/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/240202.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Friday, February 2, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 25
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Milei Shelves Austerity Plan as Congress Debates Bill
ARGENTINA: Milei's Plan to Free Oil Market Slows in Congress
B R A Z I L
ACHE LABORATORIOS: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Foreign Currency IDR
AMERICANAS SA: Probe Circles Around Ex-CEO Now Living in Spain
BANCO SICREDI: Moody's Affirms Ba2 CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
BANRISUL: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' Deposit Ratings
BRAZIL: Auto Industry Sees Major Boost
GOL LINHAS: Moody's Downgrades CFR to 'Ca' on Chapter 11 Filing
ICBC DO BRASIL: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
C H I L E
BANCO DE CREDITO: Moody's Rates New AT1 Preferred Stock 'Ba1(hyb)'
BANCO DE CREDITO: S&P Assigns 'BB+' Rating on New Perpetual Notes
C O L O M B I A
COLOMBIA: Economy Beats Expectations, Calming Recession Fears
C O S T A R I C A
REVENTAZON FINANCE: Fitch Affirms BB Rating on USD135MM Notes
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Banreservas Disburse RD$10.4BB to Hotel Sector
G U A T E M A L A
CT TRUST: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: EU Looks to Bring More Investments
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
HERITAGE PETROLEUM: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba3 CFR to Positive
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Milei Shelves Austerity Plan as Congress Debates Bill
----------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that Argentine President Javier Milei
ditched the main austerity measures in his sweeping reform bill in
order to get it through Congress, implying deeper spending cuts in
the future, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said.
"We will give ourselves a little more time to figure out what we
can do better for Argentines on the fiscal side without ever giving
up on the concept of reaching our goal of zero deficit," Caputo
said at a press conference from the Casa Rosada presidential
palace, according to Buenos Aires Times.
The bill's fiscal chapter, which Caputo said would be removed
entirely, included tax hikes on major exports such as soy
derivatives, grains and corn, the report notes. The government is
also leaving out a planned reformulation of pensions, and an income
tax increase, the report relays.
The tax and pension measures had represented the biggest obstacles
to the bill's passage, the report discloses.
Milei's bill, which also seeks to privatise dozens of companies and
expand his executive powers on economic matters, narrowly passed
three congressional committees, the report notes. It was backed by
55 lawmakers, with 34 of them expressing partial disagreement,
according to a statement from Congress. That left open the
possibility of their voting against the bill had its most
controversial proposals remained unchanged, the report relays.
Tens of thousands of Argentines protested in Buenos Aires against
Milei's austerity measures, in demonstrations organized by the
country's powerful labour unions, the report discloses.
With the tax chapter out of the way, Caputo said the bill would
make it past the finish line in Congress, the report says. The
executive branch had reached a "clear consensus" on the most
important parts of the bill outside of the fiscal chapter, Caputo
said, which includes the privatization of dozens of companies -
excluding oil company YPF SA, the report notes.
The more than 500 articles that remain represent a "structural
change" in Argentina that will allow the economy to grow, Caputo
said, the report says.
Argentina's lower house Chamber of Deputies is expected to vote on
the bill, the report discloses.
Caputo also confirmed to reporters that he would take over the
responsibilities of Guillermo Ferraro, who was fired as
Infrastructure Minister, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.
S&P Global Ratings, on June 13, 2023, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC-/C' from 'SD/SD' and
0its national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'SD'. S&P also affirmed
its 'CCC-/C' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's
'CCC-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. None of
its rated bond issues are affected.
S&P said the negative outlook on the long-term ratings is based on
the risks surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties before and after the 2023 national elections.
Divisions within the government coalition, and infighting among the
opposition, constrain the sovereign's ability to implement timely
changes in economic policy.
Fitch Ratings also upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.
The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
ARGENTINA: Milei's Plan to Free Oil Market Slows in Congress
------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that Javier Milei's plans to free
Argentina's oil markets are getting pared back as the new president
negotiates sweeping reforms to deregulate the country's economy
with an opposition-controlled Congress.
At issue is the Argentine government's ability to stop drillers
from exporting cargoes of crude if it's concerned about shortages
at domestic refineries, according to Buenos Aires Times. This
right of first refusal has long existed in Argentina, and
international oil companies including Chevron Corp and Shell Plc
had lobbied against it, according to Buenos Aires Times. But the
latest version of Milei's signature deregulation legislation
backtracks on a move to strip away the practice and still allows
it, the report notes.
The Energy Secretariat didn't immediately reply to a request for
comment.
Still, the right to first refusal may hobble producers' plans to
ramp up drilling in Argentina's heralded Vaca Muerta shale patch,
the report discloses. That's because the possibility that an
export cargo will get blocked is a hurdle to negotiating contracts
with overseas buyers, the report says.
Milei has let Argentina's refiners hike gasoline prices, which
allows them to pay more for crude and lessens producers' incentive
to sell oil abroad, the report notes. That is already helping keep
a balance between exports and domestic sales, according to a trader
familiar with the matter, the report says.
Milei has been making multiple concessions to push through the
legislation, including suspending a move to privatise YPF SA,
Argentina's biggest oil and gas driller and fuel retailer, which is
spearheading development of the Vaca Muerta, the report relays.
Exports of light Medanito crude produced in Vaca Muerta surged by
39 percent last year to more than 100,000 barrels, accounting for
72 percent of all Argentine oil shipments, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.
S&P Global Ratings, on June 13, 2023, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC-/C' from 'SD/SD' and
0its national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'SD'. S&P also affirmed
its 'CCC-/C' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's
'CCC-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. None of
its rated bond issues are affected.
S&P said the negative outlook on the long-term ratings is based on
the risks surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties before and after the 2023 national elections.
Divisions within the government coalition, and infighting among the
opposition, constrain the sovereign's ability to implement timely
changes in economic policy.
Fitch Ratings also upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.
The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
===========
B R A Z I L
===========
ACHE LABORATORIOS: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Foreign Currency IDR
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A.'s
(Ache) Long-Term Foreign-Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
at 'BB+', Long-Term Local-Currency (LC) IDR at 'BBB' and Long-Term
National Scale Rating at 'AAA(bra)'. Fitch has also affirmed the
Long-Term National Scale Rating of its second debentures issuance,
in the amount of BRL400 million and due in 2027 at 'AAA(bra)'. The
Rating Outlook for the LT LC IDR was revised to Negative from
Stable, while the Outlooks for the LT FC and National LT Rating
remain Stable.
The Negative Outlook on the LT LC IDR reflects increasing
challenges to recover margins to historical levels and inventory
management amidst a more competitive environment and a change in
operational strategy. Ache's LT FC IDR is capped by Brazil's
Country Ceiling of 'BB+', as its operations are concentrated in
Brazil. The company's ratings reflect its strong business position
in the defensive Brazilian pharmaceutical retail market, with
leadership in the prescription segment and strong and
well-established brands with pricing premiums.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Competition Remains Tight: Competition with local pharmaceutical
companies remains tight with companies acquiring brands from
multinationals, expanding their generic product reach across
segments or therapeutic classes, and more aggressive commercial
conditions. Fitch expects Ache's EBITDA margins returning to the
25% range from 2025 onwards, in line with the average between 2018
and 2022, as the company invests to defend its position in the
prescription drugs segment and to increase its presence on
generics, OTC and special care. Nonetheless, higher working capital
requirements during the year, due to increased inventory levels,
also pressured cash flow generation and Ache has the challenge to
return to historical levels. Increased sales and R&D expenses to
sustain market share also pressured EBITDA margins, that Fitch
expects will reduce to 19% in 2023.
