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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Monday, October 20, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 209
Headlines
B U L G A R I A
EUROINS: Fitch Ups Insurer Finc'l. Strength Rating to BB-
G R E E C E
INTRALOT SA: Moody's Upgrades CFR to 'B2', Outlook Stable
PUBLIC POWER: Fitch Rates New EUR775MM Green Bond Due 2030 BB-(EXP)
I R E L A N D
ALBACORE EURO VI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
AVOCA CLO XXX: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Class F-R Notes
AVOCA CLO XXX: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
CARLYLE EURO 2017-3: Moody's Affirms 'B3' Rating on Class E Notes
CLAVEL RESIDENTIAL 4: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating on Cl. F Debt
CVC CORDATUS XI: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
CVC CORDATUS XI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Cl. F-R-R Notes
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
RRE 1 LOAN: S&P Assigns BB-(sf) Rating on Class D-R-R Notes
N E T H E R L A N D S
DYNAMO MIDCO: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B' LongTerm IDR to Stable
IGNITION MIDCO: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR225MM Term Loan to Caa2
T U R K E Y
ANADOLU EFES: S&P Lowers ICRs to 'BB', Outlook Negative
COCA-COLA ICECEK: S&P Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm ICs, Outlook Stable
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ACRE INVEST: Verulam Advisory Named as Administrators
BLERIOT MIDCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
BUILDING SERVICES: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
CHESTER A PLC: Moody's Hikes Rating on Class E Notes From Ba3
GLOBAL ACADEMIC: Fitch Assigns 'BB-(EXP)' IDR, Outlook Stable
INDIGO FURNISHINGS: Antony Batty Named as Administrators
INTERSTELLAR MUSIC: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
LIVE UNLIMITED: Kallis & Co. Named as Administrators
OCS PARCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR & Alters Outlook to Negative
RENEWABLE MICRO: bk plus Named as Administrators
TOWD POINT 2024-GRANITE 6: Fitch Lowers Rating on F Notes to B-
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B U L G A R I A
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EUROINS: Fitch Ups Insurer Finc'l. Strength Rating to BB-
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Insurance Company Euroins AD's - the
main operating entity of Bulgarian Euroins Insurance Group AD
(Euroins) - Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating to 'BB-', from
'B+'. The Outlook is Stable.
The upgrade reflects improvement in Euroins' capitalisation,
combined with its expectation that financial performance and
reserve adequacy will stabilise.
Euroins' rating continues to reflect its still weak capitalisation
and poor reserve adequacy, which are partly offset by its strong
franchise in the insurance market in Bulgaria.
Key Rating Drivers
Capital Injection Supports Weak Capitalisation: Euroins' Prism
Global score increased to 'Strong' at end-2024, from 'Somewhat
Weak' at end-2023, and the group's Solvency II (S2) ratio rose to
159% (end-2023: 126%), due to a BGN175 million capital injection
from its majority shareholder Eurohold Bulgaria AD (Eurohold,
Long-Term IDR B/Stable) in December 2024. This led to a more than
doubling of the capital base to BGN330 million from end-2023. In
addition, 1H25, Euroins issued BGN57 million of perpetual
subordinated loans with a first call date after five years. Fitch
expects Euroins' S2 ratio to be at least 140% at end-2025.
Improving Reserve Adequacy: Fitch regards reserve adequacy as weak
because IFRS-accounted net technical reserves fall below S2
best-estimate reserves. Based on S2 reporting, IFRS-accounted
technical reserves were 95.4% of S2 best-estimate reserves at
end-2024 (end-2023: 94.6%). Fitch, however, considers that Euroins
has improved its reserving standards and that reserve deficiencies
resulting in capital depletion are less likely. Fitch expects
reserve adequacy to remain stable at end-2025.
Lower Investment Risk: The Fitch-calculated risky-assets/capital
ratio reduced to 101% at end-2024 (end-2023: 158%), following the
capital injection. Euroins invests a large portion of fixed-income
securities in unrated domestic instruments, which Fitch considers
high risk in its analysis. Fitch expects the risky asset ratio to
slightly increase due to investment growth, but to remain below
125% at end-2025.
Strong Franchise in Domestic Market: Its assessment of Euroins's
business profile is driven by its market-leading position in
domestic insurance, which is partially offset by its small
operating scale by international standards.
Stabilised Financial Performance: Euroins has had volatile
financial performance between 2020 and 2023, caused by several
one-offs; however, this volatility has reduced. The company
reported net income of BGN4 million for 2024 (2023: BGN23 million)
and BGN9 million for 1H25. Fitch expects it to report small net
income in 2025 and 2026.
Ownership Neutral to Rating: Fitch rates Euroins on a standalone
basis, based on its expectation that its capital is well protected
from repatriation and unexpected capital extraction is unlikely.
The company must adhere to solvency regulations in Bulgaria under
the S2 regime to ensure continuity of its insurance activities.
This supports its rating approach, but its standalone assessment
also takes operational linkages to other group entities into
account. Eurohold has shown its willingness to support Euroins by
the recent capital injection, despite its weak credit profile;
however, its assessment does not factor in an expectation for
further support.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- S2 ratio falling below 120% for a sustained period
- Risky assets ratio weakening to above 150%
- Negative reserve experience resulting in capital depletion
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Sustained S2 ratio greater than 140%
- Risky assets ratio sustainably below 125%
- Continued positive reserve experience
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Insurance Company Euroins AD LT IFS BB- Upgrade B+
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G R E E C E
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INTRALOT SA: Moody's Upgrades CFR to 'B2', Outlook Stable
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Moody's Ratings has upgraded Intralot S.A.'s (Intralot or the
company) corporate family rating to B2 from Caa1 and its
probability of default rating to B2-PD from Caa1-PD. Concurrently,
Moody's have upgraded to B2 from B3 the instrument ratings of the
EUR600 million backed senior secured notes due 2031 and the EUR300
million backed floating senior secured notes due 2031 (together,
the new senior secured notes) both issued by Intralot Capital
Luxembourg S.A., an indirect subsidiary of Intralot. The outlook on
both entities is stable, previously the ratings were on review for
upgrade. This concludes the review for upgrade initiated on July
07, 2025.
On October 10, 2025, Intralot announced[1] the successful
completion of its acquisition of Bally's International Interactive
business (BII) from Bally's Corporation (Bally's, B2, ratings under
review) for an enterprise value of EUR2.7 billion. The acquisition
was funded through a mix of cash and shares considerations
amounting to EUR1.530 billion and EUR1.136 billion, respectively.
Following the completion of the transaction, Bally's becomes the
majority shareholder of Intralot and the latter is expected to
remain listed on the Athens stock exchange.
On October 08, 2025, Intralot announced[2] that it had successfully
executed the share capital increase. This equity raise resulted in
gross proceeds of around EUR429 million.
On October 08, and October 10, 2025, Intralot announced[3]
respectively the repayment in full of its company's EUR90 million
syndicated bond loan that was due in January 2026 and of the $184
million US term loan that was due in July 2026 (outstanding amounts
as of the end of June 2025).
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade of Intralot's CFR and instrument ratings to B2 reflects
the group's improved business profile and strengthened liquidity
following the completion of the BII acquisition. Short-term
refinancing risk has been addressed following the repayment in full
of the company's syndicated bond loan and US term loan that were
both due in 2026.
Pro forma for the transaction, Intralot's credit profile benefits
from a significant increase in scale and the contribution from
BII's established position in the UK online gaming market. The
company also benefits from broader products and services
diversification across the gaming sector with presence across
business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) segments.
Furthermore, Moody's anticipates that the acquisition will be
accretive to margins and to free cash flow generation, enhancing
the deleveraging capacity of the company.
At the same time, there is some geographical concentration in the
UK, which accounts for approximately 60% of the group's pro forma
revenue. The merger with BII also introduces integration risk. In
addition, Intralot will continue to be exposed to contract renewal
risk, because of the significance of certain key contracts, as well
as regulatory and fiscal risks inherent to the gaming industry.
Following the completion of the BII acquisition, Moody's expects
Intralot's Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to be around 4.3x on a
pro forma basis for the year 2025. Moody's forecasts solid revenue
growth from 2026 onwards supported by growth in both B2C and B2B
activities. Moody's expects the group's resulting EBITDA growth to
support a gradual reduction in leverage to below 4.0x on a
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage basis. There are however downside
risks to the company's EBITDA growth and deleveraging prospects in
the coming years in case Intralot's B2B division fails to renew
major contracts or to win new contracts.
The company's management indicates its willingness to adopt a
conservative financial policy following the completion of the BII
acquisition, targeting a mid-term steady-state net leverage ratio
of approximately 2.5x. However, on a pro forma basis for the year
2025 Moody's estimates that the group will achieve a
company-adjusted net leverage ratio above its mid-term target ratio
in the range of 3.0x to 3.5x.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Intralot will
exhibit revenue and EBITDA growth from 2026 onwards, supported by
growth in both B2C and B2B activities. It assumes that Intralot
will generate positive free cash flow, and that the company's B2B
segment will demonstrate its ability to renew major contracts and
win new ones over the next two to three years. Additionally, the
stable outlook assumes that the credit quality of Intralot's
majority shareholder, Bally's, will not deteriorate in a way that
would materially weaken Intralot's credit profile.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive pressures on Intralot's ratings could develop in case the
group builds a track record of strong revenue and EBITDA growth. An
upgrade on Intralot's ratings would require no material adverse
developments in the regulatory and fiscal frameworks that the group
is subject to in its main countries of operation, a decline in the
group's Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to well below 4.0x and a
Moody's-adjusted EBIT / Interest ratio comfortably above 3.0x. An
upgrade would also require the expectation that Intralot can
achieve Moody's-adjusted free cash flow generation in the
high-single digits in percentage terms, following periods of higher
capital requirements for new contracts in the B2B segment. Finally,
positive pressures on Intralot's ratings would also depend on an
assessment that the credit profile of its largest shareholder,
Bally's, does not pose a material risk to Intralot's standalone
credit quality or financial policy.
Negative pressures on the ratings could arise if (i) the free cash
flow generation of the combined group following the BII acquisition
remains subdued at low single-digit rates as a percentage of
Moody's-adjusted gross debt or if the group's liquidity weakens;
(ii) the company's financial performance is expected to deteriorate
because of regulatory environments headwinds or contract losses in
the B2B activities such that Moody's projects the group's
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to rise to above 5x; or (iii) the
credit quality of Intralot's majority shareholder Bally's
deteriorates such that it could weaken the credit profile of
Intralot due to potential support for its parent company.
LIQUIDITY
Intralot's liquidity is adequate and supported by an estimate of
around EUR180 million of cash on balance sheet following the
closing of the BII acquisition and a EUR160 million fully undrawn
revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in 2030. Part of the
company's EUR180 million cash balance is restricted under the
retail bond's debt service reserve account for a total combined
amount of around EUR10.4 million as of June 2025.
Intralot's liquidity is also supported by its strong free cash flow
generation that Moody's expects in the range of EUR80 million to
EUR130 million in the next 12-18 months before dividend
distributions. Moody's notes that Intralot's B2B division may have
substantial capital investments needs to support the start of
contracts renewals or new contracts which will negatively impact
free cash flow generation on a temporary basis.
Intralot is subject to maintenance financial covenants under its
Greek bank debt facility and its retail bond, and to a springing
financial covenant under its RCF. Moody's expects financial
covenants to be met.
Intralot's next significant debt maturity is the February 2028
maturity of its EUR130 million retail bond. Intralot's Greek local
bank debt facility is amortising until 2030.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Moody's considers governance factors to be key drivers of the
rating action, given the successful repayment in full of Intralot's
2026 debt maturities as part of the BII acquisition transaction
that resulted in an improved debt maturities profile. Intralot
targets a mid-term steady-state net leverage ratio of approximately
2.5x. Moreover, Intralot intends to maintain a dividend payout
ratio of 35% of its net income, adhering to the requirements set by
Greek law for publicly traded companies. The company also aims to
allow for higher distributions, depending on its performance and
capital structure.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Intralot's PDR is B2-PD, in line with its CFR, reflecting Moody's
assumptions of a 50% recovery rate as is customary for a capital
structure comprising a mix of bonds and bank debt. Intralot's
senior secured notes are rated B2, in line with the CFR. The senior
secured notes, which benefit from guarantees from operating
subsidiaries alongside the EUR460 million equivalent new GBP term
loan (GBP400 million) issued by Intralot Holdings UK Ltd and the
EUR200 million Greek local bank facility issued by Intralot Capital
Luxembourg S.A., rank junior to the EUR160 million RCF issued by
Intralot Capital Luxembourg S.A. and senior to the EUR130 million
retail bond issued by Intralot S.A.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming
published in September 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Following its acquisition of BII, Intralot is a multi-jurisdictions
gaming company providing B2C as well as B2B offerings. Intralot's
B2B activity has a significant presence in the US and provides
gaming systems and services to state and state-licensed lottery and
gaming organisations worldwide. The group's B2C business, which
came from the BII acquisition, is an online gaming operator in the
UK and Spain, but also manages a retail casino in the UK and
receives royalty payments from a legacy Asian business.
Intralot's company-reported revenue and EBITDA pro forma for the
combination of Intralot and BII were respectively EUR1.1 billion
and EUR425 million for the last twelve months ending in June 2025.
PUBLIC POWER: Fitch Rates New EUR775MM Green Bond Due 2030 BB-(EXP)
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Public Power Corporation S.A.'s (PPC;
BB-/Stable) upcoming proposed EUR775 million senior unsecured green
bond due 2030 an expected rating of 'BB-(EXP)'. The Recovery Rating
is 'RR4'.
The proposed issue is rated in line with PPC's 'BB-' Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) and outstanding senior unsecured notes and will rank
equally with PPC's other existing senior unsecured debt. The draft
terms of the proposed notes largely mirror the terms and conditions
of the outstanding notes. The proposed bond is not a
sustainability-linked bond (SLB).
PPC will use the proceeds, together with cash on balance sheet, to
redeem its EUR775 million sustainability-linked notes due in 2026
and pay related fees and expenses. It will use an amount equivalent
to the net proceeds to finance or refinance eligible green projects
in accordance with its green finance framework.
The final instrument rating is subject to the receipt of final debt
documentation confirming the information already received.
Key Rating Drivers
PROPOSED NOTES
Instrument Rating Aligned with IDR: The rating on the proposed
senior unsecured bond is in line with PPC's 'BB-' IDR and its
outstanding notes. The proposed bond will not be initially
guaranteed and will constitute unconditional, unsubordinated and
unsecured obligations of PPC. It will at all times rank at least
equally with PPC's all other present and future unsecured and
unsubordinated indebtedness. However, the new notes will be
subordinated to all existing and future secured indebtedness (to
the extent of the value of that security) and structurally
subordinated to all existing and future indebtedness of the
issuer's subsidiaries.
The notes' provisions mirror those of the existing bonds, which
supports the same instrument rating for the new notes.
Redemption Issue: PPC's proposed EUR775 million senior unsecured
bond will not increase gross debt as the proceeds will be used to
redeem its EUR775 million SLB due in 2026. Therefore, the proposed
issuance has a neutral impact on leverage ratios and structural
subordination risk within the group. PPC plans to maintain
structural subordination ratios within its threshold of
prior-ranking debt at 2.5x EBITDA during 2025-2027 by largely
funding renewables growth through holdco-level unsecured financing,
with specific funding arrangements for electricity distributor
HEDNO, Alexandroupolis combined cycle gas turbine, and Fibergrid at
the subsidiary level.
