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251230.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Tuesday, December 30, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 260 Headlines B R A Z I L ALAGOAS: Fitch Affirms 'BB/B' IDRs, Outlook Stable CUBA: Power Crisis Meets US Sanctions Politics as Mexico Sends Fuel NEW FORTRESS: Amends Letter of Credit Commitments, Maintains $195MM SBA COMMUNICATIONS: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' CFR, Outlook Now Pos. C O S T A R I C A COSTA RICA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Pos D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C REFINERIA DOMINICANA: Firch Affirms 'BB-' IDRs, Outlook Positive E C U A D O R CORPORACION QUIPORT: Fitch Rates USD300MM Sr. Secured Notes 'B' J A M A I C A JAMAICA: BOJ's $18 Billion Certificate of Deposit Oversubscribed JAMAICA: More Currency in Circulation as at December 2025 JAMAICA: TAJ Offers One-Time Tax Compliance Relief M E X I C O TOTAL PLAY: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDRs to 'B', Outlook Stable P A N A M A BANISTMO SA: S&P Alters Outlook to Developing, Affirms 'BB/B' ICR - - - - - =========== B R A Z I L =========== ALAGOAS: Fitch Affirms 'BB/B' IDRs, Outlook Stable -------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the State of Alagoas' Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. In addition, Fitch has affirmed Alagoas' Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B', National Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(bra)'/Stable Outlook, and National Short-Term Rating at 'F1+(bra)'. Alagoas' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) is assessed at 'b+'. The ratings and Outlooks for Estado de Alagoas (Alagoas; BB/Stable) are supported by Brazil's (BB/Stable) ratings, as the federal government is the state's most significant creditor. Debt owed to the federal government accounts for approximately 59% of the state's direct debt. Fitch considers intergovernmental debt benefits from more flexibility as it can serve as a support instrument by the sovereign during periods of distress, resulting in a two-notch uplift from the state's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of 'b+'. KEY RATING DRIVERS Standalone Credit Profile The State of Alagoas' SCP reflects the combination of a 'Weaker' risk profile and an 'a' financial profile assessment under Fitch's rating case scenario. The SCP, positioned at 'b+', also reflects a comparison with national and international peers. Risk Profile: 'Weaker' The assessment reflects Fitch's view that there is a high risk the issuer's ability to cover debt service with the operating balance could weaken unexpectedly over the scenario horizon (2025 to 2029) due to lower revenue, higher expenditure, or an unexpected rise in liabilities or debt-service requirements. Revenue Robustness: 'Weaker' Fitch evaluates this factor as Weaker due to the state's dependence on transfers from a 'BB' rated counterpart (the sovereign). The Brazilian tax collection framework transfers to states and municipalities a large share of the responsibility for tax collection. Constitutional transfers exist as a mechanism to compensate poorer entities. For that reason, Fitch views a high dependency on transfers as a weak feature for Brazilian local and regional governments (LRGs). The primary metric for revenue robustness is the transfers ratio (transfers to operating revenue). Fitch classifies LRGs with a transfer ratio above or equal to 40% as Weaker and those with a ratio below 40% as Midrange. Alagoas is highly dependent on transfers, which accounted for 51.3% of operating revenue in 2024 and averaged 49% for 2020-2024. Historically, Alagoas' revenue growth has exceeded its GDP growth. From 2019-2024, CAGR was 7.7% in real terms for operating revenue, compared to average annual GDP growth of 2.2%. Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker' Fitch evaluates this factor as Weaker due to Brazilian states' reliance on a small number of taxpayers and the history of federal intervention in state tax policy. Fitch believes Brazilian states and municipalities have limited capacity to increase revenue during a downturn. Tax tariffs are close to the constitutional national ceiling, and a small number of taxpayers contribute a large share of tax collection. Below-average socio-economic indicators also create challenges for additional taxation affordability. Brazil also has a history of federal intervention in subnational taxation. In July 2022, the National Congress set a ceiling on the Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS) tariff on fuels and electricity. This caused revenue losses for states and municipalities, which were only partially reversed later. Alagoas raised the average basic ICMS tariff in the state to 19% from 17% in May 2023. The increase in the basic tariff, aligned with measures to boost tax collection efficiency, resulted in substantial growth for tax collection in 2023-2024. Alagoas' tax collection growth performance is among the highest among Brazilian states. The most significant tax, the ICMS, has a concentrated taxpayer base. The state reports that its 10 largest taxpayers corresponded to 34.3% of total ICMS tax collection in 2024. Expenditure Sustainability: 'Midrange' Fitch evaluates this factor as Midrange due to adequate operating margins during the last few years. States' responsibilities are moderately countercyclical because they handle healthcare, education and law enforcement. Expenditure grows with revenue due to earmarked revenue. States and municipalities must allocate a share of revenue to health and education, causing procyclical behavior in good times; high revenue growth leads to increased spending. However, the significant weight of personal expenditure and salary rigidity means downturns do not cause similar drops in expenditures despite lower revenue. Alagoas reports moderate control over expenditure growth, with sound margins. Operating margins averaged at 18.2% from 2020-2024 but display significant volatility. The state is current on its payroll bill and has no significant delays in its payment of suppliers. Operating expenditure CAGR was 6.6% in real terms between 2019-2024, below operating revenue CAGR of 7.7%. Alagoas enacted a new fiscal framework through Law No. 9.324 on July 19, 2024. The framework will improve fiscal sustainability by limiting expenditure growth. The goal is to sustain the state's "B" assessment under the National Treasury CAPAG (Capacidade de Pagamento) system. Fitch will monitor the performance of Alagoas' operating margins. Expenditure Adjustability: 'Weaker' Fitch evaluates this factor as Weaker due to budget rigidity and the limited ability to lower expenditure. Brazilian local governments have a rigid cost structure, resulting in a Weaker assessment. The Brazilian constitution limits states' ability to reduce expenditure, especially for payroll and pensions Consequently, when revenue drops unexpectedly, operating expenditure does not automatically decrease. In 2024, personal expenditure for the State of Alagoas accounted for 50.9% of total spending. Due to salary rigidity and limited control over human resources or pensions expenses, this category has little flexibility for adjustments. Other operating expenditure, which made up 29.5% of total spending in 2024, has some flexibility, but constitutional mandates on health and education still limit adjustments. Capex represented 14.9% of total expenditure in 2024 and averaged 13.4% between 2020 and 2024. Alagoas' CAPEX ratio is high by Brazilian standards. Still, comparison with international peers and the significant need for expanded public services coverage to meet pressing social demands and infrastructure constraints the assessment to Weaker. Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker' Fitch assesses this factor as Weaker due to the underdeveloped credit market and the presence of off-balance sheet risks related to pensions and judicial liabilities. Access to new loans is restricted because Brazilian LRGs are not allowed to access the market through bonds. Lenders consist mainly of public commercial and development banks and multilateral organizations. Loans are often guaranteed by the federal government, especially foreign currency loans. For that reason, the federal government has strict control over new lending to LRGs. The national framework for debt and liquidity management is moderate, with prudent borrowing limits and restrictions on loan types. Under the Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2000, Brazilian LRGs must comply with indebtedness limits. Consolidated net debt for states cannot exceed 2x, or 200%, of net current revenue. Alagoas's debt ratio was 72.1% as of August 2025. The law also sets limits for guarantees at 22% of net current revenue. Alagoas reported a 0.99% guarantee ratio as of August 2025. As of August 2025, external debt was BRL2,060.1 million, or 13.4% of direct debt. External debt is largely owed to multilateral organizations and has a federal government guarantee. Debt owed directly to the federal government was 59.2% of Alagoas' direct debt in August 2025. Intergovernmental debt has more favorable terms, such as debt service relief during periods of economic distress, as seen in 2020 and early 2021. Alagoas is negotiating entry to the Program for Full Payment of State Debts (Propag; Programa de Pleno Pagamento de Dividas dos Estados), which provides debt service discounts on intergovernmental debt for states that prepay up to 20% of their debt stock. The program applies only to intergovernmental debt owed to the federal government. Fitch will monitor Alagoas entry to Propag and the resulting effects over its debt stock and debt service profile. There is moderate off-balance-sheet risk stemming from the pension system, which is a burden for most Brazilian LRGs, especially for states with a mandate over education and public security. Another contingent liability is the payment of judicial claims or "precatorios." Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Midrange' There is a federal government framework to provide emergency liquidity support by extending the maturity date for the state's federal debt. Fitch assesses the entity's available liquidity, excluding sovereign support, to decide between Weaker and Midrange assessments for liabilities and liquidity flexibility. Fitch's liquidity rate for Brazilian LRGs is defined as the ratio of short-term financial obligations to net cash, as established by the previous version of the CAPAG system by the Brazilian National Treasury. The CAPAG, or Capacidade de Pagamento, assesses which entities qualify for federal government guarantees. Fitch has set a threshold of 100% for the average of the last three years (2022-2024 year-end) and for the last year-end results available (December 2024), resulting in a Midrange assessment for this factor. Alagoas reported a three-year average liquidity ratio of 72.8%. As of December 2024, the metric reached 88.3%, supporting the Midrange assessment. Financial Profile: 'a category' The State of Alagoas is classified by Fitch as a Type B LRG, which is required to cover debt service from cash flows on an annual basis. Alagoas' Financial Profile is assessed at 'a'. Fitch's rating case forward-looking scenario indicates that the payback ratio (net adjusted debt to operating balance), the primary metric for the financial profile assessment, will reach an average of 6.6x in 2027-2029, which aligns with a 'aa' assessment. The actual debt service coverage ratio (ADSCR), the secondary metric, is projected at an average of 1.2x for 2027-2029, aligned with a 'bbb' assessment. Fitch applies an override to the overall financial profile because the secondary metric is two notches below the primary metric. Fiscal debt burden is projected at 76% for the same period. Other Rating Factors Alagoas' ratings are raised to the sovereign rating through intergovernmental finance support. Short-Term Ratings Alagoas' Short-Term FC and LC ratings are affirmed at 'B' following the Rating Correspondence Table. For the national scale, the correspondence table indicates an 'F1+(bra)' Short-Term rating. National Ratings Alagoas' National Scale Rating is positioned at 'AAA(bra)', at the top of the correspondence table, considering that its ratings are raised to the sovereign rating through intergovernmental finance support. Peer Analysis The State of Alagoas' ratings reflect the combination of a Weaker risk profile and an 'a' financial profile assessment under Fitch's rating case scenario. The SCP, positioned at 'b+', also reflects comparisons with national and international peers. The state's IDRs benefit from a two-notch uplift from its SCP through intergovernmental finance support. Alagoas's national scale rating is mapped at AAA(bra) following a national peer comparison. Alagoas' closest peers are the State of Mato Grosso do Sul (SCP: 'b+' and IDRs at 'BB'/Stable) and the State of Sergipe (SCP: 'bb' and IDRs at 'BB'/Stable). Both Alagoas and Mato Grosso do Sul benefit from intergovernmental finance support, as intergovernmental debt accounts for a significant portion of direct debt, which results in a two-notch uplift from the SCP to the IDR. The State of Sergipe's IDRs are derived directly from its SCP. The state reports lower leverage as measured by the payback ratio. Issuer Profile The State of Alagoas is home to 3.4 million people, representing about 1.5% of Brazil's population, and it has below-average socioeconomic indicators. Its revenue sources primarily consist of federal government transfer and taxes. The main spending responsibilities include education, healthcare and law enforcement. Key Assumptions Risk Profile: 'Weaker' Revenue Robustness: 'Weaker' Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker' Expenditure Sustainability: 'Midrange' Expenditure Adjustability: 'Weaker' Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker' Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Midrange' Financial Profile: 'a' Asymmetric Risk: 'N/A' Support (Budget Loans): '2' Support (Ad Hoc): 'N/A' Rating Cap (LT IDR): 'N/A' Rating Cap (LT LC IDR) 'N/A' Rating Floor: 'N/A' Quantitative assumptions - Issuer Specific Fitch's rating case is a "through-the-cycle" scenario, which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial risk stresses. It is based on 2020-2024 figures and 2025-2029 projected ratios. The key assumptions for the scenario include: -- yoy 5.6% increase in operating revenue on average during 2025-2029 results from a combination of tax growth assumptions (linked to inflation plus spread), transfers (linked to nominal GDP), and other operating revenue (linked to inflation); -- yoy 5.2% increase in tax revenue on average during 2025-2029, reflecting actual performance up to October 2025 and projected inflation plus spread going forward; -- yoy 8.5% increase in operating expenditure on average during 2025-2029, which reflects actual data up to October 2025 and the expectation that opex will grow at a rate above inflation during 2025-2029 in Fitch's rating case; -- Net capital balance of BRL2,934 million on average during 2025-2029, with capex projected to sustain historical values in real terms and to absorb excess cash generation through the projection horizon; -- Long-term debt considers new loan disbursements shared by the government minus projected amortization of non-intergovernmental debt; -- Cost of debt: 6.5% on average during 2025-2029, which reflects government projections for debt service payments. For the rating case, Fitch applies a 50 bps shock to apparent cost of debt. Quantitative assumptions - Sovereign Related Figures as per Fitch's sovereign actual for 2024 and forecast for 2025-2029, respectively (no weights and changes since the last review are included as none of these assumptions were material to the rating action): Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade -- A negative rating action on Brazil's IDR would result in a corresponding rating action for Alagoas, given that the uplift between Alagoas' SCP and IDR is limited by the sovereign rating; -- Alagoas' IDRs would be downgraded if its enhanced payback ratio, after accounting for federal support, is projected to exceed 5x and the coverage ratio is projected to fall below 2x. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade -- A positive rating action on Brazil's IDR could result in a corresponding rating action for Alagoas, given that the uplift between Alagoas' SCP and its IDR is limited by the sovereign rating. CUBA: Power Crisis Meets US Sanctions Politics as Mexico Sends Fuel ------------------------------------------------------------------- Rio Times Online reports that an 80,000-barrel Pemex shipment to Cuba sounds like a routine movement of fuel. It is not. It is a small tanker story that opens a large geopolitical file. Start with Cuba's problem. The island's electricity system runs on imported fuel, according to Rio Times Online. The report notes that recent reporting has cited estimates that Cuba needs about 110,000 barrels a day, produces roughly 40,000, and relies on imports for around 60% of total fuel consumption. Around 65% of the fuel it uses is tied to thermoelectric generation, the report discloses. When supplies wobble, blackouts spread quickly and national grid failures become more than a headline, the report relays. They become daily life, the report notes. Now add Mexico's choice. President Claudia Sheinbaum says these deliveries are legal, humanitarian, and consistent with decades of Mexico–Cuba ties, the report discloses. She has pointed to past energy support, including a 400,000-barrel delivery in 2024 after Hurricane Rafael, the report relays. Pemex, for its part, has disclosed Cuba-bound exports in filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the report relays. Yet, detailed public explanations on exact products, pricing, and terms have often been thin, the report discloses. That gap invites suspicion at home and abroad, the report relays. The domestic