in Moody's definition of EBITDA – leverage would be
higher in both years, respectively at 8x (pre-transaction and based
on preliminary data) and 6.7x.
OGF's strategic plan entails high and growing capital investments,
with around EUR60 million in both financial 2025 and 2026, of which
a significant portion is expansionary capex for the funeral
activities and new crematoria building and hence largely
discretionary in nature. As a result, Moody's expect free cash flow
(FCF) to remain moderately negative over the next 12-18 months, and
then to breakeven once the EBITDA growth from the expanded agencies
network and crematoria portfolio gains traction.
Besides the persistently high leverage and the debt overhang from
the PIK notes, OGF's B3 CFR reflects the company's relatively small
size and geographical concentration in France; the high competition
in the fragmented French funeral services industry; Moody's
expectation of moderately negative FCF until fiscal 2026 due to its
ambitious expansionary capex plan, which is subject to a degree of
execution risk; and the risk that mortality remains low for a
prolonged time following the peak during the COVID pandemic.
Conversely, OGF's rating is supported by its leading market
position in France with a nationwide presence and a solid asset
base; the defensive long-term growth of the funeral industry
because of an ageing population; its good profitability,
underpinned by an integrated business model and consistent pricing
power; its adequate liquidity; and the potential for a sustainable
EBITDA growth trajectory from its recently expanded agencies
network, once funeral volumes recover.
LIQUIDITY
Pro forma for the proposed amend and extend transaction, OGF has
adequate liquidity, with a cash balance of EUR64 million as of
March 31, 2024 and access to a fully undrawn EUR40 million
committed revolving credit facility (RCF).
Moody's expect the starting cash balance, together with internal
cash generation, to sufficiently cover all the company's cash needs
over the next 12-18 months. However, based on Moody's assumptions,
and in addition to roughly EUR55 million annual lease and
concession fees payments, capital investments will be substantial,
at around EUR45-50 million, including both maintenance and
expansionary spending. As a result, FCF will remain moderately
negative – in the range of EUR10-15 million – over the next
12-18 months.
Following the amend and extend transaction, OGF will not face any
debt maturities before December 2028, when its TLB is due. Based on
the proposed conditions, the RCF will contain a springing covenant
of net leverage not exceeding 9x, tested when the facility is more
than 40% utilised. Moody's expect the RCF will remain largely
undrawn and hence OGF to maintain ample capacity under the
covenant.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Pro forma for the amend and extend exercise, OGF 's capital
structure comprises a EUR716 million senior secured TLB due in
December 2028 and a EUR40 million senior secured RCF due September
2028. The B3 ratings of the TLB and the RCF are in line with the
CFR, reflecting that these two facilities rank pari passu and
represent the majority of the company's financial debt. Both
instruments are secured by first-priority-ranking pledges over
shares, intercompany receivables and bank accounts, and are
guaranteed by the group's operating subsidiaries representing not
less than 80% of its consolidated EBITDA. There are significant
limitations on the enforcement of guarantees and collateral under
French law.
OGF's B3-PD probability of default rating reflects Moody's
assumption of a 50% family recovery rate, based on the limited set
of financial covenants comprising only a springing covenant on the
RCF.
The existing PIK instrument, whose maturity will be postponed by
2.5 years to 2029 in line with the proposed amend and extend
transaction, sits outside of the restricted group and is therefore
not included in Moody's debt calculation. Based on Moody's Hybrid
Equity Credit methodology, Moody's also treat as 100% equity the
EUR150 million intercompany loan to be issued by Obol France 1 in
the context of the proposed amend and extend exercise to downstream
the equity contribution from OTPP into the group.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's expectation that OGF
will be able to prevent further market share erosion and maintain
its pricing power, with network expansion and continued cost
savings driving a moderate EBITDA recovery. Quantitatively, this
assumes a still high Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA, just
slightly below 7x, and moderately negative FCF over the next 12-18
months, and expectations for at least breakeven FCF from financial
2026. The stable outlook also assumes that the company will
successfully complete the proposed amend and extend transaction in
line with the proposed conditions.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade OGF's ratings if the company achieves
faster-than-expected earnings growth, with its Moody's-adjusted
gross debt/EBITDA below 6.0x on a sustained basis. A positive
rating action would also require the company to maintain positive
free cash flow (FCF) with Moody's-adjusted FCF/Debt ratio trending
towards mid-single digit percentages.
Moody's could downgrade OGF's ratings if the company fails to
achieve sustainable EBITDA growth resulting in its adjusted
leverage persistently above 7x, as a result of low mortality or
competitive pressure. The ratings could also be downgraded if OGF's
EBITA to interest coverage ratio goes below 1.5x, FCF remains
negative beyond financial 2026 or its liquidity deteriorates
significantly, such as in case of a more aggressive capex plan.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Paris, OGF is the leading funeral services company
in France. Its activities include funeral services (both burials
and cremations), sale of monuments, cemetery works, crematoria
management, pre-need services and coffin manufacturing. In the
financial year that ended March 31, 2024, OGF generated revenue of
EUR630 million and company-reported EBITDA of EUR142 million,
including IFRS16 (based on preliminary data). Since 2017, OGF is
majority-owned by OTPP (around 97%), with the remaining shares
owned by the company's management and employees.
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G E R M A N Y
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E-MAC DE 2006-I: Fitch Affirms 'CCsf' Rating on Two Tranches
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Fitch Ratings has affirmed E-MAC DE 2005-I B.V., E-MAC DE 2006-I
B.V. and E-MAC DE 2006-II B.V.'s notes, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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E-MAC DE 2006-I B.V
Class B XS0257590876 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C XS0257591338 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Class D XS0257592062 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
Class E XS0257592575 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
E-MAC DE 2005-I B.V.
Class C XS0221902538 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class D XS0221903429 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Class E XS0221904237 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
E-MAC DE 2006-II B.V.
Class C XS0276934667 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class D XS0276935045 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
Class E XS0276936019 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
The transactions are true-sale securitisations of German
residential mortgage loans originated by GMAC-RFC Bank GmbH. Adaxio
AMC GmbH is the transactions' current servicer and the successor to
GMAC-RFC Bank GmbH.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Counterparty Exposure Caps Ratings: The liquidity facilities of
2005-I and 2006-I remain fully drawn by the issuers. The drawn
amounts are held at the issuers' transaction account banks. For
2006-I, there are no rating constraints from the drawn facility due
to lower spreads payable on the 'AAAsf' rated notes and a short
risk horizon as Fitch expects these notes to be paid in full within
the next 12 months, reducing the issuer's dependence on the
facility to cover its expenses.
For 2005-I's class C notes, Fitch has maintained the rating cap at
ABN AMRO Bank N.V.'s deposit rating (A+) because of a higher
reliance on the facility to cover expenses and the notes' longer
risk horizon. Changes in the bank's ratings will directly affect
the notes' rating.
Excessive Reliance on Liquidity Facility: 2006-II's liquidity
facility has not been drawn as the rating of its provider, NatWest
Markets Plc (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR): A+/Stable),
fulfils the documented rating requirements. However, Fitch has
capped the class C notes' rating at the facility provider's
Long-Term IDR because Fitch believes that there is excessive
reliance on the facility to make interest payments.
Unsecured Recoveries Cover High Costs: The transactions have
separate waterfalls with no principal borrowing to cover fees and
expenses or note interest. The available interest funds contain
significant unsecured recoveries, helping cover the high fees and
expenses. The swap provides some support to cover rising (in
relative terms) transactions costs. Fitch assumes fees of
EUR300,000 plus 0.5% of the collateral balance annually, which is
above typical fees. The development of senior fees and expenses
relative to available interest funds, and most importantly
unsecured recoveries, is crucial for interest payments on the now
most senior notes.
Junior Notes Undercollateralised: As a result of large losses to
date, 2005-I's class E notes and 2006-I's and 2006-II's class D and
E notes are no longer fully backed by performing assets. 2005-I's
class D notes and 2006-I's class C notes are not yet
under-collateralised, but credit enhancement is well below its
expected losses and available excess spread remains limited. These
ratings have been affirmed at 'CCCsf' and below to reflect the high
likelihood of principal losses.
Credit Enhancement Trends: The transactions are amortising
sequentially and Fitch does not expect a switch to pro-rata given
the severe principal deficiency ledgers (PDL), arrears and reserve
fund trigger breaches. 2006-I and 2006-II's class A notes were
repaid in full in August 2020 and 2005-I's class A notes in 2018
and class B notes in February 2022. Most recently, 2006-II's class
B notes were paid in full in August 2023.
Relative credit enhancement for the outstanding most senior notes
has been increasing since its last review. Principal losses for
2005-I's class C notes, 2006-1's class B notes and 2006-II's class
C notes are less of a risk. Ratings are instead dominated by risks
to the coverage of expenses and note interest.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
For 2005-I's class C notes, a downgrade of the transaction account
bank's deposit rating would result in a downgrade of the notes'
rating as it is capped at the transaction account bank's rating.
For 2006-II's class C notes, a downgrade of the liquidity facility
provider's Long-Term IDR would result in a downgrade of the notes'
rating as it is capped at the liquidity facility provider's
rating.
Higher fees, expenses and swap costs or lower income from the asset
portfolio including unsecured recoveries could result in a
downgrade of the notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
For 2005-I's class C notes, an upgrade of the transaction account
bank's deposit rating would result in an upgrade of the notes'
rating as it is capped at the transaction account bank's rating.
For 2006-II's class C notes, an upgrade of the liquidity facility
provider's Long-Term IDR would result in an upgrade of the notes'
rating as it is capped at the liquidity facility provider's
rating.
Increasing excess spread in combination with low credit losses
could reduce existing PDL entries, positively impacting the ratings
of junior notes rated 'CCCsf' and below.
CRITERIA VARIATION
Fitch continues to apply haircuts of 50% for each property value,
which is a variation from the European RMBS Rating Criteria. This
aims at aligning the assumed recovery rates with recoveries
observed and increases assumed losses. However, as new credit
losses are having a limited impact on ratings as opposed to
cost-income dynamics in the interest waterfall, Fitch sees no
direct impact on ratings.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. Fitch has not reviewed the results of
any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pools ahead of the transactions' initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transactions over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
E-MAC DE 2005-I B.V., E-MAC DE 2006-I B.V and E-MAC DE 2006-II B.V.
have ESG Relevance Scores of '4' for Transaction Parties &
Operational Risk due to weaker underwriting standards applied by
the originator that have manifested in weaker-than-market
performance of the asset portfolio and reflected in originator
adjustments to the foreclosure frequency, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
MOSEL BIDCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR & Alters Outlook to Stable
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Moody's Ratings affirmed the B2 long-term corporate family rating
of Mosel Bidco AG (Mosel Bidco or the company), the holding company
of German software provider Software AG (SAG). At the same time,
Moody's affirmed the B2-PD probability of default rating and the B2
ratings of the company's EUR1,000 million equivalent senior secured
term loan B (split in EUR and USD tranches) and EUR119 million
senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF). The outlook was
changed to stable from positive.
"The rating action reflects the change in the company's business
profile following the divestment of its high growth assets
webMethods and StreamSets as well as TrendMiner, leading to higher
reliance on the company's legacy product portfolio, which Moody's
expect to decline over time" says Dirk Goedde, a Moody's Ratings
Vice President Senior Analyst and lead analyst of Mosel Bidco AG.
"While the funds from the divestments significantly boost the
company's liquidity position, Moody's expect the company to take
actions leading to a capital structure in line with previous
expectations. Considering the lower than expected growth prospects,
smaller scale, and reduced product diversity of the remaining
business, as well as uncertainties on sustainability of margins,
Moody's changed the outlook to stable from positive."
RATINGS RATIONALE
The recent closing of the divestments to International Business
Machines Corporation (A3 negative) lead to a meaningful change in
the company, including scale of less than 50% compared to the
previous setup. Although the company's profitability is expected to
benefit in short-term because the divested assets were highly
margin dilutive, Moody's see limited growth prospects under the new
perimeter given the maturity of the company's remaining A&N
segment. Nevertheless, the company's second reporting segment,
Digital Business Products (DBP), consists of three assets that w
Moody's expect to grow revenues in high-single digits in percentage
terms. Moody's continue to expect the company to execute its
restructuring programme, although it leads to some upfront costs.
Over time, Moody's see a heightened risk of lower retention rates
in the A&N segment stemming from viable alternatives to its legacy
database management offering or from ongoing customer
consolidation.
Moody's expect allocation of divestment proceeds to some
combination of debt reduction, shareholder distributions, and
investments into new assets. Mosel Bidco AG's B2 CFR reflects its
high gross leverage estimated above 6.0x pro forma for the
divestment with an unchanged debt quantum, offset by the company's
highly stable software revenues with significant customer
stickiness, and Moody's expectations that the company will use a
portion of the substantial cash balance to repay debt. SAG's cost
reduction plans have the potential to significantly reduce leverage
and improve cash flow over the next two years. Free cash flow has
been negative in 2022 and 2023 from the accelerated shift towards
the subscription offering but Moody's expect positive free cash
flow generation after 2024. Moody's believe the company can grow
EBITDA under the new perimeter driven by price increases across
segments, new customers predominantly in the DBP segment and cost
discipline, albeit at a low single digit percentage rate.
The credit profile benefits from SAG's entrenched position as
provider of mission critical services to a broad range of
high-quality customers and particular strength with its highly
profitable database management software.
Apart from the use of the proceeds from the divestments, Moody's do
not anticipate that SAG will implement dividend payouts or continue
to make debt-funded acquisitions which could delay deleveraging
plans. However, the credit facilities have significant flexibility
to upsize the facilities which could potentially be used to fund
acquisitions or distributions to shareholders.
OUTLOOK
The outlook of Mosel Bidco AG is stable. It reflects expectations
for the company to repay debt with some of the substantial cash
balance, as well as the group's sticky customer base leading to
meaningful visibility on revenue generation, albeit reduced growth
prospects. The stable outlook also assumes that SAG's customer
churn rates remain in the mid-single digits in percentage terms and
that the company will maintain an adequate liquidity position post
any type of transaction.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could consider a positive rating action, should the company
(1) achieve and sustain Moody's adjusted gross debt to EBITDA well
below 5.0x, (2) improve free cash flow generation such that FCF to
debt maintained at or above 10%, and (3) maintain a solid interest
coverage such that (EBITDA – capex) to Interest remains
consistently above 3.0x. A positive rating action would also
require expectations for the company to sustain metrics at these
improved levels. Moody's also expect that the company executes on
the planned cost improvement program whilst not executing
debt-funded acquisitions that significantly increase leverage and
maintaining a good liquidity.
Conversely, the ratings would come under negative pressure if: (1)
FCF/debt sustained below 5%; (2) Moody's adjusted gross debt to
EBITDA remains above 6.0x; or (3) (EBITDA – capex) to Interest
falling below 2.0x, or (4) evidence of increasing competition that
result in an increase of customer churn rates, or (5) the company's
liquidity position deteriorates.
LIQUIDITY
SAG has an very good liquidity profile. Its cash sources currently
include cash on balance of more than EUR2.0 billion and a fully
undrawn RCF of EUR119 million issued by Mosel Bidco. These cash
sources exceed SAG's cash requirements for working capital
investments, capital expenditures (including lease payment),
assumed bolt on acquisitions, and a working cash requirement.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
SAG's capital structure consists of EUR1,000 million equivalent
senior secured term loan B and an EUR119 million RCF, both borrowed
by holding company Mosel Bidco AG. The company also has operating
liabilities that rank in line with the financial debt given the
guarantor concept.
Given the weak security, which only consists of share pledges,
intercompany receivables, and material bank accounts, Moody's treat
the senior secured facilities being unsecured and in line with
trade receivable and the other non-debt liabilities.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
SAG's governance risks arise from the high leverage as a result of
the leveraged buy-out by private equity owner Silver Lake
Partners.
In addition, social risks stem from potential cybersecurity
breaches and access to skilled talent, only partially offset by
strong growth in demand for customer and employee experience
management software and systems. Especially for the legacy Natural
programming language, Moody's see risk that the required talent to
fulfill the 2050+ customer promise can lead to higher costs.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Software
published in June 2022.
COMPANY PROFILE
Software AG (SAG), founded in 1969, is a Darmstadt based software
company providing essential infrastructure software for
enterprises. SAG operates across two business segments. Digital
Business Platform (DBP) segment develops products related to API
management, IoT, and business transformation. Adabas and Natural
(A&N) are SAG's mainframe database management product and its
accompanying development language respectively. The company is
majority owned by Silver Lake since 2023.
PONY SA 2024-1: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to EUR5.3MM Cl. F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned the following definitive ratings to
Notes issued by Pony S.A., Compartment German Auto Loans 2024-1:
EUR633.4M Class A Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR14M Class B Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR15.8M Class C Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned A1 (sf)
EUR14.7M Class D Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned A3 (sf)
EUR14.7M Class E Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR5.3M Class F Floating Rate Notes due January 2033, Definitive
Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned any rating to EUR2.1M Class G Floating
Rate Notes due January 2033.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Notes are backed by a 6-month revolving pool of German auto
loans originated by Hyundai Capital Bank Europe GmbH ("HCBE") (NR).
HCBE is 51% owned by Santander Consumer Bank AG (A2/P-1 Bank
Deposits; A1(cr)/ P-1(cr)) and 49% owned by Hyundai Capital
Services, Inc. (A3 LT Issuer Rating). This is the third issuance of
HCBE.
The portfolio of assets amounts to approximately EUR700 million as
of June 30, 2024 pool cut-off date. The cash reserve will be funded
to 1.0% of the Classes A to F Notes balance at closing and the
initial total credit enhancement for the Class A Notes will be
10.5%.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, the structural features of the transaction and its legal
integrity.
