/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/241128.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Thursday, November 28, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 239
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Economy Unexpectedly in Sept. Shrank Amid Austerity Push
ARGENTINA: Snubs G20 Summit Launch of Brazil's Anti-hunger Alliance
RAGHSA SA: Moody's Rates New Senior Unsecured Notes 'Caa2'
B R A Z I L
OI SA: Reaches Deal with Creditors to Transfer Real Estate, Towers
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
SPIRIT AIRLINES: Cayman Units Expected to Join Main Chap. 11 Case
C O L O M B I A
BARRANQUILLA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDR, Alters Outlook to Stable
OLEODUCTO CENTRAL: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
H O N D U R A S
HONDURAS: Gets $200M IDB Loan to Decarbonize Electricity Sector
HONDURAS: S&P Rates $700MM Sustainable Bond 'BB-'
S U R I N A M E
SURINAME: May Access USD61.3MM Upon Fulfillment of Fund Policies
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Economy Unexpectedly in Sept. Shrank Amid Austerity Push
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Manuela Tobias at Bloomberg News reports that Argentina's economy
unexpectedly shrank in September, as President Javier Milei fights
to restart an ailing economy amid an aggressive austerity push.
Economic activity fell 0.3 percent from August, compared with the
median estimate for 0.9 percent growth of economists surveyed by
Bloomberg. From a year ago, activity fell 3.3 percent, according to
government data published, relays Bloomberg News.
According to Bloomberg News, South America's second-biggest economy
is showing incipient signs of recovery, with wage growth outpacing
inflation for the sixth consecutive month in September and consumer
spending and manufacturing showing gains in recent months.
Inflation has been slowing consistently and monthly poverty data
Milei's team tracks closely shows poverty is shrinking from a
two-decade peak too, Bloomberg News says.
Economists surveyed by Argentina's Central Bank estimate gross
domestic product will contract 3.6 percent this year, reversed by
3.6 percent growth in 2025, Bloomberg News adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of
monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national
scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress
in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
ARGENTINA: Snubs G20 Summit Launch of Brazil's Anti-hunger Alliance
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports Argentina was the only G20 country not
to sign up to a global anti-hunger initiative set to be launched at
the opening of a G20 summit in Rio, host Brazil said.
The decision by Argentina -- led by President Javier Milei --
deepens a political gap between the nation and neighbouring Brazil,
whose left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is championing
the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, according to Buenos
Aires Times.
A total of 81 countries signed on to the flagship initiative,
including 18 of the 19 nations in the G20, but Argentina was not
among them, according to a communique, the report notes.
Its membership is "under negotiation," a source in the Brazilian
Presidency told the AFP news agency, the report relays.
The Global Alliance is an ambitious initiative pushed by Lula, a
former steel-worker, the report relates. It aims to eradicate
hunger and poverty by 2030 and reduce inequality, the report
discloses.
According to the report, Milei and Lula, whose countries share a
border, have had a tense relationship even prior to the Argentine's
election last year.
An ally of US president-elect Donald Trump, Milei has imposed
radical austerity measures in Argentina to bring down high
inflation, recounts the report. The policies sent the poverty rate
in the country soaring to 52.9 percent in the first half of this
year, 11 percentage points higher than in the previous six-month
period, the report relays.
The report further notes that Milei was the first world leader to
see Trump after the Republican's win in the US presidential
election. He attended a gala at the Republican's Mar-a-Lago Florida
estate.
The Argentine leader has several times labeled Lula a "communist"
and "corrupt," the report says.
The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty also has the support
of international organizations such as the European Union and the
African Union -- both G20 members -- as well as financial
institutions and NGOs, bringing the total number of signatories to
147, the report relays.
The initiative's goal is ambitious: to reduce world hunger, which
affected 733 million people last year -- nine percent of the global
population-- according to the UN, the report discloses.
For Lula, who grew up in poverty before a trade unionist and
eventually president of Latin America's biggest economy, the
initiative is dear to his heart, the report says.
