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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Tuesday, July 21, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 144
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Boost for Milei as Monthly Inflation Read Dips Below 2%
CAPEX S.A: Fitch Hikes Local-Currency IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
PETROQUIMICA COMODORO: Fitch Assigns 'B' Rating to Sr. Unsec. Notes
B R A Z I L
AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES: Chapter 15 Case Summary
BRAZIL: IDB OKs $53MM Loan to Piaui State to Modernize Fiscal Mgmt.
COSAN SA: Moody's Lowers CFR to B1, Alters Outlook to Negative
GLOBO COMUNICACAO: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
USINAS SIDERURGICAS: Fitch Affirms BB Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Promotes Free Zones During U.S. Trade Roadshow
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: Inflation Rate Rose 0.8% in June
P U E R T O R I C O
IES ELEVATOR: Unsecured Creditors to Split $20K over 60 Months
U R U G U A Y
BANCO BTG: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Boost for Milei as Monthly Inflation Read Dips Below 2%
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Buenos Aires Times reports that Argentina's monthly inflation rate
fell below the two-percent mark in June for the first time since
August 2025, furnishing President Javier Milei's government with
some timely good news.
With his government on the back foot following a scandal-driven
Cabinet reshuffle, Milei and his officials were able to cheer
figures published by the INDEC national statistics bureau that
showed prices rose 1.9 percent in June, according to Buenos Aires
Times.
The bureau's report extends the slowdown that began in April, the
report notes. Inflation has slowed since March’s peak of 3.4
percent and has now slipped below the desired two-percent mark, the
report relays.
Argentina's inflation woes, however, are far from over, the report
discloses. Prices have risen 16.8 percent so far this year,
according to INDEC. Annual inflation remains stubbornly high at
33.5 percent, the report notes.
Market analysts had forecast inflation of between 1.5 percent and
two percent, based largely on recent data from Buenos Aires City,
the report says.
June's figure was driven by rises in housing, utilities and fuel
prices, which increased 3.5 percent, the report discloses.
Recreation and culture posted the sharpest monthly increase of 4.2
percent, while communications (0.9 percent) and clothing and
footwear (0.4 percent) rose more modestly, the report relays.
Core inflation – which excludes seasonal factors and regulated
prices – was 1.6 percent, the lowest value since July 2025.
Seasonal prices produced the largest monthly spike at 3.4 percent,
the report notes.
"The three-month rolling [inflation] average fell by 0.5 percentage
points (p.p.) compared with May, reaching its lowest level since
October last year and reflecting the strength of the
disinflationary process," said the Economy Ministry in a post on
social media, the report relates.
The data was welcomed by Milei and his top officials, the report
notes. The President reposted several messages on X celebrating
the lowest inflation reading since last October, the report
discloses.
Newly appointed presidential spokesperson Adrian Ravier struck a
similarly upbeat tone, projecting confidence that inflation is no
longer a cause for concern, the report says.
Economy Minister Luis 'Toto' Caputo posted on X that June's data
reflected "the strength of the disinflation process" under
President Milei, noting that the headline rate was the lowest
monthly figure since August 2025, the report relays.
Caputo also highlighted that food and non-alcoholic beverages rose
1.3 percent last month, while clothing and footwear increased just
0.4 percent, the report says.
Cost-of-living indicators also climbed, the minister confirmed. The
Basic Food Basket (CBA) rose 1.3 percent, while the Total Basic
Basket (CBT) – used to calculate the poverty line – increased
2.2 percent, the report discloses.
The report notes that Santiago Casas, chief economist at the
EcoAnalytics consultancy firm, said that “the breakdown of the
data points to a very positive outlook.”
"Goods rose by just 1.4 percent month-on-month and, within this
category, food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded an increase of
only 1.3 percent, confirming that disinflation is spreading to
mass-market consumer goods," he noted, the report says.
But not everyone was ready to declare a turning point.
"Beyond June's specific figure, what matters will be watching the
inflation trend in the coming months. What will really matter is
whether inflation can sustain that level [below two percent] over
time," said Javier Bongiovanni, an economist at the Fundación
Libertad think tank, the report discloses.
Since taking office in December 2023, Milei has implemented a
strict austerity programme that eliminated Argentina's chronic
fiscal deficit and brought inflation down from triple digits to the
current annual rate of 33.5 percent – all within two years, the
report relays.
But the adjustment has come at a cost: deep cuts to public
spending, the closure of state agencies, tens of thousands of
layoffs and a sharp erosion of wages and pensions, the report
says.
Argentina's economy grew 0.7 percent in the first quarter, buoyed
by primary exports and financial intermediation. But the recovery
remains uneven, with those sectors driving growth while industry
and commerce continue to contract, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country’s economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota) — with an approved immediate
disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's
IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start
to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged
strategy.
On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended
Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20
billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement
of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an
associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is
expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and
bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital
markets.
Fitch Ratings, on May 5, 2026, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to
'B-' from 'CCC+'. The rating Outlook is Stable.
S&P Global Ratings, on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P
also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating
to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign
currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In
addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to
'CCC+' from 'CCC'. Its 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment
is unchanged.
Moody’s Ratings, on July 17, 2025 upgraded the Government of
Argentina’s long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer
ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from
positive. The upgrade reflects its view that the extensive
liberalization of exchange and (to a lesser extent) capital
controls, alongside a new International Monetary Fund (IMF)
program, support the availability of hard currency liquidity and
ease pressure on external finances. This reduces the likelihood of
a credit event.
DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024, and
confirmed such ratings in November 2025.
CAPEX S.A: Fitch Hikes Local-Currency IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Capex S.A.'s (Capex) Long-Term Local
Currency (LC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B' from 'B-' and
affirmed the Long-Term Foreign Currency (FC) IDR at 'B-'. Fitch has
also affirmed the company's USD188 million senior unsecured bonds
due 2028 at 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable.
The LC IDR upgrade reflects improvement in Capex's business
environment driven by Argentina's (B-/Stable) recent upgrade, while
the FC IDR remains capped by the Country Ceiling of 'B-'. Capex's
improvement of its U.S. dollar-denominated leverage profile and
EBITDA interest coverage further supports the LC IDR.
Capex's relatively small production and reserve base constrain its
rating to the low end of the 'B' rating category. However, vertical
integration through its generation plant provides some benefit to
the issuer's overall risk profile.
Key Rating Drivers
Counterparty Exposure Improved: Capex's counterparty exposure has
improved following Argentina's sovereign IDR upgrade to 'B-' from
'CCC+' and the broader improvement in the operating environment.
Like other power generators in Argentina, Capex collects payments
from CAMMESA, which concentrates more than 10% of the group's total
sales.
Resolution 400/2025, effective November 2025, incorporated the
variable cost of gas consumed for thermal generation into CAMMESA's
recognized remuneration, resulting in higher energy revenue and
improved segment margins at around 60%. Fitch expects this
framework to support stronger and more predictable cash flows from
the power segment on a sustained basis, provided dispatch levels
remain stable, and the regulatory scheme continues to be
implemented as currently structured.
