/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/250328.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Friday, March 28, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 63
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
YPF SA: Burford Met with Silence From Milei Over US$16BB Judgment
C O L O M B I A
COLOMBIA TELECOMUNICACIONES: S&P Affirms 'B+' ICR, Outlook Pos.
GRUPO SURA: S&P Lowers Long-Term ICR to 'BB', Outlook Stable
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Peso Depreciation Due to Global Factors
P A N A M A
CFG INVESTMENTS 2025-1: S&P Assigns B (sf) Rating to Class C Notes
P E R U
PERU LNG: Fitch Affirms 'B' Long-Term IDRs, Off Watch Neg.
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: PM Prioritises Forex Allocation
V E N E Z U E L A
CITGO PETROLEUM: Contrarian Unit's $3.7B Bid Faces Opposition
X X X X X X X X
JAMAICA: MSMEs Urged to Cash in on Government Contracts
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
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YPF SA: Burford Met with Silence From Milei Over US$16BB Judgment
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Buenos Aires Times reports that on paper, it was one of the most
lucrative victories ever in the field of litigation financing.
Burford Capital Ltd, a niche firm, hit the jackpot along with other
creditors when a judge delivered a US$16.1-billion award on claims
it acquired against the Argentine government for less than US$17
million, according to Buenos Aires Times.
Then Javier Milei, a pro-business candidate, won Argentina's
presidential election, offering hope that Burford could reach a
quick settlement with a government motivated to put the past behind
it, the report notes.
But any optimism for a settlement has long dissipated, more than a
year after Milei took office, the report says. In his first public
comments, the person Burford hired to facilitate talks with the
government said he hasn't had a single meeting with Argentine
officials, the report relays.
"There have been no talks for now with the government," Gerardo
Mato said in an interview at Bloomberg's offices in Buenos Aires,
declining to speculate as to why. "We've contacted the authorities
at the Economy Ministry and legal authorities. No type of
negotiation has been established yet," he added.
The ruling, a saga stemming from Argentina's nationalisation of
energy firm YPF SA more than a decade ago, risks impeding Milei's
efforts to return to capital markets and attract foreign
investment, the report notes. And Mato argues that without a
settlement, Argentina is only digging its financial hole deeper and
threatening the progress the libertarian president has made in
setting a course for economic recovery, the report relays. Every
day, US$2 million in interest is added to the total Argentina owes,
which now surpasses US$17 billion, Mato said, the report says.
Argentina's Economy Ministry didn't respond to a request for
comment on Mato's remarks.
The 61-year-old is a veteran Wall Street banker who's worked on
Latin American bond deals for years, including the 2016 resolution
of Argentina's drawn-out battle with hedge-fund billionaire Paul
Singer over defaulted debt, the report discloses. In the
interview, Mato emphasised the need to reach a fair deal for both
sides, saying that Burford doesn't want the type of hostile talks
Singer engaged in, the report relays.
Milei has wooed Wall Street since he stormed to power 15 months ago
on a crusade to free up Argentina's tightly controlled economy and
end decades of malaise, the report dicloses. But the libertarian
president has said little about the ruling, issued in September
2023 by US District Judge Loretta Preska in New York, the report
says. Soon after taking office, he told a local television station
Argentina would be willing to issue a bond to pay Burford -- which
was entitled to US$6.2 billion of the total judgment -- but there's
been no progress since. Argentina appealed Preska's ruling, the
report relays.
Despite Mato's insistence that striking a deal would help Milei's
campaign to improve perceptions of Argentina among global
investors, the administration continues to fight the case tooth and
nail, the report notes.
"The most important thing to insert Argentina into the first world
is to respect the rule of law," said Mato, an Argentine who lives
in the United States, notes the report. "Any negotiation by the
government in this case would be extremely valued," he added.
But radio silence from Economy Minister Luis Caputo seems to
suggest Milei's government doesn't share that assessment, the
report says. Argentina is already attracting big investment plans
in energy and mining through a program that provides sweeping tax
incentives and legal loopholes, the report relays. And Caputo is
also exploring Argentina's return at the sovereign level to global
debt markets, the report discloses.
Some investors abroad are concerned about the case impacting
Argentina's return to markets, the report notes.
"Burford's judgment against Argentina has the potential to impede
Argentina's ability to access international capital markets," Jared
Lou, a portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at
William Blair, said before Mato's interview, the report relays.
"It's possible Burford could enforce its claim against Argentina
when the proceeds of a new bond are being held in a financial
institution," he added.
Mato said that even if Argentina moves forward by selling bonds
without a settlement in the case, it could eventually be a problem,
the report notes. If Argentina fails to overturn the decision on
appeal, it could get creative with its debt structure to avoid an
embargo of accounts -- a legal technicality that would likely turn
off some investors, the report discloses.