Moody's consider that the transaction benefits from the transaction
benefits from various credit strengths such as a granular portfolio
and additional credit enhancement. However, Moody's note that the
transaction features some credit weaknesses, such as (i) the
percentage of balloon loans in the pool (86.96% of the total
outstanding loans are balloon loans), (ii) an unrated servicer,
(iii) 6-month revolving structure which could increase performance
volatility of the underlying portfolio, and (iv) a complex
structure including interest deferral triggers for juniors Notes
and pro-rata principal payments. Various mitigants have been
included in the transaction structure such as a back-up servicer
facilitator which is obliged to appoint a back-up servicer if
certain triggers are breached, as well as performance triggers
which will stop the revolving period or the pro-rata amortization.
The portfolio of underlying assets was distributed through dealers
to private individuals (85.1%) and commercial borrowers (14.9%) to
finance the purchase of new (75.4%) and used (24.6%) cars. As of
June 30, 2024, the portfolio consists of 35,105 auto finance
contracts to 34,640 borrowers with a weighted average seasoning of
12.6 months. The contracts have equal instalments during the life
of the contract and a larger balloon payment at maturity. On
average, the balloon instalment portion accounts for 62.5% of the
total principal of balloon contracts and 54.4% of the entire
portfolio cash flows.
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected defaults of
1.6%, expected recoveries of 40% and Aaa portfolio credit
enhancement ("PCE") of 10% related to borrower receivables. The
expected defaults and recoveries capture Moody's expectations of
performance considering the current economic outlook, while the PCE
captures the loss Moody's expect the portfolio to suffer in the
event of a severe recession scenario. Expected defaults and PCE are
parameters used by Moody's Ratings to calibrate its lognormal
portfolio loss distribution curve and to associate a probability
with each potential future loss scenario in the cash flow model to
rate Auto ABS.
Portfolio expected defaults of 1.6% are lower than the EMEA Auto
ABS average and are based on Moody's assessment of the lifetime
expectation for the pool taking into account: (i) historical
performance of the book of the originator, (ii) benchmark
transactions, and (iii) other qualitative considerations, such as
the high balloon component of the portfolio.
Portfolio expected recoveries of 40% are in line with the EMEA Auto
ABS average and are based on Moody's assessment of the lifetime
expectation for the pool taking into account: (i) historical
performance of the originator's book, (ii) benchmark transactions,
and (iii) other qualitative considerations.
PCE of 10% is in line with the EMEA Auto ABS average and is based
on Moody's assessment of the pool which is mainly driven by: (i)
the exposure to balloon payments despite considering the strength
of the originator, (ii) the relative ranking to originator peers in
the EMEA market, and (iii) the weighted average current
loan-to-value of 87.06% which is in line with the sector average.
The PCE level of 10% results in an implied coefficient of variation
("CoV") of 73.89%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Auto Loan- and Lease-Backed ABS" published in
November 2023.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings of the Notes
include significantly better than expected performance of the pool
together with an increase in credit enhancement of Notes.
Factors that would lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (i)
increased counterparty risk leading to potential operational risk
of (a) servicing or cash management interruptions and (b) the risk
of increased swap linkage due to a downgrade of a currency swap
counterparty ratings; and (ii) economic conditions being worse than
forecast resulting in higher arrears and losses.
RENK GROUP: S&P Upgrades ICR to 'BB-' on Higher Defense Exposure
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on
RENK Group AG (RENK)to 'BB-' from 'B+' and then withdrew the
rating.
S&P said, "We assigned a 'BB-' long-term issuer credit rating to
RENK Group AG and a 'BB-' issue rating to the new term loan B (TLB)
issued by RENK Group AG. The '3' recovery rating on the facility
indicates our expectation of meaningful recovery prospects (50-70%;
rounded estimate: 65%) in the event of a default.
"The positive outlook indicates the possibility of an upgrade if
Triton further meaningfully reduces its ownership stake in RENK
while the group continues to pursue a conservative financial
policy, including our adjusted debt to EBITDA below 3x and adjusted
free operating cash flow to debt of about 15%."
RENK's business position has strengthened through higher exposure
to the defense sector, revenue base increase, further geographic
diversification, and expansion of production facilities. Since the
acquisition by Triton in 2020, RENK's revenue exposure to the
defense sector has grown to 70% in 2023 from 55%, and we expect the
share of margin-accretive defense revenue to further increase in
2024-2025. S&P said, "In our view, the nature of the defense
sector, with long-lived contracts and long-term relationships with
customers, provides more revenue stability and visibility than the
group's non-defense-related end markets. RENK's annual revenue base
has nearly doubled, reaching EUR926 million in 2023 versus EUR559
million in 2019 through a mix of organic and inorganic growth. The
group's acquisitive strategy in North America has contributed to a
better geographic diversification, with 23% of 2023 revenue from
North America (12% in 2019), 27% from Germany (29%), 29% from the
rest of Europe (33%), 20% from Asia (24%), and the remainder from
other countries. Likewise, RENK's production facilities have
doubled to 14 as of the first quarter of 2024, with a presence in
nine countries (five in 2020). In addition, the group's business
profile continues to be supported by the leading positions in
vehicle transmissions, navy gearboxes, and slide e-bearings. Our
view on the business risk assessment is, however, partly offset by
the exposure to the more volatile and cyclical civilian sector (30%
of revenue in 2023), with the energy end market (oil and gas and
new energy) accounting for 50% of the group's non-defense-related
revenue. Furthermore, we consider RENK as a tier 2 or 3 supplier,
and, despite our expectation that the group will expand its revenue
base, it still has limited scale compared with other peers."
The alignment of RENK's capabilities with global defense priorities
will continue to drive revenue and profitability growth in 2024 and
2025. Ongoing global conflicts and tensions have highlighted the
need for governments to increase their defense spending, supporting
important long-term programs to preserve sovereign security and
replenish their stocks after years of underinvestment. RENK is well
positioned to take advantage of these developments. S&P said, "In
this context, we forecast revenue will grow annually by about 12%
in 2024 and 2025, from EUR926 million in 2023. Revenue expansion
will be underpinned by the strong order backlog, which accounted
for 4.8x (including frame and soft order backlogs) of annual
revenue or around EUR4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024. We
estimate that growth will be mainly driven by the Vehicle Mobility
Solutions and the Marine and Industry divisions, which account for
around 71.5% and 25%, respectively, of the total order backlog. We
expect growth in the Vehicle Mobility Solutions division to be
supported by trends observed in the current conflicts, which have
underlined the relevance of strong land combat systems, and by
RENK's participation in important programs, such as the Main Ground
Combat System and the Leopard II, for which the group is a key
supplier. Similarly, we forecast tensions between China and Taiwan
to underpin demand in the Navy end market, where the group is a
supplier for around 62 platform types." Altogether, this will
expand RENK's installed base (which exceeds 180,000 platforms in
Land and 220 in Navy), enabling the penetration of its aftermarket
services, which accounted for 36% in first-quarter 2024.
S&P said, "We forecast RENK will generate S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of about EUR201 million in 2024 and about
EUR228 million in 2025, from EUR168 million in 2023, with margins
climbing to about 19.4% in 2024 and 19.7% in 2025, from 18.2% in
2023. RENK's EBITDA margins will be supported by operating leverage
on the back of high volumes, positive mix effects from the
margin-accretive orders in the defense sector (particularly in
Vehicle Mobility Solutions and in the Navy end market) and
higher-margin aftermarket services, operational improvements, and
procurement saving measures.
"We expect the increase in EBITDA to translate into stronger credit
metrics, with positive free operating cash flow (FOCF) partly
offset by working capital outflows and discretionary cash flow
(DCF) partly offset by dividend distributions.We think the stronger
EBITDA will lead to an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF of roughly
EUR84 million in 2024 and EUR113 million in 2025, from EUR22
million in 2023. FOCF will be partly counterbalanced by expected
working capital requirements of EUR25 million-EUR30 million in 2024
and EUR10 million-EUR20 million in 2025. We expect capital
expenditures (capex) to remain at 3% of revenue over 2024-2025, as
in 2023. As a result, we forecast FOCF to debt of about 16% in 2024
and 21% in 2025. RENK's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted DCF will be
partly offset by the announced dividend distributions of EUR30
million in 2024 and our forecast of around EUR50 million for 2025.
"RENK's deleveraging will be driven by improved profitability.In
February 2024, RENK replaced its EUR520 million fixed-rate senior
secured notes maturing in 2025 with a EUR525 million floating rate
TLB maturing in 2029. We consider this refinancing will ease the
group's maturity profile and provide further financial flexibility.
We view positively that about two-thirds of this facility is hedged
against changes in market interest rates for a period of three
years. S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt in 2024 and 2025 now
includes EUR525 million reported debt, EUR8.5 million reported
lease liabilities, and EUR3.1 million of unfunded pension
obligations. We expect leverage to be at 2.7x in 2024 and 2.4x in
2025, from 3.2x in 2023. We do not deduct surplus cash from debt
because the group is still majority owned by a financial sponsor.
"Despite the completion of the IPO, we continue to see RENK's
financial sponsor ownership as a constraint to the rating.RENK's
shareholder structure was further diversified following the
completion of the IPO process, with the financial sponsor Triton
having now reduced its share ownership to approximately 51.9%. The
free float now accounts for close to 34.4% of the share capital,
with the residual 13.7% owned by KNDS (6.7%), RENK's management
through Rebecca Management SARL (4.2%), and Janus Henderson (2.9%).
However, we note that Triton still owns more than 40% of the
group's shares, underpinning our assessment of RENK as a financial
sponsor-owned entity, which caps our financial risk profile
assessment."
The positive outlook indicates the possibility of an upgrade if
Triton further meaningfully reduces its ownership stake in RENK,
the group continues to pursue a conservative financial policy, and
is likely to benefit from solid end-market demand.
S&P said, "We could revise the outlook to stable if RENK's revenue
growth prospects, profitability, or cash flow performance were to
deteriorate due to declining end-market demand, or supply chain
problems, resulting in an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin
below 16%.
"Although not expected, we could lower the rating if the group were
to pursue a more aggressive dividend or M&A policy resulting in an
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio sustainably above
4x and adjusted FOCF to debt of about 5%."
S&P could raise the rating in the next 12 months if:
-- Triton further meaningfully reduces its ownership in RENK;
-- S&P continues to expect solid revenue growth prospects and an
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin sustainably above 18%;
and
-- RENK maintains a conservative financial policy, including an
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio below 3x, and
demonstrates solid FOCF, with an adjusted FOCF to debt ratio of
about 15%.
S&P said, "Governance factors are a moderately negative
consideration in our credit rating analysis of RENK, as is our
opinion for most rated entities owned by private-equity sponsors.
We believe that this points to corporate decision-making that could
prioritize the interests of the controlling owners. This also
reflects the generally finite holding periods and a focus on
maximizing shareholder returns."
=============
I R E L A N D
=============
AVOCA CLO XIV: S&P Raises Class E-R Notes Rating to 'BB+ (sf)'
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its credit ratings on Avoca CLO XIV DAC's
class B-1-R and B-2-R notes to 'AAA (sf)' from 'AA (sf)', class
C-1-R and C-2-R notes to 'AA (sf)' from 'A (sf)', class D-R notes
to 'A (sf)' from 'BBB (sf)', and class E-R notes to 'BB+ (sf)' from
'BB (sf)'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'AAA (sf)' ratings on
the class A-1-R and A-2-R notes, and S&P's 'B- (sf)' rating on the
class F-R notes.
Avoca CLO XIV is a cash flow CLO transaction that securitizes
leverage loans and is managed by KKR Credit Advisors (Ireland).
S&P said, "The rating actions follow the application of our
relevant criteria and our credit and cash flow analysis of the
transaction based on the May 2024 trustee report (although we have
also considered more recent information received in the July 2024
payment report)."
Since S&P assigned ratings to these notes in November 2017:
-- The pool's credit quality has improved in terms of both S&P's
default and recovery assumptions.
-- The portfolio's weighted-average life has decreased to 3.22
years from 6.28 years.
-- The percentage of 'CCC' rated assets has increased to 2.99%
from 5.71%.
Table 1
Transaction key metrics
AS OF MAY 2024
SPWARF 2,826.58
Default rate dispersion 621.70
Weighted-average life (years) 3.51
Obligor diversity measure 102.64
Industry diversity measure 20.53
Regional diversity measure 1.31
Total collateral amount (mil. EUR)* 415.31
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0.00
Number of performing obligors 163
Portfolio weighted-average rating B
'AAA' SDR (%) 58.42
'AAA' WARR (%) 36.94
*Performing assets plus cash and expected recoveries on defaulted
assets.
SPWARF--S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor.
SDR--scenario default rate.
WARR--Weighted-average recovery rate.
On the cash flow side:
-- The reinvestment period ended in January 2022. The class A-1-R
and A-2-R notes have deleveraged by more than EUR114 million and
EUR10 million respectively since then, although more than EUR38
million of the class A-1-R notes' amortization occurred on the most
recent interest payment date.
-- No class of notes is deferring interest.
All coverage tests are passing as of the July 2024 payment report.
Table 2
Credit analysis results
CURRENT AMOUNT CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
AS OF JULY 2024 AS OF MARCH 2024 (%) CREDIT
CLASS (MIL. EUR) (BASED ON JANUARY 2024 ENHANCEMENT
TRUSTEE REPORT) AT CLOSING (%)
A-1-R 160.06 47.79 40.12
A-2-R 14.58 47.79 40.12
B-1-R 16.30 32.19 27.16
B-2-R 48.50 32.19 27.16
C-1-R 18.00 24.25 20.56
C-2-R 15.00 24.25 20.56
D-R 25.00 18.23 15.56
E-R 25.70 12.04 10.42
F-R 14.80 8.47 7.46
Sub 45.80 N/A N/A
Credit enhancement = [Performing balance + cash balance + recovery
on defaulted obligations (if any) – tranche balance (including
tranche balance of all senior tranches)]/ [Performing balance +
cash balance + recovery on defaulted obligations (if any)].
N/A--Not applicable.
In S&P's view, the portfolio is diversified across obligors,
industries, and asset characteristics.
S&P said, "Considering the improved scenario default rates and
higher available credit enhancement, we raised our ratings on the
class B-1-R to E-R notes as the available credit enhancement is now
commensurate with higher stress levels. At the same time, we
affirmed our ratings on the class A-1-R, A-2-R, and F-R notes.
"Our cash flow analysis indicated higher ratings than those
currently assigned for the class B-1-R to F-R notes. However, we
considered the considerable portion of senior notes outstanding and
the current macroeconomic conditions.
"In our view, the portfolio is granular, and well-diversified
across obligors, industries, and asset characteristics compared to
other CLO transactions we have recently rated. Hence, we have not
performed any additional scenario analysis.
"Counterparty, operational, and legal risks are adequately
mitigated in line with our criteria.
"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk to
be limited at the assigned ratings, as the exposure to individual
sovereigns does not exceed the diversification thresholds outlined
in our criteria."
JAMESTOWN RESIDENTIAL 2024-1: S&P Assigns B (sf) Rating to G Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings has assigned credit ratings to Jamestown
Residential 2024-1 DAC's class A to G-Dfrd Irish RMBS notes. At
closing, the transaction also issued unrated class Z-Dfrd, R-Dfrd,
X1, and X2-Dfrd notes.
Jamestown Residential 2024-1 is a static RMBS transaction that
securitizes a EUR702 million portfolio of performing and
reperforming owner-occupied and buy-to-let mortgage loans secured
over residential properties in Ireland.
This securitization is a refinancing of Jamestown Residential
2021-1 DAC and Mulcair Securities No.2 DAC, which S&P rated.
Jamestown Residential 2021-1 is a purchased portfolio, which was
previously securitized in Jepson Residential 2019-1 DAC. Bank of
Scotland (Ireland) Ltd., Nua Mortgages Ltd., and Start Mortgages
DAC originated the loans, mostly between 2005 and 2008. The loans
in Mulcair Securities No.2 DAC were originated by the Bank of
Ireland, ICS Building Society, and Bank of Ireland Mortgage Bank.
The combined portfolio cutoff date is June 30, 2024. Of the loans
in the pool, 93.31% pay floating rates of interest and 46.81% have
interest-only repayments. Arrears in the portfolio are increasing,
reflecting higher repayments due to rising interest rates. Arrears
exceeding three months are at 25.4%. Pepper Finance Corporation
(Ireland) DAC and The Bank of Ireland, the administrators and legal
title holders, are responsible for day-to-day servicing.
S&P said, "Our rating on the class A notes addresses the timely
payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal. Our
ratings on the class B-Dfrd to G-Dfrd notes address the ultimate
payment of interest and principal. Our ratings also address timely
receipt of interest on all the rated notes other than class A notes
when they become the most senior outstanding notes. The timely
payment of interest on the class A notes is supported by the
liquidity reserve fund, which was fully funded at closing to its
required level of 0.50% of the class A notes' closing balance. The
class A and B-Dfrd to G-Dfrd notes benefit from a general reserve
fund, which was fully funded at closing to its required level of
2.00% of the portfolio balance at closing. Furthermore, the
transaction benefits from the ability to use principal to cover
certain senior items.
"We have considered the transaction's resilience in case of
additional stresses, such as increased defaults, to determine our
forward-looking view. We also considered the notes' ability to
withstand delayed recoveries on defaulted assets.
"There are no rating constraints in the transaction under our
counterparty, operational risk, or structured finance sovereign
risk criteria. We consider the issuer to be bankruptcy remote."
Jamestown Residential 2024-1 is a static RMBS transaction that
securitizes a portfolio of performing and reperforming
owner-occupied and buy-to-let mortgage loans secured over
residential properties in Ireland.
Ratings
CLASS RATING* CLASS SIZE (EUR)
A AAA (sf) 505,523,000
B-Dfrd AA (sf) 36,510,000
C-Dfrd A (sf) 31,595,000
D-Dfrd BBB (sf) 12,287,000
E-Dfrd BB (sf) 14,042,000
F-Dfrd B+ (sf) 3,159,000
G-Dfrd B (sf) 2,106,000
Z-Dfrd NR 16,569,000
R-Dfrd NR 96,891,000
X1 NR 100,000
X2-Dfrd NR 2,000,000
*S&P's ratings address timely receipt of interest and ultimate
repayment of principal on the class A notes and the ultimate
payment of interest and principal on the other rated notes. Our
ratings also address timely receipt of interest on all the rated
notes other than class A notes when they become the most senior
outstanding notes.
