/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/240805.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Monday, August 5, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 156
Headlines
A R M E N I A
ARMENIA: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
E S T O N I A
IUTE GROUP: Fitch Assigns 'B-' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
ELO (AUCHAN HOLDING): S&P Downgrades ICR to 'BB', Outlook Negative
FORVIA: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'BB' LT ICR
G E R M A N Y
D.V.I. DEUTSCHE: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
NORIA DE 2024: Moody's Assigns B2 Rating to EUR22MM Class F Notes
I R E L A N D
ALBACORE EURO IV: Moody's Gives Ba2 Rating to EUR21.7MM E-R Notes
AVOCA CLO XVIII: Moody's Raises Rating on EUR14.5MM F Notes to Ba3
CABINTEELY PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
CLONMORE PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F-R Notes
CUMULUS STATIC 2023-1: Fitch Affirms 'BB-sf' Rating on Cl. E Notes
EDMONDSTOWN PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
GRIFFITH PARK: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class E Notes to 'B+sf'
TRINITAS EURO II: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating to Cl. F-RR Notes
S P A I N
AERNNOVA AEROSPACE: Fitch Assigns 'B+' Final Rating on Sr. Sec TLB
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
DIGNITY FINANCE: S&P Affirms 'B+ (sf)' Rating on Class A Notes
GALAXY FINCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
STONEGATE PUB: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR, Outlook Remains Negative
TIC BIDCO: S&P Assigns 'B-' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Positive
X X X X X X X X
[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week July 29 to August 2, 2024
- - - - -
=============
A R M E N I A
=============
ARMENIA: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Outlook.
Key Rating Drivers
Credit Fundamentals: Armenia's 'BB-' rating reflects per-capita
income and governance indicators that are in line with peers,
strong growth prospects, and a robust macroeconomic policy
framework. Set against these strengths are a wide fiscal deficit
relative to peers, relatively weak external finances, high
financial sector dollarisation, and geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical Risks: Armenia is negotiating a peace agreement with
Azerbaijan following its complete loss of territorial control over
Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. In Fitch's view, a comprehensive peace
agreement will be challenging, owing to Azerbaijan's demands for
Armenia to establish a transit corridor through its territory and
changes to its constitution, which will be politically difficult to
agree to. Its base case does not include an escalation of the
conflict, even though Azerbaijani troops continue to have a
presence inside Armenian territory, and there have been sporadic
exchanges of fire.
Relations with Russia appear to have worsened, with Armenia
suspending participation in and budgetary contributions to the
Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, while engaging
in military exercises with the US. However, trade links with Russia
remain strong, and dependence on Russia for energy security is very
high. Fitch does not expect secondary US, UK or EU sanctions on
Armenia, and expects Armenia's financial sector to comply with
sanctions targeting Russia.
Continued High Growth: Economic growth continues to benefit from
spill-overs from strong inward migration from Russia, Belarus,
Ukraine and now Nagorno-Karabakh. Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2023 and
remained strong at 9.2% yoy in 1Q24. The tourism and information
and communication technology sectors are expected to be important
drivers of growth, while commencement of the Amulsar gold mine's
operations from 2025 will be positive for exports and growth. Fitch
expects growth to reach 6% in 2024, 5.5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.
Fiscal Expansion: Authorities have increased expenditure to meet
the needs of the refugee population, as well as on defence and
other capex projects (where there has been historical
under-execution). Fitch therefore expects the general government
deficit to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2024 (2023: 1.9%; current 'BB'
median: 2.6%). In 2025, the introduction of a universal healthcare
system will lead to additional expenditure pressures, causing the
deficit to increase to a projected 5.4% of GDP. Fitch expects the
deficit to moderate to 4.2% of GDP in 2026 as refugee-related
expenses taper off and new taxes boost revenue.
Rising Debt, High FX Risk: Fitch expects wider deficits will lift
general government debt/GDP to 48.7% by end-2024 from 48.1% in
2023, and stabilise at 50.5% by 2026. This is higher than
previously projected, but remains below the 'BB' median of 55.2%.
Fitch expects the authorities will refinance a USD313 million
Eurobond maturing in 1H25 in international markets, and raise the
bulk of larger financing requirements with official creditor
support and in the local market. Currency risk is the largest
medium-term risk to debt dynamics, given that as of May 2024, 53%
of debt was foreign-currency-denominated.
Weakening External Finances: Fitch expects the current account
deficit (CAD) will widen to 4.3% of GDP in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025,
from 2.1% in 2023, given fiscal loosening, a significant capex
pipeline and strong domestic consumption. Fitch believes that the
large influx of remittances and other money transfers from migrants
seen in 2021-22 will not be repeated, although a meaningful outflow
is also not expected. Foreign-currency reserves stood at USD3.3
billion as of June 2024, below the August 2023 peak of USD4.2
billion. This is equivalent to 2.8 months of projected current
external payments, below the 'BB' median of 4.5 months, although
Armenia's flexible exchange rate is a buffer to shocks.
Banking Sector Dollarisation: The banking sector is marked by
relatively high dollarization, although as of May 2024, deposit
dollarisation had fallen by 4.6pp from end-2022 to 50.4%. Loan
dollarisation remains largely stable at around 34%, despite the
Central Bank of Armenia phasing out new foreign-currency mortgages
in 2023. Banks have adequate dram and foreign-currency liquidity
(liquid assets making up 33% of total assets), strong asset quality
(regulatory non-performing ratio of 1.1%), and high capitalisation
(regulatory capital adequacy ratio of 20%) and good profitability
(return on equity of 28%) as of May 2024.
Low but Rising Inflation: The economy emerged from six months of
deflation in May 2024, when prices grew by 0.3% yoy and further to
0.8% in June. Fitch expects inflation to rise to 1.3% by year-end
(2024 average: 0.3%), and reach the 4% target in 2026, given its
expectation of dram depreciation. Authorities have cut the
refinancing rate by 75bp to 8% since the start of 2024; in Fitch's
opinion, the loosening cycle has ended. Pass-through of monetary
policy is somewhat constrained by relatively high dollarisation.
Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for both Political
Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and
Regulatory Quality, and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect
the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI)
have in its proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Armenia has a
medium WBGI ranking at the 44th percentile, reflecting a moderate
level of rights for participation in the political process,
relatively high geopolitical risks, moderate levels of political
stability, moderate institutional capacity and rule of law, and a
moderate level of corruption.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Public Finances: Macroeconomic or policy developments that result
in a rapid increase in general government debt/GDP.
External Finances: A sizeable and sustained decline in
international reserves.
Structural: Materialisation of geopolitical risks that undermine
political and economic stability.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Macro: Increased confidence in the sustainability of high growth
rates relative to peers, for example, due to durable decline in
geopolitical risks, that results in a sustained increase in GDP per
capita over time.
Public Finances: Fiscal consolidation that supports a decline in
general government debt/GDP, and deepening of local-currency
funding sources that durably reduces the FX proportion of
government debt.
Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Armenia a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR
scale.
Fitch's sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from
the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.
Country Ceiling
The Country Ceiling for Armenia is 'BB', 1 notch above the
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR. This reflects moderate constraints
and incentives, relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange
controls being imposed that would prevent or significantly impede
the private sector from converting local currency into foreign
currency and transferring the proceeds to non-resident creditors to
service debt payments.
Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of
+1 notch above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a
qualitative adjustment to the model result.
ESG Considerations
Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability
and Rights as World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators have the
highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to
the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Armenia
has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance
Indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators have the highest weight
in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and
a key rating driver with a high weight. As Armenia has a percentile
rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.
Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4+' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators is relevant to the
rating and a rating driver. As Armenia has a percentile rank above
50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive
impact on the credit profile.
Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4+' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Armenia, as for all sovereigns. As Armenia
has a record of 20+ years without a restructuring of public debt
and captured in its SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the
credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Armenia LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
ST IDR B Affirmed B
LC LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
LC ST IDR B Affirmed B
Country Ceiling BB Affirmed BB
senior
unsecured LT BB- Affirmed BB-
Senior
Unsecured-Local
currency LT BB- Affirmed BB-
=============
E S T O N I A
=============
IUTE GROUP: Fitch Assigns 'B-' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Estonia-based Iute Group AS (Iute) a
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'B-'. The Outlook is
Stable. Fitch has also assigned the senior secured notes issued by
IuteCredit Finance S.à r.l., which is a fully owned subsidiary
acting as a financing intermediary for Iute Group, a rating of 'B-'
with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. The notes are unconditionally and
irrevocably guaranteed by Iute and its subsidiary IuteCredit
Albania SHA.
Key Rating Drivers
Small Franchise; Adequate Profitability: Iute's ratings are driven
by its standalone credit profile. They primarily reflect its small
franchise in unsecured micro lending to under-banked clients in
low-rated eastern and south-eastern European countries and adequate
profitability, but also its high leverage for its business scale
and profile.
Iute's ownership of Moldova-based Energbank contributes positively
to Iute's scale, asset quality and funding access. However,
fungibility of funding, liquidity and profitability between Iute
and Energbank are limited due to regulatory restrictions, which
limits the overall benefit for Iute's credit profile.
Exposed to Higher-Risk Markets: Iute is headquartered in Estonia
(A+/Stable), but its operations are concentrated in Moldova and
Albania, which made up 52% and 31% of total loans at end-2023,
respectively. Iute's other two key markets are North Macedonia
(13%, BB+/Stable) and Bulgaria (4%, BBB/Positive). Fitch considers
the operating environments in Iute's core markets to be volatile,
which is reflected in the sector risk operating environment
assessment of 'b'.
Digital Lending Underpins Business Model: Iute positions itself as
a fintech company, specialised in unsecured micro-finance and
payment services for under-banked customers. Its digital
capabilities are key to its competitive positioning in terms of
service quality, speed and overall risk management, which is the
main reason it focuses on less digitally developed markets. Fitch
believes that Iute's digital expertise is a key strength, but
regulations, especially on interest rate caps and rising
competition in local markets, constrain Iute's franchise.
Moderate Benefits from Bank Subsidiary: Iute acquired Energbank in
Moldova in 2022, which constituted around 27% of group consolidated
lending at end-2023. Energbank is a well-capitalised and very
liquid bank, and its loans are mostly secured, but profitability is
low. Iute is restructuring the bank to improve its efficiency.
Fitch also notes that bank resources (liquidity, deposits and
capital) are not fungible across the group, limiting the benefits
of Iute's ownership of Energbank for Iute's creditors.
FX-Induced Market Risk: Iute mainly funds itself from developed
markets in euros while its receivables are mostly in local
currencies, resulting in a considerable short position, leading to
material foreign exchange (FX) sensitivity. As of end-2023, the
company was EUR113 million short in euro, accounting for 1.8x
equity (end-2022: 2.4x equity), exposing it to potential losses in
case of a major devaluations of local market currencies.
High NPL Ratio: Fitch views Iute's risk controls, underwriting and
collection practices as adequate for its size and business model.
However, Iute's portfolio reflects the high-risk profile of
customers in higher-risk operating environments and its
non-performing loans (NPL) ratio at end-2023 was a high 11.9%
(14.6% excluding the bank).
Low Loan Loss Coverage: NPLs were 66% covered with provisions at
end-2023 (2022: 71%), which is low in Fitch's view, given Iute's
focus on unsecured lending. Unprovisioned NPLs equalled 20% of
tangible equity at end 2023. Iute's cost of risk (defined as
impairment charges/average gross loans) was 9.5% in 2023 (2022:
10.6%), which is high but in line with international peers
operating in higher-risk unsecured lending markets
Bank Subsidiary Drags on Profitability: Iute's profitability
reflects the high yields intrinsic in its business model as well as
improving diversification. Its wide net interest margin (NIM; 25%
in 2023, 29% in 2022) covers operating expenses and provisioning
costs. However, regulatory caps on lending rates, lower lending
rates at Energbank and rising competition are putting pressure on
Iute's NIM. Loan impairment charges consumed 73% of Iute's
pre-impairment operating profit in 2023 (2022: 81%), reflecting the
features of its business model.
Iute's pre-tax income/average assets ratio was 3.7% in 2023,
dragged down by high operational expenses and low profitability at
Energbank. Fitch expects successful execution of Energbank's
efficiency improvement plan to be a key medium-term driver of the
group's overall profitability.
Modest Core Capitalisation: Iute's gross debt/tangible equity ratio
was 5.5x on a consolidated basis and comfortably met Iute's debt
covenants in 2023. However, given that bank equity is not fungible,
Fitch considers that Iute's leverage ratio at the level of the
non-bank holding company should be stressed to reflect the risk for
unprovisioned NPLs, intangible assets and for the loss-absorbing
capacity of the investment in Energbank shares. Iute's ability to
quickly liquidate its investment in Energbank under a stress
scenario limits its immediate loss absorbing capacity (on a
standalone basis).
Increasing Funding Diversification; Mid-Term Maturities: Iute
Group's main funding resources were its Eurobond issuance (37% at
end-2023), customer deposits at Energbank (37%) and funding via the
Latvian Mintos Platform (15%). Energbank deposits contribute
positively to the group's consolidated funding structure but Fitch
notes that deposits are not fungible, limiting the benefits for the
overall group. Fitch views Iute's proven access to international
debt markets positively. However, Fitch also notes Iute's
considerable mid-term refinancing needs with a EUR110 million
Eurobond maturing in October 2026.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Deterioration of Iute's capitalisation, either through an
increase in consolidated leverage towards 10x or a material
weakening of Iute's standalone tangible capital position, for
instance due to increase in underprovisioned NPLs or lower loss
absorption potential of the investment in Energbank.
- Inability to refinance the outstanding 2026 eurobond well-ahead
of its maturity, due to market conditions or other external
factors, leading to a material increase in Iute's refinancing
risk.
- Materially weaker profitability, for instance due to a material
increase in credit losses, inability to transform Energbank leading
to high operational expenses or loss of franchise due to
competition.
- Significant regulatory changes undermining the viability of
Iute's business model in one or several of its core markets.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Material growth in franchise accompanied by a successful
transformation of Energbank, stronger capitalisation and a more
diversified funding maturity profile.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Recovery: Iute's senior secured debt rating of 'B-'
reflects the notes' only average recovery expectations based on
Fitch's stressed asset valuation, despite the notes' secured
nature. This is reflected in the 'RR4' Recovery Rating and the
equalisation of the debt rating with Iute's Long-Term IDR.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The senior secured debt rating is primarily sensitive to Iute's
Long-Term IDR
ADJUSTMENTS
The 'b-' asset quality score has been assigned above the 'ccc and
below' category implied score due to the following adjustment
reason: Historical and future metrics (positive).
ESG Considerations
Iute Group AS has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Exposure to
Social Impacts due to regulatory risks to the business model
development (including the potential tightening of lending rate
caps), which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is
relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Iute Group AS has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer
Welfare - Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to the risks
in the context of fair lending practices and pricing transparency,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Iute Group AS has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Group Structure
because the fungibility of capital is, in its view, restricted
between the regulated bank and the rest of the group, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Iute Group AS has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance
Structure due to the developing nature of its corporate governance
structure with limited independent oversight including the absence
of a supervisory board, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other
factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery
----------- ------ --------
IuteCredit Finance
S.a r.l.
senior secured LT B- New Rating RR4
Iute Group AS LT IDR B- New Rating
===========
F R A N C E
===========
ELO (AUCHAN HOLDING): S&P Downgrades ICR to 'BB', Outlook Negative
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered to 'BB' from 'BB+' its ratings on ELO,
owner of Auchan Retail and New Immo Holding (NIH), and the group's
senior unsecured notes, and it affirmed the short-term rating on
ELO at 'B'.
The negative outlook reflects that continuous weakening of retail
performance is resulting in a structural deterioration of the
group's creditworthiness, while increasing the execution risk of
the transformational plan and the downside risk to its forecasts.
