/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/250107.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Tuesday, January 7, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 5
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Milei Extends 2023 Budget for Second Year Running
YPF SA: Fitch Assigns 'CCC' Rating to New Senior Unsecured Bonds
YPF SA: S&P Puts 'CCC' Rating to New Sr. Unsecured Amortizing Notes
B R A Z I L
BRAZIL: Fights for Stability Amid Growth Surge and Soaring Deficits
HIDROVIAS DO BRASIL: Fitch Puts 'BB-' LongTerm IDR on Watch Neg.
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: BOJ Seeks to Raise $2.2 Billion With Treasury Bills
JAMAICA: Economy Down 3.5% in Real Value Added for Third Quarter
JAMAICA: Retailers Report Dent in Christmas and New Year Sales
M E X I C O
VINTE VIVIENDAS: S&P Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Positive
P U E R T O R I C O
PUERTO RICO: PREPA Bondholders Defend Rights Amid Bankruptcy
U R U G U A Y
URUGUAY: Inflation Hits 5.49% in 2024, Stays Within Target Range
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Milei Extends 2023 Budget for Second Year Running
------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that seeking to overcome congressional
difficulties and end a dispute between the Casa Rosada and
Argentina's 23 provincial governments, President Javier Milei has
announced that the nation will spend a second consecutive year
without a fresh budget bill.
Via Decree 1131/2024 published in the Official Gazette, Milei
extended Argentina's 2023 budget for a second straight year -- an
unprecedented move in national politics, according to Buenos Aires
Times.
The decision aligns with his strict fiscal adjustment plan,
austerity cutbacks and ongoing negotiations with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the report notes.
"It is appropriate to extend the resources, financial sources and
credits in effect at the close of fiscal year 2024," stated Milei's
decree, published on Monday, Dec. 30, the report relays.
The decision comes in the context of an accumulated inflation rate
of 628 percent between November 2022, when the last budget bill was
passed, and November 2024, according to official data, the report
discloses.
Last September, Milei had presented a proposed budget bill to
Congress, which projected an annual inflation rate of 18.5 percent
and five percent for 2025, recalls the report.
However, the law failed to gain approval in Congress, the report
notes. The opposition's proposed amendments, such as increased
funding for pensions and universities, ran into presidential vetoes
upheld in Congress by Milei's ruling La Libertad Avanza party and
its allies, which argued that they would undermine the government's
plan to achieve a fiscal surplus, the report relays.
"If passing the law means risking or sacrificing our fiscal anchor,
the most important aspect of our model, it's not worth it," said
Economy Minister Luis Caputo in early December during an interview
with the LN+ channel, the report notes.
Beforehand Caputo had flatly rejected a series of demands by the
provincial governments which included paying off provincial pension
fund debt and submitting fuel taxation to federal revenue-sharing
-- demands which the government quantified as US$3.7 billion, the
report discloses.
Nevertheless, if the provincial governors had dropped these demands
and accepted the original draft Budget, Milei would've be open to
submitting it to Congress in February while keeping a decreed
renewal of the 2023 Budget up his sleeve, government sources said
-- a solution which would not be considered optimal by either the
provinces or the IMF, the report relays.
Critics say the government is undermining transparency as the
decree grants the Executive branch discretion to manage the state's
accounts, rather than Congress, the report notes.
In a statement, ASAP (the Asociacion Argentina de Presupuesto y
Administracion Financiera Publica or the Argentine Association of
Budget and Public Financial Administration) noted that this is the
first time two consecutive budget extensions have occurred, the
report relays.
In a press release, ASAP described this situation as "a setback in
the institutional framework of the National Public Sector," the
report discloses.
Opposition legislators also criticised the unilateral extension,
claiming that the government never truly sought the passage of its
2025 Budget or its serious debate, omitting it from this summer's
extraordinary sessions in Congress, the report says.
"Milei deliberately stalled sessions and blocked agreements to
ensure the Budget [bill] wasn't approved so he could spend as he
pleased, like a petty monarch," wrote national deputy Margarita
Stolbizer, a government critic, in a post on the X social network,
the report relays.
Pro-government deputy Jose Luis Espert snapped back: "There will be
a new law when politics accepts three things at the same time: zero
deficit, reduced public spending and no tax increases," the report
notes.
Buenos Aires Times says that the budget extension comes as
Argentina seeks a new financing deal with the IMF to replace its
existing US$44.5-billion loan agreement.
Milei's government is optimistic it can seal a new deal with the
IMF quickly, emboldened by the electoral victory of incoming US
president Donald Trump, the report discloses.
The Republican leader has voiced his support for Milei and his
government but Trump appointed Mauricio Claver-Carone, the former
head of the Inter-American Development Bank (BID in its Spanish
acronym) until his ouster in 2022, to oversee Latin American
affairs at the US State Department, the report relays.
Claver-Carone has been critical of Milei. "The strategy of buying
time while expecting Trump to secure more IMF funding is an
illusion, illogical, and bound to fail," he said in a July
interview with Uruguayan news outlet El Observador, the report
notes.
