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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, July 21, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 144
Headlines
A Z E R B A I J A N
BANK OF BAKU: Moody's Affirms 'B1' Deposit Ratings, Outlook Stable
B E L G I U M
ASTERIA HOLDING: Moody's Assigns 'B2' CFR, Outlook Positive
B U L G A R I A
MUNICIPAL BANK: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba2 Deposit Rating to Pos
F R A N C E
ALMAVIVA DEVELOPMENT: Fitch Affirms Then Withdraws 'B' LT IDR
ASMODEE GROUP: Moody's Ups CFR & EUR320MM Sr. Secured Notes to Ba3
G E R M A N Y
CEREBRO HOLDCO: EUR200MM Loan Add-on No Impact on Moody's 'B3' CFR
I R E L A N D
BARINGS EURO 2019-2: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on Class E Notes
CIFC EUROPEAN IV: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR11.6MM F Notes
DRYDEN 52 2017: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on EUR20MM E-R Notes
MADISON PARK XI: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)sf' Rating to Cl. F-R Notes
I T A L Y
CONCERIA PASUBIO: Moody's Rates New EUR400MM Sr. Secured Notes 'B3'
K A Z A K H S T A N
FORTEBANK JSC: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
L I T H U A N I A
AKROPOLIS GROUP: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
S W I T Z E R L A N D
RECIPHARM HOLDING: Moody's Assigns B2 CFR, Rates New Term Loan B2
T U R K E Y
AKBANK TAS: Moody's Affirms Ba3 LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
ODEA BANK: Moody's Affirms 'B1' LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
QNB BANK: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' Long Term Deposit Rating
RONESANS HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
T.C. ZIRAAT: Moody's Affirms Ba3 LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
TURKIYE GARANTI: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
U K R A I N E
DTEK RENEWABLES: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Long-Term IDRs
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
AIRA FORCE 2026-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating to Class G Notes
ALDERLEY PARTNERSHIPS: BTG Begbies Appointed as Administrators
BOSS POWERBOATS: Leading Appointed as Joint Administrators
EUROSAIL-UK 07-4 BL: Fitch Affirms 'CCsf' Rating on Class E1c Notes
FINANCE FOR RESIDENTIAL: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Rating on 1-B Notes
URBAN POWERBOAT: Leading Appointed as Joint Administrators
VICTORIA PLC: Moody's Lowers CFR & Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to Caa2
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A Z E R B A I J A N
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BANK OF BAKU: Moody's Affirms 'B1' Deposit Ratings, Outlook Stable
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Moody's Ratings has affirmed Azerbaijan-based Bank of Baku, OJSC's
(Bank of Baku) B1 long-term local and foreign currency bank deposit
ratings. The outlook on these ratings remains stable. At the same
time, Moody's affirmed the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA)
and Adjusted BCA at b1. Concurrently Moody's affirmed the NP
short-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings, the
bank's Ba3/NP long-term and short-term local and foreign currency
Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) and the Ba3(cr)/NP(cr) long-term
and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR Assessments).
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of Bank of Baku's BCA and Adjusted BCA at b1
reflects the bank's strong capitalisation and solid profitability,
which provide a significant buffer against potential credit losses.
These strengths are balanced against the bank's concentrated
business model, which is primarily focused on unsecured consumer
lending—a segment inherently more sensitive to economic
cycles—as well as its relatively modest liquidity cushion.
Bank of Baku's problem loans (PLs, defined as Stage 3 loans)
increased to 4.3% of gross loans at year-end 2025 from 2.6% at
year-end 2024, reflecting the seasoning of the loan portfolio.
Nevertheless, the bank's high revenue-generating capacity continues
to provide ample loss-absorption capacity. Moody's expects the PL
ratio to remain broadly stable over the next 12–18 months,
supported by ongoing loan write-offs, favorable economic conditions
in Azerbaijan, and the bank's increasing focus on higher-income
customer segments, which should help moderate asset quality risks
as the portfolio continues to season.
As of year-end 2025, Bank of Baku reported a Tangible Common Equity
(TCE)-to-risk-weighted assets (RWA) ratio of 15.8%, down from 17.5%
at year-end 2024. The bank's still strong capital position
continues to be supported by robust internal capital generation
through earnings, which helps mitigate the impact of rapid business
growth on capital metrics. Moody's expects capital adequacy to
gradually moderate over the next 12–18 months as continued loan
expansion and sizeable dividend distributions outpace the positive
pressure on capital from strong retained earnings, although capital
levels are expected to remain commensurate with the bank's current
risk profile.
In 2025, Bank of Baku reported a good return on tangible assets of
2.4%. Earnings continue to benefit from robust recurring revenue
generation following the successful clean-up of the balance sheet
and the gradual replacement of the legacy problem loan portfolio.
Newly originated loans exhibit stronger credit quality and generate
stable and strong interest income.
As of year-end 2025, customer deposits accounted for 78% of the
bank's total liabilities. Meanwhile, market funds, which also
include long-term state funds used to finance mortgages and support
entrepreneurs, accounted for 17% of the bank's tangible banking
assets. Moody's considers these funding sources are subject to
modest refinancing risk. The deposit portfolio is granular and
largely represented by retail deposits. Bank of Baku's liquidity
buffer was around 13% of the bank's total assets as of year-end
2025. Although this buffer is modest compared with similarly rated
regional and global banks, liquidity risks are mitigated by the
short-term duration of the loan book.
Bank of Baku's long-term deposit ratings of B1 are based on the
bank's BCA of b1 and do not benefit from any external support
because of Moody's assumptions of low probability of government
support from the Government of Azerbaijan. These assumptions are
based on the bank's modest market position, with a 2% share of
system assets as of year-end 2025.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on Bank of Baku's long-term deposit ratings
reflects Moody's expectations that the bank will be able to
maintain its key credit metrics such as capital, profitability and
asset quality at broadly the same levels over the next 12-18
months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward pressure on the ratings could develop if improvements in
Azerbaijan's operating environment are accompanied by further
strengthening of Bank of Baku's credit profile, particularly in
asset quality, funding and liquidity, while maintaining strong
capitalisation and profitability. Downward pressure could emerge if
the bank experiences a material deterioration in its financial
fundamentals, including weaker asset quality, liquidity,
profitability or capital adequacy.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
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B E L G I U M
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ASTERIA HOLDING: Moody's Assigns 'B2' CFR, Outlook Positive
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Moody's Ratings has assigned a B2 corporate family rating and B2-PD
probability of default rating to Asteria Holding BV (Asteria), the
new parent company of Asteria group, a European label manufacturer
focusing on self-adhesive labels for SMEs serving a diverse range
of end markets including food, beverages and healthcare. At the
same time, Moody's have withdrawn the B2 CFR, B2-PD PDR and the
stable outlook of Packaging Printco NV.
Moody's also affirmed the B2 ratings on the EUR400 million backed
senior secured term loan B (TLB) and on the EUR80 million backed
senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in 2032,
both borrowed by PPC Finance B.V., a subsidiary of Asteria Holding
BV. The outlook on PPC Finance B.V. has changed to positive from
stable. The outlook on Asteria Holding BV is positive.
"The action reflects Asteria's stronger than expected operating
performance since Moody's first-time rating, which translated into
credit metrics that are solid for the B2 rating category and that
Moody's expects will improve further," says Donatella Maso, a
Moody's Ratings VP-Ratings and lead analyst for Asteria.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The outlook change to positive is driven by Asteria's
stronger-than-expected operating performance since the first-time
rating and Moody's expectations that the company will continue to
deliver resilient earnings and cash generation despite challenging
European macroeconomic market conditions.
In 2025, Asteria increased turnover to EUR553 million from EUR455
million, pro forma for three acquisitions completed during the
year. On a like for like basis, revenue increased by approximately
3%-4%, owing to a combination of volume and price growth.
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA rose to around EUR100 million and the
margin improved to 18%, above prior year and budget because of
procurement savings and integration synergies. In Q1 2026, while
revenue was broadly flat, Moody's adjusted EBITDA increased by EUR2
million, supported by gross margin expansion from pricing actions,
raw-material sourcing initiatives and the continued phase-out of
lower-margin customers. These results support solid credit metrics
for the rating level, with Moody's-adjusted leverage declining to
4.4x from 5.7x at the time of the first-time rating.
Moody's expects Asteria's revenue and EBITDA to grow modestly in
2026-2027, supported by stable demand across food, beverage and
healthcare-related end markets, its diversified customer base and
ability to pass through raw-material cost inflation. EBITDA is
likely to grow at a slightly faster pace than revenue, benefiting
from operational leverage, margin expansion initiatives and
selective investments in capacity and efficiency, with further
contribution from an add-on acquisition (Mercian Labels) closed in
June. While the company remains exposed to execution risk from its
active buy-and-build strategy and to potential raw-material
volatility linked to the Middle East conflict, its improved
margins, strong customer relationships and ample liquidity provide
some protection against a weaker operating environment. As a
result, Moody's expects further leverage reduction over the next
12-18 months.
Moody's forecasts do not include additional bolt-on acquisitions,
which the company may pursue to achieve above market growth rates.
While Asteria has developed a track record of post-acquisition
performance improvement, the pace and scale of acquisitions
increase the risk of operational disruption, and integration delays
particularly as it expands into new geographies, potentially
derailing or slowing down the deleveraging trajectory. Moody's
expects that the shareholders will continue to grow via M&A by
maintaining a senior secured net leverage well within 4.5x.
Asteria's B2 CFR continues to reflect its established position in
the Western European self-adhesive label market, supported by
resilient end-market exposure, a flexible manufacturing footprint,
and a highly diversified customer base. The rating also
incorporates solid interest coverage and Moody's expectations that
the company will continue to generate positive free cash flow
(FCF), supported by disciplined capital spending and stable working
capital.
Conversely, Asteria's B2 CFR is constrained by its narrow product
focus, exposure to a mature and competitive market, limited revenue
visibility from the absence of long-term contracts, and sensitivity
to macroeconomic conditions through its SME customer base. The
rating also reflects pressure from raw-material and labour costs,
and execution risk linked to its continued reliance on acquisitions
to support above-market growth rates.
LIQUIDITY
Asteria's liquidity profile is very good for the next 12-18 months'
requirements. It is supported by a cash balance of EUR34 million as
of March 2026; a fully available EUR80 million RCF maturing in
2032; Moody's expectations for positive FCF; and no material debt
amortisation until 2032. Additionally, the company relies on a
EUR40 million non-recourse factoring program, with an expected
average utilization of around 17-20 million.
The senior facility agreement includes one springing covenant set
at maximum net leverage of 7.5x which is tested quarterly when the
RCF drawings exceed 40% of the RCF commitments. Moody's expects
Asteria to maintain large capacity under this covenant.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2 CFR has been assigned to Asteria Holding BV, the new parent
company of the group as well as the reporting entity.
Asteria's B2-PD PDR reflects Moody's assumptions of a 50% family
recovery rate, customary for capital structures that include bank
debt with no financial maintenance covenants.
The B2 ratings on the backed senior secured term loan B and on the
RCF are in line with the CFR, reflecting the fact that these two
instruments rank pari passu and represent the vast majority of the
company's financial debt. These facilities are guaranteed by
material subsidiaries representing at least 80% of consolidated
EBITDA and benefit from pledges over shares of each obligor owned
by an obligor, material bank accounts and intragroup receivables,
and where it is possible from a floating charge over moveable
assets. Moody's considers this type of security package as weak.
RATIONALE FOR THE POSITIVE OUTLOOK
The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Asteria's
like-for-like performance will be sustained and its credit metrics
will improve further over the next 12–18 months, supported by
modest revenue growth, profitability and integration benefits,
while maintaining positive FCF and good liquidity. The outlook also
incorporates Moody's assumptions that the company will maintain a
balanced financial policy and will not pursue transformational
debt-funded acquisitions or dividend recapitalizations that would
materially weaken its credit quality.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade Asteria's rating if it develops a track
record of disciplined financial policy leading to a
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA sustainably below 4.5x; its
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA/Interest Expense remains above 4.0x; and
its Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt stays above 5%.
Moody's could downgrade Asteria's rating if its Moody's-adjusted
gross debt/EBITDA exceeds 5.5x due to weakening operating
performance or significant debt-funded acquisitions; or if its
Moody's-adjusted FCF or liquidity deteriorates.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Packaging
Manufacturers: Metal, Glass and Plastic Containers published in
December 2025.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Belgium, Asteria is one of the largest label
manufacturers in Western Europe, primarily focusing on
self-adhesive labels for SMEs serving a diverse range of end
markets including food, beverages and healthcare. Asteria has more
than 2,350 FTEs across 41 printing facilities in 10 European
countries.
For the twelve months ending March 31, 2026, the company generated
EUR553 million of revenue and EUR102 million of Moody's adjusted
EBITDA, pro forma for the acquisition of Label World, Grupo
Ezquerro and ProPrint Group. Asteria is 86% owned by private equity
sponsor Waterland since 2018, with the CEO and other members of the
management team holding the remainder.
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B U L G A R I A
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MUNICIPAL BANK: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba2 Deposit Rating to Pos
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Moody's Ratings has affirmed Municipal Bank AD's (Municipal) long-
and short-term deposit ratings at Ba2/NP and changed the outlook on
the long-term deposit ratings to positive from stable.
Concurrently, Moody's affirmed Municipal's b1 Baseline Credit
Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, its Ba1/NP long- and short-term
Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) and its Ba1(cr)/NP(cr) long- and
short-term Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessments.
RATINGS RATIONALE
-- RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Municipal's ratings reflects the bank's strong
core liquidity and capital with a tangible common equity-to-risk
weighted assets ratio of 17.2% as of the end of 2025, limited
reliance on less stable funding sources, as well as improved
profitability. These drivers are balanced against high asset risks
given rapid loan growth and credit concentrations, as well as
challenges in carving out a defendable universal banking franchise
in Bulgaria's competitive market, a limited performance and
underwriting track record under its new operating model
particularly during an economic downturn, and a concentrated
ownership structure.
The affirmation of the Ba2 long-term deposit ratings also reflects
unchanged results of Moody's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF)
analysis, which indicate a very low loss-given-failure, driven by
the significant amount of junior deposits that would be available
to share losses and supported by the loss absorption offered by
senior non-preferred instruments, resulting in a two-notch uplift
from the bank's b1 Adjusted BCA.
-- POSITIVE OUTLOOK
The positive outlook on Municipal's long-term deposit ratings
reflects its improved profitability metrics, which if sustained
will support higher loss absorption through earnings and stronger
internal capital generation. The bank reported a net
income-to-tangible assets ratio of 1.1% in 2025, and around 1% in
Q1 2026.
Municipal's profitability has improved over time, supported by
credit growth, a shift in the structure of liquid assets and higher
asset yields. Following Bulgaria's accession to the euro area, as
well as the recent European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike,
profitability also benefits from the ability to earn the ECB's
deposit facility rate on its large excess liquidity.
In addition, increased digitalisation and automation could support
higher business volumes and faster turnaround times. Nonetheless,
profitability will continue to face headwinds from the bank's
limited scale and rising operating expenses, driven by higher staff
costs and ongoing investments in IT and systems.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Municipal's ratings may be upgraded following sustainably stronger
financial performance, including the aforementioned profitability
improvements. Ratings may also be upgraded over time because of
demonstrated improved competitiveness, along with lower asset risk
and a seasoning of the loan portfolio with contained losses,
particularly through an entire economic cycle.
Deposit ratings could also be upgraded in case of higher issuances
of senior non-preferred debt to meet regulatory requirements, which
would increase loss absorbing buffers and reduce losses for senior
creditors resulting in a higher notching from the application of
Moody's Advanced LGF analysis.
The positive outlook on the long-term deposit ratings could be
changed back to stable if the bank's recent profitability
improvements are not sustained. Ratings may also be downgraded
following a deterioration in the bank's solvency, such as from the
formation of large new problem loans, or if capital declines
materially, as well as a deterioration in the bank's funding
profile.
Changes in the bank's liability structure, mainly a material
reduction in the volume of junior deposits or an increase in
interbank or secured funding, may reduce the uplift provided by
Moody's Advanced LGF analysis and result in a downgrade of the
deposit ratings.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
Municipal's "Assigned BCA" of b1 is set six notches below the
"Financial Profile" initial score of baa1 reflecting the bank's
high asset risks from rapid credit growth and borrower
concentration, the potential impact of stress scenarios on capital,
as well as its private concentrated ownership structure, challenges
in carving out a defendable franchise and limited track record.
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F R A N C E
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ALMAVIVA DEVELOPMENT: Fitch Affirms Then Withdraws 'B' LT IDR
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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Almaviva Development's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook and senior
secured instrument rating on its term loan B (TLB) at 'B+' with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR3'. Fitch has subsequently withdrawn the
ratings.
Almaviva's ratings reflect its geographical concentration in
France, a supportive regulatory framework, high barriers to entry
and high leverage. The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation
that Almaviva's EBITDAR leverage will gradually return to slightly
below 7.0x from 2027 as margins and free cash flow (FCF) gradually
improve.
