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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Thursday, March 26, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 61
Headlines
A R M E N I A
CUBE INVEST: Fitch Affirms 'B-' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Positive
D E N M A R K
WS AUDIOLOGY: Fitch Affirms 'B' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
FORVIA SE: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
I R E L A N D
HARVEST CLO XXXIX: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F Notes
OCP EURO 2026-15: S&P Assigns Prelim B-(sf) Rating to Cl. F Notes
I T A L Y
RENO DE MEDICI: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'C'
R O M A N I A
PUBLIC POWER: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
R U S S I A
KAPITAL SUGURTA: Fitch Affirms & Withdraws 'CCC' IFS Rating
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
BLACKPOLE RECYCLING: KR8 Appointed as Joint Administrators
CRONUS FINANCE: Alvarez & Marsal Appointed as Joint Administrators
DRAX GROUP: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
EVENT WIFI: Ballard Business Appointed as Administrator
FEEL ELECTRIC: BTG Begbies Appointed as Administrators
HTA GROUP: S&P Assigns 'BB-' Rating to New Senior Unsecured Notes
JANUS HENDERSON: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
LONDON BRIDGING: FRP Appointed as Joint Administrators
LOWE RISER: JT Maxwell Appointed as Administrator
NOMAD FOODS: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
PEARL BRIDGING: BTG, Coots Appointed as Administrators
TILIA EQUITY: BTG, Coots Appointed as Administrators
VELOCITY 2026-1: Fitch Assigns 'Bsf' Final Rating to Class F Notes
WILSHIRE OPCO: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
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A R M E N I A
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CUBE INVEST: Fitch Affirms 'B-' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Positive
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Fitch Ratings has revised Cube Invest CJSC's Outlook to Positive
from Stable, while affirming its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) at 'B-'.
Key Rating Drivers
The Outlook revision reflects its strengthened expectation of
long-term performance resilience, backed by Cube's
stronger-than-expected 2025 results, a more stable earnings pattern
over recent quarters, early signs of franchise broadening and a
more favourable Armenian economic environment.
Cube's ratings are based on its standalone credit profile and are
constrained by its still small franchise, weak
(shareholder-concentrated) governance, business concentration and
market-risk sensitivity. The ratings also reflect recently strong
profitability and the ongoing diversification of its revenue,
moderate leverage and a liquid balance sheet.
Supportive Trends: Cube, along with the broader Armenian financial
sector, continues to benefit from supportive macroeconomic
conditions and increased capital inflows. The post-2022
Russia-related spike in inflows has largely receded, but capital
inflows from developed markets are rising and a generally
favourable domestic backdrop is supporting market activity and
financial-sector profitability. However, a portion of the recent
uplift, particularly brokers' large trading and FX gains, remains
cyclical and dependent on the market. Fitch, therefore, expects
normalisation through 2026-2027, with a sharp decrease in revenue
and profits.
Small, but Fast-Growing, Franchise: Business growth has been rapid
since 2022. The company focuses on securities and FX brokerage and
doubled its base of domestic institutional clients in each of 2024
and 2025 to reach 1,200 clients. Cube's revenue moderated in 2025
to AMD16 billion (equivalent of USD41 million) from AMD20 billion
in 2024, but remained higher than Fitch had expected. Cube is now
among the leading brokers in Armenia, but remains small relative to
domestic banks and the financial system overall. Fitch expects Cube
to continue widening its client base and product offering.
High Interest-Rate and FX Risk: Cube is exposed to high
interest-rate risk through its long-duration securities portfolio
(weighted-average remaining tenor of about 12 years at end-2025).
It also maintains a large net open FX position (about 0.7x capital
at end-3Q25), primarily short in Armenian drams, which management
views as strategic. Cube substantially reduced its illiquid
proprietary positions in 2025 to negligible levels; however, Fitch
believes risk appetite for such activity may still remain.
Concentrated Balance Sheet: Cube's balance sheet is concentrated,
both in asset exposure and liabilities. Positively, its core assets
are liquid, largely relating to Armenian government bonds (58% of
end-2025 total assets). This portfolio is largely funded through
repos with Armenian banks, which were 79% of total liabilities.
Another 17% was represented by clients' funds.
Exceptional Profits to Normalise: Cube benefitted from Armenia's
favourable operating environment and a spike in capital inflows,
leading to exceptional profits in 2023 and 2024. Fitch expects
these trends to fade in 2026-2027, resulting in the unwinding of
one-off gains and profit normalisation.
Cube's credit profile will depend on its ability to replace lumpy
trading-driven gains (mainly FX and proprietary securities trades)
with sustainable, more diversified revenue streams. Management is
pursuing new products (eg retail brokerage) and continued growth in
interest and fee income, while maintaining cost discipline,
particularly compensation costs. Fitch expects profitability to
remain a credit strength, provided normalisation is orderly and
diversification gains traction.
Adequate Capitalisation: Cube has retained part of the
extraordinary profits generated since late 2022, leading to a sharp
increase in its capital base. In 2025, Cube lowered its dividends
and senior management compensation, demonstrating the ability to
adjust them to reduced revenue, supporting strong internal capital
generation at a strong level of 60% in 2025. Cube maintains an
adequate buffer against its regulatory capital requirement of 12%
equity-to-risk weighted assets. This ratio was 14.7% at end-2025
(15.6% at end-2024) and Fitch expects the company to maintain it
above 14%, in line with the internal limit set by management.
ESG - Governance Structure: Cube's corporate governance framework
remains underdeveloped. Its two shareholders (who each own 50% of
Cube's share capital) control decision-making. This exposes Cube,
in its opinion to key person risk, in particular in view of weak
oversight functions. Risk policies, although formalised, could be
bypassed opportunistically, reflecting Cube's very high risk
appetite. The company recently established a board of directors,
but its efficiency and independence is yet to be proven. These
factors constrain its assessment of the Management and Strategy
factor. However, Fitch expects governance to strengthen over
2026-2029.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Sharp deterioration of profitability, with the operating profit
approaching 15% of average equity, would likely lead us to revise
the Outlook to Stable. The same would apply if solvency weakened
materially, for example through a notable increase in leverage or a
weakening of capital quality
Signs of impairment in Cube's business model viability, such as a
sharp increase in regulatory risk, revenue concentration,
substantial illiquid or impaired assets, or the realisation of
market risks, particularly interest-rate risk could result in a
downgrade of the IDR.
Increase in tangible leverage (net of repos) to above 5x, statutory
capital approaching the minimum requirement of 12%, or any indirect
sign of deterioration in the company's solvency, for example as a
result of a surge in receivables from related parties or asset
impairment, could also trigger a downgrade.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A rating upgrade would require further improvement in Cube's
business profile and oversight structure, which Fitch believes
could be achieved over 2026-2027, although not necessarily over the
next 12 months. This would include pronounced growth and
diversification of Cube's franchise, for example, supported by an
extended licence and broader product offering.
A continued improvement in corporate governance, for example
through attracting a strong institutional investor and further
strengthening board oversight and internal controls would also be
positive for the rating. A meaningful reduction in risk appetite
and a proven ability to access local capital markets would improve
its business profile.
ADJUSTMENTS
The sector risk operating environment score is below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): regulatory and
legal framework (negative).
The asset quality score has is below the implied score due to the
following adjustment reason(s): risk profile and business model
(negative).
The earnings and profitability score is below the implied score due
to the following adjustment reason(s): earnings stability
(negative).
The capitalization and leverage score is below the implied score
due to the following adjustment reason(s): risk profile and
business model (negative).
The funding, liquidity and coverage score is below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): business
model/funding market convention (negative).
ESG Considerations
Cube has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Governance Structure
reflecting high key-person risk due to significant dependence on
the two shareholders for decision-making. This has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is highly relevant to the rating,
resulting in an implicitly lower rating.
Cube has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Management Strategy due
to its opportunistic and reactive strategy, which is partly driven
by a very volatile operating environment, contributing to
fluctuations in its performance. This has a moderately negative
impact on Cube's credit profile and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Cube Invest CJSC LT IDR B- Affirmed B-
ST IDR B Affirmed B
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D E N M A R K
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WS AUDIOLOGY: Fitch Affirms 'B' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
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Fitch Ratings has affirmed WS Audiology A/S's (WSA) Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has
also affirmed WSA and WS Audiology USA II LLC's senior secured
rating on its term loan B (TLB) at 'B+', with a Recovery Rating of
'RR3'.
The IDR balances WSA's high financial leverage and volatile free
cash flow (FCF) generation against a strong business model
supported by its market position as the third-largest manufacturer
in the hearing-aid market.
The Stable Outlook reflects its assumption of gradually improving
organic sales development, supported by new product launches, amid
a soft market backdrop and weak pricing environment. There will be
execution risks, but Fitch expects WSA's EBITDA margins to remain
in the mid-to-high teens, supported by the progress in realising
operating efficiencies across its cost base that should lead to
steady deleveraging towards 6.0x by FY28 (financial year ending
September).
Key Rating Drivers
No Rating Headroom: Credit metrics remain weak, as the group
struggles to generate organic growth due to a weak consumer
environment, alongside intense competitive pressures. This has led
to expected EBITDA leverage of about 7.1x in FY26, above its
negative leverage sensitivity of 6.5x. Fitch projects EBITDA
leverage to fall gradually towards 6x in FY28, contingent on a
return to positive organic growth, supported by new product
launches.
Its leverage metrics reflect the company's reclassification of
capitalised R&D costs as operating expenses. In this context, its
7.1x EBITDA leverage forecast represents a decline in like-for-like
leverage from above 8.0x in FY24. Nonetheless, the deleveraging
trajectory has been significantly slower than expected, with
leverage remaining high for the rating, which leaves no headroom
for continued underperformance of its forecast.
EBITDA Resilient Despite Weak Sales: The Stable Outlook is driven
by WSA's ability to continue growing EBITDA, despite the market
slowdown in FY25. This was a result of strict management of the
customer base and cost efficiencies, particularly in selling,
general and administrative expenses and R&D, resulting in a
projected EBITDA margin improving to above 16% in FY26 from 15.4%
in FY25 and 13.5% in FY24. The EBITDA margin has been steadily
improving on a like-for-like basis and has been the main driver of
deleveraging since FY24.
Fitch expects WSA to maintain its disciplined customer base
management and deliver on innovation platform efficiencies as the
share of newly launched products increases, leading to steady
profitability improvements, driving the EBITDA margin towards 17%
by FY29.
Product Launches Support Sales Growth: Fitch expects the new
product launches planned for 2026 to support organic sales growth,
following weak performance in 2025. New launches in the Signia and
Widex families are expected to support organic growth in the
low-single digits that offsets some of the non-renewal of
margin-dilutive contracts. Coupled with a tough market environment,
where the underlying product portfolio is facing muted demand and
pricing pressure, this led to no organic revenue growth in FY25.
