/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/241204.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Wednesday, December 4, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 243
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: ETF Sees Record Inflows as Traders Buy Milei's Efforts
ARGENTINA: Milei to Propose Changes to Mercosur Trade Bloc's Rules
B R A Z I L
BRAZIL: Investors Downgrade Exposure as Fiscal Credibility Erodes
PETROBRAS SA: To Reenter Ethanol Market w/ $2.2BB Investment
E L S A L V A D O R
BANCO DE DESARROLLO: Moody's Hikes Long Term Issuer Rating to B3
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: BOJ Accepts Bids for $15 Billion Certificate of Deposit
JAMAICA: Chamber of Commerce Backs BOJ on Rate Adjustment Urgency
P A N A M A
PANAMA INFRASTRUCTURE: S&P Cuts Series 2024-2 Notes Rating to 'BB+'
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: ETF Sees Record Inflows as Traders Buy Milei's Efforts
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Kevin Simauchi & Leda Alvim at Bloomberg News report that an
exchange-traded fund tracking Argentine stocks saw record inflows
as Wall Street embraces President Javier Milei's efforts to quell
inflation and reverse years of endemic budget deficits.
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF, known by its ticker ARGT, absorbed
US$144 million of inflows for the week that ended on November 22,
with US$88 million coming in on Friday (Nov. 22) alone, according
to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The fund, which is a vehicle for traders to pile into equity bets
on a country where access to local markets is complicated by
capital controls, saw assets jump roughly seven-fold from US$104
million when Milei took office to some US$750 million, according to
Bloomberg News.
"Milei hasn't just talked the talk, but is actually walking the
walk," said Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X
Management, the firm that manages ARGT, Bloomberg News discloses.
"He has trade balances, he has built a fiscal surplus, inflation is
ticking down, and economic activity is picking up."
The inflows come against encouraging signs for South America's
second-largest economy, with month-over-month inflation shrinking
to 2.7 percent in October, gains in real wages and some US$20
billion rushing into the country thanks to a tax amnesty program,
Bloomberg News relays. For the rally to continue, investors argue,
the libertarian needs to deliver on nixing a spate of capital
controls without stoking jumps in consumer prices and a peso
sell-off, Bloomberg News says.
"The news from Argentina continues to impress with inflation down
sharply. The next big hurdle will be removing capital controls,"
said Greg Lesko, managing director at Deltec Asset Management LLC
in New York, Bloomberg News notes. "If they are able to remove
capital control and you don't see big outflows, that would be a
sign of confidence in the program."
Economy Minister Luis Caputo said the government will eliminate
currency and capital controls, known locally as the "cepo," in
2025, Bloomberg News relays. While Caputo didn't offer more
details on the timeline for the plans, he said that the country
will slow the monthly pace at which officials let the peso slide
should inflation stay at current levels or show signs of further
cooling, Bloomberg News notes.
Keeping the currency rules as-is, the argument goes, may prolong
the country's economic slump, stall talks for an IMF programme with
fresh cash, hamper efforts to lure more dollars into the country
and thwart the government's plans to re-enter capital markets by
2025, Bloomberg News discloses.
False Dawn
It also remains to be seen whether Milei's incipient recovery isn't
another one of Argentina's many false dawns, Bloomberg News says.
Money rushed to the country during an earlier turn to
market-friendly policies, only to leave when pro-business president
Mauricio Macri lost to the statist Peronist party in a 2019 vote,
Bloomberg News notes.
To be sure, the fund's inflows are not wholly explained by
country-specific bullishness, Bloomberg News discloses.
Argentina-founded MercadoLibre Inc., which makes up 17 percent of
the ARGT's holdings, makes a majority of its revenue outside the
country today while Milei's peso devaluation in December hit sales
in Argentina for the first half of the year, Bloomberg News notes.
In terms of a broader equity market outlook, Morgan Stanley
recently reinforced its overweight rating for Argentina's stock
market, noting that policymakers have delivered on a fiscal
adjustment and deregulation campaign that's beat expectations,
Bloomberg News says.
"Argentina could potentially represent the canary in the coal mine,
and will be watched closely across the Andean region," Morgan
Stanley strategists including Nikolaj Lippmann wrote in a November
17 note, Bloomberg News discloses. "Argentina policymakers have
made extraordinary progress in 2024, with a fiscal adjustment and
de-regulation efforts that have surpassed expectations," he added.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of
monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national
scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress
in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
ARGENTINA: Milei to Propose Changes to Mercosur Trade Bloc's Rules
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Sofia Rojas at Noticias Argentinas reports that President Javier
Milei is evaluating Argentina's future relationship with Mercosur
and at the summit in Montevideo, will propose a flexibilisation of
the trade bloc's rules.
