/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/241211.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Wednesday, December 11, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 248
Headlines
A Z E R B A I J A N
AZERBAIJAN: S&P Affirms 'BB+/B' Sovereign Credit Ratings
B E L G I U M
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV: Egan-Jones Retains BB+ Sr. Unsecured Ratings
B U L G A R I A
HUVEPHARMA EOOD: S&P Raises ICR to 'BB+' on Sustained Deleveraging
F I N L A N D
AMER SPORTS: Moody's Upgrades CFR to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable
F R A N C E
EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Ratings to BB
KERSIA INTERNATIONAL: S&P Raises ICR to 'B', Outlook Stable
LAGARDERE SA: Egan-Jones Retains B Senior Unsecured Ratings
SEINE FINANCE: Moody's Hikes CFR to B2, Alters Outlook to Stable
I R E L A N D
FINANCE IRELAND NO. 5: S&P Raises Cl. E-Dfrd Notes Rating to 'BB+'
MONUMENT CLO 2: S&P Assigns B+ (sf) Rating to Class F-1 Notes
PALMER SQUARE 2023-3: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to Cl. E-R Notes
SOUND POINT 12: S&P Assigns Prelim B- (sf) Rating to Cl. F Notes
WATERFORD WHISKY: Faces Receivership After Failing to Raise Funds
I T A L Y
ENEL SPA: Egan-Jones Retains BB Senior Unsecured Ratings
REPUBLIC OF ITALY: Egan-Jones Withdraws BB+ Senior Unsecured Rating
TELECOM ITALIA: Egan-Jones Retains B Senior Unsecured Ratings
N E T H E R L A N D S
BARENTZ MIDCO: Moody's Lowers CFR to B3, Alters Outlook to Stable
COMPACT BIDCO: S&P Withdraws 'SD' Issuer Credit Rating
R U S S I A
FERGANA REGION: S&P Affirms 'B+' ICR, Outlook Stable
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ABRA GROUP: Moody's Gives Caa1 Rating to New $510MM Sr. Sec. Notes
CROWN BRICKWORK: Verulam Advisory Named as Joint Administrators
DAVID BROWN: MB Insolvency Named as Administrators
ITICO E LIMITED: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
J D WETHERSPOON: Egan-Jones Hikes Senior Unsecured Ratings to B-
JLM GLOBAL: KRE Corporate Named as Joint Administrators
LIBERTY STEEL: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
POLOPLEX LIMITED: Lines Henry Named as Administrators
RELATE: FRP Advisory Named as Joint Administrators
SUBSEA 7: Egan-Jones Retains BB+ Senior Unsecured Ratings
TECHNIPFMC PLC: Egan-Jones Retains BB Senior Unsecured Ratings
UK LOGISTICS 2024-2: Moody's Gives Ba3 Rating to GBP48.4MM E Notes
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A Z E R B A I J A N
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AZERBAIJAN: S&P Affirms 'BB+/B' Sovereign Credit Ratings
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On Dec. 6, 2024, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB+/B' long- and
short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
Azerbaijan. The outlook is stable.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that, despite a
projected gradual decline in oil production, Azerbaijan's
significant fiscal and external buffers will help to shield the
economy against possible terms-of-trade shocks.
Downside scenario
S&P could lower the ratings if Azerbaijan's fiscal balances prove
substantially weaker than it expects over the medium term. For
example, this could occur if oil production falls faster than
expected as Azerbaijan's oil fields age.
Upside scenario
S&P could raise the ratings if Azerbaijan continues to run
recurring twin fiscal and current account surpluses and the
geopolitical risks in the region subside.
Rationale
S&P said, "Azerbaijan's strong fiscal and external stock positions
support our ratings on the sovereign. The government has
accumulated substantial liquid assets within SOFAZ, the sovereign
wealth fund. By end-2024, we forecast that the government will have
access to liquid assets valued at nearly 80% of GDP, while gross
general government debt should stabilize at a contained 20% of GDP
through 2027. Although we expect Azerbaijan to run twin fiscal and
current account surpluses during 2025-2026, these are forecast to
reduce toward balance by 2027. Our forecast is based on our
projected oil prices, which are expected to average $75/bbl from
2025."
Overall, Azerbaijan's economy is still centered around the oil and
gas sector, which accounts for close to 40% of GDP and 80% of goods
and services exports. This makes it vulnerable to any potential
adverse changes in hydrocarbon prices. In 2015, for example, a
sharp fall in oil prices caused Azerbaijan's government deficit to
deteriorate by over 7 percentage points (ppts) of GDP, its current
account to weaken by 14 ppts of GDP, and net reserves to decline by
over half. As a result, households and companies shifted savings
into dollars, and the exchange rate was devalued. In S&P's view,
although Azerbaijan has sizable buffers in the form of SOFAZ
assets, these cannot fully protect its concentrated economy from
all the consequences of a drop in key export prices, especially if
it proved to be sustained. The continued gradual decline in oil
production as key fields age exacerbates the problem.
S&P's ratings on Azerbaijan are also constrained by its weak
institutional effectiveness and still-limited monetary policy
flexibility.
Institutional and economic profile: To date, diversification away
from hydrocarbons has been limited
-- Azerbaijan's oil output shows a long-term declining trend
linked to the aging of its oil fields. Gas production is
approaching a plateau; although production had ramped up in recent
years, further increases over the next three to four years are
likely to be only marginal.
-- As Azerbaijan's growth strengthened in 2024, S&P revised the
full-year growth forecast to 4.5% to account for strong activity in
the non-oil sector (including transportation and construction).
-- S&P forecasts medium-term growth of 2% and that growth in the
non-oil sector will mitigate stagnating oil and gas output.
Azerbaijan's institutional environment remains weak and political
power is centralized around the presidential administration.
S&P said, "Azerbaijan has reported stronger economic growth in 2024
than we expected at the start of the year. During January-October,
output in real terms expanded by 4.9%; consequently, we revised our
full-year forecast to 4.5% from the 2.5% we projected six months
ago. The non-oil sector has been the engine of this stronger
outturn and by Oct. 31, 2024, had grown by 6.8% since the beginning
of the year. Stronger performance in cargo and passenger
transportation, information and communication services, and retail
trade turnover have all contributed to this outcome. We also note
brisk dynamics in the construction sector, reflecting the
investments made by the authorities in the Karabakh region. Over
the medium term, we anticipate that the non-oil sector will grow by
3%-4% a year. In our view, faster growth will likely be hampered by
limited structural reforms or sustained efforts to foster economic
diversification."
By contrast, the dynamic in Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon sector has
been much more muted in real terms in 2022-2023 and in 2024. The
hydrocarbon sector currently accounts for about 40% of Azerbaijan's
nominal GDP and output from the key oil sector continued to fall in
2024. S&P forecasts that output from the hydrocarbon sector will
stagnate from 2025 on, based on its expectations that:
-- Oil output (including natural-gas condensate) will continue to
average 0.58 million bbl per day (mbpd) through 2027. Production
has been steadily declining in recent years, falling to 0.65 mbpd
in 2023 from 0.79 mbpd in 2019 with the aging of key oil fields
such as Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli. S&P estimates that production this
year will average 0.58 mbpd and that the next few years will see
some stabilization as the continued decline of some fields is
offset by small capacity additions at others. Foreign oil majors
operating in Azerbaijan are likely to undertake additional
investments to slow the decline. In the longer term, however,
production will likely continue falling.
-- Gas production stabilizing at close to 36 billion-37 billion
cubic meters (bcm) a year. Azerbaijan's gas output has grown
substantially since 2018, when production commenced at the Shah
Deniz II gas field, and reached a plateau of about 16 bcm. The
Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (which carries gas to Turkiye)
became operational in 2019 and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline
(carrying gas to Europe) became operational in 2020. In July 2023,
the smaller Absheron gas and condensate field commenced production
of about 1.5 bcm. It is operated jointly by TotalEnergies and State
Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). Overall, S&P
estimates that Azerbaijan is close to peak gas production and will
maintain it at this level for several years.
There are several projects that could further expand gas production
over the longer term, beyond our forecast horizon. These include:
-- The next phase of the Absheron field (expanding production from
1.5 bcm a year to 5.0 bcm);
-- Exploring the possibility of extracting gas from underneath the
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oilfield. The scale of potential
production from deep gas development at the currently producing
oilfield is not yet clear; and
-- Development of the Umid, Babek, and Karabakh gas fields.
These projects are in the planning stage and would take several
years to commence production, assuming that the decision is made to
proceed in each case. In addition, the South Caucasus Pipeline, a
key export route, is operating at close to full capacity. Any
additional net gas exports, including to Europe, would require
further expansion of the pipeline infrastructure. Such an expansion
would therefore depend on agreements between Azerbaijan and the key
European buyers of its gas regarding the long-term volume and
pricing of the gas supplied.
Beyond oil and gas, Azerbaijani authorities' plans in the energy
sector include developing renewable sources. In particular, there
are plans to tap into the country's solar, wind, and hydropower
potential. Work continues on a project to lay a new east-west
electricity cable in the Black Sea that would allow green
electricity exports from the Caspian Sea region to Hungary and
Romania. Additional renewables generation capacity in Azerbaijan
could also replace a proportion of the domestic electricity
currently generated by gas, which could enable additional gas
volumes to be exported to Europe, assuming the export pipeline
capacity is expanded.
In November 2024, Azerbaijan hosted the 2024 UN Climate Conference
(COP29), at which SOCAR Green (the renewable energy arm of SOCAR)
and United Arab Emirates-based Masdar signed financing agreements
worth US$670 million with several international financial
institutions for 760 megawatt-hours of new solar generation
capacity in Azerbaijan.
S&P said, "In our view, the economic success and fiscal impact of
the new renewables projects will largely depend on future domestic
electricity prices in Europe. We consider that any economic and
budgetary benefits of the new projects are likely to materialize
well outside our four-year forecast horizon.
"We consider Azerbaijan's wider institutional settings to be
comparatively weak, despite prudent fiscal policy choices to save
the windfall profits from the hydrocarbon sector as a future safety
buffer. Political power in Azerbaijan remains concentrated with the
president and his administration, and there are limited checks and
balances. Ilham Aliyev, the current president, has been in power
since 2003 when he succeeded his father, Heydar Aliyev. In February
2024, Azerbaijan held a snap presidential election, followed by an
early September 2024 parliamentary election. The president and
pro-president parties won both elections comfortably, with no
meaningful opposition, and we do not expect significant policy
shifts in the aftermath."
Azerbaijan and Armenia have yet to reach a comprehensive peace
deal, although earlier in the year there were some indications that
they could finally agree, following a string of delays. After a
one-day military offensive in September 2023, Azerbaijan gained
control over the parts of the long-disputed Karabakh territory it
did not seize in September-November 2020. The Karabakh region has
been at the crux of a dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia for
decades and was the trigger for a war in the 1990s and in 2020.
