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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Wednesday, July 3, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 133

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: Campaign to Build Foreign Reserves Faces Headwinds
ARGENTINA: Starts Second Phase of Milei's Plan With Policy Shift


B R A Z I L

AMERICANAS SA: Ex-CEO Arrested in Madrid in Fraud Probe
BRAZIL: Struggle to Sustain Improved Quality of Life for Citizens


D O M I N I C A

DOMINICA: Has Recovered Strongly, IMF Says


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Transport Costs up 9.7% for 12 Months to May


P E R U

ORAZUL ENERGY: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable


P U E R T O   R I C O

UNIVERSIDAD DEL SAGRADO: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' Issuer Rating


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: CSO, Central Bank Report 0.4% Rise in Inflation

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: Campaign to Build Foreign Reserves Faces Headwinds
-------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Simauchi at Bloomberg News reports that Javier Milei's
strategy to rebuild the country's foreign-exchange reserves faces
some turbulence.

On June 19, the last business day before Argentina's long weekend,
the Central Bank sold US$156 million of the country's
foreign-exchange reserves, the most since the president took office
in December, according to Bloomberg New.

At the same time, one of the country's parallel peso exchange
rates, known as contado con liquidacion, is much weaker (1,320
pesos/USD) than the official one (909 pesos/USD), the report
notes.

The authorities say there are no plans to devalue the peso in the
short term, so traders are opting to hold on to the greenback,
slowing the authorities' purchase of foreign exchange reserves, the
report relays.

                       About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.

S&P Global Ratings, on March 15, 2024, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and
its national scale rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its
long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from
'CCC-' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The
outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P
revised its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'.

S&P said the stable outlook on the long-term ratings balances the
risks posed by pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties with the favorable change in near-term debt service
obligations. S&P also expect no further debt exchanges that it
would likely consider to be distressed.

Fitch Ratings upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.

The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).

Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings.  The outlook remains stable.  The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.

DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.


ARGENTINA: Starts Second Phase of Milei's Plan With Policy Shift
----------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Bloomberg New, reports that Argentine
President Javier Milei's administration embarked on what it called
the second phase of its economic plan by announcing that it will
swap out notes held at the central bank for new Treasury debt that
it's still negotiating the terms of with private banks.

Monetary authorities will phase out its one-day repo notes that
currently pay an interest rate of 40% and served as the
institution's policy instrument, according to globalinsolvency.com.


Now, new Treasury notes will serve as the country's primary
instrument for administering monetary policy, Economy Minister Luis
Caputo and Central Bank Governor Santiago Bausili said during a
press conference, the report notes.

The moves aim to close what the two officials called one of the
"faucets" of monetary emission that risked further fueling annual
inflation already above 276%. Caputo and Bausili will meet with
banks to discuss technical details, they added, the report relays.
"In the first phase, we closed the faucet of monetary issuance for
the fiscal deficit," Caputo said.  "In this second stage we are
closing the second source of monetary issuance, which is the
interest paid by the central bank on interest-bearing liabilities,"
he added.

The shift will allow the Argentine central bank to move comfortably
toward interest rates that exceed inflation - or real positive
rates - without ballooning its own debt, Bausili added, the report
relays.  The stock of one-day repo notes stood at some 17.5
trillion pesos ($19.2 billion) through June 27, according to
Central Bank data, the report adds.

                       About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.

S&P Global Ratings, on March 15, 2024, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and
its national scale rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its
long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from
'CCC-' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The
outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P
revised its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'.

S&P said the stable outlook on the long-term ratings balances the
risks posed by pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties with the favorable change in near-term debt service
obligations. S&P also expect no further debt exchanges that it
would likely consider to be distressed.

Fitch Ratings upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.

The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).

Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings.  The outlook remains stable.  The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.

DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.




===========
B R A Z I L
===========

AMERICANAS SA: Ex-CEO Arrested in Madrid in Fraud Probe
-------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Bloomberg News, reports that Miguel
Gutierrez, the former chief executive officer of Americanas SA, was
detained in Madrid as part of an investigation into a massive
accounting fraud at the Brazilian retailer.