Limited Protection Through Covenant Package: The proposed notes
include customary high-yield provisions, i.e. limitations on
dividends payment, non-scheduled debt repayment or restricted
investments, albeit with wide "permitted payments" baskets. The
covenants will be removed if PPC achieves investment-grade credit
quality. They provide limited protection to bondholders at the
current rating, in its view. However, the company's self-imposed
financial target of net debt/EBITDA (not including trade
receivables securitisations and the HEDNO put option for Macquarie
in the net debt stock) at 3.0x-3.5x by 2027, is strong for its
'BB-' sensitivities.
ISSUER
Year-End Target Reaffirmed: EBITDA was strong at EUR1 billion
during 1H25 (up from EUR0.9 billion in 1H24) and provides good
visibility for the group's EUR2 billion target for 2025 (EUR1.8
billion in Fitch's forecast). The higher EBITDA is due largely to
higher electricity prices in both Greece and Romania and the full
contribution of Kotsolovos acquisition (April 2024), despite delays
in the implementation of new network usage charges for the
distribution activity in Greece (implemented in July 2025) and weak
wind output. PPC's reported net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 3.2x at
end-June 2025, below the self-imposed ceiling of 3.5x.
Unchanged Long-Term Strategy: PPC's updated business plan to 2027
continues to build on its more balanced integration between
generation and supply, also achieved by decommissioning lignite
plants by 2026 and expanding renewables in Greece and nearby
countries. PPC has reaffirmed its commitment to the financial
target of 3.0x-3.5x company-defined net debt/adjusted EBITDA
despite higher capex and the resumption of dividends from 2024.
Fitch forecasts EBITDA growth to EUR2.4 billion by 2027 from EUR1.8
billion in 2024, driven by integrated margin expansion and, to a
lesser extent, growth in regulated distribution driven by large
investments.
Business Plan Implementation Key: The expansion of the integrated
margin hinges on PPC's ability to increase renewables production
for its supply activity at a lower cost than market purchases, and
to retain pricing power among high-margin, low-voltage customers.
In line with this strategy, PPC targets the implementation of 5.6GW
of new renewables capacity for 2025-2027, which will replace 1.5GW
of loss-making lignite capacity and reduce excess supply volumes in
Greece and Romania.
FFO Leverage to Rise: Fitch expects funds from operations (FFO) net
leverage to increase to 5.2x on average for 2025-2027 from 3.9x in
2024, albeit still with good headroom under the 5.5x revised
negative sensitivity. Fitch forecasts free cash flow (FCF) to be
deeply negative at EUR1.3 billion on average for 2025-2027, due to
large investments in renewables, progress in the Alexandropolis
combined-cycle gas turbine, and investments in electricity
networks. PPC expects FCF to improve from 2027-2028, when major
renewables investments will be commissioned and start contributing
to EBITDA.
Standalone Approach: Fitch assesses as 'Strong' both the precedent
of support, due to PPC's legacy stock of state-guaranteed debt,
which is set to materially decrease, and contagion risk, due to
large supranational funding and Greek banks' exposure to PPC.
However, Fitch assesses decision-making and oversight, and the
preservation of public role as 'Not Strong Enough', given the
state's 35.3% ownership with no enhanced governing or voting
rights, which is in line with its assessment for most European
utilities. The overall assessment leads to a standalone rating
approach.
Peer Analysis
Domestic peer Metlen Energy & Metals S.A. (BB+/Stable) is smaller
than PPC in market share and scale. Metlen operates in the
metallurgy, construction, and power sectors, with power generation
and supply likely to contribute about 30% consolidated EBITDA on
average to 2028. Metlen has more gas-fired plants and no lignite
exposure. Its two-notches higher rating stems from lower forecast
EBITDA net leverage of 1.8x (2026-2027) than PPC's, which is
about5.0x.
Internationally, PPC's peers include Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD
(BEH; BB+/Stable; SCP: bb) and Societatea Energetica Electrica S.A.
(BBB-/Stable). BEH's FFO net leverage is 1.8x for 2024-2027,
substantially lower than PPC's, resulting in a stronger SCP. BEH
benefits from sovereign support from Bulgaria (BBB+/Stable).
Romanian network Electrica has a higher regulated EBITDA mix (80%
networks versus PPC's 40%) and lower leverage, averaging 4.0x for
2024-2026. However, Romania's regulatory environment is less
predictable. Fitch applies no notching to Electrica's or PPC's
ratings for support from the state.
PPC's integrated structure and strong domestic market position
align it with that of central European peers like PGE Polska Grupa
Energetyczna S.A. and ENEA S.A. (both BBB/Stable). These peers
share pollution challenges from coal but benefit from more stable
regulatory environments and lower leverage, explaining their higher
ratings than PPC's.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within its Rating Case for the Issuer
- EBITDA CAGR of 11% over 2024-2027
- Around 33TWh electricity supplied in the free market and 24.5TWh
of electricity production (excluding public service obligations
volumes) by end-2027 in Greece and Romania, which implies a gradual
reduction of its historically excess supply volume
- Average electricity baseload day-ahead market in Greece and
Romania to remain on average slightly above EUR100/MWh over
2025-2027 (Greece: EUR101.4/MWh and Romania: EUR100.3/MWh in 2024)
- Average unitary electricity selling price in Greece at around
EUR150/MWh for 2025-2027 (EUR153/MWh in 2024)
- Integrated margins at around EUR26/MWh on average over 2025-2027
(2024: EUR24/MWh; 2023: EUR30/MWh excluding low-margin high-voltage
customers)
- Phase-out of existing lignite-fired power plants in 2026
(including Ptolemaida V) and new Alexandroupolis combined-cycle gas
turbine unit to start operations in 2026
- Gradual ramp-up of renewables (excluding hydro) capacity by
end-2027 to 8.6GW in Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Italy, from 3GW
at end-2024, with output largely sold to PPC's customers in Greece
and Romania
- Regulated asset base increasing to EUR4.6 billion in Greece (from
EUR3.4 billion at end-2024) and EUR1.6 billion in Romania by
end-2027 (from EUR1.4 billion at end-2024)
- Supply volumes in Greece stable at around 25TWh to 2027
- Major unwinding of working capital to 2027, primarily occurring
in 2025
- Cumulative capex, net of customer grants, of EUR9.2 billion for
2025-2027
- Dividends to shareholders resumed from 2024, based on updated
dividend policy growing to EUR1/share by 2027 from EUR0.4/share in
2024. No new share buyback programme over 2025-2027 (existing
programme cash outflow is slightly above EUR200 million in
2024-2025).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could Collectively or Individually Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- FFO net leverage consistently exceeding 5.5x due to a more
aggressive-than-expected financial policy
- FFO interest coverage lower than 2.5x
- Slower-than-expected execution of the business plan to 2027,
including lower renewables or additional delays in lignite
phase-out and/or a worsened operating environment in Greece and
Romania, including failure to improve customer trade and state
receivables collections
- Failure to keep prior-ranking debt at around 2.5x consolidated
EBITDA in 2025-2026, which could lead to a one-notch downgrade of
the senior unsecured rating
Factors that Could Collectively or Individually Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- FFO net leverage below 4.5x on a sustained basis
- FFO interest coverage higher than 3.5x
- Successful completion of the 2025-2027 business plan, including
lignite phase-out and renewables expansion as planned, which could
lead us to relax rating sensitivities
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-June 2025, PPC had EUR1.8 billion of readily available cash
and cash equivalents. It also had a combined EUR3.4 billion of
unused revolver plus working-capital and capex facilities. This is
sufficient to cover debt maturities of EUR2.2 billion, including
the EUR775 million SLB that will be replaced by the proposed notes,
and negative FCF of around EUR1.7 billion for the 15 months to
end-2026.
Business plan execution to 2027 will require additional external
financing of around EUR3 billion, largely funded with EUR2 billion
of syndicated recovery and resilience facilities and EUR0.5 billion
project-financing already committed. Fitch believes PPC will
prioritise holdco funding over subsidiary debt and monitor
structural subordination (through downstreamed intercompany loans).
Prior-ranking debt was EUR3.6 billion or 45% of total debt at
end-June 2025, around 2.1x consolidated EBITDA.
Issuer Profile
PPC is the incumbent integrated utility in Greece and one of the
largest in Romania. Its generation portfolio consists of lignite
(to be decommissioned by 2026), gas-, oil-fired (regulated) and
hydro power plants, and a growing base of wind and solar plants.
PPC is also the majority owner (51%) of HEDNO.
Summary of Financial Adjustments
The EUR1.4 billion fair value of the put option for the 49% stake
sale of HEDNO is treated as financial debt.
Date of Relevant Committee
25-Feb-2025
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery
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Public Power
Corporation S.A.
senior unsecured LT BB-(EXP) Expected Rating RR4
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I R E L A N D
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ALBACORE EURO VI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to AlbaCore Euro CLO
VI DAC's class A-1-R and A-2-R loans and class A-R, B-1-R, B-2-R,
C-R, D-R, E-R, and F-R European cash flow notes. At closing, the
issuer had unrated subordinated notes outstanding from the original
transaction and has also issued additional unrated subordinated
notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction.
The existing classes of notes were fully redeemed with the proceeds
from the issuance of the replacement notes on the reset date and
the ratings on the original notes have been withdrawn.
Under the transaction documents, the rated loans and notes pay
quarterly interest unless there is a frequency switch event, upon
which the notes and loan will pay semiannually. The portfolio's
reinvestment period will end in April 2030.
This transaction has a 1.5-year non-call period and the portfolio's
reinvestment period will end approximately 4.5 years after
closing.
The ratings assigned to the notes and loans reflect S&P's
assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which consists primarily of
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes and loans through collateral
selection, ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,810.80
Default rate dispersion 557.84
Weighted-average life (years) 4.57
Obligor diversity measure 157.27
Industry diversity measure 21.67
Regional diversity measure 1.17
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%)** 3.22
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.41
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.74
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 4.58
**Based on Aggregate collateral balance
Rating rationale
S&P said, "The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
senior secured bonds. Therefore, we have conducted our credit and
cash flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the loans and notes. This test looks at
the total amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as
established by the initial cash flows for each rating, and it
compares that with the current portfolio's default potential plus
par losses to date. As a result, until the end of the reinvestment
period, the collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, as long as the initial ratings
are maintained.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread (3.60%), the
covenanted weighted-average coupon (4.50%), and the target weighted
average recovery rates at all rating levels. We applied various
cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default patterns,
in conjunction with different interest rate stress scenarios for
each liability rating category.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicate that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-1-R to D-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher rating levels than those we have
assigned. However, as the CLO will be in its reinvestment phase
starting from closing, during which the transaction's credit risk
profile could deteriorate, we have capped our ratings assigned to
the notes.
"For the class F-R notes, our credit and cash flow analysis
indicates that the available credit enhancement could withstand
stresses commensurate with a lower rating. However, we have applied
our 'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a 'B- (sf)' rating on this
class of notes."
The ratings uplift for the class F-R notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 24.57% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 4.57 years), versus if it was to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.57 years, which would result
in a target default rate of 14.62%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
note defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-R notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we consider
that the transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently
mitigated at the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the class
A-1-R and A-2-R loans and class A-R to F-R notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-1-R and A-2-R loans and
class A-R to E-R notes based on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A-R AAA (sf) 89.00 38.00 3mE + 1.30%
A-1-R loan AAA (sf) 84.00 38.00 3mE + 1.30%
A-2-R loan AAA (sf) 75.00 38.00 3mE + 1.30%
B-1-R AA (sf) 37.40 27.40 3mE + 1.90%
B-2-R AA (sf) 5.00 27.40 4.90%
C-R A (sf) 23.90 21.43 3mE + 2.40%
D-R BBB- (sf) 29.40 14.08 3mE + 3.40%
E-R BB- (sf) 19.30 9.25 3mE + 5.65%
F-R B- (sf) 11.00 6.50 3mE + 8.26%
Sub NR 36.50 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A-1-R and A-2-R loans and class
A-R, B-1-R, and B-2-R notes address timely interest and ultimate
principal payments. The ratings assigned to the class C-R, D-R,
E-R, and F-R notes address ultimate interest and principal
payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
3mE--Three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
AVOCA CLO XXX: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Class F-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Avoca CLO XXX DAC reset notes final
ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Avoca CLO XXX DAC
Class A-L LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
Class A-N XS2791003101 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
Class A-R XS3183182800 LT AAAsf New Rating
Class B-1 XS2791003366 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAsf
Class B-2 XS2791003523 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAsf
Class B-R XS3183183444 LT AAsf New Rating
Class C XS2791003879 LT PIFsf Paid In Full Asf
Class C-R XS3183183873 LT Asf New Rating
Class D XS2791004091 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB-sf
Class D-1-R XS3183184251 LT BBB-sf New Rating
Class D-2-R XS3191428609 LT BBB-sf New Rating
Class E XS2791004257 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB-sf
Class E-R XS3183184509 LT BB-sf New Rating
Class F XS2791004414 LT PIFsf Paid In Full B-sf
Class F-R XS3183184848 LT B-sf New Rating
Class X-R XS3183182552 LT AAAsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Avoca CLO XXX DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note proceeds
have been used to redeem the existing notes except the subordinated
notes and fund the portfolio with a target par of EUR400 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by KKR Credit Advisors (Ireland)
Unlimited Company. The collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a
4.5-year reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted average life
test (WAL) at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/ 'B-'. The Fitch-weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 25.1.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 60.5%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive):
The transaction includes various concentration limits, including a
top 10 obligor concentration limit of 20% and a maximum exposure to
the three largest Fitch-defined industries in the portfolio of 40%.
These covenants ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to
excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction includes four Fitch
matrices. Two are effective at closing, corresponding to an
8.5-year WAL, and two are effective one year after closing,
corresponding to a 7.5-year WAL. Each matrix set corresponds to two
different fixed-rate asset limits at 5% and 12.5%. Switching to the
forward matrices is subject to the reinvestment target par
condition.
The transaction has a reinvestment period of 4.5 years and includes
reinvestment criteria similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio and matrix analysis is 12 months less than
the WAL test covenant. This is to account for the strict
reinvestment conditions envisaged after the reinvestment period.
These include passing both the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC'
limit after reinvestment and a WAL test covenant that progressively
steps down over time. Fitch believes these conditions would reduce
the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
An increase of the default rate (RDR) in the identified portfolio
by 25% of the mean RDR and a decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) by
25% at all rating levels would have no impact on the class X-R and
A-R notes, lead to downgrades of one notch each for the class B-R,
C-R, D-1-R and D-2-R notes, two notches for the class E-R notes and
to below 'B-sf' for the class F-R notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The class C-R
notes have a one-notch rating cushion, and the class B-R, D-1-R,
D-2-R, E-R and F-R notes each have a two-notch rating cushion due
to the better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio
than the Fitch-stressed portfolio. The class X-R and A-R notes have
no rating cushion.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the class A-R to D-2-R notes, and to below 'B-sf'
for the class E-R and F-R notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would result in
upgrades of up to four notches each for all notes, except for the
'AAAsf' rated notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch stressed portfolio, may result from better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Avoca CLO XXX DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
AVOCA CLO XXX: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its ratings to Avoca CLO XXX DAC's
class X, A-R, B-R, C-R, D1-R, D2-R, E-R, and F-R notes. At closing,
the issuer also issued unrated subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
that closed in May 2024. At closing, the existing classes of notes
were fully redeemed with the proceeds from the issuance of the
replacement notes on the reset date. The ratings on the original
notes have been withdrawn.
The ratings assigned to Avoca CLO XXX's reset notes reflect S&P's
assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,848.11
Default rate dispersion 464.17
Weighted-average life (years) 4.38
Weighted-average life (years) extended
to cover the length of the reinvestment period 4.50
Obligor diversity measure 177.61
Industry diversity measure 22.27
Regional diversity measure 1.22
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.99
'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.83
Actual weighted-average spread (%) 3.65
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 4.12
Rationale
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payments. The portfolio's
reinvestment period will end 4.5 years after closing.
