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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Wednesday, July 31, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 153
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
CLISA: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'CC' on Potential Debt Restructuring
B E R M U D A
NABORS INDUSTRIES: Posts $735MM Revenue in Fiscal Q2
B R A Z I L
BRAZIL: Rio Grande Floods Inflict Severe Economic Damage
ELETROBRAS: Government Gains Ground in Board Expansion
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: DOP35,000M Added to 2024 State Budget
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: Debt Delinquencies Rise
JAMAICA: Spending on Construction Materials Drop 26.3% in 1Q2024
M E X I C O
GRUPO GICSA: Discloses Consolidated Results for 2nd Quarter 2024
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Faces Egg Shortage, Price Surge
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Reduced Reserve Requirement Will Up Forex Demand
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A R G E N T I N A
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CLISA: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'CC' on Potential Debt Restructuring
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its global scale issuer credit and
issue-level ratings on Argentine conglomerate CLISA-Compania
Latinoamericana de Infraestructura & Servicios S.A. to 'CC' from
'CCC-'.
The negative outlook reflects the very high likelihood of a payment
default or debt restructuring over the next 30 days.
CLISA failed to make a scheduled interest payment on its $358
million senior secured notes due 2027 and has a 30-day grace period
to make the payment. The company is currently holding discussions
and examining strategic alternatives with its lenders for a
potential amendment of the terms and conditions under the current
indenture.
S&P said, "There's a significant risk, in our view, that the
company will choose not to make this payment within the grace
period, given the complex macroeconomic and industry situation it
faces. We believe CLISA's liquidity is fragile, and our forecast
sees cash flow deficits for 2024.
"We expect a 77% devaluation of the Argentine peso in 2024, which
will increase CLISA's interest burden since about 80% of the
company's debt was denominated in foreign currency as of March
2024. As a consequence, we also expect persistently high inflation
of 250% in 2024, which will continue to dent CLISA's EBITDA margin;
this is because tariff increases and their pass-through into prices
lag inflation while most costs are largely indexed.
"Furthermore, we don't expect a material pickup in construction
projects in the next few quarters as the government carries out a
fiscal correction. This will directly affect CLISA's construction
segment."
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B E R M U D A
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NABORS INDUSTRIES: Posts $735MM Revenue in Fiscal Q2
----------------------------------------------------
Nabors Industries Ltd. reported its second quarter 2024 operating
revenues of $735 million, compared to operating revenues of $734
million in the first quarter. The net loss attributable to Nabors
shareholders for the quarter was $32 million, compared to a net
loss of $34 million in the first quarter. This equates to a loss of
$4.29 per diluted share, compared to a loss per diluted share of
$4.54 in the first quarter. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $218
million, compared to $221 million in the previous quarter.
Highlights:
* Nabors Lower 48 rigs continued to set the standard for
performance on challenging wells. A major operator in the Delaware
Basin drilled its fastest four-mile lateral, utilizing a Nabors
PACE-X rig and a package of NDS technology. A second large
operator, in the Eagle Ford, drilled a single-run, four-mile
lateral in 14 days, using a Nabors PACE-M1000 rig.
* A large operator in the Bakken committed to Nabors' full
automation suite across all of its rigs, including SmartDRILL and
SmartSLIDE. With these installations, NDS will reach record
penetration of its automated directional drilling solution on
Nabors rigs.
* A major operator committed funding to support the next
generation of Nabors' RZR red zone robotics drillfloor automation
module. This includes an installation on one of this client's rigs
in the Permian, and the opportunity to scale up from there.
* Kuwait Oil Company formally awarded multiyear contracts for
three high-specification rigs. The Company plans to deploy existing
in-country rigs for this opportunity.
Anthony G. Petrello, Nabors Chairman, CEO and President, commented,
"Our second quarter operating results were better than we expected.
This performance was driven by growth and higher average daily
margins in our International Drilling segment, as well as stronger
performance in our Drilling Solutions and Rig Technologies
segments.
"Rig count continued to grow in our International segment, as we
started up previously awarded rigs. With a substantial number of
additional rig awards already in hand, across the Middle East and
Latin America, we have a well-defined trajectory for international
expansion over the next couple of years. We have scheduled 19
deployments over the next 18 months. We also have identified
additional opportunities that could extend this growth path.