S&P said, "We project underperformance of Auchan Retail will drive
ELO's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage (excluding Russia) above
4x in 2024-2025. In the first six months of 2024, ELO reported
sales of EUR15.7 billion, about 1.2% lower than 2023, or about the
same level at constant exchange rates. However, reported EBITDA
declined to EUR339 million, about 37% lower than in the first-half
of 2023, or about 50% lower than in 2022 and 2021, marking a
continued decline. The group's reported EBITDA margin was 2.1%,
compared with 3.5% in first-half 2023, 4.0% in 2022, and 4.7% in
2021. While in the first half of 2023 the decline in EBITDA was
concentrated in Russia and Ukraine, due to the war, and in France,
this year the group suffered in several geographies and businesses.
The EBITDA of Auchan Retail's French operations contracted by
EUR115 million, of which we understand that only a portion relates
to the integration of the Casino stores; Auchan Retail Russia and
Ukraine contracted by EUR31 million; Auchan retail other
geographies contracted by EUR50 million; and New Immo Holding (NIH)
contracted by EUR7 million. Even if the first semester normally
accounts for only 30%-40% of full year EBITDA, this performance is
significantly below our March 2024 expectations. We have thus
revised downward our base case, and we now expect ELO's adjusted
EBITDA will decline to about EUR1.2 billion for full-year 2024,
down from EUR1.45 billion in 2023 and EUR1.7 billion in 2022. This,
together with an increase in net debt, will bring S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted leverage--excluding Russia--to 4.6x in 2024 and
4.2x in 2025. Although we forecast leverage could decline below
4.0x by 2026, on the back of the transformation plan, we think the
plan's execution risks are elevated given the challenging
conditions for the market and ELO's history of deteriorating market
share and profitability, resulting in downside risk to our
forecasts."
Continued deterioration of the core French retail market poses
long-term challenges to the group's creditworthiness and increases
the execution risks of the transformation. Excluding Russia and
Ukraine, the main drag on ELO's profitability and cash generation
remains its core French retail operations. These activities
represent about half of the group's revenue and their EBITDA has
declined three years in a row. S&P said, "We estimate Auchan
Retail's reported EBITDA margin in France was about 1% in 2023, 2%
in 2022, and 3% in 2021. We expect it will drop to below 0.5% in
2024, given the performance in the first half and the impact of the
integration of the loss-making Casino stores and the relative
one-off costs. This level of profitability translates into
structurally negative free operating cash flow (FOCF), despite the
limited amount of financial debt displayed by retail operations.
Auchan Retail's French operations have also faced years of
progressive erosion of market share, which dropped to 8.5% as of
June 2024, from 10.5% in 2018, according to Kantar. We believe this
is due to the group's high dependance on large hypermarkets
(estimated at two-thirds of French sales), combined with its
relatively higher price point, which resulted in durable traffic
erosion. While, since 2022, the group has invested in prices to the
detriment of margins, traffic and volumes remain under pressure.
This is because discounters and independents, including
market-leader Leclerc, still have lower prices. At the same time,
fast-growing specialized players, such as Grand Frais in the fresh
food segment or Action in the non-food segment, have eroded
hypermarkets' traditional value proposition. ELO launched a
comprehensive transformation plan to improve the long-term
profitability and attractiveness of its French retail operations.
This includes leveraging on the new 10-year purchasing alliance
with Intermarché, investing in prices and in the attractiveness of
its hypermarkets by reducing surface area and reshaping the
offering. However, we believe the turnaround will be challenging,
gradual, and eventually require additional sizable one-off
investments, thus weighing materially on the group's profitability
and FOCF generation. Although ELO expects the new purchasing
alliance will provide tangible effects on the group's buying
conditions from 2025, the impact on profitability is untested in a
very competitive landscape where price competition often absorbs
potential profitability gains."
ELO's shareholder support and asset-rich balance sheet are
mitigating factors, but do not fully compensate for the operational
challenges. S&P said, "Given its strong asset base, including NIH's
EUR7.2 billion portfolio and Auchan Retail's ownership of a
considerable portion of its stores, we expect the group will
execute additional disposals to reduce financial debt and sustain
its liquidity, if needed. However, high interest rates and
challenged real estate valuations could complicate asset disposals
at fair value over the next 12-18 months. We also believe ELO's
shareholders could inject additional equity if needed, following
their contributions of EUR100 million in 2023 and another EUR300
million in the first half of 2024." Historically, shareholders
prioritized credit quality over dividends, and the group has a
track record of substantial deleveraging through disposals, such as
those made over 2018-2020. That said, shareholder support so far
did not fully cushion the significant deterioration of credit
metrics that occurred in 2022-2024, driven by the deterioration of
operating performance, as well as the effects of the strategic
acquisitions in France, Spain, and Portugal. Moreover, in the
longer term, the ability to maintain the current rating will depend
on ELO's capacity to restore a sound retail business and positive
FOCF--and not only from shareholders' support or asset disposals.
Asset sales often entail a reduction in EBITDA and business
diversification, or imply higher lease payments.
The group is advancing in the integration of the 98 Casino stores
it recently acquired. On July 1, 2024, ELO concluded the third and
last tranche of the acquisition of 98 Casino stores, including 70
supermarkets, 26 hypermarkets, and two drive-throughs. After the
acquisition of each tranche, the stores remained closed for two
weeks for the rebranding and reorganization and then reopened under
the Auchan banner. The group reported that, after reopening the
first stores, it cut prices by about 15%, which resulted in a 22%
rebound in volumes compared with last year, which is a positive
signal on the ability to progressively reattract traffic and turn
around the performance of these loss-making stores. The acquisition
should strengthen Auchan's market share in France to 10.0% from
8.5% currently, with a presence in complementary regions, such as
the south and Ile-de-France, and increase its exposure to the
supermarket format. S&P said, "In our base case, we assume ELO will
face a significant outflow in 2024 related to the Casino
acquisition, including the price and the investments needed to
transform and re-open the stores. In the first half of the year,
Auchan Retail already reported an investment outflow of about
EUR500 million, of which we estimate that at least EUR400 million
related to Casino, the rest referring to the Dia acquisition in
Portugal. The shareholders financed a portion of it through a
EUR300 million capital increase. We estimate the acquired stores
will also add a significant amount of lease debt, which increased
by about EUR350 million in the first half already, and additional
annual lease payments. We project their EBITDA contribution
(pre-leases) will be negative in 2024 and only moderately positive
in 2025-2026. Overall, we expect the transaction will increase S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted debt by EUR600 million-EUR700 million in
2024, despite shareholder support. Moreover, despite the good
trading signal, we still think the transaction entails significant
execution risks, because of the deteriorated performance of
Casino's supermarkets and hypermarkets in 2022-2023, and Auchan
Retail's poor track record in sustaining a good level of
profitability in its own network."
Net financial debt will continue to increase in 2024-2026, due to
subdued profitability, high investments, and increasing fixed
charges hampering financial flexibility. In the 12 months to June
30, 2024, ELO's reported net financial debt increased about EUR430
million, to EUR4.477 billion, despite EUR400 million of fresh
equity and EUR161 million reduction in inventory. The main drivers
of cash absorption were EUR1.121 billion of investments, including
the acquisition of Dia stores in Portugal and two of the three
tranches of Casino stores, about EUR300 million of cash interests,
and about EUR360 million lease payment. The increase in 2024
follows a EUR770 million increase in the 12 months to June 30,
2023, and another EUR200 million increase in the 12 months to June
30, 2022. S&P said, "Absent significant disposals or equity
injections, we expect net debt will continue increasing in
2024-2026, as the group integrates the loss-making Casino stores,
while keeping investments high to turn around its core French
operations. We note that net financial debt is always higher in
June than in December, given the seasonality of working capital. At
the same time, we expect ELO's fixed charges will increase markedly
in 2024, due to an estimated EUR80 million increase in lease
payments following the acquisition of the Casino stores and a EUR40
million increase in interest expense, given the higher adjusted
debt and higher interest rates. In this context, ELO will likely
need to reimburse or refinance about EUR850 million in 2025, and
about EUR1.25 billion in 2026 (including NIH's bond). Lower EBITDA
and higher fixed charges will translate into a deterioration of the
group's financial flexibility, as indicated by the EBITDAR coverage
ratio, which we estimate will fall to 1.8x-2.0x in 2024-2025, from
2.5x in 2023 and 3.5x in 2022, despite the group's ownership of a
sizable portion of its store footprint.
Real estate subsidiary NIH provides ELO with a stable EBITDA stream
and a rich balance-sheet. In the first half of 2024, NIH reported
broadly stable performance, with revenue reaching EUR323 million,
up 5.6% year on year, and EBITDA declining to EUR178 million, down
3.8% year on year. This comes after the strong growth over 2022 and
2023, as the company rebounded from COVID-19-related setbacks. We
forecast NIH's adjusted EBITDA will be EUR380 million-EUR400
million in 2024-2025, supporting ELO's performance and business
diversity. Despite the material rise in interest rates, NIH's
portfolio value resisted well, reporting a 0.2% like-for-like
improvement in the first half of 2024, after a moderate 1.5%
decline over full-year 2023. This was better than our expectation
and also better than ELO's main peers. This is because the rise in
yields was partly compensated by robust cash flow, and NIH's yields
are already slightly higher than those of some peers in the office
or residential sectors (7.82% discount rate in France, 9.01% in
Western Europe, and 11.79% in Eastern Europe). That said, higher
interest rates could still pose additional challenges over the next
12-24 months, including lowered debt-service coverage capacity and
complicating the execution of asset disposals. S&P said, "We expect
NIH will continue investing in its development pipeline, which will
be self-financed through its cash flow generation and asset
disposals. As such, we do not expect NIH's investment strategy to
drive any significant variation in ELO's net debt."
ELO's financial debt mostly benefits NIH, while Auchan Retail has
limited but growing financial debt and struggles to generate FOCF.
As of December 2023, NIH accounted for about 27% of ELO's
consolidated adjusted EBITDA, but for about 76% of its EUR4.6
billion adjusted debt. Consequently, NIH had an adjusted leverage
of 8.8x, while the holding company and Auchan Retail had a leverage
of 1.1x, mostly constituted of lease obligations and a net cash
position. S&P said, "In December 2024, we expect Auchan Retail's
leverage will increase significantly toward 2.7x, as EBITDA
declines and financial debt increases due to acquisitions, while
NIH's leverage will decline to 8.1x. From a financial standpoint,
and in line with our rating approach for real estate companies, NIH
can bear a much more leveraged capital structure relative to its
EBITDA than regular corporate entities. This high leverage is
offset by the large amount of real estate assets on the books and
the predictability of the related rental income, generated mostly
through fixed and indexed leases, a characteristic we reflect in
our methodology for real estate companies, which have less
stringent financial triggers than other corporates. Under our
financial matrix framework for real estate entities, NIH's
weighted-average credit metrics correspond to an intermediate
financial risk profile. Therefore, we believe that ELO's credit
quality is stronger than what its consolidated credit metrics
suggest under our corporate rating methodology, justifying a
one-notch uplift from the 'bb-' anchor. Considering its hybrid
nature, combining both retail and real estate businesses, we
monitor the consolidated group and the creditworthiness of each of
its two core businesses on a stand-alone basis." While Auchan
retail's stand-alone leverage remains contained below 3x in 2024,
its operational leverage and weak cash flow generation point to a
materially weaker credit standing than the group's current 'BB'
rating.
S&P said, "ELO's leverage excluding Russia better represents the
group's ability to repay its debt under the current circumstances.
Although the group continues operating in Russia, we consider ELO's
adjusted leverage excluding EBITDA from Russia as a metric that
better reflects the group's current creditworthiness. This is
because, given the sanctions and the geopolitical tensions, we
assume the group cannot rely on the cash flows generated in Russia
to service its debt. Without our estimate of Russian EBITDA and
Russian lease debt for 2023, our calculation of adjusted leverage
increases about 0.2x.
"The negative outlook reflects that continuous weakening of retail
performance is resulting in a structural deterioration of the
group's creditworthiness, while increasing the execution risk of
the transformational plan and the downside risk to our forecasts.
"We could lower the rating if, over the next 12 months, ELO
continues to underperform our base case, due to continued
deterioration of retail operations or higher-than-expected costs
from the transformation plan or from the integration of Casino's
stores." In particular, S&P could lower the rating if:
-- S&P sees no tangible sign of recovery in the performance of the
French retail operations, such that the French retail operations'
EBITDA does not recover from the 2024 level;
-- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage approaches 5.0x (excluding
Russia); or
-- Cash flow deteriorates further, causing material, unexpected
increases in net debt and hampering the liquidity profile.
S&P said, "We could revise the outlook to stable if there is a
tangible improvement in profitability and cash-flow generation of
Auchan Retail, such that S&P adjusted leverage (excluding Russia)
remains below 4.5x. We think this would be the case if the company
successfully turned around its retail operations over the medium
term, while shareholder support or disposals keep financing the
transformation and maintain a grip on net leverage."
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors have no
material influence on our credit rating analysis of ELO.
The group's exposure to environmental and social risk is similar to
that of the broader industry. For ELO, as a privately owned
company, governance factors are significant to the credit profile,
as the group is subject to less-stringent reporting and disclosure
requirements than publicly listed companies.
As part of its corporate strategy, Auchan Retail put a large focus
on improving its environmental impact, making it a key aspect of
the strengthening of its competitive position. The group's
environmental ambitions include reducing plastic packaging, food
waste, and its carbon footprint. With respect to the latter, ELO's
target is reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon dioxide emissions by
46% by 2030 (compared with 2019). Regarding Scope 3 emissions,
where most of the greenhouse gas emissions are generated for the
industry, the group's target is reducing them by 25% by 2030
(compared with 2020). As part of its efforts to differentiate its
product offering, ELO aims to rely more on local sourcing of
products and food traceability through, among other initiatives,
more partnerships with farmers.
In November 2021, Auchan signed its first sustainability-linked
loan, with terms conditional on achieving several climate change
and sustainable agricultural production targets, while in September
2023 it issued a EUR750 million sustainability-linked bond.
FORVIA: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'BB' LT ICR
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Forvia to negative from
stable and affirmed its 'BB' long-term issuer credit rating and
issue ratings on the company and its unsecured debt.
The negative outlook reflects the potential for a downgrade if
Forvia fails to restore FFO to debt above 15% in 2025 while
maintaining free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt above 5%.
Forvia's profitability setbacks are constraining its deleveraging
amid challenging market conditions. S&P said, "We anticipate the
group's adjusted EBITDA margin will decline to 7.6% in 2024 from
7.9% a year earlier, constrained by higher restructuring
costs--mainly linked to its EU-Forward plan--of EUR250
million-EUR300 million (EUR172 million last year) and EUR80
million-EUR90 million of extra costs in its U.S. interiors
business. We estimate this will constrain its FFO to debt at 12.9%
at year-end 2024, which we view as weak compared with our 15%
downside rating trigger and for three years after its Hella
acquisition. Although we anticipate a gradual recovery in
profitability next year, we believe that Forvia's margins and
credit metrics could remain exposed to unfavorable market
conditions, notably sluggish production volumes in Europe and the
volatility in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales. In addition, we
view cost overruns linked to production platforms ramp-ups or some
contracts as inherent risks to the industry, as reflected by the
sizable losses the company incurred in its Highland Park seating
facility over 2021-2022."
S&P said, "We anticipate Forvia's FOCF will remain sound, thanks to
lower capital expenditure (capex) intensity and working capital
efficiencies. We project annual FOCF of EUR450 million-EUR500
million in 2024-2025, supported by adjusted capex to sales
(excluding capitalized development costs) of about 3.6%, compared
with about 4.2% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2022 as the group continues to
reduce its investment intensity. In addition, we estimate that
working capital will continue to contribute positively to FOCF, but
to a lower extent than in previous years. We project working
capital inflows (net of factoring effects) of close to EUR300
million this year and EUR150 million next year, from about EUR750
million in 2023. We think this will allow the group to maintain
FOCF to debt just above the 5% level we view as commensurate with
the rating. However, still-elevated annual interest expense of
EUR500 million-EUR550 million and tax paid of EUR350 million-EUR400
million this year and EUR400 million-EUR450 million next year will
weigh on the group's cash conversion if market conditions further
deteriorate."