The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and bonds.
Therefore, S&P has conducted its credit and cash flow analysis by
applying its criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
S&P said, "In our cash flow analysis, we modeled a target par of
EUR400 million. We also modeled the covenanted weighted-average
spread (3.55%), the covenanted weighted-average coupon (4.00%), and
the weighted-average recovery rates calculated in line with our CLO
criteria for all classes of notes. We applied various cash flow
stress scenarios, using four different default patterns, in
conjunction with different interest rate stress scenarios for each
liability rating category.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio as long
as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation to
the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain--as established
by the initial cash flows for each rating--and compares that with
the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date.
As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we consider
the transaction's exposure to country risk sufficiently mitigated
at the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our counterparty criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria."
The CLO is managed by KKR Credit Advisors (Ireland) Unlimited Co.,
and the maximum potential rating on the liabilities is 'AAA' under
our operational risk criteria.
S&P said, "Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow,
counterparty, operational, and legal risks, we believe the
preliminary ratings are commensurate with the available credit
enhancement for the class X to F-R notes. Our credit and cash flow
analysis indicates that the available credit enhancement for the
class B-R to D2-R notes could withstand stresses commensurate with
higher ratings than those assigned. However, as the CLO will be in
its reinvestment phase starting from closing--during which the
transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate--we have capped
our ratings on the notes.
"Given our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for all the
rated classes of notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-R to E-R notes based on
four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the transaction's exposure to environmental,
social, and governance (ESG) credit factors as broadly in line with
our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the diversity of the
assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental and social credit
factors is viewed as below average, while governance credit factors
are average. For this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit
certain assets from being related to certain activities.
Accordingly, since the exclusion of assets from these activities
does not result in material differences between the transaction and
our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific adjustments have been
made in our rating analysis to account for any ESG-related risks or
opportunities."
Avoca CLO XXX DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising mainly euro-denominated leveraged loans
and bonds. The transaction is a broadly syndicated CLO that is
managed by KKR Credit Advisors (Ireland) Unlimited Co.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) Interest rate§ enhancement
(%)
X AAA (sf) 3.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR N/A
plus 0.85%
A-R AAA (sf) 248.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR 38.00
plus 1.28%
B-R AA (sf) 42.20 Three/six-month EURIBOR 27.45
plus 1.75%
C-R A (sf) 23.80 Three/six-month EURIBOR 21.50
plus 2.15%
D1-R BBB- (sf) 28.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR 14.50
plus 2.85%
D2-R BBB- (sf) 2.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR 14.00
plus 3.70%
E-R BB- (sf) 18.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR 9.50
plus 5.05%
F-R B- (sf) 12.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR 6.50
plus 8.00%
Sub notes NR 31.70 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class X, A-R, and B-R notes address
timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The ratings
assigned to the class C-R, D1-R, D2-R, E-R, and F-R notes address
ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
CARLYLE EURO 2017-3: Moody's Affirms 'B3' Rating on Class E Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Carlyle Euro CLO 2017-3 DAC:
EUR26,500,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on May 29, 2025
Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on May 29, 2025
Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR20,500,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on May 29, 2025
Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR234,000,000 (Current outstanding balance EUR113,426,807) Class
A-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2031, Affirmed Aaa
(sf); previously on May 29, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR29,500,000 Class A-2-A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2031, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 29, 2025 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR15,000,000 Class A-2-B Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2031, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 29, 2025 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR23,500,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on May 29, 2025
Affirmed Ba2 (sf)
EUR11,100,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2031, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on May 29, 2025
Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Carlyle Euro CLO 2017-3 DAC, issued in December 2017 and refinanced
in June 2021, is a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a
portfolio of mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The
portfolio is managed by CELF Advisors LLP. The transaction's
reinvestment period ended in July 2022.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1, Class B-2 and Class C notes
are primarily a result the improvement in over-collateralisation
ratios since the last rating action in May 2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-1-R, Class A-2-A,
Class A-2-B, Class D and Class E notes are primarily a result of
the expected losses on the notes remaining consistent with their
current rating levels, after taking into account the CLO's latest
portfolio, its relevant structural features and its actual
over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A-1-R notes have paid down by approximately EUR73.8
million (31.5%) in the last 12 months and EUR120.6 million (51.5%)
since closing. As a result of the deleveraging,
over-collateralisation (OC) has increased across the capital
structure. According to the trustee report dated September 2025[1]
the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D and Class E OC ratios are
reported at 165.90%, 134.76%, 121.90%, 109.89% and 105.00% compared
to April 2025[2] levels of 150.22%, 127.99%, 118.17%, 108.62% and
104.62%, respectively. Moody's notes that the April 2025 principal
payments are not reflected in the reported OC ratios.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR262.0m
Defaulted Securities: EUR0
Diversity Score: 36
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3182
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.26 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.66%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.67%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 44.40%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Long-dated assets: The presence of assets that mature beyond
the CLO's legal maturity date exposes the deal to liquidation risk
on those assets. Moody's assumes that, at transaction maturity, the
liquidation value of such an asset will depend on the nature of the
asset as well as the extent to which the asset's maturity lags that
of the liabilities. Liquidation values higher than Moody's
expectations would have a positive impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
CLAVEL RESIDENTIAL 4: Fitch Assigns B-(EXP)sf Rating on Cl. F Debt
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Clavel Residential 4 DAC (Clavel 4)
expected ratings. The assignment of final ratings is contingent on
the receipt of final documents conforming to the information
already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
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Clavel Residential 4 DAC
Class A XS3186942572 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class B XS3186943893 LT AA-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class C XS3186943976 LT A-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class D XS3186944198 LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class E XS3186944271 LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class F XS3186944354 LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class RFN XS3186944438 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class X XS3186944784 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class Z1 XS3186944511 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class Z2 XS3186944602 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Clavel 4 is a cash flow securitisation of a static pool of legacy
first-lien residential mortgages originated and serviced in Spain
by multiple entities. Clavel 4 includes the refinancing of Clavel
Residential 3 DAC (Clavel 3), a Spanish RMBS that closed in 2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Previously Securitised Loans: About 92% of the portfolio balance
comes from Clavel 3, which will be paid in full on 28 October 2025.
The remaining 8% is linked to similar residential mortgages
originated by several Spanish banks that carry comparable loan
features, particularly a high share of restructurings.
High Expected Foreclosure Frequency: The foreclosure frequency (FF)
expectation on the non-defaulted portfolio, at 46.7% for the
'AAAsf' rating case, is comparable to other Spanish reperforming
RMBS transactions. It reflects that 93.6% of the pool has been
restructured and 15.6% has more than three missed monthly
instalments, for which Fitch has applied an FF rate of 100% under
the 'AAAsf' scenario. In addition, 24.5% of the restructured loans
have less than 12 months of clean payment history.
About 7.4% of the portfolio is classified as defaulted (defined as
loans with more than 12 missed monthly instalments) with no
material borrower re-engagement strategies in place. For such
loans, Fitch has assigned a 100% FF expectation under its base case
and quantified the recovery rate in line with its rating criteria.
Mezzanine Notes Projected Interest Deferrals: Fitch expects the
class B to F notes to defer interest for between eight and 15 years
in their respective rating scenarios. Under the 'CCCsf' rating
case, deferrals are only expected for the class E and F notes. Such
deferrals are permitted by transaction terms and do not constitute
an event of default.
Consistent with Fitch's Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria,
the rating analysis reflects that any interest deferrals are
projected to be fully recovered by the legal maturity date, that
they are a common structural feature in Spanish RMBS, and that the
transaction's documentation includes a defined mechanism for the
repayment of deferred amounts.
Transaction Adjustment: Fitch has applied a 1.5x transaction
adjustment to the FF on the non-defaulted portfolio to reflect its
general assessment of the pool, based on its historical performance
data and the servicing strategies on restructured loans.
Criteria Variations: Further drawdowns on multi-credit loan
agreements have not been accounted for within Fitch's rating
analysis, reflecting the residual amounts of further drawdowns
since 2015. The absence of further drawdowns to date is most likely
due to the stringent conditions for application, which discourage
debtors from requesting further advances. Fitch has not applied the
1.2x FF adjustment defined under its European RMBS Rating Criteria
for long-tenor loans as this risk is sufficiently captured by the
restructuring FF adjustment. The combined impact of the two
variations is a single-notch uplift to the class A notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Credit enhancement ratios unable to fully compensate the credit
losses and cash flow stresses associated with the current ratings,
all else being equal, will result in downgrades. For example, a 15%
increase in the weighted average FF rates and a 15% decrease in
weighted average recovery rates would lead to a one-category
downgrade for the class A notes and at least two category
downgrades for the rest of the notes.
Weaker-than-expected performance of restructured loans, especially
those in a grace period, or weaker-than-expected recovery cash
flows on defaults would also lead to rating downgrades.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Increased credit enhancement ratios as the transaction deleverages
to fully compensate for the credit losses and cash flow stresses
commensurate with higher ratings would result in rating upgrades.
CRITERIA VARIATION
Treatment of Further Drawdowns
Further drawdowns on multi-credit agreements, which represent
around 15% of the non-defaulted portfolio balance, have not been
accounted for within the agency rating analysis, reflecting the
zero or residual amounts of further drawdowns registered since
Anticipa has serviced the portfolio from April 2015. The absence of
further drawdown to date is most likely due to the stringent
conditions for application, which discourage debtors from
requesting further advances.
Long Loan Terms
Of the non-defaulted pool, around 71% has an original term to
maturity greater than 366 months (i.e. 30.5 years). As the term to
maturity for most of these loans was extended as part of the
restructuring arrangements, Fitch did not apply the 1.2x FF
adjustment specifically defined under its European RMBS Rating
Criteria for long tenor loans as this is sufficiently captured by
the application of restructuring FF adjustment.
The combined impact of the two variations is a one notch uplift for
the class A notes.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no
findings affecting the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small, targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and other information provided
to us about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for its analysis
according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it
is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
CVC CORDATUS XI: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XI DAC reset
notes final ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating
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CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XI DAC
Class A Loans LT AAAsf New Rating
Class A-RR XS3154089976 LT AAAsf New Rating
Class B-RR XS3154090040 LT AAsf New Rating
Class C-RR XS3154090123 LT Asf New Rating
Class D-1-RR XS3154090396 LT BBB-sf New Rating
Class D-2-RR XS3185288704 LT BBB-sf New Rating
Class E-R XS3154090552 LT BB-sf New Rating
Class F-R XS3154090636 LT B-sf New Rating
Transaction Summary
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XI DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note
proceeds were used to redeem the notes (except the subordinated
ones) and fund the portfolio with a target par of EUR400 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by CVC Credit Partners Investment
Management Limited. The CLO has a 4.5-year reinvestment period and
a 7.5-year weighted average life (WAL) test at closing, which can
be extended one year after closing, subject to conditions.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-weighted
average rating factor of the identified portfolio is 26.3.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. The recovery
prospects for these assets as more favourable than for second-lien,
unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-weighted average recovery
rate of the identified portfolio is 58.6%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes various
portfolio concentration limits, including a top 10 obligor
concentration limit of 20% and a maximum exposure to the
three-largest Fitch-defined industries of 40%. These covenants
ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
WAL Step-Up Feature (Neutral): From one year after closing, the
deal can extend the WAL test by one year. The extension is at the
option of the manager, but subject to conditions, including passing
the Fitch collateral quality tests and the aggregate collateral
balance with defaulted assets at their collateral value being equal
to or greater than the reinvestment target par.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction includes one matrix
set at closing and one forward matrix set that is effective six
months after closing (or 18 months after closing if the WAL step-up
is exercised), provided that the aggregate collateral balance
(defaults carried at Fitch-calculated collateral value) is at least
at the reinvestment target par balance, among other conditions.
Each matrix set comprises two matrices with fixed-rate asset limits
of 5% and 12.5%, respectively.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL
covenant. This is to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the deal after its reinvestment period, which include
passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket limitation
test after reinvestment and a WAL covenant that gradually steps
down, before and after the end of the reinvestment period. These
conditions would reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio
in stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no impact on the class A-RR notes and would
lead to downgrades of two notches each for the class C-RR and E-R
notes and one notch each for the class B-RR, D-1-RR and D-2-RR
notes. It would also lead to downgrade to below 'B-sf' for the
class F-R notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The rated notes
each have a rating cushion of up to two notches, due to the better
metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than the
Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR of the Fitch-stressed portfolio
across all ratings would lead to downgrades of up to four notches
each for the class A-RR to E-RR notes and to below 'B-sf' for the
class F-R notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% fall of the mean RDR and a 25% rise in the RRR across all
ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to upgrades of
up to two notches each for the notes, except the 'AAAsf' notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and European Securities
and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch has relied
on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch and other
rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio information or
information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for its analysis
according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it
is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XI DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
CVC CORDATUS XI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
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S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XI DAC's class A loan and class A-R, B-R, C-R, D-1-R, D-2-R,
E-R, and F-R notes. The issuer has unrated subordinated notes
outstanding from the existing transaction and also issued EUR3.1
million of additional subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
which S&P did not rate. The existing classes of notes were fully
redeemed with the proceeds from the issuance of the replacement
loan and notes on the reset date.
The ratings assigned to the loan and notes reflect S&P's assessment
of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which consists primarily of
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated loan and notes through collateral
selection, ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which is in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,887.80
Default rate dispersion 544.97
Weighted-average life (years) 4.43
Weighted-average life extended to cover
the length of the reinvestment period (years) 4.50
Obligor diversity measure 128.72
Industry diversity measure 22.39
Regional diversity measure 1.20
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 4.60
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 35.86
Target weighted-average spread (%) 3.75
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 3.97
Liquidity facility
This transaction has a EUR1.0 million liquidity facility, provided
by The Bank of New York Mellon, with a maximum commitment period of
four years and an option to extend for a further 24 months. The
margin on the facility is 2.50% and drawdowns are limited to the
amount of accrued but unpaid interest on CDOs. The liquidity
facility is repaid using interest proceeds in a senior position of
the waterfall or repaid directly from the interest account on a
business day earlier than the payment date. For its cash flow
analysis, S&P assumes that the liquidity facility is fully drawn
throughout the six-year period and that the amount is repaid just
before the coverage tests breach.
Rating rationale
Under the transaction documents, the rated loan and notes pay
quarterly interest unless a frequency switch event occurs.
Following this, the loan and notes will switch to semiannual
payments. The portfolio's reinvestment period will end
approximately 4.5 years after closing.
S&P said, "At closing, the portfolio is well-diversified, primarily
comprising broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term
loans and senior secured bonds. Therefore, we have conducted our
credit and cash flow analysis by applying our criteria for
corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the target weighted-average spread (3.75%), the covenanted
weighted-average coupon (4.50%), and the identified
weighted-average recovery rates calculated in line with our CLO
criteria for all rating levels. We applied various cash flow stress
scenarios, using four different default patterns, in conjunction
with different interest rate stress scenarios for each liability
rating category.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the loan and notes. This test looks at
the total amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as
established by the initial cash flows for each rating, and it
compares that with the current portfolio's default potential plus
par losses to date. As a result, until the end of the reinvestment
period, the collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R, C-R, D-1-R, and D-2-R notes
could withstand stresses commensurate with higher rating levels
than those we have assigned. However, as the CLO will be in its
reinvestment phase starting from closing, during which the
transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate, we have capped
our ratings assigned to the notes.
"For the class F-R notes, our credit and cash flow analysis
indicates that the available credit enhancement could withstand
stresses commensurate with a lower rating. However, we have applied
our 'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a 'B- (sf)' rating on this
class of notes."