Stronger Operating Environment: Capex's LC IDR was upgraded to 'B'
from 'B-', reflecting the company's exposure to the local economy
and lower regulatory risk. Argentina's sovereign rating is no
longer consistent with a distressed environment.
For rated Argentine corporates whose LC IDR exceeds their FC IDR,
Fitch aligns the foreign-currency issue rating with the issuer's LC
IDR. Fitch believes exchange and capital controls, rather than
issuer-specific credit weakness, would most likely drive any
foreign-currency default or default-like process, based on
historical precedents in Argentina. In these cases, Fitch assigns
Recovery Ratings above Argentina's Recovery Ratings of 'RR3',
allowing for a one-notch uplift from the FC IDR.
Leverage Profile: Fitch expects Capex's USD-denominated gross
leverage to remain below 3.0x in FY27-FY29, from an estimated 3.4x
in FY26, despite higher capex and debt remaining around USD510
million. Leverage should continue to be supported by incremental
EBITDA from the Oil & Gas segment, which represented 63% of sales
in FY26, driven by unconventional production at Agua del Cajón. In
Fitch's view, cash flow generation should also benefit from a more
supportive remuneration framework in the energy business, improving
visibility and providing additional deleveraging capacity.
Small Production Profile: Capex's ratings are constrained by its
production of less than 20,000 boed, placing it at the low end of
the 'B' category. The company´s small and concentrated production
profile in Argentina exposes it to operational and macroeconomic
risks typical of small-scale oil and gas producers. Fitch expects
Capex's production to average 17,000 boed between FY27 to FY29. As
of April 2026, 70% of the company's proven reserves (1P)
corresponded to oil. Capex had 1P of 112 million boe and Reserve
Life Index (RLI) of 20 years. An upgrade would require production
above 45,000 boed.
Higher Capital Investments: Fitch estimates Capex will invest about
USD180 million per year over the next three years in unconventional
development at Agua del Cajon and Pampa del Castillo to add
reserves and support production, and in the construction of the ADS
solar farm. Under Fitch's capex assumptions, CFO covers annual
capex by 0.8x, leading to negative FCF through the rating horizon.
Peer Analysis
Capex's closest peer is Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia (PCR;
B/Stable). Both companies derive most of their revenue from
hydrocarbon production and electricity, while PCR benefits from
higher diversification and greater access to hard-currency cash
flows from operations outside Argentina. Capex expected production
of 17,000 boed is lower that PCR's averaging 19,500 boed.
Capex has majority electricity revenue exposure to CAMMESA, while
PCR's revenue is more evenly split through private clients in the
MATER program. PCR's applicable Country Ceiling is Ecuador's 'B+'
as Ecuadorian cash flows plus cash held abroad, covers its hard
currency interest expense by 1.5x for the next four years.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Fitch's end-of-period USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,891 in 2026,
2,232 in 2027 and 2,446 in 2028;
- Fitch's average foreign USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,671 in 2026,
2,062 in 2027 and 2,260 in 2028;
- Average working interest production of 17,000 boed in FY27-FY29;
- Fitch's price deck for Brent crude oil per barrel of USD87 in
2026, USD65 in 2027, and USD60 in 2028 and 2029;
- The company delivers annual electricity production of about 4,100
gigawatt-hour;
- Reserve replacement meets or exceeds 100% of 1P reserves over the
rating horizon;
- Capex of USD534 million in FY27-FY29, with an annual average of
USD180 million;
- No dividend payments occur.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bb', Lower), sector characteristics
('bb', Moderate), market and competitive positioning ('b-',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('b', Moderate),
company operational characteristics ('b-', Higher), profitability
('b+', Moderate), financial structure ('bb-', Moderate), and
financial flexibility ('b', Higher).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical
year FY25, 40% for the forecast year FY26 and 40% for the forecast
year FY27.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and has no impact.
The governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'b+' has no impact.
The SCP is 'b'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Country Ceiling considerations apply and result in an adjustment of
-1 notch.
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that Capex would be a going concern
(GC) in bankruptcy and that it would be reorganized rather than
liquidated.
- A 10% administrative claim
- The GC EBITDA is estimated at USD150 million. The GC EBITDA
estimate reflects Fitch's view of a sustainable,
post-reorganization EBITDA level on which Fitch bases the valuation
of Capex.
- Enterprise value multiple of 3.0x.
Following the upgrade of Argentina's sovereign rating to 'B-' from
'CCC+', the previous variation applied to recovery cap no longer
applies, as Argentina's sovereign rating is no longer considered to
be consistent with a distressed environment.
Under the country groups specified in Fitch's "Country-Specific
Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria", Argentina falls under
group D, where Recovery Ratings are capped at 'RR4'. Fitch
believes, based on its bespoke recovery analysis, that Capex's
recovery prospects comfortably exceed the range implied for an
'RR4' under the criteria.
In addition, given that capital controls remain in place in
Argentina, Fitch believes that a default or default-like process
would more likely occur due to capital controls rather than
idiosyncratic corporate reasons. Based on historical precedents,
Fitch has observed that recoveries from defaults driven by capital
controls in Argentina have exceeded the RR4 threshold; therefore,
the senior unsecured notes are rated 'B'/'RR3'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A downgrade of Argentina's Country Ceiling;
- Total debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or more;
- Weakening liquidity;
- Inability to extend short-term maturities.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Net production rising on a sustainable basis to 45,000 boed;
- Increase in reserve size and diversification while maintaining a
minimum 1P reserve life of close to 10 years.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of April 2026, Capex had available cash and equivalents of USD81
million while having short-term debt of USD122 million, with its
largest obligation being a USD118 million international bond due in
2028.
Fitch views the company's liquidity as reliant on continued market
access and timely refinancing, given the gap between available
liquidity and short-term financial obligations. This is
particularly relevant as near-term maturities include the Clase V
notes, which begin amortizing in August 2026, Clase VI due in
September 2026, Clase IV due in February 2027, and Clase X and
Clase VII due in 2027. In Fitch's view, successful refinancing of
upcoming maturities remains a key assumption.
Issuer Profile
Capex is an integrated company focused on the exploration and
exploitation of hydrocarbons and the generation of electric,
thermal and renewable energy in Argentina.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The Climate.VS at 2035 for Capex is 52.
While elevated, this score does not affect the current ratings,
given the long-time horizon over which the transition is expected
to occur. Any potential future rating impact may change over time,
reflecting developments in Fitch's assessment of these risks.
