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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Thursday, October 16, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 207
Headlines
D E N M A R K
WS AUDIOLOGY: S&P Assigns 'B' LongTerm ICR, Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
BOOST HOLDINGS: S&P Affirms 'B' LT ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
G E R M A N Y
APLEONA GROUP: S&P Discontinues 'B' LT Issuer Credit Rating
ASK CHEMICALS: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Stable
I R E L A N D
CVC CORDATUS XV: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM Class F Notes
OAK HILL VII: Moody's Raises Rating on EUR10MM Class F Notes to B2
OTRANTO PARK: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F Notes
PRPM FUNDIDO 2025-2: S&P Assigns Prelim. B-(sf) Rating on F Notes
K A Z A K H S T A N
ASTANA MOTORS: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
M O L D O V A
MOLDOVA: S&P Assigns 'BB-/B' Sovereign Credit Ratings
N E T H E R L A N D S
HILL FL 2023-1: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Rating on EUR13.5MM Cl. D Notes
IGNITION TOPCO: S&P Lowers ICR to 'CCC-' on Debt Restructuring Risk
OCI NV: S&P Withdraws 'BB' LongTerm Issuer Credit Rating
S P A I N
AUTOVIA DE LA MANCHA: Moody's Ups Rating on Secured Debt to Ba1
CIRSA FINANCE: S&P Rates New EUR1BB Senior Secured Notes 'BB-'
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
AMBER HOLDCO: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
AMBER HOLDCO: S&P Affirms 'BB-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Negative
ASTON MARTIN: S&P Lowers LongTerm ICR to 'CCC+', Outlook Stable
BONSAI COLLECTIVE: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
CPUK FINANCE: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B(sf)' Rating on B8-Dfrd Notes
ENERGY EXPERTS: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
FGP LUFTON: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
K HOUGH CONTRACTORS: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
NEW CINEWORLD: Moody's Affirms B3 CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
OXBRIDGE LTD: Forvis Mazars Named as Administrators
PARK HOUSE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
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D E N M A R K
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WS AUDIOLOGY: S&P Assigns 'B' LongTerm ICR, Outlook Stable
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S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B' long-term issuer credit rating
to Global manufacturer of hearing aid devices WS Audiology A/S and
its 'B' issue rating to the EUR1.9 billion and $1.08 billion TLBs
and the EUR350 million senior secured revolving credit facility
(RCF). The recovery rating on the debt facilities is '3' (65%
expected recovery in an event of default). At the same time, S&P
discontinued its 'B' issuer credit rating on Auris Luxembourg II
S.A the former parent company.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that a progressive recovery
in top line and continuous profitability expansion for the next 12
months should lead to improved adjusted debt leverage at 6.0x-6.5x
and funds from operations (FFO) interest coverage exceeding 2.0x.
WS Audiology A/S has changed the borrower of its senior secured
facilities following the loan repricing exercise achieved in June
2025. In June 2025 WS Audiology repriced its senior loans due in
February 2029, which will support free operating cash flow (FOCF)
and debt service metrics. S&P also understands the group has
changed slightly its group structure with entity WS Audiology A/S
now being the new parent company of the restricted group and the
new borrower of the EUR1.9 billion and $1.08 billion senior secured
TLBs maturing in February 2029 (the latter co-borrowed by WS
Audiology USA LLC), as well as being the new borrower of the EUR350
million senior secured RCF due in August 2028.
S&P said, "Despite revenue headwinds currently, we see S&P
Global-Ratings adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 17.5%-18.0% in
2025 (versus 16.0% in 2024). For the first nine months of 2025, WS
Audiology generated revenue of EUR1.958 billion translating into a
1% year-on-year decline, a significant deviation compared with 7%
growth posted for the same period last year. Especially during the
third quarter of 2025, WS Audiology's operating results were
affected by the volatile market environment and weaker consumer
confidence, with patients postponing the purchase of new hearing
devices. Additionally, the company decided to strategically review
its customer base, which negatively affected volumes sold during
the third quarter of 2025. Despite the challenged top line, we note
an improvement in WS Audiology's reported EBITDA margins for the
first nine months of 2025, which stood at 17.1%, up from 15.5%
posted in June 2024. The successful implementation of margin
improvement initiatives, together with tight cost control, supports
this.
"For full-year 2025, we anticipate revenue will decline by around
1.0%-1.5%. On an organic base, we expect top line to be flat but
include adverse foreign exchange movements in our forecasts. This
marks a deviation versus our previous expectation of a 3.9%
increase (please refer to "Auris Luxembourg II S.A. Upgraded To 'B'
From 'B-' On Significant Deleveraging Following Equity Injection;
Outlook Stable," May 8, 2025, for more information around previous
expectations). Building on the momentum of the first nine months of
2025, we anticipate that WS Audiology's adjusted EBITDA margins
will expand to 17.5%-18.0% by Dec. 31, 2025, from the about 16%
that the company reported on Sept. 30, 2024. The expansion will
stem from cost-saving initiatives, as well as from a favorable
product mix and improvements in gross margins, as the company aims
to selectively expand in margin-accretive channels and markets. WS
Audiology has been optimizing its manufacturing and distribution
footprint in the Americas, and we expect it to focus increasingly
on the optimization of its supply chain and procurement costs. We
anticipate the company will continue investing in research and
development (R&D), given the need to continuously bring innovative
products to the market, with R&D costs stable at about 6.5% of
sales. The significant improvements in profitability in 2025,
coupled with debt repayments completed in the first half of 2025,
will support progressive reduction in S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
leverage to about 7.0x, significantly down from the 8.7x the group
posted in 2024. In our definition of debt, we include the EUR2.86
billion-equivalent senior secured TLB, EUR162 million drawings
under the RCF, about EUR226 million adjustment for lease
liabilities, EUR6.2 million asset-retirement obligations, and
EUR3.1 million pension liabilities. We do not net cash from our
adjusted debt figure.
"We see WS Audiology's operating performance improving in 2026,
which, together with disciplined discretionary spending, should
reduce adjusted leverage to 6.0x-6.5x. We thus anticipate a
3.0%-3.5% increase in WS Audiology's top line in 2026. We
anticipate the group will continuously focus on cost savings,
further looking at procurement and increasing its scrutiny of
product returns and repairs. This will translate in further
expansion in S&P Global Ratings' adjusted EBITDA margins to about
19.0%-19.5% in 2026. In our view, WS Audiology will be able to
navigate the current softness in demand. As seen in 2022, when
spiking inflationary pressure weakened patients' disposable income,
WS Audiology's customers tend to postpone the purchase of a new
device rather than completely cancelling the order or turning to
cheaper alternatives or offerings from competitors. In the past, we
have seen a recovery in the top line, also supported by product
launches. We believe that the recent expansion of WS Audiology's
Signia IX hearing aid offering in February and August 2025, along
with the launch of the new hearing aid platform, Widex Allure, in
March 2025, will support the top line in 2026. We also understand
WS Audiology has concluded the streamlining of its customer base,
which should also support the recovery in revenue over the next
several quarters.
"We anticipate that WS Audiology will return to positive FOCF
generation of EUR40 million-EUR60 million in 2025 and above EUR100
million 2026. This marks a significant improvement versus 2024,
when high interest charges, including transaction costs linked to
the refinancing of maturing debt, and EUR65 million in working
capital outflows, hampered the company's FOCF generation. The
improvement we anticipate in cash generation in 2025 mainly results
from our expectation of a 180-basis point (bps) expansion in
profitability versus the previous year. We also believe that
disciplined working capital management will support positive FOCF
generation. Total working capital outflows in the year will be
EUR10 million-EUR15 million, with capital expenditure (capex) of
about EUR95 million-EUR105 million, as we do not expect WS
Audiology to engage in large expansionary projects. We also note
over the past 12 months, the company twice successfully repriced
both the euro and U.S. dollar tranches of its TLBs due February
2029, reducing its coupon by a total of 75 bps on each of its
traches (euro and U.S. dollar). Considering the latest repricing
was finalized in July 2025, we expect interest expense of about
EUR140 million in 2026, from more than EUR200 million expected for
2025. This will support the significant improvement in FOCF
generation in 2026, expected to stand at EUR150 million-EUR200
million.
"We anticipate WS Audiology will prioritize organic growth over
shareholder remuneration and mergers and acquisitions. We
understand the company's intention over the medium term is to focus
on organic growth and deleveraging, thanks to the successful
implementation of its cost improvement initiative. In our base case
for the next 12 months, we do not include any cash outflows related
to acquisitions. Positively, we also note WS Audiology's owners,
T&W Medical, the Lundbeck Foundation, EQT, and Athos KG, have been
supportive of the group in the past, for example in April 2025 with
a EUR590 million pure equity injection used to repay the EUR525
million payment-in-kind (PIK) loan maturing in August 2029. In line
with the past, we do not expect any dividend payment over the next
12 months."
New players are entering the hearing aid market, seeking to benefit
from the supportive growth trends. The World Health Organization
(WHO) estimates that more than 1.5 billion people suffer with
hearing loss but that less than 20% of patients needing treatment
have a hearing aid. This might be due to several factors, including
lack of awareness of the problem and the stigma associated with
hearing loss. The global hearing aid market is supported by trends,
such as a growing and ageing population and increased noise
exposure; the WHO estimates that by 2050 2.5 billion people will
suffer from hearing loss. Existing players and new entrants are
increasingly eyeing the hearing aid space. As an example,
EssilorLuxottica has received FDA approval and launched its
commercial offering of NuanceAudio in February 2025, entering the
over-the-counter (OTC) segment in the U.S., Italy, Germany, France,
and the U.K. S&P said, "We also see Apple entering the market,
marked by the FDA's approval in September 2024 of the hearing aid
feature in the company's AirPods Pro headphones. We do not believe
this will have a near-term material impact on WS Audiology's market
position. The group has already entered the OTC space thanks to its
partnership with Sony, which began in September 2022, while the
rest of its product portfolio is tilted toward moderate-to-severe
hearing conditions. We will closely monitor the progress of
competitors and whether they could threaten WS Audiology's market
position."
The solid fundamentals of the hearing aid business should allow WS
Audiology to mitigate potential weak demand stemming from macro
uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs. The Americas contributed
about 50% of WS Audiology's total sales as of June 30, 2025, and we
understand that the U.S. will remain a key growth driver for the
company. S&P said, "We understand that hearing aids might be exempt
from tariffs, given they treat physical disabilities. However,
should tariffs affect hearing devices, we see WS Audiology as being
in a good position to protect its margins. The company's imports
into the U.S. mainly come from Europe and Singapore. We understand
that the company has adapted a local-for-local policy in China,
implying that the production and distribution center in Suzhou only
serves the Chinese market."
S&P said, "In our view, WS Audiology also retains pricing power
thanks to its strong innovative capabilities. Overall, we view WS
Audiology's product and service offerings as less discretionary
than those of other nonfood retailers. The medical nature of WS
Audiology's products translates into more resilient demand from
potential users, suggesting, in our view, that the company is
somewhat protected from possible shrinkage in patients' disposable
income. Additionally, WS Audiology's multi-brand strategy allows it
to sell devices at different price points, and we think that this
minimizes the risk of consumers trading down to other more
affordable brands."
S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of
unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S.
administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to
tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and
credit conditions around the world. As a result, S&P's base-line
forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations
evolve, it will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential
and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that, over the next
12-18 months, WS Audiology will continue focusing on profitable
growth, ultimately supporting a reduction in adjusted leverage
toward 7.0x in 2025 and 6.0x-6.5x in 2026. We also anticipate that
WS Audiology's EBITDA interest coverage will surpass 2x from 2026
and that FOCF will be EUR100 million or more annually.
"We believe that the launch of the new Widex Allure hearing aid
platform and the expansion of the Signia IX range of hearing aids
will support WS Audiology's top line, allowing it to maintain
competitive pricing and gain market share in Europe, the Middle
East, Africa, and the U.S. and penetrate further into Asia. We also
forecast that WS Audiology's adjusted margins will strengthen
progressively to about 18% by the end of 2025, thanks to a
favorable product mix and operating efficiency."