The ratings uplift for the class F-R notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that have
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 24.98% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 4.5 years), versus if we were to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.5 years, which would result
in a target default rate of 14.40%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
note defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, S&P considers that the
available credit enhancement for the class F-R notes is
commensurate with the assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Taking the above factors into account and following our analysis
of the credit, cash flow, counterparty, operational, and legal
risks, we believe that the assigned ratings are commensurate with
the available credit enhancement for all rated classes of loan and
notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to provide an indication of
how rising pressures among speculative-grade corporates could
affect our ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also
included the sensitivity of the ratings on the class A loan and
class A-R to E-R notes based on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
The transaction securitizes a portfolio of primarily senior secured
leveraged loans and bonds and is managed CVC Credit Partners
Investment Management Ltd.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A-R AAA (sf) 118.00 38.00 3/6-month EURIBOR + 1.30%
A loan AAA (sf) 130.00 38.00 3/6-month EURIBOR + 1.30%
B-R AA (sf) 42.00 27.50 3/6-month EURIBOR + 1.75%
C-R A (sf) 24.00 21.50 3/6-month EURIBOR + 2.20%
D-1-R BBB- (sf) 27.00 14.75 3/6-month EURIBOR + 3.10%
D-2-R BBB- (sf) 3.00 14.00 3/6-month EURIBOR + 3.70%
E-R BB- (sf) 18.00 9.50 3/6-month EURIBOR + 5.50%
F-R B- (sf) 12.00 6.50 3/6-month EURIBOR + 8.33%
Sub NR 48.475 N/A N/A
Additional
Subordinated NR 3.10 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A loan and class A-R and B-R
notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The
ratings assigned to the class C-R, D-1-R, D-2-R, E-R, and F-R notes
address ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
FIDELITY GRAND 2022-1: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Cl. F-R-R Notes
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S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Fidelity Grand
Harbour CLO 2022-1 DAC's class A-R-R, B-R-R, C-R-R, D-R-R, E-R-R,
and F-R-R European cash flow CLO notes. At closing, the issuer had
unrated subordinated notes outstanding from the existing
transaction and issued additional subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
that closed in September 2022. The existing classes of notes were
fully redeemed with the proceeds from the issuance of the
replacement notes on the reset date. The ratings on the original
notes have been withdrawn.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will permanently switch to semi-annual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period ends approximately 4.5 years
after closing, and its non-call period ends 1.5 years after
closing.
The ratings reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,748.66
Default rate dispersion 558.80
Weighted-average life (years) 4.79
Obligor diversity measure 114.69
Industry diversity measure 19.37
Regional diversity measure 1.23
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.16
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 37.18
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.80
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 3.26
Rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'. The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds. Therefore, we have conducted our credit and cash flow
analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period in April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as established by
the initial cash flows for each rating, and it compares that with
the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date.
As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, as long as the initial ratings
are maintained.
"Following the end of the reinvestment period, certain assets can
be substituted as long as they meet the reinvestment criteria. In
our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million target par
amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread (3.70%), the
covenanted weighted-average coupon (3.25%), and the actual
weighted-average recovery rates at all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R-R to E-R-R notes benefits from
break-even default rate and scenario default rate cushions that we
would typically consider commensurate with higher ratings than
those assigned. However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment
phase, during which the transaction's credit risk profile could
deteriorate, we have capped our ratings assigned to the notes.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote. The issuer is a special-purpose entity that meets our
criteria for bankruptcy remoteness.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the class
A-R-R to F-R-R notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-R-R to E-R-R notes based
on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-
(sf)' rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating
are not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis
results for the class F-R-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
The transaction securitizes a portfolio of primarily senior secured
leveraged loans and bonds. The transaction is managed by Fidelity
CLO Advisers LP.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A-R-R AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 3mE +1.32%
B-R-R AA (sf) 44.00 27.00 3mE +1.85%
C-R-R A (sf) 24.00 21.00 3mE +2.25%
D-R-R BBB- (sf) 28.00 14.00 3mE +3.00%
E-R-R BB- (sf) 18.00 9.50 3mE +5.10%
F-R-R B- (sf) 12.00 6.50 3mE +8.10%
Sub. Notes NR 34.95 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A-R-R and B-R-R notes address
timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The ratings
assigned to the class C-R-R to F-R-R notes address ultimate
interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semi-annual and the index
switches to six-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) when a
frequency switch event occurs.
Sub. notes—Subordinated notes
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
3mE--Three-month EURIBOR.
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Hayfin Emerald CLO VI DAC reset notes
final ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating
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Hayfin Emerald CLO VI DAC
X-R XS3196159464 LT AAAsf New Rating
A-R XS3196159894 LT AAAsf New Rating
B-1-R XS3196159977 LT AAsf New Rating
B-2-R XS3196160124 LT AAsf New Rating
C-R XS3196160470 LT Asf New Rating
D-R XS3196160637 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E-R XS3196160801 LT BB-sf New Rating
F-R XS3196161015 LT B-sf New Rating
Sub Notes XS2317074768 LT NRsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Hayfin Emerald CLO VI DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured loans and secured senior bonds (at least 90%) with a
component of senior unsecured, mezzanine and second-lien loans.
Note proceeds were used to redeem the existing notes, except the
subordinated notes, and to fund a portfolio with a target par of
EUR400 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by Hayfin Emerald Management LLP.
The collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a three -year
reinvestment period and a seven-year weighted average life (WAL)
test at issue date.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B+'/'B'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 23.7.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio is 61.5%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes
one matrix set consisting of fixed-rate limits of 5% and 10%. The
matrices correspond to a seven-year WAL test and a top 10 obligor
concentration limit of 20%, The transaction includes various other
concentration limits, including a maximum exposure to the three
largest Fitch-defined industries in the portfolio at 40%. These
covenants ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to
excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction includes
reinvestment criteria similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Neutral): The WAL used for the Fitch-stressed
portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL covenant at the
issue date. This is to account for the strict reinvestment
conditions envisaged after the reinvestment period. The conditions
include passing the coverage tests, the Fitch 'CCC' maximum limit
after reinvestment and a WAL covenant that gradually steps down
over time, both before and after the end of the reinvestment
period. These conditions would, in its opinion, reduce the
effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no impact on the class A-R, B-R, C-R or D-R
notes and would lead to downgrades of one notch for the class E-R
notes, and to below 'B-sf' for the class F-R notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration. The class B-R,
D-R, E-R and F-R notes each have a rating cushion of two notches
and the class C-R notes have a cushion of three notches, due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, The class A-R notes do not have any
rating cushion as they are already at the highest achievable
rating.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of three notches
for the class A-R to D-R notes, and below 'B-sf' for the class E-R
and F-R notes. The class X-R notes would not be unaffected.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction in the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to two notches for the class B-R to D-R notes, three
notches for the class E-R notes, four notches for the class F-R
notes. The class X-R and A-R notes are rated 'AAAsf', the highest
level on Fitch's scale and cannot be upgraded.
Upgrades occur during the reinvestment period, which are based on
the Fitch-stressed portfolio may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
transaction's remaining life. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
HAYFIN EMERALD VI: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Hayfin Emerald
CLO VI DAC's class X, A-R, B-1-R, B-2-R, C-R, D-R, E-R, and F-R
notes. At closing, the issuer had EUR35.80m unrated subordinated
notes outstanding from the existing transaction.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction.
The existing classes of notes were fully redeemed with the proceeds
from the issuance of the replacement notes. The ratings on the
original notes have been withdrawn.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs, upon which the
notes pay semiannually.
This transaction has a one-year non-call period, and the
portfolio's reinvestment period will end three years after
closing.
The ratings assigned to the reset notes reflect S&P's assessment
of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings weighted-average rating factor 2,652.27
Default rate dispersion 730.68
Weighted-average life (years) 4.06
Obligor diversity measure 121.16
Industry diversity measure 15.98
Regional diversity measure 1.19
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 403.17
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0.00
Number of performing obligors 165
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 4.89
'AAA' actual portfolio weighted-average recovery (%) 37.45
Actual weighted-average spread (%) 3.59
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 3.17
Rating rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'. The portfolio primarily comprises broadly syndicated
speculative-grade senior secured term loans and bonds. Therefore,
we conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by applying our
criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"As the deal has no effective date concept and the portfolio was
99.5% ramped at closing, we used the EUR398 million par amount in
our cash flow analysis. We have also used the covenanted
weighted-average spread (3.50%), the covenanted weighted-average
coupon (3.00%), and the actual portfolio weighted-average recovery
rates for all rating levels except at the 'AAA' rating level, which
we applied a 1% rating haircut. We applied various cash flow stress
scenarios, using four different default patterns, in conjunction
with different interest rate stress scenarios for each liability
rating category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our counterparty criteria.
"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk to
be limited at the assigned ratings, as the exposure to individual
sovereigns does not exceed the diversification thresholds outlined
in our criteria.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on Oct. 15, 2028, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as established by
the initial cash flows for each rating, and it compares that with
the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date.
As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"The transaction's legal structure is bankruptcy remote, in line
with our legal criteria.
"The operational risk associated with key transaction parties (such
as the collateral manager) that provide an essential service to the
issuer is in line with our operational risk criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicate that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-1-R to E-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned.
However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase, during
which the transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate, we
capped our assigned ratings on the notes. The class X and A-R notes
can withstand stresses commensurate with the assigned ratings.
"For the class F-R notes, our credit and cash flow analysis
indicate that the available credit enhancement could withstand
stresses commensurate with a lower rating. However, we have applied
our 'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a 'B- (sf)' rating on this
class of notes."
The ratings uplift for the class F-R notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 21.71% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 4.06 years), versus if it was to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.06 years, which would result
in a target default rate of 12.99%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
note defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-R notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class X to E-R notes based on
four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Hayfin Emerald CLO VI is a European cash flow CLO securitization of
a revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued by speculative-grade borrowers. Hayfin Emerald
Management LLP manages the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
X AAA (sf) 2.00 N/A Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 0.85%
A-R AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.25%
B-1-R AA (sf) 28.40 28.40 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.95%
B-2-R AA (sf) 10.00 28.40 4.55%
C-R A (sf) 24.00 22.40 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.40%
D-R BBB- (sf) 29.60 15.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.20%
E-R BB- (sf) 16.80 10.80 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.90%
F-R B- (sf) 13.20 7.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.00%
Sub. Notes NR 35.80 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class X, A-R, B-1-R, and B-2-R notes
address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. The
ratings assigned to the class C-R, D-R, E-R, and F-R notes address
ultimate interest and principal payments.
§ The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
RRE 1 LOAN: S&P Assigns BB-(sf) Rating on Class D-R-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to RRE 1 Loan
Management DAC's class A-1-R-R loan, and class A-1-R-R, A-2-R-R,
B-R-R, C-1-R-R, C-2-R-R, and D-R-R notes. At closing, the existing
transaction had unrated subordinated notes outstanding The issuer
also issued additional unrated subordinated notes, unrated
performance notes, and preferred return notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
that closed in April 2021. The existing notes were fully redeemed
with the proceeds from the issuance of the replacement notes and
loan on the reset date. At the same time, S&P withdrew its ratings
on the redeemed notes.
This is a European cash flow CLO transaction, securitizing a
portfolio of primarily senior secured leveraged loans and bonds.
Redding Ridge Asset Management (UK) LLP manages the transaction.
The ratings assigned to the notes and loan reflect S&P's assessment
of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes and loan through collateral
selection, ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,632.87
Default rate dispersion 634.42
Weighted-average life (years) 4.71
Obligor diversity measure 118.84
Industry diversity measure 21.95
Regional diversity measure 1.24
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 600.00
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0.00
Number of performing obligors 170
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 1.71
Actual 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.89
Actual portfolio weighted-average spread (%) 3.53
Actual portfolio weighted-average coupon (%) 3.16
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes and loan will pay
quarterly interest unless there is a frequency switch event.
Following this, the notes and loan will permanently switch to
semiannual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period will end 4.5 years after
closing.
The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and senior
secured bonds. S&P said, "Therefore, we have conducted our credit
and cash flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash
flow CDOs. As such, we have not applied any additional scenario and
sensitivity analysis when assigning ratings to any class of notes
and loan in this transaction."
S&P said, "In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR600 million
target par amount, the actual weighted-average spread (3.53%), and
the actual weighted-average coupon (3.16%) as indicated by the
collateral manager. We assumed weighted-average recovery rates in
line with those of the target portfolio presented to us. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class A-2-R-R, B-R-R, C-1-R-R, C-2-R-R,
and D-R-R notes could withstand stresses commensurate with higher
ratings than those assigned. However, as the CLO will be in its
reinvestment phase starting from closing, during which the
transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate, we have capped
the assigned ratings. The class A-1-R-R notes and class A-1-R-R
loan can withstand stresses commensurate with the assigned rating.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on April 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes and loan. This test looks at
the total amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as
established by the initial cash flows for each rating and compares
that with the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses
to date. As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk to
be limited at the assigned ratings, as the exposure to individual
sovereigns does not exceed the diversification thresholds outlined
in our criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure is bankruptcy remote, in line
with our legal criteria.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe that our assigned ratings
are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the
class A-1-R-R loan, and class A-1-R-R,A-2-R-R, B-R-R, C-1-R-R,
C-2-R-R, and D-R-R notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-1-R-R loan, and class
A-1-R-R to D-R-R notes to four hypothetical scenarios.
Environmental, social, and governance factors
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being related
to certain industries. Accordingly, since the exclusion of assets
from these industries does not result in material differences
between the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no
specific adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to
account for any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
RRE 1 Loan Management DAC is a European cash flow CLO transaction,
securitizing a portfolio of primarily senior secured leveraged
loans and bonds. Redding Ridge Asset Management (UK) LLP manages
the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest
rate§
A-1-R-R AAA (sf) 182.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.30%
A-1-R-R
Loan AAA (sf) 190.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.30%
A-2-R-R AA (sf) 55.50 28.75 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.75%
B-R-R A (sf) 46.50 21.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.15%
C-1-R-R BBB (sf) 30.00 16.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.60%
C-2-R-R BBB- (sf) 12.00 14.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.65%
D-R-R BB- (sf) 27.00 9.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.00%
Performance
Notes NR 1.00 N/A N/A
Preferred
return notes NR 0.25 N/A N/A
Additional
Sub notes NR 1.37 N/A N/A
Sub notes NR 62.54 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A-1-R-R loan and class A-1-R-R
and A-2-R-R notes address timely interest and ultimate principal
payments. The ratings assigned to the class B-R-R, C-1-R-R,
C-2-R-R, and D-R-R notes address ultimate interest and principal
payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
DYNAMO MIDCO: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B' LongTerm IDR to Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Rating Outlook on Dynamo Midco B.V.'s
(Innomotics) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Stable from
Positive, while affirming the IDR at 'B' and the senior secured
rating at 'B+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'.
The Outlook revision reflects prolonged negative free cash flow
(FCF) amid material working capital outflow in the short to medium
term and high interest payments, which heighten execution risk
around the company's performance improvement plan.
The affirmation is supported by expected EBITDA margin improvement,
driven by productivity measures that deliver efficiency gains, and
underpins deleveraging. The IDR also reflects adequate leverage,
coverage, healthy liquidity and a robust business profile, with a
leading market position and solid geographical diversification.
Key Rating Drivers
Prolonged FCF Outflow Drives Outlook: Fitch expects FCF to trough
in 2025 before improving to neutral to negative in 2026 and
positive thereafter. The 2025 deterioration is driven by negative
working capital, amplified by the carveout from Siemens of its low-
and high-motor and drive businesses in October 2024. Following the
sale, supplier terms became stricter for Innomotics while financing
provided by Siemens ceased, causing a material outflow in payables,
while receivables and inventories remained broadly stable. This was
compounded by unfavorable order timings, which increased contract
liabilities amid weaker demand in core segments.