Milei will propose the elimination of existing rules that do not
allow free-trade agreements to be negotiated with third parties
without the prior approval of Mercosur members -- a longstanding
desire of Uruguay President Luis Lacalle Pou, according to Noticias
Argentinas.
Government sources refuse to not rule out the possibility of
breaking with the bloc if they are not listened to, the report
notes.
The Milei administration considers that "Mercosur does not function
as it was created to" and believes that "under these [existing]
conditions, it is no good for Argentina" to be part of it, said the
sources, the report relays.
The La Libertad Avanza government's preference is to be able to
draw up bilateral free-trade agreements without the need to request
permission from the rest of the member countries beforehand, the
report relays. Officials even fantasise about establishing a
common free-trade market that is "not just for industrialists in
Sao Paulo," the report discloses.
"The idea is to draw up free-trade agreements between the countries
that make up the bloc and with the world," a top government source
told the Noticias Argentinas news agency, the report says.
Officials are keen to clarify that plan A is not to leave the
customs union, though such an eventuality is not ruled out if
Argentina's requests are not met, the report notes. The current
state of affairs is considered to be a limitation for the normal
economic development of the countries, the report relays.
In addition to Argentina, Mercosur also includes Brazil, Paraguay,
Uruguay and most recently Bolivia. Venezuela was suspended from the
bloc in 2016, recounts the report. Chile, Colombia, Ecuador,
Guyana, Peru and Suriname are associated states.
The political hues of the region's current government do not
encourage optimism in the La Libertad Avanza government, which
lacks major allies to support the proposal, the report notes.
Paraguay is a potential supporter, though the longstanding position
of Uruguay may change given the election of Yamandu Orsi, the
report discloses.
President Milei will present his proposal on December 6 in
Montevideo at the upcoming Mercosur Leaders Summit.
His presidential spokesman, Manuel Adorni, anticipated the
government will insist on closing the long-stalled agreement
between the European Union and the Latin American bloc, which today
is in danger due to pushback from France and Poland, the report
says.
"We will always be in agreement with everything related to trade
agreements. Whether it is the European Union-Mercosur [deal] or a
free-trade agreement with the United States," said the official.
"We are going to promote it within the difficulties that Mercosur
has with its structure and regulations," the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of
monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national
scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress
in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: Investors Downgrade Exposure as Fiscal Credibility Erodes
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Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that Brazil's economic
landscape faces a critical juncture as fiscal credibility erodes.
The government's recent announcements have sent shockwaves through
financial markets, according to Rio Times Online.
International investors are reassessing their positions in
Brazilian assets, notes the report. Julius Baer, a Swiss bank,
downgraded its exposure to Brazilian stocks on November 29, 2024,
the report relays.
Other international banks as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also
downgraded their recommendations on Brazilian stocks, citing
growing fiscal risks and the prospect of higher interest rates, the
report says.
The Finance Ministry unveiled a spending cut plan aimed at saving
BRL71.9 ($12) billion by 2026, the report discloses. However, this
move was overshadowed by a proposal to exempt lower-income workers
from taxes.
The tax exemption would affect nearly 80% of taxpayers, costing an
estimated BRL35 billion annually, the report discloses. Market
reaction was swift and negative, the report notes. The Brazilian
real plummeted to a historic low of BRL6 against the US dollar, the
report says.
Future interest rates surged, with expectations of the Selic rate
climbing to 14.50% by mid-2025, the report relays. These
developments highlight the delicate balance between fiscal
responsibility and social welfare, the report discloses.
Investors worry about the government's commitment to fiscal
consolidation, the report relays. The spending cut plan failed to
convince markets of a significant fiscal tightening, the report
says.
Legislative uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to the
situation, the report notes. With only three weeks left in the
legislative year, concerns about potential dilution of proposed
measures loom large, the report discloses.
Brazil's Economic Performance
Rio Times Online relates that Brazil's economy has shown resilience
despite these challenges. Real GDP grew by an impressive 5.9%
between the first and second quarters of 2024. Consumer spending
and business investment remained strong.
The economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, surpassing
earlier forecasts, the report relays. Employment figures paint a
mixed picture. Formal employment grew by 18.6% in 2024, despite a
slight decline in October, the report discloses.
Brazilian industry confidence hit a two-year high, signaling robust
industrial activity, the report notes. These positive indicators
contrast sharply with the current fiscal concerns, the report
relays.