"If we're in a situation where the final ruling is favorable for
Burford, I think that complicates Argentina's return to
international capital markets," Mato said. Once Argentina goes to
bond markets, he warned that "if you can't do a plain vanilla
structure, a standard structure, every wrinkle will cost," he
added.
A final decision in the courts, however, may take years, the report
relays. The next step in the case, now in a US appeals court,
would be whether there's a hearing on technical issues before those
judges make a decision, the report notes. If the appeals court
judges uphold Preska's ruling, Argentina's only legal option would
be to appeal to the US Supreme Court, the report adds.
Patience Required
For now, Mato said, Burford doesn't plan to aggressively pursue
Argentina's other assets. He added that Burford could accept a bond
-- or other securities with market structure -- as a form of
payment, the report relates.
"The best tool that we have is patience. The tool is the judicial
tool," says Mato. "We're waiting for the final resolution. Burford
isn't in any rush on this issue. If we negotiate before, it'll
benefit the government because it's going to have a discount on the
debt. If it happens after, they're going to have to pay the
totality of the suit," the report notes.
Burford is perhaps the best-known of a cadre of investment funds
that specialise in financing lawsuits. Launched in 2009 with
backing from Neil Woodford and his former fund Invesco Ltd, Burford
immediately made a splash with its founders' prestigious
credentials, the report relays.
Chief Executive Officer Christopher Bogart was previously general
counsel for Time Warner Inc. and a litigator at elite law firm
Cravath, Swaine & Moore. Co-founder Jonathan Molot is a one-time US
Supreme Court clerk and Treasury Department adviser, and also a
Georgetown University law professor, the report discloses.
The goal of firms like Burford is to identify undervalued legal
claims, pay lawyers to successfully litigate them, and then take a
percentage of the award, the report says.
In this case, which targets Argentina over its 2012 nationalisation
of YPF, Burford acquired the claims from the original shareholders
for a little less than US$17 million in 2015, the report recalls.
At the time of Preska's September 2023 judgment, the firm said it
had paid around US$50 million in legal fees, the report notes. It
had also sold more than a third of its interest to other investors,
mainly large hedge funds, for US$236 million, the report relays.
But litigation funding has often worked better in theory than in
practice, the report notes.
Many of Burford's early competitors folded. Burford itself, listed
in both New York and London, came under attack in 2019 by
short-seller Carson Block, whose criticisms of its business
practices knocked off almost two thirds of its share price at the
time, the report discloses. Burford later made changes to its
corporate structure to address investor concerns. Shares would
rocket to as high as US$16.42 after Preska's award in the YPF case,
the report says. Before the ruling, they were worth about US$7.
The stock closed just above US$14, the report relays.
Preska's ruling said the government's takeover of YPF violated
company bylaws that required it to make a tender offer to all
shareholders at a pre-determined price, the report notes. At the
time, the deputy economy minister who spearheaded the expropriation
argued that the bylaws were a "bear trap," comments frequently
cited by Burford in its case, the report discloses.
Argentina's stalemate with Burford comes at a crucial time for
Milei, the report says. His negotiations for a new agreement with
the International Monetary Fund are being closely monitored by
investors and he is also trying to keep voters onside by crushing
inflation before a crucial midterm election later this year, the
report notes.
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in
January 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed YPF S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign
and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'CCC'.
Additionally, Fitch has affirmed YPF's outstanding senior unsecured
notes at 'CCC' with Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. The company's
Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) remains 'b', and its ratings are
aligned with Fitch's "Government Related Entities Criteria,"
reflecting government ownership and strategic importance.
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C O L O M B I A
===============
COLOMBIA TELECOMUNICACIONES: S&P Affirms 'B+' ICR, Outlook Pos.
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' issuer credit and issue
ratings on Colombia Telecomunicaciones S.A. E.S.P. (Coltel)
currently owned by Telefonica Hispanoamerica S.L. (not rated).
S&P maintained the positive outlook on the rating, reflecting its
expectations that Coltel will continue to strengthen its
stand-alone credit profile as it recovers business growth and
continues to work on operating cash generation and debt refinancing
while improving credit metrics in the next 12-18 months.
On March 12, 2025, Millicom International Cellular S.A. (not rated)
announced a binding offer to acquire the 67.5% stake in Coltel
currently owned by Telefonica Hispanoamerica S.L. (not rated).
In S&P's view, the proposed acquisition by Millicom is likely to
have a positive impact on Coltel's competitive position in
Colombia, but the timeline of the transaction remains uncertain.
Millicom's $400 million offer targets a consolidation of the
second- and third-largest telecom players in Colombia--Coltel and
UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones S.A. E.S.P. (TIGO; not rated),
respectively.
Over the past few years, players other than market-leading Claro
(not rated) have been challenged by fierce competition--aggressive
strategies focused on increasing market share for new entrants have
hindered pricing capabilities and, thus, profitability. In this
sense, the rationale for the proposed transaction is to create a
larger player with wider operational headroom, more efficient
investments in the network, and more robust commercial strategies,
which can enhance the business risk profile of the resulting
entity.