Following the brief September 2023 escalation, the local Armenian
authorities in Karabakh surrendered and a ceasefire promptly
ensued, followed by an agreement to transfer the region to full
Azerbaijani control. The development led to a mass and swift
departure of ethnic Armenians to Armenia from Karabakh.
S&P said, "We understand that several points of contention between
Azerbaijan and Armenia remain, and that these appear to be
preventing the conclusion of a peace deal. One involves the
Azerbaijani demand for Armenia to change its constitution and
formally relinquish any future claims on Karabakh--this remains a
difficult domestic political topic in Armenia. We understand that
Azerbaijan is also promoting the establishment of road and rail
links between mainland Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhichevan (the
"Zangezour corridor"). Specifically, Azerbaijan is demanding that
the connection be exempt from any Armenian customs controls; so
far, Armenia has not been willing to accept this. Although we do
not expect a renewal of the fighting between the two countries, if
a diplomatic solution is not found then we see a risk that the
conflict could flare up again. Such a scenario would carry
substantial social and economic risks for both Azerbaijan and
Armenia."
Flexibility and performance profile: Sizable fiscal and external
net asset positions
-- S&P forecasts that Azerbaijan will retain twin fiscal and
current account surpluses over 2024-2026, but that these will
gradually reduce to balance by 2027.
-- Azerbaijan will also retain an average general government net
asset position of around 50% of GDP through 2027.
-- Monetary policy effectiveness remains limited, constrained by
the central bank's limited operational independence, heavy
intervention in the foreign exchange market, and underdeveloped
local currency capital markets.
S&P said, "We consider that Azerbaijan's strong external stock
position will remain a core rating strength, reinforced by the
substantial foreign assets accumulated at SOFAZ. We estimate that
external liquid assets will surpass external debt through 2027 and
the net international investment position will average 70% of GDP
in 2024-2027. Although Azerbaijan remains vulnerable to potential
terms-of-trade volatility, we consider that its large net external
asset position will serve as a buffer that could mitigate the
potential adverse effects of economic cycles on domestic economic
development. Our forecast indicates that Azerbaijan's current
account will remain in surplus over 2024-2026, but will gradually
reduce to balance by 2027. Similarly, we forecast that general
government fiscal surpluses will average 1.8% of GDP over 2024-2027
and will also trend toward balance, as expenditure increases while
oil production gradually declines.
"Based on the high frequency fiscal data available for
January-October, when Azerbaijan recorded a surplus of about 9% of
GDP, we forecast a general government surplus of 5.4% of GDP for
2024. We expect spending to pick up toward the end of the year, in
line with the usual pattern, which will reduce the surplus.
Nevertheless, we still anticipate that Azerbaijan will record a
strong positive outturn this year. A noteworthy element of this
strong headline fiscal outcome in both 2024 and 2023 was the
favorable income and asset management return on SOFAZ's asset
portfolio.
"Despite the rapid increase in natural gas production volumes over
2018-2021, we expect the related fiscal receipts for the government
will remain markedly lower than those from oil. For instance, even
though spot prices for gas in Europe have been much higher recently
compared with historical averages, the proceeds from the Shah Deniz
gas sales that were transferred to SOFAZ over 2023 amounted to
about $1.3 billion. By comparison, oil sales from the ACG field
generated almost $7 billion.
"Azerbaijan's net fiscal asset position remains strong, mirroring
its external position and supporting the sovereign ratings. We
expect that the net general government asset position will remain
about 50% of GDP through 2027. In calculating net general
government debt, we include our estimate of SOFAZ's external liquid
assets. We exclude less-liquid exposures, which were equivalent to
about 14% of GDP in 2023. These included the fund's domestic
investments and certain equity exposures abroad. In our view, these
could take a longer time to liquidate if needed."
Azerbaijan is far more transparent than many of its peers (such as
those in the Gulf Cooperation Council) about the composition of its
assets and size of the sovereign wealth fund. For example, SOFAZ
publishes detailed audited annual reports with granular information
on the categories of investments it holds.
The government owns a majority stake in International Bank of
Azerbaijan (IBA). In 2017, the government restructured the bank and
assumed some of its debt. The government has also transferred IBA's
nonperforming loans--which had a book value of about Azerbaijani
manat (AZN) 10 billion--to AqrarKredit, a state-owned nonbanking
credit organization funded by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan
(CBAR). There is a government guarantee on the loans provided to
AqrarKredit by CBAR. S&P therefore includes AqrarKredit's
sovereign-guaranteed loans of AZN9.5 billion in its general
government debt calculations.
Excluding AqrarKredit's guaranteed debt, Azerbaijan's direct gross
government debt is low, projected at 13% of GDP by the end of 2024.
Of this, about 45% is domestic debt, denominated in local
currency--the rest represents external foreign currency-denominated
debt, the majority of which is to bilateral and multilateral
creditors. Foreign commercial debt is limited to two outstanding
Eurobonds: one of $310.7 million, maturing in 2029 and one of $1.08
billion, maturing in 2032.
S&P said, "We forecast that Azerbaijan will retain the manat's peg
to the U.S. dollar at AZN1.7 to $1.0, supported by the authorities'
regular interventions in the foreign-currency market. Nevertheless,
if hydrocarbon prices drop sharply and remain low for a prolonged
period, we assume the authorities would consider adjusting the
exchange rate to protect CBAR foreign currency reserves from a
significant decline, like the one that happened in 2015.
"Fixing the manat exchange rate to the U.S. dollar offers greater
predictability but deprives CBAR of the ability to conduct an
independent monetary policy. In addition, we consider monetary
policy to be curtailed by the bank's still-limited operational
independence. Domestic deposit dollarization had declined to 34% as
of October 2024, from 55% before the pandemic. We attribute the
improved attractiveness of savings in manat to the significantly
higher average interest rate on national currency deposits (8.7%,
compared with 2.9% for foreign currency deposits), combined with
the stable exchange rate and favorable, above-budgeted oil prices.
That said, if pressure on the manat exchange rate were to build, we
believe that domestic residents could quickly redollarize to hedge
their inflation and foreign exchange risks."
In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Ratings Score Snapshot above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed
Azerbaijan
Sovereign Credit Rating BB+/Stable/B
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB+
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B E L G I U M
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ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV: Egan-Jones Retains BB+ Sr. Unsecured Ratings
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Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 8, 2024, maintained its
'BB+' foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings
on debt issued by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV. EJR also withdrew the
rating on commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Leuven, Belgium, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV brews
beer.
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B U L G A R I A
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HUVEPHARMA EOOD: S&P Raises ICR to 'BB+' on Sustained Deleveraging
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S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on
animal health company Huvepharma EOOD (Huvepharma) to 'BB+' from
'BB' and revised the outlook to stable.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the
group will continue to benefit from strong momentum in the poultry
segment and a solid product portfolio. Under our base case we
forecast the company to maintain debt to EBITDA of 2.6x-2.8x over
the next 12 months, thanks to positive free operating cash flow
(FOCF) of EUR40 million-EUR60 million.
"The rating action reflects our expectation that this year's
deleveraging trend, with adjusted debt to EBITDA below 3.0x, will
continue into 2025. We expect Huvepharma's adjusted debt to EBITDA
will decline to 2.6x-2.8x in 2024 and 2.4x-2.6x in 2025 on the back
of robust like-for-like sales growth of 8.0%-10%, expanding EBITDA
margins to 24%-26% (from 22.3% in 2023), and reduced working
capital and capex investments. On an organic basis (excluding the
impact from foreign exchange effects and the sale of the Italian
subsidiary), the company's net revenues are growing by about 8%-10%
in 2024, underpinned by robust demand for its products. We
anticipate a stronger topline growth in 2025 following the opening
of new subsidiaries in Indonesia, Philippines, and Australia,
further supported by resilient demand for the company's portfolio,
additional product launches, and new contracts signed in key
emerging markets, especially Latin America and the Middle East. The
company's growth strategy focuses on a handful of products,
including feed additives Monimax, Monovet, and Optiphos Plus.
Vaccines (currently about 5% of total sales) is an area of growth,
especially in North America and Europe, where the company enjoys an
enhanced industrial footprint. Demand in the key poultry meat end
market (about 50%-55% of Huvepharma's business) overall supports
growth prospects. We forecast the company's profitability will
continue to expand to 24%-26% on the back of its improving product
mix, increasing sales of high-margin products, and sustained
declines in the cost of key raw materials, energy, and freight. An
increasing share of the energy consumed (about 25%) comes from
in-house renewable sources, and the company aims to be fully
autonomous by 2030. We forecast annual capex spend of EUR70
million-EUR80 million over 2024 and 2025, notably linked to
decarbonization projects at its European plants. In our view, solid
topline growth, profitability gains, and limited capital projects
should support deleveraging and bring adjusted debt to EBITDA to
2.6x-2.8x in 2024 and 2.4x-2.6x in 2025.
The group's improved credit metrics since 2022's profitability dip
are due to good underlying end-market growth and reducing input
cost inflation. Huvepharma's attractive product offering, vertical
integration, and lower capital needs, combined with easing cost
pressures, have supported the company's deleveraging despite market
headwinds in the animal health sector. Over the past two years, the
sector has faced headwinds stemming from higher input costs, supply
chain disruptions, animal disease outbreaks, as well as more
stringent antibiotic regulations. Huvepharma has navigated these
challenges and continues to reduce leverage thanks to resilient
demand for its products, in-house production capabilities, and
limited capital investments. Over the period, sales growth has
primarily come from selective price increases and market share
gains in higher-margin products. These include Monovet for
increased cattle feed efficiency in the U.S., and Monimax for
poultry coccidiosis treatment in Europe, alongside robust demand
for enzymes, vaccines, antiparasitic, and human health active
pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The company has rapidly
recovered EBITDA margins toward 24%-26% thanks to sustained price
declines in key production inputs, especially soybeans, along with
lower energy and transportation costs. Moreover, Huvepharma
benefits from a balanced and highly integrated manufacturing
footprint, which limits the company's reliance on international
suppliers and ensured adequate inventory levels despite global
supply chain disruptions. The company has the largest fermentation
capacity in Europe and satisfies 90% of its APIs consumption
needs.
S&P said, "We think Huvepharma is well positioned to capitalize on
growth opportunities in the main poultry segment while managing
headwinds in certain product areas, particularly antibiotics in
regulated markets such as Europe. Poultry, which represents 50%-55%
of Huvepharma's revenue base, remains more affordable than other
types of meat and even more so than plant-based food alternatives,
which are experiencing decreased demand. In our view, Huvepharma's
global leading position in the poultry market, constant product
innovation, and existing manufacturing capabilities, strengthened
by EUR650 million strategically deployed capital expenditure
(capex) and selective acquisitions undertaken over the past five
years, will allow it to capitalize on increasing demand driven by
socioeconomic tailwinds, especially in emerging markets. Huvepharma
is facing growing regulatory pressure regarding the widespread use
of antibiotics (approximately 25% of financial year 2023 total
sales). This is contracting market growth in some of its key
geographies, particularly in Europe. However, we understand
continuous demand for responsible antibiotic use, market share
gains as more industry players leave the segment, and greater
portfolio diversification into fast-growing areas such as vaccines
should cushion Huvepharma's growth trajectory despite declining
antibiotic sales.