Almaviva owns the hospital operator Almaviva Sante, while its real
estate is owned by Almaviva Patrimoine (the PropCo). Almaviva and
the PropCo are sister companies owned by the acquisition vehicle,
Almaviva Holding.
The ratings are being withdrawn for commercial reasons.
Key Rating Drivers
M&A Accelerates: Almaviva restarted its M&A strategy in 2024,
having paused it since 2021. The group invested EUR40 million in
2024 and EUR100 million in 2025 in multiple bolt-on acquisitions,
including two modest acquisitions in Italy through which it entered
a new country, opening a new avenue of inorganic growth. In 2026
the group made the larger acquisition of Sainte-Marguerite Group
(SMG) in Marseille. Fitch expects acquisitions to support low to
mid-single digit organic growth, leading to revenue growth of
around 27% in 2026 and close to 10% in 2027 following 25% in 2025.
High Leverage to Moderate: Fitch-defined EBITDAR leverage in 2025
increased to 7.7x (7.2x net) from 6.7x in 2024, as EUR220 million
in TLB debt was raised to finance an extraordinary EUR61 million
dividend reinvested in real estate at the Almaviva Patrimoine
level, acquisitions of EUR100 million and slightly negative FCF.
Fitch expects that EBITDAR gross leverage will decline to 7.3x in
2026 despite stable EBITDAR net leverage, as readily available cash
is used to finance the acquisition of SMG. Fitch anticipates that
EBITDAR gross leverage will moderate further to below 7x from 2027,
driven by EBITDA expansion.
Margin to Improve: Fitch expects Fitch-defined EBITDA margin to
decline slightly to 10.5% in 2026 from 11.1% in 2025 due to a
temporary impact from the margin-dilutive acquisition of SMG. Fitch
anticipates a gradual recovery of margins to 13% by 2028 as
management implements measures to bring SMG's profitability in line
with the group average. Fitch sees limited headroom for structural
profitability improvement materially beyond this level, given
personnel and lease-intensive operations. Fitch views effective
cost management without compromising service standards as an
essential competitive differentiation and as critical as a
supportive regulatory framework.
Weak FCF to Turn Positive: The rating reflects that FCF generation
has been weak over the past five years, with FCF margin negative
between -4% and -2%, expect for 2024 due to a working capital
inflow. Fitch expects FCF margin to gradually increase and to
become positive from 2027, driven by EBITDA growth and a moderation
of expansion capex. Fitch projects net capex intensity (after
finance leases) to reduce to 3.5%-4.0% from the from 5%-5.5% of the
past five years.
Supportive and Evolving Regulation: Fitch believes Almaviva
benefits from a supportive regulatory environment in France, with
private providers critical for meeting national hospital demand and
service quality. The French government is committed to adequate
sector funding, including to the private sector. Tariff increases
were historically based on three-year tariff agreements, which
increases business visibility and benefits market constituents
including private operators. However, since the pandemic tariff
increases have been updated annually on 1 March and have not always
kept pace with inflation.
Low Tariff Increases: Average regulated tariffs have increased very
modestly since 2024, following increases of 6.9% in 2021, 1% in
2022 and 5.2% in 2023. In 2024 the 0.3% increase for private
operators was exceptionally lower than the 5% for public operators,
but this was mitigated by measures including lower operating taxes.
In 2025 the increase was equalised again at 0.5%, and in 2026
tariff were broadly flat and applicable from January, with a slight
negative impact expected for Almaviva. Fitch expects tariff
agreements to be constructive despite potential political changes.
Government reimbursement and regulation will have a direct impact
on Almaviva's profitability trajectory.
Well-Positioned Regional Operations: In its view, Almaviva is well
positioned in demographically and economically attractive regions
of France, including Greater Paris (about 40% sales), the
south-east (about 35%), Corsica, Guadeloupe and Lyon. It also has
small operations in Canada and Italy. Fitch expects Almaviva to
maintain its competitive edge as a regional French operator, due to
its dense hospital network, integrated service offering, extended
end-to-end patient care and ability to recruit and retain medical
practitioners. It operates in a regulated sector with high barriers
to entry, requiring strong technical and investment expertise.
Peer Analysis
Fitch rates Almaviva under the framework of the ratings navigator
for healthcare providers. Its peers tend to cluster in the 'B'/'BB'
range, driven by their regulatory frameworks and operating
profiles, including scale, degree of service and geographic
diversification, and patient and payor mix.
Almaviva's 'B' IDR reflects its medium-sized regional operations
with lower business scale and narrow geographic diversification
compared with larger Fitch-rated US-based hospital operators such
as Tenet Healthcare Corporation (BB/Stable), Universal Health
Services, Inc. (BB+/Stable) and Community Health Systems, Inc.
(CCC+). The quality of US regulation with a complex, politicised
and unpredictable environment, varying patient/payor mix and
Medicare/Medicaid payment policies for individual service lines
weigh heavily on their ratings.
Among its European peers, Fitch views the French regulatory regime
as more beneficial for private hospital operators given the
freedom-of-choice principle, mitigating Almaviva's narrow
geographic focus. The Finnish healthcare and social services
provider, Mehilainen Yhtyma Oy (B/Stable), is exposed to more
restrictions. The private mental care and rehabilitation specialist
Median B.V. (B-/Positive) operating in Germany and the UK has
slightly higher leverage and lower profitability than Almaviva. The
family-owned German hospital operator Schoen Klinik SE (B+/Stable)
has lower adjusted leverage, a more prudent financial policy, and
owns a higher portion of its facilities.
Fitch also compares Almaviva's 'B' rating with European lab-testing
service providers, which Fitch also regards as social
infrastructure assets with non-cyclical revenue and high visibility
due to sector regulation.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Organic sales growth at low-to-mid single digits over 2026-2028
- Total revenue growth of 28% in 2026 and in the high-single digits
in 2027 and 2028, supported by the acquisition of GSM in 2026 and
EUR50 million in annual bolt-on acquisitions in 2027 and 2028
- EBITDA margin declining to 10.5% in 2026, 12.0% in 2027 and 12.5%
in 2028
- Operating leases about 8% of sales
- Net capex (after funding from financial leasing) at 4.2% in 2026
and at 3.5%-4.0% in 2027-2028
- No shareholder injections nor dividends paid over 2026-2028.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('b+', Moderate), sector characteristics
('bb+', Lower), market and competitive positioning ('bb', Higher),
diversification and asset quality ('b+', Moderate), company
operational characteristics ('bb-', Moderate), profitability
('bb-', Moderate), financial structure ('ccc+', Higher), and
financial flexibility ('b+', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the forecast year 2025,
30% for the forecast year 2026, 40% for the forecast year 2027 and
10% for the forecast year 2028.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and has no impact.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'a+' has no impact.
The SCP is 'b'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of 'B'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that Almaviva would be reorganised as
a going concern (GC) in bankruptcy rather than liquidated, given
that the company's main asset is embedded in its brand and its
established position as one of the leading private hospital
operators.
Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim. Fitch estimates
Almaviva's GC EBITDA assumption at about EUR75 million (from EUR65
million previously, reflecting the EBITDA contribution of new
acquisitions). The GC EBITDA is based on a stressed scenario
reflecting adverse regulatory changes, the company's inability to
manage costs or retain medical practitioners leading to
deteriorating quality of care.
An enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x (unchanged) is
applied to the GC EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganisation EV.
This multiple is based on precedent M&A EV/EBITDA for peers of
10.0x-15.0x, with recent activity at the upper end, and is in line
with European sector peers' multiples. The multiple is in line with
Mehilainen Yhtyma Oy's 6x, given the latter's national leadership
in Finland with increasing diversification abroad, broader
diversification across healthcare and social care service lines and
larger scale, whereas its regulatory regime is less supportive for
private sector operators in Finland.
After deducting 10% for administrative claims, its waterfall
analysis generates a ranked recovery for Almaviva's senior secured
term loan B in the 'RR3' category, leading to a 'B+' instrument
rating, which includes the pari passu ranking EUR130 million
revolving credit facility (RCF) that Fitch assumes will be fully
drawn prior to distress. The senior secured term loan B and RCF
rank after Almaviva's structurally super senior bank loans of about
EUR19 million. Fitch also assumes EUR78 million financial leases at
Almaviva and its factoring programme will remain available during
and post-distress and will not crystallise as a debt obligation.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Not applicable as the ratings have been withdrawn.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Liquidity was satisfactory as of December 2025, with EUR70 million
of readily available cash (Fitch restricts EUR20 million for daily
operations) and a EUR80 million undrawn RCF (among committed EUR130
million) due October 2030. Fitch views ambitious capex and M&A
plans could put liquidity under pressure unless supported by
shareholder contributions.
The debt structure is concentrated. However, the company has
long-dated maturities with the TLB coming due in April 2031 after
the amend and extend, respectively.
Issuer Profile
Almaviva is the fourth-largest private hospital group in France,
operating mainly in Île-de-France (43% of sales) and
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur in the south east (34% sales). It also
operates in Italy (5%) and Canada (3%).
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Almaviva Developpement has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Exposure to Social Impacts due to complex group structure between
Almaviva and its sister company Almaviva Patrimoine (the PropCo),
to which it leases most of its leaes. Both entities are owned by
the parent Almaviva Holding. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction
with other factors.
Almaviva Developpement has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Governance Structure due to a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other
factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Almaviva Developpement LT IDR B Affirmed B
LT IDR WD Withdrawn
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
senior secured LT WD Withdrawn
ASMODEE GROUP: Moody's Ups CFR & EUR320MM Sr. Secured Notes to Ba3
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded Asmodee Group AB's (Asmodee) long-term
corporate family rating to Ba3 from B1 and its probability of
default rating to Ba3-PD from B1-PD. At the same time, Moody's have
upgraded to Ba3 from B1 the ratings on the outstanding EUR320
million backed senior secured fixed-rate notes, due December 2029,
issued by the company. The outlook remains positive.
"The upgrade to Ba3 reflects the sustained positive momentum in
Asmodee's operating performance, resulting in a significant
improvement in credit metrics over the last 12 months", says
Giuliana Cirrincione, Moody's Ratings AVP-Ratings and lead analyst
for Asmodee. "Moody's also expects Asmodee to maintain solid
operating performance and a balanced financial policy, supporting
further strengthening of its credit metrics and potentially leading
to a rating upgrade over the next 12-18 months", adds Mrs.
Cirrincione.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Asmodee's Ba3 CFR incorporates Moody's expectations for improved
operating results over the next 12 to 18 months, which will keep
its credit metrics strong for the rating. Asmodee's credit profile
is supported by its global presence and leading positions in the
hobby segment of the tabletop games market in Europe and the US,
underpinned by a broad and diversified games portfolio and its dual
business model as an independent publisher and a distributor with
an international reach. Asmodee has reported consistently solid
topline and earnings growth over the past few years, which reflects
positive industry fundamentals - with loyal consumers and a
relatively resilient demand even at times of economic slowdown –
as well as a solid track record of successful M&A strategy.
Over the past two years Asmodee's sales and earnings growth have
been driven primarily by exceptionally strong performance in
trading card games (TCGs). TCGs revenue increased by 47% in the
financial year ended March 2026, while Board Games revenue declined
by 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting mainly unfavorable foreign
exchange movements and softer demand in the US for higher-priced
titles.
As a result, TCGs has become Asmodee's largest game category and
now accounts for 61% of total sales as of March 2026, followed by
Board Games (roughly 30%). A significant portion of the company's
revenue and earnings comes from third-party distribution and
licensed intellectual property. Within the TCG category, Pokémon
cards have been the key driver of growth, with Asmodee serving as a
principal distributor across several European and Latin American
markets.
Moody's expects revenue and EBITDA growth to moderate from current
levels, reflecting a normalization in TCG performance, particularly
for Pokémon cards. However, Moody's forecasts continued positive
momentum in TCGs, supported by structural demand drivers, expanding
relationships with new licensing partners and a robust product
pipeline across multiple IPs beyond Pokémon. Over time, this
should help reduce Asmodee's reliance on Pokémon cards and
mitigate earnings volatility risk. Moody's also expects growth in
internally published games to accelerate over the next 12-18
months, as US consumer confidence slowly improves and the company
strategically adjusts its product mix in key regions. The recent
acquisition of board games publisher ATM Gaming SAS will be a key
contributor to growth in financial 2027, as the studio brings a
portfolio of well-established titles, is margin accretive and it is
focused on the social and party games category, the fastest-growing
of the board games market.
Based on Moody's forecasts, Asmodee's topline will increase by
mid-single digit percentage rates over the next two years, and its
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA will continue to improve to around EUR285
million and EUR300 million by financial 2027 and 2028,
respectively, from EUR270 million the prior year. As a result,
Moody's expects a further improvement in gross leverage, with
Moody's-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA declining to 2.6x by
financial year-end 2027 from 3.2x the prior year, and further to
2.3x by financial 2028.
Moody's forecasts Asmodee's free cash flow (FCF) generation
capacity to remain solid, at around EUR100 million - EUR125 million
annually, equivalent to 15% on average of gross debt. Moody's views
this FCF potential, which is strong for the rating category, as a
key credit positive, because this also includes Moody's
expectations that Asmodee will start paying growing dividends while
maintaining good financial flexibility to accommodate recurring and
internally funded acquisition spending without impairing its
liquidity.
Asmodee remains committed to its publicly stated long-term net
leverage target of 2.0x (as company-defined), which the company has
reached faster than initially anticipated, at 1.5x as of March
2026. Moody's understands that dividend payments are contingent on
remaining at or below the net leverage target of 2x, which further
supports Moody's expectations that Asmodee will maintain a prudent
financial policy going forward.
Besides the large exposure to third-party IPs, which creates
potential earnings volatility, Asmodee's Ba3 CFR is also
constrained by its small size compared with large international
competitors in the broader toys and games industry; its elevated
appetite for acquisitions to expand and innovate its IP catalogue
in a highly fragmented market; and some execution risk associated
with planned expansion into the digital board games category and
the IP-licensing business.
LIQUIDITY
Asmodee's liquidity is very good, supported by an ample - but
unusually high - cash balance of EUR437 million as of March 2026
and a fully available EUR150 million revolving credit facility
(RCF). Moody's expects Asmodee's current cash balance and future
internal cash flow generation over the next 12-18 months to
abundantly cover all basic cash obligations. These include
typically low capital spending of around EUR30 million per year
(Moody's-adjusted for capitalised development costs), as well as
working capital needs that peak mainly before the Christmas season
due to inventory and receivables buildup, and will likely increase
as business growth continues. Based on Moody's forecasts, Asmodee's
FCF will range EUR100 million - EUR125 million annually, which
assumes also moderate and progressively growing dividend payments
starting from financial 2027. In Moody's views this cash generation
provides an adequate liquidity buffer to meet existing and future
post-closing cash commitments from acquisitions.
Moody's expects Asmodee to fund future acquisitions mainly with
cash on its balance sheet, and the associated M&A spending to be
not meaningfully higher than past acquisitions. Access to the RCF
is subject to a net leverage springing financial covenant of 5.5x
(with a step-down to 5x after March 2027), which is tested when
more than 40% of the RCF is drawn, and under which Moody's expects
the company to retain ample capacity.
Other than certain cash commitments related to completed M&A that
Moody's add to the debt, Asmodee does not face any material
financial debt maturities before the notes come due in 2029 and
2031.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The Ba3 rating for the EUR320 million senior secured fixed-rate
notes, due in December 2029, is in line with the CFR, reflecting
its pari passu ranking with the outstanding EUR320 million senior
secured fixed-rate bond due 2031 and the fact that these
instruments represent the majority of the company's new debt
structure. According to Moody's Loss Given Default for
Speculative-Grade Companies (LGD) methodology, the Ba3 CFR is
aligned with the Ba3-PD probability of default rating, based on an
assumed recovery rate of 50%, as customary for transactions that
include both bonds and bank debt.
The EUR150 million super senior RCF ranks at the top of Moody's LGD
waterfall, followed by the notes and trade payables, but is not
sizeable enough to lead to a notching of the bonds below the CFR,
according to Moody's LGD methodology.
Both the notes and the RCF are secured against the same collateral,
that is, share pledges, intercompany receivables and bank accounts
of the main companies of the group. Moody's typically view debt
with this type of security package as akin to unsecured debt.
Guarantor subsidiaries will account for at least 80% of the group's
consolidated EBITDA.
RATIONALE FOR THE POSITIVE OUTLOOK
The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Asmodee's
revenue and EBITDA growth will continue over the next 12-18 months,
both organically and via M&A, but at a slower pace than in the
recent past. The outlook also reflects the expectation that
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage will reduce further towards 2.5x
and that cash flow generation will remain strong even after
accounting for M&A spending and dividend payments, supporting
potential for further deleveraging.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade Asmodee's ratings if the company continues to
report strong and sustainable EBITDA growth driven also by
internally published games, and demonstrates its ability to sustain
a Moody's-adjusted gross leverage consistently below 2.5x while
maintaining a strong Moody's-adjusted FCF after dividend payments.
