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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Thursday, March 19, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 57

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

IRSA INVERSIONES: S&P Cuts ICR to 'CCC+', Puts on Rating Watch Neg.


B E R M U D A

BORR DRILLING: Needs More Financing to Remain as Going Concern


B R A Z I L

AZUL SA: S&P Places B+ Rating on Watch Negative on COVID-19 Impact
GOL LINHAS: Cancels All International Flights Over Coronavirus
GOL LINHAS: S&P Places 'B' ICR on Watch Neg. on COVID-19 Turmoil
SEABRAS 1 USA: Taps FTI Consulting as Financial Advisor


C H I L E

LATAM AIRLINES: S&P Places 'BB-' ICR on CreditWatch Negative


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Business Sector Seeks to Ease Virus Impact


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: CAC Advises Against Panic Buying


M E X I C O

ALPHA GUARDIAN: Hires Mr. Rubin of Force Ten as CRO


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

CARIBBEAN AIRLINES: Still Operating Flights


X X X X X X X X

[*] Economist Warns Covid-19 Could Cause Caribbean Tourism Crisis

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
=================

IRSA INVERSIONES: S&P Cuts ICR to 'CCC+', Puts on Rating Watch Neg.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
On March 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit and
issue-level ratings on Argentina-based real estate company IRSA
Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (IRSA) and subsidiary, IRSA
Propiedades Comerciales S.A.'s (IRCP) to 'CCC+' from 'B-' and
placed the ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications.

IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A.'s (IRSA) cash position as
of December 2019 was $165 million, a reduction of 35% compared with
June 2019, while debt remained at around $900 million. From July
until November this year, the company faces bond maturities for
$375 million (excluding bond repurchases). S&P said, "For the
following 12 months, we expect cash sources will not cover expected
cash uses and the company will depend on market access or the sale
of assets (such as offices or IRCP stocks) to refinance debt. We
believe refinancing risk has increased and the company could offer
a bond exchange, which we could consider distressed under our
rating methodology. Moreover, refinancing risk has been increasing
at the Israel operating unit, with IDB facing serious difficulty
paying its March commitments." Back in 2019, IRSA committed to
transfer around $60 million to IDB in three equal instalments, $20
million of which were wired in September 2019, and the remaining
are planned for transfer in September 2020 and 2021 (unless IDB
bondholders request an event of default prior that date).

The Argentina devaluation hurts the company's capital structure.
Although the office and hotel segments generate U.S.-dollar
denominated revenues, the company derives around 70% of EBITDA from
the argentine peso-denominated shopping mall segment. Above 90% of
debt is in dollar terms. On top of the currency mismatch, interest
rates have been increasing due to sovereign risk and the current
debt restructuring process. The macroeconomic situation is fragile
in the country; it is currently in recession and with sluggish
consumption trends. Moreover, due to COVID-19, market access is
limited and business performance will weaken materially because of
less traffic in shopping malls and lower occupancy rates at
hotels.

The CreditWatch negative placement reflects the company's weaker
liquidity and dependence on market access or sale of assets to
refinance debt during the volatile scenario both locally in
Argentina as well as abroad. The CreditWatch also reflects
uncertainty about the extent of the negative impact of COVID-19 on
hotels and shopping malls. Moreover, Israeli operations are also
facing liquidity issues, especially IDB. S&P believes there is a
50% chance of a downgrade in the next three months.

S&P said, "We could lower the ratings on IRSA and IRCP over the
next three months if cash flow generation and liquidity further
weakens, which could be the result of a reduction in shopping
traffic due to COVID-19. We could also lower the ratings if the
debt maturity profile shortens even more on increasing refinancing
risk. Additionally, we could lower the ratings if IDB enters into
financial distress and IRSA decides to support this company further
financially, transferring funds abroad and jeopardizing its own
creditworthiness. We could also lower the ratings if IRSA's
debt-to-debt plus equity ratio is consistently above 50% or if
EBITDA interest coverage is consistently below 1.3x."