At a national level, his left-wing policies have already lifted
millions of Brazilians out of poverty, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of
monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national
scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress
in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
RAGHSA SA: Moody's Rates New Senior Unsecured Notes 'Caa2'
----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned a Caa2 foreign currency rating to
Raghsa S.A.'s proposed senior unsecured notes due in 2032. All
other ratings remain unchanged. The outlook is stable.
Net proceeds from the proposed issuance will mainly fund the
exchange offer for Raghsa's $58.3 million 8.5% notes due May 2027.
The tender offer aims to extend debt maturity without additional
cash proceeds or increased indebtedness.
The rating of the proposed notes assumes that the final transaction
documents will not be materially different from draft legal
documentation reviewed by us to date and assume that these
agreements are legally valid, binding and enforceable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Raghsa S.A.'s (Raghsa) Caa2 ratings are mainly supported by its
high-quality assets, mainly comprised of over 95 thousand square
meters of premium offices in the City of Buenos Aires (Buenos
Aires, Caa3 stable) and a 16.1 thousand square meters luxury
residential building in the city of New York; with high occupancy
rates; a healthy tenant base. The ratings reflect Raghsa's low
leverage for the rating category compared with its high-quality
assets, which are mostly unencumbered and support its liquidity
sources.
Raghsa's rating is constrained by its smaller size than peers and
the concentration of its portfolio in three office buildings in
Buenos Aires. The rating also reflects Moody's view that the
creditworthiness of the company cannot be completely de-linked from
the credit quality of the Government of Argentina (Argentina, Ca
stable), and, therefore, the rating closely reflects the risk that
the company shares with the sovereign.
Raghsa's credit profile benefits from strong liquidity. The company
funds itself with internally generated cash, bank loans, property
sales, and note issuances. By August 2024, Raghsa held ARS103
billion ($111.8 million) in cash and marketable securities,
including $90 million held abroad (mainly US Treasury bonds), with
no significant maturities until 2027. Raghsa's near term debt
obligation include $10 million in local foreign currency bonds due
in 2026; $58.3 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2027 that
are subject to the exchange offer. The remaining balance is
composed of $56.8 million in notes due in 2030; and a 30-year
mortgage loan related to One Union Square South ($113.2 million).
As of August 2024, the company's cash and marketable securities
represented 626% of $18 million in short term debt (including
accrued interest). Like many Argentine companies, Raghsa has no
committed credit facilities.
In the proposed transaction, Raghsa offers bondholders of its
dollar-denominated senior unsecured 8.5% notes due in May 2027
(Class 4) with an outstanding amount of $58.3 million the
possibility to exchange any and all of their holdings for newly
issued dollar-denominated senior unsecured 8.5% notes due 2032
(Class 7). Raghsa's primary purpose for the exchange offer is to
extend the maturity of its outstanding financial debt. Bondholders
will receive, for each $1,000 in principal amount of existing 2027
senior unsecured notes, $1,000 in principal amount of proposed 2032
senior unsecured. As a result, Raghsa will not receive any cash
proceeds from the issuance of the proposed notes and its
indebtedness will not increase.
Raghsa's credit profile also benefits from overall solid credit
metrics for the rating category, and Moody's expect Raghsa will be
able maintain low leverage and strong cash flow from operations in
the next 12-18 months supported by significant demand for the
company's high-quality assets.
As of the last twelve months ended in August 2024, total debt to
gross assets was 21.9%, down from 25.4% as of fiscal-year end
February 2024, mainly because total debt lowered during the period
to around $259 million, from $276 million as of February 2024. The
company's loan-to-vale (LTV) of 31% for Raghsa's Argentine
investment properties as of August 2024—which are 100%
unencumbered— and the LTV of its New York City residential
building at 43%, are very solid and healthy for the rating
category.
Raghsa's stable outlook reflects Moody's view that the
creditworthiness of the company will be supported by steady revenue
and cash flow generation from the broad base of tenants, high
occupancy rates and multiple-year lease contracts. Raghsa's
creditworthiness cannot be completely de-linked from the credit
quality of Argentina, where it generates the bulk of its revenue,
and, therefore, the company's rating and outlook also incorporate
the risks that it shares with the sovereign.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
An upgrade of Raghsa would depend on an upgrade of the Government
of Argentina's rating, currently at Ca with a stable outlook. Also,
an upgrade could also be supported by growth and diversification of
operations outside Argentina.
