---

       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, August 9, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 160

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: Int'l Media Dig Into the B-side of the Milei Promise


B R A Z I L

OI SA: 1st Round Hearing for ClientCo Sale Resumed on Aug. 6


C O L O M B I A

ECOPETROL S.A.: Discloses Partial Redemption of USD250M 2026 Notes


G U A T E M A L A

EL SALVADOR: Makes Progress in IMF Talk for Fund-Supported Program
GUATEMALA: Risks to Outlook Remain; Economy Expected to Grow 3.5%


J A M A I C A

CARIBBEAN CEMENT: Posts $2.35 Billion Profit for Q2


M E X I C O

NEW FORTRESS: Moves to Reassure on its Fast LNG Production


P A N A M A

BAC INT'L: Moody's Affirms 'Ba1' LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable


P E R U

VOLCAN COMPANIA: Moody's Rates New $365MM Exchange Notes 'Caa1'


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Analyst Warns of Energy Fallout

                           - - - - -


=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: Int'l Media Dig Into the B-side of the Milei Promise
---------------------------------------------------------------
Marcelo J. Garcia, writing for the Buenos Aires Times, reports that
little by little, the news about Argentina in the world's business
capitals is becoming less shiny than it was a few months ago.
President Javier Milei is no longer a promise but a person who must
deliver, according to Buenos Aires Times.  Based on a battery of
stories in recent days, the international press in Buenos Aires has
decreed that his honeymoon is over, the report notes.

The Financial Times was the most explicit, says the report.
"Milei's market honeymoon ends as investors question economic
plan," reads the headline, the report relays. Correspondent Ciara
Nugent writes: "Delays in building up foreign currency reserves
will slow the government's plan to lift currency controls - a
prerequisite for foreign investment and significant economic growth
- and increase the likelihood that the government will have to
default on more than US$9 billion in repayments on its foreign
currency debt next year," the report notes.

Reports on the country's troubled macroeconomics, which dominated
the news coming out of the country in the initial months of the
Milei administration, are triggering a growing interest in
microeconomics, as represented by the daily lives of Argentines
amid a massive recession, the report relays.  The Associated Press
described the current situation as "the worst economic crisis in
decades" with people putting their "ingenuity to the test" to make
ends meet, the report discloses.  Reporters Almudena Calatrava and
Isabel Debre tell the stories of people who set up portable toilets
at street demonstrations or became teachers for would-be stars of
the online sex fantasies platform OnlyFans, the report says.

Bloomberg News explored another angle of the country's economic
dilemma, the report relays.  A story bylined by Kevin Simauchi and
Ignacio Olivera Doll showed how, due to an overvalued peso versus
the US dollar, Argentines are flocking to Chile to shop for
everything from "laptops, blue jeans, underwear, towels,
frying-pans, forks, spoons, knives or . . . whatever could be
frantically pulled off store shelves," the report notes.

"For thousands of Argentines, Chile has become the new go-to
shopping centre. They're rushing over the border in unprecedented
numbers, shopping at a dizzying clip and highlighting, in the
process, an alarming development for President Javier Milei and his
aides back in Buenos Aires," the journalists write, the report
discloses.  "The peso is overvalued," he added.

This news is emerging as the public's concerns gradually shift away
from inflation, which was dominant during the last few years, to
the impact that the Milei administration's anti-inflationary policy
is having on economic activity and thus jobs, the report says.  A
poll by the San Andres University showed that poverty and low wages
are now the public's main concern, surpassing inflation for the
first time in three years, the report relays.  This poll and a
survey-of-record study conducted by the Torcuato Di Tella
University also show Milei's approval ratings declining slightly,
but still in a solid terrain close to 50%, the report says.

So far, Milei has enjoyed sharing stories about him in the
international media on his social media, the report discloses.  He
does it under the ironic hashtag "Fenomeno barrial" or "local
(neighbourhood) phenomenon," a line used by a political opponent in
the past to downplay his influence, the report notes.  Every time
he is featured abroad, as when he was placed on the cover of Time
magazine in May, Milei boasts about his global leadership status,
the report relays.