ESG Considerations
Capex S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for GHG Emissions &
Air Quality due to the growing importance of the continued
development and execution of the company's energy-transition
strategy, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is
relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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Capex S.A. LT IDR B- Affirmed B-
LC LT IDR B Upgrade B-
senior unsecured LT B Affirmed RR3 B
PETROQUIMICA COMODORO: Fitch Assigns 'B' Rating to Sr. Unsec. Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'B' rating with a Recovery Rating of
'RR4' to the benchmarked size senior unsecured notes to be
co-issued by Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia S.A.'s (PCR) and its
subsidiary Luz de Tres Picos S.A. The net proceeds will be used to
refinance debt, fund capex and working capital, and for general
corporate purposes. Fitch currently rates PCR's Long-Term Foreign
and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) 'B'. The Rating
Outlook is Stable.
PCR's ratings reflect its strong business profile, broader
geographic diversification, and greater access to hard currency
cash flow through its U.S. expansion. In the renewables segment,
Fitch expects PCR's exposure to Compania Administradora del Mercado
Mayorista Electrico (CAMMESA), which administers Argentina's
wholesale power market, to fall below 30% by 2027 from 33%.
CAMMESA's credit profile has improved due to Argentina's sovereign
upgrade and a more favorable operating environment.
Key Rating Drivers
Greater Business Diversification: PCR's entry into the U.S. shale
oil and gas (O&G) business strengthens its business profile by
enhancing geographic diversification and increasing hard currency
cash flow generation outside Argentina's operating environment.
Fitch expects the operation to add about 4,000 barrels of oil
equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2028, equivalent to roughly 20% of
total production. In power generation, the company benefits from
U.S. dollar-denominated, long-term power purchase agreements with
private-sector clients and CAMMESA under the RenovAr framework.
Fitch forecasts O&G production to average 19,500 boe/d over the
rating horizon, with the segment contributing about 60% of EBITDA.
Fitch expects the renewables business to contribute around 39% of
EBITDA, with the remainder generated by the cement business.
Counterparty Exposure Improved: PCR's counterparty exposure has
improved following the upgrade of Argentina's sovereign IDR to 'B-'
from 'CCC+', as well as broader improvement in the country's
operating environment. Like other participants in Argentina's power
generation market, PCR receives payments from CAMMESA. However,
PCR's revenues are linked to RenovAr contracts, which benefit from
priority payment status and are backed by FODER and World Bank
guarantees in the event of non-payment. In 2024 and 2025, CAMMESA
paid invoices in approximately 42 days, in line with contracted
payment terms.
O&G Constrains Ratings: PCR's O&G business remains the main
contributor to EBITDA and a key rating driver given its hard
currency cash flow generation and contribution to geographic
diversification. However, the segment remains constrained by its
modest scale relative to rating peers, with production below 45,000
boe/d and 1P reserves below 400 mmboe. Risks associated with
operating in Argentina are partially mitigated by the company's
Ecuadorian and U.S. oil operations, which generate enough EBITDA to
cover consolidated hard currency interest expense over the rating
horizon.
Adequate Leverage: Fitch expects PCR's USD gross leverage to peak
at 4.0x in 2026, with debt near USD995 million as it completes the
Olavarria and Mataco III wind projects. Gross leverage should then
improve toward 3.0x by 2028, supported by incremental EBITDA from
new renewable capacity and lower capex after the expansion plan is
completed. Fitch forecasts neutral to positive FCF from 2027
onward, as installed generation capacity reaches 768 MW by the end
of 2026 and investment needs decline. Fitch expects
EBITDA-to-interest expense to remain above 5.0x throughout the
rating horizon.
Peer Analysis
PCR's closest peer in Argentina is Capex S.A. (B-/Stable), an
integrated oil and gas production and generation company. Capex has
majority electricity revenue exposure to CAMMESA, while PCR's
revenue is more evenly split through private clients in the MATER
program.
The ratings for PCR, GeoPark Limited (B+/Stable), SierraCol Energy
Limited (B+/Stable) and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (B+/Stable) are all
constrained to the 'B' category because of the inherent operational
risks associated with the small scale and low diversification of
their oil and gas production.
Over the rating horizon, Fitch expects PCR's production to average
19,500 boe/d, higher than Capex's 17,500 boe/d and lower than
SierraCol's expected production of 44,000 boe/d and Gran Tierra's
45,000 boe/d.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Issuance of benchmark-sized senior unsecured notes;
- Fitch's end-of-period USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,891 in 2026,
2,232 in 2027 and 2,446 in 2028;
- Fitch's average foreign USD/ARS exchange rate of 1,671 in 2026,
2,062 in 2027 and 2,260 in 2028;
- Average working interest production of 19,800 boe/d in
2026-2029;
- Fitch's price deck for Brent crude oil per barrel of USD87 in
2026, USD65 in 2027, and USD60 in 2028 and 2029;
- Growth in cement sales linked to Fitch's real GDP growth
expectations for Argentina;
- Capex of USD780 million in 2026-2029, with an annual average of
USD195 million;
- Average dividends of USD9 million paid yearly in 2026-2029;
- Renewables have 98% availability and a 42% capacity factor at a
price of USD54/MWh over the rating horizon;
- Average rate of 10% for rollover of short-term debt;
- CAMMESA/FODER payments are made on time.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management (bb, Lower), sector characteristics (bb,
Moderate), market and competitive positioning (b-, Moderate),
diversification and asset quality (bb-, Moderate), company
operational characteristics (b-, Higher), profitability (b+,
Moderate), financial structure (bb-, Moderate), and financial
flexibility (b+, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the forecast year 2026,
40% for the forecast year 2027 and 40% for the forecast year 2028.
- 'B+' to 'CC' considerations apply in its analysis and have no
impact.
- The Governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'b' has no impact.
- The SCP is 'b'.
- Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in a Local
Currency IDR of 'B'.
- Country Ceiling considerations apply and result in no adjustment
to the Foreign Currency IDR as per Fitch's "Corporate Rating
Criteria." PCR's applicable Country Ceiling is that of Ecuador at
'B+'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that PCR would be a going concern
(GC) in bankruptcy and that it would be reorganized rather than
liquidated.
GC Approach:
- A 10% administrative claim;
- The GC EBITDA is estimated at USD270 million. The GC EBITDA
estimate reflects Fitch's view of a sustainable,
post-reorganization EBITDA level upon which Fitch bases the
valuation of PCR;
- Enterprise value multiple of 4.0x.
Under the country groups specified in Fitch's "Country-Specific
Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria," Argentina falls under
group D, where Recovery Ratings are capped at 'RR4'. Therefore, the
senior unsecured notes are rated 'B'/'RR4'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Major operational disruptions at key assets outside of Argentina,
resulting in a significant decrease in hard currency cash flows;
- Deterioration of Argentina's operating environment;
- Material underperformance of the Renewable segment that leads to
lower EBITDA contribution;
- Sustained net production below 16,000 boe/d;
- Material delay in CAMMESA/FODER payments that materially affects
working capital;
- A sustained deterioration of credit metrics to total debt/EBITDA
of 4.0x or more;
- Weakening liquidity.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Improvement of Argentina's operating environment;
- Net production of 45,000 boe/d while maintaining 1P reserve life
of at least seven years;
- Sustained total debt to EBITDA below 3.0x over the rating
horizon.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
PCR reported cash of around USD177 million as of 1Q26, including
USD86 million held outside Argentina, and USD35 million in offshore
short-term investments against short-term debt of USD145 million.