The ratings could be downgraded (1) if the Government of
Argentina's Ca rating is downgraded; (2) reduced liquidity, coupled
with a deterioration in the company's credit metrics.
The principal methodology used in this rating was REITs and Other
Commercial Real Estate Firms published in February 2024.
Founded in 1969, Raghsa S.A. (Raghsa) is a family-owned, fully
integrated developer in Argentina. The company is engaged in the
construction, development, ownership and leasing of premium office,
commercial and residential buildings. Raghsa owns three office
buildings in the City of Buenos Aires, accounting for around 95,672
square meters (sqm) of leasable area as of August 2024. In
addition, Raghsa owns a luxury residential building in New York
City, as well as some land bank in Buenos Aires and a property in
New York City. As of August 31, 2024, Raghsa reported total assets
of ARS 1,150 billion (around $1.2 billion).
===========
B R A Z I L
===========
OI SA: Reaches Deal with Creditors to Transfer Real Estate, Towers
------------------------------------------------------------------
Dayanne Sousa of Bloomberg Law reports that Oi announced in a
filing on November 9, 2024 that it has reached an agreement to
sell and transfer a real estate and tower unit to creditor SBA
Torres Brasil.
The transfer will be executed through a payment-in-kind
arrangement, using part of the credits held by SBA against Oi.
This agreement aligns with the provisions of Oi's bankruptcy
protection plan. The transaction's completion is contingent upon
fulfilling certain conditions, including approval from the
competition defense agency.
About Oi SA
Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, and operating almost exclusively
within Brazil, the Oi Group provides services like fixed-line data
transmission and network usage for phones, internet, and cable,
Wi-Fi hot-spots in public areas, and mobile phone and data
services, and employs approximately 142,000 direct and indirect
employees.
On June 20, 2016, pursuant to Brazilian Law No. 11.101/05 (the
'Brazilian Bankruptcy Law'), Oi S.A. and certain of its
subsidiaries filed for recuperao judicial (judicial
reorganization)
in Brazil.
On June 21, 2016, OI SA and its affiliates Telemar Norte Leste
S.A. and Oi Brasil Holdings Cooperatief U.A. commenced Chapter 15
proceedings (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Lead Case No. 16-11791). Ojas N. Shah,
as foreign representative, signed the petitions.
Coop and PTIF are also subject to proceedings in the Netherlands.
The Chapter 15 cases are assigned to Judge Sean H. Lane.
In the Chapter 15 cases, the Debtors are represented by John K.
Cunningham, Esq., and Mark P. Franke, Esq., at White & Case LLP,
in New York; and Jason N. Zakia, Esq., Richard S. Kebrdle, Esq.,
and Laura L. Femino, Esq., at White & Case LLP, in Miami, Florida.
On July 22, 2016, the New York Court recognized the Brazilian
Proceedings as foreign main proceedings with respect to the
Chapter
15 Debtors, and granted certain additional related relief.
The company exited bankruptcy protection in December 2022.
===========================
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
===========================
SPIRIT AIRLINES: Cayman Units Expected to Join Main Chap. 11 Case
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Alex Wittenberg at Law360.com reports that four Spirit Airlines
subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands were expected to file for
bankruptcy protection and ask a New York federal court to join the
company's main Chapter 11 case, a move that Spirit says will help
keep the debtor on course to confirm a reorganization plan.
About Spirit Airlines
Spirit Airlines Inc. is a major United States ultra-low cost
airline headquartered in Miramar, Florida, in the Miami
metropolitan area.
Spirit Airlines Inc. sought relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S.
Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 24-11989) on November
18,
2024. In its petition, the Debtor listed estimated assets and
liabilities between $1 billion and $10 billion each.
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter on Nov. 27, 2024,
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Spirit Airlines' Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from 'CCC'. Fitch has also downgraded
Spirit IP Cayman Ltd.'s and Spirit Loyalty Cayman Ltd.'s senior
secured debt to 'CCC' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR2' from
'B-'/'RR2'.