S&P would lower the ratings over the next 12 months if WS Audiology
sustains adjusted debt to EBITDA materially above 7x and FFO cash
interest remains below 2x. This could stem from:
-- A weakening of the U.S. and European, Middle Eastern, and
African markets that impairs WS Audiology's revenue growth and
reduces its profitability, diverting the company from its
deleveraging trajectory; or
-- An increase in adjusted debt leverage due to more aggressive
discretionary spending, such as on a dividend recapitalization or a
large debt-financed acquisition.
S&P said, "We could take a positive rating action if WS Audiology
continues expanding its EBITDA generation higher than our base
case, such that the adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio drops to
comfortably below 6x and FFO interest coverage rises to 3x,
alongside a clear commitment to maintain the credit metrics at
these levels. A positive rating action would also depend on the
company's ability to generate FOCF above our base-case expectations
in 2025 and 2026."
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F R A N C E
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BOOST HOLDINGS: S&P Affirms 'B' LT ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
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S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on French online office
equipment distributor Boost Holdings to stable from positive. S&P
also affirmed its 'B' long-term issuer credit rating on the group
and 'B' issue rating on its EUR284 million term loan B (TLB).
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view of the group's
ability to keep sound profitability, strong cash flow, and leverage
well below 5.0x despite the challenging market environment, causing
a decline in the top line. For 2025, we expect the group's revenue
to decline about 4% while EBITDA margins remain near 18.5%, with
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 3.4x and free
operating cash flow (FOCF) after lease payments of about EUR40
million."
Boost Holdings' top line continued to decrease moderately in 2025,
after declines in 2023 and 2024, due to lower order volumes amid
weaker business sentiment and challenging market conditions in
France.
S&P expects an overall revenue decline of about 4% in 2025 and S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of about EUR85 million, compared
with EUR89 million in 2024 and EUR98 million in 2023.
Still, the group's good profitability, strong cash conversion, and
track record of using available cash to repay the debt support the
rating. Following the full repayment of the shareholders' loan, S&P
now forecasts that S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage will
improve to about 3.4x by end-2025 from 3.5x in 2024 and 3.7x in
2023, which underpins its view of the group's prudent financial
policy.
The outlook revision follows Boost's declining top line and EBITDA,
amid challenging market conditions. As of Aug. 31, 2025, the
group's year-to-date revenue declined 5% to EUR294 million,
compared with EUR310 million over the first eight months of 2024,
and 5% below the company's budget. This comes after a revenue
decline of about 5.5% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2023. The main factor for
this is a decline in order volumes due to softer customer retention
and limited acquisition of new clients, particularly in France,
which accounts for about 62% of group revenue. S&P said, "We think
challenging market conditions in France, marked by anemic economic
growth, political uncertainty, and weak business sentiment,
weighing on small and midsize enterprises (SMEs), Boost's core
customer base that are now rationalizing their expense. Also, we
think the office equipment market could remain structurally
challenged due to workflow automation and the shift to hybrid
working models, leading to a decline in office supply consumption.
Therefore, we expect total revenue to decrease about 4% in 2025,
before eventually returning to modest 1%-2% growth in 2026-2027.
Despite pressure on the top line, we expect the company will keep a
healthy EBITDA margin of 18.5%-19% in 2025-2026, while benefiting
from strong cash conversion, translating into FOCF after leases of
about EUR40 million per year." This is because of the group's
efficient cost management and business model, characterized by
limited fixed costs that allow the company to easily adjust to
weaker demand, as well as limited working capital and investment
needs.
A track record of consistent FOCF after leases support the rating
and the buildup of a significant liquidity buffer. As of Aug. 31,
2025, Boost had about EUR62 million in cash on the balance sheet,
and EUR60 million available under its revolving credit facility
(RCF) due 2028. This is a comfortable liquidity buffer that we
expect will further increase, thanks to annual FOCF after leases of
EUR40 million-EUR45 million over 2025-2026, in line with 2023-2024.
Despite declining revenue and EBITDA, the group's cash conversion
is supported by its digital and asset-light business model, which
materially limits working capital needs and capital expenditure
(capex) requirements. S&P thinks the group's sustainably positive
FOCF and adequate liquidity buffer afford it a significant cushion
to absorb potential risk related to the market downturn.
Boost's prudent financial policy and deleveraging path also support
our ratings. Since April 2023, the group has regularly repaid its
debt outstanding using available cash. S&P said, "In April 2023, it
repaid EUR21 million of its EUR305 million TLB and EUR21 million of
its shareholders' convertible bond, which we include in our S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted debt calculation. This was followed by a
further EUR95 million repayment of the convertible bond in 2024,
with the repayment of the remaining EUR25 million expected by the
end of October 2025. Consequently, we expect the group's S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted leverage will approach 3.4x by the end of 2025,
down from 3.5x in 2024, 3.7x in 2023, and 4.3x in 2022. Given the
track record of debt repayment, as well as the TLB's stringent
maintenance covenants, we consider Boost's financial policy more
prudent than that of other financial-sponsor-owned companies. As
such, we revised our financial policy assessment to FS-5 from FS-6,
and our financial risk profile assessment to aggressive from highly
leveraged. We will monitor the potential evolution of the
shareholding and capital structure, given that the current
financial sponsors have invested in the group since 2021."
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view of the group's
ability to keep sound profitability, strong cash flow conversion,
and leverage well below 5.0x despite the challenging market
environment causing a decline in the top line. In 2025, we expect
the group's revenue to decline about 4%, with EBITDA margin
remaining near 18.5%, S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA of
about 3.4x, and FOCF after lease payments of about EUR40 million.
"We could lower our ratings on Boost if adjusted debt to EBITDA
exceeds 5x and if its FOCF after lease payments declined
significantly below our current base case. This could stem from
persisting economic pressure translating into weaker earnings,
deteriorated profitability, and a structural cash flow decline.
"We could raise our ratings on Boost it the company outperforms our
base-case scenario and showed sustainable organic growth of the top
line, translating into a larger size of the EBITDA and cash flows,
with FOCF after leases structurally exceeding EUR50 million per
year."
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G E R M A N Y
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APLEONA GROUP: S&P Discontinues 'B' LT Issuer Credit Rating
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S&P Global Ratings discontinued its 'B' long-term issuer credit
ratings on Apleona Group GmbH and subsidiary Apleona Holding GmbH.
The outlook was stable at the time the ratings were discontinued.
S&P also discontinued the 'B' issue rating and '3' recovery rating
on the company's EUR166.7 million revolving credit facility due
2027 and EUR1.6 billion term loan B (split in two tranches of
EUR765 million and EUR835 million) due 2028. This follows the full
repayment of the facilities after facility management services
provider Apleona was acquired by Bain Capital on Sept. 30, 2025.
A consortium led by Bain Capital acquired Apleona via a new holding
company named Admiral Bidco GmbH that continues to be rated. On
April 1, 2025, S&P assigned ratings to Admiral Bidco GmbH and the
debt facilities issued to finance the transaction.
ASK CHEMICALS: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Stable
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Moody's Ratings affirmed the B3 long term corporate family rating
and B3-PD probability of default rating of ASK Chemicals
International Holding GmbH (ASK Chemicals, ASK or the company). In
the same action Moody's affirmed the B3 on the company's EUR325
million backed senior secured notes issued by ASK Chemicals
Deutschland Holding GmbH, a subsidiary of ASK Chemicals. The
outlook on both entities was changed to stable from positive.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation and change of outlook to stable reflects ASK's
stable point-in-time metrics for the B3 rating category and
adequate liquidity, including a long dated maturity profile. The
rating affirmation also reflects Moody's expectations that over the
next 12-18 months ASK could see incremental improvement in
end-market demand, leading to incremental improvement in EBITDA,
notwithstanding some pockets of geographic and end-market weakness,
in particular market demand in Europe. For the twelve months ended
June 30, 2025, the company's Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA was
around 5.75x and Moody's expects the company's Moody's adjusted
debt/EBITDA to remain around 5.5x in the forecast period. However,
the high interest expense and modest EBITDA margins create
challenges with generating consistent meaningful free cash flow.
ASK Chemicals' B3 CFR reflects (1) its leading market position in
the niche metal casting chemicals market, (2) the benefits from
high barriers to entry due to the company's technology protected by
a portfolio of more than 1,000 patents and long-term relationships
with customers due to its focus on quality, innovation and R&D, and
(3) low maintenance capex of around 2% of sales, creating some
capacity to generate free cash flow (FCF) in a downturn.
However, the company's (1) small scale and narrow product
portfolio, (2) exposure to cyclical end-markets, (3) limited
historical free cash flow (FCF) generation capability, and
relatively weak profitability, and (4) elevated Moody's adjusted
gross leverage, temper these strengths.
LIQUIDITY
ASK Chemicals' liquidity is adequate. As of June 30th 2025, the
company had around EUR24 million of cash on hand. The company had
EUR13 million of outstanding borrowings on its EUR40 million super
senior secured revolving credit facility issued by ASK Chemicals
Deutschland Holding GmbH as of June 30th 2025. Subsequent to the
end of Q2 2025, the company repaid EUR5 million, leaving only EUR8
million utilized.
The company continues to have access to several factoring programs
in place amounting to between EUR45- EUR50 million, of which an
equivalent of EUR27 million was utilized at June 30, 2025.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Factors that could lead to a rating upgrade include: (i) gross
debt/EBITDA consistently below 5.0x; (ii) evidence of and
expectations for sustained positive FCF and maintenance of good
liquidity; (iii) EBITDA/Interest cover consistently exceeding 2.0x;
and (iv) an expectation that any potential refinancing of the
payment-in-kind (PIK) notes (currently outside of the restricted
group) would still result in pro forma metrics commensurate with a
higher rating.
Factors that could lead to a rating downgrade include: (i) the
company not executing on the refinancing of its RCF and TLB well in
advance of maturities or completing refinancing which results in a
capital structure which the rating agency considers to be
unsustainable; (ii) gross debt/EBITDA consistently or well above
6.0x; (iii) EBITDA/Interest cover below 1.5x; (iv) negative FCF or
deterioration of the company's liquidity profile; or (v) a
refinancing of the PIK notes such that pro forma metrics are no
longer commensurate with the current rating category or more
aggressive financial policies.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
At a holding company above the rated group and not formally
included in Moody's metrics sit payment-in-kind (PIK) notes.
Moody's estimates the value of the outstanding PIK note to be
approximately EUR50 million. The instrument remains a negative
credit consideration because of the risk that PIK notes may be
refinanced at a future point through additional debt raised within
the restricted group.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Chemicals
published in October 2023.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Hilden Germany, ASK Chemicals is a global supplier
of high-performance industrial resins and materials. ASK has been
owned by private equity firm Rhône Capital since June 2014.
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CVC CORDATUS XV: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM Class F Notes
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Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XV Designated Activity Company:
EUR28,500,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2032, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023 Upgraded to
Aa1 (sf)
EUR12,000,000 Class B-2-R Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2032, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023 Upgraded to
Aa1 (sf)
EUR27,000,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023
Affirmed Baa3 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR246,000,000 (Current outstanding balance EUR183,667,326) Class
A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2032, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Dec 8, 2023 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR24,000,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023
Upgraded to A1 (sf)
EUR22,500,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023
Affirmed Ba3 (sf)
EUR9,000,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes
due 2032, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Dec 8, 2023 Affirmed B3
(sf)
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XV Designated Activity Company, originally
issued in September 2019 and refinanced in September 2021, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by CVC Credit Partners European CLO Management LLP. The
transaction's reinvestment period ended in February 2024.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1-R, B-2-R and D-R notes are
primarily a result of the deleveraging of the Class A-R notes
following amortisation of the underlying portfolio since the last
rating action in December 2023.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-R, C-R, E and F
notes are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A-R notes have paid down by approximately EUR62.3 million
(25.3%) since the last rating action in December 2023 and since
closing. As a result of the deleveraging, over-collateralisation
(OC) has increased. According to the trustee report dated August
2025[1] the Class A/B, Class C, Class D and Class E OC ratios are
reported at 142.4%, 130.2%, 118.7% and 110.5% compared to December
2023[2] levels of 138.8%, 128.1%, 117.9% and 110.5%, respectively.
