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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, August 11, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 159
Headlines
A U S T R I A
ADDIKO BANK: Fitch Puts 'BB' Long-Term IDR on Watch Positive
B O S N I A A N D H E R Z E G O V I N A
REPUBLIKA SRPSKA: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable, Affirms 'B' ICR
G E O R G I A
GEORGIA: S&P Alters Outlook to Positive, Affirms 'BB/B' SCRs
I R E L A N D
ARBOUR CLO II: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F-R-R-R Notes
ARES EUROPEAN VIII: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Rating to Class F-RR Notes
ARES EUROPEAN X: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class F Notes to 'BBsf'
AVOCA CLO XXIII: Fitch's Outlook on 'B-' F Notes Rating Now Stable
FENIX FINANCE: S&P Assigns Prelim B- (sf) Rating to Class F Notes
HENLEY CLO I: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F-R Notes
LOGICLANE I: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
NORTHWOODS CAPITAL 26: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating to Cl F-2-R Notes
SOUND POINT V: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Class F Debts
K A Z A K H S T A N
MICROFINANCE ORGANIZATION: Fitch Assigns 'B' IDR, Outlook Stable
K O S O V O
KOSOVO: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
L U X E M B O U R G
SPEED MIDCO: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'B+' ICR
N E T H E R L A N D S
TRUENOORD B.V: Fitch Assigns 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ASTON MARTIN: Fitch Lowers Rating on Sr. Secured Notes to 'CCC'
ASTON MARTIN: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'CCC+' ICR
BITMORE LIMITED: RG Insolvency Appointed as Joint Administrators
CITY STRONGMAN: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
TMBFITNESS LIMITED: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
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A U S T R I A
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ADDIKO BANK: Fitch Puts 'BB' Long-Term IDR on Watch Positive
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has placed Addiko Bank AG's Long-Term Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) of 'BB' and Short-Term IDR of 'B' on Rating Watch
Positive (RWP). Addiko's Viability Rating (VR) of 'bb' is
unaffected.
The rating action follows Raiffeisen Bank International AG's (RBI)
announcement on 24 July that it received declarations of acceptance
for Addiko shares, subject to the voluntary public tender offer it
made in May 2026 above the minimum acceptance threshold of 55%.
The RWP reflects its view that Addiko will likely benefit from
extraordinary support from its new owner, and that these benefits
may be strong enough to assign a Shareholder Support Rating (SSR)
above Addiko's VR. Fitch aims to resolve the RWP on completion of
the takeover offer, which Fitch expects in 4Q26, subject to
regulatory approval.
Key Rating Drivers
Likely Shareholder Support: The RWP reflects Fitch's view that
following RBI's takeover of Addiko, the latter will likely benefit
from extraordinary support available from its new owner. Fitch
believes RBI has a clear strategic rationale for acquiring Addiko.
Both Addiko and RBI are headquartered in Vienna, RBI would regain
access to Slovenia and increase its market share in Croatia, where
it would become the fourth largest bank. RBI has also an agreement
with a third party to sell Addiko's non-EU subsidiaries following
the acquisition. After the carve-out, Addiko will represent less
than 2% of RBI's assets.
In assessing Addiko's SSR Fitch will consider RBI's standalone
credit profile, its size relative to Addiko, its final ownership
stake of Addiko, its ability to integrate the EU business as well
as Addiko's importance for the wider RBI group and its financial
performance and prospects.
No Immediate Impact on VR: Addiko's Long-Term IDR is currently
driven by its VR of 'bb'. Fitch believes that the announced
acquisition does not have an immediate impact on Addiko's
standalone credit profile. Therefore, the VR is not immediately
affected and continues to reflect the bank's focus on unsecured
lending to retail customers and small businesses in south eastern
Europe, adequate risk profile and asset quality, and modest
profitability. Liquidity, funding and capitalisation remain VR
strengths.
For more details on Addiko's key rating drivers, see its Rating
Action Commentary "Fitch Affirms Addiko Bank at 'BB'; Outlook
Stable", published 24 October 2025.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
If the acquisition does not go ahead, Fitch will remove the ratings
from RWP and affirm them.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Fitch sees upside for Addiko's IDRs following the acquisition by
RBI. The resolution of the RWP is contingent on its assessment of
the probability of support available to Addiko from its new owner.
If the information required for its assessment is not available,
Fitch may withdraw Addiko's ratings following the acquisition
without resolving the RWP.
Other than those noted above, rating sensitivities for Addiko are
outlined in "Fitch Affirms Addiko Bank at 'BB'; Outlook Stable",
published 24 October 2025.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Addiko Bank AG LT IDR BB Rating Watch On BB
ST IDR B Rating Watch On B
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B O S N I A A N D H E R Z E G O V I N A
===========================================
REPUBLIKA SRPSKA: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable, Affirms 'B' ICR
---------------------------------------------------------------
On Aug. 7, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the
credit rating on Republika Srpska (RS) to stable from negative. The
'B' long-term issuer credit rating was affirmed.
S&P also affirmed its 'B' senior unsecured issue rating.
Outlook
S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that better access
to external funding will allow RS to finance its investment program
and operating deficit without compromising its ability to serve
debt obligations. We also assume that RS will gradually consolidate
its budget post general election, which will then slow debt
accumulation."
Downside scenario
S&P could lower the rating if RS' access to funding tightens again,
for example due to geopolitical tensions or rising contingent
liabilities having repercussions for the entity's ability to
execute its financial policy. Additionally, inability to reduce the
operating deficit from 2027 could lead to a materially higher debt
burden and might then also exert downward pressure on the rating.
Upside scenario
S&P said, "We could raise the rating if RS demonstrates a
commitment to structurally stronger budgetary performance with a
solid operating surplus and a tighter control of its contingent
liabilities. We assume that, in this scenario, RS will retain
uninterrupted access to international capital markets and banks."
Rationale
S&P said, "The outlook revision reflects our view that, thanks to
improved access to international capital markets and successful
refinancing of its Eurobond in April 2026, RS has been able to
uphold its liquidity position. As a result, the government has
sufficient resources to cover its financial obligations over the
next 12 months amid potential political volatility around the
general election in BiH in October 2026.
"We assume that the new government, to be formed after the upcoming
election, will use its financial flexibility to consolidate RS'
budget after a substantial increase in pensions, public sector
wages, social spending, and capital investments in 2026. Still, we
expect the RS' budget deficit to widen to a large 15% of revenue in
2026 before then subsiding to a moderate 8% by 2028. Stronger
revenue growth and modestly increased spending after the election
will likely contribute and thereby also help to stabilize the debt
burden. We project tax-supported debt to stay around an elevated
120% of consolidated operating revenues."
Modest economic growth due to a negative demographic trend, limited
private investments, and a volatile institutional framework the
constituent entities in BiH operate under will continue to
constrain the rating on the RS.
Persistent political tensions inhibit RS' economic development,
constrain fiscal flexibility, and pose long-term risks to financial
sustainability
S&P said, "We assess the institutional framework, under which the
constituent entities of BiH (B+/Stable/B) operate, as volatile and
unbalanced. We view RS' political and financial arrangements with
the central government of BiH and the country's other relevant
constituent entity, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH;
B+/Negative/B), as very complex." Constant political tensions and
lax oversight from the state authorities test the fragile balance
of power between the different actors that is specified in the
Dayton Peace Accord and the constitution.
Although all three governments broadly agree on the need for
institutional and economic reforms, including the transition to EU
membership, implementation is frequently interrupted. RS' political
leadership regularly uses secessionist rhetoric in relation to
state-level institutions and challenges decisions made by the
Office of the High Representative, the UN-backed arbitrator in BiH
internal affairs. However, S&P continues to believe that concrete
steps toward RS' secession are unlikely. Its long-term economic
development depends heavily on the availability of international
financing, which could be jeopardized in a secession scenario.
The weaknesses of the institutional framework are partially offset
by the constitutional entities' strong ability to manage their own
fiscal policies and the robust framework to fund a large portion of
external debt service. RS sets the rate and base for about 60% of
its revenue, including direct taxes and social security
contributions. Moreover, a special mechanism ensures timely
repayment of about 33% of RS' debt, mostly owed to multilateral
institutions via BiH. The central government receives payment to
serve such debt directly from its Indirect Tax Authority (ITA),
which collects value-added tax and excise taxes across the country.
ITA first allocates the proceeds to finance central government
institutions and service external debt raised via BiH. It only then
transfers the residual amount to the constituent entities for
further use in their individual budgets.
That said, S&P continues to observe weaknesses in RS' financial
management due to ongoing political volatility, lack of effective
control of government-related entities, and inconsistent disclosure
standards. RS has a track record of loosening its fiscal policy
prior to elections, which, in its view, further constrains the
entity's financial flexibility and predictability.
RS is currently in an intense phase of the electoral cycle that
will continue at least until the end of 2026, when new regional
authorities will emerge from the October general election. Last
September, longstanding RS president Milorad Dodik stepped down,
honoring decisions by the Court of BiH and the BiH Central Election
Commission to revoke his mandate. Simultaneously, the U.S. Treasury
lifted sanctions on Mr. Dodik, his allies, family members, and
related companies. Ana Trisic-Babic served as acting president from
September 2025 until February 2026, when Sinisa Karan assumed the
office after a protracted and contested presidential election.
Following the upcoming general election due on Oct. 4, a new
parliament and president will enter office.
The recent period of political volatility has coincided with an
increase in RS' contingent liabilities related to off-balance-sheet
activities, especially at state-owned enterprises, and with relaxed
control over the repayment of its debt obligations:
-- In 2025, RS had to honor two large liabilities--a payment to
BiH related to the halted construction of hydropower plants by
international contractors (known as the Viaduct court case) and a
repayment to Comsar, a partner of state-owned electricity producer
Elektroprivreda Republike Srpske a.d., in the Ugljevik coal mine
project. While the involved total liabilities of about
konvertibilna marka (BAM) 400 million are moderate compared with
RS' total budget, regular crystallization of such contingent
liabilities poses risks to performance.
-- In November-December 2025, RS missed a payment on its war
damage obligations by more than 25 days. We view this as an
administrative error and don't consider this delay a case of
default. The payment was minor, at about BAM1.9 million (0.03% of
RS' operating revenue), and RS made it immediately after the error
became apparent. This case, however, reveals weaknesses in RS'
treasury system.
S&P said, "We take a positive view of the well-structured budgeting
process compared with those of regional peers, along with the cap
on the government's permissible debt burden, the annual deficit,
and solid debt management. RS' debt must not exceed 60% of its GDP
and the deficit should stay within 3% of GDP.
"In general, RS' economy is relatively weak in an international
context and faces significant structural challenges. While we
project GDP to grow at about 2.7% annually in 2026-2028, GDP per
capita will remain below a modest $11,000 until 2027. Several
substantial risks to economic development remain. A declining
population, reduced investor appetite, elevated public spending
ahead of the next election, and sluggish economic development in
the EU and neighboring countries are factors that may inhibit local
economic growth but push inflation up. We anticipate inflation will
stay at about 2.5%-3.0% in 2026-2028. Furthermore, we project the
population will continue to shrink by about 0.5% annually in the
medium term. A significant proportion of the working-age population
has migrated to more developed economies in Europe."
Better access to capital markets helps finance higher social
spending and increase investments in the medium term
RS' access to the domestic and international debt market has
improved since the U.S. Treasury lifted its sanctions on Mr. Dodik
and his associates. In the first half of 2026, the RS managed to
successfully place two Eurobond tranches of EUR750 million in total
that helped to refinance its Eurobond maturity in April and boosted
its liquidity position. Still, RS' capacity to cover debt service
with existing reserves will remain weak due to large budget
deficits. S&P estimates that available cash will fall below the
projected deficit and debt service requirement in 2027, with a
gradual improvement in the coverage only thereafter.