Forvia's financial policy continues to support the rating, although
it has not yet translated into meaningful deleveraging. The group
reaffirmed its target to reduce its reported net debt-to-EBITDA
ratio below 1.5x, from 2.0x as of June 30, 2024 (or about 4.6x in
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted terms) mainly through earnings growth
and about EUR750 million remaining under its second EUR1 billion
asset disposal program. S&P said, "Although our base-case scenario
only includes the EUR227 million already received from the
disposals of both BHTC and Hug Engineering in first-half 2024, we
view Forvia's deleveraging commitment as key to restoring the
group's FFO to debt above our 15% downside trigger. Still, we think
that leverage reduction would need to be driven by stronger EBITDA
growth. To illustrate this, the impact from asset disposals so far
(about EUR1.2 billion from various divestments since 2022 to date)
was relatively muted on adjusted FFO to debt, which only modestly
improved to 11.4% at June 30, 2024 (on a rolling 12-month basis)
from 10.5% at Dec. 31, 2022. We primarily attribute this to a
higher interest charge and slower-than-expected earnings growth,
with Forvia's EUR2.0 billion rolling 12-month adjusted EBITDA at
June 30, 2024, only moderately increasing from the EUR1.8 billion
recorded in full-year 2022, when the group acquired Hella."
S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our expectation that
Forvia's deleveraging trajectory could be jeopardized by lower
global auto production and slower-than-expected profitability
improvements in the next 12 months such that it might not restore
FFO to debt above 15% and maintain FOCF to debt above 5% by
year-end 2025.
"We could lower our rating on Forvia if we anticipate FFO to debt
will not improve above 15% in 2025 and FOCF to debt will drop
sustainably below 5%. This could stem from further contraction in
global auto production or setbacks with cost-savings initiatives,
resulting in S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins staying
below 8% and weaker-than-expected cash generation.
"We could revise our outlook on Forvia to stable raise if we expect
it will restore FFO to debt sustainably above 15% while maintaining
FOCF to debt sustainably above 5%. This could stem from operating
margins improving faster than in our base-case scenario due to
stronger outperformance over auto production growth, increasing
savings from restructuring initiatives and Hella-related synergies
or the group completing its asset disposal program faster than
expected.
"Environmental, social and governance factors have an overall
neutral influence on our credit rating analysis for Forvia. The
company has relatively limited exposure to the energy transition
risks of the auto sector through its clean mobility division, which
accounted for about 18% of sales in 2023. The clean mobility
division bears displacement risks because its antipollutant systems
are not necessary in fully electric cars, but we believe the
company has the financial flexibility to gradually diversify away
from internal combustion engine-related products through
investments (in hydrogen notably) and its other business not
affected by the powertrain transition. In our base-case scenario,
we include yearly spending of EUR75 million-EUR150 million for
bolt-on acquisitions and investments in joint ventures that should
help replace lost sales. By 2030, the group is committed to full
carbon neutrality for its own emissions and those of its supply
chain (excluding use of sold products), in line with most global
peers."
=============
G E R M A N Y
=============
D.V.I. DEUTSCHE: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit ratings on
Germany-based real estate company D.V.I. Deutsche Vermogens- und
Immobilienverwaltungs GmbH (DVI) by one notch to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'
and affirmed its 'BBB-' issue ratings on the company's senior
unsecured bond. S&P assigned a recovery rating of '2' to the senior
unsecured bond, indicating its expectation of about 85% recovery
(rounded estimate) in the event of default.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that DVI will generate
stable and predictable cash flows, which should result in an
interest coverage ratio of about 1.7x and debt-to-debt plus equity
of approximately 48% to 50% over the next 12 months.
S&P said, "The downgrade follows our updated base-case assumptions,
with S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA interest coverage of below
2.0x during the next 12 months amid a lower-than-previously
anticipated EBITDA margin and higher funding costs. Following DVI's
release of fiscal year 2023 results (ending Dec. 31), S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA interest coverage fell to 1.6x compared
with our expectations of about 2.0x for the same period, reaching
our downside threshold of 2.0x for the 'BBB-' rating. In addition,
the ratio of debt to EBITDA stood at 18.3x as of end-2023,
deviating strongly from our expectations of about 13.0x.
Higher-than-expected operating costs, mostly related to ancillary
and personnel costs mostly drove the unexpected deterioration of
its credit metrics. This led to a decline in EBITDA margin by about
15.0% to 67.4% from 81.1% in 2022. The company's adjusted interest
expense (including the present value increase of the subsidized
investment loans) increased close to EUR50 million compared with
our anticipated about EUR46 million due to higher gross debt. As a
result, we have updated our base case and forecast that the
company's EBITDA interest coverage will remain low at about
1.7x-1.8x over the next 12 months, and debt to EBITDA will remain
high but gradually improve toward 15.0x. The downgrade follows our
removal of the previously assessed positive comparable rating
analysis modifier.
"We maintain DVI's liquidity position at adequate, but refinancing
needs remain high over the next 12-24 months, which could harm its
liquidity profile if not addressed in a timely manner.As of June
30, 2024, short-term debt maturities for the next 12 months
amounted to about EUR148 million, accounting for about 10% of total
outstanding interest-bearing debt. The company's unrestricted cash
position was about EUR93 million, and we assume that DVI will
generate funds from operations of close to EUR40 million for the
next 12 months. In the absence of committed long-term credit lines
and including about EUR11 million commitment on transaction with
minorities, we estimate that the company's liquidity headroom is
currently tight. We understand that DVI has signed approximately
EUR43 million of committed bank loans after the second quarter of
2024 and is in the advanced stage of extending loans in the amount
of EUR21 million. We closely monitor DVI's liquidity position and
will update our analysis if the company is not successful in
extending or prolonging upcoming bank debt maturities over the next
few months. We view the company's commitment to continue its
dividend holiday payments and its overall long-term average debt
maturity profile of 6.4 years as positive. DVI benefits from a high
fixation of interest costs of 96% of total outstanding debt,
limiting a full immediate effect of rising interest rates at its
capital structure.
"We view DVI's leverage as moderate with a debt-to-debt plus equity
ratio at 48%-50%.In fiscal year 2023, DVI's reported loan-to-value
(LTV) ratio increased to 41% compared with 37% in 2022, slightly
exceeding its own stated financial policy of a target LTV ratio of
35% to 40%. The increase followed a property devaluation of 7.7%,
mainly driven by an increasing interest rate environment and
expanding rental yields. This translated into a S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt-to-debt plus equity ratio of 49.5% in 2023.
We view its leverage ratio to be moderate compared to other rated
real estate companies at a similar rating level, such as Sato Oyj
(Stand-alone credit profile 'bb+', 47.6%) or CPI Property Group
('BB+/Negative', 59.8%). We expect DVI to take sufficient steps
over the next 12-18 months to return to its own stated financial
policy. Although we assume further property devaluations of 4% to
5% in 2024, we expect the S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt-to-debt
plus equity ratio to gradually decrease to 48% by end-2025. We
understand the company plans to improve leverage through asset
sales. Our revised forecast assumes net asset rotation of about
EUR15 million-EUR20 million in 2024 and about EUR50 million-EUR70
million in 2025.
"We expect DVI's portfolio will benefit from stable and predictable
rental growth, strengthened by the strong demand for residential
properties in the City of Berlin, and the slight improvement in
occupancy levels for its commercial portfolio. During fiscal year
2023, the company reported a high like-for-like rental growth of
about 5.9% for the whole portfolio, with about 3.7% in the
residential segment and more than 10% in the commercial segment.
The occupancy remained high at almost 99% in the residential
segment, but dropping to 87% in the commercial segment, due to
nonreplacement of leaving tenants. We think that DVI will continue
to benefit from strong demand for affordable residential assets in
the City of Berlin while new supply remains limited. More than 90%
of its residential portfolio is located in A-cities and more than
90% of its portfolio carries energy efficiency certifications of C
or better, which should support demand for its assets and manage
future capital expenditure spending. Although we remain cautious on
the performance of its commercial properties, especially those
located in secondary locations in Germany, where challenging market
conditions and falling tenant demand may affect occupancy levels
further. We forecast a slight improvement of commercial occupancy
levels in its office segment close to 90% from 87%, as we
understand that the company has signed some rental contracts
already during the first half of 2024.
"The stable outlook reflects our view that DVI will generate stable
and predictable cash flows which should result in an interest
coverage ratio of about 1.7x and debt-to-debt plus equity of about
48%-50% over the next 12 months."
S&P would lower the rating if:
-- DVI's adjusted debt-to-debt plus equity increases toward 60% or
above;
-- The EBITDA interest coverage ratio fails to recover toward
1.8x, including the annual increase in present value of its
subsidized investment loans, or if does not remain above 2.0x
excluding the annual increase in present value of its subsidized
investments loans;
-- Debt to EBITDA deviates from S&P's base case; or
-- The company is unable to address well in advance its
refinancing needs for the next 12-24 months, causing a liquidity
deterioration.
A negative rating action could also stem from DVI's operational
performance deteriorating, including a drop in commercial vacancy
rates, failure of a recovery of its EBITDA margins, or a reduction
in portfolio size. A prolonged breach of DVI's own stated financial
policy of maintaining an LTV ratio of 35%-40% could also be
negative for our rating assessment.
S&P could raise its rating if DVI's:
-- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted ratio of debt-to-debt plus equity
remains well below 50% on a sustainable basis;
-- EBITDA interest coverage improves sustainably above 2.0x
including the annual increase in present value of its subsidized
investments loans (or toward 2.4x excluding the annual increase in
present value of its subsidized investments loans);
-- Debt-to-EBITDA ratio does not deviate from our base case of
about 15.0x; and
-- Liquidity headroom remains sufficient to address upcoming debt
maturities.
A positive rating action could also involve a stronger cash flow
generation, including an increase in occupancy rates on the
commercial segment and optimizing its operational cost base.
NORIA DE 2024: Moody's Assigns B2 Rating to EUR22MM Class F Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned the following definitive ratings to
Notes issued by Noria DE 2024 (the "Issuer"):
EUR532M Class A Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR82M Class B Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned Aa1 (sf)
EUR58M Class C Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR38M Class D Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR40M Class E Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
EUR22M Class F Asset Backed Notes due February 2043, Definitive
Rating Assigned B2 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned a rating to the Class G Asset Backed
Notes due February 2043 amounting to EUR28M.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The transaction is a 11-month revolving cash securitisation of
consumer loan receivables extended by BNP Paribas S.A. German
branch, owned by BNP Paribas (Aa3/P-1; Aa3(cr)/P-1(cr)), to
obligors located in Germany. The borrowers use the loans for
several purposes, such as home improvements, purchasing of goods
and other general purposes. The servicer is also BNP Paribas S.A.
German branch.
The initial portfolio consists of personal loans originated by BNP
Paribas S.A. German branch through its branches with direct
marketing activities, through point of sale loans offered by
business partners as well as through price comparison platforms.
The balance of the portfolio, as of July 17, 2024, corresponds to
approximately EUR800 million, for a total number of 71,859 loans.
The tenor of the loans varies from less than 1 year up to 10 years.
The weighted-average seasoning is 19.3 months. All loans are
standard German amortising loans with equal, fixed instalments.
The transaction benefits from credit strengths, such as (i) the
granularity of the portfolio, (ii) the financial strength of the
originator, and (iii) the fact that all loans are fully amortising
without any balloon payments.
In addition, the transaction contains structural features, such as:
(i) an amortising liquidity reserve support sized at 1.5% of the
aggregate amount outstanding of the Classes A to F Notes,
amortising down to a floor of 0.5% of the initial balance of
Classes A to F Notes, (ii) principal to pay interest mechanism for
the Notes, (iii) a daily sweep of collections to the Issuer account
that partially mitigates the risk of commingling, and (iv)
significant excess spread at closing. In addition to the amortising
liquidity reserve, there is also a non-amortising Swap Reserve
Account equal to 2.76% of the aggregate amount outstanding of the
Class A to G Notes at closing, which will be used by the Issuer to
pay any upfront fees due and payable to the Swap Counterparty under
each Swap Agreement on the closing date.
Moody's note that the transaction features some credit weaknesses,
such as: (i) the fact that the pool is revolving for 11 months,
which could lead to an asset quality drift, although this is
mitigated to some extent by the portfolio concentration limits,
(ii) pro-rata payments on Classes A to G Notes from the first
payment date, and (iii) an interest rate mismatch as all the loans
are fixed-rate whereas the Notes are floating-rate. The interest
rate mismatch is mitigated by a fixed-to-floating balance
guaranteed interest rate swap hedging coupon payments for Classes A
to G Notes. Pro-rata payment scheme will cease after one of the
sequential redemption events is triggered.
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected defaults of
9.0%, expected recoveries of 20% and portfolio credit enhancement
("PCE") of 21% related to borrower receivables. The expected
defaults and recoveries capture Moody's expectations of performance
considering the current economic outlook, while the PCE captures
the loss Moody's expect the portfolio to suffer in the event of a
severe recession scenario. Expected defaults and PCE are parameters
used by us to calibrate Moody's lognormal portfolio loss
distribution curve and to associate a probability with each
potential future loss scenario in the ABSROM cash flow model to
rate Consumer ABS.
Portfolio expected defaults of 9.0% are higher than the EMEA
Consumer Loan ABS average and are based on Moody's assessment of
the lifetime expectation for the pool taking into account: (i)
historical performance of the loan book of the originator, split by
new and used vehicles, personal loans and other special purpose
loans; (ii) benchmarking with other similar transactions; and (iii)
other qualitative considerations, such as the 11-month revolving
period and the related portfolio concentration limits.
Portfolio expected recoveries of 20% are in line with the EMEA
Consumer Loan ABS average and are based on Moody's assessment of
the lifetime expectation for the pool taking into account: (i)
historical performance of the loan book of the originator, split by
new and used vehicles, personal loans and other special purpose
loans; (ii) the unsecured nature of the consumer loans in Germany;
and (iii) benchmarking with other similar transactions.
PCE of 21% is higher than the EMEA Consumer Loan ABS average and is
based on Moody's assessment of the pool which is mainly driven by:
(i) evaluation of the underlying portfolio, complemented by the
historical performance information as provided by the originator;
and (ii) the relative ranking to originator peers in the EMEA
Consumer loan market. The PCE level of 21% results in an implied
coefficient of variation ("CoV") of 28.2%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was " Moody's
Approach to Rating Consumer Loan-Backed ABS" published in July
2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings of the Class B to
F Notes include a better than expected performance of the pool
together with an increase in credit enhancement of the Notes.
Factors that would lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (i)
increased counterparty risk leading to potential operational risk
of (a) servicing or cash management interruptions or (b) the risk
of increased swap linkage due to a downgrade of the swap
counterparty ratings; and (ii) economic conditions being worse than
forecast resulting in higher portfolio arrears and losses.
=============
I R E L A N D
=============
ALBACORE EURO IV: Moody's Gives Ba2 Rating to EUR21.7MM E-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings announced that it has assigned the following
ratings to refinancing debt issued by AlbaCore Euro CLO IV
Designated Activity Company (the "Issuer"):
EUR206,600,000 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR60,000,000 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Loan due
2035, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR54,000,000 Class B-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Definitive Rating Assigned Aa1 (sf)
EUR30,400,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR30,500,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR21,700,000 Class E-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
At the same time, Moody's affirmed the outstanding Class F Senior
Secured Floating Rate Notes which have not been refinanced:
EUR14,600,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes
due 2035, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on May 10, 2022 Definitive
Rating Assigned B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rationale for the ratings is based on a consideration of the
risks associated with the CLO's portfolio and structure as
described in Moody's methodology.
The rating affirmation of the Class F Notes is a result of the
refinancing, which has no impact on the rating of the notes.
As part of this refinancing, the Issuer has extended the weighted
average life covenant by 6 months to 6 years. Also currently the
Class B Notes consist of a floating rate tranche and a fixed rate
tranche. As part of the refinancing, The Class B Notes have been
consolidated into a single floating rate tranche.