Currently, Millicom has a 50% ownership stake in TIGO. S&P said,
"We expect Millicom will also seek 100% of ownership by aiming to
acquire the remaining 50% owned by the municipality of Medellin.
This follows Millicom's intention to acquire the remainder of
Coltel's ownership, held by the Colombian government and other
investors, as part of its strategy to consolidate a larger
operator. While the full details on the necessary resources and
related funding mechanisms to complete these acquisitions are
currently unknown, we don't forecast they will negatively affect
the resulting group's credit quality."
S&P said, "We don't expect Millicom's proposed acquisition of the
67.5% stake in Coltel to close in 2025 because of the required
regulatory approvals. Furthermore, the sale of the public
participation in both Coltel and TIGO entails several steps, in
line with current legislation. Therefore, while we think the
proposed transaction could strengthen Millicom and the resulting
player's competitive position in the Colombian market--and have a
potentially positive impact from a credit perspective--the timeline
for the approval of the transaction and a potential merger between
the two brands is unlikely to have an effect in the short term.
"We continue to think Coltel could improve its financial risk
profile in the short term, which could enhance its stand-alone
credit profile--regardless of the completion of the acquisition.
Over the last three quarters, Coltel's adjusted EBITDA margins have
benefited from the company's efforts to cut expenses and optimize
its operations, following tough competition for revenue growth. We
expect that the company will post adjusted EBITDA margins above 22%
in 2024 and that margins will remain at similar levels during the
next two years.
"Consequently, and given Coltel's efforts to refinance and reduce
its short-term debt maturities, leverage metrics have improved. We
expect adjusted debt to EBITDA to remain below 3.5x in 2024-2026,
down from 3.7x in 2023, and to gradually ease toward 3.0x."
There are two remaining aspects that S&P would expect Coltel to
strengthen in order to improve its financial risk profile:
-- Consistent cash flow generation. In 2024, Coltel improved free
operating cash flow as a result of manageable capital expenditures
(capex) and a more favorable working capital position. However, to
consider raising the ratings, S&P would look for Coltel to post a
10% free operating cash flow-to-debt ratio consistently, which can
be consolidated through the shared infrastructure strategy.
-- Sustainable revenues. Despite favorable subsector trends for
some of its services, such as fiber, during 2024, revenue decreased
more than S&P expected. This was largely due to lower equipment
sales as high inflation and interest rates reduced incentives for
equipment renewal. S&P expects Coltel to stabilize this trend (not
accounting for the potential upside from the acquisition) and
achieve low-single-digit (1%-2%) consolidated revenue growth for
the next two years.
S&P said, "The positive outlook indicates our view of Coltel's
stronger metrics. However, we would look for continuity and
consistency of cash generation through operations (excluding
extraordinary asset sales and others) to revise our assessment of
Coltel's financial risk profile to a stronger category. To maintain
the current business risk profile assessment, we expect the company
to continue focusing on strengthening market share and increasing
its subscriber base, allowing for higher absorption of operating
costs, while also reducing capital expenditure (capex) for fiber
deployment.
"For the next 12-18 months, we expect the company to post debt to
EBITDA close to 3x and positive free operating cash flow (FOCF).
"In addition, we think that the proposed acquisition by Millicom
could lead to an upgrade because a larger business position would
be beneficial for operations. However, the approval, closing, and
implementation timelines for the transaction remain uncertain."
S&P could revise the outlook to stable or downgrade Coltel in the
next 12 months if:
-- Liquidity pressures rise from short-term debt maturities, cash
shortfalls, or higher-than-expected cash expenses, leading the
company to rely on higher debt or refinancings, which could suggest
weaker risk management or unsustainable debt;
-- The company fails to strengthen operating cash flow, raising
debt to EBITDA toward 4x, while FOCF to debt remains below 10%;
-- The company deviates from the current projected scenario,
suggesting a weaker business risk profile; or
-- The acquisition by Millicom is completed through material
incremental debt, which hinders the group's credit profile.
S&P could upgrade Coltel in the next 12-18 months if it:
-- Maintains debt to EBITDA close to 3x, while strengthening FOCF
to debt above 10%;
-- Posts higher-than-expected operating revenue that suggests
favorable business dynamics; and
-- Demonstrates business efficiencies through consistently higher
EBITDA, maintains adequate liquidity sources, and covers capex and
working capital needs without requiring additional debt or reducing
its cash balance by year-end.
GRUPO SURA: S&P Lowers Long-Term ICR to 'BB', Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term global scale issuer credit
and issue ratings on Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A. (Grupo
Sura) to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that as Grupo Sura
continues its ownership structure reorganization, the company will
maintain the loan-to-value ratio above 20% and the cash flow
adequacy ratio well above 0.7x.