===============
C O L O M B I A
===============
BARRANQUILLA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDR, Alters Outlook to Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Distrito Especial Industrial y Portuario
de Barranquilla's (the District) Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'. Fitch has also
affirmed Barranquilla's National Long-Term Rating at 'AA(col)'. The
Rating Outlook has been revised to Stable from Negative.
Additionally, Fitch has affirmed Barranquilla's National Short-Term
Rating at 'F1+(col)'. Barranquilla's Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP) remain at 'bb'.
Barranquilla's Outlook revision to Stable reflects Fitch's view on
the new information provided by the District confirming its
adherence to the local regulatory framework. This alleviates
uncertainty regarding potential pressures on market access and
financing costs.
The District has reprofiled 40% of its long-term debt and is
exploring options to raise COP3 trillion in new debt to finance its
2024-2027 Development Plan, mainly in international markets. To
reduce forex exposure, the District aims to denominate 100% of this
new debt in COP. Fitch will monitor the hedging or swap
alternatives defined with potential lenders and their final terms
and conditions.
The 'BB' IDRs reflect the District's 'Low Midrange' risk profile
and 'a' financial profile score in Fitch's rating scenario.
Key Rating Drivers
Risk Profile - 'Low Midrange': Fitch assesses the District's risk
profile at 'Low Midrange', reflecting a combination of key risk
factors (KRFs), with four having 'Midrange' attributes and two
assessed as 'Weaker'. These KRFs published in May 16th 2024 remain
unchanged.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Payback ratios consistently close to 9.0x, with coverage ratios
consistently below 1.2x under Fitch's rating case.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Payback ratios consistently close to 5.0x in the scenario
horizon, with a DSCR close to 2.0x;
- Favorable position with peers.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Distrito Especial
Industrial y
Portuario de
Barranquilla LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Natl LT AA(col) Affirmed AA(col)
Natl ST F1+(col) Affirmed F1+(col)
OLEODUCTO CENTRAL: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Oleoducto Central S.A.'s (OCENSA)
Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs)
at 'BB+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
OCENSA's ratings reflect the linkage with Ecopetrol S.A.'s
(BB+/Stable) credit profile, which indirectly owns 72.65% of
OCENSA. Fitch believes operational synergies and strategic ties
between the entities are important enough to create economic
incentives for Ecopetrol to effectively support OCENSA, if needed.
The ratings incorporate OCENSA's strong competitive position as the
largest and most reliable crude oil transportation company in
Colombia, giving it cost advantages over competitors. The company's
moderate exposure to volume risk and the regulated nature of the
business provide cash flow stability and minimize margin
volatility.
Key Rating Drivers
Linkage to Ecopetrol: OCENSA's ratings reflect its linkage to
Ecopetrol's credit profile, the largest crude oil producer in
Colombia and OCENSA's main off-taker. OCENSA's operations are
integral to Ecopetrol's core business due to operational synergies,
while Ecopetrol relies heavily on OCENSA's infrastructure to
transport crude oil from production fields to refineries and export
terminals. Fitch considers OCENSA strategically important for
Ecopetrol, as it transports 82% of Ecopetrol's crude oil production
in 2Q24.
Strong Competitive Position: OCENSA is the largest crude oil
transportation company in Colombia, connecting major oil basins
with the country's main crude oil export terminal and serving as a
gateway to its largest refineries. The company transports 75% of
the country's oil production and 554% of its oil exports in 2Q24.
The strategic location of its assets reduces vulnerability to
attacks, enhancing system reliability. Consistently high
utilization rates of 80% or more give OCENSA cost advantages over
its main competitors and positively affects cash flow stability.
Conservative Capital Structure: Fitch forecasts OCENSA's leverage
will remain at or below 0.5x, with no anticipated pressure on
credit metrics. The company generates strong, consistent operating
cash flow, funding capex without significant debt. Its strong cash
position enabled the acquisition of C.I. Repsol Ductos Colombia
(RDC) in July 2024 and the repurchase of 20% (USD100 million) of
its outstanding 2027 bonds in 2023, keeping leverage low. OCENSA's
only financial debt is USD400 million in seven-year senior
unsecured notes due 2027. The RDC acquisition improves OCENSA's
business profile and enhances its revenue model.