An upgrade would also require that the company maintains at least
good liquidity and a balanced financial policy, including
commitment to a (company-defined) net leverage target of 2x and
prudent M&A strategy.
Moody's could downgrade Asmodee's ratings if operating performance
weakens as a result of the exit of substantial third-party IPs from
the company's portfolio or a significant drop in revenue from
trading card games. Quantitatively, this would require that the
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage increases above 3.5x and liquidity
deteriorates significantly due to persistently weaker FCF flow
generation, aggressive acquisition strategy, or elevated
shareholder remuneration.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Consumer
Packaged Goods published in February 2026.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Asmodee is a leading publisher and distributor of physical board
games and trading card games (TCGs) across Europe, North America,
South America and Asia.
With its 24 in-house studios, Asmodee develops mainly tabletop
games for both owned and licensed IPs, and its activities also
include both direct and third-party distribution. Physical board
games and TCGs accounted for 31% and 61%, respectively, of total
sales in the financial year that ended March 2026. Other revenue,
representing the remaining 8% of total sales, includes mainly
licensing and royalties, direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, video
games and subscriptions from Board Game Arena. In financial 2026,
Asmodee generated revenue of EUR1.7 billion and company-adjusted
EBITDA, i.e. before non-recurring items, of EUR285 million (or
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of EUR269 million).
Since the spin off from the Swedish video game and media holding
company Embracer Group AB in 2025, Asmodee has been listed on
Nasdaq Stockholm as an independent entity. Investment company Lars
Wingefors AB - which is the largest shareholder of both Asmodee and
Embracer - has a stake of around 17% and 38% of voting rights in
Asmodee. The remaining shares are part of the free float, held by a
diverse group of institutional and public investors.
=============
G E R M A N Y
=============
CEREBRO HOLDCO: EUR200MM Loan Add-on No Impact on Moody's 'B3' CFR
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings said that Cerebro HoldCo GmbH's (Neuraxpharm or the
company) B3 long term corporate family rating and B3-PD probability
of default rating, along with the B3 ratings of Neuraxpharm
Arzneimittel GmbH, are unaffected by the EUR200 million add-on to
the EUR668.7 million senior secured term loan (TL) B3 due in 2030.
The stable outlook remains unchanged.
The company intends to use the proceeds from the EUR200 million
add-on to pre-fund bolt-on M&A and for general corporate purposes.
If Neuraxpharm does not sign bolt-on acquisitions within three
months, this cash could be used for shareholder distribution.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Neuraxpharm's B3 rating remains weakly positioned following the
proposed transaction, which will further increase its leverage. The
EUR200 million net proceeds will ultimately be either used to fund
M&A or for shareholder distribution, increasing gross and net
leverage. The additional EUR200 million debt results in a projected
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA of around 8x in 2026. Leverage could
be lower if the company completes EBITDA-accretive acquisitions,
but Moody's expects it to remain elevated in 2026 before declining
to around 6x in 2027, a level commensurate with the B3 rating. This
improvement will depend on significant earnings growth over the
next 12 to 18 months driven by revenue growth of about 15%,
supported by the continued ramp-up of Briumvi, new product
launches, and profitability improvement. The company's progress in
the Briumvi launch supports Moody's expectations of continued
earnings growth.
Neuraxpharm has gone through substantial transformation over recent
years becoming a central nervous system (CNS) specialized
pharmaceutical company with a broader product portfolio. The
company has completed several debt-funded acquisitions (notably
Ocean that was partially funded by equity) and in-licensed Briumvi,
its first biologic drug, which it has been launching in several
European markets. These transactions along with large non-recurring
items have weighed on the company's earnings and cash flow.
Neuraxpharm's B3 rating continues to reflect the company's good
position within the CNS market in Europe; its strong growth
prospects over the next 12-18 months, supported by the ramp up of
Briumvi's sales and new product launches; well-balanced
geographical diversification across Europe; and improving
profitability margins although burdened by high non-recurring
costs.
At the same time, the ratings take into consideration the company's
elevated leverage, which positions the rating weakly in its
category; its overall modest size in terms of revenue and high
business concentration in the CNS segment; the reliance of its
earnings growth on the continuation of a successful Briumvi
ramp-up; and some degree of acquisition-related event risk because
of the company's external growth strategy, which entailed
debt-funded acquisitions in the past.
LIQUIDITY
Neuraxpharm's liquidity is good, supported by a cash balance of
EUR117 million as of March 31, 2026 and access to a EUR100 million
revolving credit facility (RCF) due June 2030, which is expected to
remain undrawn. While Moody's projects negative Moody's-adjusted
FCF of about EUR45 million in 2026, Moody's expects it to return to
positive and reach about EUR20 million in 2027.
The RCF contains a springing financial covenant, which is based on
a net leverage ratio set at 10.44x and only tested when the RCF is
drawn by more than 40%. Moody's expects Neuraxpharm to maintain
substantial capacity under this covenant if tested.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The senior secured TLs and senior secured RCF, which are rated B3,
in line with the corporate family rating, represent the bulk of
Neuraxpharm's debt and rank pari passu, with upstream guarantees
from material subsidiaries and collateral comprising shares, bank
accounts and intragroup receivables.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Neuraxpharm
will continue to execute well on its rollout of Briumvi, which will
support earnings and margin growth and organic leverage reduction,
with the company's Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA declining to around
6x in the next 12-18 months. The outlook also assumes that after a
year of inventory build-up and higher capital spending in 2026,
free cash flow (FCF) will return to positive in 2027.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward rating momentum could develop if Neuraxpharm maintains good
operating performance and successfully rolls out its new products,
notably Briumvi, allowing its Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to
decline below 5.5x on a sustained basis; its Moody's-adjusted
FCF/debt increases above 5% on a sustained basis; and its
Moody's-adjusted EBITA to interest expense increases above 2x on a
sustained basis.
Downward rating pressure could develop if Neuraxpharm's
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA remains above 7x for a prolonged
period, which could result, for instance, from Briumvi taking
longer to contribute positively to earnings or non-recurring items
remaining elevated; it generates negative Moody's-adjusted FCF on a
sustained basis, leading to a deterioration in its liquidity; its
Moody's-adjusted EBITA to interest expense declines towards 1x; or
the company undertakes large debt-financed acquisitions or
shareholder distributions.
COMPANY PROFILE
Neuraxpharm was founded in 2016 following the combination of two
pharmaceutical groups, Invent Farma and Neuraxpharm. Since then,
the company has transformed into a pan-European specialist in CNS
disorders with a presence in more than 40 countries. Neuraxpharm
generated net sales of EUR530 million in 2025, of which more than
90% came from CNS-related products. The company has been owned by
Permira since December 2020.
=============
I R E L A N D
=============
BARINGS EURO 2019-2: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on Class E Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Barings Euro CLO 2019-2 Designated Activity Company:
EUR18,000,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2032, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025 Affirmed Aa1
(sf)
EUR20,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2032,
Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025 Affirmed Aa1 (sf)
EUR25,200,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025
Affirmed A2 (sf)
EUR25,500,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025
Affirmed Baa3 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR240,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR123,902,671) Class
A-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2032, Affirmed Aaa
(sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class A-2-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2032, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR20,500,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025
Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
EUR10,500,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Affirmed Caa2 (sf); previously on Nov 7, 2025
Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Barings Euro CLO 2019-2 Designated Activity Company, issued in
January 2020 and partially refinanced in February 2022, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by Barings (U.K.) Limited. The transaction's reinvestment
period ended in July 2024.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1-R, B-2, C-R and D-R notes are
primarily a result of the deleveraging of the senior notes
following amortization of the underlying portfolio since the last
rating action in November 2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-1-R, A-2-R, E and F
notes are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A-1-R notes have paid down by approximately EUR102.2
million (42.6% of their original balance) since the last rating
action in November 2025 and EUR116.1 million (48.4% of their
original balance) since closing. As a result of the deleveraging,
over-collateralisation (OC) has increased. According to the trustee
report dated June 2026[1] the Class A/B, Class C and Class D OC
ratios are reported at 152.15%, 132.70% and 117.50% compared to
October 2025[2] levels of 135.45%, 126.06% and 114.33%
respectively.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR262.9m
Defaulted Securities: EUR3.37m
Diversity Score: 41
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3135
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.2 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.60%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.10%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.35%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as the account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Recoveries higher
than Moody's expectations would have a positive impact on the
notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
CIFC EUROPEAN IV: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR11.6MM F Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by CIFC European Funding CLO IV DAC:
EUR27,000,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR14,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2035,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021 Definitive Rating
Assigned Aa2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR248,000,000 Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR26,000,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR26,000,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR20,200,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
EUR11,600,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Aug 20, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned B3 (sf)
CIFC European Funding CLO IV DAC, issued in August 2021, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by CIFC Asset Management Europe Ltd. The transaction's
reinvestment period will end in July 2026.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1 and Class B-2 notes are
primarily a result of the benefit of the shorter period of time
remaining before the end of the reinvestment period in July 2026.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A, Class C, Class D,
Class E and Class F notes are primarily a result of the expected
losses on the notes remaining consistent with their current rating
levels, after taking into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its
relevant structural features and its actual over-collateralisation
ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR397.3m
Defaulted Securities: EUR0.9m
Diversity Score: 61
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3002
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.51 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.67%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 6.5%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.89%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: Once reaching the end of the
reinvestment period in July 2026, the main source of uncertainty in
this transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Weighted average life: The notes' ratings are sensitive to the
weighted average life assumption of the portfolio, which could
lengthen as a result of the manager's decision to reinvest in new
issue loans or other loans with longer maturities, or participate
in amend-to-extend offerings.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
DRYDEN 52 2017: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating on EUR20MM E-R Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Dryden 52 Euro CLO 2017 DAC:
EUR26,000,000 Class C-R Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025
Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
EUR28,000,000 Class D-R Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025
Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR246,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR68,345,346) Class
A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Dec 5, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR16,000,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR20,000,000 Class B-2-R Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025 Affirmed Aaa
(sf)
EUR20,000,000 Class E-R Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025
Affirmed Ba3 (sf)
EUR15,400,000 Class F-R Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Caa2 (sf); previously on Dec 5, 2025
Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Dryden 52 Euro CLO 2017 DAC, issued in July 2017 and reset in July
2021, is a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a
portfolio of mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The
portfolio is managed by PGIM Limited and PGIM Loan Originator
Manager Limited. The transaction's reinvestment period ended in
August 2023.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class C-R and D-R notes are primarily a
result of the deleveraging of the senior notes following
amortisation of the underlying portfolio since the last rating
action in December 2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-R, B-1-R, B-2-R, E-R
and F-R notes are primarily a result of the expected losses on the
notes remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after
taking into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant
structural features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A-R notes have paid down by approximately EUR62.3m
(25.3%) since the last rating action in December 2025 and EUR177.7m
(72.2%) since closing. As a result of the deleveraging,
over-collateralisation (OC) has increased across the capital
structure. According to the trustee report dated May 2026[1] the
Class A/B, Class C, Class D and Class E OC ratios are reported at
193.4%, 154.9%, 127.5% and 113.2% compared to October 2025[2]
levels of 153.0%, 134.8%, 119.4% and 110.5%, respectively.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR201.6m
Defaulted Securities: EUR3.3m
Diversity Score: 34
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3032
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.2 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.7%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.8%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 40.9%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
MADISON PARK XI: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)sf' Rating to Cl. F-R Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Madison Park Euro Funding XI DAC's reset
notes expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to the information already reviewed by
Fitch.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Madison Park Euro
Funding XI DAC
A-R LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B-R LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C-R LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D-R LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E-R LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F-R LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Madison Park Euro Funding XI DAC is a securitisation of mainly
senior secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of
senior unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield
bonds. Note proceeds will be used to redeem the existing notes,
except the subordinated notes, and to fund the portfolio with a
target par of EUR450 million. The portfolio will be managed by UBS
Asset Management Credit Investments Group (UK) Ltd. The CLO will
have a 4.6-year reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted
average life (WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors to be in the 'B/B-' category.
The Fitch weighted average rating factor (WARF) of the identified
portfolio is 24.5.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio will comprise senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 63.5%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction will include
various concentration limits in the portfolio, including a
fixed-rate obligation limit at 12.5%, a top 10 obligor
concentration limit at 25%, and a maximum exposure to the three
largest Fitch-defined industries in the portfolio at 40%. These
covenants ensure that the asset portfolio will not be exposed to
excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The deal will have a 4.6-year
reinvestment period, which is governed by reinvestment criteria
similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's analysis
is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim of testing the
robustness of the deal structure against its covenants and
portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the Fitch-stressed
portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL covenant at the
issue date to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment period. These
include, among others, passing the coverage tests and the Fitch
WARF and 'CCC' bucket limitation test post reinvestment, as well as
a WAL covenant that gradually steps down. Fitch believes these
conditions would reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio
during the stress period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the identified portfolio would lead to downgrades of one notch for
the class E-R notes and to below 'B-sf ' for the class F-R notes.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class C-R, D-R, E-R and F-R notes
display rating cushions of three notches, and the class B-R notes
of two notches. The class A-R notes do not display any rating
cushion as they are already at the highest achievable rating.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
across all ratings and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings
of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to
three notches for the class A-R, B-R, C-R and D-R notes, and to
below 'B-sf ' for the class E-R and F-R notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
increase in the RRR across all ratings of Fitch's stress portfolio
would lead to upgrades of up to five notches for the notes, except
the 'AAAsf' rated notes, which are at the highest level on Fitch's
scale and cannot be upgraded.
During the reinvestment period, based on Fitch's stress portfolio,
upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio credit quality
and a shorter remaining WAL test, leading to the ability of the
notes to withstand larger than expected losses for the remaining
life of the transaction. After the end of the reinvestment period,
upgrades may occur in case of stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses on the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Madison Park Euro
Funding XI DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
CONCERIA PASUBIO: Moody's Rates New EUR400MM Sr. Secured Notes 'B3'
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned a B3 rating to the proposed EUR400
million senior secured notes to be issued by Conceria Pasubio
S.p.A. (Pasubio, or the company). All other ratings of the company
and the stable outlook are unchanged.
Pasubio intends to use the proceeds to refinance its existing
senior secured notes due September 2028, repay EUR19 million drawn
under the EUR90 million super senior revolving credit facility
(RCF, due April 2028), fund around EUR10 million of transaction
fees and expenses, and add EUR11 million to cash for general
corporate purposes.
The company will also put in place a new EUR90 million super senior
RCF, which is expected to be undrawn at closing.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The assigned B3 rating on the new senior secured notes is in line
with Pasubio's long-term corporate family rating (CFR), which
Moody's downgraded to B3 from B2 on May 18, 2026. The CFR is
unaffected by the transaction, which will moderately increase debt
and interest costs while improving liquidity through the retention
of cash proceeds on the balance sheet. As to leverage, which
remains high initially, Moody's expects EBITDA growth to support a
gradual reduction in Pasubio's Moody's-adjusted debt to EBITDA
towards 6.5x by year-end 2027, Moody's defined maximum for the B3
rating category. Moody's also forecasts its Moody's-adjusted free
cash flow (FCF) to be positive in 2026 and next year.
The B3 rating on the proposed EUR400 million senior secured notes
further reflects Moody's standard 50% family recovery assumption
for all-senior capital structures that consist of bank and bond
debt. The senior secured notes are structurally subordinated to the
super senior RCF but share the same guarantees provided by
operating subsidiaries of the company accounting for more than 85%
of consolidated EBITDA. While the new notes are rated in line with
the CFR (as are its existing senior secured notes) given the
limited amount of prior ranking debt in Moody's loss given default
(LGD) assessment, a downgrade of the CFR resulting in weaker
recovery prospects could lead to a notching of the notes.
A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
issuer(s) has been conducted during a rating committee.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations of positive FCF
and increasing profitability, which should support Pasubio's
leverage to decline towards Moody's defined 6.5x maximum for a B3
rating, and its EBIT margin to recover to at least 8% over the next
12-18 months. The stable outlook also anticipates that the
company's liquidity remains adequate at all times. A delay in
performance and leverage improvements could, however, result in
negative rating pressure over the next quarters.
LIQUIDITY
Pasubio's liquidity profile is good and is underpinned by an
expected cash balance of EUR40 million as of March 2026 and full
access to its new EUR90 million RCF, pro forma for the proposed
transaction. Moody's also forecasts around EUR20 million of annual
funds from operations.
These cash sources, totalling around EUR150 million, will
comfortably exceed cash uses for capital spending of about EUR13
million, day-to-day working cash requirements of EUR12 million and
short-term debt maturities of around EUR20 million. Moody's do not
expect material working capital expansion over the next 12 months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
Moody's would consider a downgrade if debt/EBITDA (Moody's
adjusted) failed to improve to a maximum of 6.5x, EBIT margins
(Moody's adjusted) remained below 8%, RCF/net debt sustainably
remained below 5% or its liquidity profile deteriorated, such as
due to negative FCF.
Conversely, Moody's would consider an upgrade should Pasubio reduce
its debt/EBITDA (Moody's adjusted) below 5.5x sustainably, RCF/net
debt improves to above 10% and EBIT margins exceed 12%.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Automotive
Suppliers published in November 2025.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Arzignano, Italy -- Conceria Pasubio S.p.A.