The restructuring of Grupo Sura's investment portfolio follows its
strategy to focus on the financial sector. In the past two years,
Grupo Sura began reorganizing its investment portfolio with the
divestment of its stake in Nutresa (not rated) and by increasing
its stake by 9.74% in Sura Asset Management (not rated). S&P said,
"With the announced spin-off of Grupo Argos (not rated), we expect
the portfolio transformation to conclude by year-end 2025. In our
view, the future independence of spun-off companies will allow
Grupo Sura to focus on and enhance the performance of its main
subsidiaries in the financial sector: Bancolombia, Suramericana,
and Sura Asset Management."
With the announced Grupo Argos spin-off, S&P believes the
loan-to-value (LTV) ratio will take longer than first expected to
recover below 20%. As a result of the Nutresa and Sura Asset
Management transactions, Grupo Sura increased its debt in 2024 to
$1.6 billion, or Colombian peso (COP) 7.1 trillion--a 19% increase
from 2023. In 2023, the portfolio value had dropped about 23%
because of Nutresa's exit, and the drop was not fully compensated
by the 18% value raise in the remaining subsidiaries by year-end
2024. This led the company to record consistent LTV ratios of
around 23% in 2023 and 2024.
S&P said, "After the spin-off of Grupo Argos, the remaining
investees will need to recover the loss of around 18% in Grupo
Sura's portfolio value, while we expect debt of around $1.5
billion. Thus, we expect the company will take longer to
organically reduce its leverage below our 20% threshold, leading us
to view its financial risk as increased.
"We anticipate a sustained flow of dividends from the investees
even after Grupo Sura's portfolio restructuring. As of Dec. 31,
2024, Grupo Argos represented 8% of the consolidated dividends, and
hence we don't foresee a significant impact on the dividends that
Grupo Sura will receive after the spin-off concludes. The remaining
investees' stable financial performance will be able to compensate
for the dividend loss. However, we now expect a decline to around
$132 million in dividends paid to shareholders in 2026, given the
exit of Grupo Argos.
"Liquidity remains tight, but we expect Grupo Sura's liability
management strategies will provide cushion in the coming six
months. After the divestment of Nutresa concluded in 2024, Grupo
Sura incurred an extraordinary tax liability of around $171
million, which we view as the main source of pressure on its
liquidity in 2025. The company has several alternatives, such as
committed lines, to secure the resources to comply with this
obligation, but we do not consider them in our analysis given the
maturity is below 12 months. Moreover, Grupo Sura has a track
record of successfully refinancing its debt, given its solid
relationships with banks, as shown by the recent partial prepayment
of its senior unsecured notes due 2026 with a mix of committed
credit lines and cash.
"In addition, the company maintains flexibility to adjust dividend
payments in order to prioritize its liquidity position. We believe
the prudent liability management that Grupo Sura has demonstrated
will allow it to comply with its financial obligations while
maintaining adequate liquidity.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that as Grupo Sura
completes its ownership structure reorganization, the LTV ratio
will remain above 20% and cash flow adequacy well above 0.7x, amid
stable operating and financial performance from its main investees
and stable debt."
S&P could lower the ratings on Grupo Sura in the coming six to 12
months if:
-- The liquidity position weakens, with sources covering uses by
less than 1.2x, due to either a reduction in received dividends, an
inability to refinance short-term debt or extend committed credit
lines, a higher dividend distribution, or major unexpected
obligations;
-- Grupo Sura fails to produce a refinancing strategy related to
its outstanding $300 million notes due 2026, pressuring its
liquidity position and increasing refinancing risks;
-- Asset quality worsens because of weaker creditworthiness in any
of the group's main subsidiaries; or
-- Contrary to S&P's expectations, the company's LTV rises above
30% because of portfolio value deterioration while net debt
increases considerably on a sustained basis, which could happen if
the remaining investees' market capitalizations can't mitigate the
decline in value from the spin-off of Grupo Argos.
Although it is unlikely, S&P could upgrade Grupo Sura in the next
12 months if the company achieves a stronger portfolio value or
substantially reduces debt, leading to LTV ratios below 20% on a
sustained basis, while maintaining adequate liquidity.
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D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Peso Depreciation Due to Global Factors
-----------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that President Luis Abinader cited the
Central Bank's assessment that the peso's depreciation against the
dollar is driven by global economic trends strengthening the U.S.
currency. While he did not provide further details, he assured
that the Central Bank would intervene at the right time if
necessary, according to Dominican Today.
The dollar has been rising for months, reaching 62.99 pesos per
sale, the report notes. Abinader expressed confidence that the
increase will eventually subside, emphasizing that the economy
remains stable despite its slow pace, the report relays.
He noted that the country continues to generate dollars through
exports, tourism, remittances, and free trade zones, with foreign
currency reserves at historically high levels, the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the
island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis
Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB' long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the
Dominican Republic on December 3, 2024. The outlook remains
stable. S&P also affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign
credit ratings and kept the transfer and convertibility
(T&C) assessment unchanged at 'BBB-'.