Moody's notes that the August 2025 principal payments are not
reflected in the reported OC ratios.
Key model inputs:
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR330.4m
Defaulted Securities: EUR3.84m
Diversity Score: 46
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3066
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.6 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.59%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.10%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.59%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank and swap provider,
using the methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks"
published in May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes
are not constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty.
-- Long-dated assets: The presence of assets that mature beyond
the CLO's legal maturity date exposes the deal to liquidation risk
on those assets. Moody's assumes that, at transaction maturity, the
liquidation value of such an asset will depend on the nature of the
asset as well as the extent to which the asset's maturity lags that
of the liabilities. Liquidation values higher than Moody's
expectations would have a positive impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
OAK HILL VII: Moody's Raises Rating on EUR10MM Class F Notes to B2
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Oak Hill European Credit Partners VII Designated Activity
Company:
EUR25,200,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 1, 2025
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)
EUR27,200,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Apr 1, 2025
Upgraded to A3 (sf)
EUR24,300,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Apr 1, 2025
Affirmed Ba3 (sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Apr 1, 2025
Affirmed B3 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR240,000,000 (Current outstanding balance EUR85,477,835) Class A
Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2031, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Apr 1, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR43,600,000 Class B Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2031,
Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 1, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Oak Hill European Credit Partners VII Designated Activity Company,
issued in December 2018 and refinanced in May 2021, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by Oak Hill Advisors (Europe), LLP. The transaction's
reinvestment period ended in April 2023.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class C, D, E and F notes are primarily
a result of the significant deleveraging of the senior notes
following amortisation of the underlying portfolio since the
payment date in January 2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A and B notes are
primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes remaining
consistent with their current rating levels, after taking into
account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A notes have paid down by approximately EUR50.6 million
(21.1% of original balance) since the last rating action in April
2025 and EUR154.5 million (64.4%) since closing. As a result of the
deleveraging, over-collateralisation (OC) has increased across the
capital structure. According to the trustee report dated September
2025[1] the Class A/B, Class C, Class D and Class E OC ratios are
reported at 183.5%, 153.6%, 130.5% and 115.1% compared to March
2025[2] levels of 160.8%, 141.0%, 124.5% and 112.7%, respectively.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR236.8 million
Defaulted Securities: EUR0.3 million
Diversity Score: 38
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3044
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.5 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.72%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.25%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.65%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: None
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the debt's exposure to
relevant counterparties, using the methodology "Structured Finance
Counterparty Risks" published in May 2025. Moody's concluded the
ratings of the debt are not constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
OTRANTO PARK: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F Notes
--------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Otranto Park CLO
DAC's A, B, C, D, E, and F notes. At closing, the issuer has
unrated subordinated notes outstanding from the existing
transaction.
This transaction is a reset of an already existing transaction
which S&P did not rate. The issuance proceeds of the refinancing
notes were used to redeem the refinanced notes.
The reinvestment period will be approximately 4.50 years, while the
non-call period will be 1.50 years after closing.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless there is a frequency switch event. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payment.
The ratings assigned to the notes reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which is in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings weighted-average rating factor 2,814.632
Default rate dispersion 546.764
Weighted-average life (years) 4.36
Weighted-average life (years) extended to cover
the length of the reinvestment period 4.51
Obligor diversity measure 175.288
Industry diversity measure 21.809
Regional diversity measure 1.316
Transaction key metrics
Total collateral amount (mil. EUR)* 440.18
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0.00
Number of performing obligors 236
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 3.48
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.14
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.58
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 3.32
*Performing assets plus expected recoveries on defaulted assets.
S&P's ratings reflect its assessment of the collateral portfolio's
credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of 'B'.
S&P said, "The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
senior secured bonds. Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash
flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
"The transaction includes an amortizing reinvestment target par
amount, which is a predetermined reduction in the value of the
transaction's target par amount unrelated to the principal payments
on the notes. This may allow for the principal proceeds to be
characterized as interest proceeds when the collateral par exceeds
this amount, subject to a limit, and affect the reinvestment
criteria, among others. This feature allows some excess par to be
released to equity during benign times, which may lead to a
reduction in the amount of losses that the transaction can sustain
during an economic downturn. Hence, in our cash flow analysis, we
assumed a starting collateral size of less than target par (i.e.,
the EUR440 million target par minus the EUR4 million maximum
reinvestment target par adjustment amount).
"In our cash flow analysis, we also modeled the covenanted
weighted-average spread of 3.53%, the covenanted weighted-average
coupon of 3.50%, and the target weighted-average recovery rates at
each rating level. We applied various cash flow stress scenarios,
using four different default patterns, in conjunction with
different interest rate stress scenarios for each liability rating
category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B, C, and D notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned.
However, as the CLO will be in its reinvestment phase starting from
the effective date, during which the transaction's credit risk
profile could deteriorate, we have capped our ratings assigned to
the notes."
The class A and E notes can withstand stresses commensurate with
the assigned ratings.
For the class F notes, S&P's credit and cash flow analysis indicate
that the available credit enhancement could withstand stresses
commensurate with a lower rating.
However, S&P has applied its 'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a
'B- (sf)' rating on this class of notes.
The ratings uplift for the class F notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs we have rated and that have
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 23.73% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 4.51 years), versus if it was to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.51 years, which would result
in a portfolio default rate of 14.43%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
tranche defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe that our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the class A
to F notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes, based on four
hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P regards the exposure to environmental, social, and governance
(ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly in line
with its benchmark for the sector.
Primarily due to the diversity of the assets within CLOs, the
exposure to environmental credit factors is viewed as below
average, social credit factors are below average, and governance
credit factors are average.
For this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being
related to certain activities. Accordingly, since the exclusion of
assets from these industries does not result in material
differences between the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the
sector, no specific adjustments have been made in S&P's rating
analysis to account for any ESG-related risks or opportunities.
Otranto Park CLO is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade borrowers. Blackstone
Ireland Ltd. manages the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate
A AAA (sf) 272.80 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.30%
B AA (sf) 46.20 27.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.80%
C A (sf) 26.90 21.39 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.10%
D BBB- (sf) 32.50 14.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.05%
E BB- (sf) 19.80 9.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.40%
F B- (sf) 13.20 6.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.24%
Sub notes NR 35.90 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A and B notes address timely
interest and ultimate principal payments. The ratings assigned to
the class C, D, E, and F notes address ultimate interest and
principal payments. The payment frequency switches to semiannual
and the index switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch
event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
PRPM FUNDIDO 2025-2: S&P Assigns Prelim. B-(sf) Rating on F Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to PRPM
Fundido 2025-2 DAC's class A, B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, E-Dfrd, and
F-Dfrd notes. At closing, the issuer will also issue unrated class
G and RFN notes.
S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings address the timely payment of
interest and the ultimate payment of principal on the class A
notes. Our preliminary ratings on the class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd,
E-Dfrd, and F-Dfrd notes address the ultimate payment of interest
and principal on these notes, and timely payment of interest when
they become the most senior class of notes outstanding." Unpaid
interest will not accrue additional interest and will be due at the
notes' legal final maturity.
Credit enhancement for the rated notes will comprise mainly
subordination. A fully funded liquidity reserve fund will be
available from closing to meet revenue shortfalls on the class A
and B-Dfrd notes when they become the most senior class
outstanding.
The provisional pool of EUR345.6 million was originated by multiple
lenders, with the main ones being Caixabank, S.A., Banco de
Sabadell S.A. (Sabadell), Abanca Corporacion Bancaria S.A.
(Abanca), and Cajamar Caja Rural S.C.C. (Cajamar). The assets are
first and lower-ranking reperforming mortgages secured primarily on
residential properties.
63% of the borrowers have had their loans restructured in the past.
In a stressed economic environment, there is increased probability
of these borrowers going back into arrears.
Within the provisional pool, more than 43% of the loans are at
least one month in arrears, with 28.2% of these borrowers being
more than three months in arrears. S&P views these borrowers as
having a higher risk of default.
The primary administrators, Caixabank, Abanca, Sabadell, and
Cajamar, are experienced servicers with well-established servicing
systems and policies. Additionally, given the material percentage
of assets (28.27%) that are currently in more than 90 days arrears,
Pepper Spanish Servicing, S.L.U will act as special servicer on
these assets and master servicer of the overall portfolio. Finally,
for the most complicated positions that will likely follow a legal
foreclosure, a specialized asset manager, Hispania Asset Management
(HAM), will conduct recovery activities. At closing, HAM will
manage about 8.2% of the loans.
Preliminary ratings
Class Prelim. rating* Class size (%)
A AAA (sf) 60.50
B-Dfrd* AA (sf) 4.75
C-Dfrd* A- (sf) 5.25
D-Dfrd* BBB (sf) 2.00
E-Dfrd* BB- (sf) 3.00
F-Dfrd B- (sf) 2.50
G NR 22.00
RFN NR 1.66
**S&P's preliminary rating on this class considers the potential
deferral of interest payments.
NR--Not rated.
Dfrd--Deferrable.
===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================
ASTANA MOTORS: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Astana Motors Finance TOO's (AMF)
Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B' from 'B-' and
National Long-Term Rating to 'BB(kaz)' from 'BB-(kaz)'. The
Outlooks are Stable.
Key Rating Drivers
The upgrade reflects a notable improvement in AMF's leverage in
2H24-1H25 and the resilience of its profitability against slower
asset growth.
AMF's Long-Term IDR is driven by its Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP), reflecting its strong profitability, moderate leverage and
good asset quality. The rating also considers AMF's much smaller
scale than international peers', its limited funding flexibility
and a short record of performance through the cycle.
Niche Leasing Franchise: AMF is a small leasing company providing
both finance leasing (end-1H25: 67% of total assets) and operating
leasing (24%) of vehicles - largely cars - exclusively in
Kazakhstan. AMF provides leasing services to SMEs and corporate
clients, with the latter accounting for most of its operating
leasing portfolio.
Expansion to Slow: AMF's growth since 2020 has been rapid, with its
finance lease portfolio increasing ninefold and its operating lease
portfolio sixfold. Its increasing size has improved AMF's economies
of scale and overall profitability, but Fitch expects the growth to
slow due to its already material market share and a tougher
economic environment.
Resilient Asset Quality: AMF's impaired/gross receivables ratio
increased to 2.4% at end-2024, with provisioning dipping to 62%.
The metrics subsequently recovered to just under 1% and 97%,
respectively, at end-1H25 after the company successfully cured
several large problem leases. AMF's fleet is largely passenger cars
(85%), which are liquid in comparison to many leased assets,
mitigating its exposure to residual value risk. Fitch expects
tightening macroeconomic conditions to weigh on asset quality but
any increase in provisioning costs should be absorbed by still
healthy operating profits.
Low Impairment Charges Support Profitability: Resilient, high
margins, low impairment charges and contained operating expenses
all contribute to AMF's strong profitability. Its pretax
income/average assets ratio was a strong 6%-8% in 2021-2025 (1H25:
7.1%), and profitability remains a credit strength. AMF has yet to
show it can maintain its strong profitability through the cycle,
but its performance in 1H25 remained strong despite limited asset
growth. Fitch expects profitability to weaken in 2026 due to margin
compression while remaining adequate for the rating.
Adequate Leverage: AMF's leverage has improved in 2022-1H25, after
historically high levels. Gross debt/tangible equity was 5.2x at
end-2024 (end-2023: 7.7x), before improving further in 1H25 to
4.4x. However, Fitch expects AMF to start distributing a material
portion of net income from 2026, which would moderate further
capital generation.