FCF Turns Positive from FY26: FCF in FY25 was significantly
negative, driven by one-time restructuring costs and an
extraordinary interest payment as a result of the corporate
restructuring in July 2025, which should be offset by lower
interest payments in FY26. Interest payments should remain at
EUR175 million-180 million in FY27-FY29, which, combined with
moderate working capital and capex requirements, should result in
positive FCF. Sustained negative FCF would signal persisting
operational vulnerabilities that would pressure the ratings.
Consumer Confidence Affects Growth: Growth of hearing aids has
slowed during the last decade, affected by lower consumer
confidence due to higher inflation and geopolitical uncertainty,
despite positive long-term fundamentals as reimbursement policies
are less favourable than those for optical aids with hearing aid
products representing discretionary, largely out-of-pocket
spending. Fitch expects the customer base to continue expanding,
albeit more slowly than before and subject to economic conditions,
driven by stronger penetration in large markets and higher
awareness of hearing loss issues. Historically, the market has seen
short-term growth bursts from pent-up demand as economic conditions
improve.
Peer Analysis
WSA is one of the top manufacturers and distributors in the hearing
aid industry, benefitting from significant scale, a large portfolio
of brands and widespread geographical coverage. The business
profile is a cross between a medical device manufacturer, supported
by resilient health-driven demand, and a consumer goods company.
Worldwide state- and private insurance-led reimbursement regimes
are rapidly developing. However, most expenses for such devices
remain discretionary and require co-payment by customers.
Fitch assesses WSA's business profile as a solid 'BB' rating, but
its lower profitability, weaker FCF profile and high leverage
constrain the credit profile at 'B'. The company's credit metrics
are broadly in line with those of manufacturers and retail entities
in sectors that share traits of healthcare and consumer products
such as Afflelou S.A.S. (B/Stable). These entities' business models
are also dependent on the marketing and distribution of R&D-led
products with a healthcare profile, which result in similar EBITDA
margins of 15%-25%.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Low single-digit organic sales growth, driven by new launches and
some pent-up demand from last year. A low-to-mid single digit
negative FX impact should result in low-single-digit revenue
decline
- Fitch-adjusted EBITDA margin slightly above 16% on an improved
customer base, and lower administrative and R&D costs, which should
gradually improve to 17% by 2029; its EBITDA calculation includes
capitalised R&D as operating expenses
- Capex at around 4%-4.5% of sales to FY29
- Working capital outflow of around EUR25 million-35 million in
FY26-FY29, to support revenue growth
- Bolt-on M&A of EUR20 million annually from 2027-2029
- No dividends paid for FY26-FY29
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bb-, Moderate), Sector Characteristics
(bb, Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bbb-, Higher),
Diversification and Asset Quality (bb, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (bbb-, Moderate), Profitability (b+,
Higher), Financial Structure (ccc, Moderate), and Financial
Flexibility (b+, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 30% for the forecast year 2026, 30% for the forecast year
2027 and 20% for the forecast year 2028.
- B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in an
adjustment of -1 notch(es).
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'a+' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'b'.
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that WSA would be considered a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy, and that it would be reorganised
rather than liquidated, given the inherent value of its product
portfolio, brands, retail network and clients.
- Fitch assesses WSA's GC EBITDA at about EUR300 million, which
after undertaking corrective measures should allow the company to
generate moderately positive FCF.
- Financial distress, leading to restructuring, may be the result
of new technologies in the hearing aid market or a widespread
diffusion of value-for-money devices. Both could lead to a loss of
pricing power across WSA's portfolio, reducing gross margins and
overall profitability.
- Fitch believes that restructuring would primarily be triggered by
an increase in leverage associated with financial distress given
WSA's moderately high leverage, leading to above-average debt
multiples. This is likely to materialise with EBITDA levels still
potentially able to generate neutral FCF.
- Fitch applies an enterprise value (EV) multiple of 6.5x EBITDA to
the GC EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganisation EV. The multiple
is at the high end of the range of multiples used for other
healthcare-focused credit opinions and ratings in the 'B' category,
reflecting WSA's strong global market position in the hearing-aid
market and scale.
- Its waterfall analysis generated a ranked recovery in the 'RR3'
band, indicating a 'B+' instrument rating for the senior secured
TLB 1, TLB 2 and revolving credit facility. The latter ranks pari
passu with the TLBs, and Fitch assumes it to be fully drawn upon
default.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA leverage above 6.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage over 2.0x on a sustained basis
- Low to neutral FCF generation
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA leverage below 5.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage over 2.5x on a sustained basis
- FCF margin in the mid-single digits on a sustained basis
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Fitch views WSA's liquidity as satisfactory, as it has EUR36
million of Fitch-adjusted cash available for debt repayment (Fitch
adjusts EUR60 million for intra-year working capital requirements),
in addition to EUR214 million available under its revolving credit
facility, with no major near-term maturities. Its assessment is
also underpinned its assumption of positive, FCF generation though
the next two years.
Issuer Profile
WSA is the combination formed in 2019 of Sivantos and Widex. WSA is
a global leading hearing aid company, with a multi-branded
portfolio of product and business brands.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for WS Audiology A/S.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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WS Audiology
USA II LLC
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
WS Audiology A/S LT IDR B Affirmed B
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
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F R A N C E
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FORVIA SE: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the Ba3 corporate family rating and
Ba3-PD probability of default rating of French automotive parts
supplier FORVIA SE (FORVIA or the company). Concurrently, Moody's
affirmed the B1 instrument ratings on FORVIA's senior unsecured
notes. The outlook remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of the ratings reflects FORVIA's stable organic
sales and slightly improved profitability in 2025, in an
environment of declining automotive production in Europe and the
Americas and an ongoing repositioning in China, where sales
continued to lag market growth. FORVIA's company adjusted operating
margin rose to 5.6%, in line with management's 5.2%-6.0% guidance,
from 5.2% in 2024. The improvement was primarily driven by
structural cost reductions and efficiency gains along the ongoing
execution of its EU FORWARD restructuring program. On a Moody's
adjusted basis, the company's EBIT margin recovered to 3.4% in
2025, from 2.8% in the prior year, well in line with Moody's
guidance for a Ba3 rating. Despite increased cash needs associated
with restructuring measures (EUR252 million) in 2025, materially
lowered capital spending supported strong growth in FORVIA's
company-defined net cash flow to EUR962 million, versus EUR655
million in 2024.
Nevertheless, FORVIA's credit metrics, especially its still
elevated leverage, remain weak for the Ba3 rating. After the
reclassification of the Interiors business (EUR4.8 billion of sales
in 2025) as discontinued operations, which FORVIA targets to divest
this year, its Moody's adjusted debt to EBITDA was 6.3x in 2025 (or
5.7x taking into account an expected post disposal EUR1.1 billion
net debt reduction), well above Moody's 5.0x maximum guidance for
the Ba3 rating category. Moody's understands that the company
intends to use the proceeds from the transaction, as well as
available excess cash for significant debt repayments (EUR1.4
billion guided by management), helping reduce leverage towards 5.5x
this year. A further deleveraging to well below this level through
2027 should also be aided by expected earnings growth thanks to
additional cost savings, efficiency gains and a material reduction
in restructuring related one-off costs beyond 2026.
Moody's views the planned divestment of Interiors positively from a
credit perspective, despite the resulting reduction in the group's
overall scale. Products of the business have a relatively low
technology content, profitability below group average and the
business is somewhat more capital intensive. The divestment
reflects FORVIA's strategy to sharpen its focus on
higher-value/technology and faster growing segments, especially its
electronics business, which management expects to grow at a
compound annual growth rate of around 10% through 2028.
With anticipated improving profitability, lower financing costs
capital spending, Moody's expects the transaction to also support a
better cash conversion and Moody's adjusted FCF in positive
territory over the next two years.
The affirmed Ba3 CFR further reflects as credit strengths FORVIA's
large scale, long-standing relationships with global automotive
manufacturers, good product, customer and geographic
diversification, including through its 81.6% stake in HELLA GmbH &
Co. KGaA (HELLA, Ba1 stable), a product portfolio that addresses
current megatrends in the automotive industry, and a financial
policy focused on reducing reported net leverage to 1.5x in 2026
and 1.2x by 2028.
These strengths are balanced against FORVIA's exposure to the
cyclical and price sensitive automotive industry, ongoing
large-scale restructuring that will continue to weigh on the
company's profitability and cash flows, while bearing executions
risks, and sustained high leverage.
This rating action is predicated upon Moody's baseline scenario
which assumes a short-lived conflict in the Middle East, likely a
matter of weeks. Nevertheless, Moody's recognizes that FORVIA
operates in an industry that is exposed to a further deterioration
in the Middle East conflict, which may have more consequential
impact on its creditworthiness.
LIQUIDITY
Moody's considers FORVIA's liquidity to be strong. As of December
31, 2025, the group reported cash and cash equivalents of
approximately EUR3.9 billion. Liquidity is further supported by
fully available committed revolving credit facilities, including
EUR1.5 billion and EUR0.5 billion syndicated credit facilities
(both maturing in 2028) and a EUR450 million credit facility at
HELLA. Moody's expects FORVIA to be able to generate funds from
operations sufficient to cover working capital needs, capital
spending, leasing liability and dividend payments (to minorities)
over the next 12 months.
Available cash sources, together with expected proceeds from the
Interior divestment further significantly exceed short-term
financial liabilities of EUR927 million as of December 31, 2025, as
well as significant debt maturities in the first half of 2027,
including bonds in an aggregate outstanding amount of EUR1.6
billion.
FORVIA's bank credit facilities agreements contain one financial
covenant (3.0x maximum adjusted net leverage), under which Moody's
expects the group to maintain sufficient capacity at all times.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The affirmed B1 instrument ratings on FORVIA's senior unsecured
notes, one notch below the Ba3 CFR, reflect their structural
subordination to substantial non-financial debt at operating
subsidiaries including HELLA, who has own significant financial
debt and non financial liabilities.
Moody's could consider aligning the instrument ratings with the CFR
at a higher rating level.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that FORVIA will
continue to improve its operating performance and cash generation,
while gradually reducing leverage towards 4.5x gross debt to EBITDA
by the end of 2027. The outlook also assumes the successful
completion of the Interiors divestment during 2026, broadly in line
with management's expectations.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade FORVIA's ratings, if its (1) EBIT margin
exceeds 3.5%, (2) leverage reduced to well below 4.5x gross debt to
EBITDA, (3) interest coverage improved to at least 5.5x EBITDA to
interest expense, and (4) FCF remained positive – all on a
sustained and Moody's-adjusted basis. An upgrade would further
require FORVIA to maintain consistently strong liquidity.
Moody's could downgrade the ratings, if FORVIA's (1) EBIT margin
remained below 3.0%, (2) leverage continued to exceed 5.0x gross
debt to EBITDA, (3) interest coverage remained below 4.5x EBITDA to
interest expense, or (4) FCF turned negative – all on a sustained
and Moody's-adjusted basis. Negative rating pressure would also
evolve if FORVIA's liquidity started to weaken.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Automotive
Suppliers published in November 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
FORVIA SE, headquartered in France, is one of the world's largest
automotive technology suppliers, with leading positions in seating,
electronics, lighting, clean mobility and lifecycle solutions. The
group benefits from a broad geographic footprint and long standing
relationships with global automotive manufacturers. Since the
acquisition in 2022, the company owns a 81.6% stake in HELLA GmbH &
Co. KGaA.