The global economic context adds another dimension to Brazil's
challenges, the report says. Investors are closely monitoring
developments in major economies like the United States and China,
the report discloses.
These external factors could significantly impact Brazil's economic
trajectory, the report notes. As Brazil approaches its next
presidential election in 2026, fiscal concerns are likely to
persist, the report relays.
The government faces the difficult task of balancing fiscal
responsibility with social needs, the report discloses. This
balancing act will shape Brazil's economic future and its
attractiveness to international investors, the report adds.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
In October 2024, Moody's Ratings has upgraded the Government of
Brazil's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to
Ba1 from Ba2, the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba1 from
(P)Ba2; and maintained the positive outlook.
S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. Fitch Ratings
affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook.
DBRS' credit rating for Brazil was last reported at BB with
stable outlook at July 2023.
PETROBRAS SA: To Reenter Ethanol Market w/ $2.2BB Investment
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Rio Times Online reports that Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil
giant, has announced its intention to reenter the ethanol market.
The company plans to do so primarily through minority partnerships
or shared control agreements with key industry players, according
to the report.
This strategic move comes as part of Petrobras' 2050 strategic plan
and 2025-2029 business plan, the report notes.
The company's decision reflects a broader shift in Brazil's energy
landscape, the report relays. Petrobras anticipates a decline in
the market share of pure gasoline in the coming years. By entering
the ethanol market, the oil giant aims to maintain its dominant
position in the fuel sector, the report discloses.
Petrobras has earmarked $2.2 billion for investments over the next
five years, the report says. This substantial sum underscores the
company's commitment to diversifying its portfolio The move into
ethanol production is seen as a pragmatic approach to energy
transition, the report relays.
Mauricio Tolmasquim, Petrobras' director of energy transition and
sustainability, explained the strategy, the report discloses. He
stated, "We want to remain big. How do we do that with the loss of
the gasoline market? By entering our competitor's market, which is
ethanol."
The company's reentry into ethanol production is not without
precedent, the report relays. Petrobras was active in this sector
from the 1970s until the mid-2010s. This historical experience may
prove valuable as the company navigates its return to the market,
the report says.
According to the report, Petrobras has begun exploring potential
partnerships in the ethanol sector. The company acknowledges that
building from scratch would be a lengthy process. Therefore,
collaborating with established producers appears to be the most
efficient path forward, the report notes.
Petrobras emphasizes that its core focus remains oil and gas
exploration, the report says. However, the company is clearly
preparing for the energy transition, the report discloses. Its
strategy includes investments in biofuels, petrochemicals, and
fertilizers, as well as processes with lower emissions, the report
notes.
The company's approach to reentering the ethanol market appears
measured and strategic, the report says. By seeking minority
partnerships or shared control, Petrobras aims to leverage existing
expertise in the sector while maintaining its own strategic
flexibility, the report notes.
This move by Petrobras reflects a broader trend in the energy
sector towards diversification and sustainability, the report
relays. As the global energy landscape evolves, companies like
Petrobras are adapting their strategies to remain competitive and
relevant, the report notes.
The success of this venture will depend on various factors,
including market dynamics and the outcome of partnership
negotiations, notes the report. Petrobras has stated that its
entry into ethanol businesses will be subject to these
considerations, as well as applicable corporate procedures and
approvals, the report adds.
About Petrobras
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. or Petrobras (in English,
BrazilianPetroleum Corporation - Petrobras) is a semi-public
Brazilian multinational corporation in the petroleum industry
headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Petrobras control
significant oil and energy assets in 16 countries in Africa, the
Americas, Europe andAsia. But, Brazil represents majority of its
production.
The Brazilian government directly owns 54% of Petrobras' common
shares with voting rights, while the Brazilian Development Bankand
Brazil's Sovereign Wealth Fund (Fundo Soberano) each control5%,
bringing the State's direct and indirect ownership to 64%.
A corruption scandal was uncovered in 2014 that involved
Petrobras.
The scandal related to money laundering that involved Petrobras
executives. The executives were alleged to get received kickbacks
from overpriced contracts, to the tune of about $3 billion in
total. Over a thousand warrants were issued against politicians
and businessmen in relation to the scandal. In 2016, Marcelo
Odebrecht, CEO of Odebrecht, was sentenced to 19 years in prison
after being convicted of paying more than $30 million in bribes to
Petrobras executives.
In January 2018, Petrobras agreed to pay $2.95 billion to settle
aU.S. class action corruption lawsuit. In September 2018,
Petrobras agreed to pay $853.2 million to settle with Brazilian and
U.S. authorities.