Liquidity is supported by cash balances that cover short-term debt
maturities by 1.2x, while Fitch forecasts EBITDA interest coverage
to remain above 5.0x over the rating horizon.
PCR also benefits from a manageable maturity profile and a track
record of accessing local bank funding and the domestic debt
market, as well as multilateral funding such as the Inter-American
Development Bank and International Finance Corporation which
provide additional financial flexibility if needed.
Issuer Profile
PCR is an Argentine independent energy company focused on three
main activities: the exploration and production of hydrocarbons,
the production and distribution of cement and construction
materials, and renewable power generation.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for PCR.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery
----------- ------ --------
Luz de Tres Picos S.A.
senior unsecured LT B New Rating RR4
Petroquimica Comodoro
Rivadavia S.A.
senior unsecured LT B New Rating RR4
===========
B R A Z I L
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AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES: Chapter 15 Case Summary
----------------------------------------------
Lead Debtor: Ambipar Participacoes e Empreendimentos S.A.
Avenida Pacaembu, no. 1088
Sao Paulo, State of Sao Paulo 01234-0000
Brazil
Business Description: Ambipar provides environment management and
integrated environmental solutions. The company's services include
waste management, water and effluent management, waste-to-energy,
decarbonization, emergency response, industrial services,
environmental consulting, remediation, and port and offshore
support. Ambipar serves sectors including agribusiness, food and
beverage, mining, chemicals and petrochemicals, oil and gas,
construction, pharmaceuticals, railways, telecommunications, and
steel and metallurgy, and operates across more than 40 countries
on six continents.
Chapter 15 Petition Date: July 9, 2026
Court: United States Bankruptcy Court
Southern District of Texas
Four affiliates that concurrently filed voluntary petitions for
relief under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code:
Debtor Case No.
------ --------
Ambipar Participacoes e Empreendimentos S.A. 26-90710
Ambipar Lux S.a r.l. 26-90711
Environmental ESG Participacoes S.A. 26-90712
Emergencia Participacoes S.A. 26-90713
Judge: Hon. Alfredo R Perez
Foreign Representative: Thiago da Costa Silva
Avenida Pacaembu, no. 1088
Sao Paulo, State of Sao Paulo 01234-0000
Brazil
Foreign Proceeding: The Ambipar Group's judicial reorganization
proceeding in Brazil
Foreign
Representative's
Counsel: Jason S. Brookner, Esq.
GRAY REED
1300 Post Oak Blvd., Suite 2000
Houston, TX 77056
Tel: (713) 986-7000
E-mail: jbrookner@grayreed.com
Estimated Assets: Unknown
Estimated Debt: Unknown
Full-text copies of the Chapter 15 petitions are available for
free
on PacerMonitor at:
https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/HX52SOA/Ambipar_Participacoes_e_Empreendimentos__txsbke-26-90710__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA
https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/2WZVM6I/Ambipar_Lux_Sa_rl__txsbke-26-90711__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA
https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/HB5LP5I/Environmental_ESG_Participacoes__txsbke-26-90712__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA
https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/5GUYCRQ/Emergencia_Participacoes_SA__txsbke-26-90713__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA
BRAZIL: IDB OKs $53MM Loan to Piaui State to Modernize Fiscal Mgmt.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The Board of Executive Directors of the Inter-American Development
Bank (IDB) approved a $53 million investment loan to improve
revenue and expenditure management in the Brazilian state of
Piaui.
The project, part of the third phase of the IDB-backed PROFISCO
program in Brazil, will modernize fiscal management in Piauí,
strengthening fiscal sustainability and supporting the alignment of
the state with Brazil’s consumption tax reform.
The project will improve public sector governance, planning, and
transparency. It includes workforce training and fiscal education
programs for the general population, modernization of digital
infrastructure and cybersecurity, and expanded use of data
analytics and artificial intelligence.
In tax administration, the project will improve revenue collection,
update the taxpayer registry, modernize taxpayer services, and
enhance oversight through digital tools and artificial
intelligence. It will also support more effective budgeting,
expenditure management, accounting, and tax-related legal
processes, helping the state enhance fiscal health and improve
public spending outcomes, and the delivery of public services.
In addition, the project will strengthen the management and
recovery of public debt, modernize legal processes, and enhance the
management of fiscal and legal risks. It will also support more
efficient handling of court-ordered payments and legal claims
through digital tools and streamlined procedures.
The project’s main beneficiaries include taxpayers, who will
benefit from improved systems and processes for meeting their tax
obligations, and the broader population of Piauí, who will benefit
from greater fiscal transparency and more effective public
policies.
The IDB loan has a 24.5-year term, a six-year grace period, and an
interest rate based on SOFR. Counterpart financing totals $5.3
million. Following approval by the IDB's Board of Executive
Directors, the program will move through the required Brazilian
legal and administrative processes before implementation begins.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
In October 2024, Moody's Ratings upgraded the Government of
Brazil's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to Ba1
from Ba2, the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba1 from (P)Ba2;
and maintained the positive outlook. S&P Global Ratings raised on
Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global scale ratings on Brazil to
'BB' from 'BB-'. Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with
a Stable Outlook. DBRS' credit rating for Brazil was last reported
at BB with stable outlook at July 2023.
COSAN SA: Moody's Lowers CFR to B1, Alters Outlook to Negative
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded Cosan S.A. ("Cosan") Corporate
Family Rating and Cosan Overseas Limited's backed senior unsecured
notes rating to B1 from Ba3. The outlook on both entities was
changed to negative from ratings under review.
The rating action concludes the review for downgrade initiated on
February 24, following the announcement of Raízen S.A.'s
restructuring process and the uncertainties surrounding its
implications for Cosan.
The review for downgrade focused on the potential consequences of
Raizen's restructuring for Cosan's credit profile, as well as
Cosan's ability to further reduce holding-level debt through
liability management initiatives and divestments while preserving
adequate liquidity and access to dividends from its core
investments.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of Cosan's ratings to B1 from Ba3 reflects weak
holding-level interest coverage and the company's continued
reliance on asset monetization to further improve its capital
structure through debt reduction. The B1 rating also incorporates
Cosan's lower portfolio diversification, which reduces both the
diversity and amount of future dividend income.
These challenges are balanced by meaningful improvements in Cosan's
capital structure in 2025-2026, including lower debt levels and,
consequently, lower interest expenses. Moreover, Cosan's portfolio
is anchored by Compass, Moove, Radar and Rumo, with Compass
representing Cosan's main source of dividends given its predictable
cash generation and track record of shareholder distributions. At
the same time, although Raizen's out-of-court restructuring has
materially reduced dividend income to Cosan, Moody's do not expect
contagion through financial obligations or liabilities.
