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260506.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Wednesday, May 6, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 90 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: IDB OKs USD85MM Program for Digital System in Mendoza CITY OF BUENOS AIRES: Fitch Rates Sr. Unsecured Notes 'B-(EXP)' CITY OF BUENOS AIRES: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable B A H A M A S BAHAMAS: Moody's Ups Issuer Rating to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable J A M A I C A CARIBBEAN CREAM: Incurs $95.8 Million Net Loss JAMAICA: Scallion Farmers' Burden Eased JAMAICA: Trade Deficit Widened in 2025 M E X I C O BANCA MIFEL: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating to AT1 Notes BANCA MIFEL: S&P Assigns 'BB+' Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable X X X X X X X X LATAM: Tourism Observatories Can Strengthen Sustainable Tourism - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: IDB OKs USD85MM Program for Digital System in Mendoza ---------------------------------------------------------------- The Board of Executive Directors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has approved an $85 million program to deepen the digital transformation of the health system in Mendoza province. The operation will benefit over 1.2 million people, more than two-thirds of whom rely exclusively on public health coverage. The other third use the province's public health services each year, despite having private, prepaid health insurance or employment-based insurance. The project will enhance health facilities’ technological infrastructure to enable them to expand remote services, digitalize diagnostic imaging, and improve the medication management process in hospitals. It will also strengthen patient interaction portals for better remote care. The digitalization process in Mendoza will include a program to train and manage healthcare workers. The project will also fund services and equipment for developing platforms, analytical models, and institutional capacities for a safe and connected digital ecosystem that makes smart use of data. The program for Mendoza province is the first operation of a $700 million Conditional Credit Line for Investment Projects (CCLIP) to spur the digital transformation of health in Argentina. The credit line aims to reduce premature deaths from chronic diseases, as well as their impact on people’s quality of life, by using digital tools to quickly generate and share information between health services of different types and levels of complexity, and, ultimately, between the provinces and the central government. This capability will streamline diagnoses and treatments and better equip healthcare teams to track patient care. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. S&P's 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. Moody's Ratings on July 17, 2025, upgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. CITY OF BUENOS AIRES: Fitch Rates Sr. Unsecured Notes 'B-(EXP)' --------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned an expected Long-Term rating of 'B-(EXP)' to the City of Buenos Aires (CBA) proposed senior unsecured notes, series 14 for up to USD500 million under the city's USD2.9 billion medium-term note program (B-). The series 14 notes are denominated in U.S. dollars and, according to the preliminary documents, will accrue a fixed interest rate to be determined at issuance. They will have a three annual payments amortization structure, interest will be payable semiannually, and the maturity will be up to 10 years. The notes will be CBA's direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured general obligation and will rank pari passu in right of payment compared with its other unsecured obligations. The applicable law for the notes would be the England law. The final rating is contingent upon Fitch's receipt of all final documents conforming to information already received, as well as the final pricing and financial close on the proposed notes. The CBA has laws (6.504 and 6.734) that allow borrowing up to USD1.100 billion, which could be used for liability management operations if market windows arise. In this context, the purpose of the issuance of series 14 for up to USD500 million is to fund amortization payments. The legal destination is specifically for the cancellation of financial liabilities. Key Rating Drivers The expected rating of the notes is at the same level as CBA's Long-Term Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'B-'. By definition, it reflects the CBA's timely payment of financial obligations in FC. On Sept. 11, 2025, Fitch affirmed Buenos Aires's ratings. For details, please review Fitch's latest Rating Action Commentary, "Fitch Affirms City of Buenos Aires at 'B-'; Outlook Stable". Buenos Aires' current Standalone Credit Profile is 'bb-' and the entity continues to meet Fitch's criteria requirements for a rating of 'B-', which is above Argentina's 'CCC+' sovereign rating, due to its strong budget, lack of need for external debt refinancing, and sufficient liquidity. CBA's debt is mostly composed of issuances and multilateral loans in U.S. dollars (98.7% of total stock in 2025). At YE 2025, direct debt totaled ARS2.627 billion, with an increase of around 62% from the 2024 level due to currency depreciation (40.6%). As of June 2025, the CBA has a strong liquidity position, coupled with positive operating balance and financial equilibrium, which clears up uncertainty regarding the entity's payment capacity over the next 24 months. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade A downgrade of Argentina's Country Ceiling would negatively affect CBA ratings. Any new regulatory impediments that limit Argentine provinces' access foreign exchange would also pressure the ratings. Fitch could downgrade the IDR if the ADSCR falls below 1.0x in tandem with a liquidity coverage ratio below 1.0x underpinned by lower operating margins and unrestricted cash; regardless of whether the payback ratio remains below 5x. Thus, CBA will not meet all the conditions for a rating above the sovereign. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade An upgrade on Argentina's Country Ceiling above 'B-' could positively affect CBA' ratings, provided the payback ratio remains below 5x and ADSCR above 2.0x. Date of Relevant Committee 20-Nov-2025 Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings Buenos Aires' IDR is capped by Argentina's country ceiling. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating ----------- ------ Buenos Aires, City of senior unsecured LT B-(EXP) Expected Rating CITY OF BUENOS AIRES: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR, Outlook Stable ---------------------------------------------------------- On May 4, 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' foreign and local currency long-term issuer credit ratings on the City of Buenos Aires. The outlook remains stable. S&P assigned a 'B-' issue rating to the proposed Series 14 global notes. Outlook The stable outlook balances the city's solid budgetary performance and strong cash reserves with the risks from Argentina's substantial economic vulnerabilities. While President Javier Milei's administration has undertaken comprehensive reforms designed to stabilize the economy, Argentina's economic fundamentals remain fragile. Downside scenario S&P could lower the long-term ratings on Buenos Aires in the next 12 months if the central government tightens access to foreign currency, leading us to revise down our transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment for Argentina, which could impair the city's ability to service foreign currency debt. Upside scenario To upgrade the city to 'B', S&P would need to revise up its T&C assessment of Argentina to 'B' and see meaningful improvements in the institutional assessment of Argentine subnational governments, along with the city maintaining strong financial fundamentals. Alternatively, if the weakness of the federal system remains unchanged, an upgrade of the city to 'B' would be possible only with a sovereign upgrade to 'B', according to our criteria for rating subnational governments above the sovereign. Rationale Buenos Aires' SACP is 'bb', four notches above the 'B-' rating. This reflects the city's more prosperous economy than national and regional peers, which moderates the risks from Argentina's macroeconomic instability and shifts in policies. During significant economic stress in Argentina, the city's management has leveraged its own robust economy to implement actions that have resulted in resilient fiscal performance, a low debt burden, and robust cash reserves. That said, the ratings also capture Argentina's very weak institutional framework and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Despite impressive fiscal outcomes and falling inflation, the sovereign's external position remains vulnerable, as reflected in the 'B-' T&C assessment. Financing conditions for subnational governments are also vulnerable to investors' confidence in the sovereign, given Argentina's history of default. The city's proposed global notes for up to $500 million would follow its November 2025 $600 million issuance, which was the first global issuance since 2016. Since 2025, Argentine subnational governments have issued $3 billion in new debt, signaling some improvement in market conditions. Economic growth and renewed market access allow for more ambitious budget planning S&P Global Ratings expects Argentina's GDP growth to slow to 3.2% in 2026 from 4.4% in 2025. Sustaining economic growth has been a challenge for Argentina; periods of unsustainable growth have been followed by economic downturns and stagnation. Nonetheless, economic imbalances have declined over the past two years, and economic growth is likely to remain 3%-4% in 2027-2028, contingent on the success of the sovereign's economic plan. S&P forecasts Buenos Aires' GDP per capita to grow to $37,600 in 2026, well above Argentina's average of $14,700 and higher than for all Latin American peers. However, our growth outlook faces substantial risks from Argentina's fragile economic fundamentals and global uncertainty. Furthermore, per capita GDP indicators may vary depending on foreign exchange fluctuations. Regardless, the city's wealth is evident in its more developed infrastructure relative to other local and regional governments (LRGs) in emerging markets, along with the higher formality in the economy. These structural strengths have helped mitigate economic volatility and negative interventions by the central government. The sovereign's economic stabilization program, predicated on significant reductions in national fiscal deficits, has led to cuts or delays in fiscal transfers to LRGs, creating political friction between the central and subnational governments. The revenue-sharing corresponding to Buenos Aires has been a source of dispute with the national government over the past few years, which has increased the volatility of the city's operating revenue and exacerbated economic fluctuations. In the past four years, the city's national government transfers have fluctuated depending on the national government's fiscal space. The city's management has gained experience in navigating volatile macroeconomic conditions and policy shifts at the national level by adapting fiscal policies in a timely manner. Improved expectations for economic growth and renewed access to global markets have encouraged management to shift to a longer-term capital planning horizon. Mayor Jorge Macri's administration is pursuing a plan to expand and improve the city's subway system, which is a project we anticipate will extend into future political administrations, though its execution will remain contingent on economic and market conditions. Substantial fiscal autonomy and low debt support investment despite sovereign risks The city's strong revenue base and active expenditure management will likely maintain its robust operating performance in 2026-2027. Unlike