Concentrated Funding, Limited Flexibility: AMF sources most of its
funding from the large local bank, ForteBank. It also has open
lines with another local bank and the government development fund.
Management considers potential diversification of funding to local
bonds or international financial institutions, but it might result
in higher funding costs. AMF's adequate asset/liability structure
with balanced tenors and predictable cash outflows mitigates risk
from tight liquidity.
Parent Correlation: Fitch believes AMF's credit profile is
correlated with that of its parent, Astana Motors Company LLP (AM),
the largest car dealership in Kazakhstan. However, AMF's autonomous
funding access, the absence of cross-acceleration clauses between
AMF and AM's debt, modest franchise diversification, and its fairly
independent management mean AMF's creditworthiness can be assessed
separately from AM's.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- An increase in AMF's gross debt/tangible equity to above 7x,
particularly if driven by losses
- A deterioration in asset quality, with Stage 3 and Stage 2
exceeding 10%, or large credit losses
- Signs of significant worsening of the funding profile of AMF or
of the broader group
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of the IDR is unlikely in the near term. In the longer
term, seasoning of the business model and development of AMF's
franchise, with a widening of the client base and revenue streams,
plus an improvement in AMF's leverage ratio to below 3x while
maintaining tight control over impairment charges and operating
efficiency, could lead to positive rating action.
Improvement in creditworthiness compared with local peers would
result in an upgrade of the National Long-Term Rating.
ADJUSTMENTS
The 'b+' asset quality score is below the 'bb' implied score due to
the following adjustment reason: risk profile and business model
(negative).
The 'b+' earnings and profitability score is below the 'bbb'
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: portfolio
risk (negative).
The 'b' capitalisation and leverage score is below the 'bb' implied
score due to the following adjustment reason: risk profile and
business model (negative).
The 'b-' funding, liquidity and coverage score is above the 'ccc'
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: cash
flow-generative business model (positive).
ESG Considerations
AMF has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure due
to ownership concentration and related key person risk, plus a high
volume of transactions with related parties, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the rating in
conjunction with other factors.
Fitch has revised AMF's ESG Energy Management score to '3' from '2'
to reflect fuel efficiency of the fleet becoming more relevant for
its credit standing, while still having minimal impact on the
rating.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Astana Motors
Finance TOO LT IDR B Upgrade B-
ST IDR B Affirmed B
Natl LT BB(kaz) Upgrade BB-(kaz)
=============
M O L D O V A
=============
MOLDOVA: S&P Assigns 'BB-/B' Sovereign Credit Ratings
-----------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Oct. 10, 2025, assigned its 'BB-/B' long-
and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings
to Moldova. The outlook is stable. The transfer and convertibility
(T&C) assessment is 'BB'.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that Moldova's growth
will gradually strengthen over the next one-to-two years and its
net general government debt will remain contained in a global
context, despite its projection of a moderate public
investment-driven increase.
The outlook also reflects S&P's view that the government will
remain committed to reforms needed to advance Moldova's accession
to the EU, while regional geopolitical risks, including concerning
the breakaway territory on the left (eastern) side along the flow
of the Dniester River (the Left Bank, also referred to as
Transnistria or Pridnestrovie), do not escalate.
Downside scenario
S&P said, "We could lower our ratings on Moldova if fiscal
performance turned out significantly weaker than our baseline
projection, underpinning a faster increase in public sector
leverage and debt servicing costs. This could be the case, for
example, if social-related spending or demographic pressure exerted
a more pronounced strain on government spending. This could also
happen if growth rebound that we have projected doesn't fully
materialize because of reform slippages or climate-related risks
adversely affecting agricultural performance.
"We could also lower the ratings if the Russia-Ukraine war spills
over into Moldova, but we currently view the likelihood of that as
very low."
Upside scenario
S&P said, "We could raise the ratings if Moldova's balance of
payments vulnerabilities diminished, while per capita income and
economic diversification improved.
"We could also raise the ratings if reforms related to Moldova's EU
accession negotiations strengthened the country's institutional
checks and balances and enhanced economic policymaking, while
regional geopolitical risks moderated."
Rationale
Institutional and economic profile: S&P projects that growth will
strengthen following recent weak performance
-- Moldova's economy is dominated by basic sectors, including
agriculture and light manufacturing, while income levels are modest
in a global context: S&P projects per capita GDP at $8,500 for
2025.
-- S&P forecasts that after stagnating in 2024, growth will
strengthen to 1.2% this year and 3.0% from 2027.
-- Moldova's institutional arrangements are characterized by
shortcomings while public opinion remains divided over the
country's preferred direction either as more pro-EU or pro-Russia.
Also, there are geopolitical risks from the Left Bank breakaway
region and the war in Ukraine, with which Moldova has a direct
border.
Moldova's economy is small in a European context and continues to
depend on the performance of key trade partners, most of which are
in the EU. The country has a population of 2.4 million as of 2024,
and S&P projects GDP per capita at $8,500 in 2025, which is less
than half that of Bulgaria--the EU member with the lowest per
capita income. As of 2024, Moldova's largest contributors to GDP
were wholesale and retail trade (15%); real estate (8%);
manufacturing, including textiles and auto parts production (7.7%);
and agriculture (7%, including grains, fruit, vegetables, and wine
production).
Moldova is a founding member of the Russia-dominated Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS) but has effectively withdrawn from the
organization. Its economy has been increasingly reorienting toward
the EU, especially after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in
2022. As of 2024, 8% of Moldova's goods exports were to the CIS,
down from 35% in 2014.
S&P said, "We expect broad policy continuity following the
incumbent PAS' narrow retention of its parliamentary majority at a
general election at the end of September 2025. Over the past five
years, Moldova has been governed by a pro-EU president, Maia Sandu.
Her PAS party had controlled a comfortable 63 seats (out of 101) in
Moldova's unicameral parliament, but this fell to 55 seats after
the election.
"We anticipate the administration will remain focused on fighting
corruption, enacting reforms, and progressing on Moldova's path
toward EU membership. The country received EU candidate status in
mid-2022 with negotiations officially opening in mid-2024, together
with Ukraine. The authorities target EU accession in the next five
years, but it remains to be seen if this is achievable, given the
much slower negotiating and reform progress, for instance, for
other EU candidate countries in the Balkans. Nevertheless,
consistent reform implementation and closer alignment with the EU
has the potential to strengthen Moldova's governance system and
economic policymaking. The country has maintained a Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU for 11 years and
already implemented parts of EU Acquis (the common EU law).
"Despite upside potential from reforms linked to Moldova's EU
accession process, we view the country's current institutional
arrangements as comparatively weak. Moldova's society remains split
with large parts of the population favoring closer integration with
and membership in the EU, while a significant proportion advocates
for closer relations with Russia, based on past historical,
cultural, and energy ties. There have been reports of Russian
interference in both last year's presidential and this year's
parliamentary elections in Moldova. Conversely, the PAS government
has been accused of limiting access to voting for the Moldovan
diaspora in Russia, given that only two polling stations opened in
Moscow in contrast to many polling stations operating on election
day in Europe (with the likely more pro-European and pro-PAS views
of that part of the diaspora).
"In our view, Moldova also faces elevated external security risks
around its Left Bank breakaway region. Moldova and the breakaway
Left Bank (supported by the Russian military) fought a war in the
early 1990s, after which the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian
Republic (PMR) was unilaterally proclaimed on the eastern side (the
left side along the flow) of the Dniester River. There are no
countries that officially recognize PMR as a sovereign state but it
remains actively supported by Russia, which has a peacekeeping
force stationed locally. There is also a unilaterally imposed
border by the Pridnestrovian authorities between the region and the
rest of Moldova, but the flow of people and goods in and out of the
region remains fairly smooth, given Moldova's position that the
region is part of Moldova and there are therefore no migration
controls on the Moldovan side. However, the region has a de facto
separate government as well as separate fiscal arrangements,
currency, and banking system and is not included in the economic
and financial statistics for Moldova. The Left Bank's population is
estimated at about 360,000 compared to the rest of Moldova's 2.4
million, with many regional residents having Moldovan passports and
commuting freely."
S&P's forecasts assume that the regional status quo will prevail,
but there are risks that the conflict could resume under a scenario
of larger-scale Russian involvement. Given Moldova's border with
Ukraine, there are also tail risks of the Russia-Ukraine war
spilling over into Moldova, but it currently views the likelihood
of this as very low.
Moldova's economic performance has been volatile post-pandemic. The
economy contracted almost 5% in 2022 with the war's onset as energy
prices and inflation spiked (and Moldova had to promptly diversify
away from Russian gas supplies). The economy subsequently staged a
modest 1.2% rebound in 2023 and stagnated in 2024, this time on
account of drought and resulting weak performance of the key
agricultural sector, which saw output contraction of almost 20% in
real terms.
Given the more favorable weather conditions in 2025, we expect the
economy to stage a rebound with growth of 1.2% as the agricultural
sector's performance firms up. The economy already posted a
sequential quarterly rebound of 1.4% in the first quarter and 1.6%
in the second quarter, driven by investment and consumption, while
net exports contributed negatively. Moldova has limited direct
exposure to the U.S. (2% of total goods exports) but could be
exposed to indirect effects of tariffs and the wider risks of
European economic performance, given that about 80% of Moldova's
goods exports flow to the EU (especially Romania, at 32% of the
total), while the country is to some degree also linked into German
auto supply chains.
S&P said, "Beyond 2025, we forecast that Moldova's economic growth
will accelerate to 2.2% in 2026 and further to 3.0% from 2027. We
expect this pickup in growth will be supported by the easing of
previous setbacks, including agricultural sector downturn and
another increase in energy prices from early 2025, when Moldova had
to start purchasing electricity from abroad (as opposed to buying
the majority of its electricity from the Left Bank as previously
because Russia stopped gas supplies to the gas-fired power station
located there).
"We also expect growth will be supported by the EU's new financing
package for Moldova, the Growth Plan. The EUR1.9 billion package of
long-term loans and grants is tied to reform implementation and
will predominantly finance infrastructure projects (roads,
transport, and health care, among others). Since 2022, Moldova also
had a funded arrangement with the IMF: the Extended Fund Facility
and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, with cumulative funding
of close to $1 billion disbursed to date (about 5% of GDP). The
current program expires in October 2025, and we understand that the
authorities are looking into a successor arrangement with the IMF.
"In our view, Moldova's long-term economic potential will be held
back by the persistent outward migration of its population. The
trend has accelerated since 2022, likely linked to high inflation
and the search for better employment opportunities abroad. The
declining population could hamper the development of economic
sectors and ability of companies, including foreign ones, to hire
needed workers. This could underpin additional pressure on public
finances as pension and health care costs increase."
Flexibility and performance profile: Moderate public debt in a
global context and some monetary policy flexibility partly offset
the weak balance of payments
-- S&P considers Moldova's net general government debt moderate in
a global context and project it will rise to 43% of GDP by 2028
from 34% at end-2024.
-- The country's balance of payments position is weak, with
headline reported current account deficits averaging 15% of GDP
over 2022-2024.
-- The National Bank of Moldova (the central bank) targets
inflation at 5% annually with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1.5
percentage points, and we consider the Moldovan leu's exchange rate
regime a managed float.
Moldova ran contained general government deficits averaging 1.3% of
GDP in the five years leading up to the pandemic, but deficits have
widened since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Specifically,
the general government deficit averaged 4% of GDP over 2022-2024 on
account of rising public spending, including on public sector
employment (28% growth) and social benefits (33% growth). Spending
outpaced revenue growth over the period (a 20% increase). Much of
the spending increase reflects the upward indexation of pensions
and salaries, given inflation's peak of almost 30% in 2022.
Spending on subsidies to smoothen the full pass-through of higher
energy prices to the population also contributed, as did higher
interest spending on government debt.