"We also think the company will stay committed to its financial
policy target, limiting discretionary spending, and remaining
disciplined with shareholder remuneration, which has historically
shown episodes of unpredictability. In our view, Huvepharma's
dividend distributions have at times being erratic and shown some
degree of unpredictability, with notable year-on-year variations.
The company distributed EUR46 million to its shareholders in 2024,
EUR11 million in 2022, and EUR60 million in 2021. Considering our
expectations of positive free cash generation of EUR50-EUR70
million for the next 24 month, we conservatively assume about
EUR30-EUR50 million of annual dividend payments. We understand the
company will remain disciplined in achieving its deleveraging
target of 2.0x debt to EBITDA and will limit cash distributions in
periods of softer market performance to maintain this path. In our
analysis, we also factor in the relatively low risk of large-scale
mergers and acquisitions since the sector has not seen material
activity in recent years and the company has historically focused
on bolt-on transactions. We also expect capital projects to remain
limited and mainly tied to increasing the company's renewable
energy generation capacity. The large-scale capex program, which
includes several vaccine production plants in Europe and the U.S.,
and hindered deleveraging prospects in recent years, is already
complete.
"The stable outlook reflects our view that the company will
demonstrate strong revenue growth while progressively improving its
EBITDA margin. This should translate into adjusted debt to EBITDA
decreasing sustainably below 3.0x from year-end 2024. The stable
outlook also reflects our assumption of positive FOCF of about
EUR50-EUR70 million annually in 2024 and 2025, and a disciplined
financial policy in the future. We also anticipate the EBITDA
margin to increase to about 24%-26% over the next 24 months.
"We would downgrade Huvepharma if its operating performance
deteriorates over the coming months, such that debt to EBITDA
remains above 3.0x sustainably and the company fails to report
significant FOCF. This could occur due to a surge in competition,
delays in obtaining approvals for new product launches, additional
regulatory restrictions, or deviation from the current financial
policy.
"We could consider raising the ratings on Huvepharma if the company
exhibits faster-than-expected deleveraging with adjusted debt to
EBITDA falling below 2.0x, with significant headroom to absorb
further market volatility while generating significant FOCF. This
would likely occur if the company's market share in the key poultry
segment strengthened materially. Under such a scenario, an upgrade
is also contingent on a clear financial policy commitment to
maintain metrics at these levels on a sustained basis."
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F I N L A N D
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AMER SPORTS: Moody's Upgrades CFR to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable
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Moody's Ratings upgraded Amer Sports, Inc.'s ("Amer Sports")
Corporate Family Rating to Ba3 from B1 and Probability of Default
Rating to Ba3-PD from B1-PD. Moody's also upgraded the rating on
Amer Sports Corporation's EUR700 million backed senior secured term
loan (TL) due February 2031 to Ba3 from B1, and upgraded the
ratings on Amer Sports Company's $500 million backed senior secured
term loan and $800 million backed senior secured notes, both due
February 2031, to Ba3 from B1. Moody's also upgraded the rating on
the $710 million backed senior secured revolving credit facility
(RCF) due February 2029 borrowed by Amer Sports Corporation and
Amer Sports Company to Ba3 from B1. Moody's also assigned a SGL-2
speculative grade liquidity rating to Amer Sports, Inc. The
outlooks for Amer Sports, Inc., Amer Sports Corporation and Amer
Sports Company were changed to stable from positive.
The upgrade of the CFR reflects that leverage and free cash flow
will meaningfully improve following Amer Sports' public second
share offering and expected debt repayment. Amer Sports is issuing
up to 40.8 million shares at $23 with an underwriters option to
issue an additional 6.12 million share within 30 days. Net proceeds
after fees of roughly $900 million, potentially increasing to
roughly $1.3 billion, will go towards repaying the $425 million
outstanding on the USD term loan and a portion of the $476 million
equivalent outstanding on the Euro term loan. Moody's expect pro
forma debt-to-EBITDA will decline to 3.2x from 4.7x as of the 12
months ended September 30, 2024 with the debt repayment reducing
interest expense by roughly $60 million annually. Leverage could
decline to 3.0x if additional shares are sold at the underwriters
option and used for additional debt repayment. The reduction in
debt and interest expense provide greater flexibility to manage
downturns in demand and the risks associated with the highly
competitive and discretionary end-market in outdoor recreation
durables and apparel. This flexibility is important because of the
fashion-sensitive risks inherent in the apparel and footwear
segments. The willingness to issue equity to repay debt and the
company's low leverage target are positive governance developments
that is a key factor in the rating action. This results in an
improvement in the financial strategy and risk management score to
3 from 4, the governance issuer profile score to G-3 from G-4 and
the credit impact score to CIS-3 from CIS-4. The company's
distribution, product development and marketing are driving good
growth in Arc'teryx apparel and Salomon footwear, but consumer
preferences can shift rapidly. The improvement in credit metrics
also position the company to better withstand execution risk that
it faces from its large capital outlays to support growth of its
retail footprint and technology infrastructure improvements.
Moody's changed the company's primary industry methodology to
Retail and Apparel from Consumer Durables to reflect the rapidly
growing and now majority share of revenue and earnings derived from
apparel and footwear primarily driven by expansion of Arc'teryx and
Salomon branded products.
Moody's expect to withdraw the rating on the company's USD term
loan if the instrument is repaid.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Amer Sports, Inc.'s Ba3 CFR reflects its large scale and leading
market positions across outdoor apparel and key outdoor recreation
equipment categories. The company continues to expand distribution
of its strong portfolio of globally recognized brands including
through new retail store openings, which along with same store
sales growth is driving good earnings growth. Brand diversification
across outdoor and sport categories and geographies help to
partially mitigate the effects on overall results of changes in
consumer trends or region specific economic declines. The continued
consumer focus on health and wellness and active lifestyle along
with the distribution gains from company's expanding
direct-to-consumer ("D2C") channel in China and the US support
continued revenue growth. The consolidated EBITDA margin is also
benefiting from continued expansion of the higher margin technical
outdoor business.
Credit risks stem from the company's exposure to discretionary
consumer spending and sensitivity to changing consumer preferences
given the reliance on highly competitive and fashion-sensitive
apparel and footwear markets. The technical nature of the company's
product portfolio garners greater stickiness than pure fashion
focused products but nevertheless there is meaningful fashion risk
to earnings particularly as consumer preferences evolve and
considering the increasing mass appeal of technical apparel outside
of outdoor enthusiasts and the competitive nature of the market.
The highly competitive market requires Amer Sports to continue
effective investment and innovation to maintain its market
position. Outsourcing of production including from overseas
suppliers also presents risks of supply chain disruptions or
developments such as tariff increases. Moody's expect negative free
cash flow (FCF) to turn positive and improve over the next 12-18
months, but the continued focus on growth and need for capital
spending to support the direct to consumer and brand expansion
create execution risk. The company's ownership structure presents
governance concerns due to concentrated control with ANTA Sports
owning 43% of shares outstanding and other private investors owning
38.5% of shares outstanding pro forma post-offering. ANTA has the
right to nominate 5 board of directors as long as its ownership
remains above 30% of outstanding shares. Moody's believe the
ownership structure creates risk of actions that favor shareholders
over lenders.
Nevertheless, Moody's expect financial policy will remain
supportive of credit metrics and improved financial position
following the proposed share offering and expected debt repayment.
Amer Sports' publicly stated net leverage target of 1.5x or better
indicates a continued focus on reducing leverage from the 1.8x pro
forma level following the share offering and indicates continued
focus on deleveraging over the next year, most likely through
continued earnings growth.
Liquidity is good as indicated by the company's SGL-2 speculative
grade liquidity rating. Balance sheet cash of $312 million and
access to the company's $710 million revolver, of which $129
million is drawn, provide ample cushion to support highly seasonal
cash needs. Moody's project Moody's adjusted free cash flow will be
approximately negative $130 million in 2024 due to increased
investment in retail expansion and technology infrastructure but
anticipate free cash flow turning modestly positive in 2025 in part
due to the reduction in cash interest expense, with further
improvements expected thereafter. Amer Sports experiences
significant EBITDA and working capital seasonality, particularly in
the second and third quarters, requiring substantial working
capital investment. The company is able to manage these working
capital fluctuations and partially offset the negative free cash
flow through the strategic use of its large revolver.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Amer Sports'
strong earnings and operating performance will continue to benefit
from a growing retail network and high level of consumer engagement
with the company's brands. Moody's expect leverage will continue to
decline over the next 12-to-18 months. Negative free cash flow and
the company's sizable capital expenditure needs to facilitate
network expansion and brand growth remains a key risk particularly
given the highly seasonal working capital and considering the
highly competitive and discretionary end-markets in which the
company competes.
The rating could be upgraded if the company is able to sustain good
operating execution, organic revenue and EBITDA growth such that
free cash flow is sustained at a comfortably positive and strong
level while maintaining debt-to-EBITDA leverage at or below 3.0x.
An upgrade would also require the company to maintain financial
policies that support these credit metrics.
The rating could be downgraded if Amer Sports' operating
performance deteriorates as a result of weaker consumer spending,
increase in competition, or a shift in consumer sentiment away from
the company's fashion exposed brands. Debt/EBITDA sustained above
4.0x, a decline in the EBIT margin towards a mid-to-high
single-digit percentage range, or deterioration in liquidity could
also lead to a downgrade.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail and
Apparel published in November 2023.
Amer Sports, Inc. is a global sporting goods company, with sales in
more than 100 countries across EMEA, the Americas and APAC. Focused
on outdoor sports, its product offering includes technical apparel,
footwear, winter sports equipment and other sports accessories.
Amer Sports owns a portfolio of globally recognized brands such as
Arc'teryx and Salomon (apparel and footwear, respectively), Wilson
(individual and team ball sports), Peak Performance (apparel) and
Atomic (winter sports equipment), encompassing a broad range of
sports, including Alpine skiing, running, tennis, baseball,
American football, hiking and golf. The company went public in
February of 2024 with ANTA Sports retaining a 43% ownership
position. Amer Sports generated $4.8 billion of sales for the last
12 months ended September 2024.
===========
F R A N C E
===========
EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Ratings to BB
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 12, 2024, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Eutelsat Communications to BB from BB+. EJR also
withdrew the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Paris, France, Eutelsat Communications own and
operates satellites.