Brazil's federal police confirmed the detention of the "main
target" of its operation in Spain, identifying him only as the
former CEO of Americanas, adding that Interpol carried out the
arrest, according to globalinsolvency.com.

The detention comes a day after police carried out arrest and
search warrants in Rio de Janeiro as part of its biggest operation
yet into the case, the report notes.

Gutierrez, along with former director Anna Saicali, were targeted
with arrest warrants but police said both had fled the country, the
report relays.

Their names were then included among so-called red notices with
Interpol, the report says.  Gutierrez, who holds dual Spanish and
Brazilian citizenship, is accused of being the mastermind behind
the accounting fraud at Americanas calculated at 25.3 billion reais
($4.5 billion) which plunged the company into crisis in early 2023,
the report adds.

                     About Americanas SA

Americanas was one of the largest diversified retail chains in
Brazil, with a wide platform of physical stores, robust e-commerce,
fintech, and has just entered into the niche food retail.  It is
listed on B3, being indirectly controlled by billionaire Jorge
Paulo Lemann, Carlos Alberto Sicupira and Marcel Telles.

The retailer nosedived in January 2023 after becoming mired in an
accounting scandal.  The firm filed for bankruptcy at a court in
Rio de Janeiro on Jan. 19, 2023.

Americanas sought protection under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy
Code (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 23-10092) on Jan. 25, 2023.  White &
Case LLP, led by John K. Cunningham, is the U.S. counsel.


BRAZIL: Struggle to Sustain Improved Quality of Life for Citizens
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that Brazil marks 30 years
since the Real Plan, celebrating progress in life expectancy,
education, and income.

Yet, its global Human Development Index (HDI) ranking has dropped,
revealing underlying issues, according to Rio Times Online.

In 1993, Brazil ranked 73rd on the United Nations HDI. By 2022, it
fell to 89th, the report notes.

The HDI measures quality of life based on life expectancy,
education, and income, with scores from 0 to 1, the report relays.
Higher scores indicate better quality of life, the report
discloses.

Over three decades, life expectancy increased from 67.1 to 73.4
years, the report relays.  Per capita income rose from $10,180 to
$14,616, the report notes.

Education years for those aged 25 and older more than doubled, from
4.1 to 8.3 years, the report says.

Brazil's HDI score improved from 0.633 in 1993 to 0.76 in 2022,
marking high human development, the report discloses.

It now stands behind Azerbaijan and ahead of Colombia, the report
relates.  The UN categorizes countries into four HDI levels: low,
medium, high, and very high, the report notes.

Globally, the average HDI rose from 0.61 in 1993 to 0.739 in 2022,
the report says.

The US led the 1993 rankings with 0.882 but fell to 20th in 2022
with 0.927, the report discloses.  Switzerland, fifth in 1993, now
leads with 0.967.

The UN added 50 countries to its HDI measurements, from 142 in 1993
to 192 in 2022, the report recalls.  This expansion partly explains
Brazil's relative decline, the report notes.

However, the drop isn't solely due to new countries, the report
relays.  Brazil remains closer to the global average than to the
top, despite a narrowing gap, the report discloses.

In 1993, the US HDI was 39% higher than Brazil's, the report
recalls.  By 2022, Switzerland's HDI was 27% higher, the report
relays.

Brazil's HDI was 4% above the global average in the early 1990s but
only 3% higher now, the report otes.

Brazil's Hidden Struggle: HDI Ranking Slips Despite Progress
Today, Brazil's HDI mirrors Argentina's in 1993. Argentina now
ranks 48th with an HDI of 0.849. Brazil lags behind South Korea's
1993 position, which ranked 30th with 0.761, the report says.

Brazil ranks 51st in expected years of schooling, but 122nd in
average education years for those aged 25 and older, the report
relays.  It ranks 89th in both life expectancy and GDP per capita.

Regionally, Brazil shows stark inequalities, the report discloses.
Brasilia and Sao Paulo have very high HDI levels, similar to
Uruguay and Costa Rica, the report notes.