The negative outlook reflects the risk that Cosan's deleveraging
initiatives will not reduce debt levels and interest expense
sufficiently to align with dividend income from its current
investees. Moody's expects negative holding-company free cash flow
over the next 12 to 18 months, driven by elevated interest expense
and lower dividend income from subsidiaries. The outlook also
reflects uncertainties around the timing and value of potential
divestitures, as well as future dividend income from investees,
which could further delay deleveraging at Cosan.
During the review period, Cosan executed a number of initiatives
that strengthened its credit profile, including the secondary
public offering of Compass, which raised BRL2.3 billion. In
addition, the company announced the sale of part of Radar's land
portfolio, generating BRL586 million attributable to Cosan through
dividends.
With these initiatives and proceeds from the BRL10.5 billion
capitalization completed in late 2025, the company prepaid
approximately BRL9.3 billion of debt, including the full redemption
of its 2029, 2030 and 2031 senior notes and the early redemption of
several debentures. These measures materially reduced
holding-level debt from BRL21.9 billion at the end of 2025 to
around BRL12.4 billion in June 2026, pro forma considering the use
of proceeds from divestitures for debt reduction.
Cosan's liquidity profile is adequate, supported by a cash position
of BRL7.7 billion as of March 2026. The debt prepayment has reduced
liquidity and refinancing risk, with no significant maturities
until 2029.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
A change in outlook to stable, or upward rating pressure, could
develop if Cosan materially reduces holding-company debt, improves
interest coverage on a sustained basis and maintains adequate
liquidity. Greater diversification or a higher amount of dividend
income from investees could also support positive pressure on the
outlook or ratings.
A downgrade could result if Cosan is unable to further reduce
holding-company debt, if proceeds from divestments are not used for
debt repayment, if interest coverage remains weak for a prolonged
period or if liquidity deteriorates. Lower dividends from key
subsidiaries, weaker credit quality at the investee level or a
significant reduction in Cosan's liquidity cushion from cash use
for debt reduction could also pressure the ratings.
Headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Cosan S.A. is an investment
holding company with core investments in natural gas, lubricants,
rail-based logistics and farmland management. Its current portfolio
includes a controlling stake in Compass Gás e Energia S.A., a
regulated natural gas platform anchored by Comgás, Brazil's
largest natural gas distributor; Moove Lubricants Holdings, a
global lubricants platform; a minority stake in Rumo S.A., Brazil's
largest independent freight rail operator; and Radar Gestão de
Investimentos S.A., a farmland investment and management platform.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Investment
Holding Companies and Conglomerates published in April 2023.
GLOBO COMUNICACAO: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.'s
Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs)
and unsecured notes at 'BB+'. Fitch also affirmed Globo's National
Scale Rating at 'AAA(bra)'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Globo's ratings reflect its conservative financial policy and
strong competitive position in Brazil's media sector. The company
benefits from strong local content, including live events and
shows, in a market where free-to-air TV remains the dominant
advertising platform. It also benefits from a multiplatform and
multichannel distribution strategy.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that EBITDA margins
will remain in the low double digits over the next two years.
Margins would remain below those of its global investment-grade
peers amid the challenging industry trends and Brazil's (BB/Stable)
declining pay-TV subscriber base.
Key Rating Drivers
Net Cash Supports Flexibility: Globo has one of the region's
strongest financial structures, and its ratings benefit from a
conservative financial policy. Its cash position fully covers total
debt, giving the company significant financial flexibility to
withstand industry pressures and execute its growth strategy. In
1Q26, Globo's cash and cash equivalents of BRL10.2 billion exceeded
total debt of BRL3.9 billion. Fitch expects Globo to maintain a
solid cash position over the rating horizon without incurring
significant debt.
Strong Domestic Position: Globo's strong business position as
Brazil's leading media company is a key factor in its ratings. The
company's broadcast network comprises five television stations and
more than 100 independent affiliates that distribute Globo's
content. The network's TV broadcasting audience share is about 32%.
Globoplay is expanding its subscriber base through investments in
content, new production, partnerships and bundled offerings. These
initiatives are expected to remain strategically important for
Globo.
Challenging Media Trends: Globo derives a substantial portion of
its revenue from advertising, which is cyclical and faces
increasing pressure from secular shifts in media consumption. The
Brazilian pay-TV market's decline and the migration to digital
platforms poses structural challenges to linear television
broadcasters over the long term. These risks are partly offset by
Globo's digital revenue growth, the continued expansion of
Globoplay streaming service and its recent entry into the growing
out-of-home segment. These factors may help Globo manage sector
headwinds.
Margin Expansion: Globo's profitability has improved since 2022.
Fitch expects EBITDA margins to remain in the low double digits
over the next two years amid expected higher costs associated with
sports events and sector headwinds. However, operational
improvements and continued media out-of-home growth offer
structural upside. Fitch will monitor Globo's positive
profitability trend and its ability to sustain them at higher
levels. Fitch projects EBITDA at BRL2.0 billion to BRL2.5 billion
in 2026 and 2027 and expects Globo's pre-dividend FCF margins to
remain strong, supported by adequate operating performance and
manageable capex.
Increased Business Diversification: The acquisition of Eletromidia
is strategic and credit positive, as it increases business
diversification away from secular declining segments. Other
traditional media segments face pressure from the shift to digital
media, but out-of-home is benefiting from the as the conversion of
static out-of-home advertising to digital boards provides
incremental revenue opportunities. This segment contributed more
than 20% of Globo's EBITDA in 2025, and this positive
diversification of cash generation will allow the company to
partially offset the decline in the traditional advertising
industry.
Peer Analysis
Globo's closest publicly rated peers include U.S-based media groups
such as Comcast Corporation (A-/Rating Watch Negative), News
Corporation (BBB/Stable), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD;
BB+/Rating Watch Negative), Paramount Skydance (Paramount; BB+/
Rating Watch Negative) and the UK-based ITV plc (ITV;
BBB-/Stable).
Globo is significantly smaller than its U.S. peers in terms of
revenue and EBITDA scale, and lacks geographic diversification,
relying heavily on cyclical advertising, especially with the
declining pay-TV penetration. However, this lack of cash flow
diversification is offset by Globo's stronger capital structure and
strong domestic market position within broadcast television, pay-TV
and out-of-home networks.
Globo compares well with ITV, an UK integrated content producer
that recently announced the sale of its linear TV broadcasting
business to Sky UK. Both have lower diversification and scale than
their U.S. peers, however ITV's rating benefits from a track record
of higher EBITDA margins in a better operating environment. Both
companies have a conservative financial profile, even though Globo
benefits from a net cash position that provides significant
financial flexibility to withstand industry headwinds.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Revenue in the BRL19 billion to BRL20 billion range in
2026-2027;
- Low-double-digit EBITDA margins in 2026-2027;
- Average annual capex of around BRL500 million to BRL600 million;
- No material incremental debt added to the capital structure;
- Dividends in line with those reported in 2025.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bbb-', Lower), sector characteristics
('bb+', Moderate), market and competitive positioning ('bb+',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('bb', Moderate),
company operational characteristics ('bb', Moderate), profitability
('bb+', Higher), financial structure ('a+', Moderate), and
financial flexibility ('bbb+', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical
year 2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast
year 2027.