The Issuer is a managed cash flow CLO. At least 90% of the
portfolio must consist of secured senior loans or senior secured
bonds and up to 10% of the portfolio may consist of unsecured
senior loans, second-lien loans, high yield bonds and mezzanine
loans. The underlying portfolio is fully ramped as of the closing
date and comprises predominantly corporate loans to obligors
domiciled in Western Europe.
AlbaCore Capital LLP ("AlbaCore") will continue to manage the CLO.
It will direct the selection, acquisition and disposition of
collateral on behalf of the Issuer and may engage in trading
activity, including discretionary trading, during the transaction's
remaining reinvestment period. Thereafter, subject to certain
restrictions, purchases are permitted using principal proceeds from
unscheduled principal payments and proceeds from sales of credit
risk obligations and credit improved obligations.
The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests which,
if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to pay down
the debt in order of seniority.
Methodology underlying the rating action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
May 2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated debt's performance is subject to uncertainty. The debt's
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the debt's
performance.
Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on
the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Section 2.3 of
the "Moody's Global Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan
Obligations" rating methodology published in May 2024.
Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR447.3m
Defaulted Par: EUR2.7m as of June 17, 2024
Diversity Score: 61
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3095
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.97%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.75%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.5%
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 5.25 years
As per the portfolio constraints and eligibility criteria,
exposures to countries with LCC below A1 cannot exceed 10% and
obligors cannot be domiciled in countries with LCC below A3.
AVOCA CLO XVIII: Moody's Raises Rating on EUR14.5MM F Notes to Ba3
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Avoca CLO XVIII Designated Activity Company:
EUR31,000,000 Class C Deferrable Mezzanine Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Upgraded to
Aa1 (sf)
EUR25,000,000 Class D Deferrable Mezzanine Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Upgraded to
A2 (sf)
EUR28,000,000 Class E Deferrable Junior Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Upgraded to
Ba1 (sf)
EUR14,500,000 Class F Deferrable Junior Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Affirmed B1
(sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR295,000,000 (current outstanding amount EUR95,143,420.34) Class
A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2031, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Jan 29, 2024 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR45,000,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR25,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2031,
Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jan 29, 2024 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Avoca CLO XVIII Designated Activity Company, issued in May 2018, is
a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European and US loans. The
portfolio is managed by KKR Credit Advisors (Ireland) Unlimited
Company. The transaction's reinvestment period ended at the end of
the due period in September 2022.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class C, D, E and F notes are primarily
a result of the significant deleveraging of the Class A notes
following amortisation of the underlying portfolio since the last
rating action in January 2024.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A, B-1 and B-2 notes
are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A notes have paid down by approximately EUR93.2m (or
49.5%) since last rating action in January 2024. As a result of the
deleveraging, over-collateralisation (OC) has increased across the
capital structure. According to the trustee report dated June
2024[1] the Class A/B, Class C, Class D, Class E and Class F OC
ratios are reported at 163.60%, 142.60%, 129.20%, 116.90% and
111.40% compared to December 2023 [2] levels of 145.70%, 131.90%,
122.60%, 113.60% and 109.40%, respectively. Moody's notes that the
July 2024 principal payments are not reflected in the reported OC
ratios.
The key model inputs Moody's use in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR289,164,357
Defaulted Securities: EUR621,670
Diversity Score: 51
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3018
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.24 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.55%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.83%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 44.34%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0.5%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectation of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporate these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
May 2024.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Moody's Approach to Assessing Counterparty Risks in
Structured Finance methodology" published in October 2023. Moody's
concluded the ratings of the notes are not constrained by these
risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assume have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
CABINTEELY PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Cabinteely Park CLO DAC's notes.
This rating review was prompted by the discovery of the
participation in the last rating committee that reviewed this
rating by a rating committee member, who should not have been
taking part in that rating committee because they were in their
"cooling off" period with respect to the relevant party around
which that analyst must rotate. Fitch reconvened a rating committee
as soon as the analysis could be updated following this discovery,
to determine if the date of the original committee or the rating
action could have been influenced by a conflict of interest. The
new rating committee did not identify any such conflict.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Cabinteely Park CLO DAC
A XS2417672487 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1 XS2417672644 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
B-2 XS2417672560 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
C XS2417672727 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
D XS2417673022 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
E XS2417672990 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
F XS2417673295 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Cabinteely Park CLO DAC is a cash flow collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) actively managed by Blackstone Ireland Limited. It
closed on 23 December 2021 and has a 4.6-year reinvestment period,
ending 15 August 2026.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Performance, Low Refinancing Risk: The transaction's
performance has been stable and refinancing risk is low. As per the
latest trustee report, the transaction is failing the Moodys' Caa
test and exceeding its fixed-rate limit. According to the latest
trustee report, the transaction has 6.6% of assets with a
Fitch-derived rating of 'CCC+' and below, which is below the limit
of 7.5%. The transaction is above target par and defaults comprise
0.2% of the portfolio, with 9.2% of the portfolio maturing before
end-2026.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor of the current portfolio is 26.0 as calculated by Fitch.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
97.3% of the portfolio as calculated by the trustee. Fitch views
the recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated
weighted average recovery rate of the current portfolio as reported
by the trustee is 60.9%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration is 13.4%, and no obligor represents more than 1.7% of
the portfolio balance, as reported trustee.
Transaction Still in Reinvestment Period: The transaction will exit
its reinvestment period in August 2026. Given the manager's ability
to continue to reinvest, Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed
portfolio and tested the notes' achievable ratings across the Fitch
matrix, since the portfolio can still migrate to different
collateral quality tests.
Cash Flow Analysis: Fitch used a customised proprietary cash flow
model to replicate the principal and interest waterfalls and the
various structural features of the transaction, and to assess their
effectiveness, including the structural protection provided by
excess spread diverted through the par-value and interest-coverage
tests.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Based on the current portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Cabinteely Park CLO
DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key rating drivers
any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the rating on an
individual basis.
CLONMORE PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Clonmore Park CLO DAC's notes.
This rating review was prompted by the discovery of the
participation in the last rating committee that reviewed this
rating by a rating committee member, who should not have been
taking part in that rating committee because they were in their
"cooling off" period with respect to the relevant party around
which that analyst must rotate. Fitch reconvened a rating committee
as soon as the analysis could be updated following this discovery,
to determine if the date of the original committee or the rating
action could have been influenced by a conflict of interest. The
new rating committee did not identify any such conflict
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Clonmore Park CLO DAC
Class A-R Loan LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A-R Notes XS2766727114 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B-1-R XS2766727387 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class B-2-R XS2766727460 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class C-R XS2766727890 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
Class D-R XS2766728278 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
Class E-R XS2766728781 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
Class F-R XS2766728864 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Clonmore Park CLO DAC is a cash flow CLO comprising mostly senior
secured obligations. The portfolio is actively managed by
Blackstone Ireland Limited and exits its reinvestment period in
February 2027.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Performance: The transaction is passing all of its tests,
and is above target par. As per the last trustee report dated 12
June 2024, exposure to assets with a Fitch-derived rating of 'CCC+'
and below is 5.7%, versus a limit of 7.5%. There are approximately
EUR430,000 of defaulted assets in the portfolio. The Stable
Outlooks on the notes reflect a strong default rate cushion against
credit quality deterioration in view of the moderate risk in the
near and medium term, with approximately 0.3% of the portfolio
maturing by 2025, and 8.8% in 2026.
Sufficient Cushion for Senior Notes: The senior classes have
retained a sufficient buffer to support their current ratings and
should be capable of withstanding further defaults in the
portfolio. This supports the Stable Outlooks on all of the notes.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted average
rating factor of the current portfolio is 26.6.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
96.1% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 60.5%.
Diversified Portfolio: The top 10 obligor concentration as
calculated by the trustee is 13.7%, which is below the limit of
25%, and the largest issuer represents 1.7% of the portfolio
balance.
Cash Flow Modelling: The weighted average life (WAL) used for the
transaction's Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less
than the WAL covenant at the issue date (subject to a floor of six
years), to account for the strict reinvestment conditions envisaged
by the transaction after its reinvestment period. These include,
among others, passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket
limitation test post reinvestment, as well as a WAL covenant that
progressively steps down over time, both before and after the end
of the reinvestment period. Fitch believes these conditions would
reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during the
stress period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades may occur if the build-up of the notes' credit
enhancement following amortisation does not compensate for a larger
loss expectation than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly high
levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may occur if the portfolio quality remains stable and the
notes start amortising, leading to higher credit enhancement across
the structure.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Clonmore Park CLO DAC
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Clonmore Park CLO
DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key rating drivers
any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the rating on an
individual basis.
CUMULUS STATIC 2023-1: Fitch Affirms 'BB-sf' Rating on Cl. E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings on Cumulus Static CLO 2023-1
DAC notes.
This rating review was prompted by the discovery of the
participation in the last rating committee that reviewed this
rating by a rating committee member, who should not have been
taking part in that rating committee because they were in their
"cooling off" period with respect to the relevant party around
which that analyst must rotate. Fitch reconvened a rating committee
as soon as the analysis could be updated following this discovery,
to determine if the date of the original committee or the rating
action could have been influenced by a conflict of interest. The
new rating committee did not identify any such conflict.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Cumulus Static
CLO 2023-1 DAC
Class A XS2716094938 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B XS2716095158 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class C XS2716095315 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
Class D XS2716095588 LT BBBsf Affirmed BBBsf
Class E XS2716095745 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
Transaction Summary
Cumulus Static CLO 2023-1 DAC is a static cash flow CLO comprising
mostly senior secured obligations, serviced by Blackstone Ireland
Limited.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
B/B- Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of the
underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the current portfolio is 23.7. The
Fitch-calculated WARF for the portfolio whereby Fitch has
downgraded assets with Negative Outlook by one notch is 24.8.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
98.7% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate (WARR) of the current portfolio is 63.4%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 11.1%, and no obligor
represents more than 1.3% of the portfolio balance. The exposure to
the three-largest Fitch-defined industries is 25.1% as calculated
by the trustee. Fixed-rate assets reported by the trustee are at
10% of the portfolio balance.
Deviation from Model-implied Ratings: The class B to D notes'
ratings and the class E notes' ratings are one and two notches
below their model-implied ratings (MIR), respectively. The
deviation reflects limited cushion in the Fitch-stressed portfolio
at their MIRs.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades may occur if the build-up of the notes' credit
enhancement following amortisation does not compensate for a larger
loss expectation than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly high
levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may occur if the portfolio quality remains stable and the
notes start amortising, leading to higher credit enhancement across
the structure.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Cumulus Static CLO
2023-1 DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance
scores in connection with the credit rating of a transaction,
programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key
rating drivers any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the
rating on an individual basis.
EDMONDSTOWN PARK: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Edmondstown Park CLO DAC notes. The
Outlooks are Stable.
This rating review was prompted by the discovery of the
participation in the last rating committee that reviewed this
rating by a rating committee member, who should not have been
taking part in that rating committee because they were in their
"cooling off" period with respect to the relevant party around
which that analyst must rotate. Fitch reconvened a rating committee
as soon as the analysis could be updated following this discovery,
to determine if the date of the original committee or the rating
action could have been influenced by a conflict of interest. The
new rating committee did not identify any such conflict.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Edmondstown Park CLO DAC
A Loan LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A Notes XS2558574369 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B XS2558574526 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
C XS2558574955 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
D XS2558575093 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
E XS2558575176 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
F XS2558575689 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Edmondstown Park CLO DAC is a cash flow CLO comprising mostly
senior secured obligations. The transaction is actively managed by
Blackstone Ireland Limited and will exit its reinvestment period in
July 2027.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Performance; Low Refinancing Risk: Since Fitch's last rating
action in November 2023, the portfolio's performance has been
stable. As per the last trustee report dated 12 June 2024, the
transaction was passing all of its collateral-quality and
portfolio-profile tests. The transaction is above par by 0.3% as
calculated by Fitch, and has reported defaults of EUR2.0 million.
In addition, the notes have limited near- and medium-term
refinancing risk, with 0.5% of the assets in the portfolio maturing
before 2025, and 8.1% in 2026, as calculated by Fitch.
Cushion for All Notes: All notes have substantial default-rate
buffers to support their ratings and should be capable of absorbing
further defaults in the portfolio. This also reflects its
expectation that the notes have sufficient credit protection to
withstand deterioration in the credit quality of the portfolio at
current ratings.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the current portfolio is 25.7 as
reported by the trustee based on the latest criteria.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
96.9% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate (WARR) of the current portfolio is 61.1%.
Diversified Portfolio: The top 10 obligor concentration as
calculated Fitch is 13.2%, and no obligor represents more than 1.5%
of the portfolio balance. Exposure to the three largest
Fitch-defined industries is 29.9% as calculated by the trustee.
Reinvestment Allowed: The transaction is in its reinvestment period
until July 2027 and the manager can reinvest, subject to compliance
with the reinvestment criteria. Given the manager's ability to
reinvest, Fitch's analysis is based on stressing the portfolio to
the covenanted limits utilising the transaction matrix currently
used by the manager, which looks at the Fitch-calculated WARF,
Fitch-calculated WARR, weighted average spread and fixed-rate asset
share.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Based on the current portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Edmondstown Park
CLO DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores
in connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key rating drivers
any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the rating on an
individual basis.
GRIFFITH PARK: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class E Notes to 'B+sf'
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Griffith Park CLO DAC's class D and
class E notes.
This rating review was prompted by the discovery of the
participation in the last rating committee that reviewed this
rating by a rating committee member, who should not have been
taking part in that rating committee because they were in their
"cooling off" period with respect to the relevant party around
which that analyst must rotate. Fitch reconvened a rating committee
as soon as the analysis could be updated following this discovery,
to determine if the date of the original committee or the rating
action could have been influenced by a conflict of interest. The
new rating committee did not identify any such conflict.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Griffith Park CLO DAC
Class A-1A-R XS2309452410 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A-1B-R XS2309453061 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A-2A-R XS2309453731 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class A-2B-R XS2309454200 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class B-R XS2309455199 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class C-R XS2309455603 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
Class D XS1903440532 LT BB+sf Upgrade BBsf
Class E XS1903440458 LT B+sf Upgrade Bsf
Transaction Summary
Griffith Park CLO DAC is a cash flow collateralised loan obligation
CLO actively managed by Blackstone Ireland Limited. On March 2021
the class A1 to C notes were refinanced, and the reinvestment
period ended in May 2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Deleveraging Transaction: The transaction is out of the
reinvestment period and has not met the criteria to reinvest since
April 2024, therefore principal proceeds have been used to pay down
the class A-1A-R notes. As of the latest trustee report, the deal
had EUR22.1 million in cash in its principal account. The class
A-1A-R notes have been paid down by around EUR21.6 million since
the last review in November 2023, leading to an increase in credit
enhancement (CE) across the structure. This has resulted in the
upgrade and affirmations. The ample break-even default-rate cushion
displayed for each notes' rating supports the Stable Outlooks.
Stable Performance; Low Refinancing Risk: The transaction's
performance has been stable and refinancing risk is low. As per the
latest trustee report, the transaction failed its weighted average
life (WAL) test and two other collateral quality tests of another
rating agency. According to the latest trustee report, the
transaction has 6.2% of assets with a Fitch-derived rating of
'CCC+' and below, which is below the limit of 7.5%. The transaction
is above par and defaults comprise 0.7% of the portfolio, with 5.7%
of the portfolio maturing before end-June 2026.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor (WARF) of the current portfolio is 25.3 as calculated by
Fitch.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
97.3% of the portfolio as calculated by the trustee. Fitch views
the recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate (WARR) of the current portfolio as reported
by the trustee is 61.5%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration is 15.7%, and no obligor represents more than 2.0% of
the portfolio balance, as reported by the trustee.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: The transaction is failing
its WAL test, which needs to be satisfied for any reinvestment. The
manager could bring the WAL test back into compliance by selling
assets and Fitch therefore also performed a stressed-case portfolio
analysis, which supported the upgrade.