S&P said, "We forecast fiscal deficits will stay elevated, at close
to 5% of GDP annually through 2028, but the reasons for the
deficits will change. We anticipate a moderation in spending growth
as we forecast inflation will average 5% over the period, while a
looser average monetary stance will underpin slightly lower
interest payments. At the same time, Moldova is set to implement
the Growth Plan package unveiled by the EU at the end of 2024 and
worth an expected EUR1.9 billion (about 10% of GDP). About EUR400
million is expected as grants, but the rest would represent
long-term loans at favorable conditions, tied to infrastructure
projects and specific reforms authorities are planning. We expect
fiscal deficits to moderate from 2028 onward, helping stabilize
public debt as a share of GDP.
"Considering the resulting increase in debt, we still view
Moldova's public leverage as moderate in a global context. We
forecast net general government debt will reach 43% of GDP by 2028,
up from 35% of GDP at end-2025. Of the total government debt stock,
as of mid-July 2025, about 63% is external, which, in turn, is
predominantly to international financial institutions with no
commercial foreign debt outstanding. Moldova's largest foreign
creditors are the IMF (33% of external debt), the World Bank (26%),
and the EU (15%). We understand that the authorities are
considering issuing a Eurobond, but the timeframe is not clear.
"We view Moldova's balance of payments position as vulnerable, with
high reported current account deficits and substantial dependence
on remittances. Remittances have proven resilient in recent years,
averaging 10% of GDP over 2022-2024 and mostly reflecting inflows
from Moldovans working in Europe and Israel, with a long-running
decline in remittances from the CIS region. Accounting for these
reported remittances, Moldova's reported headline current account
deficits still measured a very high 15% of GDP on average over the
past three years.
"We consider that the headline reported current account deficits
overstate external risks. Historically, these deficits have been
almost entirely covered by the residents' drawing down on their
foreign assets, but these drawdowns have not been reflected in the
statistics of residents' stock of foreign savings abroad. This
leads us to conclude that these drawdowns likely represent de facto
remittances or ongoing foreign-earned wage transfers from foreign
bank accounts (and their inclusion in the calculations will
therefore significantly reduce the effective current account
deficit). Fundamentally, we think that, despite the officially
reported data, Moldova in effect is not running current account
deficits averaging as high as 15% of GDP (equivalent to $3 billion
annually) because financing for deficits of this magnitude would
not be available.
"Although we view the effectiveness of National Bank of Moldova's
monetary policy as constrained, we think the central bank still
commands a degree of policy flexibility. The central bank targets
an average inflation rate of 5%, with a tolerance band of plus or
minus 1.5 percentage points and, beyond occasional interventions to
smooth volatility, does not target a specific exchange rate level.
Consequently, we classify the leu's exchange rate as a managed
float. Monetary policy transmission channels are still constrained
by the domestic financial sector's small size (50% of GDP) and the
limited development of the local-currency denominated debt capital
market. Positively, the dollarization/euroization of deposits has
consistently declined, dropping to 36% at end-2024 from a peak of
53% in 2015.
"Moldova's inflation peaked at 29.0% in 2022 and we project it at
7.7% in 2025 before a gradual decline toward the central bank's
target of 5.0% by 2027." The much larger inflation peak than in
other economies in Central and Eastern Europe primarily reflects a
more basic structure of Moldova's consumer basket used in the
inflation index calculation, with higher weights for basic items
like food and energy, the prices for which rose pronouncedly.
Moldova's banking sector remains small and funded by domestic
deposits, with almost no foreign debt. The pace of domestic credit
growth picked up from 2024, but the stock of credit outstanding
remains low, at under 30% of GDP. The banking sector is fairly
concentrated, with the top 4 banks accounting for 70% of system
assets. There is a significant presence of foreign groups,
including Bulgarian and Hungarian banks, as well as stakes in local
banks by international financial institutions such as the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Moldova's banking sector went through significant stress in 2014,
when an estimated $1 billion disappeared from the system in a fraud
scandal. The authorities and central bank had to subsequently step
in to compensate domestic depositors, leading to a rise in public
debt in 2016. S&P considers that the sector's supervision and
regulation have markedly improved since then.
In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Rating Component Scores above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
New Rating
Republic of Moldova
Sovereign Credit Rating BB-/Stable/B
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
HILL FL 2023-1: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Rating on EUR13.5MM Cl. D Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the ratings of ten notes and
affirmed ratings of two notes in HILL FL 2023-1 B.V., Hill FL
2024-1 B.V. and Hill FL 2024-2 B.V. The rating action reflects
worse than expected collateral performance.
Issuer: HILL FL 2023-1 B.V.
EUR393.8M Class A Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 25,
2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR27M Class B Notes, Downgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 25,
2025 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR15.7M Class C Notes, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
EUR13.5M Class D Notes, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 25,
2025 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Issuer: Hill FL 2024-1 B.V.
EUR405M Class A Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR22.5M Class B Notes, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR15.7M Class C Notes, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on
Mar 25, 2025 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
EUR6.8M Class D Notes, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Issuer: Hill FL 2024-2 B.V.
EUR400.5M Class A Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR22.5M Class B Notes, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR18M Class C Notes Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Mar
25, 2025 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
EUR9M Class D Notes, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 25,
2025 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is prompted by increased key collateral
assumptions, namely the portfolio default assumptions and Portfolio
Credit Enhancement ("PCE") due to worse than expected collateral
performance for all three transactions.
Moody's notes that more recent issuances of Hill transactions have
performed relatively worse. Given the weakness of performance for
newer vintages, Moody's have revised the PCE of each transaction to
reflect the relative credit quality of the underlying portfolios
and the volatility of portfolio performance. For all three
transactions Moody's have increased the default assumption as a
percentage of original pool balance.
Hiltermann Lease B.V. continues to exercise the repurchase option
of newly defaulted leases at par on a monthly basis for all three
transactions.
Following amendments executed in February 2025, any excess of the
purchase price of defaulted assets above the actual sale proceeds
of the vehicles is paid by the issuer to the servicer in a
subordinated position below Class E interest payment. The issuer
will ultimately bear the net realized loss, however senior notes
benefit from the structural subordination of the realized loss
payments in a very junior position in the waterfall.
All transactions are currently paying pro-rata. As Moody's have
stated in previous rating actions, the repurchase of the defaulted
assets may lead to certain transaction performance triggers, such
as the sequential payment trigger, being breached later than they
otherwise would have been. Continued pro-rata amortization prevents
the build-up of credit enhancement under the senior notes, making
them sensitive to the performance deterioration in the underlying
portfolios.
Revision of Key Collateral Assumptions:
HILL FL 2023-1 B.V.
The performance of the transaction has deteriorated since the last
rating action on March 2025. Total delinquencies have increased in
the past year, with 90 days plus arrears currently standing at
1.17% of current pool balance. Cumulative defaults currently stand
at 6.07% of original pool balance up from 4.47% at the last rating
action.
For HILL FL 2023-1 B.V., the current default probability assumption
is 7.1% of the current portfolio balance and is equivalent to 8.6%
of original pool balance.
Moody's reassessed Moody's Portfolio Credit Enhancement ("PCE")
assumption for this transaction. PCE reflects the credit
enhancement consistent with the highest rating achievable in the
Netherlands. As a result, Moody's increased the PCE assumption to
16% from 15%.
Hill FL 2024-1 B.V.
The performance of the transaction has deteriorated over the past
year. Total delinquencies have increased in the past year, with 90
days plus arrears currently standing at 1.24% of current pool
balance. Cumulative defaults currently stand at 4.94% of original
pool balance up from 2.56% at the last rating action.
For Hill FL 2024-1 B.V., the current default probability assumption
is 11.1% of the current portfolio balance and is equivalent to
11.0% of original pool balance, previously 8.5%.
Moody's reassessed Moody's Portfolio Credit Enhancement ("PCE")
assumption for this transaction. PCE reflects the credit
enhancement consistent with the highest rating achievable in the
Netherlands. As a result, Moody's have increased the PCE assumption
to 20% from 17%.
Hill FL 2024-2 B.V.
The performance of the transaction has deteriorated over the past
year. Total delinquencies have increased in the past year, with 90
days plus arrears currently standing at 1.13% of current pool
balance. Cumulative defaults currently stand at 2.7% of original
pool balance, up from 0.51% at the last rating action.
For Hill FL 2024-2 B.V., the current default probability assumption
is 12.0% of the current portfolio balance and is equivalent to
11.7% of original pool balance, previously 9.0%.
Moody's reassessed Moody's Portfolio Credit Enhancement ("PCE")
assumption for this transaction. PCE reflects the credit
enhancement consistent with the highest rating achievable in in the
Netherlands. As a result, Moody's have increased the PCE assumption
to 22% from 19%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Auto Loan- and Lease-Backed ABS" published in
June 2025.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that
is better than Moody's expected, (2) an increase in available
credit enhancement and (3) improvements in the credit quality of
the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected,
(3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and
(4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction
counterparties.
IGNITION TOPCO: S&P Lowers ICR to 'CCC-' on Debt Restructuring Risk
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on
IGM Resins' parent, Ignition Topco B.V, and on the issue rating on
IGM's EUR225 million term loan B (TLB) due in July 2027 to 'CCC-'
from 'CCC+', its issue rating on the EUR150 million subordinated
loan due in December 2028 to 'C' from 'CCC-', and withdrew the
ratings at the issuer's request. The outlook at the time of the
withdrawal was negative.
Challenging market conditions and weaker forecast earnings are
adding pressure to liquidity and covenant headroom. S&P said, "We
expect that difficult market conditions will persist through the
remainder of 2025, with price increases failing to fully offset
subdued customer demand and lower volumes. We anticipate that a
market recovery will not materialize until the second half of 2026.
We therefore revised our base-case scenario downward; we then
forecast a revenue decline of 1%-3% in 2025, followed by a modest
recovery of 2.5%-3.5% in 2026. While IGM substantially improved its
profitability in 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to lower
restructuring costs, higher margins, and better site utilization,
we expect that EBITDA will be EUR10 million-EUR15 million in 2025
and 2026, below the company's budgeted EUR20 million. We think
that, absent a material improvement in operating conditions or
external financial support over the coming six months, IGM faces a
heightened likelihood of undertaking an exchange offer or similar
restructuring that we classify as distressed. Specifically, IGM's
cash balance has steadily decreased throughout the year, from
approximately EUR31.0 million in January 2025, to EUR24.5 million
in August, and the company has informed lenders that, without
improved earnings in 2026, cash could fall below the EUR15 million
minimum cash covenant. We acknowledge that IGM is implementing
proactive measures to bolster liquidity, including expanding its
factoring program, tightening customer payment terms, and enhancing
inventory planning." However, if these benefits do not materialize
in a timely manner, they may not fully offset the impact of weaker
earnings. This could significantly increase the risk of a covenant
breach and of a liquidity shortfall within six months, unless
extraordinary sponsor support, covenant relief, or significant
operating improvements are realized. Currently, the company
indicates it is too soon to initiate negotiations with lenders
regarding potential covenant waivers or engage with shareholders
for additional support. To date, IGM has remained current on its
cash interest payments and has been compliant with covenant tests
as of August 2025.
S&P said, "At the time of the withdrawal, the negative outlook
reflected our view that IGM will continue to burn cash over the
next six months given its lower volumes pressuring earnings, high
interest burden, and decreasing cash balance. With covenant
headroom narrowing and only EUR24.5 million of cash on balance
sheet as of August 2025, we think the company faces a high risk of
a liquidity crisis absent sponsor support, covenant relief, or
restructuring."
S&P could have lowered the ratings on IGM if:
-- Liquidity deteriorated further such that S&P viewed default as
virtually certain, for example, if the company breaches its minimum
cash covenant without remedial measures;
--IGM undertook a debt exchange or other restructuring transaction
that S&P viewed as distressed and tantamount to a default; or
-- The company missed a scheduled interest or principal payment.