In contrast, eight states have medium HDI levels. Maranhao ranks
lowest, comparable to Tajikistan, which is 126th globally, the
report relays.

These disparities matter, the report discloses.  They highlight the
need for targeted policies to enhance education, health, and income
equality, the report notes.

Understanding Brazil's HDI decline amidst progress emphasizes the
complexity of development and the importance of sustained efforts
for improvement, the report adds.

                         About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the
long-term ratings is stable. S&P affirmed Brazil's global scale
short-term ratings at 'B' and its national scale long-term rating
at 'brAAA'. S&P also raised the transfer and convertibility
assessment on the country to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. S&P said, "The
stable outlook reflects our expectation that Brazil will maintain
A strong external position, thanks to strong commodity output and
limited external financing needs. We also believe Brazil's
institutional framework can sustain stable and pragmatic
policymaking based on extensive checks and balances across the
executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. We
expect a very gradual fiscal correction but anticipate fiscal
deficits will remain large."

Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable
Outlook. Fitch said Brazil's ratings are supported by its large and
diverse economy, high per-capita income, and deep domestic markets
and a large cash cushion that support the sovereign's financing
flexibility and its high local-currency debt share. Strong external
finances support resilience to shocks, underpinned by a flexible
exchange rate, robust international reserves and a sovereign net
external creditor position. The ratings are constrained by weak
economic growth potential, relatively low governance scores, high
and rising government debt/GDP, and budgetary rigidities. A new
fiscal framework introduced this year aims to anchor a gradual
consolidation process and address these fiscal weaknesses, but its
effectiveness is increasingly unclear.

Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook.  Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.

DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low).
At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil's
Short-term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4.
The trend on all ratings is Stable (March 2018).




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D O M I N I C A
===============

DOMINICA: Has Recovered Strongly, IMF Says
------------------------------------------
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Dominica on May 31,
2024.

The Dominican economy has recovered strongly following the pandemic
shock. Real GDP grew by 5.6 percent in 2022 and an estimated 4.7
percent in 2023 returning to pre-pandemic output levels. These
outturns reflect a rebound in tourism supported by public
investment and buoyant Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenues.
Inflation fell from its 2022 peak of 9¾ percent to 2¼ percent by
end of 2023, largely on account of softening world commodity
prices.

Fiscal and external imbalances have narrowed in recent years but
remain large. The fiscal primary balance improved by 1.3 percentage
points to a deficit of 4¼ percent of GDP in FY2022/23, reflecting
higher CBI revenues that were partly offset by higher capital
spending. Public debt has steadily declined from its pandemic peak
but remains elevated above 100 percent of GDP. The current account
(CA) deficit had been narrowing since 2019 but widened to 33.7
percent of GDP in 2023, as higher imports for the construction of
strategic infrastructure projects outweighed higher tourism
receipts.

The financial system remains stable. Banks are well-capitalized and
liquid, although non-performing loans are elevated, and
provisioning has fallen below the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank's
(ECCB's) regional prudential requirement. Recapitalization of
credit unions is continuing. Credit to the private sector has
lagged nominal GDP growth, while bank exposure to the public sector
has decreased but remains elevated.

Dominica's economic outlook is positive, predicated on a continued
recovery in tourism and the implementation of the country's
economic modernization and resilience building agenda. The
transition to local geothermal energy production, as well as
expanded airport and hotel capacity, is expected to sustain
economic activity, reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, and boost
tourism. The current account deficit is expected to narrow as
tourism exports expand while import growth slows as the
construction of large infrastructure projects is gradually
completed.  Meanwhile, public debt is set to decline gradually in
coming years supported by prudent fiscal management but remains
vulnerable to shocks.

Executive Board Assessment

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.
Directors welcomed the Dominican economy's full recovery to pre
pandemic levels. They noted, however, that fiscal and external
imbalances remain high with risks—including from external shocks,
natural disasters, and volatile Citizenship by Investment (CBI)
revenues—tilted to the downside. Directors concurred that the
ongoing economic recovery offers an opportunity to rebuild buffers
and advance reforms to modernize the economy and foster sustainable
and resilient growth.

