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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Friday, October 24, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 213
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
PETROQUIMICA COMODORO: Fitch Affirms 'B-' IDRs, Outlook Stable
B E R M U D A
SEADRILL LIMITED: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
B R A Z I L
AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES: Fitch Lowers Currency IDRs to D
C O L O M B I A
RUTA AL MAR: Fitch Lowers Rating on UVR Secured Notes to 'B'
C O S T A R I C A
COSTA RICA: S&P Hikes Sovereign Credit Ratings to 'BB'
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: BOJ Intervenes in Forex Market With US$30 Million
P U E R T O R I C O
CABALLITO LLC: Hires JPC Law Office as Legal Counsel
MUNDO EDITORIAL: Hires HDC Tax Services as Financial Consultant
SUNNOVA ENERGY: Puerto Rico Dealers Object to Bankruptcy Plan
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A R G E N T I N A
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PETROQUIMICA COMODORO: Fitch Affirms 'B-' IDRs, Outlook Stable
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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia S.A.'s
(PCR) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings
(IDR) at 'B-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
PCR's ratings reflect its limited oil production, concentrated
cement business in Argentina's Patagonia region and exposure to
Argentine electric industry regulatory risk. PCR's risk from
operating in Argentina is partially offset by its Ecuadorian oil
operations, which cover its hard-currency consolidated interest
expense. Fitch estimates that PCR's ex-Argentine EBITDA will cover
this expense over the rated horizon, mitigating the impact of
capital controls.
Key Rating Drivers
Small Production Profile: PCR's ratings reflect its small and
concentrated production profile of below 20,000 barrels of oil
equivalent per day (boed), aligning with the low end of the 'B'
rating category. The company holds exploration and production
interest in 11 blocks in Argentina and six in Ecuador. Its proven
reserves (1P) and production are concentrated in Argentina at 69%
and 48%, and Ecuador at 31% and 52%, respectively. The addition of
new operations in recent years increased PCR's 1P reserves to 28
million boed from 17 million boed the previous year. The next
rating category requires production above 45,000 boed and proved
reserves exceeding 400 million boed.
Diversified Business Profile: PCR has a diversified business
profile across three operating segments. In 2026, PCR's EBITDA is
estimated at around USD200 million, with oil and gas accounting for
49%, renewables for 45%, and cement for 6%. The renewables segment
has moderate exposure to Compania Administradora del Mercado
Mayorista Electrico Sociedad Anonima (CAMMESA), which accounts for
about 60% of renewables revenue.
Oil and gas production is expected to remain constant at around
18,000 boed, while the company will expand its renewables capacity
by around 250MW, including a new 180MW wind farm. Fitch projects
the renewables segment EBITDA will increase to average 48% of total
EBITDA, up from 37% over the last three fiscal years.
Adequate Leverage: Fitch expects PCR's USD-denominated gross
leverage, defined as total debt to EBITDA, to average 3.3x over the
rating horizon. Fitch expects increased debt should help fund capex
for the new renewable capacity and continued drilling, primarily in
the new Llancanelo area. Fitch estimates PCR's consolidated debt at
approximately USD584 million at YE 2025. Fitch estimates
EBITDA-to-interest expense above 5.0x throughout the rating
horizon.
Geographic Diversification: Fitch forecasts EBITDA from Ecuador to
cover hard-currency debt service by at least 2.5x over the rating
horizon. Accordingly, the applicable country ceiling for PCR is
Ecuador's 'B', not Argentina's 'B-'. The Ecuadorian operation could
play a larger role in the rating if its production and reserves
exceed thresholds for the rating category. Ecuador's production is
slightly higher than Argentina's at 52% as of 2Q25, compared to 47%
at 3Q24. Fitch expects Ecuador's future production to be on par
with Argentina's.
Peer Analysis
PCR's peers in Argentina, Capex S.A. and Pampa Energia S.A., also
rated 'B-'/Stable, derive most of their revenue from energy and
electricity. Pampa and Capex have majority electricity revenue
exposed to CAMMESA while PCR's is more evenly split through private
clients in the MATER program.
PCR's business profile also compares with that of other small
independent Latin American oil producers. Ratings for GeoPark
Limited (B+/Stable) SierraCol Energy Limited (B+/Stable), Frontera
Energy Corporation (B/Stable), and Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
(B+/Stable) are all constrained to the 'B' category because of the
inherent operational risks associated with the small scale and low
diversification of their oil and gas production. Over the rating
horizon, Fitch expects PCR's production will reach 18,000 boed in
2026, higher than Capex's 17,500 boed and lower than SierraCol's
expected production of 45,000 boed, Frontera's 42,000 boed, Gran
Tierra's 50,000 boed, and Pampa's 100,000 boed.
Capex is the company's closest peer in Argentina and, like PCR, is
an integrated oil and gas production and generation company.