Consistent and Predictable CFO: Most of OCENSA's revenues come from
fee-based, fixed-price ship-and-pay contracts, minimizing exposure
to commodity prices. About 25% of revenue is from ship-or-pay
contracts linked to additional capacity of 145 thousand barrels per
day (kbpd). Cash flow from operations (CFO) benefits from
Ecopetrol, making up over 80% of total revenue. The stable revenue
profile provides cash flow stability and minimizes profit margin
volatility. CFO is further supported by regulated,
inflation-adjusted crude oil transportation tariffs fixed in U.S.
dollars and reviewed every four years.
Manageable Volume Risk: OCENSA is exposed to volume risk, but Fitch
believes it is manageable, based on the demonstrated resilience to
different oil price cycles. The low availability of alternative
transportation systems and the non-programmed interruptions of the
Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline system has favored OCENSA's volumes.
Transported volumes have increased to 585 kbpd during 2024 from 579
kbpd during 2023 as crude oil production keep recovering to 786
kbpd from 777 kbpd during the same period.
Derivation Summary
OCENSA's ratings compare well relative to tolling-based natural gas
peers in the region, such as Transportadora de Gas Internacional
S.A. ESP (TGI; BBB/Stable) and Transportadora de gas del Peru, S.A.
(TGP; BBB+/Stable) due to their stable and predictable cash flow
generation.
OCENSA has a stronger financial profile, with leverage of 0.3x over
the rating horizon, which offsets higher exposure to volume risk,
given its greater reliance on take-and-pay contracts relative to
peers. Fitch considers TGI and TGP to have lower business risk
resulting from a solid long-term contractual structure and low to
no exposure to commodity price or volume risk.
OCENSA's ratings remain three notches below TGP's and two notches
below TGI's, even though TGP and TGI have less conservative capital
structures. TGP has a stronger business profile, with revenue
derived from long-term ship-or-pay contracts with an average
remaining life of around nine years. TGI's average contract length
is four years, which reduces revenue visibility compared with TGP.
TGI is rated in line with its parent, Grupo Energia Bogota S.A.
E.S.P. (GEB; BBB/Stable), and maintains a strong linkage to GEB.
OCENSA's ratings reflect strong operational and strategic ties to
Ecopetrol. As a result, Fitch considers it unlikely that the
companies will have different credit profiles.
Key Assumptions
- Volumes for ship-and-pay contracts grow 1% annually over the
rating horizon;
- Volumes for ship-or-pay contracts are according to negotiated
terms with off-takers;
- Current tariffs remain valid through 2024, and then increase by
1% annually thereafter;
- Capex estimated at USD33 million in 2024, and increasing each
year, including forecast inflation;
- Dividend payout of 100% of net income.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
--An upgrade of Ecopetrol's credit ratings.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A downgrade of Ecopetrol's credit ratings;
- A weakening of the company's linkage with Ecopetrol and material
deterioration of OCENSA's capital structure.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Liquidity Not an Issue: The company's strong liquidity position is
supported by cash on hand, strong internal cash flow generation and
favorable debt maturities. OCENSA had COP451 billion of cash on
hand as of June 30, 2024. Fitch expects CFO to average COP3.7
trillion through the medium term, although a significant proportion
of the cash flow will likely be upstreamed to shareholders through
dividend distributions. Fitch expects OCENSA to generate positive
FCF in the short to medium term, given the absence of sizable
capex.
Issuer Profile
OCENSA is Colombia's largest crude oil transportation company, with
pipelines covering 836 km underground and 12 km offshore. It
connects Colombia's most prolific oil basins with its main crude
oil export terminal and is a gateway to the country's largest
refineries.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Oleoducto Central
S.A. (OCENSA) LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
===============
H O N D U R A S
===============
HONDURAS: Gets $200M IDB Loan to Decarbonize Electricity Sector
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has approved a $200
million Conditional Credit Line for Investment Projects (CCLIP) and
a first $50 million individual loan under this credit line to
support Honduras as it decarbonizes its electricity sector and
National Electric Power Company.