S&P is unlikely to remove the CreditWatch until liquidity improves
and liability management proves successful.

IRSA is a real estate company that acquires, develops, and operates
shopping centers, luxury hotels, and office buildings for rental
purposes. IRSA controls 81.3% of IRCP, the leading operator of
premium shopping centers in Argentina.

IRSA also has an operation in Israel, where it holds a majority
stake in IDB and Discount Investments Corp. (DIC), large
diversified conglomerates engaged in numerous markets and industry
sectors in Israel, including real estate (Property & Building
Corp.), supermarkets (Shufersal), insurance (Clal Holdings
Insurance Enterprises; Clal), and telecommunications (Cellcom).




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B E R M U D A
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BORR DRILLING: Needs More Financing to Remain as Going Concern
--------------------------------------------------------------
Borr Drilling Limited filed its Form 6-K, disclosing a net loss of
$69 million on $93 million of total operating revenues for the
three months ended Dec. 31, 2019, compared to a net loss of $111
million on $54 million of total operating revenues for the same
period in 2018.

At Dec. 31, 2019, the Company had total assets of $3,280 million,
total liabilities of $1,995 million, and $1,285 million in total
equity.

Chief Executive Officer Svend Anton Maier said, "We are dependent
on additional financing in order to execute on our current capital
expenditure program.  This raises substantial doubt about our
ability to continue as a going concern.  We have, as of December
31, 2019, amended our covenants on liquidity and equity ratios, and
on February 17, 2020 have received US$100m in exit financing from a
yard and delayed two rig deliveries from 2020 to 2022.  While we
have confidence that these actions now enable us to better manage
our liquidity position, and we have a track record of delivering
additional financing, there is no guarantee that any additional
measures will be concluded successfully."

A copy of the Form 6-K is available at:

                       https://is.gd/M60cQi

Borr Drilling Limited operates as an offshore drilling contractor
to the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company operates a fleet
of 27 jack-up drilling rigs. It provides drilling services to the
oil and gas exploration and production companies, including
integrated oil companies, state-owned national oil companies, and
independent oil and gas companies. The company was formerly known
as Magni Drilling Limited. Borr Drilling Limited was founded in
2016 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.




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B R A Z I L
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AZUL SA: S&P Places B+ Rating on Watch Negative on COVID-19 Impact
------------------------------------------------------------------
On March 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings placed its 'B+' global and
'brAA' national scale ratings on Azul S.A. on CreditWatch with
negative implications, including the issuer credit and debt
ratings.

The current turmoil stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak will pose
significant challenges to Azul's operations, which triggered
management's announcement of a capacity haircut of about 50% over
at least the next two months. While March and April figures might
look very weak in terms of EBITDA generation--which along with the
foreign exchange (FX) depreciation will likely push gross debt to
EBITDA above 5.0x and funds from operations (FFO) to debt well
below 12%--the extent of the severe operation reduction will be key
for the impact to 2020 and 2021 figures.

S&P said, "We expect to resolve the CreditWatch negative once we
have a clearer view of the impact that COVID-19 will have on Azul's
credit metrics and liquidity position. The depth of the damage to
flight demand in Brazil and the extension of such a scenario beyond
the second quarter of this year is very uncertain at this point. We
will further assess the effectiveness of Azul's strategy to
preserve margins and cash flow, and how it would sustain its
liquidity position in this scenario."


GOL LINHAS: Cancels All International Flights Over Coronavirus
--------------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A
disclosed that it is suspending all its flights abroad as of March
23.

A press release said that the measure, scheduled to be in force
until June 30th, aims to "ensure the safety of customers and
employees" and "to adjust operations to the new demand scenario for
air transport", according Rio Times Online.