"Stable pricing supported our results in the Lower 48 market. Our
average rig count decreased somewhat compared to the prior quarter,
essentially in line with our expectation. Activity declines in the
Northeast and South Texas were partially offset by increases in
North Dakota and our Western region. Results in our Drilling
Solutions segment were above our target, reflecting growth in our
International markets as well as on third party rigs in the U.S."
Segment Results:
The U.S. Drilling segment reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA
of $114.0 million, compared to $120.4 million in the first quarter.
Nabors' second quarter Lower 48 average rig count totaled 69,
versus 72 in the first quarter. Daily adjusted gross margin in that
market averaged $15,600, down 2% as compared to the prior quarter.
International Drilling adjusted EBITDA totaled $106.4 million,
compared to $102.5 million in the first quarter. Average rig count
increased to 84 from 81, driven by rig additions in Algeria and
Saudi Arabia. Daily adjusted gross margin for the second quarter
averaged $16,050, essentially in line with the prior quarter.
Drilling Solutions adjusted EBITDA was $32.5 million, compared to
$31.8 million in the first quarter. This increase was essentially
driven by revenue growth on third-party Lower 48 and international
rigs of 22% and 18%, respectively.
In Rig Technologies, adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million,
versus $6.8 million in the first quarter. The increase was spread
across business lines including capital equipment, OEM repair, and
energy transition.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow:
Adjusted free cash flow was $57 million in the second quarter.
Capital expenditures totaled $138 million, which included $56
million supporting the newbuilds in Saudi Arabia. This compares to
$112 million in the first quarter, including $35 million supporting
the newbuilds.
William Restrepo, Nabors CFO, stated, "Our overall results exceeded
outlook. The emerging international market strength we saw last
year is now manifesting in rig additions for our International
drilling segment. We expect our pipeline of scheduled international
deployments to drive an increase in rig count of at least 20% from
the end of 2023 through the end of 2025. This includes rigs in
Algeria, Argentina, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. On top of these, we
have multiple attractive opportunities. Our approach to these
opportunities will remain disciplined, ensuring they are consistent
with our free cash flow commitments over the next few years.
"In the U.S., our Lower 48 results were supported by continued high
utilization of high-spec rigs and strong pricing. As we look ahead,
we see opportunities to add rigs and offset some of the attrition
in the natural gas focused markets. We expect our rig count to
increase moderately for the balance of the year.
"We achieved significant milestones to solidify our capital
structure. During the second quarter, we increased the amount on
our revolving credit facility and extended it until 2029. More
recently, we placed $550 million of notes due in 2031. With these
proceeds, we intend to retire the similar notes due in 2026. Once
completed, our next maturity comes in mid-2027.
"The strong results drove our cash generation. Adjusted free cash
flow for the first half of the year reached $65 million. This
performance supports our previous full-year 2024 adjusted free cash
flow target of $100-$200 million."
Nabors expects the following metrics for the third quarter of
2024:
U.S. Drilling:
* Lower 48 average rig count of approximately 70 rigs
* Lower 48 daily adjusted gross margin of $15,100-$15,200
* Alaska and Gulf of Mexico combined adjusted EBITDA of
approximately $20 million
International:
* Average rig count up by approximately one rig versus the
second quarter average
* Daily adjusted gross margin of $16,200-$16,300
Drilling Solutions:
* Adjusted EBITDA up sequentially by approximately 6%
Rig Technologies:
* Adjusted EBITDA up sequentially by approximately $1.5
million
Capital Expenditures:
* Capital expenditures of $190-$200 million, with $80-$85
million for the newbuilds in Saudi Arabia
* Full-year capital expenditures of approximately $590
million, including funding for the recent rig awards
Adjusted Free Cash Flow:
* Full year adjusted free cash flow of $100-$200 million
Mr. Petrello concluded, "These results, and our outlook, illustrate
the success of our strategy. We remain committed to deploying the
global drilling industry's leading technology. The growing adoption
of these innovations by our client base across the globe gives us
confidence that we are on the right track. And as I've stated
before, we expect the extraordinary strength of the international
markets to continue driving our growth over the coming years."