Assessments of the quantitative financial subfactors also include
bespoke calculations.
The governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'bb' has no impact.
The SCP is 'bb+'.
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in a Local and
Foreign Currency IDR of 'BB+'
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A downgrade of Brazil's Foreign-Currency IDR would likely result
in a negative rating action for Globo's Foreign Currency IDR and
U.S. dollar-denominated notes;
- A downgrade could occur with significant deterioration in the
company's strong liquidity, resulting in positive net debt amount;
- Persistent negative operating EBITDA margins.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Significant improvement in EBITDA margins in line with global
investment-grade companies;
- Sustained positive FCF excluding net interest expense;
- Improvement in the industry fundamentals resulting in a
stabilization of its pay-TV subscribers base.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Globo has a net cash position, with total debt of BRL3.9 billion
and Fitch's adjusted cash and cash equivalents of BRL10.2 billion
at 1Q26. Most of the company's debt consists of three
U.S.-dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes due in 2027, 2030
and 2032, while a minor portion consists of two BRL-denominated
debentures due in 2029 and 2030. Globo hedges its operational and
financial foreign currency exposure over the next 24 months and has
entered swaps linked to the Brazilian interbank deposit rate for
its notes due in 2030 and 2032 through maturity.
Issuer Profile
Globo is the largest media group in Brazil, operating through the
leading broadcast television, pay-TV and out-of-home networks. The
company also owns a streaming platform (Globoplay).
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Globo Comunicacao e
Participacoes S.A. LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
Natl LT AAA(bra) Affirmed AAA(bra)
senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed BB+
USINAS SIDERURGICAS: Fitch Affirms BB Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais
S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings
at 'BB' and National Scale Rating at 'AA+(bra)'. Fitch also
affirmed the 'BB' rating on the senior unsecured notes due 2032
issued by Usiminas International S.a r.l. and guaranteed by
Usiminas. The Rating Outlook on the IDRs and National Scale
Long-Term Rating is Stable.
The ratings reflect Usiminas' leading position in Brazil's flat
steel market, its vertical integration from mining to distribution,
portfolio of value-added products, moderate gross leverage ratios
and sound liquidity. They also reflect a rebound in profitability
as efficiency projects come online and better steel prices in the
local market. Fitch expects Usiminas to remain proactive in its
liability management strategy to avoid major refinancing risks in
the medium term. Ratings constraints include high exposure to
Brazil's domestic market, medium to high-cost position and import
pressure on low-margin products.
Key Rating Drivers
Robust Business Position: Usiminas is vertically integrated across
the value chain, from mining and crude steelmaking to downstream
transformation and distribution. It holds a leading position in
Brazil's flat steel market and maintains a strong presence in the
domestic automotive supply chain niche. Its sales mix is weighted
toward higher value-added products, such as galvanized and heavy
plate, which represented roughly 39% of sales in 2025 and support
pricing resilience and lower demand sensitivity.
Loosening Steel Constrains: Brazil's flat steel market dynamic is
accelerating as import pressure lowers and domestic sales grow. In
May 2026, flat steel imports fell 67% year over year, reducing
import penetration to 13% from 33% in May 2025. Antidumping
measures of up to USD680/tonne on cold rolled coil, heavy plates
and galvanized products cover about 60% of Usiminas' sales. Pending
investigations on hot rolled coil could provide further support if
resolved in 2H26. Pulverized coal injection solutions will further
improve results.
Mining Operations Slowdown: Fitch expects Usiminas' iron ore sales
to ease in 2026 from the 2025 peak, as heavy 1Q26 rainfall
disrupted mining. Logistics, late mine-life challenges and energy
costs may pressure recent COGS/tonne gains. Usiminas plans a
significant mining investment towards 2030, led by the Compactos
project, to extend mine life. Execution remains subject to
feasibility studies, logistics and regulatory risks. Final terms,
including capex size and terms of financing, will be crucial to
evaluate rating impacts.
Limited FCF Generation: Usiminas' EBITDA is forecast at BRL2.7
billion in 2027, supported by higher steel prices and cost savings.
Working capital needs should stay below 1% of revenue. Capex will
rise on cost-containment initiatives, excluding the Compactos
mining project. Fitch's base case indicates a negative 0.9% free
cash flow margin after BRL1.5 billion of capex and less than BRL230
million of dividends. (CFO-capex)/debt is about 2.9% in 2026 and
-2.7% in 2027 as pricing support fades.
Strong Capital Structure: Fitch expects the company to maintain
shareholder return discipline while navigating its expansion
project. Usiminas has maintained moderate to low leverage over the
past five years. Fitch forecasts gross and net debt at about BRL6.7
billion and BRL0.4 billion on average in 2026-2028. 2026 EBITDA
could remain strong if steel antidumping measures are effective.
Fitch forecasts gross and net leverage at 2.6x and 0.0x in 2026,
and 2.9x and 0.2x in 2027.
Peer Analysis
Usiminas' business profile is broadly in line with Companhia
Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN; B/Rating Watch Negative). Both are
highly exposed to Brazil's steel market. CSN is more diversified
through larger mining and cement operations, while Usiminas
benefits from stronger niche positioning. Gerdau S.A.
(BBB/Positive) has a stronger profile than both, supported by
broader geographic diversification, meaningful cash flow from the
U.S. and a more flexible operating model.
Usiminas also trails Gerdau on scale and financial flexibility.
Gerdau has 16 million tons of annual crude steel capacity, compared
with five million for Usiminas and 5.6 million for CSN. Among
Brazilian peers, Gerdau has the strongest balance sheet and the
most manageable debt maturity profile. CSN had gross debt of 5.5x
in 2025, above Usiminas' 3.2x and Gerdau's 1.4x. Usiminas' net
leverage of 0.0x was below Gerdau's 0.8x and CSN's 4.2x.
Internationally, Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (B+/Stable) and JSW Steel
Limited (BB/Positive) have similar flat steel exposure, but both
operate at much larger scale. JSW has a stronger cost position,
ranking in the first half of Wood Mackenzie's crude steel cost
curve, while Cliffs and Usiminas are in the fourth quartile.