S&P could have revised the outlook to stable or raised the ratings
if IGM demonstrated a materially improved liquidity position and
significantly reduced the risk of a near-term default. This might
have occurred if the company:
-- Secured an equity injection or other extraordinary sponsor
support that bolstered liquidity;
-- Obtained covenant relief or reduces the debt cost burden on
terms that S&P does not classify as distressed; or
-- Achieved a meaningful improvement in its operating performance,
beyond S&P's expectations, such that IGM substantially improved its
earnings and cash flow.
OCI NV: S&P Withdraws 'BB' LongTerm Issuer Credit Rating
--------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings withdrew its 'BB' long-term issuer credit rating
on OCI N.V. at the issuer's request. The outlook was developing at
the time of the withdrawal.
=========
S P A I N
=========
AUTOVIA DE LA MANCHA: Moody's Ups Rating on Secured Debt to Ba1
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2 the underlying rating
of the EUR110 million guaranteed senior secured bank credit
facility (the Facility), due 2031 raised by Autovia de la Mancha
S.A. (Aumancha), a Spanish toll-road operator and special purpose
company. The outlook has been changed to stable from positive.
The rating action follows Moody's announcement on 30 September 2025
of an upgrade of Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha's
(Castilla-La Mancha, Baa3 Stable) rating, and change in outlook to
stable from positive.
The backed rating on the Facility, considering the benefit of a
guarantee of scheduled payments of principal and interest provided
by Assured Guaranty UK Limited (A1 Stable), is unchanged at A1.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade reflects the rating upgrade of the offtaker, the region
of Castilla-La Mancha, and outlook change to stable from positive.
The rating action reflects that Aumancha's rating is constrained by
the credit quality of Castilla-La Mancha as payer under the
concession agreement.
Aumancha is a shadow toll road which relies on payments from the
region of Castilla-La Mancha. Since 2012, Castilla-La Mancha's
payments have been supported by two central government liquidity
mechanisms, the Fondo para la Financiacion de los Pagos a
Proveedores (FPPP) and the Fondo de Liquidez Autonomico (FLA).
Moody's expects that Castilla-La Mancha will continue to make
timely payments to Aumancha, as it has over the last fourteen
years, and that the region will continue to receive liquidity
support as necessary from the Government of Spain (A3 Stable).
Aumancha has demonstrated strong traffic performance over the past
3 years with volumes outperforming 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
Specifically, traffic strongly rebounded in 2021 and has reached
the highest traffic band under the concession agreement for both
light and heavy vehicles every single year since 2022.
The Ba1 rating on the underlying Facility remains constrained by
(1) the credit quality of Castilla-La Mancha as payer under the
concession agreement; (2) Aumancha's high leverage; and (3) general
exposure to traffic risk and low inflation.
The high leverage and the exposure to traffic risk are mitigated by
the robust traffic profile, Aumancha's satisfactory debt service
coverage ratios (DSCRs) even during the pandemic, and strong
liquidity which would allow the project to withstand possible
revenue shortfalls.
A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
issuer(s) has been conducted during a rating committee.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
Upward rating pressure may arise if (1) the rating of Castilla-La
Mancha were upgraded; together with (2) Aumancha's traffic volumes
and financial metrics not falling significantly short of Moody's
Base Case.
Conversely, downward rating pressure may arise if (1) forecast
traffic growth and/or forecast inflation were to be significantly
revised downwards relative to Moody's Base Case, leading to a
deterioration in shadow toll revenues ; (2) operating, maintenance
and lifecycle cost assumptions were to prove inadequate; or (3) the
rating of Castilla-La Mancha was downgraded.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Privately Managed
Toll Roads published in December 2022.
The Ba1 underlying rating is three notches below the Baa1 scorecard
indicated output under the methodology. This three-notch
differential is driven by the rating of Castilla-La Mancha, which
imposes a cap on the underlying rating.
In June 2003, Aumancha entered into a 30-year concession agreement
with Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, to build, operate
and maintain a 52.3 km shadow toll road, the Toledo to Consuegra
section of the Autovia de los Vinedos motorway, linking the cities
of Toledo and Tomelloso in central Spain.
CIRSA FINANCE: S&P Rates New EUR1BB Senior Secured Notes 'BB-'
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB-' issue rating and '3' recovery
rating (65% recovery prospects) to the proposed EUR1 billion senior
secured notes to be issued by Cirsa Finance International S.a.r.l.,
a finance subsidiary of international gaming operator Cirsa
Enterprises S.A. (Cirsa; BB-/Stable/--).
The proposed issuance consists of an undefined combination of
fixed- and variable-rate senior secured notes that the company
intends to use to refinance its debt and extend its maturity
profile, specifically repaying the EUR383 million and EUR615
million fixed-rate senior secured notes due in 2027, and related
transaction fees. S&P said, "The proposed transaction will be
leverage neutral, therefore our adjusted leverage metric forecast
remains unchanged at 3.8x for 2025 and 3.5x for 2026. We expect
free operating cash flow generation should improve owing to the
lower interest rate on the proposed debt."
Issue Ratings--Recovery Analysis
Key analytical factors
-- The proposed EUR1 billion senior secured notes are rated 'BB-'.
The recovery is '3' indicating S&P's expectation of meaningful
recovery (50%-70%; rounded estimate: 65%) in a default scenario.
-- Cirsa's existing senior secured noted are rated 'BB-', in line
with the issuer credit rating, and the recovery rating is unchanged
at '3'. This includes Cirsa's EUR375 million fixed-rate notes due
2028 and EUR450 million fixed-rate notes due in 2029, pro forma the
repayment of the EUR383 million and EUR615 million fixed-rate
notes.
-- Subsidiary LHMC Finco 2's EUR600 million payment in kind (PIK)
toggle subordinated notes due 2030 are rated 'B'. S&P said, "The
recovery rating is '6', indicating our expectation of negligible
recovery (0%-10%; rounded estimate 0%) in a default scenario, since
the PIK instrument does not benefit from the same security package
and is structurally subordinated to the senior secured notes."
-- In S&P's hypothetical default scenario, it assumes unfavorable
regulatory changes and worsening economic conditions in Latin
America and Europe.
-- S&P values Cirsa as a going concern, given its leading market
positions in its key markets and ability to renew its gaming
licenses.
-- For S&P's recovery analysis, it considers the EUR275 million
revolving credit facility (RCF) ranking ahead of the other secured
debt, although S&P does not rate it.
Simulated default assumptions
-- Year of default: 2029
-- Jurisdiction: Spain
Simplified waterfall
-- Emergence EBITDA: EUR282 million
-- EBITDA multiple: 6.0x
-- Net enterprise value after administrative costs (5%): EUR1.61
billion
-- Estimated priority claims: EUR61 million
-- Value available to first-lien senior secured claims (RCF):
EUR1.55 billion
-- Estimated first-lien senior secured claims (RCF): EUR243
million
-- Value available to second-lien senior secured notes claims:
EUR1.30 billion
-- Estimated second-lien senior secured notes claims: EUR1.88
billion
--Recovery range: 50%-70% (rounded estimate 65%)
--Recovery rating: 3
-- Value available to LHMC Finco 2 subordinated PIK notes claims:
EUR0
-- Estimated LHMC Finco 2 subordinated PIK notes claims: EUR626
million
--Recovery expectations: 0%-10% (rounded estimate: 0%)
--Recovery rating: 6
*All debt amounts include six months of prepetition interest and
include the RCF, which is assumed to be 85% drawn at default.
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
AMBER HOLDCO: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Amber HoldCo Limited's (Applus)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Stable
Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the senior secured rating of the
financing subsidiary, Amber Finco Plc, at 'BB-', with a Recovery
Rating of 'RR3'.
The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect Fitch's expectation that
EBITDA leverage will return within the current negative rating
sensitivity of 6.0x, despite a temporary increase to about 6.5x pro
forma following the APEM Group acquisition, which was largely
funded by a EUR350 million fungible term loan B (TLB).
Fitch views the APEM acquisition as complementary to Applus'
business. However, the acquisition does not alter its view of the
overall business risk profile due to its limited size. Other credit
metrics are also temporarily weaker although they remain within the
rating sensitivities.
Key Rating Drivers
Delayed Deleveraging Trajectory: Fitch expects EBITDA leverage to
be 7.0x (6.5x pro forma) at end-2025 after the TLB add-on, with
APEM assumed not to contribute the group until the start of 2026.
This compares with the previous EBITDA leverage forecast of 6.2x.
This level is high for the rating and above the negative rating
sensitivity of 6.0x, but Fitch expects it to be around this level
at end-2026.
Fitch believes Applus remains on a deleveraging path over the
medium term due to EBITDA growth from higher revenue and
operational improvements. However, this has been delayed compared
with previous expectations. Fitch expects further bolt-on M&A but
another large, debt-funded transaction would most likely lead a
negative rating action.
APEM Acquisition Complements Business Profile: Applus' acquisition
of UK-based APEM, a global provider of environmental consulting
services, for about EUR385 million, complements its business
profile. There is significant potential for synergies, primarily
driven by identified cross-selling opportunities between APEM's and
Applus respective client portfolios. Fitch believes the acquisition
further broadens the companies end-market exposure and geographical
footprint and is margin accretive. However, it does not change the
leverage capacity of the issuer at the current rating.
Acquisitions to Continue: Fitch expects Applus' free cash flow
(FCF) will support further bolt-on M&A over the medium term in
emerging markets with higher growth prospects, consistent with its
strategy to broaden its global footprint and expand end-markets.
Execution risk is moderate, given Applus' record since 1996 and
profitability improvements. Applus has completed five acquisitions
since being taken private and announced a sixth with APEM. Fitch
does not forecast further additional large, debt-funded M&A, which
would lead to a negative rating action if undertaken before
leverage declines to within sensitivities.
Solid FCF Generation: Fitch expects Applus to generate only a
neutral or slightly positive FCF margin in 2025, reflecting
moderate working capital outflow due to large contract wins in
Saudi Arabia and Latin America. From 2026, Fitch forecasts FCF to
rise above 2.5%, supported by EBITDA growth, flat capex and stable
working capital outflows. Fitch expects the group to prioritise
bolt on M&A and deleveraging over shareholder returns. Therefore,
Fitch does not expect any common dividend payments to be made other
than minority dividend payments as part of the IDIADA concession.
Solid Revenue Growth: Revenue rose by 4.4% year on year to EUR1,143
million in 1H25, with higher revenue across three divisions, while
IDIADA was flat. This follows a revenue rise of 7.3% in 2024.
Applus continues to benefit from positive industry trends that are
driving increased demand for services across several sub-sectors,
including cybersecurity, electric vehicles and advanced driver
assistance systems. Fitch expects revenue to continue increasing.
Growth will also be supported by the bolt-on M&A strategy.
Sound Business Diversification: Applus' solid business profile is
supported by strong service offerings, broad end-market
diversification, a reputation for technical expertise and
committed, skilled employees. Regulations encouraging the
transition towards a low-emission economy also support demand for
Applus' services in the energy and automotive sectors. Its business
profile is further supported by a high share of contracted,
short-term revenue for mission-critical, non-discretionary
services, which enhances resilience to end-market cyclicality.
Peer Analysis
Applus does not have direct Fitch-rated peers. Instead, Fitch
compares Applus with peers within the broader business services
market portfolio rated by Fitch, such as Assemblin Caverion Group
AB (B/Positive), Polygon Group AB (B/Negative), Irel BidCo S.a.r.l.
(B+/Rating Watch Negative) and Albion HoldCo Limited (BB-/Stable).
Applus' pro forma leverage of about 6.5x following APEM transaction
xis weaker than that of similarly rated peers, such as Assemblin,
Irel BidCo S.a.r.l. and Albion HoldCo. However, Applus' ability to
generate solid FCF is a rating strength reflecting its healthy
margins and asset-light business model.