                         About GOL Linhas

GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A also known as VRG Linhas Aereas
S/A) is a Brazilian low-cost airline based in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
July 11, 2019, Fitch Ratings has upgraded GOL Linhas Aereas
Inteligentes S.A.'s Long-Term, Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer
Default Ratings to 'B+' from 'B' and its National rating to
'A-(bra)' from 'BBB-(bra)'. Fitch has also upgraded GOL Finance
S.A.'s unsecured bonds ratings to 'B+/RR4' from 'B'/'RR4'. The
upgrades reflect improvements in GOL's credit risk profile due to
lower leverage, improved costs and more favorable industry dynamics
in Brazil.

GOL LINHAS: S&P Places 'B' ICR on Watch Neg. on COVID-19 Turmoil
----------------------------------------------------------------
On March 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings placed its 'B' global scale
and 'brA' national scale issuer credit and debt ratings on
Brazilian airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (Gol) on
CreditWatch with negative implications.

The CreditWatch negative reflects the risks that the impact of
COVID-19 could extend longer than two to three months, potentially
cutting profitability and consuming Gol's current liquidity
position. In addition, foreign exchange (FX) swings could
significantly hamper the cost structure, but this is somewhat
offset by lower fuel prices.

Gol's management recently announced a massive capacity haircut of
about 60%-70% until June 2020, as a response to the severe impact
that the coronavirus outbreak is having on the Brazilian domestic
market and international flights. More specifically, it cut 90%-95%
of its international flights and 50%-60% of domestic flights. This
reduction, along with the Brazilian real depreciation, could
severely hit Gol's credit metrics and liquidity position.

S&P said, "We expect to resolve the CreditWatch once we have a
clearer view of the impact that COVID-19 and FX swings will have on
Gol's liquidity position and financial metrics. We could lower the
ratings likely by one notch in the next few months if we observe a
significant drop of the liquidity cushion because of much weaker
cash flow generation or large unexpected cash disbursements due to
as flight reimbursements or canceled tickets."

The depth of the damage to flight demand in Brazil and the
extension of this scenario beyond the second quarter of this year
is very uncertain at this point, and we will continue to monitor
how it affects Gol.


SEABRAS 1 USA: Taps FTI Consulting as Financial Advisor
-------------------------------------------------------
Seabras 1 USA, LLC and its affiliates received approval from the
U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York to
employ FTI Consulting, Inc. as their financial advisor.

The firm will provide these services in connection with the
Debtors' Chapter 11 cases:  

     a. prepare, update and provide variance reporting of a 13-week
cash flow forecast in support of the Debtors' continued access to
cash collateral;

     b. assist in the development of liquidity projections for
lenders if necessary;

     c. assist in the analysis and preparation of bankruptcy
filings, including the Debtors' bankruptcy plan and disclosure
statement if necessary;

     d. respond to creditor groups and vendors if necessary; and

     e. assist in claim reconciliation and objections if
necessary.


FTI Consulting will be paid at these hourly rates:

     Senior Managing Directors                       $920 to
$1,295
     Directors/Senior Directors/Managing Directors   $690 to $905
     Consultants/Senior Consultants                  $370 to $660
     Administrative/Paraprofessionals                $150 to $280

Jiva Jagtap, senior managing director of FTI, disclosed in court
filings that the firm is a "disinterested person" as the term is
defined in Section 101(14) of the Bankruptcy Code.

FTI can be reached at:

     Jiva J. Jagtap
     FTI Consulting, Inc.
     999 17th Street, Suite 700
     Denver, CO, 80202
     Tel: +1 303 689 8800
     Fax: +1 303 689 8803

                        About Seabras 1 USA

Seabras 1 Bermuda LLC and its wholly-owned subsidiary Seabras 1 USA
LLC own a fiber optic cable system between New York USA and Sao
Paulo, Brazil known as Seabras-1. Seabras-1 itself is fully
operated by Seaborn Networks, a developer-owner-operator of
submarine fiber optic cable systems.