Temporary Reduction in CFFO: Ache's pre-dividend FCF should remain
robust. Fitch forecasts EBITDA of BRL1.2 billion and cash flow from
operations of BRL630 million in 2024 and BRL1.6 billion and BRL800
million, respectively, in 2025, compared with EBITDA of BRL972
million and negative cash flow from operations (CFFO) of BRL133
million expected for 2023. Lower than expected EBITDA generation in
2023 was due to milder winter, which reduced cold and flu
outbreaks, and affected demand for its main line of respiratory
medicines.
Fitch expects margins to recover and discretionary FCF to remain
robust, given the strong launch pipeline from previous years and
the company's revamped executive and new strategy to focus on
innovation. Fitch's base case scenario incorporates annual capex
between BRL250 million and BRL300 million during 2023-2025, mostly
related to the expansion of the new plant in Pernambuco, and
average annual dividends of BRL500 million to BRL550 million,
corresponding to approximately 8% to 10% of net revenues. This
results in negative FCF of BRL100 million in 2024, and a neutral to
positive FCF 2025. Ache has the flexibility to reduce dividend
payments to manage cash needs.
Unleveraged Capital Structure: Ache has maintained low leverage
ratios and strong credit metrics. Despite the expected lower EBITDA
generation in 2023, net leverage should remain below 2.0x. Net
debt/EBITDA is projected to return to about 1.0x by 2025, as
operating margins improve. In the past four years, the company's
average net debt/EBITDA ratio was 0.8x.
Positive Industry Fundamentals: The pharmaceutical industry has
positive long-term fundamentals, in light of the aging global
population, growing need for drugs for chronic diseases and
increasing access to health systems. The sector has consistently
outperformed the growth of the Brazilian economy. In the previous
five years, the Brazilian pharmaceutical market grew approximately
12% per year, indicating resilient demand even in adverse
macroeconomic conditions.
The higher incidence of chronic diseases and constant investments
in innovation for specialized treatments should continue to drive
the consumption of medicines in the coming years. The ability to
invest in R&D, to maintain a sustainable volume of launches each
year, in addition to expanding the ability to benefit from the
expected growth of the sector, will be fundamental for Ache to
maintain its competitive position.
Solid Business Profile: Ache has a solid and recognized brand in
the Brazilian pharmaceutical industry. The company's diversified
product portfolio, leadership in the prescription drug segment and
presence in the fast-growing over-the-counter (OTC), generics and
dermo cosmetics segments support its sound business profile. Ache
is the fourth-largest retail pharmaceutical company in Brazil and
has one of the largest sales forces in the domestic market. This
gives the company a key competitive advantage over local and
international peers, as it allows for extensive outreach to the
medical community, a crucial demand driver for prescription drugs.
Low Product Portfolio Risk: Ache's operating cash flow is not
significantly exposed to license renewals or patent expirations.
Similar to other emerging markets pharmaceutical companies, Ache
has a narrower R&D product pipeline than those of its multinational
competitors and a weaker portfolio of patented products. The
company's mature and constantly renewed portfolio along with its
ability to maintain a sustainable volume of product launches each
year and to increase the share of innovations will be key factors
in preserving its competitive position.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Ache's lack of geographic diversification, smaller scale and
relatively narrow research portfolio compared with top
pharmaceutical companies constrain its 'BBB' Local Currency (LC)
IDR, while the concentration of revenue in Brazil, together with
the lack of operating and financial assets abroad, caps its FC IDR
at the Brazilian Country Ceiling of 'BB+'. Ache's capital structure
has been consistently stronger than Fitch's 'BBB' portfolio and is
well-positioned in terms of leverage compared with most of the top
global pharmaceutical issuers that are rated 'A' or 'AA' by Fitch,
with average net leverage close to 1.0x.
Ache's National Long-Term Rating is in the same rating category as
Eurofarma Laboratorios S.A. (AAA[bra]/Stable), and both companies
are well positioned in the Brazilian pharmaceutical market
landscape and count on a conservative financial profile. Ache is
rated one notch higher than Blau Farmaceutica S.A.
(AA+[bra]/Stable). Compared with Ache, Blau has limited operational
scale and revenue concentration in a few products, with a focus on
the nonretail segment. Both companies have strong credit metrics.
Ache is positioned two notches higher than Uniao Quimica
Farmaceutica Nacional S.A. (AA[bra]/Stable). The latter has a good
operational scale and diversification, but Ache's capital structure
and financial flexibility are stronger.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Average volume growth of 9% per year from 2024 to 2027;
- Average revenue growth of 13% per year from 2024 to 2027;
- Capex between BRL250 million and BRL350 million in 2024-2027,
which includes the expansion of the new plant in Pernambuco;
- Dividend payout of 8% to 10% of net revenue per year.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
For the FC and LC IDRs, positive rating actions are limited by
Brazil's Country Ceiling of 'BB+' and sovereign rating of 'BB'.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Net debt/EBITDA above 2.0x on a recurring basis could result in
negative rating action for the LC IDR;
- Significant market share or brand deterioration;
- Negative rating action on Brazil's sovereign rating and Country
Ceiling could result in negative rating action on Ache's FC and LC
IDRs.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Strong Liquidity: Ache has historically maintained a robust
liquidity position. The company reported cash and marketable
securities of BRL200 million as of Sept. 30, 2023. Ache
strengthened its liquidity with the issuance of BRL500 million CRI
in December, that comfortably covers debt maturities of BRL656
million up to December 2025. Liquidity is further strengthened by a
balance of BRL300 million revolving credit facility, out of which
BRL150 million is undrawn, strong pre-dividend FCF generation and
flexible dividend payment to manage cash needs.
Ache's total debt of BRL1.4 billion consists of long-term
transactions from development banks such as Banco Nacional de
Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES; 12%), Banco do Nordeste
and others (21%), long-term debentures (56%) and others (11%).
ISSUER PROFILE
Ache is the fourth-largest pharmaceutical company in the Brazilian
retail market, and is among leaders in the Brazilian prescription
segment with solid brand recognition and a diversified product
portfolio. Ache develops, manufactures and commercializes
off-patent and locally unpatented products.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Ache Laboratorios
Farmaceuticos S.A. LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
LC LT IDR BBB Affirmed BBB
Natl LT AAA(bra)Affirmed AAA(bra)
senior
unsecured Natl LT AAA(bra)Affirmed AAA(bra)
AMERICANAS SA: Probe Circles Around Ex-CEO Now Living in Spain
--------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Bloomberg News, reports that the
former CEO of Brazilian retail giant Americanas SA was mostly
invisible to the public.
He avoided press interviews, was distant from investors and
analysts - and very few public photos of him even exist, Bloomberg
News reported, according to globalinsolvency.com.