Fitch expects these effects to normalize from 2026 as management
renegotiates supplier and customer contracts to better align
payment terms. Fitch anticipates the imbalance between contract
assets and liabilities will continue to weigh on working capital
through 2026, before normalizing by 2027 on the back of a modest
recovery in key markets. This will align with subsiding one-off
restructuring costs, enabling FCF to sufficiently absorb high
interest payments (on higher debt to fund acquisitions and working
capital outflow) and generate neutral to positive FCF.
Weaker Sales Volumes: Fitch expects revenue to decline through 2025
before stabilizing at an average 1% annual growth through 2028. The
shortfall reflects intensified competition in Innomotics' key
markets with new entrants in the European market rapidly gaining
market share. The impact is most acute in the low voltage motors
(LVM) core segment, where lower-priced competitors that divert
sales from the U.S. to Europe amid tariffs are depressing volumes
for European manufacturers, such as Innomotics.
Innomotics leverages its reputation for innovative, customized
solutions, but this differentiation has not fully offset pricing
pressure. Fitch expects headwinds mitigation through expansion in
adjacent markets, supporting a recovery from 2027.
Restructuring Strengthens Profitability: Fitch forecasts EBITDA
margins to improve consistently, averaging 12.8% from 2025 to 2028,
reinforcing Innomotics' robust financial profile. This stems from
the benefits of restructuring actions to address diseconomies of
scale, inherited during the carve out, and drive efficiency gains
through targeted productivity initiatives. Actions include scaling
down selected departments, adopting a new operational model better
suited to its scale, and optimizing resources via supply chain
localization. Fitch expects cost reductions to safeguard
profitability amid softened volumes, inflationary pressures and
intensified price competition.
Improved Leverage Metrics: Fitch expects steady deleveraging
underpinned by stronger EBITDA generation. This is despite a boost
in debt from EUR155 million RCF drawdown, EUR100 million add-on to
fund the planned acquisition of the India LVM business from Siemens
Limited, and EUR30 million on a new factoring facility as of
financial year ending September 2025 (FYE25) to manage working
capital swings. These increases are mitigated by forecast
profitability improvements, driven by higher efficiency as
restructuring benefits crystallize. This trend assumes adherence to
a conservative financial policy that prioritizes deleveraging,
consistent with the company's strategy.
Strong Business Profile: Fitch expects the company's solid and
improving geographic and end-market diversification in adjacent
markets to mitigate market risks, including tariffs and changing
competitive landscape in its core LVM segment. Fitch assumes
Innomotics will be able to sustain its market-leading position,
despite pressures on market share, by maintaining its competitive
advantage in high-quality products with innovative, customized
solutions relative to industry peers.
Peer Analysis
The business profile of Innomotics, with annual revenue over EUR 3
billion, is among the strongest in its peer group, ranking above
Innio Holding GmbH (B+/Stable), Flender International GmbH
(B/Stable) and Project Grand Bidco (UK) Limited (B+/Stable). This
is supported by solid geographic diversification, with about 79% of
its revenue generated outside Germany, and ongoing product
expansion through adjacent market penetration, comparable to
higher-rated peers such as Ahlstrom Holding 3 Oy (B+/Negative) and
Regal Rexnord Corporation (BBB-/Stable).
Customer concentration, with the top 15 customers representing
around 30% of order intake, acts as a constraint to its business
profile compared with peers such as Ahlstrom, contributing to a
one-notch differential. This is partially mitigated by the
company's long-standing customer relationships.
Innomotics' market-leading specialist position supports healthy
through-the-cycle EBITDA and EBIT margins of average 12.8% and
10.6%, respectively. These are stronger than Flender and broadly in
line with other 'B' rated diversified industrials such as Project.
They remain weaker than higher-rated issuers, such as Innio and
Ahlstrom, contributing to the one-notch difference. This strong
profitability is offset by weaker FCF margins which constrains
Innomotics' financial profile. These are weaker than Project's and
Ahlstrom's underpinning the one-notch difference.
Key Assumptions
- Revenue growth on average of 0.9% in 2025-2028;
- EBITDA margin to improve to around 12.8% by 2028 on efficiency
gains and repricing;
- Cash interest paid of about EUR136 million, reflecting higher
debt and Fitch's latest "Global Economic Outlook" on interest
rates;
- Working capital outflow of 3.2% of revenue in 2025 followed by an
average 0.4% until 2028;
- Capex to average around 2.8% of revenue until 2028;
- No further M&A or dividends paid until 2028.
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that Innomotics would be
reorganized as a going concern (GC) in a bankruptcy, rather than
liquidated in a default;
- A 10% administrative claim;
- The GC EBITDA estimate of EUR275 million reflects Fitch's view of
a sustainable, post-reorganization level on which Fitch bases the
enterprise valuation (EV);
- An EV multiple of 5.5x is applied to the GC EBITDA to calculate a
post-reorganization EV, in line with the industry and peer median;
- The multiple of 5.5x reflects Innomotics' business model as a
multi-specialist manufacturer of electric motors serving diverse
end markets. It is further supported by its leading market
position, a strong customer base, expertise and Siemens' branding
in the short term;
- The waterfall analysis consists of all equally ranking senior RCF
Fitch assumes to be fully drawn in a post-reorganization scenario,
senior secured notes, a euro term loan B (TLB), a U.S. dollar TLB
and a guarantee facility Fitch assumes to be 50% utilized, in line
with Fitch's criteria. Its analysis considers the EUR30 million
factoring drawn as at year-end 2025 to not remain available in a
liquidation scenario; as such, Fitch deducts this amount from EV as
a GC.
- The recovery analysis outcome corresponds to 'RR3' with secured
debt rating one notch above the IDR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA margins below 8%;
- Negative FCF margins on a sustained basis;
- EBITDA leverage above 6.5x;
- EBITDA interest coverage consistently below 1.5x;
- Consistently flat to negative cash from operations less
capex/debt.
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA margins above 11% with successful execution of synergies
and restructuring initiatives;
- FCF margins sustained above 2%;
- EBITDA leverage below 5.5x, supported by a conservative financial
policy towards deleveraging;
- EBITDA interest coverage above 2.5x.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of June 2025, Innomotics had a healthy cash balance of around
EUR218.2 million (after its adjustment for intra-year working
capital changes of 1% of sales) up from EUR175 million at FYE 2024.
The undrawn EUR245 million on its EUR400 million RCF (with EUR155
million drawn) supports liquidity further and provides headroom
against its negative Fitch-calculated FCF of EUR117 million as of
June 2025.
Liquidity is underpinned by long-dated maturities, with most of its
debt instruments due in 2031, and a diversified capital structure.
The only short-term debt is the EUR 30 million factoring facility,
which Fitch expects will be rolled over annually.
Issuer Profile
Innomotics is a market-leading, Germany-based manufacturer of low
to high voltage motors and medium voltage drives.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Dynamo Newco II GmbH
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
Dynamo Midco B.V. LT IDR B Affirmed B
Dynamo US Bidco Inc.
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
IGNITION MIDCO: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR225MM Term Loan to Caa2
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings downgraded the instrument rating to Caa2 from Caa1
of the EUR225 million backed senior secured term loan B, issued by
Ignition Midco BV, and Moody's affirmed the Ca instrument rating of
the EUR150 million senior secured term loan (2nd Lien PIK
facility), issued by Ignition New Midco B.V. Concurrently, Moody's
affirmed Ignition Topco BV's (IGM Resins or the company) Caa3
corporate family rating, Caa3-PD probability of default rating
(PDR), and changed the outlooks on all entities to negative from
stable. Following the downgrade Moody's will withdraw all ratings
of IGM Resins at the issuer's request.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of the instrument rating reflects Moody's revised
view of the expected recovery value for the rated debt instrument
because of the company's weak operating performance, exacerbated by
additional pressure from the implementation of US tariffs, which
worsened the already challenging environment faced by the company.
Moody's expects end-market conditions for chemical producers to
remain difficult in the next 12–18 months, driven by subdued
demand, fierce competition and persistent structural overcapacity.
Moody's views IGM Resins' capital structure as unsustainable and
there is a very high likelihood of another distressed exchange over
the next two years, meanwhile its liquidity is weak.
RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
The negative outlook on IGM Resins highlights the unsustainability
of the company's capital structure and the risk of a default (under
Moody's definitions) over the next 12-18 months.
RATINGS RATIONALE FOR WITHDRAWAL OF ALL RATINGS
Moody's have decided to withdraw the rating(s) following a review
of the issuer's request to withdraw its rating(s).
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Factors that could lead to an upgrade include strong improvements
in operating performance along with maintenance of adequate
liquidity such that Moody's believes the capital structure is
becoming more sustainable.
Factors that could lead to a downgrade weaker-than-expected EBITDA
generation or materially negative FCF or a deterioration in
liquidity such that Moody's believes lender recovery prospects are
deteriorating.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Chemicals
published in October 2023.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Ignition Topco BV (IGM Resins or the company) is the parent company
of operating companies that trade under the name IGM Resins, with
head offices in Waalwijk, the Netherlands. IGM Resins is a leading
global supplier of energy curing raw material solutions. These
products are photoinitiators, acrylates and additives used in a
wide variety of industries, including the packaging and printing
industry; the wood, plastic and metal coatings industry; the
electronics and electrics industry; and special applications such
as 3D printing and optical products. The company has been majority
owned by the private equity firm Astorg since July 2018.
===========
T U R K E Y
===========
ANADOLU EFES: S&P Lowers ICRs to 'BB', Outlook Negative
-------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer and issue-level
credit ratings on Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii AS (AEFES)
and its $500 million senior unsecured notes due June 28, 2028, to
'BB' from 'BB+'. The outlook remains negative.
The negative outlook reflects risks to S&P's base case that free
cash flow generation for Turkish beer operations may only stabilize
at a relatively low level for the rating and may not improve
sustainably in the next 12-18 months amid ongoing high funding
costs and promotional investments to stimulate demand. This will
challenge the group's ability to continuously pass our sovereign
stress test on Turkiye.
AEFES' beer group cash generation remains challenged in Turkiye
amid high funding costs, high capital expenditure (capex), and
increased trade promotions to stimulate demand. Excluding the
proportionate contribution from Coca-Cola Icecek A.S. (CCI), S&P
forecasts beer group's free operating cash flow (FOCF) to be
negative in 2025 by up to TRY2.2 billion-TRY2.3 billion.
The company remains resilient in the challenging consumer
environment and thanks to the expected benefit from reducing
borrowing costs in Turkiye, S&P projects cash flows will stabilize
or marginally improve by the end of 2026.
However, absent improvements in Turkiye, AEFES' ongoing ability to
pass S&P's sovereign stress test, including the transfer and
convertibility (T&C) event scenario, will face challenges.
S&P said, "The rating action reflects our expectations that credit
metrics for the beer group operation will remain weak in 2025 with
strong negative free cash flow generation amid ongoing challenges
in Turkiye. Excluding the contribution of CCI, we estimate that
overall FOCF for the beer group in 2025 will remain negative up to
TRY2.2 billion-TRY2.3 billion in 2025 for a second year in a row
(about TRY5 billion of estimated outflow in 2024). This comes amid
high ongoing borrowing costs in Turkiye and elevated capital
investments linked to production capacity initiatives.
"We estimate capex to sales in the Turkish beer business will
remain high at close to 9% of revenues." This is driven by ongoing
production capacity investments domestically, as the company's
volumes continue to increase, with further support from
successfully broadening the price-point coverage of the portfolio
since 2022 and maintaining solid market share of about 51% in beer.
AEFES' value brand, Bremen 1827, reached market share of close to
10% since its launch in 2022.
The beer group's operations continue to suffer from the loss of the
profitable Russian business, where headwinds have increased since
2024. Since Dec. 30, 2024, local Russian group Vmeste Group gained
temporary management control of the business following a signed
decree by President Vladimir Putin, with AEFES fully
deconsolidating the Russian beer business since Jan. 1, 2025.
Consequently, AEFES appears to have lost effective access to
sizeable cash balances equivalent to about $500 million at end of
the year.
S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects the risks that the beer
group's free cash flow from Turkish operations may fail to become
positive in 2026, as we think it will be contingent on improved
macroeconomic conditions and reduced funding costs. For 2026, we
project the beer group's overall FOCF generation will improve close
to TRY150 million-TRY250 million (about $4 million-$6 million),
which is modest for a company generating close to the equivalent of
$250 million in forecasted EBITDA in 2025. In our projections, we
factor in an expected reduction in borrowing rates in Turkiye
toward 20% by year-end 2026, and 37.5% by year-end 2025. AEFES is
actively working on boosting its cash flow generation by improving
working capital management, especially managing inventories more
efficiently. The company is also looking for cost efficiencies
across its operations and value chain to further boost its
profitability and cash conversion. For the next 12-24 months, we
believe that AEFES is fully focused toward reducing the beer
group's reported leverage, which stood at 3.7x at June 30,
2025--well above its committed target of 1x-2x. We therefore
believe it will remain prudent managing discretionary spend and
dividend distributions, which is conservative in general with a
payout ratio typically below 25% (of previous year's net income).
Although management is firmly committed to improving the financials
of the beer business, we anticipate execution risk under our base
case. This largely reflects the volatility in the external
environment. In particular, consumer confidence is weak in Turkiye
from the very high ongoing inflation that necessitates increased
trade promotions and extending support through the value chain to
manage volumes.
"To pass our sovereign stress test, we deem it essential for the
beer group to emerge to solid free cash flow generation in Turkiye
in the coming 12-18 months AEFES no longer has the Russian business
to continuously pass our sovereign stress test, including the T&C
assessment, which allowed us to rate it above the Turkish
government's foreign currency rating (BB-/Stable)." At this stage,
AEFES continues to successfully pass our theoretical sovereign
stress test, while linked to Turkiye. That said, given the ongoing
cash burn in the Turkish beer business, the pass margin has
narrowed. The beer group held the equivalent of about $385 million
in cash balances as of June 30, 2025, of which about 20% (about $78
million) is held in hard currency (EUR and USD) in the Netherlands
and Germany. The remaining amounts are largely held in Turkiye
using local currency. The beer business' cash balances provide
about 4.6x coverage of annual interest payments linked to the
outstanding Eurobond.
If the Turkish beer business does not improve free cash flow
generation, management may be forced to repatriate some cash from
abroad to Turkiye. S&P said, "This would pressure its ability to
pass our theoretical stress test, including the T&C event that
models a hard capital control scenario. We will therefore monitor
how the company executes its plan to improve the situation in its
domestic market."
Meanwhile, the beer group's liquidity position remains adequate
with limited refinancing needs until June 2028 when its $500
million notes are due. Although the company has sizeable short-term
debt of the equivalent of about $353 million, this is mainly in
Turkiye and comprises local loans and bonds that the company
successfully refinances and rolls over, reflecting its blue-chip
status in the domestic market. AEFES' beer group also does not have
any financial maintenance covenants.
S&P said, "We now proportionately consolidate the group's soft
drinks subsidiary Coca-Cola Icecek A.S. (CCI) to better reflect the
economic reality of the overall business. From an accounting
perspective, AEFES fully consolidates CCI in its accounts given it
has a controlling share (50.3%). Substantial minorities
exist--notably Coca-Cola Co. (A+/Stable/A-1) retains a sizable
(20%) share--with strong voting rights for major business
decisions, reflecting the exclusive licensing agreements for the
manufacturing, sales, and distribution rights granted to CCI under
long-term agreements. In our updated calculations, we only
proportionately consolidated CCI's numbers, as we think this better
reflects AEFES' control of the business due to the sizeable
minority shareholders and associated cash leakage.