Directors noted that a more ambitious fiscal consolidation would
help Dominica meet the fiscal rule, self-insure against disaster
risks, and reduce debt vulnerabilities. They recommended broadening
the non-CBI revenue base by streamlining tax incentives,
reintroducing the VAT applied to the electricity price fuel
surcharge, equalizing diesel and gasoline excise rates, and
strengthening tax administration and compliance management.
Removing the stamp duty on outbound money transfers would also be
important. Directors saw scope to rationalize inefficient spending
while prioritizing critical public investments with economic
returns. They encouraged tariff adjustments on key public services
to reduce the fiscal costs of state-owned enterprises. Directors
concurred that Dominica's financing strategy should continue to
prioritize non debt creating flows.

Directors underscored the need to protect the most vulnerable by
enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the social
protection framework, including by better targeting social
assistance programs. Reforming the pension scheme to ensure its
long-term sustainability amid rising demographic pressures would
also be important.

Directors emphasized the need to strengthen financial system
oversight and reduce balance sheet vulnerabilities, in particular
with regard to credit unions. Granting statutory independence to
the Financial Services Unit would help improve its effectiveness
and support risk-based supervision of non-bank financial
institutions. Directors underscored the importance of addressing
structural impediments to financial intermediation and supported
the authorities' efforts in this regard. They encouraged further
strengthening CBI program frameworks and addressing remaining
AML/CFT deficiencies.

Directors welcomed Dominica's modernization and climate adaptation
agenda, including the authorities' Climate Resilience and Recovery
Plan. They noted that the ongoing transition to renewables
alongside reforms to improve the business environment and address
labor market frictions would further enhance competitiveness and
growth prospects. Directors underscored the importance of improving
statistical compilation, tax administration, and public financial
management frameworks—including CBI reporting systems—to
enhance policy management. They encouraged the authorities to
leverage IMF technical assistance to support their reform efforts.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Dominica
will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.




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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: Transport Costs up 9.7% for 12 Months to May
-----------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaicans faced annual inflation of 9.7 per
cent in the transport sector for the 12 months to May this year.

However, looking at the month of May alone, the Statistical
Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) says costs related to the transport
division fell by 0.1 per cent over April, according to RJR News.

STATIN says this was driven by a 0.8 per cent decline in the prices
for 'Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment,' the
report notes.

Lower petrol prices mainly influenced the price movements, the
report adds.

                        About Jamaica

Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea.
Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily
dependent on tourism.  Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy
include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining,
financial and insurance services.

In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.  The upgrade of Jamaica's
rating to B1 reflects the government's sustained commitment to
fiscal consolidation and debt reduction.  The positive outlook
reflects Moody's assessment that a continuation of the favorable
fiscal trajectory will further increase Jamaica's credit
resilience.

S&P Global Ratings raised on September 13, 2023, its long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'BB-' from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings at 'B'.  The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation that the government will remain
committed to prudent fiscal policies and reducing debt, as well as
supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate
regime and effective monetary policy.  

In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.




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P E R U
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ORAZUL ENERGY: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Orazul Energy Peru S.A.'s Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and
USD363.2 million senior unsecured notes at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.

Orazul's ratings reflect the company's predictable cash flows
supported by its contractual position, historically efficient and
reliable hydroelectric generation assets and cost structure
flexibility. Fitch estimates gross leverage will sustain at an
average 4.7x over the rated horizon.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Contracted Cash Flows, Spot Market Exposure: Orazul's ratings
primarily reflect its stable and predictable cash flows, supported
by revenues primarily generated through capacity (availability)
payments and generation requirements contracted through U.S.
dollar-linked power purchase agreements (PPAs). The company
generates an average 2,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year and
contracts an average 80% of capacity. This structural contracting
mix provides flexibility for a renewable, hydroelectric-only
company as it factors in the potential volatility of its waterflow
input so as not to over-commit its output.

The balance of generated energy is either sold into or purchased
from the spot market, which poses potentially volatile price risk.
In 3Q2023 the company's purchase of spot market energy during
historically high prices amid a national drought resulted in USD0
EBITDA. Orazul's year-end EBITDA margin fell to 59% versus the
two-year prior average of 77%.