Government Extends Prohibition State Media Advertising
A government resolution has extended for a further year the
suspension of state advertising campaigns in media which "cost
money" by either the national public administration or Banco
Nacion, the report relays.
Signed by Presidential Spokesperson Manuel Adorni, the government
resolution prolongs the prohibition of state advertising, a measure
in line with the fiscal austerity policies of the Milei
administration, the report discloses.
Resolution 7147/2024 recalls that Decree 89/23 suspended state
advertising "with the double objective of streamlining the
structures and procedures of the national administration and making
public spending criteria more efficient, given the country's
circumstances at the time that decree was finished," the report
says.
At that time priority was given to "the criteria of austerity and
efficiency in the use of the scarce public funds when assigning
priorities," the report notes.
Congress approved the 'Ley de Bases y Puntos de Partida para la
Libertad de los Argentinos' omnibus bill declaring a public
administrative, economic, financial and energy emergency for the
period of a year, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of
monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national
scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress
in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency
Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC on November 25, 2024. The
trend on all ratings is Stable.
YPF SA: Fitch Assigns 'CCC' Rating to New Senior Unsecured Bonds
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Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'CCC' rating with a Recovery Rating of
'RR4' to YPF S.A.'s (YPF) proposed benchmark-size unsecured bonds.
The proceeds of the notes will be used to prepay existing debt and
for general corporate purposes. Fitch currently rates YPF's
Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
'CCC'.
YPF's ratings are in line with Fitch's "Government Related Entities
Criteria". The company is majority owned by the government of
Argentina and strategically important to the country. YPF's
dominant market share in the supply of liquid fuels in Argentina,
coupled with its large hydrocarbon production footprint in the
country, could expose the company to government intervention
through pricing policies or investment strategies.
Key Rating Drivers
Links to Sovereign: YPF linkage to the Argentine Republic reflects
ownership structure, government oversight, history of support, and
significance of the company in executing government policy role.
Argentina controls the company through its 51% stake, and
provincial government officials serve on the company's board of
director. According to Fitch's assessment of the "Government
Related Entities Criteria", incentives to support and contagion
risks are high, leading to the equalization of the ratings.
YPF's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) is in the 'b' category,
reflecting the issuer's production cost profile, which is above
average compared with peers in the region, and its inability to
diversify its operations outside of Argentina.
Key Producer in Volatile Operating Environment: YPF is the market
leader in the country with over 50% of market share for refined
products. The company's strong market position and branding give it
the ability to adapt to market volatility. YPF's dominating
participation along the value chain of fuels, combined with the
largest acreage under license for production of crude and gas,
position the company to benefit from current efforts to shift
Argentina from a net importer to a net exporter of hydrocarbons in
a challenging macro-economic environment.
Stable Production and High-Cost Profile: Fitch's rating case
assumes production will average 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent
per day (boed) over the rating horizon. Fitch estimates YPF's 2023
half-cycle and full-cycle costs at USD36.87 of USD57.34 per boe,
which is above-average for players in the region, and could see a
decline in the coming years as the company divest its conventional
mature fields. The company's high cost was mostly attributed to
higher-than-average lifting cost of USD15.40/boe (USD4.0/boe for
shale oil production). The company's full-cycle break-even implied
prices were below-weighted-average realization prices for oil and
gas.
Financial Metrics Strengthen: YPF has maintained a moderate
leverage profile. Fitch estimates YPF's total debt/EBITDA will be
1.3x in 2024 compared with 1.8x in 2023 and will average less than
1.0x over the rated horizon. YPF's reported 1,072 mmboe of 1P
reserves in 2023, translating into total debt to 1P of reserves of
USD7.64/boed. Fitch estimates USD8.22/boe for 2024 based on 1P
reserves as reported in 2023. The company's leverage profile has
been stable, but is challenged by a limited pool and high cost of
capital given the macroeconomic environment in Argentina.
Derivation Summary
YPF's linkage to the sovereign is similar in nature to its Latin
American national oil company peers, namely Petroleos Mexicanos
(PEMEX; B+/Stable), Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras; BB/Stable)
and Ecopetrol S.A. (Ecopetrol; BB+/Stable), and government-owned
entities Empresa Nacional del Petroleo (ENAP; A-/Stable) and
Petroleos del Peru (Petroperu S.A.; CCC+). These companies have
strong linkage to their respective sovereigns, given their
strategic importance to each country and the potentially
significant negative social and financial implications a default
could have at a national level.
The closest peers for YPF's upstream business are PEMEX, Petrobras
and Ecopetrol. YPF's total 2023 production averaged 531,000boed,
and the reserve life was 5.5 years, most comparable with Ecopetrol,
with production of 737,000boed and a reserve life of 7.0 years in
2023, but less than Petrobras' production of 2.8mmboed and reserve
life of 10.9 years and PEMEX's production of 2.7mmboed and reserve
life of 7.7 years.