About Nabors
Bermuda-based Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) owns and operates
land-based drilling rig fleets and provides offshore platform rigs
in the United States and several international markets. Nabors
also provides directional drilling services, tubular services,
performance software, and innovative technologies for its own rig
fleet and those of third parties.
Nabors Industries reported a net loss of $11.8 million for the year
ended December 31, 2023, a net loss of $307.22 million in 2022, a
net loss $543.69 million in 2021, a net loss of $762.85 million in
2020, a net loss of $680.51 million in 2019, a net loss of $612.73
million in 2018, and a net loss of $540.63 million in 2017. As of
March 31, 2024, the Company had $4.64 billion in total assets,
$3.37 billion in total liabilities, and $522.82 million in total
stockholders' equity.
* * *
In September 2023, Egan-Jones Ratings Company upgraded the foreign
currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on debt issued
by Nabors Industries, Inc. to CCC+ from CCC-.
In March 2024, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook to stable
from positive and affirmed its 'B-' issuer credit rating on Nabors
Industries Ltd. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B-' issue-level
rating on the company's senior priority guaranteed notes with
recovery rating of '3' and 'CCC' issue-level rating on the
company's priority guaranteed notes with recovery rating of '6'.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation for the company's
operating performance, industry fundamentals, near-term debt
maturity profile, and credit metrics to remain appropriate for the
'B-' issuer credit rating. The outlook revision reflects S&P's
expectation of reduced free cash flow generation and lower than
anticipated debt reduction.
In July 2024, S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'CCC' issue-level
rating and '6' recovery rating to Bermuda-based drilling contractor
Nabors Industries Ltd.'s proposed $550 million senior guaranteed
notes due 2031. The company's subsidiary, Nabors Industries Inc.
will issue the notes. The '6' recovery rating indicates its
expectation of negligible (0%-10%; rounded estimate: 0%) recovery
of principal by creditors in the event of a payment default.
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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: Rio Grande Floods Inflict Severe Economic Damage
--------------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that unprecedented floods
ravaged Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul region, inflicting severe
economic damage.
The CNC reports total losses of BRL97 billion ($17 billion), with
the state accounting for BRL58 billion ($10.3 billion), according
to Rio Times Online. Other regions have incurred losses of BRL38.9
billion ($6.89 billion), the report notes.
These floods could cut up to 9.86% from the state's GDP and
threaten nearly 305,000 jobs across local and surrounding areas,
the report relays.
This puts major employment sectors at risk, the report discloses.
The disaster will likely affect inflation and fiscal dynamics
across Brazil, underscoring the urgent need for protective measures
in commerce, services, and tourism, the report says.
Daily floods result in commerce losses of BRL5 billion ($885
million), representing 31.5% of the projected revenues for May, the
report notes.
The floods also severely impact infrastructure and supply chains,
leading to an expected 28% reduction in cargo traffic, the report
relays.
Tourism is severely hit, with daily losses potentially exceeding
BRL49 million ($8.7 million), the report says. These could total
BRL2 billion ($354 million) by mid-year and may escalate to BRL6
billion ($1 billion) annually, the report relays.
The transport sector, crucial for tourism, faces challenges due to
closed airports and highways, the report notes.
Agriculture and industry suffer greatly, as the state is a major
rice producer and vital in machinery, chemicals, and vehicle
manufacturing, the report relays.
In response, the CNC outlines several recovery strategies, the
report discloses. Federal aid totals BRL65.1 billion ($11.5
billion) for grants, credit, and infrastructure rebuilding, the
report relays.
Employment strategies reduce work hours and salaries, suspend
contracts temporarily with pay, and expand remote work options, the
report notes.
The report highlights the need for credit, proposing a payroll
standstill, tax debt renegotiation, and ending BNDES loan spreads,
the report relays.
It suggests deferring Simples Nacional and federal taxes for six
months, and additionally, starting the Perse Program to enhance Rio
Grande do Sul tourism until 2027, the report discloses.