Dfrd--Deferrable.
3mE--Three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
PALMER SQUARE 2024-2: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating to Cl. F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Palmer Square European CLO 2024-2 DAC
expecting ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
PALMER SQUARE EUROPEAN
CLO 2024-2 DAC
A-Loan LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
A-Notes XS2849653618 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B XS2849653881 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C XS2849654269 LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D XS2849654343 LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E XS2849654772 LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F XS2849654939 LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Subordinated notes
XS2849655076 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
Palmer Square European CLO 2024-2 DAC is a securitisation of mainly
senior secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of
senior unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield
bonds. Note proceeds will be used to fund a portfolio with a target
par of EUR400 million. The portfolio will be actively managed by
Palmer Square Europe Capital Management LLC. The CLO will have a
4.6-year reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted average life
(WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch places the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor of the identified portfolio is 23.7.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio will comprise senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 64.2%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction will have a
concentration limit for the 10 largest obligors of 20%. The
transaction will also include various concentration limits,
including the maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries in the portfolio at 40%. These covenants ensure the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction will have a
4.6-year reinvestment period, which is governed by reinvestment
criteria that are similar to those of other European transactions.
Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim
of testing the robustness of the transaction structure against its
covenants and portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the Fitch-stressed
portfolio analysis was reduced by 12 months. This is to account for
the strict reinvestment conditions envisaged after the reinvestment
period. These include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch
'CCC' maximum limit after reinvestment and a WAL covenant that
progressively steps down over time after the end of the
reinvestment period. In Fitch's opinion, these conditions would
reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during the
stress period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the identified portfolio would have no impact on the notes.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class B, D and E notes have a
rating cushion of two notches and the class C and F notes of four
notches. The class A notes have no rating cushion.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
across all ratings and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings
of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to
four notches for the notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
increase in the RRR across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed
portfolio would lead to upgrades of up to three notches, except for
the 'AAAsf' rated notes.
During the reinvestment period, based on the Fitch-stressed
portfolio, upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio
credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, meaning the notes
are able to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
transaction's remaining life. After the end of the reinvestment
period, upgrades may occur on stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Palmer Square
European CLO 9 DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG
relevance scores in connection with the credit rating of a
transaction, programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose
in the key rating drivers any ESG factor which has a significant
impact on the rating on an individual basis.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
BELVEDERE SPV: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR320MM Cl. A Notes to Caa2
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the rating of the Class A notes in
Belvedere SPV S.R.L. This downgrade reflects lower than anticipated
cash-flows generated from the recovery process on the
non-performing loans (NPLs) and under-hedging.
EUR320M Class A Notes, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Sep
7, 2023 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of Class A notes is prompted by lower than
anticipated cash-flows generated from the recovery process on the
NPLs and under-hedging.
Lower than anticipated cash-flows generated from the recovery
process on the NPLs:
The portfolio is serviced by Prelios Credit Servicing S.p.A.
("PRECS"; unrated) for 67.6% of the Gross Book Value ("GBV") and by
Bayview Italia S.r.l. ("BVI", unrated) for the remaining portion,
as of May 2024. 75% of the portfolio serviced by PRECSs is
unsecured, according to the servicer's loan classification.
There has been a significant reduction of cashflows in the last
three collection periods and the ratio of class A amortization to
gross collections has dropped materially in June and December 2023
and remained stable at a low level in June 2024 payment date,
affected by under-hedging and fixed costs which have more weight
when collections are lower. In Moody's assessment, Moody's took
into account the lengthy recovery process and the potential for
improvement or deterioration in collections during the long period
of time between and final legal maturity.
As of the end of the latest Collection Period (May 2024), the
Cumulative Collection Ratio, based on collections net of legal and
procedural costs, stood at 26.99% for PRECS and 58.51% for BVI. On
an aggregate level the Cumulative Collection Ratio stood at 44.75%,
down from 45.69% at the time of last rating action on September
2023, meaning that current collections levels are significantly
lower than anticipated in the original Business Plan projections.
Indeed, through the collection period ending in May 2024, 11
collection periods since closing, aggregate cumulative net
collections were EUR183.75million versus original business plans
expectations of EUR410.66 million. In terms of the Cumulative
Collections Ratio, the transaction has underperformed the
servicers' original expectations since closing, with the gap
between actual and servicers' expected collections increasing over
time but relatively stable in recent collection periods given less
demanding projections compared to initial periods. Regarding
Updated Business Plans, latest approved for BVI was that of 2021
cut-off and none was approved in the case of PRECS.
The pool still exhibits a geographical concentration in the
northern regions of Italy, in particular in the Lombardy region
(24.77% of total GBV serviced by PRECS and 26.24% for the BVI
part).
Out of the approximately EUR415.5 million reduction of GBV since
closing, principal payments to Class A have been around EUR102.05
million. The principal payment to Class A was EUR1.35 million in
the June 2024 payment date, compared to the currently outstanding
amount of Class A at EUR217.95 million.
The advance rate, i.e. the ratio between Class A notes balance and
the outstanding gross book value of the backing portfolio, stood at
10.26% as of June 2024, slightly up from 10.21% as of the last
rating action. While this advance rate is low compared to other
Italian NPL transactions in the same rating category, the rate of
its decline has been slow compared to its peers and in line with
lower rated transactions.
Unlike other rated Italian NPLs transactions, Belvedere does not
benefit from GACS guarantee and Class B interest payments are
always junior to Class A notes principal.
Under-hedging:
The transaction benefits from two interest rate caps referenced to
the 6-months Euribor rate, split equally between J.P. Morgan SE
(Aa1(cr)/P-1(cr)) and BNP Paribas (Aa3(cr)/P-1(cr)), which are
acting as the cap counterparties. Under the cap agreement, from
June 2019 to December 2029, the SPV receives the difference, if
positive, between the six-months Euribor and 0.50%.
The notional of the interest rate cap, determined at closing, was
initially equal to EUR305.5 million in June 2019 and then
decreasing in consideration of the anticipation of the senior
notes' amortization based on a pre-defined schedule. Given the
Class A notes have so far amortised at a slower pace than the
scheduled notional amount set out in the cap agreement, a
significant portion of the outstanding notes is unhedged. Scheduled
notional for the next period is EUR110.20 million while Class A
notes outstanding balance stands at EUR217.95 million and Moody's
expect further deterioration in hedging coverage.
NPL transactions' cash flows depend on the timing and amount of
collections. Due to the current economic environment, Moody's have
considered additional stresses in its analysis, including a 6
months delay in the recovery timing.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Non-performing
and Re-performing Loan Securitizations" published in April 2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
rating include: (1) the recovery process of the non-performing
loans producing significantly higher cash-flows in a shorter time
frame than expected; (2) improvements in the credit quality of the
transaction counterparties; and (3) a decrease in sovereign risk.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
rating include: (1) significantly lower or slower cash-flows
generated from the recovery process on the non-performing loans due
to either a longer time for the courts to process the foreclosures
and bankruptcies, a change in economic conditions from Moody's
central scenario forecast or idiosyncratic performance factors. For
instance, should economic conditions be worse than forecasted and
the sale of the properties generate less cash-flows for the issuer
or take a longer time to sell the properties, all these factors
could result in a downgrade of the ratings; (2) deterioration in
the credit quality of the transaction counterparties; and (3)
increase in sovereign risk.
DECO 2019-VIVALDI: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class D Notes to 'BB-sf'
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Deco 2019 - Vivaldi S.r.l.'s class B, C
and D notes and affirmed the class A notes, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Deco 2019 - Vivaldi
S.r.l.
A IT0005372435 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
B IT0005372450 LT BBB+sf Upgrade BB+sf
C IT0005372468 LT BB+sf Upgrade CCCsf
D IT0005372476 LT BB-sf Upgrade CCCsf
The rating actions follow the completion of a consent solicitation
process on 18 June 2024 that resulted in the approval of certain
amendments to both underlying loans, including extending the loan
maturity by three years to 15 August 2027 (including renewing the
hedging with a strike of no more than 4%); partially repaying the
Franciacorta loan by EUR15.8 million and the Palmanova loan by
EUR7.6 million; establishing a cash trap and reserve mechanism; and
increasing the interest rate payable on the loans equivalent to 1%
on the class A to D notes.
The amendments provide the Vivaldi borrowers with more time to
conduct an orderly disposal of the portfolio. The legal final
maturity of the notes has not been extended, which has therefore
reduced the tail period to four years.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
The transaction is a 95% securitisation of two commercial mortgage
loans totalling EUR233.935 million to two Italian borrowers, both
sponsored by Blackstone funds. The loans are variable rate (with
variable margins) and each is secured on an Italian fashion retail
outlet village. The transaction benefits from a liquidity facility
of EUR10.5 million, which is available to cover interest on the
class A and B notes and amortises in line with their aggregate
balance.
The two loans are secured on established fashion outlets in
northern Italy. Franciacorta Outlet Village is 7km from the city of
Brescia in Lombardy, and comprises 186 retail units spanning across
36,803sq m. Palmanova Outlet Village is an open-air outlet located
in the municipality of Aiello di Friuli, in the province of Udine,
part of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region in the north-east of
Italy. It comprises 92 retail units across 22,204sq m.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Reduced Leverage: On the August 2024 payment date, the sponsor will
partially prepay both loans by around 10% (9.4% for Franciacorta
and 11.4% for Palmanova), bringing the weighted average (WA)
loan-to-value ratio down to 74%, from 82%, and increasing the WA
debt yield to 11% from 10%. In addition, cash trap reserves have
been put in place, pre-funded through a combination of further
equity contribution and existing reserves of EUR6.1 million (EUR3.0
million for Franciacorta and EUR3.1 million for Palmanova). These
reserves will also capture all rental receipts after debt service
(including additional loan interest), operating expenses and
capex.
Prepayment Constraints: With pro rata principal payment extended as
a result of the amendments, its analysis considers the risk that a
refinancing of Franciacorta could leave all noteholders exposed to
the weaker Palmanova loan, constraining the class A notes' rating.
Four-Year Tail Period: In some Italian courts, mortgage enforcement
can take substantially longer than four years, although timing is
typically shorter in the north, where these properties are located.
Fitch understands from transaction counsel that share security
provided in Luxembourg for both loans can allow for protective
enforcement (including by transfer of voting rights) to be
undertaken within four years, without compromising the defensive
attributes of Italian mortgages against unsecured creditors. Fitch
views this arrangement as consistent with ratings up to and
including the 'Asf' category, given the assets' locations and the
four-year tail period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Increase in vacancy and rental decline within the portfolio.
The change in model output that would apply with 10% market rent
haircut is as follows:
'A-sf' / 'BBB-sf' / 'BB-sf' / 'Bsf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stabilisation of investor sentiment coupled with improved portfolio
performance.
The change in model output that would apply with 1pp decrease in
cap rates is as follows:
'A+sf' / 'A-sf' / 'BBBsf' / 'BB+sf'
Key property assumptions (weighted by market value)
Depreciation: 10%
Applied estimated rental value: EUR28 million
Total market value: EUR285 million
'Bsf' WA cap rate: 7.32%
'Bsf' WA structural vacancy: 12.8%
'Bsf' WA rental value decline: 15.5%
'BBsf' WA cap rate: 7.5%
'BBsf' WA structural vacancy: 13.8%
'BBsf' WA rental value decline: 23.9%
'BBBsf' WA cap rate: 7.7%
'BBBsf' WA structural vacancy: 15.6%
'BBBsf' WA rental value decline: 32.3%
'Asf' WA cap rate: 7.8%
'Asf' WA structural vacancy: 16.87%
'Asf' WA rental value decline: 40.8%
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch reviewed the results of a
third party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information
and concluded that there were no findings that affected the rating
analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Deco 2019 - Vivaldi S.r.l. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality due to
uncertainty of the enforcement process in Italy, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
=================
L I T H U A N I A
=================
MAXIMA GRUPE: S&P Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed the 'BB+' long-term issuer credit
rating (ICR) and 'BB+' issue ratings on Lithuania-based Maxima
Grupe UAB.
The stable outlook reflects Maxima's earnings growth, resulting in
debt to EBITDA of about 2.0x-2.5x in the next 12-18 months and
positive FOCF largely covering dividend payments.
S&P said, "We affirmed our 'BB+' issue rating on Maxima Grupe's
senior unsecured notes due 2027 but imminent reduction in the share
of secured debt in the capital structure is a key to maintain that
rating level. In 2022, the group raised EUR240 million of senior
unsecured notes and in 2023 EUR100 million of bank facilities that
were secured by cash deposited in certain bank accounts to
refinance the then outstanding EUR300 million notes that were
repaid in September 2023. As of end-2023, the total of the group's
EUR520 million financial debt including accrued interest comprised
the EUR244 million unsecured notes (47%) and the EUR98 million bank
facilities both issued by the parent, Maxima Grupe; and EUR178
million of secured and unsecured debt issued by the operating
subsidiaries that are closer to the group's income-generating
assets and that we consider as ranking structurally ahead. Maxima
Grupe's bank facilities, that benefit from the bank accounts'
pledge, and total debt at subsidiaries (together EUR276 million)
account for the priority debt ratio of 53%. While this exceeds the
50% threshold, we derive the notching outcome as per our
methodology expecting that the group will reduce the priority ratio
in the next few months. This is mainly due to the mandatory debt
amortization at the operating subsidiary level with EUR66 million
due for repayment in 2024 and the group's ample liquidity. Maxima
has the means, supported by its solid cash flow profile and high
cash balance of EUR331 million, to reduce the share of secured debt
in the capital structure. However, if the priority ratio is not
reduced to below 50% by end-2024, we could downgrade the issue
rating on the senior unsecured notes by one notch."
In 2023, Maxima's operating performance exceeded our expectations
with growth driven by expansion in Poland and Bulgaria that keeps
leverage at about 2.2x.High like-for-likes sales of 10.4% and 65
net new store openings in 2023 support Maxima's trading
performance. At the same time, the easing of energy and fuel costs
as well as slower growth in its fixed costs, led to an improvement
in EBITDA margins by 110 basis points (bps) to 8.2% in 2023. S&P
said, "We expect annual revenue growth of more than 5% in the next
two years supported by 2%-3% like-for-like growth and similar
revenue contribution from about 90-100 store openings per year
mainly in Poland and Bulgaria. We expect further pressure from
labor costs, following the high inflation in the Baltics and Poland
between 2022 and 2023, offset by tight cost management and the
expected benefits of exiting the loss-making delivery business.
This underpins EBITDA margins remaining stable at 8.2%-8.3% in our
forecast. Consequently, Maxima's adjusted leverage will stay flat
in 2024 at about 2.2x achieved in 2023, down from 2.8x in 2022. We
forecast financial debt to remain largely stable on higher growth
investments and increases in dividends, and lease liabilities to
expand with earnings."
With the successful expansion in Poland and Bulgaria, Maxima is
progressively strengthening its business operations. The group has
increased its revenue base by 46% to EUR5.8 billion in 2023 from
EUR4.0 billion in 2019, mainly driven by the meaningful store
expansion, operating a total of 1,599 own and franchise stores
across five countries as of the end of 2023, of which 976 are in
Poland and 124 are in Bulgaria. Revenue growth also benefited from
the price increases in the last two years because of high inflation
in all Maxima's operating markets, ranging between 13.0% to 19.5%
in 2022 and between 8.6% to 10.9% 2023. The delay in price
increases, but also steep increases in energy costs, led to a
temporary margin contraction to 7.1% in 2022 that recovered swiftly
to 8.2% in 2023 on the back of less pronounced growth in operating
costs and lower energy prices year on year. S&P anticipates that
the growth trajectory and profitability support the business risk.
S&P sees the group's focus on emerging markets characterized by
generally higher volatility and lower GDP per capita; overall
smaller scale relative to higher rated peers; and limited expansion
prospects in Maxima's core geographies as constraining factors. The
entrance of new competitors could challenge the group's long-term
market leadership in its core markets or profitability. For
example, the discount chain LIDL entering Lithuania in 2016, Latvia
in 2021, and Estonia in 2022, led to a moderate contraction of
Maxima Grupe's respective market shares, even though the group kept
its leading positions and still high shares in those markets.
Maxima's financial policy supports the current rating but limits
the upside. Due to sizable discretionary spending on dividends and
growth investments, Maxima's credit metrics will only improve
modestly from earnings growth in 2024-2025. The group has resilient
adjusted FOCF to debt of about 20% in 2024 and 2025, which
demonstrates high cash generation and a robust ability to withstand
potentially stronger-than-expected operating setbacks. This is
somewhat lower than 2023 but incorporates the groups ambition to
increase its real estate ownership. Currently the group owns more
than 30% of its store space, with an even higher share in the
Baltics. This is coupled with S&P's view of a supportive financial
policy framework and the management and shareholder commitment to
maintain leverage broadly within our expectation for the rating.
Maxima's credit quality is closely associated with that of its
parent company, Vilniaus Prekyba (VP). Maxima is part of a wider,
more diversified group, but remains the principal asset within it.
Historically, Maxima's dividends to VP have partly funded VP's
diversification and expansion into new businesses. This has enabled
VP to increase its EBITDA base largely through self-funded
investments, translating into more robust debt to EBITDA of about
2.2x in 2023. In our view, this gives VP a cushion in case of
operating setbacks affecting Maxima's credit metrics. S&P would
expect the group to adopt a more conservative financial policy to
preserve Maxima's credit metrics and its long-term investment
capacity. In the last two years VP has started to pay dividends to
its ultimate holding Metodika and this will likely continue, so
long as the payout allows both VP and Maxima to maintain similar
leverage metrics as achieved in 2023.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectations that Maxima
will maintain its leading market position in the Baltics, despite
intensifying competition; and soundly execute its planned store
expansion in Poland and Bulgaria, leading to revenue growth and a
steady EBITDA margin of up to 8.3% in 2025. The outlook also
considers Maxima's dividend distributions, funded with FOCF, and
our expectation of adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt of
more than 30% and adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 2.0x-2.5x over
the next 12-18 months. In addition, we expect VP's debt to EBITDA
of about 2.0x-2.5x and annual FOCF after leases to largely cover
dividend payments.
