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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, October 14, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 205
Headlines
G E R M A N Y
ASTERIX HOLDCO: S&P Affirms 'B+' LT ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
STEPSTONE GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, Outlook Remains Stable
I R E L A N D
BAIN CAPITAL 2019-1: S&P Affirms 'B-(sf)' Rating on Class F Notes
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating on F-RR Notes
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B-' Rating on FRR Notes
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: S&P Assigns Prelim. B-(sf) Rating on F-R Notes
TAURUS 2021-2 SP: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on EUR23.3MM E Notes
N E T H E R L A N D S
AMMEGA GROUP: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Negative
MILA 2025-1: Moody's Assigns Ba1 Rating to 2 Tranches
ORSINI HOLDCO: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B' Rating, Outlook Stable
N O R W A Y
AUTOMATE INTERMEDIATE II: Moody's Hikes CFR to Ba2, Outlook Stable
R U S S I A
IPOTEKA-BANK: Fitch Rates USD300MM & UZS1.2TT Unsec. Notes 'BB'
S L O V E N I A
GORENJSKA BANKA: S&P Rates Proposed EUR50MM Tier 2 Sub. Notes 'B+'
S P A I N
SANTANDER CONSUMER 2025-1: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'BB+'
TENDAM BRANDS: Moody's Withdraws 'Ba3' Corporate Family Rating
S W I T Z E R L A N D
VERISURE MIDHOLDING: Moody's Upgrades CFR to Ba1, Outlook Stable
T U R K E Y
AYDEM YENILENEBILIR: Fitch Rates USD50MM 9.8% Notes Due 2030 'B'
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
BLITZEN SECURITIES 1: Fitch Lowers Rating on Class F Notes to CCC
CLINIGEN: S&P Affirms 'B' LT ICR After Acquisition of SSI Strategy
DENDRA SYSTEMS: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
MELIOR LABS: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
MORGLAS ABS 2025-1: Fitch Assigns 'B(EXP)sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
NEWDAY GROUP: S&P Withdraws 'B+' LongTerm Issuer Credit Rating
NEXUS UTILITIES: Moorfields Named as Administrators
PREMIER MBP: Oury Clark Named as Administrators
VENATOR MATERIALS: Moody's Withdraws 'C' Corporate Family Rating
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G E R M A N Y
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ASTERIX HOLDCO: S&P Affirms 'B+' LT ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
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S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' long-term issuer credit rating
on Asterix Holdco AG and its 'B+' issue rating on the debt issued
by its subsidiary, Asterix Acquico.
S&P said, "We revised the outlook to stable from negative and this
reflects our view that the group will build on its brand strength
and strengthening its positions across both the D2C and B2B
channels. This should sustainably expand its earnings base such
that over the next 12-18 months it maintains S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins of about 20%, FOCF of about EUR70
million-EUR90 million, and leverage of 3.0x-3.5x.
"We revised our base-case forecast for Asterix HoldCo, this
reflects the improved resilience of its earnings and growth
potential as the group expands the reach of its well-recognized
brands across both the direct-to-consumer (D2C) and
business-to-business (B2B) channels. Credit metrics will remain
largely commensurate with the rating level due to continual focus
on cash generation and moderate financial policy.
"For full-year 2025, we forecast revenue growth of 25% and S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted margins of 20%, up from 17% in 2024. We
note that the group's track record of operational improvements and
careful working capital management are supported by the current
year trading and we expect free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt
of about 11% and S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage of 3.2x at
year-end 2025, below the last 12 months June leverage of about
3.4x. We assume that the earnings growth trend will continue over
our forecast horizon, and the U.S. business will have a
cash-neutral impact.
"We think that the group has evolved into a more resilient
business, underpinned by the acceleration of the B2B sales channel
and ability to pass on volatile raw material prices, which combined
we expect to translate to S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA
margins of 20% in 2025. Despite weak macroeconomic developments
with customers deferring discretionary spending and trading down,
in first-half 2025 (ending June 2025) Asterix achieved revenue
growth of 45% and management-adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%--a more
than 600-basis-point (bps) improvement year on year. This is
because it gained more active customers in its D2C business,
succeeded in passing through commodity price inflation via
optimized pricing strategy, capitalized on operating leverage and
continued expanding its B2B business. The combination of revenue
growth accompanied with improved margins support our view of a more
resilient business, driven by its brand equity that allows for
pricing power to pass on volatile raw material costs. We therefore
forecast S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins will improve in
the full year 2025 to 20%, up from 17% in 2024.
"The swift deleveraging to 3.2x after the debt financed acquisition
in the U.S. and shareholder renumeration in March 2025 underpins
our financial policy assessment. In March 2025, Asterix issued debt
to pay EUR300 million to its immediate parent company Asterix
Investments S.a.r.l. (not rated) via the full repayment of the
shareholder loan (EUR259 million at end 2024) and an additional
EUR35 million loan from Asterix HoldCo. While we view the
recapitalization as a constraint, we think that this transaction
still points to a conservative leverage for a sponsor-owned group
because we expect a reduction to 3.2x in 2025. Part of the
upstreamed cash was used to acquire a stake of 73% in the RAW/BUM
Energy group in the U.S. Under our current analysis, we do not
include the U.S. operations in Asterix Holdco's adjusted credit
metrics, but we assess that the creditworthiness of the wider group
would not differ from Asterix given the current limited size of the
U.S. business and the financial-sponsor ownership. We understand
that there is no debt at the group level besides the shareholder
loans above Asterix Investments and that the performance of the
U.S. operations has also been in line with our expectations. We
therefore do not expect any cash leakage from the Asterix group to
fund the U.S. operations, earn outs, or minority interest
purchases.
"FOCF to debt to approach 11% in 2025 on the back of higher
profitability and effective working capital management. S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted FOCF has turned positive to more than EUR64
million in 2024 after a negative FOCF of about EUR5 million in
2023. Despite our expectation of further EBITDA growth to EUR203
million in 2025, we anticipate that FOCF will only increase
modestly to EUR73 million in 2025. This is due to the increased
interest following the recapitalization in March 2025, which has
subsequently been repriced in September 2025 to 375 bps, and due to
growth in its B2B business that we expect to result in a working
capital increase. Therefore, we anticipate that FOCF to debt will
increase to 11.0% in 2025 and 13.6% in 2026. We now see a track
record of earnings and positive FOCF over the last five quarters,
translating to substantial cash of EUR95 million as of June 2025.
"We think that Asterix has solidified its position in Germany,
Austria, and Switzerland, however, the operating model and
international growth could result in earnings volatility. The group
relies on social media to advertise their product and is therefore
more exposed to a virality phenomenon that can greatly boost
sales--as evidenced by the growth in sales to about EUR1 billion in
the last 12 months to June 2025 from EUR450 million in 2022--but
can also translate into rapid erosion if the products sold become
badly perceived, for example, due to the behavior of key community
leaders. With the diversification of the community leader base and
the acceleration of the B2B business, which contributed about 23%
of group revenue in 2024, the reliance is expected to decrease
somewhat. While not a key contributor yet, the group's significant
growth opportunities in international markets could further
diversify and scale its business. However, we are cautious about
the inherent risk as expansions can result in exceptional expenses
and higher-than-anticipated marketing and fulfillment expense if
growth aspirations are not achieved, which could dilute margins
from our current expectations of 20% S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA margin.
"The stable outlook reflects our view that the group will build on
its brand strength and strengthening its positions across both the
D2C and B2B channels. This should sustainably expand its earnings
base such that over the next 12-18 months it maintains S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins of about 20%, FOCF of about EUR70
million-EUR90 million, and leverage of 3.0x-3.5x.
"We could lower the rating if the group did not perform according
to our expectations, because of, for example, social media turmoil,
a loss of key community leaders or market share, or a more
aggressive financial policy leading to debt-financed distributions,
acquisitions, or additional debt raised above the restricted
group." Specifically, S&P could lower its rating if:
-- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA approached 5.0x;
-- S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF deteriorated such that FOCF to
debt approached 5%; or
-- S&P observes a weakening liquidity profile.
A positive rating action would hinge on the financial sponsor
relinquishing control over the company, accompanied by a financial
policy to sustain adjusted leverage well below 4.0x and strong S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF. While unlikely over the next 12-24
months we could consider a higher rating if the company were to
drastically expand its scale and business diversity alongside
sustainably strong profitability and cash generation, leading to a
substantially stronger business profile.
STEPSTONE GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, Outlook Remains Stable
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Moody's Ratings has downgraded The Stepstone Group Midco 1 GmbH's
(Stepstone) long-term Corporate Family Rating to B2 from B1 and its
Probability of Default Rating to B2-PD from B1-PD. Stepstone is a
leading digital recruiting platform with operations in Germany and
other EMEA countries, and a provider of programmatic recruitment
solutions in North America. Concurrently, Moody's have downgraded
to B2 from B1 the ratings on the EUR1,350 million backed senior
secured term loan B (TLB), the $600 million backed senior secured
TLB and on the EUR300 million backed senior secured revolving
credit facility (RCF), all due in 2031 (with the RCF maturing 6
months before the TLBs) and borrowed by The Stepstone Group Midco 2
GmbH. The outlook of all entities remains stable.
"The downgrade reflects the significant revenue and EBITDA
underperformance in 2025 amid a weaker than anticipated demand for
recruitment services owing to a more challenging macroeconomic
environment in Germany, its core market. As a result, credit
metrics are weaker than expected with gross leverage at around 7.0x
in 2025," says Agustin Alberti, a Moody's Ratings Vice
President-Senior Analyst and lead analyst for Stepstone.
"While Moody's expects a recovery in operating performance over the
next 12-18 months, leverage will remain outside the boundaries for
the previous B1 rating, while visibility remains limited," adds Mr.
Alberti.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The current challenging economic environment has led to a continued
decrease in demand for recruitment services, impacting Stepstone's
revenue and EBITDA generation. Moody's estimates a c.14% decline in
revenues for 2025 driven by a substantial decrease in demand for
recruitment services, particularly in Germany, its home market.
This has been partially offset by solid organic growth in its US
division. This decline in revenues contrasts with Moody's prior
expectation of stable revenues back in November 2024, as Moody's
were expecting some recovery of the job recruiting market
throughout 2025.
Despite EBITDA margins holding at a high level of around 36%
(Moody's adjusted) supported by cost reduction measures and
efficiency plans, Moody's now expect the company to report a
Moody's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 of EUR285 million compared to
around EUR340 million Moody's expected back in November 2024.
As a result, the company's Moody's adjusted gross debt to EBITDA
will rise to 7.0x in 2025 (6.5x in 2024), compared to Moody's last
year's estimate of 5.8x. Moody's expects the company's Moody's
adjusted free cash flow (FCF) to be positive at around EUR35
million in 2025, but Moody's estimates that it would have been
slightly negative on a proforma basis (if the company would have
paid interests for the full year under the new capital structure
instead of 9 months) compared with Moody's previous expectation of
EUR55 million.
Moody's projects that revenues will increase by 10% in 2026, driven
by improving macroeconomic trends in Germany thanks to the
implementation of the fiscal package approved in March 2025,
particularly through increased investment in the defense and
infrastructure sectors. Moody's expects that German GDP growth will
accelerate to 1.4% in 2026 compared to 0.3% in 2025, although
unemployment will remain stable at around 3.8%. Moody's projects
that Moody's EBITDA margins will improve towards 40% supported by
the increase in revenue and the benefits of the efficiency plans.
Moody's estimates that Stepstone's gross debt/EBITDA ratio
(Moody's-adjusted) will improve to 5.8x in 2026, still outside the
boundaries for the previous B1 rating. Moody's base case scenario
does not factor in any distribution to shareholders or any
debt-financed acquisitions, which could delay this leverage
reduction path, as Moody's understands that the main priority will
be deleveraging.
Stepstone's B2 rating is supported by (1) the company's strong
position as the leading provider of online recruiting services in
Germany, as well as its leadership position in the US programmatic
recruiting segment through Appcast; (2) its good brand awareness,
long-standing client relationships and low churn rate among large
customers; (3) the secular industry growth driven by the increasing
adoption of online recruitment services and sustained demand for
skilled labour; (4) its flexible cost structure with high
proportion of variable costs that can be adjusted during periods of
challenging business conditions; and (5) its high EBITDA margins
and moderate capital spending requirements, which results in
positive FCF generation.