These approaches seek to drive Rio Grande do Sul's recovery and
reduce the broader effects of this environmental crisis, the report
adds.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
As reported in the TCR-LA on May 6, 2024, Moody's Ratings affirmed
the Government of Brazil's long-term issuer and senior
unsecured bond ratings at Ba2, senior unsecured shelf rating at
(P)Ba2 and changed the outlook to positive from stable. Moody's
assesses thatBrazil's real GDP growth prospects are more robust
than in the pre-pandemic years, supported by the implementation of
structural reforms over multiple administrations, as well as the
presence of institutional guardrails that reduce uncertainty
around future policy direction. The outlook change to positive is
underpinned by Moody's assessment that more robust growth combined
with continued, albeit gradual, progress towards fiscal
consolidation, may allow Brazil's debt burden to stabilize.
However, there are risks to the government's execution of
continued fiscal consolidation.
S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the
long-term ratings is stable. S&P affirmed Brazil's global scale
short-term ratings at 'B' and its national scale long-term rating
at 'brAAA'. S&P also raised the transfer and convertibility
assessment on the country to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. S&P said, "The
stable outlook reflects our expectation that Brazil will maintain
a
strong external position, thanks to strong commodity output and
limited external financing needs. We also believe Brazil's
institutional framework can sustain stable and pragmatic
policymaking based on extensive checks and balances across the
executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. We
expect a very gradual fiscal correction but anticipate fiscal
deficits will remain large."
Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's
Long-TermForeign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with
a StableOutlook. Fitch said Brazil's ratings are supported by its
large and diverse economy, high per-capita income, and deep
domestic markets and a large cash cushion that support the
sovereign's financing flexibility and its high local-currency debt
share. Strong external finances support resilience to shocks,
underpinned by a flexible exchange rate, robust international
reserves and a sovereign net external creditor position. The
ratings are constrained by weak economic growth potential,
relatively low governance scores, high and rising government
debt/GDP, and budgetary rigidities. A new fiscal framework
introduced this year aims to anchor a gradual consolidation process
and address these fiscal weaknesses, but its effectiveness is
increasingly unclear.
DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-TermForeign
and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low).At the same
time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil'sShort-term Foreign and
Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4.The trend on all ratings is
Stable (March 2018).
ELETROBRAS: Government Gains Ground in Board Expansion
------------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that in a decisive move
within Brazil's energy sector, Eletrobras is set to adjust its
board structure to grant the federal government more influence.
This plan aims to increase the board from nine to ten members,
assigning three of these seats to the government, up from just one,
according to Rio Times Online.
However, the change is part of ongoing negotiations aimed at
resolving a legal conflict triggered by a law capping shareholder
voting rights at 10%, the report relays.
The Lula administration has contested this measure in the Supreme
Court. The government argues this cap is unreasonable, given it
holds 42% of Eletrobras' shares, Rio Times Online discloses.
Initially, the government sought to secure three out of nine seats,
the report notes. Meanwhile, private shareholders pushed for an
eleven-member board, proposing only two seats for the government,
the report relays.
The proposed compromise -- three government seats in a ten-member
board -- strikes a balance, potentially soothing internal board
tensions, the report discloses.
In addition, this strategic shift is seen as a way to better align
the company's operations with governmental policies, the report
says. It enhances oversight without altering Eletrobras‘ status
as a corporation without a controlling shareholder. However, this
restructuring reflects broader themes of governance and control in
privatized companies, the report notes.
The interplay between government interests and corporate
independence often leads to complex negotiations, the report
relays.
As this agreement approaches finalization, it could influence
Eletrobras' governance and potentially affect its market valuation,
the report says.
This change in board composition highlights the complex dynamics of
power in Brazil's privatized entities, the report notes.
In short, it reflects the continuous effort to balance operational
autonomy with government oversight, the report adds.
About Eletrobras
Eletrobras (NYSE: EBR) or Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. --
eletrobras.com -- is a major Brazilian electric utilities company.
It is Latin America's biggest power utility company, having a
generating capacity of about 43,000 MW. The company holds stakes
in a number of Brazilian electric companies and employs more than
25,000 people. The Brazilian federal government owns 52% stake in
Eletrobras. The company was founded in 1962 and is based in Rio
de
Janeiro, Brazil.