Usiminas' 2025 EBITDA leverage of 3.2x was below JSW's 4.9x and
Cliffs' forecast 5.3x in 2026.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Iron ore prices in line with Fitch's commodity price assumptions
(iron ore prices average USD100/ton in 2026, USD90/ton in 2027 and
USD80/ton in 2027);
- Iron ore COGS/ton increase 4% in 2026, and 1% in 2027;
- Iron ore sold (third parties) falls to 7.6 million tons in 2026
and remains at that level;
- Total steel volumes sold remain at 4.4 million tons in 2026 and
beyond;
- Steel Revenue/ton grows to USD1066 in 2026 and falls to USD1028
in 2027;
- Steel EBITDA/ton grows to USD105 in 2026 and falls to USD101 in
2027;
- Iron Ore EBITDA/ton falls to USD10 in 2026 and falls to USD7 in
2027;
- Capex at around BRL1.5 billion in 2026 and in 2027;
- Foreign exchange BRL/USD Rates of 5.12 in 2026, 5.31 in 2027, and
5.31 in 2028.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('bb+', Moderate), sector characteristics
('bbb', Lower), market and competitive positioning ('bbb-',
Moderate), diversification and asset quality ('bb-', Higher),
company operational characteristics ('b+', Moderate), profitability
('b+', Moderate), financial structure ('bbb-', Moderate), and
financial flexibility ('bb+', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 10% weight for the historical year
2025, 10% for the forecast year 2026, 30% for the forecast year
2027, 30% for the forecast year 2028 and 20% for the forecast year
2029.
The governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'bb+' has no impact.
The SCP is 'bb'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of 'BB'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Persistently negative (CFO-capex)/debt ratio;
- Further deterioration of cost position;
- EBITDA margins consistently below 8% through the cycle;
- EBITDA leverage ratios consistently above 4.5x;
- Maintenance of net EBITDA leverage ratios above 3.5x.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA margins higher than 12% through the cycle;
- Increased share of value-added products;
- Consistent and positive FCF generation;
- EBITDA leverage ratios consistently below 3.5x;
- Net EBITDA leverage ratios consistently below 2.5x.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Usiminas has maintained a robust liquidity position and good access
to credit markets, which are important rating considerations.
Usiminas had BRL6.7 billion of cash and marketable securities at
the end of Mar. 31, 2026, 45% of which was held in USD. Moreover,
Usiminas has BRL6.7 billion of debt.
The debt mainly consists of a USD500 million (BRL2.9 billion) note
that matures in 2032. In addition, Usiminas holds BRL3.5 billion of
Brazilian real-denominated debentures that mature from 2028 to
2032, and BRL504 million of forfaiting. Average maturity in BRL is
34 months and in USD is 58 months.
Issuer Profile
Usiminas is the largest domestic supplier of flat steel products in
Brazil. The company has a robust position within the local
automotive industry. It is vertically integrated with blast
furnaces and mines and also exports iron ore.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The Climate.VS for 2035 for Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais
S.A. (Usiminas) is 52.
This is driven by its exposure to long-term physical risks of its
steel and mining operations in Brazil, which include heat, wind and
precipitation. The issuer has been working on several projects to
mitigate this impact, and its forecasts include their respective
capex.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Usiminas
International
S.a r.l.
senior unsecured LT BB Affirmed BB
Usinas Siderurgicas
de Minas Gerais S.A.
(Usiminas) LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Natl LT AA+(bra) Affirmed AA+(bra)
===================================
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Promotes Free Zones During U.S. Trade Roadshow
------------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the Dominican Republic's Embassy in
the United States, together with ProDominicana, Banco Popular
Dominicano, and several government and private sector institutions,
completed the DR Trade & Investment Road Show 2026, a three-city
mission aimed at attracting U.S. investment to the country's
industrial parks and free trade zones.
Held from July 7 to 10, the roadshow stopped in Houston, Texas;
Columbus, Ohio; and Raleigh, North Carolina, bringing together more
than 110 participants, including executives from major U.S.
companies in technology, manufacturing, energy, healthcare,
logistics, aerospace, and financial services, according to
Dominican Today.
Among the participating firms were Google, Lenovo, Lockheed Martin,
First Solar, Cheniere Energy, Excelerate Energy, and Sempra,
alongside financial institutions including PNC Bank, KeyCorp, and
Fifth Third Bank, the report notes.
The Dominican delegation showcased investment opportunities in
several industrial parks and free zones, including Las Americas,
Punta Cana, Santiago, Nigua, Savanna, and Itabo Industrial Park
(PIISA), the report relates.
State and local government officials from Texas, Ohio, and North
Carolina also participated, laying the groundwork for future
cooperation agreements, trade missions, and business referral
initiatives, the report says.
The roadshow supports the Dominican government's strategy to
attract foreign direct investment, strengthen its free zone sector,
expand co-production under CAFTA-DR, diversify regional supply
chains, and position the country as a competitive manufacturing hub
for the U.S. market, the report notes.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
Standard & Poor's credit rating for Dominican Republic was raised
to 'BB' in December 2022 with stable outlook. Moody's credit
rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3 in August 2023
with the outlook changed to positive. Fitch, in December 2023,
affirmed the Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the outlook to positive.
=============
J A M A I C A
=============
JAMAICA: Inflation Rate Rose 0.8% in June
-----------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica's inflation rate rose by 0.8 per cent
in June, according to new figures released by the Statistical
Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
STATIN said the increase was driven mainly by a 4.3 per cent rise
in the Transport division, following higher route taxi and hackney
carriage fares, according to RJR News.
The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division also contributed to
the increase, climbing 0.7 per cent, the report notes. Prices
moved higher for several agricultural products, including carrots,
cabbage, onions and sweet peppers, the report says.
Meanwhile, the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels
division rose 0.5 per cent, reflecting increases in household
rental costs and electricity charges, the report relays.
STATIN says inflation over the twelve months to June -- known as
the point-to-point inflation rate -- was 6.7 per cent, the report
adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a
positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the
Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured
ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1
from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable.
In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to
positive.
=====================
P U E R T O R I C O
=====================
IES ELEVATOR: Unsecured Creditors to Split $20K over 60 Months
--------------------------------------------------------------
IES Elevator Group Corp. filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for
the District of Puerto Rico a Plan of Reorganization dated June 30,
2026.
The Debtor is a company dedicated to the sale, servicing,
installation, and repair of all types of commercial and residential
elevators.
The Debtor generates income from the sale of elevators, as well as
from ongoing installations, maintenance, servicing, and
warranty-related work associated with such systems. The Debtor
acknowledges that Drexyariel Velazquez Rivera, as the sole owner of
the Debtor, may be considered an insider within the meaning of
Section 101(31) of the United States Bankruptcy Code.
The Debtor's filing was primarily necessitated after the
termination of the Debtor's primary line of credit used for the
acquisition of equipment, which caused significant complications in
the Debtor's ability to continue fulfilling services and
operational obligations in the ordinary course of business.
Simultaneously, the Debtor experienced a decline in the number of
secured projects, which further impacted the business's incoming
revenue and overall cash flow.
As a result of these combined circumstances, the Debtor sought
relief under Chapter 11 to stabilize operations, preserve the
business as a going concern, and formulate a feasible
reorganization strategy for the benefit of creditors and all
parties in interest.
This Plan of Reorganization proposes to pay creditors of the Debtor
from: (a) cash reserves as of the date of the Order of Relief; (b)
cash flows generated from the Debtor's post-petition operations;
and (c) cash-flows generated from Debtor's post confirmation
operations.