Conversely, the ratings are constrained by (1) the company's
moderate scale when compared with large and well-capitalised global
players such as LinkedIn (owned by Microsoft Corporation, Aaa
stable) and Indeed (owned by Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd., A3
stable); (2) the highly competitive environment and threat of new
disruptive technologies and business models, (3) the exposure to
the cyclical employment market, which is visible in the weak
revenue performance between 2023 and 2025; and (4) the high
leverage of 7.0x and weaker than expected FCF generation.
LIQUIDITY
Stepstone's liquidity is good, supported by a cash balance of EUR98
million as of June 2025, access to a EUR300 million undrawn RCF,
and long-dated maturities with the RCF and the TLBs maturing in
2031. Moody's forecasts that the group's FCF (Moody's-adjusted)
will improve to around EUR60 million in 2026 with FCF/debt at 3%.
The RCF is subject to a net leverage springing covenant set at
9.75x, with ample headroom at closing, tested only when the RCF is
drawn by more than 45%.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2-PD probability of default rating is in line with the B2 CFR,
reflecting the 50% family recovery rate that Moody's uses for all
first-lien bank debt covenant-lite capital structures.
The EUR1,925 million equivalent TLB and the EUR300 million RCF are
rated B2, in line with the company's CFR. All facilities are
guaranteed by the company's subsidiaries and benefit from a
guarantor coverage of not less than 80% of the group's consolidated
EBITDA. The security package includes key shares, receivables and
material bank accounts.
Moody's notes the presence of EUR522 million outstanding PIK notes
(unrated) at the shareholder company, Traviata B.V. (Traviata),
outside of the restricted group defined by the lenders of
Stepstone. While the PIK instrument is sitting outside of the
restricted group, it represents an overhang for Stepstone, as it
could be refinanced within the restricted group once sufficient
financial flexibility develops. However, Moody's notes that
Traviata also owns a majority equity stake in AVIV Group MidCo GmbH
(B3 stable), a real estate online portal.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook is based on Moody's expectations that Stepstone
will maintain its solid market positioning in the different markets
where it operates, the job recruiting market will start recovering
in 2026 and the company will progressively reduce leverage and
improve its FCF generation. The stable outlook does not factor in
any distribution to shareholders or debt-financed acquisitions.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive rating pressure could develop if (1) the company reports
steady revenue growth while maintaining high margins and leading
market shares; (2) improves its credit metrics on a sustainable
basis such that its Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio drops below
5.0x, and generates positive FCF such that its FCF/Debt ratio
(Moody's adjusted) improves above 5%; and (3) it maintains a good
liquidity position.
Moody's notes that the PIK instrument outside of the restricted
group represents an overhang for Stepstone and could constrain
upward rating pressure in the future.
The rating could be downgraded if: (1) Stepstone's competitive
profile weakens, leading to a material erosion in market share; (2)
the company's operating performance fails to recover or is not
sufficient to improve its credit metrics such that its
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio remains above 6.5x or is unable
to generate positive FCF on a sustained basis; or (3) its liquidity
weakens.
The rating could also be downgraded if the company undertakes debt
funded acquisitions or makes distributions to shareholders which
delay Moody's deleveraging expectations.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany, the Stepstone Group is the
leading German online job platform and a leading provider of
programmatic powered recruitment solutions in North America. It
also operates more than 20 job marketplaces in EMEA. After the
split from Axel Springer SE (Axel Springer), the company is
majority owned and controlled by KKR & CO INC and CPP Investments.
In 2024, the company generated EUR903 million of revenue and EUR336
million of company-adjusted EBITDA.
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I R E L A N D
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BAIN CAPITAL 2019-1: S&P Affirms 'B-(sf)' Rating on Class F Notes
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S&P Global Ratings raised its credit ratings on Bain Capital Euro
CLO 2019-1 DAC's class B notes to 'AAA (sf)' from 'AA (sf)', class
C notes to 'AA- (sf)' from 'A (sf)', and class D notes to 'A- (sf)'
from 'BBB (sf)'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'AAA (sf)'
rating on the class A notes, 'BB (sf)' rating on the class E notes,
and 'B- (sf)' rating on the class F notes.
The rating actions follow the application of S&P's global corporate
CLO criteria, and our credit and cash flow analysis of the
transaction based on the August 2025 trustee report and the ratings
S&P uses in its analysis is as of Sept. 16, 2025.
Since the closing date in December 2019:
-- The weighted-average rating of the portfolio remains unchanged
at 'B'.
-- The number of performing obligors has decreased to 128 from
145.
-- The portfolio's weighted-average life has decreased to 3.23
years from 5.51 years.
-- The percentage of 'CCC'-rated assets has increased to 8.56%
from 1.00% of the performing balance.
-- The liabilities decreased by EUR107.96 million, while the
assets declined by 117.60 million, resulting in a EUR9.64 million
loss, equivalent to -2.41% of the aggregate collateral balance
since closing.
Following the deleveraging of the senior notes, the class A to E
notes benefit from higher levels of credit enhancement compared
with closing. The available credit enhancement for the class F
notes is now commensurate with a lower stress level than at
closing, due to the increase in defaulted assets.
Credit enhancement
Current amount
Class (mil. EUR) Current (%) At closing in 2019 (%)
A 142.04 49.70 37.50
B 40.00 35.54 27.50
C 27.60 25.76 20.60
D 23.40 17.48 14.75
E 21.00 10.04 9.50
F 10.40 6.36 6.90
M-1 32.10 N/A N/A
M-2 0.50 N/A N/A
N/A--Not applicable.
The scenario default rates (SDRs) have decreased for all rating
scenarios primarily due to a reduction in the weighted-average life
since the closing date (3.34 years from 5.51 years).
Portfolio benchmarks
SPWARF 2,845.25
Default rate dispersion 671.31
Weighted-average life (years) 3.23
Obligor diversity measure 102.01
Industry diversity measure 18.63
Regional diversity measure 1.20
SPWARF--S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor.
On the cash flow side:
-- The reinvestment period for the transaction ended in April
2024.
-- The class A notes have deleveraged by EUR107.96 million since
closing, equivalent to an outstanding note factor of 56.8%.
-- No class of notes is currently deferring interest.
All coverage tests are passing as of the August 2025 trustee
report.
Transaction key metrics*
Total collateral amount (mil. EUR)* 282.40
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 4.64
Number of performing obligors 128
Portfolio weighted-average rating B
'AAA' SDR (%) 57.11
'AAA' WARR (%) 36.44
*Performing assets plus cash and expected recoveries on defaulted
assets.
SDR--Scenario default rate.
WARR--Weighted-average recovery rate.
In S&P's view, the portfolio is diversified across obligors,
industries, and asset characteristics.
S&P said, "In our credit and cash flow analysis, we considered the
transaction's available current cash balance of approximately
EUR27.28 million, as per the August 2025 trustee report. However,
since February 2025 the collateral manager has hardly used the
principal proceeds for reinvestment following the failure of the
collateral quality test, including the weighted-average life test.
Additionally, as per the transaction documents, proceeds not
reinvested post the reinvestment period shall be disbursed in
accordance with the principal proceeds priority of payments on the
following payment date.
"We considered the collateral quality test failure and the fact
that most of the available principal proceeds were used to repay
the notes. Therefore, while potential reinvestments may prolong the
note repayment profile for the most senior class, we have
considered as a base case, the possibility for the structure to
amortize all of its proceeds on the following payment date.
Additionally, we considered other scenarios in which the full
amount of principal cash is reinvested.
"Our base case credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the
available credit enhancement for the class A and B notes is
sufficient to withstand the credit and cash flow stresses that we
apply at the 'AAA' rating level. We therefore affirmed our 'AAA
(sf)' rating on the class A notes and raised to 'AAA (sf)' from 'AA
(sf)' our rating on the class B notes.
"Our cash flow analysis indicates that the available credit
enhancement for the class C notes could withstand stresses
commensurate with a higher rating level than that assigned.
However, we considered several key factors, including the cushion
between our break-even default rates (BDRs) and the SDRs, the
tranche's relative seniority, available credit enhancement, and the
current macroeconomic environment. Therefore, we limited our
upgrade and raised our rating on the class C notes to 'AA- (sf)'
from 'A (sf)'.
"Our base case credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the
available credit enhancement for the class D notes is sufficient to
withstand the stresses that we apply at the 'A-' rating level. We
therefore raised our rating on the class D notes to 'A- (sf)' from
'BBB (sf)'.
"For the class E notes, our base case and reinvested cash scenario
analysis indicate that available credit enhancement is not
commensurate with the current 'BB-' rating level. However, given
that the collateral quality test failure limits the collateral
manager's ability to reinvest principal proceeds, most of the
principal proceeds will instead be diverted toward paying down the
notes, further deleveraging the senior notes. We expect this to
improve the available credit enhancement and cash flow results for
the class E notes."
Moreover, when incorporating recoveries on defaulted assets based
on the current class E rating level of 'BB', the class E notes
could withstand stresses consistent with their current rating
level. In addition, when cash flows were modeled assuming a shorter
default timing pattern, reflecting the current weighted-average
life of 3.23 years, the class E notes could withstand stresses
consistent with their current rating level. Therefore, S&P affirmed
its 'BB (sf)' rating on the class E notes.
For the class F notes, S&P's credit and cash flow analysis indicate
that the available credit enhancement could withstand stresses
commensurate with a lower rating. It therefore applied its 'CCC'
rating criteria, and considered the following key factors:
-- The tranche's available credit enhancement, which is in the
same range as that of other CLOs we have rated and that have
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- Assuming full pay down of current cash proceeds, S&P's model
generated BDR at the 'B-' rating level of 16.22% (for a portfolio
with a weighted-average life of 3.23 years), versus if it was to
consider a long-term sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 3.23
years, which would result in a target default rate of 10.34%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
tranche defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
Having considered the above, S&P affirmed its 'B- (sf)' rating on
the class F notes.
The transaction's exposure to country risk is limited at the
assigned ratings, as the exposure to individual sovereigns does not
exceed the diversification thresholds outlined in S&P's structured
finance sovereign risk criteria.
Counterparty, operational, and legal risks are adequately mitigated
in line with its criteria.
Bain Capital Euro CLO 2019-1 DAC is a European cash flow CLO
transaction that securitizes loans granted to primarily
speculative-grade corporate firms.
The transaction is managed by Bain Capital Credit U.S. CLO Manager,
LLC.
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating on F-RR Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Fidelity Grand Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC
reset notes expected ratings. The assignment of final ratings is
contingent on the receipt of final documents conforming to
information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
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Fidelity Grand
Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC
A-RR XS3176731241 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B-RR XS3176731597 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C-RR XS3176731837 LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D-RR XS3176732058 LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E-RR XS3176732215 LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F-RR XS3176732488 LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Sub Notes-RR XS3176732728 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Fidelity Grand Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC is a securitisation of mainly
senior secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of
corporate rescue loans, senior unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien
loans and high-yield bonds. Net proceeds from the note issue will
be used to redeem the existing notes and to fund a portfolio with a
target size of EUR400 million. The portfolio manager is Fidelity
CLO Advisers LP. The collateralised loan obligation will have a
4.5-year reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted average life
(WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 25.3.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio will comprise senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 62.5%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction will include
concentration limits in the portfolio, including a top 10 obligor
concentration limit at 22.5% and a maximum exposure to the
three-largest Fitch-defined industries at 40%. These covenants
ensure that the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction will have a
4.5-year reinvestment period and include reinvestment criteria
similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's analysis
is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim of testing the
robustness of the transaction structure against its covenants and
portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL
covenant at the issue date, to account for the strict reinvestment
conditions envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment
period. These include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch
'CCC' bucket limitation test after reinvestment, and a WAL covenant
that gradually steps down over time, both before and after the end
of the reinvestment period. Fitch believes these conditions would
reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress
periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no rating impact on the class A-RR notes, lead
to a downgrade of two notches each for the class B-RR and C-RR
notes, of one notch each for the class D-RR and E-RR notes, and to
below 'B-sf' for the class F-RR notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The rated notes
each have a rating cushion of up to two notches, due to the better
metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than the
Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of four notches
each for the class B-RR and C-RR notes, three notches each for the
class A-RR and D-RR notes, and to below 'B-sf' for the class E-RR
and F-RR notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR at
all rating levels would result in upgrades of up to four notches,
except for the 'AAAsf' rated notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period, except for the 'AAAsf' notes, may result from
stable portfolio credit quality and deleveraging, leading to higher
credit enhancement and excess spread available to cover losses in
the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Fidelity Grand
Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG
relevance scores in connection with the credit rating of a
transaction, programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose
any ESG factor that is a key rating driver in the key rating
drivers section of the relevant rating action commentary.