S&P said, "Anticipating post-election consolidation measures to
partially mitigate pre-election spending decisions, we expect RS'
budgetary performance will gradually improve after the general
election, but will remain structurally weak. In 2024 and 2025, the
government raised the minimum wage in the local economy that
indirectly helped to boost personal income tax and contributions to
social security funds, which together account for nearly 40% of
operating revenue. Due to ongoing political pressure to increase
social spending, we expect RS' operating balance to turn marginally
positive only in 2029, after four years of operating deficits.
Resumed access to international capital markets will, in our view,
help the government to reduce the backlog in infrastructure
investment programs, despite the operating deficits. Potential
political volatility around the elections may, however, inhibit the
pace of project implementation. We forecast the deficit after
capital accounts will remain at about 10% of revenue on average
over 2026-2029.
"As a consequence of deficits, we anticipate that RS' tax-supported
debt -- which includes direct government debt, social security fund
debt, and the debt of several public institutions and state-owned
enterprises (including those managing highways and motorways, a
large resort, and a local airport) -- will increase to 120% of
consolidated operating revenue by 2028. While about 60% of
tax-supported debt is external, we believe that the currency risks
are modest, thanks to the local currency being pegged to the euro.
Similarly, most of RS' debt carries fixed interest rates. With
higher borrowings, we nevertheless anticipate interest spending
will temporarily exceed 5% of operating revenue in 2027-2028 and
only subside thereafter.
"In our view, RS still has moderate, but growing, contingent
liabilities. In particular, we anticipate that outstanding debt of
state-owned enterprises will increase. RS' power sector requires
significant investment to replace coal-fired generation with
renewable energy sources. The prime state-owned energy company,
Elektroprivreda, is embarking on several debt-funded hydropower
projects that are guaranteed by RS. The railway company is being
restructured and may also require additional subsidies.
Furthermore, there are a few court cases, including
intergovernmental claims, which may increase RS' debt obligations.
"In accordance with our relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable." At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed
that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the
primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was
sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Rating Component Scores above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
To From
Republika Srpska
Issuer Credit Rating B/Stable/-- B/Negative/--
Ratings Affirmed
Republika Srpska
Senior Unsecured B
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G E O R G I A
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GEORGIA: S&P Alters Outlook to Positive, Affirms 'BB/B' SCRs
------------------------------------------------------------
On Aug. 7, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the
Government of Georgia to positive from stable and affirmed the
'BB/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings.
Outlook
S&P said, "The positive outlook reflects our expectation that
Georgia's external position could improve further through continued
accumulation of foreign currency reserves, thus reducing its
vulnerability to external shocks. The outlook also reflects our
expectation that Georgia's sustained strong economic performance
and prudent fiscal management will continue and could strengthen
its fiscal position over the next 12 months."
Downside scenario
S&P said, "We could consider revising the outlook to stable if
political tensions were to escalate to the point of eroding
investor confidence and weakening Georgia's growth outlook, or if
we expected the large capital and migration inflows observed in the
aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine to reverse, but this
is not in our base case."
Upside scenario
S&P could consider raising the rating if Georgia's external buffers
strengthen further, supported by continued foreign currency reserve
accumulation, or if fiscal outcomes exceed its expectations. A
positive rating action would be contingent on the absence of a
renewed escalation of domestic political tensions.
Rationale
S&P said, "Our positive outlook is based on our view that the
sustained strengthening of Georgia's macroeconomic fundamentals
could continue. Real GDP growth averaged 8.3% over the past three
years, among the highest globally. Strong economic performance,
together with prudent fiscal management, has reduced general
government debt to below 35% of GDP, while the continued
accumulation of international reserves has strengthened the
country's external position and reduced its vulnerability to
external shocks. Although political polarization remains high and
relations with some Western partners have become more strained,
this has not materially undermined macroeconomic performance or
policy effectiveness to date. In our view, the continued
strengthening of Georgia's fiscal and external metrics, alongside
resilient economic growth, supports the potential for a stronger
sovereign credit profile over the next 12 months.
"Our rating on Georgia remains constrained by its relatively low
income levels and still-developing external position, reflecting
the economy's dependence on imports, sizable external liabilities,
and moderate but declining levels of dollarization, which somewhat
weakens monetary policy transmission."
These constraints are partly offset by comparatively moderate
government debt levels, a largely floating exchange rate, and
strong access to concessional financing from international
financial institutions.
Institutional and economic profile: Growth prospects remain sound,
but political polarization remains an issue
-- Political polarization remains elevated, although public
protests have significantly moderated since the disputed 2024
parliamentary elections.
-- Relations with the EU and several Western partners remain
strained, with the effective, informal, suspension of the EU
accession process.
-- Strong economic growth and prudent macroeconomic management
continue to underpin Georgia's credit profile, despite the more
challenging political environment.
Since the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections, the intensity of
public protests has continued to moderate from the immediate
post-election period. Nevertheless, Georgia's political environment
remains highly polarized, with relations between the ruling
Georgian Dream party and the opposition remaining strained.
International concerns over democratic governance, judicial
independence, and institutional checks and balances are still
intense following the adoption of legislation affecting civil
society organizations, foreign-funded entities, and media
regulation. Despite the more challenging political environment,
these developments have not significantly disrupted Georgia's
strong economic and macroeconomic management.
Georgia's EU accession process remains effectively frozen. Little
progress has been made toward fully restoring relations with the
EU. The EU has continued to emphasize that meaningful progress
toward accession will require reforms addressing concerns over
democratic governance, the rule of law, and institutional
independence. While technical engagement between Georgia and the EU
has continued, political relations remain strained and accession
negotiations are unlikely to resume in the near term. Nevertheless,
public and government support for EU membership remains strong,
with opinion polls consistently indicating that a clear majority of
Georgians continue to support EU integration. Relations with the
U.S. remain cautious amid broader concerns over governance
developments. Over the medium term, however, a prolonged
deterioration in relations with Western partners could weaken
Georgia's external policy anchors and reduce momentum for
structural reforms.
Georgia's fiscal and monetary policy frameworks remain
comparatively prudent within the regional context, reflecting a
track record of conservative macroeconomic management that has
supported economic resilience and policy credibility. Political
developments since 2024 have, however, altered the country's
external policy environment. The suspension of Georgia's EU
accession process and evolving relations with several Western
partners have reduced the role of EU integration as an external
policy anchor. Nevertheless, the authorities continue to maintain
constructive relationships with multilateral institutions,
including the IMF, and reform efforts have therefore continued in
several areas. Yet, at the same time, recent legislative and
institutional changes have increased political polarization and may
weigh on the pace of structural reforms over the medium term.
Despite these political developments, Georgia continues to record
one of the highest growth rates worldwide. In the last three years,
the Georgian economy grew by an average of 8.3% per year. Growth
remained robust in early 2026, driven primarily by resilient
private consumption, while spillovers from heightened regional
tensions have so far been limited. S&P said, "Although we expect
some slowdown from the exceptionally high growth rates recorded in
recent years, we forecast growth to remain high at roughly 6.4% in
2026 (mainly driven by consumption), before converging to its
medium-term potential of about 5.0%. Our baseline does not
incorporate the potential Eagle Hills investment, estimated at up
to US$6 billion (about 15% of GDP); however, if implemented, it
would represent a material upside risk to growth, investment, and
medium-term confidence, particularly through higher foreign direct
investment (FDI) and construction activity."
Flexibility and performance profile: Georgia's fiscal profile
remains a credit strength, while the external profile continues to
improve
-- Fiscal deficits are about 2%-3% of GDP and net debt is
stabilizing at just above 30% of GDP, supported by a favorable debt
structure dominated by long-maturity, concessional official
financing.
-- Current account deficits are lower and the country has
accumulated significant foreign currency reserves
-- Inflationary pressures have picked up recently on the back of
temporary supply side factors
Georgia's fiscal framework remains prudent, supported by a
conservative policy stance, a track record of spending discipline,
and fiscal rules incorporating Maastricht-like deficit and debt
thresholds. S&P said, "Following stronger-than-expected fiscal
outcomes in 2025, we expect general government deficits to remain
low over the medium term (about 2%-3% of GDP), supported by
continued revenue mobilization and prudent expenditure management,
with net general government debt remaining just above 30% of GDP.
We expect financing needs to continue to be met through a
combination of domestic borrowing and long-term concessional
external financing from official creditors, supporting a favorable
debt profile." Although about two-thirds of government debt is
denominated in foreign currency, this share has continued to
decline, while the predominance of concessional, long-maturity
official financing mitigates refinancing and rollover risks.
Georgia's external position has continued to improve in recent
years, as reflected in the current account deficit narrowing to a
record low of 2.6% of GDP in 2025, from over 10% of GDP a decade
ago. This improvement has been driven by stronger services exports
(IT, tourism, and logistics), remittance inflows, and higher
merchandise exports. However, owing to weaker tourism receipts and
higher commodity prices, S&P expects the current account deficit to
widen to 3.5% this year. Nevertheless, net FDI and government
external borrowing will remain the primary sources of deficit
financing.
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has continued to accumulate
reserves at a rapid pace, and these have risen by approximately 52%
year on year to a record high of approximately US$7.1 billion in
July. The reserve build-up has primarily reflected substantial net
foreign currency purchases by the NBG, totaling US$2.4 billion in
2025 and a further US$2.1 billion through June 2026. This has been
supported by robust tourism receipts, continued growth in
information and communication technology and other services
exports, elevated remittance inflows, and ongoing de-dollarization,
which have increased the supply of foreign currency in the domestic
market. Rising gold prices have also boosted the valuation of
reserve holdings. Overall, the accumulation of reserves has
strengthened Georgia's external liquidity buffers and enhanced the
authorities' capacity to manage periods of exchange-rate
volatility. S&P expects reserves to remain broadly stable absent a
material deterioration in Georgia's relations with Western
partners.
Inflation remained elevated at 5.2% in July 2026, compared with the
same period a year earlier, although it has eased from 5.8% in
June. Recent inflationary pressures primarily reflected base
effects alongside higher transport, food, and utility prices. S&P
said, "We expect inflationary pressures to gradually ease as base
effects unwind and domestic demand normalizes, although renewed
increases in global energy prices stemming from geopolitical
tensions in the Middle East could slow the disinflation process.
Against this backdrop, the NBG raised its policy rate to 8.25% in
May 2026 and has maintained a moderately tight monetary policy
stance to contain potential second-round effects. We expect the NBG
to respond to renewed inflationary or financial stability risks
while ensuring inflation expectations remain well anchored."
Georgia's banking system remains profitable, well capitalized and
highly liquid, supported by prudent supervisory oversight, robust
credit growth, and conservative underwriting standards. Despite a
gradual decline in financial dollarization, balance sheets remain
sensitive to exchange-rate movements. The NBG has continued to
strengthen its macroprudential framework, supporting financial
stability and encouraging further de-dollarization. Asset quality
remains strong, with nonperforming loans remaining low by
international standards, reflecting continued credit expansion and
conservative lending practices. Looking ahead, S&P expects banking
sector fundamentals to remain resilient, although slower economic
growth, elevated political uncertainty, renewed exchange-rate
volatility, or a deterioration in the external environment could
weigh on credit growth, asset quality, and profitability over the
medium term.
S&P said, "In our view, strong supervisory capacity, sound
corporate governance, and a high degree of transparency support
Georgia's effective banking regulation, which remains broadly
aligned with international standards. While Georgia-based banks
rely more heavily on external funding than many peers, particularly
through loans and nonresident deposits, this vulnerability is
partly mitigated by the NBG's stringent liquidity requirements and
prudent supervisory framework. The banking sector also remains
highly concentrated, with the two largest banks accounting for more
than 70% of system assets, although we do not view concentration as
posing a material financial stability risk, given the banks' strong
capitalization, profitability and regulatory oversight.