Fitch, on November 26, 2024, affirmed the Dominican Republic's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'.
The Rating Outlook is Positive.
Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
in August 2023 with the outlook changed to positive.
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P A N A M A
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CFG INVESTMENTS 2025-1: S&P Assigns B (sf) Rating to Class C Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its ratings to CFG Investments Ltd.'s
series 2025-1 notes. At the same time, S&P withdrew its ratings on
the series 2023-1 notes due to the notes being redeemed early using
proceeds of the series 2025-1 issuance.
The note issuance is an ABS transaction backed by unsecured
personal loan receivables originated in five jurisdictions: Aruba
(BBB/Positive/A-2), Curacao (BBB-/Stable/A-3), Bonaire (not rated),
Panama (BBB-/Stable/A-3), and Sint Maarten (not rated).
The ratings reflect:
-- The availability of approximately 30.7%, 22.2%, and 13.5% hard
credit enhancement to the class A, B, and C notes, respectively, in
the form of subordination, overcollateralization, and a reserve
account. Additionally, the deal will benefit by approximately 20.0%
excess spread. These credit support levels are, in S&P's view,
sufficient to withstand stresses commensurate with the ratings on
the notes, based on our stressed cash flow scenarios.
-- S&P's expectation of timely interest and principal payments by
the legal final maturity dates under stressed cash flow modeling
scenarios appropriate to the assigned ratings.
-- The collateral characteristics of the securitized pool, which
includes loans from five different jurisdictions: Aruba, CuraƧao,
Bonaire, Panama, and Sint Maarten. The transaction has a 25-month
revolving period during which the loan composition can change. As
such, S&P considered the worst-case pool allowed by the
transaction's concentration limits.
-- The transaction's payment structure and mechanisms, which
incorporate performance-based triggers, which are linked to a
monthly cumulative net loss percentage defined in the transaction
documents that lead to revolving period termination events, and
early amortization triggers that are linked to a servicer default,
among others.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which includes a Cayman
Islands special-purpose vehicle issuing the notes and
special-purpose entities in each jurisdiction (called borrowers) to
which the respective sellers has transferred the portfolio of loans
(the beneficial interests).
-- CFG Holdings Ltd.'s track record in originating and servicing
consumer loan products across all jurisdictions, its established
management, and our assessment of the operational risks associated
with CFG's decentralized business model across certain
jurisdictions.
-- The transaction's exposure to the counterparty risk of the bank
account providers (which have credit quality consistent with the
ratings) in each relevant jurisdiction, the transaction's
commingling risk (which S&P believes is mitigated by the two-day
transfer of funds), and the existence of a reserve account.
Since S&P issued preliminary ratings, the final coupons for each
class were updated. This did not affect the ratings.
Ratings Assigned
CFG Investments Ltd. (Series 2025-1)
Class A, $180.7 million (6.47% interest rate): BBB- (sf)
Class B, $21.8 million (9.16% interest rate): BB (sf)
Class C, $22.5 million (12.72% interest rate): B (sf)
Class R, $0.0 million: NR
Class RR, $11.0 million: NR
Ratings Withdrawn
CFG Investments Ltd. (Series 2023-1)
Class A, $107.1 million (8.56% interest rate): BBB- (sf)
Class B, $24.5 million (10.05% interest rate): BBB- (sf)
Class C, $17.2 million (13.05% interest rate): BB- (sf)
Class D, $12.1 million (16.80% interest rate): B (sf)
Class RR, $7.3 million (19.00% interest rate): NR
NR--Not rated.
=======
P E R U
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PERU LNG: Fitch Affirms 'B' Long-Term IDRs, Off Watch Neg.
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed PERU LNG S.R.L.'s (PLNG) 'B' Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and
removed the ratings from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). Fitch has
affirmed and removed PLNG's 'B' rating with a Recovery Rating of
'RR4' USD940 million senior unsecured notes due 2030 from RWN. The
Rating Outlook on the IDR is Stable.
The rating actions reflect improved liquidity due to favorable
pricing and higher-than-expected sales volume. PLNG paid USD102
million in debt service, maintaining cash above USD100 million.
PLNG's ratings consider its volatile operations linked to its sale
and purchase agreement (SPA), limiting revenue growth and
heightening commodity price risks. Fitch expects PLNG's EBITDA
leverage to be around 4.0x by the end of 2025 and near 3.5x in
2026, per Fitch's price deck.
The Recovery Rating is capped at 'RR4' given Peru's Group D status
in Fitch's "Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings
Criteria."
Key Rating Drivers
Improving Liquidity Profile: A better pricing environment by the
end of 2024 allowed the company to rebuild its cash position to
USD102 million, which is better than what Fitch had anticipated.
Fitch believes the company's available cash and credit facilities
and FCF to be sufficient to pay the USD100 million in debt service
for the remainder of 2025. The DSCR ratio will remain slightly
below 1.0x over 2025 and 2026. As of March 17, the company had
USD258 million in cash, in addition to USD58 million in undrawn
committed credit facilities.