In 2025, FORVIA generated over EUR26 billion in sales and
company-adjusted EBITDA of EUR3.5 billion (13.4% margin).
The HELLA family pool is the group's largest shareholder holding 9%
of FORVIA's shares, followed by Exor N.V., a holding company
controlled by the Agnelli family (5%).
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I R E L A N D
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HARVEST CLO XXXIX: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Harvest CLO XXXIX
DAC's class A, B, C, D, E, and F notes. At closing, the issuer also
issued unrated subordinated notes.
The transaction has a 1.5 year noncall period and the portfolio's
reinvestment period ends 4.6 years after closing.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payment.
The ratings reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,747.74
Default rate dispersion 480.12
Weighted-average life (years) 5.23
Obligor diversity measure 133.02
Industry diversity measure 23.62
Regional diversity measure 1.26
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 450
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0
CCC rated assets ('CCC+','CCC', and 'CCC-') (%) 0.00
Number of performing obligors 163
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 35.84
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors, %) 3.47
The portfolio is well diversified at closing, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
senior secured bonds. Therefore, S&P conducted its credit and cash
flow analysis by applying its criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
S&P said, "In our cash flow analysis, we modeled the EUR450 million
target par amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread of 3.38%,
the covenanted weighted-average coupon of 3.75%, and the target
weighted-average recovery rates for all rated notes. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on Oct. 15, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio for so
long as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation
to the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain as established by
the initial cash flows for each rating and compares that with the
current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date. As a
result, until the reinvestment period ends, the collateral manager
may through trading deteriorate the transaction's current risk
profile, as long as the initial ratings are maintained.
"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk is
limited at the assigned ratings, as the exposure to individual
sovereigns does not exceed the diversification thresholds outlined
in our criteria.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"The transaction's legal structure is bankruptcy remote, in line
with our legal criteria.
"The operational risk associated with key transaction parties (such
as the collateral manager), that provide an essential service to
the issuer, is in line with our operational risk criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the class B, C,
D, and E notes could withstand stresses commensurate with higher
ratings than those assigned. However, as the CLO will have a
reinvestment period, during which the transaction's credit risk
profile could deteriorate, we capped our assigned ratings on these
notes.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class F notes could withstand stresses
commensurate with a lower rating. However, we applied our 'CCC'
rating criteria and assigned a 'B- (sf)' rating to this class of
notes." The ratings uplift for these notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- Their available credit enhancement, which is in the same range
as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has recently been
issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model generated break-even default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 24.76% (for a portfolio with a weighted-average
life of 5.23 years), versus if it was to consider a long-term
sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 5.23 years, which would result
in a target default rate of 16.74%.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
tranche defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Following our analysis of credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the class A
to F notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes in four
hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes.
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being related
to certain activities. Since the exclusion of assets from these
industries does not result in material differences between the
transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Harvest CLO XXXIX DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization of
a revolving pool, comprising primarily euro-denominated senior
secured loans and bonds. Investcorp Credit Management EU Ltd.
manages the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A AAA (sf) 279.00 38.00 3mE + 1.20%
B AA (sf) 49.50 27.00 3mE + 1.70%
C A (sf) 27.00 21.00 3mE + 2.30%
D BBB- (sf) 31.50 14.00 3mE + 2.95%
E BB- (sf) 20.25 9.50 3mE + 4.65%
F B- (sf) 13.50 6.50 3mE + 8.40%
Subordinated NR 42.00 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A, and B notes address timely
interest and ultimate principal payments. The ratings assigned to
the class C, D, E, and F notes address ultimate interest and
principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
3mE--Three-month EURIBOR.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered
Subordinated--Subordinated notes. Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
OCP EURO 2026-15: S&P Assigns Prelim B-(sf) Rating to Cl. F Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to OCP
Euro CLO 2026-15 DAC's class A, B-1, B-2, C, D, E, and F notes.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period will end approximately 4.6
years after closing, while the noncall period will end 1.5 years
after closing.
The preliminary ratings assigned to the notes reflect S&P's
assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows and excess spread.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which S&P expects to be
bankruptcy remote.
The transaction's counterparty risks, S&P expects to be in line
with our counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,620.78
Default rate dispersion 566.63
Weighted-average life (years) 4.96
Obligor diversity measure 172.77
Industry diversity measure 26.49
Regional diversity measure 1.30
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 0.00
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.03
Target weighted-average coupon (%) 3.63
Target weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.38
S&P said, "We expect the portfolio to be well diversified at
closing, primarily comprising broadly syndicated speculative-grade
senior secured term loans and senior secured bonds. Therefore, we
have conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by applying our
criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR450 million target par
amount, the actual weighted-average spread (3.38%), and the actual
weighted-average coupon (3.63%) as indicated by the collateral
manager. We assumed the targeted weighted-average recovery rates
(WARRs) for all rated notes. We applied various cash flow stress
scenarios, using four different default patterns, in conjunction
with different interest rate stress scenarios, for each liability
rating category.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-1 to E notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those we have
assigned. However, as the CLO will be in its reinvestment period
from closing until Oct. 18, 2030, during which the transaction's
credit risk profile could deteriorate, we have capped the assigned
preliminary ratings.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we expect
the transaction's exposure to country risk to be sufficiently
mitigated at the assigned preliminary ratings.
"At closing, we expect the transaction's documented counterparty
replacement and remedy mechanisms to adequately mitigate its
exposure to counterparty risk under our current counterparty
criteria.
"We expect the transaction's legal structure and framework to be
bankruptcy remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our preliminary ratings
are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the
class A to F notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes based on four
hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category--and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met--we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being related
to certain activities. Accordingly, since the exclusion of assets
from these industries does not result in material differences
between the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no
specific adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to
account for any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
OCP Euro CLO 2026-15 DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization
of a revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured
loans and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade borrowers. Onex
Credit Partners, LLC will manage the transaction and Onex Credit
Partners Europe LLP. will act as the sub-manager.
Preliminary ratings
Prelim
Prelim amount Credit Indicative
Class rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
A AAA (sf) 279.00 38.00 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 1.20%
B-1 AA (sf) 42.75 27.00 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 1.60%
B-2 AA (sf) 6.75 27.00 4.47%
C A (sf) 27.00 21.00 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 2.05%
D BBB- (sf) 32.625 13.75 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 3.00%
E BB- (sf) 19.125 9.50 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 4.55%
F B- (sf) 13.50 6.50 3/6-month EURIBOR plus 7.87%
Sub. NR 38.45 N/A N/A
*S&P's preliminary ratings on the class A, B-1, and B-2 notes
address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. Its
preliminary ratings on the class C, D, E, and F notes address
ultimate interest and principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
Sub.--Subordinated notes.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
RENO DE MEDICI: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'C'
-------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Reno de Medici's S.p.A. (RDM)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior secured debt
rating to 'C' from 'B-'. The Recovery Rating was revised to 'RR5'
from 'RR4'.
The downgrade reflects RDM's missed interest payment on its EUR600
million senior secured notes that was due on 16 March 2026. The
group has entered into a grace period in relation to the missed
interest payment and separately agreed a forbearance period with
most creditors, which will last until the earlier of the completion
of a restructuring or 15 June 2026.
Fitch will consider failure to pay the interest within the original
30-day grace period as an event of default and likely downgrade the
IDR to 'Restricted Default' (RD). Fitch will likely view debt
restructuring as a distressed debt exchange (DDE) also leading to a
downgrade to 'RD' before re-rating RDM, reflecting an amended
capital structure and business plan.
Key Rating Drivers
Coupon Payment Deferral: RDM has opted not to make a scheduled 16
March interest payment on its EUR600 million senior secured notes
due in 2029 in an effort to enhance liquidity as it engages with
financial stakeholders to restructure its balance sheet. The group
has also entered into a forbearance agreement with a group of
bondholders representing in excess of 70% of the outstanding notes
who agreed not to take any action in respect of the non-payment of
the coupon until 15 June 2026. These conditions are consistent with
a 'Near Default' classification and a 'C' IDR, in line with Fitch's
rating definitions.
Imminent Restricted Default: The ongoing discussions with its
lenders to restructure RDM's debt might result in a proportion of
the debt being exchanged for equity in the business. Fitch expects
this proposed debt restructuring to be implemented to avoid
insolvency and would result in a material reduction in terms for
creditors, which Fitch would view as a DDE under Fitch's Corporate
Rating Criteria.
Balance-Sheet Restructuring: Fitch views balance-sheet
restructuring as likely due to RDM's limited liquidity, fully drawn
EUR141.6 million revolving credit facility (RCF) and EUR50 million
bridge loan, plus factoring use close to its EUR50 million limit.
Short-term maturities include the EUR50 million bridge loan
maturing by September 2026, which has been secured on the proceeds
from the Barcelona plant disposals expected by end-June 2026. Fitch
believes RDM's restructuring might require various solutions
affecting debt holders including a debt-to-equity exchange, given
its materially constrained EBITDA generation and negative free cash
flow (FCF) over 2026-2028.
Materially Constrained EBITDA: Fitch estimates RDM's EBITDA
remained materially below previous projections in 2025, due to
delayed volumes recovery, weak pricing and increased energy and
recycled paper prices over the past 12 months. Fitch forecasts that
EBITDA will increase to EUR52 million in 2026, supported by a
cost-cutting initiative implemented over 2025 and slightly improved
capacity utilisation following the closure of its Barcelona plant.
Nevertheless, EBITDA generation in 2026-2027 will be significantly
below previous expectations, leading to negative FCF and
unsustainable leverage with the current capital structure.
Peer Analysis
RDM is small in scale compared with other Fitch-rated packaging
peers, such as Sappi Limited (BB/Stable), CANPACK Group, Inc.
(BB/Stable) and Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (B/Stable). RDM's
business profile is weaker than its peers', due to its limited
geographical diversification.
RDM's forecast EBITDA margin of 5%-9% remains lower than Ardagh's
11%-12% and materially below Nordic Paper Holding AB's
(B+/Positive) 17%-19%. This is due to its concentrated presence in
the European packaging market, while the others have a presence in
America and Asia. RDM's negative FCF margins in 2025-2028 are
materially weaker than Ardagh Metal's negative 1%-2% or Sappi's
negative 1%-3%.