"In accordance with our relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable." At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed
that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the
primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was
sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Rating Component Scores above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
To From
Georgia (Government of)
Sovereign Credit Rating BB/Positive/B BB/Stable/B
Ratings Affirmed
Georgia (Government of)
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
Local Currency BBB-
Senior Unsecured BB
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I R E L A N D
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ARBOUR CLO II: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F-R-R-R Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Arbour CLO II
DAC's class X, A-R-R-R, B-R-R-R, C-R-R-R, D-R-R-R, E-R-R-R, and
F-R-R-R notes. At closing, the issuer had EUR39.50 million unrated
subordinated notes outstanding from the existing transaction and
also issued additional subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
which S&P rates. The existing classes of notes were fully redeemed
with the proceeds from the issuance of the replacement notes on the
reset date. The ratings on the original notes have been withdrawn.
The reinvestment period will be approximately 4.5 years, while the
noncall period will be 1.5 years after closing.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payment.
The ratings assigned to the reset notes reflect S&P's assessment
of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,808.19
Default rate dispersion 513.10
Weighted-average life (years) 4.45
Obligor diversity measure 144.24
Industry diversity measure 23.29
Regional diversity measure 1.31
Weighted-average life (years) extended
to cover the length of the reinvestment period 4.5
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 400
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0
Number of performing obligors 180
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.55
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 34.52%
Actual weighted-average spread net of floors (%) 3.59
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 4.80
Rating rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'.
"The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and bonds.
Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by
applying our criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400.00 million target
par amount, the actual weighted-average spread of 3.59%, the actual
weighted-average coupon of 4.80%, and the target weighted-average
recovery rate for all rated notes. We applied various cash flow
stress scenarios, using four different default patterns, in
conjunction with different interest rate stress scenarios for each
liability rating category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R-R-R and C-R-R-R notes could
withstand stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those
assigned. However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase
starting from the effective date, during which the transaction's
credit risk profile could deteriorate, we capped our ratings on
these notes."
The class X, A-R-R-R, D-R-R-R, and E-R-R-R notes can withstand
stresses commensurate with the assigned ratings.
The class F-R-R-R notes' current break-even default rate cushion is
negative at the assigned rating. S&P said, "Nevertheless, based on
the portfolio's actual characteristics and additional overlaying
factors, including our long-term corporate default rates and recent
economic outlook, we believe this class can sustain a steady-state
scenario, in accordance with our criteria." S&P's analysis further
reflects several factors, including:
-- The class F-R-R-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is
in the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- S&P said, "Our model-generated portfolio default risk, which is
at the 'B-' rating level at 23.99% (for a portfolio with a
weighted-average life of 4.50 years) versus 14.40% if we were to
consider a long-term sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.50
years."
-- Whether the tranche is vulnerable to nonpayment.
-- If there is a one-in-two chance of this tranche defaulting.
-- If S&P envisions this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-R-R-R notes is commensurate with
the assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Considering our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for all rated
classes of notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class X to E-R-R-R notes, based
on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R-R-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being related
to certain activities." Accordingly, since the exclusion of assets
from these industries does not result in material differences
between the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no
specific adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to
account for any ESG-related risks or opportunities.
Arbour CLO II DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade borrowers. Oaktree
Capital Management (UK) LLP manages the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
X AAA (sf) 3.00 N/A Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 0.90%
A-R-R-R AAA (sf) 244.40 38.90 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.27%
B-R-R-R AA (sf) 47.60 27.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.78%
C-R-R-R A (sf) 24.00 21.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.95%
D-R-R-R BBB- (sf) 28.00 14.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.95%
E-R-R-R BB- (sf) 18.00 9.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.80%
F-R-R-R B- (sf) 12.00 6.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 9.21%
Sub notes NR 39.50 N/A N/A
Additional
Sub notes NR 18.75 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class X, A-R-R-R, and B-R-R-R notes
address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. Our
ratings address ultimate interest and principal payments on the
rest of the other rated notes.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
ARES EUROPEAN VIII: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Rating to Class F-RR Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Ares European CLO VIII DAC reset notes
final ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Ares European CLO VIII DAC
A-RR XS3395942447 LT AAAsf New Rating
B-RR XS3395942793 LT AAsf New Rating
C-RR XS3395943171 LT Asf New Rating
D-RR XS3395943502 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E-RR XS3395943924 LT BB-sf New Rating
F-RR XS3395944146 LT B-sf New Rating
Sub Notes XS3395944492 LT NRsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Ares European CLO VIII DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note
proceeds were used to redeem the existing notes, except the
subordinated notes, and to fund the portfolio with a target par of
EUR400 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by Ares Management Limited. The
CLO has a 4.7-year reinvestment period and an 8.7-year weighted
average life (WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors in the identified portfolio at
'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted average rating factor (WARF) of the
identified portfolio is 24.5.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. The recovery
prospects for these assets are more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio is 65.4%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction has various
portfolio concentration limits, including a maximum exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries at 40%. These covenants
ensure that the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has a 4.7-year
reinvestment period and reinvestment criteria similar to those of
other European transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a
stressed-case portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of
the transaction structure against its covenants and portfolio
guidelines.
The transaction includes three Fitch test matrix sets, each
comprising two matrices that correspond to two fixed-rate asset
limits of 5% and 10%. All matrices correspond to a top 10 obligor
limit at 16%. One set is effective at closing, corresponding to an
8.7-year WAL test. Another set, which corresponds to an 8.2-year
WAL test, is effective six months after closing. The third set
corresponds to a 7.2-year WAL test and is effective 18 months after
closing. A switch to the forward matrices is subject to the
satisfaction of the reinvestment target par condition.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio and matrices analysis is 12 months less
than the WAL test covenant, to account for strict reinvestment
conditions after the reinvestment period, including the
satisfaction of over-collateralisation (OC) test and Fitch's 'CCC'
limit tests, plus a consistently decreasing WAL test covenant.
These conditions reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio
during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no negative impact on the class A to E notes,
and lead to a downgrade to below 'B-sf' for the class F notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The class B-RR
notes have a rating cushion of two notches, the class D-RR have
three notches, the class C-RR notes have four notches and the class
E-RR and F-RR notes each have five notches, due to the better
metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than the
Fitch-stressed portfolio. The class A-RR notes have no rating
cushion, as they are rated at the highest achievable rating on
Fitch's scale.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the class A-RR to D-RR notes and to below 'B-sf'
for the class E-RR and F-RR notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to five notches each for the notes, except the
'AAAsf' rated notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than- expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Ares European CLO
VIII DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
ARES EUROPEAN X: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class F Notes to 'BBsf'
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ares European CLO X DAC's class C-R,
D-R, E, and F notes and affirmed the rest. Fitch has also removed
the notes from Under Criteria Observation (UCO).
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Ares European CLO X DAC
B-1-R XS2347649340 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-2-R XS2347650199 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
C-R XS2347650785 LT AAAsf Upgrade AAsf
D-R XS2347651247 LT AA+sf Upgrade A-sf
E XS1859496645 LT BBB+sf Upgrade BB+sf
F XS1859495670 LT BBsf Upgrade BB-sf
Transaction Summary
Ares European CLO X DAC is a cash flow CLO mostly comprising senior
secured obligations. The portfolio is actively managed by Ares
European Loan Management LLP and exited its reinvestment period in
April 2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Amortisation Benefits Rated Notes: The rating affirmations and
upgrades incorporate the combined effect of portfolio performance
and deleveraging as well as Fitch's updated CLOs and Corporate CDOs
Rating Criteria. The transaction has continued to deleverage since
October 2023. According to the latest payment date report, dated 15
July 2026, the class A-R notes have been fully amortised and the
class B-1-R and B-2-R notes have been amortised by EUR40.5 million
(on a pro rata and pari passu basis) since the last review in
September 2025, leading to an increase in credit enhancement (CE)
across the structure. The increase in CE drives the upgrades of the
class C-R to F notes.
CLO Criteria Update: Fitch updated its CLOs and Corporate CDOs
Rating Criteria on 1 June 2026. The updated criteria resulted in an
increase in the weighted average recovery rate to 64.6% from 62.5%
as calculated by Fitch.
Performance Broadly Stable: The portfolio's credit quality has
remained broadly stable, despite a slight deterioration in some of
its metrics over the last 12 months. Exposure to assets with a
Fitch-Derived Rating of 'CCC+' and below increased to 8.9%,
according to the latest monthly report dated July 2026, from 4.4%
at the previous review in August 2025. The transaction has incurred
some par losses, and according to latest monthly report, the
portfolio was at 2.02% below par (calculated as the current par
difference over the original target par), compared to 1.04% below
par at the previous review. The transaction has no defaulted
assets.
Refinancing Risks: The transaction has manageable near- and
medium-term refinancing risk, with no assets maturing in 2026 and
3.1% in 2027. However, 58.5% of its assets have a maturity date in
2028 or 2029.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted average
rating factor (WARF) of the current portfolio is 29.1.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise 99%
of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for these
assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 64.6%.
Concentrating Portfolio: The top 10 obligor concentration, as
calculated by the trustee, is 19.8%, exceeding the test limit of
16% and up from 14.9% at the last review. However, the portfolio is
well-diversified across countries and industries; the three largest
Fitch-defined industries account for 21.3% of exposure, below the
40% test limit. No single obligor exceeds 2.4% of the portfolio
balance. Fitch expects the portfolio to become more concentrated as
it amortises. This is the main factor constraining the rating
upgrade of the class D-R and E notes.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: The transaction exited its
reinvestment period in January 2023. The transaction is currently
failing Fitch's 'CCC' and another agency's rating factor test,
which need to be satisfied for the manager to reinvest. The
weighted average life (WAL) test and Fitch WARF test are also
failing. The manager has not made any purchases since September
2025.
Given that the manager has not been reinvesting and is currently
restricted from reinvestment, Fitch's analysis is based on the
current portfolio to test for downgrades, and the upgrade analysis
is based on the current portfolio with assets on Outlook Negative
notched down by one level with a 'CCC-' floor and with the WAL
floored at four years, according to its criteria.
Model-Implied Rating (MIR) Deviation: The class D-R and E notes are
rated one notch and three notches below their MIRs, respectively,
due to concentration risk. The class F notes are rated one notch
below their MIR, due to a limited cushion against break-even
default rates at the MIR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, which are based on the current portfolio, may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher CE and excess spread available to
cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Ares European CLO X
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
AVOCA CLO XXIII: Fitch's Outlook on 'B-' F Notes Rating Now Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Avoca CLO XXIII DAC's class B-1 and B-2
notes and revised the Outlook on the class F notes to Stable from
Positive. Fitch has also affirmed ratings on the remaining notes,
and removed the class B-1, B-2, C, D, E, and F notes from Under
Criteria Observation (UCO).
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Avoca CLO XXIII DAC
A Loan LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A Notes XS2336488411 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1 XS2336488684 LT AAAsf Upgrade AA+sf
B-2 XS2336488767 LT AAAsf Upgrade AA+sf
C XS2336488841 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
D XS2336489229 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
E XS2336489492 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
F XS2336489575 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Avoca CLO XXIII DAC is a European cash flow CLO predominantly
backed by senior secured obligations (at least 92.5%) with a
component of senior unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and
high-yield bonds. The transaction is actively managed by KKR Credit
Advisors (Ireland) Unlimited Company. The transaction exited its
reinvestment period in October 2025.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
CLO Criteria Update: The rating affirmations and upgrades reflect
the combined effect of Fitch's updated CLOs and Corporate CDOs
Rating Criteria published on 1 June 2026 and portfolio performance.
The positive impact from the updated criteria resulted in an
increase in the weighted average recovery rate to 65% from 59.9%,
as calculated by Fitch.