But just as the Time article by Vera Bergengruen was, behind the
glitz of the cover photo, full of criticism of his past and
present, Milei might start to notice that not all publicity or fame
is for the good, be it of himself or the country, the report
discloses.  Past the period of global novelty, Milei is beginning
to be measured by the outcome of his policies and governance on
Argentines and on investors' interests, the report notes.

If results get hard to come by, more people will start looking at
other reproachable aspects of the Milei presidency, which so far
are mostly overlooked, the report relays.  

The local office of Amnesty International sent a letter to the
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) arguing that the
President's constant attacks on individual journalists on social
media amounted to an attack on the press and freedom of expression,
the report relays.  

The 12-page letter asked the IACHR to consider recommending that
the President abstain from criminalising journalists, the report
says.  The President retorted that he is just an ordinary citizen
expressing his views, the report noted.  

He is not, says Buenos Aires Times. He will not be judged as one,
the report added.

Marcelo J. Garcia is a political analyst and Director for the
Americas for the risk consultancy Horizon Engage.

                      About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.

S&P Global Ratings, on March 15, 2024, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and
its national scale rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its
long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from
'CCC-' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The
outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P
revised its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'.

S&P said the stable outlook on the long-term ratings balances the
risks posed by pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties with the favorable change in near-term debt service
obligations. S&P also expect no further debt exchanges that it
would likely consider to be distressed.

Fitch Ratings upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.

The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).

Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings.  The outlook remains stable.  The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.

DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.



===========
B R A Z I L
===========

OI SA: 1st Round Hearing for ClientCo Sale Resumed on Aug. 6
------------------------------------------------------------
Oi SA, which is in judicial reorganization, disclosed that due to
the result of the resolution of the Creditors Restructuring Option
I and the Creditors of the 2024/2025 Reinstated Unsecured ToP Debt
- Option I regarding the proposal presented in the context of the
First Round of Sale of UPI ClientCo, as disclosed in the Material
Fact of July 30, 2024, the Judicial Reorganization Court determined
the resumption of the First Round UPI ClientCo Hearing for August
6, 2024, at 2:00 pm, for deliberation on the result of the First
Round of Sale UPI ClientCo.

The Company will keep its shareholders and the market in general
informed about the development of the matters subject to this
Notice to the Market.

Capitalized terms used and not defined in this Notice to the Market
shall have the meanings provided to such term in the form of the
Plan available for consultation on the Judicial Reorganization
website (https://www.recjud.com.br/).

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on June
3, 2024,  S&P Global Ratings raised its issuer credit ratings on
Brazilian telecom operator Oi S.A. to 'CCC-' from 'D' on the global
scale and to 'brCCC+' from 'D' on the Brazil national scale, and
placed the ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications.




===============
C O L O M B I A
===============

ECOPETROL S.A.: Discloses Partial Redemption of USD250M 2026 Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ecopetrol S.A. disclosed that, as part of its comprehensive debt
management strategy, it will redeem USD250 million of its 5.375%
Notes due 2026 (the "Notes") (CUSIP: 279158 AL3 / ISIN:
US279158AL39). The outstanding balance of the Notes is USD1.5
billion as of August 7, 2024.

The redemption date of the bonds will take place on September 5,
2024 (the "Redemption Date") at a redemption price equal to,
approximately, USD1,014.95 per USD1,000.00 principal amount
outstanding (approximately USD253,737,148.23 for USD250,000,000.00
aggregate principal amount of the Notes outstanding), plus accrued
and unpaid interest to the Redemption Date equal to USD10.30 per
USD1,000 principal amount outstanding (approximately
USD2,575,520.83 for USD250,000,000.00 aggregate principal amount of
the Notes outstanding), amounting to, approximately, USD1,025.25
per USD1,000 principal amount outstanding (approximately
USD256,312,669.06 for USD250,000,000.00 aggregate principal amount
of the Notes outstanding), to be finally calculated three business
days prior to the Redemption Date.