YPF has an adequate capital structure, with a gross leverage ratio,
defined as total debt/EBITDA, of 1.8x in 2023 (in USD terms) and
total debt/1P of USD7.6/boe, compared with Ecopetrol at 1.8x and
total debt/1P of USD14.3/boe, Petrobras at 0.6x and USD2.6/boe and
PEMEX at 6.7x and USD14.2/boe.
Unlike its peers ENAP, Petrobras, PEMEX and Petroperu, YPF is not
the sole provider of refined fuels in its country, Argentina. In
2023, the company had a 50% market share. YPF is an integrated
energy company, similar to Petrobras and PEMEX, offering the
company more financial flexibility, while ENAP is predominantly a
refining company that sells to marketers. Historically, YPF has
operated autonomously, with periodic control of fuel prices and
crude. YPF has successfully been able to tighten spread and
recuperate losses realized during periods of pricing freezes.
Key Assumptions
- Average gross production of 600,000boe from 2024-2027;
- Realized oil price of USD68/bbl in 2024 and an average of
USD55/bbl thereafter;
- Natural gas prices rise to USD4.25/MMBTU in 2024 and settle at
USD3.75/MMBTU thereafter;
- Average annual capex of roughly USD5.5 billion per year from 2023
to 2025;
- Downstream sales volume follows Real GDP forecasts and YPF is a
net purchaser of crude;
- Effective tax rate of 35%;
- No dividend payments over the rating horizon;
- Rollover of short-term maturities.
Recovery Analysis
Key Recovery Rating Assumptions
- The recovery analysis assumes that YPF would be liquidated in
bankruptcy rather than reorganized via going-concern;
- Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim.
Liquidation Approach
- The liquidation estimate reflects Fitch's view of the value of
balance sheet assets that can be realized in sale or liquidation
processes conducted during a bankruptcy or insolvency proceeding
and distributed to creditors;
- Inventory advance rate of 50%;
- USD10/bbl reflects the typical valuation of recent
reorganizations in the oil and gas industry;
- YPF has a material joint venture with international oil companies
that results in a reported book value of USD1.8 billion.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A downgrade of Argentina's sovereign rating.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- The Foreign Currency IDR is linked to Argentina's sovereign
rating, and an upgrade can only occur with an upgrade of
Argentina's sovereign rating.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
YPF reported USD877 million in cash and cash equivalents in 3Q24.
The company faces significant refinancing risk, heightened by
capital controls, with USD1,682 million in debt maturing in 2025
(as of November 2024), followed by USD1,849 million in 2026 and
USD1,281 million in 2027. Fitch expects YPF will continue to roll
over short-term bank and trade financing debt over the rated
horizon.
Issuer Profile
YPF, S.A is the largest fully integrated energy company in
Argentina. YPF participates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream
and Gas and Power.
YPF has been controlled by the Argentine government through its
majority stake of 51% since 2012.
Date of Relevant Committee
20-Nov-2024
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
YPF S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for GHG Emissions & Air
Quality due to due to the growing importance of the continued
development and execution of the company's energy-transition
strategy. This has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is
relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The company has a Governance Structure score of '4', due to its
nature as a majority government-owned entity and the inherent
governance risk that arises with a dominant state shareholder,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery
----------- ------ --------
YPF S.A.
senior unsecured LT CCC New Rating RR4
YPF SA: S&P Puts 'CCC' Rating to New Sr. Unsecured Amortizing Notes
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S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'CCC' issue-level rating to YPF
S.A.'s (CCC/Stable/--) proposed senior unsecured amortizing notes.
YPF will use the proceeds to tender the outstanding 8.5% senior
unsecured notes due July 2025 and for other general corporate
purposes. With this transaction, the company would complete the
refinancing of a material portion of its 2025 maturities.
S&P said, "We rate the proposed notes at the same level as the
issuer credit rating because we don't believe the company has
material financial obligations that would rank ahead of its
unsecured debt by way of structural or contractual subordination in
a default scenario.
"Our 'CCC' ratings on YPF are lower than the 'b' stand-alone credit
profile (SACP). This is because we continue to cap our ratings on
YPF at our transfer and convertibility assessment of Argentina.
Although the new administration has gradually eased restrictions on
transferring funds abroad, particularly for debt payments and
imports, we believe Argentina's macroeconomic conditions, and
particularly its external position, remain fragile.
"Our SACP on YPF reflects its competitive position as Argentina's
leading energy company, operating a fully integrated oil and gas
chain with leading market positions across the domestic upstream
and downstream segment. It also reflects the relatively low
leverage, tempered by the company's exposure to the country's
fragile economy and volatile regulatory framework.
"We estimate YPF will report adjusted EBITDA of about $5 billion in
2024 and $5.9 billion in 2025, and leverage of 2.3x and 1.8x,
respectively, including gross debt, operating leases, and asset
retirement obligations. In contrast, we forecast negative free cash
flow for the next two years.
The rating on the bond is subject to S&P's review of the final
issuance documentation.