Seabras 1 Bermuda and Seabras 1 USA filed Chapter 11 petitions
(Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Lead Case No. 19-14006) on Dec. 22, 2019. In the
petitions signed by CEO Larry W. Schwartz, the Debtors were
estimated to have $50 million to $100 million in assets and $100
million to $500 million in liabilities.

The Debtors tapped Bracewell LLP as bankruptcy counsel; Barbosa
Mussnich Aragao as local counsel; and Stretto as claims agent.



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C H I L E
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LATAM AIRLINES: S&P Places 'BB-' ICR on CreditWatch Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
On March 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on
Chile-based airline Latam Airlines Group S.A. (Latam) on
CreditWatch with negative implications, including the 'BB-' issuer
credit rating, the 'B+' unsecured debt rating, the 'BBB+' rating on
EETC-2015 1 Class A notes, the 'BB+' rating on Class B notes, and
the 'BB' rating on Class C notes.

On March 16, Latam announced that it has reduced its capacity by
70%, more specifically 90% of its international flights and 40% of
domestic routes. At this point, it's not clear how long capacity
will remain reduced--this will depend not only on the spread of the
coronavirus but also on the measures regional governments take to
contain it. Latam is taking specific cost-savings initiatives like
cutting down executive salaries, postponing all non-essential
capex, and giving incentives for unpaid leave. The company could
also benefit from lower crude oil prices, which are currently $35
to $40 per barrel, but only partially because 60%-70% of its fuel
needs for the year are already hedged. However, S&P believes this
will not be enough to offset the traffic drop and the impact to its
credit metrics and liquidity.

S&P said, "We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement once we
have more visibility about the impact that the coronavirus will
have on Latam's credit metrics and liquidity position. It may vary
depending on how much demand falls, the effect of countercyclical
measures, and the timing of a market rebound. We could lower the
ratings by one or more notches in the next few weeks if we observe
any material deficit in the airline's liquidity position or if we
expect persistent weak credit metrics beyond fourth quarter
figures, with debt to EBITDA above 5x and funds from operations to
debt below 12%."




===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Business Sector Seeks to Ease Virus Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the Santiago business sector proposed
to president Danilo Medina a series of measures aimed at mitigating
the economic impact from the coronavirus.

The request is in a document signed by Fernando Capellan, APEDI
president; Juan B. Ventura, president AIREM; Miguel Lama, president
of the Santiago Free Zone Corporation; Sandy Filpo, ACIS President;
Juan Carlos Hernandez, president of the Santiago Chamber of
Commerce and Luis Jose Bonilla, president of AEZFS, according to
Dominican Today.

"The health of the population is a priority and that it is also
important to preserve the health of the national productive
apparatus, ensuring that when the crisis passes it will be in
conditions to continue generating the jobs and wealth essential to
sustain the growth and development of the nation," the business
leaders warn, the report notes.

                    About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Standard & Poor's credit rating for Dominican Republic stands at
BB- with stable outlook (2015). Moody's credit rating for Dominican
Republic was last set at Ba3 with stable outlook (2017). Fitch's
credit rating for Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with
stable outlook (2016).



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J A M A I C A
=============

JAMAICA: CAC Advises Against Panic Buying
-----------------------------------------
RJR News reports that the Consumer Affairs Commission (CAC) is
again encouraging consumers to avoid panic buying while taking the
necessary precautions to protect themselves against contracting the
novel coronavirus.

At a meeting with government representatives, manufacturers and
distributors of anti-viral and disinfectant products gave the
assurance that there are adequate products in stock to supply the
market between two to three months, according to RJR News.

In addition, they have increased production to meet the current
demand, the report notes.

The CAC said in light of this, retailers are advised to stop the
excessive pricing of cleaning products, the report says.

Consumers are being asked to send their receipts to the Commission
in the instances where they have experienced significant increases
in the price of cleaning commodities, the report adds.