Senior Notes Benefit from Amortisation: Since its last review in
August 2025, the class A debt has paid down EUR35.2 million. This
amortisation has increased credit enhancement (CE) for the senior
notes, outweighing some additional par losses that have occurred
since its previous review. This has resulted in the upgrade of the
class B-1 and B-2 notes, The affirmation of the other notes
reflects comfortable break-even default rate (BDR) cushions at
their ratings.
Portfolio Performance within Expectation: The portfolio's credit
quality has remained broadly stable over the last 12 months.
Exposure to assets with a Fitch-Derived Rating of 'CCC+' is at
6.5%, according to the latest trustee report dated June 2026,
versus a limit of 7.5%.
The transaction is also passing all its collateral quality tests
apart from a small failure on the Fitch weighted average rating
factor (WARF) and a breach of the weighted average life (WAL) test.
Par losses widened to 1.7% from 1% over the last 12 months but
remain its rating case assumption. The comfortable break-even
default rate cushion supports the affirmation of the class A notes
(which are already at the AAAsf rating) and the class C to F notes
and the Stable Outlook on all notes. The class F notes Outlook was
revised to Stable from Positive following further par losses.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The WARF of the current
portfolio is 26.5 as calculated by Fitch under its latest criteria.
About 15.3% of the portfolio is currently on Negative Outlook.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
99.4% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 65%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 12.8%, and no obligor
represents more than 1.6% of the portfolio balance. Exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries is 26.8% as calculated by
Fitch. Fixed-rate assets as reported by the trustee are at 3.1%,
complying with the limit of 7%.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: Following the CLO's exit
from its reinvestment period in October 2025, the manager only made
one purchase in December 2025. While both the Fitch WARF test and
WAL test are currently failing, the manager can continue to invest
on a maintained-or-improved basis. Given the manager's ability to
cure the test and continue to reinvest, Fitch's analysis is based
on a stressed portfolio and tested the notes' achievable ratings
across the Fitch matrix, since the portfolio can still migrate to
different collateral quality tests.
Deviation from MIR: The class F notes are rated one notch below
their model-implied rating (MIR), given their junior status and to
reduce rating volatility.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, which are based on the current portfolio, may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Avoca CLO XXIII
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
FENIX FINANCE: S&P Assigns Prelim B- (sf) Rating to Class F Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings has assigned its preliminary credit ratings to
Fenix Finance DAC's class A, B, C, D, E, and F notes.
The transaction is backed by a senior loan and two loan notes,
which Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland and Natixis, London
Branch have advanced to Brookfield Asset Management as part of its
refinancing of a pan-European logistics portfolio.
The transaction is secured on a pan-European portfolio of eight
logistics assets in three European jurisdictions. The portfolio
comprises 193,643 square meters (sq m) of accommodation and is
valued at EUR281.2 million as of June 2026. The current
loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is 75% for the securitized debt.
The securitized debt has an initial term of two years and a
12-month extension option. The debt is interest only and includes
cash trap mechanisms. There are no financial default covenants
before a change of control. The loan and loan note proceeds will be
used to refinance the portfolio of logistics assets. Furthermore,
payments due under the loan and the loan notes will primarily fund
the issuer's interest and principal payments due under the notes.
As part of the EU, U.K., and U.S. risk-retention requirements, the
issuer and the issuer lender (Natixis Zweigniederlassung
Deutschland) will enter into an issuer loan agreement for EUR10.5
million (representing 5% of the securitized senior loan) on the
closing date, which ranks pari passu with the notes of each class.
The issuer lender will advance the issuer loan to the issuer on the
closing date. The issuer will apply the issuer loan proceeds as
partial consideration for the purchase of the securitized senior
loan from the loan seller.
S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings on the class A to F notes
address Fenix Finance DAC's ability to meet timely interest
payments and principal repayment no later than the legal final
maturity in July 2036. Our preliminary ratings on the notes reflect
our assessment of the underlying loan's credit, cash flow, and
legal characteristics, and analysis of the transaction's
counterparty and operational risks."
Preliminary ratings
Preliminary
Class Prelim rating* amount (mil. EUR)
A AAA (sf) 57.390
B AA- (sf) 57.067
C A- (sf) 18.478
D BBB- (sf) 20.140
E BB- (sf) 23.104
F B- (sf) 24.149
*S&P's preliminary rating addresses timely payment of interest on
the single class of notes and payment of principal no later than
the legal final maturity.
HENLEY CLO I: S&P Assigns B- (sf) Rating to Class F-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Henley CLO I
DAC's class A-R, B-R, C-R, D-R, E-R, and F-R notes. At closing, the
issuer had EUR34.20 million of unrated subordinated notes
outstanding from the existing transaction and also issued EUR8.33
million of unrated subordinated notes.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing reset
transaction, which S&P rated. The existing classes of notes were
fully redeemed with the proceeds from the issuance of the
replacement notes on the reset date. The ratings on the original
notes have been withdrawn.
The reinvestment period will be approximately 4.5 years, while the
noncall period will be 1.5 years after closing.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless there is a frequency switch event. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payments.
The ratings assigned to the notes reflect S&P's assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,929.74
Default rate dispersion 441.26
Weighted-average life (years) 4.38
Obligor diversity measure 163.73
Industry diversity measure 20.59
Regional diversity measure 1.32
Weighted-average life (years) extended to
cover the length of the reinvestment period 4.51
Transaction key metrics
Total par amount (mil. EUR) 400
Defaulted assets (mil. EUR) 0
Number of performing obligors 190
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 1.49
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 35.86
Actual weighted-average spread net of floors (%) 3.67
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 5.17
Rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'.
"The portfolio is well-diversified at closing, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds. Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by
applying our criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400.00 million target
par amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread of 3.55%, the
covenanted weighted-average coupon of 5.00%, and the identified
weighted-average recovery rate at all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R and C-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned.
However, as the CLO will be in its reinvestment phase starting from
the effective date, during which the transaction's credit risk
profile could deteriorate, we have capped our ratings assigned to
the notes."
The class A-R, D-R, and E-R notes could withstand stresses
commensurate with the assigned ratings.
The class F-R notes' current break-even default rate cushion is
negative at the assigned rating. Nevertheless, based on the
portfolio's actual characteristics and additional overlaying
factors, including S&P's long-term corporate default rates and
recent economic outlook, S&P believes this class is able to sustain
a steady-state scenario, in accordance with its criteria. S&P's
analysis further reflects several factors, including:
-- The class F-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is in
the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- S&P's model-generated portfolio default risk, which is at the
'B-' rating level at 24.83% (for a portfolio with a
weighted-average life of 4.51 years) versus 14.43% if we were to
consider a long-term sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.51
years.
-- Whether the tranche is vulnerable to nonpayment in the near
future.
-- If there is a one-in-two chance for this note to default.
-- If S&P envisions this tranche to default in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-R notes is commensurate with the
assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe that our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for all rated
classes of notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we have also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-R to E-R notes, based on
four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P regards the exposure to environmental, social, and governance
(ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly in line
with our benchmark for the sector.
Primarily due to the diversity of the assets within CLOs, the
exposure to environmental credit factors is viewed as below
average, social credit factors are below average, and governance
credit factors are average.
For this transaction, the documents prohibit assets from being
related to certain activities. Accordingly, since the exclusion of
assets from these industries does not result in material
differences between the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the
sector, no specific adjustments have been made in S&P's rating
analysis to account for any ESG-related risks or opportunities.
Henley CLO I DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade borrowers. Napier Park
Global Capital Ltd. manages the transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate
A-R AAA (sf) 248.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.27%
B-R AA (sf) 41.00 27.75 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.75%
C-R A (sf) 27.00 21.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.95%
D-R BBB- (sf) 28.00 14.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.80%
E-R BB- (sf) 18.00 9.50 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.25%
F-R B- (sf) 13.00 6.25 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.66%
Sub NR 34.20 N/A N/A
Additional sub NR 8.33 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A-R and B-R notes address timely
interest and ultimate principal payments. S&P's ratings address
ultimate interest and principal payments on the other rated notes.
The payment frequency switches to semiannual, and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
Sub--Subordinated notes.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
LOGICLANE I: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Logiclane I CLO DAC's class C and D
notes and removed the class C notes from Under Criteria Observation
(UCO). The rest of the notes have been affirmed as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Logiclane I CLO DAC
A XS2434367962 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B XS2434368697 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
C XS2434369588 LT A+sf Upgrade Asf
D XS2434370248 LT BBBsf Upgrade BBB-sf
E XS2434371055 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
F XS2434371212 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Logiclane I CLO DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
loans (at least 96%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine and second-lien loans. The portfolio is actively managed
by Acer Tree Investment Management LLP. The transaction will exit
its reinvestment period in October 2026.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
CLO Criteria Update: The rating affirmations and upgrades reflect
the effect of Fitch's updated CLOs and Corporate CDOs Rating
Criteria published on 1 June 2026. The positive impact from the
updated criteria resulted in an increase in the weighted average
recovery rate to 64.5% from 61% as calculated by Fitch.
Shorter Risk Horizon: The rating actions also reflect the CLO's
decreasing weighted average life (WAL ) since the last review in
September 2025 which lowers the portfolio's default probability
assumptions in the Fitch Portfolio Credit Model, producing a lower
rating default rate (RDR).
Deteriorating Performance: The portfolio's credit quality has
deteriorated since the last review. In the latest trustee report,
dated July 2026, exposure to obligors with a Negative Outlook
increased to 24.6% of the aggregate collateral balance from 14.7%
in September 2025. Defaulted obligations also increased to EUR8.2
million (based on Fitch's calculations as of 18 July) from
EUR520,000 in September 2025. Par losses are at 2% of the original
target balance, due mainly to more defaulted assets (versus 0.5%
below target par in September 2025).
According to the trustee report dated 3 July, the deal has been
failing the WAL test since April 2026 and exceeds the fixed-rate
asset limit since July 2026. Trading is currently conducted on a
maintain-or-improve basis since the deal is still in the
reinvestment period until October 2026.
Low Refinancing Risks: The transaction has manageable near- and
medium-term refinancing risk, with 0.6% maturing in 2027 and 7.9%
in 2028.
B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of the
underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating factor
of the current portfolio is 25.8, as calculated by Fitch under its
latest criteria.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
97.9% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 64.5%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 17.8%, and no obligor
represents more than 2.7% of the portfolio balance.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, which are based on the current portfolio, may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Logiclane I CLO
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
NORTHWOODS CAPITAL 26: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating to Cl F-2-R Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to Northwoods
Capital 26 Euro DAC's A Loan and the class X, A-R, B-R, C-R, D-1-R,
D-2-R, E-R, F-1-R, and F-2-R notes. At closing, the issuer had
unrated subordinated notes outstanding from the existing
transaction.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
which S&P rates. The existing classes of notes were fully redeemed
with the proceeds from the issuance of the replacement notes on the
reset date. The ratings on the original notes have been withdrawn.
The reinvestment period will be approximately 4.6 years, while the
noncall period will be 1.5 years after closing.
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes and loan will pay
quarterly interest unless a frequency switch event occurs.
Following this, the notes and loan will switch to semiannual
payments.
The ratings assigned to the reset notes and loan reflect S&P's
assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,716.46
Default rate dispersion 618.88
Weighted-average life (years) 4.26
Weighted-average life (years) extended
to cover the length of the reinvestment period 4.56
Obligor diversity measure 143.26
Industry diversity measure 24.88
Regional diversity measure 1.32
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.67
Target 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.12%
Actual weighted-average spread net of floors (%) 3.50
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 3.35
Rating rationale
S&P said, "Our ratings reflect our assessment of the collateral
portfolio's credit quality, which has a weighted-average rating of
'B'.
"The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and bonds.
Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash flow analysis by
applying our criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR450.00 million target
par amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread of 3.40%, the
covenanted weighted-average coupon of 4.50%, and the targeted
weighted-average recovery rate at all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R and C-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned.