The redemption is in line with the objectives of the financial plan
and confirms Ecopetrol S.A.'s commitment to proactively manage the
refinancing of maturities in 2026.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Aug.
7, 2024,  Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ecopetrol S.A.'s Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB+'.
The Rating Outlook for the IDRs is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed
the company's National Long- and Short-Term ratings at
'AAA(col)'/'F1+(col)'. The Outlook for the National Long-Term
rating is Stable.



=================
G U A T E M A L A
=================

EL SALVADOR: Makes Progress in IMF Talk for Fund-Supported Program
------------------------------------------------------------------
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Raphael
Espinoza issued a statement following in person and virtual
discussions over the past months with the Salvadoran authorities.
These discussions focused on policies that could be supported by an
IMF program to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen El
Salvador's medium-term growth prospects and resilience:

"Progress has been made in the negotiations toward a Fund-supported
program, focused on policies to strengthen public finances, boost
bank reserve buffers, improve governance and transparency, and
mitigate the risks from Bitcoin.

"On the fiscal side, preliminary understandings have been reached
on improving the primary balance by around 3½ percent of GDP over
a three-year period to place public debt on sustainable path.
Consolidation is expected to be achieved through a balanced set of
measures, with initial focus on rationalizing the public wage bill,
while providing space for critical social and infrastructure
spending.

"Progress was also made on developing a plan to gradually
strengthen financial system reserve buffers in a manner consistent
with continued private sector credit and growth. This is also being
supported by efforts to reduce the government's reliance on
domestic financing through the planned consolidation and potential
support from the Fund and other multilateral development banks.

"On the structural side, preliminary understandings were reached on
a comprehensive multi-year strategy to enhance governance,
transparency, and the overall investment climate . The authorities
are well advanced in preparing legislative proposals to address
corruption, money-laundering vulnerabilities, and weaknesses in the
procurement frameworks. This work is being supported by development
partners and aims to ensure frameworks are consistent with
international best practices.

"On Bitcoin, while many of the risks have not yet materialized,
there is joint recognition that further efforts are needed to
enhance transparency and mitigate potential fiscal and financial
stability risks from the Bitcoin project. Additional discussions in
this and other key areas remain necessary.

"The Fund team looks forward to maintaining its close engagement
with the Salvadoran authorities with the objective of reaching
agreement on policies that will ensure stability and prosperity for
the benefit of all the Salvadoran people."


GUATEMALA: Risks to Outlook Remain; Economy Expected to Grow 3.5%
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
concluded the Article IV consultation with Guatemala and endorsed
the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.

The 2024 Article IV Consultation for Guatemala met the established
Executive Board criteria for lapse-of-time consideration: (i) there
are no acute or significant risks, or general policy issues
requiring Board discussion; (ii) policies or circumstances are
unlikely to have a significant regional or global impact in the
near term; and (iii) the use of Fund resources is not under
discussion or anticipated.

                      Recent Developments

Guatemala has continued to maintain its solid track record of
macroeconomic policies, with economic growth moderating to an
estimated 3.5 percent in 2023 (4.2 percent in 2022) and CPI
inflation and inflationary pressures decelerating from a 9.9
percent peak year-on-year in February 2023 to 3.6 percent in June
2024, within the monetary policy target (4 percent +/- 1 percentage
point). In the election year 2023, the central government's primary
fiscal balance closed in surplus, and the overall deficit was at
1.3 percent of GDP, below the three percent deficit approved under
the amended 2023 budget. The current account surplus widened to 3.1
percent of GDP in 2023, driven by large remittances and an improved
trade balance, despite lower exports and imports.