KERSIA INTERNATIONAL: S&P Raises ICR to 'B', Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on
French food safety specialist Kersia International to 'B' from 'B-'
and our issue rating on the EUR540 million TLB (after the proposed
EUR100 million add-on) to 'B' from 'B-', with the recovery rating
unchanged at '3' (rounded recovery estimate: 50%).
The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that Kersia will sustain a
good operating performance over the next 12-18 months, reflected by
an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 17%-19%, thanks to better
product mix and operating efficiency, and by a positive FOCF
cushion.
S&P said, "Our upgrade reflects Kersia's faster-than-expected
deleveraging in 2024 owing to a robust operating performance . Over
the first nine months of 2024, Kersia reported a net turnover of
EUR403.7 million, up +2.8% compared with 2023, supported by a
volume uptick in the Farm and Food & Beverage segments coming from
higher activity with historical customers and new customer wins
thanks to outreach in 2023. Also, the company managed to maintain
efficient price positioning over the period despite some price
decreases. As a result, Kersia's reported EBITDA for the first nine
months of 2024 reached about EUR93.5 million, representing a 35.7%
increase over 2023. Higher EBITDA generation stemmed from continued
sales growth and continued low raw material prices. This, alongside
with company's strategic shift toward better product mix and
operating efficiency measures, should result, in our view, in
revenue of EUR610 million–EUR620 million in 2024 with S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of EUR100 million-EUR110 million. S&P said,
"Compared with management's expectation of EBITDA landing at about
EUR120 million by the year-end, in our forecast, we deducted EUR3
million of research and development capitalized costs and about
EUR10 million of restructuring expense. We anticipate Kersia's FOCF
will remain positive at about EUR20 million-EUR30 million in 2024.
As a result, we now project adjusted debt to EBITDA will decrease
to about 6.5x-7.0x in 2024, from 10.9x in 2023. The debt
deleveraging comes from a combination of EBITDA growth and slight
debt reduction through partial repayment of the PIK instrument over
the year."
Kersia's proposed transaction will slightly increase leverage by
year-end 2025 but we still anticipate it will remain below 7x,
reflecting our expectations of higher revenue and EBITDA . Kersia
seeks to raise an additional EUR100 million on its euro-denominated
TLB and to upsize its RCF to EUR120 million (from EUR100 million
currently). Alongside some cash from the balance sheet, Kersia
intends to use the proceeds of the incremental debt to finance two
strategic bolt-on acquisitions, fully repay its EUR20 million RCF
drawing, and repay a portion of its outstanding PIK instrument.
S&P said, "The transaction increases our forecast S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA for 2025 compared with 2024, given
that our forecasts reflect a higher debt quantum. However, we
assume this ratio will remain below 7x because the company will use
part of its proceeds to repay the current drawn amount of the RCF
and about EUR20 million of its PIK instrument, which should limit
debt increase. Additionally, Kersia will also use the proceeds to
acquire two strategic assets in Latin America and Eastern Europe
from which we expect revenue contribution from 2025.
"Thanks to a good track record in integrating acquisitions and
business rationale aligned with management's strategic plan, we
believe Kersia will be able to capitalize on its two new assets.
Over the last several years, Kersia acquired several strategic
assets, such as Klenzan in China, to enhance its portfolio of
customers and geographic presence. This has resulted in a growing
revenue base. We view positively the company's ability to quickly
integrate acquisitions and to develop partnerships that contribute
to Kersia's further development. As a result, multiples have
improved historically by an average of 1x-2x on synergies from
bolt-on acquisitions, with organic growth of 7.5% over 2015-2023.
We see the two proposed assets as complementary to Kersia's current
portfolio because they will enable Kersia to penetrate new markets
or strengthen its positioning (Latin America, Southern U.S., and
Eastern Europe) and capitalize on cross-selling to further expand
activities. The group will acquire a portion of target activities
and we view positively that the former management will remain and
work jointly to expand activities. Lastly, we anticipate that the
group will work on optimizing operations focusing on efficient cost
management, software standardization, and salesforce enhancement to
enable fast integration.
"We forecast that Kersia will gradually achieve a stronger S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin of about 18%-19% in both 2025
and 2026, thanks to favorable product mix and efficient cost
management. Those metrics are higher than the 11.5% achieved in
2023 and our expectations for 2024. Profitability gains will come,
in our view, from higher volume growth prospects supported by
current market trends with higher activity from historical clients,
customers wins, and cross-selling from acquisitions. We also think
that the group's recent discontinuation of low-margin contracts
should contribute to better operating performance. Our forecast is
also supported by the sustained level of customer prices. We do not
anticipate Kersia will decrease customer prices or lose customers
because safety solutions represent a low cost for the end customer
(1% of product costs for food and beverage companies and 4% for the
farming segment). Additionally, we anticipate continued low levels
of material costs. In our view, Kersia can now manage volatile
input costs in raw materials thanks to several software
applications implemented and a change in product composition to
rely on less volatile commodities.
"We expect FOCF to be positive in 2024 and to grow further to EUR45
million-EUR55 million in 2025 . In our view, Kersia's improving
EBITDA base will enable the group to post FOCF of EUR20
million-EUR30 million in 2024, underlying normalization of working
capital after 2023 working capital outflows due to cost inflation
in certain raw materials and the overstocking of inventory. We
anticipate also higher capital expenditure (capex) levels in 2024
at about EUR43 million to support some manufacturing footprint
optimization. We anticipate a normalization of capex, mostly for
maintenance purposes."
Stronger credit metrics and positive FOCF over the next 12-18
months should reduce leverage to a sustainable level . S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA dropped to 10.9x in 2023 from above
13.0x in 2022 and is anticipated to decrease toward 6.5x-7.0x over
the next 12-18 months, with the forecast EBITDA growth largely
offsetting the increase in debt levels. Furthermore, FFO cash
interest coverage is expected to increase to around 3.0x over the
next 12-18 months. The positive development in credit metrics will
be supported by the expected partial repayment of the PIK
instrument and the EUR20 million drawn on the RCF, as well as
significant improvement in performance.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that, over the next 12-18
months, Kersia's credit metrics and FOCF will continue to improve
thanks to ongoing profitable growth.
The group's operating performance should be supported by sales
growth stemming from higher volumes, maintained price levels, and
contribution from acquisitions from 2025. S&P also forecasts S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin strengthening to about
17%-19% by the end of 2025 thanks to better product mix and
operating efficiency.
S&P anticipates adjusted debt leverage to remain at 6.5x-7.0x,
adjusted FFO cash interest of around 3.0x, and positive FOCF for
the next 12-18 months.
S&P would lower the rating over the next 12 months if:
-- An unexpected acquisition pushes S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
debt to EBITDA materially above 7x on a sustained basis;
-- Revenue growth and profitability are materially lower than
expected, deviating the company from its deleveraging trajectory;
Kersia's liquidity deteriorated materially; or
-- FFO cash interest coverage declined toward 2x.
External growth could be the major reason for deviation of the
financial metrics. This could happen in the case of
lower-than-expected growth in key segments combined with
deteriorating profitability of integrating recent acquisitions.
S&P could take a positive rating action if Kersia's credit metrics
improve such that the adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains
comfortably below 5x, alongside a clear financial policy commitment
to maintain the leverage at this level. A positive rating action
would also depend on the group's ability to continuously sustain
robust FOCF.
LAGARDERE SA: Egan-Jones Retains B Senior Unsecured Ratings
-----------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 4, 2024, maintained its 'B'
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Lagardere SA. EJR also withdrew the rating on
commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Paris, France, Lagardere SA operates as a
publishing company.
SEINE FINANCE: Moody's Hikes CFR to B2, Alters Outlook to Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings upgraded Seine Finance Sarl (Silae or the company)
long term corporate family rating to B2 from B3 and the probability
of default rating to B2-PD from B3-PD. Concurrently, Moody's
upgraded to B2 from B3 the ratings of the EUR400 million senior
secured term loan B borrowed by Seine Finance Sarl. Concurrently,
Moody's upgraded to B2 from B3 the EUR250 million senior secured
term loan B and the EUR85 million senior secured revolving credit
facility (RCF) borrowed by Seine HoldCo SAS. The outlook on both
entities changed to stable from positive.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is based on:
-- Silae's strong operating performance in the first nine months
of September 2024, which led to credit metrics aligning with
Moody's expectations for the B2 rating level. For instance, Moody's
estimate Moody's-adjusted Debt /EBITDA of 4.7x Moody's adjusted
free cash flow (FCF) to debt of around 10% as of the last twelve
months ended September 2024.
-- Moody's expectation of continued earnings growth driven by
volume growth, as well as through an addition of complementary HR
products to Silae's core payroll offering, reflected in growing
average revenue per payslip, and strict cost control. The forecast
organic EBITDA growth would further improve credit metrics absent
material debt-funded acquisitions or distributions.
-- While Moody's expect operating performance to improve over the
next 12-18 months, financial policy decisions like debt-funded
distributions or acquisitions could impact debt metrics. After the
EUR400 million debt addition for dividend distribution in Q4 2023,
the B2 rating does not factor in another significant debt-funded
dividend distribution in the next 12-18 months. Moody's expect the
company to remain acquisitive, potentially using around EUR100
million in cash on hand as of September 2024 and positive FCF for
acquisitions.
The B2 CFR also reflects Silae's relatively small revenue base
(EUR201 million of revenue as of LTM Sep-24), high geographic
concentration in France, limited diversification, from a product
line and distribution channel standpoint, although there has been
an improvement since the buyout by Silver Lake Partners in 2020,
reflected in growing revenue from HR modules (notably on e-vault in
2024); and an event risk of debt-funded shareholder distributions
or acquisitions.
Concurrently, the company's position as one of the leading French
human capital management (HCM) software providers targeting
currently mainly small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); good
revenue visibility, given the recurring nature of
software-as-a-service (SaaS) fees and the compulsory nature of
monthly payroll; best-in-class EBITDA margins; and good liquidity,
all support the rating.
OUTLOOK
Silae's stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the
company's credit metrics will remain commensurate with the B2
rating expectations over the next 12 to 18 months. The outlook
incorporates Moody's assumption that there will be no significant
increase in leverage from any future debt-funded acquisitions or
shareholder distributions which lead to deterioration of Moody's
adjusted Debt/EBITDA above 5.5x, and that the company will maintain
good liquidity.