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B-' Rating on FRR Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to
Fidelity Grand Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC's class A-R-R to F-R-R
European cash flow CLO notes. At closing, the issuer will have
unrated subordinated notes outstanding from the existing
transaction and will issue additional notes at closing.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
that closed in September 2022. The existing classes of notes will
be fully redeemed with the proceeds from the issuance of the
replacement notes on the reset date.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes and loan will pay
quarterly interest unless a frequency switch event occurs.
Following this, the notes and loan will permanently switch to
semi-annual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period ends approximately 4.5 years
after closing, and its non-call period ends 1.5 years after
closing.
The preliminary ratings reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes and loan through collateral
selection, ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which S&P expects to be
bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which S&P expects to be
in line with its counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,748.66
Default rate dispersion 558.80
Weighted-average life (years) 4.79
Obligor diversity measure 114.69
Industry diversity measure 19.37
Regional diversity measure 1.23
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.16
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 37.18
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.80
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 3.26
Rationale
S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings reflect our assessment of the
collateral portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average
rating of 'B'. We expect the portfolio to be well-diversified,
primarily comprising broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior
secured term loans and senior secured bonds. Therefore, we have
conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by applying our
criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period in April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes and loan. This test looks at
the total amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as
established by the initial cash flows for each rating, and it
compares that with the current portfolio's default potential plus
par losses to date. As a result, until the end of the reinvestment
period, the collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, as long as the initial ratings
are maintained.
"Following the end of the reinvestment period, certain assets can
be substituted as long as they meet the reinvestment criteria. In
our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread (3.70%), the
covenanted weighted-average coupon (3.25%), and the actual
weighted-average recovery rates at all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R-R to E-R-R notes benefits from
break-even default rate and scenario default rate cushions that we
would typically consider commensurate with higher ratings than
those assigned. However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment
phase, during which the transaction's credit risk profile could
deteriorate, we have capped our ratings assigned to the notes and
loan.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we expect
the transaction's exposure to country risk to be sufficiently
mitigated at the assigned preliminary ratings.
"At closing we expect the transaction's documented counterparty
replacement and remedy mechanisms to adequately mitigate its
exposure to counterparty risk under our current counterparty
criteria.
"We expect the transaction's legal structure and framework to be
bankruptcy remote. The issuer is expected to be a special-purpose
entity that meets our criteria for bankruptcy remoteness.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our preliminary ratings
are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the
class A-R-R to F-R-R notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-R-R to E-R-R notes based
on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R-R notes."
The transaction securitizes a portfolio of primarily senior secured
leveraged loans and bonds. The transaction will be managed by
Fidelity CLO Advisers LP.
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Ratings
Prelim Prelim amount Credit Indicative
Class rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) interest rate§
A-R-R AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 3mE +1.32%
B-R-R AA (sf) 44.00 27.00 3mE +1.85%
C-R-R A (sf) 24.00 21.00 3mE +2.25%
D-R-R BBB- (sf) 28.00 14.00 3mE +3.00%
E-R-R BB- (sf) 18.00 9.50 3mE +5.10%
F-R-R B- (sf) 12.00 6.50 3mE +8.10%
Sub. Notes NR 34.95 N/A N/A
*The preliminary ratings assigned to the class A-R-R, and B-R-R
notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The
preliminary ratings assigned to the class C-R-R to F-R-R notes
address ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semi-annual and the index
switches to six-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) when a
frequency switch event occurs.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
3mE--Three-month EURIBOR.
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: S&P Assigns Prelim. B-(sf) Rating on F-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to
Hayfin Emerald CLO VI DAC's class X, A-R, B-1-R, B-2-R, C-R, D-R,
E-R, and F-R notes. At closing, the issuer will have unrated
subordinated notes outstanding from the existing transaction and
will not issue additional subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction.
The existing classes of notes will be fully redeemed with the
proceeds from the issuance of the replacement notes.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs, upon which the
notes pay semiannually.
This transaction has a one-year non-call period, and the
portfolio's reinvestment period will end three years after
closing.
The preliminary ratings assigned to the reset notes reflect S&P's
assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which S&P expects to be
bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which S&P expects to be
in line with its counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings weighted-average rating factor 2,601.76
Default rate dispersion 711.89
Weighted-average life (years) 4.08
Obligor diversity measure 124.48
Industry diversity measure 17.05
Regional diversity measure 1.20
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 403.17
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 9.98
Number of performing obligors 163
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.48
'AAA' actual portfolio weighted-average recovery (%) 37.39
Actual weighted-average spread (%) 3.57
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 2.96
Rating rationale
S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings reflect our assessment of the
collateral portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average
rating of 'B'. We expect that the portfolio will primarily comprise
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds on the effective date. Therefore, we conducted our credit and
cash flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR397.18 million par
amount, calculated as the sum of the EUR393.18 million performing
balance and the recovery value of defaulted assets. We also used
the actual weighted-average spread (3.57%), the actual
weighted-average coupon (2.96%), and the actual portfolio
weighted-average recovery rates for all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"We expect the transaction's documented counterparty replacement
and remedy mechanisms to adequately mitigate its exposure to
counterparty risk under our counterparty criteria.
"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk to
be limited at the assigned preliminary ratings, as the exposure to
individual sovereigns does not exceed the diversification
thresholds outlined in our criteria.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on Oct. 15, 2028, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as established by
the initial cash flows for each rating, and it compares that with
the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date.
As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"We expect the transaction's legal structure to be bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"The operational risk associated with key transaction parties (such
as the collateral manager) that provide an essential service to the
issuer is in line with our operational risk criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicate that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-1-R to E-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher preliminary ratings than those
assigned. However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase,
during which the transaction's credit risk profile could
deteriorate, we capped our assigned preliminary ratings on the
notes. The class X and A-R notes can withstand stresses
commensurate with the assigned preliminary ratings.
"For the class F-R notes, our credit and cash flow analysis
indicate that the available credit enhancement could withstand
stresses commensurate with a lower rating. However, we have applied
our 'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a 'B- (sf)' rating on this
class of notes."
The ratings uplift for the class F-R notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 21.66% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 4.08 years), versus if it was to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.08 years, which would result
in a target default rate of 13.06%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
note defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-R notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class X to E-R notes based on
four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Hayfin Emerald CLO VI is a European cash flow CLO securitization of
a revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued by speculative-grade borrowers. Hayfin Emerald
Management LLP will manage the transaction.
Ratings
Prelim Prelim amount Credit Indicative
Class rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) interest rate§
X AAA (sf) 2.00 N/A Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 0.85
A-R AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.25
B-1-R AA (sf) 28.40 28.40 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.95
B-2-R AA (sf) 10.00 28.40 4.55
C-R A (sf) 24.00 22.40 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.40
D-R BBB- (sf) 29.60 15.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.20
E-R BB- (sf) 16.80 10.80 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.90
F-R B- (sf) 13.20 7.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.00
Sub. Notes NR 35.80 N/A N/A
*The preliminary ratings assigned to the class X, A-R, B-1-R, and
B-2-R notes address timely interest and ultimate principal
payments. The ratings assigned to the class C-R, D-R, E-R, and F-R
notes address ultimate interest and principal payments.
§Solely for modeling purposes as the actual spreads may vary at
pricing. The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
TAURUS 2021-2 SP: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on EUR23.3MM E Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the ratings of five classes of Notes
issued by Taurus 2021-2 SP DAC:
EUR71.7M (Current outstanding amount EUR43.1M) Class A Notes,
Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2025 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)
EUR9.4M (Current outstanding amount EUR6.1M) Class B Notes,
Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2025 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)
EUR8M (Current outstanding amount EUR5.2M) Class C Notes, Affirmed
A3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2025 Affirmed A3 (sf)
EUR20.5M (Current outstanding amount EUR13.4M) Class D Notes,
Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2025 Affirmed Baa3 (sf)
EUR23.3M (Current outstanding amount EUR15.2M) Class E Affirmed
Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2025 Affirmed Ba3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of the rating of Class A Notes follows Moody's
recents upgrade of Spain's government bond rating and the increase
of Spain's country ceiling to Aaa from Aa1. One of the factors
leading to the upgrade was the strengthening of the Spanish banking
sector. Given the concentrated exposure to a single loan, concerns
regarding the banking sector's condition were one of the factors in
constraining the ratings of the Class A and Class B Notes to four
notches above Spain's government bond rating. Given the stronger
banking sector and the increased country ceiling, the ratings are
no longer constrained by country risk. However, the rating on the
Class A Notes remains constrained by the size of the liquidity
facility, which is not consistent with a Aaa rating. As a result,
the rating on the Class A Notes is affirmed at Aa3 (sf).
The affirmation of the ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D,
and Class E Notes is supported by the continued overall stability
of the underlying portfolio since the last rating affirmation,
together with a persistently elevated vacancy rate of currently
21.4% and the uncertainty of repayment at the extended loan
maturity in September 2027, following the failure to repay the loan
at its original maturity date in September 2024.
Moody's loan to value ratio of the securitized loan is 61.0%
compared to a reported 48.9% based on a reported valuation as of
October 2024.
Taurus 2021-2 SP DAC is a single borrower transaction secured by
six office properties located around Madrid in Spain. The loan
sponsor is Starwood Capital Group.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "EMEA
Commercial Mortgage-backed Securitisations" published in June
2025.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings are generally (i) a decline in the property values backing
the underlying loan, (ii) an increase in default risk assessment,
(iii) changes to the ratings of some transaction counterparties;
and (iv) given the exposure to Spain an increase in sovereign
risk.
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings are generally (i) an increase in the property values
backing the underlying loan and (ii) a decrease in the default
probability driven by improving loan performance or decrease in
refinancing risk.
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
AMMEGA GROUP: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Negative
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Dutch belting producer
Ammega Group B.V. to negative from stable and affirmed its 'B-'
ratings on the company and its term loan B (TLB). The recovery
rating on the TLB remains at '3' (rounded estimate: 50%).
The negative outlook reflects that S&P could lower its rating on
Ammega within the next 12 months if the expected end-market
recovery doesn't yield the anticipated improvement in the company's
earnings and cash flow, and its FFO cash interest coverage ratio
stays below 1.5x and its FOCF remains negative.
Ammega Group B.V.'s earnings and cash flows remain challenged by
slower-than-expected recovery of its underlying end markets, and
although we forecast that Ammega's operating performance and credit
metrics will improve in 2025 versus the subdued levels reported in
2024, they will remain below our thresholds for the 'B-' rating,
with funds from operations (FFO) interest coverage still below 1.5x
and negative free operating cash flow (FOCF).
Ammega's gradual improvement in credit metrics will be key to
restore rating headroom. Lower-than-expected profitability in 2024
resulted in adjusted leverage reaching 11.4x. This is higher than
our previous expectation of leverage reducing to about 8x. The
leverage increase stems from prolonged soft economic conditions in
the global belting market, as well as destocking effects in
distribution channels due to pre-buying effects in from 2022 and
2023, when supply chains were constrained. This impacted global
demand for Ammega's products, as well as the company's performance.
S&P said, "We now expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of
EUR150 million-EUR160 million for 2025 and EUR165 million-EUR185
million for 2026, which should lead to FFO cash interest coverage
of about 1.3x in 2025 and about 1.5x in 2026, which we consider
weak levels for the current rating. We also forecast that our
adjusted leverage will decrease to approximately 9.6x-10.0x in 2025
and further to 8.6x-9.0x in 2026 on the back of increasing revenue
and higher profitability."