angle is awkward because Pemex is heavily indebted, and Mexico is still sensitive to fuel prices, the report relays. Pemex output has been reported around 1.3 million barrels per day, below past peaks, and the government is trying to stabilize the company's finances, the report notes. Opposition critics have used the Cuba cargo to argue that the state is prioritizing symbolism while households watch prices, the report discloses. In Washington, the shipment lands in an even hotter context: tougher attention on Venezuela-linked oil networks and the shipping routes that feed Cuba, the report relays. Florida Republicans have amplified the issue, with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warning Sheinbaum, and Rep. Carlos Gimenez urging U.S. negotiators to use the approaching USMCA review cycle as leverage, the report relays. Gimenez has cited media claims of "billions" in 2025 oil value sent to Cuba, a figure debated partly because documentation is uneven, the report discloses. That is the story behind the story: this cargo is less about volume than about signaling, the report notes. In a region where fuel keeps lights on, and sanctions shape shipping behavior, an 80,000-barrel delivery can become a test of who gets to set the rules, the report adds NEW FORTRESS: Amends Letter of Credit Commitments, Maintains $195MM ------------------------------------------------------------------- New Fortress Energy Inc. disclosed in a Form 8-K Report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that the Company entered into the Twelfth Amendment Agreement, by and among the Company, as the borrower, the guarantors party thereto, Natixis, New York Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and each of the other financial institutions party thereto, as lenders and issuing banks, which amends that certain Letter of Credit and Reimbursement Agreement, dated as of July 16, 2021 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, the "Letter of Credit Agreement"), by and among the Company, as the borrower, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, Natixis, New York Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and each of the other financial institutions from time to time party thereto, as lenders and issuing banks, to terminate an automatic reduction of commitments previously scheduled to occur on December 22, 2025 under the Letter of Credit Agreement. After giving effect to the Twelfth Amendment, the commitments under the Letter of Credit Agreement will remain at approximately $195 million. About New Fortress Energy Inc. New Fortress Energy Inc., a Delaware corporation, is a global energy infrastructure company founded to help address energy poverty and accelerate the world's transition to reliable, affordable and clean energy. The Company owns and operates natural gas and liquefied natural gas infrastructure, ships and logistics assets to rapidly deliver turnkey energy solutions to global markets. The Company has liquefaction, regasification and power generation operations in the United States, Jamaica, Brazil and Mexico. The Company has marine operations with vessels operating under time charters and in the spot market globally. As of September 30, 2025, the Company had $11.9 billion in total assets, $10.8 billion in total liabilities, and a total stockholders' equity of $1.1 billion. * * * In November 2025, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CCC'. At the same time, S&P lowered its issue level rating on NFE's 12% senior secured notes due 2029 to 'D' from 'CCC-'. The downgrade reflects NFE's decision to enter into a forbearance agreement. S&P will reevaluate its ratings on NFE before the end of November as more information becomes available. The Company has initiated a process to evaluate its strategic alternatives to improve its capital structure. It has retained Houlihan Lokey Capital, Inc. as financial advisor and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP as legal advisor to assist it in this evaluation. The Company, along with its advisors, is considering all options available, including asset sales, capital raising, debt amendments and refinancing transactions, and other strategic transactions that seek to provide additional liquidity and relief from acceleration under its debt agreements. As part of this process, the Company is engaging in discussions with various existing stakeholders and potential investors. There are inherent uncertainties as the outcome of these negotiations and potential transactions are outside management's control, and therefore there are no assurances that management will be successful in these negotiations and that any of these potential transactions will occur. In addition, there can be no assurances that these transactions will sufficiently improve the Company's liquidity or that the Company will otherwise realize the anticipated benefits. Moreover, if the Company fails to obtain amendments and forbearance, the Company may be required or compelled to pursue additional restructuring initiatives to preserve value and optionality, including possible out-of-court restructurings, or in-court relief, which could have a material and adverse impact on the Company's stockholders. SBA COMMUNICATIONS: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' CFR, Outlook Now Pos. --------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings affirmed the ratings of SBA Communications Corporation, including its Ba2 corporate family rating and Ba3 senior unsecured debt rating. The Speculative Grade Liquidity rating remains unchanged at SGL-2. Moody's also affirmed the Ba2 backed senior secured term loan B and backed senior secured revolving credit facility ratings of its subsidiary, SBA Senior Finance II, LLC. Moody's revised the outlook for SBA Communications Corporation and SBA Senior Finance II, LLC (collectively "SBA") to positive from stable. The ratings affirmations reflect SBA's substantial scale as the third largest wireless tower operator in the US, as well as its strong profit margins and stable cash flows. The positive outlook reflects the REIT's recently revised financial policy, specifically its commitment to maintaining reduced leverage levels and increasing the proportion of unsecured debt in its capital structure. Governance considerations related to SBA's revised financial policy are a key driver of the rating action and positive outlook. Moody's expects SBA to refinance a significant portion of its secured debt with unsecured capital over the coming year, which will increase the size of its unencumbered asset pool and extend its debt maturity profile. RATINGS RATIONALE SBA's Ba2 CFR reflects its large scale and global diversification, which includes strong market positions in the United States, Central America, and Brazil. SBA's tower operations are highly profitable and generate strong, predictable cash flow supported by non-cancellable long-term leases with the major wireless carriers. Sector fundamentals remain favorable as Moody's expects increasing data usage will drive carriers' continued investments in their wireless networks. Other key rating considerations include SBA's meaningful tenant concentrations with T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T, which collectively contribute about 63% of its site rental income. Although these are creditworthy tenants, SBA's earnings growth is still highly dependent on the pace and extent of the carriers' investment activities. The REIT is also facing elevated churn related to carrier consolidation and related equipment decommissions, which will impact its organic revenue growth over the next 1-2 years. SBA recently announced a shift in its financial policy that includes maintaining more modest leverage levels and increasing the proportion of unsecured debt in its capital structure. Specifically, the REIT lowered its leverage target to 6.0x-7.0x (down from 7.0x-7.5x), which translates to around 6.5x-7.5x according to Moody's Net Debt/EBITDA calculation, adjusted for operating leases. As of 3Q25, Moody's Net Debt/EBITDA was 7.1x. SBA also plans to decrease its reliance on secured debt, which comprised 77% of its total debt as of 3Q25. Moody's expects the REIT will seek to refinance a meaningful portion of its secured debt with unsecured borrowings over the coming year, which will increase its unencumbered asset pool and provide financial flexibility. SBA's SGL-2 rating reflects its good liquidity. As of 3Q25, the REIT had $1.6 billion of available capacity on its $2 billion secured revolver plus $430 million of cash. SBA's liquidity is further supported by about $700 million of annual free cash flow. Upcoming maturities include a $750 million securitization and $1.165 billion securitization that have anticipated repayment dates in January 2026 and November 2026, respectively. The REIT has another $1.5 billion of securitizations plus $1.5 billion of unsecured notes maturing in 2027. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS SBA's ratings could be upgraded if the company continues to demonstrate EBITDA growth and maintains Moody's net debt to EBITDA below 7.0x on a sustained basis. SBA's ratings could be downgraded if cash flow growth declines or the company adopts a more aggressive financial policy, including large debt-financed acquisitions or share repurchases, resulting in Moody's net debt to EBITDA sustained above 8.0x. The principal methodology used in these ratings was REITs and Other Commercial Real Estate Firms published in May 2025. The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any, was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement. SBA Communications Corporation is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure including towers, buildings, rooftops, distributed antenna systems (DAS) and small cells. As of 3Q25, the REIT's portfolio included more than 44,500 communications sites throughout the Americas and in Africa. =================== C O S T A R I C A =================== COSTA RICA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Pos ------------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Costa Rica's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Positive Rating Outlook. Key Rating Drivers Ratings Fundamentals: Costa Rica's ratings are supported by structural strengths relative to the 'BB' category, including high per-capita income, an increasingly entrenched fiscal policy framework and strengthened external position. This is counterbalanced by high interest payments compared to peers that are a source of fiscal rigidity and a record of political gridlock hindering reforms and financing flexibility, despite strong governance indicators. The continuation of the Positive Outlook reflects strong growth amid global uncertainty, the continuation of large primary surpluses, a declining interest burden, and ongoing reserve accumulation. Strong Growth: Growth has remained robust, despite the uncertain global environment and the imposition of U.S. tariffs on the country's open export-oriented economy. The economy's free trade zones (FTZs) continue to grow at a stronger pace, while growth in the rest of the economy has been more moderate. We expect the economy to grow 4.1% in 2025, down only marginally from 4.3% in 2024, but to decelerate to 3.5% in line with its potential during 2026-2027 (versus the 'BB' median of 3.7%). Fiscal Improvement Continues: Central government (CG) revenues rose by just 2.2% yoy through September, given that there has been greater economic dynamism in the FTZs, but total expenditures fell 1.6% yoy driven largely by an 8.7% yoy decline in interest expense. The CG primary surplus rose to 1.3% of GDP as of 3Q25, up from 1.2% in 2024. We expect the overall fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2025, down from 3.8% in 2024. Further fiscal consolidation over the medium term is likely to be driven by a falling interest burden, as we forecast the primary surplus to remain around 1% of GDP. We expect the central government interest to revenue ratio to fall to 29%, down from 32% in 2024 but still the highest in the 'BB' category. We expect central government debt to stabilize around current levels (59.4% of GDP in 2025), just below a 60% debt level threshold that invokes a less rigid version of the fiscal rule allowing for greater capex. Upcoming Elections in 2026: Costa Rica will hold congressional and presidential elections in February 2026. Political fragmentation remains high among many political parties; however, polls have indicated strong support for current governing party candidate Laura Fernandez that could potentially lead to a win in a first-round vote (if above a 40% threshold). Regardless of the election outcome, we expect the current fiscal framework and broader macroeconomic policy settings to remain intact. Voter concerns have centered around the security situation in the country. Deep Local Market: The government financed the majority of this year's deficit in the local market. A deep local market and local financing costs that are only marginally higher than dollar funding costs mitigate the impact of the lack of Eurobond authorization. Efforts to revise the Eurobond law and seek authorization for external bond market borrowing failed to advance this year. The government will propose new legislation next year, seeking annual issuance of USD 1.5 billion over the next nine years, subject to approval of a two-thirds majority vote in the National Assembly. In November 2025, the authorities raised EUR1 billion in the local market, which were made available to foreign entities via Global Depositary Notes (GDNs). IMF Grants Flexible Credit Line: In June 2025, the IMF approved a two-year USD1.5 billion flexible credit line for Costa Rica, signaling confidence in the country's strong macro fundamentals and policy frameworks. The approval reflects a reform drive over the past decade, encompassing fiscal rules, tax modernization, enhanced financial sector oversight, and greater central bank autonomy that has supported faster growth, debt reduction, and poverty alleviation. Strong External Position: Strong export performance from FTZs has contributed to structurally lower current account deficits (CADs) in recent years. The trade deficit narrowed through October compared to the prior year as exports have been resilient (rising 15% yoy despite U.S. tariffs as new production from prior year's investments came online) amid more moderate import growth (8% yoy). We forecast a CAD of 1.3% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, more than fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Reserve Accumulation: Narrower CADs coupled with robust FDI inflows have supported reserve accumulation. Net FDI inflows reached a robust USD2.1 billion in 1H25. International reserves reached a high of USD16 billion in November, more than doubling from USD6.9 billion at end-2021. We forecast reserve coverage in 2025 to reach 4.7 months of current external payments, up from 3.1 months in 2021 and in line with the 'BB' median of 4.8 months. With greater reserve accumulation we expect Costa Rica's net sovereign external creditor position to reach +2.1% of GDP by end-2025. Persistent Deflation: Inflation has been negative since May 2025, with the headline print reaching -0.4% yoy in November. Sustained below-target inflation, a strong domestic currency, and renewed U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have given the central bank space to cut its policy rate to 3.5% in September, one of the few emerging markets to maintain policy rates below the Fed. We expect average annual inflation of just 0.3% in 2026, still substantially below the lower bound of the central bank's 3% inflation target, which could weigh on fiscal and debt metrics. ESG Governance: Costa Rica has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability and Rights and '5'[+] for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Costa Rica has a high WBGI ranking at 71, reflecting its long track record of stable and peaceful political transitions, well-established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade -- Public Finances: Rising government debt trajectory due to, for example, fiscal policy reversal or exchange rate shock; -- External Finances: Evidence of external liquidity stress such as, for example, a sharp decline of international reserves. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade -- Public Finances: Continuation of large primary surpluses and continued improvement in the interest to revenue ratio that supports stabilization of the government debt to GDP ratio; -- Macro: Continued robust and broad-based economic growth; -- Structural Factors: Evidence of reduced political gridlock that supports progress on reforms and ensures financing flexibility. Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO) Fitch's proprietary sovereign rating model (SRM) assigns Costa Rica a score equivalent to a rating of 'BBB' on the Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR scale. Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM score to arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR by applying its qualitative overlay (QO), relative to SRM data and output, as follows: Structural: -2 notches; reflects a long track record of institutional gridlock that has hindered timely progress on necessary reforms and access to external financing, which is not fully captured in the high governance scores that feed into the SRM. Public Finances: -1 notch; reflects an adverse fiscal structure due to a high central government interest to revenue ratio. Central government fiscal metrics are much weaker than the general government metrics that feed into the SRM, signaling greater fiscal financing and rigidity challenges. Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM. Debt Instruments: Key Rating Drivers Senior Unsecured Debt Equalized: The senior unsecured long-term debt ratings are equalized with the applicable Long-Term IDR, as Fitch assumes recoveries will be 'average' when the sovereign's Long-Term IDRs are 'BB-' and above. No Recovery Ratings are assigned at this rating level. Country Ceiling The Country Ceiling for Costa Rica is 'BBB-', two notches above the Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR. This reflects strong constraints and incentives, relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange controls being imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private sector from converting local currency into foreign currency and transferring the proceeds to non-resident creditors to service debt payments. Fitch's CCM produced a starting point uplift of +2 notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a qualitative adjustment to the model result. RATING ACTIONS Rating Prior ------ ----- Costa Rica LT IDR BB Affirmed BB ST IDR B Affirmed B LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB LC ST IDR B Affirmed B Country Ceiling BBB- Affirmed BBB- senior unsecured LT BB Affirmed BB =================================== D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C =================================== REFINERIA DOMINICANA: Firch Affirms 'BB-' IDRs, Outlook Positive ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Refineria Dominicana de Petroleo S.A.'s (Refidomsa) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook is Positive. Refidomsa's ratings reflect its linkage strength with the Dominican Republic (Foreign and Local Currency IDRs BB-/Positive), which owns 100% of the company. Linkage strength is supported by Refidomsa's strategic importance as the country's only refinery, its 50% market share, and its role as the main local fuel supplier. The Positive Outlook is also tied to the Dominican Republic's sovereign rating. Key Rating Drivers Linkage to Sovereign: Refidomsa's ratings reflect the linkage with the Dominican Republic, consistent with Fitch's Government Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria. The company's rating is equalized with its parent based on Fitch's Overall Linkage Score (OLS) of 30. Fitch assesses Responsibility to Support and Incentive to Support factors as 'Strong' due to the government's role to supporting Refidomsa in distress, given its strategic importance as the sole refinery and primary local fuel supplier with about 50% market share. Operational disruptions could have substantial social and economic effects. Refidomsa faces regulatory risks from government pricing policies for its products. Limited Scale: Absent implicit or explicit Dominican government support, Fitch assesses Refidomsa's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) at 'b'. The rating reflects a single-site status, small operation with production capacity of 32,000 barrels per day (bpd), limited asset quality and concentrated geographic location. Additionally, Refidomsa faces regulatory risk from government pricing policies. Delayed price adjustments under the Import Parity Pricing formula could pressure margins and working capital, with discrepancies creating government receivables. Stable Operating Metrics: Fitch estimates 2025 EBITDA of about USD63 million (USD3,949 million), a decrease from USD72 million in 2024, reflecting lower crude oil prices and 2025 overhaul that reduced production. Given Refidomsa's exposure to inherently volatile international crude oil and fuel prices, the ratings reflect the cyclical nature of the company's business. Fitch expects EBITDA to recover to USD72 million in 2026 onward as refining margins are anticipated to improve to USD4.9/bbl in 2025 from USD3.2/bbl in 2024, as the overhaul's efficiency gains materialize. Conservative Leverage: Fitch forecasts 2025 leverage at 0.6x in 2025 and below 0.5x through the rating horizon as Refidomsa deleverages. The company's investment plan aims to increase its storage capacity and modernize facilities, primarily financed through long-term debt. Fitch expects FCF to be neutral to positive over the rating horizon, driven by EBITDA growth from 2026 on, as margins improve. Peer Analysis Refidomsa's scale is small, being a single-site operation, and operates in a competitive market. The company's ratings reflect its strategic importance as the sole fuel refinery in the Dominican Republic and primary suppliers of liquid fuels. The linkage to the Dominican sovereign rating aligns with that of most national oil and gas companies in the region, including Petroleos del Peru S.A. (Petroperu; CCC+) and Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX; BB+/Stable). Refidomsa is not the sole provider of refined fuels in the Dominican Republic. Year to date, the company had a 48% market share. Refidomsa's 'b' SCP is comparable to Refinaria de Mataripe S.A. (REFMAT; B+/Stable). REFMAT has a nameplate capacity of 302,000 barrels per day (bpd), while Refidomsa has a smaller capacity of 32,000 bpd. REFMAT's location in northeastern Brazil provides a competitive advantage. Refidomsa's expected average gross leverage, defined as total debt/EBITDA, is expected to be around 0.3x, which is significantly lower than REFMAT's expected 3.7x. Fitch's Key Rating-Case Assumptions -- Fitch's WTI price deck of USD64/bbl in 2025, USD58/bbl in 2026-2027, and USD57/bbl in 2028; -- Refining production of 21,100bbl/day in 2025, and 26,000bbl/day in 2026 onward; -- Imports of 16.3 mmbbl in 2025 and 15.3 mmbbl in 2026 onward; -- Average refining margin of USD4.9/bbl in 2025-2028; -- Average terminal margin of USD4.3/bbl in 2025-2028; -- Average price effect margin of USD0.8/bbl in 2025-2028; -- Average discount of USD1.1/bbl in 2025-2028; -- Capex intensity at 2.2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026 onward; -- No dividends paid over the rating horizon. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade -- Weakening of the relationship with the Dominican Republic or a deterioration in the credit profile of the controlling shareholder; -- Significant loss of market share to under 30%; -- Operational disruptions resulting in a deterioration of liquidity and leverage; -- Sustained increase in leverage, measured as debt-to-EBITDA exceeding 2.0x. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade -- Strengthening of the controlling shareholder's credit profile. Liquidity and Debt Structure As of Sept. 30, 2025, Refidomsa's liquidity position is supported by a cash balance of USD67 million and USD501 million in committed credit lines, of which USD110 million was drawn. Refidomsa has a well-distributed maturity profile, with USD3 million maturing in 2025 as of Sept. 2025 and USD13 million amortizing each year from 2026 to 2028. Refidomsa's debt is concentrated in a single unsecured bank loan from Banco de Reservas, maturing in 2028. Issuer Profile Refineria Dominicana de Petroleo S.A. is an oil refinery and import terminal for petroleum products, dedicated to the marketing of fuels in the Dominican Republic. Its revenue is derived from oil refining and the importation of petroleum products for subsequent distribution in the Dominican market. ============= E C U A D O R ============= CORPORACION QUIPORT: Fitch Rates USD300MM Sr. Secured Notes 'B' --------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Corporacion Quiport S.A.'s (Quiport) USD300 million senior secured notes due in 2037 a final rating of 'B'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Quiport is the concessionaire of Quito's Mariscal Sucre International Airport. The new bond was issued along with a USD200 million senior secured loan from three Ecuadorian Banks. The amount and final debt structure remain consistent with those previously reviewed when Fitch assigned the expected rating, and the 9.0% coupon was slightly lower than anticipated. Projected metrics remain strong for the assigned rating. Fitch Ratings has also withdrawn the 'B(EXP)' expected rating/Stable Outlook on Corporación Quiport S.A.'s USD200 million term loan due to commercial reasons. RATING RATIONALE The rating reflects Quiport's strategic but modest traffic base. The base includes mostly origin-and-destination and leisure-oriented passenger traffic. Quiport has a history of moderate volatility and faces competition from Guayaquil's Jose Joaquin de Olmedo International Airport, the country's second-largest airport. The rating also reflects a tariff-setting mechanism that indexes increases to U.S. and Ecuadorian consumer prices. The rated debt consists of 60% fixed-rate international notes and 40% unhedged floating-rate local loans. This structure partially exposes the transaction to interest-rate volatility. The debt structure includes offshore debt service reserve accounts (DSRA) and standby letters of credit. These cover 12 months of debt service for the bonds and six months for the bank loan. The structure includes other features typical of project finance transactions. Under Fitch's rating case, minimum and average debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) are 1.5x (in 2029) and 1.9x for 2025-2037, respectively. Fitch believes Quiport's essential role as the main gateway for the country will underpin its economic viability even if the sovereign encounters a