Key Assumptions
- Fitch's end-of-period USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,756.36 in 2025,
2,214.78 in 2026 and 2,613.44 in 2027;
- Fitch's average foreign USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,190.67 in
2025, 1,985.57 in 2026 and 2,414.11 in 2027;
- Average working interest production of 18,000 boed in 2025-2028;
- Fitch's price deck for Brent crude oil per barrel of USD70 in
2025, USD65 in 2026 and 2027, and USD60 in 2028;
- Growth in cement sales linked to Fitch's real GDP growth
expectations for Argentina;
- Capex of USD553 million in 2025-2027, with an annual average of
USD184 million;
- Average dividends of USD10 million paid yearly in 2025-2028;
- Installed capacity of 545MW in 2025-2026 and 787MW in 2027-2028;
- Renewables have 98% availability and a 46% capacity factor at a
monomic price of USD53/MWh over the rating horizon;
- CAMMESA/FODER payments are made on time.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:
- Sustained net production below 16,000 boed;
- Material delay in CAMMESA/FODER payments that materially affects
working capital;
- A sustained deterioration of credit metrics to total debt/EBITDA
of 4.0x or more;
- Weakening liquidity.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:
- Net production of 45,000 boed while maintaining 1P reserve life
of at least seven years;
- Sustain total debt to EBITDA of 3.0x over the rating horizon.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
PCR reported a cash balance around USD133 million as of 2Q25, with
USD100 million held outside of Argentina. Fitch believes a strong
cash balance and cash flow from operations will enable the company
to adequately cover its interest expense and upcoming maturities.
Additionally, Fitch believes the company's maturity profile is
manageable and that it has strong access to local banks in the
event it needs additional liquidity.
Issuer Profile
PCR is an Argentine independent energy company focused on three
main activities: the exploration and production of hydrocarbons,
the production and distribution of cement and construction
materials, and renewable power generation.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Petroquimica Comodoro
Rivadavia S.A. LT IDR B- Affirmed B-
LC LT IDR B- Affirmed B-
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B E R M U D A
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SEADRILL LIMITED: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Seadrill Limited's and Seadrill Finance
Limited's (collectively Seadrill) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) at 'B+'. Fitch has also affirmed the RCF at 'BB+' with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR1' and the senior secured second lien note at
'BB-'/'RR3'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Seadrill's rating reflects its low leverage, strong liquidity
profile, and well-positioned ultra-deepwater fleet. The company has
good revenue visibility, supported by strong contract coverage and
a $2.5 billion backlog as of August 2025. Fitch expects average day
rates for the company to increase in 2026 and 2027 as legacy
contracts begin to roll off and new contracts are negotiated at
higher rates. These strengths are offset by volatility in
utilization and day rates inherent to the offshore drilling
market.
The Stable Outlook reflects an expectation of conservative
financial management along with broadly improved to stable day
rates in the near term.
Key Rating Drivers
Conservative Financial Policy: Seadrill's conservative financial
policy supports the rating. The company prioritizes balance sheet
strength with a net leverage at or below 1.0x and no near-term
maturities. Seadrill has used equity funding for growth and used
divestitures to reduce debt and fund share repurchases. The
company has paused shareholder returns amid 2025 market
uncertainty. Fitch expects returns to increase as conditions
improve. Fitch expects Seadrill to maintain a disciplined,
conservative approach to capital allocation.
Backlog Supports Revenue Visibility: Seadrill's backlog of $2.5
billion (as of August 6) supports revenue visibility within the
volatile offshore drilling market. The company expects to convert
$500 million of this backlog into revenue through the remainder of
2025, $800 million in 2026, and $1.2 billion between 2027 and 2029.
The company has added $1.3 billion of backlog from six contract
awards between December 2024 and August 2025. Fitch expects
Seadrill to continue to be able to win contracts at supportive
rates given tight supply in the global offshore market.
Favorable Long-Term Contracts; Pricing: Fitch views Seadrill's
ability to win new contracts and renegotiate existing ones at
higher prices as a credit positive. Seadrill announced two
three-year contracts in Brazil that begin in 2026, repriced to
about $450,000/day, compared with legacy contracts at $261,000/day
and $246,000/day. Seadrill was also recently awarded two contracts
for its joint venture with Sonangol, which begin in late 2025.
Average drillship day rates have increased to $351,000/day in 2Q25,
from $306,000/day in 2Q24, supporting elevated earnings potential
in 2026 and beyond.
Strong Offshore Ultra-Deepwater Fleet: Seadrill's large and diverse
offshore fleet supports the rating. The company owns 15 rigs,
including 10 drillships and two semi-submersible rigs, two
harsh-environment semi-submersible rigs and one harsh-environment
jack-up rig. The company also manages two rigs on behalf of
Sonangol EP. Seadrill operates in all major offshore oil and gas
basins, including the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Brazil
(BB/Stable), West Africa, the North Sea and Southeast Asia.