Its subsidiaries include Eletrobras Distribuicao Acre; Eletronorte
(Centrais Eletricas do Norte do Brasil SA); Eletrobras Electropar;
CHESF (Companhia Hidro-Eletrica do Sao Francisco; Sao Francisco's
Hydroelectric Company); and Eletrobras CGTEE.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed in April 2022, its 'BB-' global scale
issuer credit and issue-level ratings on Eletrobras. S&P also
affirmed its 'brAAA/brA-1+' national scale ratings. The outlook on
Eletrobras remains stable, mirroring that on the sovereign.
Fitch Ratings in May 2024 affirmed Eletrobras' Long-Term Foreign
and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and outstanding
senior unsecured bond rating at 'BB-'. Fitch has affirmed the
National Scale ratings for Eletrobras and its subsidiary Companhia
Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (Chesf), including Chesf's local
debenture issuance, at 'AA(bra)'. The Outlook for the corporate
ratings is Negative.
Moody's, in May 2024, affirmed Eletrobras' Corporate Family Rating
at Ba2 and Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) at ba3, outlook
remains
stable. The rating action follows Moody's change in outlook on
the
Ba2 rating of the Government of Brazil to positive from stable, on
May 1, 2024.
===================================
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: DOP35,000M Added to 2024 State Budget
-------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the Chamber of Deputies approved a
bill on Thursday, July 25, in its second reading, that adds over
DOP35,000 million to the general state budget for 2024.
The bill, proposed by the executive branch, modifies the existing
law on the general state budget for the 2024 fiscal year, according
to the chamber, notes Dominican Today.
The initiative received support from deputies of the ruling Modern
Revolutionary Party (PRM), while the opposition did not support it.
The bill proposes an increase in income amounting to
DOP35,360,004,423, the report notes.
A portion of the additional funds will be sourced from the Ministry
of Housing, the Electricity Distribution Companies (EDES), and the
pension system, the report relays.
The Senate submitted the text last week, and it was already
approved in the first reading by the Chamber of Deputies on
Tuesday, July 23, the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: Debt Delinquencies Rise
--------------------------------
Dashan Hendricks at Jamaica Observer reports that more Jamaicans
are falling behind on their regular monthly loan payments, but the
situation is not at this time causing a worry for either the
lending institutions or the central bank.
The data were captured in the figures for past due loans -- which
are loans that have not been paid from anywhere between 30 days up
to 89 days, according to Jamaica Observer.
"The stock of these loans on the balance sheet of the
deposit-taking institutions grew by 32.1 per cent to $42.9 billion
at March 2024 from $32.5 billion at March 2023," the central bank
said in response to queries from the Jamaica Observer. Further
data show past due loans rose again to $50.1 billion by the end of
April before declining to $41 billion at the end of May, the report
notes.
But the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) said the increase in past due loans
must be looked at in the context of the growth in the overall loan
book of the nation's eight commercial banks and one merchant bank,
the report relays. From that perspective, the ratio of past due
loans to total loans were up "marginally to 2.96 per cent at March
2024", the central bank pointed out, the report notes.
Actors in the nation's banking sector said the growth in past due
loans has been kept under control by financial institutions keeping
on top of those whose loans remain unpaid, using e-mail and phone
calls to give follow-up reminders within a few days after the loan
is past due, the report discloses.
"We have an active team that follows up to avoid these loans
reaching the state where they are moved up in the classification
from being past due loans to being non-performing loans," one
senior manager in the financial sector said, but asked not to be
identified for this article. A past due loan gets qualified as a
non-performing loan when it is unpaid for at least 90 days, the
report says.
The senior financier said "migration and unexpected expenses" are
amongst the top two reasons why people are late to pay their loans
each month, the report notes. Still it was noted that the
introduction of credit bureaus in Jamaica has also helped, with
people mindful of the harm non-payment can cause to their credit
history, and the impact that can have on future loan requests also
playing a role in modifying behaviour, the report relays.
Another banker, however, said members of the sector are bracing to
see an increase in past due loans for July, with the late payments
linked to households redirecting spending to help recover from
Hurricane Beryl, the report relays. Individual/households account
for 62 per cent of past due loans in the financial sector. At least
one bank said considerations are already in train for some payment
relief, but added that the details are yet to be worked out and
will depend on the level of increase in past due loans going into
August, the report notes.