Deviation from Model Implied Rating (MIR): The class A-2A-R and
A-2B-R notes are one notch below their model-implied ratings (MIR),
reflecting a limited break-even default-rate cushion at their MIRs.
This takes into consideration Fitch's expectation of deterioration
in asset performance, which unlike reinvesting CLOs, would
immediately affect the ratings of a static CLO.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Based on the current portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Griffith Park CLO
DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key rating drivers
any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the rating on an
individual basis.
TRINITAS EURO II: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating to Cl. F-RR Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Trinitas Euro CLO II DAC reset notes
expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Trinitas Euro
CLO II DAC
A-RR LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B-RR LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C-RR LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D-RR LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E-RR LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F-RR LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
X-RR LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Trinitas Euro CLO II DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured loans and secured senior bonds (at least 90%) with a
component of senior unsecured, mezzanine and second-lien loans.
Note proceeds will be used to redeem the existing notes (except the
subordinated notes) and to fund its existing portfolio with a
target par of EUR400 million. The portfolio is actively managed by
Trinitas Capital Management, LLC. The CLO has an approximately
5.2-year reinvestment period and 9.2-year weighted average life
test (WAL).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors in the 'B' category. The Fitch
weighted average rating factor of the identified portfolio is
23.5.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio will comprise senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 63.2%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction will have a
maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined industries in
the portfolio at 40%, among others. These covenants ensure the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction will have a
reinvestment period of about 5.2-years and include reinvestment
criteria similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's
analysis is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim of
testing the robustness of the transaction structure against its
covenants and portfolio guidelines. For the expected rating
analysis, the fitch-stressed portfolio is modelled with a top 10
obligor limit of 20%, a fixed-rate asset limit at 12.5% and a WAL
of 8.2 years (12 months shorter than the WAL covenant at closing).
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL
covenant. This is to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment period, which
include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket
limitation test after reinvestment as well as a WAL covenant that
gradually steps down, before and after the end of the reinvestment
period. Fitch believes these conditions would reduce the effective
risk horizon of the portfolio during the stress period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the identified portfolio would have no impact on the ratings of the
notes.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class B-RR and D-RR notes have a
two-notch rating cushion, the class C-RR and E-RR notes have three
notches and the class F-RR notes has five notches. The class X-RR
and A-RR notes have no rating cushion as they are rated at
'AAA(EXP)sf'.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
across all ratings and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings
of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to
four notches for the notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
increase in the RRR across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed
portfolio would lead to upgrades of up to five notches, except for
the 'AAAsf' rated notes.
During the reinvestment period, based on the Fitch-stressed
portfolio, upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio
credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing the notes
to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the transaction's
remaining life. After the end of the reinvestment period, upgrades
may result from stable portfolio credit quality and deleveraging,
leading to higher credit enhancement and excess spread available to
cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Trinitas Euro CLO
II DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores
in connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose in the key rating drivers
any ESG factor which has a significant impact on the rating on an
individual basis.
=========
S P A I N
=========
AERNNOVA AEROSPACE: Fitch Assigns 'B+' Final Rating on Sr. Sec TLB
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Aernnova Aerospace S.A.U.'s (B/Stable)
EUR540 million senior secured TLB a final instrument rating of 'B+'
with a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'. This follows the completion of the
amend and extension (A&E) of its EUR 490 million TLB with an add-on
of EUR50 million, with final terms being in line with its prior
expectations.
The IDR is constrained by Aernnova's small scale, limited product
and customer diversification and currently still high, albeit
improving, leverage. Rating strengths are a robust business
profile, characterised by a leading position in the niche
aero-structure market, high barriers to entry, moderate programme
diversification, as well as long-term and successful cooperation
with its key customer, Airbus SE (A-/Positive).
Key Rating Drivers
Increased Debt, Deleveraging Expected: Following the amend and
extend (A&E) transaction, the TLB has increased by EUR50 million.
Together with higher utilisation of factoring, this will increase
Fitch-defined EBITDA leverage by around 1.0x in 2024 versus its
previous forecast, to 7.4x, above its negative sensitivity of 6.0x.
Nevertheless, strong underlying demand and the expected further
rebound of EBITDA should support deleveraging. Fitch forecasts
EBITDA leverage at around 5.6x in 2025.
Ongoing Profitability Rebound: Aernnova's EBITDA generation is
underpinned by ongoing market recovery and rising production rates
from original equipment manufacturers (OEM). 2023 performance was
broadly in line with its expectations. Fitch anticipates that
Fitch-defined EBITDA margins will not reach pre-pandemic levels of
19%-21% (company guidance is different than Fitch-defined EBITDA)
due to inflationary pressure, supply chain issues and the dilutive
effect on margins from less profitable acquisitions in the UK in
2020 and Portugal in 2022. Fitch forecasts EBITDA margins
increasing to about 10% in 2024 from 8.4% in 2023 and to about 12%
in 2025 and 13% in 2026.
Temporarily Eroded FCF: Fitch expects improved EBITDA generation, a
rise in working capital needs, higher growth capex (concentrated in
2024) and expected higher interest expenses following the A&E will
pressure Aernnova's free cash flow (FCF) generation in 2024-2025.
Fitch forecasts capex increasing to about EUR37 million in 2024
from EUR23 million in 2023, driven by strategic and optimisation
projects to improve profitability and operational efficiency.
Consequently, Fitch has revised its forecast and expect FCF to be
slightly negative in 2024 before becoming marginally positive in
2025. Fitch expects FCF margins to be sustainably positive at over
3% of revenue from 2026 considering capex normalisation and the
absence of dividend payments.
Moderate Diversification: Over 70% of Aernnova's revenue comes from
the commercial sector, with the defense sector contributing about
16% in 2023, slightly up from the historical 10%, while the
business sector contributed 9% of revenue in 2023. This leaves
Aernnova vulnerable to market cycle fluctuations, which had a
notable impact during the pandemic. Additionally, around 25% of the
company's revenues are attributable to wide-body aircraft
production, particularly the A350, which experienced a drastic drop
in demand during the pandemic. However, the rebound in long-haul
flights will support Aernnova's profitability as it bolsters demand
for wide-body aircraft.
Customer Concentration Risk: Aernnova improved its customer
diversification with the acquisition of Embraer's aerostructures
facilities in Portugal in 2022. It also reduced its exposure to
Airbus SE (A-/Positive) from about 63% in 2019 to about 49% in
2023, with Embraer's share amounting to about 23% in 2023.
Nevertheless, customer concentration risk remains material.
Aernnova's performance is closely tied to Airbus's output, which
increased revenue by 11.2% yoy in 2023, with an additional 5% rise
anticipated in 2024.
Key risk mitigators include Aernnova's long-standing partnership
with Airbus, its involvement in various successful Airbus
programmes such as the A350 and A320, and the challenges associated
with replacing Aernnova's role in these programmes in the short
term.
Robust Sector Demand: The strong recovery in air traffic is
continuing in 2024, broadly reaching pre-pandemic levels, leading
to robust demand for aircraft and an uptick in delivery volumes.
With the single-aisle segment bouncing back more rapidly than the
twin-aisle segment, both are contributing to Aernnova's operational
results. Fitch expects single-aisle aircraft deliveries to return
to pre-pandemic levels by end-2024, with wide-body deliveries
rebounding by end-2025. Fitch expects this recovery trajectory to
bolster Aernnova's EBITDA and FCF margins over the medium term.
Derivation Summary
Aernnova operates as a tier 1-tier 2 supplier in the aerospace and
defence (A&D) industry and has a good long-term relationship with
its key customer, Airbus. Aernnova is much smaller than
higher-rated peers such as MTU Aero Engines AG (BBB/Stable) and
Leonardo S.p.A. (BBB-/Stable). Aernnova's EBITDA and FCF margins
were severely squeezed during the pandemic, but have been gradually
recovering since 2021. Its Fitch-defined EBITDA margin of about
8.5% in 2023 was comparable with that of Leonardo, but weaker than
MTU Aero Engines and AI Convoy (Luxembourg) S.a r.l. (B/Stable).
Aernnova's FCF margin was weak during 2020-2023 but is likely to be
positive from 2025.
Aernnova's path of operating profitability recovery is more
constrained than peers due to its high exposure to the wide-body
end-market (around 25% of revenue). Fitch expects FCF to recover to
pre-pandemic levels no earlier than 2026.
Aernnova's rating is constrained by a historically weaker capital
structure than MTU Aero Engines and Leonardo. Fitch expect
Aernnova's total debt/EBITDA in 2024 to remain above 5.5x, the 'b'
midpoint in Fitch's criteria for A&D. A stronger recovery in
wide-body aircrafts segments should support quicker improvement in
EBITDA generation, leading to total debt/EBITDA of less than 5.5x
from 2026.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating case for the Issuer
- Revenue to grow by around 13% in 2024 and 2025 and by about 4% a
year on average during 2026-2027;
- Gradual improvement of profitability; EBITDA margin to improve to
about 13.5% by 2027 from 10% in 2024 driven by improved cost
structure and volume increase with higher prices;
- Working capital outflows between 2% and 3% of revenue during
2024-2026;
- Increased capex in 2024 to 3.7% of revenue and before reversing
to around 2% of revenue during 2025-2027;
- No dividend payments till 2027;
- No M&A.
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that Aernnova would be considered a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy and that it would be reorganised
rather than liquidated. This is driven by its long-term operating
performance record, sustainable business and long-term
relationships with customers.
- Fitch revised Aernnova's GC EBITDA to EUR95 million from EUR90
million taking into account group changes and measures taken by
management to optimise costs. The GC EBITDA reflects its view of a
sustainable, post-reorganisation EBITDA on which Fitch bases the
valuation of the group.
- Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
- Fitch uses an enterprise value multiple of 5.5x EBITDA to
calculate a post-reorganisation valuation, which is comparable with
multiples applied to A&D peers. The multiple is based on Aernnova's
leading market position in a niche industry, long-term and
successful cooperation with its key customer Airbus, high barriers
to entry and historically solid pre-pandemic profitability.
However, the enterprise value multiple reflects the group's smaller
scale than some other Fitch-rated peers, and concentration by
geography and customer base.
- Fitch deducts about EUR95 million from the enterprise value
relating to the group's various factoring facilities.
- Fitch estimates the total amount of senior debt for creditor
claims after the A&E at EUR704 million, which includes the extended
and upsized TLB of EUR 540 million, a secured revolving credit
facility (RCF) of EUR100 million, unsecured bilateral loans of
EUR35 million and other loans of EUR29 million. These assumptions
result in a ranked recovery for the A&E senior secured TLB and RCF
within the 'RR3' range. The waterfall-generated recovery
computation output percentage is 53%, leaving limited headroom at
'RR3' for any additional borrowing.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Total debt/EBITDA below 5.0x on a sustained basis
- FCF margin above 3% on sustained basis
- EBITDA margin above 11%
- Increased customer and end-market diversification
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Total debt/EBITDA above 6.0x on a sustained basis
- Increase in FCF volatility
- EBITDA/interest paid below 2.0x
- EBITDA margin below 8%
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Adequate Liquidity: At end-2023 Aernnova had readily available cash
of EUR33 million (adjusted for about EUR8.7 million by Fitch).
Short-term maturities of EUR170 million included amortisation of
public-institution debt of about EUR38 million and drawn factoring
facilities of EUR94 million. Fitch expects negative FCF of
-EUR14million in 2024 but following the A&E the EUR100 million RCF
will be undrawn and sufficient to cover any cash deficit. Its debt
maturity profile will improve with bullet payments extended to
2030.
The expected recovery of profitability and FCF generation from 2025
will provide an additional cushion for Aernnova's liquidity
position.
Issuer Profile
Aernnova is a leading manufacturer of aerostructures and components
such as wings, empennages and fuselage sections as well as
secondary structures (doors and nacelles). The group also provides
engineering solutions for aerospace OEMs with composite and
metallic capabilities.
Date of Relevant Committee
07 June 2024
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Aernnova Aerospace
S.A.U.
senior secured LT B+ New Rating RR3 B+(EXP)
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
DIGNITY FINANCE: S&P Affirms 'B+ (sf)' Rating on Class A Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+ (sf)' and 'CC (sf)' credit
ratings on Dignity Finance PLC's class A and class B notes.
The affirmations follow Dignity Finance's partial repayment of the
class A notes following a below-par tender offer, which, in line
with S&P's ratings definitions, we view as opportunistic. The
tender offer was completed on July 16, 2024.
On July 4, 2024, Dignity (2002) Ltd. proposed a cash tender offer
to Dignity Finance PLC's class A noteholders to tender their notes
at 97%-99% of the outstanding principal amount, up to a maximum
purchase price of GBP80 million. On July 16, 2024, it purchased
GBP67,023,169.28 of the class A notes at 97% of their outstanding
principal balance.
Under the accepted tender offer, GBP67,023,169.28 of the
outstanding class A notes' balance was redeemed. Dignity Finance
repurchased the selected notes at 97% of the selected class A
notes' outstanding principal amount. The accrued, unpaid interest
since the June 28, 2024 interest payment date (IPD) was also paid
as part of the tender offer.
S&P said, "We view such an offer as opportunistic. In our analysis,
we considered the current 'B+ (sf)' issue credit rating on the
class A notes as a proxy for our assessment of whether the proposed
cash tender offer is opportunistic or distressed. After considering
the notes' legal final maturity date, current secondary market
prices, and the discount to par proposed in the tender offer, we
view the offer as opportunistic.
"The committed liquidity facility remains fully undrawn with
GBP55.0 million available to the issuer, hence we do not believe
there is a realistic possibility of a conventional default on the
class A notes over the near to medium term. Based on all the above,
we consider the tender offer as opportunistic rather than
distressed."
In September 2023, Dignity Finance publicly committed to repay a
minimum of GBP70 million to the class A noteholders by the end of
2024. By the June 2024 IPD, the company was able to source GBP15.6
million of the minimum of GBP70 million, with the remainder to be
made available shortly after the June IPD. Given that the company
is restricted to only two interest payments per year, it opted for
a tender offer. This would allow it to repay noteholders earlier
rather than repaying them on the second IPD, which would be
December 2024.
After the payments made on the June 2024 IPD (GBP15.6 million) and
the completion of the tender offer (GBP67.0 million), the class A
notes redeemed by an additional GBP82.6 million between June and
July 2024. The proceeds to redeem the class A notes, in aggregate
GBP80.6 million, were funded from net available surplus funds from
a funeral plan trust and unutilized net sale proceeds.
On July 4, 2024, Dignity (2002) Ltd. delivered a certificate to the
security trustee confirming its continued intention to prepay the
class A and B notes on or before Dec. 31, 2024. The receipt of the
certificate enables further equity injections from the parent
company to continue until the end of March 2025, and extends the
financial covenant 1.5x EBITDA debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR)
waiver until the end of December 2024.
The challenging operational, regulatory, and macroeconomic
environment continues to put pressure on the business. Dignity
(2002) reported GBP33.4 million of S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA for fiscal 2023, representing a decline of 200 basis points
from fiscal 2022. This reflected an ongoing shift in customer
preference to lower-margin cremation services, operating cost
inflation, and some decline in Dignity (2002)'s market share.
S&P said, "In our base case, we estimate a slower EBITDA
improvement compared to our last review, considering the lower
death rate forecast for fiscal 2024. This will reduce volumes and
affect margins on cremation services, given the sector's high fixed
cost base. We also assume stabilization of Dignity (2002)'s market
share amid efforts to control cost, while price increases started
to take effect in the second half of 2023. At the same time the
effect of the potential EBITDA reduction on the DSCRs will likely
be offset by the lower debt, given the class A notes' partial
repayment.
"The documented definition of covenanted EBITDA DSCR differs from
that we use to determine our base-case DSCR under our corporate
securitization criteria. Our base-case DSCR calculation is based on
cash flow available for debt service (CFADS), which for a given
period is calculated as S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA less
maintenance capital expenditure (capex) to support ongoing
operations, less growth capex, corporate tax, working capital, and
pension liabilities.