Risks to the outlook remain but, in the baseline scenario (assuming
higher capital spending is approved), the economy is projected to
grow by 3.5 percent in 2024 and gradually attain 3.8 percent in the
medium term. Inflation is expected to remain within the target, the
budget to close with a primary fiscal surplus in 2024, but with an
overall deficit of two percent from 2025 onwards. Guatemala needs
important and urgent investments to close gaps in infrastructure,
education, health, and social needs. With higher government
spending in the near term, the current account surplus will be
expected to narrow gradually over time, driven by large—although
decelerating—remittance inflows and strong imports and
international reserves to remain solid in the near term. However,
improvements in the business climate, governance, and legal
certainty will be essential to further attract foreign investments.
The implementation of the government's pro-growth and
anti-corruption reform agenda could boost potential growth well
above the staff's baseline scenario.

                   Executive Board Assessment

The Guatemalan economy continues to show stability and soundness
thanks to a legacy of prudent monetary and fiscal policies—with
the inflation rate on target, ample international reserves,
contained fiscal deficits, and a low public debt-to-GDP ratio.
However, in line with the country's objectives, the administration
needs to advance in the structural reform agenda to continue to
support economic growth and increase it in the medium term. The
implementation of urgent reforms in the areas of infrastructure,
human capital investment, and governance cannot wait if it is to
support the country's productive sectors and secure higher
sustained and inclusive growth. Slowing exports and limited foreign
investment underscore the urgency of reforms.

The country's outlook remains favorable, with risks skewed to the
downside. Guatemala's dependence on remittances conditions the
robustness of private consumption to the U.S. Hispanic labor market
conditions, with greater impact on the most vulnerable population.
This dependence makes Guatemala's monetary and exchange rate
policies more complex and costly. Other risks to the economy would
include a lack of progress on the economic agenda, with economic
growth below potential and the possible resurgence of social
unrest. Increased volatility in commodity prices and the scourge of
natural disasters or major cyber-attacks are other risks on the
horizon. Successful execution of the administration's structural
reform agenda could lead to higher inclusive and sustainable growth
potential.

With hefty investment needs, Guatemala will need to boost revenue
while bolstering the quantity and quality of spending. Guatemala
needs more tax collection to continue advancing on its path to
development. Important progress has been made, but tax revenues are
still among the lowest in the world, making it difficult to address
the country's pressing needs (e.g., infrastructure, education,
health, and malnutrition) without increasing the sovereign debt
substantially. Continuity in tax administration, approval of legal
protections for public officials in the fulfillment of their
mandate, and improved communication with taxpayers, are some
necessary measures to advance. However, a structural increase in
tax collection will require of a comprehensive tax reform in the
future as well as better spending. In this regard, higher spending
and temporarily larger fiscal deficits should be accompanied by a
medium-term multi-year agenda of strategic transformation projects
(in infrastructure, education, health, and social programs) for the
country, with a clear timeline for objectives, greater
transparency, efficiency, and quality of spending. It is in this
context, the country team supports temporary up-to three percent
fiscal deficits, anchored in a two percent deficit over the
medium-term. Guatemala's debt-to-GDP ratio is low and projected to
be sustainable if the administration's expansionary fiscal reform
agenda were to be approved in Congress. With domestic financing
costs on the rise, the mission recommended developing the domestic
capital market—developing the secondary debt market and yield
curve and communicating with investors.

Higher growth and absorption of capital flows into the country
requires gradual strengthening of the monetary and exchange rate
policy frameworks. Changes in the leading interest policy rate
should continue to be data-driven. At the same time, it is
important for Banguat to move forward with reforms that will
strengthen the effectiveness of the policy rate and liquidity
management by strengthening the monetary policy transmission
mechanisms and the interbank market. Under a reform fiscal policy
scenario, consistency in monetary, exchange rate, and fiscal
policies will play a particularly important role. In addition, it
is important to continue advancing in the development of FX and
hedging, debt, and financial markets that allow the private sector
to manage market risks, as well as to provide tools for climate
risk management. The mission continued to advocate for a solvent
Central Bank that capable of conducting monetary liquidity
management, maintaining price stability, and confronting future
challenges.