LIQUIDITY
Silae has good liquidity, supported by EUR100 million of cash
available on balance sheet as of September 30, 2024. Silae's
liquidity is also supported by the fully undrawn EUR85 million RCF
and Moody's expectation of positive FCF of at least EUR80 million
over the next 12-18 months. The RCF is subject to a springing
financial covenant, which requires net secured leverage to remain
below 8.5x and is tested if the RCF (net of cash) is drawn by more
than 40%. Moody's do not expect the covenant to apply but estimates
good cushion.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The company's capital structure consists of a EUR85 million senior
secured RCF and a EUR250 million senior secured term loan B, both
borrowed by Seine HoldCo SAS, and a EUR400 million senior secured
term loan B, borrowed by Seine Finance Sarl. The senior secured
term loan B and the senior secured RCF are all rated B2, in line
with the CFR, as they are the only financial debt instruments in
the capital structure of these two entities and they all rank pari
passu.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive rating pressure could develop should Silae (1) continue to
grow in size by delivering solid organic revenue and EBITDA growth,
while improves its geographic, product line, and distribution
channel diversification, thereby reducing its vulnerability to
local economic events or changes in preferences, or regulations;
and (2) Moody's-adjusted leverage is well below 4.0x on a sustained
basis, and (3) Moody's-adjusted FCF to debt well above 10% and
(EBITDA-capex)/Interest towards 3.0x on sustained basis, while
maintaining a good liquidity profile. Additionally, financial
policy including established track record of improved credit
metrics is an important consideration.
Conversely, Silae's ratings could come under negative pressure if
(1) its revenue and EBITDA growth weakens materially, possibly as a
result of subdued operating performance or increased competition;
or (2) Moody's-adjusted leverage rises above 5.5x on a sustained
basis or Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt deteriorates towards low-single
digits or Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA less capex) / interest falls
below 2.0x, possibly due to a significant debt-funded acquisition
or shareholder-friendly action; or (3) the company's liquidity
becomes weak.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Software
published in June 2022.
COMPANY PROFILE
Seine Finance Sarl is the holding company of the group which
controls Silae, a French provider of cloud-enabled payroll software
mainly for SMEs, which was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in
Aix-en-Provence. Silae's main product is Silaexpert, a cloud-native
SaaS software, which targets SMEs that outsource their payroll
process. In the last twelve months ended September 2024, Silae
reported revenue of EUR201 million, as per unaudited management
accounts. Silae has been controlled by Silver Lake since 2020.
=============
I R E L A N D
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FINANCE IRELAND NO. 5: S&P Raises Cl. E-Dfrd Notes Rating to 'BB+'
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its credit ratings on Finance Ireland
RMBS No. 5 DAC's class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, and E-Dfrd notes to
'AA+ (sf)' from 'AA (sf)', 'A+ (sf)' from 'A (sf)', 'BBB+ (sf)'
from 'BBB (sf)', and 'BB+ (sf)' from 'BB (sf)', respectively. At
the same time, S&P affirmed its 'AAA (sf)' rating on the class A
notes.
The rating actions reflect itsfull analysis of the most recent
transaction information that it has received and the transaction's
structural features.
The transaction has seen a material paydown of the notes since
closing, because of a high constant prepayment rate. The current
pool factor sits at 80.0%. This paydown resulted in elevated credit
enhancement for the notes, which in turn improved the cash flow
results, especially for the transaction's more senior tranches.
S&P has also seen an increase in fixed fees in recent periods,
which we have incorporated into our analysis. This has been a
result of higher than anticipated third-party fees in this
transaction.
The transaction's performance remains stable with relatively low
arrears, although there has been an increase in the last two
quarters to current levels of 3.18%, as per the investor report for
the end of August 2024, on which this analysis has been conducted.
Although collateral performance has declined, this has been offset
by the higher credit enhancement.
The general reserve fund has dropped below its target of
EUR340,000, standing at EUR289,178 as of the end of August 2024.
This is because of the abovementioned higher fees. The class A
liquidity reserve fund remains at its target.
S&P said, "After applying our global residential loans criteria,
our weighted-average foreclosure frequency has decreased primarily
because of the transaction's improved weighted-average income
adjustment and the pool's increased seasoning. We also reduced our
first-time buyer penalty due to the increased seasoning. Our
weighted-average loss severity assumptions have decreased at all
rating levels, reflecting the reduced current weighted-average
loan-to-value ratio in line with house price growth since
closing."
Credit analysis results
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%)
AAA 22.97 26.73
AA 15.33 22.05
A 11.62 14.30
BBB 7.75 10.35
BB 3.72 7.73
B 2.92 5.52
WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency.
WALS--Weighted-average loss severity.
S&P said, "We consider the transaction's resilience in case of
additional stresses to some key variables, in particular defaults
and loss severity, to determine our forward-looking view. In our
view, the ability of the borrowers to repay their mortgage loans
will be highly correlated to macroeconomic conditions, particularly
the unemployment rate, consumer price inflation, and interest
rates."
Policy interest rates in the eurozone may have peaked, with the
European Central Bank having cut rates twice since the middle of
2024. Our unemployment rate forecasts for Ireland in 2024 and 2025
are 4.0% for both years.
S&P expects inflation for 2024 to be 2.3%, and 2.1% in 2025. If
inflationary pressures materialize more quickly or more severely
than currently expected, risks may emerge.
S&P said, "Furthermore, a decline in house prices typically
decreases the level of realized recoveries. For Ireland in 2025, we
expect house prices to increase by 4.1%, higher than our forecasts
across Europe. Nevertheless, we ran additional scenarios to test
the effect of a decline in house prices. The results of the
sensitivity analysis indicate a deterioration of no more than one
notch on the notes, which is in line with the credit stability
considerations in our rating definitions.
"A general housing market downturn may delay recoveries. We have
also run extended recovery timings to understand the transaction's
sensitivity to liquidity risk.
"Considering the results of our credit and cash flow analysis, the
increased available credit enhancement, and the transaction's
performance, we consider that the available credit enhancement for
the class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, and E-Dfrd notes is commensurate
with higher ratings. We therefore raised our ratings on these
notes.
"We analyzed the performance of the class E-Dfrd notes with the
same stresses as the other notes, but considered some additional
sensitivities. Specifically, we considered the high proportion of
loans that are on fixed-rate products and are due to revert to a
floating rate in the coming months. This could potentially lead to
an increase beyond the typical level of prepayments expected under
our criteria. We also considered the potential sensitivity of these
notes to a further climb in arrears, given the recent increase in
this transaction and their position in the capital structure. The
ratings remain robust under these stress scenarios.
"Our ratings on the class B–Dfrd to E-Dfrd notes address the
ultimate payment of interest and principal, and timely receipt of
interest when they become the most senior class outstanding.
"The available credit enhancement for the class A notes continues
to be commensurate with the assigned rating. We therefore affirmed
our 'AAA (sf)' rating."
Finance Ireland RMBS No. 5 is a static RMBS transaction that
securitizes a portfolio of owner-occupied mortgage loans, secured
over residential properties in Ireland. The transaction closed in
October 2022.
MONUMENT CLO 2: S&P Assigns B+ (sf) Rating to Class F-1 Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Monument CLO 2
DAC's class A-1 Loan and class A-1, A-2, B, C, D, E, and F-1
European cash flow CLO notes. The issuer also issued unrated
subordinated notes.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes and loan will pay
quarterly interest unless a frequency switch event occurs.
Following this, the debt will permanently switch to semiannual
payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period will end approximately 4.6
years after closing, while the non-call period will end
approximately 1.6 years after closing.
The ratings reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes and loan through collateral
selection, ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P weighted-average rating factor 2,705.35
Default rate dispersion 476.22
Weighted-average life (years) 5.35
Obligor diversity measure 97.94
Industry diversity measure 19.36
Regional diversity measure 1.19
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 0.00
Actual 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 37.94
Floating-rate assets (%) 87.50
Actual weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 4.06
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'. The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
senior secured bonds. Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash
flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the actual weighted-average spread (4.06%), the actual
weighted-average coupon (7.34%), and the target portfolio
weighted-average recovery rates for all classes of notes and loan.
We applied various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different
default patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate
stress scenarios for each liability rating category.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on July 20, 2029, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for as
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes and loan. This test looks at
the total amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as
established by the initial cash flows for each rating, and compares
that with the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses
to date. As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we consider
the transaction's exposure to country risk to be sufficiently
mitigated at the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote. The issuer is a special-purpose entity that meets our
criteria for bankruptcy remoteness.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis show that the class B, C, D, E,
and F-1 notes benefit from break-even default rate and scenario
default rate cushions that we would typically consider to be in
line with higher ratings than those assigned. However, as the CLO
is still in its reinvestment phase, during which the transaction's
credit risk profile could deteriorate, we have capped our ratings
on the notes and loan."
The class A-1 Loan, and class A-1 and A-2 notes can withstand
stresses commensurate with the assigned ratings.
S&P said, "Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow,
counterparty, operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings
are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the
class A-1 Loan, and class A-1 to F-1 notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-1 Loan, and class A-1 to
F-1 notes based on four hypothetical scenarios."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P regards the exposure to environmental, social, and governance
(ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly in line
with its benchmark for the sector.
The transaction documents prohibit assets from being related to
certain activities, including but not limited to, the following:
trade in marijuana, gambling, hazardous chemicals; one whose
revenues are more than 10% derived from deforestation,
controversial weapons, the extraction of thermal coal, oil, and
fossil fuels from unconventional sources.
Accordingly, since the exclusion of assets from certain industries
does not result in material differences between the transaction and
our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific adjustments have been
made in S&P's rating analysis to account for any ESG-related risks
or opportunities.
Monument CLO 2 is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
portfolio of primarily senior secured leveraged loans and bonds. It
is managed by Serone Capital Loan Management Ltd. and Serone
Capital Management LLP.
Ratings
Prelim. Prelim. Amount Credit
Class rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A-1 AAA (sf) 142.00 39.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.38%
A-1 Loan AAA (sf) 100.00 39.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.38%
A-2 AAA (sf) 6.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.58%
B AA (sf) 44.00 27.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.10%
C A (sf) 21.60 21.60 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.60%
D BBB- (sf) 26.40 15.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.50%
E BB- (sf) 22.00 9.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 6.50%
F-1 B+ (sf) 6.00 8.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 7.60%
Sub. Notes NR 38.50 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A-1 Loan and class A-1, A-2, and
B notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments.
The ratings assigned to the class C, D, E, and F-1 notes address
ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
PALMER SQUARE 2023-3: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to Cl. E-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings announced that it has assigned the following
definitive ratings to refinancing notes issued by Palmer Square
European Loan Funding 2023-3 Designated Activity Company (the
"Issuer"):
EUR203,472,942 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR39,000,000 Class B-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR21,200,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned Aa3 (sf)
EUR18,600,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned Baa1 (sf)
EUR18,400,000 Class E-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Assigned Ba2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rationale for the ratings is based on a consideration of the
risks associated with the CLO's portfolio and structure as
described in Moody's methodology.