"We expect cash flow from core operations to be insufficient to
cover debt service on the notes in the medium term. We note however
that the issuer has access to several sources of liquidity in
addition to cash on the balance sheet, including asset disposals,
available surplus funds from the funeral plan trust, and drawdowns
on the liquidity facility to maintain timely near-term payments on
the rated notes."
Dignity Finance PLC is currently focusing on the existing December
2023 consent from class A and class B noteholders to collapse the
securitization structure. Dignity Finance is currently exploring
options to facilitate a full redemption of the remaining class A
notes balance after the tender offer (GBP61,565,379.2) at 100% of
the principal amount outstanding at the redemption date, including
any accrued but unpaid interest up to that date.
Dignity Finance received approval in December 2023 to redeem the
class B notes at 84.25% of their outstanding principal balance and
accrued but unpaid interest within 30 days of receiving funds, with
the December 2024 IPD as a backstop date.
S&P said, "As highlighted in our previous review, we would view
such a redemption of the class B notes as distressed, since the
noteholders will receive materially less value than promised when
the original debt was issued. We will lower the rating on the class
B notes to 'D (sf)' at the completion of the debt restructuring.
"We could lower the rating on the class A notes if our minimum
projected DSCRs fall below 1.00:1 in the majority of periods for
the class A notes in our downside scenario. This would most likely
happen if management fails to maintain the business as a going
concern, if the liquidity facility is fully drawn, or if the parent
does not provide equity cures. We could also lower the rating on
the class A notes should the issuer propose a distressed below par
repayment offer for the outstanding class A notes or miss an
interest payment."
Dignity Finance is a corporate securitization of the U.K. operating
business of the funeral service provider Dignity (2002). It
originally closed in April 2003 and was last tapped in October
2014.
The transaction will likely qualify for the appointment of an
administrative receiver under the U.K. insolvency regime. An
obligor default would allow the noteholders to gain substantial
control over the charged assets prior to an administrator's
appointment without necessarily accelerating the secured debt, both
at the issuer and at the borrower level.
Dignity Finance's primary sources of funds for principal and
interest payments on the notes are the loans' interest and
principal payments from the borrower and any amounts available
under the undrawn GBP55 million tranched liquidity facility.
S&P said, "Our ratings address the timely payment of interest and
principal due on the notes. They are based primarily on our ongoing
assessment of the borrowing group's underlying business risk
profile, the integrity of the transaction's legal and tax
structure, and the robustness of operating cash flows supported by
structural enhancements."
GALAXY FINCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B2 corporate family rating and
B2-PD probability of default rating on Galaxy Finco Limited, which
is an intermediate holding company of Domestic & General Group
Holdings Limited (D&G or the group), as well as the Caa1 rating of
its backed senior unsecured notes. Moody's also affirmed the B2
rating of the backed senior secured notes issued by Galaxy Bidco
Limited, the immediate subsidiary of Galaxy Finco Limited. The
outlook for both issuers remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Galaxy Finco Limited's B2 CFR reflects the group's strong market
position in the UK, providing extended warranties for domestic
appliances, and growing franchise in Europe and the US, strong
revenue visibility driven by good retention rates and new business
growth and a solid track record of stable EBITDA growth through the
economic cycle. Offsetting these factors are execution risk in
achieving profitable growth and cash generation in the US business,
high leverage and low or negative free cash flow as the group
invests in growth and technology.
The group's shift to a subscription-based model is well underway,
at over 85% of revenue, and customer retention rates are high at
86%. The group's operations in the UK and some European markets are
mature, profitable and cash generative. Overall profitability and
cash generation is held back by high upfront spend relating to the
group's US expansion. If the expansion is successful, Moody's
expect EBITDA to grow substantially over the medium-term leading to
improved margins, as revenue growth exceeds fixed cost growth, and
lower leverage.
D&G's leverage (Moody's gross debt-EBITDA calculation) decreased to
6x at March 31, 2024 despite an increase in borrowings arising from
its part-equity, part-debt financed acquisition of After, Inc.
Moody's leverage ratio also considers deferred consideration which
sits outside of the group. Deleveraging is contingent on EBITDA
growth, and so is subject to execution risk relating to the group's
profitable expansion in the US.
While D&G's operating free cash flow remains low or negative, the
group maintains unrestricted cash of GBP42 million and an RCF with
undrawn capacity of GBP100 million as at March 31, 2024, which
expires in April 2026. The group also has substantial senior
secured debt maturities coming due in 2026, which exposes it to
refinancing risk.
Debt Ratings
The B2 instrument ratings on the backed senior secured notes are in
line with the CFR, which reflects their ranking ahead of the backed
senior unsecured notes, but behind the super senior RCF. The backed
senior unsecured notes, issued by Galaxy Finco Limited, are rated
Caa1, which reflects their junior ranking within the capital
structure.
The B2-PD probability of default rating is in line with the B2 CFR
reflecting Moody's assumption of a 50% recovery rate typical for
transactions including a mix of bank debt and bonds.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that leverage will
continue to improve as D&G's profitability and cash flow benefits
from business growth and operating efficiencies arising from its
digital transformation initiatives and growing subscription
revenues.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The following factors could lead to an upgrade of the ratings: (i)
gross debt-to-EBITDA leverage (Moody's calculation) decreasing to
below 6x on a sustainable basis and successful refinancing of the
group's RCF and senior secured notes maturing in 2026; (ii) US
operations contributing positive EBITDA and sustained positive free
cash flow generation.
Conversely, the following factors could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings: (i) not being able to realise growth and profitability
targets from US expansion; (ii) weaker financial flexibility,
evidenced by leverage increasing to above 7x for a prolonged
period; (iii) meaningful deterioration in D&G's free cash flows and
liquidity, beyond its current business plan expectations; (iv)
difficulty in refinancing the group's RCF and senior secured notes
maturing in 2026.
STONEGATE PUB: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR, Outlook Remains Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B3 long-term corporate family
rating and B3-PD probability of default rating of Stonegate Pub
Company Limited (Stonegate or the company). Concurrently Moody's
have also affirmed the existing B3 backed senior secured ratings
under Stonegate Pub Company Financing 2019 plc. All ratings under
Leased And Tenanted Pubs 1 Limited, including the Ba3 ratings on
the GBP273 million senior secured revolving credit facilities due
2024 and the Caa2 rating on the GBP400 million senior secured
second lien term loan due 2028, have been reviewed in the rating
committee and remain unchanged. The outlook for both entities
remains negative.
At the same time, Moody's have also assigned B3 instrument ratings
to the new GBP1,645 million backed Senior Secured Notes due 2029
and the new EUR470 million backed Floating Rate Senior Secured
Notes due 2029 issued by Stonegate Pub Company Financing 2019 plc.
The proceeds from the issuance of the notes, alongside
approximately GBP532 million of cash on balance sheet, a new GBP156
million Second Lien Facility and a GBP250 million shareholder
contribution (which Moody's expect to meet Moody's criteria for
equity treatment), will be used to fully repay its outstanding debt
under the existing Senior Secured Notes due 2025, the GBP400
million Second Lien facilities and GBP150 million drawings under
the existing Super Senior revolving credit facility (RCF), and
redeem, on or around September 30, 2024, the Class A 5.659% Notes
issued by The Unique Pub Finance Company plc.
Additionally, the company has also raised a new GBP273 million
Super Senior RCF that replaces the previous Super Senior RCF,
matures in January 2029 and is expected to be drawn by GBP98
million at the close of the transaction.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of the B3 CFR follows the recently announced
refinancing transaction and reflects (i) the repayment of
approximately GBP609 million of debt, resulting in a decrease of
the company's Moody's-adjusted Debt/EBITDA (for the restricted
group only, excluding Platinum) to a pro forma level as of the end
of April 2024 of 8.1x from estimated actual levels of 9.9x; and
(ii) the adequate liquidity profile resulting from the extension of
the company's significant debt maturities to early 2029, as well as
the solid post-transaction cash balance of GBP112 million. However,
the ratings remain weakly positioned given (i) the continued
challenging economic environment for pubs stemming from relatively
weak demand and input cost inflation, which creates uncertainty
around pace and timing of earnings recovery; (ii) the still very
high leverage; (iii) the expectation of continued negative free
cash flow generation over the next 12- 18 months caused by high
capex levels as the company continues its ongoing pub conversion
and refurbish programme, as well as increased cash interest costs
following the refinancing transaction; and (iv) Moody's
expectations that Moody's-adjusted EBIT/Interest Expense will
remain below 1.0x until the end of the fiscal year ending in
September 2025.
The Ba3 ratings to the existing RCFs and the Caa2 rating to the
existing second lien loan remain unchanged as Moody's expect a full
repayment with transaction proceeds.
Governance considerations were a key driver of the rating action,
as the GBP250 million contribution by funds managed by TDR Capital
LLP allowed Stonegate's leverage to improve.
Stonegate's operating performance (excluding Platinum) in H1 fiscal
2024 has improved despite the challenging economic environment for
pub operators, with revenues and Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA
increasing by 1% and 7.5% relative to the first half of the
previous year, respectively. These results were driven by continued
increased pricing and efficiency initiatives undertaken by the
management team, although the managed segment continued to
deteriorate due to its higher relative exposure to central city
locations and bars, as well as relatively higher input cost
inflation. Moody's expect performance to continue to improve during
the second half of 2024 as the company continues its pricing
adjustments and pursuing its conversion and refurbishment
programme, while taking advantage of tailwinds caused by the Euro
2024 and Summer Olympics events.
The B3 CFR also reflects (i) the company's strong business profile
which benefits from significant scale, wide geographic spread
across the UK, and a mix between managed and tenanted pubs; (ii) a
history of strong revenue and profit growth up to the onset of the
pandemic; and (iii) solid track record of achieving good returns on
pub conversions and refurbishments, which Moody's expect to
continue.
On the other hand, the CFR is constrained by (i) Stonegate's high
leverage and weak interest coverage; (ii) inflation-driven pressure
on consumer disposable income which continues to make it difficult
for the company to pass on higher costs in respect of its supply
chain, wages and energy costs; and (iii) Moody's expectations that
the company's free cash flow generation will continue to be weak as
it seeks to press on with capital spending in respect of
conversions of tenanted pubs.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty regarding the pace
and timing of earnings recovery, as well as the expectation of
significant negative free cash flow generation and weak interest
coverage over the next 12-18 months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Although unlikely in the next 12-18 months, an upgrade could be
considered if Stonegate achieves a sustained improvement in Moody's
adjusted EBIT to interest coverage around 1.5x and leverage well
below 7.0x, combined with positive FCF and solid liquidity.
A downgrade would be likely if the company's liquidity weakens or
operating conditions and performance deteriorate to an extent that
brings into question sustainability of the capital structure.
Quantitively if the company fails to materially reduce its leverage
from the current levels and interest coverage remaining below 1.0x
could lead to negative rating pressure.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Stonegate's CIS-4 indicates that ESG considerations have a
discernible impact on the current rating, which is lower than it
would have been if ESG risks did not exist. The score mostly
reflects exposure to governance risks stemming from its
concentrated ownership, tolerance for high leverage and relatively
aggressive financial strategy.
LIQUIDITY
Stonegate's liquidity remains adequate. Moody's estimate that the
company will generate around GBP100-120 million of funds from
operations in the next 12 months. Together with a cash balance of
GBP112 million and available RCF of GBP175 million the company will
be able to cover its basic cash obligations and capital expenditure
programme of around GBP170 million per year.
Stonegate also has an established track record of disposing
individual pubs at favorable multiples and Moody's expect this
together with the potential for sale and lease back transactions to
further support the company's liquidity and funding needs.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The backed senior secured notes are secured by a collateral package
which includes share pledges, guarantees and debentures from
Stonegate's material subsidiaries, with the exclusion of companies
within the Unique Pubs sub-grouping, whose assets and cash flows
are used to secure and service its ring-fenced bankruptcy remote
securitisation facilities.
An inter-creditor agreement regulates the relationship between the
rated facilities. In its loss given default analysis Moody's has
used a 50% recovery rate assumption, standard for capital
structures which include a mix of bonds and loans. As such, the
B3-PD PDR is in line with the CFR.
The backed senior secured notes are rated B3, in line with the CFR,
because the subordination cushion provided by ranking ahead of the
second lien facility is offset by the priority claims of the Super
Senior RCF in the event of a default.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Restaurants
published in August 2021.
COMPANY PROFILE
Stonegate is the leading pub and hospitality business in the UK.
After acquiring Ei Group in March 2020, which was the largest L&T
operator, the company became the largest privately held managed pub
and L&T operator in the UK. For the fiscal year ending in September
2023 and excluding Platinum, Stonegate generated GBP1,586 million
of revenue and GBP377 million of Company-reported adjusted EBITDA.
The company is controlled by the private equity firm TDR Capital
LLP on behalf of funds it manages.
TIC BIDCO: S&P Assigns 'B-' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Positive
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B-' long-term issuer credit rating
to TIC Bidco Ltd. (Phenna) and its 'B-' issue-level and '3'
recovery ratings to the company's EUR630 million and GBP220 million
term loan B and the fungible delayed draw facilities of EUR80
million and GBP30 million, in line with the preliminary ratings S&P
assigned on May 29, 2024, following its review of the final
documentation.
S&P said, "The positive outlook reflects our expectation that the
regulatory requirement, mission-critical nature of TICC services,
and tailwinds from ESG-linked initiatives provide solid demand
across its noncyclical end markets and drive Phenna's organic
growth. Coupled with full-year effects and some synergy realization
from historical acquisitions, we expect Phenna could improve its
adjusted EBITDA margin toward 22%-23%, supporting gradual
deleveraging toward an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted level of 7.5x
and modestly positive S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF generation
in 2025.Phenna is planning to refinance its existing private debt,
along with new equity injected by major shareholder Oakley Capital.
Phenna seeks to refinance its existing debt of GBP745 million with
a new EUR630 million and GBP220 million term loan B (TLB). This
accompanies the issuance of a new senior secured revolving credit
facility (RCF) of GBP80 million and a fungible delayed draw
facility of EUR80 million and GBP30 million, both of which remain
undrawn at the close of transaction. To demonstrate continued
commitment to the business, financial sponsor-owner Oakley Capital
has injected GBP130 million of new equity to support the ongoing
growth of the company.
"We note GBP789 million of preference shares are also present in
the capital structure and sit at an entity above TIC BidCo Ltd. We
treat this as equity and exclude it from our leverage and coverage
calculations because we see an alignment of interest between
noncommon and common equity holders.
"Our business risk profile has support from Phenna's high share of
recurring revenue and its leading market positions in an industry
characterized by high entry barriers and secular tailwinds. Phenna
currently has a comprehensive portfolio of more than 100
accreditations, which usually require a long lead time and effort
to obtain. Alongside access to a skilled and specialist workforce
and a global network of laboratories and facilities, these create
an effective barrier for new entrants.
"The company has market-leading positions in niche areas across
multiple noncyclical end markets. Within the infrastructure and
build environment, Phenna holds the No. 1 position in the U.K. and
Ireland, in advanced soil testing in the U.K., and in fire testing
in U.A.E. Within certification and compliance, Phenna enjoys the
No. 1 position in energy performance, cyber essentials, and
electrical certification. Within food and pharma, Phenna has the
top two positions in veterinary meat inspection and drug and
alcohol testing in the U.K. Coupled with secular growth trends
driven by regulatory requirement and ESG-linked initiatives, we
expect these will generate a high share of recurring revenue for
Phenna and result in good revenue predictability over the economic
cycle, which benefits credit quality."
Phenna is fairly diversified in service offerings, end-market
focus, and customer mix. Phenna is a leading specialist provider of
testing (41% of revenue), inspection (26%), certification (13%),
and compliance (19%) services. This spans a number of noncyclical
end markets, including infrastructure (33%), built environment
(17%), food and pharma (20%), certification and compliance (18%),
and niche industrials (12%).