However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase starting
from the effective date, during which the transaction's credit risk
profile could deteriorate, we capped our ratings on these notes."
The A Loan and class X, A-R, D-1-R, D-2-R, E-R and F-1-R notes
could withstand stresses commensurate with the assigned ratings.
S&P's credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-2-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with a lower rating. However, S&P applied its
'CCC' rating criteria, resulting in a 'B- (sf)' rating on this
class of notes.
The ratings uplift for the class F-2-R notes reflects several key
factors, including:
-- The class F-2-R notes' available credit enhancement, which is
in the same range as that of other CLOs S&P has rated and that has
recently been issued in Europe.
-- The portfolio's average credit quality, which is similar to
other recent CLOs.
-- S&P's model-generated portfolio default risk, which is at the
'B-' rating level at 21.25% (for a portfolio with a
weighted-average life of 4.56 years) versus 14.59% if it was to
consider a long-term sustainable default rate of 3.2% for 4.56
years.
-- S&P does not believe that there is a one-in-two chance of this
tranche defaulting.
-- S&P does not envision this tranche defaulting in the next 12-18
months.
S&P said, "Following this analysis, we consider that the available
credit enhancement for the class F-2-R notes is commensurate with
the assigned 'B- (sf)' rating.
"Considering our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for all rated
classes of notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the A Loan and class X to E-R notes,
based on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-1-R and F-2-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
Northwoods Capital 26 Euro DAC is a European cash flow CLO
securitization of a revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated
senior secured loans and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade
borrowers. Northwoods European CLO Management LLC manages the
transaction.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
X AAA (sf) 6.10 N/A Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.03%
A-R AAA (sf) 136.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.35%
A Loan AAA (sf) 143.00 38.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 1.35%
B-R AA (sf) 49.50 27.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.00%
C-R A (sf) 27.00 21.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 2.30%
D-1-R BBB- (sf) 29.30 14.49 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 3.75%
D-2-R BBB- (sf) 5.00 13.38 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 5.25%
E-R BB- (sf) 15.20 10.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 6.50%
F-1-R B- (sf) 9.00 8.00 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 8.28%
F-2-R B- (sf) 6.80 6.49 Three/six-month EURIBOR
plus 10.37%
Sub. notes NR 33.95 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the A Loan and the class X, A-R, and B-R
notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments.
S&P's ratings address ultimate interest and principal payments on
the rest of the other rated notes.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
Sub. notes--Subordinated notes.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
SOUND POINT V: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Class F Debts
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sound Point Euro CLO V Funding DAC's
ratings and removed classes B-1/B-2, C, D, E and F from Under
Criteria Observation, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Sound Point Euro CLO V
Funding DAC
A Loan LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A Note XS2311365410 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1 XS2311366061 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
B-2 XS2311366731 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
C-1 XS2311367382 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
C-2 XS2315958996 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
D XS2311368190 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
E XS2311368943 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
F XS2311369081 LT B+sf Affirmed B+sf
Transaction Summary
Sound Point Euro CLO V Funding DAC is a European cash flow
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) predominantly backed by senior
secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. The
transaction is actively managed by Sound Point CLO C-MOA, LLC. The
transaction exited its reinvestment period in July 2026.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
CLO Criteria Update: The affirmations incorporate the combined
effect of Fitch's updated CLOs and Corporate CDOs Rating Criteria,
published on 1 June 2026, and portfolio performance. The positive
impact from the updated criteria, which resulted in an increase in
the weighted average recovery rate to 65.6% from 61.9%, as
calculated by Fitch, was offset by deteriorating performance.
The transaction is currently 0.7% below par (calculated as the
difference between the current par amount and the original target
par) compared with being above par at the last review in August
2025. Exposure to assets with a Fitch-derived rating of 'CCC+' or
lower has risen to 3.8% from 0.2% at the last review, according to
the latest trustee report dated 1 July 2026. The default rate
cushions remain sufficient to support the current ratings, which
underlines the notes' affirmation and their Stable Outlooks.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: Following the CLO's exit
from its reinvestment period in July 2026, the manager faces strict
conditions for reinvestment. As of July 2026, the transaction was
breaching the weighted average life (WAL) test; if the WAL test is
failing as of the last day of the reinvestment period, the manager
may still reinvest if the WAL test would be satisfied after such
reinvestment. Fitch tested the ratings for upgrades based on a
stressed portfolio, with a WAL floor of four years under its
criteria, across the Fitch test matrix set out in the
documentation.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor of the current portfolio is 24.8, as calculated by Fitch
under its latest criteria. About 11.6% of the portfolio is
currently on Negative Outlook.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
99.6% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 65.7%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 11.1%, and no obligor
represents more than 1.3% of the portfolio balance. Exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries is 32%, as calculated by
Fitch. Fixed-rate assets, as reported by the trustee, are 2.4%,
currently complying with the limit of 10%.
Deviation from MIRs: The class B-1/B-2 ratings of 'AA+sf' and the
class C-1/C-2 ratings of 'A+sf' are a deviation from their
model-implied ratings (MIRs) of 'AAAsf' and 'AA-sf', respectively.
The deviation reflects limited cushion on the stressed portfolio at
the MIRs.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, based on the current portfolio, may occur if loss
expectations are higher than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may occur if portfolio credit quality remains stable and
deleveraging continue, increasing credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies in assessing the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied on for the agency's
rating analysis, in accordance with to its applicable rating
methodologies, indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Sound Point Euro
CLO V Funding DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================
MICROFINANCE ORGANIZATION: Fitch Assigns 'B' IDR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Microfinance Organisation MyCar Finance
LLP (MCF) a Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'B' and a
National Long-Term Rating of 'BB(kaz)'. The Outlooks are Stable.
Key Rating Drivers
Standalone Assessment: MCF's Long-Term IDR is driven by its 'b'
standalone credit profile, reflecting adequate profitability,
moderate leverage and improving asset quality. The rating also
incorporates the company's established but narrow franchise,
concentrated funding and links to its parent group - Astana Motors
- the largest automotive distributor and manufacturer in
Kazakhstan.
Competitive Pressures: MCF accounted for about 4% of auto loans
issued in Kazakhstan in 2025, but its market share declined sharply
in 2023-2025 amid strong growth in banks' auto lending. Fitch views
MCF's franchise as established and domestically relevant, supported
by scale, group linkage and collateralised lending, but it is
constrained by limited business diversification, weakening credit
performance and concentrated funding.
Legacy Impaired Loans: Fitch views MCF's asset quality as
improving, but still weaker than that of higher-rated peers. Asset
quality is supported by a granular portfolio of local-currency
loans to individuals, secured by passenger vehicles with strong
liquidity in the secondary market. However, asset quality remains
burdened by legacy impaired loans arising from deferred-payment
lending, a business line the company discontinued in 2024 after
recognising its associated heightened credit risk.
Impaired loans ratio improved to 9.5% at end-2025 from 11.6% a year
earlier (end-2021: 0.8%), while loan vintages have also
demonstrated significant improvement with default rates falling
below 4%. Coverage of impaired loans with loss allowances was
strong at 82% at end-2025, despite underlying collateral.
Volatile Profitability: Profitability has weakened since it peaked
in 2022, driven by tighter underwriting standards, increasing
funding costs and regulatory restrictions on commissions. MCF's net
interest margin moderated to 4.8% in 2025 from 7.4% in 2022, while
its cost/income ratio weakened to 40% in 2025 from 25% in 2022.
Pre-tax income/average assets ratio was modest 2.4% in 2025 (2022:
6%). Fitch expects profitability to gradually improve in 2026-2027
due to lower funding costs and improving cost of risk; impaired
charges/average loans fell to 1.1% in 2025 from an average 4% in
2022-2024.
Moderate Leverage: Modest growth and profit retention have
supported MCF's strong internal capital generation, allowing it to
build up capital. The tangible equity/tangible assets ratio
improved to 17% at end-2025 from 12% at end-2022. The company's
focus on granular and liquid assets with adequate downpayments and
sound coverage of impaired loans result in a resonable loss
absorption capacity.
Concentrated Funding, Group Benefits: Fitch views MCF's funding
profile as constrained by a high reliance on one bank and the
predominance of secured funding. However, funding access benefits
from MCF being part of a large group, which Fitch believes enhances
its ability to obtain funding from Halyk Bank beyond what is
typically available to independent non-bank financial institutions.
Liquidity is supported by the absence of on-demand liabilities and
borrowers' historical tendency for prepayment.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- An increase in MCF's gross debt/tangible equity to above 7x,
particularly if driven by losses; a deterioration in asset quality,
with impaired loans ratio exceeding 10%; signs of significant
worsening of the funding profile; or financial difficulties at the
broader group
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Seasoning of the business model, alongside more diversified
funding, lower unhedged FX exposure and maintaining tight control
over credit risk and operating efficiency
ADJUSTMENTS
The sector risk operating environment score of 'bb-' has been
assigned below the implied score of 'bbb' due to the following
adjustment reason(s): regulatory and legal framework (negative).
The business profile of 'b' score has been assigned below the
implied score of 'bb' due to the following adjustment reason(s):
historical and future developments (negative).
The earnings and profitability score of 'b' has been assigned below
the implied score of 'bb' due to the following adjustment
reason(s): earnings stability (negative).
The capitalisation and leverage score of 'b' has been assigned
below the implied score of 'bb' due to the following adjustment
reason(s): risk profile and business model (negative).
The funding, liquidity and coverage score of 'b-' has been assigned
above the implied score of 'ccc' due to the following adjustment
reason(s): business model/funding market convention (positive).
Date of Relevant Committee
30-Jul-2026
ESG Considerations
MCF has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure due
to ownership concentration and related key person risk, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
rating in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Microfinance
Organisation Mycar
Finance LLP LT IDR B New Rating
ST IDR B New Rating
LC LT IDR B New Rating
LC ST IDR B New Rating
Natl LT BB(kaz) New Rating
===========
K O S O V O
===========
KOSOVO: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kosovo's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT
FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Outlook.
The ratings are supported by Kosovo's low and stable public debt, a
record of prudent fiscal policy and a sound banking sector. These
factors are balanced by longstanding geopolitical risks, including
a lack of full international recognition, a small economy and weak
external finances. Near-term GDP growth is supported by a steady
inflow of concessional funds as well as FDI, largely from the
diaspora, partially mitigating risks from ongoing political
uncertainty.
Key Rating Drivers
Heightened Political Uncertainty: In June 2026, Kosovo held its
third parliamentary elections in under 18 months. The incumbent
Vetevendosje party, with 53 out of 120 seats, will likely be able
to form a coalition government again, but its ability to muster
sufficient votes to elect a president will still be constrained,
heightening the risk of fresh parliamentary elections by end-2026.
Repeated delays to the formation of a stable government could
impede effective implementation of reforms.
Key reforms include energy market liberalisation, improving
judicial efficiency, regulatory convergence with the EU and entry
into the Single Euro Payments Area. Also, as external borrowing
needs a two-thirds majority in parliament, contracting new external
financing arrangements could be difficult. Finally, execution of
large capex projects could also face some risks.
Low Fiscal Deficits: In Fitch's view, the government remains
committed to its three key fiscal rules that place limits on the
budget deficit, general government debt and rate of nominal public
sector wage growth. The general government budget recorded a
surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 1H26, driven mainly by an under-execution
of overall expenditure.
Fitch expects a full-year deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2026 (current
'BB' median: 3.5%), largely unchanged thereafter, as the government
aims to implement ambitious capex projects (planned capex budget
increases of 18% on average in 2026-2028), and raise some social
spending. Capex execution rates have risen in recent years, but
Fitch expects challenges in execution in 2H26 as reform momentum
slows.