                         About Jamaica

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America, S&P
Global Ratings in September 2019 raised its long-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'B+' from
'B'. The outlook is stable. At the same time, S&P Global Ratings
affirmed its 'B' short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on the country. S&P Global
Ratings also raised its transfer and convertibility assessment to
'BB-' from 'B+'.

RJR News reported in June 2019 that Steven Gooden, Chief Executive
Officer of NCB Capital Markets, warned that the increasing
liquidity in the Jamaican economy might result in heightened risk
to the financial market if left unchecked.  This, he said, is
against the background of the local administration seeking to
reduce the debt to GDP to 60% by the end of the 2025/26 fiscal
year, which will see Government repaying more than J$600 billion
which will get back into the system, according to RJR News.



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M E X I C O
===========

ALPHA GUARDIAN: Hires Mr. Rubin of Force Ten as CRO
---------------------------------------------------
Alpha Guardian, a Nevada Corporation, and its debtor-affiliates,
seeks authority from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of
Nevada to employ Mr. Nicholas D. Rubin of Force Ten Partners, LLC,
as chief restructuring officer to the Debtors.

Alpha Guardian requires Force Ten to:

   a. manage the affairs of the Debtors, supervise the Debtors'
      employees, management and professionals and provide
      periodic reports to the Special Committee;

   b. assist legal counsel and the Debtors executing the Chapter
      11 Cases;

   c. assist the employees of the Debtors by providing
      support services;

   d. seek debtor-in-possession financing for the Debtors;

   e. seek exit financing for the Debtors;

   f. seek to maximize the value of the Debtors' assets through
      the sale of real property;

   g. seek to refinance the Debtors' existing indebtedness;

   h. seek to maximize the value of the Debtors' assets and
      operations through restructuring the operations of the
      Debtors' businesses;

   i. seek to maximize the value of the Debtors' assets and
      operations through, among other things, the potential:
      sale, recapitalization, restructuring or reorganizing of
      the Debtors' business, in whole or in part;

   j. provide assistance in connection with motions, responses or
      other court activity as directed by legal counsel;

   k. provide Monthly Operating Reports required by a bankruptcy
      court;

   l. provide periodic reporting to stakeholders;

   m. evaluate and develop restructuring plans and other
      strategic alternatives for maximizing the value of the
      Debtors' assets;

   n. assist in the formulation and preparation of the Debtors'
      disclosure statement and plan of reorganization, if
      applicable, including the creation of financial projections
      and supporting methodology, key assumptions and rationale,
      appropriate financial analysis and evaluation of the
      Debtors' operations, and supporting financial statements
      and pro forma budgets and projections;

   o. assist in negotiations with the Debtors' creditors and
      responding to any objections to the bankruptcy plan by
      parties in interest; and

   p. prepare and offer declarations, reports, depositions and
      in-court testimony.

Force Ten will be paid at these hourly rates:

     Partners                $650 to $750
     Directors               $350 to $595
     Analysts                $225 to $350
     Staff                   $100 to $225

Prior to the Petition Date, Debtors had paid Force Ten
$237,057.70.

As of the Petition Date, Force Ten is holding $2,942.30 on
retainer.

Force Ten will also be reimbursed for reasonable out-of-pocket
expenses incurred.

Nicholas D. Rubin, partner of Force Ten Partners, assured the Court
that the firm is a "disinterested person" as the term is defined in
Section 101(14) of the Bankruptcy Code and does not represent any
interest adverse to the Debtors and their estates.

Force Ten can be reached at:

     Nicholas D. Rubin
     FORCE TEN PARTNERS
     20341 SW Birch, Suite 220
     Newport Beach, CA 92660
     Tel: (949) 357-2360

                     About Alpha Guardian

Established in July 2017, Alpha Guardian --
https://www.alphaguardian.com provides consumers with secure
storage solutions. Its products are sold to major retailers across
the United States under the Cannon Safe, Stack-On and GunVault
brands, all of which are designed to fill unique consumer needs.
The company operates manufacturing and distribution facilities in
the U.S. and Mexico and has employees in multiple countries.