RDM's financial profile in 2025-2028 is materially weaker than all
other Fitch-rated packaging peers'. Fitch estimates RDM's gross
leverage at 22.7x at end-2025, 15.9x at end-2026 and 12.7x at
end-2027, which will be materially weaker than Ardagh Metal's 6.0x
, Sappi's 3.2x or Nordic Paper's 3.0x at end-2027.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
Revenue to rise in 2026-2028 due to increase in demand, after a 5%
decline in 2025
EBITDA margin to stay around 6% in 2026 and to trend towards 9% in
2028 due to volume recovery and cost- cutting initiatives, after a
decline to 5% in 2025
Bridge loan to be repaid in 2026 using the Barcelona plant disposal
proceeds
Working capital outflows across 2026-2028 due to an increase in
factoring use and rise in revenue
Capex to normalise at 3.3%-4% of sales from 2026, versus 6.3% in
2024, due to completed capex on the Blendecques mill
No dividends or M&As to end-2028
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (b+, Lower), Sector Characteristics (bb,
Lower), Market and Competitive Positioning (b+, Moderate),
Diversification and Asset Quality (b, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (b, Moderate), Profitability (ccc,
Moderate), Financial Structure (ccc-, Higher), and Financial
Flexibility (ccc-, Higher).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical
year 2024, 40% for the forecast year 2025 and 40% for the forecast
year 2026.
- B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in an
adjustment of -1 notch.
- The Governance assessment of 'Some Deficiencies' results in no
adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'a' results in no
adjustment.
- The other risk elements adjustment applies and results in an
adjustment of -2 notches.
- The SCP is 'c'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that RDM would be reorganised as a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
RDM's super senior RCF is fully drawn after restructuring and ranks
ahead of senior secured debt. Fitch also considers the EUR50
million obridge loan as super senior as this is an asset-backed
lending facility, which will be repaid with the sale proceeds of
the Barcelona plant. Factoring facilities backed by receivables
also rank super senior.
Fitch's GC EBITDA estimate is EUR80 million, versus previous
estimate of EUR90 million, reflecting the sustainable,
post-reorganisation EBITDA on which Fitch bases the valuation of
the company.
An enterprise value multiple of 5.0x is applied to GC EBITDA to
calculate a post-reorganisation valuation. It reflects RDM's
long-term relationship with clients, well-invested production
assets, and a 60%-70% exposure to resilient markets. This is in
line with other packaging peers, like Ardagh.
Its debt structure comprises an increased EUR141.6 million (as of
December 2025) super senior RCF (assumed fully drawn), EUR600
million senior secured notes, EUR50 million bridge loan, EUR44
million factoring (outstanding value as of December 2025), and
EUR43 million of other debt.
Its waterfall analysis based on the above generates a ranked
recovery for the senior secured notes noteholders in the 'RR5'
category, leading to a 'C' rating for the EUR600 million notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- The IDR would be downgraded to 'RD' after the expiry of the
original grace period, which is 30 days from the missed coupon
payment, or completion of a debt restructuring viewed as a DDE,
before being subsequently re-rated under an amended capital
structure.
- The IDR could be downgraded to 'D' in the absence of an agreement
with lenders and bondholders, materially eroding liquidity leading
to bankruptcy filings or other formal insolvency procedures.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- An upgrade is unlikely given the announced debt restructuring
negotiations that might include a debt exchange.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Fitch expects RDM's liquidity for 2026 to consist of about EUR80
million cash (with the EUR141.6 million RCF fully drawn). This also
includes EUR50 million bridge loan arranged/drawn in November 2025,
which will be used to fund the negative FCF of 2026. Fitch expects
the Barcelona plant disposal proceeds of about EUR66 million to be
available in 3Q26 and be used to repay the EUR50 million bridge
loan.
Fitch expects RDM's financial flexibility to deteriorate, with
negative FCF of EUR68 million in 2026 and EUR41 million in 2027.
The company had no major repayment obligations other than the
EUR43.7 million factoring and EUR44 million other short-term loans
at end-2025; however, its EUR50 million bridge loan will have to be
repaid in 2H26 using the Barcelona plant sale proceeds. RDM's debt
structure remains dominated by its EUR600 million senior secured
notes due in April 2029.
Issuer Profile
RDM, founded in 1967 and headquartered in Milan, is a leading
European producer and distributor of recycled paper boards mainly
for the packaging industry.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for RDM.
ESG Considerations
RDM has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Exposure to Social
Impacts due to the consumer preference shift from plastic to paper
and cardboard packaging, which has a positive impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other
factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Reno de Medici S.p.A. LT IDR C Downgrade B-
senior secured LT C Downgrade RR5 B-
=============
R O M A N I A
=============
PUBLIC POWER: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Public Power Corporation S.A.'s (PPC)
Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB‑' with a Stable
Outlook, and its senior unsecured ratings at 'BB‑' with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. PPC's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP)
remains at 'bb-'.
The IDR reflects PPC's transition towards a more balanced,
integrated model, supported by the accelerated build‑out of
renewables and flexible generation in Greece and southeast Europe,
a planned full lignite phase-out by end‑2026 and rising regulated
cash flow from electricity distribution. These are partly offset by
an ambitious capex plan, which Fitch expects will keep free cash
flow (FCF) materially negative through 2028, alongside gradually
higher shareholder distributions.
The Stable Outlook reflects management's commitment to maintain its
leverage up to 3.5x EBITDA net leverage, adequate liquidity
headroom, good visibility on funding and the expected unwinding of
state‑related working‑capital receivables, despite low leverage
headroom in its forecasts versus Fitch's negative sensitivities
through 2028.
Key Rating Drivers
Strengthening Integrated Model: PPC's credit profile increasingly
reflects a more resilient integrated model, combining generation,
supply, customer solutions and regulated networks across southeast
Europe. Full lignite phase-out, a structurally long retail position
and rising self-supplied renewables support EBITDA growth and
margin stability. Expanding flexible capacity mitigates energy
price volatility, while growing regulatory asset base (RAB)-based
cash flow from networks enhances earnings visibility and
predictability.
Capex-Driven Leverage Pressure: PPC's EUR10.1 billion gross capex
programme for 2026-2028 results in negative FCF of about EUR1.1
billion a year through 2028. Fitch expects cash generation to
improve after lignite shutdown in 2026 and commissioning of major
projects from 2028. PPC has increased dividends, supported by
improving earnings visibility through 2028. Share buybacks remain a
flexible option if valuations are unattractive, provided they are
consistent with PPC's stated financial policy.
Fitch forecasts funds from operations (FFO) net leverage to average
about 5.3x in 2025-2028, slightly below its 5.5x negative
sensitivity and close to the financial target of 3.5x
company-defined net debt/adjusted EBITDA (not including trade
receivables securitisations and the HEDNO put option for
Macquarie). Management's willingness to deploy mitigating measures,
including capex phasing, supports the Stable Outlook under Fitch's
rating case.
Execution and Policy Sensitivity: The rating remains sensitive to
execution risk on the renewables and flexible generation build-out,
timely lignite decommissioning and unwinding of working-capital
absorption from state receivables. Positive rating momentum could
develop over the next one-to-two years if operational delivery of
the strategy remains strong, policy frameworks in Greece and
Romania are supportive, while maintaining financial discipline.
Renewables Scaling Up Rapidly: Wind and solar capacity is PPC's key
growth driver, with capacity targeted at 9.5GW by 2028, up from
about 4GW at end-2025, backed by strong power prices in the region.
About 80% of capacity is operating, secured or under construction,
limiting development and permitting risks. A large 20GW pipeline
provides flexibility. Fitch expects renewables to contribute about
25% of EBITDA by 2028, up from about 5% in 2023.
Flexible Capacity Strengthens Earnings: Flexible generation is
central to PPC's strategy to mitigate structural price volatility,
curtailment risk and tightening capacity balances in the region.
Key projects include the Alexandroupoli CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas
Turbine), conversion of lignite-fired Ptolemaida V to gas, new
peaking capacity in Romania, alongside the retirement of ageing,
inefficient gas plants. Storage development of about 1.5GW and
0.7GW of pumped hydro projects by 2028 enhances system flexibility
and supports earnings from balancing services.
Resilient Networks Earnings: PPC's electricity distribution in
Greece and Romania benefits from stable multi-year RAB-based
regulatory frameworks with allowed returns of about 7%. Greece's
framework provides visibility through 2028, while Romania operates
under a five-year regulatory period to 2029. Fitch forecasts PPC's
network EBITDA to rise to about EUR1 billion by 2028 (from EUR0.8
billion in 2025), although its share of group EBITDA will decline
to 34% in Fitch's forecasts (39% in 2025) as renewables grow
faster.
Supportive Regional Fundamentals: Operations in southeast Europe
benefit from favourable trends, including structurally rising power
demand and supportive regional pricing (tight capacity, limited
interconnections), providing a constructive backdrop for PPC's
expansion strategy despite near-term geopolitical uncertainty
linked to the Iran conflict. Oil-fired generation in the
non-connected islands is a regulated activity with fuel costs
treated as pass-through. PPC's continued progress in capacity
additions and gradually maturing regulatory frameworks underpin
Fitch's confidence in PPC delivering its strategic targets through
2030.
Romanian Policy-Driven Liquidity Risk: Delayed state compensation
under Romania's retail price-cap scheme created working-capital
pressure for suppliers in 2024-2025. Reimbursements lagged
deliveries by nine to 12 months, resulting in a high stock of
government-related entities' (GREs) receivables and increasing
short-term funding needs. PPC disclosed over EUR350 million of
state-related receivables in 1H25. Management expects almost full
recovery following scheme abolition in July 2025 and court-mandated
payments, although timing remains subject to government payment
discipline. Fitch has therefore assumed conservative cash-in
assumptions.
Adjacency Growth Remains Optional: Potential expansion into
telecoms, digitalisation and data centres remains optional and
outside Fitch's rating case. Management has stated that any
large-scale investment would require third-party financing and must
remain neutral to the rating. These initiatives do not currently
affect PPC's credit profile.
Standalone Approach: Fitch assesses the precedent of support as
'Strong', due to PPC's legacy stock of state-guaranteed debt,
although this is set to materially decrease. Fitch also views
contagion risk as 'Strong', due to large supranational funding and
Greek banks' exposure to PPC. However, Fitch assesses
decision-making and oversight, and the preservation of public role
as 'Not Strong Enough', given the state's 35.3% ownership with no
enhanced governing or voting rights, The overall assessment leads
to a standalone rating approach, with a 'bb-' SCP.
Peer Analysis
Domestic peer Metlen Energy & Metals Single Member S.A.
(BB+/Stable) is smaller than PPC in market share and scale. Metlen
operates in metallurgy, construction and power sectors, with power
generation and supply expected to contribute about one third of
EBITDA by 2027. Metlen has more efficient gas-fired plants and no
lignite exposure. Its two-notches higher rating reflects lower
forecast EBITDA net leverage of 3.2x (2025-2027) versus PPC's,
which is about 4.7x.
PPC's international peers include Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD
(BEH; BB+/Stable; SCP: bb) and Societatea Energetica Electrica S.A.
(BBB-/Stable). BEH's business profile is worse than PPC's, in its
view. However, Fitch estimates BEH's FFO net leverage to average
3.4x in 2025-2028, lower than PPC's about 5.3x for the same period,
resulting in a stronger SCP due to a better financial profile. BEH
benefits from sovereign support from Bulgaria (BBB+/Stable).
Romanian network Electrica has a higher regulated EBITDA mix (80%
networks versus PPC's about 34%) and lower leverage, averaging
about 3.0x for 2025-2027. However, Romania's regulatory environment
is less predictable, exposing Electrica's cash flow to regulatory
risks and subsidy receivables. No notching is applied to
Electrica's or PPC's ratings for support from the state.