Palmer Square European Loan Funding 2023-3 Designated Activity
Company, issued in December 2023, is a collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of mostly high-yield senior
secured European loans. The portfolio will continue to be managed
by Palmer Square Capital Management LLC, who may sell assets on
behalf of the Issuer during the life of the transaction.
Reinvestment is not permitted and all sales and principal proceeds
received will be used to amortize the notes in sequential order.
The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests which,
if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to pay down
the notes in order of seniority.
In addition to the five classes of notes rated by us, the Issuer
has issued EUR33,200,000 of Subordinated Notes which are not
rated.
Methodology underlying the rating action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
May 2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The servicer's investment decisions and management
of the transaction will also affect the notes' performance.
Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on
the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Moody's
methodology.
Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:
Target Par Amount: EUR331,390,883
Defaulted Par: EUR0
Diversity Score: 53
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2768
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.85%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.73%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 44.73%
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.98 years
SOUND POINT 12: S&P Assigns Prelim B- (sf) Rating to Cl. F Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to Sound
Point Euro CLO 12 Funding DAC's class A to F European cash flow CLO
notes. At closing, the issuer will also issue unrated subordinated
notes.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will permanently switch to semiannual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period will end approximately 5.09
years after closing, while the non-call period will end two years
after closing.
The preliminary ratings reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which S&P expects to be
bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which S&P expects to be
in line with its counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,872.72
Default rate dispersion 440.87
Weighted-average life (years) 4.84
Weighted-average life (years) extended
to cover the length of the reinvestment period 5.09
Obligor diversity measure 119.82
Industry diversity measure 21.20
Regional diversity measure 1.23
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 0.50
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.77
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 4.02
Rating rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'. At closing, we expect the target portfolio to be
well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly syndicated
speculative-grade senior secured term loans and senior secured
bonds. Therefore, we have conducted our credit and cash flow
analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread (3.95%), the
covenanted weighted-average coupon (4.50%), and the target
portfolio weighted-average recovery rates for all rated notes. We
applied various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different
default patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate
stress scenarios for each liability rating category."
Until the end of the reinvestment period on Jan. 20, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as established by
the initial cash flows for each rating, and compares that with the
current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date. As a
result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the collateral
manager may through trading deteriorate the transaction's current
risk profile, if the initial ratings are maintained.
S&P said, "Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria,
the transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently
mitigated at the assigned preliminary ratings.
"At closing, we expect the transaction's documented counterparty
replacement and remedy mechanisms to adequately mitigate its
exposure to counterparty risk under our current counterparty
criteria.
"We expect the transaction's legal structure and framework to be
bankruptcy remote. The issuer is expected to be a special-purpose
entity that meets our criteria for bankruptcy remoteness.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis shows that the class B-1, B-2 C,
D, E, and F notes benefit from break-even default rate and scenario
default rate cushions that we would typically consider to be in
line with higher preliminary ratings than those assigned. However,
as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase, during which the
transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate, we have capped
our preliminary ratings on the notes. The class A notes can
withstand stresses commensurate with the assigned preliminary
rating.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our preliminary ratings
are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the
class A to F notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes based on four
hypothetical scenarios."
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category--and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met--we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average."
Ratings
Prelim. Prelim. Amount Credit
Class rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.28%
B-1 AA (sf) 33.50 26.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.90%
B-2 AA (sf) 12.50 26.50 4.95%
C A (sf) 23.40 20.65 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.20%
D BBB- (sf) 28.60 13.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.15%
E BB- (sf) 17.00 9.25 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.75%
F B- (sf) 10.00 6.75 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.38%
Sub NR 30.10 N/A N/A
*The preliminary ratings assigned to the class A, B-1, and B-2
notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The
preliminary ratings assigned to the class C, D, E, and F notes
address ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
WATERFORD WHISKY: Faces Receivership After Failing to Raise Funds
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Irish Times reports that Waterford Whisky has entered
receivership after failing to secure new funding. The appointment
of receivers follows weeks of efforts by the company and its main
lender, HSBC, to develop a viable turnaround strategy.
Employees were informed on Wednesday, November 27, 2024, that Mark
Degnan and Daryll McKenna of Interpath Advisory had been appointed
as receivers in a consensual arrangement, notes the report.
Interpath had been working with the company and HSBC to raise fresh
equity or find an alternative solution, relates The Irish Times.
However, these efforts were unsuccessful, leading the company,
after an emergency board meeting, to invite HSBC to appoint
receivers and assume control of the business.
The receivers are expected to either find a buyer for Waterford
Whisky or sell its assets, such as whiskey stocks or the distillery
itself, the report notes.
According to The Irish Times, the latest financial statements for
Waterford Whisky, filed with its UK parent company, reported EUR3
million in sales for 2022, down from EUR3.3 million in 2021. The
EUR300,000 decline in revenue was attributed to its choice of
distribution partner in the U.S. The company also reported
accumulated losses of EUR7.7 million and whiskey stocks valued at
EUR40.1 million.
In January 2023, Waterford secured a EUR45 million in long-term
funding through a facility agreement with HSBC Invoice Finance UK
Limited, replacing its existing debt. Financial results for 2023
have yet to be submitted, the report states.
About Waterford Whisky
Waterford Whisky is a distillery business founded by industry
veteran Mark Reynier in 2016.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
ENEL SPA: Egan-Jones Retains BB Senior Unsecured Ratings
--------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 5, 2024, maintained its 'BB'
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Enel SpA. EJR also withdrew the rating on commercial
paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Rome, Italy, Enel SpA operates as a multinational
power company and an integrated player in the global power, gas,
and renewables markets.
REPUBLIC OF ITALY: Egan-Jones Withdraws BB+ Senior Unsecured Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 19, 2024, withdrew its 'BB+'
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Republic of Italy.
Italy, a European country with a long Mediterranean coastline, has
left a powerful mark on Western culture and cuisine.
TELECOM ITALIA: Egan-Jones Retains B Senior Unsecured Ratings
-------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 5, 2024, maintained its 'B'
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Telecom Italia SpA of Roma Italy. EJR also withdrew
the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Milano, Italy, Telecom Italia SpA of Roma Italy
provides telecommunication equipment.
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
BARENTZ MIDCO: Moody's Lowers CFR to B3, Alters Outlook to Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded Barentz Midco B.V. 's (Barentz or
the company) long term corporate family rating and probability of
default rating to B3 and B3-PD from B2 and B2-PD, respectively.
Concurrently, Moody's downgraded the instrument ratings on all the
outstanding backed senior secured bank credit facilities issued by
Barentz Bidco B.V. and CI (Maroon) Holdings, LLC to B3 from B2.
Moody's changed the outlook on all entities to stable from
negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action reflects the company's high Moody's-adjusted
gross leverage of about 8x for the last 12 months ending September
2024 and Moody's expectation that this ratio will not reduce to a
level commensurate with the previous rating over the next 12-18
months. Moody's view Barentz's tolerance for high leverage as
indicative of an aggressive financial policy, which was a key
driver of the rating action.
Since the last rating action in February 2024, Moody's lowered
Moody's EBITDA (after non-recurring items) expectations for 2024
and 2025 resulting in a slower deleveraging trajectory compared to
Moody's previous expectations. Moody's forecast Moody's-adjusted
EBITDA to be around EUR182 million (or around EUR192 million on a
pro-forma basis for the full year contribution of acquisitions) at
year-end 2024 which translates into a gross leverage of around 8.2x
(or 7.7x on a pro-forma basis for the full year contribution of
acquisitions). The weaker EBITDA than Moody's previously expected
is primarily due to a lower gross profit and substantial
non-recurring expenses.
Due to ongoing IT projects, Moody's expect non-recurring expenses
to remain high in 2025 weighing on Moody's definition of EBITDA.
Nevertheless, Moody's forecast gross leverage to decline to around
7x in 2025 from around 8x in 2024. Moody's forecast assumes
positive organic growth and some bolt-on acquisitions given the
company has a history of acquiring smaller distributors. Moody's
project Barentz's EBITA to interest coverage to be around 2x in
2025, which is solid for its B3 rating.
One of Barentz's key strengths is its ability to generate positive
free cash flow (FCF) despite its high leverage because of the
company's capital spending-light model. Moody's expect FCF to
remain moderately positive over the next 12 months, but the benefit
to leverage is likely to be limited because acquisitions are part
of Barentz's strategy and the size of expected FCF is low compared
to the total debt size.
More generally, Barentz's B3 rating reflects the company's
leadership positions in the global specialty chemicals and life
science ingredients markets; focus on more defensible end markets,
such as food and pharma; and flexible cost base and capital
spending-light business model.
However, Barentz's aggressive financial policy, illustrated by its
high gross leverage and track record of debt funded acquisitions;
lower profitability than that of other rated chemical distributors;
and some dependency on key suppliers all constrain its rating.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects the company's ability to generate free
cash flow despite its high leverage and Moody's expectation that
the company will maintain at least an adequate liquidity profile.
In addition, the company's term loans do not mature until 2031
which provides time for the company to delever.
LIQUIDITY
Barentz has adequate liquidity. As of the end of September 2024,
the company reported EUR96 million of cash on balance sheet and
access to a EUR245 million senior secured revolving credit facility
of which EUR72 million are drawn. In combination with expected
funds from operation (FFO) generation, these sources are sufficient
to cover capital spending and swings in working capital.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade the rating if the company reduces its
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA sustainably below 6x; generates
sustainable meaningful positive free cash flow (FCF), while also
maintaining an adequate liquidity profile.
Moody's could downgrade the rating if the company fails to generate
positive FCF; if there is a deterioration of the liquidity profile;
or if Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA remains sustainably above
7x without prospects of earnings driven deleveraging.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Distribution
and Supply Chain Services published in February 2023.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in the Netherlands, Barentz is one of the world's
leading specialty ingredients distributors, with a focus on the
life science end markets and a global footprint. Barentz is owned
by the private equity firm Cinven.
COMPACT BIDCO: S&P Withdraws 'SD' Issuer Credit Rating
------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings has withdrawn all its ratings on Compact Bidco
B.V. (Consolis) at the issuer's request. At the time of the
withdrawal, its issuer credit rating on Compact Bidco was 'SD'
(selective default).
===========
R U S S I A
===========
FERGANA REGION: S&P Affirms 'B+' ICR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------
On Dec. 6, 2024, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' local and
foreign currency long-term issuer credit ratings on Uzbekistan's
Fergana Region. The outlook is stable.
Outlook
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that
Fergana's budgetary performance will remain balanced and that it
will receive transfers from the central government. We assume that
the region will not owe any debt to commercial lenders because
doing so would require a change to the national regulations that
currently prohibit LRGs from undertaking commercial borrowing."
Downside scenario
S&P said, "We could lower the ratings if the relationship between
Fergana and Uzbekistan's central government were to change so that
support to the region weakened, allowing a deterioration in the
region's budgetary performance. We could also lower the ratings if
Fergana or related public entities were to materially run up the
amount of payables, with possible future negative implications for
the region's liquidity position."