Cannon Safe -- https://www.cannonsafe.com -- is a manufacturer of
large-scale gun safes and secure home storage solutions. Since
1965, its focus has been on manufacturing safes to protect prized
possessions.

GunVault -- https://www.gunvault.com -- offers a wide range of gun
safes including biometric safes, pistol safes, and portable safes.

Stack-On -- https://www.stack-on.com -- manufactures and
distributes gun security products.

Alpha Guardian, a Nevada corporation, based in Henderson, NV, filed
a Chapter 11 petition (Bankr. D. Nev. Lead Case No. 20-11016) on
Feb. 24, 2020.  In the petition was signed by CRO Nicholas D.
Rubin, the Debtor was estimated to have $10 million to $50 million
in assets and $100 million to $500 million in liabilities.

The Hon. Bruce T. Beesley presides over the case.

The Debtor tapped GARMAN TURNER GORDON LLP, as bankruptcy counsel;
STRETTO, as claims noticing and solicitation agent; and FORCE TEN
PARTNERS, LLC, as CRO.



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T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
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CARIBBEAN AIRLINES: Still Operating Flights
-------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Caribbean Airlines Limited said it is still
operating flights.

Travel restrictions have been placed on some of the destinations to
which it operates, according to RJR News.

Caribbean Airlines said based on this, some of its international
and regional services may be consolidated or altered, the report
notes.

Caribbean Airlines Limited - http://www.caribbean-airlines.com/-
provides passenger airline services in the Caribbean, South
America, and North America.  The company also offers freighter
services for perishables, fish and seafood, live animals, human
remains, and dangerous goods.  In addition, it operates a duty
free store in Trinidad.  Caribbean Airlines Limited was founded in
2006 and is based in Piarco, Trinidad and Tobago.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
November 2, 2015, RJR News said that Michael DiLollo, Chief
Executive Officer of Caribbean Airlines Limited, quit after just
17 months on the job. The 48-year-old Canadian national, citing
personal reasons, resigned with immediate effect.  His resignation
was accepted by the airline's board of directors. Mr. DiLollo was
appointed Caribbean Airlines CEO in May 2014, following the sudden
resignation of Robert Corbie in September 2013.

In early February 2015, Larry Howai, then Finance Minister, told
Parliament that unaudited accounts for 2014 showed the airline
made a loss of US$60 million, inclusive of its Air Jamaica
operations, and the airline planned to break even by 2017. Mr.
Howai told the Parliament that a five-year strategic plan had been
completed and was in the process of being approved for
implementation.

In an interview with the Trinidad & Tobago Guardian in early
November 2015, Mr. DiLollo said CAL did not need a bailout just
yet. Mr. DiLollo said the airline had benefited from extremely
patient shareholders for years and he believed the airline was
strategically positioned to break even in three years.



===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

[*] Economist Warns Covid-19 Could Cause Caribbean Tourism Crisis
------------------------------------------------------------------
Caribbean360.com reports that with many Caribbean economies still
performing below par, there are mounting fears among officials
about the devastating impact the dreaded Coronavirus (COVID-19)
could have on the region's bread and butter tourism industry and
related sectors.

This warning was sounded as the University of the West Indies (UWI)
hosted a Vice-Chancellor's Forum - COVID 19: Partnering in the
Caribbean's Response, according to Caribbean360.com.

While panellists pointed out that governments and the university
were working closely with national and regional institutions to
minimize the threat to the region, they agreed that should the
virus, which originated in China, reach our shores, it could have
devastating consequences, the report notes.

Director of Economics at the Barbados-based Caribbean Development
Bank (CDB) Dr. Justin Ram warned that Barbados and other regional
states were in no position to deal with a health crisis since they
were already in a "tough place" economically, coupled with other
developmental challenges including unemployment and a decline in
population growth, the report relays.