Applus' contract length is shorter than that of some service
companies. However, the long-term IDIADA contract means its
contract tenor is aligned with the 'BB' rating median in the
service sector criteria. Applus also has more diversified market
coverage than 'B' rating category peers, such as Assemblin and
Polygon, which are exposed to construction or building material
industries that can be more cyclical.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case for the Issuer:
- Revenue CAGR of 5.8% for 2025-2028, supported by organic growth
and bolt-on M&As including APEM contributing from 2026;
- Steady improvement in EBITDA margin to sustainable above 16% in
2027, driven by business-mix changes and operational improvements;
- Net working capital outflows averaging 1.4% of revenue during
2025-2028;
- Annual capex equivalent to 4% of revenue
- Bolt-on M&A of EUR80 million a year during 2026-2028, following
EUR440 million in 2025;
- No common shareholder returns (dividends paid to minorities
related to the IDIADA concession).
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes Applus would be reorganised as a
going concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
- Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
- Total debt is EUR2,521 million (EUR1,425 million TLB after the
October 2025 add-on, EUR895 million senior secured notes, EUR1
million other debt and EUR200 million senior secured RCF, all
ranking equally among themselves).
- Fitch uses Fitch-adjusted EBITDA of EUR280 million (previously
EUR250 million), updated to reflect the six acquisitions completed
since the company went private, to reflect its view of a
sustainable, post-reorganisation EBITDA on which Fitch bases the
enterprise valuation.
- Fitch uses a multiple of 5.5x to estimate the going-concern
EBITDA to reflect the group's post-reorganisation enterprise value.
The multiple incorporates Applus solid business profile in a
resilient sector that has limited cyclicality, good customer
diversification, high customer retention rates and its position as
one of the leading companies operating in the sector.
- The allocation of value in the liability waterfall results in
recovery corresponding to 'RR3' for the senior debt facilities,
supporting debt rating at 'BB-', one notch above the IDR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Shortening of contract length or reduced renewal rates affecting
revenue visibility;
- EBITDA gross leverage above 6x;
- FCF margin below 1%;
- EBITDA interest cover below 2.5x; all on a sustained basis;
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Increasing the share of long-term contracted business, extending
the average contract length, and improving revenue visibility
- EBITDA gross leverage below 5x;
- FCF margin above 3%; all on a sustained basis.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Applus reported EUR175 million in cash on its balance sheet at
end-June 2025, prior to Fitch's adjustment of EUR33 million for
cash that may not be readily available. Cash on hand is likely to
fall to EUR140 million following the APEM acquisition. The group
also has an undrawn EUR200 million RCF. Fitch forecasts positive
FCF from 2026, which provides additional liquidity over the medium
term and is likely to be sufficient to cover further bolt-on M&A.
Most of Applus' debt consists of the EUR1,425 million TLB
(including the announced EUR350 million add-on) and EUR895 million
of senior secured notes. These facilities mature in about four
years, resulting in no material scheduled debt repayments until
July 2029.
Issuer Profile
Applus is a global leader in testing, inspection and certification
sector with a broad range of regulatory and safety-driven services
across four divisions: energy and industry, automotive, IDIADA and
laboratories.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Amber Finco Plc
senior secured LT BB- Affirmed RR3 BB-
Amber Holdco Limited LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
AMBER HOLDCO: S&P Affirms 'BB-' ICR & Alters Outlook to Negative
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-' issuer credit ratings on
Amber Holdco PLC (Applus) and Amber Finco and its 'BB-' issue-level
rating and '3' recovery rating on the group's now EUR2.32 billion
secured debt.
S&P revised the outlook to negative from stable, reflecting Applus'
weaker credit metrics with limited room for underperformance or
further significant debt-funded acquisitions beyond its base case
in the next 12 months.
Applus is raising EUR350 million of incremental debt fungible with
its EUR1.08 billion term loan B due in June 2029 through core
financing subsidiary Amber Finco PLC to fund its acquisition of
APEM Group.
The acquisition will further diversify the business, and its pro
forma reported EBITDA margin of about 24% should be
margin-accretive for the combined group.
However, deleveraging will slow to adjusted debt to EBITDA of about
6.5x as of fiscal 2025 (estimated 6.2x pro forma for expected
annualized earnings from APEM) from S&P's previous forecast of
5.0x.
S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our expectation for slower
deleveraging. While Applus' acquisition of U.K.-based environmental
consultancy business APEM will bring diversification benefits and
enhanced EBITDA margins for the combined group, it will lead to
significantly weaker credit metrics than we previously forecast. An
incremental EUR350 million fungible tap to the term loan B and
EUR35 million cash on balance sheet will fund the acquisition. We
anticipate adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 6.5x and adjusted funds
from operations (FFO) to debt of just over 9% for fiscal 2025
(ended Dec. 31, 2025), or about 6.2x and 10% respectively on a pro
forma basis. Leverage will reduce to 5.5x and FFO to debt close to
11% in fiscal 2026, weak for the rating.
"Applus will establish a fifth segment for environmental services.
This will strengthen its capabilities linked to sustainability,
offer cross-selling opportunities between the respective blue-chip
client portfolios, and act as a platform for growth. While we
expect only about a 6% total group EBITDA contribution in fiscal
2026, adding APEM highlights modest improvement in diversification.
Services will be linked to environmental impact assessments in the
planning and operations of infrastructure projects, water quality
testing, biodiversity and aerial surveys, or studies for renewable
projects offered to blue-chip clients across the U.K., Australia,
and Ireland.
"More than 60% of APEM's revenues will typically come from programs
with contract lengths of 2-4 years that support revenue stability.
In addition, APEM's workforce is highly skilled (including a large
share with a doctorate degrees) that underlies the complexity of
services and lifts entry barriers. We expect that APEM will
contribute to Applus' EBITDA margin profile (pro forma
company-reported margin of about 24% from about 20% in fiscal
2024). Operating performance has been strong with a 55% mostly
organic revenue growth from 2021-2024 and about 30% during the
first half of 2025. Ongoing favorable market drivers linked to
stricter environmental regulation and energy transition will bring
solid organic expansion increase from APEM and build a base for
more bolt-on acquisitions related to environmental services.
"We expect continued robust organic revenue and EBITDA margin
expansion. Fundamental market tailwinds and a good market position
that allows for new contract wins support this. Organic expansion
of 5.5% year over year across most segments was solid in the first
half of 2025. Tariff increases boosted the automotive segment,
whereas laboratories improved on growth from cyber security related
work and conformity assessments. Applus' reported adjusted EBITDA
margin increased 100 basis points year over year due to a positive
mix effect and early signs of realized synergies from operational
initiatives. In our base-case forecast, we assume a like-for-like
revenue increase of about 5% during 2025, underpinned by new
contract wins in Brazil and Saudi Arabia within the energy and
industry segment.
"We forecast an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 18% in 2025
(compared to 17% during 2024), with expansion mostly coming from a
positive product mix and expansion in higher-margin segments such
as laboratories. We also expect cost savings to come from
operational improvements targeted at procurement and central cost
reductions, partially offset by exceptional costs of EUR15 million
linked to operational improvements and acquisition integration.
Thereafter, we forecast like-for-like revenue growth of about 4%-5%
in 2026 and 2027 on the back of market tailwinds linked to energy
transition, maintained stricter regulation and safety standards,
and cross-selling opportunities toward its new environmental
services segment.
"We forecast free operating cash flow (FOCF) of about EUR50 million
in 2025. High working capital outflow of EUR60 million from new
contract wins in Brazil and Saudi Arabia required investments will
be a key factor." FOCF increases above EUR150 million on modest
capital expenditure (capex) of about EUR100 million and working
capital outflow of about EUR30 million due to expected new contract
wins and organic revenue growth. FFO cash interest coverage remains
comfortably above 2.0x over the next two years.
Ample liquidity and a high cash balance will support ongoing
bolt-on acquisitions. S&P said, "Our base case includes EUR100
million of acquisition spending annually, funded through its high
cash balance of EUR140 million pro forma for the transaction and
FOCF generation. This is in line with the strategy of the business
to gain new capabilities and services as well as strengthen
footprints while the industry remains fragmented. We anticipate
bolt-on acquisitions to target the laboratories and new
environmental services segments, using APEM as a platform
investment. Applus' liquidity profile remains solid with a fully
undrawn EUR200 million revolving credit facility, high cash
balance, positive forecast FOCF, and no near-term maturities."
The negative outlook reflects Applus' weaker credit metrics with
limited room for underperformance or further significant
debt-funded acquisitions beyond S&P's base case in the next 12
months.
S&P may lower its rating on Applus over the next 12 months if:
-- Adjusted debt to EBITDA remains significantly above 5x on a
sustained basis with no clear prospects for improvement. This could
occur if the company pursues an aggressive financial policy,
resulting in material debt-funded acquisitions, shareholder
distributions significantly above S&P's base-case forecasts or
higher than expected integration costs;
-- Adjusted FFO to debt remains below 10%; or
-- FOCF is significantly below our expectations.
S&P could revise its outlook to stable if Applus:
-- Demonstrates strong EBITDA expansion leading to materially
deleverage its balance sheet toward 5.5x with FFO to debt above 10%
in the next 12 months; and
-- Successfully integrates APEM and realizes operational
efficiency initiatives.
ASTON MARTIN: S&P Lowers LongTerm ICR to 'CCC+', Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings said that in contrast to its previous
expectation, it expects that Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings
PLC (AML) will post heavy cash burn again in 2025.
A failure to deliver on planned improvement in cash flow generation
in 2026 could raise concerns about AML's liquidity position, absent
any additional cash injection from shareholders.
S&P therefore lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on AML and
its issue rating on its senior secured notes L to 'CCC+' from
'B-'.
The stable outlook reflects A&P'a expectations that AML will
maintain an adequate liquidity position despite challenging market
conditions, mainly thanks to the improved product mix. S&P's base
case continues to assume access to cash through equity injections
if needed.
AML's weak wholesale volumes in the first nine months of 2025,
coupled with expectations of fewer Valhalla deliveries in the
fourth quarter of 2025 will prevent the company's free operating
cash flow (FOCF) from turning positive in the second half of 2025.
The company will miss its target and continue to burn cash in the
second half of 2025. AML's reduced costs and capital expenditure
(capex) will mitigate, but not fully offset, the impact of lower
wholesale volumes. S&P said, "Which we expect to decline by 5%-10%
in 2025 compared to 2024. The revised wholesale volume expectations
for 2025 mostly originate from weaker-than-expected demand
including in both North America, with the continuing tariff impact,
and Asia-Pacific (including greater China). An improved product mix
will not support 2025 earnings, as AML expects to deliver only
about 150 Valhallas to its customers in the fourth quarter of 2025,
down from the previous market consensus expectation of about
200-250 units, due to delays in the completion of vehicle
engineering and in the finalization of mandatory homologation
approvals. We assume a decline of 10%-11% in revenue for 2025. This
should lead to an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA (after
reclassification of capitalized research and development as
operating expenses) of about negative GBP50 million-GBP75 million,
after negative GBP25 million in 2024. We have also revised our FOCF
expectations for 2025 to about negative GBP380 million-GBP400
million, similar levels to 2024."
AML's liquidity profile remains adequate, despite large free cash
outflows. As of end-June 2025, the company's cash balances amounted
to about GBP124 million, including about GBP103 million of headroom
under its GBP170 million revolving credit facility (RCF). In the
first six months of 2025, shareholders injected about GBP53 million
of cash to support the company through a challenging market
environment. In addition, the sale of the company's stake in AMR
GP, the Aston Martin Aramco Formula 1 team, completed in third
quarter 2025, contributed about GBP110 million of cash on top of
the shareholder injection. S&P said, "We expect AML will cover its
cash needs over the next 12 months, including capex of about GBP375
million. We do not expect breaches of covenants on its GBP170
million RCF as quarterly testing only occurs if drawings under the
RCF less cash available exceeds GBP68 million. The covenant was not
tested at the end of June 2025."