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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: Fights for Stability Amid Growth Surge and Soaring Deficits
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Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva's third term has placed Brazil on a complex path of
economic and social developments. In two years, his administration
has faced both achievements and setbacks, painting a nuanced
picture of the nation's trajectory, according to Rio Times Online.
The report notes that the economy showed resilience with a 2.9% GDP
growth in 2023 and an expected 3.5% in 2024. This surpassed
initial projections, driven by record grain harvests and increased
household consumption, the report relays.
Inflation fell for a brief moment below the target ceiling for the
first time in three years only to raise above again, while
unemployment dropped to 6.2% in late 2024, the lowest on record,
the report says. However, the government's fiscal management has
raised eyebrows, with state-owned companies posting a record
deficit of R$7.4 billion ($1.2 billion), the largest in two
decades, the report discloses.
This comes as Brazil maintains ownership or stakes in an astounding
637 companies, a world-leading figure, the report says. Public
sector salaries have surged to R$382.2 billion ($61.6 billion),
straining the national budget, the report relays.
Perhaps most alarming is the R$1.1 trillion ($177.4 billion) hole
in public accounts, the largest since record-keeping began, the
report notes. Paradoxically, this occurs amid strong economic
growth and record tax revenue, which rose nearly 10 percentage
points above inflation, the report relays.
Financial markets responded cautiously, the report discloses.
Foreign capital flight reached $32.4 billion, and the Brazilian
real became the worst-performing major currency in 2024, the report
says. The dollar hit a record high of R$6.26, reflecting the
real's weakness, the report notes.
Environmental results were mixed, the report relays. Amazon
deforestation decreased, but the Cerrado saw record deforestation
growth. Brazil witnessed its worst wildfires in 14 years, with the
burned area 93% larger than the previous year, the report
discloses.
Health issues compounded these problems, with dengue fever claiming
about 6,000 lives, the highest toll on record, the report relays.
Social programs saw a revival. The Bolsa Familia and Minha Casa
Minha Vida programs were reintroduced, notes the report. The
minimum wage policy was reinstated, and Bolsa Familia payments
increased to R$600. Education showed signs of improvement, with
eight out of ten indicators advancing, the report discloses.
Brazil's poverty reduction in 2023-2024 shows contradictory trends,
the report says. IBGE data reports millions lifted from poverty,
with rates at their lowest since 2012, the report recalls.
However, a UFMG study reveals a sharp increase in homelessness
during the same period, challenging the narrative of overall
improvement, relates the report
Internationally, Brazil sought to regain prominence, the report
relays. The country assumed the G20 and BRICS presidency, and
Belem was chosen to host COP30 in 2025, the report notes. Efforts
were made to reposition Brazil in climate change and sustainable
development discussions, the report discloses.
Despite these efforts, challenges persist, the report says. The
INSS (National Institute of Social Security) waiting list reached
1.7 million requests, representing a large backlog of people
waiting for their social security benefits to be processed, the
report relays. Government disapproval hit 48%, the highest since
the term began, the report notes. Cases of femicide and indigenous
infant mortality increased, the report says.
Lula's administration faces the task of addressing these issues
while navigating a complex political landscape, Rio Times Online
relays. The coming years will test the government's ability to
balance progress with persistent challenges, shaping Brazil's
trajectory in the near future, the report adds.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
In October 2024, Moody's Ratings has upgraded the Government of
Brazil's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to
Ba1 from Ba2, the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba1 from
(P)Ba2; and maintained the positive outlook.
S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. Fitch Ratings
affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook.
DBRS' credit rating for Brazil was last reported at BB with
stable outlook at July 2023.
HIDROVIAS DO BRASIL: Fitch Puts 'BB-' LongTerm IDR on Watch Neg.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) Hidrovias
do Brasil S.A.'s (Hidrovias) 'BB-' Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), the 'AA-(bra)' of the
company's National Long-Term Rating and its senior unsecured
debentures rating. Fitch has also placed Hidrovias International
Finance S.a.r.l.'s senior unsecured notes rated 'BB-' on RWN.
The RWN reflects Hidrovia's leveraged capital structure,
incommensurate with the current rating, that will persist if it
can't complete the initially planned BRL1.2 billion capital
increase by April 2025, following an unsuccessful attempt in
December 2024. The rating action considered the challenges it may
encounter in improving its poor operational performance, which is
crucial for its deleverage capacity.
The ratings incorporate Hidrovia's strong business position in
Brazil's North Region waterway transport sector and the
Parana-Paraguay river system, supported by take-or-pay contracts,
and its proven financial flexibility. The ratings are constrained
by hydrological risks, potential crop failures, and client
concentration.
Key Rating Drivers
Capital Increase is Crucial: The delay in executing the BRL1.2
billion capital increase by December 2024 has heightened Fitch's
concerns regarding Hidrovia's capital structure. The company must
secure BRL700 million in additional cash and convert into capital
the BRL500 million already received through an Advance for Future
Capital Increase (AFCI) to maintain its existing ratings.