On October 10, 2024, Moody's Ratings affirmed Petrobras' Ba1
corporate family rating. At the same time, Moody's affirmed
Petrobras' ba1 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and the Ba1 rating
of the backed senior unsecured debt issuances of Petrobras Global
Finance B.V. and Petrobras International Finance Company. The
outlook for all ratings changed to positive from stable. The
actions follow the upgrade of Government of Brazil's (Brazil)
long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to Ba1 from Ba2,
senior unsecured shelf rating at (P)Ba1 from (P)Ba2 and maintenance
of the positive outlook.
In January 2024, S&P Global Ratings assigned a new management &
governance (M&G) assessment of moderately negative to Brazil-based
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras. At the same time, S&P has
affirmed its issuer credit ratings on Petrobras at 'BB' on the
global scale and 'brAAA' on the Brazilian national scale. S&P has
also affirmed its issue-level ratings on the company, and removed
all its ratings from under criteria observation (UCO).
In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Petrobras' BB- Long-TermIssuer
Default Rating. In addition, Fitch has revised the RatingOutlook to
Stable from Negative following a similar revision toBrazil's
Sovereign Rating Outlook. Also in July 2022, Egan-JonesRatings
Company upgraded the foreign currency and local currency senior
unsecured ratings on debt issued by Petrobras to BB+ from BB.
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E L S A L V A D O R
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BANCO DE DESARROLLO: Moody's Hikes Long Term Issuer Rating to B3
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Moody's Ratings has upgraded Banco de Desarrollo de El Salvador's
("Bandesal" or "the bank") foreign currency long-term issuer rating
to B3, from Caa1, and its baseline credit assessment (BCA) and
adjusted BCA to b3, from caa1. The bank's long-term counterparty
risk rating and counterparty risk assessment were also upgraded to
B2 and B2(cr), from B3 and B3(cr), respectively. At the same time,
the short-term counterparty risk rating and counterparty risk
assessment were affirmed at Not Prime and Not Prime(cr),
respectively. The outlook of the long-term issuer rating remains
stable.
The rating action follows the upgrade of Government of El
Salvador's (El Salvador) sovereign bond rating to B3, from Caa1
with stable outlook.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Bandesal's B3 issuer rating is constrained by the Government of El
Salvador's sovereign rating, reflecting Moody's view that as a
state-owned bank, Bandesal's creditworthiness is intrinsically
interlinked with that of the government. These interlinkages are
mainly related to the impact of the sovereign credit profile on the
bank's operating and funding structure. As a government-owned
development institution, Bandesal has a public mandate fully
aligned to the government's economic and social development agenda
with a funding limitation to multilaterals resources. Moreover, the
bank oversees two development funds that are kept
off-balance-sheet.
The upgrade of Bandesal's BCA to b3 acknowledges the bank's strong
capitalization, its key credit strength, with tangible common
equity (TCE) accounting to 42.5% of risk weighted assets (RWAs) in
September 2024, providing a sizeable buffer to absorb losses and
support loan growth. Since 2021, the bank has been increasing its
direct lending operation to small and medium sized businesses. At
the same time, Bandesal continues to provide funding to financial
institutions, which, as of September 2024, accounted for 69% of
total loans. Over the past 12 months ended in September 2024,
credit expanded 6.1%, close to its growth rate in 2023, led by
direct lending activities. This strategy has significantly impacted
its asset risk profile, with NPLs increasing to 4.3% as of
September 2024, from a track record of very low levels below 1%.
Despite the bank shifts towards a riskier asset mix, the loan loss
reserve coverage reduced to 80% of problem loans in September 2024,
which limits the buffer against unexpected losses.
In terms of profitability, net income to tangible assets increased
to 1.6% in September 2024 from 1.2% in September 2023, supported by
its expansion into higher-yielding loans. Net interest margins also
reflected that strategic approach, and increased to 3.6% in
September 2024, from 2.9% one year prior. Moody's expect the easing
funding costs to remain a positive factor for Bandesal's
performance in 2025, although Moody's anticipate higher loan loss
provisions as the bank continues to pursue the growth of its direct
lending portfolio. As a non-deposit taking institution, the bank
has been able to increase funding diversification with multilateral
organizations, which somewhat mitigates refinancing and interest
rate risks.
MACRO PROFILE OF EL SALVADOR CHANGED TO WEAK-
The improvement of El Salvador's Macro Profile to Weak-, from Very
Weak+, indicates a positive shift in the country's assessment of
vulnerability to event risks, linked to a structural improvement in
the government's financial requirements. Additionally, the Macro
Profile acknowledges a slight enhancement in El Salvador's economic
conditions, primarily attributed to enhancements in the security
landscape. These improvements are anticipated to gradually increase
both local and foreign investment, as well as benefit the tourism
sector, which can benefit banking business volumes in 2025. This
progress could lead to greater diversification in an economy that
has seen consistently low growth rates, with an average annual
growth of 2.5% from 2018 to 2023, and remains significantly
dependent on the US for both exports and remittances.