("Pasubio") is a leading global supplier of luxury and premium
leather and textile materials. Historically a specialized
automotive leather manufacturer producing high-quality finished
leather for seats, dashboards, and steering wheels, Pasubio has
successfully executed a transformational strategy ("Pasubio 2.0")
to evolve into a diversified luxury materials platform. The company
operates through two core divisions:
Automotive Division: Focuses on the premium and luxury automotive
markets, specializing in high-quality full-grain and nappa leather.
It serves approximately 30 global OEMs, including Porsche, Jaguar
Land Rover, Bentley, and Rolls-Royce.
Fashion Division: Established in 2025 through the acquisitions of
Antiba and Sk!n (operating under the Unica platform) and further
expanded in 2026 through the acquisition of Luilor, which added
high-end luxury textiles to its portfolio.
For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026, Pasubio generated net
revenue of EUR335 million and company-adjusted EBITDA of around
EUR56 million (16.0% margin).
===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================
FORTEBANK JSC: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed ForteBank JSC's (Forte) Long-Term (LT)
Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'
with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the Viability Rating
(VR) at 'bb'.
Key Rating Drivers
Forte's LT IDRs are driven by its standalone credit profile, as
reflected in its 'bb' VR. The VR captures Forte's strengthened
franchise following the acquisition of Home Credit Bank JSC (HCBK;
BB-/Stable), strong profitability, and solid liquidity. These
strengths are balanced against the still early stage of HCBK's
integration, weakened, albeit still manageable, asset quality, and
reduced capitalisation.
High Inflation, Tightened Retail Regulations: Kazakhstan's GDP grew
by a high 6.5% in 2025 (2024: 5%), and Fitch expects economic
growth to remain robust in 2026 due to higher oil production and
solid investment. Fitch expects inflation to average 10% in 2026
(2025: 12.3%), with upside risks from tax reforms, regulated-price
adjustments and fiscal stimulus. Rapid retail lending expansion
since 2021 has created overheating risks, while ongoing regulatory
tightening is contributing to stricter credit underwriting and
slower growth.
Acquisition Completed; Integration Under Way: Forte operates a
universal banking franchise with a focus on large corporates, SMEs
and consumer finance. It completed the acquisition of HCBK, a
domestic consumer lender, in December 2025. The transaction
strengthened Forte's franchise, increasing its combined market
share by sector assets to 9.1% at 1 June 2026 from 7.3% at
end-3Q25, and may support its potential to become systemically
important over the near term.
Tangible benefits to Forte's business profile will depend on the
pace and effectiveness of HCBK's integration. Fitch sees potential
for both revenue and cost synergies, particularly through
cross-selling and selective process integration, and expect these
to materialise gradually, likely from 2027 onwards.
Larger Credit Losses Expected: The share of higher-risk consumer
loans and credit cards rose to 39% of the combined loan book
(end-3Q25: 24% standalone).Forte's credit losses fell to 0.6% of
average loans in 2025 (2024: 2.4%) on strong organic loan growth
(9M25: 53%), especially in car lending, and HCBK's consolidation in
4Q25. Fitch expects the bank's cost of risk to normalise at above
2% in 2026-2027, given Forte's loan seasoning and HCBK's inherently
higher credit losses. Credit risks are mitigated by HCBK's strong
collection expertise and the parent's conservative non-retail risk
appetite.
Weakened, but Manageable, Asset Quality: Forte's impaired loans
ratio rose to 7.4% at end-1Q26 (end-3Q25: 5.1%), due to HCBK's
consolidation and limited loan growth in 3M26. The total reserve
coverage of impaired exposures declined to 60% (end-3Q25: 73%),
reflecting the specifics of HCBK's provisioning policy. In its
view, the bank's asset quality is acceptable for the rating level,
supported by the moderate share of net loans in consolidated assets
(end-1Q26: 61%). Fitch expects the impaired loans ratio to be
stable in 2026-2027, underpinned by lending growth and continued
write-offs at HCBK.
Adequate Profitability: Forte's annualised operating
profit/risk-weighted assets (RWAs) ratio fell to 3.1% in 3M26 from
a pre-acquisition 6.2% in 9M25, pressured by larger credit losses
at HCBK. Fitch expects Forte's operating profitability to recover
gradually, with the core ratio rising to above 4% from 2027, as
integration with HCBK should begin to generate tangible operational
and financial benefits.
Core Capitalisation Declined: The combination of strong RWAs growth
in 9M25, large dividend payouts, and HCBK's acquisition reduced
Forte's Fitch Core Capital (FCC) ratio to 10% at end-2025
(end-2024: 24.4%). It modestly rose to 10.4% at end-1Q26. Fitch
expects the core ratio to recover gradually, underpinned by the
bank's capital accretion strategy and the KZT46.1 billion
shareholder capital injection in June 2026 (around 1% of
consolidated RWAs), reaching 12% by end-2026 and above 13.5% by
end-2027.
Deposit Growth; Solid Liquidity: Forte's customer deposits expanded
by a solid 49% in 2025, mitigating single-name concentration risk,
given HCBK's mostly granular retail deposit base. Forte's
loans/deposits ratio remained broadly stable after the acquisition
but rose to 98% at end-1Q26 (end-2025: 89%), due to temporary
corporate outflows. Fitch believes the core ratio will hover around
90% in 2026-2027. The bank's liquidity buffer was reasonable after
the transaction, with liquid assets equalling 25% of total assets
and covering 38% of deposits at end-1Q26.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Forte's VR and Long-Term IDRs could be downgraded if a sustained
weakening of its financial profile, particularly through
deterioration in asset quality and profitability, were to put
pressure on capitalisation and cause the FCC ratio to fall below
10%.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of Forte's VR and Long-Term IDRs would require stronger
core capitalisation, with the FCC ratio sustainably exceeding 17%,
alongside a sustained record of business model stability, supported
by the materialisation of tangible operational and financial
benefits from the integration with HCBK. Improvements in the
domestic operating environment could also support positive rating
action.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The bank's 'B' Short-Term IDRs are the only possible option mapping
to the 'BB' Long-Term IDRs.
Forte's issuance of USD400 million perpetual additional Tier 1
notes is rated four notches below Forte's 'bb' VR. This comprises
two notches for the notes' high loss severity due to their deep
subordination, and two notches for additional non-performance risk
relative to the VR, given a high write-down trigger and fully
discretionary coupons.
Forte's senior unsecured debt, including USD400 million in 7.75%
five-year Eurobonds, is rated in line with the bank's
Foreign-Currency Long-Term IDR, reflecting average recovery
prospects in a default.
Forte's National Long-Term Rating of 'A(kaz)' reflects the bank's
creditworthiness in local currency relative to that of other
issuers in Kazakhstan.
Forte's Government Support Rating (GSR) of 'b-' reflects a limited
probability of support from Kazakhstan. The significant gap between
Forte's GSR and Kazakhstan's sovereign rating captures, the bank's
moderate systemic importance, a patchy record of state support to
privately owned Kazakh banks, and the ongoing implementation of a
resolution framework in Kazakhstan.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Short-Term IDRs are sensitive to changes in the bank's
Long-Term IDRs.
The junior subordinated debt rating of additional Tier 1 notes is
sensitive to changes in the bank's VR.
The senior unsecured debt rating of Eurobonds is sensitive to
changes in the bank's Foreign-Currency IDR.
Forte's National Long-Term Rating is sensitive to changes in its
creditworthiness relative to that of other Kazakh issuers.
Forte's GSR is sensitive to the expected implementation of bank
resolution legislation in Kazakhstan. Should such resolution
legislation be enacted and be accompanied by a clear commitment by
the authorities to use senior creditor bail-in to resolve troubled
banks, Fitch would be likely to downgrade the bank's GSR to 'no
support'.
VR ADJUSTMENTS
The operating environment score of 'bb+' is below the 'bbb'
category implied score due to the following adjustment reason:
macroeconomic stability (negative).
The asset quality score of 'bb' is above the 'b & below' category
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: non-loan
exposure (positive).
The earnings and profitability score of 'bb+' is below the 'bbb'
category implied score due to the following adjustment reason:
historical and future metrics (negative).
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
ForteBank JSC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
ST IDR B Affirmed B
LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Natl LT A(kaz) Affirmed A(kaz)
Viability bb Affirmed bb
Government Support b- Affirmed b-
senior
unsecured LT BB Affirmed BB
junior
subordinated LT B- Affirmed B-
=================
L I T H U A N I A
=================
AKROPOLIS GROUP: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Akropolis Group, UAB's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also
affirmed Akropolis's senior unsecured rating at 'BB+' with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR4'.
Akropolis's ratings reflect its Baltics-focused EUR1.3 billion
income-producing portfolio concentrated mainly in five dominant
shopping centres (SCs) in Lithuania (A+/Stable) and Latvia
(A-/Stable), supplemented with a smaller portfolio that now
includes single-tenanted retail units, offices and mixed-use assets
following Akropolis's takeover of Galio Group (GG) in 2025. The
ratings are constrained by limited asset diversification, as
reflected in tenant and geographical concentration, although the
property portfolio benefits from inflation-linked rental uplifts,
which support stable cash flow.
Operating performance is robust, including low vacancies and
continued like-for-like (LFL) rent increases. Fitch forecasts
Akropolis's financial profile to stay strong with Fitch-calculated
(commercial property assets only) net debt/EBITDA of 5.2x-5.9x
during 2026-2029 (2025: annualised 5.5x).
Key Rating Drivers
GG Takeover: In September 2025, Akropolis took over GG, a
commercial and residential-for-sale developer active in Lithuania,
Latvia, Estonia and Poland. GG was bought from the related party
with the same ultimate beneficial owners as Akropolis. Its
operations include a portfolio of income-producing properties
(end-2025: 56 assets valued at EUR252 million, comprising
single-tenanted retail properties, offices, multi-use and
warehouses), supplemented by residential-for-sale development
activities. The acquisition was financed with Akropolis's own cash
and a new EUR110 million secured loan.
GG has its own secured debt at the special-purpose vehicle level,
backed by income-producing properties, and may use short-term
residential construction loans, which are repaid once development
is completed and units are delivered to customers.
Blended Group Leverage: The mix of residential-for-sale development
and commercial rental activity, after the GG acquisition, blends
two distinct risk profiles. Therefore, Fitch apportioned a 'BB+'
level of net debt to the projected residential-for-sale-derived
EBITDA, using 1.5x net debt/EBITDA, based on the current rating
level. The group's remaining debt is measured relative to the
rental income-derived EBITDA from commercial property rental
activity, making these metrics comparable with those of central and
eastern Europe (CEE) peers.
Strong Financial Structure: Fitch expects Akropolis's
rental-derived net debt/EBITDA to be 5.2x-5.9x during 2026-2029
(2025: annualised 5.5x), supported by rental indexation, net of
development capex on income-producing assets (including the Remarco
project launched by GG) and of the EUR90 million dividend paid in
2026. Fitch projects leverage to decline gradually as rents from
developments start to flow. Net interest coverage was 7.1x in 2025,
and Fitch expects 3.1x-3.4x during 2026-2029. Fitch-calculated
loan-to-value (LTV) increased to 45% at end-2025 (end-2024: 24%) as
a result of the GG acquisition. Akropolis's Vingis project is
delayed and not included in its forecasts.
Robust Portfolio Performance: In 2025, Akropolis's LFL rental
income rose by 4% (2024: 9%), mainly due to CPI indexation of about
2.3%. Occupancy increased to over 99% (end-2024: 98.3%), with only
Akropole Alfa in Riga, acquired in 2021, reporting occupancy below
the portfolio average. Its occupancy cost ratio is above the
portfolio average, reflecting the SC's ongoing optimisation. The
portfolio's weighted average lease term to earliest break, weighted
by gross leasable area, was 4.1 years at end-2025 (end-2024: 3.7).
The average indexation implemented by Akropolis in 2026 was about
3%, while Fitch expects average inflation of 5% in Lithuania and 4%
in Latvia in 2026, before easing in 2027.
Stable Customers Activity: Tenants' sales in the five flagship SCs
increased by 4% between 2024 and 2025. The occupancy cost ratio for
tenants remained stable at 11%, given similar LFL rental income
growth. About 44.4 million customers visited Akropolis's assets in
2025, slightly more than the previous year. Akropolis's assets
benefit from robust GDP dynamics in Lithuania and Latvia, forecast
at about 3% and 2%, respectively, as well as from growth in
household consumption. In Lithuania, private consumption might be
additionally supported by second-pillar pension withdrawals allowed
in 2026-2027.
Concentrated Portfolio: Akropolis's portfolio is concentrated with
five dominant SCs, totalling about EUR1.1 billion at end-2025. The
acquisition of GG provided some diversification, but the five SCs
still represent over 81% of the total portfolio (largest property,
Akropolis Vilnius: 26%). All income-producing assets are located in
the relatively small Baltics markets: Lithuania (about 60% by
value), Latvia (37%) and Estonia (3%). This also results in high
tenant concentration, with the top 10 tenant groups accounting for
41% of rental income, including 15% from VP Group. The tenant mix
includes well-known international brands represented through
franchisees.
Limited Independent Oversight: Akropolis's concentrated ownership
by the privately held VP Group results in financial disclosure and
corporate governance practices that are less transparent than those
typically seen at listed companies. In addition, the absence of
independent board members limits effective checks and balances,
which means that related-party transactions, including those
involving Maxima Group and affiliated tenants, are not subject to
the same level of independent review and scrutiny as publicly
listed peers.
PSL Assessment: Fitch now assesses VP Group's consolidated credit
profile at 'bb+', corresponding to Akropolis's Standalone Credit
Profile. Under its Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating
Criteria, the two credit profiles are the same. VP Group's credit
profile is driven by the robust financial profile of its largest
subsidiary, Maxima Grupe UAB, supported by Maxima's leading market
position in the Baltic states.
Peer Analysis
Akropolis's EUR1.3 billion income-producing, predominantly retail,
portfolio is similar in size to DL Invest Group PM S.A.'s (DLIG;
BB-/Positive) portfolio of EUR0.9 billion, which has higher
concentration on Poland (A-/Negative), but DLIG's portfolio
benefits from better asset-class diversification, with logistics
(67% of market value) supplemented with offices (24%) and retail
(9%).
The portfolios of NEPI Rockcastle N.V. (BBB+/Stable), valued at
EUR7.9 billion, Globalworth Real Estate Investments Limited
(BBB-/Stable) at EUR2.6 billion, and Globe Trade Centre S.A. (GTC;
B/Rating Watch Negative) at EUR2.3 billion, are bigger and more
diversified. GTC also benefits from diversification across asset
classes, including offices (50% of market value), retail (31%) and
residential-for-rent in Germany (19%).
Akropolis's end-2025 occupancy of 99.1% is comparable to NEPI's 99%
and higher than the 96% for GTC's and 97.4% for Supernova's retail
portfolios.
Akropolis has the most conservative financial profile; Fitch
expects net debt/EBITDA for its commercial rental activities to
remain no higher than 5.9x until 2029. However, its rating is
constrained by limited diversification by asset, tenant and
geography. Fitch expects Globalworth's net debt/EBITDA to be at
8.4x-8.7x during 2026-2029 and GTC's to be at least 12.5x until
2028. NEPI's financial profile is stronger, despite lower-yielding
assets at a net initial yield of 7.0%.
Fitch's Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- LFL rent increase of about 3% in 2026, followed by 2%-3.5%
annually in 2027-2029, predominantly due to CPI indexation,
supported with rental uplifts on renewals
- Stable occupancy of about 99%
- Capex of about EUR130 million until 2029, including EUR80 million
for new developments and EUR50 million for maintenance and
improvements
- Dividends of EUR90 million in 2026 and a total of EUR100 million
during 2027-2029, which will be commensurate with the maximum net
LTV of 45%
- Revenue from residential-for-sale development activities of about
EUR130 million in 2026-2029; EBITDA margin on residential-for-sale
activities averaging 28%
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bbb', Lower), access to capital ('bb+',
Moderate), liability profile ('bb', Moderate), property portfolio
('bb', Higher), rental income risk profile ('bbb-', Moderate),
profitability ('bbb', Moderate), financial structure ('bbb',
Moderate), and financial flexibility ('a-', Lower).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast year
2027.
The governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'bbb' has no impact.
The SCP is 'bb+'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Application of Fitch's PSL Rating Criteria results in an equalised
approach.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:
- Commercial rental activity net debt/EBITDA above 9.0x and LTV
trending above 55%
- Unencumbered assets/unsecured debt cover below 1.75x
- A 12-month liquidity score below 1.0x
- Transactions with related-parties that are detrimental to
Akropolis's interests
- Deterioration of the consolidated profile of VP Group or changes
in the group structure that can change the PSL approach
Factors that could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:
- Expansion of the portfolio in less correlated markets, while
maintaining portfolio quality
- Unencumbered assets/unsecured debt cover above 2.0x
- Commercial rental activity net debt/EBITDA below 8.5x
- A consistent interest-rate hedging policy
- Improved corporate governance
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, Akropolis had access to EUR112 million of readily
available cash after excluding EUR81 million posted to banks as
collateral. That comfortably covers the debt amortisation of EUR65
million in 2026, which Fitch expects will be partially extended or
refinanced. The next large repayment is the EUR120 million secured
term loan bullet in September 2027, which Fitch expects the company
will address comfortably before maturity.