Meeting expected Valhalla delivery targets in 2026 will be key to
improving profits and cash flows. Valhalla's high price
range--starting from about GBP850,000--and its above average group
gross margin contribution, should support the company's profits and
cash flows more consistently throughout the year given the more
evenly profile of expected quarterly deliveries. S&P said, "We
forecast that AML's revenues will increase to about GBP1.8 billion
in 2026, with the company's adjusted EBIT of close to GBP100
million and limited cash burn. We will monitor the demand for AML's
renewed range of cars, and the company's progress in increasing its
production, the key enabler to delevering its capital structure."
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectations that AML
will maintain an adequate liquidity position despite challenging
market conditions, as the company benefits from an improved product
mix with Valhalla deliveries unwinding over the next couple of
years. It also assumes AML's ability to access cash through equity
injections if needed.
"We could lower our rating on AML if its liquidity deteriorates.
This could occur if the company faced internal operating setbacks
delaying deliveries of its Valhalla models during 2026, leading to
higher-than-expected cash burn, not offset by additional support
from shareholders.
"We could raise our rating on AML if it successfully ramps up its
production supported by sound demand for its model lineup, leading
to its funds from operations (FFO) cash interest coverage
increasing to above 1.5x, and, its FOCF swinging to positive; while
maintaining adequate liquidity."
BONSAI COLLECTIVE: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------
Bonsai Collective Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-006648, and
Manjit Shokar and Bai Cham of Quantuma Advisory Limited were
appointed as administrators on Sept. 30, 2025.
Bonsai Collective engaged in the publishing of computer games.
Its registered office is c/o Begbies Traynor, Innovation Centre
Medway, Maidstone Road, Chatham, Kent, ME5 9FD
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Bai Cham
Manjit Shokar
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Innovation Centre Medway
Maidstone Road, Chatham
Kent, ME5 9FD
For further information, contact:
Jamie Mayhew
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Tel No: 01634-393004
01634-975440
CPUK FINANCE: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B(sf)' Rating on B8-Dfrd Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B (sf)' preliminary credit rating
to CPUK Finance Ltd.'s new fixed-rate GBP285 million class B8-Dfrd
notes with an expected maturity date in August 2032.
The rating S&P assigns at closing will depend upon receipt and
satisfactory review of all final transaction documentation,
including legal opinions, and conditions precedent being met.
The new issuance translates to a leverage ratio of about 8.1x for
the class B8-Dfrd notes, based on fiscal 2025 S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of GBP278.6 million. S&P expects Center
Parcs' operating performance to remain resilient despite ongoing
macroeconomic pressure, resulting in S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
leverage of below 8.0x in fiscal 2026.
The transaction blends a corporate securitization of the U.K.
operating business of the short break holiday village operator
Center Parcs Holdings 1 Ltd., the borrower, with a subordinated
high-yield issuance. It originally closed in February 2012 and has
been tapped several times since, most recently in November 2024.
The transaction will likely qualify for the appointment of an
administrative receiver under the U.K. insolvency regime. When the
events of default allow security to be enforced ahead of the
company's insolvency, an obligor event of default would allow the
noteholders to gain substantial control over the charged assets
before an administrator's appointment, without necessarily
accelerating the secured debt, both at the issuer and at the
borrower level.
CPUK Finance will issue the new fixed-rate class B8-Dfrd notes
totaling GBP285 million. These new notes will be contractually
subordinated to the outstanding class A notes and rank pari passu
with the existing class B6-Dfrd and B7-Dfrd notes. The interest on
these instruments is fully deferrable and fully subordinated,
similar to the existing class B6-Dfrd and B7-Dfrd notes. S&P's
ratings on these junior notes only address ultimate payment of
interest and principal. The financial default covenant--where the
class B free cash flow (FCF) debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
cannot be less than 100%--will also apply to the B8-Dfrd notes.
The issuer will use the proceeds of the new class B8-Dfrd notes to
make further advances to the borrowers under the issuer-borrower
loan agreement. The borrowers will use the loan proceeds to repay
the existing class B5 loan. In turn, the issuer will use the
proceeds of the prepayment of the class B5 loan to fully prepay the
corresponding class B5-Dfrd notes. The borrowers will use the
remaining class B8 loan proceeds to cover transaction fees and
expenses due under the class B5-Dfrd notes and distribution to
shareholders. The payment of accrued and unpaid interest up to the
prepayment date will be funded from other funds available to the
borrowers.
ENERGY EXPERTS: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
The Energy Experts (NE) Ltd was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number: CR-2025-NCL-000117, and Iain David Nairn and Sean
Williams of Leonard Curtis were appointed as administrators on
Sept. 30, 2025.
The Energy Experts (NE) specialized in electrical installation.
Its registered office and principal trading address is at 11/12
Kingsway North, Team Valley Trading Estate, Gateshead, NE11 0EN.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Iain David Nairn
Sean Williams
Leonard Curtis
Unit 13, Kingsway House
Kingsway Team Valley Trading Estate
Gateshead, NE11 0HW
For further details, contact:
Tel: 0191 933 1560
Email: recovery@leonardcurtis.co.uk
FGP LUFTON: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------
FGP Lufton Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in
Birmingham, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-BHM-000518, and Kirstie Jane Provan and Mark Robert Fry of
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP were appointed as administrators on
Oct. 1, 2025.
FGP Lufton Limited is a manufacturer.
Its registered office is at 4th Floor, 24 Old Bond Street, London
W1S 4AW
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Kirstie Jane Provan
Mark Robert Fry
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
For further details, contact:
Paul Boutonnet
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
E-mail: Paul.Boutonnet@btguk.com
Tel No: 020-7516-1500
K HOUGH CONTRACTORS: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------------
K Hough Contractors Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice, No CR2025006472 of 2025,
and Julie Anne Palmer and Michael Hall of Begbies Traynor (Central)
LLP were appointed as administrators on Sept. 29, 2025.
K Hough Contractors is a building contractor.
Its registered office is at Lakeside Offices, The Old Cattle
Market, Coronation Park, Helston, Cornwall, TR13 0SR
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Julie Anne Palmer
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Units 1-3 Hilltop Business Park
Devizes Road, Salisbury
Wiltshire SP3 4UF
-- and --
Michael Hall
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Winslade House
Winslade Park Avenue
Manor Drive, Exeter EX5 1FY
Any person who requires further information may contact:
Nikita Iggulden
Tel No: 01392 260800
Email: Nikita.Iggulden@btguk.com
NEW CINEWORLD: Moody's Affirms B3 CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings affirmed the B3 corporate family rating and B3-PD
probability of default rating of NEW CINEWORLD MIDCO LIMITED (Regal
Cineworld), the UK-based multinational cinema operator.
Concurrently, Moody's affirmed a B3 rating on its $1.9 billion
backed senior secured first lien term loan due 2031, as well as a
Ba3 rating on the $350 million backed super senior secured first
lien revolving credit facility (RCF) due 2029 at Crown Finance US,
Inc. The outlook for both entities has changed to positive from
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The outlook change to positive from stable reflects improving
operating performance across the cinema industry, supported by a
stronger film slate and the diminishing impact of the Screen Actors
Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists
(SAG-AFTRA) strike, which had previously disrupted content
pipelines. Regal Cineworld has demonstrated solid recovery through
the first half of 2025, with 20% growth in admissions in the second
quarter of 2025, year-over-year, higher average ticket prices (19%
increase in Q2'25 YOY), and increased concession spend per patron
(12% in Q2'25 YOY), all contributing to stronger revenue
generation.
Regal Cineworld's credit metrics have improved, with reducing
leverage (4.9x debt/EBITDA expected for 2025 and 4.5x for 2026 down
from 5.3x for last twelve months (LTM) Q2'25 (all metrics are
Moody's adjusted) and improving, although still pressured, coverage
(0.9x EBITA/interest expected for 2025 and 1.1x for 2026, up from
0.8x for LTM Q2'25), driven by operational efficiencies and a more
favourable content environment. Still, Moody's expects Regal
Cineworld to consume cash in 2025 as it completes its recliner
installations.
The affirmation of the B3 corporate family rating reflects Regal
Cineworld's exposure to discretionary consumer spending and the
inherent volatility of the film release calendar. However, the
positive outlook signals Moody's expectations that continued
industry recovery and internal performance gains could lead to
further improvement in credit quality over the next 12–18
months.
LIQUIDITY
Regal Cineworld benefits from adequate liquidity supported by over
$300 million of cash at June 30, 2025, an undrawn $350 million
backed super senior secured first lien RCF and no near-term
maturities until 2029. Still, the company faces material capital
expenditures to maintain and improve its facilities, including the
first phase of recliner seat conversions. Positively, Regal
Cineworld had raised $250 million through a rights offering in 2024
to prefund the costs of these conversions.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade Regal Cineworld's ratings if (1) there is a
continued recovery in revenues and profitability to at least
pre-pandemic levels, with Moody's-adjusted FCF to debt increasing
to positive; (2) Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA leverage is
maintained below 4.5x; and (3) management adheres to conservative
financial policies which include the absence of debt-funded
acquisitions.
The positive outlook indicates that a ratings downgrade is unlikely
over the next 12-18 months. However, Moody's could downgrade Regal
Cineworld's ratings if (1) cinema attendance levels do not return
toward pre-pandemic levels (2) the company's liquidity profile
deteriorates; or (3) the company does not strengthen its credit
profile maintaining its Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA above 6x and
generating negative free cash flow.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
Regal Cineworld was founded in 1995 and was listed on the London
Stock Exchange between May 2007 and July 2023. The company grew
through expansion and acquisition to become the second-largest
cinema group in the world. Regal Cineworld operates around 8,113
screens across 664 theatres in 10 countries including the US, the
UK, Ireland, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,
Bulgaria, Romania and Israel. The company was delisted on 28th July
2023, as part of the emergence from bankruptcy and is now
controlled by its lenders.
OXBRIDGE LTD: Forvis Mazars Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------
Oxbridge Ltd fka OBX LTD was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in
Birmingham, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-000528, and Guy Robert Thomas Hollander and Rebecca Jane
Dacre of Forvis Mazars LLP were appointed as administrators on Oct.
1, 2025.
Oxbridge Ltd, trading as Oxbridge Home Learning, specialized in
education.
Its registered office is c/o Forvis Mazars LLP, The Pinnacle, 160
Midsummer Boulevard, Milton Keynes, MK9 1FF
Its principal trading address is at Spaces The Mailbox, Royal Mail
Street, Birmingham, B1 1RS
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Guy Robert Thomas Hollander
Forvis Mazars LLP
30 Old Bailey
London EC4M 7AU
-- and --
Rebecca Jane Dacre
Forvis Mazars LLP
The Pinnacle
160 Midsummer Boulevard
Milton Keynes, MK9 1FF
Contact details for Administrator:
The Joint Liquidators
Tel: 012 1232 9603
Alternative contact: Lottie Atkins
PARK HOUSE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Park House Residential Developments Limited was placed into
administration proceedings in the Business and Property Courts in
England & Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-004015, and Nicholas
Simmonds and Bai Cham of Quantuma Advisory Limited were appointed
as administrators on Sept. 26, 2025.
Park House Residential, trading as Parkhouse Developments,
specialized in business support service activities.
Its registered office is at 15 West Street, Brighton, BN1 2RL and
it is in the process of being changed to 1st Floor, 21 Station
Road, Watford, WD17 1AP
Its principal trading address is at Park House, 87 Burlington Road,
New Malden KT3 4LP
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nicholas Simmonds
Quantuma Advisory Limited
1st Floor, 21 Station Road
Watford, Herts, WD17 1AP
-- and --
Bai Cham
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Innovation Centre Medway
Maidstone Road, Chatham
Kent, ME5 9FD
For further information, contact:
Glenn Adams
Tel No: 01923 954172
Email: Glenn.Adams@quantuma.com
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
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