Fitch's base case estimates that the company will be FCF positive
between 2025 and 2027 while maintaining a minimum cash balance of
USD50 million.
Gas Prices Trending Up: On March 18, 2025, Fitch raised its Title
Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions for 2025 and Henry
Hub (HH) assumptions for 2025-2026 to $12/mcf and $3.25/mcf, from
$11.0/mcf and $2.5/mcf, respectively. HH price assumptions reflect
higher year-to-date prices due to cold weather and significant
depletion of gas storages, coupled with increasing demand in LNG
markets, leading to higher exports. The TTF increase also considers
the winter effect and early storage depletion in Europe, requiring
greater purchases from the market to replenish reserves.
PLNG's SPA average steadily increased through 2024, averaging $8.46
per Tbtu in 4Q24, compared to $5.84/Tbtu in 1Q24, an increase of
45%.
Deleverage Capacity: Although PLNG's earnings and leverage are
highly volatile, the current market conditions are favorable for
deleveraging. Fitch forecasts EBITDA leverage to be around 4.0x in
FY2025, driven by improved demand dynamics and stable sales volume.
With a projected sales volume of 206 Tbtu, EBITDA is expected to
reach USD170 million in FY2025. The SPA restricts revenue growth
and heightens commodity price risk, with 55% of revenue tied to HH
prices. However, the remaining revenue can be directed to
higher-priced markets like NBP and JKM. The HH-indexed volume will
decrease to 41% in 2026 and will be eliminated thereafter.
Strategic Asset in the Country: PLNG is a strategic asset for Peru,
supporting continued gas development in the country. As of FY2024,
the Peruvian government received close to USD1.6 billion in natural
gas exports from Block 56 in the Camisea field. The company has no
domestic competitors given the high investment barriers to entry
and the gas supply agreement (GSA) that effectively grants it
exclusive rights to much of the country's exportable gas supply,
allocated from the prolific low-cost operations of Block 56 and
Block 57.
Standalone Approach: Fitch believes there is potential for
increased backing as PLNG has generally received timely support
from its shareholders. The shareholder agreement shows a commitment
to maintaining PLNG's viability through contract clauses, capital
injections, or subordinated loans. In 3Q24, MidOcean Vicuna
Holdings Ltd. (MidOcean) acquired an additional 15% stake from Hunt
Consolidated Inc. (Hunt), raising its total interest in PLNG to
35%.
Peer Analysis
PLNG has limited regional peers. Even outside of Latin America,
liquified natural gas (LNG) plants tend to operate on a more purely
take-or-pay, capacity-based tolling business model, whereas PLNG
incorporates commodity price risk, resulting in a volatile
financial profile. Tolling-based peers such as Transportadora de
Gas del Peru S.A. (TGP; BBB+/Stable) and GNL Quintero S.A. (GNLQ;
A-/Stable) benefit from the related cash flow stability afforded by
their revenue structures.
GNLQ's leverage is expected to continue to decrease annually as the
company's outstanding notes amortize, projected to fall below 1.5x
by 2026. TGP's leverage is anticipated to follow a similar trend,
while PLNG's leverage should be around 3.5x in 2026.
TGP's revenue is derived from long-term ship-or-pay contracts to
transport natural gas and natural gas liquids from the country's
main gas production formation, Camisea, to the main consumption
area and export terminal.
Similar to GNLQ, PLNG is considered a strategic asset for the
country. However, while GNLQ handles the liquefaction from imported
natural gas in Chile, PLNG is the main infrastructure allowing Peru
to export natural gas.
Key Assumptions
- Fitch's gas price deck for HH at USD3.25/mcf by YE 2025,
USD3.0/mcf in 2026, and long-term price at USD2.75/mcf;
- Fitch's gas price deck for TTF at USD12.0/mcf by YE 2025,
USD8.0/mcf in 2026 and USD7.00/mcf in 2027, and long-term price at
USD5.00/mcf;
- HH-indexed destinations receive 55% of shipments in 2025 and 41%
in 2026, and that does not apply from 2027 onward. Remainder
volumes evenly distributed between European and Asian indexed
destinations;
- Minimum YE cash balance of USD50 million over the rating
horizon;
- Exported volumes at 206 Tbtu in 2025 and 200 Tbtu on average
between 2026 and 2027;
- Average plant efficiency of 91% for the rating horizon;
- Transportation costs annually adjusted by the U.S. Producer Price
Index;
- Annual capex of USD16 million in 2025 and average of USD12
million between 2026 and 2028;
- No dividend payments and/or any other shareholder distributions
between 2025 and 2027.
Recovery Analysis
The Liquidation Value (LV) approach usually involves discounting
the book value of balance sheet assets and summing the results to
estimate the total asset liquidation proceeds in a hypothetical
liquidation process.
The recovery analysis assumes that PLNG would be liquidated in an
event of bankruptcy rather than continue as a going concern (GC).