An inclusive and sound financial sector guided by prudential
principles should further support Guatemala's economic development
efforts. The banking sector remains liquid and profitable and shows
resilience to shocks, but close monitoring of the build-up of
vulnerabilities is warranted. The approval of the credit
regulations of the Superintendency of Banks, as well as the
follow-up on their implementation and effectiveness, is a step
forward in strengthening the sector. The approval of a new banking
law (updating the 2002 Law on Banks and Financial Groups) is also
urgently needed; it should be aligned with international standards
of regulatory, supervisory, and crisis management practices, and
provide supervisory authorities with the necessary tools to monitor
risks and vulnerabilities that could affect Guatemala's financial
system, as well as to be able to respond, if necessary. Improving
communication with the markets through the publication of risk
assessments and of bank balance sheets using international
accounting standards should also feature high on the agenda.

Advancing in the implementation of the pro-growth reform agenda
will require:

Passing sound legislation, including a good competition law that
includes investment aspects, an infrastructure and ports laws, the
revision of the Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and Free Trade
Zone laws, as well as the civil servants and procurement reforms
are essential for the economy to take off. Also, to improve legal
certainty consistent with international best practices, internal
practices, and structures in the legislation process (e.g., the
review of draft legal texts by specialized teams and the
unification of criteria in the application of legislation in court)
need to be addressed.
Improving competitiveness via an active policy in favor of the
formal labor market, greater digitalization and innovation, and a
clear gender strategy. The implementation of the goals established
in the 2024-27 financial inclusion strategy will help reduce social
gaps.

Strengthening governance with the publication of a national
anti-corruption plan and medium-term strategy to combat impunity
with a timetable for implementation and measurement indicators. The
approval of legislation aligning Guatemala's anti-money laundering
law with Financial Action Task Force (GAFI/FATF) standards cannot
wait longer, given the evaluation based on effective compliance of
the Law by 2027.

Staff recommends that the next Article IV consultation takes place
on the standard 12-month cycle.




=============
J A M A I C A
=============

CARIBBEAN CEMENT: Posts $2.35 Billion Profit for Q2
---------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that local cement manufacturer Caribbean Cement is
reporting a $2.35 billion profit for the end of its second
quarter.

This is higher than the $2.16 billion made after tax, for the
similar April to June period in 2023, according to RJR News.

While Carib Cement's earnings before tax was lower compared with
the second quarter in 2023, the company faced lower tax charges and
financial income, the report notes. This helped to counter higher
expenses, the report relays.

According to the report, the quarter's performance brought Carib
Cement's six-month earnings to $4.28 billion.
As for revenue, the company recorded a 3 per cent improvement to
$7.7 billion in its second quarter.

Carib Cement says in the current July to September quarter, it will
undertake its annual maintenance program, the report relays. It
also anticipates a fluctuation in the demand for cement, due to
prevailing weather conditions.

The company is also continuing its planned expansion program, which
will reduce its carbon footprint, and increase production capacity
by up to 30 per cent, the report adds.

                      About Caribbean Cement

Caribbean Cement Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries,
manufactures and sells cement and clinker in Jamaica and other
Caribbean countries. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is
based in Kingston, Jamaica.  

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Aug
10, 2023, Jamaica Observer said that high cost attributed to a
scheduled annual maintenance exercise done during the first
quarter
sent operational earnings and six months profit falling for cement
manufacturer Carib Cement at the end of June.  For the reporting
period, net profit, which amounted to $2.4 billion, was
approximately 20 per cent below the $3 billion earned for the
half-year mark in 2022, according to Jamaica Observer. Operating
earnings for the period also fell by about 24 per cent to total
$3.6 billion when compared to the $4.8 billion seen for last
year's period, the report noted.

In a TCRLA report on August 2021, Jamaica Observer relayed that
after enduring years of sluggish results and a mountain of debt,
Caribbean Cement has shrunk its long-term debt from $11.39 billion
in 2018 to $500 million as at June 30, 2021.  At the same time,
the
company reported $3.09 billion in net profit over the six months
which ended June 30. Its profit for all of 2020 was $3.2 billion.
The performance is coming off a challenging decade for the cement
producer which included four consecutive years of losses from 2009
to 2013.