Additionally, the negative outlook reflects that Ammega generated
negative FOCF of about EUR38 million in 2024, which is
significantly less than our previous expectation of positive EUR15
million-EUR20 million, primarily due to lower-than-expected
profitability, cost reductions, and high cash interest expenses,
but partly offset by lower capital expenditure (capex). S&P said,
"We expect the company to keep the capex level flat in the next two
years at about EUR25 million to further support the cash flow
generation. That said, we forecast that FOCF generation will
somewhat improve but remain negative in 2025, before turning
slightly positive in 2026 on the back of improving profitability
and slightly lower cash-paying interest."
Ammega's operating performance relies on better market conditions
and execution of its cost-saving program. In 2024, Ammega's revenue
declined by about 7% to about EUR954 million. In the first half of
2025, Ammega reported a revenue decline of 2.2% year on year,
mainly driven by a decrease in the Americas and Asia-Pacific
regions due to current uncertainties and delay in investment
decisions. Starting in the second half, we expect a notable
increase in demand leading revenue to increase by about 3% in 2025
and 1%-2% in 2026 due to our expectation of gradually improving
end-market dynamics, higher investment spending, and restocking in
distribution channels. The increase is also supported by high level
of replacement and service revenue, which accounts for more than
two-thirds of total revenue. S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA
margin is expected to increase by about 200 basis points in 2025
and 2026 year on year, supported by growing volumes, pricing
measures, and benefits from ongoing cost-saving measures. That
said, our adjusted EBITDA margins for Ammega should improve to
15.5%-16.0% in 2025 and 17.0%-18.0% in 2026.
S&P said, "We still assess Ammega's liquidity position as adequate,
supported by its long-dated debt maturity profile. Ammega's TLB2
amounting to EUR966 million and TLB3 amounting to EUR250 million
both mature in December 2028 and the revolving credit facility
(RCF) is due in June 2028.
"We believe the direct impact of trade tariffs on Ammega's earnings
will be limited. Approximately 40% of Ammega's revenue is generated
in the Americas, with an established manufacturing footprint in the
U.S., enabling a local-for-local production model. Thus, the
company's exposure to tariff-related costs is constrained across
three key areas. First, raw materials directly imported and subject
to tariffs represent a negligible portion of total material costs.
Second, finished product imports from Europe are relatively small,
totaling to a single-digit million-dollar value annually. Finally,
exports from China to the U.S. not material to the company's
overall financial performance. Consequently, we view Ammega's
tariff exposure as manageable and unlikely to significantly affect
our credit assessment.
"The negative outlook indicates that we could lower our rating on
Ammega within the next 12 months if the company is unable to
improve its operating performance due to a prolonged challenging
operating environment, persistent high exceptional costs, or a
failure to realize anticipated cost-savings benefits, translating
into its FFO cash interest coverage remaining below 1.5x or its
FOCF staying negative.
"We could lower our rating on Ammega if the company fails to
demonstrate a gradual improvement in operating performance as
expected in our base case, despite challenging market conditions.
This could materialize if Ammega's adjusted FFO cash interest
coverage stays below 1.5x or if its FOCF stays negative. We could
also lower our rating if Ammega's liquidity position weakens.
"We could revise the outlook to stable if Ammega's operating
performance strengthens, with sustained positive FOCF and FFO cash
coverage improving above 1.5x."
MILA 2025-1: Moody's Assigns Ba1 Rating to 2 Tranches
-----------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned the following definitive ratings to
Notes issued by Mila 2025-1 B.V.:
EUR264M Class A asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR9M Class B asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR7.5M Class C asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned A1 (sf)
EUR12M Class D asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2 (sf)
EUR4.5M Class E asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)
EUR3M Class F asset-backed notes 2025 due December 2042,
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned rating to the EUR4.5M Class X notes 2025
due December 2042, which are also issued at the closing of the
transaction.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The transaction is a 12-month revolving cash securitisation of
unsecured consumer loans extended by Lender & Spender B.V. (not
rated) to obligors in the Netherlands. The originator will also act
as the servicer of the portfolio during the life of the
transaction.
As of September 29, 2025, the portfolio of EUR286M shows 100%
performing contracts with a weighted average seasoning of around 6
months. The portfolio consists of fixed rate amortizing loans
(100%) which have equal instalments during the life of the loan. At
closing, the portfolio of EUR286M is below the total collateralized
Note size of EUR300M, the remaining proceeds from the Notes
issuance will remain within the Issuer and will be used to purchase
additional receivables in compliance with the replenishment
criteria during the revolving period.
According to us, the transaction benefits from credit strengths
such as: (i) a granular portfolio, (ii) a simple product mix with a
portfolio of amortizing fixed rate loan products, and (iii) a
significant level of excess spread at closing. Furthermore, the
Notes benefit from a cash reserve funded at closing at 1.5% of the
initial Notes balance of the Class A to F Notes. The reserve will
mainly provide liquidity to pay senior expenses, hedging costs and
the coupon on the Class A to E Notes.
However, Moody's notes that the transaction features some credit
weaknesses such as: (i) a small and unrated originator, (ii) a
revolving period of 12 months, (iii) a pro rata principal
repayments of the Class A to F Notes, and (iv) a risk of potential
servicing disruption mitigated by the presence of Trustmoore SFCM
Netherlands B.V. as back-up servicer facilitator.
Moody's analysis focused, among other factors, on: (1) an
evaluation of the underlying portfolio of financing agreements, (2)
the macroeconomic environment, (3) historical performance
information, (4) the credit enhancement provided by subordination,
cash reserve and excess spread, (5) the liquidity support available
in the transaction through the reserve fund, and (6) the legal and
structural integrity of the transaction.
MAIN MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected defaults of
2.5%, a recovery rate of 15.0% and Aaa portfolio credit enhancement
("PCE") of 16.0% related to the receivables. The expected defaults
and recoveries capture Moody's expectations of performance
considering the current economic outlook, while the PCE captures
the loss Moody's expects the portfolio to suffer in the event of a
severe recession scenario. Expected defaults, recoveries and PCE
are parameters used by us to calibrate Moody's lognormal portfolio
loss distribution curve and to associate a probability with each
potential future loss scenario in the ABSROM cash flow model to
rate Consumer ABS.
Portfolio expected defaults of 2.5% are better than the EMEA
Consumer ABS average and are based on Moody's assessments of the
lifetime expectation for the pool taking into account: (i)
historical performance of the loan book of the originator, (ii)
benchmark transactions, and (iii) other qualitative considerations,
such as the revolving period.
Portfolio expected recoveries of 15.0% are in line with the EMEA
Consumer ABS average and are based on Moody's assessments of the
lifetime expectation for the pool taking into account: (i)
historical performance of the loan book of the originator, (ii)
benchmark transactions, and (iii) other qualitative
considerations.
PCE of 16.0% is in line with the EMEA Consumer ABS average and is
based on: (i) Moody's assessments of the borrower credit, (ii) the
replenishment period of the transaction, and (iii) benchmark
transactions. The PCE level of 16.0% results in an implied
coefficient of variation ("CoV") of 58%.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Consumer Loan-Backed ABS" published in July
2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings include
significantly better than expected performance of the pool together
with an increase in credit enhancement of the Notes.
Factors that may cause a downgrade of the ratings include a decline
in the overall performance of the portfolio and a meaningful
deterioration of the credit profile of the originator and servicer
Lender & Spender B.V.
ORSINI HOLDCO: S&P Assigns Preliminary 'B' Rating, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary 'B' rating to Orsini
Holdco B.V. -- the parent of HSO -- and its debt.
The stable outlook is based on S&P's expectation that HSO will
maintain organic revenue growth of over 10% a year, while
maintaining broadly stable margins. S&P anticipates that in 2026
adjusted debt to EBITDA will decrease to about 5.0x and adjusted
EBITDA cash interest coverage will be 2.0x-3.0x.
Bain Capital plans to finance its acquisition of HSO, a leading
Microsoft Dynamics software integrator, using a proposed debt
package that includes a EUR430 million first-lien term loan B,
EUR100 million multicurrency revolving credit facility (RCF), and
EUR80 million first-lien delayed draw term loan. Under Bain's
ownership, S&P anticipates that HSO's financial policy will be more
aggressive and that its capital structure will be highly leveraged,
with an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage ratio of 5.7x in
2025.
HSO has been able to harness its strong technical and industry
capabilities, and its privileged relationship with Microsoft, to
capitalize on positive market developments. That said, the market
is fragmented and HSO is smaller than some of its competitors,
which operate globally and are better capitalized. The company
concentrates on a single vendor and has relatively low recurring
revenue due to its reliance on project-based operations.
The 'B' preliminary rating reflects HSO's highly leveraged capital
structure following its acquisition by private equity firm Bain
Capital. S&P said, "We anticipate that leverage will spike to 5.7x
in 2025, from 1.7x in 2024, following the proposed issuance of a
EUR430 million first-lien term loan B to finance the transaction.
Thereafter, we project that adjusted debt to EBITDA will gradually
drop below 5x by 2027." The proposed debt package also includes a
EUR100 million multicurrency RCF, a EUR80 million first-lien
delayed draw term loan, and EUR25 million in preference shares.
S&P said, "We expect HSO to achieve robust revenue growth of 13.5%
in 2025 and 10% in 2026-2027, fueled by the acquisition of new
customers and by cross-selling opportunities with existing
customers. We forecast that our adjusted EBITDA margin for HSO will
remain stable, at about 18%, over the next three years. Although
personnel expenses will increase, this is likely to be offset by
operating leverage and price increases.
"At 18%, HSO's margins significantly exceed those of its IT
services peers; this, combined with its asset light operations and
low working capital intensity, supports our view that free
operating cash flow (FOCF) generation will be solid. HSO's IT
services peers include Lutech SpA, which has an adjusted EBITDA
margin of 10%; Devoteam Group SAS (11%); UST Holdings Ltd.
(10%-12%); and Capgemini SE (15%). We attribute HSO's stronger
margins to its solid positioning as one of the leading system
integrators for Microsoft products--this boosts its pricing power
in its niche market. In addition, HSO's marketing expenses are
relatively low. A significant proportion of its contracts are
awarded following a recommendation from Microsoft followed by a
tender process, which reduces its client acquisition expenses.
HSO's business model as a services company features low capital
expenditure (about 1% of annual sales), and limited working capital
outflows (about 2%) because the company is paid throughout the life
cycle of the projects to which it contributes. Therefore, we
forecast that HSO will generate annual FOCF of EUR30 million in
2025-2026 and EUR40 million in 2027."
HSO has a niche focus on project-based services with low recurring
revenue and faces competition from significantly larger and better
capitalized firms in a fragmented market. HSO generated revenue of
EUR440 million in 2024, including contributions from its bolt-on
acquisitions. Some of its competitors are significantly larger and
more diversified within the IT services space--for example,
Accenture (revenue of EUR59 billion in 2024), Capgemini (EUR20
billion), and Wipro (EUR10 billion). All of these firms have more
capital than HSO, which strengthens their ability to withstand
potential market volatility. Furthermore, HSO also competes with
regional players and operates in a fragmented market. HSO's
recurring revenue is about 25%, lower than most of its tech peers,
which limits its revenue visibility over the medium term.
That said, HSO has a leading position as a Microsoft software
integrator thanks to its strong technical and industry
capabilities. It has over 30 years of experience across multiple
sectors and industries, and operates across various geographies.
Thus, it differentiates itself from larger competitors through its
expertise with the Microsoft Dynamics 365's product suite and
related services, which it has demonstrated by its completion of
complex global projects. At the same time, it can distinguish
itself from regional players by its global presence, which has
enabled it to become one of the leading Microsoft Dynamics partners
globally.
HSO's strong record of growth and successful international
expansion stems from its privileged relationship with Microsoft.
HSO grew by 20% a year, on average, between 2020 and 2024. Most of
its growth has been organic and it has successfully expanded
internationally, evolving from a Netherlands-based company to a
geographically balanced group. HSO has been a member of Microsoft's
Inner Circle for almost 20 years and is a member of Microsoft's
Advisory Council. This gives it access to key decision-makers and
constitutes a competitive advantage against smaller players.
HSO is well positioned to capture growth arising from positive
market developments such as cloud migration, process automation,
and AI. S&P said, "We expect HSO's addressable markets to grow by
about 9% per year until 2029, driven by customer demand for
operational automation and cloud environment migration. This, in
turn, will enable the implementation of AI agents within workflows.