PPC's integrated structure and strong domestic market position
align it with central European peers like PGE Polska Grupa
Energetyczna S.A. and ENEA S.A. (both BBB/Stable). These peers
share pollution challenges from coal but benefit from more stable
regulatory environments and lower leverage, underlining their
higher ratings than PPC's.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- EBITDA CAGR of about 11% over 2025-2028, driven by the phasing
out of loss-making lignite, higher integrated margins, renewables
ramp-up, and expanding regulated networks
- Liberalised electricity supply of about 32TWh and production of
about 24TWh by end-2028 in Greece and Romania, implying improved
balance between generation and supply
- Average baseload day-ahead prices of about EUR95/MWh in Greece
and EUR93/MWh in Romania over 2026-2028, down from about EUR106/MWh
in 2025
- Average unitary electricity selling price in Greece of about
EUR160/MWh over 2026-2028 (2024: EUR153/MWh)
- Integrated margins averaging about EUR29/MWh over 2026-2028,
improving from about EUR20/MWh in 2025, driven by increasing
portion of own renewable production, lowering in-sourcing costs
- Complete lignite phase-out by end-2026, including Ptolemaida V,
with commissioning of an 840MW CCGT in Alexandroupolis and 295MW
OCGT conversion, offset by the closure of 1,045MW of legacy CCGTs
- Renewables capacity (excluding hydro) rising to about 9.5GW by
end-2028 from about 4GW at end-2025, mainly supplying PPC's retail
activities
- RAB increasing to about EUR5 billion in Greece by end-2028, and
broadly flat in Romania at about EUR1.5 billion
- Working-capital unwinding of about EUR0.9 billion for 2026-2028,
mainly related to GREs' receivables in Greece and Romania
- Cumulative net capex of about EUR8.4 billion over 2026-2028,
after customer grants
- Dividends per share rising to EUR1.2 by 2028 (2025: EUR0.6), with
no share buybacks
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the SCP:
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bbb-, Lower), Sector Characteristics (bb,
Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bb+, Moderate),
Diversification and Asset Quality (bb, Higher), Company Operational
Characteristics (bbb, Moderate), Profitability (b+, Higher),
Financial Structure (bb+, Moderate), and Financial Flexibility
(bb+, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 25% weight for the forecast year 2025,
25% for the forecast year 2026, 25% for the forecast year 2027 and
25% for the forecast year 2028.
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'bbb-' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'bb-'.
To derive the IDR:
- Application of Fitch's GRE Rating Criteria results in a(n)
standalone approach.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could Collectively or Individually Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- FFO net leverage consistently exceeding 5.5x due to a more
aggressive-than-expected financial policy
- FFO interest coverage lower than 2.5x
- Slower-than-expected execution of the business plan to 2028,
including lower renewables or additional delays in lignite
phase-out and/or a worsened operating environment in Greece and
Romania, including failure to improve customer trade and state
receivables collections
- Failure to keep prior-ranking debt at about 2.5x consolidated
EBITDA, which could lead to a one-notch downgrade of the senior
unsecured rating
Factors that Could Collectively or Individually Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- FFO net leverage below 4.5x on a sustained basis
- FFO interest coverage higher than 3.5x
- Increasing visibility on the completion of the 2026-2028 business
plan, including full lignite phase-out, and renewables and flexible
assets expansion as planned, which could lead us to relax rating
sensitivities
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-September 2025, PPC had EUR1.4 billion of Fitch's readily
available cash and cash equivalents. It also had a combined EUR3
billion of unused revolver plus working-capital and capex
facilities. This is sufficient to cover debt maturities of EUR0.8
billion and negative FCF of about EUR2 billion for the 15 months to
end-2026. Fitch estimates PPC at end-2025 had a cash balance of
about EUR2 billion and unused credit lines of EUR3.9 billion with
maturities beyond 2025.
Business plan execution to 2028 will require additional external
debt financing for about EUR3 billion, which Fitch expects to be
largely funded with EUR2 billion of debt facilities, including
recovery and resilience facilities and EUR0.8 billion
project-financing already committed. Management has explicitly
ruled out equity issue over the business plan horizon.
Fitch believes PPC will prioritise holding company funding over
subsidiary debt and monitor structural subordination (through
downstreamed intercompany loans and upstreamed guarantees from
operating companies to the holding company). Fitch estimates
prior-ranking debt at close to 2.5x consolidated EBITDA at end-2025
with limited headroom under Fitch's criteria guidance.
Issuer Profile
PPC is the incumbent integrated utility in Greece and one of the
largest in Romania. Its generation portfolio consists of lignite,
gas-fired, oil-fired and hydro power plants, and a growing base of
wind and solar plants.
Summary of Financial Adjustments
The EUR1.5 billion fair value of the put option for the 49% stake
sale of HEDNO is treated as financial debt.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for PPC.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Public Power
Corporation S.A. LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
senior unsecured LT BB- Affirmed RR4 BB-
===========
R U S S I A
===========
KAPITAL SUGURTA: Fitch Affirms & Withdraws 'CCC' IFS Rating
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Uzbekistan-based Kapital Sugurta JSC's
Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating at 'CCC' and simultaneously
withdrawn the rating.
Fitch has withdrawn the rating due to commercial reasons. Fitch
will therefore no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage.
Key Rating Drivers
Weak Credit Fundamentals: Kapital Sugurta's 'CCC' IFS Rating
reflects its weak business profile, driven by high business risk,
significant concentration in financial risk insurance, uncertainty
over the insurer's strategy, and high management turnover. The
rating also reflects Kapital Sugurta's very limited capital buffer
above regulatory requirements, deteriorating financial performance,
high investment and reserving risks, and increased financial
leverage following debt-financed investments. Fitch assumes the
company will continue to service its insurance and financial
obligations in full and on time, with no payment interruption.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Not applicable as the rating has been withdrawn.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Not applicable as the rating has been withdrawn.
ESG Considerations
Kapital Sugurta has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Management
Strategy and Governance Structure due to elevated turnover in top
management of the insurer and the company's limited ability to
diversify away from high-risk financial risk insurance, which the
company aims to reduce strategically.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Kapital Sugurta JSC LT IFS CCC Affirmed CCC
LT IFS WD Withdrawn
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
BLACKPOLE RECYCLING: KR8 Appointed as Joint Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------
Blackpole Recycling Limited was placed into administration in the
High Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number
CR-2026-001275, and Mark Blackman (IP No. 29630) and Michael Lennon
(IP No. 24650) of KR8 were appointed as Joint Administrators on
March 5, 2026.
Blackpole Recycling engages in the treatment and disposal of
non-hazardous waste and recovery of sorted materials.
The company's registered office is at Thorneloe House, 25 Barbourne
Road, Worcester, Worcestershire, WR1 1RU.
Its principal trading address is Unit 100, Blackpole Trading Estate
West, Worcester, WR3 8TJ.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Mark Blackman (IP No. 29630)
Michael Lennon (IP No. 24650)
KR8
The Lexicon, 10-12 Mount Street
Manchester, M2 5NT
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Email: blackpole@kr8.co.uk
CRONUS FINANCE: Alvarez & Marsal Appointed as Joint Administrators
------------------------------------------------------------------
Cronus Finance Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts, Insolvency and
Companies List (ChD), No CR-2026-001573, and Adam Paxton (IP No.
27630), Carl Bowles (IP No. 9709) and Robert Croxen (IP No. 9700)
of Alvarez & Marsal Europe LLP were appointed as Joint
Administrators on March 3, 2026.
Cronus Finance engages in financial intermediation not elsewhere
classified.
The company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Level 5, 20 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 3BY.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Adam Paxton (IP No. 27630)
Carl Bowles (IP No. 9709)
Robert Croxen (IP No. 9700)
Alvarez & Marsal Europe LLP
Suite 3, Avery House
69 North Street
Brighton, BN41 1DH
Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7715 5200
For further details, contact:
Ruth Turner
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7715 5223
Email: INS_CRONFL@alvarezandmarsal.com
DRAX GROUP: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Drax Group Holdings Limited's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook and Drax
Finco Plc's senior secured notes at 'BBB-' with a Recovery Rating
of 'RR2'.
The affirmation reflects Drax's diversification into open-cycle gas
turbines (OCGTs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), which
together with biomass support the UK energy transition. It also
reflects strong operational performance and comfortable leverage,
in line with the company's 2.0x net debt/EBITDA target.
Fitch expects short-term earnings visibility to continue after the
four-year contracts for difference (CfD) bridging mechanism for
biomass plants is introduced in FY27 (financial year end-December).
However, contracted earnings will decline due to expectations of
lower incentivised output. Uncertainty over the future of biomass
also affects long-term visibility, but Drax's potential for
long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with data centres could
mitigate this risk.
Key Rating Drivers
Business Mix Shifting Gradually: Fitch expects gradually improved
visibility on Drax's business mix as its investment programme is
implemented. The company targets up to GBP2 billion of capex over
FY25-FY31 (its forecasts assume around GBP1.5 billion in FY26-FY29)
with earnings benefits typically lagging by about a year,
reflecting an acquisition-led strategy. As the business mix
evolves, Fitch may refine its view of Drax's debt capacity.
Under its segmental approach, quasi-regulated/contracted EBITDA
supports higher debt capacity than merchant and supply-flex
generation. Merchant exposure is set to materially rise when the
biomass CfD bridging mechanism expires in March 2031, barring an
extension to subsidies.
Diversification Mitigates Policy Risk: Fitch assumes rising UK
renewables by 2030 will increase the value of dispatchable and
flexible capacity (including OCGTs and BESS), supporting the
company's diversification strategy. Drax's grid connections and
Flexitricity platform add optionality (asset optimisation and
third-party battery trading). Longer-term visibility remains
constrained by uncertainty over post-2031 biomass support and
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) policy.
Mitigation could include CfD extension or long-term PPAs with data
centres.
Fitch expects Drax to continue diversifying its biomass-focused
generation asset base, which includes 2.6GW of biomass and 0.6GW of
pumped storage and hydro and supplies about 5% of UK power
generation. Drax plans further investment in OCGTs and BESS, which
will strengthen its role in supporting the UK's energy system as
renewable capacity rises.
Bridging Mechanism Visibility: Drax's earnings visibility will
continue as its biomass units move to the CfD bridging mechanism in
March 2027 at an inflation-linked strike price of GBP113/MWh (2012
prices) until March 2031. However, its merchant exposure will rise
together with hydro, OCGT and BESS earnings, as the CfD bridging
mechanism will only cover up to 6TWh, less than half the 13TWh of
output in FY22-FY25.
Substantial Investment Plan: Drax's investment plan includes 0.9GWs
of capacity market-backed OCGT units, a 40MW extension to its
pumped storage and hydro assets, and 0.7GW in BESS. The latter
includes Drax's GBP157 million acquisition of a 260MW BESS project
from Apatura Limited, with the first site expected to be
operational in 2027, and tolling agreements for 450MW with Zenobe
Coalburn Limited and Fidra Energy, expected to begin operations in
2028. Drax has also agreed to acquire Flexitricity in 2026, a
UK-based optimiser of over 900MW of flexible energy assets, valued
at GBP36 million.