===========
M E X I C O
===========

NEW FORTRESS: Moves to Reassure on its Fast LNG Production
----------------------------------------------------------
tradewindsnews.com reports that New Fortress Energy will finish its
commissioning and pre-production run of LNG from its offshore unit
Fast LNG off Altamira, Mexico and load a first partial cargo.

The company said that these first volumes will be loaded onto the
138,000-cbm Energos Princess (built 2003), according to
tradewindsnews.com.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Aug.
7, 2024,  S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on
New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The outlook is
stable.



===========
P A N A M A
===========

BAC INT'L: Moody's Affirms 'Ba1' LT Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings affirmed all ratings and assessments assigned to
BAC International Bank, Inc (BAC) including the Ba1/Not Prime long
and short-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings, as well
as the Baa3/Prime-3 long- and short-term foreign currency
counterparty risk ratings. At the same time, BAC's Baseline Credit
Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, both at ba1, as well as its
Baa3(cr)/Prime-3(cr) long and short-term Counterparty Risk
Assessments were affirmed. The rating outlooks on the long-term
deposits ratings remained stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The affirmation of BAC's BCA at ba1 recognizes the bank's
consistent track record of asset quality metrics, steady
profitability and stable liquidity profile over the past 5 years.
The bank's disciplined risk structure and management's deep
knowledge of the countries where it operates are a key credit
strength despite the inherent exposure to the challenging yet
diverse operating conditions in the banking systems of Central
America. BAC benefits from deep knowledge of the region and high
business and geographical diversification. Its loan portfolio is
split into 54% retail lending and 46% corporate and almost 70% of
the bank's loans are distributed across the three largest Central
American countries. Specifically, as of March 2024, the Government
of Costa Rica (B1 positive) accounts for 29% of total loans, the
Government of Panama (Baa3 stable) for 22%, and the Government of
Guatemala (Ba1 stable) for 18% of the loan portfolio.

BAC's conservative underwriting policies, business diversification
and resilient economic performance in the region have been
instrumental in preserving good asset quality metrics. Problem
loans, measured as loans classified as Stage 3 under IFRS, stood at
2.8% of gross loans in March 2024, down from 3.0% in March 2023,
supported by the effect of 14% growth in loans in the 12 month
period. Moody's expect the problem loan ratio to stabilize around
3% and loan loss reserves to remain adequate and in line with the
108% of problem loans registered in March 2024.

Additionally, the affirmation also reflects the bank's strong
profitability metrics, bolstered by its highest net interest margin
in four years, at 5.6% in March 2024, combined with robust
fee-income activities, which contributed to one third of total net
revenue. Net income to tangible banking assets ratio stood at 1.8%
in March 2024 while loan loss provisions fell to 34% of
pre-provision income as of March 2024, from the 39% average
observed between 2019 to 2023.

Capitalization benefits from BAC's robust earnings stream that
provides adequate capital replenishment to support asset growth,
maintaining good loss absorption capacity. The bank's tangible
common equity (TCE) to risk weighted assets (RWAs) ratio stood at
10.7% as of March 2024, in line with the five-year average of 10.8%
between 2019 and 2023.

The bank's large and stable customer deposit base from its
well-established and large retail franchise in Central America
mitigates risks associated with the tight financial markets that
will prevail in 2024. The bank also maintains ample liquidity
buffers, that seek to balance the absence of a lender of last
resort in some of its main markets. Core deposits accounted for 75%
of total liabilities in March 2024, supported by annual growth rate
in deposits of 12%. Liquid assets at 29% of tangible banking assets
as of March 2024 support BAC's financial flexibility.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

BAC's BCA and ratings could be upgraded if the sustained
improvements in the operating conditions of countries in Central
America where the bank operates were to be maintained or if the
bank were to face an improvement in capitalization and
profitability.