Microsoft's strong record of growth supports our view that HSO is
well-positioned to capitalize on these market trends. We expect HSO
to grow slightly faster than the market average by combining the
acquisition of new customers with cross-selling Microsoft solutions
to its existing customer base."
S&P said, "Our preliminary rating also reflects HSO's private
equity ownership, which will likely limit any meaningful and
sustainable reduction in leverage. Although we think HSO has the
capability to organically reduce leverage below 5x over the next
couple of years, its financial policy may constrain the pace of any
deleveraging. The company may pursue acquisitions that will support
its growth opportunities and ownership by private equity firm Bain
Capital could mean a more-aggressive policy on shareholder
remuneration.
"The stable outlook is based on our expectation that HSO will
maintain organic revenue growth of over 10% a year, while
maintaining broadly stable margins. We anticipate that, in 2026,
adjusted debt to EBITDA will decrease to about 5.0x and adjusted
EBITDA cash interest coverage will be 2.0x-3.0x.
"We could lower the ratings if adjusted debt to EBITDA increased
above 7.0x, or if adjusted EBITDA cash interest coverage decreased
below 2.0x. This could occur if HSO undertakes a material
debt-funded acquisition or aggressive shareholder distributions.
Although unlikely, it could also occur if HSO's relationship with
Microsoft were to deteriorate, so that its revenue growth and
market position weakened.
"We could raise the rating if HSO maintained adjusted debt to
EBITDA at 5.0x or below and adjusted EBITDA cash interest coverage
above 3.0x, while adhering to a financial policy in line with these
metrics."
===========
N O R W A Y
===========
AUTOMATE INTERMEDIATE II: Moody's Hikes CFR to Ba2, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded Automate Intermediate Holdings II
S.a.r.l.'s (AutoStore) corporate family rating to Ba2 from Ba3 and
its probability of default rating to Ba2-PD from Ba3-PD. The
ratings of its senior secured bank credit facilities remain
unchanged; Moody's expects to withdraw these instrument ratings
following the completion of the refinancing. The outlook remains
stable.
AutoStore's instrument ratings, including its Ba3 senior secured
revolving credit facility and senior secured term loan B ratings
with a stable outlook have been reviewed in the rating committee
and remain unchanged. Moody's expects to withdraw the instrument
ratings following the refinancing.
"A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
issuer(s) has been conducted during a rating committee."
RATINGS RATIONALE
The CFR upgrade reflects Moody's expectations that, following the
refinancing and partial repayment of its senior secured term loans,
AutoStore will meet Moody's upgrade guidance, including leverage
with Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA below 2.0x and Moody's adjusted
free cash flow to debt above 15%. These metrics signal a meaningful
improvement in the company's financial profile and support the
higher rating.
AutoStore continues to benefit from solid demand for automated
warehousing solutions, driven by its end customers' need for
efficiency and space optimization. However, broader macroeconomic
uncertainty has tempered revenue growth in recent quarters and may
continue to affect the company in the next 12 months.
AutoStore's recent financial performance has been mixed, with
declines in revenue and margin. The margin decline was partly due
to a one-time inventory write-down, as well as $10–12 million in
transformation initiatives, primarily related to headcount
reductions. These costs were partially offset by the exclusion of
Ocado Group plc litigation expenses, which had been added back in
prior periods.
AutoStore's Ba2 CFR reflects its strong competitive position in a
rapidly expanding niche market for warehouse automation technology.
The company benefits from scalable operations that allow it to grow
efficiently, with relatively low costs associated with expansion.
Its geographic and customer diversification further supports its
resilience, enabling it to serve a broad range of end-users across
different regions.
Despite these credit strengths, AutoStore's ratings also considers
several credit challenges. The company's scale remains moderate,
even though it is growing quickly. Its business model is largely
based on one-off system sales, which limits recurring revenue and
exposes it to fluctuations in economic cycles. Additionally,
AutoStore relies heavily on its intellectual property and on a
limited group of partners, which are key to its distribution model
and create some concentration risk.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Moody's views governance as one of the key considerations for the
rating action, including AutoStore's expected material paydown of
its debt with cash on hand as part of the refinancing transaction,
as well as the company's track record of maintaining ample
liquidity.
LIQUIDITY
Liquidity remains very good, supported by strong cash generation
and access to committed credit facilities. This track record has
been a key factor in the company's resilience through market
cycles.
AutoStore has received commitments to underwrite new bank
facilities totaling $500 million to refinance an equivalent of $450
million Term loan B due July 2026. The new facilities are currently
being syndicated among bank participants on a private basis.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that AutoStore
will maintain its improved credit metrics and liquidity profile
over the next 12–18 months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
A rating upgrade would require a substantial increase in
AutoStore's scale and higher share of recurring revenues. A rating
upgrade would also require Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA to decrease
sustainably from the current level (pro forma for refinancing),
Moody's-adjusted free cash Flow/debt to be sustained above 25% and
for AutoStore's liquidity to remain very good.
Moody's could downgrade the ratings if AutoStore fails to achieve
organic revenue growth over the medium term, the order book
substantially decreases or profitability deteriorates. A downgrade
could result from an increase in Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA above
2.0x on a sustained basis, Moody's-adjusted free cash flow/debt
sustainably decreasing below 15% or any deterioration in
liquidity.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
Founded in 1996 and headquartered in Nedre Vats, Norway, AutoStore
is a market-leading software and robotics company that provides
automation technology to warehouse and distribution facilities.
With around 1,650 installations in 58 countries, AutoStore is the
world's fastest-growing warehouse system. During the year ended
December 31, 2024, AutoStore generated $601 million of revenue and
a company-adjusted EBITDA of $283 million.
The company is listed on the Euronext Oslo stock exchange with its
largest shareholders being the investment firm SoftBank Group Corp.
and private equity firm Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. On September
30, 2025, the company's market capitalisation was around NOK33
billion, equivalent to about $3.3 billion.
===========
R U S S I A
===========
IPOTEKA-BANK: Fitch Rates USD300MM & UZS1.2TT Unsec. Notes 'BB'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Joint-Stock Commercial Mortgage Bank
Ipoteka-Bank's (Ipoteka) USD300 million 6.45% senior unsecured
notes due October 9, 2030 and UZS1.2 trillion 17.50% senior
unsecured notes due October 9, 2028 final ratings of 'BB'.
The assignment of the final ratings follows the receipt of
documents conforming to information already received. The final
ratings are the same as the expected ratings.
Key Rating Drivers
The notes' ratings are in line with Ipoteka's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (LTFC IDR) of 'BB', as they
represent unconditional, senior unsecured obligations of the bank,
which rank pari passu with its other senior unsecured obligations.
For the soum-denominated bonds, the coupon payments and principal
repayment are required to be made in US dollars at the average of
the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's USD/UZS exchange rate over the
five business days ending four business days before each settlement
date.
The issue terms do not contain an option allowing Ipoteka to make
settlements on the bonds in soum. Fitch would therefore treat a
situation when the bank is unable to meet its US dollar obligations
on the soum-denominated bonds (whether for issuer-specific reasons
or because of broader transfer or convertibility restrictions) as
an event of default. fITCH also highlights the soum-denominated
bonds' embedded market risk from the perspective of US dollar
investors.
Ipoteka's 'BB' LTFC IDR reflects Fitch's assessment of potential
support from the bank's majority shareholder, OTP Bank Plc., as
captured by its 'bb' Shareholder Support Rating. This view is based
on the bank's majority ownership by OTP, the strategic relevance of
the Uzbek market to the group, and the relatively low cost of
potential support, given Ipoteka's modest contribution to group
assets (end-1H25: 3%). Ipoteka is included in OTP's resolution
group which further reinforces the likelihood of parental support.
The terms of both notes include covenants that restrict Ipoteka
from engaging in mergers, asset sales, and affiliate transactions,
and require the maintenance of capital adequacy ratios above
regulatory thresholds, as well as the provision of periodic
financial disclosures. The notes also incorporate early redemption
features, permitting Ipoteka to redeem them at set periods before
maturity. Additionally, noteholders are provided with a put option
for redemption if both a change of control occurs, and an adverse
ratings event arises as a result of the change of control.
For more details on Ipoteka's ratings see Fitch's rating action
commentary dated 24 September 2025 ('Fitch Affirms Ipoteka-Bank at
'BB'; Outlook Stable').
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The senior unsecured debt ratings could be downgraded if Ipoteka's
LTFC IDR was downgraded.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The senior unsecured debt ratings could be upgraded if Ipoteka's
LTFC IDR was upgraded.
Date of Relevant Committee
23-Sep-2025
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
Ipoteka's IDRs are driven by potential support from OTP.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Joint-Stock Commercial
Mortgage Bank Ipoteka-Bank
senior unsecured LT BB New Rating BB(EXP)
===============
S L O V E N I A
===============
GORENJSKA BANKA: S&P Rates Proposed EUR50MM Tier 2 Sub. Notes 'B+'
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B+' issue-level rating to the
proposed EUR50 million Tier 2 nondeferrable, subordinated notes
issued by Slovenia-based Gorenjska Banka d.d. (GB; BB+/Stable/--).
The rating is subject to our review of the final issuance
documentation.
In accordance with S&P's criteria for hybrid capital instruments,
the 'B+' issue rating reflects its analysis of the proposed
instrument and its assessment of GB's 'bb+' stand-alone credit
profile (SACP).
The issue rating is three notches below the SACP, due to the
following deductions:
-- Two notches because of the notes' contractual subordination
with respect to the bank's senior obligations and the 'bb+'
starting point of GB; and
-- One notch because the notes contain a statutory loss absorption
feature with write-down or conversion of claims, which could be
triggered at the "point of non-viability" of GB through declaration
by the competent authorities responsible for the resolution of the
bank.
S&P said, "When evaluating the instrument, we believe there are no
additional nonpayment risks that would justify the deduction of
additional notches to those noted above.
"We understand that the instrument will be eligible as Tier 2
regulatory capital for GB. However, given the notes' lack of
going-concern loss absorption, we do not include them in our
calculation of the bank's total adjusted capital. Instead, it is
eligible for GB's additional loss-absorbing capacity (ALAC), which
was 2.4% of S&P Global Ratings risk-weighted assets at year-end
2024 and well below the relevant threshold of 4.0% for ALAC
uplift."
=========
S P A I N
=========
SANTANDER CONSUMER 2025-1: Fitch Rates Class E Notes 'BB+'
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2025-1,
Fondo de Titulización final ratings as listed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Santander Consumer
Spain Auto 2025-1, FT
Class A1 ES0305923007 LT AAAsf New Rating AAA(EXP)sf
Class A2 ES0305923015 LT AAAsf New Rating AAA(EXP)sf
Class B ES0305923023 LT AAsf New Rating AA(EXP)sf
Class C ES0305923031 LT A-sf New Rating A-(EXP)sf
Class D ES0305923049 LT BBBsf New Rating BBB(EXP)sf
Class E ES0305923056 LT BB+sf New Rating BB+(EXP)sf
Transaction Summary
Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2025-1, FT is a securitisation of
fully amortising vehicle loans originated in Spain by Santander
Consumer Finance, S.A. (SCF; A/Stable/F1) to Spanish residents. SCF
is ultimately owned by Banco Santander, S.A. (A/Stable/F1). The
portfolio comprises new and used car loans, and motorcycle loans.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Blended Asset Assumptions: Fitch has set default and recovery rates
for each product separately to reflect the different performance
expectations and considering SCF's historical data, Spain's
economic outlook and the originator's underwriting and servicing
strategies. For the pool, Fitch calibrated a blended base-case
lifetime default rate of 6.6% and a base case recovery rate of
58.9%, reflecting the larger exposure to new car loans (52.3% in
volume terms) compared with used car (38.4%) and motorcycle (9.3%)
loans.
Short Revolving Period: The deal has a short revolving period of
less than three months, until December 2025, in which new
receivables can be purchased by the special purpose vehicle. Fitch
considers any credit risk linked to the revolving period as
sufficiently captured by the default rate multiples and, therefore,
have not assumed a stressed portfolio in relation to the limits
permitted by the transaction covenants. Fitch estimates that about
6% of the portfolio balance will be replenished at the end of the
revolving period, assuming a prepayment rate of 8%.