S&P said, "Compared to other rated TICC peers with niche service
offerings and single end-market focus, we consider Phenna more
diversified with a broader service offerings and end-market focus,
which can help improve business resilience to ride through peaks
and troughs in the economic cycle. In addition, we note Phenna has
a diversified customer base, with top 10 customers accounting for
about 15% of revenue and its top 30 customers representing about
21% of revenue. The modest customer concentration also reinforces
its business position, in our view.
"Phenna's limited scale and geographical concentration constrain
our business risk profile. As of 2023 year-end, the company has a
pro forma annual revenue of about GBP450 million. In our view, the
current revenue profile is smaller than other rated TICC service
providers. Phenna has a global operation in 12 countries across
five continents, but it has substantial exposure to the U.K. and
Ireland (78%). Although we understand the company is actively
pursuing overseas acquisitions to drive geographical
diversification, we believe it currently lacks scale, and high
geographical concentration in Europe makes it less advantageous
compared with larger, geographically diversified service providers
to which we assign a stronger business risk profile.
"The TICC market is fragmented and competitive, and industry
participants are inherently sensitive to some operational risk. We
acknowledge the fragmented nature of the TICC market, which
naturally results in a higher competition and lower pricing power
for industry participants. Phenna's market-leading positions in
niche areas across multiple noncyclical end markets partly offsets
this. The company has a global workforce of over 5,300 and its
staff costs account for about 47% of annual revenue. The large pool
of skilled employee base makes Phenna inherently vulnerable to
issues like labor scarcity and wage inflation. Coupled with the
operating costs of running laboratories and facilities, these limit
the flexibility of the company's cost base and could constrain the
company's margin in the event of demand shortfall and difficult
operating conditions.
"In our view, Phenna's good cost discipline and its ability to pass
through cost increases help partly mitigate some pressure on the
cost base. We note the TICC market can also expose service
providers to reputational and litigation risk if work is conducted
inconsistently with regulatory standards. However, we are currently
unaware of such issues and understand Phenna has a strong
reputation in the market.
"In our view, Phenna will continue to actively execute its buy and
build growth strategy in a fragmented industry. Since its inception
in 2018, Phenna has completed more than 50 acquisitions,
constructing a diversified portfolio of complementary brands across
multiple noncyclical end markets. Historical acquisitions provided
the company opportunities to strengthen leadership in niche areas
and accelerate the expansion of its global footprint. As part of
its inorganic growth strategy, we anticipate Phenna will actively
pursue value-adding opportunities outside of Europe and high-growth
end markets to drive geographical and end-market diversification,
building a more balanced international TICC platform at scale.
"We note an active M&A playbook inherently presents some cost
synergy realization opportunities in the form of lab and site
consolidation and headcount reduction. However, these usually take
time to translate into tangible financial benefits. Given the sheer
volume of historical and pipeline acquisitions, we expect the
exceptional costs associated with a bolt-on acquisition strategy
and the subsequent integration activities could continue to weigh
on the business's earning profile and delay its margin expansion.
"Phenna's financial risk profile reflects our expectation that the
company's adjusted leverage and funds from operations (FFO) to debt
will remain highly leveraged in the next 12-24 months. From 2024
on, we expect the regulatory requirement, the mission-critical
nature of TICC services, and tailwinds from ESG-linked initiatives
will provide solid demand across its noncyclical end markets and
drive Phenna's organic growth. In our base case, we include
acquisition spending of about GBP185 million in 2024 and GBP105
million in 2025, adding annualized revenue of about GBP135 million
and about GBP80 million, respectively. Coupled with full-year
effects and some synergy realization from historical acquisitions,
we expect Phenna could improve its adjusted EBITDA margin toward
22%-23%, supporting gradual deleveraging toward an S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted level of 7.5x and modestly positive S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted FOCF generation from 2025.
"The positive outlook reflects our expectation that the regulatory
requirement, mission-critical nature of TICC services and tailwinds
from ESG-linked initiatives will continue to provide solid demand
across its noncyclical end markets and drive Phenna's organic
growth. Coupled with full-year effects and some synergy realization
from historical acquisitions, we expect Phenna could improve its
adjusted EBITDA margin toward 22%-23%, supporting gradual
deleveraging toward an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted level of 7.5x
and modestly positive S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF generation
from 2025."
S&P could revise the outlook to stable if:
-- Weaker trading performance or ongoing exceptional costs lead
S&P to expect lower or negative ongoing FOCF;
-- The company takes on highly aggressive debt-funded acquisitions
or dividends that prevent deleveraging and constrain interest
coverage; or
-- Weak cash flow generation leads to tightened liquidity.
S&P said, "We could upgrade the group by one notch if it
outperforms our forecasts, resulting in leverage sustained below
7.5x, coupled with consistently positive FOCF generation, and
improved FFO cash interest coverage toward 2.0x.
"Governance factors are a moderately negative consideration in our
credit analysis of Phenna. Our assessment of the company's
financial risk profile as highly leveraged reflects corporate
decision-making that prioritizes the interests of the controlling
owners, in line with our view of most rated entities owned by
private-equity sponsors. Our assessment also reflects generally
finite holding periods and a focus on maximizing shareholder
returns."
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week July 29 to August 2, 2024
--------------------------------------------------------
Altice France Holding SA 10.500 5/15/2027 USD 36.792
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 11.000 9/30/2026 EUR 45.455
Solocal Group 10.719 3/15/2025 EUR 21.576
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 12.750 11/30/2027 EUR 0.388
Fastator AB 12.500 9/26/2025 SEK 34.681
Oscar Properties Holding A 11.270 7/5/2024 SEK 0.190
Turkiye Government Bond 10.400 10/13/2032 TRY 49.000
UBS AG/London 17.500 2/7/2025 USD 12.510
Tinkoff Bank JSC Via TCS F 11.002 USD 42.854
Fastator AB 12.500 9/25/2026 SEK 34.381
Bilt Paper BV 10.360 USD 1.751
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 13.625 11/30/2027 USD 1.000
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 13.625 11/30/2027 USD 1.000
Marginalen Bank Bankaktieb 12.695 SEK 45.007
Kvalitena AB publ 10.067 4/2/2024 SEK 45.000
Ilija Batljan Invest AB 10.470 SEK 5.000
Bakkegruppen AS 11.720 2/3/2025 NOK 45.396
Plusplus Capital Financial 11.000 7/29/2026 EUR 10.534
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 11.000 9/30/2026 EUR 45.455
IOG Plc 13.217 9/20/2024 EUR 7.831
Avangardco Investments Pub 10.000 10/29/2018 USD 0.108
Saderea DAC 12.500 11/30/2026 USD 49.141
UkrLandFarming PLC 10.875 3/26/2018 USD 1.983
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 11.750 2/9/2022 USD 0.628
R-Logitech Finance SA 10.250 9/26/2027 EUR 15.000
Sidetur Finance BV 10.000 4/20/2016 USD 0.429
Societe Generale SA 20.000 9/18/2026 USD 12.500
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.500 1/28/2018 USD 0.010
Solocal Group 10.719 3/15/2025 EUR 9.389
Transcapitalbank JSC Via T 10.000 USD 1.450
Immigon Portfolioabbau AG 10.055 EUR 4.534
Solarnative GmbH 12.250 4/5/2029 EUR 21.110
Altice France Holding SA 10.500 5/15/2027 USD 37.636
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 11.000 2/9/2021 USD 0.641
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 12/30/2024 EUR 9.410
Fastator AB 12.500 9/24/2027 SEK 34.752
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.900 9/27/2024 EUR 9.330
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.250 1/23/2018 USD 3.757
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.875 2/28/2018 USD 5.275
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.500 1/28/2018 USD 0.010
KPNQwest NV 10.000 3/15/2012 EUR 0.817
Goldman Sachs Internationa 16.288 3/17/2027 USD 24.750
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 22.000 8/6/2024 USD 12.100
Bilt Paper BV 10.360 USD 1.751
Societe Generale SA 15.600 8/25/2026 USD 39.830
Societe Generale SA 20.000 7/21/2026 USD 3.400
Raiffeisen Switzerland BV 16.000 3/4/2025 CHF 25.740
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.700 9/27/2024 EUR 7.900
Vontobel Financial Product 16.350 2/7/2025 EUR 23.206
Phosphorus Holdco PLC 10.000 4/1/2019 GBP 0.457
Bulgaria Steel Finance BV 12.000 5/4/2013 EUR 0.216
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/24/2037 UAH 35.477
UBS AG/London 28.000 9/23/2024 USD 2.360
Societe Generale SA 18.000 8/30/2024 USD 33.800
UBS AG 10.000 7/29/2025 USD 34.160
Bank Vontobel AG 11.000 4/11/2025 CHF 46.400
NTRP Via Interpipe Ltd 10.250 8/2/2017 USD 1.011
Societe Generale SA 14.000 8/8/2024 USD 38.803
UBS AG/London 11.200 8/26/2024 USD 20.510
Finca Uco Cjsc 12.000 2/10/2025 AMD 0.000
Societe Generale SA 11.000 7/14/2026 USD 13.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 1/22/2025 CHF 19.390
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.400 9/27/2024 EUR 45.160
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 6/27/2025 EUR 14.340
Leonteq Securities AG 21.000 10/30/2024 CHF 38.510
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 8/21/2024 CHF 41.640
Societe Generale SA 27.300 10/20/2025 USD 7.720
UBS AG/London 20.000 11/29/2024 USD 17.870
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 12/30/2024 EUR 8.800
Codere Finance 2 Luxembour 12.750 11/30/2027 EUR 0.388
UkrLandFarming PLC 10.875 3/26/2018 USD 1.983
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 2/16/2037 UAH 32.780
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 3/24/2037 UAH 32.789
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/1/2037 UAH 32.795
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/8/2037 UAH 32.802
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/20/2037 UAH 33.062
Ukraine Government Bond 11.000 4/23/2037 UAH 32.820
BLT Finance BV 12.000 2/10/2015 USD 10.500
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 11.750 2/9/2022 USD 0.628
Tonon Luxembourg SA 12.500 5/14/2024 USD 2.215
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.875 1/13/2020 USD 36.000
Virgolino de Oliveira Fina 10.875 1/13/2020 USD 36.000
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/30/2024 USD 21.000
Societe Generale SA 18.000 8/30/2024 USD 19.400
Societe Generale SA 15.000 8/30/2024 USD 18.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 3/11/2025 CHF 27.050
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 2/27/2026 EUR 18.520
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 2/27/2026 EUR 19.910
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.300 6/27/2025 EUR 23.180
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.600 6/27/2025 EUR 27.370
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.400 3/28/2025 EUR 25.560
Bank Vontobel AG 14.000 3/5/2025 CHF 26.500
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 18.500 3/28/2025 EUR 25.890
Vontobel Financial Product 16.000 3/28/2025 EUR 23.355
Vontobel Financial Product 29.200 1/17/2025 EUR 39.897
Swissquote Bank Europe SA 25.320 2/26/2025 CHF 51.520
Evocabank CJSC 11.000 9/28/2024 AMD 8.850
UBS AG/London 21.600 8/2/2027 SEK 32.930
Societe Generale SA 15.110 10/31/2024 USD 21.500
Societe Generale SA 15.000 9/29/2025 USD 8.400
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.550 8/18/2025 USD 24.620
Vontobel Financial Product 26.450 1/24/2025 EUR 21.870
Societe Generale SA 20.000 1/29/2026 USD 9.800
Societe Generale SA 14.300 8/22/2024 USD #N/A N/A
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.300 9/27/2024 EUR 26.250
Societe Generale SA 20.000 10/3/2024 USD #N/A N/A
Armenian Economy Developme 10.500 5/4/2025 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 18.000 8/21/2024 CHF 51.130
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 7/25/2012 EUR 0.100
Teksid Aluminum Luxembourg 12.375 7/15/2011 EUR 0.619
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.750 3/1/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 2/16/2009 CHF 0.100
Petromena ASA 10.850 11/19/2018 USD 0.622
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.900 11/16/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 10/8/2008 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 18.250 10/2/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/20/2017 AUD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 10/28/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.400 6/12/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 5/22/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 15.000 6/4/2009 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 23.300 9/16/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.000 7/4/2011 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 12/26/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 10/23/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 10/22/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.150 10/30/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.100 11/12/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.500 8/9/2010 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 6/29/2009 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 15.000 3/30/2011 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.500 11/28/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 14.900 9/15/2008 EUR 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 3/27/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 12/19/2011 USD 0.100
Sidetur Finance BV 10.000 4/20/2016 USD 0.429
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.500 4/24/2026 EUR 19.650
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 4/24/2026 EUR 21.130
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.700 2/17/2025 EUR 26.130
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.700 2/3/2025 EUR 25.890
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 1/2/2026 EUR 17.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 12.030
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/2/2026 EUR 23.630
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 25.000 9/27/2024 EUR 28.890
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.500 9/23/2024 EUR 25.730
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/1/2024 USD 12.500
Societe Generale SA 16.000 8/1/2024 USD 23.300
Societe Generale SA 15.000 8/1/2024 USD 19.400
EFG International Finance 10.300 8/23/2024 USD 11.950
Societe Generale SA 22.750 10/17/2024 USD 20.610
Erste Group Bank AG 14.500 5/31/2026 EUR 37.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 4/24/2026 EUR 23.470
Swissquote Bank SA 15.740 10/31/2024 CHF 34.990
Vontobel Financial Product 13.000 12/31/2024 EUR 48.790
Vontobel Financial Product 14.750 12/31/2024 EUR 47.420
Inecobank CJSC 10.000 4/28/2025 AMD 0.000
UBS AG/London 13.000 9/30/2024 CHF 21.680
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.500 12/31/2024 EUR 12.880
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 46.380
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 23.000 9/27/2024 EUR 41.370
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/3/2025 EUR 49.950
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 1/3/2025 EUR 46.410
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 1/3/2025 EUR 44.330
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 22.000 1/3/2025 EUR 38.860
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 6/27/2025 EUR 47.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 6/27/2025 EUR 18.610
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 27.000 9/27/2024 EUR 46.660
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 6/27/2025 EUR 20.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.100 12/31/2024 EUR 47.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 9/27/2024 EUR 49.520
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 21.000 9/27/2024 EUR 43.750
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 1/3/2025 EUR 47.790
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 1/3/2025 EUR 41.140
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 25.000 1/3/2025 EUR 37.250
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 6/27/2025 EUR 16.160
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/16/2025 CHF 45.690
Vontobel Financial Product 20.250 12/31/2024 EUR 19.830
Vontobel Financial Product 16.500 12/31/2024 EUR 46.230
Vontobel Financial Product 18.500 12/31/2024 EUR 45.300
Vontobel Financial Product 20.250 12/31/2024 EUR 44.420
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 16.500 12/27/2024 EUR 17.440
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 1/3/2025 EUR 41.510
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.500 1/2/2026 EUR 15.820
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 15.500 12/31/2024 EUR 44.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.250 9/25/2024 EUR 15.350
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 3/28/2025 EUR 44.120
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 3/28/2025 EUR 40.810
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 3/28/2025 EUR 38.470
Leonteq Securities AG 25.000 1/3/2025 CHF 52.380
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 10/2/2024 CHF 44.970
Leonteq Securities AG 21.000 1/3/2025 CHF 31.280
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 19.000 10/2/2024 CHF 57.260
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 24.000 11/22/2024 EUR 39.670
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.200 12/31/2024 EUR 12.580
Societe Generale SA 20.000 12/18/2025 USD 21.900
UBS AG/London 14.250 8/19/2024 CHF 27.920
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.600 9/27/2024 EUR 14.590
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/9/2025 CHF 32.480
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 1/9/2025 CHF 40.300
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 9/27/2024 EUR 30.550
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.800 9/27/2024 EUR 29.270
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.800 9/27/2024 EUR 28.280
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.900 9/27/2024 EUR 27.400
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 26.600
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.100 9/27/2024 EUR 25.880
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.900 8/23/2024 EUR 42.610
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.800 2/28/2025 EUR 48.420
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.700 8/23/2024 EUR 29.180
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.500 11/22/2024 EUR 32.740
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.100 2/28/2025 EUR 36.710
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 2/28/2025 EUR 35.970
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.500 2/28/2025 EUR 35.100
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 25.000 9/5/2024 EUR 44.950
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 24.000 9/5/2024 CHF 45.640
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/4/2024 CHF 43.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.100 12/31/2024 EUR 30.470
UniCredit Bank GmbH 20.000 12/31/2024 EUR 29.350
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/30/2024 CHF 47.830
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.100 9/27/2024 EUR 39.530
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.400 9/27/2024 EUR 37.580
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.400 12/31/2024 EUR 48.880