This assumption is driven by the high book value of PLNG's assets
as the LNG plant is the main infrastructure allowing Peru to export
natural gas and has several years of useful life left, absent
large-scale investment needs.
Fitch bases its recovery ratings on FY24 reported accounts.
- Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim;
- 20% cut to adjusted net inventory, as Fitch anticipates potential
for lower recovery;
- 20% cut to net property, plant and equipment;
- 20% cut to account receivables.
The above assumptions result in a recovery rate assumption within
the 'RR2' range for the senior unsecured notes. Due to the 'RR4'
cap for Peru's corporates, Fitch limits the recovery for the senior
unsecured bond at 'RR4' despite a higher projected recovery.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Material disruptions in gas supply or other operational outages
eroding the company's cash flow generation;
- Dividend payments and/or any kind of shareholder distributions
impacting liquidity;
- Sustained negative FCF;
- Cash available below USD50 million;
- EBITDA leverage above 6.0x over the rating horizon;
- EBITDA interest coverage below 1.25x.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Amendments to contracts that would reduce price and volume risk,
similar to its tolling-based peers in the region;
- Sustained and material shareholder support such as capital
injections, guarantees or other financial backing;
- Liquidity ratio consistently above 1.25x over the rating
horizon;
- Consistent track record of built up cash over the rating horizon
with EBITDA interest coverage consistently over 5.0x;
- Hedge strategy to mitigate the company's exposure to commodity
price risk;
- Greater visibility on medium- to long-term re-contracting
options.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of December 2024, PLNG had USD102 million in cash on hand and
USD48 million available under a working capital facility due in
2027, while facing USD156 million in short-term debt maturities, of
which the company paid USD78 million plus USD23 million in
interests on March 20, 2025. Fitch estimates that FCF should
average USD118 million between 2025 and 2026 based on its price
deck scenarios. Fitch estimates that cash and equivalents
available, in addition to FCF in 2025 and in 2026, will cover debt
obligations by 1.1x on average.
In February 2025, the company signed an additional committed credit
line for USD10 million which is fully available. Also, the company
has access of up to USD60 million in cash support from its SPA in
low-price environments.
Issuer Profile
Established in 2003, PLNG operates a 4.5 million mtpa gas
liquefaction plant, a marine terminal, and a 408 km pipeline
transporting natural gas from the Camisea fields to the coast.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
PERU LNG S.R.L. LT IDR B Affirmed B
LC LT IDR B Affirmed B
senior unsecured LT B Affirmed RR4 B
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: PM Prioritises Forex Allocation
--------------------------------------------------
Peter Christopher at Trinidad and Tobago Guardian reports that
newly minted Prime Minister Stuart Young will meet the Banking
sector concerning the allocation of foreign exchange to the
public.
The Prime Minister made the announcement during the post-Cabinet
news conference, at which he said new Minister of Finance Vishnu
Dhanpaul would also be a part of the meeting, according to Trinidad
and Tobago Guardian.
The report notes that he said, "I have invited the Central Bank and
the Bankers Association of Trinidad and Tobago, and I'm hoping all
the CEOs, the chief executive officers of the banks that operate in
Trinidad and Tobago, to meet with myself, the Minister of Finance
right here at White Hall. I intend to address immediately, and it
will happen soon, the issue of foreign exchange and forex, and
allocation of forex as one of the first items on my list of
priorities."
"After that meeting, you all will then be told in a transparent
manner what was the outcome of that meeting. I intend to raise at
that meeting, this issue of foreign exchange, and how it is that we
can address the foreign exchange. The fact is that we have less
foreign exchange than we used to. That is the fact of life.
However, how do we look at the allocation of the foreign exchange
that is available to us, amongst our citizens of Trinidad and
Tobago," he said, the report relays.
In the wake of the announcement, Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of
Industry and Commerce, president Kiran Maharaj said, "We are happy
that the Prime Minister has called such a meeting as it signals
that he is placing priority on the matter."
However, she asked that a similar meeting be held with business
groups as the T&T Chamber has long expressed its own concerns about
the issue, the report discloses.
The chamber president said the Chamber had also made previous
recommendations to former Finance Minister Colm Imbert, which she
encouraged the Prime Minister to review, the report says.
The Chaguanas Chamber of Commerce said it welcomed the
announcement. In a statement sent by Chamber President Baldath
Maharaj, the group called for greater clarity concerning the
allocation of foreign exchange while expressing concern that SMEs
remained disadvantaged by the distribution of foreign currency, the
report notes.
The statement said, "This lack of oversight has created an
environment where banks, receiving forex from the Central Bank,
seem to be prioritizing their own profit margins rather than
ensuring fair and equitable distribution. Many businesses continue
to report difficulties in accessing foreign currency, forcing them
to resort to costly alternatives that further strain their
operations," the report relays.