Fitch expects EBITDA net interest cover to be at least 3.1x until
2029 (2025: 7.1x). Akropolis does not hedge the interest rate on
its secured term loans. The banking loans are secured on standing
or development assets of EUR797 million, resulting in an
unencumbered assets/unsecured debt ratio of 1.5x at end-2025.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Akropolis has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance
Structure, reflecting the lack of corporate governance attributes
to mitigate key-person risk from its dominant shareholder, Nerius
Numa, or to ensure independent oversight of related-party
transactions. This has a negative impact on the credit profile and
is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Akropolis Group, UAB LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed RR4 BB+
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S W I T Z E R L A N D
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RECIPHARM HOLDING: Moody's Assigns B2 CFR, Rates New Term Loan B2
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Moody's Ratings has assigned a B2 corporate family rating and a
B2-PD probability of default rating to Recipharm Holding GmbH
(Recipharm or the company), the top holding company of Recipharm's
restricted group. At the same time, Moody's have assigned B2
instrument ratings to the proposed EUR880 million backed senior
secured term loan B (TLB) due 2033 and the backed senior secured
revolving credit facility (RCF) with a maximum availability of
EUR200 million due 2033, both borrowed by Roar FinCo S.a r.l. The
outlook on all entities is stable.
Concurrently, Moody's have withdrawn the B3 CFR and B3-PD PDR of
Roar BidCo AB, the previous top entity of Recipharm's restricted
group. Moody's will withdraw the instrument ratings of the existing
senior secured facilities borrowed by Roar BidCo AB at closing of
the transaction.
Proceeds from the new term loan will be used to (i) fully refinance
the existing senior secured facilities at Roar BidCo AB, (ii) fund
a distribution to shareholders, (iii) repay a drawn portion of the
RCF, (iv) cover transaction fees and expenses, and (v) fund the
company's cash balance. The transaction represents the final step
of the separation between Recipharm and Bespak (the Advanced
Delivery Systems carved out in April 2024).
RATINGS RATIONALE
Recipharm's B2 rating reflects its position as one of the leading
integrated contract development and manufacturing organisations
(CDMOs), with a scaled and well-invested platform of 17 sites
across Europe, the US and India. The rating considers the
company's above-average size, broad product offering and good
technical capabilities, with good market shares in lyophilised,
blow-fill-seal (BFS) and highly potent drug product; its growing
exposure to biologics, the high barriers to entry in the CDMO
industry; and the company's strong track record of quality and
reliability, translating into low customer churn rates.
Recipharm's initial Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA of around
5.6x pro forma for the refinancing at year-end 2026 is well
positioned for the B2 rating.
However, the rating is constrained by the execution risk associated
with ramping up of commercial wins and increasing utilisation
across its manufacturing network (which operated at around 60%
utilisation in 2025, providing meaningful capacity headroom to
support future growth), and the risk of future debt-funded
acquisitions or additional shareholder distributions, which could
slow deleveraging. That said, Moody's expects Recipharm to
prioritise organic deleveraging over the next 12-18 months.
Moody's forecasts low single-digit revenue growth over the next
12-18 months, supported by the ongoing ramp-up of recent commercial
wins across all three segments, continued demand for specialised
capabilities in advanced biologics segment (which turned
EBITDA-positive in 2025) and continued mix improvement. Over the
same period, Moody's anticipates Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to
decline below 5.0x by 2027 and towards around 4.3x by 2028, with
Moody's-adjusted EBITA/interest expense increasing from around 2.2x
in 2026 to close to 2.9x in 2028, supported by a lower cost of debt
following the refinancing and continued operating leverage from the
streamlined platform.
Governance factors were key to the rating action, notably
Recipharm's financial policy, which demonstrates a tolerance for
leverage, as evidenced by the EUR118 million debt-funded
shareholder distribution as part of this refinancing, as well as
its concentrated ownership by EQT and co-investors.
Moody's have decided to withdraw the rating(s) for Moody's own
business reasons.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Recipharm
will maintain good operating performance, improve its
profitability, and maintain at least adequate liquidity and
interest coverage. The outlook assumes that management will not
embark on any significant debt-funded acquisitions or dividend
recapitalizations.
LIQUIDITY
Recipharm's liquidity is adequate. It is supported by around EUR43
million of cash pro forma the refinancing, a fully undrawn EUR200
million senior secured RCF (6.5-year tenor), and a EUR150 million
factoring facility (of which around EUR78 million is drawn).
Liquidity also benefits from the absence of any debt amortisation
on the new TLB, which is a bullet instrument maturing in seven
years, and from Moody's expectations of positive Moody's-adjusted
free cash flow generation over the next 12–18 months.
The new RCF includes a springing senior secured net leverage
covenant, tested only when the facility is drawn above a specified
threshold. Moody's expects Recipharm to maintain significant
capacity against this test, if tested.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2 ratings on the new EUR880 million senior secured TLB and the
new EUR200 million senior secured RCF, in line with the CFR,
reflect their pari passu ranking in the capital structure and the
absence of any material layer of loss-absorbing debt. Both
facilities benefit from a customary senior secured security and 80%
guarantor coverage. The B2-PD PDR, in line with the CFR, reflects
Moody's assumptions of a 50% family recovery rate, consistent with
a covenant-lite capital structure comprising bank debt only.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive rating pressure could arise if Recipharm's
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA is maintained below 5.0x on a
sustained basis; its Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt trends towards high
single digit percentage and its Moody's-adjusted EBITA/interest
expense increases towards 3x; and it maintains good operating
performance and at least adequate liquidity.
Downward rating pressure could emerge if Recipharm's Moody's
adjusted leverage rises toward 6.0x; if profitability and cash flow
generation weaken; or if liquidity deteriorates, including a
decline in Moody's adjusted EBITA to interest coverage below 2.0x.
Rating pressure could also result from debt funded acquisitions
that weaken credit metrics or there is evidence of more aggressive
financial policies.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in February 2026.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Zug (Switzerland) and owned by EQT together with
co-investors, Recipharm is a leading global pharmaceutical contract
development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO), providing
services globally to pharmaceutical and biotech companies across
three segments: Oral Dosages, Sterile Fill Finish and Advanced
Biologics. The group operates 17 manufacturing sites across Europe,
the US and India, serves more than 400 customers in over 100
countries, and employs c.4,500 people worldwide. In fiscal year
2025, Recipharm generated net sales of EUR837 million and
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of EUR192 million (23% margin).
===========
T U R K E Y
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AKBANK TAS: Moody's Affirms Ba3 LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed Akbank T.A.S.' (Akbank) long-term and
short-term bank deposit ratings of Ba3 and NP respectively. Moody's
also affirmed the long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) and
Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment of the bank of Ba3 and Ba3(cr)
respectively, as well as the short-term CRRs and CR Assessment of
NP and NP(cr) respectively, and senior unsecured foreign-currency
rating of Ba3. At the same time, Moody's affirmed the bank's
Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA of b1. The
outlook on the bank's long-term bank deposit and senior unsecured
ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Akbank's BCA at b1 reflects Moody's expectations
of continued asset quality pressures, reflected in a nonperforming
loan ratio of 3.5% as of March 2026, driven by the bank's notable
exposure to retail loans whose repayment capacity is likely to
remain constrained by the persistently high inflation and interest
rates environment amid a slower disinflation process.
The b1 BCA reflects Moody's expectations that the recovery in
Akbank's core net interest margins and core profitability
normalization will remain constrained as inflation remains
elevated, funding costs remain high and macroprudential caps
continue to limit loan growth. Nevertheless, Moody's expects
overall profitability to remain sound, as reflected in an
annualized net income to tangible assets ratio of 2.1% during the
first three months of 2026, supported by strong customer-driven fee
and commission income, active balance sheet management, and income
from investment securities, which continue to support the build-up
of loss-absorption buffers.
At the same time, these challenges are expected to remain balanced
by Akbank's sound loan loss provisioning buffers; with a reported
specific Stage 3 coverage of 65.6% as of March 2026, solid capital
buffers above regulatory minima; reflected in a tangible common
equity (TCE) ratio of 11.9%, predominantly deposit funded balance
sheet and ample liquidity buffers reflected in core banking
liquidity accounting for 20% of tangible banking assets during the
same period.
LONG-TERM RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Akbank's long-term deposit and senior unsecured
ratings at Ba3 reflects the bank's b1 BCA and Moody's continued
assessment of a high probability of support from the Government of
Turkiye (Ba3 stable) which results in a one-notch uplift. Moody's
assessments of a high probability of support is underpinned by
Akbank's importance to the Turkish banking system, as reflected in
its market shares of deposits and loans.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on Akbank's long-term deposit and senior
unsecured ratings reflects Moody's expectations that weakening
asset quality and profitability over the next 12-18 months will
remain balanced by stable capital and liquidity buffers.
The stable outlook on the long-term deposit and senior unsecured
ratings also considers the stable outlook on the Government of
Turkiye.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Akbank's ratings could be upgraded if the bank's solvency profile
improves, demonstrated in improved asset quality metrics, sustained
recovery in core margins and a more sustainable profitability
profile.
Akbank's ratings could be downgraded if (1) the bank's solvency and
funding profile deteriorate beyond anticipated asset quality and
profitability weakening; (2) the authorities revert to unorthodox
policies that weaken operating conditions; and/or (3) Turkiye's
sovereign rating of Ba3 is downgraded.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
Akbank T.A.S.' "Assigned BCA" score of b1 is set two notches below
the "Financial Profile" initial score of ba2 to reflect the
issuer's exposure to high-risk loan segments including retail
borrowers and pressured profitability.
ODEA BANK: Moody's Affirms 'B1' LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the long/short-term local- and
foreign-currency deposit ratings of Odea Bank A.S. (Odea) at B1/NP
as well as the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) at b3 and
Adjusted BCA at b1. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed Odea's local-
and foreign currency long/short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings at
Ba3/NP as well as the bank's long/short-term Counterparty Risk
Assessments at Ba3(cr)/NP(cr). At the same time, the bank's
foreign-currency subordinate debt rating has been affirmed at
B3(hyb). The bank's long/short-term National Scale deposit and
Counterparty Risk Ratings have been affirmed at Aa3.tr/TR-1 and
Aaa.tr/TR-1, respectively. The outlook on the bank's long-term
deposit ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA AFFIRMATION
Odea's b3 BCA affirmation reflects the bank's narrow but evolving
business profile following an ownership change. At this level, the
bank's standalone assessment captures sound funding and liquidity
as well as improved asset quality - albeit remaining vulnerable in
the current operating context - balanced against modest, but
improving, capitalization and profitability. The affirmation also
reflects Moody's expectations that Türkiye's operating environment
will continue to gradually normalize as authorities stay committed
to orthodox monetary policy and pursue disinflation, supporting
more predictable operating conditions for banks.
Odea's asset quality has continued to improve, with the problem
loan ratio declining to 2.0% as of March 2026 (3.7% in 2025),
supported by strong recoveries and limited formation of new
nonperforming loans. Nevertheless, Moody's expects asset quality to
soften moderately over the next 12-18 months, in line with the
Turkish banking system, amid higher-for-longer interest rates and
still-elevated inflation. Moody's notes however that given the
bank's low retail and SME exposure, this softening will be limited.
The b3 BCA remains constrained by the bank's weak, albeit
improving, profitability. After five consecutive quarters of
loss-making operations due to elevated funding costs, compressed
margins and high operating expenses, Odea returned to net
profitability during the first quarter of 2026 (net income at 0.7%
of tangible assets) from a recovered net interest margin. This was
enabled by ordinary support from the bank's new shareholder Abu
Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC (ADQ) (Aa2 Stable) through
fresh capital injections of around $150 million during 2025 that
allowed Odea to resume asset growth. In turn, the bank's reported
Common Equity Tier 1 regulatory capital ratio increased to 11.3% in
2025 (6.8% in 2024) before easing to 8.0% as of March 2026 due to
the removal of regulatory forbearance on the calculation of
foreign-currency risk-weighted assets. Moody's notes that
capitalization remains susceptible to Turkish lira depreciation
because of the bank's relatively high foreign-currency asset
exposure. Still, over the next 12 to 18 months Moody's expects
Odea's capital position to remain supported by its parent.
The BCA affirmation also captures Odea's sound liquidity profile
and deposit-based funding structure underpinned by a comfortable
loan-to-deposit position at 69.0% as of March 2026. Core banking
liquidity represented a sound 20.7% of tangible banking assets as
of March 2026, while the bank's regulatory Liquidity Coverage Ratio
(LCR) and foreign-currency LCR were at strong levels of 114% and
368%, respectively, as of the same period. These strengths provide
meaningful protection against potential market or funding shocks.
ADJUSTED BCA AND DEPOSIT RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Odea's Adjusted BCA at b1, two notches higher
than the bank's BCA of b3, is underpinned by Moody's assumptions of
a high probability of affiliate support from the bank's owner -
ADQ. Moody's support assessment is underpinned by ADQ's ownership
of Odea, the bank's strategic importance for ADQ, and ADQ's
demonstrated willingness to support the bank, including through
capital injections.
The affirmation of Odea's long-term deposit ratings at B1 reflects
the bank's Adjusted BCA of b1 and Moody's continued assessment of a
low likelihood of support from the Government of Turkiye (Ba3,
stable). This results in no uplift for the bank's rated deposits,
and the low probability of government support reflects the bank's
relatively smaller position in the Turkish banking system.
STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on Odea's long-term deposit ratings reflects
Moody's expectations that strong liquidity, modest recourse to
less-stable funds and high loan provisions against asset risk will
remain stable while capitalization and profitability, albeit
improving, will remain relatively moderate. The stable outlook also
considers the stable outlook on the Government of Turkiye.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Odea's ratings could be upgraded if (1) the bank maintains solid or
improving financial fundamentals that also hinge upon the
implementation of a balanced growth strategy to strengthen
profitability while maintaining strong internal capital generation
and asset quality; and (2) operating conditions improve further
with inflation declining materially faster than expected.
Odea's ratings could be downgraded if 1) the bank's solvency and
funding profile deteriorates from current levels; and (2) the
authorities revert to unorthodox policies.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
QNB BANK: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' Long Term Deposit Rating
--------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed QNB Bank A.S.' (QNB Bank)
long-term/short-term foreign and local-currency deposit ratings of
Ba2/NP and Ba1/NP respectively, as well as the bank's long-term
foreign-currency senior unsecured rating of Ba2. Moody's also
affirmed QNB Bank's long-term/short-term foreign-currency and
local-currency Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) of Ba2/NP and
Ba1/NP respectively, as well as their long-term/short-term
Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessments of Ba1(cr)/NP(cr). QNB Bank's
long-term foreign-currency senior unsecured, deposit rating and CRR
are constrained by Turkiye's foreign-currency country ceiling at
Ba2. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed QNB Bank's foreign-currency
subordinated debt rating at Ba3(hyb) as well as their
foreign-currency and local-currency Global Medium Term Note (GMTN)
program ratings of (P)Ba2 and (P)Ba1 respectively. At the same
time, Moody's affirmed QNB Bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA)
of b1 and Adjusted BCA of ba1. The outlook on the bank's long-term
bank deposit and senior unsecured ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of QNB Bank's BCA at b1 reflects Moody's
expectations that asset quality challenges will persist for retail
borrowers and small and medium-sized enterprises as a result of the
persistently high inflation and interest rate environment amid a
slower disinflation process. For QNB Bank this is reflected in a
nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio of 3.9% as of March 2026, given
their considerable exposures to retail borrowers at around half of
the loan book.
The b1 BCA also reflects Moody's expectations that the recovery in
QNB Bank's core net interest margin and core profitability will
remain slow as elevated funding costs and macroprudential loan
growth caps continue to constrain core earnings generation and loan
growth. Elevated asset quality challenges will also weigh on
bottom-line earnings growth. Nevertheless, Moody's expects QNB
Bank's overall profitability to remain sound, supported by strong
fee and commission income amid a higher interest rate environment
and income from investment securities including inflation-indexed
securities. As reflected in an annualized net income-to-tangible
assets ratio of 3.1% during the first quarter of 2026, QNB Bank's
profitability continues to support the build-up of loss-absorbing
buffers.
Nevertheless, these challenges remain balanced by QNB Bank's solid
loss-absorbing capacity, reflected in specific stage 3
nonperforming loan coverage of 74.9% as of March 2026 and capital
buffers above regulatory requirements; as indicated by a tangible
common equity ratio of 10.7%. The bank also benefits from a
primarily deposit-funded balance sheet and ample liquidity buffers,
equivalent to 22.3% of tangible banking assets which mitigates its
higher recourse to less stable funding relative to peers at 38.6%
of tangible banking assets.