Now, Miguel Gutierrez is infamous, the report notes. In the year
since a 25 billion reais ($5 billion) accounting fraud scandal
erupted at his former company and tarnished the reputation of its
billionaire shareholders, the Rio de Janeiro native has relocated
to Spain while Brazilian investigators continue their probe, the
report relays.
An internal inquiry at the retailer pointed the finger squarely at
Gutierrez as the mastermind of the affair that sent the 95-year-old
Brazilian retailer into bankruptcy protection and put 5,000 store
employees out of work, the report discloses. A congressional
investigation revealed documents - produced by an independent
committee hired by Americanas - that alleged that Gutierrez and
members of his executive team falsified advertising contracts and
hid supply-chain financing in order to minimize the appearance of
the company's debt and boost profits, the report says.
Investigators at Brazil's securities regulator, federal police,
public prosecutor's office and the internal committee are still
trying to untangle the inner workings of the suspected scheme, the
report notes. They all declined to comment on the state of their
investigations, the report relays. Meanwhile, two senior
executives have accepted plea bargains and agreed to cooperate with
authorities, the report adds.
About Americanas SA
Americanas was one of the largest diversified retail chains in
Brazil, with a wide platform of physical stores, robust e-commerce,
fintech, and has just entered into the niche food retail. It is
listed on B3, being indirectly controlled by billionaire Jorge
Paulo Lemann, Carlos Alberto Sicupira and Marcel Telles.
The retailer nosedived in January 2023 after becoming mired in an
accounting scandal. The firm filed for bankruptcy at a court in
Rio de Janeiro on Jan. 19, 2023.
Americanas sought protection under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy
Code (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 23-10092) on Jan. 25, 2023. White &
Case LLP, led by John K. Cunningham, is the U.S. counsel.
BANCO SICREDI: Moody's Affirms Ba2 CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed all ratings assigned to
Banco Cooperativo Sicredi S.A. (Banco Sicredi), including the
long-term corporate family rating of Ba2, long and short-term local
currency issuer ratings of Ba2 and Not Prime, the long and
short-term local and foreign currency counterparty risk ratings of
Ba1 and Not Prime, respectively. In addition, Moody's affirmed
Banco Sicredi's standalone and adjusted baseline credit assessments
(BCA) of ba2, as well as its long and short-term counterparty risk
assessments of Ba1(cr) and Not Prime (cr). The outlook on the
long-term issuer and corporate family ratings remain stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
By affirming Banco Sicredi's Ba2 long-term issuer rating, Moody's
acknowledges the cooperative's long track record of superior asset
quality metrics, underpinned by a disciplined risk management,
adequate capitalization, and robust earnings profile. As a
cooperative system, Sicredi benefits from a granular and low-cost
core deposit base that safeguards the bank from market fluctuations
and fosters its substantial loan growth capacity.
The Ba2 rating also considers the complexities of operating a large
federated cooperative system. Sicredi congregates 105 financial
credit unions with over 7 million associates in Brazil. The
cooperative primarily offers credit to its shareholders, with a
significant concentration in the agricultural industry, accounting
for 32.0% of total loans in September 2023.
While Sicredi has been focusing on expanding business in the larger
cities, the company has reported notable 30.6% compound annual
growth rate over the past three years (2020-2022) and a 9.6% growth
in the nine months ended September 2023, high compared to the
financial system's 4.2% in the same period.
Despite the strong expansion, capitalization and asset quality
remained under control, with problem loans ratio at 1.5% between
2019 and September 2023, consistently below the average for
Brazil's financial system, and tangible common equity ratio
(Moody's preferred measured) staying at 13.5% as of September 2023,
high compared to the average of large commercial banks in Brazil
(8.5%). Banco Sicredi has also been able to maintain high reserve
coverage levels, 3.2x times problem loans in Q3 2023, that helps
to offset risks associated to the rapid expansion of the balance
sheet, amid the higher interest rate environment since 2021.
Between 2022 and 2023 (September), Banco Sicredi maintained solid
profitability metrics, bolstered by strong loan origination
good-quality assets, and low funding costs. As of September 2023,
net income to tangible assets ratio was 2.1%, well above 1.3%
aggregate ratio reported by Ba2 rated banks in the same period.
Even with the increased costs associated with the expansion of the
franchise, operating efficiency declined slightly to 48.9% in
September 2023, from 50.1% one year prior, largely due to the
implementation of digital initiatives.
In terms of liquidity, as of September 2023, liquid assets to
tangible banking assets stood at 31.5%, a fall from its 5-year
average of 37.5% between 2016-20. However, liquidity benefits from
a central management, which is handled at its banking entity, where
credit unions are secured by a cross guarantee in case of any
liquidity or capital requirements. Depositors at each cooperative
are protected by the national deposit guarantee fund for
cooperatives, known as the Fundo Guarantidor do Cooperativismo de
Credito.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Banco Sicredi's ba2 BCA is constrained by the Government of
Brazil's sovereign rating and as a result it would only face upward
pressure in the event of an upgrade in the Government of Brazil's
bond rating. As the outlook on the Government of Brazil's ratings
is stable, there is limited possibility for an upgrade in the
ratings. Conversely, negative pressure on Banco Sicredi's ratings
would derive from significant weakening of its strong financial
fundamentals, including a deterioration in the quality loan
portfolio that could result from its rapid expansion and adverse
selection, which, on the other hand, would strain on Sicredi's
profitability and capital generation capacity. A downgrade in the
Government of Brazil's ratings would lead to a downgrade in the
Banco Sicredi's ratings as well.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in July 2021.
BANRISUL: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' Deposit Ratings
-----------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed all ratings and assessments
assigned to Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A.(Banrisul),
including its long- and short-term local and foreign currency
deposit ratings at Ba3 and Not Prime, its long- and short-term
counterparty risk aratings at Ba2 and Not Prime, respectively, as
well as the bank's foreign currency subordinated debt rating of B2
(hyb). Moody's also affirmed Banrisul's standalone baseline credit
assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA, both at ba3, and the long- and
short-term counterparty risk assessments at Ba2(cr) and Not
Prime(cr). The outlook on Banrisul's long-term deposit ratings
remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
By affirming Banrisul's ba3 BCA and Ba3 deposit ratings, Moody's
acknowledges the bank's entrenched operation in the state of Rio
Grande do Sul, which, despite the bank's regional footprint,
ensures a steady and relevant 38.6% and 20.8% participation in
deposits and loans in its core region . Over the past two years,
Banrisul's focus on secure consumer and agricultural loans
supported asset risk metrics under control amid the higher rates
environment since 2021. The main negative rating drivers are the
bank's below-peers profitability and modest capitalization, when
compared to other large commercial banks in Brazil. Conversely,
the bank's ba3 BCA is supported by a steady core deposit funding
structure, predominantly comprised of granular and low-cost
deposits from individuals, that historically ensured an ample
liquidity profile.