Customer Concentration: Seadrill's backlog is significantly
concentrated with Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras; BB/Stable),
ConocoPhillips (A/Stable) and Equinor ASA. Concentration risk is
offset due to the credit strength and long-term relationships of
these counterparties. Seadrill recently signed a contract with
Murphy Oil Corporation, expanding their customer base. Seadrill
aims to expand its ultra-deepwater opportunities within the Golden
Triangle to achieve economies of scale through rig clustering in
these regions.
Peer Analysis
Seadrill is the smallest offshore company in terms of revenue and
EBITDA compared to peers Noble Corporation plc (BB-/Stable) and
Valaris Limited (B+/Stable). Fitch expects Seadrill to have similar
margins to Valaris, but lower margins than Noble Corp. Seadrill is
forecast to have the lowest leverage out of its offshore peers
throughout the forecast period.
Seadrill's onshore peers include Nabors Industries, Ltd.
(B-/Stable) and Precision Drilling Corporation (BB-/Stable), which
are more stable than the offshore segment. Nabors is larger than
Seadrill and has higher margins but is significantly more
leveraged. Fitch expects Precision to generate similar revenue,
margins and leverage compared to Seadrill over the forecast
period.
Key Assumptions
- Brent oil price at $70 per barrel (bbl) in 2025, $65/bbl in
2026-2027 and $60/bbl thereafter;
- Revenue declines in 2025, followed by modest growth in 2026 and
further growth in 2027, followed by declines thereafter;
- EBITDA margins maintained in the mid to high 20% range in 2025
and 2026 and improving in 2027 driven by renegotiated contracts at
favorable rates;
- Capex in line with management expectations;
- No mergers and acquisitions or dividends.
Recovery Analysis
Key Recovery Rating Assumptions
The recovery analysis assumes that Seadrill Limited would be
reorganized as a going-concern in bankruptcy rather than
liquidated. Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
Going Concern Approach
Seadrill's going concern (GC) EBITDA estimate reflects Fitch's view
of a sustainable, post-reorganization EBITDA level, which forms the
basis for the enterprise valuation. The GC EBITDA assumption for
commodity price-sensitive issuers at a cyclical peak indicates the
industry's shift from top-of-the-cycle commodity prices to
mid-cycle conditions and increased competitive dynamics.
The GC EBITDA assumption reflects a loss of customers and lower
margins because exploration and production companies cut costs. The
EBITDA assumption also incorporates weak offshore drilling market
fundamentals and overall high rig supply but improving demand. The
assumption accounts for the material decrease in the company's
liabilities and the write down in the value of the company's
property, plant and equipment (PP&E) after the debt restructuring.
Seadrill eliminated $5.0 billion of pre-petition debt from its
balance sheet after exiting bankruptcy procedures in 2022.
An enterprise value multiple of 5.5x EBITDA is applied to the GC
EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganization enterprise value. The
choice of this multiple considers the following factors:
- Peer energy oilfield services companies in historical bankruptcy
case studies show exit multiples with a wide range and a median of
6.5x. The oilfield service subsector ranges from 2.2x to 17.0x due
to the more volatile nature of EBITDA swings during downturns.
- Fitch applies a multiple of 5.5x to estimate the enterprise value
of Seadrill due to concerns about a prolonged downturn, high
exposure to offshore drilling rigs with significant demand
volatility, and continued capital investment needed to reactivate
rigs.
Liquidation Approach
The liquidation estimate reflects Fitch's assessment of the value
of balance sheet assets that can be realized in sale or liquidation
during bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings and distributed to
creditors.
Fitch assigns standard discounts to the liquidation value of the
company's cash, accounts receivable, inventory and PP&E. Despite
the material write down on the company's PP&E, Fitch still uses a
15% liquidation value based on the company's 2Q25 book value due to
the high uncertainty of asset valuations during a downturn.
The $225 million first lien secured RCF is assumed to be fully
drawn upon default and holds the most senior position among the
claims.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Deteriorating market fundamentals, such as decreasing day rates
and offshore rig utilization;
- A significant increase in gross debt;
- Weakening liquidity;
- Mid-cycle EBITDA leverage above 3.0x.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Sustainably stronger offshore drilling market fundamentals,
including high day rates, longer contracts and a growing backlog;
- A track record of conservative financial policy that keeps gross
debt in check;
- Mid-cycle EBITDA leverage below 2.0x.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Seadrill has comfortable liquidity with $393 million of
unrestricted cash and full availability on its $225 million RCF
that expires in 2028. The company is expected to generate negative
FCF in 2025 given capex and lower activity. Fitch expects FCF
generation to turn positive in 2026, which will further support
liquidity.