Comfortable Leverage Headroom: Fitch projects Drax's funds from
operations (FFO) net leverage to peak at 2.6x in 2028, mainly
reflecting reduced biomass generation output as earnings from
Drax's biomass units are affected by the first full year of the CfD
bridging mechanism. Drax's average FFO net leverage of 2.1x remains
well below the 3.2x negative sensitivity.
Weaker Cash Generation Forecast: Fitch forecasts FFO to average
around GBP450 million in FY26-FY29 (GBP600 million of EBITDA for
the same period). This primarily reflects lower electricity prices,
reduced generation output due to the 6TWh annual cap under the CfD
bridging mechanism and the closure of a Canadian pellet plant amid
a constrained fibre market.
Biomass Uncertainty: Fitch views the future of biomass in the UK
energy system as uncertain. The UK government recognises biomass
generation as an important low-carbon source, but the CfD bridging
mechanism imposes tighter sustainability requirements. The
government also recognises the potential role of BECCS in UK
decarbonisation. However, high costs, early-stage technology and
limited long-term policy support reduce visibility of Drax's
longer-term business profile.
Potential for Data Centre PPAs: Drax aims to establish long-term
PPAs for behind-the-meter connections, targeting large-scale data
centres. It can host a 100MW data centre from 2027, with potential
expansion to 1.2GW, benefiting from its ownership of 2.6GW of
active generation capacity at Drax Power Station. This model offers
data centres significant network charge savings and access to
low-carbon energy. Drax would sell or lease the land and provide
renewable energy to the data centre, not own the centre itself. The
site's existing, available grid connections could also be valuable,
enabling faster connection in a market constrained by limited grid
capacity.
Peer Analysis
Drax has substantially stronger credit metrics than SSE plc
(BBB+/Stable), which has average FFO net leverage projected to
reach 5.0x by FY30. This is largely offset by SSE's stronger and
improving earnings visibility, and higher debt capacity, which
reflects its more robust business profile due its large size and
focus on UK regulated transmission and distribution networks
together with other developed and high-quality markets.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- CfD bridging mechanism operating from April 2027 at GBP113/MWh
(2012 prices) capped at 6TWh biomass generation output
- Annual average capex of GBP365 million
- EBITDA includes full OCGT production from the end of 2026 and
BESS acquisitions and tolling agreements
- Stable yearly EBITDA of around GBP130 million from pellet
production capacity partially supported by medium-term contracts
- Capacity market and ancillary services EBITDA in line with
management's guidance
- Working capital, dividend payout and share buybacks in line with
management projections
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bb+, Lower), Sector Characteristics (bbb,
Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bb, Moderate),
Diversification and Asset Quality (bb, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (bb, Higher), Profitability (bbb,
Moderate), Financial Structure (bbb+, Moderate), and Financial
Flexibility (bb+, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 25% weight for the forecast year 2026,
25% for the forecast year 2027, 25% for the forecast year 2028 and
25% for the forecast year 2029.
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'aa-' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'bb+'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Collectively or Individually, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Higher-than-expected share of merchant and non-contracted EBITDA
- FFO net leverage above 3.2x, for example, due to a major
debt-funded acquisition
- A change to the regulatory framework with a material negative
impact on profitability and cash flow
Factors that Could, Collectively or Individually, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Increased share of contracted or quasi-regulated EBITDA, along
with tangible progress towards achieving long-term visibility in
the group's business mix and earnings profile
- A more conservative financial policy leading to FFO net leverage
sustained below 2.2x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, Drax had cash and cash equivalents of GBP302 million
with access to a revolving credit facility with an undrawn
committed amount of GBP450 million (maturing 2028 with a one-year
extension option). In January 2026, Drax issued a new GBP190
million term loan. It faces rolling maturities of infrastructure
and term loan facilities of about GBP150 million a year on average
from FY26 to FY29. The next significant bond maturity is the EUR350
million bond due in April 2029.
Fitch expects Drax to be able to cover its debt obligations and
negative free cash flow for the next 12 months.
Issuer Profile
Drax operates an integrated value chain across wood pellet
production in North America, electricity generation and energy
supply to business customers in the UK.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Drax Group Holdings Limited.
ESG Considerations
Drax Group Holdings Limited has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Energy Management due to the supply risk for its large biomass
generation business and the long and complex environmental impact
of the biomass supply chain, which has a negative impact on the
credit profile, and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with
other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Drax Finco Plc
senior secured LT BBB- Affirmed RR2 BBB-
Drax Group Holdings
Limited LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
senior secured LT BBB- Affirmed RR2 BBB-
EVENT WIFI: Ballard Business Appointed as Administrator
-------------------------------------------------------
Event WiFi Limited was placed into administration in the High Court
of Justice, Court Number CR-2026-000403, and Philip Ballard (IP No.
20452) of Ballard Business Recovery Limited was appointed as
Administrator on March 6, 2026.
Event WiFi offers WiFi services for events.
The company's registered office is at 28A Charter House, Sandford
Street, Lichfield, Staffordshire, WS13 6QA.
The principal trading address is at Unit 7 Highfield Business Park,
Deerhurst, Gloucestershire, GL19 4BP.
The Administrator can be reached at:
Philip Ballard (IP No. 20452)
Ballard Business Recovery Limited
28A Charter House
Sandford Street
Lichfield, Staffordshire, WS13 6QA
For further details, contact:
Administrator
Tel: 01543 399 520
Email: office@ballardbusinessrecovery.co.uk
Alternative contact name: Byron Murtagh
FEEL ELECTRIC: BTG Begbies Appointed as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Feel Electric Ltd was placed into administration in the High Court
of Justice, Business and Property Courts in Leeds, Insolvency &
Companies List (ChD), Court Number CR-2026-LDS-000184, and Julian N
R Pitts (IP No. 007851) and Louise Longley (IP No. 23874) of BTG
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP were appointed as administrators on
March 3, 2026.
Feel Electric engages in business and domestic software
development.
The company's registered office is at 77 Street Lane, Leeds, West
Yorkshire, LS8 1BN.
The Administrators can be reached at:
Julian N R Pitts (IP No. 007851)
Louise Longley (IP No. 23874)
BTG Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Floor 2, 10 Wellington Place
Leeds, LS1 4AP
For further details, contact:
Grace Sellars
Tel: 0113 521 0887
Email: Grace.Sellars@btguk.com
HTA GROUP: S&P Assigns 'BB-' Rating to New Senior Unsecured Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB-' issue rating to the proposed
senior unsecured notes to be issued by HTA Group Ltd.
(BB-/Stable/--).
S&P said, "We consider HTA Group a core subsidiary of telecom
services group Helios Towers (BB-/Stable/--), reflecting its role
as a financing vehicle for the group's operations. The group's
existing convertible bond, revolving credit facility, and term loan
facilities rank at the same seniority as the proposed notes. We
equalize the rating on the proposed notes with our 'BB-' long-term
foreign currency issuer credit rating on HTA Group and Helios
Towers PLC, based on the current amount of secured and priority
debt issued by operating entities being below 50%, our threshold
for lowering the issue rating. While we estimate the maximum
priority debt cap--as per the transaction documents--as below 50%,
any breach of this threshold would lead us to lower the issue
rating.
"The rating on the proposed notes is subject to our review of the
notes' final terms and conditions.
"The company will use cash proceeds from the notes to fully prepay
outstanding amounts under the term facilities and cover related
transaction fees and expenses. We therefore view the transaction as
broadly leverage neutral.
"We expect Helios Towers' strong market positions in structurally
growing markets to continue supporting tenancy growth and EBITDA
expansion. As a result, we anticipate the company will continue to
build headroom within the current rating. We project S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted funds from operations to debt will improve to
about 18% by 2028, while S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage will
decline to around 3.2x."
JANUS HENDERSON: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned a Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
of 'BB+' to Janus Henderson Group plc (JHG). The Rating Outlook is
Stable. Fitch has also assigned a Long-Term IDR of 'BB+' to Jupiter
Borrower, Inc (Jupiter), JHG's designated debt-issuing entity, and
an expected rating of 'BB+(EXP)' to Jupiter's proposed $2.0 billion
senior secured term loan. The coupon and final maturity will be
determined at the time of issuance.
The rating actions relate to the take-private transaction of JHG by
an investor group led by Trian Fund Management, L.P. (Trian) and
General Catalyst Group Management, LLC's (General Catalyst). As
part of the transaction, Jupiter was established as a merger
vehicle and will be the initial borrower of the proposed debt with
proceeds used to finance the acquisition and to refinance JHG's
existing debt. Jupiter's IDR is equalized with that of JHG, which
benefits from a full guarantee from JHG. Fitch expects to assign
the final debt rating following transaction close and receipt of
final documents.
Key Rating Drivers
Diversified Platform; Strong Investment Performance: JHG's ratings
reflect its long-tenured franchise as a traditional investment
manager (IM), substantial geographic and product diversification,
solid long-term investment performance across multiple asset
classes, experienced management, and cash-generative business
model.
Leverage to Increase: Rating constraints include JHG's increased
cashflow leverage (measured as gross debt to adjusted fee-related
EBITDA [FEBITDA]) following the take-private transaction, weaker
pro forma interest coverage, and fully secured funding profile.
Constraints also include net asset value (NAV)-based fees, which
increase FEBITDA volatility, and the company's private equity
ownership, which introduces some uncertainty around financial
policies and strategic objectives.
Take Private Transaction: On Dec. 22, 2025, JHG entered into a
definitive take-private agreement with funds managed by Trian and
General Catalyst in an all-cash deal valued at $7.4 billion. As
part of the transaction, JHG's existing debt will be refinanced and
replaced with the proposed $2.0 billion term loan B, $600 million
of additional senior secured debt, a $500 million RCF, $1.0 billion
of preferred equity, and rollover common equity. The RCF will be
initially undrawn at transaction close.
Improving Scale: As of Dec. 31, 2025 (4Q25), JHG had $493 billion
in assets under management (AUM). While still modest in size
relative to larger peers in the space, AUM expanded at a 20% CAGR
from 2022 to 2025 through organic growth and M&A. JHG's AUM is
diversified geographically (65% North America, 26% EMEA and Latin
America, and 9% Asia-Pacific) and by client type (49% intermediary,
31% institutional and 20% self-directed), reflecting ongoing
efforts to broaden its platform. Fitch would view continued
execution against management's strategic initiatives to protect and
grow core businesses while expanding capabilities and distribution
favorably.
Net Client Flows Rebound: As of 4Q25, JHG experienced seven
consecutive quarters of positive to flat net client flows supported
by the expansion of its distribution network and launch of new
investment product offerings. Between 2022 and 2025, outflows
averaged 1.3% of beginning AUM (excluding $46.5 billion of inflows
from the Guardian Life partnership in 2Q25), aligning with Fitch's
'bbb' category benchmark for IMs with NAV-based fees. Fitch would
view consistent positive net client flows favorably.