ADJUSTED BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of QNB Bank's Adjusted BCA at ba1 continues to
incorporate a three-notch uplift from the bank's b1 BCA which
reflects Moody's assumptions of a very high probability of support
from the parent Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) (QNB, Aa3 stable,
baa1 BCA) given QNB's near 100% ownership of QNB Bank, the bank's
strategic importance to the group and its strong brand
integration.
RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of QNB Bank's long-term foreign-currency and
local-currency bank deposit ratings at Ba2 and Ba1 respectively,
and its long-term foreign-currency senior unsecured rating at Ba2
reflects the bank's Adjusted BCA of ba1 and Moody's continued
assessment of a low likelihood of support from the Government of
Turkiye (Ba3 stable). Consequently, the ratings receive no uplift
from government support.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on QNB Bank's long-term bank deposit and senior
unsecured ratings reflects Moody's expectations that asset quality
challenges and slower profitability normalization will weigh on the
bank's solvency profile over the next 12 to 18 months. However,
this will remain balanced by the bank's solid loss-absorbing
buffers, stable funding and sound liquidity buffers.
The stable outlook on the long-term bank deposit and senior
unsecured ratings also considers the stable outlook on QNB's - the
bank's parental support provider - long-term deposit ratings and
the Government of Turkiye.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
QNB Bank's ratings could be upgraded if (1) the bank's fundamentals
improve materially, demonstrated in lower problem loans and a
sustained recovery and normalization of core-profitability toward
long-term averages.
QNB Bank's ratings could be downgraded if (1) the bank's solvency
and funding profile deteriorate beyond anticipated asset quality
and profitability weakening amid a slower disinflation process; (2)
the authorities revert to unorthodox policies that weaken operating
conditions; and/or (3) Turkiye's sovereign rating of Ba3 is
downgraded.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
RONESANS HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ronesans Holding A.S.'s Long-Term
Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B+'
with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed Ronesans' senior
unsecured debt rating at 'B+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'.
Fitch has also assigned Ronesans's core construction and
infrastructure subsidiary, Ronesans Altyapi Sistemleri Anonim
Serketi, Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency IDRs at 'B+' with a
Stable Outlook. This action reflects bondholders' agreement to move
the USD425 million bond due 2029 to Ronesans Altyapi from Ronesans
Holding. The bond remains guaranteed by most of the companies
within the restricted borrowing group as before, in addition to a
guarantee from the previous issuer, Ronesans.
There have been no other changes to the terms and conditions of the
notes.
The Stable Outlook reflects its expectation of Ronesans' and its
subsidiary's continued delivery of its growing construction backlog
offset by delivery risk on its large concession projects,
benefitting from sound regional diversification and strong margins
compared with other rated engineering and construction companies.
Key Rating Drivers
Large Investments Increase Business Risk: Ronesans' substantial
equity investments in large infrastructure and public-private
partnership projects over the next two years are proceeding as
planned. High operational and delivery risk, alongside its
organisational complexity, are offset by considerable construction
income during the build phase, with favourable margins. Fitch
expects the company to make about EUR700 million of cumulative
equity payments for the ongoing investments by 2027 when they are
expected to commence operations, of which EUR170 million remained
to be paid as of year end 2025 offset by cash holdings.
Ronesans' business risk will increase until the projects are
completed and operational due to the delivery risk associated with
their construction. Any extraordinary support from the company for
the projects - in the event of delays, cost overruns or operational
underperformance - could lead to a full consolidation of the equity
investments on its balance sheet and financial statement, which
would have a negative rating effect. Fitch expects Ronesans'
consolidated negative free cash flow (FCF) for 2025 to reverse in
2026 and beyond as dividends from the projects are received.
FX/Inflation Risks Mitigated: Ronesans' business profile is
supported by the diversification of revenue into euros and US
dollars through its ownership of Ballast Nedam and other
non-Turkish construction contracts. In 2025, hard-currency revenues
(dollars or euros) rose slightly to 46% of the total. A further 42%
of revenue is hard currency linked to inflation and FX escalators,
mitigating the risks of operating in Turkiye, which remains
affected by historical hyper-inflation and a historically
depreciating Turkish lira.
Fitch expects Turkiye-based projects to represent 60%-70% of
revenue, which will moderately increase business risk. However,
nearly all of Ronesans' new lira-denominated construction contracts
are linked to hard currencies or inflation. The cost and revenue
risks resulting from hyperinflation are also mitigated by higher
EBITDA margins on construction activity in Turkiye than in Europe.
Stronger Margins Reflect Higher Risks: Fitch forecasts consolidated
EBITDA margins at 13% for 2026 and beyond reflecting stronger
overall performance, but expect Ronesans' Ballast Nedam, its
EU-based engineering and construction business, to have lower
margins and a steady order backlog, reflecting its smaller,
lower-risk projects, including those for local authorities. Ballast
Nedam generates consistent hard-currency-based revenues and EBITDA,
contributing to nearly 40% of revenue generated outside Turkiye.
Substantial Hard-Currency Liquidity: Ronesans' substantial dollar
and euro cash balances and cash pooling for core construction
operations substantially offset liquidity and funding risks.
Dividend payments and large increases in investments offset the
increase in EBITDA. However, cash remained strong at TRY68.75
billion-equivalent at end- 2025 (EUR1,359 million). About 80% of
cash is held in hard currencies in offshore non-Turkish banks.
Similar to E&C peers, Fitch views part of Ronesans' cash balance
(1.5% of revenue) as restricted for working capital swings. Fitch
expects Ronesans to maintain cash balances of about EUR 1 billion
going forward.
Investment Commitments Pressure Leverage: Ronesans' EBITDA gross
leverage at end-2025 rose to 3.5x, in line with Fitch's
expectations, but still above the 3.0x negative rating sensitivity.
This also reflects its investments in non-recourse concessions and
its USD425 million five-year bond due 2029, increased by a USD75
million tap in 2025. Fitch expects leverage to remain at 3.0x-3.5x
for 2026 and 2027 before falling steadily to below 3x in 2027. The
improvement will be driven by construction cash flow from the
concession build phase, followed by increased dividend inflows from
2027.
Acquisitions and Divestments Simplify Structure: Ronesans' sale of
its IVF investment company, combined with the sell-down of GIC
Partners' stake in real estate subsidiary, Ronesans Gayrimenkul
Yatirim A.S. (BB-/Stable) results in a simplified business model,
with greater control over the real estate company. Fitch expects
Ronesans' divisional restructuring to result in clearer reporting
of company performance and divisional profitability. Fitch also
expects Ronesans Altyapi Sistemleri Anonim Serketi to undertake an
IPO in the coming months.
Peer Analysis
Ronesans is similar in size to Webuild S.p.A. (BB+/Stable), and in
revenue to Kier Group Plc (BB+/Positive). Fitch expects the former
to maintain similar gross leverage to Webuild, at over 3x at
end-2025. However, Ronesans is constrained by its exposure to
Turkiye and additional risks relating to its concession
developments.
Ronesans has a lower exposure to large customers than Webuild. Most
of Ronesans' contract counterparties in Turkiye are linked to, or
are departments of, the Turkish government, similar to Kier that
largely contracts with the UK government under framework
agreements. Kier and Ronesans are largely protected from cost
inflation under their contracts as part of a comprehensive
risk-sharing arrangement.
Ronesans has a smaller committed backlog than Webuild and Kier, but
this is offset by the smaller contract size in its European
operations and numerous small infrastructure projects with the
Dutch government. The former has a slightly weaker business profile
than Webuild, as its superior diversification is offset by its
exposure to the weaker Turkish operating environment, but they
share a similar financial profile. Ronesans has large asset
ownership compared with Webuild and Keir, through its 72.8% stake
in Ronesans Gayrimenkul Yatirim A.S. (BB-/Stable).
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- EUR/TRY60 at end-2026 and EUR/TRY69.4 at end-2027, in line with
Fitch's Global Economic Outlook
- Cumulative equity contribution to new concessions and joint
ventures of EUR700 million by 2027, of which EUR530 million was
already paid at year end December 2025.
- Consolidated EBITDA margin of 13% in 2026 and 2027, reflecting
the order backlog
- Dividend distribution to shareholders of EUR50 million a year
from 2026
- Capex at 3.5% of revenue
- Most contracts indexed to inflation in Turkiye at specified euro
and dollar exchange rates or paid in hard currencies
- Net working capital needs average about 1.5% of revenue
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bb+', Lower), sector characteristics
('b', Moderate), market and competitive positioning ('bb',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('bb-', Higher),
company operational characteristics ('b+', Moderate), profitability
('b+', Moderate), financial structure ('b+', Higher), and financial
flexibility ('b+', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical
year 2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast
year 2027.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and has no impact.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'bb+' has no impact.
The SCP is 'b+'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR: Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP,
resulting in an IDR of 'B+'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that Ronesans would be deemed a going
concern (GC) in bankruptcy and that it would be reorganised rather
than liquidated.
- Its GC value available for creditor claims is estimated at about
TRY31.3 billion, assuming GC EBITDA of TRY8.7 billion
- GC EBITDA assumed a failure by Ronesans to generate positive FCF
due to poor performance of construction contracts. The assumption
also reflects corrective measures taken in reorganisation to offset
the adverse conditions that trigger its default
- A 10% administrative claim is assumed
- An enterprise value multiple of 4.0x is applied to GC EBITDA to
calculate a post-reorganisation enterprise value. The multiple is
based on the company's core engineering and construction operations
and is aligned with its peers'
- Fitch estimates the amount of senior debt claims at TRY55.9
billion, not including debt at the Ronesans Gayrimenkul Yatirim
A.S. level that is ring-fenced from Ronesans
- These assumptions suggest a recovery rate for the senior
unsecured instrument within the 'RR3' range, but limitations on
Recovery Ratings in Turkiye constrain this to 'RR4', corresponding
to the company's Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR of 'B+'
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA gross leverage above 3x
- EBITDA interest coverage below 2.5x
- Increasing proportion of EBITDA generated in the lira versus
euro
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA gross leverage below 2.5x
- EBITDA interest coverage greater than 3x
- Maintenance of neutral-to-positive FCF
- EBITDA contribution from non-Turkish hard-currency operations at
a minimum 50% of total profitability
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, Ronesans had strong liquidity in the form of large
cash balances and term deposits of nearly TRY69 billion (EUR1,360
million), providing at least 2x coverage of upcoming maturities and
offsetting equity investments committed for new concession and
industrial projects. Fitch expects overall funding needs in 2026 to
be modest, at about TRY8.8 billion (EUR150 million).
Fitch expects FCF to turn positive in 2026, and with no further
funding for existing projects required beyond 2027, at which point
Fitch expects the concessions to become cash-generative. Fitch
expects Ronesans to maintain cash balances of about EUR1 billion
(TRY 53.7 billion) going forward. Ronesans does not have a
committed liquidity facility but has relationships with a broad
range of local banks, project financing for its concession
businesses in addition to its USD425 million bond maturing in
2029.
Issuer Profile
Ronesans Holding A.S is a Turkiye-domiciled Europe and Middle
East-focused Engineering and Construction company, with 72.8%
ownership of Turkiye-based real estate owner Ronesans Gayrimenkul
Yatirim A.S (BB-/Stable), and minority and majority interests in a
range of energy, transport and healthcare concessions.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Ronesans.
ESG Considerations
Ronesans Holding A.S. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Group
Structure due to complexity of its subsidiary holdings and funding
structure which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is
relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Ronesans
Holding A.S. LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
LC LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
senior
unsecured LT B+ Affirmed RR4 B+
Ronesans Altyapi
Sistemleri Anonim
Sirketi LT IDR B+ New Rating
LC LT IDR B+ New Rating
T.C. ZIRAAT: Moody's Affirms Ba3 LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the long/short-term local- and
foreign-currency deposit ratings of T.C. Ziraat Bankasi A.S.
(Ziraat Bank) at Ba3/NP as well as the bank's Baseline Credit
Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA at ba3. Concurrently, Moody's
affirmed Ziraat Bank's long/short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings at
Ba2/NP as well as the bank's long/short-term Counterparty Risk
Assessments at Ba2(cr)/NP(cr). At the same time, the bank's local-
and foreign-currency senior unsecured MTN program ratings have been
affirmed at (P)Ba3 while its local- and foreign-currency other
short term ratings have been affirmed at (P)NP. Also, Ziraat Bank's
foreign-currency senior unsecured and preferred stock
non-cumulative debt ratings have been affirmed at Ba3 and B3(hyb),
respectively. The outlook on the bank's long-term deposit and
senior unsecured debt ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Ziraat Bank's ba3 BCA reflects the bank's
resilient standalone credit profile underpinned by its leading
domestic franchise - particularly in the strategic subsidized
agricultural lending segment - that drives strong and historically
resilient asset quality and solid profitability. The BCA also
incorporates the moderating operating conditions in Türkiye in
line with the authorities' undeterred commitment to orthodox
macroeconomic policies and disinflation efforts.
Despite a slower disinflation process amid tight monetary policy
and still elevated inflation, the bank's asset quality, although
weakening, remains relatively contained with a low stock of problem
loans at 2.0% of gross loans as of March 2026. Although Ziraat Bank
has high exposure to SMEs, the bank exhibits a high level of
provisioning coverage (129.8% as of March 2026). While Moody's
expects some normalization in asset quality metrics over the next
12-18 months as higher-for-longer interest rates continue to
pressure some borrowers, Ziraat Bank's diversified loan portfolio
will moderate the inflow to problem loans and strong reserve
buffers will provide protection against credit deterioration.
The ba3 BCA also reflects Ziraat Bank's moderate capitalization,
with tangible common equity representing 9.7% of risk-weighted
assets as of March 2026. Unchanged macroprudential caps on loan
growth will continue to contain risk-weighted assets growth while
sound profitability along with modest dividends will sustain steady
internal capital generation.
The BCA is also supported by the bank's solid profitability, with
annualized return on tangible assets of 2.1% for the first quarter
of 2026. Earnings have benefited from strong net interest income
generation, resilient fee income, improved operating efficiency and
a lower-than-average cost of risk given a more resilient loan
quality profile. Profitability is expected to moderate from recent
peaks as inflation declines and non-recurring trading income
normalizes.
Ziraat Bank's funding profile benefits from its large and granular
deposit franchise, which provides a stable source of funding and
supports its leading market position within the Turkish banking
system. The bank continues to demonstrate strong access to domestic
and international wholesale funding markets while its strong
liquidity further supports the BCA with core banking liquidity at
23.7% of tangible banking assets as of March 2026.
DEPOSIT RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Ziraat Bank's long-term deposit ratings at Ba3
reflects the bank's BCA of ba3 and Moody's continued assessment of
a very high probability of support from the Government of Turkiye
(Ba3, stable). This results in no uplift for the bank's rated
deposits and senior unsecured debt as the bank's ba3 BCA is at the
same level as Türkiye's long-term issuer ratings of Ba3.
STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on Ziraat Bank's long-term deposit and senior
unsecured ratings reflects Moody's expectations of asset quality
softening and moderating profitability amid a slower disinflation
process that will remain balanced by stable loan provisions and
capital buffers. The stable outlook also considers the stable
outlook on the Government of Turkiye.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Ziraat Bank's ratings could be upgraded if (1) Türkiye's sovereign
rating of Ba3 is upgraded as the bank's BCA is already at the
sovereign rating level; and (2) the bank maintains its solid
fundamentals unchanged.
Ziraat Bank's ratings could be downgraded if 1) the bank's solvency
and funding profile deteriorates beyond anticipated asset quality
and profitability weakening; (2) the authorities revert to
unorthodox policies which could lead to challenging operating
conditions; and/or (3) Türkiye's sovereign rating of Ba3 is
downgraded.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
TURKIYE GARANTI: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the long/short-term local- and
foreign-currency deposit ratings of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.
(Garanti BBVA) at Ba2/NP as well as the bank's Baseline Credit
Assessment (BCA) at ba3 and Adjusted BCA at ba2. Concurrently,
Moody's affirmed Garanti BBVA's local- and foreign-currency
long/short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings at Ba1/NP and Ba2/NP,
respectively, as well as the bank's long/short-term Counterparty
Risk Assessments at Ba1(cr)/NP(cr). At the same time, the bank's
foreign-currency senior unsecured MTN program rating has been
affirmed at (P)Ba2 while its foreign-currency other short term
rating has been affirmed at (P)NP. Also, Garanti BBVA's
foreign-currency subordinate debt rating has been affirmed at
B1(hyb). The bank's long/short-term National Scale deposit and
Counterparty Risk Ratings have been affirmed at Aaa.tr/TR-1. The
outlook on the bank's long-term deposit ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Garanti BBVA's ba3 BCA reflects the bank's
resilient standalone credit profile, supported by strong
profitability, robust risk management, solid capitalization, and
strong funding and liquidity. This is balanced by Moody's
expectations of sustained increase in problem loans for Turkish
banks. It also takes into account the bank's established domestic
franchise, diversified business model and prudent underwriting
standards.