Seadrill's outstanding debt consists of a $50 million convertible
note due in 2028 and a $575 million second lien note due in 2030.
Fitch views refining risk as limited for the company.
Issuer Profile
Seadrill Limited is an ultra-deepwater offshore drilling contractor
that owns and operates drillships, semisubmersible rigs and jackup
rigs for operations in shallow, mid, deep and ultra-deepwater
areas, as well as in benign and harsh environments.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Seadrill Limited has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Waste &
Hazardous Materials Management; Ecological Impacts due to the risk
that a possible offshore oil spill may affect the drilling company,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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Seadrill Finance
Limited LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
senior secured LT BB+ Affirmed RR1 BB+
Senior Secured
2nd Lien LT BB- Affirmed RR3 BB-
Seadrill Limited LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
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B R A Z I L
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AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES: Fitch Lowers Currency IDRs to D
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ambipar Participacoes e
Empreendimentos S.A.'s (Ambipar) Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer
Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'D' from 'C', and the National Long-Term
Rating and its rated subsidiaries to 'D(bra)' from 'C(bra)'. Fitch
has also downgraded the national long-term senior unsecured ratings
on the issuances from Ambipar and its rated subsidiaries to
'D(bra)' from 'C(bra)' and affirmed the senior unsecured issuances
of subsidiary Ambipar Lux S.a.r.l. at 'C' with a Recovery Rating of
'RR4'.
The downgrade follows the group's filing for judicial
reorganization on Oct. 21, 2025.
Key Rating Drivers
Bankruptcy Protection: Ambipar filed a petition for judicial
reorganization to ensure the group's continued operations. The
holding company and its rated subsidiaries Environmental ESG
Participações S.A. (Environmental) and Emergência
Participações S.A. (Emergência) requested protection under the
judicial reorganization regime in Rio de Janeiro. The other
subsidiary Ambipar Emergency Response (holding with majority direct
participation on Emergência) also filed for protection under
United States Bankruptcy Code (Chapter 11) in Houston.
Governance Concerns: Fitch considers Ambipar's recent governance
shortfalls, reflecting limited transparency around its financial
strategy and a series of recent governance shortcomings, including
the late filing of a subsidiary's 20-F, an ongoing administrative
process from Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and limited
transparency in recent accounting figures and financial policy.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that Ambipar would be considered a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy and that the company would be
reorganized rather than liquidated. Fitch has assumed a 10%
administrative claim.
Ambipar's GC EBITDA is BRL1.6 billion, reflecting the low end of
expected EBITDA in a distressed financial environment. This
estimate represents Fitch's view of a sustainable,
post-reorganization EBITDA level used to value the company. Fitch
applies a 5.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, reflecting the company's market
position and business model.
Fitch applies a waterfall analysis to the post-default EV based on
the relative claims of the debt in the capital structure. The debt
waterfall assumptions consider the company's total debt as of June
30, 2025. These assumptions result in a recovery rate for its total
debt within the 'RR3' range. However, due to the soft cap of Brazil
at 'RR4', Ambipar's debt issuances are rated 'C'/'RR4'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Negative rating actions are not possible as the company is at the
lowest level of the rating scale.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Fitch will reassess the IDRs upon the completion of the group's
debt reorganization.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Ambipar's financial flexibility deteriorated sharply due to recent
events. Fitch has limited visibility into the company's cash
position. On June 2025, total debt and short-term debt was BRL11.1
billion and BRL957 million, respectively, versus an adjusted cash
balance position of BRL4.1 billion.
Issuer Profile
Ambipar provides environmental services in Latin America (primarily
in Brazil), the U.S., Canada and the U.K. It operates in two main
segments: response (mitigating and preventing environmental damage
from accidents) and environment (managing and recovering industrial
waste from private clients).
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Ambipar Participacoes e Empreendimentos S.A. has an ESG Relevance
Score of '5' for Financial Transparency due to governance
shortfalls, which has a negative impact on the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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Ambipar Lux
S.a.r.l.
senior
unsecured LT C Affirmed RR4 C
Environmental ESG
Participacoes S.A. Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
senior
unsecured Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
Ambipar
Participacoes e
Empreendimentos S.A. LT IDR D Downgrade C
LC LT IDR D Downgrade C
Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
senior
unsecured Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
Emergencia
Participacoes S.A. Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
senior unsecured Natl LT D(bra) Downgrade C(bra)
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C O L O M B I A
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RUTA AL MAR: Fitch Lowers Rating on UVR Secured Notes to 'B'
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Fitch Ratings has downgraded P.A. Concesión Ruta al Mar's (Ruta al
Mar) UVR-denominated senior secured notes due in 2044 to 'B' from
'BB-' and to 'BBB+(col)' from 'A+(col)'. The ratings have been
placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).