"On top of this we are likely to be dealing with a major crisis if
it is not contained quickly," warned Ram, the report says.

He told the gathering that after a simulation by the IDB to
determine the impact of the virus on at least one economy, it was
determined that it could have a far-reaching impact, putting a dent
in the tourism industry, negatively affecting wholesale, retail and
transportation, fracturing supply chains and reducing productivity,
the report discloses.

"If we have a hit on tourism, it is not only the tourism industry
that is likely to be impacted. There are also these indirect
impacts. So for example, in some of our countries the agriculture
sector provides significant inputs to tourism, and if tourism is
impacted there is a reduced demand and there will be a knock-on
reduced demand for agricultural products and knock-on reduced
demand for taxi drivers," he explained, the report notes.

The CDB economist warned there was likely to be a decrease in
well-being, an impact on jobs and lower tax yields due to the
knock-on effects in a reduction in tourism, the report says.

The report notes that the tourism industry alone directly employs
some 2.4 million people, contributing just over US$60 billion or
15.5 per cent to the region's gross domestic product.

Ram said with the region importing "quite a lot" from other regions
including the US, if COVID 19 was to have a greater impact in the
United States our supply chains are likely to be impacted, the
report relates.

"Think about what could happen if we can't import our food from the
United States. Do we have the contingencies in place to allow us to
get our food from other source markets and how quickly can those
contingencies be put in place?" he said, the report notes.

He also warned that a health crisis in the Caribbean could lead to
lower primary balances for governments, higher public debt and low
economic growth, the report discloses.

The economist cautioned that putting monetary policies in place
would have very little impact and suggested that governments come
up with a fiscal response instead, the report relates.

"There needs to be a fiscal response when it comes to dealing with
this particular crisis," said Ram, the report notes.

"I think the policy response needs to be on the demand side. We
have to think about how we support the economy at this time . . .
we have to think about how we support labor markets and how we
support the private sector. Governments should sufficiently think
about resourcing our hospitals and primary care facilities at this
point with the right amount of labor and financial resources," Ram
said, the report relays.

He also suggested that governments start thinking about providing
health insurance to help the less fortunate pay for medical bills
associated with the virus, the report discloses.

"Governments should also be encouraged to support and encourage
sick paid leave because if you have guaranteed sick paid leave it
is going to be easy for you to self-quarantine, and that is going
to be critical at this point. It can be an instant stabilizer in
the economy because we don't want a situation where we are saying
stay at home and you don't have an income," he said, the report
notes.

Ram said private sector firms were likely to suffer liquidity
crunches because of falling demand, and therefore governments
should be thinking about offering "temporary tax and wage relief as
automatic stabilizers," the report relates.

"Financial intermediaries might need to become part of the act in
the fiscal response, because we need to ask for forbearance to
borrowers at this point if things become critical, because it
doesn't make sense for a financial intermediary to be hounding down
a lender when they can't pay. You have to think about the
long-term," Ram added.

The report notes that he also pointed to the need for digitization,
adding that this would become critical in the need for medical
check-ups.  Ram said digital technology would also be critical to
help people to continue to carry out transactions, the report
discloses.

Officials have predicted that global tourism could witness a
reduction of between one per cent and three per cent as a result of
the COVID-19 disease and the industry could lose between US$30
million and US$50 million as a result, the report says.

Meantime, Dr. Michelle McLeod, Head of the UWI Centre for Hotel and
Tourism Management in the Bahamas, said she was confident adequate
steps were being taken in the region to deal with the threat of the
virus, the report notes.

However, she agreed there could be some devastating impact on the
tourism industry, the report relates.

"In terms of the impact on employment in particular, if you are
looking at the cruise ship industry we have a number of small micro
and small enterprises -- store vendors, taxi operators and
attractions that are all part of that cruise industry -- we have to
be particularly concerned as to what measures can be put in place.
The impact on employment of these very important operators would
not be as great," said McLeod, the report adds.


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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

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