The BCA affirmation also incorporates Moody's expectations that
higher-for-longer interest rates and still-elevated inflation will
continue to pressure borrowers' repayment capacity. In turn,
Moody's expects asset quality deterioration for Garanti BBVA
(problem loans at 3.2% of gross loans as of March 2026). Although
problem loans are expected to increase over the next 12-18 months
given a sizeable exposure to the higher risk retail segment, the
bank's conservative risk management framework, diversified
corporate loan portfolio and sizeable reserve buffers should
continue to mitigate the impact of asset quality deterioration.
The ba3 BCA further reflects strong profitability, with annualized
return on tangible assets of 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026.
While profitability is expected to normalize from the exceptionally
strong levels seen in recent years as inflation declines, trading
income moderates and funding costs remain elevated, Moody's expects
Garanti BBVA to continue generating higher than average margins and
solid earnings from a favorable balance sheet structure supported
by its strong franchise, leading payments business and recurring
fee income generation. Also, the bank's capital position remains
sound despite sensitivity to exchange-rate movements and compares
favorably to peers with tangible common equity at 11.6% of risk
weighted assets as of March 2026.
Garanti BBVA's BCA affirmation is also underpinned by the bank's
strong funding and liquidity profile primarily supported by
customer deposits, with limited recourse to less-stable funds
relative to peers (19.5% of tangible banking assets as of March
2026) while core banking liquidity remains sound (22.8%).
ADJUSTED BCA AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Garanti BBVA's Adjusted BCA at ba2, one notch
higher than the bank's BCA of ba3, is underpinned by Moody's
assumptions of a moderate probability of affiliate support from the
bank's majority parent Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA)
(A1 long-term deposits, stable, baa1 BCA). This reflects Garanti
BBVA's strategic importance for BBVA which has majority ownership
(85.97%) and full management control of Garanti BBVA.
DEPOSIT RATINGS AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of Garanti BBVA's long-term deposit ratings at Ba2
reflects the bank's Adjusted BCA of ba2 and Moody's continued
assessment of a high probability of support from the Government of
Turkiye (Ba3, stable). This results in no uplift for the bank's
rated deposits as the bank's ba2 Adjusted BCA is above Türkiye's
long-term issuer ratings of Ba3.
STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on Garanti BBVA's long-term deposit ratings
reflects expectations of weakening asset quality and profitability,
amid a slower disinflation process, balanced by stable liquidity
and a higher-than-average capital buffer. The stable outlook also
considers the stable outlook on the long-term deposit, issuer and
senior unsecured ratings of BBVA – the bank's parental support
provider and the Government of Turkiye.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Garanti BBVA's ratings could be upgraded if the bank's financial
fundamentals improve materially from lower problem loans and a
sustained recovery and normalization of core profitability toward
long-term averages.
Garanti BBVA's ratings could be downgraded if (1) the bank's
solvency and funding profile deteriorates beyond anticipated asset
quality and profitability weakening; (2) the authorities revert to
unorthodox policies; and/or (3) Türkiye's sovereign rating of Ba3
is downgraded.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
=============
U K R A I N E
=============
DTEK RENEWABLES: Fitch Affirms 'CC' Long-Term IDRs
--------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed DTEK Renewables B.V.'s (DTEK RES)
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs)
at 'CC'. Fitch has also affirmed DTEK Renewables Finance B.V.'s
senior unsecured rating at 'CC' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'.
The ratings reflect material debt refinancing risks, stemming from
capital control restrictions imposed by the National Bank of
Ukraine (NBU), the ongoing war in Ukraine, record of distressed
debt exchanges (DDEs), and DTEK RES's limited access to
international capital markets. Therefore, it remains uncertain at
this stage whether its EUR281 million unsecured green bonds due in
November 2027 will be refinanced or restructured.
DTEK RES's expanded asset base and higher EBITDA following large
capex in 2025 have helped reduce leverage. The company has
sufficient liquidity for coupon payments in the next 12 months.
Key Rating Drivers
High Refinancing Risk: Fitch believes visibility is limited on
whether the company will be able to arrange refinancing of the
bonds ahead of maturity in November 2027, with funds that are
subject to the NBU exchange controls. DTEK RES has a record of
DDEs, most recently in 2024, when the green bonds' maturity was
extended by three years to avoid a probable default. This,
alongside high refinancing risk, is reflected in the 'CC' rating.
As of end-June 2026 DTEK RES has sufficient cash, held in Ukraine
and abroad, for debt service over the next 12 months, including
bond coupon payments of about EUR12 million each in November 2026
and May 2027.
Relaxed Moratorium on FX Payments: NBU relaxed the moratorium on
cross-border foreign-currency (FC) payments in 2024 and 2026,
allowing companies to purchase FC and send cash abroad via
dividends to service coupon payment of bonds issued abroad, and
principal repayment under certain conditions. Since 14 January
2026, NBU has also allowed repayment of external debt incurred
before 20 June 2023, subject to refinancing with new external debt
and compliance with applicable conditions. These restrictions,
although relaxed, continue to limit DTEK RES's ability to repay or
refinance the bonds.
Rising EBITDA: DTEK RES's performance in 2025 was better than Fitch
projected, with EBITDA of EUR90 million versus its forecast of
EUR80 million. Fitch has revised up its EBITDA projections for
2026-2028 to reflect the full- year impact of the battery energy
storage (BESS) commissioned in September 2025 and the Tiligulska
Wind Power Plant II project to be fully commissioned by end-2026.
Fitch forecasts an improvement in EBITDA to about EUR165 million in
2026 and to EUR200 million annually in 2027-2028, once Tiligulska
II is fully operational.
Battery Storage Supports EBITDA Generation: In September 2025, DTEK
RES commissioned its 200MW battery energy storage system at a total
cost of EUR140 million. Fitch expects the project to support EBITDA
generation from 2026, with annual EBITDA of about EUR40 million in
the near term. Revenue visibility is strong, with over 70% of
capacity contracted under a five-year agreement with Ukrenergo at a
fixed euro-linked tariff (EUR25-28 per MWh), while the remaining
capacity is to be sold on the market.
Expansion of Tiligulska Plant: Tiligulska II plant project remains
on track for commissioning by end-2026. Fitch expects the 384MW
project to generate close to EUR110 million annual EBITDA from
2027, with all output sold on the market. The project is financed
with EUR370 million non-recourse debt, guaranteed by the Export and
Investment Fund of Denmark. Financing is secured on project assets,
with no guarantee from DTEK RES.
Lower Exposure to Guaranteed Buyer: Fitch assumes that Tiligulska
II will sell electricity to the market, reducing the offtake share
of Guaranteed Buyer SE to only about 30% of the energy generated by
DTEK RES, from about 70% in 2025. Under its rating case, Fitch
assumes settlements from Guaranteed Buyer to average 85% of the
amounts due, owing to unstable conditions in the Ukrainian power
market. Payment discipline from the guaranteed buyer improved in
2025, with collections for electricity supplied reaching 96% at end
of the year and 99% currently.
Decline in Leverage: Its rating case forecasts funds from
operations (FFO) net leverage to decline to about 4.0x in 2027,
following the commissioning of both projects. This compares with
10.6x in 2025, when the company incurred most of the BESS and
Tiligulska II project capex, but generated limited EBITDA from
them. Higher EBITDA, coupled with lower leverage, could improve the
company's funding prospects in the medium term, but it does not
materially reduce the imminent refinancing risk, in its view, in
light of the possible disruption related to the ongoing war.
Complex Group Structure: DTEK RES is part of a larger group, DTEK
GROUP B.V., which is a private energy corporation in Ukraine
ultimately owned by System Capital Management (SCM). Fitch rates
DTEK RES on a standalone basis under its Parent and Subsidiary
Linkage Rating Criteria, given its overall assessment of weak
incentives for SCM to support it.
Peer Analysis
DTEK RES's affiliated companies, DTEK Energy B.V. (CCC-) and DTEK
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION B.V. (CC), share tight liquidity and high
operational risks.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- DTEK RES continues to operate the solar power plants with a total
installed capacity of 450 MW, as well as the BESS project
commissioned in September 2025 and Tiligulska II, which is being
gradually commissioned during 2026 and will have a total installed
capacity of 498 MW once fully commissioned
- Total electricity generation rises to 2,350GWh in 2027 from
977GWh in 2025, following the commissioning of Tiligulska II
- EBITDA at DTEK RES to increase to about EUR200 million annually
from 2027, from EUR90 million in 2025, including about EUR40
million from the BESS project and EUR110 million from Tiligulska
II
- Collection of receivables from guaranteed buyer and from
balancing activity for Ukrenergo is 85% of amounts due
- Collection of receivables from Tiligulska I, Tiligulska II and
aFRR services for Ukrenergo is 100%
- Capex to fall to about EUR10 million annually from 2027,
following the commissioning of Tiligulska II
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bb', Lower), sector characteristics
('b-', Moderate), market and competitive positioning ('bb-',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('bbb-', Lower),
company operational characteristics ('b-', Higher), profitability
('b+', Moderate), financial structure ('b', Moderate), and
financial flexibility ('ccc-', Higher).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast year
2027.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in an
adjustment of -3 notches.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'ccc' has no impact.
The SCP is 'cc'.
Recovery Analysis
Key Recovery Rating Assumptions
The recovery analysis assumes that DTEK RES would be reorganised as
a going concern (GC) in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
Its recovery analysis assumes that creditor recoveries will be
derived from the guarantors' group only, which comprises DTEK RES
and certain subsidiaries, but excludes the operating solar plant
Nikopol and the expected contribution from Tiligulska II.
Its GC EBITDA estimate reflects its view of a sustainable,
post-reorganisation EBITDA level on which Fitch bases the valuation
of the company in the event of financial distress.
Its estimate of DTEK RES's GC EBITDA, at about EUR65 million,
factors in the GC EBITDA of subsidiaries - Orlivska Wind Farm,
Pokrovska Solar Farm, Tryfonivska Solar Farm, Tiligulska Wind
Electric Plant and BESS project.
Fitch applies a recovery multiple of 3x.
Its estimates of creditor claims include EUR14 million secured bank
loans, EUR55 million secured bank debt relating to BESS project and
EUR281 million unsecured green bonds.
After deducting 10% for administrative claims, this generates a
ranked recovery in the 'RR4' band, leading to a 'CC' instrument
rating.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The rating would be downgraded on signs that a default-like process
had begun (for example, a formal launch of another debt exchange
proposal involving a material reduction in terms to avoid a
traditional payment default).
Non-payment of coupon or debt obligations or steps towards further
debt restructuring would result in a downgrade.
The IDR would be downgraded to 'D' if DTEK RES entered into
bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation or
other formal winding-up procedures, or ceased business.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Relaxation of the FX moratorium, alongside evidence that the
company is able to refinance its debt without restructuring, would
be positive for the rating.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, DTEK RES had EUR887 million (UAH43,867 million)
Fitch-calculated outstanding debt, including EUR712 million within
the bond group (EUR281 million green bonds, EUR14 million bank debt
relating to Orlivska, EUR55 million bank debt relating to BESS and
EUR363 million bank debt relating to Tiligulska II) and EUR175
million outside of the bond group (Primorskaya 1 and Primorskaya 2,
Botieveo, Nikopol). This compared with EU41 million of cash and
cash equivalents, with the majority placed within the bond group,
EUR11.6 million available committed credit facilities designated
for BESS and Tiligulska II project, and Fitch-expected positive
free cash flow of about EUR18 million in 2026.
Debt maturities for 2026 include EUR12 million repayments within
the bond group (relating to the BESS project) and EUR20 million
outside of the bond group relating to Nikipol project, excluding
any repayments relating to assets located on temporarily occupied
territories, for which DTEK RES has not made any principal
repayments over the last three years.
Issuer Profile
DTEK RES is the owner of wind and solar power generation assets in
Ukraine with a 1,124MW capacity at end-2025.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for DTEK RES.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
DTEK Renewables
Finance B.V.
senior unsecured LT CC Affirmed RR4 CC
DTEK Renewables B.V. LT IDR CC Affirmed CC
LC LT IDR CC Affirmed CC
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
AIRA FORCE 2026-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating to Class G Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned provisional ratings to Notes to be
issued by Aira Force 2026-1 PLC:
GBP [ ]M Class A Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class B Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class C Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class D Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)A2 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class E Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)Baa2 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class F Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)Ba2 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class G Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due January
2072, Assigned (P)B2 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class X Floating Rate Notes due January 2072, Assigned
(P)B1 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned a rating to GBP[ ]M Class H Mortgage
Backed Floating Rate Notes due January 2072.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Notes are backed by a static pool of UK second-lien residential
mortgage loans originated by UK Mortgage Lending Ltd ("UKMLL", NR),
owned by Pepper Money (PMB) Limited. The portfolio of assets amount
to approximately GBP201.3 million as of 31st May pool cutoff date.
There will be a pre-funding period between the issue date up to the
second interest payment date, which could see the pool increase up
to GBP250 million, in line with pre-funding criteria.
The transaction benefits from a liquidity reserve fund which is
zero at closing and at any other time equal to the greater of 1.0%
of the outstanding Classes A or B Notes and is initially funded by
the principal proceeds. The liquidity reserve fund will be
available to cover senior fees and costs, and Classes A and B
interest. After the liquidity reserve fund reaches its target, it
will be replenished from the interest collections thereafter. The
liquidity reserve fund will be released down the principal
waterfall as Class A and Class B Notes are paid down, ultimately
providing credit enhancement for Classes A to G and Class H Notes.
Credit enhancement for Class A Notes is provided by 22.5%
subordination at closing, the liquidity reserve fund, and excess
spread.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, the structural features of the transaction and its legal
integrity.
The transaction benefits from various credit strengths such as a
granular portfolio and an amortising liquidity reserve. However,
Moody's notes that the transaction features some credit weaknesses
such as an unrated originator and servicer and the risk of spread
compression due to product switches. Various mitigants have been
included in the transaction structure to mitigate the operational
risk. To ensure payment continuity over the transaction's lifetime,
the transaction documents incorporate estimation language whereby
the cash manager Citibank, N.A., London Branch (Aa3(cr)/P-1(cr))
can use the most recent servicer reports to determine the cash
allocation in case no servicer report is available. The transaction
also benefits from approximately 2.1 months of liquidity provided
by the reserve fund. The liquidity does not cover any class of
Notes except for the Class A and Class B Notes in the event of
financial disruption of the servicer, capping the achievable
ratings of the Class C to Class G Notes.
Additionally, there is an interest rate risk mismatch between the
98.2% of loans in the pool that are fixed rate, of which 94.9%
revert to the SVR plus a contractual margin, and the Notes which
are floating rate securities with reference to compounded daily
SONIA. To mitigate this mismatch there will be a scheduled notional
fixed-floating interest rate swap provided by Banco Santander, S.A.
(Spain) (A2(cr)/P-1(cr)).
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected loss of 3.5% and
MILAN Stressed Loss of 19.9% related to borrower receivables. The
expected loss captures Moody's expectations of performance
considering the current economic outlook, while the MILAN Stressed
Loss captures the loss Moody's expects the portfolio to suffer in
the event of a severe recession scenario. Expected loss and MILAN
Stressed Loss are parameters used to calibrate Moody's lognormal
portfolio loss distribution curve and to associate a probability
with each potential future loss scenario in the ABSROM cash flow
model to rate RMBS.
Portfolio expected loss of 3.5%: This is higher than the UK
non-conforming RMBS sector average and is based on Moody's
assessments of the lifetime loss expectation for the pool taking
into account: (i) all of the loans in the pool having a second
charge over the properties with a higher than average proportion of
loans having CLTV greater than 85%; (ii) the current macroeconomic
environment in the United Kingdom; and (iii) benchmarking with
similar transactions in the UK non-conforming sector.
MILAN stressed loss for this pool is 19.9%, which is higher than
the UK non-conforming RMBS sector average and follows Moody's
assessments of the loan-by-loan information, taking into account:
(i) WA CLTV of 71.5%, which is higher than the UK owner-occupied
average; (ii) all of the loans in the pool having a second charge
over the properties with a higher than average proportion of loans
having CLTV greater than 85%; (iii) the originator and servicer
assessment; and (iv) the percentage of self-employed borrowers in
the pool of 16.7%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Residential
Mortgage-Backed Securitizations" published in October 2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings of the Notes
include significantly better than expected performance of the pool
together with an increase in credit enhancement of Notes.
Factors that would lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (i)
increased counterparty risk leading to potential operational risk
of (a) servicing or cash management interruptions and (b) the risk
of increased swap linkage due to a downgrade of a swap counterparty
ratings; and (ii) economic conditions being worse than forecast
resulting in higher arrears and losses.
ALDERLEY PARTNERSHIPS: BTG Begbies Appointed as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------------------
Alderley Partnerships (2019) Limited was placed into administration
in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of
England & Wales, No CR-2026-004667, and Constantinos Pedhiou and
Yiannis Koumettou of BTG Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP were
appointed as Joint Administrators on July 1, 2026.
The company specialized in the development of building projects.
Its registered office is at Suite 501, Unit 2, 94A Wycliffe Road,
Northampton, NN1 5JF.