other Argentine LRGs, Buenos Aires generates 85% of its revenue locally, and its local economy has been more resilient than those of other provinces. The financial and service sectors of the city, which are large contributors to tax collection, have outpaced the performance of other sectors and provinces. This has resulted in more resilient tax collection than in other Argentine LRGs, where real growth remains negative. Moreover, transfers almost doubled in 2025 following the settlement of the coparticipations dispute in August 2024. However, the actual flow of these increased transfers has been uneven, with approximately 5% of the city's operating revenue outstanding as past-due grants, according to management. This led to weaker-than-expected after-capex results in 2025. S&P thinks the city will continue to work with the national government to stabilize the flow of this revenue, although the sovereign's commitment to fiscal austerity and its still-weak revenue may delay finding a long-term solution to the dispute. S&P said, "We expect Buenos Aires will continue closely monitoring revenue and expenditure to preserve its fiscal strength, especially as uneven inflation reduction could create mismatches between revenue and expenditure. That said, improved growth prospects will enable the city to ease its cost-control measures, and we anticipate a gradual rise in public works. We expect the advancing subway project and other long-term projects to gradually increase capital expenditure to nearly 20% of total expenditure, from 15% in 2024, resulting in temporary and moderate fiscal deficits. "The proposed Series 14 notes follow the issuance of the $600 million Series 13 notes in November 2025. Buenos Aires' borrowing strategy is focused on improving the maturity schedule, and we anticipate its debt burden to remain low at around $2 billion, or less than 30% of operating revenue, in the next two years, although the city is still highly exposed to exchange rate risk." Interest will remain below 2% of operating revenue and total debt service at 4% of operating revenuein 2026-2027 as $600 million outstanding of the Tango 12 bond amortizes. Except for the 2027 Tango payments, the next commercial amortization is in 2031. Debt service requirements will fall and mostly stem from multilateral lenders in 2028-2030. Market conditions have become more favorable for Argentine issuers, especially subnationals; however, vulnerability to global risk aversion is high. A long period of debt issuance constraints and revenue volatility has prompted Buenos Aires to strengthen its cash reserves, notwithstanding that limited domestic investment sometimes generates negative real returns. Current liquidity could cover debt payments for the next 24 months, including the remaining two amortizations (nearly $300 million each) of the Tango bond. In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable. At the onset of the committee the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected in the Rating Component Scores above. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action. Ratings List Ratings Affirmed Buenos Aires (City of) Issuer Credit Rating B-/Stable/-- Senior Unsecured B- New Rating Buenos Aires (City of) Senior Unsecured B- ============= B A H A M A S ============= BAHAMAS: Moody's Ups Issuer Rating to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable ------------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings has upgraded the Government of Bahamas (The Bahamas)' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba3 from B1, and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Furthermore, the backed foreign-currency senior unsecured rating was affirmed at Aaa. The rating is based solely upon the unconditional and irrevocable guarantee of scheduled principal and interest payments provided by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB, Aaa stable). The upgrade to Ba3 reflects a sustained strengthening in fiscal performance that has placed government debt on a firm downward trajectory and materially reduced liquidity risk. The government has established a credible track record of large primary surpluses, supported by stronger revenue collection, policy measures that broaden the tax base, and continued expenditure restraint. In Moody's baseline scenario, primary surpluses remain robust at around 4% of GDP throughout the next few years, among the strongest outcomes for similarly rated sovereigns, supporting a decline in government debt to around 68% of GDP by the end of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027 (fiscal 2027) and just above 60% by the end of the decade. At the same time, lower net borrowing requirements, increased reliance on longer-term multilateral financing and active liability management have reduced refinancing pressures and improved the quality of the government's funding profile. The stable outlook reflects Moody's views that The Bahamas' credit profile at Ba3 is balanced. Improving fiscal strength and lower liquidity risk are weighed against still weak debt affordability, a narrow economic base centered on tourism, and significant exposure to climate-related shocks. Continued fiscal discipline, anchored by the Financial Responsibility Act and medium-term fiscal targets, could support further improvements over time. However, the sovereign remains vulnerable to adverse tourism developments or severe weather events that could interrupt the downward debt trajectory. The Bahamas' local- and foreign-currency ceilings were raised to Baa2 from Baa3 and Baa3 from Ba1, respectively. The four-notch gap between the local currency ceiling and the sovereign rating reflects an established track record of predictable and reliable macroeconomic policymaking balanced against a reliance on tourism that represents a common risk for the government and non-government issuers in the country. The one-notch gap between the foreign currency and local currency ceiling reflects low transfer and convertibility risk, itself anchored by a history of relatively