Very Low Debt: General government debt was 16.5% of GDP in 2025,
the second-lowest amid 'BB' rated sovereigns, and well below the
debt ceiling of 40%. In February 2026, parliament approved key
external borrowing, including 1.3% of GDP in loans from Germany's
KfW and France's AFD, while a EUR90.3 million (0.8% of GDP) World
Bank loan was fully disbursed in March.
New Borrowing Depends on Reforms: Parliament approved borrowing
under the EU's Reform and Growth Facility, with a total envelope of
EUR882.6 million (7.4% of GDP, including grants). Disbursements are
conditional upon meeting reform milestones by end-2027, but Fitch
expects limited progress amid the political crisis, raising the
risk that some funds will be lost. Fitch treats Kosovo's debt as
100% FC-denominated, consistent with its unilateral adoption of the
euro as legal tender. As of 2025, 89% of government debt was
euro-denominated, mitigating currency risk. Fitch forecasts
interest/revenue to average 1.7% in 2026-2028, well below the
projected 'BB' median.
Weak External Finances: Kosovo has consistently run large current
account deficits, mainly owing to a very large goods deficit (2025:
51% of GDP). Fitch expects the current account deficit to average
8.4% of GDP in 2026-2028. About 70% of FDI is durably made up of
diaspora inflows and is concentrated in real estate. International
reserves will stabilise at about 1.8 months of current external
payments in 2026-2028. Kosovo also benefits from the availability
of a EUR100 million repo line with the ECB, which has been extended
until January 2027.
Stable Growth Prospects: The economy grew by a robust 5.4% yoy in
1Q26, driven by strong government consumption as well as net
exports, notwithstanding the political crisis. High inflation
resulting mainly from the energy price impact (CPI averaged 6.4%
yoy in 1H26) dampened domestic demand, but a 13th-month salary for
public sector workers and a cumulative 43% increase in the minimum
wage in 2026, as well as stable remittances will provide support
for consumption. Fitch expects real economic growth to gradually
converge to the medium-term potential of 4% by 2028.
Relations with Serbia and EU: There has been no meaningful progress
in Serbia relations following a normalisation plan agreed in 2023
under the aegis of the EU. Kosovo is currently an EU 'potential
candidate country', but lacks recognition by five EU member states,
and Fitch does not expect notable progress with accession at
present.
Stable Banking Sector: The banking sector is profitable, with a
return on average equity of 16.9% as of May 2026, solid asset
quality (June 2026: non-performing loans ratio of 2%) and adequate
capitalisation (Tier 1 capital ratio of 16.3%). Macro-prudential
measures by the central bank target capital requirements for banks
and do not entail borrower-based measures. Foreign-owned banks make
up 82.2% of the sector, of which over half are EU bank-owned,
supporting prudential standards.
ESG-Governance: Kosovo has a medium WBGI ranking at the 47th
percentile, reflecting a moderate level of rights for participation
in the political process, moderate institutional capacity,
relatively established rule of law, a moderate level of corruption,
and political risks associated with relations with Serbia.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Structural: Sustained political paralysis, impeding the functioning
of government or escalation of tensions with Serbia that have a
materially negative impact on macro-fiscal metrics
External Finances: A marked increase in external financing risk,
for example, due to a sizeable drop in the availability of external
concessional financing, remittances or net FDI
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Structural: Sustained reduction in domestic political risk and/or
improvement in relations with Serbia, underpinning faster
international recognition and integration with EU economies
External: Reduction in external financing risk, for example, due to
a marked rise in international reserves, potentially reflecting
stronger and more diversified capital inflows
Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Kosovo a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB' on the LT FC IDR scale.
Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM
applying its QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows:
Structural: -1 notch, to reflect risks from unresolved tensions
with Serbia, which also constrain full international recognition,
adding to political risk and adversely affecting the business
environment
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.
Debt Instruments: Key Rating Drivers
Fitch does not currently rate any debt instruments for this
sovereign.
Country Ceiling
The Country Ceiling for Kosovo is 'BBB-', three notches above the
LT FC IDR. This reflects very strong constraints and incentives,
relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange controls being
imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private
sector from converting LC into FC and transferring the proceeds to
non-resident creditors to service debt payments.
Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of
+3 notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a
qualitative adjustment to the model result.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
There is no Climate Vulnerability Signal (Climate.VS) for Kosovo
due to the limited availability of data. However, Fitch is able to
produce a Climate.VS for transition risk, which is 35 in 2035.
Fitch has also qualitatively considered Kosovo's potential exposure
to physical risks and concluded that these climate risk factors are
sufficiently captured in the SRM.
ESG Considerations
Kosovo has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability
and Rights, as the WBGI have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and
are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver
with a high weight. As Kosovo has a percentile rank below 50 for
the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on
the credit profile.
Kosovo has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality, and Control of Corruption, as
the WBGI have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore
highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high
weight. As Kosovo has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective
governance indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit
profile.
Kosovo has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms, as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
WBGI is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Kosovo has a
percentile rank above 50 for the respective governance indicator,
this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Kosovo has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for International
Relations and Trade, as the lack of full international recognition
is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver, with a negative
impact on the credit profile.
Kosovo has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights, as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Kosovo, as for all sovereigns. As Kosovo has
a record of 20+ years without a restructuring of public debt,
captured in its SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the
credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Kosovo LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
ST IDR B Affirmed B
Country Ceiling BBB- Affirmed BBB-
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
SPEED MIDCO: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'B+' ICR
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook to negative from stable and
affirmed its 'B+' long-term issuer credit rating on Speed Midco
S.a.r.l. and its financing subsidiary Speed Midco 3 S.a.r.l. S&P
affirmed the 'B+' rating on the company's senior secured debt and
kept the recovery rating at '3' which reflects its expectation of
about 50% recovery in the event of default.
The negative outlook reflects our opinion that S&P could downgrade
Speed Midco over the next 12-18 months if the company's credit
metrics do not improve with debt to EBITDA toward 5.5x and adjusted
free operating cash flow (FOCF) remains above $100 million.
S&P said, "We anticipate that Speed Midco S.a.r.l., will report
lower-than-anticipated revenue and EBITDA growth in the next 12-18
months, due to lower application volumes, and challenging
macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
"As a result, we expect Speed Midco to display S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA of 6.2x-6.6x in 2026 (compared with
6.8x in 2025) improving to 5.5x-6.0x in 2027, with limited rating
headroom if operating performance worsens. This is higher leverage
than our previous expectations of 5.0x-5.5x in 2026.
"The negative outlook indicates that Speed Midco' deleveraging
trajectory could now be slower than we expected. The company's
leverage increased to 6.8x in 2025 from 5.4x in 2024 following an
increase in debt to $2.5 billion from $2.0 billion in 2025 as the
company drew down an additional $70 million on its revolving credit
facility (RCF) and approximately $100 million of bilateral for the
acquisition of CiX Citizen Experience, a digital and physical
citizen services provider based in Brazil. The debt increase also
reflects the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations (U.S. dollar
weakening year on year), higher long-term leases and earn-outs. In
addition, S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA was below expectations
at $387 million in 2025, mainly driven by higher-than-expected
exceptional costs of $57 million. For 2026, we anticipate that
leverage will begin to improve to 6.2x-6.6x, deleveraging at a
slower pace than we previously expected. This revision mainly
reflects our expectation of lower revenue and S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA in 2026-2027.
"We forecast lower than previously expected growth in Speed Midco's
revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, driven by lower
growth in application volumes. We now project revenue to increase
to $1.15 billion-$1.30 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year
growth of 2%-5%, and to increase further to $1.2 billion-$1.4
billion in 2027. This downward revision reflects lower expected
application volumes growth due to the geopolitical conflict in the
Gulf region, and evolving immigration policies across key markets.
While these factors affected performance in the first half of 2026,
we expect growth to strengthen in the second half of the year,
supported by recently secured government contracts, recovery in the
Middle East, and price increases.
"We expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins to be lower
at 33%-34% in 2026-2027 (compared with 36%-37% previously), driven
by lower fixed-cost absorption despite cost-saving measures. We
also believe one-time costs, including advisory costs on
acquisitions, enterprise resource planning implementation costs,
and severance costs, will continue to pressure S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted EBITDA. As a result, S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA is now expected to be $380 million-$420 million in 2026 and
$400 million-$450 million in 2027.
"We expect solid FOCF from fiscal 2026 onward. FOCF was negative in
2025, reflecting one-off working capital outflow, finance charges
related to the refinancing, significant capital expenditure (capex)
of approximately $114 million as the company incurred exceptional
capex to roll out new application centers. For 2026 we expect FOCF
to recover to $90 million-$110 million, and to $120 million-$150
million in 2027 as capex moderates to $80 million-$90 million.
Historically, Speed Midco has exhibited low capex intensity,
generally spending less than 5% of revenue."
Speed Midco's business profile continues to reflect its global
leadership in visa application outsourcing and strong barriers to
entry. Speed Midco's market share has expanded in the last few
years, and the company enjoys a strong dominant position, while its
closest competitors, GDIT and TLS remain far smaller. The company
is well placed to capture structural industry tailwinds, including
increasing outbound travel from emerging markets, rising passport
penetration, and stricter geopolitical and security-related visa
requirements.
S&P said, "We positively note the company's medium-term contract
structure, typically spanning three to five years, which provides
some revenue visibility. The average relationship length is about
10 years and Speed Midco has achieved high customer retention rates
and new business wins recently. Additionally, we expect the company
to benefit from recent contract wins with key client governments in
the Asia-Pacific and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa regions,
among others with a total additional application volume of around
1.5 million. Speed Midco has demonstrated a strong track record of
contract retention and success in competitive tender processes,
providing some degree of stability and predictability to its cash
flows.
"Our financial risk profile assessment also considers the group's
private equity ownership and its tolerance for high leverage. We do
not anticipate any further distributions in the short to medium
term. If the company's financial policy becomes increasingly
aggressive, with debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder returns,
we anticipate this would put downward pressure on credit metrics
and delay deleveraging.
"Our negative outlook reflects our opinion that we could downgrade
Speed Midco over the next 12-18 months if the company's credit
metrics do not improve with debt to EBITDA toward 5.5x and S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted FOCF above $100 million.
"We could lower the rating if we no longer believe that adjusted
leverage will improve to around or below 5.5x by fiscal 2027 or if
Speed Midco fails to generate strong positive FOCF. This could
occur in the event of weaker travel demand or the loss of a
significant customer resulting in lower-than-expected visa
application volumes. This could also result from a material
debt-financed acquisition or any dividend distribution that would
derail the deleveraging that we forecast.
"We could revise the outlook to stable if we believe that there is
evidence of a more conservative financial policy in addition to
deleveraging through EBITDA growth to sustainably below 5.5x. This
could also occur as a result of debt repayments and a commitment
from the financial sponsor to maintain lower leverage."
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
TRUENOORD B.V: Fitch Assigns 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned TrueNoord B.V. a Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) of 'BB-' with Stable Outlook. Concurrently,
Fitch has withdrawn TrueNoord Limited's 'BB-' Long-Term with Stable
Outlook.
Fitch has withdrawn TrueNoord Limited's rating as the entity has
ceased to exist following its acquisition by Arcus Infrastructure
Partners (Arcus) as the new 74% majority shareholder and
incorporation of TrueNoord B.V. as a new legal entity holding the
aviation platform. Freshstream Investment Partners LLP and
management retain the remaining minority ownership. The transaction
closed on 29 July 2026.
Key Rating Drivers
The Long-Term IDR of TrueNoord B.V. is aligned with TrueNoord
Limited's previous rating as the credit profile, business and risk
profiles of both entities are identical. For more details, see
"Fitch Affirms TrueNoord Limited at 'BB-'; Outlook Stable".