Its principal trading address is 50 Sloane Avenue, London, SW3
3DD.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Constantinos Pedhiou
Yiannis Koumettou
BTG Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Suite 501, Unit 2
94A Wycliffe Road
Northampton
NN1 5JF
For further details, contact:
Lacra Constantin
Tel: 020 8370 7250
Email: Lacra.Constantin@btguk.com
BOSS POWERBOATS: Leading Appointed as Joint Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------
Boss Powerboats Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, No 005191 of 2026. Michael Roome and Jamie
Playford of Leading were appointed as Joint Administrators on July
2, 2026.
The company specialized in the building of pleasure and sporting
boats.
Its registered office is at Lyndale House, 24a High Street,
Addlestone, Surrey, England, KT15 1TN.
Its principal trading address is Unit 6–10, Queensway, New
Milton, Hampshire, BH25 5NN.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Michael Roome
Jamie Playford
Leading
Lawrence House
5 St Andrew’s Hill
Norwich
NR2 1AD
For further details, contact:
George Robinson
Tel: 01603 552028
EUROSAIL-UK 07-4 BL: Fitch Affirms 'CCsf' Rating on Class E1c Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Eurosail-UK 07-3 BL Plc's
(ES07-3) class C1a/C1c notes and Eurosail-UK 07-4 BL Plc's (ES07-4)
class B1a notes to Stable from Negative and affirmed the ratings of
all tranches.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Eurosail-UK 07-3 BL Plc
Class A3a 29880YAG4 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A3c 29880YAJ8 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1a 29880YAK5 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1c 29880YAM1 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1a 29880YAN9 LT BBBsf Affirmed BBBsf
Class C1c 29880YAQ2 LT BBBsf Affirmed BBBsf
Class D1a 29880YAR0 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Class E1c XS0308725844 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Eurosail-UK 07-4 BL Plc
Class A3 XS1150797600 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A4 XS1150799481 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A5 XS1150799721 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1a 29881BAK4 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class C1a 29881BAN8 LT BBsf Affirmed BBsf
Class D1a 29881BAR9 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Class E1c XS0311717416 LT CCsf Affirmed CCsf
Transaction Summary
The transactions comprise UK non-conforming mortgage loans
originated by Southern Pacific Mortgage Limited, Preferred
Mortgages Limited (both formerly wholly owned subsidiaries of
Lehman Brothers), London Mortgage Company and Alliance and
Leicester Plc.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Transaction Adjustment: Fitch has applied its non-conforming
assumptions and an owner-occupied transaction adjustment of 1.0x
and buy-to-let (BTL) transaction adjustment of 1.5x for both
transactions. This is due to the historical performance of loans
with arrears greater than three months being weaker than the sector
average for both transactions.
BTL RR Cap: The non-conforming sector has reported losses that
exceed those implied by the indexed property values in the
underlying pools. Fitch has therefore applied borrower-level
recovery rate caps to the BTL loans in these transactions, in line
with those applied to non-conforming loans: 85% at 'Bsf' and 65% at
'AAAsf'.
Improved Arrears: The proportion of new loans entering arrears has
stabilised across the transactions since the last review. Arrears
above one month have decreased by 1.5% for ES07-3 and 0.5% for
ES07-4. The proportion of loans more than three months in arrears
has also reduced since the last review.
Arrears that are 12 months or more are reclassified by Fitch as
defaulted. For ES07-3, these have increased by 1.8% and for ES07-4
by 1.1%. Total defaults have increased by 1.8% and 1.2%,
respectively. Fitch expects performing collateral to exit the pool,
which may lead to an increase in total arrears and defaults as a
percentage of the asset pools.
Tail Risks: The transactions carry a large proportion of
owner-occupied interest-only loans, representing a material
back-loaded risk within the portfolios. Interest-only loans account
for 83.2% of ES07-3 and 79.0% of ES07-4. The maturities are
concentrated between 2027 and 2032, meaning the proportion of loans
past maturity is expected to increase materially in the short term.
This constrains the ratings and partly drives the outlook for
ES07-3's class D and E notes and ES07-4's C note. Fitch tested the
impact of assuming these loans to be restructured and found the
assigned ratings to be robust to the resulting increase in
foreclosure frequency.
Decreasing Senior Fees: Both transactions continue to incur high
senior fee expenses with total non-servicing fees over GBP250,000
observed over the past three years in both transactions. Total fee
levels have reduced, but the ratings are sensitive to the senior
fee assumptions, and any increase in its assumptions could lead to
lower model-implied ratings and downgrades at future reviews. This
constrains the ratings and partly drives the Outlooks on the
ES07-3's D and E notes and ES07-4's C note.
Credit Enhancement: ES07-3's sequential amortisation has resulted
in a continued build-up of credit enhancement (CE) for all its
notes. ES07-4 continues to amortise sequentially following an
arrears trigger breach at the September 2023 interest payment date.
For ES07-3's class A and B notes and ES07-4's class A notes, CE has
increased and remains above 50%. These levels are likely sufficient
to withstand expected and unexpected losses and drive the
affirmation at 'AAA' for these notes.
For ES07-4's class B notes, CE has increased to 38.7% from 34.7%
and for and for ES07-3's class C notes, it has increased to 26.7%
from 24.3%. A continued increase in CE may lead to an upgrade of
these notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transactions' performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing delinquencies and
defaults, which could reduce CE available to the notes.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the weighted average foreclosure
frequency and 15% decrease in the weighted average recovery rate
would imply the following:
ES07-3:
Class C1a/C1c: 'BB+sf'
Class D1a/E1c: Below 'B-sf'.
ES07-4:
Class B1a: 'AAsf'
Class C1a: 'B-sf'
Class D1a: Below 'B-sf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing CE and potentially upgrades.
Fitch found that a 15% decrease in the weighted average foreclosure
frequency and 15% increase in the weighted average recovery rate
would result in the following:
ES07-3:
Class C1a/C1c: 'BBBsf'
Class D1a: 'BBsf'
Class E1c: 'B-sf'
ES07-4:
Class B1a: 'AAAsf'
Class C1a: 'BBBsf'
Class D1a: 'BB-sf'
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pool ahead of the transaction's initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transaction over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Eurosail-UK 07-3 BL Plc has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Customer Welfare - Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Eurosail-UK 07-3 BL Plc has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human
Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability due to , which
has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Eurosail-UK 07-4 BL Plc has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Customer Welfare - Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to ,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Eurosail-UK 07-4 BL Plc has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human
Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability due to , which
has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
FINANCE FOR RESIDENTIAL: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Rating on 1-B Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the rating of one class of UK Housing
Association Notes issued by Finance for Residential Social Housing
PLC (Fresh):
GBP37.09M (Current outstanding amount GBP17.55M) Ser. 1 - A3
Notes, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Feb 5, 2024 Affirmed Baa1
(sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings of the following Notes:
GBP727.88M (Current outstanding amount GBP344.45M) Ser. 1 - A1
Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 5, 2024 Affirmed Aa2
(sf)
GBP115.91M (Current outstanding amount GBP47.75M) Ser. 1 - A2
Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 5, 2024 Affirmed Aa2
(sf)
GBP37.09M (Current outstanding amount GBP17.55M) Ser. 1 - B Notes,
Affirmed Ba1 (sf); previously on Feb 5, 2024 Affirmed Ba1 (sf)
Moody's do not rate the Series 3 - C Notes.
Finance for Residential Social Housing PLC (Fresh) is a
securitization of a portfolio of loans granted to UK Housing
Associations (HAs). Series 1 Notes are secured by a granular
portfolio of Series 1 fixed rate loans. Series 2 Notes were repaid
in full in the October 2024 IPD[1].
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrade on the Series 1 - A3 is driven by the
deleveraging of the Notes following amortisation of the underlying
portfolio since the last rating action in February 2024.
The affirmations on Series 1 - A1, Series 1 - A2, and Series 1 - B
Notes are based on the underlying stable performance of the
transaction.
The transaction benefits from various structural features including
the GBP9,358,492 Series 3 - C Notes that provide credit support for
the Series 1 Notes. Series 3 - C Notes reflect a part of the higher
amount of the underlying loan portfolios compared to the Series 1
Note amount.
The rating of all the Classes of Notes is constrained at Aa1 (sf)
by the issuer account bank exposure. Moody's have analysed the
degree of linkage between the National Westminster Bank Plc ("NWB")
(A1 stable) and the transaction and have concluded that it falls in
the strong linkage category.
Moody's had previously determined the A3 rating replacement trigger
of the transaction's account bank as ineffective because the
previous account bank was not replaced following its downgrade to
Baa1 from A3 on March 13, 2014.
Moody's uses two sets of rating caps based on the size of the
possible exposure to an account bank ("standard" exposure versus
"strong" exposure). Moody's analysed the degree of linkage between
the account bank and the transaction and have concluded that it
falls in the strong linkage category. Moody's determined the
exposure to the transaction's account bank as "strong" based on the
exposure ratio being greater than 40%. Moody's measures the
exposure as a ratio of the cash expected to be in the bank account
or investment - net of expected recoveries after a default -
divided by the amount of credit enhancement. A 45% recovery rate is
assumed.
Considering the ineffective replacement trigger and "strong"
exposure, the maximum achievable rating for this transaction is Aa1
(sf).
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
As of April 2026 IPD[2], Series 1 balance is equal to GBP437.1
million with 316 borrowers. Its largest borrower exposure accounts
for 8.3% of the pool. The Notes have paid down by approximately
GBP74.0 million (8.1%) since the last rating action in February
2024 and GBP487.5 million (53.3%) since closing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "EMEA
Commercial Mortgage-backed Securitisations" published in June
2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
Moody's assess the Issuer's exposure to the Account Bank in
accordance with Moody's cross-sector methodology "Structured
Finance Counterparty Risks" published in May 2025.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings are generally (i) a decrease in default risk assessment
driven by a change in the credit strength of the underlying
borrowers; (ii) an improvement in the property values backing the
underlying loans; or (iii) an improvement in the credit quality of
the counterparties, especially the account bank or the replacement
of the current account bank with a higher rated bank.
Main factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings are generally (i) an increase in default risk assessment
driven by a change in the credit strength of the underlying
borrowers; (ii) a decline in the property values backing the
underlying loans; or (iii) a deterioration in the credit quality of
the counterparties, especially the account bank and the replacement
trigger remains ineffective.
URBAN POWERBOAT: Leading Appointed as Joint Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------
Urban Powerboat Services Limited was placed into administration in
the High Court of Justice, No 005195 of 2026, and Michael Roome and
Jamie Playford of Leading were appointed as Joint Administrators on
July 2, 2026.
The company specialized in the building of pleasure and sporting
boats.
Its registered office and principal trading address is 6-10
Queensway, Stem Lane Industrial Estate, New Milton, United Kingdom,
BH25 5NN.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Michael Roome
Jamie Playford
Leading
Lawrence House
5 St Andrew`s Hill
Norwich
NR2 1AD
For further details, contact:
Tel: 01603 552028
Contact: George Robinson
VICTORIA PLC: Moody's Lowers CFR & Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to Caa2
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded Victoria plc's (Victoria or the
company) corporate family rating to Caa2 from Caa1, as well as its
probability of default rating to Caa2-PD from Caa1-PD.
Concurrently, Moody's have downgraded to Caa2 from Caa1 the
instrument ratings of the First Priority Backed Senior Secured
Notes (FPNs) due 2029; and to Ca from Caa3 the instrument ratings
on both backed senior secured notes due 2028 and 2031. The outlook
remains negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of Victoria's CFR to Caa2 reflects
weaker-than-expected operating performance, as well as Moody's
views that Victoria's liquidity profile is weak and will continue
to deteriorate over the next 12 to 18 months. Victoria has provided
guidance that company-adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year ending in
March 2026 (fiscal 2026) has decreased to around GBP95 million from
GBP114 million in the prior fiscal year, as significant price
increases and cost-saving initiatives were more than offset by
falling volumes. This figure is significantly below Moody's
original expectations of company-adjusted EBITDA of around GBP126
million for fiscal 2026. Moody's also estimates that
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA at the end of fiscal 2026 has
increased significantly to above 20x, from a pro forma level of
10.3x (for the current capital structure), driven by the
deterioration in operating performance, a significant increase in
restructuring costs, and higher outstanding debt resulting from PIK
interest on the FPNs and the full drawdown of the GBP55 million
revolving credit facility (RCF).
Moody's expects the company's operating performance to improve in
fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, primarily as a result of significant
cost-saving initiatives, a modest demand recovery, and market share
gains as competitors exit or scale back amid financial stress.
However, significant uncertainty remains around Victoria's
operating performance recovery trajectory, which could be derailed
by weakening consumer confidence and competitive pressures.
Therefore, Moody's forecasts that Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA will
remain above 8.5x at the end of fiscal 2028, while Moody's-adjusted
EBITA/interest expense will also remain well below 1.0x. In Moody's
views, these weak credit metrics, alongside Moody's expectations of
negative free cash flow generation, reflect the unsustainability of
Victoria's capital structure.
On July 08, 2026, Victoria announced that it had entered into a
transaction support agreement (TSA) with the holders of its
preferred shares and a group of holders representing two-thirds of
its outstanding EUR166.6 million backed senior secured notes due
2028. As part of the agreement, among other points, the consenting
2028 noteholders will see their notes exchanged for new 12% PIK
Second Priority Notes (2PNs) due 2031, which will be subordinated
to the outstanding 1PNs, but senior to both existing senior secured
notes due 2028 and 2031. The exchange will occur at a rate of
EUR750 of 2PNs for each EUR1,000 of participating 2028 SSNs, with
the consenting noteholders also receiving ordinary equity (c. 34.8
million shares in total) and an early-bird fee. Current
non-consenting 2028 noteholders will also be able to accede to the
TSA. If at least 90% of the 2028 noteholders accede to the TSA, the
transaction will be implemented by way of a consent solicitation
and a court-approved capital reduction process. However, the
current consenting 2028 noteholders have also agreed to support
Victoria if the 90% threshold is not met and the transaction needs
to be implemented via a scheme of arrangement. Moody's expects the
transaction, if successfully executed, to close in the second half
of fiscal 2027.
If the exchange offers are successfully executed as proposed,
Moody's would likely classify this transaction as a distressed
exchange per Moody's definitions and reflect the limited default
(LD) upon completion. Moody's considers distressed exchanges a form
of default.
Although the transaction, if successful, will push the nearest
significant maturity to August 2029, Moody's expects the impact on
Moody's-adjusted leverage to be limited. Additionally, Moody's
still view Victoria's liquidity as weak. The GBP55 million senior
secured RCF has been fully drawn, and Moody's expects significant
negative free cash flow generation over the next 12–18 months,
especially after full cash interest on the 1PNs resumes in February
2027. Although the company has announced the sale and leaseback of
its Belgium distribution center and more asset sales could follow,
Moody's expects Victoria's liquidity to continue to deteriorate
over the next 12-18 months.
Besides the very weak credit metrics and liquidity, Victoria's Caa2
CFR is also constrained by the company's (1) activities in mature
markets with competitive pressures; (2) sale of consumer
discretionary items correlated with the economic cycle; and, (3)
exposure to volatile raw material prices and foreign currency
movements.
The rating is supported by the company's (1) leading positions
within the fragmented European soft flooring and ceramic tiles
markets; (2) focus on independent retail channels with greater
customer diversity and pricing power; (3) low exposure to the new
construction segment; and (4) flexible cost structure.
LIQUIDITY
The company's liquidity is weak. At the end of September 2025,
Victoria had GBP94 million of cash (GBP86.6 million net of
overdrafts), with GBP55 million super senior RCF having been fully
drawn. Moody's expects that over the next 12-18 months free cash
flow will be negative, and will continue to reduce the company's
cash balance, especially after the PIK toggle mechanism that
allowed the company to pay in cash only 1% interest on its 1PNs
elapses and the first full cash coupon will be paid in February
2027.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty associated with the
recovery of operating performance, Moody's expectations of negative
free cash flow leading to a deterioration in the company's
liquidity over the next 12-18 months, as well as the continued
concerns around the unsustainability of the post-exchange capital
structure and risk of further losses.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Given the negative outlook, a rating upgrade is currently unlikely
and would nevertheless require a meaningful improvement in
operating performance, liquidity and, ultimately, in Moody's
assessments of the sustainability of Victoria's capital structure,
leading to stronger credit metrics.
Negative pressure on the ratings could arise if the likelihood of a
default under Moody's definitions increases or if recovery
expectations weaken.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Consumer
Durables published in December 2025.
COMPANY PROFILE
Victoria plc, founded in 1895 in the United Kingdom, is an
international designer, manufacturer and distributor of flooring
products across carpets, ceramic tiles, underlay, luxury vinyl
tile, artificial grass and flooring accessories. Victoria is listed
on AIM in London with a market capitalisation of approximately
GBP80 million as of time of this publication. The company benefits
from good geographic diversification, with more than 74% of its
revenue being generated from outside the UK. For the financial year
ending in March 2025, the company generated GBP1,115 million of
sales and GBP114 million of reported underlying EBITDA.
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