Pro Rata Note Amortisation: The class A to D notes will be repaid
pro rata from the first payment date after the end of the revolving
period unless a sequential amortisation event occurs, mainly
defined in relation to portfolio performance metrics, such as a
principal deficiency ledger (PDL) or cumulative losses exceeding
certain thresholds. Fitch views these triggers as robust enough to
prevent the pro rata mechanism from continuing on early signs of
performance deterioration.
The tail risk posed by the pro rata pay-down is mitigated by the
mandatory switch to sequential amortisation when the portfolio
balance falls below 10% of the initial balance.
Payment Interruption Risk Mitigated: The cash reserve fund is
adequate to mitigate the payment interruption risk in a servicer
disruption. It is available to cover senior costs, net swap
payments (if any) and interest due on the collateralised notes over
three months, a period that is sufficient to implement an
alternative arrangement.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Long-term asset performance deterioration such as increased
delinquencies or reduced recoveries or portfolio yield
- Reduced excess spread and the late receipt of recovery cash
flows, for the class D notes, particularly towards the end of the
transaction's life. This considers the thin layer of credit
enhancement available to the class D notes, which is only provided
by a reserve fund.
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of increased defaults (class
A/B/C/D/E):
Increase default rates by 10%:
'AA+sf'/'AA-sf'/'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'
Increase default rates by 25%:
'AA+sf'/'A+sf'/'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB+sf'
Increase default rates by 50%:
'AA-sf'/'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BB+sf'
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of reduced recoveries (class
A/B/C/D/E):
Reduce recovery rates by 10%:
'AAAsf'/'AAsf'/'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'
Reduce recovery rates by 25%:
'AAAsf'/'A+sf'/'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB+sf'
Reduce recovery rates by 50%:
'AA+sf'/'Asf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB+sf'/'BB+sf'
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of increased defaults and
reduced recoveries (class A/B/C/D/E):
Increase default rates by 10% and reduce recovery rates by 10%:
'AA+sf'/'AA-sf'/'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB+sf'
Increase default rates by 25% and reduce recovery rates by 25%:
'AAsf'/'Asf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB+sf'/'BB+sf'
Increase default rates by 50% and reduce recovery rates by 50%:
'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'B-sf'/'BB+sf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The class A notes are rated at the highest level on Fitch's scale
and cannot be upgraded.
For the remaining class notes, increasing credit enhancement ratios
as the deal deleverages to fully compensate for the credit losses
and cash flow stresses commensurate with higher ratings will result
in upgrades:
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of reduced defaults and
increased recoveries (class A/B/C/D/E).
Reduce default rates by 25% and increase recovery rates by 25%:
'AAAsf'/'AAAsf'/'AAsf'/'A+sf'/'BB+sf'.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no
findings affecting the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small, targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and other information provided
to us about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for its analysis
according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it
is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
TENDAM BRANDS: Moody's Withdraws 'Ba3' Corporate Family Rating
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has withdrawn all the ratings of Tendam Brands
S.A.U. (Tendam or the company), including the Ba3 corporate family
rating and the Ba3-PD probability of default rating. Prior to
withdrawal, the outlook was stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's have decided to withdraw the rating(s) following a review
of the issuer's request to withdraw its rating(s).
COMPANY PROFILE
Tendam, headquartered in Madrid, Spain, is an international apparel
retailer with presence in more than 80 countries worldwide. The
company designs, sources, markets, sells and distributes
fashionable premium apparel for men and women at affordable
prices.
=====================
S W I T Z E R L A N D
=====================
VERISURE MIDHOLDING: Moody's Upgrades CFR to Ba1, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has the upgraded Verisure Midholding AB's
(Verisure) long-term corporate family rating to Ba1 from B1 and its
probability of default rating to Ba1-PD from B1-PD. At the same
time, Moody's upgraded the ratings of the backed senior secured
bank credit facilities and the backed senior secured notes issued
by Verisure Holding AB to Ba1 from B1. Furthermore, Moody's
upgraded the ratings of the senior unsecured notes issued by
Verisure Midholding AB to Ba3 from B3.
The outlook on both entities is stable, previously the ratings were
on review for upgrade. This rating action concludes the review for
upgrade that Moody's initiated on September 17, 2025.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade follows the completion of the company's initial public
offering (IPO) and the listing of its parent Verisure P.l.c. shares
on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange. The IPO raised EUR3.1 billion in
primary proceeds, with plans to use the majority of those funds to
repay about EUR2.8 billion of debt.
The upgrade follows the completion of Verisure's IPO, which
enhances the company's financial flexibility through access to
public equity markets, significantly reduces its leverage, and
improves its liquidity.
Moody's anticipates that the company's Moody's-adjusted
debt-to-EBITDA ratio will decrease to about 3.2x by the end of
2025, down from 5.3x in December 2024. Moody's expects leverage to
fall further to well below 3x over the next 18 months, driven by
continued earnings growth. This debt reduction should also enhance
the company's interest coverage metrics, with Moody's-adjusted
EBITA-to-interest that Moody's expects to exceed 6x within the next
18 months, compared to 2.4x in 2024. From 2026 onwards, Moody's
foresees the company generating positive Moody's adjusted free cash
flow, marking a turnaround from its history of consistently
producing negative free cash flow in recent years.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Governance is a key driver for the rating action given Verisure has
adopted a conservative financial policy following its IPO. The
company aims to reduce its net leverage to approximately 2.50x to
2.75x by the end of 2026, down from about 3.0x immediately
post-IPO, and plans to maintain net leverage around 2.5x
thereafter. Verisure intends to uphold a progressive dividend
policy, targeting ordinary dividend payouts of about 30 to 40 per
cent of adjusted net profit. The company plans to initiate its
dividend in the second half of 2026. In the medium term, it may
also return excess capital to shareholders through share buybacks
and special dividends, while consistently adhering to its 2.5x net
leverage target.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects the assumption that Verisure will
sustain strong operating performance, keep leverage within Moody's
guidance for the Ba1 rating category, and maintain good liquidity.
LIQUIDITY
Moody's considers the company's liquidity to be good. As of June
30, 2025, after accounting for EUR313.3 million in IPO proceeds
used to repay drawings under the backed senior secured revolving
credit facility (RCF) and additional IPO proceeds intended to fund
EUR133 million in cash on the balance sheet, the company is
expected to have EUR154 million in cash on hand. Additionally, it
will have full drawing capacity under its proposed EUR950 million
backed senior secured RCF.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade the ratings if Verisure establishes a track
record as a public company with solid performance and consistent
EBITDA growth while maintaining a Moody's-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA
ratio below 2.75x. An upgrade would also require demonstrating
adherence to its financial policy and consistently generating
substantial positive Moody's-adjusted free cash flow. For an
upgrade, Verisure would need a capital structure consistent with an
investment-grade rating and a significantly reduced influence of
existing shareholders on the board.
The ratings could be downgraded if Verisure's revenue and EBITDA
deteriorate, or if the company pursues an overly aggressive
customer acquisition strategy that causes the Moody's-adjusted
debt-to-EBITDA ratio to exceed 3.5x on a sustained basis.
Consistently negative Moody's-adjusted free cash flow or weak
liquidity could also prompt a downgrade.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
PROFILE
Headquartered in Versoix, Switzerland, Verisure is a leading
provider of professionally monitored alarm solutions. The company
designs, sells, and installs alarm systems, offering ongoing
monitoring services to residential and small business customers
across 17 countries in Europe and Latin America. In the last twelve
months ending June 30, 2025, Verisure generated approximately
EUR3.6 billion in revenue.
===========
T U R K E Y
===========
AYDEM YENILENEBILIR: Fitch Rates USD50MM 9.8% Notes Due 2030 'B'
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch has assigned Aydem Yenilenebilir Enerji Anonim Sirketi's
USD550 million 9.875% notes due 2030 a final senior unsecured
rating of 'B' with a Recovery Rating on the notes of 'RR4'. The
notes' final rating reflects their final terms.
The issue rating is aligned with Aydem's Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) of 'B' with Positive Outlook. The IDR reflects Aydem's large
exposure to the Turkish economy, small domestic market share,
decreasing share of feed-in tariffs (FiT)-eligible generation, and
rising FX risks. Rating strengths are low offtake risk, supportive
regulation, a strong asset base with high profitability, and
consistently positive free cash flow (FCF).
The Positive Outlook reflects its expectation of stronger credit
metrics from 2026, due mainly to moderate capex. The rating trend
will mainly depend on the pace of Aydem's deleveraging, while its
exposure to merchant prices and FX gradually rises due to the
expiry of FiT.
Key Rating Drivers
Final Terms of Notes: The notes constitute direct, secured,
unsubordinated and unconditional obligations of Aydem. They rank
pari passu among themselves and equally with all other unsecured
and unsubordinated obligations, and are subordinated to existing or
future debt secured by liens not forming part of the collateral.
The proceeds are used to purchase all existing notes totalling
USD539 million and to pay fees related to the new issuance. The
bond amortises in five equal instalments of 7.5% of the issue size,
beginning in March 2028, with the rest payable at maturity in
September 2030.
Bondholder Protection: Bondholders benefit from a comprehensive set
of high-yield covenants. These include a cumulative cap on dividend
payments, an additional debt incurrence cap with specific net
debt/EBITDA ratios (3.75x in year 1, 3.5x in year 2, 3.25x in year
3, and 3.0x thereafter), which if breached would also prevent
distributions. It includes specific covenants restricting
related-party transaction.
Weaker 1H25 Results: Aydem's performance in 1H25 was below its
forecast, due mainly to weaker hydrology and softer spot
electricity prices. Generation in 1H25 was 1,170 GWh, 12% lower
than a year ago, and EBITDA was USD65 million. Aydem expects
electricity production to largely recover in 2H25, backed by strong
electricity generation in the second and third quarters. Fitch
expects EBITDA of USD120 million-125 million for 2025, reflecting
lower output in 1H25, its estimate of merchant prices, and premiums
achieved. Reduced cash flow from operations will lead to funds from
operations (FFO) net leverage of 4.5x at end-2025, which is
adequate for the rating.
Stronger Financial Profile: Fich forecasts the company to
deleverage from 2026, with a FFO net leverage average of 3.7x in
2026-2028, below its positive sensitivity, supporting the Positive
Outlook. In the rating case this would be backed by higher
production, expected cash flow from operations of USD85 million-90
million a year, and capex for wind and hybrid projects averaging
only USD24 million a year. Fitch forecasts FFO interest coverage at
about 2.6x on average over 2026-2028, slightly above the positive
sensitivity of 2.5x.
Rising Merchant Exposure: At 30 June 2025, Aydem's average
remaining FiT period was 1.3 years. Fitch forecasts the share of
FiT-eligible revenue to fall to 43% in 2025 and 11% in 2027-2028,
from 72% in 2024, as FiTs for its hydro and wind plants gradually
expire. The increasing merchant exposure will also raise FX risk,
which historically has largely been neutralised by the indexation
of FiT-based production. In November 2024 Fitch tightened the
company's debt capacity for the 'B' rating by 0.5x to reflect its
rising merchant exposure and FX risk.
Premium Over Merchant Prices: Merchant prices are about USD69/MWh
in 2025, while Aydem's average selling price is higher at
USD83/MWh. This is a result of peak price effects (hydro power
plants with reservoir capacity can optimise their generation
profile during peak price periods), premium on bilateral agreements
with related-party supply companies, and ancillary services at
Goktash hydro power plants. Fitch forecasts Aydem's effective
selling price at USD78/MWh over 2026-2028, accounting for
mechanisms that allow production to be sold on average above the
merchant price.
Moderate Capex Programme: In 2025-2028 Aydem plans to put into
operation 140MW of new capacity in hybrid solar and wind plants.
Fitch therefore forecasts cumulative growth capex of USD89 million
in 2025-2028, with most of it to be spent in 2026-2027. Aydem has
cut back its capex programme since 2021, when it had planned to
commission around 700MW by 2023, underlining its disciplined
approach to growth and leverage.
New Capacity Boosts Diversification: On 30 August 2025 hydro plants
represented 71% of Aydem's installed capacity, down from 84% at
end-2021. Hydro output depends on weather and drives cash flow
volatility; however, it has a very long residual life. Hydro should
fall to 64% by 2028, while wind and solar should rise to 36%,
making Aydem's generation more diversified (also geographically
across Turkiye) and production less volatile. However, the company
is still exposed to merchant price risk.