"We still view CCI as a core subsidiary to AEFES, now even more
important from a cash generation perspective in the de facto
absence of the Russian beer business. Through our consolidation
approach, we acknowledge that AEFES does not fully control its cash
flow allocation. For the overall group, including proportional
consolidation of CCI, we forecast overall strong revenue growth of
up to 29%-31% in 2025 and 25%-27% in 2026, driven by moderate
volume growth and ongoing pricing in Turkiye, where inflation
remains very high.
"We assume S&P Global Ratings' margins will improve toward
18.5%-19% as FOCF generation increases toward TRY3 billion-TRY3.5
billion over the same period. The positive overall FOCF generation
in 2025 is solely driven by our forecasts for CCI, while the beer
group will be strongly negative at TRY2.2 billion-TRY2.3 billion.
In 2026, we expect positive FOCF, reflecting marginal contribution
by the beer group, assuming both CCI and AEFES successfully manage
working capital and deploy reduced amounts to capex, given their
drive to reduce leverage.
"Developments in Russia are neutral to our updated base case as we
deconsolidated the Russian operations in 2022. On Dec. 30, 2024,
President Putin signed a decree placing AEFES' Russian beer
business under external temporary administrative control by local
entity Vmeste Group, which is reportedly ultimately controlled by
Nikolai Tyurnikov. This followed AEFES and its significant
shareholder Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) rejecting a second proposal
to fully separate the Russian and Ukrainian beer business by having
AEFES buy out ABI's stake in Russia while ABI buys out AEFES' stake
in Ukraine.
"The Russian beer business was reportedly rebranded and is trading
under a different logo, which in our view, points to a heightening
risk of possible full, or partial, asset expropriation by the
Russian authorities. This would complete the consolidation of the
Russian beer industry in local hands following the exits of peers
like Carlsberg and Heineken.
"AEFES had sizeable cash balances equivalent to about $500 million
in Russia at year-end 2024, which are no longer in its effective
control. As such, they no longer boost AEFES' liquidity position or
ensure no refinancing risks for the group by 2028. At this stage we
continue to value AEFES' business as the rightful legal owner of
the Russian assets and think a solution remains possible.
"We embed this into our satisfactory business risk profile
assessment, which supports the current rating. In our assessment,
we also factor in the strong leadership position of AEFES in its
end markets, with 51% market share in Turkiye, 46% in Kazakhstan,
49% in Georgia, and 64% in Moldova. The Russian beer business is
also a market leader, with an estimated share of 31%, slightly
ahead of second-biggest player Baltika (former subsidiary of
Carlsberg).
"The negative outlook reflects the risks that we could lower our
rating on the group in the next 12 months if the cash burn
continues in the beer operations, notably in Turkiye, in 2026."
S&P could lower its rating on AEFES over the next 12 months if the
beer group unexpectedly does not return to positive free cash flow
generation by the end of 2026. This could occur if:
-- Current resilience in demand falters, such that volumes decline
in Turkiye and Kazakhstan; or
-- If funding costs unexpectedly remain very high in Turkiye and
operating costs and cash flow initiatives cannot offset them. This
would weaken the group's liquidity position, making it unable to
pass S&P's sovereign foreign currency stress test, including T&C on
Turkiye, thus capping its rating to 'BB-', the sovereign foreign
currency rating on Turkiye.
S&P could revise its outlook to stable if the beer group returns
firmly and sustainably to solid positive free cash flow generation
as early as 2026. This would occur if borrowing costs recede in
Turkiye, the company achieves tangible benefits from cost and cash
flow generation initiatives in its domestic market, and demand
stablizes. This would strengthen the group's liquidity position
ahead of its 2028 refinancing date linked to its $500 million
notes.
If the company's effective control over its Russian business is
restored alongside its cash trapped there, that could improve its
liquidity position and cash flow, and potentially support the
rating.
COCA-COLA ICECEK: S&P Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm ICs, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook to stable from negative and
affirmed its 'BB+' long-term issuer and issue-level credit ratings
on Turkiye-based beverage company Coca-Cola Icecek AS (CCI) and its
$500 million senior unsecured notes due July 2029.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that CCI's credit
metrics should improve in the next 12-18 months thanks to a large
and leading product portfolio and resilient demand across most end
markets. These factors, alongside expected reducing funding costs
and capital expenditure (capex) in Turkiye, will translate into
solid positive FOCF generation and improving EBITDA interest
coverage comfortably at 3x-4x.
"We forecast Turkiye-based beverage company CCI overall credit
metrics, notably free operating cash flow (FOCF) and EBITDA
interest coverage, will stabilize in the next 12-18 months due to
our expectations for reduced borrowing costs in Turkiye and
resilient operating performance.
"Although CCI's majority shareholder Anadolu Efes (AEFES) continues
to face headwinds from both its Russian exposure and challenges in
its Turkish beer business cash generation, we think risks of
negative intervention on its better capitalized subsidiary, CCI,
should be contained. This is thanks to The Coca-Cola Co.'s (TCCC)
presence and tight bottling agreement, with voting rights on key
decisions.
"The rating action reflects our forecast that CCI's credit metrics
should stabilize in the next 12-18 months. This is thanks to
resilient demand and projected reduction in borrowing costs in
Turkiye and gradually reducing capex. We forecast overall revenue
growth of 30%-32% in 2025 and 24%-26% in 2026, with a return to
solid broad-based volume growth, both in Turkiye and most
international markets, following various challenges including
natural disasters in Turkiye and Pakistan in 2023-2024.
"We forecast volume growth of about 8% in 2025, with 2.5% growth in
Turkiye and the rest international markets, except in Pakistan
where recent floods are pressuring the already strained economic
environment. We further anticipate the positive volume growth
momentum will sustain in 2026 at 6.0%-6.5%, assuming the company
maintains key initiatives to stimulate demand. In Turkiye, in
particular, this includes more sustained trade promotional activity
to stimulate demand in a high inflationary and weak confidence
environment.
"Assuming prudent operational expenses management and broadly
stable input costs, we forecast CCI's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA margins will improve toward 19% in 2025 (compared with 17.9%
in 2024) and remain broadly stable in 2026. CCI is on course to
complete its strong growth capex program in 2025 with the opening
of two new plants, one in Azerbaijan and another in Iraq, with
additional capacity expansion projects in Turkiye and Central Asia.
We expect the capex to sales ratio to decline toward 8% in 2025
(from 9.1% in 2024) and further toward 7.5% in 2026.
"Factoring in the expected reduction of key policy rate in Turkiye
toward 37.5% in 2025 and 20% in 2026 (from 47.5% in 2024), we
project FOCF will return to solid positive levels of close to TRY2
billion in 2025 and toward TRY6.5 billion-TRY7 billion in 2026. We
therefore also forecast EBITDA interest coverage will improve
toward 3.2x-3.3x in 2025 and 4.0x in 2026, from the weak point of
2.4x in 2024. We consider these metrics as supportive of the 'BB+'
rating.
"CCI has been deploying other initiatives to improve its FOCF
generation and interest coverage metrics, in addition to our
expectations of benefiting from reducing borrowing costs in
Turkiye." CCI has been leveraging on its established footprint and
strong balance sheet abroad to reduce the high interest-rate burden
in Turkiye. This has allowed it to maintain lower borrowing costs
domestically by 400-500 basis points from the prevailing reference
rate (above 40% in 2024 and the first half of 2025), a rate that is
much lower than for pure domestic Turkish nonfinancial corporates.
It has also accelerated upstreaming dividends from international
markets to reduce the need to borrow locally. S&P said, "We think
this has enabled CCI to maintain overall good interest coverage
well above 2x, materially higher than for pure domestic players on
average. Finally, we understand that CCI is also looking at further
improving its FOCF generation through working capital optimization
initiatives. Specifically, it is focusing on tighter inventory
management and waste reduction, which should support the solid
improvement in FOCF we anticipate in 2026."
There are increasing risks for CCI's majority shareholder AEFES
following the placement of its Russian business in late 2024 under
temporary control by a local entity, but S&P thinks there are risk
mitigants and note that AEFES has not taken negative intervention
steps to date. AEFES has been contending with headwinds in its
Russian business since the beginning of the military conflict in
Ukraine.
S&P said, "Our ratings on CCI have been effectively aligned with
those of AEFES since the rating inception in 2021, mainly
reflecting AEFES' majority stake (50.3%) at CCI." The consequences
of the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the
ensuing incremental pressure on AEFES business have not led the
latter to change in any manner its behavior toward its better
capitalized subsidiary, especially as the key refinancing date in
2028 for its $500 million notes approaches. AEFES has also not
sought extraordinary support from its stronger subsidiary, even as
its own FOCF generation has been under pressure, particularly in
Turkiye, now its largest beer market. It has instead focused on
improving its own domestic FOCF generation instead and accumulating
sufficient balances ahead of the refinancing date.
S&P said, "At this stage, we do not anticipate any risk of an
extraordinary negative intervention from AEFES. One of the reasons
is the presence of TCCC (A+/Stable/A-1) as a significant minority
shareholder in CCI that grants exclusive licenses to its bottlers
and maintains key voting rights in its well-defined bottling
licensing agreements. In our view, the unique features in the
articles of association, which defines the governance rules between
the two parents, by and large insulate CCI from its majority parent
AEFES, but not fully. Indeed, with a 50.3% stake in CCI and
significant representation in the Board, we still think CCI is
still effectively controlled by AEFES. We further believe for
AEFES, the proportional cash dividends received from CCI have
recently become more important in the current context than before.
We therefore currently can rate CCI up to a maximum of three
notches above AEFES.
"Our base-case does not factor in any acquisitions because we think
CCI will remain prudent in the ongoing volatile macroeconomic
conditions across main markets. We also do not have visibility on
potential acquisitions because acquiring new territories would be
at the sole discretion of TCCC. We believe in the near term, the
company will focus on integrating and improving the operations of
the Bangladesh territory acquired in February 2024, where
macroeconomic challenges are a strong headwind. However, we believe
further acquisitions are possible over time because we continue to
see an ongoing global consolidation trend of Coca-Cola bottlers
around a few anchor players, one of which is CCI.
"In the meantime, we think the company will focus on navigating the
ongoing challenging environment, which necessitates select
promotional activity to stimulate weak demand. In terms of
financial policy, we note CCI is generally very prudent and seeks
to maintain reported net debt to EBITDA below 2x. We further assume
the company will continue to progressively increase its dividends
in line with earnings, thus maintaining a payout ratio of about
25%. This is within its policy but materially below the long-term
target of distribution not exceeding 50% of distributable income.
"We continue to factor in CCI's successful pass of our ratings
above the sovereign stress test, including transfer and
convertibility (T&C) assessments, allowing us to rate it above the
foreign currency rating on the Turkish government (BB-/Stable). CCI
continues to pursue its prudent funding policies by maintaining
large cash balances at all times, about $573 million-equivalent
amount as of June 30, 2025, of which 34% in USD denomination and
mostly in the Netherlands. Together with our projection of positive
FOCF in 2025 and 2026, these comfortably cover expected working
capital, capex, and interest expenses.
"Although the share of local short-term debt in Turkiye has
increased as a proportion of total debt (about 27% as of June-end
2025), notably comprising bonds and reflecting cash flow generation
challenges, we anticipate CCI will comfortably refinance these.
Importantly, the company does not have significant foreign currency
debt due in the next 24 months, with the most sizeable maturity
being the $500 million senior unsecured notes maturing in July
2029. CCI therefore continues to pass our sovereign stress test
comfortably, including T&C events, allowing us to rate it above the
foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating on Turkiye."
CCI is also adequately managing the headroom under its financial
covenants on the outstanding International Financial Corp. (IFC)
loans. CCI obtained waivers in early 2025 for the minimum EBITDA
net interest coverage of 3.25x tied to the loans through Dec. 31,
2025. It retains significant headroom under the maximum net debt to
EBITDA ratio of 3.25x.
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that CCI should
return to a path of profitable growth in the next 12-18 months,
with FOCF generation and interest coverage metrics benefiting from
an expected reduction in borrowing costs and lower capital
investments. We forecast solid volume growth of close to 8% in 2025
and 6.0%-6.5% in 2026, supported by select promotional activity,
notably in Turkiye. This, along with proactive price increases,
should support S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins
improvement toward 19%. This should translate into EBITDA interest
coverage of 3x-4x and FOCF to debt improving to about 5.5% and well
over 10% in 2025-2026.
"Our ratings on CCI could be pressured, and potentially lowered in
the next 12 months, if we observe material negative deviations from
our base case, notably EBITDA interest coverage remaining below 3x
and FOCF at neutral to negative with no prospects for rapid
improvement. This would likely stem from demand pressures in key
markets, notably Turkiye and Pakistan, or base interest rates not
converging toward 20% by the end of 2026, as we now expect. It
could also occur if the company adopts a more aggressive financial
policy stance, such as material debt-funded acquisitions in the
ongoing challenging context.
"We could also lower the ratings on CCI if we observe material
deterioration in the creditworthiness of majority shareholder
AEFES.
"At the stage, we consider an upgrade as a remote scenario in the
next 12 months. Beyond this horizon, we could raise the ratings on
CCI if the company outperforms our current base case by improving
EBITDA interest coverage and FOCF to debt above 6x and 25%,
respectively. In our view, this would hinge on materially improving
macroeconomic conditions in key end markets, notably Turkiye and
Pakistan, including strong reduction in high inflation rates and
funding costs, as well as solid demand momentum for the company's
products. These factors should translate into improving consumer
confidence, spurring strong demand and volume growth of CCI's
product portfolio. A positive rating action under this scenario
would also be contingent on our views of reducing pressures on the
creditworthiness of the majority shareholder AEFES."
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ACRE INVEST: Verulam Advisory Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Acre Invest (Luton) Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice, Court Number:
CR-2025-006918, and William Turner and Peter Nicholas Wastell of
Verulam Advisory were appointed as administrators on Oct. 6, 2025.
Acre Invest (Luton) is a property developer.
Its registered office is c/o Verulam Advisory, Second Floor, The
Annexe, New Barnes Mill, Cottonmill Lane, St Albans, Herts AL1 2HA
Its principal trading address is at Vaughan Chambers, Vaughan Road,
Harpenden, AL5 4EE
The joint administrators can be reached at:
William Turner
Peter Nicholas Wastell
Verulam Advisory
Second Floor, The Annexe
New Barnes Mill
Cottonmill Lane
St Albans AL1 2HA
Contact information for Administrators:
Email: info@verulamadvisory.co.uk
BLERIOT MIDCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B2 corporate family rating and
B2-PD probability of default rating of aerospace and defense
supplier Bleriot Midco Limited (Ontic). Concurrently, Moody's
affirmed the B2 ratings on the backed senior secured bank credit
facilities borrowed by its wholly-owned subsidiary Bleriot US
Bidco, Inc. The outlook on both entities remains stable.
The rating action reflects:
-- Very solid performance since the 2019 LBO, including an
acceleration of organic growth and a good track record of
integrating license acquisitions
-- Exposure to diverse products and platforms, albeit mature, and
backed by a robust order backlog in both Military and Civil
-- The company's consistently solid free cash flow generation
(before license acquisitions), tempered by high leverage and
debt-financed license acquisitions
RATINGS RATIONALE
Ontic has performed very well since closing its initial leveraged
buy-out in 2019. Revenue growth at constant perimeter has
accelerated in the past few years, comfortably exceeding 5% on
average, according to Moody's estimates. At the same time, Ontic
has developed a track record of licence acquisitions for products
and platforms which it has successfully integrated. The added scale
benefitted customer relationships and manufacturing operations
while the new licences increased the diversity of Ontic's
portfolio.
The company has relied on incremental debt to fund its inorganic
growth while new borrowings also funded shareholder returns in the
context of a CVC fund-to-fund transfer in 2024. As a result,
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA at the end of June 2025 was
above 6x, which is elevated for the current ratings.