Solid Counterparties: Orazul's PPAs have six years of remaining
life as of YE 2023, with strong off-taker credit quality and
several longer-term contracts. Customers include the country's
major distribution companies, reputable mining operations, and
other large industrial clients. The company's total contracted
position should decline in 2024 to 67% of total power generation as
certain contracts expire or reduce in scope.

Fitch assumes that the balance of energy will be sold to the spot
market given the company's high position on the national dispatch
curve as a low-variable cost provider. Fitch's base case expects
PPA sales to increase again in 2025 and beyond with a shift towards
greater contracted energy volumes to unregulated clients. Fitch
also expects the company will recontract its expiring regulated
capacity given limited competition and capacity in the country.

Leverage Profile; Coverage Ratio: Fitch expects gross leverage,
measured as gross debt/EBITDA, to average 4.7x going forward.
Contracted leverage, measured as total debt/approximated contracted
EBITDA, averages closer to 7x over this same period due to the
company's structural spot market exposure. Fitch nonetheless
expects generally stable EBITDA amid increased PPA prices averaging
USD50/MWh, a normalized spot market with prices averaging USD35/MWh
(in 2023 this spiked to an average USD75/MWh), a consistently low
variable cost structure, and no new debt.

Projections assume total debt of USD363 million and EBITDA
averaging USD76 million (a 69% margin), and cash-funded capex
averaging USD8.7 million over the next five years. EBITDA/interest
expense will remain robust at nearly 4.0x over the rating horizon.

Solid Market Position, Reliable Generation: Orazul, the fourth
largest hydroelectric provider in Peru, is considered baseload in
the Peruvian system, prioritized within the country's order of
dispatch. The company has limited asset diversification and
relatively small business scale. However, its two run-of-river
hydroelectric plants are efficient generators with an average
capacity factor of roughly 66%.

The 266MW Canon del Pato and 110MW Carhuaquero plants have total
installed capacity of 376MW operate a combined 11 turbines in two
separate rivers, the flows from which yielded minimal historical
hydrological variation over time. The company also operates a 1MW
solar plant.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Orazul's closest peers are generation companies in the region, such
as Kallpa Generacion S.A. (BBB-/Stable), Fenix Power Peru S.A.
(BBB-/Stable) and AES Andes S.A. (BBB-/Stable). Their ratings
reflect stable, diversified asset bases and predictable cash flows,
supported by solid contractual positions embodied by medium- to
long-term PPAs with financially strong counterparties, and
manageable volume exposure or strong shareholder support.

Orazul is rated two notches below Kallpa, as Kallpa benefits from a
diversified generation mix and has a stronger market position as
the largest private generator in Peru. Orazul is also rated two
notches below AES Andes due to the latter's lower leverage and a
longer-dated PPA average life of approximately 11 years.

Like Orazul, AES Andes' consolidated gross leverage improved
following the deconsolidation of the large Alto Maipo asset.
Fenix's natural combined cycle gas-fired combined cycle plant is
highly efficient and serves as a consistent baseload energy
provider to the country, as demonstrated during the 2023 El
Niño-driven drought conditions.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Spot injection prices average USD37/MWh, and average withdrawal
prices of USD38/MWh through 2027;

- Roughly 67% contracted position in 2024 as existing contracts
expire, then approximately 77% of capacity contracted, with spot
sales accounting for the balance of capacity sold;

- Average annual energy generation of around 2,000 GWh, and stable
EBITDA generation with average EBITDA margin of 69% through 2027;

- Average regulated PPA prices to USD60/MWh and unregulated PPA
prices to USD36/MWh through 2027;

- Average annual dividends of USD47.5 million, while maintaining a
minimum year-end cash balance of USD10 million;

- Capex of USD18 million in 2024, primarily for improvements to
Cañon del Pato and Kondu solution projects (energy
commercialization arm), then minor capex averaging USD5.6 million
over the following three years;

- Initiation of refinancing of USD363 million 2027 bond commencing
in 2026;