Failure to achieve this capital increase could lead to a net
adjusted debt/EBITDAR of 5.5x in 2025, following an anticipated
6.2x in 2024. Successfully completing the planned capital increase
within this time frame, combined with operational performance
improvements, could reduce net adjusted leverage to 3.6x by year
end, in line with the current ratings.
Operating Performance Recovery: Fitch projects a gradual recovery
in Hidrovias' volumes starting in 2025, following improved water
levels in the North and South Corridors. Fitch anticipates EBITDAR
and cash flow from operations (CFFO) to reach BRL617 million and
BRL255 million, respectively, in 2025, driven by a consolidated
volume increase of 6.3%, with 10% growth in the North Corridor and
5% in the South Corridor.
This is an improvement compared to the expected BRL504 million and
BRL160 million, respectively, in 2024, which were impacted by a 21%
volume decline. In 2026, Fitch forecasts EBITDAR and CFFO to
further increase to BRL780 million and BRL352 million,
respectively, assuming significantly better navigation conditions
in the South Corridor, which could result in an 8% increase in
total volumes.
Negative FCF: Hidrovias should generate negative free cash flow
(FCF) of BRL770 million from 2024 until 2027, driven by capital
expenditures (capex) totaling BRL1.9 billion in the period,
including expansion in the North Corridor. Fitch projects that
Hidrovias will be able to finance its expansion initiatives without
compromising its capital structure. This expansion is targeted at
strengthening Hidrovias' presence in Brazil's North Region's
agricultural and fertilizer transportation markets.
Challenge to Increase Client Diversification: Hidrovias faces
portfolio concentration risk, with main clients J&F Mineração, a
former contract of Vale S.A. (BBB/Stable), COFCO Group and Alumina
do Norte do Brasil S.A. contributing 48% to 62% of total EBITDA
historically. Recent client and sector additions, such as service
activities in Santos Port, only account for about 10% of EBITDAR.
In 2023, EBITDAR was divided by corridor: North (50%), South (45%),
Coastal (13%) and Santos (8%), with holding and others showing
negative EBITDAR. EBITDA of 58% is generated in Brazil and 42% in
Uruguay/Paraguay.
Ultrapar Affiliation is Positive: Fitch views Hidrovias'
affiliation with the Ultrapar group as credit positive. The
company's transition to being controlled by a corporation with a
strong credit profile and a long-term strategy is beneficial
compared to the former private equity investor. Ultrapar is one of
the leading business groups in Brazil, actively engaged in energy
and logistics infrastructure. The recent AFCI underscores the
shareholder's commitment to the issuer's credit profile. This
shareholder enhances Hidrovias' financial flexibility.
Derivation Summary
Hidrovias holds the weakest position in the 'BB' rating category
compared to regional transportation and logistics peers, typically
rated 'BB' to 'BBB'. Its rating is constrained by a medium-sized
business scale, hydrological risks and the weakest capital
structure among Brazilian peers like MRS Logistica S.A. (MRS
Logistica; Local Currency IDR BBB-/Stable), Rumo S.A. (Rumo; Local
Currency IDR BB+/Stable) and VLI S.A. (VLI; AAA[bra]/Stable).
However, Hidrovias' competitive regional position and take-or-pay
contracts help mitigate business volatility. Hidrovias' net
adjusted leverage is expected to remain higher than other rated
Brazilian peers in the transportation and logistics sector with
more mature operations and higher ratings. Rumo, VLI and MRS
Logistica should report net leverage below 2.5x in the next two
years, while Hidrovias' ratings incorporate expectations of a
higher net adjusted leverage.
Key Assumptions
- Volumes to decline 21.3% in 2024, reflecting declines of 17.6% in
the North Corridor and 43.5% in the South Corridor;
- Volumes to recover by 6.3% in 2025;
- Average annual capex of around BRL468 million in 2024-2027;
- Issuance of new debt totaling BRL400 million during 2025.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Failure to conclude the capital increase up to April 2025;
- Significant delays in operational performance improvements as
projected;
- Large debt-funded mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions, or
entering into a new business in the logistics sector that adversely
affects its capital structure on a sustained basis or increases
business risk exposure;
- Net adjusted debt to EBITDAR ratio consistently above 4.5x on a
sustained basis;
- Deterioration of its liquidity position, with increasing short-
to medium-term refinancing risks.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The removal of the RWN and assignment of a Stable Rating Outlook
depends on:
- A successful BRL1.2 billion capital increase by April 2025;
- The ability to recover its business performance as expected.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Hidrovias has consistently maintained strong cash balances. The
BRL500 million AFCI, together with the company's cash position and
proven financial flexibility, should allow the payment of USD150
million (approximately BRL900 million) by Jan. 25, 2025. An
additional BRL700 million cash inflow from a possible capital
increase of BRL1.2 billion, if it occurs, would further bolster
Hidrovias' cash position.