The call for clarity was also shared by Trinidad and Tobago
Automotive Dealers Association president Visham Babwah, who noted
that there needed to be more transparency concerning the
distribution by commercial banks, the report discloses. "It still
comes down to the commercial banks, when they distribute the forex
that they receive. This is where a lot of the concern comes from.
there is where the emphasis should be placed," he said.
It is not the first time the Government has proposed a meeting with
stakeholders concerning the matter. In November, former Finance
Minister Colm Imbert announced plans to consult with stakeholders
on changing the method of allocating foreign exchange to address
concerns of SMEs, the report adds.
=================
V E N E Z U E L A
=================
CITGO PETROLEUM: Contrarian Unit's $3.7B Bid Faces Opposition
-------------------------------------------------------------
Caroline Simson at law360.com reports that the special master
overseeing the sale of Citgo's parent company to satisfy billions
of dollars of Venezuelan debt is recommending a federal judge
proceed with a floor-setting bid of $3.699 billion submitted by an
affiliate of Contrarian Capital Management with the recommendation
already meeting resistance.
Citgo Petroleum Corporation is a United States-based refiner,
transporter and marketer of transportation fuels, lubricants,
petrochemicals and other industrial products. Based in Houston,
Texas, Citgo is majority-owned by PDVSA, a state-owned company of
the Venezuelan government (although due to U.S. sanctions, in
2019, they no longer economically benefit from Citgo.)
Fitch Ratings, in early October 2024, affirmed the Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of CITGO Petroleum Corp. (CITGO, or
Opco) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook and the IDR of CITGO Holding,
Inc. (Holdco) at 'CCC+'. Fitch also affirmed Opco's existing
senior
secured notes and industrial revenue bonds at 'BB'/'RR1'. S&P
Global Ratings, in June 2022, affirmed its 'B-' long-term issuer
credit ratings on CITGO Holding Inc. and core subsidiary CITGO
Petroleum Corp.
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
JAMAICA: MSMEs Urged to Cash in on Government Contracts
-------------------------------------------------------
Codie-Ann Barrett at Jamaica Observer reports that ICRO, small, and
medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are being encouraged to take
advantage of government procurement opportunities and secure their
share of the multi-billion-dollar market.
Chief public procurement policy officer at the Ministry of Finance
Andre Bennett emphasised the need for wider participation, noting
that a significant portion of government spending is concentrated
among a small group of businesses, according to Jamaica Observer.
"We're spending this big chunk of money, 30-40 per cent of gross
domestic product, amounting to somewhere close to US$5 billion
every year, and we're spending it with just a few people in the
country," Bennett announced during a recent Jamaica Business
Development Corporation (JBDC) Virtual Biz Zone Webinar, the report
notes.
Public procurement refers to the process by which governments and
public sector entities acquire goods, services, and works using
public funds. In highlighting key steps MSMEs should take to
successfully bid for government contracts, Bennett first turned to
where businesses can find these opportunities citing major
newspapers and the Government of Jamaica's Electronic Procurement
(GOJEP) platform, the report says. He encouraged businesses to
register on the GOJEP website, where they can identify available
contracts and the range of products and services the Government is
seeking, the report notes. To illustrate the diversity of
procurement needs, he cited examples such as nuclear power research
equipment and toner cartridges for printers, the report discloses.
However, Bennett cautioned businesses to carefully review
solicitation documents before submitting bids, ensuring compliance
with eligibility and qualification criteria such as tax compliance
and Public Procurement Commission (PPC) registration, the report
relays. These requirements, he explained, help the Government
assess potential reputational risks when awarding contracts, the
report discloses.
"Government says, 'Okay, we do not award contracts to anyone that
does not pay taxes'. And I think that's sensible," Bennett stated.
MSMEs that fail to register with the PPC are automatically
ineligible to receive contracts, the report says. Additionally,
submitting competitive offers is critical, as procurement entities
must evaluate multiple bids to determine the best option based on
cost and value for money, the report notes.
"You're not going to make them an offer that they can't refuse," he
said, notes the report. "First of all, you need to offer the best
possible price. We are not in the business of robbing you. The
Government understands that the economy works when you calculate
the risk in supplying the particular thing. You make a profit, and
we love when you get rich," he added.
While stressing the importance of pricing goods and services at
fair market value, he warned against lowballing offers, as
underpricing could result in implementation risks and failure to
meet contractual obligations, the report notes. Bennett also urged
businesses to submit only the required documents, noting that some
procurement entities strictly enforce guidelines, the report says.
Submitting unnecessary documents can delay evaluations and extend
the time required to award contracts. Bennett advised businesses to
ensure all required forms are properly signed and that bids are
submitted on time, the report relays.
"GOJEP will lock you out," he warned. "Once you reach the cut-off
time, that's it - you won't be able to access the submission
page."
He also noted that during high-traffic periods, the system may
experience technical glitches, making early submission a safer
option, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a
positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the
Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured
ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1
from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to
positive.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
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Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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