However, as of September 2023, problem loan ratio increased to 2.6%
of gross loans, from 2.1% one year prior, a deterioration
primarily related to the portfolio of SME loans, still below
pre-pandemic level between 3% and 4%. At the same time, Banrisul
maintained loan loss reserves at a comfortable level, covering 191%
of problem loans in September 2023, providing a buffer against
future charge-offs. Looking forward, Moody's expects Banrisul to
face manageable increase in problem loans as the banks gradually
shifts new loan origination towards unsecured personal loans, a
strategy that aims to reinforce profitability amid easing interest
rates.
Over the past two years, profitability remained below the bank's
historic average, with the net income to tangible assets ratio
staying at 0.6% as of September 2023. This was mostly due to margin
compression as a result of a sharp increase in the Selic rate,
which impacted the bank's cost of funding. The bank's strategic
shift towards higher yielding loans will address a decline in
profitability observed over the last two years. Focus on fee-based
businesses, particularly related to insurance and credit card
platforms, will help to compensate for competitive pressures.
By Moody's preferred ratio of tangible common equity (TCE) to
risk-weighted assets (RWA), capitalization is the bank's negative
rating driver, with the capital ratio at 7.2% as of September 2023,
flat compared to previous year. Despite this, Moody's expect
internal capital generation to continue providing enough room to
support its growth strategy. In regulatory terms, Banrisul
continues to maintain an adequate CET1 level at 13.4% as of
September 2023.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upward pressure on Banrisul's ba3 BCA could come from a
sustainable and consistent increase of profitability, which will
reinforce its capital position measured by tangible common equity
(TCE) to risk-weighted assets (RWA), while asset quality metrics
remain adequate and aligned to a secured-focused lending
operation.
Conversely, the bank's ratings could be downgraded in case of a
sharp deterioration on asset quality, and consequently on
profitability and capital. Further actions by its state owner could
lead to weakening the bank's fundamentals, and particularly its
capital position, evidencing governance issues, which could, thus,
lead to a downgrade in the bank's BCA and ratings.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in July 2021.
BRAZIL: Auto Industry Sees Major Boost
--------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva met with top executives from BYD and General Motors
(GM), announcing a R$10 billion (US$2 billion) investment in
Brazil.
These talks in Brasilia highlighted Brazil's growing electric
vehicle (EV) market and its role in automotive innovation and
eco-friendly development, according to Rio Times Online .
The meeting started at Alvorada Palace with BYD, marking its first
factory in the Americas in Bahia, the report notes.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
Fitch Ratings upgraded on July 26, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB', from 'BB-',
with a Stable Outlook. The upgrade reflects better-than-expected
macroeconomic and fiscal performance amid successive shocks in
recent years, proactive policies and reforms that have supported
this, and Fitch's expectation that the new government will work
toward further improvements.
In mid-June 2023, S&P Global Ratings, revised the outlook on its
long-term global scale ratings on Brazil to positive from stable.
S&P affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil. S&P also affirmed its
'brAAA' national scale rating, and the outlook remains stable. The
transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'BB+'. The positive
outlook reflects signs of greater certainty about stable fiscal and
monetary policy that could benefit Brazil's still-low GDP growth
prospects. Continued GDP growth plus the emerging framework for
fiscal policy could result in a smaller government debt burden than
expected, which could support monetary flexibility and sustain the
country's net external position.
Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook. Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and senior
unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.
DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low). At the
same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil's
Short-term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4. The
trend on all ratings is Stable (March 2018).
GOL LINHAS: Moody's Downgrades CFR to 'Ca' on Chapter 11 Filing
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Gol Linhas Aereas
Inteligentes S.A. (Gol)'s corporate family rating to Ca from Caa2.
At the same time, Moody's has downgraded to Ca from Caa2 the rating
on the secured notes issued by Gol Finance (LuxCo) and to Ca from
Caa3 the rating of the senior unsecured notes issued by Gol Finance
and GOL Equity Finance, all unconditionally guaranteed by Gol and
Gol Linhas Aereas S.A. The outlook is negative.
Subsequent to the actions, the ratings for Gol, GOL Equity Finance,
Gol Finance, and Gol Finance (LuxCo) will be withdrawn shortly as a
consequence of the filing for Chapter 11.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of Gol's ratings to Ca follows the announcement that
the company has filed for voluntary protection under the U.S.
Chapter 11 financial reorganization process and Moody's view of
some prospect for recovery for existing secured and unsecured
creditors.
The Chapter 11 filing is a result of an accumulated cash burn and
high financial leverage for Gol derived from high interest rates,
the grounding of the Boeing MAX aircrafts in 2019 and the pandemic,
which led to a weakening liquidity profile and an untenable capital
structure. At the end of December 2023, Gol had $8.3 billion in
total liabilities and $4.2 billion in financial debt (including
leasing obligations), of which $2.1 billion are secured. The
company's secured obligations include the outstanding $251 million
notes due 2026, $252 million secured notes due 2028, $1.2 billion
exchangeable notes due 2028, $183 million in debentures, and other
secured bank loans and credit lines. Unsecured debt relates mainly
to $42.1 million notes due 2024, $342 million notes due 2025 and
$139 million perpetual bonds. Gol's cash position was weak at $181
million (BRL905 million) at the end of September 2023 and the
company had $590 million (BRL3 billion) in gross debt maturing in
the short term (including leases).
With the Chapter 11 financial reorganization Gol expects to
strengthen its financial position, while maintaining the current
size of its operations. The company secured $950 million in a DIP
financing to continue operating during the reorganization process,
granted by creditors of its parent company Abra Group Limited (Abra
bondholders). The company was granted an automatic stay during a
first-day hearing in the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District
of New York and has had hearings to secure the DIP financing.
Under Chapter 11, Gol will continue renewing its fleet, returning
older aircraft that are grounded and receiving new-generation
aircraft. The airline will maintain the timetable to receive new
aircraft that were delayed in 2023 and ones that are scheduled for
delivery in 2024.
The CFR, secured rating and unsecured rating were equalized at the
same level, reflecting the automatic stay for all debt classes and
Moody's view that recovery prospects could vary among similar debt
classes.
The negative outlook reflects Moody's view of a prolonged recovery
period to Gol as part of the reorganization and its limited
financial flexibility, which could lead to higher than expected
losses to secured and unsecured creditors.
Subsequent to the actions, the ratings for Gol, GOL Equity Finance,
Gol Finance, and Gol Finance (LuxCo) will be withdrawn shortly as a
consequence of the filing for Chapter 11.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.
Downgrades:
Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Caa2
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Remains Negative
Issuer: GOL Equity Finance
Downgrades:
Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ca
from Caa3
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Remains Negative
Issuer: Gol Finance
Downgrades:
Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ca
from Caa3
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Remains Negative
Issuer: Gol Finance (LuxCo)
Downgrades:
Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ca
from Caa2
Outlook Actions:
Outlook, Remains Negative
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Passenger
Airlines published in August 2021.