For the same purpose, IDB has also approved $5.1 million in
non-reimbursable financing and $2 million in non-reimbursable
investment financing from the Strategic Climate Fund, as well as a
$2.5 million grant from IDB CLIMA.
The program, which has been approved by the Board of Executive
Directors of the IDB, will directly benefit 1.9 million customers
of the Honduran National Interconnected System by giving them
access to reliable and clean electricity. It will also benefit
Afro-Honduran women, indigenous peoples, and young people in the
project's area of influence through training on building and
installing solar photovoltaic systems, as well as workshops on
gender.
The program will also strengthen the capacities of national
entities that have a hand in designing public energy policy to
mitigate and adapt to climate change, as well as to monitor and
report these initiatives.
Although Honduras has made progress on adding non-conventional
renewables to its energy mix, the country still has work to do to
meet its Nationally Determined Contributions, reduce its dependence
on fossil fuels, and become more resilient to climate change.
The credit line aims to help decarbonized the electricity sector,
give citizens better access to electricity, and improve the
sector's financial and operational sustainability, through
investments that enable a sustainable, reliable, and efficient
supply of electricity.
The first individual lending operation will support Honduras's
process of decarbonizing its power generation mix and making it
more climate resilient. It will also enhance the sector's financial
sustainability and build capacities to give Honduras the option of
issuing bonds in green capital markets so it can meet its climate
commitments.
It will therefore finance actions like developing and implementing
disaster-resilient solar farms on the grounds of the National
Electric Power Company's substations or hydroelectric power plants,
or implementing battery storage systems at substations to guarantee
a constant and efficient supply.
It will also build up the National Electric Power Company's
technical and institutional capacity to efficiently manage
electricity projects in ways that mitigate and adapt to climate
change, and to monitor and report actions and investments in the
sector.
The first individual $50 million IDB loan has two components. The
first $32.5 million tranche has a 25-year repayment term, a
5.5-year grace period, and an interest rate based on the Secured
Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The second $17.5 million tranche
of concessional resources has a 40-year repayment term and grace
period, and a 0.25% annual interest rate.
The $5.1 million in reimbursable financing from the Strategic
Climate Fund has a 30-year repayment term, a 10.5-year grace
period, and a 0.98% annual interest rate.
HONDURAS: S&P Rates $700MM Sustainable Bond 'BB-'
-------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB-' issue rating to Honduras'
sustainable bond for $700 million due 2034, with an 8.625% interest
rate.
The rating on the bond is the same as the long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating on Honduras (BB-/Negative/B). The
government will use between 91% and 97% of the net proceeds from
the issuance for eligible social projects, and it will use between
3% and 9% of the net proceeds for eligible green projects under its
sustainability financing framework.
The 'BB-' ratings on Honduras reflect the country's low per capita
GDP, weak institutions, and very limited exchange rate flexibility,
which constrains monetary policy effectiveness. On the other hand,
the country has maintained moderate fiscal deficits and debt
levels, and most of the sovereign's debt comes from official
sources.
The negative outlook incorporates the risks of potentially weaker
international reserves and external liquidity, as well as the risk
of lower economic growth prospects. It further includes its view
that the country's exchange rate and monetary rigidities could harm
its external profile and dent investor sentiment.
===============
S U R I N A M E
===============
SURINAME: May Access USD61.3MM Upon Fulfillment of Fund Policies
----------------------------------------------------------------
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Ms. Anastasia
Guscina conducted discussions with the Surinamese authorities
during October 29-November 12 on the 2024 Article IV and reached a
staff level agreement on the 8th review of the 36-month Extended
Fund Facility that was approved by the IMF's Executive Board in
December 2021.
At the conclusion of the discussions, Ms. Guscina issued the
following statement:
"The IMF team reached a staff-level agreement with the authorities
on the eighth review of Suriname's economic reform program that is
supported by the EFF arrangement. All quantitative targets for the
eighth review were met except the primary fiscal balance target.