strong economic institutions supporting exchange rate stability and limited external indebtedness, despite a history of capital controls. RATINGS RATIONALE RATIONALE FOR THE UPGRADE TO Ba3 SUSTAINED FISCAL CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS A CONTINUED DECLINE IN DEBT BURDEN The Bahamas has established a meaningful track record of fiscal consolidation over recent years, underpinned by robust tourism activity, tighter tax enforcement, and contained expenditure growth. In Moody's central scenario, primary surpluses average approximately 4% of GDP between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028, a level that ranks among the strongest of all B1- and Ba3-rated sovereigns and represents a marked shift from the large deficits recorded during the pandemic. Revenue performance has become more durable, extending beyond the cyclical support from tourism. Moody's projects revenue will rise from approximately 21% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to around 22.5% in fiscal 2026–2027, supported by the Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (QDMTT), sustained tourism-related activity, and incremental gains in tax administration, while expenditure remains broadly contained. Moody's expects the stronger fiscal position to translate into a continued reduction in debt ratios and a gradual improvement in debt affordability. Government debt is projected to decline to about 68% of GDP by the end of fiscal 2027 and just above 60% by 2030, from 72.5% in fiscal 2025, while interest payments are projected to fall to about 17% of revenue in fiscal 2027 from nearly 20% in fiscal 2025. The energy sector reform is expected to reduce contingent liabilities from the state-owned enterprises, as the operational and financial burden on the government diminishes. Over a longer horizon, Moody's expects fiscal policy to remain guided by the Financial Responsibility Act, which sets a 50% debt-to-GDP target by fiscal 2031 and caps fiscal deficits at 0.5% of GDP. While these rules are not subject to automatic enforcement or mandatory correction mechanisms, they provide a meaningful policy anchor that underpins the government's consolidation strategy. IMPROVED FUNDING CONDITIONS AND LOWER GROSS FINANCING NEEDS REDUCE LIQUIDITY RISK Stronger fiscal outcomes and active liability management have reduced borrowing needs and rollover risk. The return to sustained primary surpluses has lowered net financing needs to refinancing of maturing obligations only, reducing gross financing needs from pandemic-era peaks. Although gross financing needs remain elevated at around 15% of GDP, reflecting the still significant share of short-dated domestic debt, the composition and quality of financing has improved materially. The government's financing strategy has shifted toward longer-tenor, more concessional sources. Financing from multilateral institutions, including the IADB, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), and Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF), provides extended maturities and relatively favorable terms, reducing reliance on short-term domestic borrowing and on higher-cost commercial external debt. That said, multilateral debt accounts for only around 25% of total external debt, while commercial debt represents more than half of external debt. The financing profile therefore remains weighted toward higher-cost commercial debt, which is likely to limit a significant reduction in external borrowing costs. In line with its Medium-Term Debt Strategy, Moody's expects the government to fund itself primarily in the domestic market and to diversify external financing toward lower-cost multilateral and semi-concessional channels. Domestic refinancing needs, while still the largest share of gross financing needs, remain manageable. The domestic investor base is stable and largely captive, with banks modestly increasing their capacity to absorb longer-tenor bonds as credit fundamentals have improved. The domestic market remains somewhat shallow and skewed toward shorter maturities, and further development of longer-dated domestic issuance capacity would reduce refinancing risk over time. Nonetheless, the combination of reduced net borrowing needs, greater multilateral financing, and a stabilized domestic investor base represents a meaningful improvement in the sovereign's liquidity risk profile relative to a year ago. RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK The stable outlook reflects Moody's views that The Bahamas' credit profile at Ba3 is balanced. Moody's expects continued fiscal consolidation, declining government debt and improved funding conditions to support the rating. At the same time, debt affordability remains weak, the economy remains highly concentrated in tourism, and growth remains vulnerable to external demand conditions, capacity constraints and one-off shocks. The current account deficit has narrowed, but remains large, while international reserves have remained stable at around $2.8 billion. Moody's also expects growth to moderate to 2.1% in 2026 as the economy returns toward potential after strong growth of 2.8% in 2025. Political risks are expected to remain low, with upcoming general elections unlikely to materially alter the fiscal policy direction. Even so, the sovereign remains highly exposed to severe weather events, which could weaken fiscal and external metrics. The government has taken a proactive approach to strengthening climate resilience through a range of instruments, including CCRIF coverage, contingent credit lines from multilateral partners, the successful completion of a debt-for-nature swap. These arrangements provide meaningful, though partial, mitigation against the fiscal impact of severe weather events. The stable outlook therefore captures Moody's expectations that the sovereign's improving fiscal and liquidity profile will be offset by still-elevated structural vulnerabilities at the Ba3 level. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS The Bahamas' Credit Impact Score of CIS-3 indicates that ESG considerations have a limited impact on the current credit rating with potential for greater negative impact over time. The Bahamas' score reflects its exposure to environmental risks, which relates to its exposure to climate-related weather shocks, moderate exposure to social risks, and a strong institutional framework that supports its governance. The Bahamas' overall E issuer profile score of E-4 is driven by its geographic location in the so-called Hurricane Belt and frequent tropical storms in recent years. Because tourism represents a large share of the economy, disruptions to the sector caused by weather events can affect the credit profile. In addition, The Bahamas is exposed to rising sea levels, with 72% of its land being low lying or within five meters above sea level. GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 40,564 (2024) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 3.4% (2024) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 0% (2024) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -1.2% (2024) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: -6.6% (2024) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 35.5% (2024) Economic resiliency: baa2 Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983. On April 27, 2026, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Bahamas, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially increased. The issuer's institutions and governance strength, have materially increased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially increased. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. An analysis of this issuer, relative to its peers, indicates that a repositioning of its rating would be appropriate. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS The rating could be upgraded if The Bahamas demonstrates a sustained improvement in debt affordability and a faster-than-expected decline in government debt, supported by large primary surpluses, broader, more resilient revenue generation, and further strengthening in the government's financing profile. A material improvement in the sovereign's access to financing on concessional terms, including greater use of multilateral financing or other sources that ease existing constraints on the funding profile, particularly in the context of elevated financing needs, would also support upward pressure on the rating. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Downward pressure on the rating could emerge if slower progress on fiscal consolidation undermines the expected decline in government debt. Downward pressure could also arise from weaker tourism activity over a prolonged period of time, material fiscal slippage, or a severe climate-related event that significantly worsens fiscal or external metrics. A renewed increase in liquidity or rollover risks, or a materially weaker financing profile, would also weigh on the rating. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereigns published in November 2022. ============= J A M A I C A ============= CARIBBEAN CREAM: Incurs $95.8 Million Net Loss ---------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that Caribbean Cream has reported a net loss of $95.8 million for the year ended February 2026, reversing a profit of $17.8 million the previous year. The company recorded gross operating revenue of just under three billion dollars, slightly down from the previous year, but higher direct expenses weighed heavily on performance, according to RJR News. Finance costs increased to $107.5 million, further affecting the company's bottom line, the report notes. Despite a tax credit of $30 million, the company ended the year in the red, the report adds. Caribbean Cream is the maker of Kremi brand frozen treats. JAMAICA: Scallion Farmers' Burden Eased --------------------------------------- RJR News reports that scallion farmers who could not sell their crops because of a glut or oversupply are now receiving assistance because of collaboration between the public and private sectors. GraceKennedy purchased 50,000 pounds from farmers located at the New Forest Agro-Park, according to RJR News. Agriculture Minister Floyd Green says members of the private sector will be buying another 125,000 pounds, the report notes. Mr. Green revealed that the ministry and the private sector will be purchasing a total of 600,000 pounds during the next two weeks in order to ease the pressure on farmers and get them to continue to invest in the agricultural sector, the report relays. He added that this is because production is running ahead of demand, the report says. For example, he stressed that GraceKennedy currently has almost three years of supply and as a result, Walker's Wood was called upon to provide assistance, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. JAMAICA: Trade Deficit Widened in 2025 -------------------------------------- RJR News reports that Jamaica's trade deficit widened in 2025 as import spending continued to outpace export earnings. Figures released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) show that the country spent US$7.5 billion on imports between January and December, according to RJR News. This represents a 3.2 per cent increase over 2024, driven mainly by higher spending on raw materials and consumer goods, the report notes. Meanwhile, total export earnings fell sharply to $1.65 billion down 13.4 per cent compared to the previous year, the report relays. STATIN says the decline was largely due to a more than 20 per cent drop in earnings from crude materials, excluding fuels, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. =========== M E X I C O =========== BANCA MIFEL: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating to AT1 Notes -------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Banca Mifel, S.A. Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Mifel's (Banca Mifel) planned Additional Tier 1 (AT1) notes an expected long-term rating of 'B-(EXP)'. The expected rating is four notches below the bank's Viability Rating (VR) and aligns with Fitch's baseline notching for AT1 instruments. The notes are perpetual, deeply subordinated, interest-rate resettable AT1 debt securities, with fully discretionary, non-cumulative coupons. Proceeds will be used to prudently manage regulatory capital ratios and support loan portfolio growth. The assignment of a final rating is contingent on the receipt of final documents conforming to the information already received. Key Rating Drivers Notching from Banca Mifel's VR: The AT1 notes are rated four notches below Banca Mifel's 'bb' VR, comprising two notches for loss severity risk, due to deep subordination, and two notches for incremental non-performance risk, given fully discretionary and non-cumulative coupon payments. Poor Recoveries in a Liquidation Scenario: According to Fitch criteria, the two-notch adjustment for loss severity reflects the issue's subordinated non-preferred debt status and expected poor recovery prospects in a liquidation event relative to the bank's senior debt. The notes will rank subordinated to all senior debt and subordinated preferred notes, pari passu to all subordinated non-preferred debt and senior to all classes of capital stock. Coupon Omission: The two-notch adjustment for non-performance considers the fully discretionary and non-cumulative coupon payment and Fitch's view that according to local regulations, interest deferral will be triggered at relatively high capitalization levels before a write-down or point of non-viability (PONV) occurs. The bank has the right to cancel, in whole or in part, interest payments at any time. Additionally, the coupon payment will be cancelled if the Mexican regulator classifies Banca Mifel as "Class II" or below under the Mexican Capitalization Requirements or Early Warning System. If the Tier 1 capital ratio falls below 5.15% while the coupon cancellation event is in effect, the notes will be written down and all outstanding interest will remain cancelled. Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - While not Fitch's base case, if the bank's VR were downgraded, the AT1 would not necessarily be downgraded, due to rating compression under Fitch's current criteria, which allows for an overall notching of -3 when the anchor issuer's VR is 'bb-' or lower. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - The AT1 notes would typically be upgraded if Banca Mifel's VR were upgraded to maintain baseline notching of -4 from the anchor issuer's VR. For further information about the drivers and rating sensitivities for Banca MiIfel's ratings, please see Fitch Rates Banca Mifel's IDRs 'BB'; Outlook Positive, published Apr. 17, 2026. Summary of Financial Adjustments Fitch's tangible equity calculation excluded prepaid expenses and other deferred assets from shareholders' equity. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating ----------- ------ Banca Mifel, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Mifel junior subordinated LT B-(EXP) Expected Rating BANCA MIFEL: S&P Assigns 'BB+' Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable ------------------------------------------------------------------- S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB+' long-term issuer credit rating to Banca Mifel S.A. The outlook is stable. Moreover, S&P assigned its 'B-' long-term issue-level rating to the proposed perpetual, callable, subordinated, nonpreferred, noncumulative, Tier 1 capital notes to be issued by Banca Mifel. Banca Mifel is a Mexican based bank, focused on commercial loans with modest market share within the Mexican banking system. Over the past few years, the bank has consistently expanded its business, contributing to growing operating revenue generation and stable interest margins. Likewise, adequate loan book performance has supported a manageable cost of risk, which, alongside good efficiency levels, has led to increasing internal capital generation and adequate capitalization. Despite its modest market share within the Mexican banking system, Banca Mifel's consistent business growth and gradual diversification have boosted operating revenue generation. Banca Mifel is a midsize Mexican-based bank with a business model primarily focused on commercial lending. It has a market share of around 1% in terms of loans and deposits. As of March 2026, commercial loans made up 82.2% of its loan portfolio, followed by mortgages (17.3%), and retail loans (0.5%). Within the commercial segment, the bank focuses on medium size enterprises (49%), alongside investments in project financing (24%), agribusiness (8%), and factoring (1%). Over the past five years, its loan portfolio grew at a compound annual rate of 14%, largely driven by project finance loans in northern Mexico. The bank has also made notable strides in digital transformation, focusing on attracting deposits through digital offerings, enhancing interest margins. Banca Mifel plans to expand its retail lending portfolio, particularly in credit cards and mortgages. However, S&P expects retail products to represent less than 5% of the portfolio in the near term. Approximately 90% of Banca Mifel's revenue derives from net interest income, with the remaining 10% coming from fees and commissions tied to fiduciary services, foreign exchange operations, point of sale terminals, and electronic banking. S&P expects operating revenue growth of around 11% for 2026 and 2027 on average, supported by a 14% loan book expansion and stable net interest margin (NIM) of around 3.65%. Over the past five years, operating revenue has grown at a robust compound annual growth rate of 26%, reflecting business stability despite modest economic dynamics in the country. As of March 2026, operating revenue increased by 18% YoY, driven by lending growth at around 17% coupled with NIM improvement to 4.0%, up from a three-year average of 3.3%. Furthermore, the improved NIM largely owed to lower funding costs, resulting from a shift toward demand from time deposits in last couple of months. Finally, S&P expects Banca