However, Ontic has a proven history of deleveraging and Moody's
expects that capability remains intact. Moody's expects revenue and
earnings for most of the company's large platforms to continue to
grow, supported by pricing and market share gains in particular.
Moody's also forecasts that Ontic will continue to generate free
cash flow (before license acquisitions) which could exceed $100
million annually in 2026-2027.
Ontic's B2 CFR continues to reflect the company's: (1)
market-leading position in OEM-licensed parts for legacy aerospace
and defense products; (2) limited exposure to the economic cycle,
driven by its large military end-market exposure, with overall good
platform and product diversification; (3) high margins, reflecting
strong bargaining power in legacy platform components, sole-source
positions, limited competition and low product substitution risks;
(4) relatively stable earnings stream of existing product base,
with high contractual protection from inflation; and (5) long
relationships with OEMs, underpinned by product and transition
expertise.
On the flipside, the CFR also reflects: (1) potential for supply
chain challenges to affect customer production rates or the
company's own ability to supply; (2) high Moody's-adjusted leverage
of above 6.0x; (3) a very active acquisition strategy, funded by
additional debt; (4) relatively small scale and high degree of
geographic concentration with potential for volatility of earnings
depending on the timing of orders; and (5) reliance on
relationships with OEMs, which could be hurt by loss of key
personnel or weak execution of new license transitions.
LIQUIDITY
Ontic maintains adequate liquidity, thanks to (i) cash of $86
million at June 30, 2025, (ii) a fully undrawn $125 million backed
senior secured first-lien revolving credit facility (RCF), maturing
in 2028, and (iii) Moody's expectations of solid free cash flow
generation before license acquisitions. However, Moody's also
expects that the company will use these resources to finance
further license acquisitions. The RCF is subject to a springing
first-lien net leverage covenant, tested when drawings exceed 40%
of total commitments, under which Moody's expects the company to
retain substantial headroom.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2 rating on the $1,557 million backed senior secured
first-lien term loan maturing in 2030 and pari passu ranking $125
million backed senior secured first-lien RCF maturing in 2028 are
in line with the CFR, reflecting the first-lien only capital
structure.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that the company
will operate with Moody's-adjusted leverage below 6x while
maintaining organic revenue and EBITDA growth. The stable outlook
also assumes that (1) Ontic will generate free cash flow/debt,
before new license acquisitions, at least in the mid to high single
digit percentages, (2) the company will maintain adequate
liquidity, and (3) no debt-financed acquisitions or distributions
that result in a material increase in leverage above 6x will
occur.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be upgraded if (i) Ontic consistently grows its
revenue and EBITDA at constant perimeter, (ii) Moody's-adjusted
leverage reduces sustainably below 5x, (iii) FCF/debt before
license acquisitions exceeds 10%, and (iv) liquidity remains at
least adequate. In addition, the company would need to demonstrate
a financial policy consistent with sustaining the above metrics.
The ratings could be downgraded if (i) revenue and EBITDA decline
organically, (ii) Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA remains
sustainably above 6x, or (iii) free cash flow before license
acquisitions reduces toward zero or liquidity concerns arise.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Aerospace and
Defense published in July 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Ontic, headquartered in Cheltenham, England, is a leading provider
of mature OEM-licensed parts and repair and overhaul services to
the aerospace and defense industry. In the 12 months ended June 30,
2025, Ontic reported revenues of $731 million and EBITDA before
exceptional items of $271 million. Ontic has been majority-owned by
financial sponsor CVC since 2019.
BUILDING SERVICES: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------
Building Services Recruit Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts in Manchester, Insolvency and Companies List (ChD), Court
Number: CR-2025-MAN-001364, and Martyn Rickels and Anthony Collier
of FRP Advisory Trading Limited were appointed as administrators on
Sept. 30, 2025.
Building Services engaged in temporary employment agency
activities
Its registered office is at Burton Manor, The Village, Burton,
Cheshire, CH64 5SJ to be changed to c/o FRP Advisory Trading
Limited, 4th Floor Abbey House Booth Street, Manchester, M2 4AB
Its principal trading address is at Burton Manor, The Village,
Burton, Cheshire, CH64 5SJ
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Martyn Rickels
Anthony Collier
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
4th Floor, Abbey House
Booth Street
Manchester M2 4AB
For further information, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 0161 833 3344
Alternative contact:
Ben Smith
Email: cp.manchester@frpadvisory.com
CHESTER A PLC: Moody's Hikes Rating on Class E Notes From Ba3
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings of 4 notes in Chester A
PLC and Elstree Funding No. 3 Plc. The rating action reflects the
increased levels of credit enhancement and Moody's assessments of
the likelihood of prolonged missed interest payments for Chester A,
and better than expected collateral performance for Elstree Funding
No. 3 Plc.
Moody's affirmed the ratings of the notes that had sufficient
credit enhancement to maintain their current ratings.
Issuer: Chester A PLC
GBP1482.8M Class A Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15,
2022 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
GBP140.3M Class B Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul 15,
2022 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
GBP130.2M Class C Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul 15,
2022 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
GBP80.2M Class D Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul
15, 2022 Upgraded to A3 (sf)
GBP40.1M Class E Notes, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jul
15, 2022 Upgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Issuer: Elstree Funding No.3 Plc
GBP265.7M Class A Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 23,
2023 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
GBP23.4M Class B Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 23,
2023 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
GBP12.1M Class C Notes, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Mar
23, 2023 Definitive Rating Assigned A3 (sf)
GBP4.8M Class D Notes, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar 23,
2023 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action on Chester A PLC is prompted by an increase in
credit enhancement for the affected tranches and Moody's
assessments of the low likelihood of prolonged missed interest
payments.
The rating action on Elstree Funding No. 3 Plc is prompted by
decreased key collateral assumptions, namely the portfolio Expected
Loss (EL) and MILAN Stressed Loss assumptions due to better than
expected collateral performance and an increase in credit
enhancement for the affected tranches.
Revision of Key Collateral Assumptions:
As part of the rating action, Moody's reassessed Moody's lifetime
loss expectation for the portfolio reflecting the collateral
performance to date.
The performance of Chester A PLC has continued to slightly worsen
since last year. 90 days plus arrears currently stand at 27.10% of
current pool balance showing an increasing trend over the past
year. Cumulative losses currently stand at 0.92% of original pool
balance up from 0.81% a year earlier.
Moody's maintained the expected loss assumption at 4.20% as a
percentage of original pool balance for Chester A PLC.
Moody's reassessed loan-by-loan information to estimate the loss
Moody's expects the portfolio to incur in a severe economic stress.
As a result, Moody's have maintained the MILAN Stressed Loss
assumption at 22.30% for Chester A PLC.
The performance of the Elstree Funding No.3 Plc has continued to be
stable since last year. 90 days plus arrears currently stand at
0.09% of current pool balance showing a stable trend over the past
year. There are still no losses for Elstree Funding No.3 Plc.
Moody's decreased the expected loss assumption to 2.35% as a
percentage of current pool balance due to stable performance. The
revised expected loss assumption corresponds to 1.76% as a
percentage of original pool balance down from 2.77%.
Moody's reassessed loan-by-loan information to estimate the loss
Moody's expects the portfolio to incur in a severe economic stress.
As a result, Moody's have decreased the MILAN Stressed Loss
assumption to 14.40% from 17.10%.
Increase in Available Credit Enhancement
Sequential amortization led to the increase in the credit
enhancement available in Chester A PLC.
For instance, the credit enhancement for the Class D Notes of
Chester A PLC affected by the rating action increased to 29.68%
from 14.26% since the last rating action, and the credit
enhancement for the Class E Notes of Chester A PLC increased to
24.01% from 10.99%.
Sequential amortization also led to the increase in the credit
enhancement available in Elstree Funding No.3 Plc.
For instance, the credit enhancement for the Class C Notes of
Elstree Funding No.3 Plc affected by the rating action increased to
8.75% from 6.50% at closing, and the credit enhancement for the
Class D Notes of Elstree Funding No.3 Plc increased to 6.73% from
5.00%.
Assessment of the likelihood of prolonged missed interest
For Chester A PLC, interest payments have been paid timely so far.
Interest payments for the Class D Notes and Class E Notes are
dependent on any excess spread left after covering senior expenses,
interest on the more senior tranches and losses.
Moody's analysis considers the very low likelihood of prolonged
interest deferrals on Class D Notes and the likelihood of interest
deferrals on Class E Notes in the future. Moody's considered that
the more senior Notes are likely to be outstanding for a while and
there is still a substantial probability of interest deferral for
the Class E Notes.
Counterparty Exposure
The rating actions took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as servicer, account banks or swap
providers.
Moody's considered how the liquidity available in the transactions
and other mitigants support continuity of note payments, in case of
servicer default, using the CR assessment as a reference point for
servicers.
Both transactions have reserves only available for the Class A
notes. The ratings of the Class B, C and D Notes of Chester A PLC
and the rating of the Class B Notes of Elstree Funding No.3 Plc are
constrained by operational risk due to insufficient liquidity.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Residential
Mortgage-Backed Securitizations" published in October 2024.
The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of
ratings for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less
relevant or typically remain unchanged during the surveillance
stage.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that
is better than Moody's expected, (2) an increase in available
credit enhancement and (3) improvements in the credit quality of
the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected,
(3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and
(4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction
counterparties.
GLOBAL ACADEMIC: Fitch Assigns 'BB-(EXP)' IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Global Academic Holdings Ltd (GAHL) an
expected Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BB-(EXP)';
Outlook Stable. Fitch assigned GAH Finco Limited's planned
(equivalent) EUR500 million term loan a senior secured rating of
'BB+(EXP)', with a Recovery Rating of 'RR2'. The ratings are
contingent on the final documents conforming to information
reviewed.
Fitch has placed the 'B+' rating on Global University Systems
Holding B.V.'s (GUSH) EUR1 billion notes issued by Markermeer
Finance B.V. on Rating Watch Positive (RWP).
The 'BB-(EXP)' IDR reflects GAHL's moderate leverage, good
diversification across under and post-graduate university and
higher education courses, different disciplines and geographies
with modest execution risks, as well as its strong free cash flow
(FCF) capacity. GAHL is the top entity of the restricted group
following the reorganisation of the GUSH group to incorporate the
group's most profitable wholly-owned institutions. Fitch expects to
withdraw GUSH's ratings on deal close. The new money will repay
group debt and pay a cash distribution and deal fees.
Key Rating Drivers
Improved Leverage Supports Rating: Fitch expects opening pro forma
EBITDAR leverage under the new capital structure of about 3.7x in
FY26, improving towards 3.0x in FY28 due to revenue growth and
moderate margin expansion over the rating horizon. GAHL's
deleveraging capability is supported by a negative working capital
position generating cash inflows when turnover rises, driving
positive underlying FCF in its forecasts to May 2029.
The rating also reflects its understanding that management will
maintain strong financial discipline under its new consolidation
perimeter. Fitch expects the company to be guided by its
medium-term leverage target below 2.5x (company defined) with
controlled M&A and/or limited scope for shareholder remuneration.
Regulatory Changes in Canada: Canadian immigration policy changes
have created challenges for GAHL's Canadian operations. These
changes have established a more restrictive environment for
international student recruitment through visa caps and Provincial
Attestation Letters (PAL) and will affect GAHL's growth in the
Canadian market in the short to medium term. Caps have restricted
the number of undergraduate visas to about 360,000 from January
2024, and postgraduate students were brought under a combined cap
from September 2024.
Geographic Diversification Mitigates Risks: However, GAHL's
geographically diverse portfolio across different countries
including the UK, India and Germany provides revenue
diversification that mitigates regulatory risks in any single
market. Canada remains a core market for GAHL, and management is
working to increase domestic student enrolment in this market (only
around 1% of its Canadian student base) and increasing its offering
of online degrees.
Recurring, Diverse Income Streams: GAHL benefits from a varied
income stream stemming from its geographically diverse, single- or
multiyear course offering, spanning vocational and professional
tuition and under-graduate and post-graduate degrees. Some courses
are for two or more years, resulting in some inelasticity in its
revenue profile. Recurring revenues, combined with low capex
requirements, are positive factors for FCF generation. Fitch
expects double-digit annual revenue growth between FY26 and FY29 at
group level, supported by an increasing student intake. GAHL
continues to benefit from the uncorrelated performance of its
portfolio institutions.
Steady Group Profitability: Fitch expects solid profitability at
GAHL's group level, with Canada accounting for a high proportion of
EBITDA contribution. Fitch projects that the group's EBITDA margin
will remain above 20% over the rating horizon and that GAHL should
be able to adequately manage cost and wage inflation through fee
increases. Fitch believes Canada's profitability is likely to
stabilise after a period of rapid expansion due to capacity limits
and management's decision to maintain optimal student-teacher
ratios.
Moderate Execution Risks: The group's intention to rapidly ramp up
student enrolment, by increasing international student recruitment
and offering more online courses, bears some risks despite
management's recent successful growth strategy in Canada.
Increasing volumes within existing campus infrastructure and online
experiences could dilute the student experience and teaching
standards, which may risk diminishing GAHL's institutions'
reputation for quality. Dependence on overseas students could also
make business volumes vulnerable to governments' immigration
policies.
Continued Acquisition Appetite: The rating factors in around GBP50
million a year for bolt-on M&A over 2028-2029 - which could be
higher without necessarily derailing the deleveraging profile.
Alternatively, cash could be used for new campus development and
expansion of existing campuses (through greenfield capex projects).
GAHL may also pursue debt-funded acquisitions, which may increase
leverage temporarily. However, value-accretive acquisitions should
lead to an increase in profitability over the medium term, as Fitch
assumes GAHL would apply its content and student growth template.
Peer Analysis
GAHL benefits from higher income diversification by geography and
by type of higher education offering by field and format than
private education providers with credit opinions at the lower end
of the 'B' rating category.
GAHL has wider breadth than the K-12 schools of Lernen Bidco
Limited (B/Stable). However, it offers shorter courses, typically
of three to four years (longer for part-time), whereas retention
will be higher for primary and secondary schools. As GAHL has
expanded, its reliance on international student enrolments has
risen. GAHL is recruiting international students for its Canada
operations, while other locations have served local students in its
India and UK locations.
Key Assumptions
- Revenue growth in mid double digits driven by growing student
intake in divisions such as Canada, India and LCCA, alongside
single-digit annual fee increases; revenue growth to stabilise over
the later years as enrolment slows
- Group EBITDA margins remaining above 20% and improving to around
24% by 2028, driven by student growth in Canada
- Working capital inflows of 2.5% of revenues
- Annual capex on average at around 4.5% of revenues to FY29
- Combination of M&A and dividends of around GBP100 million in FY28
increasing to GBP125 million in FY29
Recovery Analysis
Fitch rates GAHL's senior secured rating at 'BB+(EXP)' in
accordance with its Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instrument
Ratings Criteria, under which it applies a generic approach to
instrument notching for 'BB' rated issuers. Fitch labels GAHL's
proposed term loan as "Category 2 first lien" under its criteria,
resulting in a Recovery Rating of 'RR2', with a two-notch uplift
from the IDR to 'BB+(EXP)'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A weakening reputational profile and/or more aggressive
debt-funded acquisitions, which lead to lease-adjusted gross
debt/EBITDAR above 3.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDAR fixed-charge coverage below 3.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA margin consistently under 20%
- FCF margin falling to low single digits
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Increasing scale, with EBITDA exceeding GBP250 million and EBITDA
margin remaining consistently at mid-20%
- EBITDAR fixed-charge coverage above 4.5x on a sustained basis
- Lease-adjusted gross debt/EBITDAR below 2.5x on a sustained
basis
- FCF margin remaining sustainably at mid-single digits
Liquidity and Debt Structure
GAHL has satisfactory liquidity, which includes GBP95 million of
cash on balance sheet as of August 2025. Liquidity is also
supported by a GBP50 million revolving credit facility with a
6.5-year tenor. The new EUR500 million term loan, split between
EUR385 million term loan B (TLB) and GBP100 million term loan (as
currently planned) would have a seven-year tenor following the
contemplated refinancing.