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 8/7/2024 CHF 7.730
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 30.000 8/7/2024 CHF 35.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.500 12/31/2024 EUR 33.260
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 8/7/2024 CHF 33.410
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.300 12/31/2024 EUR 32.520
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.000 9/25/2024 EUR 13.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.700 9/27/2024 EUR 46.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.500 12/30/2024 EUR 8.450
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.500 9/27/2024 EUR 10.660
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/25/2024 EUR 14.670
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 16.000 11/22/2024 EUR 45.160
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.500 11/22/2024 EUR 47.390
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 15.000 1/22/2025 CHF 51.280
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.100 9/5/2024 EUR 35.140
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.000 9/27/2024 EUR 49.410
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 1/24/2025 EUR 10.210
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.100 9/27/2024 EUR 44.890
UBS AG/London 10.000 3/23/2026 USD 23.010
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 1/3/2025 EUR 38.810
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 1/3/2025 EUR 48.340
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 10.500 1/22/2025 EUR 12.150
Vontobel Financial Product 13.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.620
Vontobel Financial Product 17.000 9/27/2024 EUR 40.520
Vontobel Financial Product 14.000 9/27/2024 EUR 43.690
Armenian Economy Developme 11.000 10/3/2025 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.900 9/27/2024 EUR 41.810
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 12/31/2024 EUR 47.390
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 2/28/2025 EUR 49.110
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 19.000 2/28/2025 EUR 46.070
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 13.900 3/28/2025 EUR 16.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.600 3/28/2025 EUR 41.670
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.200 8/23/2024 EUR 32.340
Vontobel Financial Product 24.500 9/27/2024 EUR 11.871
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 8/28/2024 CHF 46.090
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.900 8/23/2024 EUR 39.770
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.100 12/30/2024 EUR 8.490
Vontobel Financial Product 10.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.130
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.400 9/27/2024 EUR 46.420
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.300 12/31/2024 EUR 31.560
Leonteq Securities AG 28.000 9/5/2024 CHF 41.680
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/5/2024 CHF 44.230
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.500 12/31/2024 EUR 34.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.500 8/23/2024 EUR 35.640
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 8/28/2024 CHF 9.160
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.900 11/22/2024 EUR 47.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.300 9/27/2024 EUR 35.120
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.300 12/30/2024 EUR 34.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.100 12/30/2024 EUR 41.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.750 9/27/2024 EUR 24.010
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/28/2024 CHF 5.640
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 12/30/2024 EUR 28.040
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.800 9/27/2024 EUR 32.110
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 10/16/2024 CHF 27.590
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.500 9/27/2024 EUR 48.880
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.800 9/27/2024 EUR 32.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.200 12/30/2024 EUR 35.710
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 3/28/2025 EUR 39.380
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.600 12/31/2024 EUR 35.490
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 6/27/2025 EUR 12.090
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.700 12/30/2024 EUR 7.800
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.700 11/22/2024 EUR 34.200
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.800 8/23/2024 EUR 44.600
UniCredit Bank GmbH 17.000 12/31/2024 EUR 41.380
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.800 12/31/2024 EUR 37.350
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.900 9/27/2024 EUR 38.600
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.100 12/30/2024 EUR 37.980
Swissquote Bank SA 23.200 8/28/2024 CHF 44.070
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.200 12/31/2024 EUR 45.180
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.900 12/31/2024 EUR 38.530
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.800 12/31/2024 EUR 28.490
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.700 12/31/2024 EUR 28.140
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.200 11/22/2024 EUR 45.910
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 18.800 9/18/2024 CHF 56.470
UniCredit Bank GmbH 15.000 8/23/2024 EUR 30.660
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.000 12/20/2024 EUR 49.570
BNP Paribas Issuance BV 19.000 9/18/2026 EUR 0.980
BNP Paribas Issuance BV 20.000 9/18/2026 EUR 31.500
Finca Uco Cjsc 13.000 5/30/2025 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 9/18/2024 CHF 23.580
UniCredit Bank GmbH 16.100 12/31/2024 EUR 43.140
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 12/31/2024 EUR 39.880
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 21.710
Bank Vontobel AG 29.000 9/10/2024 USD 38.900
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.700 9/27/2024 EUR 33.480
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 15.000 12/30/2024 EUR 47.770
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 16.000 12/30/2024 EUR 46.290
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 17.000 12/30/2024 EUR 44.980
BNP Paribas Emissions- und 12.000 12/30/2024 EUR 48.630
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 22.250 6/27/2025 EUR 19.260
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 6/27/2025 EUR 15.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.750 6/27/2025 EUR 12.770
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.250 6/27/2025 EUR 36.070
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.500 6/27/2025 EUR 32.780
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 12/27/2024 CHF 49.320
Leonteq Securities AG 23.000 12/27/2024 CHF 26.960
UBS AG/London 11.250 9/9/2024 CHF 48.300
Vontobel Financial Product 11.000 12/31/2024 EUR 45.350
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.900 8/23/2024 EUR 46.770
UniCredit Bank GmbH 12.600 8/23/2024 EUR 49.210
ACBA Bank OJSC 11.000 12/1/2025 AMD 0.000
Bank Vontobel AG 13.500 1/8/2025 CHF 10.500
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 1/13/2025 CHF 17.070
Ameriabank CJSC 10.000 2/20/2025 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.000 11/22/2024 EUR 49.740
Bank Vontobel AG 10.000 9/2/2024 EUR 46.600
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 23.290 8/29/2024 CHF 45.550
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 12.000 9/4/2024 CHF 49.730
Basler Kantonalbank 22.000 9/6/2024 CHF 41.050
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 10.750 12/27/2024 EUR 14.080
Vontobel Financial Product 20.000 9/27/2024 EUR 48.540
Bank Vontobel AG 20.500 11/4/2024 CHF 52.000
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.500 1/24/2025 EUR 36.090
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 45.110
Vontobel Financial Product 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 47.390
Vontobel Financial Product 13.500 9/27/2024 EUR 50.090
Vontobel Financial Product 24.500 9/27/2024 EUR 49.690
Vontobel Financial Product 20.500 9/27/2024 EUR 42.230
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 8/13/2024 CHF 50.240
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/25/2024 EUR 13.860
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 20.000 9/26/2024 USD 15.000
Corner Banca SA 18.500 9/23/2024 CHF 7.560
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 20.000 9/27/2024 EUR 9.020
Swissquote Bank SA 16.380 7/31/2024 CHF 7.050
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.800 12/30/2024 EUR 33.860
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.200 12/30/2024 EUR 38.910
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 31.230
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.100 9/27/2024 EUR 37.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.000 3/28/2025 EUR 42.280
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 12/30/2024 EUR 17.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.800 8/23/2024 EUR 34.720
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.100 10/25/2024 EUR 36.770
Vontobel Financial Product 12.000 9/27/2024 EUR 47.770
Vontobel Financial Product 21.000 9/27/2024 EUR 36.700
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 24.000 8/14/2024 CHF 29.550
Vontobel Financial Product 14.100 7/28/2026 EUR 27.645
Swissquote Bank SA 27.050 7/31/2024 CHF 43.070
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.500 9/27/2024 EUR 47.920
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.300 9/27/2024 EUR 29.500
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.000 3/28/2025 EUR 37.000
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.100 3/28/2025 EUR 37.660
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 21.000 8/14/2024 CHF 37.590
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.500 9/27/2024 EUR 7.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 12/30/2024 EUR 17.380
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.200 12/30/2024 EUR 7.250
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.000 3/28/2025 EUR 21.270
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.300 3/28/2025 EUR 10.720
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.400 3/28/2025 EUR 9.700
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.400 8/23/2024 EUR 30.930
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.200 10/25/2024 EUR 41.370
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.000 11/22/2024 EUR 41.980
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 12.000 10/11/2024 EUR 49.800
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 18.000 11/22/2024 EUR 41.250
Vontobel Financial Product 13.250 9/27/2024 EUR 41.650
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 12.000 1/24/2025 EUR 42.190
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 8/14/2024 CHF 16.780
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 26.000 7/31/2024 CHF 37.270
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 8/7/2024 CHF 22.790
UBS AG/London 15.750 10/21/2024 CHF 44.100
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.000 1/3/2025 EUR 30.840
UBS AG/London 14.500 10/14/2024 CHF 41.600
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 13.000 10/21/2024 EUR 47.800
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 15.000 9/12/2024 USD 5.070
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 13.300 8/23/2024 EUR 45.070
UBS AG/London 13.500 8/15/2024 CHF 43.500
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 9/27/2024 EUR 49.070
Bank Vontobel AG 10.500 7/29/2024 EUR 46.500
Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd/ 12.720 2/17/2025 CHF 39.200
UBS AG/London 12.000 11/4/2024 EUR 47.650
UBS AG/London 11.590 5/1/2025 USD 9.890
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 19.000 8/8/2024 CHF 33.190
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 38.660
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 12.000 9/3/2024 EUR 49.630
Leonteq Securities AG 24.000 9/25/2024 CHF 46.090
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/25/2024 CHF 22.460
UniCredit Bank GmbH 17.200 12/31/2024 EUR 26.480
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.800 12/31/2024 EUR 25.910
UniCredit Bank GmbH 19.600 12/31/2024 EUR 25.680
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/25/2024 CHF 24.660
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.500 4/7/2026 EUR 42.650
UniCredit Bank GmbH 18.000 12/31/2024 EUR 26.170
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.000 1/3/2025 EUR 33.340
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 14.000 10/24/2025 EUR 18.430
Citigroup Global Markets F 25.530 2/18/2025 EUR 0.040
UBS AG/London 10.500 9/23/2024 EUR 49.650
Bank Vontobel AG 11.000 9/10/2024 EUR 49.300
UBS AG/London 11.250 9/16/2024 EUR 47.300
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 11.800 9/27/2024 EUR 47.310
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 22.500 9/27/2024 EUR 51.450
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 11.500 10/25/2024 EUR 29.800
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 16.800 9/27/2024 EUR 49.820
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.500 9/27/2024 EUR 41.260
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 10/25/2024 EUR 33.110
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.900 11/22/2024 EUR 35.520
ACBA Bank OJSC 11.500 3/1/2026 AMD 0.000
Evocabank CJSC 11.000 9/27/2025 AMD 0.000
Raiffeisen Switzerland BV 12.300 8/21/2024 CHF 6.630
National Mortgage Co RCO C 12.000 3/30/2026 AMD 0.000
Leonteq Securities AG 28.000 8/21/2024 CHF 35.980
Leonteq Securities AG 20.000 8/21/2024 CHF 32.490
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 2/28/2025 EUR 38.730
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 15.000 8/23/2024 EUR 29.270
UniCredit Bank GmbH 14.300 8/23/2024 EUR 32.270
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemb 10.000 8/23/2024 EUR 38.400
Bank Vontobel AG 10.000 8/19/2024 CHF 3.400
Finca Uco Cjsc 13.000 11/16/2024 AMD 0.000
UniCredit Bank GmbH 11.000 8/23/2024 EUR 45.590
UniCredit Bank GmbH 10.100 8/23/2024 EUR 47.470
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.500 12/30/2024 EUR 34.330
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.900 3/28/2025 EUR 36.370
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.500 8/23/2024 EUR 33.820
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.100 9/27/2024 EUR 49.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.600 9/27/2024 EUR 27.320
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 30.570
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.800 9/27/2024 EUR 36.560
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.100 12/30/2024 EUR 34.020
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.000 3/28/2025 EUR 36.980
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.300 6/27/2025 EUR 42.080
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.800 8/23/2024 EUR 37.510
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.400 10/25/2024 EUR 39.130
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 51.180
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.100 8/23/2024 EUR 30.230
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.600 11/22/2024 EUR 33.740
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.300 11/22/2024 EUR 39.790
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.500 9/27/2024 EUR 44.520
EFG International Finance 11.120 12/27/2024 EUR 39.450
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genosse 20.000 9/11/2024 CHF 40.330
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.400 9/27/2024 EUR 42.890
UniCredit Bank GmbH 13.400 9/27/2024 EUR 35.160
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.800 9/27/2024 EUR 37.490
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 17.900 9/27/2024 EUR 47.800
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 12.000 9/27/2024 EUR 39.180
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.300 9/27/2024 EUR 33.870
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.900 9/27/2024 EUR 37.140
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.600 9/27/2024 EUR 41.380
Bank Vontobel AG 15.500 11/18/2024 CHF 40.500
Swissquote Bank SA 24.040 9/11/2024 CHF 41.300
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 22.000 9/11/2024 CHF 40.250
Leonteq Securities AG 18.000 9/11/2024 CHF 8.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 17.300 9/27/2024 EUR 49.910
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.500 12/30/2024 EUR 51.200
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 16.800 8/23/2024 EUR 50.810
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 12/30/2024 EUR 35.420
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.400 9/27/2024 EUR 33.660
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 14.100 12/30/2024 EUR 36.760
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.400 12/30/2024 EUR 40.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.400 6/27/2025 EUR 40.510
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.500 6/27/2025 EUR 43.100
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 18.100 3/28/2025 EUR 21.130
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 19.600 11/22/2024 EUR 7.680
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.700 11/22/2024 EUR 34.450
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.800 11/22/2024 EUR 37.580
Leonteq Securities AG/Guer 11.000 10/11/2024 CHF 49.610
Zurcher Kantonalbank Finan 12.000 10/4/2024 EUR 49.240
Vontobel Financial Product 15.500 9/27/2024 EUR 42.020
Vontobel Financial Product 18.000 9/27/2024 EUR 39.080
Vontobel Financial Product 19.500 9/27/2024 EUR 37.850
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 15.100 12/30/2024 EUR 31.580
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 10.800 12/30/2024 EUR 36.860
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 11.100 12/30/2024 EUR 39.010
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 13.300 6/27/2025 EUR 40.060
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.800 10/25/2024 EUR 35.820
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 12.600 11/22/2024 EUR 36.640
Deutsche Bank AG/London 12.780 3/16/2028 TRY 47.202
Deutsche Bank AG/London 14.900 5/30/2028 TRY 49.966
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.432 1/8/2009 ILS 0.100
Privatbank CJSC Via UK SPV 10.875 2/28/2018 USD 5.275
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.800 8/21/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.250 12/31/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.000 12/14/2012 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 6/11/2038 JPY 0.100
Banco Espirito Santo SA 10.000 12/6/2021 EUR 0.058
Credit Agricole Corporate 10.200 12/13/2027 TRY 47.284
Tonon Luxembourg SA 12.500 5/14/2024 USD 2.215
PA Resources AB 13.500 3/3/2016 SEK 0.124
Tailwind Energy Chinook Lt 12.500 9/27/2019 USD 1.500
Phosphorus Holdco PLC 10.000 4/1/2019 GBP 0.457
Bulgaria Steel Finance BV 12.000 5/4/2013 EUR 0.216
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.200 5/14/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.600 4/22/2014 MXN 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 16.000 11/9/2008 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.442 11/22/2008 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 7/4/2011 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 17.000 6/2/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 13.500 6/2/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 10.000 6/17/2009 USD 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 11.000 7/4/2011 CHF 0.100
Lehman Brothers Treasury C 12.000 7/13/2037 JPY 0.100
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 23.600 12/31/2024 EUR 26.840
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 14.700 6/27/2025 EUR 21.490
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 20.000 6/27/2025 EUR 24.900
DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentra 18.700 6/27/2025 EUR 26.650
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
The TCR Europe subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for
members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription
or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter Chapman at 215-945-7000.
* * * End of Transmission * * *