"We could lower the ratings on Maxima if its leverage increased to
3.0x or higher, FFO to debt fell to below 25% at either Maxima or
the wider group, FOCF after leases sharply fell, or Maxima's or
VP's liquidity deteriorated." These could happen if:
-- The group underperforms our base case, including a material
decline in operating performance with diminishing profitability
because of intensifying market competition, or a weaker
macroeconomic environment in the Baltics or Poland weighing on
margins or cash flows; or
-- Maxima or VP adopted a more aggressive financial policy,
leading to either increased dividends or large-scale, debt-funded
acquisitions.
S&P could raise the ratings on Maxima if the group successfully
expands its scale, gains market position, and improves
profitability translating into the following metrics:
-- Adjusted debt to EBITDA falling sustainably below 2.0x for
Maxima and VP;
-- Maxima's FOCF after leases substantially exceeding its dividend
payments, resulting in debt reduction; and
-- Robust liquidity and capital structure with at least adequate
headroom and weighted average debt maturity.
S&P would also need to see a financial policy commitment from
Maxima and its parent to sustain these credit metrics.
S&P said, "Governance factors are a moderately negative
consideration in our credit rating analysis of Maxima due to a
greater number of senior management changes than the industry
average. Although we generally associate frequent changes with the
risk of strategic and operational missteps, we note that Maxima's
operating performance has been stable. Moreover, most of the
leaving personnel have remained part of the group in different
positions. We also note that Maxima's governance structure includes
the same person in the CEO and chairman position.
"Environmental factors are a neutral consideration in our analysis
of Maxima. Like other European food retailers, Maxima focuses on
improving its environmental impact. The group aims to minimize food
waste, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce its recourse to
plastic packaging. In February 2024, Maxima received its Science
Based Targets initiative (SBTi) validation because of its
commitment to several targets to meet these challenges, including
reducing scope 1 and 2 carbon dioxide emissions by 42% by 2030.
"Social factors are a neutral consideration. Retail is a
labor-intensive industry, and the political and societal focus on
paying a living wage has increased. In retail, labor costs are one
of the largest expenses and employers have been raising wages and
benefits to attract and retain workers. Maxima employs 37,828
people in Europe. Collective bargaining agreements are in place for
46.5% of total employees. Markets in which Maxima operate have
experienced the highest inflation in the eurozone varying between
8.6%-10.9% in 2023 compared with 5.4% for the eurozone. We estimate
that inflation will remain slightly higher in Maxima's operating
markets than in the eurozone in 2024. The elevated inflation
implies further pressure to raise wages, which is reflected in our
guidance that the S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin will
stay at 8.2% in 2024."
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
AMMEGA GROUP: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B-' on Delayed Deleveraging
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Ammega Group
B.V. to 'B-' from 'B'. S&P also lowered its issue-level rating on
its term loan B to 'B-' from 'B'.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Ammega
will benefit from recovering market conditions, as well as
cost-saving initiatives. Despite the challenging operating
environment, we expect Ammega to generate positive free operating
cash flow (FOCF) and gradually lower leverage over the next 12-18
months.
"We no longer expect that Ammega can achieve S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA of approximately 6.5x in
2024. This level of leverage was necessary to maintain a 'B'
rating. In fiscal 2023 (ended December 2023), Ammega's leverage
reached 8.3x, exceeding our previous expectation of 6.6x-6.8x. The
increase stems from currently soft economic conditions in the
global belting market, as well as destocking in distribution
channels, leading to weak market conditions in the company's
underlying markets. This impacted global demand for Ammega's
products, as well as the company's performance."
Ammega continued to report subdued operating performance in the
first quarter of 2024. For that period, revenue declined 9.4% year
over year and reported EBITDA margins decreased about 1070 basis
points (bps) year over year to 7.1%. The decline in volumes sold
and a one-time effect from a cyber attack incident (which S&P does
not adjust for) contributed to this large margin reduction.
S&P said, "Looking ahead, although we anticipate the second quarter
of 2024 will continue to be subdued driven by underlying markets,
we expect a recovery for Ammega in the second half of 2024,
resulting in overall revenue remaining broadly flat for the full
year 2024. Additionally, we expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA margins to improve up to 70 bps, reaching about 17.0% in
fiscal 2024. These improvements have support from Ammega's pricing
strategies, operational excellence, and cost-saving initiatives.
Overall, we project a moderate reduction in leverage to
approximately 8.0x in 2024, from 8.3x in 2023.
"In 2025, we anticipate moderate revenue growth and further EBITDA
margin improvement due to a sound recovery in industrial activity
and the destocking effect fading out.As market recovery gains
traction, we forecast revenue growth of 3%-5% in 2025. Ammega's
strategic focus remains on top-line growth, including strengthening
relationships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and
distributors, expanding into underdeveloped industry segments,
capitalizing cross-selling opportunities, digitalizing the supply
chain, and developing new products.
"Additionally, we expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins
to improve to more than 18% in 2025. This improvement stems from
increasing volumes, benefits from pricing strategies, cost-saving
initiatives, and a reduction in one-off costs. Consequently, we
project that leverage will decline to about 7.0x in 2025.
"We maintain our expectation that Ammega will generate positive
FOCF. Although Ammega is highly leveraged, the group's financial
risks are partially offset by the relatively low capital intensity
of its business. Our estimate for maintenance capital expenditure
(capex) stands at approximately 1%-2% of revenues, and the working
capital needs are moderate (about 1%-2% of revenues).
"Consequently, we anticipate that the group will sustain positive
reported FOCF of approximately EUR10 million-EUR20 million in 2024
and EUR30 million-EUR50 million in 2025, despite the muted
operating performance and its relatively high cash-paying interest
(which is partially hedged) and tax burden. Furthermore, we expect
funds from operations (FFO) cash interest coverage to improve
toward 2.0x-2.2x in 2025, up from approximately 1.7x-1.9x in 2024.
"Ammega group plans to refinance the EUR70 million stub of term
loan B1 maturing in July 2025. Following the completion of a
maturity extension of its term loan B1 in July 2023, only EUR70
million of Ammega's term loan B1 remains due in July 2025. Ammega
plans to refinance the EUR70 million stub through add-on debt using
the same terms and conditions as the recently extended term loan B2
from July 2023. We view the transaction to be leverage neutral and
is positive for Ammega's liquidity, pushing any notable maturities
out to 2028.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that demand will start
recovering in the next 12 months with overall improving sentiment
in the economy, resulting in stabilized operating performance for
Ammega and gradual deleveraging over the coming 12 months."
S&P could lower the rating if:
-- The difficult operating environment results in weaker credit
ratios than S&P projects, such that Ammega's capital structure
becomes unsustainable or adjusted FFO cash interest coverage
reduces to below 1.5x; or
-- Ammega's operating performance weakens such that FOCF turns
significantly negative for a prolonged time.
S&P said, "These scenarios could materialize from a steeper decline
in revenue, EBITDA, higher stock levels, or capex than we
anticipate.
"We could raise our rating on Ammega if it manages to significantly
improve its operating and financial performance, reducing its
adjusted gross debt to EBITDA consistently below 6.5x while
adjusted FFO cash interest coverage remains consistently above
2.0x. This could result from stronger recovery in operating
performance thanks to an upturn in the group's end markets."
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R U S S I A
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UZBEKHYDROENERGO JSC: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LT IDR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Uzbekhydroenergo JSC's (UGE) Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with Stable Outlook.
The affirmation reflects the state's continuing guarantee for
nearly all of UGE's debt and its expectations that the share of
guaranteed debt will be above 75% for 2024-2027, leading to UGE's
rating being equalised with Uzbekistan's, under Fitch's
Government-Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria.
UGE's 'b+' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) reflects its gradual
increase in scale, monopoly position in hydro generation in
Uzbekistan and high operating profitability. Low tariff visibility,
mounting trade receivables stock, limitations in the operating
environment and its expectation of capex-driven re-leveraging up to
its negative sensitivity of 4.0x remain key constraints. Fitch
expects UGE to maintain some financial headroom in 2024 on the back
of strong operating performance before it is exhausted towards
end-2027 by the acceleration of its investment plan.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Rating Equalised with Sovereign's: All of UGE's debt is guaranteed
by the government and Fitch forecasts the share of state-guaranteed
debt to remain above 75% over 2024-2027, justifying the rating
equalisation under its GRE Criteria. UGE expects to continue
financing its intensive capex for new construction and
modernisation with a mix of state-guaranteed loans from development
banks and international financial institutions, as well as with own
funds. UGE may start attracting non-guaranteed loans once the
regulatory environment matures and allows the company to rely less
on state support.
Updated GRE Assessment: Under its updated GRE Criteria, Fitch
assesses both decision-making and oversight and precedents of
support as 'Very Strong'. The state has strong influence on UGE's
strategy and operations by approving its investment plans and
setting tariffs. Its guarantees on nearly all of UGE's debt result
not only in 'Very Strong' precedents of support, but also in rating
equalisation. Its assessment of 'Not Strong Enough' for incentive
to support reflects UGE's moderate market share of 10%, small
absolute amount of debt (USD0.3 billion at end-2023) and lack of
publicly traded debt instruments..
In absence of the overriding factor of state-guaranteed debt under
its criteria, Fitch would rate UGE using a bottom-up plus one
approach, which would have resulted in the same IDR.
Material Capex Increase: Fitch has revised up average annual
investments to UZS3.3 trillion, from UZS2.1 trillion in its last
review, due to modernisation of plants and new capacity to be
commissioned over 2026-2028. However, this is still materially
below management's capex guidance for the period. The investment
plan remains aligned with UGE's strategic objectives of modernising
existing power plants and increasing capacity until 2030, in its
view. UGE also has a more extensive pipeline of potential projects,
subject to available funding and sufficient leverage headroom,
under its internal financial policy.
Strong Operational Performance: UGE reported UZS1.9 trillion
(USD166 million) EBITDA in 2023, a 30% increase versus 2022, which
represents a material overperformance of its forecasts. Fitch
expects the strong results to continue in 2024 due to growing
installed capacity, healthy hydro resources and higher tariffs. The
higher EBITDA will partially finance the increase in capex for
2024-2027.
Leverage Headroom to Decrease: Funds from operations (FFO) leverage
remained below 2.5x for 2022 and 2023 due to operating
overperformance but Fitch expects headroom to be gradually
exhausted over the next three years as UGE ramps up investment.
While Fitch expects UGE to remain under-leveraged in 2024, under
its rating case, FFO leverage will average 3.8x over 2025-2028,
just below its negative sensitivity of 4.0x. Fitch expects
management to monitor leverage closely and adjust investments
accordingly to protect credit metrics.
Lack of Visibility on Tariffs: The tariff-setting process remains
opaque, in its view, which is negative for UGE's credit profile.
The Uzbek regulatory framework remains a key rating constraint for
UGE, despite recent positive developments. In November 2023, the
Uzbek government created the Energy Market Development and
Regulation Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which is
responsible for developing competitive wholesale and retail energy
markets. While Fitch sees this as a positive development, revenue
visibility has yet to improve.
High Counterparty Risk: In July 2024, all energy purchase and
selling obligations were transferred from National Electric Grid of
Uzbekistan to Uzenergosotish JSC, a newly created entity
wholly-owned by the government. However, cash collections for UGE
remain dependent on other parties of the electricity value chain
that are outside of UGE's control. Trade receivables increased to
UZS1.2 trillion in 2023 from UZS0.8 trillion in 2022. This is
mitigated by UGE's high EBITDA margin driven by a lack of fuel
costs, but remains a constraint on its SCP.
Concentrated Asset Base: UGE's asset base is concentrated by the
number of assets, geography and technology. Its largest hydro power
plant (HPP) cascade accounts for close to 40% of its installed
capacity and UGE's generation is exposed to Uzbekistan's hydro
resources. This concentration is partially mitigated by UGE's
efficient operations and very low marginal generation costs.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
UGE has a slightly weaker business profile than Turkish renewable
energy producers Zorlu Yenilenebilir Enerji Anonim Sirketi
(B-/Stable) and Aydem Yenilenebilir Enerji Anonim Sirketi
(B/Stable). All three companies benefit from high EBITDA margins,
but the Turkish peers have better asset quality and higher revenue
visibility as they sell electricity on the free market or under a
support mechanism, which provides fixed US dollar-denominated
feed-in tariffs for 10 years. The local operating environment is a
weakness for all three companies.
ENERGO-PRO a.s. (BB-/Stable), a utility operating in Bulgaria,
Georgia, Turkey and Spain, benefits from a stronger operating and
regulatory environment than UGE, and from integration into networks
resulting in higher debt capacity than UGE's.
UGE's 'b+' SCP considers a gradual increase in leverage and
expected negative free cash flow (FCF) as the company progresses
with its investment programme, and foreign-exchange (FX) mismatch
between revenue and debt. Its financial profile is similar to that
of ENERGO-PRO, but stronger than Aydem's and Zorlu's.
Similar to Thermal Power Plants Joint Stock Company (BB-/Stable,
SCP: ccc) and Regional Electrical Power Networks JSC (BB-/Stable,
SCP: b-), UGE benefits from almost all its debt being guaranteed by
the state or provided by the state via the Ministry of Economy and
Finance, which justifies its ratings being equalised with
Uzbekistan's. Among other GREs, JSC Almalyk Mining and
Metallurgical Complex (BB-/Stable, SCP: b+) is also equalised with
the sovereign's due to 'Very Likely' support. The rating of JSC
Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (BB-/Stable, SCP: bb) is
constrained by the sovereign's.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Domestic GDP growth on average at 5.7% per year over 2024-2027
- US dollar averaging around 13,300 Uzbek som over 2024-2027,
signaling a devaluation against the US dollar
- Electricity production volume averaging 7.5TWh over 2024-2027
- Effective tariffs to grow 23% in 2024, followed by 5% to 2027
- Average capex close to UZS3.3 trillion (USD250 million) annually
over 2024-2027
- Negligible dividends to 2026
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:
- A sovereign upgrade
- A more transparent and predictable operating and regulatory
framework (including implementation of multi-year tariffs) together
with a stronger financial profile (FFO leverage below 2.5x on a
sustained basis) could be positive for the SCP
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:
- A sovereign downgrade
- Significant weakening of links with the state
- Operational underperformance, ambitious capex programme, material
trade receivables build-up or dividends resulting in a
deterioration in the financial profile (FFO leverage exceeding 4.0x
on a sustained basis) could be negative for the SCP
The Following Rating Sensitivities Are for Uzbekistan (23 February
2024):
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:
- External Finances: A marked worsening of external finances, for
example, via a large and sustained drop in remittances, or a
widening in the trade deficit, leading to a significant decline in
FX reserves
- Public Finances: A marked rise in the government debt-to-GDP
ratio or an erosion of sovereign fiscal buffers, for example, due
to an extended period of low growth, loose fiscal stance or
crystallisation of contingent liabilities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:
- Macro: Consistent implementation of structural reforms that
promote macroeconomic stability, sustain strong GDP growth
prospects and support better fiscal outturns
- Public Finances: Confidence in a durable fiscal consolidation
that enhances medium-term public debt sustainability
- Structural: A marked and sustained improvement in governance
standards
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
External Financing Key: At end-2023, UGE had cash and equivalents
of UZS205 billion (USD17 million) against short-term debt of UZS615
billion (USD50million). UGE plans to repay short-term debt from
operational cash flows and has pre-agreed on additional credit
facilities of close to USD50 million to fund capex. Cash balances
are mostly held in local currency with domestic banks.
UGE's debt is represented by low-interest government-guaranteed
loans in US dollars and euros from national and foreign banks. The
maturity profile is well-spread as most of the loans are
amortising. Fitch expects UGE to continue generating negative FCF
over 2024-2027, including a growing trade receivables stock. The
company plans to finance capex with new bank borrowings and has
secured financing for some of its projects.
High FX Exposure Risk: UGE is subject to FX risk as almost 100% of
its debt is denominated in foreign currencies while most of its
revenue is in Uzbek som. The company does not hedge its FX risks.
ISSUER PROFILE
UGE is a 100% state-owned company which controls all HPPs in
Uzbekistan (around 50 HPPs) and micro HPPs). The company has 2.2GW
installed capacity and around a 10% share of total electricity
production in Uzbekistan.
PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS
UGE's rating is linked to Uzbekistan's IDR.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
UGE has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial Transparency
due to delays in the publication of IFRS accounts compared with
international best practice and the absence of interim IFRS
reporting. The lack of transparency limits its ability to assess
the company's financial condition, which has a negative impact on
the credit profile and is relevant to the rating, in conjunction
with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Uzbekhydroenergo JSC LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
===========
S W E D E N
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IGT HOLDING III: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3 & Alters Outlook to Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings downgraded IGT Holding III AB's (IFS or the
company) corporate family rating and its probability of default
rating to B3 and B3-PD from B2 and B2-PD, respectively.
Concurrently, Moody's downgraded to B3 from B2 the rating of the
backed senior secured bank credit facility instruments issued by
IGT Holding IV AB and assigned a B3 rating to the proposed new
EUR400 million backed senior secured term loan B4, also to be
issued by IGT Holding IV AB. The outlook on both entities was
changed to stable from negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The ratings downgrade primarily reflects a significant increase in
IFS' leverage. The company is raising new EUR400 million senior
secured term loan B4 that, together with new $300 million
payment-in-kind (PIK) debt to be issued outside of the restricted
group, will finance the acquisition of Copperleaf Technologies Inc.
(Copperleaf), a provider of software solutions to companies
managing critical infrastructure such as electricity, natural gas,
water and transportation. In 2023, Copperleaf generated around
EUR54 million in revenue, with company-adjusted EBITDA of EUR-22
million and negative free cash flow (FCF).