Upside scenario
S&P said, "All else being equal, we might consider an upgrade if
the institutional framework under which Fergana operates were to
improve or if income levels in the region became significantly
stronger. In addition, a substantial improvement in financial
management practices and policies could also prompt us to take a
positive rating action."
Rationale
S&P said, "We forecast that Fergana Region will maintain a balanced
budgetary performance to comply with national regulations. Under
our baseline scenario, we do not expect Fergana to resort to
commercial borrowing. Instead, its existing stock of local currency
loans, contracted from the central government, is likely to
continue to mature, which will further reduce the already very low
overall stock of debt.
"Our ratings on Fergana are constrained by the very volatile and
centralized nature of Uzbekistan's institutional framework for
LRGs. Key decisions are frequently taken at central government
level, which makes them difficult to predict. Ratings are also
restricted by low income levels in the region; our estimated GDP
per capita is about $1,700 for 2024. In addition, central
government controls limit management's ability to influence
regional budgetary performance, which weighs on our ratings.
"Uzbekistan's LRGs operate in a highly centralized and volatile
institutional environment and income levels in Fergana are low
In our view, Uzbekistan's LRGs have limited ability to collectively
influence the policies adopted by the central government." This
exposes them to the risk of unexpected policy shifts. Under the
administration of former long-time president Islam Karimov, the
institutional environment was even more highly centralized. It has
been opening up slowly since 2016, when Mr. Karimov died. Since the
transfer of power began, some decentralization has taken place. A
higher proportion of taxes are now allocated to local budgets and
local governments also have additional discretion over how to spend
any revenue collected in excess of the budgeted amounts (for
instance, revenue from value-added tax).
Somewhat offsetting these effects, other decisions have been
adopted that shift responsibilities in the reverse direction and
move expenditure to the central government budget from the local
level. Some of these decisions appear to have been made with
limited advance planning. For example, in 2024, the central
government took over making benefit payments to families with
children, poverty support payments, and investments in the
construction of new schools and kindergartens. For Fergana Region,
centralizing investment in schools and kindergartens reduced
reported investment spending by 50% in 2024, compared with 2023. A
further decrease is planned for 2025.
S&P said, "In our view, the system's highly centralized nature and
the frequent changes by the central government limit the ability of
Fergana's financial management team to reliably plan spending and
make policy decisions. The region's management started medium-term
planning in 2018, but discrepancies between beginning-of-year
forecasts and actual financial outcomes remain frequent. In our
view, debt and liquidity management practices remain at an early
stage of development. These factors constrain the region's
creditworthiness."
Fergana's economy is relatively weak by international standards,
with low, albeit improving, per capita income level. S&P's
estimated regional GDP per capita for 2024 is $1,700. The regional
economy is still concentrated in less-productive areas of
agriculture and while Fergana accounted for 11% of Uzbekistan's
population in 2023, it contributed 6.5% of GDP.
Fergana's authorities plan to attract additional international
investments into the region. They aim to expand production in key
sectors such as agriculture, textiles, construction materials, and
chemicals. The regional government also has plans to expand its
manufacturing sector--foreign investments are in the pipeline to
produce passenger cars and agricultural vehicles. Under the
existing rules, and based on the total size of their investment,
foreign investors can receive a range of tax breaks on their
operations in Fergana, as well as assistance with connecting to
regional infrastructure. Overall, S&P anticipates that the region's
economy will show strong growth rates, in line with those in
Uzbekistan as a whole and averaging close to 5.5% in real terms
through 2026.
S&P forecasts budgetary performance to remain balanced, with very
low debt
S&P said, "Fergana complies with Uzbekistani legislation that
prohibits it from running any deficits, based on local definitions.
However, we adjust the reported data in accordance with our
methodology, and our adjusted figures may diverge from those
published by Fergana. In particular, we don't consider budget
surpluses from the previous years and loans from the central
government to be new revenue sources, nor do we consider debt
repayments to be expenditure. Based on S&P Global Ratings'
definitions, Fergana ran an average deficit after capital accounts
of 0.8% over 2022-2023. This deficit was predominantly covered by
using available cash and advances from the central government. The
advances amounted to Uzbek sum (UZS) 51 billion (equivalent to $4
million) in 2022 and UZS65 billion ($5 million) in 2023. We project
Fergana's average balance after capital accounts through 2026 to be
marginally positive. That said, revenue sources are likely to be
volatile, given the central government's record of frequently
revising tax rates, expenditure responsibilities, and transfer
amounts.
"In our view, Fergana has substantial infrastructure needs, which
constrain its economic development prospects and somewhat limit its
budget flexibility. However, the funding backlog is unlikely to
lead to a material accumulation of debt, given that the region is
prohibited from commercial borrowings. Currently, Fergana does not
have any debt to commercial lenders, and we do not expect this to
change within the next two years.
"We note the elevated stock of payables reported by entities
related to Fergana. As of October 2024, these payables exceeded the
region's total projected revenue for 2024. Due to data
shortcomings, their detailed composition remains unclear. Reported
data indicates that the stock has not changed meaningfully over the
past three years and that overdue payables remain low, at just 2%
of the total.
"We understand that Fergana oversees some enterprises that are
owned by the central government but operate in the region. Fergana
itself has no stakes in regional enterprises, and there is no track
record of the region providing subsidies, capital injections, or
extraordinary support to the central government-owned companies.
"We assume Fergana's liquidity position will remain solid, given
its very low level of debt. However, the region's debt service
coverage ratio could weaken in the long term if it were to attract
debt, contrary to our base-case scenario. Fergana is currently
eligible to receive central government budget loans to cover
liquidity shortages. Over 2022-2023, it received UZS116 billion of
such lending, with repayments scheduled for 2024, 2025 and 2027. In
our view, the region has limited access to external funding given
that it has no history of borrowing abroad and Uzbekistan's capital
market and banking sector are comparatively underdeveloped."
In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Ratings Score Snapshot above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed
Fergana Region
Issuer Credit Rating B+/Stable/--
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ABRA GROUP: Moody's Gives Caa1 Rating to New $510MM Sr. Sec. Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings assigned Caa1 ratings to Abra's $510 million backed
senior secured notes and $740 million backed senior secured term
loan due 2029 issued at Abra Global Finance (the "Borrower"), and
unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Abra Group Limited
(Abra). The transactions were closed in October 2024 and net
proceeds were applied to fund the prepayment of the backed senior
secured notes due 2028. In connection with these transactions, the
borrower amended the terms and conditions on its backed senior
secured exchangeable notes (SSEN) to resolve existing defaults
related to Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.'s (Gol) Chapter 11
financial reorganization process. Debt under the SSEN instruments
is also rated Caa1 and currently amounts $587 million. All other
ratings remain unchanged. The outlook is stable.
Moody's view the refinancing as credit neutral. The transaction
will not increase Abra's leverage but will improve financial
flexibility amid Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.'s (Gol)
Chapter 11 financial reorganization process. Before Gol filed for
Chapter 11, Abra signed a forbearance agreement with its creditors.
Moody's expected the agreement to remain in place until Gol exits
the Chapter 11 process. However, the refinancing transactions and
amendment to the SSEN result the existing events of default
increasing flexibility during Gol's reorganization. Moreover,
Abra's maturity profile improved modestly after the transactions
closed extending the maturity of approximately $1.3billion to 2029
from 2028. Lenders who participated in the transactions benefit
from the same priority claim. As a result, it did not result in
material change in the capital structure or claim ranking.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Abra's Caa1 rating reflects the group's size, scale, market
position and good business profile of its main subsidiaries Gol
Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. and Avianca Group International
Limited ("Avianca", B2 stable), with significant cross selling,
network and loyalty program coordination synergies, and increased
connectivity and geographic diversity within Latin America. The
Abra group offers over 1,200 daily flights with over 100 billion in
annual available-seat kilometers (ASKs), with a fleet of over 300
aircrafts, serving 140 destinations and with over 60 million
passengers transported and over 37 million of members in its
loyalty programs. The company's adequate liquidity at the holding
level also supports the rating.
The rating is constrained by the credit profile of Gol and Avianca,
and by Abra's dependence on cash from the subsidiaries to cover
interest payments at the holding level. The company's evolving
corporate governance standards as a recently created company, and
the current lack of track record of realized synergies also
constrain the rating.
Gol filed for Chapter 11 protection in January 2024 and recently
announced a plan support agreement (PSA) to file a Chapter 11 plan
of reorganization that will allow it deleverage by converting into
equity, up to $1.7 billion of its prepetition funded debt and up to
$850 million of other obligations. Abra agreed to receive $950
million in new equity and $ 850 million of take-back debt. Gol's
unsecured creditors will also receive new equity valued up to
approximately $ 235 million or more in certain circumstances.
Earlier this year, Gol received a final court order to secure $1
billion debtor-in-position (DIP) financing that included clauses to
secure interest payments to Abra and a $15 million reimbursement
related to a bridge loan made earlier. The continuity of Gol's
interest payments to Abra during its Chapter 11 process increases
visibility over Abra's cash interest coverage, whereas the PSA
reduces uncertainty of any litigation regarding debt claims,
allowing Gol to move forward to the next phase of the Chapter 11
process.
The Caa1 ratings of Abra's senior secured notes and term loan
maturing in 2029 and senior secured exchangeable notes due 2028
reflect the instruments' collateral package, which includes a first
priority lien on the subsidiaries that hold 100% of the equity
interests of Avianca, including Avianca's convertible debt
investment in Sky Airlines S. A. (SKY) (which converts into 41% of
the equity interest in SKY); a first priority lien on the
subsidiaries that hold 53.69% economic rights in Gol; a first
priority lien on Gol's senior secured notes due 2028 held by Abra
and when replaced on Gol's exchangeable senior secured notes due
2028; and a first priority lien on the cash accounts at Abra and a
pledge of any intercompany loans at Abra. The secured notes and
term loan comprise the totality of the debt issued at Abra's
holding level.
Abra has an adequate liquidity profile, with an estimated
uncommitted cash position of about $91 million, including the $15
million reimbursed by Gol, as of September 2024. The company's main
source of cash relates to the cash payments from Gol's secured
notes due 2028, and management fees from Avianca, which provides
good coverage for the cash interest payment at Abra; whereas main
cash outflows relate to the cash interest payments under the
secured notes and term loan (about $80 million per year) and annual
expenses at the holding level of approximately $40 million per
year. Moody's estimate that Abra's sources of cash will cover its
cash interest expense by 1.5x-2x, assuming no dividend payments
from Gol or Avianca at least for the next 2 years. With this
liquidity profile, Abra can cover its upcoming debt obligations
without facing major liquidity squeezes.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Abra's
operating and financial performance will remain relatively stable
overtime, supported by the performances of its main subsidiaries,
Gol and Avianca.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade of Abra's rating would require an improvement in the
credit profile of Gol or Avianca. Additional sources of cash that
improve its coverage of cash interest could also lead to an upgrade
of its rating.