Sound FEBITDA Margins: Fitch views JHG's profitability as sound.
The firm's adjusted FEBITDA margins averaged 30.6% between 2022 and
2025, which is at the low end of Fitch's 'a' category benchmark
range of 30%-50% for traditional IMs. Fitch expects JHG's
profitability to be supported by its recurring fee-based revenues
as the company expands its investment offerings and investor base,
albeit offset to some degree by increased costs as the firm
implements Aladdin and other technology to enhance operating
leverage long term. Fitch expects JHG's earnings will remain
sensitive to market performance and the firm's ability to maintain
net inflows.
Increase in Leverage: Pro forma for the new debt and equity
financing associated with the take private transaction, JHG's gross
cash flow leverage likely to increase from 0.5x as of 4Q25 to 3.7x,
which is within Fitch's 'bb' category benchmark range of 3.0x-5.0x
for traditional Ims charging NAV-based fees. When assessing
leverage, Fitch assigns JHG's $1.0 billion preferred shares 50%
equity credit, in accordance with Fitch's "Corporate Hybrids
Treatment and Notching Criteria," as the cumulative coupons can be
settled in cash rather than with equity conversion alone. While
Fitch views the leverage increase as a rating constraint, Fitch
expects JHG to deleverage gradually through incremental FEBITDA
growth over time. Failure to maintain leverage below 4.5x could
result in negative rating action.
Weaker Pro Forma Interest Coverage: Fitch expects pro forma
interest coverage (FEBITDA to interest expense) to decline to 5.2x,
down from 41.1x in 2025, which is within Fitch's 'bb' category
funding, liquidity and coverage benchmark range of 3.0x-6.0x for
traditional IMs. Failure to sustain interest coverage above 4.0x
could result in negative rating pressure.
Strong Liquidity: Fitch views the firm's liquidity as strong,
supported by the expectation of $450 million in cash at closing,
$500 million of revolver capacity in the proposed debt structure,
and its cash-generative operations. Post transaction close, the
firm will target maintaining at least $300 million in balance sheet
cash. The firm does not have any near-term refinancing risk, with
the next term debt maturity in 2033. However, JHG's secured term
loan has a 1% annual amortization requirement, which is
sufficiently covered by the firm's liquidity sources.
Stable Outlook: The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation
that JHG's strategic initiatives will be supportive of continued
solid operating performance, which should lead to gradual
deleveraging and interest coverage improvement. Fitch also expects
JHG to continue to execute its business and investment strategies
such that it leads to further product diversification and supports
greater consistency of customer net flows.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A sustained increase in cash flow leverage above 4.5x;
- Failure to sustain interest coverage above 4.0x or a notable
decline in available liquidity;
- Pursuit of aggressive financial policies, including substantial
shareholder distributions or dividend recapitalizations, that
prioritize shareholder returns over debt reduction;
- Sustained material investment underperformance, leading to
meaningful long-term AUM outflows or weakening of franchise
strength; and/or
- A material deviation in the investment or operational strategy
such that it leads to a more substantial balance sheet exposure or
funding risks.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- A sustained improvement in reported cash flow leverage below
3.0x;
- Sustained interest coverage above 6.0x;
- Favorable investment performance and sustained improvements of
net flows, in particular, long-term net client flows; and/or
- Sound execution against management's business plan and financial
targets, in particular pertaining to FEBITDA generation and AUM
growth.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The expected secured debt rating is equalized with JHG's Long-Term
IDR, reflecting the current funding mix and Fitch's expectations
for average recovery prospects under a stressed scenario.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The expected secured debt rating is primarily sensitive to changes
in JHG's Long-Term IDR and, secondarily, to material changes in
JHG's funding mix or changes in Fitch's assessment of the recovery
prospects for the debt instrument.
ADJUSTMENTS
The Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) has been assigned below the
implied SCP due to the following adjustment reason(s): Weakest Link
- Capitalization & Leverage (negative).
The Earnings & Profitability score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical
and future metrics (negative).
The Capitalization & Leverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical
and future metrics (negative).
The Funding, Liquidity & Coverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical
and future metrics (negative), funding flexibility (negative).
Date of Relevant Committee
19-Feb-2026
ESG Considerations
Janus Henderson Group plc has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Governance Structure due to private equity ownership, which may
result in more opportunistic growth strategies or
shareholder-friendly financial policies, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is highly relevant to the ratings
resulting in a lower Long-Term IDR.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Jupiter Borrower, Inc. LT IDR BB+ New Rating
senior secured LT BB+(EXP) Expected Rating
Janus Henderson Group plc LT IDR BB+ New Rating
LONDON BRIDGING: FRP Appointed as Joint Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
London Bridging Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Court Number CR-2026-000988, and Geoffrey Paul
Rowley (IP No. 8919) and David Hudson (IP No. 8977) of FRP Advisory
Trading Limited were appointed as Joint Administrators on March 2,
2026.
London Bridging engages in financial intermediation not elsewhere
classified.
The company's 2nd Floor, 314 Regents Park Road, Finchley, London,
England, N3 2JX in the process of being changed to C/O FRP Advisory
Trading Limited 2nd Floor, 110 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6EU.
Its principal trading address is 2nd Floor, 314 Regents Park Road,
Finchley, London, England, N3 2JX.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Geoffrey Paul Rowley (IP No. 8919)
David Hudson (IP No. 8977)
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
110 Cannon Street
London, EC4N 6EU
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 3005 4000
Email: cp.london@frpadvisory.com
Alternative contact: Megan Sanghera
LOWE RISER: JT Maxwell Appointed as Administrator
-------------------------------------------------
Lowe Riser Pod Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Business & Property Court, No. 000326 of 2026,
and Andrew Ryder (IP No. 17552) of JT Maxwell Limited was appointed
as Administrator on March 6, 2026.
Lowe Riser Pod engages in the manufacture of other special-purpose
machinery not elsewhere classified.
The company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Vantage House, Euxton Lane, Euxton, Chorley, PR7 6TB.
The Administrator can be reached at:
Andrew Ryder (IP No. 17552)
JT Maxwell Limited
Unit 1 Lagan House
1 Sackville Street
Lisburn, Co Antrim
BT27 4AB
For further details, contact:
JT Maxwell Limited
Tel: 02892 448 110
Email: corporate@jtmaxwell.co.uk
NOMAD FOODS: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nomad Foods Limited's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook and senior
secured rating at 'BB+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR2'.
The Stable Outlook captures its expectation that the group's EBITDA
will recover to above EUR440 million from 2027, following a decline
in 2026. Despite stretched leverage metrics in 2026, the
affirmation is anchored by the company's expected adherence to its
stated financial policy, including its committed leverage targets
and flexibility to adjust shareholder distributions in periods of
underperformance.
Nomad Foods' ratings reflect its leading position as western
Europe's largest frozen-food producer, resilient free cash flow
(FCF) and a reiterated financial policy to maintain EBITDA net
leverage below 3.5x.
Key Rating Drivers
Stretched Leverage: Fitch forecasts Fitch-adjusted EBITDA net
leverage to rise to 4.4x in 2026 (2025: 4.1x), above its negative
sensitivity of 4.0x. Stretched leverage headroom limits its
capacity to absorb further external shocks or larger-than-expected
shareholder distributions. However, Fitch expects net leverage to
fall towards 4.0x in 2027 and rating headroom to be restored from
2028, as EBITDA recovers and the group exercises discipline over
its shareholder distributions.
Disrupted 2026 Performance: Fitch forecasts Fitch-adjusted EBITDA
margin to decline to 14.2% in 2026 (2025: 15.3%), affected by
delayed price increases to offset cost inflation and potential
sales volumes reduction amid tough price negotiations with
retailers. The group has guided declines of up to 5% in revenue and
10% in EBITDA in 2026 -with 1H26 most affected - reflecting volumes
pressure from intense competition, including from private label,
and potential disruptions from operational restructuring.
Nevertheless, its EBITDA margin remains strong for its rating.
EBITDA Recovery From 2027: Fitch assumes that completion of the
price negotiations, optimisation of commercial activities, and
alignment of shipments to the trade with end-customer demand from
2H26, will help return revenue growth to the low single digits from
2027. This, together with the EUR200 million three-year savings
programme launched in 2025, will lead to EBITDA margin recovery to
15%-15.5%. This will still remain under the historical average of
16%, constrained by expected investments in promotion, marketing,
innovation, and merchandising, by using a large part of the
savings.
Financial Policy Adherence Anchors Ratings: The Stable Outlook is
supported by Nomad Foods' public commitment to its long-term net
debt/EBITDA target of 2.5x-3.5x, which corresponds to
Fitch-calculated EBITDA net leverage of below 4.0x. It also
reflects its expectations of no material debt-funded M&A in
2026-2028 and moderation in share buybacks following the completion
of its USD500 million share buyback programme in 2026. Continued
disciplined distributions to shareholders, without compromising the
group's financial policy, is vital to maintaining the rating.
Moderated but Strong FCF: Fitch expects Nomad Foods' FCF margins to
be about 3% over 2026-2028 (2025: 0.8%), despite weaker operating
profitability due to limited additional investment in working
capital, moderate capex at 2.6% of revenue and slight moderation in
interest costs following recent refinancing. Strong FCF, alongside
Nomad Foods' resilient market position and adequate scale, remain a
credit strength, which differentiates the group from lower-rated
packaged food peers.
Leading European Frozen Food Producer: Nomad Foods is the largest
branded frozen food producer in western Europe, with leading
positions across markets and categories. Its market share of 18% in
western Europe's savoury frozen food market is more than twice its
next competitor's. Nomad Foods' market position and annual EBITDA
close to USD500 million put it firmly in the 'BB' rating category.
Its focus on one packaged food category (frozen food) and mostly
mature markets in one geographic region, albeit with a wide
footprint across different countries, results in weaker business
diversification than investment-grade packaged food producers'.
Peer Analysis
Nomad Foods compares well with Conagra Brands, Inc (BBB-/Stable),
which is the second-largest branded frozen food producer globally
with operations mostly in the US. The two-notch rating differential
stems from the latter's larger scale and product diversification as
it also sells snacks, which account for about 20% of its revenue.
Further, its organic growth profile is stronger than Nomad Foods',
allowing it to better cope with cost inflation, in turn supporting
greater business resilience.
Nomad Foods is rated below Premier Foods plc (BB+/Stable), one of
the UK's largest food businesses, which also benefits from a strong
market position in its product categories. Nomad Foods is larger in
size and has wider geographic diversification of operations, but
the one-notch differential is mainly driven by Premier Foods'
higher EBITDA and FCF margin and significantly more conservative
leverage.
Nomad Foods' two-notch differential with Sammontana Italia S.p.A.
(B+/Stable) reflects the former's strength in branded and
private-label frozen food, a more diverse portfolio of categories
and geographies of operation, and larger overall scale, leading to
a stronger business profile. This, combined with higher cash
generation, justifies Nomad Foods' larger debt capacity. Nomad
Foods' rating also reflects its lower gross leverage of about
4.5x.