The downgrade reflects prolonged delays in resolving completion
issues pending since 2018. These delays have reduced Ruta al Mar's
payment capacity and severely weakened its credit profile. The
issues center on recovering forgone revenue at the La Caimanera
toll plaza and resolving Liability Exoneration Events (LEEs) in
Functional Units (UFs) 2, 6, 7, and 8. These matters have
constrained asset progress and blocked the release of significant
trapped cash tied to those UFs.
Under Fitch's case assumptions, cash shortfalls will occur on
upcoming payment dates. Fitch believes the company will initially
cover these shortfalls with internal liquidity and by drawing
letters of credit (LOCs) that support equity commitments. Without
corrective measures the transaction could default on its financial
obligations by August 2027.
The RWN reflects uncertainty about the project's near-term ability
to address these challenges and reverse its current trajectory.
Fitch expects greater clarity the ongoing arbitration concludes,
likely in early 2026, and once the effects on short-term liquidity
and any potential restructuring of Tranche A debt are clearer.
RATING RATIONALE
The rating reflects Ruta al Mar's residual completion risk and
delays in resolving issues and executing contractual compensation
mechanisms. The project is a demand-based toll road with a diverse,
mid-sized reference market that connects central Colombia to the
northern coast. Its rate-setting mechanism adjusts toll rates
annually for inflation, subject to grantor's approval. The debt
structure is adequate despite back-loading and a bullet-payment
structure for one senior tranche. The structure includes prepayment
mechanisms triggered by traffic underperformance or outperformance,
based on defined thresholds.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Revenue Risk - Volume - Midrange
Ruta al Mar serves a diverse, mid-sized reference market in
Antioquia, Córdoba, Sucre and Bolívar. It connects central
Colombia to the northern coast and plays a major role in the
broader road network. Most users are commuter or tourist light
vehicles. Heavier vehicle volume should rise once the construction
concludes. The road should outperform other competing routes given
its higher specifications and average cost to end users.
Revenue Risk - Price - Midrange
Tariffs are legally adjusted by inflation on an annual basis
according to the concession agreement. Toll rates are moderate, and
the government applies differential tariffs to specific vehicle
categories at some toll stations.
Infrastructure Dev. & Renewal - Midrange
The project depends on a moderately developed capital and
maintenance plan funded from project cash flows only. The
independent engineer (IE) believes the O&M plan, organizational
structure and budget are reasonable and in line with similar
projects in Colombia. There is a six-month, forward-looking reserve
equal to the O&M costs projected to be incurred during the next six
months, and a major maintenance reserve account equivalent to the
maximum six-month major maintenance payment amount scheduled for
the next 60 months.
Debt Structure - 1 - Midrange
All debt is senior pari passu and is denominated either in UVR or
COP. All the tranches are fully amortizing but one, which has a
bullet payment. Interest payments for all tranches are indexed to
inflation. The amortization profile is backloaded with over 50% of
total debt repayment concentrated on the last four years of their
respective tenors. Structural features include a six-month DSRA, a
lock-up test for dividends distribution, and mechanisms that are
triggered in scenarios of traffic under- and over-performance.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Further prolonged or adverse outcomes on pending LEEs and on the
Caimanera toll booth issue, including the current legal dispute,
without adequate liquid compensation, which could weaken debt
service capacity;
- No visibility on a debt restructuring for Tranche A in the short
term, that could weaken debt service capacity through 2027.
- Failure to significantly improve liquidity by 1H2026 such that
short-term obligations could be fully funded, including timely
equity letters of credit renovation;
- Traffic performance consistently below 31,000 annual average
daily traffic (AADT) in 2026 and 32,000 in 2027;
- O&M and/or major maintenance expenses above 10% of the budget.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- A positive rating action is unlikely in the short term, given the
Rating Watch Negative. However, the Rating Watch could be removed
if Fitch considers liquidity is sufficient to cover debt service
through 2027.
SECURITY
Ruta al Mar is a public-private partnership concession based on a
private initiative. The main purpose of the project is to develop a
primary route with high performance specifications to ensure the
Antioquia-Bolivar connection and link the center and south of the
country with the northern coast. The project consists of the
construction, improvement and operation of a 491km long toll road
located in Antioquia, Cordoba, Sucre and Bolivar, in Colombia.
ESG Considerations
P. A. Concesion Ruta al Mar has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Social impacts as Caimanera toll plaza was affected by social
disturbances in surrounding communities and was not effectively
installed, resulting in a revenue shortfall for the project that
has not been compensated by the grantor since 2Q24 , which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
P. A. Concesion
Ruta al Mar
P. A. Concesion
Ruta al Mar/Toll
Revenues - First
Lien/1 LT LT B Downgrade BB-
P. A. Concesion
Ruta al Mar/Toll
Revenues - First
Lien/1 Natl LT Natl LT BBB+(col) Downgrade A+(col)
===================
C O S T A R I C A
===================
COSTA RICA: S&P Hikes Sovereign Credit Ratings to 'BB'
------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Oct. 22, 2025, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Costa Rica to 'BB'
from 'BB-'. The outlook is stable. In addition, S&P affirmed its
'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings.