- Ongoing capacity factor averaging 68% between the two plants, and
future hydrological conditions consistent with low historical
volatility.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Gross leverage, measured by total debt/EBITDA, falling below 4.0x
on a sustained basis;

- Maintenance of an adequate contracted position with similar terms
contributing to cash flow predictability.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Total debt/EBITDA substantially exceeding 5.0x on a sustained
basis;

- Excessive cash distribution to shareholders;

- A material rebalancing of the contractual base, resulting in
significant cash flow volatility.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Solid Liquidity: At March 31, 2024, Orazul's cash position was
USD56.1 million, and it had no short-term debt. Annual liquidity is
stable and supportive of interest and capital spending costs. It is
driven by reliable cash flows and a USD25 million undrawn committed
credit line. Fitch expects the company to maintain its liquidity
policy of more than its year-end minimum cash balance of USD10
million following distributions of excess cash to shareholders.

The company's only outstanding debt is a USD363.2 million bullet
bond that matures in 2027. Fitch expects the company to ably
refinance this debt well ahead of its stated maturity.

ISSUER PROFILE

Orazul Energy Peru S.A. (OEP) owns and operates two hydroelectric
power plants in northern Peru with a combined capacity of 376 MW
and a 1MW solar plant built in 2023, and represents the fourth
largest hydroelectric complex within the Peruvian system. The
company consistently yields 4% of the country's annual energy
generation.

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS

Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.

   Entity/Debt                 Rating           Prior
   -----------                 ------           -----
Orazul Energy
Peru S.A.             LT IDR    BB  Affirmed    BB  
                      LC LT IDR BB  Affirmed    BB

   senior unsecured   LT        BB  Affirmed    BB




=====================
P U E R T O   R I C O
=====================

UNIVERSIDAD DEL SAGRADO: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' Issuer Rating
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed Universidad del Sagrado Corazon's (PR)
Ba3 issuer rating and its Ba3 rating on outstanding debt. The
outlook is stable. At June 30, 2023, the university had total
outstanding debt of about $15 million.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The affirmation of Universidad del Sagrado Corazon's (Sagrado) Ba3
issuer rating incorporates its good regional brand, while also
acknowledging its limited wealth and scale. A third consecutive
year of enrollment growth is tracking to materialize in fall 2024,
reflecting the continued recovery from the disruptive impacts of
the pandemic and hurricanes. Through expense management efforts and
the resulting net tuition revenue growth from these enrollment
gains, the university is poised to sustain breakeven financial
operations in fiscal 2025 after recording similar results in both
fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024. However, the university's small $47
million scope of operations, modest revenue diversity, and limited
avenues for generating material financial reserve growth provide
for considerable financial constraints. Total cash and investments
equated to just $24 million in fiscal 2023, which supported a
modest 0.5x cushion relative to operating expenses. Similarly,
unrestricted monthly liquidity provided a thin 79 days cash on hand
in fiscal 2023. Weak geographic diversity and a high reliance on
Pell-eligible students continues to limit pricing power, reflected
in net tuition per student at just $7,428. Favorably, federal
financial support continues to provide credit uplift, with the
university reporting additional capital funding to address the
impact from Hurricane Maria.

The affirmation of the Ba3 rating on the revenue bonds reflects the
issuer rating and the general obligation characteristics of the
debt.

RATING OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations of breakeven
financial operations, steady liquidity relative to operating
expenses, and continued enrollment recovery following the
pandemic.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS

-- Significant increase in total cash and investments,
strengthening coverage of adjusted debt and operating expenses to
at least 2x and 1x, respectively

-- Strengthening in brand and strategic positioning, reflected in
improvements in student demand, revenue diversity, and overall
scope of operations

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

-- Erosion in operating performance, reflected in a sustained move
to deficit operations, leading a decline in liquidity to below 50
days cash on hand

-- Weakening in student demand, leading to softening enrollment or
a sustained downturn in net student revenue

-- Failure to achieve covenant compliance on the bonds

LEGAL SECURITY

The Series 2012A bonds are an unsecured general obligation of
university. There is an additional bonds test and rate covenant.
There is no debt service reserve fund.