As of Sept. 30, 2024, Hidrovias' cash position was BRL758 million,
with short-term debt at BRL1.2 billion. Total debt stood at BRL4.6
billion, comprising international bonds (62%) maturing in 2025 and
2031, local debentures (21%), debt with Banco Nacional de
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) (10%), and leasing
obligations (6%).
Issuer Profile
Hidrovias is an integrated logistics provider focused on waterways
logistics services. It has an end-to-end infrastructure including
transshipment, port terminals and a fleet of barges, pusher tugs
and cabotage vessels. Ultrapar is the main shareholder with a 40%
stake.
Summary of Financial Adjustments
- Lease expenses were adjusted back to operating expenses, reducing
EBITDA;
- The leasing obligation reported in the balance sheet is
considered as debt.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Hidrovias do Brasil S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Exposure to Environmental Impacts due to the effective impact on
the company operations due the hydrological risks, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Hidrovias
International
Finance S.a.r.l.
senior
unsecured LT BB- Rating Watch On BB-
Hidrovias do
Brasil S.A. LT IDR BB- Rating Watch On BB-
LC LT IDR BB- Rating Watch On BB-
Natl LT AA-(bra)Rating Watch On AA-(bra)
senior
unsecured Natl LT AA-(bra)Rating Watch On AA-(bra)
=============
J A M A I C A
=============
JAMAICA: BOJ Seeks to Raise $2.2 Billion With Treasury Bills
------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that the Bank of Jamaica will be floating a
273-day, 182-day and 91-day Treasury Bill on January 8 to help the
government raise $2.2 billion to finance the budget.
The government is seeking to raise $800 million from the 273-day
bill and $700 million each from the 182-day and 91-day bills,
according to RJR News.
All applications will be settled under competitive bidding on
January 10 and the minimum amount, which can be applied for is
$5,000, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-'
from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In
September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica
and revised outlook to positive.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
JAMAICA: Economy Down 3.5% in Real Value Added for Third Quarter
----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica's economy experienced a 3.5 decline
in real value added during the third quarter of this year compared
with the similar period in 2023.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) said the contraction
was attributed to a 2.2 decline in the Services Industry and a 7.2%
dip in the Goods Producing Industry, according to RJR News.
Hurricane Beryl, which struck in July, severely affected the
economy, the report notes.
The Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector suffered a 12.5 decline
due to damaged crops, delayed planting, and disrupted harvesting,
the report relays.
Similarly, the Mining & Quarrying sector contracted by 17.4 after
one of Jamaica's major alumina-producing plants sustained
significant damage, adds the report.
Beryl also caused extensive damage to the Jamaica Public Service
Company's infrastructure, delaying power restoration across several
parishes, the report notes.
This led to reduced electricity and water consumption, negatively
affecting the Electricity & Water Supply and Other Services
sectors, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-'
from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In
September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica
and revised outlook to positive.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
JAMAICA: Retailers Report Dent in Christmas and New Year Sales
--------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that many of Jamaica's formal and informal
retailers say the high cost of living and the increase in the duty
free value of personal imports to US$100 put a dent in their
Christmas and New Year sales.
The tight monetary policies being pursued by the central bank,
which resulted in an expansion of the money supply by only 4.8%
compared with an increase of over 11% last year was another factor
affecting Christmas and New Year sales, according to RJR News.
The Bank of Jamaica says its policy decision was due to lower
levels of inflation and economic activities, the report notes.
The economy grew by 1.4% during the first quarter of last year,
flatlined during the second quarter and declined by 3.5% during the
third quarter of 2024, the report relays.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and the BOJ are
forecasting further economic decline for the fourth quarter ending
December, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-'
from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In
September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica
and revised outlook to positive.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
===========
M E X I C O
===========
VINTE VIVIENDAS: S&P Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Positive
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-' long-term global scale issuer
credit and 'mxA-' national scale ratings on Mexican homebuilder
Vinte Viviendas Integrales S.A.B. de C.V. S&P also removed the
ratings from CreditWatch developing, where it placed them on May
23, 2024.
Vinte Viviendas recently acquired 99.92% of Servicios Corporativos
Javer S.A.B. de C.V.'s (Javer; not rated) capital stock for about
Mexican peso (MXN) 4.3 billion, through a mix of new long-term debt
and equity.
S&P said, "The positive outlook reflects our expectation that Vinte
will quickly integrate Javer and operate with a prudent financial
policy toward capital deployment, the use of debt, and its
liquidity position. We could raise the ratings over the next 12
months if the company sustains adjusted net debt to EBITDA
(including factoring of receivables) below 3.0x and solid
liquidity.
"The positive outlook on Vinte reflects a potential upgrade over
the next 12 months if it successfully integrates Javer and sustains
stronger credit metrics and liquidity. In our view, Vinte prudently
funded the MXN4.3 billion acquisition of Javer through a mix of
about MXN3.0 billion long-term financing and about MXN1.9 billion
in equity proceeds (mostly from the issuance of new shares), while
we believe excess proceeds will support its long-term growth
strategy. We expect the transaction funding, coupled with Javer's
low leverage at closing (net leverage below 1.0x) and a successful
integration of the acquired assets, should help Vinte to improve
its financial position and overall credit profile.