This Plan provides for payment of Administrative Claims, Priority
Tax Claims, One Class of Secured Claims, One Class of Unsecured
Claims, and a Class of Equity Interest Holders. The instant case
proposes to pay the unsecured creditors a distribution of
$20,000.00 on their respective Allowed Claims.
Class Two consists of the Allowed General Unsecured Claims filed
and/or scheduled by the Debtor, if any, allowed under Sec. 502 of
the
Code. This Class consists of the prepetition unsecured claims
against the Debtor, to the extent allowed, if any. It is estimated
that Allowed Class Two Claims, if any, will be in the amount of
$797,971.54.
Holders of Allowed Class Two General Unsecured Claims shall receive
pro rata distributions in the total amount of $20,000.00, in full
and final satisfaction of their Allowed Claims. The aggregate
distributions to this Class shall not exceed $20,000.00, regardless
of the total amount of Allowed Class Two General Unsecured Claims.
The Class Two distribution shall be funded through sixty equal
monthly installments of $333.33 each, commencing on the first day
of the second month following the Effective Date of the Plan.
Class Three consists of the Equity Interest of the Debtor in the
Property of the Estate. The Debtor will retain its Ownership
Interest in the Property of the Estate.
The Plan will be funded from the income generated or received by
the Reorganized Debtor and the reserves held by the Debtor as of
the Effective Date of the Plan. The Debtor will contribute their
cash flows to fund the Plan commencing on the Effective Date of the
Plan and continue to contribute through the date to Holders of
Allowed Class 1 through 2 Claims, in addition to Priority Claims,
receive the payments specified for in the Plan.
The Plan Proponents believe that the Debtor will have enough cash
on hand on the effective date of the Plan to pay all the claims and
expenses that are entitled to be paid on that date. The Debtor
estimates that, at the time of an Order of Confirmation, the Debtor
will have sufficient liquid assets to fund the Plan. The source of
Debtor's cash flow will come from the operation of Debtor's
businesses and salaried compensation.
A full-text copy of the Plan of Reorganization dated June 30, 2026
is available at https://urlcurt.com/u?l=qrjBOL from
PacerMonitor.com at no charge.
Counsel to the Debtor:
William Rivera Velez, Esq.
The Batista Law Group, PSC
Capital Center I
239 Ave Arterial de Hostos Suite 206
San Juan PR 00918
Telephone: (787) 620-2856
Facsimile: (787) 777-1589
About IES Elevator Group Corp.
IES Elevator Group Corp. is a company dedicated to the sale,
servicing, installation, and repair of all types of commercial and
residential elevators.
The Debtor sought protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S.
Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 26-01519) on April 1, 2026,
with $0 to $50,000 in assets and $500,001 to $1 million in
liabilities.
The Debtor tapped Jesus Enrique Batista Sanchez, Esq., at The
Batista Law Group, PSC as counsel and Manuel E. Feliciano Rios,
CPA, as financial consultant.
=============
U R U G U A Y
=============
BANCO BTG: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has removed the Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and Shareholder Support Rating (SSR)
of Banco BTG Pactual Uruguay S.A. (BTG Uruguay), formerly HSBC Bank
(Uruguay) S.A. (HSBC Uruguay), from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). At
the same time, Fitch has downgraded BTG Uruguay's Long-Term IDRs to
'BB+' from 'BBB+' and its SSR to 'bb' from 'bbb+'. The Rating
Outlook on the Long-Term IDRs is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed
the bank's Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb+'.
The rating actions on BTG Uruguay follow the completion of the
transaction announced in July 2025, under which BTG Pactual S.A.
acquired the former HSBC Uruguay, following approval of the
transaction by the Uruguayan authorities. BTG Uruguay is now
consolidated under its new controlling shareholder, BTG (IDR:
BB+/Stable), and has changed its legal name and commercial brand to
Banco BTG Pactual Uruguay S.A.
Based on Fitch's application of the "higher of" approach, BTG
Uruguay's ratings are now driven by its intrinsic financial
strength, as reflected in its VR, which is higher than the external
support from BTG, captured by BTG Uruguay's SSR.
Key Rating Drivers
Intrinsic Creditworthiness: BTG Uruguay's IDRs are now driven by
its Standalone Credit Profile as evidenced by its VR of 'bb+',
which is aligned with the implied VR. The VR was affirmed
reflecting the stable operating environment, sound asset quality,
solid performance, improved capitalization, and stable funding.
Fitch expects that the bank's standalone performance will remain
commensurate with current ratings over the medium term.
The bank's asset quality remains sound, supported by a
predominantly secured loan portfolio and a focus on corporate
clients and high-income individuals, which has contributed to
performance that compares favorably with peers. Profitability also
remains strong, driven by higher business volumes,
lower-than-expected impairment charges and efficient cost control,
although it may moderate slightly in the near term due to
transition-related expenses.
Capitalization has improved and is expected to strengthen further
following the acquisition, supported by BTG's record of
capitalizing acquired subsidiaries and the relatively small size of
the operation compared to BTG. Funding and liquidity remain
adequate, with metrics viewed as conservative and expected to stay
at comfortable levels despite potential declines in 2026 due to
HSBC's planned exit, although this is not considered material.
The outcome of the rating committee would have been the same
whether Fitch applied its methodology registered in Uruguay (from
Sept. 28, 2023) or its new "Bank Rating Methodology" published on
May 8, 2026.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
For the VR and IDRs
- Downward pressure on BTG Uruguay's ratings could stem from a
higher risk appetite that results in sustained declines in the
bank's FCC ratio below 9% and operating profit-to-RWAs ratio below
1.5%.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- BTG Uruguay's VR could eventually be upgraded if the bank
sustains its four-year operating profit-to-RWA ratio above 2.5% and
can improve and sustain its FCC-to-RWA ratio above 13%;
- A material improved business profile including better
diversification of the bank's balance sheet could also be positive
for creditworthiness.
BTG Uruguay's SRR of 'bb' reflects a moderate probability of
support being forthcoming from BTG Pactual, as indicated by its
parent's Long-Term IDRs of 'BB+'/Stable, despite the parent's
willingness to provide such support. Fitch views BTG Uruguay as a
strategically important subsidiary for BTG because Fitch foresees
business synergies with the parent as seen in other regional
subsidiaries. BTG Uruguay's role in the group highly influences the
bank's SSR.
- BTG Uruguay's SSR would be downgraded if Fitch perceives a
material weakening of the parent's ability or willingness to
support the bank, which appears unlikely in the medium term;
- A potential rating upgrade in the bank's SSR is subject to a
similar rating action on its ultimate parent's IDRs, or a Fitch
uplift of the subsidiary's role within the group.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
Banco BTG Pactual Uruguay's SSR is linked to Banco BTG Pactual
S.A.'s ratings.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Banco BTG Pactual
Uruguay S.A. LT IDR BB+ Downgrade BBB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Downgrade BBB+
Viability bb+ Affirmed bb+
Shareholder Support bb Downgrade bbb+
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
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USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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