The authorities are taking corrective actions to meet the end-year
primary balance target. Structural reforms are progressing with a
strong impetus. This staff-level agreement is subject to approval
by the IMF's Executive Board, contingent on the fulfillment of all
relevant Fund policies. Upon completion of this review, Suriname
will have access to SDR 46.7 million (about USD 61.3 million),
bringing total program disbursements to date to SDR 383.8 million
(about USD 503.8 million).
"The authorities' commitment to maintaining prudent macroeconomic
policies and difficult reforms are showing results in terms of
macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. Economic growth is
projected to reach 3 percent this year, inflation is on a steady
downward trend, donor support is increasing, investor confidence is
returning, and international reserves are increasing. The
authorities face important near-term risks, including capacity
constraints and policy implementation challenges reflecting the
increasingly difficult socio-political environment. Suriname's
medium-term outlook has improved significantly with the
announcement of the final investment decision (FID) paving the way
for offshore oil production beginning in 2028.
"The fiscal path for 2024-25 has been loosened to accommodate
unanticipated fiscal needs against the backdrop of the improving
medium-term debt dynamics arising from the FID. The end-September
primary balance target was missed because the electricity company
(EBS) transferred insufficient resources to the state budget and an
overrun on social assistance spending. The EBS has been hit hard by
the ongoing drought (forcing a switch from hydroelectric to more
expensive thermal generation) and weak bill collection. There was
also a need to help rice farmers that have lost their crops due to
the drought. The government is putting in place new fiscal rules
and the supporting institutional arrangements to enable the country
efficiently and transparently manage the upcoming oil wealth.
Broader structural reforms are necessary to increase the
efficiency, transparency, and accountability in the energy sector.
"Protecting the poor and vulnerable remains high on the agenda. The
government met the indicative target on social assistance spending
for end-September 2024. Stronger efforts are needed to address the
challenges in the execution of the social beneficiary program to
ensure the benefits reach the intended beneficiaries, particularly
in the country's interior regions. The authorities should promptly
implement the recently completed strategic plan to enhance the
effectiveness of social protection with the support of development
partners.
"Excellent progress has been made with debt restructuring.
Agreements have been reached with all official and most commercial
creditors and negotiations with the remaining commercial creditors
are ongoing. An umbrella agreement with the Paris Club for the
second phase of the debt treatment was signed in October and
negotiations with individual creditors are ongoing. Domestic debt
arrears have been repaid and Suriname should be ready to re-access
domestic debt market in the second half of 2025. The authorities
are strengthening commitment controls to prevent accumulation of
supplier arrears.
"The continued restrictive monetary policy stance has further
reduced inflation. The Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS) is
monitoring monetary developments and will continue to diligently
implement open market operations to maintain the reserve money path
consistent with the program targets. The CBvS remains committed to
a flexible, market-determined exchange rate and is working to
improve the functioning of the foreign exchange market, including
through the launching of an electronic foreign exchange trading
platform.
"Vulnerabilities in the banking system are being addressed. Timely
completion of recapitalization plans of banks with capital
shortages, and prudent monitoring of capital adequacy, liquidity
and asset quality of banks are essential to preserve stability in
the banking sector. The CBvS also needs to increase its monitoring
of non-bank financial institutions, particularly with respect to
their interconnectedness with the banking system.
"The authorities need to push ahead with their ambitious structural
reform agenda to strengthen institutions and governance. A strong
CBvS balance sheet is crucial for operational independence and the
robust implementation of monetary policy. The central bank
recapitalization plan, as required by the Central Bank Act, should
be implemented as planned. Looking ahead, it is also important to
push ahead with the broader governance reforms in anti-money
laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT),
anti-corruption, and public sector procurement to prepare the
country for the oil wealth.
"The mission would like to thank the authorities for a
collaborative and fruitful dialogue. Meetings were held with the
President and Vice President of the Republic of Suriname, the
Minister of Finance and Planning, the Minister of Agriculture, the
Minister of Justice and Police, the Minister of Internal Affairs,
the Minister of Labor, the Minister of Transport, Communications
and Tourism, the Central Bank Governor, the leadership and the
finance committee of the National Assembly, other senior government
officials, civil society organizations, women leaders,
representatives of the private sector, and development partners.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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