Issuer Profile
GAHL is a global, for-profit, privately owned, under- and
post-graduate university and higher education group.
Summary of Financial Adjustments
- Fitch views leases as a core financing decision for GAHL under
its property-based services, unlike other service providers and,
therefore, use lease-adjusted metrics in assessing its financial
risk profile.
- The company's long-dated real estate leases mean Fitch calculates
lease liabilities by capitalising lease cost proxy, calculated as
the sum of its annual cash lease, at an 8x multiple. This is
similar to the implied lease multiple used for other education
peers.
- Fitch has classified GBP20 million of cash as restricted cash.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Markermeer
Finance B.V.
senior secured LT B+ Rating Watch On RR3 B+
Global University
Systems Holding
B.V. LT IDR B Rating Watch On B
GAH Finco Limited
senior secured LT BB+(EXP) Expected Rating RR2
Global Academic
Holdings Ltd LT IDR BB-(EXP) Expected Rating
INDIGO FURNISHINGS: Antony Batty Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------------
Indigo Furnishings Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-006708, and
Jeffrey Mark Brenner and James Stares of Antony Batty & Company LLP
were appointed as administrators on Oct. 6, 2025.
Indigo Furnishings, trading as Living Space, engaged in furniture
retail.
Its registered office is at 80 Coleman Street, London, EC2R 5BJ
Its principal trading address is at 36 Cross Street, Islington, N1
2BG
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Jeffrey Mark Brenner
James Stares
Antony Batty & Company LLP
3 Field Court, Gray's Inn
London, WC1R 5EF
For further details, contact:
Sheniz Bayram
Tel No: 020-7831-1234
Email: sheniz@antonybatty.com
INTERSTELLAR MUSIC: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------------
Interstellar Music Services Ltd was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-006705, and
Duncan Beat and Andrew Watling of Quantuma Advisory Limited, were
appointed as administrators on Oct. 2, 2025.
Interstellar Music engaged in support activities to performing
arts.
Its registered office is at 27 Old Gloucester Street, London, WC1N
3AX and it is in the process of being changed to Office D Beresford
House, Town Quay, Southampton, SO14 2AQ
Its principal trading address is at 27 Old Gloucester Street,
London, WC1N 3AX
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Andrew Watling
Duncan Beat
Quantuma Advisory Limited
Office D, Beresford House, Town Quay
Southampton, SO14 2AQ
For further details, please contact
Abigail Bundy
Tel No: 02380 821 867
Email: Abigail.Bundy@quantuma.com
LIVE UNLIMITED: Kallis & Co. Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
Live Unlimited Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of
England and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-006529, and Sean Bucknall
and Andreas Arakapiotis of Kallis & Co. UK Limited, were appointed
as administrators on Oct. 2, 2025.
Live Unlimited is a manufacturer of other wearing apparel and
accessories.
Its registered office is at 5th Floor, 361-373 City Road, London,
EC1V 1LR and it is in the process of being changed to 3rd Floor, 37
Frederick Place, Brighton, BN1 4EA
Its principal trading address is at 5th Floor, 361-373 City Road,
London, EC1V 1LR
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Sean Bucknall
Quantuma Advisory Limited
3rd Floor, 37 Frederick Place
Brighton, BN1 4EA
-- and --
Andreas Arakapiotis
Kallis & Co. UK Limited
Mountview Court, 1148 High Road
Whetstone, London, N20 0RA
For further details, contact:
Edward Allingham
Tel No: 01273 322415
Email: Edward.Allingham@quantuma.com
OCS PARCO: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR & Alters Outlook to Negative
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B2 long-term corporate family
rating and B2-PD probability of default rating of OCS Parco Limited
(OCS or the company). Concurrently, Moody's affirmed the B2 ratings
on the backed senior secured term loan B and the backed senior
secured revolving credit facility (RCF) issued by OCS Group
Holdings Limited. The outlook on both entities was changed to
negative from stable.
OCS is raising GBP290 million equivalent incremental term loan
fungible into the existing GBP872 million equivalent backed senior
secured term loan B. Proceeds from the issuance will be used to
repay a vendor loan note, fund the acquisition of EMCOR Group (UK)
plc (EMCOR UK), and pay associated fees and expenses.
The change of outlook to negative reflects Moody's estimates that
the proposed debt issuance will increase leverage above 7.0x and
the risk that OCS' key credit metrics will exceed Moody's
requirements for the B2 rating for longer than currently expected.
OCS is weakly positioned in the rating category and further
downward pressure could develop should the company continue to
undertake material debt-funded acquisitions or fail to improve
profits in line with Moody's expectations.
RATINGS RATIONALE
OCS is in the process of acquiring EMCOR UK in an all-cash
transaction for a consideration of GBP204 million. Subject to
regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, the
transaction is expected to close by the end of 2025. Moody's
recognizes the strategic rationale of the acquisition, which will
shift OCS' service line mix towards hard and integrated facility
management (IFM) services, while also offering cross-sell
opportunities into the combined customer base. EMCOR UK brings
established customer relationships in attractive end markets, such
as defense and datacenters, which are highly complementary to OCS'
existing operations.
However, the acquisition of EMCOR UK is taking place less than a
year after OCS acquired FES, which is still undergoing integration,
indicating the company's sustained appetite for inorganic growth.
Moody's estimates that the proposed transaction will increase
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA to 7.4x, after costs the company deems
exceptional, on a pro forma basis for the 12 months ended in June
2025, and that leverage will remain elevated for the next 12-18
months until planned synergies are achieved. Moody's had previously
stated that the B2 rating would come under negative pressure if
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage remains above 6.0x for a sustained
period of time.
Future deleveraging is based on Moody's forecasts that the company
will continue to enhance its profitability, driven by sustained
growth in both prices and volumes, successful integration of
acquired businesses, and ongoing realisation of synergies. Moody's
anticipates this will lead to an increase in Moody's adjusted EBITA
margin towards 6% over the next 12-18 months.
Acquisition and integration costs, along with strategic capital
investments, will continue to negatively impact free cash flow
(FCF) generation. Initially, when the rating was first assigned,
Moody's had projected FCF to turn positive by 2025. However,
Moody's now expect FCF will remain negative through 2025 and will
only turn positive in 2026, aided by underlying earnings growth and
a reduction in company-defined exceptional costs.
The B2 CFR remains supported by: the company's established position
in the facility management market and leading market shares in its
key countries of operations, namely the UK, Ireland, Thailand and
New Zealand; a broad range of service offerings with an increasing
proportion of hard and IFM services; balanced end-market exposure
and strategic focus on countercyclical sectors, like education,
retail and government; high customer retention rates; its ability
to pass-through cost inflation to clients; track record of
mid-single digit organic top-line growth; and Moody's expectations
of increasing profitability over the next few years.
Counterbalancing these strengths are: the increase in
Moody's-adjusted leverage to 7.4x in the 12 months ended June 2025
pro forma for the transaction; its weaker than expected free cash
flow generation, impacted by integration and acquisition costs; the
competitive and fragmented nature of the facility services market,
constraining margins; and the potential for further debt-funded M&A
transactions which would delay the deleveraging trajectory of the
business.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Governance was a driver of the rating action reflecting the
company's tolerance for high leverage and its sustained appetite
for debt-funded inorganic growth.
LIQUIDITY
The company's liquidity is adequate. Following the refinancing
transaction, the company is likely to have a cash balance of GBP67
million and access to a GBP220 million committed RCF due in May
2031, of which GBP31 million are currently drawn. In addition, the
company has access to a GBP220 million receivables securitisation
facility, of which GBP143 million were used as of June 2025. The
facility is committed until December 31, 2026.
The RCF has a springing first lien net leverage covenant tested if
drawings reach or exceed 40% of facility commitments. Should it be
tested, Moody's expects OCS to retain ample headroom against a test
level of 7.25x (June 2025: 4.3x). OCS has no debt maturities in the
near term, with the GBP1.2 billion equivalent term loan maturing in
November 2031.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2-PD probability of default rating reflects Moody's typical
assumption of a 50% family recovery rate, and takes account of the
covenant-lite structure of the term loans. The B2 ratings on the
term loan and the RCF are in line with the CFR, reflecting the pari
passu capital structure of the company.
RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the weaker financial profile of the
company following the transaction and the risk that OCS' key credit
metrics will exceed Moody's requirements for the B2 rating for
longer than anticipated. It also reflects the execution risk
related to the integration of the acquired companies and the
potential for further debt-funded M&A transactions that would delay
the pace of de-leveraging.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive pressure on the rating is unlikely to develop in the next
12-18 months but could arise over time if:
-- The company continues to report organic top line growth and
profitability improvements; and
-- Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA decreases sustainedly below 4.5x;
and
-- Moody's-adjusted EBITA/interest improves above 2.5x; and
-- Moody's-adjusted free cash flow/debt improves towards the high
single digits in percentage terms for a sustained period.
Conversely, Moody's would consider a rating downgrade if:
-- The company's operating performance weakens, as evidenced by
declining revenues or margins; or
-- Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 6.0x; or
-- Moody's-adjusted EBITA/interest remains below 1.5x; or
-- Moody's-adjusted free cash flow/debt fails to turn sustainably
positive or liquidity weakens.
Negative rating pressure could also arise should the company
continue to prioritise material debt-funded M&A transactions or
demonstrate a more aggressive financial policy.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in November 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
OCS is an established multinational facility services provider
offering both soft and hard services to a number of sectors
including healthcare, retail, government, aviation and
manufacturing, amongst others. The company has a customer base of
approximately 8,200 organisations across the UK, Ireland, Asia
Pacific and the Middle East regions and employs around 130,000
people.
The group was acquired by the private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier
& Rice, LLC (CD&R) in November 2022 and subsequently combined with
Servest - La Financiere ATALIAN S.A.S.'s UK, Ireland and Asia
facilities management operations in February 2023. In the 12 months
ended June 2025, the group reported revenues of GBP2.5 billion and
company-adjusted EBITDA of GBP181 million.
RENEWABLE MICRO: bk plus Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------
Renewable Micro Solutions Ltd was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales Insolvency and Companies, No
CR2025BHM000516 of 2025, and Brett Lee Barton and Simon Wall and
Richard Tonks of bk plus Limited were appointed as administrators
on Oct. 2, 2025.
Renewable Micro Solutions engaged in business support service
activities.
Its registered office is at 2 Progress Way, Binley Industrial
Estate, Coventry, CV3 2NT
Its principal trading address is at Progress Way, Binley Industrial
Estate, Coventry, West Midlands, CV3 2NT
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Brett Lee Barton
Simon Wall
Richard Tonks
bk plus Limited
Azzurri House, Walsall Business Park
Walsall Road, Walsall
West Midlands, WS9 0RB
Email: brett.barton@bkplus.co.uk
richard.tonks@bkplus.co.uk
simon.wall@bkplus.co.uk
Tel No: 01922-914-896
For further information, contact:
Natasha Tapper
bk plus Limited
Tel No: 01922 922050
Email: natasha.tapper@bkplus.co.uk
TOWD POINT 2024-GRANITE 6: Fitch Lowers Rating on F Notes to B-
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2024 -
Granite 6 PLC's (TPMF - Granite 6) class C, D, E and F notes and
affirmed the rest. All ratings have been removed from Under
Criteria Observation.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Towd Point Mortgage
Funding 2024 –
Granite 6 PLC
Class A1 XS2799791848 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B XS2799792226 LT AA-sf Affirmed AA-sf
Class C XS2799790105 LT A-sf Downgrade Asf
Class D XS2799790360 LT BBB-sf Downgrade BBBsf
Class E XS2799790444 LT BB-sf Downgrade BB+sf
Class F XS2799793034 LT B-sf Downgrade Bsf
Transaction Summary
TPMF - Granite 6 is a securitisation of owner-occupied (OO)
residential mortgage assets originated by Northern Rock and secured
against properties in England, Scotland and Wales. The pool also
contains a small portion of unsecured loans (about GBP51.4 million
at closing, GBP36.2 million as of July 25) linked to mortgage
products. The assets were previously securitised in the Granite
Master Trust and in several of the Towd Point Mortgage Funding
(TPMF) series of transactions, most recently TPMF - Granite 4 and
5.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
UK RMBS Rating Criteria Updated: The rating actions reflect Fitch's
updated UK RMBS Rating Criteria (see " Fitch Ratings Updates UK
RMBS Rating Criteria" dated 23 May 2025). Key changes include
updated representative pool weighted average foreclosure
frequencies (WAFF), changes to sector selection, revised recovery
rate (RR) assumptions and changes to cash flow assumptions.
The non-conforming sector representative 'Bsf' WAFF has seen the
largest revision. Fitch applies dynamic default distributions and
high prepayment rate assumptions rather than the previous static
assumptions. Fitch's updated criteria account for worsening asset
performance by assuming loans in 12-months plus have defaulted at
the review date. The downgrades of the class C to F notes reflect
larger losses, resulting from revised RR expectations.
Sector Selection: Transaction performance of this pool is
considerably worse than Fitch's Prime index and in line with
Fitch's Non-Conforming Index. Fitch has therefore modelled the
transaction using the non-conforming sector assumptions rather than
adjusting the UK prime assumptions as Fitch did at closing. As per
the updated rating criteria, Fitch has treated loans more than 12
months in arrears as defaulted, which affects 7.3% of the total
asset balance as of July 2025 (in excess of the 1.3% reported
defaults).
Downgrades of Class C to F: The transaction amortises sequentially,
resulting in a build-up in credit enhancement (CE). However, the
class C to F notes are more sensitive to Fitch's updated criteria,
particularly the revised RR and default assumptions, which treat
loans that are more than 12 months in arrears as defaults for both
asset and cash-flow modelling. This, combined with updated sector
selection, and despite substantial deleveraging since closing,
results in larger expected losses levels and led to today's
downgrades.
Worsening Arrears Performance: As of July 2025, one-month-plus and
three-month-plus arrears were 25.1% and 20.4%, respectively, up
from 23.2% and 17.6% in December 2024. Early-stage arrears are
flattening on a loan-count basis, with the rise in overall arrears
driven by an amortising pool and loans migrating into deeper
arrears buckets.
Transaction Adjustment: The portfolio consists of seasoned OO
loans, predominantly originated between 2005 and 2008, with a high
portion of interest-only and restructured loans, and a small
unsecured component representing about 3% of the portfolio balance.
The transaction's historical performance is aligned with Fitch's
non-conforming indices; accordingly, Fitch applied its
non-conforming assumptions and an OO transaction adjustment of 1.0x
to FF in its analysis.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transactions' performance may be affected by changes in market
conditions and economic environment. Weakening economic performance
is strongly correlated with increasing levels of delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce CE available to the notes.
Additionally, unanticipated declines in recoveries could also
result in lower net proceeds, which may make certain notes
susceptible to negative rating action, depending on the extent of
the decline in recoveries.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the WAFF and 15% decrease of the
WARR would imply the following:
Class A1: 'AA-sf'
Class B: 'BBB+sf'
Class C: 'BB+sf'
Class D: 'Bsf'
Class E: 'CCCsf'
Class F: 'NRsf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Fitch found that a decrease in the WAFF of 15% and an increase in
the WARR of 15% would lead to the following:
Class A1: 'AAAsf'
Class B: 'AA+sf'
Class C: 'AA-sf'
Class D: 'A-sf'
Class E: 'BBBsf'
Class F: 'BBsf'
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch sought to receive a
third-party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio
information, but none was available for this transaction.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
TPMF - Granite 6 PLC has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer
Welfare - Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to a high
portion of interest-only loans in legacy OO mortgages, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
*********
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