The Loan Agreement for the bonds has two financial covenants
requiring debt service coverage at more than 110% and expendable
financial resources to debt covenant at above 35%. The university
forecasts ample headroom above each of these covenants, with
coverage at a respective 582% and 142% for fiscal 2024. A covenant
breach would not trigger an acceleration, but would instead require
the university to secure the services of a financial consultant to
help restore compliance.

PROFILE

Universidad del Sagrado Corazon is a small, private Catholic
liberal arts university that was officially established in 1935.
The university is centrally located in San Juan, which is the
Commonwealth's capital and largest city. While about 91% of its
4,279 full-time equivalent students are undergraduate degree
seeking, the university also offers select graduate level programs.
Its modest scope of operations is reflected in its $47 million of
total operating revenue.  

METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in the issuer and outstanding rating
was Higher Education Methodology published in August 2021.




=====================================
T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
=====================================

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: CSO, Central Bank Report 0.4% Rise in Inflation
------------------------------------------------------------------
Trinidad Newsday reports that Trinidad and Tobago's inflation rate
increased from 0.5 per cent year-on-year in May to 0.9 per cent in
June, while core inflation, excluding food prices, remained
unchanged at 0.3 per cent, the latest figures released by the
Central Statistical Office (CSO) have shown.

The Central Bank reported the CSO's findings in its latest monetary
policy announcement on June 28, according to Trinidad Newsday.

It announced the repo rate – the interest rate at which the
Central Bank lends money to commercial banks – remained at 3.5
per cent, the report notes.

Higher food prices were primarily responsible for the upward drift
of inflation, the Central Bank reported, the report relays.

Food inflation accelerated to 3.1 per cent in May compared with 1.1
per cent in April 2024, it said, "on account of price increases for
several locally produced and imported food items," the report
notes.

CSO data showed a year-on-year decline in real gross domestic
product (GDP) of 2.3 per cent during the third quarter of 2023,
with contraction in the energy sector (-10.3 per cent) offsetting
the positive performance of the non-energy sector (1.3 per cent),
the report relays.

The Central Bank said its production monitored during the fourth
quarter of 2023 and into the first three months of 2024, including
the sale of cement and new motor vehicle sales, "point to vibrancy
in some non-energy sectors, the report discloses.

"Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries
indicate that crude oil and natural gas (output) from the mature
fields continued to slip over this period," the report says.

It said financial-sector liquidity "remained ample during the
second quarter of 2024, in the face of an increase in domestic
financing by the government," adding that commercial banks' excess
reserves at the Central Bank averaged $4.2 billion in the first
half of June 2024, marginally lower than in May 2024 ($4.3
billion), the report relays.

"There was nonetheless some skewness (in commercial banks'
liquidity), leading some institutions to temporarily borrow on the
interbank market," bank said, the report notes.

Private sector credit, it said, "performed favorably," growing by
6.7 per cent (year-on-year) in April 2024 compared with 7.9 per
cent in January 2024, the report relays.

"Led by robust lending for motor vehicles, the growth in consumer
loans (10.2 per cent) surpassed the expansion in business lending
(9.5 per cent)," it added.

Interest rates on three-month treasuries in Trinidad and Tobago
continued to trend upwards, rising by 27 basis points since
February 2024, the report relays.

The corresponding three-month rate on US treasuries has been
relatively stable over the same period, the report says.

"In this regard, the TT-US interest differential on three-month
treasuries moved to -406 basis points in May 2024 from -432 basis
points in February 2024," the Central Bank reported, the report
notes.

"In its assessment of external economic conditions, the Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) took note of the relative steadiness of
global inflation, the likely easing of monetary policy rates, and
the geopolitical uncertainties. . . .clouding the international
growth outlook, the report says.

"Domestically, the low level of inflation and buoyancy of credit
were supportive of the ongoing economic recovery, although the
negative interest rate differential warranted close monitoring
given its potential impact on the country's external balance, the
report discloses.

"Taking all these factors into account, the MPC agreed to maintain
the repo rate at 3.50 per cent," it added.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

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