Pro forma for the acquisition Moody's estimate IFS'
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage will be around 7.0x as of December
2024, considerably higher than Moody's previous estimate of 5.5x.
Additionally, considering the increased debt quantum and interest
expenses combined with the negative FCF profile of Copperleaf,
Moody's no longer forecast IFS' Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt to reach
5% by 2025, which was Moody's key assumption supporting its B2 CFR.
Moody's recognize Copperleaf strong growth prospect and IFS' action
plan to improve the targets' profitability and cash generation in
the coming 12 months, but there are still execution risks to this
plan.
IFS' B3 CFR considers its leading market positions in defined
industry verticals; high renewal rates and growing recurring
revenue; the company's ability to provide more tailored solutions
as a specialised provider; the opportunities for further growth and
margin expansion as the proportion of consulting revenue declines
with the continued expansion of its partner network; and adequate
liquidity with low refinancing risk.
In addition to high leverage and weak FCF, IFS' B3 CFR is
constrained by the challenges associated with competing with larger
enterprise software providers, particularly for large global
customers; and the risk of future shareholder distributions or
further debt-financed acquisitions.
RATING OUTLOOK
IFS' stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the company's
Moody's-adjusted credit metrics will remain commensurate with the
B3 rating over the next 12 to 18 months, such as FCF/debt in
low-single digit percentage range. The outlook incorporates Moody's
assumption that there will be no significant increase in leverage
from any future debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder
distributions, and that the company will maintain adequate
liquidity.
LIQUIDITY
IFS has adequate liquidity, supported by cash on balance sheet of
EUR130 million as of June 2024, EUR63 million available liquidity
under its SEK2,350 million revolving credit facility (RCF) due in
2027 (additional EUR55 million RCF draw compared with March 2024
financed the acquisition of EmpowerMX and is due to be repaid with
shareholder equity by end July 2024), and Moody's expectation of
positive FCF generation. The RCF contains a springing net leverage
covenant set at a level of 9.67x, tested quarterly if the RCF is
drawn more than 40% for working capital purposes. Moody's do not
expect a breach under the covenant.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B3 instrument ratings are in line with IFS' CFR, because all
term loans rank pari passu. Guarantors of the term loans Moody's
rate represent at least 80% of IFS' EBITDA. The security package is
limited to pledges over shares, bank accounts, intercompany
receivables, and, where possible, a general and floating charge
over assets.
Moody's do not include the contemplated PIK debt in IFS'
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage calculation, nor in its loss given
default waterfall. However, Moody's consider its existence
qualitatively as credit negative.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade of IFS' CFR would primarily require evidence of a
sustained improvement in its Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt towards 5%.
Given the current disconnect between EBITDA and FCF metrics,
Moody's believe the FCF metric is key to assessing the fundamental
underlying economics of the business at this time. Furthermore,
application of financial policies leading to Moody's-adjusted gross
leverage sustainably below 6.0x and Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA –
capital expenditures)/interest expense at around or above 2.0x
would also indicate positive rating pressure.
Conversely, negative rating pressure could develop if the company's
revenue and EBITDA growth is weaker than expected such that
Moody's-adjusted leverage weakens to above 7.5x; the company's FCF
turned negative, or its Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA – capital
expenditures)/interest expenses weakened below 1.3x, all on a
sustained basis; or if its liquidity deteriorated.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Governance considerations were among the primary drivers of this
rating action. The company's decision to fully debt fund the
acquisition of Copperleaf (including PIK debt outside of the
restricted group), thereby increasing leverage and weakening its
FCF generation prospects compared with Moody's initial
expectations.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Software
published in June 2022.
COMPANY PROFILE
IFS is an enterprise software provider with a focus on enterprise
asset management (EAM), field service management (FSM) and
enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions. The company serves
defined industry verticals, including manufacturing, aerospace and
defence, energy and utilities, service companies and construction.
In 2023, IFS generated revenue of EUR1.05 billion and
company-adjusted EBITDA of EUR331 million. It is majority-owned by
a private equity firm EQT Partners.
===========
T U R K E Y
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[*] Moody's Upgrades Ratings on 17 Turkish Banks
------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the local and foreign-currency
long-term deposit, issuer and senior unsecured ratings - where
applicable - and Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) of 17 Turkish
banks. The outlooks on the long-term deposit, senior unsecured debt
and issuer ratings – where applicable – of 17 banks remain
positive.
The affected banks are: Akbank T.A.S. (Akbank), T.C. Ziraat Bankasi
A.S. (Ziraat Bank), Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi T.A.O. (Vakifbank),
Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. (Halkbank), Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S.
(Isbank), Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S. (TSKB), Yapi ve Kredi
Bankasi A.S. (YapiKredi), Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (Garanti
BBVA), Odea Bank A.S. (Odea), Alternatifbank A.S. (Alternatifbank),
Export Credit Bank of Turkiye A.S. (Turk Exim), Nurol Investment
Bank A.S. (Nurol), Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S. (TEB), Sekerbank
T.A.S. (Sekerbank), QNB Finansbank A.S. (QNB Finansbank), Denizbank
A.S. (Denizbank), and HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey) (HSBC Turkey).
The rating action follows Moody's decision to upgrade the
Government of Turkiye's issuer rating to B1 from B3 previously and
maintain a positive outlook. At the same time, Moody's have raised
Turkiye's foreign-currency country ceiling to Ba3 from B2 and the
local-currency country ceiling to Ba1 from Ba3.
A List of Affected Credit Ratings is available at
https://urlcurt.com/u?l=tUMoTC
RATINGS RATIONALE
-- BCA UPGRADES DRIVEN BY IMPROVING OPERATING CONDITIONS AND
RESILIENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Moody's decision to upgrade the Turkish banks' standalone BCAs
reflects, to differing degrees for each bank (1) the improvement of
the operating environment, as captured by the improved Macro
Profile for Turkiye of "Weak" from "Very Weak +"; and (2) a track
record of resilient performance by the Turkish banks.
The revised Macro Profile score for Turkiye is underpinned by the
Turkish government's improvements in governance, more specifically
the decisive and increasingly well-established return to orthodox
monetary policy. In turn, these factors have eased the pressure on
the banks' financial performance and improved the banking sector's
access to foreign funding. Additionally, the Very Weak+ macro
profile was capturing the possibility of a balance of payment
crisis which could have led to capital controls and restrictions on
foreign currency outflows – risks which are no longer expected
for the banking system with banks' foreign currency reserve buffers
rising fast over the past few months.
The government policy change over the last year is yielding
positive results in terms of inflation, domestic confidence in the
Turkish Lira and foreign capital inflows, which is supporting the
funding profile of the banking system. Following the reversal of
the unorthodox measures, the volume of foreign exchange (FX)-linked
deposits (KKM) held by the Turkish banks has fallen by 50% to $61.6
billion in early July compared to the peak at $127.6 billion in
August 2023, without material impact on financial stability.
Nevertheless, Moody's note that this still makes up around 13% of
total system deposits and Moody's expect the costs of
local-currency deposits to remain at elevated levels until KKM
volumes reduce to negligible levels.
Despite the unorthodox government policies in recent years, the
Turkish banks have reported a resilient financial performance,
underpinned by strong profitability and asset quality. The new
economic management team has now reversed the majority of the
unorthodox policies, which will lead to slower economic growth
coupled with moderating inflation, albeit from high levels.
Therefore, Moody's expect the banks' asset quality to deteriorate
and profitability to decline and converge to long-term averages.
UPGRADE OF LONG-TERM RATINGS REFLECTS BOTH THE HIGHER BCAs AND THE
SOVEREIGN RATING UPGRADE
The upgrade of the long-term ratings for the banks – where
applicable – reflect the higher standalone credit assessments or
BCAs, together with the sovereign rating upgrade of the Government
of Turkiye, which provides from 1 to 3 notches of uplift from the
banks' BCAs, where applicable. While the government support
notching for most banks remains unchanged, the foreign-currency
deposit and Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) of some banks remain
constrained by the foreign-currency ceiling level at Ba3.
POSITIVE OUTLOOK
The positive outlooks on all banks' long-term deposit, issuer and
senior unsecured ratings – where applicable – reflect (i) the
potential for further improvement in the operating environment for
Turkish banks which may lead to an improvement in financial
fundamentals, and (ii) the positive outlook on the Government of
Turkiye's rating.
BANK SPECIFIC CONSIDERATIONS
Akbank T.A.S. (Akbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Akbank to b1 from
b3 and upgraded the bank's long-term foreign-currency and
local-currency deposit ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have also
upgraded the long-term local and foreign-currency CRRs to Ba3 from
B2 reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency country
ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Akbank's BCA to b1 captures the improvements in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such, Moody's expect the bank to maintain
solid core capital buffers, solid core profitability and high
provisioning coverage against problem loans as well as sound
liquidity.
Moody's continue to incorporate a high probability of government
support to Akbank's long-term deposit ratings, which results in no
uplift as the bank's b1 BCA is at the same level as Turkiye's
long-term issuer rating of B1.
Alternatifbank A.S. (Alternatifbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Alternatifbank to
b3 from caa1 and ba3 from b1, respectively. Moody's have also
upgraded the bank's long-term foreign-currency and local-currency
deposit ratings to Ba3 from B2 and B1, respectively. The long-term
foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2
from B2 and B1, respectively, reflecting the higher local and
foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3,
respectively.
The upgrade of Alternatifbank's BCA to b3 captures the improvements
in operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
resilient asset quality trends, high reliance on market funds and
still benefit from parental funding. Moody's also expect asset
quality and profitability trends to converge to the bank's
long-term average as economic growth slows down coupled with high
inflation. At the same time, the BCA also captures increased
reliance on market funding and structural exposure to more risky
loan-segments including energy and construction sectors.
The upgrade of Alternatifbank's Adjusted BCA to ba3 reflects a
three-notch uplift from the bank's b3 BCA based on Moody's
assumption of a very high probability of affiliate support from The
Commercial Bank (P.S.Q.C.) (CBQ, A3 Stable, ba1), based on the
close brand affiliation of the two banks, 100% ownership and
Alternatifbank's status as a material subsidiary of CBQ.
Denizbank A.S. (Denizbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Denizbank to b2
from caa1 and ba2 from b1, respectively. Moody's have upgraded the
bank's long-term foreign-currency and local-currency deposit
ratings to Ba3 and Ba2 from B2 and B1, respectively. The long-term
foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2
from B2 and B1, respectively, reflecting the higher local and
foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3,
respectively.
The upgrade of Denizbank's BCA to b2 captures the improvements in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such, the bank's BCA is supported by
robust liquidity and capital as well as high loan loss coverage. At
the same time, Moody's expect the bank's relatively weak asset
quality and profitability trends to converge to the bank's
long-term averages as the bank has higher exposure to riskier loan
segments including SME and credit card loans.
The upgrade of Denizbank's Adjusted BCA to ba2 reflects a
three-notch uplift from the bank's b2 BCA based on the assumption
of very high probability of affiliate support from Emirates NBD
Bank PJSC (ENBD, A2 positive, baa3), based on 100% ownership and
Denizbank's status as a material and strategically important
subsidiary of ENBD.
Export Credit Bank of Turkiye A.S. (Turk Exim)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Turk Exim to b1
from b3 and upgraded the bank's long-term foreign-currency and
local-currency issuer ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have also
upgraded the long-term local and foreign-currency CRRs of Turk Exim
to Ba3 from B2 reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency
country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Turk Exim's BCA to b1 reflects the improvement in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its very low asset risk driven by government guarantees and low
problem loans, moderate capitalization which still benefits from
the Turkish Treasury's cash capital injections, as well as
favorable market funding terms.
Moody's continue to incorporate a very high probability of
government support to Turk Exim's long-term issuer ratings, which
results in no uplift as the bank's b1 BCA is at the same level as
Turkiye's long-term issuer rating of B1.
HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey) (HSBC Turkey)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of HSBC Turkey to b2
from caa1 and ba2 from b1, respectively. Moody's have upgraded the
bank's long-term foreign-currency and local-currency deposit
ratings to Ba3 from B2 and Ba2 from B1, respectively. The long-term
foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2
from B2 and B1, respectively, reflecting the higher local and
foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3,
respectively.
The upgrade of HSBC Turkey's BCA to b2 reflects the improvement in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such, the bank's BCA is supported by
robust liquidity, capital and high loan loss coverage. The bank's
BCA also captures the highly improved asset quality position, lower
reliance on market funding and strong liquidity position.
The upgrade of HSBC Turkey's Adjusted BCA to ba2 reflects a
three-notch uplift from the bank's b2 BCA based on the assumption
of very high probability of affiliate support from HSBC Holdings
plc (A3 stable, a3) based on HSBC Turkey's enhanced strategic fit
with the group, following completion of its strategic realignment,
as well as its improved performance and strong brand association.
Nurol Investment Bank A.S. (Nurol)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Nurol to caa1
from caa2 and upgraded the bank's long-term foreign-currency and
local-currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa2. Moody's have also
upgraded the long-term local and foreign-currency CRRs to B3 from
Caa1 reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency country
ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Nurol's BCA to caa1 reflects the improvements in the
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its strong core profitability and adequate capital buffers. These
strengths mitigate the risks stemming from the bank's lack of
business diversification, significant borrower and sector
concentration risks as well as its high reliance on market funding.
Moody's also expect the asset quality and profitability trends for
the bank to converge to the bank's long-term average as the
economic growth slows down coupled with high inflation.
The upgrade of Nurol's long-term issuer ratings to Caa1 reflects
the upgrade of the bank's BCA and Moody's assessment of a low
probability of government support that results in no uplift for the
bank's ratings.
Odea Bank A.S. (Odea)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Odea to b3 from
caa1 and upgraded the bank's long-term foreign-currency and
local-currency deposit ratings to B3 from Caa1. Moody's have also
upgraded the long-term local and foreign-currency CRRs to B2 from
B3, reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency country
ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Odea's BCA to b3 captures the improvements in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its moderate dependence on wholesale funding, modest capital
buffers and improving core profitability. These strengths mitigate
the risks stemming from the bank's significant borrower
concentration on commercial and corporate loans, especially in the
energy and tourism sectors. Moody's also expect the asset quality
and profitability trends to converge to the bank's long-term
average as economic growth slows down coupled with high inflation.
The upgrade of Odea's long-term deposit ratings to B3 follows the
upgrade of the bank's BCA, and Moody's assessment of a low
probability of government support that results in no uplift for the
bank's ratings.
QNB Finansbank A.S. (QNB Finansbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of QNB Finansbank to
b2 from b3 and ba2 from b1, respectively. Moody's have upgraded the
bank's long-term foreign-currency and local-currency deposit
ratings to Ba3 from B2 and Ba2 from B1, respectively. The long-term
foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2
from B2 and B1, respectively, reflecting the higher local and
foreign currency country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3,
respectively.
The upgrade of QNB Finansbank's BCA to b2 captures the improvements
in operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such, the bank's BCA is driven by robust
liquidity, adequate internal capital generation capacity and
capitalisation levels, access to capital via its parent as well as
strong loan loss coverage. The BCA also captures QNB Finansbank's
weaker asset quality in the context of problem loan metrics which
have been historically higher than the Turkish banking sector's.
Moody's also expect the bank's asset quality and profitability
trends to converge to the bank's long-term averages as the bank has
higher exposure to riskier loan segments including SME and credit
card loans.
The upgrade of QNB Finansbank's Adjusted BCA to ba2 reflects a
three-notch uplift from the bank's b2 BCA based on Moody's
assumption of very high probability of affiliate support from Qatar
National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) (QNB, Aa3 stable, baa1) driven by QNB
Finansbank's strategic importance to QNB as well as greater
integration and increasing significance of QNB Finansbank to QNB.
Sekerbank T.A.S. (Sekerbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Sekerbank to b2
from caa1 and the long-term foreign-currency and local-currency
deposit ratings to B1 from Caa1. Moody's have upgraded the
long-term foreign-currency and local-currency CRRs to B1 from B3,
reflecting the higher local-currency and foreign-currency ceiling
of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Sekerbank's BCA to b2 captures the improvements in
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such the bank's BCA is driven by strong
capitalisation coupled with adequate liquidity, while Sekerbank's
elevated asset risk is mitigated by strong coverage levels as well
as prudent risk management practices. Moody's also expect the
bank's profitability to converge to the bank's long-term average as
the loan and deposit rates converge in line with the orthodox
policy environment.
The upgrade of Sekerbank's long-term deposit ratings to B1 follows
the upgrade of the bank's BCA and Moody's assessment of a high
probability of government support that results in a one notch
uplift for the bank's deposit ratings. The deposit ratings of
Sekerbank are not constrained by Turkiye's local-currency and
foreign-currency ceilings.
T.C. Ziraat Bankasi A.S. (Ziraat Bank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Ziraat Bank to b1
from caa1, and the long-term foreign-currency and local-currency
deposit ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have upgraded the long-term
local-currency and foreign-currency CRRs of Ziraat Bank to Ba3 from
B3, reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency country
ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Ziraat Bank's BCA to b1, captures the improvements
in the operating conditions which will continue to support the
bank's improved financial performance. As such Moody's expect the
bank to maintain a relatively low stock of problem loans, moderate
capital buffers and solid liquidity. While Ziraat has a higher
exposure to the SME loan-segment, the associated asset risk is
mitigated by the bank's strong franchise and systemic importance in
Turkiye.
The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to B1 reflects the BCA
upgrade and Moody's assessment of a very high probability of
government support, which results in no uplift as the bank's b1 BCA
is at the same level as Turkiye's long-term issuer rating of B1.
The very high probability of government support is driven by the
bank's significance to the Turkish banking system, which is
supported by its large market share of deposits and loans and 100%
government ownership (through Turkiye Wealth Fund).
Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S. (TEB)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of TEB to b2 from b3
and ba3 from b1, respectively. Moody's have upgraded the bank's
long-term foreign-currency and local-currency deposit ratings to
Ba3 from B2 and B1, respectively. The long-term foreign and
local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2, from B2 and
B1 respectively, reflecting the higher local and foreign- currency
country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of TEB's BCA to b2 captures the improvements in the
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such, the bank's BCA is driven by
moderate capital buffers and access to parental funding which
supports liquidity. These strengths however, are moderated by the
bank's lower margins and elevated asset risk in line with the
expectation for the banking system. At the same time, Moody's
expect asset quality and profitability trends to converge to the
bank's long-term average as the economic growth slows down coupled
with high inflation.
The upgrade of TEB's Adjusted BCA to ba3 reflects a two-notch
uplift from the bank's b2 BCA based on Moody's assumption of a high
probability of affiliate support from BNP Paribas (BNPP, Aa3
stable, baa1), driven by BNPP's ownership of near 100% and the
strong brand association.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (Garanti BBVA)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Garanti BBVA to
b1 and ba3, respectively, from b3. Moody's have upgraded the bank's
long-term foreign-currency and local-currency deposit ratings to
Ba3 from B3. The long-term foreign and local-currency CRRs have
been upgraded to Ba3 and Ba2, respectively from B2, reflecting the
higher local and foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at
Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Garanti BBVA's standalone BCA to b1, captures the
improvements in the operating conditions which will continue to
support the bank's financial performance. As such Moody's expect
the bank to maintain its sound risk management, strong core
profitability and liquidity with moderate reliance on market
funding.
The upgrade of Garanti BBVA's Adjusted BCA to ba3 reflects a
one-notch uplift from the bank's b1 BCA based on Moody's assumption
of moderate probability of affiliate support from the parent, Banco
Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA; A2 dev, baa2) given Garanti
BBVA's strategic importance to BBVA.
The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to Ba3 reflects the
BCA and Adjusted BCA upgrades and Moody's assessment of high
probability of government support which results in no uplift for
Garanti BBVA's deposit ratings as these are above the sovereign
rating.
Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. (Halkbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Halkbank to caa1
from caa3 and, the long-term foreign-currency and local-currency
deposit ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have upgraded the long-term
local and foreign-currency CRRs of Halkbank to B1 from B3,
reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency country ceilings
of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Halkbank's BCA to caa1, captures the improvements in
the operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its relatively low stock of problem loans and moderate liquidity.
At the same time, Moody's expect the systemic pressures on asset
quality and profitability trends to weigh on the bank's solvency,
as economic growth slows down coupled with high inflation. Moody's
also note the bank's credit profile reflects weak capital buffers,
lack of international market access, governance considerations and
legal risk.
The upgrade of the bank's deposit ratings to B1 reflects Moody's
assessment of very high probability of government support
assumptions driven by the bank's significance to the Turkish
banking system, which is supported by its large market share of
deposits and loans and government ownership (through Turkiye Wealth
Fund) which stood at 91.5%. This continues to result in
three-notches of uplift for Halkbank's long-term deposit ratings
from its BCA.
Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S. (Isbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and the Adjusted BCA of Isbank to b2
from caa1 and the long-term foreign-currency and local-currency
deposit ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have upgraded the long-term
local and foreign-currency CRRs of Isbank to B1 from B3, reflecting
higher local and foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at
Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Isbank's BCA to b2, captures the improvements in the
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its strong profitability and liquidity buffers. At the same time,
Moody's note that the bank outpaced the peers' credit growth,
predominantly in the riskier loan segment of credit card loans. As
such, Moody's expect the bank's asset quality and profitability
trends to converge to the bank's long-term average as economic
growth slows down coupled with high inflation.
The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to B1 reflects Moody's
assessment of high probability of government support assumptions
driven by the bank's significance to the Turkish banking system,
which is supported by its large market share of deposits and loans.
This continues to result in a one-notch uplift for Isbank's
long-term deposit ratings from its BCA.
Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S. (TSKB)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and the Adjusted BCA of TSKB to b2
from caa1 and the long-term foreign and local-currency issuer
ratings to B1 from B3. Moody's have upgraded the long-term local
and foreign-currency CRRs of TSKB to B1 from B3, reflecting higher
local and foreign-currency country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and
Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of TSKB's BCA to b2, captures the improvement in the
operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its low level of problem loans and relatively lower asset risk in
the context of government guarantees on project finance lending
portfolio, robust core profitability and a favourable term
structure of wholesale funding.
The upgrade of the long-term issuer ratings to B1 follows the
upgrade of TSKB's BCA to b2 and Moody's assessment of high
probability of government support assumptions driven by the bank's
significance to the Turkish renewable energy market. This continues
to result in a one-notch uplift for TSKB's long-term issuer ratings
from its BCA.
Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi T.A.O. (Vakifbank)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of Vakifbank to b2
from caa2. Moody's have upgraded the bank's long-term
foreign-currency and local-currency deposit ratings to B1 from B3.
The long-term foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to
B1 from B3, reflecting the higher local and foreign-currency
country ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of Vakifbank's BCA to b2, captures the improvements in
the operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
improving financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to
maintain its relatively low stock of problem loans, moderate
capital buffers, and solid liquidity levels.
The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to B1 reflects Moody's
assessment of a very high probability of government support
assumptions driven by the bank's significance to the Turkish
banking system, which is supported by its large market share of
deposits and loans. This now results in a one-notch upgrade to
Vakifbank's long-term deposit ratings from its BCA.
Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. (YapiKredi)
Moody's have upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of YapiKredi to b1
from b3. Moody's have upgraded the bank's long-term
foreign-currency and local-currency deposit ratings to B1 from B3.
The long-term foreign and local-currency CRRs have been upgraded to
Ba3 from B2, reflecting higher local and foreign-currency country
ceilings of Turkiye at Ba1 and Ba3, respectively.
The upgrade of YapiKredi's BCA to b1, captures the improvements in
the operating conditions which will continue to support the bank's
financial performance. As such Moody's expect the bank to maintain
its strong liquidity and core profitability levels. Moody's note
that despite the previous operating environment challenges, the
bank has reduced its asset risk on the back of prudent risk
management and strong provisioning levels.
The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to B1 reflects the BCA
upgrade and Moody's assessment of high probability of government
support assumptions driven by the bank's significance to the
Turkish banking system, which continues to result in no uplift for
YapiKredi's long-term deposit ratings since its BCA as at the same
level as the sovereign rating.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Turkish banks' ratings could be upgraded if (1) the operating
environment improves further with inflation declining materially
faster than the current expectations and/or, (2) the banks maintain
solid or improving financial fundamentals, and/or (3) Turkiye's
sovereign rating of B1 is upgraded.
Given the positive outlook, a downgrade is unlikely. The outlook on
the long-term deposit, issuer and senior unsecured ratings –
where applicable - may be changed to stable if (1) the authorities
revert to unorthodox policies, (2) the banking sector's solvency
and funding profile deteriorate and/or (3) the outlook on Turkiye's
sovereign rating is changed to stable.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in March 2024.
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ASIMI FUNDING 2024-1: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class X Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned credit ratings to Asimi Funding 2024-1
PLC's class A, B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, E-Dfrd, F-Dfrd, G-Dfrd, and
X-Dfrd notes. At closing, the issuer also issued unrated Y and Z
certificates.
Asimi Funding 2024-1 PLC is an ABS transaction that securitizes a
portfolio of unsecured consumer loans originated and serviced by
Plata Finance Ltd. (Plata) in the U.K.
As part of the transaction's prefunding mechanism, the issuer will
purchase loans in the pipeline by the first interest payment date,
up to a maximum amount of GBP40 million.
The notes are paid fully sequentially in separate interest and
principal waterfalls.
The rated notes benefit from fully funded class-specific reserve
funds, which are available to provide liquidity support and pay
interest and expenses.
Plata will remain the initial servicer of the loans. The standby
servicer, Equiniti Gateway Ltd. (trading as Lenvi), has plans to be
operational within 30 days of a servicer termination event. NatWest
Markets PLC acts as the interest rate cap provider.
There are no rating constraints on the transaction under S&P's
counterparty, operational risk, or structured finance sovereign
risk criteria. S&P considers the issuer to be bankruptcy remote.
Ratings
CLASS RATING CLASS SIZE (%)
A AAA (sf) 54.0
B-Dfrd AA (sf) 10.0
C-Dfrd A (sf) 10.0
D-Dfrd A- (sf) 4.0
E-Dfrd BBB (sf) 9.0
F-Dfrd BB (sf) 7.0
G-Dfrd CCC (sf) 6.0
X-Dfrd† B- (sf) 3.5
Y Certs NR N/A
Z Certs NR N/A
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
CONSORT HEALTHCARE: Moody's Cuts GBP93.3MM Sec. Bonds Rating to Ca
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded to Ca from Caa3 the underlying and
backed ratings for the GBP93.3 million index-linked senior secured
bonds due 2041 (the Bonds) issued by Consort Healthcare (Tameside)
plc (ProjectCo). The outlook has been changed to stable from
negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The ratings downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that ProjectCo
will be unable to meet its upcoming September 30 debt service
obligation, leading to a payment default. On July 5, 2024,
ProjectCo announced[1] that its proposed restructuring plan under
Part 26A of the Companies Act 2006 had been stayed, and
consequentially no longer provides a route to avoid the expected
default.
The Tameside and Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust (the
Trust) continues to withhold the entire monthly Unitary Payment
(UP) from ProjectCo, following the adjudication outcome earlier
this year. The contractually required six-month Debt Service
Reserve Account (DSRA) was previously utilised to fund the March
debt service obligations. Therefore, ProjectCo has neither the
cashflow nor the reserve balances to meet the upcoming debt service
obligations.
The Bonds benefit from an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee
of scheduled principal and interest from Ambac Assurance UK Limited
(Ambac). However, on April 7, 2011, Moody's ratings on Ambac were
withdrawn and accordingly the backed rating reflects the rating of
the Project on a stand-alone basis.
Moody's expect senior creditors to ultimately be reliant on Ambac's
guarantee for debt service payments. Under the terms of the
guarantee, following a payment default Ambac is obligated to make
payments to senior creditors, but it retains sole discretion over
whether these payments are made on the original debt service
schedule or on an accelerated basis.
The ratings reflect Moody's view of the eventual expected recovery
for Ambac. Following a ProjectCo default or other termination
event, the Trust will be liable to pay compensation to ProjectCo as
per the terms of the Project Agreement (PA). Compensation will be
calculated either through a re-tendering exercise (subject to the
existence of a liquid market) or through the estimated fair value
of the PA. As disclosed in the order for security over costs as
part of the restructuring plan[2], ProjectCo and the Trust disagree
on the existence of a liquid market and the timeline the
termination and compensation process will take to conclude. Moody's
therefore view the compensation process for ProjectCo and Ambac as
potentially protracted.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's view that it will take time to
determine the final compensation value following Moody's
expectation of imminent default, and the expected recovery rate is
unlikely to change in the short term.
Consort Healthcare (Tameside) plc is a special purpose company that
in September 2007 signed a PA with the then Tameside and Glossop
Acute Services NHS Trust to redevelop the existing Tameside General
Hospital site in Ashton-under-Lyne, Greater Manchester and to
provide certain hard FM services until August 2041.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Given Moody's expectation of a default, there is extremely limited
scope for upgrade. However, limited positive pressure could apply
if ProjectCo and the Trust reach an agreement to avoid the expected
payment default.
Conversely, the rating may be downgraded if Moody's view of
expected recovery for Ambac following a default decreases.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Operational
Privately Financed Public Infrastructure (PFI/PPP/P3) Projects
published in March 2023.
EUROSAIL 2006-2BL: Fitch Affirms 'CCCsf' Rating on Class F1c Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Eurosail 2006-2BL PLC's (ES06-2) notes
and Eurosail 2006-4NP PLC's (ES06-4) notes. Fitch has also revised
the Outlook on ES06-2's class E1c notes to Negative from Stable, as
detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Eurosail 2006-2BL PLC
Class B1a 298805AG7 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1b 298805AH5 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1a 298805AK8 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1c 298805AM4 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class D1a 298805AN2 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class D1c 298805AQ5 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class E1c XS0266258317 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
Class F1c XS0266260560 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Eurosail 2006-4NP Plc
Class B1a 29880JAG7 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1a 29880JAK8 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1c 29880JAM4 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class D1a 29880JAN2 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class D1c 29880JAQ5 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class E1c 027421601 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Class M1a 29880JAU6 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class M1c 29880JAW2 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
The transactions comprise non-conforming UK mortgage loans
originated by Southern Pacific Mortgage Limited and Preferred
Mortgages Limited, formerly wholly-owned subsidiaries of Lehman
Brothers.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Outlook Revision: The revision of the Outlook on ES06-2's class E
notes to Negative reflects the deteriorating asset performance,
which may adversely impact the notes' rating. It also reflects high
rating sensitivity to weaker recovery rates than those calculated
by Fitch's ResiGlobal Model: UK. Fitch tested a number of rating
sensitivities including a 15% weighted average recovery rate (WARR)
reduction, broadly equivalent to the RR achieved in the
transaction's recent repossessions. The outcome of this sensitivity
showed a nine-notch reduction in the model-implied rating (MIR).
ES06-4's class D notes benefit from stronger, albeit still
weakening, asset performance and a significantly higher reserve
fund, which dampens their sensitivity to stresses. For example, a
15% WARR reduction results in a three-notch reduction in the MIR.
This led to the affirmation of ES06-4's notes with a Stable
Outlook.
Deteriorating Asset Performance: The proportion of loans in arrears
for both transactions have increased since the last review.
ES06-2's total arrears have increased to 33.9% from 28.5% at the
previous review. ES06-4's total arrears have increased to 25.9%
from 21.9%. Further deterioration of asset performance remains a
risk to both transactions due to persistently high interest rates
and inflationary pressure, and this may lead to lower MIR at future
reviews.
Increased CE: Credit enhancement (CE) has increased for all notes
in both transactions as they continue to amortise sequentially. CE
for ES06-2's senior class has increased to 84.8% and to 92.5% for
ES06-4's senior class. The continued build-up of CE supports the
affirmation of the notes in both transactions, despite the
worsening asset performance.
Both transactions are paying principal sequentially, and Fitch does
not expect them to return to pro-rata amortisation. The trigger
preventing a switch measures outstanding amounts against the
outstanding pool balance and has been breached by a large margin.
Fitch does not expect the ratio to reduce as outstanding amounts,
which include fees, charges, ground rent payments, solicitor costs
and payments towards insurance, as well as shortfalls in borrowers'
contractual monthly installments are likely to increase as a
percentage of the collateral balance as the outstanding pool
balance gradually pays off.
Senior Fees Remain High: Fitch notes high senior fee expenses
continue to be incurred by both transactions, likely a result of
Libor transition costs. Although senior fees have fallen since its
previous analysis, the decline has not been as fast as anticipated.
Fitch has maintained its annual senior fee assumption of
GBP300,000, approximately equivalent to the fees incurred in the
period immediately prior to the completion of the Libor
transition.
Should senior fees remain elevated, Fitch may increase its
assumption in future reviews, which could have an adverse impact on
the ratings of the notes in both transactions.
PAF: The performance adjustment factor (PAF) for both transactions
was floored at the previous review's levels so that the 'Bsf'
weighted average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) more accurately
reflected Fitch's default expectations for the pool at that rating.
For ES06-2, this resulted in applied PAFs of 119% and 200% for the
owner occupied (OO) and buy to let (BTL) sub-pools, while for
ES06-4 the PAFs applied were 100% for the OO and 161% for the BTL
sub-pools.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transactions' performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing levels of
delinquencies and defaults and could reduce the CE available to the
notes.
Fitch conducted sensitivity analyses by stressing each
transaction's base case WAFF and WARR assumptions, and by examining
the rating implications for all notes. A 15% increase in the WAFF
and a 15% decrease in the WARR could lead to downgrades of three
notches for ES06-2's class D1a and D1c notes, and a three-notch
downgrade for ES06-4's class D1a and D1c notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing CE and potential upgrades.
Fitch tested an additional rating sensitivity scenario by applying
a decrease in the WAFF of 15% and an increase in the WARR of 15%.
The results indicate upgrades of seven notches for ES06-2's class
E1c notes, and two notches for ES06-4's class D1a and D1c notes.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. Fitch has not reviewed the results of
any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pools ahead of the transaction's initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transactions over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
ES06-2 and ES06-4have an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer
Welfare - Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security. This is due to
the pools having an interest-only maturity concentration of legacy
non-conforming owner-occupied loans of greater than 20%, which has
a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
ES06-2 and ES06-4have an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human
Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability. This is due to
a significant portion of the pools containing owner-occupied loans
advanced with limited affordability checks, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
I-LOGIC TECHNOLOGIES: S&P Affirms 'B' ICR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed all its ratings, including the 'B'
issuer credit rating and first-lien issue-level ratings despite the
increase in leverage on U.K.-based capital markets data and
software solutions provider ION Analytics (I-Logic Technologies
Bidco Ltd.; ION).
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that ION will
continue to execute cost synergies and the roll-off of deferred
consideration payments will result in leverage declining to the 8x
area in 2024 from 9.8x in 2023 with further improvement in 2025.
ION's opportunistic financing transaction will shift its floating
versus fixed funding mix more favorably in the near term. The $500
million notes offering to refinance a portion of the U.S dollar and
euro tranches of its existing term loan B will provide about $5
million of cash interest savings and increase the fixed percentage
of debt in ION's capital structure to 32% from 15%. The transaction
provides modest cash flow benefits and increases the predictability
of interest costs in a highly leveraged capital structure. However,
the incremental credit risk from the nearly $50 million increase in
absolute debt negates the benefit of interest savings and increases
leverage to the 8x area, from S&P's prior expectations of mid-7x by
year-end 2024. This is in line with the entity's risk appetite and
tolerance for elevated leverage.
While leverage of over 7x is often indicative of lower ratings,
ION's solid revenue visibility from its software as a service
(SaaS) business model and growth prospects, high EBITDA margins,
and good free cash conversion provide it with sufficient payback
credit measures--such as free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt of
about 4%-5% in 2024 and 2025--to support the current rating.