ICBC DO BRASIL: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ICBC do Brasil Banco
Multiplo S.A.'s long- and short-term local and foreign currency
deposit ratings at Ba2 and Not Prime, respectively. The rating
agency has also affirmed the bank's long- and short-term local and
foreign currency Counterparty Risk ratings at Ba1 and Not Prime and
long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments at Ba1(cr) and
Not Prime(cr), respectively. Concurrently, Moody's downgraded the
bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to b2 from b1, and affirmed
its adjusted BCA at ba2. The outlook on the long-term deposit
ratings remains stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of ICBC do Brasil's BCA to b2 from b1, reflects the
decline in profitability and core capitalization over the last
three years that resulted from selected defaults occurred in its
highly concentrated loan portfolio. The high concentration on
single borrowers reflects its limited business scope leading to
highly volatile asset risk metric. In June 2023, problem loans
increased to 13.8% of gross loans, reflecting the delinquency of
two of the bank's top 10 borrowers. The bank has fully provisioned
for these exposures, which, along with limited business origination
and roughly stable operating expenses, has weighed on profitability
over the last years. In the six months ended in June 2023,
annualized net losses accounted for 2.2% of tangible assets (TA),
compared to losses averaging 1.2% of TA from 2020 to 2022. As a
result, Moody's adjusted tangible common equity (TCE) to risk
weighted assets (RWA) declined to 7.4% in June 2023, from 13.9% two
years earlier, indicating a smaller buffer against potential loan
losses. As of June 2023, the bank's regulatory capital accounted
for 25.7% of RWA and was 65% comprised of perpetual bonds issued to
the parent bank.
Given the recent asset quality pressures, ICBC do Brasil has
restricted its target market to larger companies, a highly
competitive segment that is well-served by major banks.
Consequently, we expect bank's lending activities to remain
subdued, whereas profitability will remain constrained by limited
business diversification and subject to further volatility due to
the risk of large borrower defaults. In this scenario, there is a
potential for capital erosion, as indicated by the top 11 debtors
exposures accounting for nearly 500% of TCE as of June 2023.
Conversely, the b2 BCA also considers ICBC do Brasil's ample
liquidity and diligent control of asset and liability term
matching, which are positive rating drivers, and help to mitigate
risks arising from the bank's concentrated and predominantly
wholesale-based funding.
The affirmation of ICBC do Brasil's Ba2 long-term deposit ratings
incorporates Moody's assessment of a very high probability of
support from its China-based parent, Industrial & Commercial Bank
of China Ltd (ICBC, A1 negative). This assessment results in a
three-notch uplift from ICBC do Brasil's own Baseline Credit
Assessment (BCA) of b2, and is supported by the parent's majority
ownership, management integration and the subsidiary's strategic
importance under the high trade links between Brazil and China. The
small size of ICBC do Brasil's balance sheet does not fully reflect
its capacity to originate business because the Brazilian subsidiary
acts as an originator for loans disbursed by foreign related
entities, which record the assets and revenues associated with
those operations.
The stable outlook on ICBC do Brasil's ratings reflects Moody's
expectation that the parent bank will continue to provide a high
level of affiliate support, and also incorporates the bank's
diligent reporting architecture and control of liquidity and
capital metrics.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
ICBC do Brasil's supported deposit ratings could face upward
pressure if the bank reports strong and steady origination of
recurring revenue, supported by an expanded range of product and
services. A consistent decline in borrower concentration would also
be positive for the ratings. Upward pressure to the ratings could
also derive from a multiple-notch upgrade in the parent's BCA.
Conversely, the ratings could be downgraded if there's a
deterioration in asset quality that impacts the bank's capital base
due to additional loan losses, or if there's a shift in its
conservative approach to liquidity management. ICBC do Brasil's
deposit ratings would face downward pressure if its parent's BCA
suffers a multiple-notch downgrade.
METHODOLOGY USED
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in July 2021.
=========
C H I L E
=========
BANCO DE CREDITO: Moody's Rates New AT1 Preferred Stock 'Ba1(hyb)'
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Ba1(hyb) rating to the
proposed Additional Tier 1 (AT1) preferred stock non-cumulative
non-viability contingent capital instrument to be issued by Banco
de Credito e Inversiones (Bci). The bank's notes, which have an
optional redemption on the first call date in the fifth year or at
any interest payment date thereafter, subject to the approval of
the central bank or any other government authority in Chile, are
Basel III-compliant. The securities are perpetual and will be
subordinated obligations and will rank junior to all of Bci's
existing and future senior obligations and will rank senior only to
Bci's capital stock. The terms and conditions have been defined to
qualify them for AT1 treatment pursuant Chilean regulations.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Ba1(hyb) rating assigned to the proposed AT1 preferred
securities is positioned three notches below Bci's baa1 adjusted
baseline credit assessment (BCA), in line with Moody's standard
notching guidance for preferred securities with contractual
non-viability and mandatory non-cumulative coupon skip mechanisms.
Under the terms of the notes, principal will be partially or fully
written down if (i) the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1 or
capital básico) ratio is less than 5.125% at the local and global
consolidated level, calculated according to the rules issued by
Chile's bank regulator Comisión del Mercado Financiero (CMF) or
(ii) a situation of insolvency for Bci occurs under Article 130 of
Chile's Ley General de Bancos and its compulsory liquidation is
declared by the CMF.
The rating also reflects the risk of a non-cumulative coupon-skip
in the event that the coupon payment of the preferred securities or
any pari passu instrument, is greater than (i) the amount of Bci's
unallocated earnings from the previous year, plus (ii) the
undistributed accumulated earnings from previous years, minus (iii)
any: (a) interest payment made in relation to the preferred
securities or any other pari passu instrument; (b) dividend payment
of ordinary or preferred shares; (c) repurchase of ordinary shares
or preferred shares; and (d) increase in value of AT1 debt
securities that previously had decreased in value.
The notes will have the following order of precedence or payment
priority: (i) pari passu among them and with (a) all other AT1
issuances and (b) any other subordinated obligation that may have
the same treatment as Bci's AT1 obligations by law or regulation
and/or by the terms of that obligation. The preferred securities
will be subordinated to (a) any non-subordinated obligation of the
bank and (b) any other obligation that has payment priority over
the bank's AT1 obligations by law or regulation and/or by the terms
of that obligation.
Bci's baa1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) reflects the bank's
business diversification that ensures steady earnings through
cycles, as well as stable capitalization that has supported its
growth strategy since 2016. Bci's financial strength also benefits
from an ample retail deposit franchise, despite its high reliance
on market funding. Asset quality has remained relatively stable in
the past three quarters, with problem loans (90+ days past-due
loans) at 1.33% gross loans, backed by conservative reserve
coverage at 186% of problem loans as of December 2023. This is
supported by a proactive risk management and reflects the bank's
well diversified loan book. Bci's net interest margin (NIM) fell
during 2023 to 3.28% (Bci's calculation), from 3.96%, in line with
lower inflation that affected inflation-indexed loans in the bank's
Chilean operations and higher financing costs mainly at City
National Bank of Florida, resulting in a lower though still ample
net income to tangible banking assets of 0.9%. Profitability
nevertheless benefitted from releases of provisions in the
commercial portfolio, that resulted in a 19% contraction in
provisioning expenses, and a subdued 0.8% increase in operating
expense related to investments in digitalization and technology.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
The rating assigned to the proposed AT1 securities will move in
tandem with the adjusted BCA, which is in line with the bank's BCA.