Optional Battery and Renewable Projects: Aydem has optional
projects of 500MW each in battery storage and additional renewable
capacity in solar and wind. This project is not part of its rating
case. Its potential USD400 million cost will require debt funding,
resulting in leverage inconsistent with an upgrade. However, Fitch
would expect management to pursue mitigating actions if the project
goes ahead, based on its plan to gradually deleverage to net
debt/EBITDA of below 3.5x.
Peer Analysis
Aydem shares the same operating and regulatory environment in
Turkiye, and has comparable scale and market share, as Zorlu Enerji
Elektrik Uretim A.S. (B+/Stable) and Limak Yenilenebilir Enerji
Anonim Sirketi (Limak; BB-/Negative). Zorlu and Limak benefit from
higher revenue visibility than Aydem, due mainly to a higher share
of renewables generation under YEKDEM and, for Zorlu, the presence
of material regulated businesses, which results in higher debt
capacity. Aydem and Limak's exposure to hydro leads to more
volatile generation volumes than stable production at Zorlu's
geothermal power plants. Aydem's financial profile is similar to
Zorlu's and weaker than Limak's.
Aydem's business profile compares well with that of
Uzbekhydroenergo JSC (BB/Stable, Standalone Credit Profile at b+) -
a Uzbekistan-based hydro power generator - due to higher revenue
visibility supported by FiT and better asset quality.
Uzbekhydroenergo has a similar debt capacity to Aydem but it is
based on gross leverage. Uzbekhydroenergo's stronger Standalone
Credit Profile is supported by lower leverage.
Aydem faces a weaker operating and regulatory environment than
Energia Group Limited (BB/Stable), an integrated electricity
generation and supply company operating across Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. Energia benefits from a higher share (65%)
of regulated and quasi-regulated EBITDA and a higher debt capacity
than Aydem. Its financial profile is also moderately stronger.
Key Assumptions
- GDP growth in Turkiye of 3.7% a year over 2025-2028; inflation of
34% in 2025 and averaging 21% a year in 2026-2028
- Electricity generation volumes at 2.1-2.5TWh annually over
2025-2028
- Effective selling price of around USD77/MWh over 2025-2028
- Capex totalling around USD100 million over 2025-2028; battery
project not included in forecasts
Recovery Analysis
- Its recovery analysis assumes that Aydem would be a going concern
in bankruptcy and that the company would be reorganised rather than
liquidated.
- Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
- Its going-concern EBITDA estimate of USD99 million reflects
Fitch's view of a sustainable, post-reorganisation EBITDA level on
which Fitch bases the valuation of the company.
- Fitch assumes an enterprise value multiple of 5x.
- These assumptions result in its waterfall generated recovery
computation for the senior secured debt in the 'RR2' band. However,
under Fitch's Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings
Criteria, the Recovery Rating for Turkish corporate issuers is
capped at 'RR4'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Generation volumes or prices well below current forecasts, higher
investment, a reduction in profitability on a sustained basis or a
more aggressive financial policy leading to inability to maintain
FFO net leverage below 4x and FFO interest cover above 2.5x on a
sustained basis, would result in the revision of the Outlook to
Stable.
- FFO net leverage above 5x and FFO interest cover below 1.7 x on a
sustained basis would lead to a downgrade.
- Inability to secure liquidity to meet bond amortisation payments
on a timely basis would lead to a downgrade.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Increased visibility on new investments and ability to maintain a
stronger financial profile and materially positive FCF, with FFO
net leverage below 4x and FFO interest cover above 2.5x on a
sustained basis would lead to an upgrade.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of 30 June 2025, Aydem had TRY872 million of cash and funds in
an interest reserve account of TRY623 million. Fitch also expects
the company to generate positive pre-dividend FCF of around
TRY2,975 million in 2025. Aydem was able to repay its scheduled
bond of USD67 million in March 2025 and August 2025.
Aydem plans to refinance the existing bond with the new USD550
million notes due 2030. The refinancing will improve the company's
liquidity profile, with no debt maturities until early 2028.
Issuer Profile
Aydem is a small renewable energy producer operating hydro, wind
and solar power plants across Turkiye.
Date of Relevant Committee
17 September 2025
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Aydem Yenilenebilir
Enerji Anonim Sirketi
senior secured LT B New Rating RR4 B(EXP)
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
BLITZEN SECURITIES 1: Fitch Lowers Rating on Class F Notes to CCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Blitzen Securities No. 1 PLC's class D
and E notes, downgraded the class F notes and affirmed the class C
notes. All tranches have been removed from Under Criteria
Observation.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Blitzen Securities
No.1 PLC
Class C XS2374597503 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class D XS2374597768 LT AAAsf Upgrade AA+sf
Class E XS2374597925 LT A+sf Upgrade BBB+sf
Class F XS2374598576 LT CCCsf Downgrade BB+sf
Transaction Summary
Blitzen Securities No.1 PLC is a securitisation of owner-occupied
mortgages originated by Santander UK. The portfolio comprises
first-time buyers (FTB), with original loan-to-value ratios ranging
between 85% and 95%.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
UK RMBS Rating Criteria Updated: The rating actions reflect its
updated UK RMBS Rating Criteria (see 'Fitch Ratings Updates UK RMBS
Rating Criteria', dated 23 May 2025). Key changes include updated
representative pool weighted average foreclosure frequency, changes
to sector selection, revised recovery rate assumptions and changes
to cashflow assumptions. Fitch now applies dynamic default
distributions and high prepayment rate assumptions, rather than
static assumptions.
Build-up of Credit Enhancement: Product switch redemptions by the
seller has led to a strong build-up of credit enhancement since
closing in August 2021. Credit enhancement for the class C and D
notes is 63.6% and 32.6%, compared with 6% and 3%, respectively, at
closing. The increase in credit enhancement, alongside stable asset
performance, has contributed to the upgrades of the class D and E
notes.
Class F Excess Spread Sensitivity: The repayment of the class F
notes is reliant on a "turbo" feature, under which excess spread is
used to pay principal, after the step-up date. Extensive product
switch redemption activity by the seller has led to a rapid
decrease in the pool factor and sharp rise of the weighted average
note margin beyond Fitch's initial expectations. This means the
amount of excess spread generated to support turbo payments after
the step-up date will be limited. As a result, Fitch has downgraded
the class F notes.
High Concentration of FTBs: All borrowers in the collateral
portfolio are FTBs. Fitch views FTBs as more likely to suffer
foreclosure than other borrowers and views their concentration in
the pool as significant. Fitch has therefore applied an upward
adjustment of 1.4x to foreclosure frequency for each loan. This
means accessibility to affordable housing for FTBs is a factor
affecting Fitch's ESG scores.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce credit enhancement available to the
notes.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the weighted average foreclosure
frequency and 15% decrease of the weighted average recovery rate
would imply the following:
Class C: 'AAAsf'
Class D: 'AAAsf'
Class E: 'BBBsf'
Class F: below 'B-sf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing credit enhancement and,
potentially, upgrades.
Fitch found that a 15% decrease in the weighted average foreclosure
frequency and 15% increase of the weighted average recovery rate
would result in the following:
Class C: 'AAAsf'
Class D: 'AAAsf'
Class E: 'AA+sf'
Class F: below 'B-sf'
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch reviewed the results of a
third-party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information
and concluded that there were no findings that affected the rating
analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Blitzen Securities No.1 PLC has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Human Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability due the
significant concentration of FTBs, which are characterised by a
higher credit risk profile than other borrowers' and may affect the
credit risk of the transaction. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with
other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
CLINIGEN: S&P Affirms 'B' LT ICR After Acquisition of SSI Strategy
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B' long-term issuer credit rating
on U.K.-based health care services provider Clinigen and its 'B+'
issue rating (recovery: '2') on the group's term loan B (TLB).
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that after the
acquisition, Clinigen will deliver sustained operating performance,
generating positive FOCF to deleverage to 4.7x over the next 12-24
months.
Clinigen plans to fund its acquisition of U.S. life cycle
consultant SSI Strategy by issuing a $290 million equivalent
fungible add-on to its existing EUR635 million term loan B (TLB),
alongside GBP37 million in cash balances and GBP19 million in
rolled equity from SSI's management.
S&P said, "We believe the acquisition strengthens Clinigen's
leading position as a life cycle management services provider,
enhancing cross-selling capabilities and geographic diversity. We
expect full synergies to be realized in fiscal year 2027.
"As a result, we forecast S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to
EBITDA to increase slightly to 6.1x in fiscal 2026, compared with
our previous forecast of 5.8x. We anticipate EBITDA of GBP125
million-GBP165 million over the next two years and positive FOCF of
GBP35 million-GBP60 million annually.
"Despite a slight increase in adjusted debt to EBITDA in fiscal
2026, we expect Clinigen's credit metrics to stay commensurate with
the current 'B' rating over the next 12-18 months. In September
2025, Clinigen announced the acquisition of SSI Strategy for a
purchase price of $355 million. To fund this acquisition and
related expenses, the company plans to issue a EUR250 million
(GBP214 million) fungible add-on to its EUR635 million senior
secured TLB, alongside GBP37 million in balance sheet cash and
GBP19 million in rolled equity from SSI's management. Pro forma the
transaction, adjusted debt to EBITDA will increase slightly to 6.1x
in fiscal 2026 compared to our previous forecast of 5.8x, which is
still well below our rating downside trigger of 7x. The relatively
moderate leverage increase reflects strong EBITDA generation driven
by continued positive momentum in partnered and clinical services,
cost savings from transformational programs, and the Proleukin
royalty payment. We also expect positive free operating cash flow
(FOCF) generation of GBP35 million-GBP60 million over fiscals
2026-2027 driven by managed capital expenditure (capex) of about 3%
of revenue since the company has become more services focused.
Furthermore, we expect funds from operations (FFO) cash interest
coverage to exceed 3x over fiscals 2026-2027, benefiting from debt
repricing in January this year. Overall, we believe the company's
post-transaction credit metrics will be consistent with a 'B'
rating."
Clinigen's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter results demonstrated a return
to profitable growth, reflecting its ongoing strategic
transformation. The company reported better-than-expected growth of
8% in both the top line and EBITDA, primarily driven by a
successful turnaround in the services segment. The partnered
business saw a strong 21% uplift in gross profit, supported by a
strong order book of new licensed products in Asia-Pacific and
global sales of Erwinase. S&P expects the momentum to continue in
fiscal 2026, underpinned by expanded unlicensed exclusive and
in-licensing deals, as well as contributions from the licensing and
distribution agreement of MaaT Pharma's Novel Microbiota Therapy,
commencing the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. The Clinical Trial
Services (CTS) and Clinical Supply Management (CSM) segments also
returned to positive combined revenue growth of 2.4% after two
years of double-digit declines. This reflects the successful
execution of the company's sales strategy after investing in
business development and site optimization. S&P expects a stronger
recovery in fiscal 2026 due a backlog of CSM contracts with
prolonged lead times and anticipated proceeds from the delayed
launch of new CTS products over fiscals 2025-2026, although the low
utilization of frozen storage business continues to present a
headwind. Fiscal 2025 also saw a better-than-expected royalty
revenue generated from the previously divested Proleukin, which
contributed meaningfully to the EBITDA margin uplift, which S&P
includes in its adjusted EBITDA calculation. The Managed Access
Program (MAP) segment remains flat due to pricing misalignment and
a reduced number of enrolled patients. A revised pricing model
based on patient type is currently being piloted, although the
impact is yet to be seen. The Products business experienced an
anticipated decline since Foscavir faces ongoing competition from
generics; however, this is partially offset by new product
launches, and continued investment in the Colonis business.