ION's integration efforts continue to take precedence and thus
revenue growth has remained in the 5%-6% area. For the quarter
ended June 30, 2024, annual contract value (ACV) increased 4% on a
year-over-year basis with total revenue growth of 4% largely due to
a decline in non-recurring revenue (about 7% of total revenues)
which is transactional in nature and tied to market activity. ION
is prudently prioritizing integration and operational improvements
rather than chasing near-term revenue growth. Since 2021, the
integration of Acuris has been at the forefront of its efforts
which included a reorganization of its sales force, improving the
reporting structure of various administrative functions, and
centralizing certain aspects such as invoicing and collections at
the ION group level. S&P expects much of the same through 2024.
While our current 2024 and 2025 revenue growth forecast is in the
6% area, it continues to have a favorable view of the business's
longer-term growth prospects because of its product suite,
proprietary data sets, and technical capabilities.
ION Analytics relationship with its parent, ION Investment Corp.
S.a.r.l., remains strong. Our forecast continues to expect excess
cash flow at the ION Analytics entity level to be distributed to
its parent entity, ION Investment Corp S.a.r.l., which provides
support to four additional entities. S&P said, "We assess the
group's overall creditworthiness as broadly in line with that of
three of its 'B' rated subsidiaries (Ion Corporates, Ion Analytics,
and Ion Core Banking), and somewhat stronger than that of 'B-'
rated Ion Markets and Ion InsightScore. We continue to believe the
parent entity would likely provide extraordinary support in most
foreseeable circumstances if ION Analytics encountered financial
distress." This is further evidenced by the parent entity
supporting the March 2024 deferred consideration payment related to
Acuris.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that ION will
continue to execute cost synergies and the roll-off of deferred
consideration payments will result in leverage in the 8x area in
2024, with further improvement in 2025.
LUDGATE FUNDING 2007 FF1: Fitch Affirms B-sf Rating on Cl. E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed all tranches of Ludgate Funding Plc
Series 2006 FF1 (LF 2006), Ludgate Funding Plc Series 2007 FF1 (LF
2007) and Ludgate Funding Plc's Series 2008-W1 (LF 2008), as
detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Ludgate Funding Plc's
Series 2008-W1
Class A1 XS0354148511 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A2b XS0353589947 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Bb XS0353591927 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Cb XS0353594863 LT AA-sf Affirmed AA-sf
Class D XS0353596215 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
Class E XS0353684698 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
Ludgate Funding Plc
Series 2006 FF1
Class A2a XS0274267862 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A2b XS0274271203 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Ba XS0274268241 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Bb XS0274271898 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class C XS0274272359 LT AA-sf Affirmed AA-sf
Class D XS0274272862 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
Class E XS0274269645 LT BBsf Affirmed BBsf
Ludgate Funding Plc
Series 2007 FF1
Class A2a XS0304503534 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A2b XS0304504003 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Bb XS0304508681 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class Cb XS0304509739 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
Class Da XS0304510158 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
Class Db XS0304512105 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
Class E XS0304515546 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Class Ma XS0304504698 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Mb XS0304505232 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
The transactions are secured by loans originated by Wave (formerly
Freedom Funding Limited) and purchased by Merrill Lynch
International Bank Limited. The loans are buy-to-let and
non-conforming owner-occupied and secured against properties
located in England and Wales.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Asset Performance Deterioration: LF 2007 and LF 2008 had one month
plus arrears of 10.1% and 14.7%, respectively, as at 24 March 2023,
while LF 2006's were 7.6% as at 23 May 2023. Three-month plus
arrears in LF 2006, LF 2007 and LF 2008 were 5.9%, 7.0% and 10.8%
at the same dates. Arrears have significantly increased in all
three transactions since the last review. However, they compare
favourably with the non-conforming index. This increase in arrears
led to higher weighted average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) being
applied in the analysis.
Increasing CE: LF 2006 and LF 2008 recently switched to sequential
amortisation due to the non-amortising reserve funds not being at
target. LF 2007's reserve fund is at target and the transaction
continues amortising pro rata. It has a hard sequential switch back
trigger when the notes fall below 10% of their initial balance. The
affirmations reflect the increase in credit enhancement (CE) for
the notes in all transactions, including in LF 2007 due to its
non-amortising reserve fund. The increased CE compensates for the
higher WAFF applied in the analysis and resulted in the affirmation
of all notes.
Ratings Below MIR: Fitch expects the recent deterioration in
performance and increase in arrears to continue and may result in
higher WAFF in future reviews. Fitch also observes that the notes'
model-implied ratings (MIR) may be sensitive to lower recovery
rates than that calculated by Fitch's ResiGlobal model: UK. Fitch
has observed lower recovery rates than expected in some
non-conforming transactions recently.
Consequently, the rating for LF 2006's class Ba to E notes are one
to three notches lower than the MIR, LF 2007's class Ma to E notes
are one to four notches lower than the MIR, and LF 2008's class Bb
to E notes are one to three notches lower than the MIR.
Excessive Counterparty Exposure: The reserve fund provides more
than 50% of class E CE in LF 2008, so Fitch believes that these
notes are potentially exposed to excessive counterparty risk. It is
unlikely that these notes could achieve a rating above the
transaction account bank's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(Barclays Bank plc; A+/Stable). As this is currently above the
notes' rating of 'BBB+sf', the counterparty exposure does not
impact the ratings.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Declines in recoveries could result in lower net proceeds, which
may make certain notes susceptible to negative rating action
depending on the extent of the decline in recoveries. Fitch
conducts sensitivity analyses by stressing both a transaction's
base-case FF and recovery rate (RR) assumptions, and examining the
rating implications on all classes of issued notes. For example, a
15% weighted average (WA) FF increase and 15% WARR decrease would
result in downgrades of up to one notch for the class E notes in LF
2007 and LF 2008, and more than five notches in LF 2006.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing CE and potential further
upgrades. Fitch tested an additional rating sensitivity scenario by
applying a decrease in the WAFF of 15% and an increase in the WARR
of 15%, implying upgrades of no more than eight notches for the
class E notes in all three transactions.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Ludgate Funding Plc Series 2006 FF1, Ludgate Funding Plc Series
2007 FF1, Ludgate Funding Plc's Series 2008-W1
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. Fitch has not reviewed the results of
any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pool[s] ahead of the transactions' initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transaction[s] over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Ludgate 06, 07 and 08 each has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
customer welfare - fair messaging, privacy & data security due to a
material concentration of interest-only loans, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
Ludgate 06, 07 and 08 each has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
human rights, community relations, access & affordability due to
mortgage pools with limited affordability checks and self-certified
income, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is
relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
OAT HILL NO.3: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class F Notes to 'B+sf'
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Oat Hill No.3 PLC's (OH3) class E and F
notes. The remaining tranches have been affirmed.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Oat Hill No.3 PLC
A XS2639038384 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B XS2639039192 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
C XS2639039275 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class A Loan LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
D XS2639039606 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
E XS2639065601 LT BB+sf Upgrade BBsf
F XS2639066088 LT B+sf Upgrade B-sf
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
OH3 is a securitisation of buy-to-let and owner-occupied
residential mortgage assets originated by Capital Home Loans
Limited and secured against properties in the UK. The assets were
securitised in Oat Hill No.2 plc and in Oat Hill No.1 plc.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Analytical Error Correction: At closing, Fitch's cash flow analysis
included an incorrect modelling of the liquidity reserve fund (LRF)
release condition. According to the transaction documents, LRF
amounts are released to principal available funds at the notes'
legal final maturity date. However, the LRF was modelled
incorrectly and funds were not distributed at maturity. Other LRF
release conditions, such as the redemption of the class F notes,
were correctly modelled.
As a result of the error, principal available funds at the legal
final maturity date were understated, resulting in lower
model-implied ratings (MIR) for the class C to F notes. Fitch has
updated its analysis to reflect the correct modelling of the LRF as
of the May 2024 interest payment date. This correction has had a
positive impact on the ratings, resulting in a one-notch and
two-notch upgrade of the class E and F notes, respectively.
Ratings Below MIR: Notwithstanding the error correction, the class
C and D notes remain three notches below their MIRs, while the
class E and F notes are four notches below their MIRs. Fitch
conducted a forward-looking analysis to account for the
transaction's underperformance, running scenarios that assumed
increased losses at all rating levels. This analysis aimed to
account for observed asset performance deterioration both in
increased arrears and lower than expected recoveries. Increased
arrears are likely to lead to higher future foreclosures as the
servicer takes action to work out delinquent loans.
The scenarios included a 15% decrease in the weighted average (WA)
recovery rates (RR) and reflect Fitch's expectation that ratings
may be lower at future model updates.
Increasing CE: The rating actions reflect Fitch's view that the
notes are sufficiently protected by credit enhancement (CE) to
absorb the projected losses at their respective ratings. Fitch
expects the CE ratios in the transactions to continue building up
due to the sequential amortisation of the notes. For example, CE
for class A notes has increased to 15.4% from 14.1% at closing.
Worsening Asset Performance: The transaction's one-month-plus and
three-month-plus arrears have increased since closing, standing at
9.3% and 6.5% as of the May 2024 interest payment date (from 5.5%
and 3.0% at closing). Fitch believes that the sustained increase in
arrears could lead to a higher number of possession claims.
Recovery Rate Weakness: The transaction reports
weaker-than-expected recoveries, which is commonly observed with
legacy UK assets. The reported loss severity of 22.9% translates to
a RR below that calculated by Fitch's ResiGlobal model: UK in the
expected case. Fitch has assigned ratings at a level robust to an
adjusted RR to account for lower recoveries.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce CE available to the notes.
Additionally, unanticipated declines in recoveries could result in
lower net proceeds, which may make certain notes susceptible to
negative rating action, depending on the extent of the decline in
recoveries. Fitch found that a 15% WA foreclosure frequency (FF)
increase and a 15% WARR decrease would result in downgrades of one
notch for the class A, B, C and D notes. The sensitivity has no
rating impact on the other notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance, driven by stable
delinquencies and defaults, would lead to increasing CE and
potentially upgrades. A decrease in the WAFF of 15% and an increase
in the WARR of 15% would result in upgrades of one notch for the
class B notes, four notches for the class C notes, six notches for
the class D notes, eight notches for the class E notes and nine
notches for the class F notes. The class A notes are rated 'AAAsf',
which is the highest level on Fitch's scale and cannot be
upgraded.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch reviewed the results of a
third party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information
and concluded that there were no findings that affected the rating
analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week July 22 to July 26, 2024
-------------------------------------------------------
Issuer Coupon Maturity Currency Price
------ ------ -------- -------- -----
Altice France Holding SA 10.500 5/15/2027 USD 36.792
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 11.000 9/30/2026 EUR 45.455
Solocal Group 10.719 3/15/2025 EUR 21.576
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 12.750 11/30/2027 EUR 0.388
Fastator AB 12.500 9/26/2025 SEK 34.681
Oscar Properties Holding A 11.270 7/5/2024 SEK 0.190
Turkiye Government Bond 10.400 10/13/2032 TRY 49.000
UBS AG/London 17.500 2/7/2025 USD 12.510
Tinkoff Bank JSC Via TCS F 11.002 USD 42.854
Fastator AB 12.500 9/25/2026 SEK 34.381
Bilt Paper BV 10.360 USD 1.751
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 13.625 11/30/2027 USD 1.000
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 13.625 11/30/2027 USD 1.000
Marginalen Bank Bankaktieb 12.695 SEK 45.007
Kvalitena AB publ 10.067 4/2/2024 SEK 45.000
Ilija Batljan Invest AB 10.470 SEK 5.000
Bakkegruppen AS 11.720 2/3/2025 NOK 45.396
Plusplus Capital Financial 11.000 7/29/2026 EUR 10.534
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 11.000 9/30/2026 EUR 45.455
IOG Plc 13.217 9/20/2024 EUR 7.831
Avangardco Investments Pub 10.000 10/29/2018 USD 0.108
Saderea DAC 12.500 11/30/2026 USD 49.141
UkrLandFarming PLC 10.875 3/26/2018 USD 1.983
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 11.750 2/9/2022 USD 0.628
R-Logitech Finance SA 10.250 9/26/2027 EUR 15.000
Sidetur Finance BV 10.000 4/20/2016 USD 0.429
Societe Generale SA 20.000 9/18/2026 USD 12.500
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.500 1/28/2018 USD 0.010
Solocal Group 10.719 3/15/2025 EUR 9.389
Transcapitalbank JSC Via T 10.000 USD 1.450
Immigon Portfolioabbau AG 10.055 EUR 4.534
Solarnative GmbH 12.250 4/5/2029 EUR 21.110
Altice France Holding SA 10.500 5/15/2027 USD 37.636
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 11.000 2/9/2021 USD 0.641
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 12/30/2024 EUR 9.410
Fastator AB 12.500 9/24/2027 SEK 34.752
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.900 9/27/2024 EUR 9.330
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.250 1/23/2018 USD 3.757
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.875 2/28/2018 USD 5.275
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.500 1/28/2018 USD 0.010
KPNQwest NV 10.000 3/15/2012 EUR 0.817
Goldman Sachs Internationa 16.288 3/17/2027 USD 24.750
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 22.000 8/6/2024 USD 12.100
Bilt Paper BV 10.360 USD 1.751
Societe Generale SA 15.600 8/25/2026 USD 39.830
Societe Generale SA 20.000 7/21/2026 USD 3.400
Raiffeisen Switzerland BV 16.000 3/4/2025 CHF 25.740
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.700 9/27/2024 EUR 7.900
Vontobel Financial Product 16.350 2/7/2025 EUR 23.206
Phosphorus Holdco PLC 10.000 4/1/2019 GBP 0.457
Bulgaria Steel Finance BV 12.000 5/4/2013 EUR 0.216
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/24/2037 UAH 35.477
UBS AG/London 28.000 9/23/2024 USD 2.360
Societe Generale SA 18.000 8/30/2024 USD 33.800
UBS AG 10.000 7/29/2025 USD 34.160
Bank Vontobel AG 11.000 4/11/2025 CHF 46.400
NTRP Via Interpipe Ltd 10.250 8/2/2017 USD 1.011
Societe Generale SA 14.000 8/8/2024 USD 38.803
UBS AG/London 11.200 8/26/2024 USD 20.510
Finca Uco Cjsc 12.000 2/10/2025 AMD 0.000
Societe Generale SA 11.000 7/14/2026 USD 13.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 1/22/2025 CHF 19.390
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.400 9/27/2024 EUR 45.160
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 6/27/2025 EUR 14.340
Leonteq Securities AG 21.000 10/30/2024 CHF 38.510
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 8/21/2024 CHF 41.640
Societe Generale SA 27.300 10/20/2025 USD 7.720
UBS AG/London 20.000 11/29/2024 USD 17.870
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 12/30/2024 EUR 8.800
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 12.750 11/30/2027 EUR 0.388
UkrLandFarming PLC 10.875 3/26/2018 USD 1.983
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 2/16/2037 UAH 32.780
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 3/24/2037 UAH 32.789
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/1/2037 UAH 32.795
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/8/2037 UAH 32.802
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/20/2037 UAH 33.062
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/23/2037 UAH 32.820
BLT Finance BV 12.000 2/10/2015 USD 10.500
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 11.750 2/9/2022 USD 0.628
Tonon Luxembourg SA 12.500 5/14/2024 USD 2.215
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.875 1/13/2020 USD 36.000
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.875 1/13/2020 USD 36.000
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/30/2024 USD 21.000
Societe Generale SA 18.000 8/30/2024 USD 19.400
Societe Generale SA 15.000 8/30/2024 USD 18.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 3/11/2025 CHF 27.050
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 2/27/2026 EUR 18.520
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 2/27/2026 EUR 19.910
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.300 6/27/2025 EUR 23.180
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.600 6/27/2025 EUR 27.370
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.400 3/28/2025 EUR 25.560
Bank Vontobel AG 14.000 3/5/2025 CHF 26.500
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 18.500 3/28/2025 EUR 25.890
Vontobel Financial Product 16.000 3/28/2025 EUR 23.355
Vontobel Financial Product 29.200 1/17/2025 EUR 39.897
Swissquote Bank Europe SA 25.320 2/26/2025 CHF 51.520
Evocabank CJSC 11.000 9/28/2024 AMD 8.850
UBS AG/London 21.600 8/2/2027 SEK 32.930
Societe Generale SA 15.110 10/31/2024 USD 21.500
Societe Generale SA 15.000 9/29/2025 USD 8.400
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.550 8/18/2025 USD 24.620
Vontobel Financial Product 26.450 1/24/2025 EUR 21.870
Societe Generale SA 20.000 1/29/2026 USD 9.800
Societe Generale SA 14.300 8/22/2024 USD #N/A N/A
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.300 9/27/2024 EUR 26.250
Societe Generale SA 20.000 10/3/2024 USD #N/A N/A
Armenian Economy Developme 10.500 5/4/2025 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 18.000 8/21/2024 CHF 51.130
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 7/25/2012 EUR 0.100
Teksid Aluminum Luxembourg 12.375 7/15/2011 EUR 0.619
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.750 3/1/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Petromena ASA 10.850 11/19/2018 USD 0.622
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.900 11/16/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 10/8/2008 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 18.250 10/2/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 10/28/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.400 6/12/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 5/22/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 15.000 6/4/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 23.300 9/16/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.000 7/4/2011 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 12/26/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 10/23/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 10/22/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.150 10/30/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.100 11/12/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.500 8/9/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 6/29/2009 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 15.000 3/30/2011 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.500 11/28/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.900 9/15/2008 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 3/27/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/19/2011 USD 0.100
Sidetur Finance BV 10.000 4/20/2016 USD 0.429
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.500 4/24/2026 EUR 19.650
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 4/24/2026 EUR 21.130
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.700 2/17/2025 EUR 26.130
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.700 2/3/2025 EUR 25.890
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 1/2/2026 EUR 17.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 12.030
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/2/2026 EUR 23.630
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 25.000 9/27/2024 EUR 28.890
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.500 9/23/2024 EUR 25.730
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/1/2024 USD 12.500
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/1/2024 USD 23.300
Societe Generale SA 15.000 8/1/2024 USD 19.400
EFG International Finance 10.300 8/23/2024 USD 11.950
Societe Generale SA 22.750 10/17/2024 USD 20.610
Erste Group Bank AG 14.500 5/31/2026 EUR 37.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 4/24/2026 EUR 23.470
Swissquote Bank SA 15.740 10/31/2024 CHF 34.990
Vontobel Financial Product 13.000 12/31/2024 EUR 48.790
Vontobel Financial Product 14.750 12/31/2024 EUR 47.420
Inecobank CJSC 10.000 4/28/2025 AMD 0.000
UBS AG/London 13.000 9/30/2024 CHF 21.680
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.500 12/31/2024 EUR 12.880
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 46.380
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 23.000 9/27/2024 EUR 41.370
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/3/2025 EUR 49.950
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 1/3/2025 EUR 46.410
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/3/2025 EUR 44.330
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 22.000 1/3/2025 EUR 38.860
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 6/27/2025 EUR 47.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 6/27/2025 EUR 18.610
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 27.000 9/27/2024 EUR 46.660
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 6/27/2025 EUR 20.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.100 12/31/2024 EUR 47.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 9/27/2024 EUR 49.520
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 9/27/2024 EUR 43.750