Upward pressure on the bank's baa1 BCA would stem from a higher
capitalization, a more subdued expansion in South Florida and lower
industry concentrations that continue to expose the bank to a
potentially rapid increase in problem loans.
Conversely, downward pressure on Bci's AT1 securities rating would
also arise from negative pressures on its baa1 BCA that could
result from sudden deterioration in its asset quality ratios, that
would strain on profitability and capitalization, or if
profitability metrics do not recover sustainably.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Banks Methodology
published in July 2021.
BANCO DE CREDITO: S&P Assigns 'BB+' Rating on New Perpetual Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB+' issue-level rating to Banco
de Credito e Inversiones' (BCI; A-/Stable/A-2) proposed perpetual
notes. The bank will use the proceeds for general corporate
purposes.
The issue rating on the additional Tier 1 (AT1) notes is four
notches lower than BCI's 'a-' stand-alone credit profile. The
four-notch deduction reflects the following:
-- One notch for contractual subordination;
-- Two notches for the risk of nonpayment of coupons; and
-- One notch for the risk of principal write-down if the bank
faces distress or nonviability.
S&P also views the AT1 notes as having intermediate equity content.
S&P based this view on the following features of the notes:
-- They are perpetual, subordinated to all senior debt, regulatory
Tier 1 capital instruments;
-- They contain no step-up features;
-- The instrument is not callable within five years of the issue
date; and
-- They can absorb losses on a going-concern basis through the
nonpayment of coupons.
===============
C O L O M B I A
===============
COLOMBIA: Economy Beats Expectations, Calming Recession Fears
-------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Bloomberg News, reports that
Colombia's economy grew at its fastest pace in nine months in
November, beating all forecasts and calming fears of a recession.
The ISE economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic
product, rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the statistics agency
reported, according to globalinsolvency.com.
That was its first expansion in four months, and exceeded all 15
forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Agriculture, oil and
mining, government services and the financial sector led the
expansion, while manufacturing and construction contracted, the
report notes.
The central bank began easing monetary policy in December amid
cooling inflation and weak growth, the report relays.
President Gustavo Petro and Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla have
called on the central bank to cut interest rates to boost job
creation, the report discloses.
Policymakers are expected to lower the benchmark rate to 8.25% by
the end of the year, from 13%, according to the central bank's most
recent survey of analysts, the report adds.
===================
C O S T A R I C A
===================
REVENTAZON FINANCE: Fitch Affirms BB Rating on USD135MM Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings affirmed Reventazon Finance Trust's USD135 million
fixed-rate notes at 'BBsf'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Fitch's rating addresses timely payment of interest and ultimate
principal at legal maturity.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Reventazon Finance
Trust
Notes 76138QAA5 LT BBsf Affirmed BBsf
Notes REGS
USG75463AA02 LT BBsf Affirmed BBsf
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Repayment of Notes Reliant on ICE Lease Payments:
The notes are backed by 100% participation interest on the
Inter-American Development Bank's (IDB) B-loan acquired through a
participation agreement, which gives the right to receive payments
under IDB's B-loan. Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad y
Subsidiarias' (ICE) lease payments from a non-cancellable financial
lease agreement for the operation and maintenance of the hydropower
plant will cover all payments on the loan.
Transaction Rating Linked to ICE's Issuer Default Rating (IDR):
Given the unconditional and irrevocable nature of the lease
payments, Fitch views the credit risk of these payments as linked
to ICE's credit quality. On April 24 2023, Fitch affirmed ICE's
Foreign and Local Currency IDRs. Grupo ICE's ratings are supported
by its linkage to Costa Rica's sovereign rating (BB-/Stable), which
stems from the company's government ownership and the implicit and
explicit expectation of government support.
Lease Payment Obligation Supported by IDB as Lender of Record:
To determine the strength of the lease payment obligation, Fitch
considered the role of IDB as lender of record of the obligation
being covered by ICE's payments, tied to ICE's ownership structure.
As the IDB will continue to be the lender of record and administer
IDB's B-loan, Fitch believes the holders of the rated notes will
benefit from the B-loan preferential, de facto, status provided by
IDB. Because of this, the credit quality of the payment obligation
is considered in line with other obligations of Costa Rica with the
IDB, and therefore, was notched upward (one notch) from ICE's IDR.
Noteholders Benefit from IDB's Preferred Creditor Status:
Historically, sovereigns have prioritized certain obligations, such
as obligations from multilateral development banks, when the
government cannot service all of the country's external debt. While
the B-loan is not a direct obligation of the sovereign, Fitch
believes treatment of the IDB as a preferred creditor extends to
ICE as the debtor, since ICE is a strategic government-owned entity
that receives underlying sovereign support.
Although Costa Rica has defaulted in the past (1981), neither the
sovereign nor ICE have ever defaulted on debt issued by a preferred
creditor. Currently, IDB's share of Costa Rica's external debt is
approximately 15%, in line with historical figures, which makes it
an essential preferred creditor for the country.
Adequate Liquidity Present:
The rated notes benefit from a debt service reserve account
equivalent to the next principal and interest payment due amount.
This liquidity provides certainty in case the transaction is
exposed to temporary liquidity shock. As of November 2023, the
account had sufficient liquidity to cover debt service on the
issued notes payment due in May 2024.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- The notes' ratings are linked to ICE's Long-Term Foreign Currency
IDR; hence, a downgrade of ICE's IDR would trigger a downgrade of
the rated notes in the same proportion;
- Changes in Fitch's view of the treatment of the IDB as a
preferred creditor may trigger a rating action on the notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- The notes' ratings are linked to ICE's Long-Term Foreign Currency
IDR; hence, an upgrade of ICEs IDR would trigger an upgrade of the
rated notes in the same proportion.
CRITERIA VARIATION
Fitch's "Single- and Multi-Name Credit Linked Notes Rating
Criteria," dated Dec. 18, 2023, establishes that the credit quality
of the risk presenting entity (RPE) in a credit-linked notes
transaction is typically determined by an IDR assigned by Fitch.
However, in some situations, a committee would consider using the
actual bond rating (e.g. senior unsecured rating, subordinate
rating) of an asset in place of the IDR.
For this transaction, Fitch has determined that the RPE's credit
quality is not commensurate with the IDR or any particular bond
rating of the obligor, as sovereign ratings do not directly address
all forms of obligations. To determine the credit quality of the
sovereign obligation and its notching from the sovereign IDR, Fitch
incorporated perspectives from its sovereign group. During the
analysis, it was determined that the appropriate notching uplift
from the primary risk contributor would be one notch.
===================================
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Banreservas Disburse RD$10.4BB to Hotel Sector
------------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that at FITUR 2024, Banreservas disclosed
that its direct disbursements to the hotel sector in 2023 surpassed
RD$10,400 million, contributing to an increased active portfolio
for tourism, reaching RD$42,487 million.
Samuel Pereyra, the general administrator of the bank, highlighted
the institution's efforts to support tourism, citing financing
approvals totaling US$118.95 million for development, remodeling,
and working capital across various projects, according to Dominican
Today. Currently, evaluations are underway for operations
exceeding US$700 million, equivalent to around US$1,428 million
earmarked for constructing 11 new hotels, two theme parks, two
cruise ports, and providing working capital, the report notes.