"In our revised base-case scenario, we now consider that Vinte will
post adjusted net debt to EBITDA (including account receivables
factoring) of about 2.4x-2.6x and slightly positive discretionary
cash flow (DCF) to debt by year-end 2025. This will be a material
improvement from adjusted credit metrics of 4.3x net debt to EBITDA
and negative 19.1% DCF to debt reported in the 12 months ended
September 2024, before the acquisition closed.
"Moreover, we expect Vinte to remain proactive in terms of
liability management, particularly in refinancing Javer's existing
debt, which should help improve the cost and average life of its
debt. In our view, the expected improvement in its financial
position and sustaining adequate levels of liquidity could result
in an upgrade over the next 12 months.
"Post acquisition, we expect Vinte to continue delivering solid
operating performance, strengthening its competitive position in
the highly fragmented Mexican housing industry with solid
profitability. The combined entity will be the largest homebuilder
in the country in terms of units sold and with a geographic
presence across 11 states. We expect Vinte's flexible business
model and segment diversification will continue benefiting from
several favorable industry fundamentals over the next 12 months.
Those include Mexico's large housing deficit and mortgage
availability from well capitalized financial institutions. We also
think nearshoring activities in Mexico could drive higher housing
demand in several states where Vinte operates in the coming years.
These factors should help Vinte strengthen its competitive position
in the country and continue delivering solid operating performance,
with pro forma revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margins above 7%
and 17% in 2025. The latter considers sales volume growth of 3%-4%
and price adjustments at least at inflation levels. In addition, we
believe Vinte could post lower cost of building materials, given
that its larger scale of operations could result in better
agreements with suppliers and an overall stable forecast for key
input costs.
"While in our base case we assume the company will maintain solid
operating and financial performance over the next 12 months,
several downside risks remain. We forecast that the Mexican economy
will continue to slow in 2025, with expected GDP growth of 1.2%.
However, weaker-than-expected economic activity, amid elevated
house prices, could result in weaker demand and undermine Vinte’s
ability to pass through cost increases or increase its working
capital cycle, ultimately hurting its financial position. Moreover,
we believe the acquisition of Javer is a transformational event for
Vinte because it will more than double its scale of operations in
terms of units sold and revenue base. In our view, this could also
bring some challenges to achieving efficient inventory management
and sales capabilities to maintain a solid growth trajectory
without hurting its credit metrics."
=====================
P U E R T O R I C O
=====================
PUERTO RICO: PREPA Bondholders Defend Rights Amid Bankruptcy
------------------------------------------------------------
Bondholders of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, including
GoldenTree Asset Management, LP, Assured Guaranty Inc., and
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, on January 03, 2025,
issued the following statement:
"On December 31, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit
denied an unprecedented additional round of motions for rehearing
filed by the Financial Oversight and Management Board and the
Official Committee representing PREPA's junior unsecured creditors
seeking to wrongly strip fundamental bondholder rights. This is the
third time in the last six months that the bondholders have won,
and the Board has lost, in the Court of Appeals, which has now
repeatedly confirmed that PREPA's over $8.2 billion face amount of
revenue bonds (which, with interest accrued prior to and during the
now-seven-year span of the case, could result in a claim of over
$11 billion) are properly secured by a perfected, enforceable lien
on PREPA's past, present and future net revenues.
Tone deaf to the Court's repeated rejection of its arguments, the
Board announced its intention to resume its already-failed strategy
to impose a nonconsensual plan of adjustment, rather than working
with its secured and properly perfected bondholders on a consensual
exit from bankruptcy that recognizes the bondholders' legal rights
and funds PREPA's immediate financing needs. After reneging on
three prior settlements, the Board's strategy ensures that PREPA
will remain in bankruptcy for the foreseeable future and that
measures to improve the reliability of PREPA's electric system will
be delayed indefinitely against the best interests of Puerto Rico.
As demonstrated by the end-of-year island-wide power outage, the
people of Puerto Rico will continue to suffer while the Board's
advisors add to all-time record high fees for a municipal
restructuring, currently in excess of $1.5 billion.
The bondholders believe they are legally entitled to post-petition
interest on their claim, which would increase it to over $11
billion, that they have billions of administrative expense claims
arising from PREPA's consumption of their collateral during the
case, that their rights are senior to the underfunded claims of
PREPA's pension, and that the Commonwealth has liability for any
bondholder losses. The bondholders intend to vigorously litigate
these and other issues absent a global settlement. In that regard,
the mediation team appointed in PREPA's bankruptcy case has
publicly expressed its skepticism regarding the ability to forge a
settlement absent further litigation, which is now underscored by
the Board's commitment to nonconsensual resolution.