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 1/3/2025 EUR 47.790
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 1/3/2025 EUR 41.140
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 25.000 1/3/2025 EUR 37.250
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 6/27/2025 EUR 16.160
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/16/2025 CHF 45.690
Vontobel Financial Product 20.250 12/31/2024 EUR 19.830
Vontobel Financial Product 16.500 12/31/2024 EUR 46.230
Vontobel Financial Product 18.500 12/31/2024 EUR 45.300
Vontobel Financial Product 20.250 12/31/2024 EUR 44.420
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 16.500 12/27/2024 EUR 17.440
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 1/3/2025 EUR 41.510
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.500 1/2/2026 EUR 15.820
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 15.500 12/31/2024 EUR 44.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.250 9/25/2024 EUR 15.350
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 3/28/2025 EUR 44.120
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 3/28/2025 EUR 40.810
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 3/28/2025 EUR 38.470
Leonteq Securities AG 25.000 1/3/2025 CHF 52.380
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 10/2/2024 CHF 44.970
Leonteq Securities AG 21.000 1/3/2025 CHF 31.280
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 19.000 10/2/2024 CHF 57.260
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 24.000 11/22/2024 EUR 39.670
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.200 12/31/2024 EUR 12.580
Societe Generale SA 20.000 12/18/2025 USD 21.900
UBS AG/London 14.250 8/19/2024 CHF 27.920
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.600 9/27/2024 EUR 14.590
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/9/2025 CHF 32.480
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 1/9/2025 CHF 40.300
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 9/27/2024 EUR 30.550
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.800 9/27/2024 EUR 29.270
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.800 9/27/2024 EUR 28.280
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.900 9/27/2024 EUR 27.400
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 26.600
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.100 9/27/2024 EUR 25.880
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.900 8/23/2024 EUR 42.610
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.800 2/28/2025 EUR 48.420
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.700 8/23/2024 EUR 29.180
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.500 11/22/2024 EUR 32.740
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.100 2/28/2025 EUR 36.710
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 2/28/2025 EUR 35.970
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.500 2/28/2025 EUR 35.100
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 25.000 9/5/2024 EUR 44.950
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 24.000 9/5/2024 CHF 45.640
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/4/2024 CHF 43.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.100 12/31/2024 EUR 30.470
UniCredit Bank GmbH 20.000 12/31/2024 EUR 29.350
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/30/2024 CHF 47.830
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.100 9/27/2024 EUR 39.530
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.400 9/27/2024 EUR 37.580
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.400 12/31/2024 EUR 48.880
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 8/7/2024 CHF 7.730
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 30.000 8/7/2024 CHF 35.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.500 12/31/2024 EUR 33.260
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 8/7/2024 CHF 33.410
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.300 12/31/2024 EUR 32.520
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.000 9/25/2024 EUR 13.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.700 9/27/2024 EUR 46.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.500 12/30/2024 EUR 8.450
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.500 9/27/2024 EUR 10.660
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/25/2024 EUR 14.670
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 11/22/2024 EUR 45.160
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.500 11/22/2024 EUR 47.390
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 15.000 1/22/2025 CHF 51.280
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.100 9/5/2024 EUR 35.140
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.000 9/27/2024 EUR 49.410
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 1/24/2025 EUR 10.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.100 9/27/2024 EUR 44.890
UBS AG/London 10.000 3/23/2026 USD 23.010
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 1/3/2025 EUR 38.810
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 1/3/2025 EUR 48.340
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 10.500 1/22/2025 EUR 12.150
Vontobel Financial Product 13.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.620
Vontobel Financial Product 17.000 9/27/2024 EUR 40.520
Vontobel Financial Product 14.000 9/27/2024 EUR 43.690
Armenian Economy Developme 11.000 10/3/2025 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.900 9/27/2024 EUR 41.810
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 12/31/2024 EUR 47.390
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 2/28/2025 EUR 49.110
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 2/28/2025 EUR 46.070
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.900 3/28/2025 EUR 16.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.600 3/28/2025 EUR 41.670
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.200 8/23/2024 EUR 32.340
Vontobel Financial Product 24.500 9/27/2024 EUR 11.871
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 8/28/2024 CHF 46.090
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.900 8/23/2024 EUR 39.770
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.100 12/30/2024 EUR 8.490
Vontobel Financial Product 10.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.130
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.400 9/27/2024 EUR 46.420
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.300 12/31/2024 EUR 31.560
Leonteq Securities AG 28.000 9/5/2024 CHF 41.680
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/5/2024 CHF 44.230
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.500 12/31/2024 EUR 34.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.500 8/23/2024 EUR 35.640
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 8/28/2024 CHF 9.160
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.900 11/22/2024 EUR 47.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.300 9/27/2024 EUR 35.120
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.300 12/30/2024 EUR 34.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.100 12/30/2024 EUR 41.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.750 9/27/2024 EUR 24.010
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/28/2024 CHF 5.640
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 12/30/2024 EUR 28.040
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.800 9/27/2024 EUR 32.110
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 10/16/2024 CHF 27.590
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.500 9/27/2024 EUR 48.880
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.800 9/27/2024 EUR 32.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.200 12/30/2024 EUR 35.710
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 3/28/2025 EUR 39.380
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.600 12/31/2024 EUR 35.490
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 6/27/2025 EUR 12.090
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.700 12/30/2024 EUR 7.800
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.700 11/22/2024 EUR 34.200
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 8/23/2024 EUR 44.600
UniCredit Bank GmbH 17.000 12/31/2024 EUR 41.380
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.800 12/31/2024 EUR 37.350
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.900 9/27/2024 EUR 38.600
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.100 12/30/2024 EUR 37.980
Swissquote Bank SA 23.200 8/28/2024 CHF 44.070
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.200 12/31/2024 EUR 45.180
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.900 12/31/2024 EUR 38.530
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.800 12/31/2024 EUR 28.490
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.700 12/31/2024 EUR 28.140
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.200 11/22/2024 EUR 45.910
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 18.800 9/18/2024 CHF 56.470
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.000 8/23/2024 EUR 30.660
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.000 12/20/2024 EUR 49.570
BNP Paribas Issuance BV 19.000 9/18/2026 EUR 0.980
BNP Paribas Issuance BV 20.000 9/18/2026 EUR 31.500
Finca Uco Cjsc 13.000 5/30/2025 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 9/18/2024 CHF 23.580
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.100 12/31/2024 EUR 43.140
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 12/31/2024 EUR 39.880
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 21.710
Bank Vontobel AG 29.000 9/10/2024 USD 38.900
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.700 9/27/2024 EUR 33.480
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 15.000 12/30/2024 EUR 47.770
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 16.000 12/30/2024 EUR 46.290
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 17.000 12/30/2024 EUR 44.980
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 12.000 12/30/2024 EUR 48.630
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 22.250 6/27/2025 EUR 19.260
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 6/27/2025 EUR 15.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.750 6/27/2025 EUR 12.770
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.250 6/27/2025 EUR 36.070
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.500 6/27/2025 EUR 32.780
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 12/27/2024 CHF 49.320
Leonteq Securities AG 23.000 12/27/2024 CHF 26.960
UBS AG/London 11.250 9/9/2024 CHF 48.300
Vontobel Financial Product 11.000 12/31/2024 EUR 45.350
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.900 8/23/2024 EUR 46.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.600 8/23/2024 EUR 49.210
ACBA Bank OJSC 11.000 12/1/2025 AMD 0.000
Bank Vontobel AG 13.500 1/8/2025 CHF 10.500
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/13/2025 CHF 17.070
Ameriabank CJSC 10.000 2/20/2025 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.000 11/22/2024 EUR 49.740
Bank Vontobel AG 10.000 9/2/2024 EUR 46.600
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 23.290 8/29/2024 CHF 45.550
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 12.000 9/4/2024 CHF 49.730
Basler Kantonalbank 22.000 9/6/2024 CHF 41.050
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 10.750 12/27/2024 EUR 14.080
Vontobel Financial Product 20.000 9/27/2024 EUR 48.540
Bank Vontobel AG 20.500 11/4/2024 CHF 52.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.500 1/24/2025 EUR 36.090
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.110
Vontobel Financial Product 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 47.390
Vontobel Financial Product 13.500 9/27/2024 EUR 50.090
Vontobel Financial Product 24.500 9/27/2024 EUR 49.690
Vontobel Financial Product 20.500 9/27/2024 EUR 42.230
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 8/13/2024 CHF 50.240
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/25/2024 EUR 13.860
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 9/26/2024 USD 15.000
Corner Banca SA 18.500 9/23/2024 CHF 7.560
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 20.000 9/27/2024 EUR 9.020
Swissquote Bank SA 16.380 7/31/2024 CHF 7.050
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.800 12/30/2024 EUR 33.860
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.200 12/30/2024 EUR 38.910
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 31.230
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.100 9/27/2024 EUR 37.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.000 3/28/2025 EUR 42.280
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 12/30/2024 EUR 17.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.800 8/23/2024 EUR 34.720
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.100 10/25/2024 EUR 36.770
Vontobel Financial Product 12.000 9/27/2024 EUR 47.770
Vontobel Financial Product 21.000 9/27/2024 EUR 36.700
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 24.000 8/14/2024 CHF 29.550
Vontobel Financial Product 14.100 7/28/2026 EUR 27.645
Swissquote Bank SA 27.050 7/31/2024 CHF 43.070
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.500 9/27/2024 EUR 47.920
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.300 9/27/2024 EUR 29.500
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.000 3/28/2025 EUR 37.000
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.100 3/28/2025 EUR 37.660
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 21.000 8/14/2024 CHF 37.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 9/27/2024 EUR 7.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 12/30/2024 EUR 17.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.200 12/30/2024 EUR 7.250
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.000 3/28/2025 EUR 21.270
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.300 3/28/2025 EUR 10.720
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.400 3/28/2025 EUR 9.700
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 8/23/2024 EUR 30.930
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.200 10/25/2024 EUR 41.370
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.000 11/22/2024 EUR 41.980
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 12.000 10/11/2024 EUR 49.800
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 11/22/2024 EUR 41.250
Vontobel Financial Product 13.250 9/27/2024 EUR 41.650
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 1/24/2025 EUR 42.190
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 8/14/2024 CHF 16.780
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 26.000 7/31/2024 CHF 37.270
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 8/7/2024 CHF 22.790
UBS AG/London 15.750 10/21/2024 CHF 44.100
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 1/3/2025 EUR 30.840
UBS AG/London 14.500 10/14/2024 CHF 41.600
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 13.000 10/21/2024 EUR 47.800
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 15.000 9/12/2024 USD 5.070
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.300 8/23/2024 EUR 45.070
UBS AG/London 13.500 8/15/2024 CHF 43.500
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 9/27/2024 EUR 49.070
Bank Vontobel AG 10.500 7/29/2024 EUR 46.500
Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd/ 12.720 2/17/2025 CHF 39.200
UBS AG/London 12.000 11/4/2024 EUR 47.650
UBS AG/London 11.590 5/1/2025 USD 9.890
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 19.000 8/8/2024 CHF 33.190
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 38.660
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 12.000 9/3/2024 EUR 49.630
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/25/2024 CHF 46.090
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/25/2024 CHF 22.460
UniCredit Bank GmbH 17.200 12/31/2024 EUR 26.480
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.800 12/31/2024 EUR 25.910
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.600 12/31/2024 EUR 25.680
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/25/2024 CHF 24.660
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.500 4/7/2026 EUR 42.650
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 12/31/2024 EUR 26.170
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 1/3/2025 EUR 33.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 10/24/2025 EUR 18.430
Citigroup Global Markets F 25.530 2/18/2025 EUR 0.040
UBS AG/London 10.500 9/23/2024 EUR 49.650
Bank Vontobel AG 11.000 9/10/2024 EUR 49.300
UBS AG/London 11.250 9/16/2024 EUR 47.300
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.800 9/27/2024 EUR 47.310
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 22.500 9/27/2024 EUR 51.450
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 10/25/2024 EUR 29.800
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 16.800 9/27/2024 EUR 49.820
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.500 9/27/2024 EUR 41.260
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 10/25/2024 EUR 33.110
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.900 11/22/2024 EUR 35.520
ACBA Bank OJSC 11.500 3/1/2026 AMD 0.000
Evocabank CJSC 11.000 9/27/2025 AMD 0.000
Raiffeisen Switzerland BV 12.300 8/21/2024 CHF 6.630
National Mortgage Co RCO C 12.000 3/30/2026 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG 28.000 8/21/2024 CHF 35.980
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/21/2024 CHF 32.490
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 2/28/2025 EUR 38.730
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 8/23/2024 EUR 29.270
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.300 8/23/2024 EUR 32.270
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 8/23/2024 EUR 38.400
Bank Vontobel AG 10.000 8/19/2024 CHF 3.400
Finca Uco Cjsc 13.000 11/16/2024 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 11.000 8/23/2024 EUR 45.590
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.100 8/23/2024 EUR 47.470
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.500 12/30/2024 EUR 34.330
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.900 3/28/2025 EUR 36.370
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.500 8/23/2024 EUR 33.820
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.100 9/27/2024 EUR 49.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.600 9/27/2024 EUR 27.320
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 30.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.800 9/27/2024 EUR 36.560
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.100 12/30/2024 EUR 34.020
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.000 3/28/2025 EUR 36.980
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.300 6/27/2025 EUR 42.080
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.800 8/23/2024 EUR 37.510
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.400 10/25/2024 EUR 39.130
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 51.180
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.100 8/23/2024 EUR 30.230
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.600 11/22/2024 EUR 33.740
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.300 11/22/2024 EUR 39.790
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 9/27/2024 EUR 44.520
EFG International Finance 11.120 12/27/2024 EUR 39.450
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/11/2024 CHF 40.330
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.400 9/27/2024 EUR 42.890
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.400 9/27/2024 EUR 35.160
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 37.490
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.900 9/27/2024 EUR 47.800
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/27/2024 EUR 39.180
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.300 9/27/2024 EUR 33.870
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.900 9/27/2024 EUR 37.140
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.600 9/27/2024 EUR 41.380
Bank Vontobel AG 15.500 11/18/2024 CHF 40.500
Swissquote Bank SA 24.040 9/11/2024 CHF 41.300
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 9/11/2024 CHF 40.250
Leonteq Securities AG 18.000 9/11/2024 CHF 8.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.300 9/27/2024 EUR 49.910
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.500 12/30/2024 EUR 51.200
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.800 8/23/2024 EUR 50.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 12/30/2024 EUR 35.420
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.400 9/27/2024 EUR 33.660
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.100 12/30/2024 EUR 36.760
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.400 12/30/2024 EUR 40.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 6/27/2025 EUR 40.510
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.500 6/27/2025 EUR 43.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.100 3/28/2025 EUR 21.130
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 11/22/2024 EUR 7.680
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.700 11/22/2024 EUR 34.450
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.800 11/22/2024 EUR 37.580
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 10/11/2024 CHF 49.610
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 12.000 10/4/2024 EUR 49.240
Vontobel Financial Product 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 42.020
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 39.080
Vontobel Financial Product 19.500 9/27/2024 EUR 37.850
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.100 12/30/2024 EUR 31.580
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.800 12/30/2024 EUR 36.860
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.100 12/30/2024 EUR 39.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.300 6/27/2025 EUR 40.060
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.800 10/25/2024 EUR 35.820
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.600 11/22/2024 EUR 36.640
Deutsche Bank AG/London 12.780 3/16/2028 TRY 47.202
Deutsche Bank AG/London 14.900 5/30/2028 TRY 49.966
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.432 1/8/2009 ILS 0.100
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.875 2/28/2018 USD 5.275
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.800 8/21/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.250 12/31/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 12/14/2012 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 6/11/2038 JPY 0.100
Banco Espirito Santo SA 10.000 12/6/2021 EUR 0.058
Credit Agricole Corporate 10.200 12/13/2027 TRY 47.284
Tonon Luxembourg SA 12.500 5/14/2024 USD 2.215
PA Resources AB 13.500 3/3/2016 SEK 0.124
Tailwind Energy Chinook Lt 12.500 9/27/2019 USD 1.500
Phosphorus Holdco PLC 10.000 4/1/2019 GBP 0.457
Bulgaria Steel Finance BV 12.000 5/4/2013 EUR 0.216
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.200 5/14/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.600 4/22/2014 MXN 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 11/9/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.442 11/22/2008 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 7/4/2011 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 17.000 6/2/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.500 6/2/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 6/17/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 7/4/2011 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.000 7/13/2037 JPY 0.100
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.600 12/31/2024 EUR 26.840
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.700 6/27/2025 EUR 21.490
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.000 6/27/2025 EUR 24.900
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 18.700 6/27/2025 EUR 26.650
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S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for
members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription
or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter Chapman at 215-945-7000.
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