S&P also revised upward the transfer and convertibility assessment
to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'.
Outlook
S&P said, "The stable outlook incorporates our expectations of
Costa Rica's broad continuity in its key economic policies after
next year's elections. We also assume that the export-driven
economic dynamism should continue to help fiscal consolidation and
stabilize the government's debt burden. The outlook also
incorporates our expectation that delays in obtaining approval for
external borrowing from the Legislative Assembly could strain the
domestic debt market."
Downside scenario
S&P could lower the rating in the next 12-18 months if persistent
delays in accessing external borrowing were to lead to significant
pressures on the domestic capital markets. Furthermore, an economic
slowdown among Costa Rica's key trading partners, external shocks,
or insecurity weighing on its balance-of-payments position and
economic performance could lead to a downgrade.
Upside scenario
S&P said, "We could raise the ratings in the next 12-18 months if
improved policy coordination between the executive and the
legislative branches of government were to lessen the long-standing
political obstacles to pass reform legislation. We could also raise
the rating if Costa Rica's economy were to grow consistently above
those of peers, gradually increasing its per capita income."
Rationale
S&P's ratings on Costa Rica reflect the country's stable democracy
and political institutions, solid checks and balances, and
prosperous standard of living compared with those of regional
peers. Although special tax incentives that the government provides
to companies in Costa Rica's free zones continue to spur economic
growth, the comparatively greater dependence on the non-free zone
economy for tax revenue weighs upon long-term fiscal stability.
The 'BB' ratings also incorporate the country's political
fragmentation that has, at times, complicated timely legislative
action. External buffers have improved over the past few years,
although Costa Rica's fiscal and debt profiles include spending
rigidities and vulnerabilities related to slow policymaking that
have at times limited the government's access to external
financing. Such obstacles reduce the predictability of debt
management and the government's financial flexibility.
Flexibility and performance profile: Stronger external buffers have
reduced the impact from external shocks, while high interest burden
continues to pressure fiscal consolidation
-- Stronger external buffers, significantly higher international
reserves, narrower current account deficits (CADs), and solid FDI
have bolstered Costa Rica's external position.
-- Fiscal consolidation is on track but faces challenges from
spending pressure and a high interest burden.
-- The country's monetary policy credibility reflects inflation
targeting, but dollarization remains significant and limits the
scope of the policy transmission mechanism.
Costa Rica is increasingly becoming a high-tech manufacturing and
service hub, attracting FDI and high-end tourism. Substantial
dollar inflows from trade, FDI, and some access to borrowings from
the IMF and MLIs have bolstered the country's external buffers.
Costa Rica's international reserves rose to almost $16 billion in
October 2025 from $6 billion-$8 billion during the past decade.
Furthermore, Costa Rica was granted a flexible credit line from the
IMF for $1.5 billion and a contingent credit line from Development
Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean for $500 million, among
other buffers. As a result, S&P forecasts gross external financing
needs to decline to around 95% of current account receipts (CAR)
and usable reserves in the next three years.
The dynamic export sector has also allowed Costa Rica to improve
consistently its external debt profile. Exports have jumped, mainly
in the free-trade zones related mostly to high-tech manufacturing
for electronic and medical devices and services. S&P said, "We
project the country to post CAD of 1%-2% of GDP for the next four
years, fully covered by FDI, estimated at around 4.5% of GDP
annually. As a result, we expect narrow net external debt to
continue falling and average 19% of CARs for the next four years.
Nonetheless, we believe the country remains vulnerable to sudden
shifts in FDI."
Fiscal consolidation remains on track, given that primary surpluses
have been at least 1% of GDP over the past few years. S&P said, "We
expect the annual change in net general government debt to average
3.6% of GDP for the next four years, gradually falling in line with
the government's medium-term fiscal framework. As a result, we
expect net general government debt to slightly increase and remain
just above 60% of GDP for the next four years."
The country's fiscal rule, which imposes a ceiling on spending
growth depending on debt to GDP, has supported fiscal improvement
and served as a policy anchor. If the sovereign were to reduce net
general government debt below 60% of GDP (according to its
definition), this would loosen some restrictions on spending growth
starting in 2026, as established in the fiscal rule. Nevertheless,
interest spending remains high, accounting for about 19% of
government revenue. Debt refinancings have helped reduce the
interest cost of the more expensive domestic debt since 2022,
although it continues to be one of the main constraints on Costa
Rica's efforts to narrow substantially its fiscal deficit.