TrueNoord Capital Designated Activity Company's (TrueNoord Capital
DAC) existing long-term unsecured debt rating of 'BB-' is
unaffected by this rating action as TrueNoord B.V. as the successor
legal entity has assumed all remaining outstanding debt.
Scale Constrains Ratings: TrueNoord B.V.'s ratings continue to
reflect its moderate market position as a global, full-service
lessor of regional jets and turboprop aircraft, reasonable
leverage, limited near-term maturities and sound liquidity.
Constraints include its smaller scale than peers', execution risk
from growth plans and higher residual value risk related to
regional jets and turboprop aircraft than rated peers.
Sector Rating Constraints: Broader rating constraints for aircraft
lessors include the monoline nature of the business, exposure to
residual value risks, reliance on wholesale funding and
vulnerability to exogenous shocks. These shocks include sensitivity
to higher oil prices, inflation and unemployment, which could
negatively affect travel demand. The ongoing Iran conflict also
raises the risk of protracted jet fuel shortages. Airlines globally
have responded by cutting capacity on less-profitable routes, but
lessors may still face increased requests for lease deferrals. If
granted, deferrals could erode liquidity and internal capital
generation over time.
Stable Outlook: The Stable Outlook reflects its expectation that
TrueNoord B.V. will manage its balance sheet to maintain sufficient
headroom relative to its negative rating sensitivities. It also
reflects Fitch's expectations of appropriate asset quality,
sufficient operating cash flow, improved funding flexibility, and
sound liquidity. The takeover by Arcus, an infrastructure fund
manager, of 74% of the business, on 29 July 2026, is credit-neutral
in its view, as Fitch does not expect changes in TrueNoord B.V.'s
corporate policy. Its current USD50 million preference shares are
to be replaced with common equity, simplifying and streamlining the
capital structure.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
TrueNoord B.V.'s Long-Term IDR is sensitive to a weakening of
projected long-term cash flow generation, net spreads weakening to
2.5% or below over a sustained period, liquidity coverage falling
below 1x, and an increase in gross leverage above 3x for an
extended period.
Macroeconomic or geopolitical risks that pressure airlines and lead
to lease restructurings and rejections, lessee defaults, and larger
losses would also be negative for the ratings.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The ratings could benefit in the medium term from enhanced scale,
as manifested in lessee diversification, reduced exposure to weaker
airlines, low asset impairment ratios, and a reduction in the share
of Tier 3 aircraft as categorised by Fitch.
Net spreads in excess of 3% over a sustained period, unsecured debt
approaching in excess of 35%, while maintaining liquidity coverage
in excess of 1.2x could also be positive for ratings.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Senior Unsecured Debt Equalised: TrueNoord Capital DAC's senior
unsecured debt rating of 'BB-' is equalised with TrueNoord B.V.'s
Long-Term IDR. This is due to TrueNoord B.V.'s and other material
subsidiaries' guarantee for TrueNoord Capital DAC and also reflects
average recovery prospects in the event of financial distress,
given the availability of unencumbered assets.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The senior unsecured debt rating is primarily sensitive to changes
in TrueNoord B.V.'s Long-Term IDR and, secondarily, to the relative
recovery prospects of the debt instruments. A decline in projected
unencumbered asset coverage, combined with a material increase in
secured debt, could result in notching down the unsecured debt
rating from TrueNoord B.V. 's Long-Term IDR.
ADJUSTMENTS
The standalone credit profile of 'bb-' has been assigned in line
with the implied standalone credit profile.
The sector risk operating environment score of 'bbb' has been
assigned in line with the implied score.
The business profile score of 'b+' has been assigned in line with
the implied score.
The asset quality score of 'b+' has been assigned below the 'bbb'
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): risk
profile and business model (negative).
The earnings and profitability score of 'bb-' has been assigned in
line with the implied score.
The capitalisation and leverage score of 'bb' has been assigned
below the 'bbb' implied score due to the following adjustment
reason(s): risk profile and business model (negative).
The funding, liquidity and coverage score of 'bb-' has been
assigned in line with the implied score.
ESG Considerations
TrueNoord B.V. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance
Structure, due to its limited board independence and the complexity
of its ownership structure. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with
other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
TrueNoord Limited LT IDR WD Withdrawn BB-
TrueNoord Capital
Designated Activity
Company
senior unsecured LT BB- Affirmed BB-
Takeoff BidCo B.V. LT IDR BB- New Rating
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ASTON MARTIN: Fitch Lowers Rating on Sr. Secured Notes to 'CCC'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Aston Martin Capital Holdings
Limited's senior secured debt rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC+' and
revised its Recovery Rating to 'RR5' from 'RR4'. Fitch has also
affirmed Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC's (AML) Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CCC+'.
The downgrade reflects new GBP550 million loan facilities, which
Fitch treats as ranking above the debt in the restricted group in
its recovery analysis. The facilities benefit from a different, and
Fitch believes structurally senior, security package relative to
its bondholders. This, combined with limited visibility on the
underlying collateral, reduces recovery prospects for the senior
secured notes.
The IDR reflects ongoing liquidity support and Fitch's expectation
of a material reduction in negative free cash flow (FCF) in 2026
driven by Valhalla model deliveries, an improved product mix and
cost optimisation. It also reflects AML's continued negative FCF,
tight liquidity and dependence on shareholder support or additional
debt financing.
Key Rating Drivers
Debt Raise Dilutes Bondholder Security: AML completed a GBP550
million debt raise on 22 July 2026, comprising a GBP450 million
senior secured term loan and a GBP100 million delayed-draw term
loan maturing July 2031. Fitch believes the new debt, secured
against assets held in a newly incorporated subsidiary and other
group assets, has significantly diluted the security position of
the company's existing senior secured bondholders. Full details of
the security package have not been disclosed to counter this view.
Proceeds from the GBP450 million term loan were applied to repay
and cancel the company's fully drawn super senior revolving credit
facility (RCF) of GBP170 million and the amount drawn under the Yew
Tree Consortium's GBP50 million shareholder loan facility of GBP20
million, which was also cancelled. The remaining GBP260 million,
less fees, will be used for general corporate purposes. The GBP100
million delayed-draw term loan remains undrawn.
New Loan Facilities Improve Liquidity: Total reported liquidity at
end-2Q26 was GBP145 million, down from GBP250 million at end-2025,
after negative FCF of GBP198 million in 1H26. The GBP450 million
loan drawdown in July 2026 will lift pro-forma liquidity to about
GBP340 million as at 30 June 2026, with a further GBP100 million
available from the delayed-draw term loan. The new facilities
provide additional flexibility, and Fitch does not forecast a need
for additional funding until 2028.
Cash Burn to Continue: Fitch expects negative FCF in 1H26 to
account for most of the full-year cash outflow. An enhanced product
mix, including about 500 Valhalla deliveries, a more balanced
production cadence, and reduced capex of about GBP300 million in
2026 (2025: GBP341 million) will support a material reduction in
Fitch-calculated negative FCF to about GBP200 million in 2026, from
GBP422 million in 2025. Persistent challenges from US tariffs,
subdued China and Asia-Pacific demand, and geopolitical uncertainty
weigh on volume and pricing. Fitch has revised upwards its
2026-2029 cash burn expectations, following the new lending, due to
higher interest payments.
Shareholder Support Vital: Shareholder support remains vital given
AML's continued negative FCF and tight liquidity. The new GBP550
million loan facilities will provide some headroom over the next
18-24 months. However, barring a material improvement in
profitability, AML will likely require continued shareholder
support or additional debt financing in the medium term, which
Fitch incorporates into its rating case. A GBP50 million facility
from Yew Tree Consortium members, now cancelled, reflects sponsor
commitment following its 2025 capital increase.
Margins Improve in1H26: AML's stronger product mix and cost-savings
measures supported improved financial performance in 1H26. Gross
margin rose to 33.8% in 1H26 from 27.9% in 1H25, driven by 220
Valhalla deliveries, transformation benefits and a 17% increase in
total average selling price. Management has maintained its 2026
guidance, targeting gross margin in the high-30s percentages and a
material improvement in adjusted EBIT margin towards break-even.
Fitch expects ongoing cost optimisation to result in less negative
FCF.
Order Book Visibility Remains Low: AML lacks meaningful revenue
visibility, unlike its leading luxury peers. The core orderbook
remained stable throughout 1H26, providing visibility of up to five
months, while Valhalla orders extend towards end-4Q26. AML has made
progress in aligning production with demand, with core retail
volumes outpacing wholesale by over 30% in 1H26. Fitch expects its
expanded model range, including DBX S, Vantage S and DB12 S, to
support demand.
Peer Analysis
AML is the car manufacturer with the highest leverage and weakest
FCF generation among Fitch-rated auto original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs). Its leverage and cash generation compare
unfavourably with those of OEMs in the premium and mass-market
subsectors. Fitch expects FCF generation to progressively improve,
but remain negative until 2029 as the company navigates challenges
from the US tariff quota mechanism, subdued demand in China and
Asia-Pacific, and broader geopolitical uncertainty including the
Middle East conflict.
AML's brand is well-recognised in the luxury sector. However,
management's focus on creating product scarcity and desirability
with special editions and model variants has not yet translated
into demand and orders that are aligned with that of leading peers
in the industry.
AML is also one of the smallest Fitch-rated auto manufacturers. Its
business depends on the manufacturing and sale of a limited number
of models, similar to McLaren Holding's. This dependence could
result in greater cash flow volatility than at peers.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Strong revenue growth of about GBP1.5 billion in 2026, led by
deliveries of specials, with a modest contribution from core
models, followed by CAGR of about 2% in 2027-2029
- Fitch-calculated EBITDA margin improving to 21% in 2029 from
almost 19% in 2026, driven by higher gross margins from specials
and off-platform models, as well as efforts to rationalise the cost
base
- Net working capital outflows averaging 1% of revenue over
2026-2029
- Annual capex averaging about GBP300 million over 2026-2029
- Drawdown of delayed term loan in 2027, followed by large cash
capital injections in 2028-2029 to cover FCF shortfall
- Restricted cash at about 2.5% of sales
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bb-', Lower), sector characteristics
('bbb-', Lower), market and competitive positioning ('bb-',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('b', Moderate),
company operational characteristics ('ccc+', Moderate),
profitability ('ccc+', Higher), financial structure ('ccc-',
Moderate), and financial flexibility ('ccc+', Higher).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast year
2027.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and have no impact.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'aa-' has no impact.
The SCP is 'ccc+'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of
'CCC+'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that AML would be reorganised as a
going concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
Fitch ranks the senior secured notes (GBP565 million and USD1,050
million) and other bank debt as subordinated to the new GBP550
million financing (GBP450 million senior secured term loan and
GBP100 million delayed-draw term loan) and a GBP40 million
inventory finance facility.
Fitch uses Fitch-adjusted EBITDA of GBP250 million to reflect its
view of a sustainable, post-reorganisation EBITDA on which Fitch
bases the enterprise valuation.
Fitch uses a multiple of 4.0x to estimate the going-concern EBITDA
to reflect the company's post-reorganisation enterprise value. The
multiple incorporates AML's brand value and engineering expertise
as a luxury auto manufacturer. The multiple is broadly in line with
that of niche OEM peers, which have solid business profiles but
continued negative FCF generation.
These assumptions result in a Recovery Rating for the senior
secured notes within the 'RR5' (previously 'RR4') range, with the
notes rated 'CCC', one notch below the IDR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Lack of operational turnover leading to further liquidity
deterioration due to continued negative FCF generation or lack of
shareholder support
- Balance sheet transactions detrimental to the going concern or
existing creditors
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Break-even FCF generation
- EBITDA leverage sustainably below 4.0x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
AML's liquidity weakened in 2Q26 due to negative FCF generation of
GBP81 million. Reported total liquidity declined to GBP145 million
at end-June 2026 from GBP178 million at end-March 2026. Fitch
expects negative FCF in 1H26 to account for most of the full-year
outflow, with only minimal cash outflow forecast in 2H26.