Conversely, downward pressure to the BCA could arise from
substantial and consistent strain on asset quality, leading to a
notable decrease in the bank's profitability and capitalization.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in March 2024.



=======
P E R U
=======

VOLCAN COMPANIA: Moody's Rates New $365MM Exchange Notes 'Caa1'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings assigned a Caa1 rating to Volcan Compania Minera
S.A.A. y Subsidiarias ("Volcan")'s proposed new senior secured
exchange notes for up to $365 million. The rating of the proposed
notes is also placed on review for upgrade. Volcan's other ratings,
including its Caa1 Corporate Family Rating, and the existing Caa2
rating of its Senior Unsecured Global Notes remain unchanged.

The proposed notes are offered in exchange of existing Volcan's
4.375% $365 million Senior Unsecured notes due in February 2026.
The proposed secured notes will have a higher coupon at 8.75% and
amortize in 2030. The new notes will rank pari passu with all other
secured debt of Volcan and will share the same collateral package
of the company's new term loan (unrated), including a trust over
receivables, shares of subsidiaries and mortgages over most of the
company's assets. The proposed exchange also includes a consent
solicitation to amend the 2026 senior unsecured notes indenture to
remove substantially all restrictive covenants.

The rating of the notes assumes that the final transaction
documents will not be materially different from draft legal
documentation reviewed by us to date and that these agreements are
legally valid, binding and enforceable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Volcan's ratings remain under review for upgrade. The review is
focused on 1) Volcan's ability to refinance the senior unsecured
notes due in February 2026, and 2) secure additional sources to
fund the expansion of Romina.

Pro forma for the proposed transaction and subject to the
acceptance of the exchange, Volcan's near-term liquidity would
improve, reducing its refinancing risk, with only $10 million in
debt maturing in 2025, and $20 million in 2026 related to the term
loan; in addition to any remaining senior unsecured notes,
following the exchange.

Moody's expect Volcan to generate negative free cash flow of $21
million in 2024, $100 million in 2025 and $45 million in 2026,
driven by increased interest payments and growth capex related to
Romina, which is not expected to contribute cash flows before 2026.
Therefore, Moody's believe that the company will need to incur
additional debt to fund the construction of this project with
reported leverage peaking at 3.5x in 2025. Under the company's term
loan agreement, Volcan is allowed to increase debt for $125 million
to fund Romina and $70 million for working capital purposes.

Volcan managed to sell one hydroelectric plant and it already
signed a definitive agreement to sell another plant; the company
will use these proceeds to reduce debt and boost liquidity. Other
sources of liquidity are currently limited to potential sale of
non-core assets; however, it remains unclear when these potential
transactions would be concluded.

Volcan's Caa1 CFR incorporates a material reduction of Volcan's
refinancing risk, although liquidity remains weak, given the
maturity of $365 million in senior unsecured notes in February
2026. The CFR also incorporates Volcan's high earnings volatility
because of its exposure to commodity prices coupled with high cost
structure, historically tight liquidity and aggressive financial
policies, as well as its modest scale compared with that of its
global peers.

At the same time, Volcan's Caa1 CFR reflects the company's limited
operational diversification in terms of metals produced and assets,
with seven mines located in one country.

In May 2024, Transition Metals AG, a subsidiary of the Argentine
group Integra Capital, reached an agreement with Glencore plc (Baa1
positive) to acquire its controlling stake in Volcan. Transition
Metals AG has been supportive of the liability management process
and current management team, which Moody's expect to remain in
place.

The Caa2 ratings on the senior unsecured notes, one notch below
CFR, reflects its senior unsecured nature and subordination in the
payment waterfall.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING

Positive pressure on Volcan's ratings would be subject to the
company's ability to improve its liquidity profile through the
refinancing of its $365 million in senior unsecured notes due in
February 2026, in addition to secure the funds to develop its
Romina project.