S&P said, "We expect political fragmentation in the Assembly to
keep constraining timely access to external financing, which
reduces fiscal flexibility. The central government tapped global
markets twice in 2023 for a total of $3 billion out of the $5
billion 2023-2025 authorization. However, the remaining issuances
for up to $2 billion were delayed, given conditions imposed by the
Assembly have not been met. We expect the government to issue
externally after mid-2026 at the earliest, contingent upon the
Assembly's approval.
"In our view, public finances are vulnerable to potential
off-budget claims related to health services provided by the Costa
Rican Social Security Fund in the past, accounting for about 8.5%
of GDP.
"The central bank has maintained its easing cycle and has reduced
the policy rate to 3.5% in September 2025. The bank is seeking to
spur the economy and GDP growth as inflation has hovered around 0%
and even lower over the past few years. We expect inflation to
reach the central bank's target area of 3% in the next three years.
The sovereign rating benefits from the central bank's monetary
policy credibility and execution of its inflation-targeting regime
and exchange-rate flexibility under a managed float."
Institutional and economic profile: Costa Rica is increasingly
becoming a regional hub for services and high-end manufacturing
with relatively stable institutions, albeit with slow policymaking
-- S&P expects GDP growth at 4.2% in 2025, slowing to 3.5% in
2026-2028, driven by free-trade zones.
-- The stability of Costa Rica's political institutions and higher
social standards compare well with those of peers and provide a
solid base to keep attracting investment.
-- Political fragmentation results in slow progress in redressing
long-standing fiscal weaknesses and other meaningful reforms.
Costa Rica's economy has been growing at a healthy pace thanks to
its favorable business climate, stable institutions, and rule of
law, which have bolstered high-end export-oriented manufacturing
(such as medical devices), nearshoring, tourism, and service
industries. However, the dynamism of the free-trade zone and export
sector contrasts with the comparatively slower growth of the
traditional sectors of the economy.
S&P expects Costa Rica's GDP per capita to increase to $18,700 in
2025, from around $12,000 a decade ago. This is partly explained by
the domestic currency's appreciation as a result of hard currency
inflows. Costa Rica's economy has been growing above its long-term
trend growth over the past few years, although we expect that the
current global trade uncertainty and weaker demand from main
trading partners will slow Costa Rica's economic growth to about
3.5% in the next three years.
The rating on Costa Rica benefits from a track record of stable
political institutions and predictable, albeit slow, policymaking.
Social and environmental standards are also generally higher than
those of peers in the region and in similar rating categories.
President Rodrigo Chaves' administration has focused on boosting
growth after the COVID-19 pandemic's peak and strengthening Costa
Rica's fiscal position, reaping the benefits of the 2018 fiscal
reform. However, the president's party--which holds only nine seats
in the 57-seat unicameral Legislative Assembly--has struggled
throughout its term to build alliances. The country's fragmented
decision-making has slowed and, at times, impeded progress on
fiscal measures that have been debated under multiple
administrations.
Presidential and legislative elections in February 2026 (and a
potential second round in April 2026) could reshape the political
landscape for the next few years. However, S&P has seen a trend of
political fragmentation over past elections that could indicate
that any future government will need to negotiate among several
parties in the Assembly to approve legislation.
In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Rating Component Scores above.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.
Ratings List
Upgraded; Outlook Action
To From
Costa Rica
Sovereign Credit Rating BB/Stable/B BB-/Positive/B
Upgraded
To From
Costa Rica
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
Local Currency BBB- BB+
Senior Unsecured BB BB-
=============
J A M A I C A
=============
JAMAICA: BOJ Intervenes in Forex Market With US$30 Million
----------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reported on Oct. 17 that the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ)
intervened in the foreign exchange market with another US$30
million in order to help stabilise the dollar, which fell to an
all-time low of $161.89.
Although the IMF says it must stop intervening in the market so
frequently, the central bank has now drawn down US$590 million from
the net international reserves (NIR) to prop up the dollar since
the start of the year, according to RJR News.
This is the 22nd time since the start of this year that the BOJ has
intervened in the foreign exchange market, the report notes.
The US$30 million pumped into the market was however way below the
amount demanded by authorised FX dealers and cambios, the report
discloses.
The central bank received 40 bids, valued at US$70 million but it
accepted only 16 of these bids for the US$30 million pumped into
the market, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a
positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the
Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured
ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1
from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to
positive.
=====================
P U E R T O R I C O
=====================
CABALLITO LLC: Hires JPC Law Office as Legal Counsel
----------------------------------------------------
CABALLITO LLC seeks approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the
District of Puerto Rico to hire Jose M. Prieto Carballo, Esq., of
JPC Law Office, to serve as legal counsel in its Chapter 11 case.