Also giving banks headache are people who migrate each year, and
turn to banks to borrow money they have no intention of repaying.
The senior banker, who spoke with the Business Observer for this
story, said at least one group of migrants is culpable more than
another, but declined to name the group, the report discloses.
Overall, migrants, listed as overseas residents, were late on
payments totalling $6.8 billion in March, the report notes. That's
about 15.8 per cent of the total for that month, the report relays.
Later data show it has since increased to $10.2 billion in May or
about 25 per cent of all repayments that are past due, the report
says.
Still, these sums owing are not yet a worry for the sector, the
report discloses. The central bank said the "system is adequately
provisioned," the report notes. Its own data show $40 billion has
been set aside to deal with losses, a figure that was 20 per cent
higher than the total non-performing loans in the BOJ supervised
financial system, the report relays. For its part, non-performing
loans only accounted for 2.3 per cent of all loans in March, the
report says. The central bank, pointing this out, said with
non-performing loans being below the 10 per cent threshold, it
doesn't "warrant heightened supervisory concerns".
What, however, is posing a risk to financial institutions and
credit portfolios is the heightened interest rates that are a
response to higher than targeted inflation for most of the last
three years, the report says. And though the BOJ said financial
institutions have been recording fair value losses on their balance
sheets with relatively high interest rates impacting their assets,
particularly bonds and equities, it said those losses have been
declined, as entities adjust their portfolios as interest rates
stay higher for longer, the report discloses.
"Specifically, fair value losses for deposit-taking institutions
have fallen from $9 billion at end March 2023 to $7.8 billion at
end March 2024. For securities dealers, the 10 largest securities
dealers, fair value losses have fallen from $15.4 billion at
end-March 2023 to $13.1 billion at end-March 2024," it said in
responses to Business Observer queries, the report notes.
Overall though, it noted that inflation has generally settled
within the BOJ's target range over the three months preceding June
2024 but the risks to inflation in the future are now skewed to the
upside, particularly in the short term, the report relates. The
Monetary Policy Committee of the bank also initiated a program of
monetary loosening but it noted that future monetary policy
decisions will continue to depend on incoming data, the report
notes. Based on the foregoing, DTIs and securities dealers were
subjected to market-based and credit-related stress tests. The
results showed that the financial system remained largely resilient
to these macrofinancial shocks, the report says.
The bank will remain vigilant in monitoring and stress testing the
credit and investment portfolios of DTIs and securities dealers to
ensure that the levels of liquidity and capital are sufficient in
the current environment, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea.
Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily
dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy
include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining,
financial and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable. The upgrade of Jamaica's
rating to B1 reflects the government's sustained commitment to
fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. The positive outlook
reflects Moody's assessment that a continuation of the favorable
fiscal trajectory will further increase Jamaica's credit
resilience.
S&P Global Ratings raised on September 13, 2023, its long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'BB-' from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings at 'B'. The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation that the government will remain
committed to prudent fiscal policies and reducing debt, as well as
supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate
regime and effective monetary policy.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.
JAMAICA: Spending on Construction Materials Drop 26.3% in 1Q2024
----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN)
says local spending on 'Construction Materials' declined by 26.3
per cent in the first quarter of the year.
The cost to bring in goods for that category was US$113.2 million
for the three months ended March, according to RJR News.
This was a result of lower imports in the group non-metallic
mineral manufactures, the report notes.
Spending on imports in the group 'Food (including Beverages) Mainly
for Industry' declined by 21 per cent to US$43.6 million, the
report relays.
But 'Parts and Accessories of Capital Goods (except Transport
Equipment)', increased to US$76.8 million, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea.
Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily
dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy
include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining,
financial and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable. The upgrade of Jamaica's
rating to B1 reflects the government's sustained commitment to
fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. The positive outlook
reflects Moody's assessment that a continuation of the favorable
fiscal trajectory will further increase Jamaica's credit
resilience.
S&P Global Ratings raised on September 13, 2023, its long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'BB-' from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings at 'B'. The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation that the government will remain
committed to prudent fiscal policies and reducing debt, as well as
supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate
regime and effective monetary policy.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.