The bondholders remain willing to promptly resolve PREPA's
bankruptcy case using rates that the Board has said would be fair
and affordable. In addition to agreeing to take back 50-year
replacement bonds that would have no fixed principal payments and
interest that could be accrued rather than paid if needed, the
bondholders' proposal would also provide $2.5 billion of new
funding to pay for PREPA's bankruptcy exit and to begin paying for
urgently needed improvements to PREPA's electric system.
Thus far, all of Puerto Rico's bankruptcies have been resolved
consensually, in keeping with PROMESA's overarching aim of
restoring its market access. The Board's current plan to vitiate
bondholder rights at PREPA will be long and fruitless.
The secured and properly perfected bondholders are entitled to
have
their rights respected and the people of Puerto Rico are entitled
to a reliable electric power system. The Board's costly and
reckless behavior must end."
About Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is a self-governing commonwealth in association with
the United States. The chief of state is the President of the
United States of America. The head of government is an elected
Governor. There are two legislative chambers: the House of
Representatives, 51 seats, and the Senate, 27 seats. The
governor-elect is Ricardo Antonio "Ricky" Rossello Nevares, the
son
of former governor Pedro Rossello.
In 2016, the U.S. Congress passed PROMESA, which, among other
things, created the Financial Oversight and Management Board and
imposed an automatic stay on creditor lawsuits against the
government, which expired May 1, 2017.
The members of the oversight board are: (i) Andrew G. Biggs, (ii)
Jose B. Carrion III, (iii) Carlos M. Garcia, (iv) Arthur J.
Gonzalez, (v) Jose R. Gonzalez, (vi) Ana. J. Matosantos, and (vii)
David A. Skeel Jr.
On May 3, 2017, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico filed a petition
for relief under Title III of the Puerto Rico Oversight,
Management, and Economic Stability Act ("PROMESA"). The case is
pending in the United States District Court for the District of
Puerto Rico under case number 17-cv-01578. A copy of Puerto Rico's
PROMESA petition is available at http://bankrupt.com/misc/17
01578-00001.pdf
On May 5, 2017, the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
(COFINA) commenced a case under Title III of PROMESA (D.P.R. Case
No. 17-01599). Joint administration has been sought for the Title
III cases.
On May 21, 2017, two more agencies -- Employees Retirement System
of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Puerto
Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Case Nos. 17-01685 and
17-01686) -- commenced Title III cases.
U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts named U.S. District Judge Laura
Taylor Swain to preside over the Title III cases.
The Oversight Board has hired as advisors, Proskauer Rose LLP and
O'Neill & Borges LLC as legal counsel, McKinsey & Co. as strategic
consultant, Citigroup Global Markets as municipal investment
banker, and Ernst & Young, as financial advisor.
Martin J. Bienenstock, Esq., Scott K. Rutsky, Esq., and Philip M.
Abelson, Esq., of Proskauer Rose LLP; and Hermann D. Bauer, Esq.,
at O'Neill & Borges LLC are onboard as attorneys.
Prime Clerk LLC is the claims and noticing agent. Prime Clerk
maintains the case Web site
https://cases.primeclerk.com/puertorico
Jones Day is serving as counsel to certain ERS bondholders.
Paul Weiss is counsel to the Ad Hoc Group of Puerto Rico General
Obligation Bondholders.
=============
U R U G U A Y
=============
URUGUAY: Inflation Hits 5.49% in 2024, Stays Within Target Range
----------------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that Uruguay's economy achieved a
significant milestone in 2024. The country's inflation rate settled
at 5.49%, marking the second consecutive year within the official
target range. This range, set by the Central Bank of Uruguay
(BCU), spans from 3% to 6%, according to Rio Times Online. The
National Statistics Institute (INE) released this data on Friday,
January 3.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase compared to
2023, the report relates. Last year's inflation rate was 5.11%,
the lowest in 18 years, recalls the report. However, 2024's figure
remained well below the 8.29% recorded in 2022. This trend
indicates a stable economic environment in Uruguay, the report
discloses.
December 2024 saw a monthly CPI rise of 0.34%, the report says.
Key drivers were recreation, sports, and culture at 3.07%,
restaurants and accommodation at 1.03%, and transport at 0.82%.
These figures reflect normal economic activity without excessive
price hikes, the report relates.
Analysts had predicted a 5.37% inflation rate for 2024, the report
discloses. Their forecast for December was a 0.2% monthly
increase. The actual results closely matched these projections,
suggesting accurate economic assessments, the report relays.
Since mid-2023, Uruguay has experienced its lowest inflation levels
since 2005, the report notes. This achievement stands out as a
major economic success for President Luis Lacalle Pou's
administration. It demonstrates effective monetary policy
management, the report discloses.
The BCU raised the Monetary Policy Rate by 25 basis points to 8.75%
in late December, the report says. This move aims to guide
inflation and expectations towards 4.5% annually within two years.
It shows the central bank's commitment to maintaining economic
stability, the report notes.
According to Rio Times Online, Uruguay's economic performance
reflects a balanced approach. The government has managed to
control inflation without resorting to heavy-handed interventions.
This strategy aligns with principles of economic freedom and
responsible fiscal management, the report adds.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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