Mifel to continue to demonstrate adequate governance and effective risk management, supported by an experienced executive team with a strong track record of prudent decision making across economic cycles. The bank has successfully managed its consistent growth in the commercial sector while maintaining stability in key performance indicators like operating revenue growth and asset quality. Banca Mifel's strong internal capital generation supports the expected loan portfolio growth, maintaining adequate capital metrics. S&P said, "Our assessment is based on the risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio we forecast for Grupo Financiero Mifel, Banca Mifel's parent company, and evaluates capital and earnings on a consolidated basis. We project a consolidated RAC ratio close to 10% for 2026-2027, supported by the bank's stable internal capital generation." Moreover, S&P assumes: -- Mexican real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 Loan portfolio growth of about 14% -- Stable NIM at around 3.65% and return on assets around 2% in the next two years -- Nonperforming assets (NPAs) around 2.5%, and coverage levels around 75% -- Dividend payout of around 10%-15% for the next two years Tier 1 notes issuance of up to US$300 million during 2026 Once Banca Mifel's proposed notes have been issued and confirmed as part of its Tier 1 capital base, S&P would assign them intermediate equity content in accordance with its criteria. This reflects its understanding that the notes: -- Are perpetual regulatory Tier 1 capital instruments with a call date that S&P expects to be over five years from issuance, Have no step-up clause that could increase the incentive to redeem the notes, -- Can absorb losses on a going-concern basis through the nonpayment of coupons and principal write-down, and -- There are no material restrictions on deferrals because the bank can discretionally suspend coupon payments. The 'B-' issue rating on the subordinated notes is five notches below S&P's 'BB+' long-term issuer credit rating on Banca Mifel, reflecting: -- Two notches because the notes are contractually subordinated to other senior debt, and S&P has a speculative-grade rating on the bank; -- Two notches to reflect the notes' discretionary coupon payments and regulatory Tier 1 capital status; and -- An additional notch for the mandatory contingent capital clause that would lead to a principal write-down. S&P said, "In addition to our projected RAC ratio, we consider Banca Mifel's compliance with the 10.5% regulatory capital requirement. The bank's regulatory capital stood at 17.2% as of 2025. Additionally, we evaluate the quality of the bank's capital base, which has historically been composed of paid-in capital, reserves, and retained earnings. We anticipate that once the proposed hybrid instrument is issued, capital quality will remain adequate, because the issuance will account for about 25% of the capital base. "Finally, we consider the quality of the bank's earnings as adequate. By March 2026, its return on assets stood at 2%, in line with its three-year average 2.1%, and we expect to remain steady over the next two years, driven by consistent net interest income. Additionally, we expect its cost-to-income ratio to remain around 42%, reflecting benefits from its digitalization strategy. "Banca Mifel's shows adequate loan book performance supported by cautious origination policies. The bank plans to maintain its focus on commercial loans while gradually expanding its retail lending portfolio, particularly in credit cards and mortgages. However, we do not expect loan book composition to shift significantly over the coming years. We expect retail lending to grow moderately, reaching approximately 5% of the total loan over the medium term, while commercial loans remain the dominant segment." The bank plans to continue to reduce its mortgage segment, which primarily consists of loans originated by Infonavit, through resales, natural loan amortizations, and sustained growth in the commercial portfolio. This strategy addresses the segment's significant NPAs, which stem from its focus on low-income borrowers. S&P said, "We expect Banca Mifel to maintain manageable asset quality, with NPAs around 2.5% and net charge-offs at 0.5% for 2026. As of 2025, Banca Mifel's NPAs and net charge-off ratios stood at 2.5% and 0.8%, resulting in a compound ratio of 3.3%, a level that we consider adequate given the bank's portfolio mix and that compares favorably with the Mexican banking system's average of 4.9%. This also reflects an improvement from the bank's levels of around 4.5% in 2020 and 2021, when the mortgage portfolio accounted for 35% of the total loan book. "Moreover, we expect Banca Mifel to maintain a cautious approach toward riskier sectors, such as construction, which it has significantly reduced to less than 10% of the portfolio in 2025, from 22% of total loans in 2018. Additionally, we anticipate the bank will maintain adequate concentration levels, with its top 20 loans accounting for less than 25% of the total loan book. "Finally, we expect the bank's coverage ratio to remain around 75%. This reflects the bank's loan book composition, with approximately 20% consisting of mortgages secured by physical collateral, reducing the need for higher provisioning. However, coverage for the commercial and consumer segments remains adequate, with both exceeding 200%." Banca Mifel continues to rely significantly on wholesale funding. As of March 2026, Banca Mifel's funding base consisted of deposits (56% of total funding), repurchase agreements (26%), development bank credit facilities (17%), and long-term debt (1%). The deposit base is split between time deposits (60%) and demand deposits (40%). Mifel's strategy to expand its deposit base has resulted in lower funding costs at 5.7% in 2025, from 7.9% in 2024, and has allowed the bank's stable funding ratio to remain above 100%. On the other hand, wholesale deposits represent roughly half of the deposit base, which S&P deems more vulnerable under stress