Pereyra emphasized that this strategic management has significantly
improved the quality of life in communities associated with tourism
projects, establishing the bank as a reliable ally of the tourism
sector, the report relays. He acknowledged the Dominican State's
role in creating favorable conditions, contributing to the
attraction of foreign investors, hotel chains, and various
stakeholders in the tourism value chain, the report notes.
These remarks were made during the "Tribute to Dominicanness"
cocktail party organized by Banreservas in collaboration with the
Ministry of Tourism, held at the Zarzuela Hippodrome within the
framework of the 44th edition of the International Tourism Fair
(FITUR), the report says.
The event, attended by the Minister of Tourism, David Collado, and
David Llibre, President of the Hotel and Tourism Association of the
Dominican Republic (Asonahonres), brought together senior
executives of hotel chains, investors, tour operators, and members
of the press. The occasion, designed to showcase the beauty of the
homeland, celebrated Dominican culture, art, and customs, the
report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
=================
G U A T E M A L A
=================
CT TRUST: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed CT Trust's Long-Term Foreign Currency
(FC) and Local Currency (LC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB+'
with a Stable Rating Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed CT Trust's
senior unsecured debt at 'BB+'.
CT Trust is a special purpose vehicle of Comcel Group (Comcel) and
a wholly-owned subsidiary of Millicom International Cellular S.A.
(MIC; BB+/Stable). Comcel's ratings are linked to that of its
parent, due to the lack of financial ring-fencing between the two
entities and Millicom's ability to access the subsidiary's cash
flow through dividends and other measures.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Parent-Subsidiary Relationship: Fitch takes a consolidated approach
to the ratings of Comcel and Millicom and projects Millicom's
consolidated net leverage ratios will be below 3.5x during the
rating horizon. This approach, which is a result of the application
of Fitch's Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage Criteria,
constrains Comcel's ratings at the 'BB+' rating level of its
parent, Millicom, despite its 'bbb-' SCP.
Millicom is a holding company that relies solely on upstream
cashflows from its subsidiaries. The absence of a legal
ring-fencing mechanism to limit cash upstreams to Millicom exposes
Comcel to dividend distributions that could pressure its FCF
generation, particularly due to the relative importance of Comcel
to the group. Access and control are also open, as there is no
formal policy separating funding and subsidiary upstream lending
occurs.
Leading Market Position: Comcel has a Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP) of 'bbb-' due to its strong capital structure and dominant
business position. It is the largest mobile operator in Guatemala,
with an estimated prepaid mobile subscriber market share of
approximately 63%. The company also holds a market share of
approximately 42% in broadband internet. These market positions are
supported by its solid network and service quality, as well as its
strong brand recognition. Near-term promotional activity by key
competitor Claro Guatemala (America Movil; A-/Positive) has
resulted in minor market share loss in mobile along with some
pricing pressures in 2022 and 2023, but, due to the relatively
stable two-player market and structural advantages, and Comcel's
spectrum position which was enhanced in 2023, Fitch expects Comcel
to continue to retain its leading market position.
Solid Margins: Comcel boasts one of the highest operating margins
among telecom operators in the region, with LTM EBITDA margins of
approximately 47% as of September 2023. Comcel's EBITDA margins
should remain steady over the rating horizon as easing competitive
pressures and operational savings from the company's efficiency
initiatives are expected to be offset by higher lease expense.
Low Leverage: Comcel's 'bbb-' SCP takes into consideration the
company's low leverage and strong FCF before upstreams to Millicom.
The company's net debt/EBITDA ratio is projected to remain under
2.0x over the medium term, backed by solid operational cash
generation. Fitch does not foresee any material improvement in the
company's capital structure in the medium term as excess cash is
expected to be upstreamed to Millicom. Cash flow from operations
(CFO) is projected to be around USD600 million annually through
2026 with capex in the range of USD180 million and upstream
cashflows around USD400 million.
Weak Operating Environment: Comcel's ratings are limited by a
relatively weak operating environment in Guatemala, as reflected by
weak systemic governance, low sovereign rating and susceptibility
to economic shocks. This can lead to more volatile operating
conditions, in terms of political and regulatory stability and
economic conditions.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Comcel's largest competitor, Claro Guatemala, is a subsidiary of
America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. (A-/ Positive). America Movil has a
stronger financial profile than Comcel's parent, Millicom, but
Fitch does not expect the company to materially take away market
share from Comcel over the rating horizon, as Comcel maintains a
leading brand presence and superior existing network
infrastructure.
Comcel's credit profile is strong compared with its regional
telecom peers in the 'BB' rating category due to its high
profitability, robust cash flow generation and low leverage,
underpinned by its leading market shares and solid network quality
and coverage. The company's credit profile is similar to its peers
Telefonica Celular del Paraguay (BB+/Stable), Millicom's subsidiary
in Paraguay, and Telecomunicaciones Digitales (BB+/Stable),
Millicom's subsidiary in Panama.
Another 'BB' category peer, Telefonica del Peru, S.A.A. (TdP;
BB-/Negative), has a strong market share in the fixed segment, at
approximately 42%. However, TdP has sustained weaker margins than
Comcel due, in part, to heightened competition. Comcel's lack of
geographic diversification, weak revenue diversification, and high
shareholder return constrain the rating.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Mobile subscriber growth of flat-to-up 1% in 2023-2025;
- LSD ARPU erosion in 2023, roughly flat in 2024-2025;
- Low single-digit growth in homes passed, with flat home ARPU over
the forecast horizon;
- Revenue generating unit per home passed stable;
- EBITDA margins near 47% over the medium term as cost efficiency
savings offset by higher lease expense;
- Capital intensity (including spectrum) above 17% in 2023 largely
due to spectrum payments, declining to 11% in 2024 and remaining
stable thereafter over the medium term;
- Shareholder distributions holding leverage at 1.7x on a net
debt/EBITDA basis over the medium term and 2.3x on a lease-adjusted
basis.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- An upgrade of Millicom, Comcel's controlling shareholder would
have positive rating implications.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A multi-notch downgrade of Guatemala's sovereign rating or
Country Ceiling could lead to a downgrade of Comcel's Foreign
Currency IDR;
- A negative rating action on Millicom due to net leverage
exceeding 3.5x on a consolidated basis or 4.5x on a holding company
debt/dividend received basis.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Solid Liquidity: Comcel has a solid liquidity profile backed by its
high cash balance, stable CFFO and well-spread debt maturities. As
of Sept. 30, 2023, the company held USD165 million in cash and
equivalents, which favorably compares with approximately USD8
million of short-term debt. The company faces no significant debt
maturities over the rating horizon.
As of Sept. 30, 2023, the company's debt was comprised of USD622
million in bank financing and USD871 million bonds due 2032.
ISSUER PROFILE
CT Trust is a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) created in the Cayman
Islands to issue senior unsecured notes on behalf of Comcel Group,
a group of several legal entities providing telecommunication
services in Guatemala under the Tigo brand.