Abra's rating could be downgraded if the credit profile of Gol or
Avianca deteriorates, or if its liquidity profile at the holding
level deteriorates, with coverage of cash interest below 1x on a
sustained basis.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Passenger
Airlines published in August 2024.
Abra Group Limited (Abra) - created in 2022 and incorporated in the
UK - is the platform company that holds 53.69% economic rights in
Gol, one of Brazil's leading domestic low-cost carriers; 100% of
Avianca Group, that through its subsidiaries is a leading Latin
American airline serving the domestic markets of Colombia, Ecuador
and Central America, and international routes in North, Central and
South America, Europe and the Caribbean; and a financial investment
in SKY Airline (SKY), a Chilean low-cost domestic carrier; and a
strategic investment in Wamos Air, a leading Spanish ACMI operator
focused on providing charter aircraft leasing and wet leasing
services to airline clients around the world. Abra reported pro
forma consolidated revenue of $5.1 billion in the twelve months
ended in September 2024, derived exclusively from Avianca Group
International Limited. Abra's investment in GOL is treated as a
financial instrument (shares) rather than consolidated revenue.
CROWN BRICKWORK: Verulam Advisory Named as Joint Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------------
Crown Brickwork and Scaffolding Ltd, fka Crown Brickwork
Contractors Ltd, was placed into administration proceedings in the
High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales Insolvency and Companies, Court Number: CR-2024-006574, and
William Turner and Peter Nicholas Wastell of Verulam Advisory were
appointed as joint administrators on Nov. 1, 2024.
Its registered office and principal trading address is at 31 Home
Close, Carterton, Oxon OX18 3GQ.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
William Turner
Peter Nicholas Wastell
Verulam Advisory
Second Floor, The Annexe
New Barnes Mill
Cottonmill Lane, St Albans
AL1 2HA
Further Details Contact:
The Joint Administrators
Email: info@verulamadvisory.co.uk.
Tel No: 01727 701 788
Alternative contact: James Gibney
DAVID BROWN: MB Insolvency Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------
David Brown Automotive Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property
Courts in Birmingham, Insolvency and Companies List (ChD), No
000657 of 2024, and Mark Bowen of MB Insolvency was appointed as
administrator on Nov. 25, 2024.
David Brown is a car manufacturer.
Its registered office is at Silverstone, Buckingham Road,
Silverstone, Towcester, NN12 8FU. Its principal trading address is
at Unit 2, Brixworth Technology Park, Quarry Road, Brixworth, NN6
9UB.
The administrator can be reached at:
Mark Bowen
MB Insolvency
11 Roman Way, Berry Hill
Droitwich, WR9 9AJ
Further Details Contact:
Thomas Bowen
Email: thomasbowen@mb-i.co.uk
Tel No: 01905 776 771
ITICO E LIMITED: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------
Itico E Limited, trading as Eggslut, was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number: CR-2024-06743, and Andrew Andronikou and Michael
Kiely of Quantuma Advisory Limited, were appointed as
administrators on Nov. 21, 2024.
Itico E Limited operates licensed restaurants.
Its registered office is at 185 Portobello Road, London, W11 2ED
(in the process of being changed to C/o Quantuma Advisory Limited,
7th Floor, 20 St Andrew Street, London, EC4A 3AG). It has various
trading addresses.
The administrators can be reached at:
Andrew Andronikou
Michael Kiely
Quantuma Advisory Limited
7th Floor, 20 St. Andrew Street
London, EC4A 3AG
For further details, contact:
Archie Edmonds
Email: archie.edmonds@quantuma.com
Tel No: 020 744 7234
J D WETHERSPOON: Egan-Jones Hikes Senior Unsecured Ratings to B-
----------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 14, 2024, upgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by J D Wetherspoon PLC to B- from CCC+. EJR also
withdrew the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Watford, United Kingdom, J D Wetherspoon PLC owns
and operates a group of pubs throughout the United Kingdom.
JLM GLOBAL: KRE Corporate Named as Joint Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------
JLM Global Foods Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2024-006898, and
Paul Ellison and Christopher Errington of KRE Corporate Recovery
Limited, were appointed as joint administrators on Nov. 26, 2024.
JLM Global is a manufacturer of food products.
Its registered office is at C/o KRE Corporate Recovery Limited,
Unit 8, The Aquarium, 1-7 King Street, Reading, RG1 2AN. Its
principal trading address is at 37 Allington Way, Yarm Road
Business Park, Darlington, DL1 4QB.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Paul Ellison
Christopher Errington
KRE Corporate Recovery Limited
Unit 8, The Aquarium
1-7 King Street, Reading
RG1 2AN
Further Details Contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 01189 479090
Email: info@krecr.co.uk
Alternative contact: Kelly Rumsam
LIBERTY STEEL: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Liberty Steel East Europe (Midco) Limited was placed into
administration proceedings in the High Court of Justice, Business
and Property Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies
List (ChD), Court Number: CR-2024-007194, and Gary Paul Shankland
and Kevin Murphy of Begbies Traynor (London) LLP, were appointed as
administrators on Nov. 26, 2024.
Liberty Steel manufactures basic iron and steel, and ferro-alloys.
Its registered office is at 1st Floor, 3 More London Place, SE1
2RE.
The administrators can be reached at:
Gary Paul Shankland
Kevin Murphy
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
For further information, contact:
Boyd Yeung
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
Email: boyd.yeung@btguk.com
Tel No: 020 7516 1500
POLOPLEX LIMITED: Lines Henry Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Polopex Limited was placed into administration proceedings in the
Business and Property Court in Manchester, No CR-2024-MAN-001534,
and Neil Henry of Lines Henry Ltd was appointed as administrator on
Nov. 26, 2024.
Polopex Limited, trading as Amigos Burgers and Shakes, specializes
in Takeaway Food.
Its registered office is at Suite 114 Unit 3, Victoria Road,
London, W3 6FA. Its principal trading address is at 120 Uxbridge
Road, London W12 BAA, 253 High Street, Acton, London, W3 9BY.
The administrator can be reached at:
Neil Henry
Lines Henry Ltd
5 Tabley Court, Victoria Street
Altrincham, Cheshire
WA14 1EZ
Further Details Contact: 0161 929 1905
RELATE: FRP Advisory Named as Joint Administrators
--------------------------------------------------
Relate was placed into administration proceedings in the High Court
of Justice, Court Number: CR-2024-007192, and Philip David Reynolds
and Ian James Corfield of FRP Advisory Trading Limited, were
appointed as joint administrators on Nov. 26, 2024.
Relate offers counseling services.
Its registered office is at The Gables, 3 St. Marys Road, Hemel
Hempstead, HP2 5HL to be changed to FRP Advisory Trading Limited,
110 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6EU.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Philip David Reynolds
Ian James Corfield
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
110 Cannon Street, London
EC4N 6EU
Further Details Contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 3005 4000
Alternative contact:
Clem Tibber
Email: Relate@frpadvisory.com
SUBSEA 7: Egan-Jones Retains BB+ Senior Unsecured Ratings
---------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 19, 2024, maintained its
'BB+' foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings
on debt issued by Subsea 7 S.A. EJR also withdrew the rating on
commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in Sutton, United Kingdom, Subsea 7 S.A. offers
oilfield services.
TECHNIPFMC PLC: Egan-Jones Retains BB Senior Unsecured Ratings
--------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company on November 14, 2024, maintained its
'BB' foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings
on debt issued by TechnipFMC plc. EJR also withdrew the rating on
commercial paper issued by the Company.
Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, TechnipFMC plc provides
oilfield services.
UK LOGISTICS 2024-2: Moody's Gives Ba3 Rating to GBP48.4MM E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned the following definitive ratings to
the notes issued by UK Logistics 2024-2 DAC (the "Issuer"):
GBP200.6M Class A Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
GBP32.7M Class B Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3 (sf)
GBP34.2M Class C Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned A3 (sf)
GBP54.1M Class D Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
GBP48.4M Class E Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
UK Logistics 2024-2 DAC is a true sale transaction backed by two
floating rate loans secured by 63 urban logistics and industrial
outdoor storage (IOS) assets located throughout the United Kingdom.
The Indurent loan is secured by 39 urban logistics assets, while
the Mileway loan is secured by 24 urban logistics and IOS assets.
The loans were granted by Bank of America Europe DAC and Morgan
Stanley Principal Funding, Inc. to finance the acquisition of the
two portfolios. The sponsor of both loans is The Blackstone Group
(Blackstone).
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is based on (i) Moody's assessment of the real
estate quality and characteristics of the collateral, (ii) analysis
of the loan terms and (iii) the legal and structural features of
the transaction.
Moody's derive a loss expectation for the securitised loans based
on Moody's assessment of (i) each loan's default probability both
during its term and at maturity and (ii) the value of the
collateral. Moody's default risk assumptions are medium for both
loans.
Moody's loan to value ratios (LTV) stands at 73.6% for the Indurent
loan and 76.7% for the Mileway loan. Moody's property grades range
from an average of 2.5 on the Indurent loan to 2.0 for the Mileway
loan (on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being the best).
The key strengths of the transaction include: (i) well-located
asset portfolios, close to major transport networks and population
centres, (ii) a diversified tenant base with 239 unique tenants,
(iii) positive reversionary potential, (iv) favourable market
fundamentals for last mile logistics properties and (v) an
experienced sponsor with strong asset management teams for both
portfolios.
Challenges in the transaction include: (i) elevated default risk
considering both term and refinancing default risk, (ii) elevated
vacancy levels, (iii) pro-rata allocation of principal proceeds
(iv) weak release price mechanism and no scheduled amortisation,
(v) exposure to older properties with partly weak energy efficiency
ratings and (vi) weak covenants with no financial default covenant
prior to a change of control event (CoC).
Further, Moody's have rated the notes considering the legal final
maturity date of the notes as specified at Closing. The transaction
includes a concept of a Term Extension Modification which may be
passed by way of an Ordinary Resolution of the holders of each
Class of notes, which will have the effect of extending the date of
legal final maturity beyond the initial legal final maturity date.
Moody's will consider the impact of any such Term Extension
Modification if and when it is enacted, having regard to the
circumstances driving the extension.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating EMEA CMBS Transactions" published in May 2021.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings are generally: (i) a decline in the property values backing
the underlying loans, (ii) an increase in default risk assessment
or (iii) an extension of the legal final maturity date consistent
with Moody's definition of distressed exchange.
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings are generally: (i) an increase in the property values
backing the underlying loans, (ii) repayment of loans with an
assumed high refinancing risk or (iii) a decrease in default risk
assessment.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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