Nomad Foods is rated higher than the world's largest plant-based
spreads and margarine producer, Sigma Holdco BV (B/Stable), despite
its more limited geographical diversification and smaller business
scale. The rating differential is due to Nomad Foods' lower
leverage, proven ability to generate positive FCF and less
challenging demand fundamentals for frozen food than plant-based
spreads.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Organic revenue decline in 2026, followed by low single-digit
growth annually to 2029
- EBITDA margin to decline to 14.2% in 2026 (2025: 15.3%) driven by
cost inflation and a negative product mix, before gradually
recovering towards 15.3% in 2029
- Capex at 2.6% of revenue in 2026-2029
- Dividend payments at about EUR86 million in 2026, growing at
about 7% annually to EUR105 million in 2029
- Lower share buybacks at about EUR25 million in 2026 under the
USD500 million share buyback programme scheduled to end in 2026,
before gradually increasing to EUR50 million in 2027 and EUR100
million a year in 2028 and 2029
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bbb-, Lower), Sector Characteristics (bb+,
Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bb, Higher),
Diversification and Asset Quality (bb, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (bb+, Moderate), Profitability (bbb,
Moderate), Financial Structure (bb, Higher), and Financial
Flexibility (bb, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 20% for the forecast year 2026, 20% for the forecast year
2027, 20% for the forecast year 2028 and 20% for the forecast year
2029.
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'a+' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'bb'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Weakening organic sales growth, resulting in market share erosion
across key markets
- Shift in the financial policy leading to EBITDA net leverage
above 4.0x on a sustained basis
- A reduction in EBITDA margins or higher-than-expected exceptional
charges, leading to FCF margins below 2% on a sustained basis
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Strengthened business profile through increased business scale or
greater geographical and product diversification
- Continuation of organic growth in sales and EBITDA
- EBITDA net leverage below 3.5x on a sustained basis, supported by
a consistent financial policy
- Maintenance of strong FCF margins
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, Nomad Foods had sufficient liquidity, with EUR291
million cash and EUR165 million available under a revolving credit
facility of EUR175 million (of which EUR10 million is carved out as
a guarantee facility), which has now been extended. The next
material debt maturity is in 2028.
The one-notch uplift to the rating of the senior secured loans and
notes to 'BB+' reflects its view of above-average recovery
prospects. These are supported by moderate leverage partly offset
by the lack of material subordinated, or first-loss, debt tranche
in the capital structure. The senior credit facilities and notes
share the same collateral and therefore rank equally among
themselves.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The result of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Nomad Foods.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Nomad Foods Lux
S.a.r.l.
senior secured LT BB+ Affirmed RR2 BB+
Nomad Foods Limited LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Nomad Foods Europe
Midco Limited
senior secured LT BB+ Affirmed RR2 BB+
Nomad Foods US LLC
senior secured LT BB+ Affirmed RR2 BB+
Nomad Foods
BondCo Plc
senior secured LT BB+ Affirmed RR2 BB+
PEARL BRIDGING: BTG, Coots Appointed as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Pearl Bridging Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number
CR-2026-001419, and Stephen Katz (IP No. 8681) of BTG Begbies
Traynor (London) LLP and Nimish Patel (IP No. 8679) of Coots &
Boots were appointed as administrators on March 2, 2026.
Pearl Bridging engages in financial intermediation.
The company's registered office is at c/o BTG Begbies Traynor, 31st
Floor, 40 Bank Street, London, E14 5NR (Formerly: 2nd Floor, 314
Regents Park Road, Finchley, London, N3 2JX).
The principal trading address is at 46 Hertford Street, Mayfair,
London, W1J 7DP.
The administrators can be reached at:
Stephen Katz (IP No. 8681)
BTG Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
Nimish Patel (IP No. 8679)
Coots & Boots, 29 Farm Street,
London, W1J 5RL
For further details, contact:
Sophia Lodhi
BTG Begbies (London) LLP
Tel: 020 7516 1500
Email: GM-team@btguk.com
TILIA EQUITY: BTG, Coots Appointed as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
Tilia Equity Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number
CR-2026-001402, and Stephen Katz (IP No. 8681) of BTG Begbies
Traynor (London) LLP and Nimish Patel (IP No. 8679) of Coots &
Boots were appointed as administrators on March 2, 2026.
Tilia Equity engages in financial intermediation.
The company's registered office is at c/o BTG Begbies Traynor, 31st
Floor, 40 Bank Street, London, E14 5NR (Formerly: 2nd Floor, 314
Regents Park Road, Finchley, London, England, N3 2JX).
The principal trading address is at 2nd Floor, 314 Regents Park
Road, London, N3 2JX.
The Administrators can be reached at:
Stephen Katz (IP No. 8681)
BTG Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
Nimish Patel (IP No. 8679)
Coots & Boots
29 Farm Street, London, W1J 5RL
For further information, contact:
Sophia Lodhi
BTG Begbies (London) LLP
Tel: 020 7516 1500
Email: GM-team@btguk.com
VELOCITY 2026-1: Fitch Assigns 'Bsf' Final Rating to Class F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Velocity 2026-1 PLC final ratings, as
detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Velocity 2026-1 PLC
Class A XS3290559494 LT AAAsf New Rating AAA(EXP)sf
Class B XS3290559577 LT AA-sf New Rating AA-(EXP)sf
Class C XS3290559650 LT A-sf New Rating A-(EXP)sf
Class D XS3290559734 LT BBB-sf New Rating BBB-(EXP)sf
Class E XS3290559908 LT BB-sf New Rating BB-(EXP)sf
Class F XS3290560153 LT Bsf New Rating B(EXP)sf
Class G XS3290560237 LT NRsf New Rating
Class X XS3290560310 LT B-sf New Rating B-(EXP)sf
Transaction Summary
Velocity 2026-1 PLC is the first securitisation of equipment
finance receivables originated by Propel Finance Plc to SME
borrowers in the UK. The transaction does not have a revolving
period and amortises pro rata, subject to conditional triggers.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Heterogeneous Asset Pool: The portfolio comprises hire-purchase
contracts (60.7%) and finance leases (39.3%) granted to SMEs,
corporates, microenterprises and sole traders. The loans/leases
finance many asset types, including 'hard assets' such as heavy
goods vehicles, light commercial vehicles and cars, as well as
'soft assets' such as hosted telecoms and telecoms equipment.
Combined Asset Assumptions: Defaults for hard assets have generally
been lower than for soft assets. Fitch determined a default base
case of 4.5% for the total pool given that it is static. Fitch
applied a 'AAAsf' default multiple of 5.25x. This is at the median
to higher level of the range of stresses in its criteria. It
considers the length of the data history and tenor of the assets,
which in some cases exceeds the length of the data history.
Fitch used a recovery base case of 25% and applied a median 'AAAsf'
recovery haircut of 50%. The secured nature of hard asset
recoveries is a strength, but a significant proportion of the pool
consists of soft assets, which largely rely on unsecured
recoveries.
Static and Pro Rata Amortisation: The class A to F notes amortise
pro rata with one another until the breach of certain triggers,
which include performance triggers for principal deficiency ledger
and cumulative defaults. Fitch analysed the package of triggers in
its cash flow modelling and Fitch believes they are adequate to
mitigate the credit risk at the assigned ratings.
Limited Portfolio Concentration: Obligor concentrations are higher
than in a typical EMEA ABS pool due to the commercial nature of the
borrowers and the presence of some high value assets. However, the
pool is still sufficiently granular for Fitch's Consumer ABS Rating
Criteria approach to apply. The largest obligor comprises 0.7% of
the total pool balance. There is wide diversification across
industries, asset types and geographies.
Servicing Continuity Risk Addressed: The credit risk of the
obligors and the heterogeneity of the financed equipment increases
the complexity of finding replacement servicers. However, Fitch
views the risk as adequately mitigated by the presence of a back-up
servicer and the availability of liquidity to preserve timely
payments on the notes during the transition period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Rating sensitivity to increased default rates:
Increase default rate by 10% / 25% / 50%
Class A: 'AA+sf' / 'AAsf' / 'A+sf'
Class B: 'A+sf' / 'Asf' / 'BBB+sf'
Class C: 'BBB+sf' / 'BBBsf' / 'BB+sf'
Class D: 'BB+sf' / 'BBsf' / 'B+sf'
Class E: 'Bsf' / 'B-sf' / 'CCCsf'
Class F: 'CCCsf' / 'NRsf' / 'NRsf'
Class X: 'NRsf' / 'NRsf' / 'NRsf'
Rating sensitivity to reduced recovery rates:
Reduce recovery rate by 10% / 25% / 50%
Class A: 'AA+sf' / 'AA+sf' / 'AA+sf'
Class B: 'AA-sf' / 'A+sf' / 'A+sf'
Class C: 'BBB+sf' / 'BBB+sf' / 'BBB+sf'
Class D: 'BB+sf' / 'BB+sf' / 'BBsf'
Class E: 'B+sf' / 'B+sf' / 'Bsf'
Class F: 'CCCsf' / 'CCCsf' / 'CCCsf'
Class X: 'NRsf' / 'NRsf' / 'NRsf'
Rating sensitivity to increased default rates and reduced recovery
rates:
Increase default rate and reduce recovery rate each by 10% / 25% /
50%
Class A: 'AA+sf' / 'AA-sf' / 'Asf'
Class B: 'A+sf' / 'A-sf' / 'BBBsf'
Class C: 'BBBsf' / 'BBB-sf' / 'BBsf'
Class D: 'BBsf' / 'BB-sf' / 'B-sf'
Class E: 'Bsf' / 'CCCsf' / 'NRsf'
Class F: 'CCCsf' / 'NRsf' / 'NRsf'
Class X: 'NRsf' / 'NRsf' / 'NRsf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Rating sensitivity to reduced default rates and increased recovery
rates:
Reduce default rate and increase recovery rate each by 10%
Class B: 'AAsf'
Class C: 'Asf'
Class D: 'BBB-sf'
Class E: 'BBsf'
Class F: 'Bsf'
Class X: 'B-sf'
The class A notes are already rated 'AAAsf' and cannot be
upgraded.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small, targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and the other information
provided to the rating agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the rating
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
WILSHIRE OPCO: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------------
Wilshire Opco UK Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Court Number CR-2026-001550, and Chad Griffin (IP
No. 9528) and Daniel Conway (IP No. 29112) of FRP Advisory Trading
Limited were appointed as Joint Administrators on March 2, 2026.
Wilshire Opco UK engages in other information service activities
not elsewhere classified.
The company's registered office is at 13th Floor, One Angel Court,
C/O Tmf Group, London, EC2R 7HJ to be changed to c/o FRP Advisory
Trading Limited, 110 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6EU.
The company's principal trading address is at 13th Floor, One Angel
Court, C/O Tmf Group, London, EC2R 7HJ.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Chad Griffin (IP No. 9528)
Daniel Conway (IP No. 29112)
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
2nd Floor, 110 Cannon Street
London, EC4N 6EU
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 3005 4000
Email: cp.london@frpadvisory.com
Alternative contact: Ella Sutton
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
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