===========
M E X I C O
===========
GRUPO GICSA: Discloses Consolidated Results for 2nd Quarter 2024
----------------------------------------------------------------
GRUPO GICSA, S.A.B. de C.V., owner and manager of 18
income-generating properties (twelve shopping malls, five
mixed-used properties, and one corporate office building) disclosed
its 2Q24 results.
Abraham Cababie, CEO of GRUPO GICSA, stated: "During 2Q24, our main
operating indicators continued with stable results. Same-property
visitor traffic was 2% higher compared to 2Q23, and our tenant
sales grew 3% during the quarter. On the other hand, the occupancy
rate of our operating portfolio remained at 86% and our rents per
square meter stood at 374 pesos.
"Regarding our commercialization, in 2Q24, 63 new lease contracts
were signed, equivalent to 21,786 square meters, meanwhile, 55 new
lease spaces began operations, corresponding to 14,952 square
meters.
"As for our main financial indicators, this quarter's results
recorded moderate growth. Consolidated and proportional NOI
continued to grow 6% compared to 2Q23, with results of Ps. 894
million and Ps. 741 million, respectively. Consolidated and
proportional EBITDA for 2Q24 was Ps. 829 million and Ps. 676
million, with increases of 5%, compared to 2Q23.
"On the development side, we continue to make progress in the
stabilization of Grand Outlet Riviera Maya shopping mall, which had
its soft opening in late 2023; regarding Paseo Metepec, we continue
advancing in its development, which is currently 89% complete.
Finally, our residential project Cero5Cien, has reached 92%
construction progress.
"We will continue to work in line with our CORR strategy (Collect,
Operate, Renew and Rent) to gradually improve our occupancy levels
and commercial offer.
"As always, we appreciate your trust and continued support".
About GRUPO GICSA
Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. -- https://www.gicsa.com.mx/home -- is a
leading company in the development, investment, commercialization
and operation of shopping malls, corporate offices and mixed used
well known for their high-quality standards, which transform and
create new development spaces, lifestyles, and employment in
Mexico, in accordance with its history and executed projects.
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter - Latin America on
July 30, 2024, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its 'CCC+' long-term
global scale issuer credit rating on Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. at
the company's request. The outlook was stable at the time of the
withdrawal.
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Faces Egg Shortage, Price Surge
--------------------------------------------------
Vishanna Phagoo at Trinidad Express reports that Trinidad and
Tobago is facing a shortage of eggs, coupled with an exorbitant
price increase.
This is attributed to adverse weather conditions hindering egg
production, while retailers are potentially taking advantage of the
situation, according to the report.
President of the Agricultural Society of T&T Daryl Rampersad, in a
telephone interview with Express, suggested that the price increase
might be due to rising feed costs for chickens, the report notes.
He explained via telephone: "We had two increases in feed costs
within the last six months, and that would have contributed to the
increase in prices," the report relays.
However, vice-president of the Association of T&T Table Egg
Producers Dennis Ramsingh stated that there has been no official
price increase among farmers and producers, the report says.
"There was no official increase in egg prices. Now, some producers
may have increased, but the vast majority of producers which are
farmers—we have not increased our prices. Maybe the retailers
have taken it upon themselves to increase," Ramsingh said, the
report discloses.
Ramsingh added that the shortage is due to supply not meeting
demand, the report relays.
He believes retailers are exploiting the situation. "Farmers are
not benefiting from this price increase," he added.
The report discloses that Ramsingh said the shortage stems from two
main factors: adverse weather conditions earlier this year (from
February to May) and the annual replacement of birds between May
and June.
He explained that chickens typically need five months to produce
eggs, and this period of replacement, combined with the peak of the
dry season, contributed to the shortage, the report notes.
"There are strategic means by which we would be replacing those
birds. But every year around this time, the shortage begins,
because of that replacing of birds, paired with the peak of the dry
season," he added.
The report relays that Ramsingh also shared that he has taken it
upon himself to mitigate some of these natural causes on his farm
to aid with the shortage.
"We're seeing a lot of extreme weather patterns and I don't know
how we're going to go forward, but I have taken it upon myself—I
can't say this for everybody—to implement some means of trying to
control the actual temperatures in the houses," he said, the report
notes.