The transaction will strengthen Clinigen's position as a leading
service provider, contingent on retaining key talent and achieving
smooth integration. S&P said, "We view the SSI Strategy acquisition
positively and believe it will broaden Clinigen's capabilities
across the pharmaceutical value chain, encompassing early-stage
research and development, clinical trials, regulatory filing, and
commercialization. SSI's asset-light business model and strong cash
conversion contribute to an EBITDA margin that is accretive to
Clinigen, and we anticipate potential synergies from the combined
client base and cross-selling opportunities. In addition, the
acquisition expands Clinigen's presence in the U.S., the largest
and most mature biotech market. Clinigen plans a phased
integration, initially allowing SSI to operate independently before
an eventual merger with the Clinical Lifecycle Services business
unit. Nonetheless, we recognize the transaction still carries
disruption risks, given the company's ongoing aggressive
transformational program aimed at commercial growth and cost
efficiencies. While we recognize the inherent risk of losing key
managers and consultants given the services nature of SSI's
business, we think this is somewhat mitigated by the equity stake
held by SSI's management, which should support staff retention and
align incentives."
S&P said, "We believe Clinigen's long-term success in transitioning
to a services business relies on several key factors. In our view,
the acquisition demonstrates the company's ongoing evolution toward
a service-focused model. Although we expect the legacy products
segment to face a gradual decline, we note the continued stability
of perpetual-like royalty payments from previously divested
products, which offers financial flexibility to support
reinvestment in the service business. We also anticipate the
company to continue its expansion in emerging markets such as
Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa, which presents
robust business and acquisition opportunities. In the medium to
long term, we think the company's success will hinge on the
sustained execution of its commercial strategy, realization of cost
savings from transformational programs and the effective
integration of SSI. Other factors we will monitor include the
broader biotech funding environment supporting clinical trials and
Clinigen's relationship major pharmaceutical partners.
"The stable outlook reflects that we expect Clinigen to sustain
adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 6.1x during fiscal 2026, while
maintaining an FOCF cushion to fund expansionary investments. Our
base case assumes the new management team will successfully
integrate the newly acquired business and implement its strategy,
resulting in cost savings, improved efficiency, and profitable
growth across the services platform. We think this will be
supported by transformation and business development initiatives,
as well as positive industry trends, offsetting the pressure from
generics on its owned products division.
"We could lower our ratings if adjusted debt to EBITDA stays above
7.0x over the medium term or FOCF remains depressed without signs
that it will rapidly improve. In our view, this could occur if
Clinigen fails to roll out its ambitious business strategy, which
entails turning around the services delivery model while increasing
operating efficiency and profitably expanding its services
division. Under such scenario, we could see contract losses,
stagnant services expansion, and subpar operating efficiency,
translating into lower-than-expected adjusted EBITDA and FOCF. A
downgrade could also occur if Clinigen fails to integrate SSI
Strategy smoothly, which entails losing key personnel and clients,
higher-than-expected integration costs, and lower-than-expected
synergies. The ratings could also come under pressure if the group
embarks on larger debt-funded acquisitions than expected.
"We could upgrade Clinigen if it reduces its adjusted debt to
EBITDA sustainably below 5x and commits to keeping leverage below
this threshold. However, this would be inconsistent with our
current view of the group's financial policy. Clinigen is owned by
a financial sponsor, meaning dividend recapitalizations or
debt-funded acquisitions could rapidly increase leverage in the
capital structure."
DENDRA SYSTEMS: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
Dendra Systems Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in
The High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2025-006341, and
Geoffrey Paul Rowley and Philip Lewis Armstrong of FRP Advisory
Trading Limited were appointed as administrators on Sept. 24, 2025.
Dendra Systems engaged in support services to forestry.
Its registered office is at Camburgh House, 27 New Dover Road,
Canterbury, CT1 3DN to be changed to 110 Cannon Street, London,
EC4N 6EU
Its principal trading address is at Camburgh House, 27 New Dover
Road, Canterbury, CT1 3DN
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Geoffrey Paul Rowley
Philip Lewis Armstrong
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
2nd Floor, 110 Cannon Street
London, EC4N 6EU
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 3005 4079
Alternative contact:
Maya Hettiaratchi
Email: maya.hettiaratchi@frpadvisory.com
MELIOR LABS: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
Melior Labs Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-006596, and Paul Appleton and Paul Cooper of Begbies
Traynor (London) LLP were appointed as administrators on Sept. 23,
2025.
Melior Labs, trading as Ted's Health, engaged in the retail of food
and drugs.
Its registered office is c/o Begbies Traynor, 31st Floor, 40 Bank
Street, London, E14 5NR (formerly Soho Works White City 2,
Television Centre, 101 Wood Lane, London, England, W12 7FA).
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Paul Appleton
Paul Cooper
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street,
London, E14 5NR
Any person who requires further information may contact:
Sophia Lodhi
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
E-mail: GM-team@btguk.com
Tel No: 020-7400-7900
MORGLAS ABS 2025-1: Fitch Assigns 'B(EXP)sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Morglas ABS 2025-1 PLC expected
ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already received.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Morglas ABS
2025-1 PLC
Class A LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class B LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class C LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class D LT BBB(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class E LT BB(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class F LT B(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class R LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class X LT BB(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class Z LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Morglas ABS 2025-1 is a securitisation of unsecured consumer loans
originated by Admiral Financial Services Limited under the Admiral
Money brand (AM), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Admiral Group
plc (A/Stable). The transaction does not feature a revolving period
and amortises pro rata, subject to conditional triggers.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Near-Prime Assets, Recent Originator: The portfolio comprises
unsecured UK consumer loans originated by AM. The lender started
originating in 2017, focusing on near-prime loans, with more than
half of the transaction's pool comprising loans for debt
consolidation purposes.
Fitch has assumed a base case default of 5.5%, slightly above the
historical average and a 'AAAsf' multiple of 4.75x, reflecting
limited data and high historical volatility due to rapid loan book
growth. Fitch has used a base case recovery expectation of 30% with
a 'AAAsf' haircut of 55%.
Static and Pro Rata Amortisation: The deal does not have a
revolving period. The class A to Z notes will be repaid pro rata
unless a sequential amortisation event occurs. Such an event would
be primarily linked to performance triggers such as cumulative
defaults exceeding certain thresholds. Fitch views these triggers
as sufficiently robust to halt the pro rata mechanism at early
signs of performance deterioration and believes the tail risk posed
by the pro rata pay-down is reduced by the mandatory switch to
sequential amortisation when the outstanding collateral balance
falls below 10% of the initial balance.
PIR May Constrain Junior Notes: Payment interruption risk (PIR) is
reduced by the presence of a dedicated liquidity reserve for the
class A and B notes, but the class C to F notes do not benefit from
this liquidity protection. However, the presence of a declaration
of trust in favour of the issuer, together with the collection
account bank (Barclays Bank PLC; A+ / Stable) holding funds for no
longer than two business days, mitigate PIR up to the 'Asf'
category.
Standby Servicer Appointed: AM is a fairly recent newcomer to the
ABS market and Lenvi Servicing Limited is appointed as back-up
servicer at closing. Lenvi is an experienced back-up servicer with
GBP42 billion of back-up agreements and aims to complete invocation
in 30 days. Lenvi has a RMBS primary servicer rating of 'RPS2-'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Sensitivity to Increased Defaults:
Expected ratings (class A/B/C/D/E/F/X):
'AAA(EXP)sf'/'AA(EXP)sf'/'A(EXP)sf'/'BBB(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'/'B(EXP)sf'/
'BB(EXP)sf'
Increase defaults by 10%:
'AA+(EXP)sf'/'AA-(EXP)sf'/'BBB+(EXP)sf'/'BBB-(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/
'B+(EXP)sf'
Increase defaults by 25%:
'AA(EXP)sf'/'A+(EXP)sf'/'BBB(EXP)sf'/'BB+(EXP)sf'/'B+(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'B(EXP)sf'
Increase defaults by 50%:
'A+(EXP)sf'/'A-(EXP)sf'/'BBB-(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'/'B-(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'CCC(EXP)sf'
Sensitivity to Reduced Recoveries:
Reduce recoveries by 10%:
'AA+(EXP)sf'/'AA-(EXP)sf'/'A-(EXP)sf'/'BBB-(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'
Reduce recoveries by 25%:
'AA+(EXP)sf'/'AA-(EXP)sf'/'BBB+(EXP)sf'/'BB+(EXP)sf'/'B+(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'
Reduce recoveries by 50%:
'AA+(EXP)sf'/'AA-(EXP)sf'/'A-(EXP)sf'/'BBB-(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'BB-(EXP)sf'
Sensitivity to Increased Defaults and Reduced Recoveries:
Increase defaults by 10%, reduce recoveries by 10%:
'AA+(EXP)sf'/'A+(EXP)sf'/'BBB+(EXP)sf'/'BB+(EXP)sf'/
'NR(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'B+(EXP)sf'
Increase defaults by 25%, reduce recoveries by 25%:
'AA-(EXP)sf'/'A(EXP)sf'/'BBB(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'/'B-(EXP)sf'/
'NR(EXP)sf'/'B-(EXP)sf'
Increase defaults by 50%, reduce recoveries by 50%:
'A(EXP)sf'/'BBB+(EXP)sf'/'BB+(EXP)sf'/'B(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/
'NR(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Sensitivity to Reduced Defaults and Increased Recoveries:
Reduce defaults by 10%: 'AAA(EXP)sf'/'AA(EXP)sf'/'A(EXP)sf'/
'BBB(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'
Increase recoveries by 10%:
'AAA(EXP)sf'/'AA(EXP)sf'/'A(EXP)sf'/'BBB(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'/
'NR(EXP)sf'/ 'BB(EXP)sf'
Reduce defaults by 10%, increase recoveries by 10%:
'AAA(EXP)sf'/'AA+(EXP)sf'/'A(EXP)sf'/'BBB(EXP)sf'/
'BB(EXP)sf'/'NR(EXP)sf'/'BB(EXP)sf'
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
NEWDAY GROUP: S&P Withdraws 'B+' LongTerm Issuer Credit Rating
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings has withdrawn its 'B+' long-term issuer credit
rating on NewDay Group (Jersey) Ltd. at the company's request. Our
'B+' issue rating on NewDay Bondco PLC's senior secured notes has
been discontinued. This follows the completion of the acquisition
of NewDay's consumer credit receivables portfolio by private equity
firm KKR, and the repayment of NewDay BondCo PLC's senior secured
debt.
The outlook was stable at the time of the withdrawal.
NEXUS UTILITIES: Moorfields Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------
Nexus Utilities Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High court of Justice, Business and Property Courts,
Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number: CR-2025-006564,
and Andrew Pear and Michael Solomons of Moorfields, were appointed
as administrators on Sept. 22, 2025.
Its registered office and principal trading address is at 22
Bankside, Kidlington, OX5 1JE
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Andrew Pear
Michael Solomons
Moorfields
82 St John Street
London EC1M 4JN
Tel No: 020 7186 1144
For further details, contact:
Benjamin Herbert
Moorfields
82 St John Street
London, EC1M 4JN
Tel No: 020 7186 1153
Email: benjamin.herbert@moorfieldscr.com
PREMIER MBP: Oury Clark Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------
Premier MBP Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2025-006730, and Nick
Parsk and Carrie James of Oury Clark Chartered Accountants were
appointed as administrators on Sept. 29, 2025.
Premier MBP Limited is a manufacturer of other special-purpose
machinery not elsewhere classified.
Its registered office is at Kreston Reeves LLP, Innovation House
Innovation Way, Discovery Park, Sandwich, Kent, CT13 9FF
Its principal trading address is at Daytona Dr, Colthrop Ln,
Thatcham, RG19 4ZD
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nick Parsk
Carrie James
Oury Clark Chartered Accountants
Herschel House
58 Herschel Street, Slough
Berkshire, SL1 1PG
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Email: IR@ouryclark.com
Alternative contact:
Emma Admans
VENATOR MATERIALS: Moody's Withdraws 'C' Corporate Family Rating
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has withdrawn all of Venator Materials plc's
(Venator) ratings, including C Corporate Family Rating and D-PD
Probability of Default Rating, as well as ratings on the Ca backed
senior secured term loans and C backed senior secured term loans
under Venator Materials LLC and Venator Finance S.a r.l. (NEW).
Prior to the withdrawal, the outlooks were stable. This action
follows the company's appointment of administrators.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's have withdrawn the ratings as a result of the Venator's
insolvency process in the UK, with the administrators taking over
control of the company, initiating payment moratorium and assets
disposition.
Headquartered in the United Kingdom, Venator Materials plc is one
of the world's largest producer of titanium dioxide pigments used
in paint, paper, and plastics, and a producer of performance
additives for a variety of end markets.
*********
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