The firm will provide these services:
(a) advise the debtor with respect to its duties, powers and
responsibilities in this case under the laws of the United
States and Puerto Rico in which the debtor in possession
conducts its operations, does business, or is involved in
litigation;
(b) advise the debtor in connection with a determination
whether a reorganization is feasible and, if not, help the
debtor in the orderly liquidation of its assets;
(c) assist the debtor with respect to negotiations with
creditors for the purpose of arranging the orderly
liquidation of assets and/or for proposing a viable
plan of reorganization;
(d) prepare on behalf of the debtor the necessary complaints,
answers, orders, reports, memoranda of law, and other
legal papers or documents;
(e) appear before the bankruptcy court, or any court in which
the debtor asserts a claim, interest, or defense directly
or indirectly related to this bankruptcy case;
(f) perform such other legal services for the debtor as may
be required in these proceedings or in connection with
the operation of or involvement with the debtor's
business, including but not limited to notarial
services; and
(g) employ other professional services, if necessary.
Ms. Prieto Carballo shall receive an hourly rate of $200, plus
costs and expenses. A retainer of $10,000 has been required, in
addition to a filing fee of $1,738. Any compensation to be received
from the debtor is subject to court approval upon proper
application and notice.
According to court filings, JPC Law Office is a "disinterested
person" within the meaning of Section 101(14) of the Bankruptcy
Code.
The firm can be reached at:
Jose M. Prieto Carballo, Esq.
JPC LAW OFFICE
P.O. Box 363565
San Juan, PR 00936-3565
Telephone: (787) 607-2066
E-mail: jpc@jpclawpr.com
About Caballito LLC
Caballito LLC is a limited liability company.
Caballito LLC sought relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy
Code (Bankr. D. P.R. Case No. 25-04578) on October 9, 2025. In its
petition, the Debtor reports estimated assets and liabilities
between $100,001 and $1 million each.
Honorable Bankruptcy Judge Mildred Caban handles the case.
The Debtor is represented by Jose M. Prieto Carballo, Esq. of JPC
Law Office.
MUNDO EDITORIAL: Hires HDC Tax Services as Financial Consultant
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mundo Editorial Inc. seeks approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court
for the District of Puerto Rico to employ HDC Tax Services Inc. as
financial consultant.
The firm will render these services:
(a) strategic counseling and advice;
(b) pro forma modeling preparation;
(c) financial/business assistance;
(d) preparation of documentation as requested for and during
the Debtor's Chapter 11 case, specifically as it is
related to and has an effect on it; and
(e) financial/business assessments regarding issues
specifically related to the Debtor.
Hector Martinez, an accountant at HDC Tax Services, will be billed
at his hourly rate of $400.
Mr. Martinez disclosed in a court filing that the firm is a
"disinterested person" as the term is defined in Section 101(14) of
the Bankruptcy Code.
The firm can be reached through:
Hector L. Martinez
HDC Tax Services Inc.
16 Principal
Coco Viejo Salinas, Puerto Rico
Tel No: (787) 537-7133
Email: hdctaxservices@gmail.com
About Mundo Editorial
Mundo Editorial Inc. filed its voluntary petition for relief under
Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 25-03916)
on August 29, 2025, listing $100,001 to $500,000 in both assets and
liabilities.
The Debtor tapped Jesus E. Batista Sanchez, Esq., at The Batista
Law Group, PSC as counsel and Hector L. Martinez at HDC Tax
Services Inc. as financial consultant.
SUNNOVA ENERGY: Puerto Rico Dealers Object to Bankruptcy Plan
-------------------------------------------------------------
Angelica Serrano-Roman of Bloomberg Law reports that several Puerto
Rico solar companies are pushing back against Sunnova Energy's
bankruptcy plan, arguing that it disregards millions in unpaid
funds from a Department of Energy initiative targeting low-income
households.
In documents filed in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern
District of Texas, Windmar Energy, Power Solar, and Integrated
Solar Operations allege that Sunnova violated a July 2025 court
order by not disbursing $17.4 million owed under the DOE program.
The companies say the payments remain outstanding despite repeated
demands.
The installers contend that Sunnova's restructuring plan offers no
clear mechanism to satisfy these debts, heightening fears that the
long-delayed payments could be lost entirely in the bankruptcy
process, the report states.
About Sunnova Energy
Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NYSE: NOVA) is an
industry-leading adaptive energy services company focused on making
clean energy more accessible, reliable, and affordable for
homeowners and businesses. Through its adaptive energy platform,
Sunnova provides a better energy service at a better price to
deliver its mission of powering energy independence.
Sunnova Energy sought relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S.
Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. S.D. Tex. Case No. 25-90160) on June 8,
2025. In its petition, the Debto reports estimated assets and
liabilities between $10 billion and $50 billion each.
The Debtor is represented by Jason Gary Cohen, Esq. at Bracewell
LLP.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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