Credit penetration in El Salvador has consistently stayed at
approximately 62% of GDP, surpassing the Central American average
of around 49% in 2023. Loan growth has accelerated to 7.4% in
September 2024, from 3.8% in 2023, largely driven by corporate
lending, indicative of stronger business confidence. Banks are
mostly deposit-funded, showing low reliance on more volatile market
funds, and maintain good liquidity buffers that help compensate for
the lack of a central bank acting as a lender of last resort. The
banking system is largely foreign-owned with a moderate degree of
concentration.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The B3 issuer rating assigned to Bandesal is positioned at the same
level of the sovereign bond rating. The bank's rating could be
upgraded if El Salvador's sovereign bond rating was upgraded,
provided that the bank's financial profile remained sound and asset
quality stabilizes.
Conversely, the downward pressure on the bank's ratings would also
arise from a downgrade of the sovereign rating. On a standalone
basis, its BCA of b3 could be impacted by a fast deterioration in
asset quality metrics as the bank continues to move towards direct
lending strategy, or if its profitability deteriorates materially.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2024.
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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: BOJ Accepts Bids for $15 Billion Certificate of Deposit
----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that the Bank of Jamaica opened applications for a
$15 billion 6.75% per annum certificate of deposit.
Some 241 bids were received totalling $27.41 billion, according to
RJR News.
But only 149 bids valued at $15 billion were approved, the report
notes. The average yield for the successful bids was 6.7% per
annum, the report relays.
The lowest bid was 6% for $2 billion, while the highest bid rate
was 10% for $400 million, the report says.
Treasury Bill
Meanwhile, the central bank will float a 182-day $700 million
treasury bill today, December 4, notes the report. The settlement
date will be December 6.
The yield and price of the instrument will be determined through
competitive bidding and the maturity date is June 6, 2025, th
report discloses.
The bank said $5,000 is the minimum subscription and the interest
paid on the instrument is taxable at 25%, the report relays.
Interest will be paid at maturity and it can be bought through the
various securities brokers, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-'
from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In
September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica
and revised outlook to positive.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
JAMAICA: Chamber of Commerce Backs BOJ on Rate Adjustment Urgency
-----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica Chamber of Commerce says it supports
the BOJ governor's call for timely transmission of policy rate
changes and is calling for a review of monetary policy mechanisms.
It said it fully endorses statements by the Governor of the Bank of
Jamaica regarding the critical role the commercial banking sector
must play in ensuring adjustments in the BOJ's policy rates are
promptly passed onto borrowers, according to RJR News.
The Chamber believes the transmission of monetary policy into the
real economy is essential for the effective functioning of the
BOJ's inflation targeting system, the report notes.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-'
from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In
September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica
and revised outlook to positive.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
===========
P A N A M A
===========
PANAMA INFRASTRUCTURE: S&P Cuts Series 2024-2 Notes Rating to 'BB+'
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on Panama Infrastructure
Receivable Purchaser PLC's senior secured notes series 2024-2 to
'BB+' from 'BBB-'.
Panama Infrastructure Receivable Purchaser PLC, a special-purpose
vehicle incorporated under the laws of England and Wales, issued
144A/Reg S senior secured notes series 2024-2 for a principal
amount up to U.S. $1,428 million under New York State law. The
notes are backed by Informes de Progreso de Trabajo (IPT)
receivables issued by Panama's Ministry of Public Works and payable
through the Ministry of Finance's Treasury Department as
compensation for the construction of the fourth bridge over the
Panama Canal.
The rating action follows a similar action taken on its long-term
sovereign foreign currency rating on Panama to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'.
S&P said, "The downgrade on this rating reflects our opinion on the
credit quality of the underlying assets backing the transaction,
which we continue to rank one notch below than Panama's foreign
currency rating. In our view, the IPTs' credit quality is one notch
below the foreign currency rating on Panama, given that the IPTs
are subject to budgetary allocation; they do not constitute public
indebtedness, and there are no cross-default mechanisms with
Panama's sovereign unsecured debt. In addition, our view of the
IPTs' credit quality also reflects the project's key importance for
the government and its commitment to it, as well as Panama's own
credit strengths."
Rating Lowered
Panama Infrastructure Receivable Purchaser PLC
Series 2024-2 to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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