period of financial distress. This factor, coupled with its ability to service debt under severe traffic shocks, supports a rating two notches above Ecuador's 'CCC+' Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR). Metrics are strong for the assigned rating according to Fitch's applicable criteria, but the rating is limited to two notches above the sovereign. KEY RATING DRIVERS Revenue Risk - Volume - Midrange O&D, Leisure-Oriented Airport: The airport is in Quito's metropolitan region, which accounts for 16% of the country's population (2.7 million). Quiport had a smaller enplanement base of 2.7 million departing passengers in 2024. The airport's traffic base is mostly O&D, approximately 95% of total, with leisure-oriented traffic exceeding business traffic. Traffic volatility is moderate with the largest historic peak-to-trough decline of 13% occurring between 2014 and 2016. Carrier concentration in terms of revenue is low. There is some competition from Ecuador's second-largest airport, Guayaquil's Jose Joaquin de Olmedo International Airport. Revenue Risk - Price - Midrange Dual Till Regulation: Regulated revenue tariffs are indexed according to inflation in Ecuador and the U.S. Commercial revenues have no tariff-setting restrictions. Infrastructure Dev. & Renewal - Stronger Modern Infrastructure: The airport is well maintained, with a 17,647 sq m expansion of the main terminal schedules for completion in 4Q25. It has detailed short- and long-term expansion plans. Future expansions will be funded through internal cash generation. Associated expenditures are smoothed through a rolling offshore capex reserve account or SBLC covering staggered percentages of the next 12 months of capex needs. Any changes to the airport's master capex plan (MCP) require grantor approval. The MCP sets milestones but not specific investment amounts, which the airport must estimate. Debt Structure - 1 - Midrange Fully Amortizing Debt Structure with Strong Liquidity: The senior secured debt comprises two tranches; a fixed-rate U.S. dollar-denominated bond and a floating-rate U.S. dollar-denominate bank loan. Both tranches have fully amortizing repayment profiles. Structural features include an offshore 12-month DSRA for the bond, which limits transfer and convertibility risk; an offshore six-month DSRA for the bank loan; and a capex reserve account. The structure includes robust debt-incurrence and dividend-distribution tests, including ratings affirmation. Financial Profile Under Fitch's rating case, minimum and average DSCR is 1.5x in 2029 and 1.9x, respectively. DSCRs are commensurate with a higher rating according to Fitch's applicable criteria but limited to two notches above Ecuador's sovereign rating. PEER GROUP Quiport's closest peer is ACI Airport SudAmerica, S.A. (ACI; BB+/Stable). It is the indirect sponsor of Puerta del Sur S.A., which holds the concession for Montevideo's Carrasco International Airport in Uruguay. Despite their small size, both airports are the main international gateways to their respective countries. Under Fitch's rating case, minimum and average DSCRs of ACI are 0.96x (in 2026) and 1.6x, respectively. Although ACI's average DSCR is commensurate with higher ratings, the DSCRs up to 2026 are below 1.0x which, combined with the sufficient but limited liquidity, currently constrains the rating. Quiport's metrics (minimum DSCR 1.5x and average 1.9x under Fitch's rating case) are also consistent with a higher rating but limited to two notches above Ecuador's sovereign rating. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade -- Annual traffic growth consistently below 2%; -- Further deterioration of the credit profile of Ecuador's sovereign IDR; Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade -- Positive rating action on the sovereign, as long as project fundamentals and metrics continue to support a higher rating; -- Stable operating environment supporting annual traffic growth above 3% and stable operating cost. TRANSACTION SUMMARY The Quito-Mariscal Sucre Airport (UIO) is Ecuador's main airport, accounting for 67% of the country's capacity (7.6 million seats) in 2024. It serves as the primary international gateway for both passengers and cargo. The airport is owned by the Municipality of Quito and the concession granted by Empresa Publica Metropolitana de Servicios Aeroportuarios owned by the Municipality of Quito (EPMSA, the grantor) and is currently operated by Quiport under a 35-year concession agreement (CA); the airport will be handed back to the Municipality of Quito at the end of the concession in January 2041. The concession included the administration and maintenance of the old UIO airport until its closure, as well as the development, design, financing and construction of the new airport. The agreement also covers its operation, administration and maintenance once completed. Quiport transitioned to the new airport in 2013, with operations in the old airport ceasing that same year. The new airport allows more efficient and safer operations as it has a larger runaway and capacity for larger planes, adaptable facilities given the land available for expansions, and compliance with all international regulations (ICAO standards). Overall, Quiport's historical traffic performance has shown moderate growth , with a CAGR of 1.4% between 2007 and 2024. On the one hand domestic traffic had stagnated with a CAGR of 0.3% in the same period, and in the other hand International traffic has had a positive performance with a CAGR of 2.9% in the same period. Thus, International traffic has been the main driver of traffic growth at Quiport. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS DSCR is the main metric for the transaction due to the amortizing profile of Quiport's debt. Base Case Fitch base case assumes actual performance as of September 2025, swhich results in a traffic decrease of 1.5% in the year. From 2026 onwards, Fitch takes into consideration the traffic advisor's expected annual growth rates until 2037. This results in compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2026 and 2037. The budget of operating expenses and capex was stressed by 5.0%. U.S. inflation was assumed at 4.4% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026 and 3% onwards, while Ecuador inflation was forecast at 3.4% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026 onwards. Under this scenario, minimum and average DSCR (2025-2037) are 1.6x in 2029 and 2.0x, respectively. Rating Case Fitch's rating case also assumes traffic performance as of September 2025, which results in a traffic decrease of 1.6% in the year. From 2026 onwards, Fitch considers the traffic advisor's expected annual growth rates until 2037. This results in CAGR of 2.5% between 2026 and 2037. The budget of operating expenses was stressed by 5%. U.S. and Ecuador inflation are assumed the same as in the base case. Under this scenario, minimum and average DSCR (2025-2037) are 1.5x in 2029 and 1.9x, respectively. SECURITY Customary project finance package, including but not limited to (i) a share pledge over (Issuer) Quiport's shares, (ii) pledge over the respective debt service payment and debt service reserve account, (iii) security interest over any subordinated debt, offshore collections accounts and any other account (other than the distribution account) not otherwise covered by the trust. ============= J A M A I C A ============= JAMAICA: BOJ's $18 Billion Certificate of Deposit Oversubscribed ---------------------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) says strong interest from money changers and investors led to more funds being offered than the central bank intended to absorb in its latest liquidity management operation. They submitted 241 bids valued at $35.3 billion while the central bank wanted to lock away only $18 billion, according to RJR News. The Bank of Jamaica says the average interest rate demanded by investors was just under six per cent with bids ranging from the mid-five per cent area to as high as eight per cent, the report relays. The BOJ uses its fixed rate certificate of deposit to help contain inflation by removing excess cash from the system, the report discloses. The central bank adds that the total value of certificates of deposit now outstanding has increased, reinforcing its efforts to manage liquidity and keep inflationary pressures in check, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. JAMAICA: More Currency in Circulation as at December 2025 --------------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that the Bank of Jamaica is reporting a significant increase in the amount of money in circulation. Effective Dec. 22, currency in circulation stood at $309.1 billion, representing an 11.7% increase compared with the same period lost a year, according to RJR News. The Bank of Jamaica has projected that currency in circulation will reach $321.6 billion by the end of December, which would represent a 7% increase over November's level, the report relays. Currency in circulation includes notes and coins held by the public as well as cash kept in the vaults of commercial banks, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. JAMAICA: TAJ Offers One-Time Tax Compliance Relief -------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that as part of its recovery efforts following Hurricane Melissa, Tax Administration Jamaica (TAJ) has introduced a temporary relief measure to support affected businesses in Trelawny, St. James, Westmoreland, Hanover, St. Elizabeth, St. Ann, and Manchester. Effective December 8, 2025 through March 31, 2026, TAJ will relax the criteria for obtaining a Tax Compliance Certificate and issue a one-time TCC to eligible taxpayers with outstanding obligations who rely on compliance certification to access contracts and essential services, according to RJR News. The initiative aims to promote business continuity, economic stability, and national resilience during the recovery period, the report notes. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. =========== M E X I C O =========== TOTAL PLAY: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDRs to 'B', Outlook Stable ------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has upgraded Total Play Telecomunicaciones, S.A.P.I de C.V.'s (Total Play) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B' from 'B-'. Fitch has also upgraded the company's senior secured notes to 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4' from 'B-'/'RR4' and the senior unsecured notes to 'CCC+/RR6' from 'CCC/RR6'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. The upgrade reflects the improvement in the Total Play's liquidity position, supported by lower refinancing needs and expected positive FCF in the next two to three years. Fitch expects gross leverage to remain below 3.0x over the rating horizon. The rating also reflects the company's strong operational performance, market share and diversification. Fitch assess the company's business and credit profile in the 'BB' rating category but applies a two-notch discount due to corporate governance concerns and limited financial flexibility resulting from a high level of secured debt in its capital structure. Key Rating Drivers Expectation of Positive FCF: Fitch expects Total Play's FCF to be positive during 2025-2027 despite high interest expenses and an average capital intensity of 23.5%. This capex level reflects lower intensity than in past years due to the completion of the investments in the network deployment. We expect the company to use available liquidity in 2026 to repay bank loans and leases for about MXN1.7 billion. Debt repayment and stronger FCF should improve Total Play's liquidity. Fitch does not incorporate in its base projections any dividend payments. Profitability Continuously Improving: Operational performance is in line with Fitch's expectations. Revenue and EBITDA growth has been solid in recent years, supported by extensive network deployment that expanded homes passed, scale, and profitability. Continued increases in network penetration, while maintaining a low-cost structure and working capital requirements, are key to sustaining revenue growth and margin expansion. Fitch expects network penetration to increase to 31% in 2025 and to 32% by YE 2026, (up from 19% in 2020) with EBITDA margins at 44.5% at YE 2025. Fitch expects EBITDA to improve in 2026, allowing Total Play to keep gross leverage ratios below 3.0x. Secured Debt Limits Flexibility: Total Play refinanced and extended its debt maturities in recent years. As of September 2025, approximately 91% of total debt is secured, resulting in about 57% of accounts receivable flowing through the trusts that service the debt. The new notes issued in 2025 are also secured by the fiber network. Fitch views this level of secured debt as high and believes it constrains Total Play's financial flexibility. The original 2028 notes that where not tendered in the exchange offer are now subordinated to the IDR and the secured notes, and Fitch expects lower recovery prospects in the event of default. High Cost of Debt: The use of secured debt limits Total Play's financial flexibility. The secured senior notes carry interest rates between 10.5% and 11.125%, which are higher than the original 2025 senior unsecured notes (7.5%) and 2028 senior unsecured notes (6.4%). The 2025 Cebures issuances were priced 60-75bps above previous spreads. The share of secured debt and cash interest expense have increased given its limited financing options, impacting cash flow generation. Total Play has a moderate FX exposure, as around 44% of its total debt is U.S. dollar-denominated. Market Share and Diversification: Total Play is an important participant in the industry in terms of network coverage, homes passed and revenue-generating units. The company has maintained strong growth despite operating in a competitive industry. Total Play reached 17.6 million homes passed and 5.4 million subscribers in 3Q25, reaching almost 20% of the market share in broadband, according to the IFT. Total Play has a balanced revenue mix and customer and service diversification. ESG - Governance Structure: Fitch believes Grupo Salinas' governance-related events add uncertainty about similar practices in the future. TV Azteca's default and Total Play's private exchange support Fitch's previous assessment that Grupo Salinas is uneven in its treatment of stakeholders. This governance concerns have a one notch impact in Total Play's rating. Peer Analysis Total Play's ratings reflect its limited liquidity position and governance concerns, compared with Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (Televisa; BB+/Stable). Both have a similar market share in fixed broadband, but Televisa has a stronger liquidity profile with extended debt maturities. Total Play compares well with Digicel International Finance Limited's (Digicel; B/Stable). Digicel's financial flexibility and liquidity profile improved after the new secured financing in July 2025. The company has EBITDA margins of around 40%, and Fitch expects that it will be able to generate positive FCF based on moderate capex and absence of dividend payments. Cable & Wireless Communications Limited (C&W; BB-/Stable) has higher leverage than Total Play and a solid liquidity position, with a long-dated debt amortization profile and better service and geographic diversification. C&W benefits from operations in a series of mainly duopoly markets, excluding Panama mobile. Revenue mix per service is well-balanced, with mobile accounting for around 30% of total sales, fixed-line at 25% and business-to-business with 45% of revenue in 2024. C&W's strengths are tempered by Liberty Latin America Ltd.'s financial management, which limits any material deleveraging. Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions - Revenue to grow 1.2% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026 due to the company's strategy of increasing network penetration; - EBITDA margins of 44.5% in 2025 and 45% in 2026; - Capex more aligned with customer increases, with a capex to sales ratio on average at 23% in 2025-2027; - Positive FCF generation in 2025-2027; - No dividend payments. Recovery Analysis Fitch's criteria consider bespoke recovery analysis for issuers with 'B+' IDRs and below. The bespoke recovery analysis assumes that Total Play would be considered a going concern in bankruptcy and that the company would be reorganized rather than liquidated. Total Play's going concern EBITDA of MXN10.5 billion is based on Fitch's expectation of a sustainable, post- reorganization EBITDA level. This compares with LTM EBITDA as of 3Q25 of MXN19.9 billion and reflects the increased competition in the Mexican market and the company's limited financial flexibility. The enterprise value to EBITDA multiple applied is 5.0x, reflecting Total Play's market position. Fitch applies a waterfall analysis to the post-default enterprise value based on the relative claims of debt in the capital structure. Fitch's debt waterfall assumptions consider total debt as of Sept. 30, 2025. The waterfall results in a 'RR4' Recovery Rating for the senior secured notes due in 2028 and a 'RR6' Recovery Rating for the original 2028 senior unsecured notes. Fitch considers that given the high amount of cash flows that go to the master trust, there is subordination in the unsecured 2028 notes. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Additional pressures on the company's financial flexibility that hinders its ability to continue its liability management; - Weaker liquidity position; - A sustained liquidity ratio below 1.0x; - Neutral to negative CFO-Capex/Total debt ratio that prevents further liquidity improvements; - Weaker operating performance and loss of market share; - Unfavorable regulatory changes. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Change in the funding mix towards unsecured debt and a diversification of its funding sources; - A more balanced capital structure between liabilities and equity; - A CFO-Capex/Total Debt ratio consistently at or above 4%. Liquidity and Debt Structure Total Play's financial flexibility remains constrained. The company has a high proportion of secured debt, and Fitch expects it will need to refinance part of its short‑term maturities. However, lower capex intensity is expected to support positive FCF in the coming years, improving the company's liquidity. As of September 2025, Total Play had MX 5.4 billion in short‑term debt and obligations (including factoring). Over the same period, the company held MXN4.8 billion in readily available cash and equivalents and MXN2.1 billion in restricted cash, which Fitch assumes will be applied to debt repayment. The company repaid the remaining balance of its original 2025 unsecured notes in November 2025 and expects to repay approximately MXN1.7 billion maturing in 2026 related to bank loans and leases. Fitch also includes approximately MXN395 million of accounts payable in its debt calculations. The factoring adjustment enables comparability across issuers that use different funding sources, as immediate replacement funding would be required if payables financing were to cease. Issuer Profile Total Play is a Mexican provider of fixed telecommunications services to residential and enterprise customers, including government entities. The company offers pay-television, fixed-broadband and fixed-voice services through its competitive fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) via a gigabit passive-optical network (GPON) network. RATINGS ACTION Rating Prior ------ ----- Total Play Telecomunicaciones, S.A.P.I. de C.V. LT IDR B Upgrade B- LC LT IDR B Upgrade B- senior unsecured LT CCC+ Upgrade RR6 CCC senior secured LT B Upgrade RR4 B- =========== P A N A M A =========== BANISTMO SA: S&P Alters Outlook to Developing, Affirms 'BB/B' ICR ----------------------------------------------------------------- S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on its long-term rating on Banistmo S.A, to developing from negative. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'BB/B' long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on the bank. The developing outlook on the long-term global scale rating reflects that S&P could affirm, lower, or raise its ratings on Banistmo in the next 12 months, depending on the previously mentioned factors. On Dec. 19, 2025, Grupo Cibest S.A. (Cibest; BB-/Negative/B) announced an agreement to sell its banking subsidiary, Banistmo S.A., to Inversiones Cuscatlan Centroamerica S.A. (ICC; not rated), subject to regulatory approvals. S&P requires further clarity on the transaction details, along with an assessment of ICC's consolidated creditworthiness and Banistmo's relevance for the potential acquirer after the proposed acquisition, to assess the impact on its ratings on Banistmo. The outlook revision to developing from negative follows Cibest's agreement to sell 100% of the shares of the Panama-based bank to ICC. The final details, including price and general conditions, are still pending internal, legal, and administrative approvals from involved stakeholders. Moreover, the closure of the transaction is subject to the approvals of the relevant regulatory authorities. As of September 2025, Banistmo's assets and total loans totaled $10.5 billion and $7.8 billion, respectively, while its common equity stood at $1.2 billion. If the transaction closes, the rating on Banistmo would incorporate its new group's consolidated creditworthiness along with the bank's relevance to the group. S&P said, "Our view of creditworthiness would include ICC's geographic footprint and its blended economic risk exposure, capitalization levels including potential goodwill derived from the intended acquisition, business diversity incorporating the new product span and synergies from the transaction, asset quality indicators and risk profile, funding structure, and liquidity profile. Finally, our analysis would incorporate Banistmo's relevance for its new group, reflecting potential sources from extraordinary support if needed. Once the sale plan materializes and final conditions of the purchase are clear, we will assess the implications for our ratings on Banistmo." ICC is a financial group based in Panama, with a broad presence in Central America as the parent company of various banking and insurance businesses in the region. S&P said, "We revised Banistmo's group status to nonstrategic. Cibest's plans to divest its Panama-based subsidiary suggest that the importance of the latter to the group has diminished. In this sense, we don't expect the parent to provide additional sources of extraordinary support, if needed. However, Banistmo will remain integrated to Cibest's operations, and we expect that the group will remain committed to maintaining solvency levels comfortably above minimum regulatory requirements until the transaction closes. Therefore, our revision of the group status has no rating implications for Banistmo. The bank's stand-alone credit profile is 'bb+', but the ratings remain limited by those on its parent, which at the same time remain capped by those on Colombia (BB/Negative/B)." Banistmo will continue operating as one of the largest banks in Panama, while trying to recover its business stability. Amid the recent developments, the bank's strategy for the next two years will continue focusing on maintaining its stable client base and increasing its participation through low-risk segments. The bank continues facing tight competition in the system that has translated into a contraction in its commercial and mortgage segments as of third-quarter 2025. S&P said, "We anticipate the bank will maintain its position as the second-largest participant in the Panamanian banking system in terms of local loans and deposits. We also expect it will maintain diversified operations through a wide range of products including retail, wholesale, and investment banking products and services. In our view, the bank's still sound business franchise and diversity somewhat compensate for its business stability pressures. The bank has struggled to recover from the aftermath of the pandemic, which resulted in structurally weaker payment capacity from some of its customers. The resolution from restructures related to pandemic relief programs--especially in the mortgage segment--have pressured Banistmo's asset quality metrics further. Moreover, the bank still has a relevant delinquent exposure related to the construction segment that we anticipate will remain in its lending book for the next 12 months. Despite Banistmo's efforts to contain further asset quality deterioration, we still consider its risk profile a credit weakness compared to rated peers in the region." S&P said, "The developing outlook on Banistmo reflects our view that we could raise, lower, or affirm the issuer credit rating on the bank in the next six to 12 months. This reflects our expectation that the bank's creditworthiness might strengthen or weaken depending on ICC's credit profile and the final financing conditions after the proposed acquisition, which remain uncertain. In addition, we would also need to assess Banistmo's relevance for its new group in order to evaluate potential sources of extraordinary support, if necessary." Moreover, the outlook also reflects that until the transaction closes, the bank will remain integrated with its current group (Grupo Cibest) and the ratings on the subsidiary will move in tandem with those on its parent until the sale is completed. The ratings will also continue mirroring those of its group if the acquisition does not materialize. S&P could lower the ratings if it concludes that ICC's group credit profile is weaker than the current rating on Banistmo, once the transaction closes. S&P's analysis of ICC will incorporate the following factors on a consolidated basis: -- ICC's blended economic risk exposure, given the group's presence across central America; -- Its business diversity and stability, considering the group's participation across banking and insurance segments; -- Its capitalization levels, considering the final capital structure and goodwill after the acquisition; -- Its overall risk profile and asset quality indicators, and -- Its funding and liquidity profiles. S&P said, "Because our ratings on Cibest currently cap those on Banistmo, we could also downgrade Banistmo if we lower the ratings on Cibest before the sale is completed. This could happen if we downgrade Colombia. "We could raise the ratings if we conclude that ICC's group credit profile is stronger than the current rating on Banistmo, once the transaction closes. Our analysis on ICC will incorporate the factors discussed above in the downside scenario. "Moreover, we would also raise the ratings on Banistmo if we believe it is a key subsidiary for its new parent, directly benefitting from ICC's credit strengths through extraordinary support, if needed, and ICC's credit profile is stronger than the current ratings on Banistmo." ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. 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