conditions or negative economic cycles. Mifel continues to rely on wholesale funding, mainly through credit lines from development banks. Additionally, the bank has a local debt program under which it successfully issued Mexican peso (MXN) 1.5 billion in 2023. This marked the bank's first bond placement on the stock exchange and the second green bond issued by a commercial bank in the Mexican market. S&P said, "While Mifel plans to issue up to US$300 million during 2026, we don't expect that to significantly alter its funding structure, because market debt will represent less than 5% of total funding. We therefore expect deposits to remain the primary funding source, accounting for approximately 60% of total funding, followed by repurchase agreements (20%), loans from development banks (15%), and long-term debt (5%)." The bank's robust investment portfolio backs its stable liquidity. As of March 2026, Mifel maintained an investment portfolio exceeding MXN61 billion, accounting for approximately 30% of its total assets. The portfolio primarily consists of trading and available-for-sale securities, with minimal exposure to held-to-maturity assets. This contributes to stable liquidity, reflected in a regulatory liquidity coverage ratio of 107% as of 2025. Additionally, its broad liquid assets provide strong coverage of wholesale maturities at 1.5x, and S&P expects them to continue to do so over the next 12 months. S&P said, "We apply a one-notch positive comparable ratings (CRA) adjustment to Banca Mifel's SACP. Our comparative adjustment reflects our view that the bank is undergoing a transition to improve its capitalization through various capital management initiatives. These efforts include the issuance of additional Tier 1 subordinated notes, stable loan growth balanced by consistent internal capital generation, and prudent risk-weighted asset allocation with limited exposure to high capital-consumption sectors (such as construction). Moreover, the bank maintains a dividend policy consistent with historical levels, supporting capital retention. We also expect the bank will maintain positive profitability, supported by stable asset quality and a contained cost of risk. In our view, the bank's proactive approach to capital planning and risk management, along with its solid financial performance, enhance its overall creditworthiness. Should any of these metrics materially deviate from our base-case scenario, we could revise our comparative adjustment, potentially leading to a rating adjustment. "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that in the next 12-24 months, the bank's consistent loan book growth and revenue generation will contribute to sound capitalization, with RAC levels around 10%. Moreover, we believe asset quality will remain manageable, with NPAs standing at around 2.5% and net charge-offs below 1%. Finally, we believe that the bank will maintain a funding base primarily composed of wholesale deposits. "We could downgrade Banca Mifel within the next 12 months if the bank's overall capital management and strategy results in a RAC ratio forecast consistently below 10%. In such a scenario, we could remove the positive comparable ratings adjustment. "We could upgrade Banca Mifel's ratings if its RAC ratio consistently remains above 15%. However, we view this as an unlikely scenario over the next 12 months." =============== X X X X X X X X =============== LATAM: Tourism Observatories Can Strengthen Sustainable Tourism --------------------------------------------------------------- World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) launched a new publication highlighting how tourism observatories can strengthen sustainable tourism development in Latin America and the Caribbean by improving data-driven decision-making, governance, and destination management. "Shaping Sustainable Tourism - the Role of Tourism Observatories in Latin America and the Caribbean," was presented during the 1st World Travel Market (WTM) Latin America Ministers’ Summit held in Sao Paulo. The report emphasizes the importance of regular, timely, reliable and locally generated data for managing tourism sustainably. Tourism observatories -- such as UN Tourism and the International Network of Sustainable Tourism Observatories (INSTO) -- enable destinations to monitor key indicators, including supply and demand trends, resource use and tourism capacities, and translate this information into actionable insights for planning, investment, and policy decisions. It also underscores the importance of participatory governance, showing how observatories create platforms for public and private stakeholders to align priorities, strengthen coordination, and support more transparent and accountable tourism. The analysis provides an overview of how tourism observatories operate and presents a series of case studies and best practices from across Latin America and the Caribbean. The findings highlight that tourism observatories can contribute to better governance by enabling early identification of risks and opportunities supporting integrated decision-making, and improving the measurement of economic, social and environmental sustainability, particularly at the destination level. The publication comes amid increased engagement by international organizations in supporting sustainable tourism programs in Latin America and the Caribbean, highlighting how investment in tourism observatories can bridge national strategies and local action while strengthening transparent, accountable, and sustainability‑focused destination governance. WTM Latin America was held April 14-16. The event featured a range of activities including the 1st Tourism Ministers’ Summit which brought together Ministers of Tourism and ministerial representatives from the region. Under the theme "Latin American Tourism: Responsible and Regenerative for the Future," the Summit fostered strategic dialogue on the future of the sector in Latin America. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000. . * * * End of Transmission * * *