The drawdown of the GBP450 million term loan in July 2026 has
improved the company's liquidity position, to a pro-forma GBP340
million at end-June 2026. The company also has a GBP100 million
delayed-draw down loan available. As part of the latest loan
facilities, the GBP170 million RCF, which was fully drawn, has been
repaid and cancelled. Fitch expects future liquidity needs to be
met with off-market financing options.
The company's debt largely consists of USD1,050 million and GBP565
million senior secured notes maturing in March 2029, and the new
GBP450 million senior secured term loan maturing in July 2031.
Issuer Profile
AML is the ultimate Holdco of Aston Martin Investment Ltd and
subsidiaries Aston Martin Lagonda Group Ltd and Aston Martin
Capital Holdings Ltd, collectively known as Aston Martin. AML is a
world-renowned manufacturer of luxury, high-performance sports cars
and supercars.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The Climate.VS for 2035 for Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings
PLC is 52, in line with auto manufacturer peers. Most of the
company's revenue is from sales of petrol-powered vehicles. It
faces large transition risks from the industry's shift towards
electrification in response to increasingly stringent emissions
regulations aimed at phasing out internal combustion engine models
in major advanced economies. Ultra-low-volume carmakers, such as
AML, are exempt from many emissions-reduction regulations,
particularly in Europe, but they still face regulatory
requirements. Its rating case considers the impact of this shift on
the company's financial and operational metrics.
AML has not set an electrification target or timeline to end
production of internal combustion engine models, and it does not
offer a model powered by alternative fuels. The current plan over
2026-2030 is to extend the existing model-line coverage before
commencing the next full refresh, combining combustion-based
powertrains with electrical assistance, while reviewing the
implementation of an efficient strategy aligned to regulatory
requirements and customer demand. Over 2030-2035, the company plans
to incrementally add all-electric drivetrains alongside efficient
combustion powertrain vehicles.
The rating incorporates its assumption of investments in hybrid and
battery electric vehicles technologies, including production
facility reconfiguration, R&D in high-performance powertrains and
costs associated with external partnerships for selected
technological updates.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Aston Martin
Lagonda Global
Holdings PLC LT IDR CCC+ Affirmed CCC+
Aston Martin
Capital Holdings
Limited
senior secured LT CCC Downgrade RR5 CCC+
ASTON MARTIN: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative, Affirms 'CCC+' ICR
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Aston Martin Lagonda
Global Holdings PLC (AML) to negative from stable and affirmed its
'CCC+' long-term issuer credit rating. At the same time, S&P
lowered its issue rating on AML's senior secured notes to 'CCC'
from 'CCC+'. S&P revised the recovery rating on the debt to '5'
from '3'.
S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our expectations that
although AML will maintain an adequate liquidity position for the
next 12 months, market conditions will remain challenging and FOCF
generation negative (despite improving). Our base case assumes AML
will be able to draw down from the GBP100 million delayed draw
facility, if required, and can access cash through equity
injections if needed."
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (AML) recently issued a
new GBP550 million loan facility, bolstering liquidity but
materially increasing the company's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
debt and cash interest burden.
S&P said, "Based on the limited information provided by AML to the
public about the new facility, we consider that this new debt ranks
ahead of the existing senior secured notes. As such, we have
revised downward our rounded recovery estimate for the existing
senior secured debt to 25% (from 50% previously).
"Ongoing efforts to streamline the company's cost base, coupled
with rising Valhalla deliveries, will reduce AML's cash burn in
2026 and beyond versus 2025, but we still expect the company to
post about GBP200 million of negative free operating cash flow
(FOCF) in 2026 and that FOCF will remain negative in 2027, meaning
debt reduction prospects are limited and liquidity could weaken if
AML underperforms."
AML has issued a new GBP550 million loan facility, strengthening
liquidity but materially increasing its S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
debt and cash interest burden. This has diluted recovery prospects
for holders of the existing senior secured notes due 2029. The new
loan facility comprises a GBP450 million loan that AML has drawn
down fully, and a GBP100 million delayed draw (not yet drawn) that
is subject to conditions precedent (albeit S&P has no view on
these, as AML has not shared the facility documentation with it).
According to public statements from AML:
The new GBP550 million loan facility is priced at 6.75% over the
prevailing Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) rate and
matures in July 2031.
This facility has collateral over some of AML's assets that are
situated in a newly incorporated subsidiary and collateral over
some of the rest of the group's assets.
The senior secured notes continue to be secured by a pledge over
the shares in Aston Martin Lagonda Ltd., which is an indirect
parent entity of the new subsidiary. The senior secured notes are
not secured by a pledge over the shares of such new subsidiary.
In connection with the new financing, a different newly
incorporated group subsidiary has been designated as an
unrestricted subsidiary under the indenture governing the notes.
There is an additional GBP100 million permitted debt incurrence
capacity, junior to the GBP550 million facility
As such, S&P considers the newly raised debt as priority in the
recovery waterfall at the point of hypothetical default for the
company.
AML used the GBP450 million proceeds to fully repay its (fully
utilized) GBP170 million RCF facility and GBP20 million of drawings
under the GBP50 million facility previously provided by the Yew
Tree Consortium (YTC). S&P said, "We note that both the RCF and YTC
facility have been cancelled and AML no longer has access to an
RCF. Following these repayments and, as of Aug. 1, 2026, AML had
about GBP340 million of cash on balance sheet. We note that AML's
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt was about GBP1.625 billion as of
Dec 31, 2025, and we expect this figure to rise to more than GBP2
billion by Dec 31, 2026 (we do not net any cash). At the same time,
cash interest costs will rise by about GBP30 million per year.
Based on the limited information provided by AML, we assume that
the new GBP550 million facility ranks ahead of the existing senior
secured notes. This results in dilution of recovery prospects for
the holders of the senior secured notes. The cancellation of the
GBP170 million RCF means that AML no longer needs to comply with
the covenants under that facility, but we understand that the
GBP550 million loan facility could have one or more covenants. We
have no information on what these covenants are, nor when or how
they are tested."
An increase in wholesale volumes in the first half (H1) of 2026
versus H1 2025, rising Valhalla deliveries, and ongoing efforts to
streamline its cost base supported AML's recent reiteration of its
full-year 2026 guidance. When AML recently reported its H1 2026
results, it confirmed that H1 2026 wholesales increased 21% and
revenue was up 38% on H1 2025, reflecting higher specials
deliveries (including Valhalla). At the same time, the company
affirmed its 2026 target of delivering broadly the same volumes of
its core range as in 2025. In S&P's base case, it assumes 5,250 SUV
and sport/ GT deliveries and 500 Valhalla deliveries for full-year
2026, with revenue rising to more than GBP1.5 billion.
Meeting expected Valhalla delivery targets in 2026 and 2027 will be
key to improving profits and cash flows. Valhalla's high retail
price range--starting from about GBP850,000 before options--and its
above-average group gross margin contribution, should support the
company's profits and cash flows more consistently throughout the
next 12 months, with a more even profile of expected quarterly
deliveries. To calculate AML's EBITDA, S&P adjusts for capitalized
research and development (R&D), which it assumes will be about
GBP250 million per year in 2026 and 2027.
AML's liquidity profile remains adequate, despite large free cash
outflows. As of Aug. 1, 2026, the company's cash balances amounted
to about GBP340 million. S&P said, "We expect AML will cover its
cash needs over the next 12 months, including capital expenditure
(capex) of about GBP300 million. Despite our assumption that S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA will turn positive, with lower capex
and tight control over working capital, we still expect AML to
generate about negative GBP200 million of FOCF in 2026. Management
has guided that the majority of this negative FOCF will be
attributed to first half 2026, and assumes FOCF in second-half 2026
will be broadly stable. If AML delivers on its targets, this would
be a material improvement versus the approximately GBP400 million
of negative FOCF in 2025. FOCF will improve through 2027 but remain
negative. As such, we assume that AML will fully draw down the
GBP100 million delayed draw facility in H1 2027."
S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of
unpredictability around the duration and scale of the Middle East
war, and its potential effect on commodity prices, supply chains,
economies, and credit conditions. As a result, our baseline
forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations
evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential
shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly. S&P said, "We note
that some input costs have risen, such as energy, and that freight
costs have also increased. However, the situation remains volatile,
and any larger outbreak of conflict or further tensions could again
change our assumptions. We will continue to monitor how the
situation develops and whether there are any direct or indirect
implications on AML. The company has production facilities only in
the UK only and exports its vehicles to service many of its core
end markets."
S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our expectation that
although AML will maintain an adequate liquidity position for the
next 12 months, market conditions remain challenging and FOCF
generation will stay negative. Our base case assumes the ability to
draw down the GBP100 million delayed draw facility, if required,
and access to cash through equity injections if needed.
"We could lower our rating on AML if its liquidity deteriorates.
This could occur if the company faces internal operating setbacks,
delaying the targeted 500 deliveries of its Valhalla models during
2026, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn, not offset by
additional support from shareholders.
"We could raise our rating on AML if it successfully ramps up its
production, supported by sound demand for its model lineup, leading
to its funds from operations (FFO) cash interest coverage
increasing to sustainably above 1.5x, and, its FOCF swinging to
positive; while maintaining adequate liquidity."
BITMORE LIMITED: RG Insolvency Appointed as Joint Administrators
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bitmore Limited was placed into administration in the High Court of
Justice, Business and Property Courts in Birmingham, Insolvency and
Companies List (ChD), Court Number CR-2026-BHM-00353. Avner
Radomsky and Charlotte Jobling of RG Insolvency were appointed as
Joint Administrators on July 24, 2026.
The company specialized in import and wholesale distribution.
Its registered office is at Handel House, 95 High Street, Edgware,
HA8 7DB.
Its principal trading address is 1st Floor, Building 2, Croxley
Business Park, Watford, WD19 8AY.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Avner Radomsky
Charlotte Jobling
RG Insolvency
Devonshire House
Manor Way
Borehamwood
Hertfordshire
WD6 1QQ
Tel: 020 3603 7871
Email: info@rginsolvency.com
Alternative contact: Rob Sage
CITY STRONGMAN: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
--------------------------------------------------------------
City Strongman Ltd, trading as Foundry, was placed into
administration in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency and Companies List (ChD),
Court Number CR-2026-005928. Lee Manning and Robert Russell of S&W
Partners LLP were appointed as Joint Administrators on July 29,
2026.
The company specialized in physical well-being activities.
Its registered office is at Wey Court West, Union Road, Farnham,
Surrey, GU9 7PT.
Its principal trading addresses are Black Prince Community Hub, 5
Beaufoy Walk, off Black Prince Road, Kennington, London, SE11 6AA,
and Lower Ground Floor, Basildon House, 7-11 Moorgate, London,
EC2.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Lee Manning
Robert Russell
S&W Partners LLP
c/o RRS Department
45 Gresham Street
London
EC2V 7BG
Tel: 020 4617 5500
Alternative contact: Emily Kerin
TMBFITNESS LIMITED: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
------------------------------------------------------------------
TMBFitness Limited, trading as Foundry, was placed into
administration in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number CR-2026-005936. Lee Manning and Robert Russell of S&W
Partners LLP were appointed as Joint Administrators on July 26,
2026.
The company specialized in fitness facilities.
Its registered office is at Wey Court West, Union Road, Farnham,
Surrey, GU9 7PT.
Its principal trading address is Unit 1, Hole Farm, Lye Green,
Crowborough, East Sussex, TN6 1UU.
The Joint Administrators can be contacted at:
Lee Manning
Robert Russell
S&W Partners LLP
c/o RRS Department
45 Gresham Street
London
EC2V 7BG
Tel: 020 4617 5500
Alternative contact: Emily Kerin
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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Editors.
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