Given the review for upgrade, a downgrade of Volcan's ratings is
unlikely. However, negative pressure could occur, should the
company fail to refinance its senior unsecured notes due 2026 at
least twelve months ahead of the maturity.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Mining published
in October 2021.

Volcan Compania Minera S.A.A. y Subsidiarias (Volcan) is a Peruvian
mining company that primarily produces zinc and lead concentrate
and some copper concentrate, all with high silver content. The
company operates through five operating units including seven
operating mines, five concentrator plants and one leaching plant
for silver oxide production. All of Volcan's operations are located
in Peru, and it reported revenue of $844 million for the 12 months
that ended June 2024. Volcan is a holding company listed on the
stock exchanges of Lima, Santiago and Madrid (Latibex). Since May
2024 Transition Metals AG, subsidiary of Integra Capital, holds a
controlling stake of 55.028% in Volcan's Class A voting shares,
which is equivalent to a 23.3% economic interest in Volcan.

Integra Capital is a diversified firm with investments in
education, energy, media and telecom, mining, technology, wine,
food and drinks. Its mining business includes lithium exploration
activities in Argentina and investments in uranium and copper.



=====================================
T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
=====================================

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Analyst Warns of Energy Fallout
--------------------------------------------------
Kim Boodram at Trinidad Daily Express reports that Trinidad and
Tobago's Dragon gas deal with Venezuela could be impacted by
potential civil unrest following the recent election results in
which incumbent President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory,
socio-economic analyst Indera Sagewan has said.

As massive civilian protests built in Caracas in support of the
Venezuelan opposition, Sagewan said T&T must keep eyes on potential
unrest in that country, according to Trinidad Daily Express.

Sagewan said T&T must also pay attention to the United States
government's reaction to the Venezuela election results and the
potential for further US sanctions that could impact the crucial
energy deals with this country, the report notes.

In a telephone interview, Sagewan noted that the US and several
global leaders had expressed concern over the results giving
victory to Maduro, the report relays.

The report notes that Maduro and his political opponent both
claimed victory in the country's election, which was rife with
accusations of fraud and counting irregularities.

Maduro declared victory after approximately 80% of the votes were
counted, with his administration reporting that he secured 51% of
the vote against the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) candidate
Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who received over 44%, according to a
statement from Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE), the
report relays.

Sagewan said there was potential for "high social fallout" in
Venezuela, which would then engage the attention of that
government, the report discloses.

"We can see some serious instability," she stated.

She said while the retention of power by a Maduro government would
be "good for T&T", this country could be affected by any US
decisions that especially affect gas and oil, the report notes.

"What if the US feels very strongly about the results and decides
to step in and put down some sanctions and potentially affect us?"
Sagewan asked.

She said there was a pre-election expectation that the Venezuelan
opposition would have maintained a strong victory, the report
says.

Sagewan said the Dragon deal was "high-risk by nature because of
Venezuelan politics," the report relays.

"Every day is increasingly more uncertain," she said.

Sagewan said the world and T&T would have to "wait and see" what
develops in Venezuela, and the US's position on the final outcome,
the report notes.  She said she was "not against" the T&T
Government giving the Dragon deal it's all, but "even more effort
must be put into diversification," the report discloses.

Sagewan said this includes within the energy sector itself, as the
Dragon deal currently represented a "lifeline" for the local energy
industry, the report notes.

Stating that "we need the gas", Sagewan said there were "many
low-hanging fruit" in T&T that could be targeted for development
and diversification, the report relays.

Energy analyst Gregory McGuire said should Maduro remain in
government, "life goes on," the report relays.  He said this
maintenance of the "status quo" in Venezuela would redound to the
benefit of T&T, as negotiations would continue on the Dragon deal,
the report says.

However, McGuire also advised keeping an eye on the upcoming US
elections in November 2024, as changes in the US government could
significantly impact energy market prices and Trinidad and Tobago's
energy trade and development, the report adds.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2024.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


                  * * * End of Transmission * * *