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS
Standard lease adjustments have been applied.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
CT Trust (Comcel) LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed BB+
=============
J A M A I C A
=============
JAMAICA: EU Looks to Bring More Investments
-------------------------------------------
Javaughn Keyes at RJR News reports that the European Union is
looking to strengthen collaboration with Jamaica.
Felix Fernandez-Shaw, Director in charge of Latin America and the
Caribbean Relations, says the EU and its member countries are
looking at investment opportunities linked to climate resilience
and digital transformation, according to RJR News.
"[We want] to support companies that want to invest, but also
support the Government of Jamaica and the society of Jamaica in
attracting those investments in key areas. So it's not a general
investment purpose, it's about supporting the Jamaican government,
for example, in their bid to go have a strong renewable energy mix
in the coming years. I think it's 50% for 2030, which is a big
jump, and therefore that requires investment and technology," he
said, the report notes.
He said discussions are ongoing with potential investors and the
government, the report relays.
"It requires a conversation with the government, it requires
participation in the auction, it requires request for proposals. So
we are preparing some files also with the European Investment Bank
and with other member states, with the French, with the Germans,
with the Spanish. We are preparing some possibilities for European
companies to invest more in those frontier transition technologies
here in Jamaica," he added.
Mr. Fernandez-Shaw said the EU is also looking at training
opportunities for Jamaicans, the report discloses.
Work is also being done to help Jamaica as it seeks to fast track
its digital transformation, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable. The upgrade of Jamaica's
rating to B1 reflects the government's sustained commitment to
fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. The positive outlook
reflects Moody's assessment that a continuation of the favorable
fiscal trajectory will further increase Jamaica's credit
resilience.
S&P Global Ratings raised on September 13, 2023, its long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'BB-' from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings at 'B'. The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation that the government will remain
committed to prudent fiscal policies and reducing debt, as well as
supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate
regime and effective monetary policy.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
HERITAGE PETROLEUM: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba3 CFR to Positive
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Ba3 Corporate Family
Rating and backed senior secured rating of Heritage Petroleum
Company Limited. At the same time, Moody's has assigned a b2
Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), following the publication of
Moody's updated Government-Related Issuers (GRI) Methodology on
January 25, 2024 and changed the outlook to positive from stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action follows the publication of the updated GRI
Methodology. Moody's has expanded the scope of the updated
methodology to include certain key state-owned enterprises (SOEs)
that are indirectly owned by the government as GRIs, where: (i)
Moody's considers the supporting government could exert a very high
level of control, either directly or through the rated entity's
parent, over the governance or financing of the rated entity; and
(ii) Moody's considers the rated entity is strategically important
to the supporting government. Heritage has met both criteria as
listed above and is likely to receive extraordinary support from
the Government of Trinidad & Tobago (Ba2 positive), when needed.
Heritage's b2 BCA reflects the company's small oil and gas
production and asset base; adequate reserve life although
relatively small in scale compared to peers; and developing
corporate governance. Despite the company's long operating history,
its E&P operations only recently became a core business. From 2018
through 2021, Heritage managed to increase oil production by 22% on
the company's land and offshore assets operated by Heritage. The
company's BCA is constrained by the fact that in order to maintain
an annual reserve replacement rate of above 100% to protect cash
generation, Heritage will have to manage its operating costs
prudently and work with Joint Venture partners to grow efficiently.
Additionally, Heritage's execution risk is high because of the
operating challenges inherent to underground natural resources,
besides the capital intensity and the commodity nature of the oil
and gas E&P business.
Heritage's Ba3 ratings take into consideration Moody's joint
default analysis, which includes the rating agency's assumptions of
high government support in case of need and high default
correlation between Heritage and the Government of Trinidad &
Tobago (Ba2 positive), resulting in two notches of uplift from the
company's b2 BCA.
Heritage is 100% owned by Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Limited
(TPHL), which in turn is 100% owned by the Government of Trinidad &
Tobago. TPHL and its main subsidiary, Heritage, are strategically
important to the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago as
demonstrated by its relevant contribution to the government's
fiscal budget and dominant market share of the country's crude oil
production. The government directly appoints all board members and
is closely involved in TPHL's and Heritage's budget approvals and
business strategies.
TPHL and its subsidiaries received a Financial Support Letter from
the government, which demonstrates the government's willingness to
support Heritage in case of need. Additionally, the Minister of
Finance on behalf of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago agreed
to waive the Supplemental Tax Obligation with effect from July 2019
to June 2021 in order to maintain an adequate liquidity position.
The government's ability to provide support to both companies is
measured by its Ba2 rating, weakened by the high correlation
between the government and the company on credit factors that could
cause stress on both simultaneously.
Heritage counts on adequate liquidity. Heritage had $202 million in
cash in June 2023, and Moody's expects it to generate enough cash
flow from operations through 2024 to cover interest payments of
about $92 million, debt amortization of $57 million and capital
spending of around $179 million in the period. Heritage has a
comfortable debt maturity profile, with sizable maturities starting
in 2029.
The positive rating outlook on Heritage Ba3 ratings is primarily
based on the positive outlook on Government of Trinidad & Tobago's
Ba2 rating given the importance of the sovereign's credit strength
to the company's ratings.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade Heritage's ratings if the company manages to
increase its production and reserve life efficiently, with a
minimal deterioration in its financial metrics. Specifically, if
Heritage's total debt/proved and developed reserves remains
consistently below $6 per barrel of oil (bbl), EBITDA/interest
expenses remains above 5x on a sustained basis. Additionally, an
upgrade of the Government of Trinidad & Tobago's rating would
provide an uplift to the company's ratings.
Heritage's ratings could be downgraded if the company's retained
cash flow (funds from operations less dividends)/total debt
declines to around 15%; its interest coverage, measured as
EBITDA/interest expense, falls below 2.5x, with limited prospects
of a quick turnaround or if its liquidity deteriorates, coupled
with a slow execution of its growth plans. In addition, Heritage's
ratings could be downgraded because of a decreased likelihood that
the Government of Trinidad & Tobago would provide extraordinary
support to the company, or as a result of a downgrade of the
government's Ba2 rating.
The methodologies used in these ratings were Government-Related
Issuers published in January 2024.
Heritage Petroleum Company Limited is a national oil and gas
company owned by TPHL, which is wholly owned by the Government of
Trinidad & Tobago, with operations in that country only. Heritage
commenced operations in 2018 following the reorganization of
Petrotrin. Heritage's core operations are in oil and gas
exploration and production (E&P). Other TPHL subsidiaries include
Paria Fuel Trading Company Limited (Paria), The Guaracara Refining
Company Limited (Guaracara) and Petroleum Co. of Trinidad & Tobago
(Petrotrin).
Heritage is TPHL's main source of cash generation. Being a dominant
oil producer in Trinidad and Tobago, Heritage explores and produces
crude oil and natural gas, contributing around 64% of the country's
total oil production in 2023. Gas production from land and offshore
are consumed within Heritage's operations. With assets located
onshore and offshore, Heritage has strategic partnerships with
local and international oil companies, which are managed by its
joint venture (JV) business unit. Heritage currently operates 35
fields comprising 29 onshore and six offshore, 3,029 productive
wells, eight tank farms, and a pipeline distribution network of
around 1,400 kilometers.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.
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