He said this may be the best way to alleviate the effects of the
adverse weather on the birds, the report discloses.
Additionally, Ramsingh noted that the previous influx of imported
eggs, which were priced lower, left local producers with little
room for competition, the report says.
The US is also experiencing an egg shortage due to Avian influenza,
which primarily affects birds, the report relays.
Ramsingh expects production to increase soon as weather conditions
improve, the report says.
"Let's hope the birds weren't affected too tremendously so that
they can come back into production. I have seen a little
improvement on my end. Also, there are a lot of producers that
have birds on the floor to come into production. . . . I am one of
them again."
The report discloses that outgoing president of the Supermarket
Association of T&T Rajiv Diptee said, after a conversation with
Ramsingh, around 80,000 to 100,000 birds should begin laying eggs
in July and August. "As a result, we should see a return to normal
levels of local egg supply within the next few weeks," said Diptee
in a WhatsApp exchange, the report adds.
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Reduced Reserve Requirement Will Up Forex Demand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Vishanna Phagoo at Trinidad Express reports that following the
Central Bank of T&T's announcement of a reduction in reserve
requirements for commercial banks to 10% from 14%, economist and
former minister in the Ministry of Finance Mariano Browne said this
could increase foreign exchange demands.
"Since the effect of reducing the reserve requirement is
potentially expansionary by increasing consumption, we can presume
that the CBTT is attempting to expand demand and increase economic
activity. The CBTT has stated that 2024 economic growth prospects
were 'modestly' favourable. Perhaps this injection in disposable
income is to help boost economic growth," said Browne in a WhatsApp
exchange with the Express Business.
However, Browne noted the real risk of expanding the economy is the
risk of inflation and an increase in foreign exchange demand,
according to Trinidad Express.
"This expansion is not likely to lead to moderate inflation.
However, any expansion will increase the demand for foreign
exchange, which is already in short supply. That is the real danger
as foreign exchange reserves have continued to slide as energy
import values and volumes have declined," explained Browne, the
report notes. He added that this reduction suggests banks will
have more money to lend, the report relays.
"Making more loans has a positive effect on consumer buying power.
This means that banks can lend more and the loan funds are then
spent or invested," Browne said, the report discloses.
He added that this reduction could also potentially increase
consumption, the report says.
In a column former deputy governor of the Central Bank Dr Terrence
Farrell questioned the "mysterious monetary policy," the report
notes.
"The decline in the first two weeks of July compared to June was
about 29%. But it is strange that the Central Bank would act based
on such a short period of data. In fact looking at the excess
reserves data, in January 2024, average excess reserves were about
$3 billion and that prompted no alarm. Its release of June 28th
noted that there was some ‘skewness' in liquidity among banks
leading to activation of the inter-bank market. The published data
on inter-bank borrowing go up to April, but in December 2023,
inter-bank borrowing reached $1.26 billion, but again that did not
prompt any alarm," Farrell stated, the report relays.
Farrell said it may be that the Bank thinks that the decline in
excess reserves is permanent, the report says.
He said the other factor which can impact system liquidity is a
significant increase in short-term borrowing by the government, the
report discloses.
This, he said, is normally done by issuance of treasury bills or
treasury notes, the report notes.
"But the available data disclose no increase in the treasury bill
issue outstanding nor an increase in the discount rate on treasury
bills. Alternatively, certain banks may have lent to the government
causing their liquidity to decline sharply and driving them to
access the inter-bank market. This might be the ‘skewness'
referred to by the Central Bank in its June 28 release," he added.
The CBTT announced the reduction in a release on July 19 following
a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held the same day, the
report relays.
The release stated that the MPC examined the recent decline in
excess reserves of commercial banks, which are the deposits held by
banks at the Central Bank in excess of the required reserve ratio
of 14% of prescribed liabilities (deposits and short-term
borrowings), the report says.
"The daily average of excess reserves measured $2,766 million from
July 1 to July 18 compared to $3,914 million in June 2024. The MPC
reaffirmed the appropriateness of the overall stance of monetary
policy, as articulated most recently in its June 28 Monetary Policy
Announcement," it stated, the report adds.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
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The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
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* * * End of Transmission * * *